HorseStreet Handicapper, v5
Transcription
HorseStreet Handicapper, v5
HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Note: To change the product logo for your own print manual or PDF, click "Tools > Manual Designer" and modify the print manual template. Title page 1 Use this page to introduce the product by HorseStreet Publications This is "Title Page 1" - you may use this page to introduce your product, show title, author, copyright, company logos, etc. This page intentionally starts on an odd page, so that it is on the right half of an open book from the readers point of view. This is the reason why the previous page was blank (the previous page is the back side of the cover) HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz All rights reserved. No parts of this work may be reproduced in any form or by any means - graphic, electronic, or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, taping, or information storage and retrieval systems - without the written permission of the publisher. Products that are referred to in this document may be either trademarks and/or registered trademarks of the respective owners. The publisher and the author make no claim to these trademarks. While every precaution has been taken in the preparation of this document, the publisher and the author assume no responsibility for errors or omissions, or for damages resulting from the use of information contained in this document or from the use of programs and source code that may accompany it. In no event shall the publisher and the author be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damage caused or alleged to have been caused directly or indirectly by this document. Printed: June 2008 in (whereever you are located) Publisher Special thanks to: Technical Editors All the people who contributed to this document, to mum and dad and grandpa, to my sisters and brothers and mothers in law, to our secretary Kathrin, to the graphic artist who created this great product logo on the cover page (sorry, don't remember your name at the moment but you did a great work), to the pizza service down the street (your daily Capricciosas saved our lives), to the copy shop where this document will be duplicated, and and and... ...enter name... ...enter name... Last not least, we want to thank EC Software who wrote this great help tool called HELP & MANUAL which printed this document. ...enter name... Managing Editor ...enter name... Cover Designer ...enter name... Team Coordinator ...enter name... ...enter Production name... 4 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Table of Contents Foreword 8 10 Part I Getting Started 1 Uh-Oh - Everything ................................................................................................................................... is Grayed-Out 10 2 Before We Begin ................................................................................................................................... 10 3 Introduction................................................................................................................................... 13 4 How to Use ................................................................................................................................... This Manual 15 5 Icons Used in ................................................................................................................................... This Manual 17 6 My Beliefs ................................................................................................................................... 19 21 Part II Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing 1 HSH Actually ................................................................................................................................... Two Programs 22 2 Downloading ................................................................................................................................... Past Performances 27 Download All.......................................................................................................................................................... Available PPs & Charts 30 3 Importing Past ................................................................................................................................... Performances 31 4 Importing Charts ................................................................................................................................... 36 5 Posting Races ................................................................................................................................... To The Model 39 Part III Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 1 Run HSH 45 ................................................................................................................................... 46 2 Setting Preferences ................................................................................................................................... 47 3 Setting MyTracks ................................................................................................................................... 50 4 Open a Previous ................................................................................................................................... Day 53 5 HQ ................................................................................................................................... 55 6 Handicapping ................................................................................................................................... a Race 63 7 SAR01 ................................................................................................................................... 75 8 CRC02 ................................................................................................................................... 81 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Contents 9 SAR02 5 ................................................................................................................................... 87 99 Part IV Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 1 CRC03 ................................................................................................................................... 100 2 SAR03 ................................................................................................................................... 112 3 CRC04 ................................................................................................................................... 121 Part V Sample Handicappers 142 1 Bill: Basic Value ................................................................................................................................... Handicapper 142 Part VI Articles and Papers 144 1 Handicapping ................................................................................................................................... vs. Exploitation 144 2 Pars vs. No-Pars ................................................................................................................................... 144 3 Reading List ................................................................................................................................... 144 4 Relative Value ................................................................................................................................... 144 Part VII How Do I... ? 146 1 Run HSH? ................................................................................................................................... 146 2 Run HSJ? ................................................................................................................................... 147 3 Use the Auto-Downloader? ................................................................................................................................... 148 4 Database Topics ................................................................................................................................... 149 Check Model.......................................................................................................................................................... Status? Manage Circuits? .......................................................................................................................................................... 149 150 5 Analyst Topics ................................................................................................................................... 150 WPS Betting.......................................................................................................................................................... Systems 150 6 Race Day Topics ................................................................................................................................... 151 HQ .......................................................................................................................................................... Open Day .......................................................................................................................................................... Psuedo Bet?.......................................................................................................................................................... Race Conditions .......................................................................................................................................................... Window Screen Layout .......................................................................................................................................................... Suggestions Results Window .......................................................................................................................................................... ©2007, David E. Schwartz 151 154 155 155 155 159 5 6 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 7 Race Window ................................................................................................................................... 