FOR OUR PURPOSES WE ARE ONLY

Baseball, like hockey, is a Money Line sport.
What that means is there is no point spread
involved like you have in basketball and football.
There is a ‘spread’ if you bet games on the
Run Line, but for our purposes we will only
be betting Money Line bets. This might be
a bit confusing for some, so let me give an
example.
You might see a game with a line like this:
Team
New York Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Money Line
-115
+105
In this example, the Yankees are favored. On
the Money Line they are -115; this means you
have to wager $115 to win $100. If you bet
a game on the Money Line, the team only has
to win the game. It doesn’t matter by how
much they win by, 1 run or 10 runs, it doesn’t
matter – your bet still wins.
On the flip side, the Red Sox are +105. This
means you would bet $100 to win $105 on
Boston. And again, they only have to win the
game by a run.
If we were going to use the Run Line, that’s
where a point spread comes into play. You
see the Yankees are -1.5 runs, so they would
have to win by 2 runs or more to win a bet
on New York. Conversely, the Red Sox are
getting 1.5 runs so if they lost by 1 run a bet
on Boston would still be a winner. The total
means the total runs that will be scored in
the game.
FOR OUR PURPOSES WE ARE ONLY
BETTING THE MONEY LINE SO THERE
IS NO SPREAD INVOLVED. IF YOUR
TEAM WINS, THEY WIN THE BET.
***For the MLB System we have a radical
departure from our normal betting strategies.
First, we are less concerned with Winning %,
and more concerned with Units Won. That’s
Run Line
Total
-1.5 +160
+1.5 -180
9.5 -110
9.5 -110
for a couple of reasons. There is no point
spread involved. And we do wager frequently
on Underdogs, so you can have a lower
winning % (in fact you can have a below 50%
winning %) and still do quite well betting on
baseball. The term ‘Units
Won’ is explained this way: if you are betting
$100 a game, and you are +10 units, then
you would be up $1,000. At Sports Betting
Professor, I recommend using between 25% of your starting bankroll for each wager.
Fluctuations in your standard bet will most
likely cause more damage during the lows
than it will help during the highs.
Many bettors like to stay away from money
line-based sports (such as baseball and
hockey) due to the extremes in winning
percentages, but they can be very
profitable. Betting on the underdog in
money line sports may give you a lower won
loss record, but the payouts for winners
will be so much higher that your profits will
increase. For example, let’s assume you
are a $100 bettor. Say you make 100 bets
on underdogs of +145 (this means you are
wagering $100 to win $145). If you lose 59
of those bets, that means a loss of $5,900
(59 x $100). If you win 41 bets, you would
make a profit of $5,945 (41 x $145).
Take a look at that again. In the above
example you can win only 41% of your games
and still make a profit! Is it a huge profit?
No it’s not, but it’s a profit nonetheless – and
41% is a ridiculously low percentage to still
be able to make money at. In the traditional
point spread sports, the percentage you need
to make money is 52.7%.
The second big difference with the MLB
system compared to my other systems is
that you will not be doubling up your bets, ala
the Bet A, Bet B, Bet C formula. You can get
some astronomical bet amounts if you were
to carry over in this manner with Money Line
bets.
Baseball is a different animal, and at the end
of the day the point is to make $. So with the
Money Line factor, we’re just looking to turn a
profit and we’re not worried so much with win
% due to the fact we’ll be frequently betting
on Underdogs.
We have been tracking these statistics for
the last 15 years in Major League Baseball.
In the course of our research, we have
determined that public opinion plays a large
part in the success of our baseball system.
People LOVE to bet the chalk (or favorites) in
MLB. While betting on favorites might give
you a higher winning percentage you might
not win money - which is the whole point
of this exercise! Betting on teams like the
Yankees will consistently put your odds in the
-200s or higher. If you average odds of -200,
you would need that team to win 67% of the
time to break even. If your average odds go
any higher, you’ll need to win 70% or more to
not lose money!
For example, if you wager on the Yankees
every game of the season (162 games) and
they average -200 odds for the season, you
would need them to win 109 games just to
break even. To turn any substantial profit you
would need them to break the single-season
win record (116). What are the chances of
that happening?
Something else we also discovered was
that in general, home teams are severely
undervalued by the public. The system relies
on whether or not a team is Home or Away,
and what the Betting Percentages are.
Here is the MLB System in a nutshell:
Betting %
50%
40%
30%
20%
15%
Home
+103 units
+91 units
+64 units
+20 units
+28 units
This is how you read the chart. In the
above example, betting the Home Team that
receives less than 30% of the public betting
action (this means the Visiting Team has more
than 70% of the public action) results in +64
units for the bettor. This means a $100
bettor would be up $6,400!
For another example: Betting on the
Home Team that receives less than
50% of the public betting action
(this means the Visiting Team has
Visitor
-54 units
-30 units
+13 units
-4 units
-5 units
Total
+49 units
+61 units
+77 units
+16 units
+23 units
more than 50% of the public action) results
in +103 units for the bettor. This means a
$100 bettor would be up $10,300!
The only situation where we want to bet on
the Visiting Team is when they are receiving
less than 30% of the betting action. That
level produces +13 units.
Now I am able to access this
information through my contacts
in the offshore sports betting
industry, which I was a part of for over
8 years. But instead of trying to rely on
contacts you don’t have, that’s OK – you
don’t have to.
If you would like to access this percentage
information yourself, there’s only one website
in the world that I know of that has it:
Sports Insights
Not only do they have betting percentages
on every game, they also have the quickest
line updates in the world. They’re faster than
Don Best, faster than G & J, and they’re
much, much cheaper. This site is a must for
every serious gambler, so even if you get my
picks I’d suggest taking a look.
Click here to take a look at Sports Insights
As I mentioned above, Home Teams are truly
undervalued by the betting public in MLB.
Remember, to be a successful bettor takes
discipline and patience. There will be days
when no games fit the parameters of the
system. That’s OK; we’re not ‘chasers.’
Only this discipline can guarantee profit at
the end of the season.
All the best,
Rich Allen
Rich Allen