Hood County Emission Inventory Review
Transcription
Hood County Emission Inventory Review
FY14-15 PGA 582-14-40697 FY14-1 Task 3.1 Amendment 1 Report Review of Hood County Ozone Precursor Emission Inventory for Point, Off-road and Area Sources PREPARED UNDER A GRANT FROM THE TEXAS COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY The preparation of this report was financed through grants from the State of Texas through the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The content, findings, opinions and conclusions are the work of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent findings, opinions or conclusions of the TCEQ. Prepared for: Michelle McKenzie Hood County Clean Air Coalition 123 E. Pearl St. #200 Granbury, Texas 76048 Prepared by: John Grant, Sue Kemball-Cook and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation 773 San Marin Drive, Suite 2115 Novato, California, 94998 www.environcorp.com P-415-899-0700 F-415-899-0707 March 2015 March 2015 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................... 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 4 1.1 Background and Purpose.................................................................................................4 1.2 All Source Emissions Overview ........................................................................................6 1.3 Anthropogenic Source Emissions Overview ....................................................................7 2.0 OFF-ROAD EMISSIONS REVIEW ...................................................................................... 9 2.1 Overview of emissions inventory ....................................................................................9 2.2 Analysis ..........................................................................................................................13 2.2.1 Off-Road Equipment Emissions Calculated Using the TexN Emission Model ..................................................................................................................13 2.2.2 Off-Road Equipment Emissions Calculated Outside of the TexN Emission Model ...................................................................................................14 3.0 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS REVIEW ............................................................................... 16 3.1 Overview of emissions inventory ..................................................................................16 3.2 Analysis ..........................................................................................................................23 3.2.1 Oil and Gas Emissions .........................................................................................23 3.2.2 Fuel Combustion Emissions ................................................................................26 3.2.3 Gasoline Distribution Emissions .........................................................................26 4.0 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS REVIEW.............................................................................. 28 4.1 2012 Point Source Emissions .........................................................................................28 4.1.1 Emission Summary ..............................................................................................28 4.2 Point Source Emission Comparison to NEI ....................................................................31 4.3 Newly Permitted Power Plant Units ..............................................................................33 4.3.1 DeCordova Power Plant Expansion.....................................................................34 4.3.2 Wolf Hollow II Power Plant Expansion................................................................35 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS................................................................................................... 37 6.0 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................ 38 i March 2015 APPENDICES Appendix A. Hood County Off-road and Area Source Emissions Appendix B. Hood County Point Source Emissions TABLES Table 2-1. 2012 off-road emission inventory data sources. ....................................................9 Table 2-2. Hood County 2012 off-road emissions..................................................................10 Table 3-1. Population changes in Hood County between 2006 and 2015. Data source: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/default.shtm ..........................16 Table 3-2. Hood County 2012 area source emissions. ...........................................................19 Table 3-3. 2011 and 2012 area source emissions comparison. .............................................21 Table 3-4. Oil and gas emissions methods summary by source category. ............................25 Table 3-5. Texas statewide annual gasoline consumption. ...................................................27 Table 4-1. Top emitting NOx and VOC point sources in Hood County. .................................30 Table 4-2. Hood County point source emissions by industrial sector....................................31 Table 4-3. 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ NOx ozone season day point source emissions by year by facility. .................................................................................32 Table 4-4. Number of facilities by SIC in the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ point source emission inventory. ...................................................................................33 Table 4-5. NOx and VOC emissions for facilities that did not report emissions in both years, 2011 and 2012. ...................................................................................33 Table 4-6.Hourly maximum allowable emission rate (source: TCEQ Permit Number 107569) and calculated daily maximum allowable emission rate from additional permitted units at the DeCordova Power Plant. .................................35 Table 4-7. Hourly maximum allowable emission rate (source: TCEQ Permit Number 83638 and PSDTX1110) and calculated daily maximum allowable emission rate from additional permitted units at the Wolf Hollow II Power Plant Expansion. .........................................................................................36 FIGURES Figure 1-1. 2012 Hood County NOx and VOC emissions by source category for NOx (left) and VOC (right). ..............................................................................................7 Figure 1-2. Hood County 2006 and 2012 Hood County anthropogenic emissions by sector for NOx (left) and VOC (right).......................................................................8 ii March 2015 Figure 2-1. Hood County 2012 off-road NOx emissions emission by source category. ................................................................................................................11 Figure 2-2. Hood County 2012 off-road VOC emissions emission by source category. ................................................................................................................11 Figure 2-3. Comparison of 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ NOx off-road emissions emission by source category for Hood County. ....................................................12 Figure 2-4. Comparison of 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ VOC off-road emissions emission by source category for Hood County. ....................................................12 Figure 3-1. 2000-2014 oil and gas production (left) and well count (right) totals for Hood County based on TRC oil and gas activity data. (Well counts are as of beginning of February for each year). ..........................................................18 Figure 3-2. 2000-2014 oil and gas production from the Barnett Shale. .....................................18 Figure 3-3. Natural gas productivity within the Barnett Shale. Figure from the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology: http://www.utexas.edu/news/files/Productivity-Tiers-2.jpg. ..............................19 Figure 3-4. Hood County 2012 area source NOx emissions emission by source category. ................................................................................................................20 Figure 3-5. Hood County 2012 area source VOC emissions emission by source category. ................................................................................................................20 Figure 3-6. Hood County 2012 oil and gas source NOx emissions by source category. .............22 Figure 3-7. Hood County 2012 oil and gas source VOC emissions by source category. .............22 Figure 4-1. Map showing location of Hood County point sources in the TCEQ 2012 NOx emission inventory (facility name labels not provided for facilities emitting 0.03 tpd NOx or less). .............................................................................29 Figure 4-2. Hood County ozone season day point source emissions from the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ inventories.............................................................................31 iii March 2015 LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS ARPDB BACT BSASI CAMD CAMS CEM CO CTG DFW DLN EGU EIA EPA hr HAP HCCAC Kg kW M MEGAN MM MOBILE6.2 MOVES NAAQS NEI NNA NO NOx OSD ppb SCC SCR scf SIC SIP STARS TAC TCEQ Ton tpd TRC VMT VOC yr Acid Rain Program Database Best available control technology Barnett Shale Area Special Inventory Clean Air Markets Division Continuous Air Monitoring Station Continuous emissions monitor Carbon Monoxide Combustion turbine generation Dallas-Fort Worth Area Dry low-NOx Electric generating unit Energy Information Administration Environmental Protection Agency Hour Hazardous air pollutant Hood County Clean Air Coalition Kilogram Kilowatt Thousand Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature Million Mobile source emissions model (predecessor to MOVES) Motor Vehicle Emissions Simulator National Ambient Air Quality Standard National Emission Inventory Near Non-Attainment Area (for the ozone NAAQS) Nitric Oxide Oxides of Nitrogen Ozone season day parts per billion Source Classification Code Selective Catalytic Reduction Standard cubic feet Standard industrial classification State Implementation Plan (for the ozone NAAQS) State of Texas Air Reporting System Texas Administrative Code Texas Commission on Environmental Quality English short ton (2000 pounds) Ton per day Texas Railroad Commission Vehicle Miles Travelled Volatile organic compound Year iv March 2015 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this study is to review the most recent Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) ozone precursor emission inventories available for Hood County for off-road, area (non-point) and point sources to identify sources of emissions that are missing from the inventory or are not well-characterized. Through analysis of the emission inventory we aimed to identify sources of emissions that are overestimated or underestimated, accompanied by high levels of uncertainty, or for which more accurate or detailed emissions are available and to determine source categories for which further emission inventory development efforts are warranted. Before focusing on specific emission categories we first reviewed the entire Hood County emission inventory of ozone precursors from human activities (anthropogenic emissions) and natural sources (biogenic emissions). Biogenic emissions are emitted by sources such as trees, agricultural crops and microbial activity in soils. The most recent available emission inventory of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions for Hood County is TCEQ’s 2012 emission inventory. Hood County-wide 