Inaugural lecture Pablo Tittonell Powerpoint
Transcription
Inaugural lecture Pablo Tittonell Powerpoint
Farming Systems Ecology Towards ecological intensification of world agriculture Prof. dr ir. Pablo A. Tittonell Inaugural lecture upon taking up the position of Chair in Farming Systems Ecology at Wageningen University on 16 May 2013 A recurring question… Can organic agriculture feed the world? • Inappropriate – it deters any fruitful debate • Misleading – complex problems require complex solutions • Irrelevant – let’s turn it around… Can conventional agriculture feed the world? Can conventional agriculture feed the world? Global hunger index State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 FAO, WFP, IFAD 870 million people suffered from chronic undernourishment between 2010-12 TSBF, 2007 Can conventional agriculture feed the world? Global hunger index Global Food Price Index State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012 FAO, WFP, IFAD 870 million people suffered from chronic undernourishment between 2010-12 TSBF, 2007 Can conventional agriculture feed the world? 140 Consomation de viande per capita Meat consumption per capita (kg/year) USA 120 France 100 Brésil 80 60 Chine 40 Monde 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 TSBF, 2007 Can conventional agriculture feed the world? 140 Consomation de viande per capita Meat consumption per capita (kg/year) USA 120 France 100 Brésil 80 60 Chine 40 Monde 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 TSBF, 2007 Can conventional agriculture feed the world? 140 Consomation de viande per capita Meat consumption per capita (kg/year) USA 120 France 100 Brésil 80 60 Chine 40 Monde 20 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 TSBF, 2007 Farming Systems Ecology Towards ecological intensification of world agriculture Outline: 1. Why does current agriculture fail at feeding the world? 2. Intensify, extensify, detoxify… (ecological intensification) 3. Farming Systems Ecology: systems, actors and landscapes 1. Why does current agriculture fail at feeding the world? 1. Worldwide, food is not produced where it is needed 2. Agricultural inputs not affordable to all farmers 3. Current diets not compatible with sustainable resource use 4. Ineffective market, storage and distribution chains 1. Why does current agriculture fail at feeding the world? The green revolution Green revolution cereals: Production x7 x3 x2 x2 Water & nutrients 1960-2010: food calories produced increased by 179% while population grew by 117% Pesticides The green revolution Cereal productivity Cereal productivity (t ha-1 year-1) France United States China Brazil Kenya Burkina Faso 8 7 6 (t ha-1 yr-1) Fertiliser use (tintensity Fertiliser use intensity ha year ) -1 (kg ha-1 yr-1) 350 300 Green revolution cereals: 5 -1 Production 250 x7 200 4 150 3 x3 2 100 x2 x2 1 0 50 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 50 Pg of carbon lost from the world soils 1970 1980 1990 & nutrients 2000 Water 1960-2010: food calories produced increased by 179% while population grew by 117% Fertiliser N use efficiency in China (Ju et al., 2009) Year Grain Production (M tonnes) N fertiliser (M tonnes) PFPN (kg/kg) Pesticies 1977 283 7.07 40.0 2005 484 26.21 18.5 % change 71% 271% -54% 2010 The green revolution Cereal productivity Cereal productivity (t ha-1 year-1) France United States China Brazil Kenya Burkina Faso 8 7 6 (t ha-1 yr-1) Fertiliser use (tintensity Fertiliser use intensity ha year ) -1 (kg ha-1 yr-1) 350 300 Green revolution cereals: 5 -1 Production 250 x7 200 4 150 3 x3 2 100 x2 x2 1 0 50 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1960 50 Pg of carbon lost from the world soils 1970 1980 1990 & nutrients 2000 Water 1960-2010: food calories produced increased by 179% while population grew by 117% Fertiliser N use efficiency in China (Ju et al., 2009) Year Grain Production (M tonnes) N fertiliser (M tonnes) PFPN (kg/kg) Pesticies With the excess fertiliser used by Chinese 1977 283 7.07 40.0 farmers 2005it is possible 484 to fertilise 26.21 the whole 18.5 of % change 271% SS Africa at a rate71% of 60 kg/ha (Ju et al., 2009) -54% 2010 Obesity outweighs hunger Food demand increases as incomes rise Obesity outweighs hunger Food demand increases as incomes rise Prevalence of undernourishment 1300 million obese people worldwide (WHO, 2012) Obesity outweighs hunger Food demand increases as incomes rise Prevalence ofobesity undernourishment Prevalence of 1300 million obese people worldwide (WHO, 2012) Obesity outweighs hunger Food demand increases as incomes rise Prevalence ofobesity undernourishment Prevalence of 1300 million obese people worldwide 65% of the world population lives in countries (WHO, 2012) where obesity kills more people than hunger (WHO, 2012) Waste causes hunger In India, 21 million tonnes of wheat is wasted each year due to inadequate storage and distribution systems (FAO, 2011) Waste causes hunger In India, 21 million tonnes of wheat is wasted each year due to inadequate storage and distribution systems (FAO, 2011) Waste causes hunger It is estimated that 30 to 50% of all food In India, 21 million tonnes of wheat is produced (or 1.2 to 2 billion tonnes) never wasted each year due to inadequate storage and distribution systems (FAO, reaches the human stomach (Gustavsson et al., 2011; FAO) 2011) Ecological intensification Change is much needed… 1. Worldwide, food is not produced where it is most needed 2. Agricultural inputs not affordable to all farmers 3. Current diets not compatible with sustainable resource use 4. Ineffective market, storage and distribution chains 2. Intensify in the South, extensify in the North, detoxify everywhere… Context Attainable productivity Intensify, extensify, detoxify… Context Poverty traps Eco-efficiency possible Inefficiency and pollution Resources/ investment ‘Ecologisation’ ‘Intensification Context Attainable productivity Intensify, extensify, detoxify… Context Poverty traps Eco-efficiency possible Inefficiency and pollution Resources/ investment ‘Ecologisation’: How to maintain productivity while reducing fossil fuel inputs? ‘Intensification’: How to increase productivity in a sustainable, affordable way? ‘Ecologisation’ ‘Intensification Context Context Attainable productivity Intensify, extensify, detoxify… Poverty traps Eco-efficiency possible Inefficiency and pollution Resources/ investment ‘Ecologisation’: How to maintain productivity while reducing fossil fuel inputs? ‘Intensification’: How to increase productivity in a sustainable, affordable way? Organic vs. conventional yields Organic vs. conventional yields Organic vs. conventional yields crop yields Organic vs. Conventional Seufert et al., 2012 Organic vs. conventional yields crop yields Organic vs. Conventional Organic vs. conventional cereal yields De Ponti et al., 2012 16" 0.84 0.77 0.75 0.79 12" 1: 10" ine l 1 12" 8" 6" 4" 2" Org.% Yield%%=%0.81%*%Conv.%Yield%4%0.15% R²%=%0.81% 0" 0" 2" 4" 6" 8" 10" 12" Conventional yield (t ha-1) 14" 16" Average yield (t ha-1) Organic yield (t ha-1) 14" Organic" 10" Conven: onal" 8" 6" 4" 2" 0" 0"to"3.3" 3.3"to"5.0" 5.0"to"6.4" 6.4"to"13.7" Seufert et al., 2012 Organic vs. conventional yields crop yields Organic vs. Conventional Research investment gap between organic and conventional agriculture? e.g., Dutch government = 4 million euro/year Monsanto = 980 dollars/year (www.monsanto.com/investors) Organic vs. conventional cerealmillion yields De Ponti et al., 2012 16" 0.84 0.77 0.75 0.79 12" 1: 10" ine l 1 12" 8" 6" 4" 2" Org.% Yield%%=%0.81%*%Conv.