November Meeting - American Meteorological Society

Newsletter
of the
TWIN CITIES CHAPTER
of the
AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY
November 2009 Vol. 31 No. 3
Editor: Kevin L. Huyck
The November meeting of the Twin Cities Chapter is at 7 PM, Tuesday, November 17, 2009
at the University of St. Thomas. Given the special guest speaker we won't be conducting
any business before the presentation. For more details, see the back page for specific directions to the meeting location including a map and an interactive Google link. AMS Members, interested acquaintances and members of the public are welcome to attend.
November Meeting: Dr. Joe Schaefer,
Outlook and Watch Probabilities
more, but it won't change our mission to be the weather
community in the Twin Cities.
As you'll read about later in the newsletter, we've got a great
"catch" for the November meeting: Dr. Joe Schaefer, Director of
the Storm Prediction Center. This is a big deal for us, and we
should make it worth his while. Be sure to tell all your friends.
We have a color flyer which we strongly encourage you to print
and post about your workplace. Please feel free to send a link to
our website or the flyer to any weather friends of yours who
might be interested in this unique opportunity, and, for members,
there might be a little more.
Remember, for this Chapter to grow and thrive, we need the
help of our members.
-Cb
As part of all severe weather outlooks and watches issued by
the Storm Prediction Center a set of probabilities outlining
specific risks is included. The development of these Hazardous
Weather Probabilities will be covered in this presentation along
with the forecasting methodology used to produce them. Dr. Joe
Schaefer is a graduate of St. Louis University and started his
career in meteorology in 1963 at the Evansville, IN WFO. Since
then, he has held positions at the St. Louis and Wichita WFOs ,
along with the Navy and NSSL , before being named Director of
the Storm Prediction Center in 1995. Dr. Schaefer is active in the
American Meteorological Society and National Weather
Association and is a past president of the NWA. At the end of
2009, Dr. Schaefer will be retiring after over four decades in the
field.
President’s Corner: Chris Bovitz
[email protected]
If you missed it, we had a great meeting
at Telvent/DTN. If you've ever wondered
how the weather forecasts work at a
professional golf tournament are done,
well, I guess you can read about it later in
the newsletter. But it was good to hear it
in person.
Thanks for your patience on our getting
some administrative stuff out of the way. It's something I've
wanted to do for a while, and as we continue on our journey to an
organization which is ready for the future. There will be a little
Member Tidbits
This summer, members Chris and Lori Bovitz each earned
their respective black belts in ATA Tae Kwon Do. They continue
to work toward their second-degree black belts as instructors-intraining.
If you have news in your personal or professional life you
would like to announce to the chapter, please send a summary to
[email protected].
News and Notes
Call for Bloggers
Member Nicolle Morock is starting her own company,
http://whatever-weather.com/. The company goal is to become
the one-stop shop for meteorologists, their employers, and weather geeks in general. In addition to hosting free job postings, the
site will offer a retail store, chat rooms, and blogs. Nicolle is currently looking for bloggers to share their knowledge with her
readers. If you are a meteorologist and have a specialty or information that you would like to share in a blog format, please
contact her at [email protected]. Some examples of blog
topics include: new technology coming online, a hiring manager
writing about qualities for which he/she looks in a candidate for
employment, or tricks for quantitative precipitation forecasting in
a particular scenario. Also, please contact her if you are a hiring
manager and would like to post jobs on the site.
--News and Notes continued on Page 2
More News and Notes
Baby News!
The
Twin
Cities
Chapter would like to
extend a very warm
welcome to our newest
future
Member,
Maxwell
Stephen
Schmit. Maxwell was
born on September 18th
weighing 8 lbs and 10
oz and 20 inches long.
He joins his big sister,
Sidney, mom, Lisa and
dad, Rick. Both mom
and baby are doing well.
Newsletter contributors welcome:
weather, and immediately began to worry about the weather for
Operation Torch. It was decided that in the hours leading up to
the invasion, forecasts from Washington, London, and Gibraltar
would be used to predict the conditions at the time of the assault.