2012 total emission estimates are 11 tons per day (tpd) of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and 78 tpd of volatile organic compounds (VOC). Biogenic emissions are the largest VOC category comprising 68 tpd of Hood County VOC emissions. Presence of abundant biogenic VOC emissions ensures there are typically sufficient VOC to allow ozone formation. This means local emissions control strategies aimed at reducing the local contribution to Hood County ozone should focus on reducing NOx emissions. The three largest contributors to Hood County NOx emissions are: point sources (3.3 tpd, 29%), oil and gas area sources (2.9 tpd, 25%) and on-road vehicles (2.7 tpd, 23%). Together, these three source categories account for over three-quarters of Hood County’s NOx emissions. Smaller NOx emissions source categories, off-road (1.3 tpd, 11%), biogenics (1.2 tpd, 11%), and non-oil and gas area sources (0.1 tpd, 1%) together account for less than one-quarter of Hood County NOx emissions. Biogenic sources are the largest VOC category comprising 87% (68 tpd) of Hood County VOC emissions. Anthropogenic sources account for 13% of VOC emissions with contributions from oil and gas area sources (7%; 5.1 tpd), non-oil and gas area sources (3%; 2.2 tpd), point sources (1%; 1.0 tpd), on-road vehicles (1%; 0.9 tpd), and off-road sources (1%; 0.7 tpd). Electric power generation accounts for 58% of point source NOx emissions while oil and gasrelated point sources account for the remaining 42%. TCEQ has approved a permit to construct and operate two additional natural gas-fueled combustion turbine generation (CTG) units at the DeCordova Power Plant and has also approved a permit to construct and operate two additional CTG units at the Wolf Hollow Power Plant. For the DeCordova Power Plant expansion, estimated daily maximum total permitted NOx emissions for these units are 1.8 tpd to 2.9 tpd. Estimated daily maximum NOx emissions from the DeCordova Power Plant expansion represent potential increases of 18% to 28% from all Hood County anthropogenic sources relative to the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory (see Section 4.3.1 for further information). For the Wolf Hollow Power Plant expansion, estimated daily maximum total 1 March 2015 permitted NOx emissions for these units are 0.8 tpd NOx. Estimated daily allowable NOx emissions from the Wolf Hollow Power Plant expansion represent potential increases of 8% from all Hood County anthropogenic sources relative to the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory (see Section 4.3.2 for further information). Estimated daily allowable NOx emission estimates provided above are not expected to represent ozone season daily estimates. Ozone season daily emission estimates will depend on the power plant electric load during the ozone season; since the new units are peaking units it is expected that during summer months they may operate at a higher load. Oil and gas area source NOx emissions account for 96% of area source NOx emissions with 94% of oil and gas area sources from compressor engines. Compressor engine emissions are estimated based on the TCEQ Barnett Shale Area Special Inventory (BSASI)1, which was developed using local data supplied by energy exploration and production companies active in the Barnett Shale. Recommended improvements to the TCEQ 2012 area, off‐road, and point source emissions inventories are listed below in order of importance. NOx emissions updates are a higher priority than VOC emission updates because ozone formation in Hood County is expected to be NOx limited because of substantial biogenic VOC emissions that are not controllable. None of the recommended changes are expected to affect the largest Hood County NOx emission source categories (i.e. power plants and oil and gas area source compressor engines) and accordingly none of these updates is considered a high priority. Inventory Improvements and Recommendations for Implementation 1. Switching locomotive emissions associated with Cresson rail yard are not included in the 2012 emission inventory. “Switching” is the process of sorting and re-combining rolling stock at a rail yard. Recommendation: Develop Cresson rail yard emission inventory for inclusion in future inventories (Section 2.2.2). 2. Update oil and gas activity/equipment area source emissions data (Section 3.2.1). Recommendation: Update equipment configuration and ancillary data used in emissions calculations for heaters, pneumatic pumps, fugitive devices, dehydrators, and well completions. 3. Verify data underlying gasoline distribution emission inventory (Section 3.2.3). Recommendation: Obtain gasoline distribution volume estimates from local/state agencies to verify that reasonable gasoline throughput volumes are used in the ERG (2008a) study. 1 “Barnett Shale Area Special Inventory, Phase One”, TCEQ, 2009, http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseiforms/Barnett%20Shale%20Area%20Special%20 Inventory.pdf, “Barnett Shale Phase Two Special Inventory Data”, TCEQ, http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseiforms/summarydatainfo.pdf 2 March 2015 Power plants are one of the largest sources of NOx emissions in Hood County; in 2012 they comprised 16% of the Hood County NOx emission inventory. Expansion of the Wolf Hollow and DeCordova power plants through addition of new CTGs would increase NOx emissions. Because proposed CTGs would operate as peaking units, they would likely have their highest emissions on hot summer days when Hood County is most likely to experience high ozone. Therefore, plans to develop new units should be monitored closely and new NOx emissions analyzed to determine their magnitude, variability and potential ozone impacts. 3 March 2015 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and Purpose Hood County is located in the southwestern part of the Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington Metropolitan Statistical Area (DFW)2. On May 21, 2012, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published in the Federal Register final designations for the 2008 eighthour ozone standard. Hood County was and is currently designated as attainment/unclassifiable for eight-hour ozone.3 Ground level ozone monitoring data are used to calculate what are termed “design values” (DV) that determine whether an area is in compliance with the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. “Design values” are indicators of attainment status that are expressed in the same units (e.g., parts ozone per billion parts ambient air) but are not directly comparable with ambient measurements. The Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) operates one Continuous Air Monitoring Station (CAMS) in Hood County, the Granbury monitor (CAMS 73). As of the end of 2014, the Granbury monitor had a design value of 76 parts per billion (ppb) which exceeds the 2008 ozone NAAQS of 75 ppb. Under the Clean Air Act, the EPA is required to review the NAAQS periodically. On November 26, 2014, the EPA announced their proposal to lower the NAAQS to a value in the 65-70 ppb range and to finalize the NAAQS by October, 2015. Designations of attainment status are anticipated by October 2017 and will likely be based on monitored ozone levels in the 20142016 timeframe. The Granbury (CAMS 73) monitor’s design value is higher than the current ozone standard and with the anticipated lowering of the ozone standard the Granbury monitor may remain out of compliance. Because failure to comply with the NAAQS carries adverse public health impacts and significant economic penalties, ozone air quality planning is important for Hood County. Accurate and up-to-date emission inventories of ozone precursors are a key component of air quality planning. Emission inventories are used to assess the nature of an area’s ozone problem and can help answer questions such as whether ozone formation in the region is limited by the amount of available NOx or VOC as well as which types of emissions sources are good candidates for emissions controls that could reduce the area’s ozone levels. Emission inventories are also required for ozone modeling. Ozone models are used to gain a better understanding of an area’s ozone problem and to test potential impacts of emission control strategies. Following EPA’s 2010 reconsideration of the ozone standard, the TCEQ began preparing for State Implementation Plan (SIP) development by planning for ozone modeling that would coordinate efforts for all Texas Near Non-Attainment Areas (NNAs). The TCEQ developed an emission inventory for a 2006 ozone modeling episode. The purpose of the ozone modeling was 2 3 http://www.census.gov/population/metro/data/def.html https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/sip/dfw/dfw-ozone-history 4 March 2015 to develop and test emissions control strategies that would ensure that each NNA would attain the new ozone standard. The 2006 emission inventory and air quality modeling are now dated and no longer adequately reflect present emission levels due to changes to parameters important to emission inventory development. Examples of these parameters include the amount of oil and gas activity and ongoing changes to on-road and off-road equipment fleets as a result of fleet turnover and changes in vehicle and equipment populations. The TCEQ is currently developing a 2012 ozone modeling episode for use by the Texas NNAs. This ozone modeling episode will eventually be available to the Hood County Clean Air Coalition (HCCAC) for emission control strategy development and evaluation. The TCEQ selected a June, 2012 episode which will serve as an initial base case modeling episode. The TCEQ plans to eventually expand this modeling episode to include the entire 2012 ozone season. The purpose of the 2012 base case episode is to determine whether the photochemical model is able to replicate observed ozone and precursors during a historical period of high ozone. If the model is able to reproduce the past ozone episode with reasonable accuracy it may then be used to make projections of future year ozone and to evaluate effects of proposed emission control strategies. The TCEQ recommended that NNAs review emission inventories that may be used for ozone modeling or may be used as the basis for future year emission inventory development. The purpose of this report is to provide a review of the most recent 2012 TCEQ anthropogenic emission inventories for Hood County for off-road, area and point sources. Point sources are large stationary emissions sources that exceed a specified emissions threshold and therefore are tracked individually in the emissions inventory. Area sources are sources that may be spread out geographically and are small individually (such as an oil well), but, taken together, may constitute a sizeable amount of emissions. Off-road mobile source emissions are from mobile and portable internal combustion powered equipment not generally licensed or certified for highway use. In this report we summarize the TCEQ 2012 area, off-road and point source emission inventory for Hood County, examine emissions estimation methodology and emission trends, and identify emissions categories that are overestimated or underestimated, accompanied by high levels of uncertainty, or for which more accurate or detailed emissions are available. The contents of the remainder of this report are as follows: Section 2: 2012 off-road emissions review, Section 3: 2012 area source emissions review, Section 4: 2012 point source emissions review, and Section 5: Recommendations for emission inventory improvement. 