%Yield%4%0.15% R²%=%0.81% 0" 0" 2" 4" 6" 8" 10" 12" Conventional yield (t ha-1) 14" 16" Average yield (t ha-1) Organic yield (t ha-1) 14" Organic" 10" Conven: onal" 8" 6" 4" 2" 0" 0"to"3.3" 3.3"to"5.0" 5.0"to"6.4" 6.4"to"13.7" Seufert et al., 2012 Biological N2 fixation Maize-Pigeon pea intercrops in Southern Africa No interference Relaying effect Nutrient cycling Biological N2 fixation Maize-Pigeon pea intercrops in Southern Africa Residual effects on maize Relaying effect Nutrient cycling Maize grain yield (t ha-1) No interference Ruzinamhodzi et al., 2012 Biological N2 fixation Maize grain yield (t ha-1) Maize-Pigeon pea intercrops in Southern Africa Residual effects on maize More than No interference Relaying effect fivefold yield Nutrient cycling increase without fertilisers! Ruzinamhodzi et al., 2012 Designing agricultural systems by mimicking nature Agricultural field (millet/cowpea) Savannah vegetation (under use) Net primary productivity = 1 to 2 t/ha/year Net primary productivity = 10 to 20 t/ha/year Designing agricultural systems by mimicking nature Agricultural field (millet/cowpea) Savannah vegetation (under use) Net primary productivity = 1 to 2 t/ha/year Net primary productivity = 10 to 20 t/ha/year Simplistic approaches will not work… 3. Farming systems ecology: systems, landscapes and actors Simplistic approaches will not work… 1. The yield gap between organic and conventional agriculture is to large extent a research investment gap 2. Great potential to intensify symbiotic N fixation; yet nutrient management is a bottleneck for up-scaling ecological farming 3. Green revolution technologies do not work on degraded or fragile soils: need to draw inspiration from nature 4. We need systems approaches that embrace landscape-level processes and the communities that manage and/or live on them 3. Farming systems ecology: systems, landscapes and actors Produce more, but produce differently… Specialized System Specialized System Output Input Output Input Externalities Ecoefficiencies Externalities Agro-diverse System Input Output Externalities Produce more, but produce differently… Specialized System Specialized System Output Input Output Input Externalities Ecoefficiencies Externalities Agro-diverse System Input Output Externalities Produce more, but produce differently… Specialized System Specialized System Output Input Output Input Externalities Ecoefficiencies Externalities Agro-diverse System Input Output Pursuing narrowly-defined efficiency reduces systems resilience (Walker et al., 2009) Externalities Ecological intensification requires systems re-design Reality (current agroecosystems) Problems Design Questions Structure Analysis Function Purpose Function Knowledge Purpose Synthesis Conclusions New facts, new realities Structure Decisions Adapted from: Goewie, 1993 Building upon local agroecological knowledge Rice-ducks-fish-azolla - Indonesia Khumairoh et al., 2012 Building upon local agroecological knowledge Rice-ducks-fish-azolla - Indonesia Khumairoh et al., 2012 Building upon local agroecological knowledge Rice-ducks-fish-azolla - Indonesia Rice yield (t ha-1) at increasing levels of complexity 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Rice Rice + ducks h Rice + Rice + Rice + Rice + Rice + Rice + Rice + compost ducks + compost ducks + ducks + ducks + ducks + fis + azolla compost fish + compost fish + compost + azolla compost + azolla Khumairoh et al., 2012 Native resources and local knowledge in the Sahel Facilitation of crop production through association with native woody species (Lahmar et al., 2012) Piliostigma reticulatum Guiera senegalensis Native resources and local knowledge in the Sahel Facilitation of crop production through association with native woody species (Lahmar et al., 2012) Understanding traditional soil fertility management Piliostigma reticulatum Guiera senegalensis Understanding/optimising local practices Thesis: Georges Félix, FSE Understanding/optimising local practices NS-No shrub (17x25 = 425 planting pits or zai holes) LSD-Low Shrub Density, Spacing (6,4 x 3,2) m 414 planting pits or zai holes and 11 shrubs atum a reticul NT-HSD NT-LSD Z-LSD Z-MSD Z-MSD ment de ruisselle nya Faso Burkina Rue du Allée 1-1 Thesis: Georges Félix, FSE