ASEAN Business Optimism Index

Transcription

ASEAN
Business Optimism Index
Quarter 2 2015
INDONESIA | Business-friendly policies strengthen outlook
MALAYSIA
| Confidence rebounds slightly from historical low
PHILIPPINES | Momentum eases for Southeast Asia’s fastest
SINGAPORE | Economy turns hopeful with service sector gains
THAILAND
| Expectations cool down as headwinds lie ahead
VIETNAM
| Businesses expect growth to stay the course
G R O W I N G R E L AT I O N S H I P S T H R O U G H D ATA
BUSINESS OPTIMISM INDEX
INDONESIA
Quarter 2 2015
Business-friendly policies
strengthen outlook
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
Businesses expect to expand this quarter
with continued optimism. The overall index
registers at almost 39% (4% higher y-o-y, 6%
lower q-o-q).
Most optimism parameters are flattish from
last quarter. Employment is the only one that
has risen.
Growth is broad-based across multiple sectors
on the back of state support.
According to our Q2 2015 Business Optimism Index
(BOI), the composite stands at +38.81%, slightly down
5.92 percentage points from the previous quarter (q-o-q) at
+44.73%. Despite tapering sentiment amid the challenging
times ahead, a net weighted 17.11% of respondents were
optimistic that their business will have better performance
this quarter, while pessimists were contained at only 4%.
Most economic sectors are projected to outpace growth
achieved in the previous quarter. Gains are roundly
expected in the agricultural, livestock, forestry and fisheries
sectors, mining and quarrying, as well as transportation,
warehousing, information and communications. The first
three are expected to improve on the back of better food
crop harvests and favorable weather conditions.
Mining and quarrying will benefit from the continuation of
mineral exports after renewal of the agreement between the
government and Freeport (affiliate of Freeport-McMoRan).
Transportation, information and communications will also
take advantage of escalating economic activity and the
requirement to upgrade information and communications
infrastructure. Conversely, the construction sector is
projected to decelerate while waiting for the realization of
government infrastructure projects currently under tender.
The government has issued a number of policies to improve
economic performance and continue national economic
structural reform, namely: tax incentives for export and
companies spending their dividends on re-investments, an
anti-dumping policy by imposing a temporary anti-dumping
tax and a temporary security import tax on imported
products that are traded unfairly through dumping to protect
domestic industries. On mining and natural resources, the
government would implement a Letter of Credit system
policy for companies operating in coal, oil and gas and
crude palm oil business. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources plans to introduce regulation to increase the use
of biofuel as a mixture for diesel oil from 15% to 20%. In
tourism, a free-visa facility to 30 new countries starting in
April will boost foreign tourists visiting Indonesia.
Indonesia’s economic growth in Q1 2015, according to
Bank Indonesia (BI), is expected to be around 5.0-5.1%; full
year in the range of 5.4-5.8%. Inﬂation in 2015 is projected
within the target corridor of 4±1%. The government also
hopes that the new economic policy package will ease the
current account deficit, which has been weighing on the
Rupiah exchange rate. In general, economic expansion is
bolstered primarily by stronger investment growth in line
with the actuation of several infrastructure projects and a
more attractive investment climate, coupled with tenacious
consumption and gradually improving exports.
INDONESIA
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
The resultant optimism for Volume of Sales Stands
at 19.33% in Q2, down 0.67 percentage point q-o-q
and 5.67 percentage points y-o-y. Utilities, Finance
and Agriculture are the most optimistic sectors for
this parameter.
The majority of the respondents (66.0%) expect no
change in their sales volume, while 7.3% actually
anticipate a decline. Around 26.7% of respondents
expect an increase in Q2 2015.
N E T PR O F I T
The resultant Optimism for Net Profit stands at
19.00% in Q2, down 0.33 percentage point q-o-q
and 8 percentage points y-o-y. Utilities, Finance and
Agriculture are the most optimistic sectors for this
parameter, similar to Volume of Sales.
The majority of respondents (69.0%) assume no change
of profitability in their Q2 Outlook. Nearly 25.0% of
the respondents anticipate net profit to increase, while
around 6% respondents expect it to decrease.
S EL L I N G P RI CE
The resultant Optimism for Selling Price stands
at 12.67% in Q2, down 6.67 percentage points
q-o-q and up 2.67 percentage points y-o-y. Utilities,
Transportation and Agriculture are the most
optimistic sectors for this parameter.
The majority of respondents (85.3%) expect no
change in their selling prices throughout Q2. About