5 March 2015 1.2 All Source Emissions Overview The TCEQ 2012 emission inventory is summarized below to establish the relative importance of point, area, and off-road sources with respect to other emissions source categories (e.g. onroad mobile sources, biogenics) in the Hood County emission inventory. At the time this analysis was performed, 2012 was the most recent year for which a full Hood County emission inventory (i.e. anthropogenic and biogenic emissions) was available. Area source emissions presented in this section have been divided into two components: non-oil and gas area sources and oil and gas area sources. This division facilitates understanding of contributions from oil and gas area sources; oil and gas sources comprise a larger fraction of the area source NOx and VOC inventories than any other single area emissions source category. Figure 1-1 shows NOx and VOC emissions by source category in Hood County for 2012. Hood County-wide 2012 total emission estimates are 11.4 tpd NOx and 78.3 tpd VOC. The largest three emissions source categories, point sources (3.3 tpd, 29%), oil and gas area sources (2.9 tpd, 25%), and on-road vehicles (2.7 tpd, 23%), account for over three-quarters of Hood County NOx emissions. Smaller NOx emissions sources, off-road (1.3 tpd, 11%), biogenic (1.2 tpd, 11%), and non-oil and gas area (0.1 tpd, 1%) sources, together account for less than one-quarter of Hood County total NOx emissions. Biogenic sources are the largest VOC category comprising 87% (68.4 tpd) of Hood County total VOC emissions. Anthropogenic sources account for 13% of VOC emissions with contributions from: oil and gas area sources (7%; 5.1 tpd), non-oil and gas area sources (33%; 2.2 tpd), point sources (1%; 1.0 tpd), on-road vehicles (1%; 0.9 tpd), and offroad sources (1%; 0.7 tpd). Biogenic emissions estimates were developed by the TCEQ using the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN; Guenther et al., 2012) version 2.10; MEGAN emissions provide hourly day-specific emissions that depend on photosynthetically active solar radiation and temperature as well as other inputs such as land cover. Episode average biogenic emissions were extracted by ENVIRON from a draft TCEQ 2012 biogenic emission inventory for Hood County from data available at the time this analysis was performed. This TCEQ inventory included biogenic emissions for the period June 14-30, 2012 only. Extension of the average period across the entire episode can be done in the future, but is unlikely to significantly change the ratio of biogenic to total VOC emissions. Ozone formation depends on the amount of NOx and VOC present as well as on the ratio of VOC to NOx where the ratio is taken in terms of parts per billion by carbon (ppbC) per ppb. When the VOC/NOx ratio is higher than about 10 ozone formation is limited by the amount of available NOx and reducing NOx tends to decrease peak ozone concentrations. However, if the VOC/NOx ratio is less than about 7 reducing NOx tends to increase ozone in the vicinity of NOx emission sources (e.g., an urban area) and the area is said to be VOC-limited. In this situation, ozone is suppressed in the urban area due to titration by large amounts of fresh NO emissions. When NOx emissions are reduced suppression of ozone by NO is lessened and ozone increases. 6 March 2015 For Hood County, the emission inventory VOC/NOx ratio is 23 ppbC/ppb, which is well within the NOx-limited regime. The presence of abundant biogenic VOC emissions ensures that there are sufficient VOCs to allow ozone formation and that ozone formation is limited by the amount of available NOx. This means local emissions control strategies should focus on reducing NOx emissions. Figure 1-1. 2012 Hood County NOx and VOC emissions by source category for NOx (left) and VOC (right). 1.3 Anthropogenic Source Emissions Overview The TCEQ 2006 and 2012 emission inventories are compared below to evaluate Hood County emissions trends between 2006 and 2012. Figure 1-1 shows NOx and VOC anthropogenic emissions by source category in Hood County for 2006 and 2012. Hood County-wide anthropogenic NOx emissions decreased from 12.3 tpd in 2006 to 10.2 tpd in 2012 (-17%). The following NOx emissions source categories showed decreases from 2006 to 2012: on-road vehicles (-46%), off-road mobile sources (-40%) and non-oil and gas area sources (-25%). Point sources and oil and gas area source NOx emissions increased by 9% and 40%, respectively. Hood County-wide anthropogenic VOC emissions decreased from 13.1 tpd in 2006 to 10.0 tpd in 2012 (-24%). The following VOC emissions source categories showed decreases from 2006 to 2012: oil and gas sources (-37%), on-road vehicles (-31%), and non-oil and gas area sources (9%). Point source VOC emissions and off-road source VOC emissions increased by 70% and 3%, respectively. Changes to on-road emissions result from changes in vehicle activity (vehicle miles traveled; VMT) and fleet turnover over time. VMT activity trends are typically consistent with human population trends. Hood County population increased by 8% from 2006 to 20124; decreases in NOx and VOC emissions from on-road vehicles are likely the result of fleet turnover to new vehicles between 2006 and 2012 rather than decreases in vehicle activity. Similar to on-road 4 http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/default.shtm 7 March 2015 vehicles changes in emissions from off-road sources are the result of both changes in activity (i.e. equipment population and annual use) and fleet turnover to new equipment. Decreases in off-road NOx emissions and increases in off-road VOC emissions from 2006 to 2012 are due to combination of equipment activity changes and the effect of fleet turnover. Changes in oil and gas area source emissions from 2006 to 2012 are likely due to a combination of factors: oil and gas activity increases from 2006 to 2012 as well as improvements in TCEQ’s oil and gas area source emissions estimation methodology. Development of the 2012 emission inventory is based on a collection of Barnett Shale survey data in studies such as the BSASI. This level of detailed area-specific data was not available in 2006. Point source emission increases are due to increased activity for the point source sector between 2006 and 2012. Figure 1-2. Hood County 2006 and 2012 Hood County anthropogenic emissions by sector for NOx (left) and VOC (right). 8 December 2014 2.0 OFF-ROAD EMISSIONS REVIEW Off-road mobile source emissions are from mobile and portable internal combustion powered equipment not generally licensed or certified for highway use. Off-road emissions equipment categories span a wide range of equipment types such as lawn and garden equipment, heavyduty construction equipment, aircraft and locomotives. Off-road emissions for many of these categories are calculated using EPA’s NONROAD computer model. TCEQ has developed a Texasspecific application of the NONROAD model called TexN (ERG, 2014) for counties within Texas and this model is described below. 2.1 Overview of emissions inventory ENVIRON obtained the most recent 2012 emission inventory for Hood County from several sources based on input from TCEQ staff (TCEQ, 2014a). The most recent source of data available for each emissions source category was used. Table 2-1 contains a listing of data sources. Hood County off-road source emissions by county and source category are presented in Appendix A. Table 2-1. Off-road Type c Locomotives Drill Rigs 2012 off-road emission inventory data sources. b c Other Off-road d Equipment Emissions Data Source Source: TCEQ ftp site ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/ a Reference: No reference available Source: Personal communication with TCEQ staff (TCEQ, 2015) Reference: ERG (2010a) methodology with 2012 spudding activity Source: TCEQ ftp site ftp://amdaftp.tceq.texas.gov/pub/ Reference: TexN model, version 1.6.1 (ERG, 2014) a Previously based on ERG (2010b). Emissions have been updated, but new documentation is not yet available. The TCEQ 2012 inventory includes no emissions from aviation sources in Hood County. c Average day emissions available from TCEQ were used. d Average day emissions were estimated based on weekday, Saturday, and Sunday emissions available from TCEQ according to the following equation: (weekday emissions*5 + Saturday emissions + Sunday emissions)/7. b The off-road sector is made up of various types of equipment that change locations at least once each year (or in certain cases once each season). Off-road sector emissions for many types of off-road equipment can be estimated with the U.S. EPA’s NONROAD model5. A Texas nonroad emissions model, the TexN model (ERG, 2014) is also available. The TCEQ developed the TexN model which runs the NONROAD model with Texas-specific data for equipment activity parameters such as equipment population, equipment annual hours of activity, seasonal usage patterns, and activity growth to the extent that such Texas-specific data is available primarily from TCEQ-funded studies as described in ERG (2008b) and ERG (2014). The TexN model is described in more detail in Section 2.2.1. Off-road sources not in the TexN model (locomotives, 5 http://www.epa.gov/otaq/nonrdmdl.htm 9 March 2015 drill rigs, and aviation) are estimated in stand-alone analyses based on the unique types of engines and activities associated with each of these off-road sources. Table 2-2 shows Hood County NOx, VOC and CO off-road emissions from the 2012 TCEQ inventory and the 2011 EPA National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The 2011 NEI is shown for comparison purposes; however, the 2011 NEI is an annual emission inventory while the 2012 TCEQ inventory is an ozone season emission inventory hence differences in the two inventories are based not only on (1) differences in equipment activity source data and (2) changes in activity and emission factors from 2011 to 2012, but also due to seasonal usage profiles. Therefore, emissions differences for a source category for which activity varies considerably by season (e.g. pleasure craft) may be dominated by differences in the temporal scope of the two inventories. Table 2-2. Pollutant NOx VOC CO 1 2 Hood County 2012 off-road emissions. Emissions (tpd) 2012 TCEQ1 2011 NEI2 1.33 1.29 0.51 0.75 5.71 3.89 Ozone season day inventory Annual inventory Figure 2-1 and Figure 2-2 show 2012 off-road emission contributions by source category for Hood County for NOx and VOC. The three largest contributors to off-road NOx emissions are agricultural equipment (40%), construction and mining equipment (26%), and drilling equipment (20%). The top three NOx emissions sources are all primarily made up of diesel engine fleets and together account for 86% of off-road source NOx emissions. Over threequarters (79%) of VOC emissions are from the top two contributors (pleasure craft and lawn and garden equipment). Off-road source categories with the largest contributions to VOC emissions have gasoline engine fleets. Figure 2-3 and Figure 2-4 show a comparison of 2012 TCEQ inventory NOx and VOC emissions by source category with 2011 NEI estimates. Three source categories that stand-out for their differences between 2011 and 2012 emissions are agricultural equipment (38% higher NOx emissions in the TCEQ inventory), drilling equipment (39% lower NOx emissions in the TCEQ inventory), and pleasure craft (84% higher emissions in the TCEQ inventory). Differences between 2012 TCEQ and 2011 NEI drilling emissions are due to changes in drill rig activity from 2011 to 2012 as explained below. Differences between 2012 TCEQ and 2011 NEI agricultural equipment emissions are due primarily to use of Texas-specific population updates in TexN as described below while differences between 2012 TCEQ and 2011 NEI pleasure craft emissions are due to both updates in TexN to pleasure craft population and differences in the temporal basis of the emission inventory. Since the 2012 TCEQ inventory is for an average ozone season day which occurs in summer there is more pleasure craft (boating) activity and associated emissions in the 2012 TCEQ inventory than in the 2011 NEI which is an annual inventory based on annual average pleasure craft activity. 