des eaux Evacuation Z-NS Z-HSD Rue du CIRAD NT-HSD Z-HSD Ke Rue du dation 2iE Rue de la Fon opéenne l'Union Eur Boulevard de Z-LSD Z-MSD NT-LSD que de l'Afri Avenue NT-LSD NT-HSD Z-HSD Z-MSD Z-NS Z-LSD NT-LSD scar Madaga Rue de Z-NS Z-LSD Z-NS NT-HSD Z-HSD HSD-High Shrub Density, Spacing (1,6 x 3,2)m 393 planting pits and 32 shrubs e Zimbabw Rue du .4 MSD-Medium Shrub Density, Spacing (3,2 x 3,2)m 407 planting pits and 18 shrubs NORD stigm de Pilio Réserve Sustainable intensification pathways Cortez-Arriola et al. (2013) Farm productivity gap Ecological services Ecological services Sustainable intensification pathways Productivity per animal Cortez-Arriola et al. (2013) Farm productivity gap Ecological services Ecological services Sustainable intensification pathways Productivity per animal Cortez-Arriola et al. (2013) Productivity per unit labour Farm productivity gap Ecological services Ecological services Sustainable intensification pathways a. Trade-offs at farm scale 2400 Labor balance (h) 2000 Labour (h) Productivity per animal Groot et al., 2012. Agricultural Systems. 1600 1200 800 400 0 (kg/ha) (kg/ha) matter balance OrganicSOM -20 0 20 40 60 80 500 500 c. b. 250 250 0 0 -250 -250 Cortez-Arriola et al. (2013) Productivity per unit labour -500 -500 -20 0 20 40 60 80 0 400 losses (kg/ha) loss(kg/ha) nitrogen SoilN Farm productivity gap 80 1200 1600 2000 2400 80 80 d. 800 e. f. 70 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 -20 0 20 40 60 Operating Profitprofit (K$)(k€) 80 Ecological services 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Labor balance Labour (h)(h) 2400 0 -500 -250 0 250 500 Organic matter balance (kg/ha) SOM (kg/ha) Ecological services Sustainable intensification pathways a. Trade-offs at farmto scale Exploring strategies narrow the 2400 Labor balance (h) 2000 Labour (h) Productivity per animal farm productivity gap Groot et al., 2012. Agricultural Systems. 1600 1200 800 400 Environment Profitability Compromise 0 (kg/ha) (kg/ha) matter balance OrganicSOM -20 0 20 40 60 80 500 500 c. b. 250 250 0 0 -250 -250 Cortez-Arriola et al. (2013) Productivity per unit labour -500 -500 -20 0 20 40 60 80 0 400 losses (kg/ha) loss(kg/ha) nitrogen SoilN Farm productivity gap 80 1200 1600 2000 2400 80 80 d. 800 e. f. 70 70 70 60 60 60 50 50 50 40 40 40 30 30 30 20 20 20 10 10 10 0 0 -20 0 20 40 60 Operating Profitprofit (K$)(k€) 80 Ecological services 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Labor balance Labour (h)(h) 2400 0 -500 -250 0 250 500 Organic matter balance (kg/ha) SOM (kg/ha) Ecological services Ecological intensification of grazing systems Theses: Andrea Ruggia (INIA) Pablo Modernel (UR) 500,000 km2 65 million heads of cattle 430,000 farms 800 grasses and 200 legumes species Regional economic relevance Ecological intensification of grazing systems Theses: Andrea Ruggia (INIA) Pablo Modernel (UR) 500,000 km2 65 million heads of cattle 430,000 farms 800 grasses and 200 legumes species Regional economic relevance Ecological intensification of grazing systems Environmental impact of different intensification pathways Modernel et al., sbmtd. Traditional system Feedlot Theses: Andrea Ruggia (INIA) Pablo Modernel (UR) GHG emissions Energy consumption 500,000 km2 65 million heads of cattle 430,000 farms Pesticide Soil erosion N surplus andP200 surplus 800 grasses legumes species contamination Regional economic relevance Designing pest suppressive landscapes Hawassa, Ethiopia Thesis: Yodit Kabede erons, bien que l’analyse de la déviance ne montre pas d’effet des sous-zones écologiques e niveau d’infestation. Designing pest suppressive landscapes Pour visualiser les différences spatialisées dans la dynamique d’infestation, les nées sont comparées selon les sous-zones écologiques dans la Figure 20. Spatio-temporal variation Index d'infestation moyen Infestation index 4,5 4 3,5 Zones 3 ZE 1 2,5 ZE 2 2 ZE 3 1,5 ZE 4 1 0,5 0 S1 1 Week S2 2 Week S3 3 Week