2013 Morningstar® Andex® Chart

73.6%
78.2%
1-year periods (751)
Jun 83
86.9%
$187
Jul 83
56.8%
$157
82.7%
Jun 83
55.6%
Jun 83 $156
50.8%
$151
$76
–24.2%
Sep 74
Rolling Period Risk and Return, January 1950–June 2013
Positive Returns
90%
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5%)
(10%)
(15%)
(20%)
(25%)
(30%)
(35%)
(40%)
$61
$60
–39.2% –40.2%
Jun 82 Sep 74
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Assumes reinvestment of all income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes
only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith
and credit of the Canadian government as to the timely payment of principal and interest, while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the
other asset classes. Rolling period returns are a series of overlapping, contiguous periods of returns (12 months, 36 months, etc.) The first 12-month rolling period
is January 1950–December 1950, the second is February 1950–January 1951, and so on. The balanced portfolio was created for illustrative purposes only. It is
neither a recommendation, nor an actual portfolio. All income was reinvested and the portfolio was rebalanced every 12 months. Source: U.S. Large
1 Toronto Street, Suite 500
Toronto, Ontario M5C 2W4
+1 888 4-CHARTS
www.andexcharts.com
2013 Morningstar Andex Chart
®
®
80.5%
$84
–15.9%
Sep 81
SAMPLE
89.1%
83.9%
Apr 98
34.4%
$243
94.3%
Jul 87
30.4% Jun 85
$222 28.9%
$214
$82
$79
–6.5%
–7.7%
Mar 03
Sep 81
3-year periods (727)
Nov 80
39.3%
$270
$70
–11.1%
Aug 03
$60
–15.7%
Mar 03
90.3%
98.4%
84.9%
Jul 87
31.1%
$388
$68
–7.5%
Feb 09
100%
97.5%
Graph Legend
92.6%
10-year periods (643)
100%
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index
100%
100%
100%
100%
Median Return
100%
Most Recent Return
Mar 00
19.4%
$3,470
Feb 98 Sep 01
15.1% 14.6%
$1,656 $1,534
20-year periods (523)
100%
Understanding the Graph
Best 5%
Other 90%
Worst 5%
Aug 87 Sep 91
18.6% 18.3%
$552
$538
Oct 97
14.1%
$1,408
30% Canadian Stocks
30% U.S. Large Stocks
30% Bonds
10% Cash
$387
$338
$334
7.0%
6.3%
6.2%
Dec 74
Dec 74 $154
May 77
2.2%
Dec 69
Balanced Portfolio
$125
2.3% $110
Jun 10 1.0%
Dec 59
U.S. Large Stock Total Return Index in CAD
$60
–5.1%
Feb 09
Oct 00
22.7%
Aug 87 $771
19.5%
$594
$132
2.8%
Aug 10
DEX Long Bond Index
Balanced Portfolio
Jul 87
27.8% Sep 86
26.6%
$340
$325
$102
$95
0.4%
Feb 09 –1.0%
Sep 59
5-year periods (703)
Jul 87
27.8%
$340
$91
–1.9%
Mar 03
Stocks—Standard and Poor’s 90® index from 1926 through February 1957 and the S&P 500 index thereafter, which is an unmanaged group of securities
and considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general; S&P/TSX Composite—Canadian Financial Markets Research Center for 1950–1955
and Standard and Poor’s/TSX Composite Index total return series thereafter, which replaced the TSE300 Total Return Index on May 1, 2002; DEX Long Bond
Index—PC-Bond, a business unit of TSX, Inc.; Cash—90 Day Canada Treasury Bills, Bank of Canada. ©2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The reproduction
of part or all of this chart without prior written consent from Morningstar® is prohibited.