10 March 2015 Figure 2-1. Hood County 2012 off-road NOx emissions emission by source category. Figure 2-2. Hood County 2012 off-road VOC emissions emission by source category. 11 March 2015 Figure 2-3. Comparison of 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ NOx off-road emissions emission by source category for Hood County. Figure 2-4. Comparison of 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ VOC off-road emissions emission by source category for Hood County. 12 March 2015 2.2 Analysis 2.2.1 Off-Road Equipment Emissions Calculated Using the TexN Emission Model All off-road emissions except for emissions from locomotives and drilling equipment are estimated in the TexN model; TexN model sources taken together represent 74% of off-road NOx emissions and 98% of off-road VOC emissions in Hood County. The TexN model includes input data that has been updated to more accurately reflect Texas specific off-road operations as well as NONROAD default data. There have been a number of emission inventory improvements in TexN which are typically made on a category-by-category basis and consist of updates to the statewide equipment population, spatial allocation of population, temporal allocations, and/or annual hours of use estimates. For those equipment types for which NONROAD default data is used there is considerable uncertainty in emissions that are calculated with TexN. NONROAD model default base year statewide population estimates were developed based on nationwide population estimates allocated to the state level using spatial surrogates. National equipment populations were developed from calendar year 1996 to 2000 base year data. Growth rate estimates used to project population to past and future years were estimated for most source categories based on population trends taken from EPA’s analysis of 1989 to 1996 nationwide population data (exceptions are off-road motorcycles, ATVs and snowmobiles) (EPA, 2004); a notable exception is construction equipment population growth rates which were estimated based on Texasspecific data in (ERG, 2014). The TexN model includes Texas-specific non-default estimates of growth rates for most diesel construction equipment types. TexN also includes Texas-specific temporal allocations which may differ from NONROAD region-specific default temporal allocations. Because of the distributed nature of off-road equipment across residential, commercial and industrial sectors, updating NONROAD model inputs can be resource-intensive. The TCEQ has funded a series of studies that have developed detailed Texas-specific data for use in TexN as described in ERG (2008b) and ERG (2014). Table 4 below summarizes data sources used in the TexN model for the Hood County area. Below, we discuss source categories that make the largest contributions to the Hood County area off-road NOx emission inventory and describe more detailed nondefault data for Hood County that were available within TexN. Table 4. Non-default data used in the TexN model for the Hood County area (ERG, 2008b). Statewide Spatial Allocation Temporal Annual Hours Equipment Type Population (of population) Allocation of Use Construction and Mining4 Non-default1 Non-default1 Non-default1 Non-default1 Agricultural4 Non-default Non-default Non-default Non-default D D D D Industrial D D D D Commercial D Lawn and Garden Non-default2 Non-default2 Non-default2 13 March 2015 Statewide Equipment Type Population D Logging Pleasure Craft Non-default D Recreational D Railroad 3 Airport Ground D NONROAD model default data used. Support 1 Spatial Allocation (of population) Temporal Allocation Annual Hours of Use D D D Non-default D D D D D D D D D D D Local data limited to diesel powered construction equipment greater than 25 horsepower. Local data limited to commercial lawn and garden equipment. 3 No population estimates provided in TexN. 4 Additional information provided below for this category because it is a major off-road NOx emission source. 2 Agricultural Equipment In a 2009 study (Thesing, 2009) data on agricultural equipment use were gathered from Texas farming operation owners via a telephone survey; these data were used to improve representation of equipment populations, annual hours of use, and seasonal, weekly and diurnal activity profiles for agricultural equipment within TexN. Because of the Texas-specific update to agricultural data within TexN that includes DFW-specific survey data, improvements to this category are not recommended. Construction and Mining Equipment TexN diesel construction equipment data for the entire state of Texas were updated based on Baker and Preusse (2009) which revised equipment profiles based on surveys of equipment operators. Updated data included information on equipment populations by county, horsepower (hp) distributions and hours per year of operation based on information gathered for the DFW nine county area (not including Hood County). While use of Hood County equipment profiles is ideal, use of DFW nine county area based profiles is reasonable based on expected overlap in equipment fleets in the DFW nine county area and Hood County. 2.2.2 Off-Road Equipment Emissions Calculated Outside of the TexN Emission Model Drilling. Drilling equipment emissions include emissions from drilling rigs at oil and gas wells. Drilling rigs are most commonly powered by one or more diesel-fired compression-ignition engines that power the rig’s draw works, mud pump and generators. Drilling emissions were estimated by TCEQ based on ERG (2010a) methodology and 2012 drilling activity obtained from the Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) (TCEQ, 2014b). Baker Hughes6 estimates of annual average rig count in the Barnett Shale were 72 rigs in 2011 compared to 47 rigs in 2012 (a 35% decrease). The 35% decrease in Barnett Shale rig count agrees very closely with the decrease in drilling NOx emissions from the 2011 NEI to the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory of 39%. 6 http://www.bakerhughes.com/rig-count 14 March 2015 Locomotives. Line-haul locomotive emissions are reasonable based on expected and actual close agreement between the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ emission inventory. Emissions associated with switching locomotive activity at the Cresson rail yard, however, are not included in the TCEQ 2012 inventory or the 2011 NEI based on omission of any emissions from the switching locomotive source category classification code (SCC 2285002010) in Hood County in both of these emission inventories. “Switching” is the process of sorting and re-combining rolling stock at a rail yard. Locomotive emission estimates were recently updated from the emissions presented in ERG (2010b), however, documentation is not yet available to understand how switching locomotive emissions were estimated and/or why the Cresson rail yard is not included. 15 March 2015 3.0 AREA SOURCE EMISSIONS REVIEW The area source inventory treats in aggregate all stationary sources that have emissions below the point source threshold. These are sources that may be spread out geographically and are small individually, but taken together, may constitute a sizeable amount of emissions. Examples of area sources include dry cleaners, residential wood heating, auto body painting, fires, oil and gas wells and consumer solvent use. These emissions are typically estimated and reported as county totals and allocated to a finer geographic scale using a surrogate such as population distribution. For example, if a certain amount of VOC emissions are allocated to dry cleaners in a given county most of those emissions would be allocated to the locations within the county that have the highest population density. 3.1 Overview of emissions inventory ENVIRON obtained the 2012 oil and gas and non-oil and gas area source emission inventories for Hood County from the TCEQ ftp site (TCEQ, 2014a). For non-oil and gas area sources, emissions were available for a typical weekday, Saturday, and Sunday. Average day emissions were estimated by source classification code (SCC) as: (weekday emissions x 5+ Saturday emissions + Sunday emissions) / 7. Hood County area source emissions by county and source category are presented in detail in Appendix A. The area source sector is made up of various types of stationary sources that fall below point source permitting thresholds. Typically, area source emissions are estimated based on EPA AP42 methods7. For certain area source categories such as consumer products, human population or a related surrogate such as housing units is the typical emissions activity surrogate; these emission sources are of smaller magnitude than oil and gas sources in Hood County. Human population is provided for reference in Table 3-1. From 2006 to 2012, human population in Hood County increased by 8%. Table 3-1. Population changes in Hood County between 2006 and 2015. Data source: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/default.shtm Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 7 Human Population 49,058 50,214 50,688 51,381 51,182 52,105 53,105 54,099 55,084 56,112 Annual Growth 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/ 16 March 2015 Of particular importance for Hood County are area source oil and gas emissions which are significant sources of VOC and NOx emissions due to the number of oil and gas wells in Hood County. As shown in Figure 3-1, there are hundreds of oil and gas wells in Hood County8. Close to 100% of oil and gas wells in Hood County are gas wells. TRC data for calendar year 2014 indicates the presence of only one oil well in Hood County which produced 152 barrels (bbl) of oil and 3,050 thousand cubic feet (MCF) of gas. Close to 100% of Hood County wells produce gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons from the Barnett Shale formation. From 2004 to 2007 there were favorable natural gas prices for development and the number of gas wells in Hood County increased steadily. From 2007 to 2009 the number of gas wells in Hood County increased sharply; during 2008 natural gas prices reached their peak then dipped sharply from late 2008. From 2009 to 2010, as natural gas prices remained low, there was a slower pace of increase in the number of gas wells. The number of gas wells has been relatively constant from 2010 to 2014 during which natural gas prices remained significantly lower than the 2008 peak price. Increases in well count since 2004 in Hood County are due to development of the Barnett Shale oil and gas play. As well count increased from 2004, gas production and condensate production also increased sharply; gas production reached a maximum in 2009 and condensate production reached a maximum in 2008 after which both oil and gas production declined steadily to 2014. Oil and gas production declines are due to well decline (i.e. the tapering off of hydrocarbon production as a well ages) outpacing production from new oil and gas development in Hood County. Figure 3-2 shows a similar trend of increases in Barnett Shale-wide gas production to 2012 with a tapering off of production from 2012 to 2014. Hood County has gas production trends that show both delayed increases in gas production and earlier declines in gas production relative to the Barnett Shale-wide trends which indicates that Hood County was both developed later and the pace of development slowed earlier than in other areas of the Barnett Shale. The pace of Hood County development relative to the entire Barnett Shale reflects Hood County’s location outside of the “sweet spot” of the Barnett Shale Play (Figure 3-3). 8 http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/ 17 March 2015 Figure 3-1. 2000-2014 oil and gas production (left) and well count (right) totals for Hood County based on TRC oil and gas activity data. (Well counts are as of beginning of February for each year). Figure 3-2. 