S4 4 Week S5 5 Week e 20. I ndex d’infestation moyen des champs en fonction des semaines de relevés, pour les quatr e zones giques. K ajulu, K enya, 2011 Sur la base de ces données, des dynamiques d’infestation différentes se dessinent selon sous-zones écologiques. La sous-zone écologique 3 présente en effet un index festation supérieur à celui des autres sous-zones, en début de période : jusqu’à la maine. Or cette sous-zone écologique est caractérisée par un intense réseau de haies, et mosaïque de champs très fine. Si la concentration en plantes hôtes des pucerons Aphis civora et Aphis fabae joue le rôle de refuge pour les pucerons, ceci pourrait expliquer une station plus importante dans les champs, dès le début du cycle de culture du haricot. Concernant l’infestation en sous-zone écologique 4, elle commence à un niveau plus le mais sa pente est plus forte. Or cette zone-ci se caractérise par l’absence de haies, et un sage plus ouvert Ethiopia que les autres zones. La sous-zone écologique 3 pourrait donc jouer le Hawassa, de réservoir à pucerons pour les autres sous-zones alentours. Thesis: Kabede Les indexYodit d’infestation dessous-zones écologiques 1 et 2 sont représentés dans ce erons, bien que l’analyse de la déviance ne montre pas d’effet des sous-zones écologiques e niveau d’infestation. Designing pest suppressive landscapes Pour visualiser les différences spatialisées dans la dynamique d’infestation, les nées sont comparées selon les sous-zones écologiques dans la Figure 20. Spatio-temporal variation Index d'infestation moyen Infestation index 4,5 4 3,5 Zones 3 ZE 1 2,5 ZE 2 2 ZE 3 1,5 ZE 4 1 0,5 0 Study area S1 1 Week S2 2 Week S3 3 Week S4 4 Week S5 5 Week e 20. I ndex d’infestation moyen des champs en fonction des semaines de relevés, pour les quatr e zones giques. K ajulu, K enya, 2011 Sur la base de ces données, des dynamiques d’infestation différentes se dessinent selon sous-zones écologiques. La sous-zone écologique 3 présente en effet un index festation supérieur à celui des autres sous-zones, en début de période : jusqu’à la maine. Or cette sous-zone écologique est caractérisée par un intense réseau de haies, et mosaïque de champs très fine. Si la concentration en plantes hôtes des pucerons Aphis civora et Aphis fabae joue le rôle de refuge pour les pucerons, ceci pourrait expliquer une station plus importante dans les champs, dès le début du cycle de culture du haricot. Concernant l’infestation en sous-zone écologique 4, elle commence à un niveau plus le mais sa pente est plus forte. Or cette zone-ci se caractérise par l’absence de haies, et un sage plus ouvert Ethiopia que les autres zones. La sous-zone écologique 3 pourrait donc jouer le Hawassa, de réservoir à pucerons pour les autres sous-zones alentours. Thesis: Kabede Les indexYodit d’infestation dessous-zones écologiques 1 et 2 sont représentés dans ce erons, bien que l’analyse de la déviance ne montre pas d’effet des sous-zones écologiques e niveau d’infestation. Designing pest suppressive landscapes Pour visualiser les différences spatialisées dans la dynamique d’infestation, les nées sont comparées selon les sous-zones écologiques dans la Figure 20. Spatio-temporal variation Index d'infestation moyen Infestation index 4,5 4 3,5 Zones Exploration of alternative landscape structures 3 ZE 1 2,5 ZE 2 2 ZE 3 1 0,5 0 Study area S1 1 Week S2 2 Week S3 3 Week S4 4 Week S5 5 Week Biocontrol 1,5 ZE 4 e 20. I ndex d’infestation moyen des champs en fonction des semaines de relevés, pour les quatr e zones giques. K ajulu, K enya, 2011 Sur la base de ces données, des dynamiques d’infestation différentes se dessinent selon sous-zones écologiques. La sous-zone écologique 3 présente en effet un index festation supérieur à celui des autres sous-zones, en début de période : jusqu’à la maine. Or cette sous-zone écologique est caractérisée par un intense réseau de haies, et mosaïque de champs très fine. Si la concentration en