13.7% of respondents expect to raise price while only
1% respondents plans to reduce.
INDONESIA
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
The resultant Optimism for New Orders stand at
18.00% in Q2, down 2.0 percentage points q-o-q
and 7 percentage points y-o-y. Utilities, Finance and
Transportation are the most optimistic sectors for
this parameter.
The majority of respondents (68.7%) assume no
change of their order book this quarter. Around
24.7% of all respondents expect their orders to
increase, while 6.3% sees a decline in booking.
I N VE N T O RY L E VE L S
The resultant optimism for Inventory Level stands at
4.33% in Q2, down 1 percentage point q-o-q and 3.67
percentage points y-o-y. Wholesale and Agriculture are
the most optimistic sectors for this parameter.
The majority of respondents (92.3%) are expecting to
maintain their current inventory levels. Around 6.0%
of all respondents plan to increase their inventory,
while only 1.7 % respondents plan to reduce.
EM P L OY M EN T
The resultant optimism for Employment stands at
5.33% in Q2, up 0.33 percentage points q-o-q and
down 3.67 percentage points y-o-y. Agriculture and
Transportation are the most optimistic sector for this
parameter.
The majority of respondents (92.0%) anticipate no
change in the size of their workforce. Around 6.7% of
the respondents see improvement of their workforce,
while only 1.3% of them anticipate the lowering
number of employees.
INDONESIA
Quarter 2 2015
Business Optimism Index (BOI) Report
The Business Optimism Index (BOI) report is a measure of business confidence in the economy. Released quarterly,
it measures the pulse of the business community and is one of the most effective ways to track how the business
community perceives the business environment, and where they think it is going. Over time, this quarterly survey has
emerged as a leading indicator of turning points in economic activity in countries which it is published.
Methodology
For the purpose of conducting the survey, a sample is randomly selected from D&B database, consisting of companies
belonging to the following sectors including Agriculture, Construction, Electric, Finance, Manufacturing, Mining,
Services, Transportation, and Wholesalers.
All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding their expectations as to whether the
following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register an increase, decline or show no
change in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year: Volume of Sales, Net Profits, Selling
Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees. The individual indices are then calculated by subtracting the
percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless otherwise stated, increases and
decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter.
Composite Business Optimism Index
Dun & Bradstreet introduced the Composite Business Optimism Index from Q1 2010. The purpose of the Composite
Business Optimism Index is to capture the aggregate behaviour of all the six individual indices. Each of the six
parameters has a weight assigned to it. For calculating the Composite Business Optimism Index, the positive responses
for each of these parameters for the period under review are expressed as a proportion of positive responses in the
base period (Q2 1999). The parameter weights are then applied to these ratios and the results aggregated to arrive at
the Composite Business Optimism Index. For the purpose of the survey, Q1 is the period between January and March,
Q2 is the period between April and June, Q3 is the period between July and September and Q4 is the period between
October and December each year. We trust that you will find the D&B Optimism Index as a useful tool in your day-today decisionmaking. Please do give us your feedback in this regard.
About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)
Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE: DNB) grows the most valuable relationships in business. By uncovering truth and meaning from data, we connect customers
with the prospects, suppliers, clients and partners that matter most, and have since 1841. Nearly ninety percent of the Fortune 500, and companies of
every size around the world, rely on our data, insights and analytics. For more about Dun & Bradstreet, visit DNB.com.
For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.id, or contact our Customer Service Center at +62 21 57900979, or email us [email protected].
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2015. All rights reserved.
MALAYSIA
Quarter 2 2015
Confidence rebounds
slightly from historical low
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
The latest survey reveals that business
confidence inched up marginally from 13.09
percentage points in Q1 2015 to 13.40 for Q2
2015, despite nationwide implementation of
Goods & Services Tax this quarter.
Although 5 out of the 6 optimism parameters
are in expansionary mode for Q2 2015,
upward movement remains sluggish. To put