2000-2014 oil and gas production from the Barnett Shale. 18 March 2015 Figure 3-3. Natural gas productivity within the Barnett Shale. Figure from the Texas Bureau of Economic Geology: http://www.utexas.edu/news/files/Productivity-Tiers-2.jpg. Table 3-2 compares 2012 Hood County-wide oil and gas vs. non-oil and gas area source emissions of NOx and VOC, and Figure 3-4 and Figure 3-5 show 2012 area source emission contributions by source category in Hood County. Oil and gas area source emissions are the highest contributor accounting for 96% and 70% of NOx and VOC emissions, respectively. Fuel combustion accounts for 4% of NOx emissions, while the 30% of VOC emissions not accounted for by oil and gas sources are distributed across a number of source categories including contributions of 13% from gasoline distribution and 8% from consumer products. Table 3-2. Hood County 2012 area source emissions. Source Non-Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Total Area 2012 Emissions NOx VOC 0.13 2.17 2.86 5.11 2.99 7.28 19 March 2015 Figure 3-4. Hood County 2012 area source NOx emissions emission by source category. Figure 3-5. Hood County 2012 area source VOC emissions emission by source category. 20 March 2015 ENVIRON compared 2012 area source emissions by source category to the 2011 NEI as a gross check on the magnitude of the emissions in the 2012 TCEQ inventory. Table 3-3 shows changes in Hood County inventory from the 2011 NEI to 2012 TCEQ inventory. Differences between the two inventories are quite large for oil and gas area source NOx emissions, but are similar otherwise. Close to 100% of the difference in NOx emissions between the two inventories is due to differences in compressor engine emission estimates. As part of the 2011 NEI development effort EPA compiled the Oil and Gas Emission Estimation Tool9 which estimates oil and gas emissions based on oil and gas activity inputs and equipment configuration data by county. It is likely that 2011 NEI oil and gas area source emissions differ considerably from TCEQ 2012 inventory emission estimates due to lack of local data in the 2011 NEI. The TCEQ 2012 estimate of compressor engine emissions is based on local data. Table 3-3. 2011 and 2012 area source emissions comparison. Source Non-Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Total Area 2011 NEI Emissions NOx VOC 0.11 2.02 0.01 5.51 0.12 7.53 2012 Emissions NOx VOC 0.13 2.17 2.86 5.11 2.99 7.28 Oil and gas emission contributions to area source emissions by source category are shown in Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7. The largest source of oil and gas NOx emissions is compressor engines (95%) while fracturing engines comprise 5% of NOx emissions. The largest sources of VOC emissions are condensate tanks (54%), pneumatic devices (14%) and pneumatic pumps (11%). 9 ftp://ftp.epa.gov/EmisInventory/2011nei/doc/Tool_and_Report112614.zip 21 March 2015 Figure 3-6. Hood County 2012 oil and gas source NOx emissions by source category. Figure 3-7. Hood County 2012 oil and gas source VOC emissions by source category. 22 March 2015 3.2 Analysis The emissions analysis below focuses on those categories responsible for the preponderance of Hood County area source NOx and/or VOC emissions and for which emission updates could have significant effects on the emission inventory. 3.2.1 Oil and Gas Emissions TCEQ (2014b) provides a description of the basis of the oil and gas area source emissions development. Oil and gas emission inventory estimates are primarily based on the ERG (2010a) study with updates to emission factors and equipment profiles for a number of source categories as listed below. ERG (2010a) emission estimation methodology and inputs are based on the BSASI for a number of sources. In developing the BSASI, the TCEQ used its regulatory authority to compel survey participation by all companies with production or transmission of Barnett Shale oil or gas; because participation was compulsory, TCEQ received a very high response rate (98%). Included in the BSASI data request was the request for provision of 2009 emissions for NOx, VOC and hazardous air pollutant (HAP) emissions. The survey data allowed for improvement of the Barnett Shale oil and gas emission inventory. Condensate tank emission estimates were based on a methodology described in ERG (2012). Condensate tank emission rates are typically estimated using software such as the E&P Tank model or the HYSYS process simulator; condensate production is multiplied by condensate tank emission rates to estimate county-level emission estimates; flaring or vapor recovery may be used to control condensate tank VOC emissions. Uncontrolled VOC emission factors for the Barnett Shale (9.76 pounds VOC per barrel of condensate) including Hood County were estimated based on data gathered as part of the BSASI10. A control factor of 11.8%, estimated based on the BSASI, accounts for the fraction of emissions that are controlled and estimated control efficiency. The BSASI was compiled based on a compulsory request by TCEQ to Barnett Shale operators to provide specific oil and gas emissions data, including data for condensate tanks, and obtained a very high response rate (greater than 90% of all condensate production reported). Since the TCEQ 2012 emissions are based on emission factors estimated from surveys of Barnett Shale condensate tanks they can be considered reasonably representative of Hood County condensate tank emissions. The EPA New Source Performance Standard Subpart OOOO requires controls on tanks emitting more than six tons of VOC per year after August 23, 2011. In 2012 the effect on emissions is expected to be small as it only applies to wells drilled in late 2011 and 2012. However, for future year emission inventories the effect of Subpart OOOO on emissions will need to be accounted for. Heater emission estimates were developed based on equipment profiles and emission factors for the Arch Bend-Fort Worth region developed in ERG (2013). The Hood County heater profiles 10 “Barnett Shale Area Special Inventory, Phase One”, TCEQ, 2009, http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseiforms/Barnett%20Shale%20Area%20Special%20 Inventory.pdf, “Barnett Shale Phase Two Special Inventory Data”, TCEQ, http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/ie/pseiforms/summarydatainfo.pdf 23 March 2015 used to estimate 2012 emissions assumed the presence of 0.15 heaters per well. This was based on responses from operators representing 5% of liquid hydrocarbon production in the Fort Worth area. ERG (2013) noted the higher frequency of heaters in the 2013 study relative to the 2009 BSASI and suggested that this could be due to the fact that the BSASI threshold for response was any source emitting more than 1 ton per year of NOx or 5 tons per year of NOx site-wide; some smaller heaters may not have been covered in the BSASI. Pneumatic devices emissions were estimated based on survey data collected as part of the BSASI study. EPA New Source Performance Standard Subpart OOOO requires use of low-bleed pneumatic devices (i.e. pneumatic devices that are rated at 6 standard cubic-feet of gas per hour (scf/hr) or lower) from August 23, 2011 at new or modified wells. The 2012 pneumatic device emissions do not reflect EPA New Source Performance Standard Subpart OOOO controls. Since Subpart OOOO only applies to new or modified wells installed from August 23, 2011, the effect of Subpart OOOO is expected to be small in the 2012 emission inventory. However, future year inventories will need to consider the effect Subpart OOOO on pneumatic device emissions. Pneumatic pump emissions were estimated based on EPA oil and gas emissions tool equipment profiles and operational characteristics. Pneumatic pump emissions are not currently based on data specific to the Barnett Shale and should be considered for update. Compressor engine emissions were estimated based on BSASI data. TCEQ (2014b) described this as follows: TCEQ conducted the Barnett Shale Special Inventory in 2011, obtaining data from over 8,000 sites that operated in the Barnett Shale in 2009, including information from over 1,850 compressor engines. This compressor engine data was combined with control requirements from the TCEQ Chapter 117 NOx rules to develop updated compressor engine profiles and emission factors for the DFW non-attainment counties, the Barnett Shale attainment counties, and the East Texas area. Hood County is not subject to TCEQ Chapter 117 NOx rules. Hood County compressor engine emissions are based on local survey data compiled as part of the BSASI; they are expected to be reasonably representative of Hood County emissions. Table 3-4 summarizes the methodology used to compile oil and gas emissions for each oil and gas source category as presented in ERG (2010a) and based on communication with TCEQ staff (TCEQ, 2014b). Source categories not based on Barnett Shale survey data are recommended for update except for oil related source categories which are expected to have very small emissions in Hood County and are not recommended for update. 24 March 2015 Table 3-4. Oil and gas emissions methods summary by source category. Source Category Artificial Lift (Pumpjack) Engines Brief description of how unit-level emissions were estimated* Engines were assumed to operate at any oil well greater than one year old. Statewide assumptions were implemented as follows: 70% of pumpjack engines are electric, uncontrolled emissions factors were applied (assumed that no engines meet NSPS standards), horsepower, load factor, and annual usage were estimated for a typical engine. As described above, Hood County compressor engine emissions are based on local data collected as part of the BSASI. Recommended for Update? No, crude oil production is too small to warrant additional consideration. Dehydrators Emissions per unit of gas production were estimated based on central facility dehydrator GLYCalc reports and controls. ERG (2010a) indicates that these estimates may be biased low because application of dehydrator controls at well sites may be different than at central facilities. Fugitives Components The number of devices per well were taken from Bar-Ilan et al. (2008) for the Fort Worth Basin. AP-42 emission rates per device were applied. Bar-Ilan et al. (2008) did not include Barnett Shalespecific data for component counts. Emissions were estimated based on TERC (2009). Yes, basis of current area source emissions is data collected from larger facility that meets emissions criteria for a point source; current emissions may be biased low. Yes, fugitive device counts are not based on Barnett Shale-specific data. Compressor Engines Crude Oil Storage Tanks Condensate Storage Tanks Condensate tank emissions were estimated based on emission factor and control information from the BSASI as described in ERG (2012) applied to TRC estimates of condensate production. Heaters Heater emissions were estimated based on emission factor and equipment configuration estimates in ERG (2013) and TRC estimates of well count. Tank Truck/Railcar Loading of Crude Oil and Condensate Well Venting (blowdowns) Emission rates per barrel loaded were estimated using AP-42 methodology. Assumed that all crude oil and condensate production in each county is loaded once. Well Completions Pneumatic Pumps Average blowdown frequency per well and vented volume was taken from Bar-Ilan et al. (2008) for the Fort Worth Basin based on survey data collected for the Fort Worth Basin. Average completion vented volume per well and prevalence of flaring and green completion control were taken from Bar-Ilan et al. (2008) for the Fort Worth Basin. EPA Subpart OOOO regulation requires VOC emissions from completions at hydraulically fractured wells drilled after August 23, 2011 to be controlled