162 Analyst Tab .......................................................................................................................................................... Probabilitities ......................................................................................................................................................... Tab Win Dutch ......................................................................................................................................................... Tab 165 166 168 8 Contact HorseStreet? ................................................................................................................................... 173 Part VIII Appendix 175 1 Handicapping ................................................................................................................................... Objects 175 2 Tracks List................................................................................................................................... 175 Part IX Glossary 177 1 Glossary A-D ................................................................................................................................... 177 2 Glossary E-H ................................................................................................................................... 178 3 Glossary I-L ................................................................................................................................... 179 4 Glossary M-P ................................................................................................................................... 180 5 Glossary Q-U ................................................................................................................................... 181 6 Glossary V-Z ................................................................................................................................... 183 Part X Racing Who's Who 185 1 Quirin, Dr. ................................................................................................................................... William L. 185 2 Cramer, Jim ................................................................................................................................... 185 Part XI Settings 187 1 E-S-P Definitions ................................................................................................................................... 187 2 Grades ................................................................................................................................... 188 3 Notepad Width ................................................................................................................................... 189 4 Odds Groups ................................................................................................................................... 190 5 Time Zone ................................................................................................................................... 191 6 Which HQ?................................................................................................................................... 192 7 Word Processor ................................................................................................................................... 193 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Contents Part XII New Features in H5 Index ©2007, David E. Schwartz 7 195 196 7 8 Foreword Foreword This is just another title page placed between table of contents and topics ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part I 10 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 1 Getting Started 1.1 Uh-Oh - Everything is Grayed-Out Don't panic! These buttons are grayed out because there is no "day open" for handicapping. First, we need to get some data in. That is coming up real soon. 1.2 Before We Begin Basic Assumptions We are going to get you up and running as quickly as possible. Let's start with How to use this manual. I believe that a picture really is worth a thousand words. Since I type very slowly, I'd rather take pictures. Therefore, this manual is, essentially, a picture book. That does not mean it has no commentary, but I have tried to keep the prose as limited as possible. (I said it was a picture book, not a coffee table book.) I am assuming you have done two things at this point: ©2007, David E. Schwartz Getting Started 1. You have installed the software I mean, how difficult is it to open the setup program and click "next, next, next... finish?" Besides, if you haven't installed the software, how much can you really expect to learn from this manual? If you really are having a problem with installation, just pick up the telephone and get some help. 2. You have opened an account with HDW, our data provider. If you have not yet done this, please contact them immediately and do so. HDW Inc. 100 Farmers Bank Square Suite 120 Georgetown, KY 40324 (502) 570-0333 [email protected] Assumptions About You, The Horseplayer I am operating under three assumptions about you. If these assumptions do not fit you, then your money will likely be ©2007, David E. Schwartz 11 12 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 wasted on HSH. We are simply not capable of spending the time necessary to educate you in the areas you are lacking without significant extra cost on your part. 1. You would typify yourself as at least an intermediate-level player in terms of your horse racing knowledge. Let's not over-complicate this. It means that you are not lost for conversation when someone throws around phrases like "pace call," "impact values," "speed ratings" and "Beyer numbers." Note: You don't have to know these definitions, but you need to not be intimidated by the fact that you don't know. You must also be willing to educate yourself in what you may be missing. 2. You have enough Windows knowledge that you will not be lost if you are told to "open MyComputer and find the H5 folder." Again, we are not asking much here. Simply put, if you are helpless when it comes to your computer, you cannot expect to find those answers in this manual or from us. It is simply not within our scope or repsonsibility. Note: There are plenty of places to get whatever computer knowledge you might need and I guarantee that you can get all you need for us with a 3-hour class at some place like Comp-USA or Best Buy. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Getting Started 1.3 Introduction Welcome to the HorseStreet Handicapper, the most powerful handicapping software available anywhere, at any price. What makes HSH such a powerful piece of software? All programs are designed from the developer's opinion of the best way to play the horses. HSH is no different in that respect. However, I have been designing professional-grade handicapping software since 1990. Simply put, my stuff is the best. What makes HSH so different is that I believe in flexibility. Most software leads you down the handicapping path laid out by the developer. If he is a pace handicapper that believes in contenders, paceline selection and model interpretation in that order then that is the way you are going to do it. HSH is a highly flexible software. With flexibility comes a degree of complexity. It is that complexity that makes the learning curve steeper than most handicapping products. Think of it this way: Most handicapping software leads you down a single path. That path is whatever approach the developer believed would sell. The good news is that you get up and running very quickly. The bad news is that in just a few days you have maxed out the flexibility of the software. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 13 14 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 You would like to do something just a little different, but can't. Think of HSH as a big circle. You are in the middle of the circle with arrows pointing in all directions. The key to understanding HSH is to not try to go in all directions at once. Rather, choose a direction - you can get plenty of help on that - and get started on the learning process. After you have a direction that looks promising, you can add more bells and whistles to your handicapping. The difficult part (for some players) is standing in the middle of that circle to begin with. I like to say that around day three most players will throw their hands in the air and ask, "What have I done?" By day seven or eight the new concepts will sink in and they say, "Ah - I get it now!" This is a pattern that we have seen over and over. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Getting Started Occasionally we get a new user who receives the software on Thursday and is at the track with it on Saturday. As rare as this is, even more rare is the user who honestly commits to learning HSH, bothers to attend a beginner's class or two and still cannot understand it. In fact, I have never had such a person as a client. So, roll up your sleeves and get ready for an adventure into horse racing. "The flag is up... and... they're off!" 1.4 How to Use This Manual I wish I could say, "Just read the Getting Started section of this manual and you can figure the rest out as you go along. In a way, I suppose you could but my telephone would just ring off the hook and the ultimate result would wind up with you and me reading the manual together. So, you might as well just accept the fact that you're going to have to dive into this yourself and figure it out. Note: That does not mean we just leave you stranded. It means that our job is to provide the teaching and your job is to provide the learning. If you are "lost," we'll help you "get found." There is a recommended path and even a few shortcuts you can take. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 15 16 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 New Users If you are a new user you should begin with Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing and continue with the tutorials in order until you feel that you've got a good grasp of HSH's functionality and are ready to try something specific. The handicapping tutorials are designed to teach features of the programming as well as viable approaches that you may wish to expand upon later. As you progress through these handicapping tutorials, you will learn about Analysts, Experts, Filters, PickMaster, Objects, IV Tables and a whole lot more. I would strongly suggest just diving into one of the higherlevel tutorials before you are ready. Try to be patient as you work through these tutorials and you will learn all you need to know in an amazingly short period of time. Experienced Users If you are an experienced HSH user and just trying to figure out the new features in H5, just peruse the more advanced tutorials for anything that strikes you as interesting and dive ©2007, David E. Schwartz Getting Started in. Don't forget the Articles and Papers section. 1.5 Icons Used in This Manual If you could see me writing this manual, you'd see me sitting at my computer muttering to myself. It is just a huge project. As I wrote it, I realized that reading and digesting the material was almost as big a job as the writing. The icons I have chosen should make that job a little easier. Here is a list of icons I used in this manual: Tips and Tricks are extra information - something that may not be absolutely necessary to know at that point but will come in handy later. Warnings are just that: things that you need to be careful about or common mistakes that people make. Whenever you see the Remember This icon, be sure to make at least a mental note of what you read because it will either be very important later or you will use it often. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 17 18 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Make Sure That You Get This usually means that the section you are reading must be understood because without it you will be lost later. The Logical Question icon is an attempt on my part to play mind reader with you by anticipating your question. Open Web Page means just that: open the page in your browser. Note: Generally, it is a good idea if you open the web page in its own tab or browser window. This way you will still be able to read this document. The Do This Now icon means to take whatever action you are instructed to do. The format for a Do It Now Command is big/bold/underline. Example: Run HSJ The Important Concept icon is almost interchangeable with "Get This" but generally denotes something on a more philosophical level as opposed to understanding how the program operates. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Getting Started The New icon indicates something that is new in this version of HSH. When you see this mug staring at you it means he has something to say. Since he is in possession of some amount of knowledge on the subject at hand, it would be a good idea if you were to heed his advice. Note: A rather handsome chap, don't you think? Amazingly, he looks just like my father and even more like my father's son. 1.6 My Beliefs Enter topic text here. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 19 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part II Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing 2 Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing This tutorial covers all facets of data management in HSH. Now, I know that downloading and importing data is not what you're here for - you want to HANDICAP! - but trust me on this... you really need to understand this stuff first. That's why I put it into this tutorial. Agenda 1.HSH Actually Two Programs 2.Downloading Past Performances 3.Download All Available PPs & Charts 4.Importing Past Performances 5.Importing Charts 6.Posting Races To The Model ©2007, David E. Schwartz 21 22 2.1 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 HSH Actually Two Programs The HorseStreet Handicapper is actually two programs: One to handicap with and the other to manage data import. Make sure you understand the data flow completely! HSJ, or The HorseStreet Junction, is the program used to get data into the system. That's what we're going to discuss here. Do not be surprised if you receive this error: ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing This is because HSJ and HSH cannot be run at the same time. (They share a bunch of files and could easily mess something up.) So, if HSH is running and you try to run HSJ, HSH will be forced closed. The same thing happens the other way around. It is always a better idea to close the program yourself. HSH Data Flow ©2007, David E. Schwartz 23 24 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 The data from Handicapper's Data Warehouse (HDW) always downloads into the same folder: c:\Hdw_Hsh. Past Performance Files ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing 25 HDW Past Performance files contain raw data in a binary format. You cannot read or translate these files with any other program than HSJ. These files are "imported" into HSH daily files using the HSJ program. Note: These files are commonly referred to as "Previous Day" files because they are stored in the PrevDays folder. In the HSH data structure, all the races for one day are stored in a single zip file. This allows the user to easy switch from one race to another while managing his playing day. Chart Files ©2007, David E. Schwartz 26 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 The HDW Chart files are imported into the current HSH Previous Day files. HSH Daily Files With Results ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing Daily files with results may then be added to the HSH database. 2.2 Downloading Past Performances All our data comes from Handicapper's Data Warehouse - "HDW." We download the Past Performances (PPs) and Charts manually via the internet using our browser of choice. A broadband connection is imperative. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 27 28 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing You can download as many as 75 files at once, so, if you are behind a day or two, you can usually catch up in a single download. Note that the browser always puts the files in the same place (so that HSJ can find them): ©2007, David E. Schwartz 29 30 2.2.1 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Download All Available PPs & Charts Download All Available PPs and Charts from Handicapper's Data Warehouse now. Note: Do not continue until you have done this! You can always find the HDW link by clicking the icon on the end of the HSJ toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing 2.3 Importing Past Performances 1. Run HSJ. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 31 32 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Note: If you have not already done so, import some PPs and charts from HDW. Download All Available PPs & Charts 2. Click PPs button on the toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing ©2007, David E. Schwartz 33 34 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 The settings on this screen are critical! Make sure that your settings look like mine! In this example I am importing 5 days of races. The "Go" ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing button gets things started. This assumes that you have already downloaded these days from HDW! You may import as many days as you have downloaded, but only within a single year. Note: In other words, you may not import through Dec. 31/ Jan. 1 3. Set your window to import at least a few days of races and hit the "Go" button. The system will run for awhile - you can watch the progress - and when it is finished a "daily file" will have been created for each individual day you imported. When the import has been completed, you will see this dialog box appear: ©2007, David E. Schwartz 35 36 2.4 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Importing Charts Importing charts works just like importing Past Performances: 1. Download from HDW 2. Import using HSJ (Notice how we're real big on acronyms?) 1. Run HSJ. (if it isn't already running.) Note: If you have not already done so, download some PPs and charts from HDW, then import the PPs. Download All Available PPs & Charts ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing Importing Past Performances 2. Click the "Charts" button on the toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 37 38 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Set the dates to reflect the days you have already imported PPs for and click the "Go" button. In the normal course of using the system, you will (logically) import yesterday's PPs, today's PPs, then yesterday's charts. That is why the system defaults to precisely those settings when you import PPs. Whatever dates were set in the import PPs process will be held in memory for the import charts process. In other words, normally, these two dates will be yesterday and today. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing Since you don't yet have today's charts available (Boy, what I could do with just a single day of those.), the "day -1" button will easily change the date to what you need: yesterday-to-yesterday. The import-charts process runs faster than importing PPs because there isn't as much work to do. Once the process is complete, you will see this dialog box: 2.5 Posting Races To The Model Model is our word for the queryable HSH database. It is what drives many of our handicapping approaches. After a race has results, it is ready to be posted to the database. Many of our users have models that go back as far as June, 2001 and contain more than 350,000 races! ©2007, David E. Schwartz 39 40 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Even if you do not play a track, you should (logically) download it every day. The time may come when you want that data and, you are paying for it, after all. With today's high-speed internet connections it just makes good sense to take it all. 1. Run HSJ. (if it isn't already running.) Note: If you have not already done so, download some PPs and charts from HDW, then import the PPs. Download All Available PPs & Charts Importing Past Performances Importing Charts ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing 2. Click "Post" button on the toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 41 42 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 There is not much to this screen other than the dates. Just make sure they are right and click "Go." Unlike importing PPs or charts, races may be posted from any date to any other date. That is, you may even import multiple years. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 1: Downloading and Importing The posting process runs much faster than importing. When the process is complete you will, once again, see a dialog box. How can I tell how many races have been posted to the database? That's easy. Just Check the Model Status. When you do, you will immediately see the races we have posted. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 43 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part III Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 3 Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH In this tutorial you will get your first glimpse of The HorseStreet Handicapper. First, we'll make sure that the program is setup correctly and then we'll explore the basic navigation of the program through a simple analyst. We'll even handicap a few races. Agenda Run HSH Setting Preferences Setting MyTracks Open a Previous Day HQ Handicapping a Race: Contenders SAR01: Simple Handicapping CRC02: The Results Window SAR02: The MyHandicapping button Okay, so we're coming along here. In the next tutorial we'll pick up where we left off here so remember your place. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 45 46 3.1 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Run HSH 1. Run HSH. Look for the HSH shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run HSH. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 3.2 47 Setting Preferences In this section we will only discuss the Preference items that need to be changed now. There are other settings that you may be interested in which are outside the scope of this tutorial. Check out the Settings chapter. Remember, grayed-out is normal because we do not yet have a day open. 2. Open the Preferences screen. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 48 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 This opens up the Preferences screen. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 49 3. Set the time zone for you. Note: As the tooltip says, the Time Zone Adjustment is the hours ahead (or behind-for those of you in Hawaii and Australia) California time. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 50 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 4. Set Switches Tab For now, just make the screen look like this. If you wish to delve deeper into the settings, check out these links: Which HQ? Field Scaling MyTracks When you have completed these changes, click the "OK" button in the lower-right corner to save them. 3.3 Setting MyTracks You will recall that we just set the MyTracks system to "on" in ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH Preferences. Next we are going to set up a few of your favorite tracks so that when you are setting up your playing day, the system can pare down the races shown in the Handicapper's HQ. 5. Open the Tracks List. This is a very wide screen and quite busy. We will concentrate on what we need to change in this tutorial. You can find more ©2007, David E. Schwartz 51 52 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 information on the Tracks List in the appendix. Our primary concern here is turning on the tracks which will be referred to as "MyTracks." And there isn't much to it. This button is known as a "toggle." If a setting is "off" clicking the button will turn it "on." If the setting is currently "on," clicking it will turn it off. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 53 Learn this toggle-thing right now because we use it all over the program. 6. Turn Crc, Dmr and Sar on and turn AP off. Notice how you can show only the tracks set as "My Track" with the check box in the upper right. That is all for now. In a later section we will work on other track settings. 3.4 Open a Previous Day The next step is to open a day that we have previously imported. Since I have no idea when you began downloading I have included two days ©2007, David E. Schwartz 54 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 from September, 2007 in your installation. We are going to handicap September 1st, 2007, so let's open that day. 7. Open September 1st, 2007. There isn't much to this. Just type in the date and click "Go." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH Look how things come to life! No more grayed-out menu items! Let's go to the races! Notes: You can find more information about Open Day. 3.5 HQ Time to set up our race day. In this step we are going to tag the races we are interested in handicapping from our three favorite tracks: Crc, Dmr and Sar. 8. Open the Handicapper's Headquarters. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 55 56 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH The HQ begins by loading all of today's races and setting them to "watch." The first thing we need to do is set the races to be only those from the tracks we are interested in. 9. Switch to the "By RaceID" tab. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 57 58 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 10. Click the "Only My Tracks" button. 11. Check the "Watched Only" box. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 59 60 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 12. Switch back to the "By Post" tab. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 61 62 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH Now our racing day is set. Notes: For more information see HQ. 3.6 Handicapping a Race Now it's time to jump right into the handicapping! We will be using a simple "analyst" to do our handicapping for us. In future tutorials we will delve into how analysts work and make our own, but for now, I just want you to see how easy it is to get good selections from HSH. And before anyone jumps to the assumption that I have seeded these results... please, give me a little credit. First, I know that you are not so shallow as to become convinced that a particular approach works based upon a few races. Second, I will save anyone the trouble by simply telling you that I would be very surprised if this particular analyst was profitable in the long term. CRC01 - September 1st, 2007 ©2007, David E. Schwartz 63 64 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 12. Open the CRC 1st race. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH ©2007, David E. Schwartz 65 66 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 With the CRC01 race selected, click the "Open Race" button. The Race Window for this race will open. As you can see, there is a lot to this window. We're going to cover a little of it here - just what we need. We'll get to the rest later. But, if you've a mind to dig deeper right now, just check out the entries in the "How Do I...?" section titled, ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 67 Race Window. Contenders First, we designate two different kinds of contenders: "C" or Prime Contenders The top 3 or 4 horses in each field based upon field size. (3 in a field of 7 or less) "f" or Front Half This represents the horses that are not prime contenders but still fall into the " front half." Technically, our definition of "front half" is ½ field plus 1 horse. Notice that we do not actually select contenders. They are simply the top horses in the field for probability. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 68 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Our experience is that when one looks at field-size specific, rank, impact value tables, there is a distinct drop in IV at precisely ½field+1 rank. It is so noticeable that we carried it over into our handicapping. Our expectation is that between 84% and 92% of the races will be won by FH horses. So, in this race we believe that the 4 and 5 horses have very little chance of winning the race; that perhaps even their 9% and 2% probabilities are over-rated a bit. We'll begin our elimination process by tossing the 4 & 5. Our experience also indicates that most of the winners come from our top 3 horses, regardless of whether or not the field warrants a 4th contender. So, we'll just eliminate that 4th contender from consideration as well. Note: We are actually considering re-defining the word "contender" to mean "top 3" instead of the current definition. See the "Gr" column along the right edge? ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 69 That column is the "Grade" column. The primary purpose of grades are to allow us to sort the better bets to the top without splitting hairs too finely. That is, suppose we want to make our selections based upon $Net and Probability. Further suppose we have two horses: Horse A Horse B $2.12 $2.11 9% A32% A- In the strictest sense of the word, Horse A is the better bet. But do we really want to give up 23% winners in order to gain an $0.01 of $net? I think not. Instead we introduce the concept of "grades." Since both of these animals fall into the same grade category, "A-", we can sort by grade and hit rate and accomplish what we desire. So, what we actually see in this race is: ©2007, David E. Schwartz 70 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Relative Value- Betting the best $net among your contenders is far better than betting the worst $net among your contenders. Now, I know that this does not sound earth shattering but consider the implications for a moment. Imagine you have run an IV Table of horses that ranked 1st-3rd for Projected Speed Rating (PSR) and found that the group as a whole had a $net of $1.90. Some of those horses were really "bad bets" (because they lost) and others were "good bets" (because they won). Of course, that is easy to determine after the race but more difficult to determine before the race is run. Is it safe to assume that the best bet (of the subset) in each individual race (using a criteria other than PSR) would outperform the worst (of the subset) in the long run? In other words, if I consistently pick the best $net/grade horses over the worst $net/grades will I be better off than if I played them all? The answer is, of course, "yes." That is Relative Value. The degree to which our handicapping approach works in this kind of race determines whether or not our strategy will be profitable in the long run. So, in this race we want the best 2 bets of our top 3. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 71 That would be 1 & 3. Understand that we are not saying that the 6 cannot win. We are saying that we'll bet against him winning because he is the most likely bad bet among our contenders. 13. Open the Results window from the toolbar to see the results for this race. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 72 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Not that it was a tough race, but our contenders did well. 14. Click the "Finish" button in the Race Window to close it and remove the race from the HQ list. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH ©2007, David E. Schwartz 73 74 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 75 When you click back into the HQ you will see the CRC01 race is removed from the list. We're ready for more races! 3.7 SAR01 We'll go through this next race quickly and then begin adding features to our handicapping. 15. Open the SAR01 race from the HQ. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 76 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH ©2007, David E. Schwartz 77 78 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 79 You know, there is a natural inclination to just want to bet all those A+ horses and forget the rest. Listen... if it was that easy, everyone who made an odds line would simply capitalize on it by playing all their 5/2's that go off at 3/1 or higher. Ever notice how that just doesn't seem to work? So, here we are, isolating instead on just those top 3 horses and trying to pick the best of those. Be aware that these first two races have both been races where the top 3 picks were also the top 3 public choices. That is usually the earmark of a race that is not the best place to look for plays. But we'll talk about that later. Let's get down to business in this race. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 80 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 We settle on the 11 and the 1 only to get beaten (again) by our other contender. Don't forget to click "Finish" to close the race window. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 3.8 CRC02 16. Open the CRC02 from the HQ. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 81 82 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH ©2007, David E. Schwartz 83 84 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 85 Alright! Finally a race to get excited about! Look at the difference between this race and the previous 2 races in terms of betting opportunity. Here we have a race where the favorite and the 3rd choice are not among our top 3! So, we put our money on the 7 & 9... 17. Open the Results window by clicking the "WPS" button on the toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 86 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 If you can find a spot on the screen for it, leave the Results window open all the time. Just clicking within the window will switch it to the Open Race. Now, this is what I am talking about! A highly playable race - what I would call an "A+ race," but we'll get to that later - and we score with a cold trifecta. Don't forget to close the Race window by clicking "Finish." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 3.9 87 SAR02 17. Open SAR02 in the HQ. Note: I am sure you know how to do this but if not, check back to the previous race for a picture. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 88 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 89 This race presents an interesting problem for the handicapper. There are 3 firsttime starters (FTS) in this race. This particular analyst simply is not prepared to handle them very well. His approach rates them so poorly that they come up with zero probabilities and that just cannot be right. So, what are we to do about this? How about we add our own handicapping to this race on these 3 horses? 18. Click the My Handicapping button. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 90 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 91 This feature is very easy to use. In this case we want to adjust the probabilities of the 3 FTS in the race (3, 4 & 7)... ©2007, David E. Schwartz 92 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ... but how much should we adjust them? What probabilities should they be given? I don't know and I really don't want to do any handicapping, so what is the answer? This is a very common problem. You are handicapping a race and you really just don't have an opinion about a horse beyond the fact that you don't have any reason to bet him. Look at Golden Weekend. He is 5/2. Now, we could assign him a win percentage based upon what 5/2 horses normally do, but FTS probably under perform the average 5/2 horse. We could do a study of 5/2 FTS and plug in that probability. we could even do a study of 5/2 FTS at SAR and plug that number in. Here is the solution: We will get a rough idea of what FTS-2yr olds do at SAR when they go off at approximately 5/2. (We'll cover how to do this in another tutorial.) ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 93 As you can see, they hold their own quite nicely. However, before we grab that 31% figure and pop it in as his probability, consider that if he gets bet down to 2/1 shouldn't his win percentage go up? Instead, let's use his $net and let the software do the work! If we plug in $1.95 as his $net, the system will always figure out what his win probability must be to fulfill a $1.95 return at his current odds. Number 4, Sir Jock, is currently 9/1. That translates to a $1.01 $net. Note: The categories in the table end at the odds shown. Thus, the "9/1" category includes 7.00/1 up to 9.99/1. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 94 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Number 7, Aqab, is 10/1, a better category, at $1.72. 19. Enter those values into the "My $Nets" column and check the "Use Locks" box. 20. Click "Save." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 95 When we return to the handicapping window we see that nothing has changed. But it will. 21. Click the "Hcp" button. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 96 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Well, the picture of this race has surely changed. We went from a race that looked like a grade A race - with a 5/2 horse below-the-fold (as I call it) to a less attractive, yet more likely outcome. And who are the logical plays in this race? Why the 3 & 8 are obvious. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 2: A First Look At HSH 97 22. Close the Race window with "Finish." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part IV Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 4 Tutorial 3: More Handicapping As we continue to progress through these races, we will add more and more power, both to the handicapping and the program features. Agenda Okay, so we're coming along here. In the next tutorial we'll pick up where we left off here so remember your place. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 99 100 4.1 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 CRC03 We've played 4 races thus far and our performance has been excellent. I have been investing $20 in each race and dutching our plays. This is from our Studies window - where I have had the system automatically capture our bets. We'll get to that in the next tutorial. For now, let's get back to the handicapping. If HSH is not running, please run it now. Your HQ should look like this: ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping ©2007, David E. Schwartz 101 102 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 1. Open CRC03 in the HQ. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 103 Have you noticed that we have handicapped 4 races without even looking at the conditions of the races? Let's remedy that right now. 2. Click the "Race Cnd" button on the toolbar. There isn't much to this window - it's just that: a window that shows the conditions for the current race. The cool thing about this window (and most of the others in HSH) is that you place them somewhere on your screen and whenever you click inside the window the data switches to the race with focus. Back to the CRC03. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 104 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Look at that 3/5 favorite! We don't think much of him. I know by now you've got the handicapping approach I am using whipped - after all, there isn't much to that. Time to move on to betting. 3. Switch to the Win Dutch tab and then click the Reset button in the lower-right corner. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 105 Let's take a closer look at this screen. First, the upper portion of the Text Box: ©2007, David E. Schwartz 106 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Now this screen can be a little confusing until you realize that you are looking at two lists. The list on the left, known as the "In List," contains all the horses you have bet in this race thus far. They are "in." (As of now we have not bet anyone in this race so the In List is blank. The list on the right, the "Out List," are the horses still available to bet. They are "out." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 107 So, what we want to do is to slice and dice the list on the right while we add horses. 