in perspective, the overall index dipped from
20.17% to 13.40% compared to a year ago.
Wholesale and services are overall the most
positive sectors for the quarter ahead.
According to Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Malaysia,
businesses have regained some optimism after hitting
an all-time low in Q1 2015, since this survey began 9
quarters ago. Overall business optimism is still well
within the positive region driven mainly by sustained
domestic demand from the wholesale and services
sectors, which are key drivers of the Malaysian economy.
However, we have noticed moderation in business
confidence as the BOI has been hovering around the 13
percentage point mark for the past four quarters. This
was unlike two years ago when the BOI was between the
20% to 30% range.
We are expecting outlook to be cautious in the coming
months as firms have to contend with the transitional
effects being brought about by the recent implementation
of the Goods and Services Tax. It is anticipated that the
tax reform may affect their overall competitiveness since
it will add on to their compliance costs.
Businesses seem fairly bullish on topline and bottomline
growth. On q-o-q basis, volume of sales climbed from
17.52% to 24.0% in Q2 2015 while net profits rose from
14.50% to 24.0% in Q2 2015. They are more cautious
when it comes to selling prices and employment, as
both are expected to moderate downwards. Inventory
levels will probably shrink, but new orders from
manufacturers will take a turn for the better. On y-o-y
basis however, we see that sales and net profits have
sharply decelerated from levels a year ago. Only selling
prices and employment increased compared to last year.
The wholesale sector is the most optimistic with four
parameters trending up. Sentiments within the sector
are relatively upbeat as they anticipate net profits
to increase significantly from 7.89% in Q1 2015 to
29.55% in Q2 2015. Volume of sales are also expected
to climb from +26.32% to 31.82% (q-o-q) and selling
prices from 18.42% to 29.55% (q-o-q).
In light of the downturn arising from the recent spate
of aviation accidents, transportation ranked as the least
optimistic sector with 3 parameters underperforming
significantly. Volume of sales slides into the negative
region from 11.11% to -20.0% (q-o-q), selling price
from 22.22% to 8.00% (q-o-q) and employment levels
from 18.52% to 12.00% (q-o-q). Net profits within the
sector remain contractionary in Q2 2015.
MALAYSIA
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
N ET P ROFI T
S ELLING P RI CE
MALAYSIA
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
Note: Manufacturing is the only sector which furnishes information on their new order assessment.
IN VEN TORY L EV EL S
EMPL OY M EN T
MALAYSIA
Quarter 2 2015
Methodology
Services, Transportation, and Wholesalers. All the respondents in the survey are asked six standard questions regarding
their expectations as to whether the following critical parameters pertaining to their respective companies will register
an increase, decline or show no change in the ensuing quarter as compared to the same quarter in the prior year:
Volume of Sales, Net Profits, Selling Prices, New Orders, Inventory Levels, and Employees. The individual indices are
then calculated by subtracting the percentage of respondents expecting decreases from those expecting increases. Unless
otherwise stated, increases and decreases in indices represent changes from the previous quarter.
For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Eugene Zachariah Tan at +65 6439 6670, or email [email protected].
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 2 2015
Momentum eases for
Southeast Asia’s fastest
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
Although business confidence is showing
some signs of easing, the overall index is
positively buoyant. The general expectation is
that growth momentum will continue.
All 6 optimism parameters have ‘normalized’
slightly in Q2 2015 from their previous highs
in Q1. The highest percentage decline is in
New Orders.
Transportation, communication and utilities are
the most optimistic sectors.
According to Bloomberg News Consensus Survey, the
Philippines is set to become the second fastest growing
economy in Asia after China for 2015, and the fastest
among Southeast Asian nations. It is no longer the “sick
man” of Asia as once reputed, but the “strong man”.
When Nielsen conducted a survey on individuals last
year, Filipinos came in as the second most optimistic
consumers in the world, a spot they share with
Indonesia. Dun & Bradstreet (D&B) Philippines found
a similar vein of high optimism in the last few quarters
among businesses. For Q2 2015, the Business Optimism
Index (BOI) may have eased down slightly but the vast
majority remain positive in their outlook.
The momentum seems sustainable. Low oil prices
and strong remittance inflows have been favorable
to growth. Interest rates were kept unchanged for
the second straight time February 2015. The Bangko