by flare; for wells drilled after January 1, 2015, control by green completion techniques is required. As described above, pneumatic pump emissions were estimated based on EPA oil and gas emissions tool equipment profiles and 25 No No, emissions from crude oil production are too small to warrant additional consideration. No Yes, low survey response rates may lead to inaccurate estimates of heater configuration and prevalence. No No Yes, well completion emission estimates do not include the effects of EPA Subpart OOOO regulations. Yes March 2015 Source Category Pneumatic Devices Produced Water Brief description of how unit-level emissions were estimated* operational characteristics. Pneumatic pump emissions are not currently based on data specific to the Barnett Shale. As described above, pneumatic devices emissions were estimated based on survey data collected as part of the BSASI study. Average emission factors from produced water were estimated from ENVIRON (2010a). Recommended for Update? No No * Oil and gas activity (e.g. number of wells, gas production, oil production) was taken from Texas Railroad Commission (TRC) databases and applied to unit-level estimates to develop emission inventory estimates. For example, heater emissions were estimated by multiplying the unit-level estimate of average heater emissions per well by the number of oil and gas wells in a given county. As described in Table 3-4, there are oil and gas source categories for which emission estimates rely on Barnett Shale specific data and source categories for which emission estimates rely on data that is outdated and/or not specific to the Barnett Shale. Compressor engines, the largest source of oil and gas NOx emissions Hood County, and a number of other categories rely on data collected for the Barnett Shale as part of the BSASI Study. Emissions from oil and gas production (with close to 100% of that production from the Barnett Shale) are a large component of the NOx emission inventory for Hood County; this is expected given that, in 2012, there were approximately 800 wells producing oil and gas in Hood County. Accurate characterization of oil and gas emissions is a high priority. Updating Hood County heaters, pneumatic pumps, fugitive devices, dehydrators and well completions emissions is recommended. 3.2.2 Fuel Combustion Emissions Area source fuel combustion estimates are based on state-level fuel consumption activity data which typically includes consumption from point and area sources and is obtained from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Area source-specific fuel consumption is estimated by allocating state-level consumption estimates to the county-level and reconciling county-level fuel consumption estimates with point source fuel consumption. Because the reconciliation step requires compiling both fuel consumption estimates and reconciling those fuel consumption estimates against point source fuel consumption, a separate study would need to be performed to confirm the accuracy of the TCEQ emission inventory estimates for area source fuel combustion. Given that these emissions are a relatively small component of the Hood County inventory (<4% of total NOx emissions), such a study is not recommended. 3.2.3 Gasoline Distribution Emissions Gasoline distribution emissions account for about 13% of 2012 anthropogenic area source VOC emissions. Gasoline distribution emissions are associated with transport and delivery of gasoline and include the following types of emissions: Stage I (transfer from tanker truck to service station tanks), Stage II (vehicle refueling), storage tank breathing and evaporative emissions associated with truck transport. A study of gasoline distribution emissions by ERG 26 March 2015 (ERG, 2008a) commissioned by TCEQ is the source of gasoline distribution emissions in the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory. The ERG (2008a) study surveyed 3,000 service stations in Texas, eight of which were in Hood County, to obtain station specific data for gasoline tank throughput. Based on information provided by survey respondents (23.4% response rate) about tank throughput and tank volume data available from TCEQ underground storage tank records, a model was developed that estimated annual throughput of a given gasoline storage tank based on the storage tank’s capacity by grade of fuel. Emission rates in ERG (2008a) for each process were estimated according to standard methodology for each source as described below. Uncontrolled Stage I and Stage II emission rates were assumed for Hood County. Stage II (refueling): Emission rates estimated based on MOBILE6 model. It is noted that MOBILE6 is no longer the preferred model for estimating Stage II emission rates; the current preferred model to estimate Stage II emission rates is the MOVES model. Stage I (transfer from tanker truck to service station tanks): AP-42, section 5.2 emission rates were applied for submerged filling. Storage tank breathing: AP-42, section 5.2 emission rates. Truck transport: AP-42, section 5.2 emission rates. ENVIRON compared total estimated throughput for Texas in ERG (2008a) with EIA data and found significant differences in gasoline throughput estimates (see Table 3-5). Table 3-5. Year CY2007 CY2007 CY2008 CY2012 1 Texas statewide annual gasoline consumption. Source ERG (2008b) Energy Information 1 Administration Annual Gasoline Consumption (billion gallons) 17.8 12.2 12.1 12.7 Texas State Profile and Energy Estimates, http://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=tx Additional data could be used to evaluate whether annual gasoline throughput estimates in Hood County are in reasonable agreement with records of annual gasoline consumption which should be available from a state or local agency based on sales tax records receipts. However, given the magnitude of emissions from gasoline distribution (0.93 tpd in 2012), even a decrease of 50% in these emissions would only represent a decrease of 5% in anthropogenic VOC emissions. Update of this source category is a low priority as this update will only result in changes to VOC emissions. 27 March 2015 4.0 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS REVIEW Point sources are large stationary emissions sources that exceed a specified emissions threshold. Point source emissions are frequently but not always released through an exhaust stack. In non-attainment areas, the TCEQ defines a point source to be any industrial, commercial or institutional source that emits actual levels of criteria pollutants at or above the following amounts: 10 tons per year (tpy) of VOC; 25 tpy of NOx; or 100 tpy of any of the other criteria pollutants including CO, SO2, PM10, or lead. In attainment areas of the state such as Hood County any facility that emits a minimum of 100 tpy of any criteria pollutant must submit a point source emissions inventory to the TCEQ. Each point source has a well-defined location (latitude and longitude) as well as ancillary information known as stack parameters that indicate the height at which emissions are released, the diameter of the emitting stack, and other factors. As with all other TCEQ ozone modeling emission inventories the 2012 point source inventory contains air emissions of the following ozone precursors: NOx, VOC and CO. 4.1 2012 Point Source Emissions The TCEQ developed statewide 2012 emissions from data from the TCEQ’s State of Texas Air Reporting System (STARS) and the EPA’s Acid Rain Program. While there is currently no publicly available documentation specific to this emission inventory, documentation is expected to be released by TCEQ in 2015. The STARS database is administered by the TCEQ. Each year the TCEQ sends questionnaires to all facilities that meet reporting requirements of 30 Texas Administrative Code (TAC) §101.10. The TCEQ collects point source emissions data as well as industrial process operating data. For all sources except electric generating units (EGUs), the TCEQ uses this data to compile ozone season day (OSD) emissions. The OSD emissions represent average daily emissions during the summer when ambient ozone in Texas is highest. The EPA requires all existing utility units serving generators with an output capacity of greater than 25 megawatts (MW) and all new utility units to continuously measure and record their emissions of SO2, NOx and CO2 as well as other quantities such as heat input of fuels. This is accomplished through in-stack monitoring using a Continuous Emissions Monitor (CEM). All sources must submit hourly emissions data to the EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division (CAMD) Acid Rain Program Database (ARPDB) on a quarterly basis. Typically, hourly EGU emissions are used in ozone modeling to provide the most accurate possible simulation of emissions as well as transport and fate of EGU emissions, however, TCEQ OSD average emissions were generated for EGUs from the hourly data for the emissions analysis presented here. 4.1.1 Emission Summary The TCEQ 2012 point source emission inventory is summarized below in several different ways to establish (1) the geographical distribution of point source emissions, (2) the relative importance of point source emissions by industry and (3) the relative importance of emissions 28 March 2015 sources by the mass of pollutants emitted. Appendix B includes a table of TCEQ estimates of point source emissions by facility. Figure 1-1 and Figure 1-2 in Section 1.2 above show emissions by source category in Hood County. Point sources are one of the three largest contributors to NOx emissions accounting for 29% of the total emissions in 2012. Point source emissions account for minor contributions to total VOC emissions. Figure 4-1 shows the location of Hood County point sources in the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory. Source locations were taken directly from modeling files. The size of the facility location circle represents the magnitude of facility-level NOx emissions. Figure 4-1. Map showing location of Hood County point sources in the TCEQ 2012 NOx emission inventory (facility name labels not provided for facilities emitting 0.03 tpd NOx or less). Table 4-1 shows Hood County point sources emissions by facility in the 2012 emission inventory. The Wolf Hollow I power plant is by far the largest NOx emissions source accounting 29 March 2015 for 52% of point source NOx emissions; two gas processing plants, Corvette and Cowtown are the next largest NOx emission sources accounting for 12% and 9% of NOx emissions, respectively. Three gas processing plants are the largest VOC sources; the Cowtown Gas Processing Plant, Tolar Gas Plant, and Corvette Gas Processing Plant each accounting for 27%, 25% and 14% of VOC emissions, respectively. Table 4-1. Top emitting NOx and VOC point sources in Hood County. Facility Wolf Hollow I 2012 NOx Percent of Hood County tons/ point day emissions Facility Cowtown Gas Processing Plant 2012 VOC Percent of Hood County tons/ point day emissions 0.27 27% 0.25 25% 0.14 14% 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 6% 6% 4% 4% DeCordova Power Plant 0.03 3% 2% Wolf Hollow I 0.01 1% Randle A Unit 8H 9H 0.01 1% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 <0.01 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% <1% <0.01 <1% 1.7 52% 0.4 12% 0.3 9% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 6% 5% 4% 3% Corvette Gas Processing Plant Vermont Hares Ear C Pad Taylor Swd Red Dragon Sherry P Deborah Lou Ctb Cresson Compressor Station 0.1 3% 0.1 Corvette Gas Processing Plant Cowtown Gas Processing Plant DeCordova Power Plant Tolar Gas Plant Taylor Swd Red Dragon Helton Pad Electric Power Generation (Tenaska Gateway Partners) Black Ranch A3H A4H A6H Wellborn Simon Common Bat Cresson Compressor Station Vermont Hares Ear C Pad Boggs Unit 3H 4H Taylor U Randle B Unit 20H 21H Randle A Unit 8H 9H Randle A Unit 13H West Granbury Unit 1H 2H Randle A Unit 10H 11H Kidd C Unit 5H 6H Brock Unit 4 0.1 2% 0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 2% 1% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% <0.5% DeCordova Compressor <0.1 <0.5% Tolar Gas Plant Kidd C Unit 5H 6H West Granbury Unit 1H 2H Randle A Unit 10H 11H Boggs Unit 3H 4H Taylor U Randle A Unit 13H Brock Unit 4 Randle B Unit 20H 21H Helton Pad Black Ranch A3H A4H A6H DeCordova Compressor Wellborn Simon Common Bat Next we examine the breakdown of point source emissions by type of emitting facility. Facilities are categorized by type by their Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code which is a four-digit numerical code assigned by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that is unique to each type of industry. Table 4-2 shows emissions by SIC code. The Electric Services sector, which encompasses EGUs, transmission and distribution, is the largest source of point source NOx emissions in Hood County, accounting for 58% of NOx emissions; the Crude Petroleum and 30 March 2015 Natural Gas sector accounts for 25% of point source NOx emissions. The largest contributor to point source VOC emissions is the Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas sector (58%); the Natural Gas Transmission and the Natural Gas Liquids sectors account for 25% and 14% of point source VOC emissions, respectively. Table 4-2. SIC 4911 1311 1321 4922 Totals Hood County point source emissions by industrial sector. OSD Emissions (tons/day) NOx VOC CO 1.9 <0.1 5.