70%
75%
80%
72
73
74
90%
65%
85%
60%
71
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
(5%)
(10%)
(15%)
(20%)
(25%)
(30%)
(35%)
(40%)
70
2013 Morningstar Andex Chart
®
50
51
52
55
54
53
56
57
58
59
®
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
U.S.A. Recessions
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
U.S. Small Stock Total Return Index in CAD
U.S. Large Stock Total Return Index in CAD
S&P/TSX Composite Total Return Index
4.8
11.3
–10.3
Balanced Portfolio (60% Equity, 40% Fixed Income)
30 Yr
20 Yr
10 Yr
5 Yr
3 Yr
1 Yr
Risk
Since
1950
Since
Jan 1,
1950
13.8
11.3
6.7
–1.0
–0.7
–0.7
3.4
1.2
7.6
10.6
7.5
8.7
11.1
10.7
10.3
12.2
5.5
4.9
24.0
7.4
2.3
13.4
11.0
9.9
24.7
17.5
17.1
National Energy Program
–14.1
–7.5
–1.9
1st Quebec referendum 60% vote NO
4.1
8.0
2.0
5.5
8.0
10.7
0.6
1.2
9.7
10.2
0.4
18.8
1.7
0.9
1.5
12.1
1.9
0.7
1.8
9.5
2.3
1.3
1.7
9.0
2.7
2.2
2.0
9.7
4.2
3.5
1.9
12.2
6.4
5.8
2.7
1.0
3.3
1.9
#
2.6
2.8
0.5
—
7.7
6.8
5.6
3.7
9.8
3.5
4.0
—
–1.0
2.3
0.9
—
World Markets ex-U.S. Total Return Index in CAD
–8.9
2.1
–6.0
1.9
5.1
9.0
8.0
7.8
—
—
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
12
11
13
$260,597
Mexican peso crisis
capital gains exemption frozen at $100,000
Worst
5 Yrs
DEX Long Bond Index
5 Year Guaranteed Investment Certificates
90 Day Canada Treasury Bills
Consumer Price Index (Cost of Living)
94
capital gains exemption eliminated
capital gains exemption introduced
Risk
Since
1970
Since
Jan 1,
1970
Percentage Returns (June 30, 2013)
$100,000
86
13.4%
Asian currency crisis
Canada/U.S. free trade approved
Confed Life fails
Black Monday
Wall Street Reform Act
RIM rebranded as Black Berry
Berlin Wall torn down
Maple Leaf gold coin
iPhone
Northland Bank & Canadian
Commercial Bank go bankrupt
Chrysler bailout
Winter Olympics
O&Y bankruptcy
$66,953
11.0%
SAMPLE
gov’t of Canada 20 yr bond 17.75%
–7.0 *
*
GST starts
Russian debt default
since 1970
5 year mortgage 21.5%
Avro Arrow terminated
$31,976
Bre-X
capital gains tax
Japan tsunami
30% foreign content rule eliminated
WorldCom
CBC’s first colour TV broadcast
U.S. subprime crisis
Enron
Canada/U.S. auto pact signed
Canada’s first TV broadcast
9.7%
Lehman Bros bankruptcy
OAS reduced from 70 to 65
Korean War
$10,000
9.9%
Nortel low $0.67
Parti Québécois wins provincial election
OAS starts for those over 70
$36,417
Nortel high $124.50–34.2% of TSE 300
5 year GIC 17.5%
largest TSE 300 company BCE Inc. 6.6%
birth of Parti Québécois
7.7%
$6,065
9/11 attacks
PCs fall from 169 to 2 seats
CPP/QPP approved
$10,067
Income Trust tax
6.8%
GM and Chrysler files for bankruptcy
2nd Quebec referendum 50.4% vote NO
U.S. debt downgraded by S&P
$3,011
5.6%
population 13,712,000
population 34,670,352
population (over 65) 7.8%
population (over 65) 14.8%
$1,000
$996
3.7%
Growth of $100
Balanced Portfolio
with no acquisition costs or taxes
and all income reinvested
30% Canadian Stocks
30% U.S. Large Stocks
30% Bonds
10% Cash
$100
18.2%
12.7%
1.0%
2.0%
2.4%
9.1%
10.0%
3.4%
4.5%
2.6%
6.8%
10.4%
7.6%
7.3%
7.6%
17.5%
12.2%
13.7%
11.9%
6.2%
20.8%
10.6%
11.6%
6.4%
2.1%
–4.0%
5.6%
7.8%
3.1%
2.1%
Compound Annual Returns by Decade
100%
0%
(100%)
Expansion (%) Recovery (months)
3%
Contraction (%)
avg family income $12,716
1st class stamp 4¢
avg family income $38,059
1st class stamp 63¢ +GST
Ontario’s top marginal
tax rate 82.4% to 59.5%
life expectancy M: 66.5, F: 71.0
50.3%
min wage $1.00/hr
ST. LAURENT
DIEFENBAKER
TRUMAN
EISENHOWER
46.4%
min wage $2.90
PEARSON
JOHNSON
KENNEDY
avg family income $91,000
TRUDEAU
CLARK
FORD
46.4%
life expectancy M: 78.8, F: 83.3
min wage $6.85
TRUDEAU
NIXON
KC
MULRONEY
JT
CARTER
CHRETIEN
BUSH
REAGAN
min wage $10.25
HARPER
MARTIN
BUSH
CLINTON
OBAMA
TFSA started with a limit of $5,000
RRSP started with a limit of $2,500
2.4% unemployment
15%
10%
5%
0%
$4,000
7.1%
3.4%
5.3%
$7,500
$11,500 $12,500
12.7%