Sentral ng Pillipinas (BSP) had raised rates twice last
year to keep prices in check. But inflation fears, amid
concerns that poor weather conditions in the early part
of 2015 will push food prices, have been kept at bay.
The inflation rates recorded in Jan-Feb were well within
BSP’s acceptable range. The peso is on an appreciating
trend against most currencies.
Of more interest to investors is President Benigno
Aquino, who has suffered a large drop in approval
ratings (from 59% in November to 38% in March, his
lowest approval rating on record) as a consequence of
a botched anti-terror operation earlier in the year that
resulted in the deaths of 44 policemen, and in which he
appears to have bypassed the normal chain of command.
With Aquino not allowed to seek another six-year
term after the current mandate runs out in 2016, his
government will struggle to push through the more
difficult reforms.
For companies, the most significant fallout from a
weakening of Aquino’s leadership is that some of the
more business-friendly reforms his administration was
planning to implement will be cancelled or delayed.
The government has submitted 26 priority measures
to congress, amongst these an amendment to speed up
infrastructure spending and customs modernisation, and
the project of offering tax breaks and other incentives to
car manufacturers shifting production to the Philippines
is at an advanced stage of implementation. The fight
against corruption could also suffer a setback if Aquino’s
popularity falls so much that the next elected president
will not be a political ally and reverses Aquino’s reforms.
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
Optimism level on volume of sales across all sectors
slightly went down in Q2 2015 compared to Q1 of
2015.
Transportation, communication & utilities registered
the highest optimism level with 97.6% of respondents
expecting higher sales this quarter.
Some respondents are expecting their volume of sales
to remain unchanged this coming Q2.
N E T PR O F I T
In tandem with the decreased optimism level for
volume of sales, optimism level for Net Profits also
fell down across all sectors.
Despite the slight drop, only 2% of the respondents
anticipate decrease in Net Profits this coming quarter.
Optimism level on Selling Price for all sectors
continuously declines from Q3-2014’s 93%, Q42014’s 30%, Q1-2015’s 19% to 15% in Q2-2015.
84% of respondents expect Selling Prices to remain
unchanged from last quarter.
91% respondents from Wholesale & Retail sector
think it likely that there will be no movement on
selling prices in Q2 of 2015.
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
Optimism level on New orders fell down by 9.33%
after compared to Q1-2015.
Only 10% of the respondents across all sectors expect
New Orders to remain unchanged this Q2-2015.
Most of the respondents are are still expecting new
clients and new projects.
Recorded a 9% decrease on Optimism Level across all
sectors.
Only 10% of respondents across all sectors anticipate
their inventory level to remain unchanged.
1
The sample size for inventory question does not include Service sector
EM P L OY M EN T
Optimism level on number of employees is
continuously decreasing. A 7% decrease is recorded
in Q2-2015.
Despite of the decrease on number of employees’
optimism level, 83% of the respondents expect to
keep their workforce unchanged.
PHILIPPINES
Quarter 2 2015
Methodology
For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.ph, or contact our Customer Service Center at +632.907.6080, or email us [email protected].
SINGAPORE
Quarter 2 2015
Economy turns hopeful
with service sector gains
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
Following three consecutive quarters of
decline, business confidence has shown signs of
improvement for the first time since Q3 2014.
The overall index made notable gains, rising
from 1.11 percentage points in Q1 2015 to 9.0
percentage points in Q2 2015.
4 out of the 6 optimism parameters have risen
in Q2 2015, compared to 3 in last quarter. This
time last year however, all 6 were expansionary.
Services emerged as the most optimistic sector
for the second consecutive quarter, followed by
the financial industry.
Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB) – After
three quarters of sustained decline, we are finally
seeing a reversal in the downtrend of business optimism
here in Singapore. While the signs are encouraging,
local businesses have yet to regain the same level of
confidence a year ago when overall BOI was well above
the 10 percentage point mark. With the exception of
the financial and services sectors, the improvements in
business optimism within the others sectors have been
marginally visible. As companies have to contend with
both external headwinds and transitional frictions
brought about by the restructuring of the domestic
economy, we expect the outlook to remain cautiously
optimistic in the coming months.
The economy is moving into an era where managing
growth has become ever more crucial. Firms can no