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.1 <0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 3.3 1.0 5.7 SIC Description Electric Services Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids Natural Gas Transmission Percent of OSD Emissions NOx VOC CO 58% 3% 88% 25% 58% 9% 12% 14% 1% 5% 25% 2% 100% 100% 100% 4.2 Point Source Emission Comparison to NEI The 2012 TCEQ emission inventory is compared to the 2011 NEI below to analyze recent trends in Hood County point source emissions. Figure 4-2 shows Hood County point source emissions totals for NOx and VOC from the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory and 2011 NEI. This comparison is made as a gross check on the magnitude of the TCEQ 2012 emission estimates. Compared to the 2011 NEI estimates TCEQ 2012 point source NOx and VOC emissions are 12% and 13% larger. Differences between the 2011 NEI and the 2012 TCEQ inventory are primarily due to differences in Wolf Hollow I emissions. Since Wolf Hollow I is a “peaking unit”, that is a unit that usually operates only when demand for electrical power on the grid approaches a peak, it is expected to have more activity and emissions during an average OSD in the summer season in the TCEQ 2012 inventory compared to annual average Wolf Hollow emissions estimates in the 2011 NEI. Figure 4-2. Hood County ozone season day point source emissions from the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ inventories. 31 March 2015 Table 4-3 shows the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ emissions of NOx and VOC, respectively, by facility for all facilities in the TCEQ 2012 emission inventory; additional sources in the 2011 NEI are described below. The largest change in NOx emissions from 2011 to 2012 is the 0.7 tpd increase Wolf Hollow I emissions. VOC emission from the largest three VOC sources, Cowtown Gas Processing Plant, Tolar Gas Plant, and Corvette Gas Processing Plant increased by 0.10 tpd, 0.11 tpd and 0.02 tpd, respectively. Table 4-3. 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ NOx ozone season day point source emissions by year by facility. Facility SIC NOx Emissions (tons per ozone season day) 2011 2012 NEI TCEQ Facility SIC VOC Emissions (tons per ozone season day) 2011 2012 NEI TCEQ 4911 1.0 1.7 Cowtown Gas Processing Plant 1311 0.17 0.27 1321 0.4 0.4 Tolar Gas Plant 4922 0.14 0.25 1311 <0.1 0.3 1321 0.12 0.14 4911 4922 1311 1311 1311 1311 0.4 0.2 0.1 <0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Corvette Gas Processing Plant Vermont Hares Ear C Pad Taylor Swd Red Dragon Sherry P Deborah Lou Ctb Cresson Compressor Station DeCordova Power Plant Helton Pad 1311 1311 1311 1311 4911 1311 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.05 0.02 0.01 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.01 1311 0.2 0.1 Boggs Unit 3H 4H Taylor U 1311 0.02 0.01 1311 <0.1 0.1 Randle A Unit 8H 9H 1311 0.03 0.01 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 4911 1311 0.01 0.01 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 <0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Brock Unit 4 1311 <0.1 <0.1 1311 0.01 <0.01 DeCordova Compressor 1311 <0.1 <0.1 Brock Unit 4 Randle A Unit 13H West Granbury Unit 1H 2H Randle B Unit 20H 21H Kidd C Unit 5H 6H Randle A Unit 10H 11H Wolf Hollow I Black Ranch A3H A4H A6H Wellborn Simon Common Bat DeCordova Compressor 1311 <0.01 <0.01 Wolf Hollow I Corvette Gas Processing Plant Cowtown Gas Processing Plant DeCordova Power Plant Tolar Gas Plant Taylor Swd Red Dragon Helton Pad Sherry P Deborah Lou Ctb Black Ranch A3H A4H A6H Wellborn Simon Common Bat Cresson Compressor Station Vermont Hares Ear C Pad Boggs Unit 3H 4H Taylor U Randle B Unit 20H 21H Randle A Unit 8H 9H Randle A Unit 13H West Granbury Unit 1H 2H Randle A Unit 10H 11H Kidd C Unit 5H 6H Table 4-4 summarizes the number of facilities by SIC in the 2011 and 2012 inventories while Table 4-5 shows emissions from sources that were not included in both inventories. The 32 March 2015 inventories are, to a large extent, consistent with each other in terms of the facilities included except for airports and airfields (SIC 4581 and 4700) which are included only in the 2011 NEI. Of all sources that were not consistently identified in all three years none of these sources emitted over 0.06 tpd of NOx or 0.02 tpd of VOC (see Table 4-5). Table 4-4. Number of facilities by SIC in the 2011 NEI and 2012 TCEQ point source emission inventory. SIC SIC Description 1311 4911 4922 1321 4581 4700 Totals Crude Petroleum and Natural Gas Electric Services Natural Gas Transmission Natural Gas Liquids Airports, Flying Fields & Airport Terminal Services Transportation Services Number of Facilities 2012 2011 TCEQ NEI 17 21 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 6 0 1 21 32 Table 4-5. NOx and VOC emissions for facilities that did not report emissions in both years, 2011 and 2012. Facility SIC Black Ranch 12H 14H Black Ranch 8H 10H Granbury Muni (air strip/ airfield) KVUE-TV (air strip/ airfield) Maberry Common Battery A Morrison Unit 1H Nassau Bay (air strip/ airfield) Parker (air strip/ airfield) Pecan Plantation (air strip/ airfield) Shelton Pvt (air strip/ airfield) The Landings (air strip/ airfield) 1311 1311 2012 EI NOX VOC - 2011 NEI NOX VOC 0.05 0.01 0.05 0.01 4700 - - <0.01 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 1311 1311 - - 0.06 <0.01 0.02 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 4581 - - <0.01 <0.01 4.3 Newly Permitted Power Plant Units Comparing potential emissions from proposed new sources to actual emissions from existing sources is difficult because the information available is fundamentally different. Actual 33 March 2015 emissions for existing sources are estimated from historical records of how those sources operated over specific time periods. For proposed new sources permit applications generally provide estimates of maximum allowable emissions under specific operating conditions. In this section we compare emission estimates for proposed and existing sources to place potential new emissions in context with existing emissions. These comparisons are uncertain and may tend to over-state the importance of emissions from proposed new sources. 4.3.1 DeCordova Power Plant Expansion The DeCordova Power Plant is located near Granbury and is owned and operated by Luminant. The facility has an operating capacity of 260 MW11. In October 2014 TCEQ approved a permit revision to the DeCordova II Power Company Steam Electric Station authorizing construction and operation of two new natural gas-fueled combustion turbine generators (CTGs) at the DeCordova Power Plant; these units would replace the existing 860 MW Unit 1 steam boiler and are expected to operate as peaking units in simple cycle mode. The two units together will have a generation capability of 460 MW. NOx control measures include the use of dry low-NOx (DLN) burners. In a DLN burner, air and fuel are pre-mixed to reduce formation of thermal NOx without need for injection of water or steam. DLN burners are considered to be the Best Available Control Technology (BACT) for peaking turbines in Texas. To minimize NOx emissions and comply with BACT the turbines are limited to 100 hours peak firing during any rolling 12 month period. Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR) technology which is proven also to achieve large emissions reductions from electric generators was not considered due to limits on maximum heat input for the CTGs and cost. It is important to note that while these facilities have been permitted there is a chance that they will not be constructed. In January 2015 Luminant spokesman Brad Watson was quoted as stating “Luminant has made no final decision to build these units. The company took these steps to position it to quickly add new generation to the market when price conditions improve to a level that incents new generation”.12 Table 4-6 shows NOx hourly maximum allowable emission rates for the two configuration options with estimated daily maximum allowable emission rates. The allowable hourly emissions were multiplied by 24 hours per day to estimate allowable daily emissions from these newly permitted and yet to be constructed units. Estimated allowable daily emissions represent potential increases of approximately 96% to 153% in NOx OSD emissions from the Hood County electric power generation (SIC 4911). Estimated allowable daily emissions represent potential increases of 18% to 28% in NOx emissions from all Hood County anthropogenic sources relative to the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory. Average daily estimates shown are not expected to represent ozone season daily estimates. Ozone season daily emission estimates will depend on 11 http://www.luminant.com/plants/pdf/DeCordova_Facts.pdf http://www.dallasnews.com/business/energy/20150128-texas-wholesale-power-prices-sliding-alongsidenatural-gas-decline.ece 12 34 March 2015 power plant electric load during ozone season; since the new units are peaking units it is expected that during summer months they may operate at a higher load than would be represented by an annual average. Table 4-6.Hourly maximum allowable emission rate (source: TCEQ Permit Number 107569) and calculated daily maximum allowable emission rate from additional permitted units at the DeCordova Power Plant. NOx Unit Unit 5 CTG (GE Option) Unit 6 CTG (GE Option) GE Option Subtotal (lb/hr) 74.98 74.98 149.96 1 (tpd ) 0.9 0.9 1.8 NOx (peak firing) 1 (lb/hr) (tpd ) 120 1.4 120 1.4 240 2.9 Unit 5 CTG (Siemens Option) 82.24 1.0 120 Unit 6 CTG (Siemens Option) 82.24 1.0 120 Siemens Option Subtotal 164.48 2.0 240 1 estimated from the hourly emission rate multiplied by 24 hours per day 1.4 1.4 2.9 4.3.2 Wolf Hollow II Power Plant Expansion The Wolf Hollow Generating Station is located in Hood County and is owned and operated by Exelon Corporation. This facility, referred to below as Wolf Hollow I, has a generation capability of 704 MW. Exelon has filed a permit for approval of construction and operation of an expansion of the Wolf Hollow Power Plant. The expansion project (referred to as Wolf Hollow II) authorizes construction of two new combined cycle natural gas-fueled CTGs equipped with pre-mix low NOx combustors and ancillary equipment. Each new CTG will have an approximate maximum base load electric power output for 330 MW and will use an SCR system to control NOx emissions and an oxidation catalyst system to control CO and VOC emissions. Construction of the units is expected to start in 2015 and operation is expected to begin in 201713. Table 4-7 shows NOx hourly maximum allowable emission rates for the Wolf Hollow II expansion. Allowable hourly emissions were multiplied by 24 hours per day to estimate allowable daily emissions from these newly permitted and yet to be constructed units. Estimated allowable daily emissions represent potential increases of approximately 42% in NOx OSD emissions from Hood County electric power generation (SIC 4911) and potential increases of 8% in NOx emissions from all Hood County anthropogenic sources based on comparison to the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory. Average daily estimates shown are not expected to represent ozone season daily estimates. Ozone season daily emission estimates depend on the power plant electric load during ozone season; since the new units are peaking units it is expected that during summer months they may operate at a higher load than would be represented by an annual average. 