Prime Rate
6.7%
$13,500 $14,500 $13,500
$5,500
$14,500 $15,500 $16,500 $18,000 $19,000 $20,000 $21,000 $22,000 $22,450 $22,970
11.6%
6.7%
8.7%
7.2%
Government of Canada Long Term Bond Yield
Inflation (Cost of Living)
gold's fixed price of $35 U.S. per oz abandoned
195
104
Arab oil embargo
4.11
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
2%
0%
(2%)
22.75%
$5,500
6.2%
oil $2.57 U.S. per barrel
850
482
14.23
509
284
500
253
725
1,011
31.70
38.34
12.60
40.65
10.82
37.22
77.05
Canadian Dollar in USD
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
113.39
30.28
77.72
BP oil spill
$1.00
$0.90
$0.80
$1.0852 Nov 6
up 75% since
Jan 18 ‘02 low
$0.6202 Jan 18
52
1,895
145.31
50.51
10.40
Gross Domestic Product
51
15%
10%
5%
0%
713
297
dollar peaks at $1.06
50
100%
0%
(100%)
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Hypothetical value of $100 invested at the beginning of 1950. Assumes reinvestment of all income and no transaction costs or taxes. This is for illustrative purposes only and not indicative of any investment. An investment cannot be made directly in an index. Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the Canadian government as to the timely payment of principal and interest,
while stocks are not guaranteed and have been more volatile than the other asset classes. Furthermore, small stocks are more volatile than large stocks and are subject to significant price fluctuations, business risks, and are thinly traded. International investments involve special risks such as fluctuations in currency, foreign taxation, economic and political risks, liquidity risks, and differences in accounting and financial standards. Canadian recessions are defined as two or
more consecutive quarters of negative GDP, while U.S. recession data is from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Gold prices are from London Bullion Market Association and represent the London P.M. daily closing prices per troy ounce. Oil prices are for West Texas Intermediate Crude per barrel from Morningstar. Gold and oil prices quoted in U.S. dollars. The balanced portfolio was created for illustrative purposes only. It is neither a recommendation, nor an
actual portfolio. All income was reinvested and the portfolio was rebalanced every 12 months. Returns are compound annual returns, and risk is calculated as the standard deviation of calendar-year returns. The worst 5-year calculations are out of 703 (463 for World Markets ex U.S. stocks) rolling 60-month periods. Source: U.S. Small Stocks—Ibbotson® Small Company Stock index; World Markets ex U.S.—Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) World ex U.S. index;
U.S. Large Stocks—Standard and Poor’s 90 index from 1926 through February 1957 and the S&P 500 index thereafter, which is an unmanaged group of securities and considered to be representative of the U.S. stock market in general; S&P/TSX Composite—Canadian Financial Markets Research Center for 1950–1955 and Standard and Poor’s/TSX Composite index total return series thereafter, which replaced the TSE300 Total Return index on May 1, 2002; DEX Long Bond
Index—PC-Bond, a business unit of TSX, Inc.; 5 Year Guaranteed Investment Certificates—Bank of Canada; 90 Day Canada Treasury Bills—Bank of Canada; Consumer Price Index—Statistics Canada; Gross Domestic Product—Bank of Canada for 1950–1992 and Statistics Canada thereafter. The second-quarter 2013 GDP value is an average analysts’ estimate; Canadian Dollar in U.S. Dollars—Bank of Canada; Prime Rate—Bank of Canada; Government of Canada Long Term
Bond Yield—Bank of Canada. ©2013 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. The reproduction of part or all of this chart without prior written consent from Morningstar® is prohibited.
02
03
04
CANADIAN
RECESSIONS
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
2%
0%
(2%)