longer rely on traditional business models but rethink
their growth strategies to enable them to be competitive
and yet remain sustainable at the same time. It is no
longer just about cost management but rather a focus on
demand creation which could potentially expand revenue
sources for domestically-oriented companies. The recent
Budget 2015 initiatives should serve as an impetus for
local firms to further innovate and internationalize their
business activities.
The MAS has recently revised its growth forecast for
Singapore’s economy from 3.1 per cent to 2.8 per
cent this year. The finance and insurance sector is the
only industry which has reported an improved growth
forecast. Riding on the back of robust activity and gains
within the fund management industry, overall optimism
is expected to improve in Q2 2015. Volume of sales and
net profits registered a significant jump in net optimism.
Hiring sentiments within the industry also took a
positive turn.
On the other hand, manufacturers anticipate new orders
to remain contractionary, mainly due to pullback in
overall production activity. The Singapore’s Purchasing
Managers’ Index contracted further to a reading of 49.7
points this February. Outlook for the transportation
sector also remains bleak amid a contraction within the
air transport segment and weak demand for maintenance,
repair and operations activities.
SINGAPORE
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
N ET P ROFI T
S ELLING P RI CE
SINGAPORE
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
Note: Manufacturing is the only sector which furnishes information on their new order assessment.
IN VEN TORY L EV EL S
EMPL OY M EN T
SINGAPORE
Quarter 2 2015
Methodology
Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau conducts latest Business Expectations Surveys every quarter. Each quarter, 200
business owners and senior executives representing major industry sectors across Singapore are asked if they expect
increases, decreases or no changes in their upcoming quarterly Sales, Profits, Employment, New Orders, Inventories
and Selling Prices.
Note: The index figures used in the survey represent the net percentage of survey respondents expecting higher sales,
profits, etc., compared with the same quarter of the previous year. The indices are calculated by subtracting the
percentage of respondents expecting decreases from the percentage expecting increases.
Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau
Established in 2005, Singapore Commercial Credit Bureau (SCCB) operates a database of local
enterprises and their credit history to provide clients with the insight needed to build trust
and improve the quality of business relationships with their customers, suppliers and business
partners. SCCB operates under Dun & Bradstreet Singapore.
Analysis by
Dr Chan Siew Pang, Honorary Senior Lecturer, La Trobe University, Australia, a formal Faculty Member of the National
University of Singapore Business School and Director of Arete Analytics Pte Ltd.
For more information, please visit www.dnb.com.sg, or contact Eugene Zachariah Tan at +65 6439 6670, or email [email protected].
THAILAND
Quarter 2 2015
Expectations cool down
as headwinds lie ahead
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
Excitement seems to have worn off from Q1
as the overall business optimism index shows
some correction. The economy is expected to
expand further in Q2 but faces headwinds
from its key export markets.
5 out of the 6 optimism parameters declined
in Q2 2015. However this could be seen as
a normalization trend since there were sharp
spikes in the previous quarter for Volume
of Sales, Net Profits, Selling Prices and New
Orders.
Positive outlook is observed among the Services,
Wholesale, Retailing and Construction sectors.
The second quarter in Thailand has the most holidays. A
lot more people will be traveling throughout the country
this year, as the government implements several projects
to boost tourism. Among them is designating 2015 as the
“Year of the Thai Way of Life Experiences” to attract
the growing influx of foreign tourists, particularly for
the popular Songkran Festival. This should help shore
up overall consumption in Q2. Services and Retailing
sectors will be the main beneficiaries. The Construction
sector is also active with new developments in Metro
Bangkok and countryside, and an ambitious railway
project linking Thailand to its northern neighbours.
Meanwhile, government spending in the form of
accelerated budget disbursements should stimulate the
economy further.
But in the broader picture, Thai fortunes are dependent
on the global economy. For instance, a protracted
slowdown in its major trade partner China, which is
increasingly obvious, will adversely affect rice, fruits and
rubber exports. Although USA and ASEAN are showing
better prospects for exporters, the focus will still stay
on the economic directions of China, Japan and the EU,
which are their top destinations – but these markets may