13 http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/exelon-generation-to-build-two-new-natural-gas-units-in-texas277448991.html 35 March 2015 Table 4-7. Hourly maximum allowable emission rate (source: TCEQ Permit Number 83638 and PSDTX1110) and calculated daily maximum allowable emission rate from additional permitted units at the Wolf Hollow II Power Plant Expansion. Emission Point No. E-ST3 E-ST4 E-AUXBLR2 Source Name GE 7FA (~170 MW) + GE 7FA (~170 MW) + Auxiliary Boiler Emergency Generator 2 Fire Water Pump 2 Air Contaminant Name NOx NOx NOx Emission Rate (lb/hour) 18 18 1.42 Calculated Daily Emission 1 Rate (tpd) 0.22 0.22 0.02 E-GEN2 NOx 23.25 0.28 E-PUMP2 NOx 5.67 0.07 Totals 66.34 0.80 1 Estimated based on hourly emission rate multiplied by 24 hours per day divided by 2,000 pounds per ton. 36 March 2015 5.0 RECOMMENDATIONS Below is a list of recommended improvements to the TCEQ 2012 area, off‐road and point source emissions inventories. These recommendations are listed below in order of importance as determined by Environ; NOx emissions updates are a higher priority than VOC emission updates because ozone formation in Hood County is known to be NOx-limited (see Conceptual Model of Ozone in Hood County [Parker et al., 2015]). Because none of these changes is expected to affect the largest Hood County emission source categories (e.g. power plants and oil and gas area source compressor engines) none of these updates is considered a high priority. 1. Emissions from the Cresson rail yard are not included in the 2012 TCEQ emission inventory; when TCEQ releases documentation of the 2012 locomotive emission inventory the methodology can be reviewed to determine why these emissions are omitted. Emissions from this rail yard should be estimated and included in future updates to the TCEQ locomotive emission inventory if emissions are significant. 2. For the following oil and gas source categories: heaters, pneumatic pumps, fugitive devices, dehydrators, and well completions, emission calculation assumptions are generally based on potentially outdated studies or not based on data that encompasses recent drilling and production activity in the Barnett Shale formation and should be updated. 3. Gasoline distribution volume estimates should be obtained from the Texas Comptroller's office to verify that reasonable gasoline throughput volumes are used in the ERG (2008a) study. Obtaining annual gasoline throughput estimates from the Texas Comptroller's office and comparing those throughput estimates to throughput estimates in ERG (2008a) is likely to require minimal effort. Construction and operation of new units at the DeCordova and Wolf Hollow power plants would increase NOx emissions in Hood County. In 2012 existing emissions from these two facilities made them the 1st and 4th largest point sources of NOx in Hood County. The ratio of VOC to NOx emissions in Hood County as well as June 2006 ozone modeling results (Johnson et al., 2015) indicate that ozone formation in Hood County is limited by the amount of available NOx. Expansion of the DeCordova and Wolf Hollow power plants through addition of new CTGs would increase NOx emissions. Because the proposed CTGs would likely operate as peaking units they would likely have their highest emissions on hot summer days when Hood County is most likely to experience high ozone. Therefore plans to develop the new units should be monitored closely and new NOx emissions analyzed to determine their magnitude, variability and potential ozone impacts. 37 March 2015 6.0 REFERENCES Baker, R. and D. Preusse, 2009. “Update of Diesel Construction Equipment Emission Estimates for the State of Texas –Phase I and II. Final report”. Prepared for Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. http://www.tceq.state.tx.us/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei /erg‐DCE_EI_Update‐20090731.pdf Bar-Ilan et al. 2008. Bar-Ilan, Amnon; Parikh, Rajashi; Grant, John; Shah, Tejas; and Pollack, Alison, 2008. Recommendations for Improvements to the CENRAP States’ Oil and Gas Emissions Inventories. Prepared by ENVIRON International Corporation for the Central States Regional Air Partnership. November. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2008a. Stage I and Stage II Gasoline Dispensing Emissions inventory: Final. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. August. http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/ 5820784003FY0807-20080831-ergi-gasline_despensing_ei.pdf Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2008b. Texas NONROAD (TexN) Model Version 1.0 User’s Guide. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. August. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2010a. Characterization of Oil and Gas Production Equipment and Develop a Methodology to Estimate Statewide Emissions: Final Report. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. November. http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/ 5820784003FY1026-20101124-ergi-oilGasEmissionsInventory.pdf Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2010b. Development of Locomotive and Commercial Marine Emissions Inventory – 1990 to 2040. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. July. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2011. Development of Texas Statewide Drilling Rigs Emission Inventories for the years 1990, 1993, 1996, and 1999 through 2040. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. August. http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public/implementation/air/am/contracts/reports/ei/ 5821199776FY1105-20110815-ergi-drilling_rig_ei.pdf Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2012. Condensate Tank Oil and Gas Activities Final Report. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. October. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2013. Upstream Oil and Gas Heaters and Boilers Final Report. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. August. Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG). 2014. Texas NONROAD Model Update and Enhancement. Prepared for the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. August. Environmental Protection Agency. EPA, 2004. “Nonroad Engine Growth Estimates”. EPA420-P04-008. United States Environmental Protection Agency. April. http://www.epa.gov/OMS/models/nonrdmdl/nonrdmdl2004/420p04008.pdf 38 March 2015 Guenther, A. B., X. Jiang, C. L. Heald, T. Sakulyanontvittaya, T. Duhl, L. K. Emmons, and X. Wang, 2012. The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN2.1): an extended and updated framework for modeling biogenic emissions, Geosci. Model Dev., 5(6), 1471-1492. Johnson, J., S. Kemball-Cook, and G. Yarwood. 2015. Photochemical Modeling of June 2006 for Hood County. Draft report prepared for: Michelle McKenzie, Hood County Clean Air Coalition, 123 E. Pearl St. #200, Granbury, TX, 76048. Parker, L., J. Zagunis, S. Kemball-Cook and G. Yarwood. 2015. Conceptual Model of Ozone in Hood County. Draft report prepared for: Michelle McKenzie, Hood County Clean Air Coalition, 123 E. Pearl St. #200, Granbury, TX, 76048. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). 2015. Personal Communication with TCEQ staff (Chris Kite). January. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ). 2014a. Personal Communication with TCEQ staff (Jim McKay). August. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), 2014b. Personal Communication with TCEQ staff (Michael Ege). August. Texas Environmental Research Consortium (TERC), October 2006, revised April 2009. VOC Emissions from Oil and Condensate Storage Tanks. Thesing, K., 2009. “Development of Emissions Inventory of Agricultural Equipment in all Texas Counties, Part Two, Final Report Task 6”. Contract No. 582-7-84008, Work Order No. 582-7-84008-FY09-02, Tracking No. 2009-47. Prepared for the TCEQ. August. 39 March 2015 APPENDIX A Hood County Off-Road and Area Source Emissions (Area sources include oil and gas area sources) March 2015 Appendix A. Hood County Off-road and Area Source Emissions Table A-1. 2012 Hood County off-road and area source NOx emissions (tons per ozone season day). Lumped Category NOx Off-road Agricultural Equipment Construction and Mining Equipment Drilling Equipment Locomotives Pleasure Craft Commercial Equipment Industrial Equipment Lawn and Garden Equipment Recreational Equipment VOC CO 0.52 0.33 0.26 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 <0.00 1.29 0.05 0.04 0.01 <0.00 0.43 0.04 <0.00 0.16 0.01 0.75 0.48 0.26 0.05 0.01 1.37 0.93 0.08 2.05 0.47 5.71 2.86 0.11 0.02 0.01 <0.00 <0.00 2.99 5.11 0.05 0.02 0.03 <0.00 <0.00 0.93 0.59 0.13 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 <0.00 <0.00 <0.00 <0.00 7.28 1.20 0.31 0.22 0.21 <0.00 <0.00 <0.00 0.01 1.96 Area Oil and Gas Fuel Combustion Waste Disposal Open Burning Structural Fires Vehicle Fires Gasoline Distribution Consumer Products Architectural Coatings Gasoline Service Stations Portable Fuel Storage Textile Products: SIC 22 Industrial Surface Coating Degreasing Pesticides Landfills Cutback Asphalt Graphic Arts Leaks/Spills Auto Body Refinishing Traffic Marking Commercial Cooking - Frying Dry Cleaning Commercial Cooking - Charbroiling Wastewater Treatment A-1 March 2015 APPENDIX B Hood County Point Source Emissions March 2015 Appendix B. Hood County Point Source Emissions Table B-1.TCEQ 2012 Hood County NOx, VOC, and CO point source emissions (tons per ozone season day). NOx Emissions (tons per ozone season day) 2012 VOC Emissions (tons per ozone season day) 2012 CO Emissions (tons per ozone season day) 2012 Facility SIC Wolf Hollow I Corvette Gas Processing Plant Cowtown Gas Processing Plant DeCordova Power Plant Tolar Gas Plant Taylor Swd Red Dragon 4911 1321 1311 4911 4922 1311 1.7003 0.4064 0.3037 0.1835 0.1625 0.1237 0.0092 0.2710 0.0061 0.0448 0.1372 0.2529 4.9959 0.0013 0.0804 0.0038 0.3218 0.0294 Helton Pad Sherry P Deborah Lou Ctb Black Ranch A3H A4H A6H Wellborn Simon Common Bat Cresson Compressor Station Vermont Hares Ear C Pad 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 0.0927 0.0855 0.0590 0.0529 0.0519 0.0252 0.0054 0.0588 0.0110 0.0109 0.0132 0.0260 0.0114 0.0174 0.0149 0.0076 0.0054 0.1077 Boggs Unit 3H 4H Taylor U Randle A Unit 8H 9H Randle B Unit 20H 21H Brock Unit 4 Kidd C Unit 5H 6H Randle A Unit 10H 11H 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 1311 0.0057 0.0038 0.0038 0.0019 0.0019 0.0019 0.0037 0.0421 0.0106 0.0622 0.0115 0.0101 0.0040 0.0236 0.0400 0.0076 0.0038 0.0038 Randle A Unit 13H West Granbury Unit 1H 2H DeCordova Compressor TOTAL 1311 1311 1311 0.0019 0.0019 <0.0001 3.2700 0.0131 0.0127 0.0016 1.0138 0.0038 0.0038 5.6874 B-1