Ideally, the Allies wanted three days of good weather and light
seas. Unfortunately, an area of low pressure to the southeast of
Greenland was causing heavy seas around Morocco on
November 6. It was decided that the invasion would proceed as
planned. When the invasion began around 5 am on the morning
of November 8, the Allies were faced with passing rain squalls
and a heavy surf that destroyed 21 of the first 31 boats to
approach the shore. Subsequent landing groups in the predawn
hours didn’t fare much better (64% of the landing boats involved
in the assault on November 8 were lost). However, as the day
progressed, the weather gradually improved due to a second low
pressure system that crossed over the Straits of Gibraltar.
Meteorologists had correctly predicted that this second low
would offset the effects of the low near Greenland. If not for this
forecast, the invasion would have been delayed.
We are seeking several members who are interested in
contributing material for the newsletter. There are many
different opportunities available for those who wish to
participate. We have ample room for monthly or bi-monthly
columnists. If you want to help but don’t think you have enough
material for either of those two options we welcome single
articles and one-time contributions. If you are interested in
helping out please contact Kevin by email at
[email protected].
Looking for an Assistant Editor:
We are also looking for an individual to help in compiling the
newsletter and assisting in its production. The responsibilities of
this person include but are not limited to; proofreading, content
production, and research. Members interested in becoming an
assistant editor should contact Kevin by email at
[email protected] for more details.
A Look at Weather History: Operation
Torch, 8-10 November, 1942
Anthony Stender
[email protected]
When it comes to the history of World War II, Americans are
quite familiar with D-Day and the invasion of Europe. Nineteen
months earlier, the Allies staged a similar three-pronged invasion
of northern Africa. The main goals of the invasion were to
secure airfields and ports in Casablanca, Morocco, Oran and
Algiers, Algeria. The weather played a critical role in the days
surrounding that lesser known amphibious assault codenamed
Operation Torch.
The United States had not engaged in an amphibious assault
since the Spanish-American war in 1898, a span of 45 years.
Preparations for the invasion of North Africa began in late July,
1942 when the U.S. agreed to participate in the Allied attack. In
early September the Allies selected November 8 as the date to
begin the invasion. This date was chosen, because a low tide
was expected for that day. Most days, Northern Africa
experienced sea swells that would hinder an invasion attempt in
the fall. A newly minted and heretofore untried Lieutenant
General Dwight D. Eisenhower would command the ground
forces. He was not so confident that the fall would bring good
The improved weather on November 8 only lasted for a few
hours. Heavy seas then returned and remained until November
12. Fortunately, the Allies faced little resistance from the Vichy
French forces during this invasion. The Eastern Task Force
under Lieutenant-General Kenneth Anderson was the first to
welcome success capturing Algiers around noon on the 8th. Oran
fell to Major-General Lloyd Fredendall's Center Task Force on
November 9 and Major General George S. Patton's Western Task
Force entered Casablanca virtually unopposed on November
10th. In retrospect, an earlier invasion was utterly impossible,
because the seas were simply too heavy until November 8. On
the other hand, if the Allies had delayed the assault until
November 12, it is likely that the element of surprise would have
been lost. Axis spies were aware of ships leaving England during
the closing days of October. Moreover, if the invasion had been
delayed, the fair weather after November 12 would have allowed
the Axis to move in reinforcements and air support.
Sources:
Howe, George F. United States Army in World War II,
Mediterranean Theater of Operations, Northwest Africa: seizing
the initiative in the west. Dept of the Army, 1957, 748 p.
Fuller, John F. Thor’s Legions: Weather Support to the U.S. Air
Force and Army, 1937-1987. AMS Historical Monograph Series,
1990, p.67-71.
Meeting Minutes: October 20, 2009
President Chris Bovitz called the October 2009 meeting of the
Chapter to order at 7:02pm on October 20, 2009. Vice-president
Matt Friedlein, Secretary-Treasurer Bryan Howell and Newsletter Editor Kevin Huyck were in attendance along with 13
members and guests. The meeting convened at Telvent DTN in
Burnsville, MN.
The meeting opened with the customary introductions and was
to be followed by a reading of the September meeting minutes,
but a copy was
unable to be located.
The
reading of the
September minutes was then
tabled until the
November
meeting.