4. Click the "Reset" button just to be sure that things are at the starting point. Here is my betting strategy: · Consider only my top 3 probability horses. · Play the best 2 grades of those horses. · Break ties based upon win probability. · Bet $20 in each race. · Dutch the 2 horses so that no matter which wins I will get back the same amount. · If the best bet is below 1/2 I want to play him as a single. · If the 2nd bet is so low as to take me below 1/2 (which is my target) I want to make sure I get 1/2 if the top horse wins. Here is how we accomplish this: 5. Check the "Show What" box to "Cont." ©2007, David E. Schwartz 108 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 See how the blank lines serve as a remind that there are horses being passed by? See how the current sort is by grade? In this case we have all we need to know right in front of us. Our top 3, sorted by grade. And they are at healthy odds so we do not need to worry about returning to little. 6. Click the "Bet Top" button. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 109 See how the 7 horse moved over to the Bet List and was removed from the Available List? See how the entire $20 was wagered on him? Now we need to bet the new top horse. 7. Click the "Bet Top" button again. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 110 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 See how the 1 horse has been added to the list and the money re-distributed? Let's look at the rest of the text box now. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 111 That is all there is to it. Oh. Except for the results to this race. Well, we don't cash but certainly had the right idea, especially with that 3/5 favorite that we played against. (This is a perfect opportunity to discuss the Play Against Favorite strategy but I am going to leave that for another chapter. Look it up now if you'd care to - the logic is irrefutable.) Don't forget to click "Finish" in the lower right corner. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 112 4.2 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 SAR03 In this race we will look at correcting an obviously bad assessment of a horse much like we did in the SAR02, the FTS race from Tutorial 2. 8. Open the SAR03 race from the HQ. The handicapping of this race seems so simple, but here is a 2/1 favorite at the very bottom. This simply cannot be right. Our goal with HSH is to automate as much of the handicapping as possible. (Okay - in my case I automate all of the handicapping.) But a more important goal is to get it right. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 113 Remember that we are using a simple (and perhaps a little weak) handicapping approach - one that leaves things out. As you saw in the SAR02 race it did a very poor job of handicapping first-time starters. That is because it is treating FTS just like any other horse. Since a FTS has no races, it has no speed ratings. Where does a horse with no speed ratings rank for speed ratings? At the very bottom of all the horses that have speed ratings. The favorite in this race, Vitruvius, is not a FTS. In fact, he has raced twice, and won both races: The issue is that the handicapping approach we are using does not like this horse very much. (This particular analyst is uses two of our most powerful factors, Rtg and PSR.) ©2007, David E. Schwartz 114 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Understand I am not apologizing for the numbers in this race - the favorite did not win - but that is not the point. The point is... There has not been a favorite since the beginning of time that was only a $0.17 $net! The concept I am addressing here is called "Not That Bad" ( NTB). When people talk about "throwing out a favorite," they generally mean "I don't think the favorite is a good bet" or "I don't want to bet the favorite" or "I don't think the favorite is worth 4/5." That does not mean the favorite cannot win the race a significant part of the time. Listen, anyone can win the race. We are talking about who is likely to win the race and, more specifically, how likely are they to do so? ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 115 As a general rule of thumb, when you see favorites (or any low-priced horse for that matter) with $nets under $1.20, they are probably very underrated. A logical question you might ask is, "Since I am not going to play this horse anyway, why should I bother to make any correction?" The answer is that since this horse is underrated, his probability points have been redistributed among the other horses. In other words, they are overrated. Permit me to give you a great way to handle such a situation. Simply lock in a $net of $1.20 for this horse and let it be. 9. Click the "My Handicapping" button. Make the 4 horse $1.20. Check the "Use Locks" box and "Save." ©2007, David E. Schwartz 116 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Don't forget to re-handicap the race. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 117 The top three are the 3-4-6 when we had the 3-6-8 before. But the important difference is that the race is probably more accurately rated than before. And, when one looks at this race they no longer see the tremendous betting opportunity that they saw before with a favorite who was a virtual "throw out." 10. Switch to the Win Dutch tab. 11. Click "Reset" and "Cont." ©2007, David E. Schwartz 118 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 119 Time to make our bets. But we have a small problem. Recall that we only want to consider our top 3 horses. You can eyeball the probabilities and see that the 8 is the 4th-best horse for probability and, therefore, not to be considered. How do we bet from the top down and bypass the 8? The easiest way is to bet the top 3 and then remove the 8. 12. Click "Bet Top" 3 times. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 120 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 So now we have an extra horse. We need to remove the 8. That is what the "Action" section (right-edge) is for and it is as easy as 1-2-3. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 121 13. Cancel the 8 using the above steps. And now things are as they should be. But there's got to be a better way! There is. Automatic betting. Next race. Oh. Click Finish on the SAR03. 4.3 CRC04 This is an important part of the tutorial because it is where we introduce a concept OOU. (What's a "concept?" You'll have to take the tutorial to find out.) ©2007, David E. Schwartz 122 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 14. Open the CRC04 race from the HQ. 15. Open the Race Conditions (from the toolbar). ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 123 Uh-oh. More of those pesky first-time starters. Remember how last time I showed you an IV Table of FTS at different odds levels? Well, this time we're going to take a look at how I actually studied those races. (We're not going to spend a lot of time on it that is for another tutorial down the road.) Let's go look at a Filter, shall we? 16. Click the "Filt" button on the toolbar to open the Filters browse. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 124 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Note: Your browse will probably show more filters than seen here as more will be added as this manual is expanded. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 125 Let's look inside this "filter" to see how it works. 17. Click the "Change" button to open the filter. Follow along on the tabs as we go. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 126 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Essentially, a filter is a template for filtering races from our database. The template layout makes it extremely easy to find the types of races you are looking for. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping Here we have set date range, circuit, track... ©2007, David E. Schwartz 127 128 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ... surface, distance range... ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 129 ... race type and age. 18. Click "OK" to close the filter. When we ran the filter against the database we found 418 races. Do not run this Filter or the IV Tables we are about to discuss! These IV Tables were run against a large database of over 340,000 races! If you run them against your current database you will find far fewer races and destroy the data in these tables! You may certainly look into the IV Table structures and follow along but do not run these filters! 19. With the CRC.D.sp.MS.2 filter selected, click the IV Tables tab. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 130 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 131 This is how I get the numbers to plug into the "questionable" horses. Do you have to do this to win? Probably not. But if you want the best answers, you look for the right data. Back to our race... We've got to work on these FTS and there is also a problem with the favorite being way too low as well. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 132 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 20. Click the "My Handicapping" button. I have punched in the appropriate $nets from the IV categories above. Remember that each category ends with that odds range. Thus, the 9/1 category actually starts where the previous category ends (7.00:1) and goes to the top of 9/1 (9.99:1). 21. Punch in the values above, "save" and "Hcp." ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 133 Well, things are looking better but there is still a huge problem with this 1/3 favorite. Listen... odds-on horses are typically the most under-bet horses at the track (statistically speaking). We've obviously got this one wrong. Concept: Odds-on are Underrated! (OOU) This means that the very nature of odds-on horses is that they will be underrated. This is because even horses that are first for everything cannot get enough credit for how good they are. Look at this horse on our composite screen... ©2007, David E. Schwartz 134 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ... Even though he is much the best, it is just almost impossible for an odds-on horse to get enough credit using a simple strategy. Remember, we are using a simple strategy here. As we build more complex strategies, we can address this. (That is for later tutorials.) Meantime, we need to address this problem. How do we do it? We ask the question, "How does an odds-on horse usually do in a race like this one?" and we answer it with the appropriate IV table. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 135 Remember the filter we were working with that matched this race? (CRC.D.sp.MS.2) Well, this is the IV Table for Favorites (no FTS) at the different odds ranges. I have sub-totaled the odds-on horses below. I would never wager against a horse that looks like this one does in the Composites (i.e. almost all 1's) without punching in the IV Table $net. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 136 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 So, back to the My Handicapping to lock in this guy at $2.14. He becomes virtually an automatic play. 22. Open My Handicapping and correct the $net on the 1, save, hcp. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 137 Boy, we are a long way from where we started. And the best is yet to come because Tripplite becomes a single! ©2007, David E. Schwartz 138 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Now, I know that there will be people reading this thinking, "What's the big deal? So, you picked a 1/3 horse." But it is a big deal. We singled a horse for $20 and got back $26 instead of losing $20. That is a $26 turn around. You want to know where your ROI goes? It is by assuming that horses like this are not good bets or, worse yet, are always bad bets. So, when does a horse need to be adjusted? And what about the 6 & 8 horses who got adjusted down to a ridiculously low $net? Do we adjust everyone in the field? My experience is that you begin adjusting from the obviously wrong horses... · FTS given near-zero chances · Odds-on horses that have lots of 1's in Composites · If you haven't adjusted anyone yet, consider low-priced "zeroes" ©2007, David E. Schwartz Tutorial 3: More Handicapping 139 And remember, just because a low-odds horse has a low $net does not mean he needs to be adjusted. He needs to be adjusted when, like Tripplite, he is as good as he can be and still does not show as good enough. And what if Tripplite hadn't looked so good? Back in the CRC01 race... ... Yelt was 6/5. We did not adjust him. That's because he wasn't all 1's. (He did win the race, but we had no reason to believe he was underrated.) What about Mannington in the CRC03? ©2007, David E. Schwartz 140 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 He was on top but not as impressive as Tripplite. 3 2's, a couple of blanks and a 4 in PSR! We did right to not adjust him. Finish the race. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part V 142 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 5 Sample Handicappers 5.1 Bill: Basic Value Handicapper ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part VI 144 6 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Articles and Papers Enter topic text here. 6.1 Handicapping vs. Exploitation 6.2 Pars vs. No-Pars 6.3 Reading List 6.4 Relative Value ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part VII 146 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 7 How Do I... ? 7.1 Run HSH? 1. Run HSH. Look for the HSH shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run HSH. Do not be surprised if you receive this error: ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? This is because HSJ and HSH cannot be run at the same time. (They share a bunch of files and could easily mess something up.) So, if HSJ is running and you try to run HSH, HSJ will be forced closed. The same thing happens the other way around. It is always a better idea to close the program yourself. 7.2 Run HSJ? 1. Run HSJ. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 147 148 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Look for the HSJ shortcut on your desktop. Open it to run HSJ. 7.3 Use the Auto-Downloader? Enter topic text here. ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 7.4 Database Topics 7.4.1 Check Model Status? 1. Run HSJ Run HSJ? 2. Click the "Model" (Mdl) button on the toolbar. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 149 150 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 7.4.2 Manage Circuits? 7.5 Analyst Topics 7.5.1 WPS Betting Systems ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 7.6 Race Day Topics 7.6.1 HQ Post Time Tab ©2007, David E. Schwartz 151 152 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? RaceID Tab ©2007, David E. Schwartz 153 154 7.6.2 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Open Day ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 7.6.3 Psuedo Bet? 7.6.4 Race Conditions Window 7.6.5 Screen Layout Suggestions Listen... you guys are spending a significant amount of money to play the races. You've got costs for downloads. You purchase books and instructional materials. You even spent money on great software. Why would you go cheap on the computer system you use to handicap? ©2007, David E. Schwartz 155 156 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Do yourself a favor - buy yourself a dual-head video card and a pair of wide, 22-inch monitors. You can get that whole setup for around $700. Too much? How about a pair of 20" wide monitors from Costco? That is around $400. Still too much? Fine. How about a pair of 19" standard monitors? That's about $300. The dual-head video card is between $40-120, depending upon what you buy and where you shop. These are just ideas. You will certainly find what is most comfortable for you. 2 Computers, 2 Wide Monitors (1680 x 1050) ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 1 Computer, 2 Wide Monitors (1680 x 1050) ©2007, David E. Schwartz 157 158 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 1 Monitor (normal or wide) ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 7.6.6 Results Window ©2007, David E. Schwartz 159 160 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? ©2007, David E. Schwartz 161 162 7.7 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Race Window T o ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? p L ef t ©2007, David E. Schwartz 163 164 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 T o p Ri g ht ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? B ot to m 7.7.1 Analyst Tab ©2007, David E. Schwartz 165 166 7.7.1.1 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Probabilitities Tab This is a very busy window. First, let's concentrate on the columns within the text box. T ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? e xt B o x ©2007, David E. Schwartz 167 168 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 B ut to n s 7.7.1.2 Win Dutch Tab ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? Upper-Left ©2007, David E. Schwartz 169 170 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Upper-Right ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? Right Edge ©2007, David E. Schwartz 171 172 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 "Actions" · · · · · Ret$ - Make bet on Prg return Amount. Ret% - Make bet on Prg return percent of total bet in race equal to Amount. Bet$ - Bet Amount on Prg. Bet% - Bet percentage of total bet in race equal to Amount. Cancel - Cancel the bet on Prg. ©2007, David E. Schwartz How Do I... ? 7.8 Contact HorseStreet? HorseStreet Publications 1425 Bronze Canyon Drive Reno, NV 89521 Telephone Fax emails Office Hours Mon-Thu Fri (775) 825.0260 (775) 825.4109 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] 8am to 4:30pm 8am to 10am Note: Okay, the truth is that we are open way more often than this, but these are our posted hours. If you have sent us an email... We generally respond very quickly to emails, often in a matter of minutes and rarely more than a few hours*. We never ignore anyone. If you have sent an email and not received a reply from us in 72 hours, your email probably wound up in a SPAM folder. Please call us so that we may put you on our "notspam" list as well as address your issue. *The only exception would be if we are on vacation which is always posted on our BBS (in announcements). ©2007, David E. Schwartz 173 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part VIII Appendix 8 Appendix 8.1 Handicapping Objects Enter topic text here. 8.2 Tracks List ©2007, David E. Schwartz 175 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part IX Glossary 9 Glossary 9.1 Glossary A-D $net $Net is the average return per $2 wager. The actual formula is: $net= TotalReturn ÷ TotalWagers This assumes that all wagers are for $2.00. An alternative formula is: $net= TotalReturn ÷ TotalWagered x 2 analyst An analyst is a handicapping device designed to facilitate an automatic or semi-automatic handicapping process. An analyst may contain handicapping objects, IV Tables, screens and other handicapping tools. Concept A Concept is an approach or an idea that adds value to your handicapping. All concepts reduce to an abbreviation such as "OOU" (Odds-On Underrated). This allows us to develop an HSH vernacular. contenders The top 4 horses in a field (by probability). Top 3 in a field of 7 or less. CSV Comma separated variable. A file format compatible with Excel and many other programs. Also referred to as "comma-delimited." CSV Export Dutch Dutching is a method of determining the correct amount to wager on each of multiple wagers, so that no matter which ©2007, David E. Schwartz 177 178 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 wager wins one returns the same amount of money. 