be slowing down too.
Domestic risk factors will continue to weigh on
business confidence. Continued uncertainty over land
and building tax legislations, which brought about
widespread concerns among home and/or land buyers,
could dampen the construction sector, real estate
development businesses, and construction material
industry. Political problems could resurface following
the recent lifting of martial law, which is being objected
by various vested interest groups.
The Office of National Economic and Social Development
Board (NESDB) in Thailand reported that GDP grew by
0.7% in 2014 compared to 2.9% in 2013, and estimates
growth to bounce back to a healthy range of 3.5%-4.5%
for 2015. This will be underpinned by stronger levels of
investment, consumption and exports. Compared to Q1
2015, the Thai economy is projected to expand in Q2,
boosted mainly by domestic consumption and tourism,
as well as seasonal fruit exports which typically rises
in Q2. Growth rate for Q2 2015 will be better off by
about 2-3% year-on-year (y-o-y) than the same period
in 2014, when political problems had been prevalent.
THAILAND
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
The resultant optimism for Volume of Sales stands
at 6.0% in Q2, down 22.0 percentage points q-o-q
and increase 3.0 percentage points y-o-y. Services and
construction sectors hold the most optimism for this
parameter, similar to Net Profits.
The majority of respondents (43.0%) expect positive
improvement for volume of sales, while 37.0% expect
a decline. The remaining 19.0% do not foresee any
change in their sales volume for Q2 2015.
N E T PR O F I T
The resultant Optimism for Net Profits stands at
5.0% in Q2, down 22.0 percentage points q-o-q and
increase by 11.0 percentage points y-o-y. Services and
Construction Sectors are the most optimistic sectors
for this parameter.
There has been some adjustment to profit expectations
in Q2, after a marked rise in Q1. While a slim majority
(43.0%) expect their bottom lines to increase this
quarter, nearly 38.0% of respondents think it may
decrease. The remaining 18.0% of respondents are
unchanged.
The resultant Optimism for Selling Price stands at
2.0% percentage. Services, Wholesaling and Retailing
are the most optimistic sectors for this parameter.
The majority of respondents (50.0%) expect no
change in their selling prices throughout Q2. About
35.0% of respondents expect to raise prices while
only 14.0% respondents plan to reduce.
THAILAND
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
The resultant Optimism for New Orders stand at
3.0 percentage points y-o-y. Services, Wholesaling
and Retailing are the most optimistic sectors for this
parameter, similar to selling price.
About 38.0% of respondents expect their order
bookings to increase, while around 23.0% of all
respondents project a decline. The remaining 38.0%
expect orders to stay put.
The resultant Optimism for Inventory Level stands
at -6.0% in Q2, down 2 percentage point q-o-q but
increase 7.0% percentage point y-o-y. Mining is the
only optimistic sector for this parameter.
The majority of respondents (52.0%) are expecting no
change in their current inventory levels. Around 32.0%
of all respondents plan to decrease their inventory,
while only 26.0% respondents plan to increase.
EM P L OY M EN T
The resultant Optimism for Employment stands at
13.0% in Q2, up 4.0% percentage points for both
q-o-q and y-o-y. The Services and Construction Sectors
are the most optimistic sectors for this parameter.
The majority of respondents (60.0%) foresee no
change in the size of their workforce. About 26.0% of
the respondents expect to increase their payroll size,
while the remaining 13.0% will be reducing it.
THAILAND
Quarter 2 2015
Methodology
For more information, please visit www.dnb.co.th, or contact our Customer Service Center at +662 657 3999 ext. 4200, or email us [email protected].
VIETNAM
Quarter 2 2015
Businesses expect growth
to stay the course
Outlook for Q2 2015
- Key Highlights
Business confidence levels seem to be in line with
the performance of the economy, and will continue
the upward trend in Q2 2015. The overall index
improved slightly from 24% to 27%.
4 out of the 6 optimism parameters have risen
in Q2 2015, led by Employment with the
largest percentage increase. Volume of Sales
and Net Profit show the most optimism, while
declines are observed for Selling Price and
New Orders.
Services grew the most with an increase of 13
percentage points, while other sectors such as
Mining, Construction and Wholesale remain soft.
The latest Business Optimism Index (BOI) extends the
gains in the previous quarter with marginal improvement
of 3 percentage points, to 27% for Q2 2015. Close
to one third of respondents anticipate better business
conditions in the coming quarter (30%), although the
majority expect the same or no change (65%). Outlook
on Sales and Net Profit is hovering strong at 40%, the
highest among the optimism parameters. Employment
benefited from the post Tet Holiday recruitment season,