Secretary-Treasurer
Bryan
Howell
then
– Several members listening to Brian
went over the
finance reports from the summer months and the month of September. Kevin Huyck moved to accept the reports with a second
from Jim Marusak. The motion passed.
President Chris Bovitz then brought up the next order of business which was a set of Bylaws for the Chapter. The proposed
Bylaws were read and Kevin Huyck made a motion to accept the
new Bylaws. Jim Marusak seconded the motion and the ensuing
vote passed. Once the Bylaws were in place, a set of proposed
Constitutional amendments were presented by President Bovitz.
Bryan Howell moved to accept the new amendments with a
second by Kevin Huyck and approval from the membership.
The position of Science Fair Coordinator has been filled with
member Tony Sudano volunteering to take over the position.
There was one event of interest to Chapter members over the past
month. The annual Kuenast Lecture was held at the St. Paul
Campus of the University of Minnesota. No one in attendance at
the meeting attended the lecture, but a report at a future meeting
is anticipated. Information on a few upcoming events was then
shared. On October 31st, members Doug Dokken and Kurt
Scholz will be attending the Science Matters convention and will
be
promoting
the
Chapter.
The
Northern
Plains
Winter
Storm Conference is November 9-10 in St.
Cloud.
Our
Chapter is a
sponsor of the
event. Finally,
the November
meeting will be – Brian talking about the role of the Sports & Recreation
Team
November 17th
in the 3M Auditorium at St. Thomas University in St. Paul. Dr.
Joe Schaefer, Director of the Storm Prediction Center will be the
speaker. Members are invited to have dinner with Dr. Schaefer
prior to the meeting.
As the last item of business, Bryan Howell presented what he
had found out in regard to the Chapter becoming an NWA
Chapter as well. More on this will follow at a future meeting.
With business completed, Kevin Huyck moved for adjournment
with a second by Melissa Stambaugh. The motion passed and
the business meeting was adjourned at 7:32 pm.
The evening featured two presentations from staff members of
Telvent DTN. The first was from Wes Hyduke, Director of
Meteorological Operations (MetOps) at Telvent DTN. Wes
briefly went over the four industries that Telvent DTN focuses on
for weather operations, which are transportation, energy, aviation
and turf/sports. He also went over a few of Telvent DTN’s wellknown clients. This was followed by a brief overview of
WeatherSentry Online, which is the company’s primary way of
getting weather information to its clients. Wes then handed
things over to Brian Kragh for the second presentation. Kragh
has been with Telvent DTN since February 2005 and prior to that
spent 8 years in the Marines, which is where he received his
meteorology education. At Telvent DTN, Kragh is a part of the
Sports/Recreation Team and Energy team. One of the primary
responsibilities of the Sports/Rec Team is to provide on-site
support for PGA Tour events, which was the focus of Kragh’s
presentation.
Telvent DTN provides on-site support for the PGA Tour, the
Nationwide Tour, the Champions Tour and the LPGA tour. Over
the course of a typical year, this can amount to 46 PGA Tour
events, 31 Nationwide events, 28 Champions events, three or
four PGA of America events (e.g. PGA Championship, Ryder
Cup), 23 LPGA events and 25 PGA Qualifying School events,
which makes for a pretty busy year. Telvent DTN has seven
employees on
staff to cover
these events.
The first onsite
meteorologists started
working events
after the 1991
U.S. Open at
Hazeltine
National Golf
Club in Chaska, – Portable electric field mill graphics
MN.
During
that event on June 13th, 1991, lightning struck near the 11th tee
during a thunderstorm. Five spectators were injured and one
died from a total of 15 that had been struck. Since then, the onsite meteorologists have been on hand to help get the warning out
to clear the course when inclement weather approaches.
A typical work week for an on-site meteorologist starts on
Monday, when the meteorologist travels to the site and sets up
their equipment. Tuesday is a practice day for the golfers on the
tour and a staff meeting is also held, in which the meteorologist
participates. Wednesday consists of Pro-Am events in which
people pay to play rounds of golf with the tour players. The
actual tournament then takes place Thursday through Sunday.