plantes hôtes des pucerons Aphis civora et Aphis fabae joue le rôle de refuge pour les pucerons, ceci pourrait expliquer une station plus importante dans les champs, dès le début du cycle de culture du haricot. Concernant l’infestation en sous-zone écologique 4, elle commence à un niveau plus le mais sa pente est plus forte. Or cette zone-ci se caractérise Current par l’absence de haies, et un sage plus ouvert Ethiopia que les autres zones. La sous-zone écologique 3 pourrait donc jouer le Hawassa, de réservoir à pucerons pour les autres sous-zones alentours. landscape Thesis: Kabede Les indexYodit d’infestation dessous-zones écologiques 1 et 2 sont représentés dans ce Pesticide need Groot and Rossing, 2010 Collective decision making on natural resources Mapa de la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Sepultura. Fuente: CONANP Simulation and gaming for improving local adaptive capacity; The case of a buffer-zone community in Mexico E.N. Speelman Collective decision making on natural resources Mapa de la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Sepultura. Fuente: CONANP Simulation and gaming for improving local adaptive capacity; The case of a buffer-zone community in Mexico E.N. Speelman Collective decision making on natural resources Mapa de la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Sepultura. Fuente: CONANP Simulation and gaming for improving local adaptive capacity; The case of a buffer-zone community in Mexico E.N. Speelman Collective decision making on natural resources Mapa de la Reserva de la Biosfera de la Sepultura. Fuente: CONANP Simulation and gaming for improving local adaptive capacity; The case of a buffer-zone community in Mexico E.N. Speelman Farming Systems Ecology (FSE) research strategy Guiding principles • • • • Discipline Actors Ecological intensification Systems design as core business Agroecology Interface between ecology and society Parallel strategies for the North (Europe) and Systems Landscapes the South (Tropics) Farming Systems Ecology Collaboration Rural sociology Farming systems ecology Crop & weed ecology Soil quality group Organic plant Animal production breeding systems Innovation & communication studies Plant production systems Farm technology group FSE in the world (PhD theses) Actors Agroecology Systems Landscapes Farming Systems Ecology On-going Inherited (France) Starting 2012/3 Communication and image Photo: Steve Sherwood A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides Photo: Clarin Rural An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Communication and image Photo: Steve Sherwood A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides Photo: Clarin Rural An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Estancia Laguna Blanca, Entre Rios, Argentina Ecological farming on 3000 ha Communication and image Photo: Steve Sherwood A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides Photo: Clarin Rural An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Estancia Laguna Blanca, Entre Rios, Argentina Ecological farming on 3000 ha Communication and image Photo: Steve Sherwood A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides Photo: Clarin Rural An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Estancia Laguna Blanca, Entre Rios, Argentina Ecological farming on 3000 ha Communication and image Photo: Steve Sherwood A conventional farmer purchasing pesticides Photo: Clarin Rural An agroecological farmer inspecting his intercrop Concluding remarks Ecologically intensive farming is more than just conventional farming without inputs It requires: - ecological engineering at farm and landscape level - ability to engage with local actors and learn from them - systems approaches that embrace the complexity of social-ecological interactions It needs: - Serious public funding that compensates for the investment gaps Intensify in the South, extensify in the North, detoxify everywhere…