9.2 Glossary E-H E-S-P Refers to "Early-Sustained-Presser" running style designations. In our system there are 5 designated running styles: 1 2 3 4 5 ES Points Field Scaling FH Filter front half grades E EP P M C Early Early-Presser Presser Mid-Pack Closer 7-8 pts 4-6 pts 2-3 pts 1 pt 0 pts Early Speed Points. A system for assigning points based upon recent 1st-call running positions and lengths behind to determine who the likely front runners in the race are. Developed by Dr. William Quirin. Field Scaling is a proprietary method of assigning points to rankings which takes into account both field size and ordinal rank. See "front half." A template for filtering races from the database. Stands for "front half of the field plus one." In a 10-horse field this would be 6 horses; in a 7-horse field it would be 4 horses. Grades have several meanings in HSH but the most common meaning addresses the relative profitability of the horses on a $net scale. The $net thresholds for each grade level (A+ to ©2007, David E. Schwartz Glossary F) are set in Preferences. The Handicapper's Headquarters (or simply "HQ") is the Handicappe central point of the HSH user's day. It keeps all the races the r's user is interested in playing (i.e. "watch races") ordered by Headquarte current post time. rs A handicapping object (also referred to simply as an "object") handicappi is a multi-dimensional geometric shape used to define the ng object strength of a horse. Each dimension of the object represents a factor. hit rate See probability. HQ Handicapper's Headquarters 9.3 Glossary I-L Impact Value An impact value is a formula that expresses the relative chance of winning with a particular characteristic. The formula is: ImpactValue = Wins ÷ ExpectedWins note: ExpectedWins is defined as the sum of 1/FieldSize for each horse in the characteristic sample. impact An impact value table is a chart of factor values containing value table the relative "impacts" of different classes within the factor. IV table large field see impact value table. For our purposes, a large field is defined as having 8 or more betting interests. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 179 180 lock in 9.4 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Refers to using My Handicapping to lock in one or more horses probabilities or $nets. Glossary M-P My A method of locking in a specific probability or $net for one Handicappi or more particular horses in a race. All other probabilities ng are computed around these "locked" horses. See an example: Tutorial 2: SAR02 MyTracks The MyTracks system allows the user to designate a group of tracks as being "of interest" to him. Note The Note Button opens the Race Notes file for the currently Button open race in Windows notepad (or the user's word processor of choice. NTB Stands for the "Never That Bad" concept. OOU Horses at low odds that come up with ridiculously low $nets are never that bad. Concept: Odds-On Underrated Odds-on horses are consistently underrated by just about any handicapping system. This is because it is very difficult to give them fair credit - even if they are 1st in just about everything. Open Race The open race is the race that currently has focus. PExW Stands for Pool Expected Wins. PIV Stands for "pool impact value." PAF Betting strategy concept: Play Against Favorite ©2007, David E. Schwartz Glossary Pool Impact Value Whenever the favorite is a non-contender, play all contenders against him. Pool impact value is a formula that expresses the relative chance of winning with a particular characteristic. The formula is: PIV = Wins ÷ PoolExpectedWins note: PoolExpectedWins is defined as the sum of the pool percentage for each horse in the characteristic sample.. Probability Chances of a horse winning a race or bet PSR Projected Speed Rating is a proprietary number created by HDW's Jim Cramer. It is the speed rating that Cramer believes the horse will achieve to day. Note that the number is on Cramer's scale. Strengths: A very powerful overall rating. Typically gets 2931% winners on the top horse in the field. Weakness: Highly correlated with the public's betting habits. The top horse will be favorite or second choice 84% of the time. 9.5 Glossary Q-U Race Notes Each race has a race notes file which contains screens which the user has captured into it through the use of the Notes button. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 181 182 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Notes: These "notes" buttons are spread throughout the software. However, if you find a screen which does not have one, you may simply open the notes for the race (next paragraph) and manually paste the text into the notes. Race Notes may also refer to the "Note" button on the toolbar. Relative Value Relative Value is a concept pioneered by Dave Schwartz. It is based upon the concept that, given a subset of horses that produce some $Net, if one consistently wagers against the worst $Net of those horses on an individual race basis, the remaining horses should should an improvement in $net above the entire sample. Logical Question Is it safe to assume that the best bet (of the subset) in each individual race (using a criteria other than the subset itself) would outperform the worst (of the subset) in the long run? In other words, if I consistently pick the best $net/grade horses over the worst $net/grades will I be better off than if I played them all? ©2007, David E. Schwartz Glossary Rtg The answer is, of course, "yes." That's "relative value." Stands for Composite Rating. It is a high-level composite factor made up of 32 other factors weighted together. Strength: Horses with good, recent speed, pace and form ratings. Top horse is very close to break-even across all races, all tracks. Weakness: Past-class horses that have not been competitive lately or have thrown less-than-competitive speed numbers. Screen Short for "user-defined screen." A screen is designed by the user to display several fields upon demand. Screens are also used to define the fields to be used in the CSV Export function. small field For our purposes, a small field is one having fewer than 8 betting interests. Text Box A text box is a display window which can be edited. Generally it is easily added to the race notes or copied to the Windows clipboard for pasting into another program. 9.6 Glossary V-Z Watch List The Watch List is the list of races that you are interested in handicapping today. These races are tagged with a "W" in the Handicapper's Headquarters. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 183 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part X Racing Who's Who 10 Racing Who's Who 10.1 Quirin, Dr. William L. Enter topic text here. 10.2 Cramer, Jim ©2007, David E. Schwartz 185 Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part XI Settings 11 Settings 11.1 E-S-P Definitions E-S-P This setting uses the Quirin Early Speed Points to define E-SDefinitions P running styles. The numbers represent the lowest ES point total that will ©2007, David E. Schwartz 187 188 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 qualify for the category. 11.2 Grades ©2007, David E. Schwartz Settings 11.3 Notepad Width Note Width The note width limits the size of screens when being placed into a text file for the race. Most printers can only handle 7479 characters by default (in portrait mode). The setting is changed in Preferences. ©2007, David E. Schwartz 189 190 11.4 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Odds Groups Odds Groups Odds Groups are used in several places within the program to categorize odds into A-B-D-C-E groups. Each number represents the high range for that category. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Settings Anything above "D" is an "E." 11.5 Time Zone Time Zone Adjustment ©2007, David E. Schwartz 191 192 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 California= 0.00 Chicago = 2.00 New York=3.00 11.6 Which HQ? Which HQ? In HSH, we never remove anything. We still have users that want to handicap using the HSH v3 "style," but with the extra factors and improved factor integrity of the newest version. This field denotes which Handicapper's Headquarters paradigm to use: H3 or the H4/H5 style. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Settings 11.7 193 Word Processor Word Processor You may should use the "Select Program" button to navigate to your word processor of choice if you wish to change from Notepad. ©2007, David E. Schwartz Top Level Intro This page is printed before a new top-level chapter starts Part XII New Features in H5 12 New Features in H5 My Handicapping This feature allows the user to add his own handicapping to individual horses the race. Tutorial 2: SAR02 ©2007, David E. Schwartz 195 196 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 Index Early Speed 178 Early Speed Points 178 ES 178 ES points 47, 178 ESP 178 E-S-P 47, 178 -$$Net 177, 188 -A- -F- analyst 45, 177 assumptions 10 -BBetting Strategy 180 -C- FH 63, 178 FH+1 178 field scaling 47, 178 filter 178 front half 63, 178 -G- Concepts 177, 180 contenders 63, 177 Cramer, Jim 181 cRtg 183 CSV 177 CSV Export 177 -Ddisabled 10 disabled toolbar Dr. Quirin 185 dutch 177 dutching 177 -E- 10 grades grayed 178, 188 10 -HHandicapper's Data Warehouse 10 Handicapper's Headquarters 47, 178, 179 Handicapper's HQ 178 handicapping object 178, 179 handicapping objects 175 HDW 10 hit rate 179 HQ 47, 178, 179 ©2007, David E. Schwartz Index HSH HSJ 22 22, 147 notes 180, 181 ntb 180 -I- -O- impact value 179 impact value table 179 installation 10 IV 179 IV table 179 object 178, 179 objects 175 odds 190 odds group 190 Odds Groups 47 Odds-on Underrated OOU 180 open race 180 -Llarge field 179 lock in 180 locked 180 locked in 180 -Mmodel 39, 149 model status 39, 149 My Handicapping 87, 89, 180 my tracks 47, 50, 180 MyTracks 47, 50, 180 -Nnet 177 new features 17, 87, 89 Not That Bad 180 note button 180 notepad 193 ©2007, David E. Schwartz 197 180 -PPAF 180 PExW 180 PExWins 180 PIV 180, 181 Play Against Favorite 180 Pool Expected Wins 180 Pool Impact Value 180, 181 preferences 47 prime contenders 63 probability 180, 181 Projected Speed Rating 181 PSR 181 -QQuirin 185 Quirin, Dr. William L. 185 198 HorseStreet Handicapper, v5 -R- -W- race conditions 155 race filter 178 race notes 181 Rating 183 Relative Value 63, 182 RelVal 182 results 159 Results window 159 RS 178 Rtg 183 Running Style 178 watch 183 watch list 183 Which HQ? 47 Win Dutch tab 168 win-place-show 159 word processor 193 W-P-S 159 -Sscreen 181, 183 small field 183 -Ttext box 166, 181, 183 text window 183 time 191 time zone 47, 191 -Uuser-defined screen 183 ©2007, David E. Schwartz 199 Endnotes 2... (after index) ©2007, David E. Schwartz Back Cover