Days are long on the tour with the day starting at 5am and
sometimes running to 9-10pm during the summer when days are
long. On good weather days, the on-site meteorologist can walk
the grounds of the course and watch the tournament. On
inclement weather days, the entire day can be spent inside a
trailer monitoring the weather. The primary lightning detection
equipment is an electric field mill, which can measure charge
--October Minutes continued
over 20 miles away. The other equipment used is one or two
laptop computers connected to the Internet and a printer.
Some of the perks of the job include breakfast and lunch in the
clubhouse with the tour golfers, cars to drive for the week
provided by sponsors and tickets to other local sporting events
during the evenings. Some of the locations of the tournaments
can be considered perks
as well, with
events
in
Hawai’i during
the cold season
in Minnesota.
To wrap up the
presentation,
Brian provided
a few facts
about the 2009
– Wes answering questions in the MetOps area
PGA Season.
The tour lasted about 27 weeks and included 123 events worked
by Telvent DTN meteorologists. The meteorologists also spent
over 900 nights in hotels and racked up over 175,000 airline
miles. Following Brian’s presentation, the attendees were taken
on a tour of the new MetOps facility. Upon completion of the
tour, the meeting was adjourned at 8:56pm.
--Bryan J. Howell
Secretary/Treasurer
[email protected]
November
Midwest
Blizzards
in
the
Upper
Guest feature by Chuck Schoeneberger
We are all wondering just what November will bring after a
cool start to the fall. With our early snowfalls we wonder if the
weather will be cold and snowy with early season blizzards
across the region.
The current local standards for a Blizzard Warning according to
the Chanhassen National Weather Service Office are winds above
35mph, considerable falling and blowing snow, and visibilities
below a quarter mile for three hours or more.
A study published in the Journal of Climate by Robert M.
Schwartz (2002) studied the geographic locations of blizzards
from 1959-2000, using the National Weather Service’s (NWS)
Storm Data dataset. The dataset records a blizzard only when a
local WFO considers it a blizzard. The study also found that
current standards are declaring smaller and smaller and areas
blizzards as technology has improved and the NWS reorganized.
Also standards varied between WFO and detail given to the area.
Some of the older entries listed just regions like “northeast
Iowa”, while some of the recent entries listed each county
affected. There were many events that were considered “near
blizzard” which were not included only because the WFO
Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) did not personally
determine the conditions met the official requirements. While
the peak is in January for the region, there were 4-6 blizzards
recorded in Minnesota during November during the study time
period.
There is also a weak correlation that there are fewer blizzards
in El Nino winters than La Nina winters. The current winter
outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is showing that we
are moving into an El Nino pattern this winter. An El Nino
pattern is the warm phase of the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
(ENSO) created by warming waters in central equatorial Pacific.
It is officially declared when waters warm to +0.5C above the 3
month average. Currently the waters in that region are +1.0C
above average. Historically this has meant warmer winters with
less snow for Minnesota.
The warmer water in the central equatorial Pacific shifts from
Southeast Asia to the central Pacific. This suppresses the Polar
Jet Stream and shifts it further north and strengthens the southern
Jet Stream and moves the main winter storm track across the
southern states. The Aleutian Low becomes the dominant feature
than the Hudson Bay low, allowing for more zonal flow bringing
in modified Pacific air instead of cold arctic air from northern
Canada and keeping the state warmer than average. There will
still be cold and snowy days during the winter but just not that
many of them.
So far through November, we are in a warmer pattern that
longer range models are showing will hold until at least just
before Thanksgiving. This is consistent with an El Nino pattern
with zonal flow and an intense Aleutian Low and a weakened
Hudson Low.
Sources:
Watch, Warning, Advisory Definitions for NWS Twin
Cities/Chanhassen http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mpx/?n=wwadef
Climatology of Blizzards in Conterminous United States, 19592000; Robert M. Schwartz, Journal of Climate, June 2002
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?doi=10.1175%2F15200442%282002%29015%3C1765%3ACOBITC%3E2.0.CO
%3B2&request=get-abstract
El Nino and the Upcoming Winter Outlook
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?
wfo=mpx&storyid=34275&source=2
Editors Notes
We're half-way through
November and as I write this
we're wrapping up Winter
Weather Preparedness week
in
Minnesota
and
Wisconsin. I won't recap the
entire list of reminders but if
you'll direct your web
browser
to
http://www.weather.gov/om/winter/index.shtml you'll find all the
information you'll need to keep yourself save during the winter
months.