with a 10-percentage point jump.
Changes in BOI correspond with the broader movement
of the economy, where GDP grew 6.3% y-o-y in Q1.
The main engine driving the economy is Manufacturing,
which expanded 9.5% y-o-y in Q1 compared 7.3%
the same period last year. Agriculture-Forestry-Fishing
(2.1%) and Services (5.82%) reported slightly lower
growth rates last quarter compared to Q1 2014 (2.4%
and 5.95% respectively), with exception of the Trade
sub-sector which saw clear improvement from 5.6% to
7.1% this year.
When we look at the economic fundamentals, average
inflation is still manageably low at 0.74% y-o-y. After
two months of negative inflation, price levels finally
eased upwards by 0.15% m-o-m in March, mainly due
to the seasonal effects of Tet. More importantly, real
consumption in Q1 2015 has shown impressive recovery
with 9.1% growth y-o-y, compared to 5.1% in Q1 2014.
Strong domestic demand in a low-inflation environment,
with supportive monetary policies by the government,
will continue to bode well for business optimism.
Overall growth in total investment increased from
8.8% for Q1 last year to 9.1% this year. Foreign direct
investment (FDI) is a clear winner, with a sharp spike
from 8.2% to 10.7%. Total FDI volumes reached USD
3 billion in Q1 2015 or 7% y-o-y. The trade balance
is currently in deficit at USD 1.8 billion, with USD
35.7 billion y-t-d export revenue (6.9% y-o-y growth)
and USD 37.5 billion y-t-d import revenue (16.3%
y-o-y growth). Export momentum may continue with
better than expected recovery in the US, the biggest
export market for Vietnam. Thanks to stable FDI and
remittance inflows, the balance of payments is estimated
to be in surplus of USD 2.8 billion.
VIETNAM
Quarter 2 2015
VOLUM E OF SAL ES
Marginal improvement from 36% last quarter to
40% this quarter, but a few steps back from Q4 level
of 67%.
Service sector soared from 26% last quarter to
49% this quarter (+23 percentage points), followed
by Manufacturing (+9). Mining and Construction
sectors each dropped by 10 percentage points.
N E T PR O F I T
Changes in Net Profit correspond closely with Volume
of Sales. Growth is slight from 36% last quarter to
41% this quarter.
Service sector grew the most from 26% to 55% this
quarter, an almost twofold gain (+29 percentage
points). Conversely, Mining dropped the most (-9) to
merely 19% this quarter, followed by Construction
and Finance-Insurance-Real Estate (-5 each).
Selling Price is one of the two parameters that
registered a decline in optimism, from 12% to 7%.
Most respondents (84%) expect their selling prices to
remain unchanged throughout Q2.
Mining and Construction sectors dropped considerably
by 11-13 percentage points. It is interesting to note
that Transportation-Communication-Utilities
is
the only sector to show higher optimism, probably
due to the increase of electricity tariffs that will be
effective soon.
VIETNAM
Quarter 2 2015
N EW ORD ERS
Besides Selling Price, New Orders is the other
parameter that retreated slightly from 36% last
quarter to 34% this quarter. Still, more than a third
of all respondents expect their orders to increase,
while only 4% see a decline in bookings.
There are sharp variations within the sectors.
Manufacturing is the most optimistic (+12
percentage points) followed by Services (+8).
However, Wholesale experienced a sizeable drop
(-19) along with Mining (-11).
Growth is observed from 16% last quarter to 20% this
quarter. Nonetheless the majority of respondents (65%)
do not expect changes to their existing inventory.
Mining and Manufacturing sectors face the largest
growth of about 5 percentage points. The latter has
the highest ratio of respondents (31%) planning
to the increase their stock levels in Q2, possibly in
tandem with the rise of new orders anticipated for
Manufacturing (in earlier chart).
EM P L OY M EN T
Given the perceived weakness in Selling Price and
New Orders, it might seem curious at first glance to
see Employment rise from 5% last quarter to 15% this
quarter. Payroll size may have seasonally increased on
the wave of the Tet festivities. Growing expectations
for Sales and Net Profit could also have made hiring
decisions easier.
From the survey results, all sectors show increase in this
parameter except Mining (-5 percentage points), with the
largest for Manufacturing (+15). This is not surprising,
given its strong showing in the other parameters.
VIETNAM
Quarter 2 2015
Methodology
Analysis and Commentary by
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Nguyen Minh Ha, Dean of Post Graduate School, HCMC Open University, Vietnam.
For more information, please visit www.dnbvietnam.com, or email us at [email protected].

ASEAN Business Optimism Index

Transcription

Similar documents

EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE:

CIVIL SERVICES OFFICERS` INSTITUTE

Mathew Hall, Peter Hegedüs, Josip Maras, Marco Mori, Zoltán

Click to

Untitled - Korn Ferry

ASEAN Business Optimism Index

The Lighthouse Issue 5

Agritopia - Floor Associates