Several officers and members of the Chapter attended the
Northern Plains Winter Storm Conference at Saint Cloud State
University earlier this week. It was a very nice conference as per
previous years. The folks up there always put on a nice
presentation. One of the discussions during the conference
pointed out that the recent strong mid-latitude cyclones in the the
northern half of the country and eastern Canada have really “used
up” a lot of the cold air that is usually pooling in those regions at
this time of year. This suggests we'll continue to see at or above
average temperatures for the rest of the month and into
--Even more Editors Notes
December at least, and possibly much longer than that. Earlier in
this newsletter our newest contributor, Chuck Schoeneberger, has
a nice story about the potential for blizzards in the Upper
Midwest during November. Sadly, with the month half over it
looks like we won't be seeing any strong winter storms for the
rest of the month. Perhaps December will hold more promise. I
know one of my co-workers is lamenting the fact his skis aren't
dusted off and waxed up yet since there's no need with the bare
ground. I'm confident we'll get plenty of snow by the end of the
summer, however.
We're still looking for more Feature contributors for the
newsletter. There is a lot of exciting stuff happening and lots of
diverse interests in our membership. If you want to help out by
contributing an article page up to the announcement on Page 2.
We're also seeking photo submissions, like the one on the right.
Feel free to submit any weather photo you like, it can be a winter
scene or any season. I know we've have some shutterbugs in our
midst, this is an opportunity to share your abilities and artistic
talents with the rest of the Chapter, if you like.
There was a very minor change for this issue of the newsletter.
I've decided to rename the “Movin' on, Movin' up, Movin' out”
section to “Member Tidbits”. I think this is a bit more
appropriate since not all member news is about moving
anywhere. If you disagree, let me know!
We're close to finalizing the details for Dr. Schaefer's dinner
before our November meeting. The dinner is open to Chapter
members only. Watch your email boxes for more details over the
weekend. For December we have our annual television station
visit. Just a quick glance at the calendar suggests we'll be at
WCCO this year with Chris Schaffer, no relation to Joe that I'm
aware of. You can keep up on all the latest details on Chapter
happenings
by
visiting
the
calendar
at
http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/twincities/calendar.html.
For those of you who are National AMS members, did you
know that BAMS is now available online (and much sooner than
the
hardcopies
in
the
mail)?
Just
go
to
http://www.ametsoc.org/digitalbams/ and login to view it. Lots
"Snowy Leaves" from early October snows. © Pamela Huyck
of good information in there this month including some details
about a recent survey about Television weathercaster thoughts
and feelings about Global Warming and a feature story about
using Numerical Weather Prediction models to issue longer lead
time convective warnings. Always plenty of good information in
BAMS even when we're not featured.
In another month or two we'll be heading into Science Fair
season and we have a new Science Fair coordinator/chairperson.
Please welcome Tony Sudano to that post and say “hi”. We're
always looking for enthusiastic volunteers to help out with
science fair judging. Speaking from personal experience, the
students really enjoy being able to talk to professionals and folks
interested in weather. It's a great opportunity to interact and
encourage the next generation of scientists. You too can get
involved,
just
drop
Tony
and
email
at
[email protected].
We always welcome feedback from the members about the
newsletter itself (especially the newsletter) and anything else on
your mind.
Feel free to drop us a note at
[email protected] whenever you like. As the folks at
Motel 6 say, we'll leave the email on for you.
-Kevin
The November meeting of the Twin Cities Chapter is at 7 PM, Tuesday, November 17, 2009 at
the 3M auditorium in the Owens Science Hall, University of St. Thomas in St. Paul. Parking is
located in the Anderson Ramp, just south of the Owens Science Hall and costs $2. You can
find a campus map at http://www.ametsoc.org/chapters/twincities/schaefer_parking.pdf.
The Owens Science Hall is marked as #39 and the Anderson Ramp is #35. For directions from
you location and a map of the site, please visit the Google link below.
http://maps.google.com/maps?q=39+South+Cretin+Avenue+55105(Anderson Ramp)