January - What Really Wins Money

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January 2009
What Really Wins Money
An Independent review of tipsters and betting systems
Hi,
H
appy New Year to one and all. It’s back to
business after being uncled out this December.
To paraphrase Ronnie Corbet... “and in a packed
newsletter this month” we’ve got an article on
making money from prices which are as small as
Ronnie Corbet.
That’s not all, the Patriarch has dug out an £8K
formula for handicap success and his Xmas spirit
hasn’t wavered – he’s giving it away for free!
My compounding continues, and there’s a
warning on a New Year scam you MUST steer clear
of. All this and much, much more. It’s goodbye from
me, and it’s goodbye from, erm, me!
IN THIS ISSUE:
Scam Alert!: Beware! The Return of a
Scam Which Has Already Cleaned Out
Some Readers .................................................. 4
Compounding Update: COMPOUNDING –
See How the Betting Bank Grows (and Have
One Eye on the Long Term)........................... 7
System Review: The Sharp End System –
A Potential “Bet And Go” System?................. 8
System Review: Another Lay Reference
Guide of Sorts But Offering Extremely
Good Value for Money .................................. 10
System Review: An Interesting Staking
Plan But Are the Selections Up to Scratch?.. 11
System Review: Why There’s Cash to be
Made From Price-Chasms! ........................... 12
System Review: Fancy Backing 1/3 Shots at
Odds of Up to 6/1? ........................................14
xx: Why Level Stakes Betting and Short
Prices Are a Viable Proposition..................... 15
Systems and Tipsters Update......................... 20
The Patriarch Presents
Rediscovered... the £8,500
Formula – Plus a Brand
New Football Trading
System for FREE!
F
or the start of the New Year I thought we should
have something a bit special. Talking of which,
may I take this opportunity to wish you a very good
and happy 2009!
The something special I have in mind is a backing
system that cost, wait for it, £8,500 close on 20 years
ago. I reckon you could have bought a top of the
range Mercedes for that figure in those days.
I didn’t pay that sum for it, but I knew a man that
did. Was it worth it? Well, later on you can judge that
for yourselves. The man behind it was no fly-bynight scamster, but a highly respected, high profile
figure in the racing world at that time. I can recall
using the idea successfully for a time, but what I
couldn’t understand is why it then disappeared
completely off my radar, and only surfaced recently
from the depths of some dusty files.
The only reason I can think of is that perhaps it
didn’t produce enough selections to sustain interest
(even though it certainly selects winners and usually
at good prices) for reasons that will become apparent
when you see the logic behind it. One winner that
sticks in my mind is Earth Summit, the winner of the
Scottish Grand National in 1994 at the tasty price of
16-1. It is purely a National Hunt system, and even
more selectively, concentrates solely on chases.
Later on I’ll mention an idea that was put forward to
extend the idea to produce further bets.
Without further ado, here goes with the plan.
The central idea can be summarised in a single
sentence, but that will have to be amplified in various
ways. Incidentally, the system was referred to as a
formula, and I’ll now quote directly from the Formula.
please turn over
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I have clicked on the Towcester link under
“Today’s meetings” which gives me a list of all of
the races at Towcester in time order. We now simply
focus on those races which have “Handicap Chase”
in their title. In the above example, the 210 and 240
races are the races we will be interested in.
How to identify Formula horses
These can best be described as horses making their
British chasing debuts in Open Handicaps. i.e. a horse
that is bypassing novice chases and instead is being
thrown straight into a Handicap Chase. That is the
sentence to keep in mind, but then apply these rules.
The next step is to click on the “Card” link next
to the race.
1. These horses must have run over hurdles in
Britain at some stage.
The race card
2. They must be favourably handicapped on their
British hurdle form. i.e. they must be running off a
handicap mark that is lower then their hurdles’ mark.
3. No horse that has run in “selling” grade over
hurdles during the same season that it makes its
chasing debut shall qualify under the Formula rules.
4. No horse that is returning to the track from an
absence of more than 630 days shall qualify under
the Formula rules.
5. Ex Point to Pointers do not qualify under the
Formula rules, unless they have run over hurdles
in Britain during the same season that they make
their Rules chasing debut.
In order to look at the past form of each horse, we
simply click on that horse’s name within this race
card. Here we can see all of the horse’s past form.
Editor’s note
I have clicked on Thievery.
Let’s take a look at each of the above five rules
with the new Racing Post website in mind (by the
way there is a free guide to the new Racing Post site
which you may find useful – http://www.falsefavourites.co.uk/RP.COMoptin/RP1.html)
Rule 1
This dictates that the horse must have run over
hurdles at some stage.
How do we know a race is a
Handicap Chase?
When you arrive at the Racing Post site
(www.racingpost.com) the first thing to do is to click
on “Cards and Results”. On the right side of the
page you will find the “Race Schedule”.
We are only interested in JUMPS races – so any
all weather (signified by an A.W.) and flat races can
be dismissed.
The form list
A quick short cut here is to look at the top of the
form card – here we will see “Lifetime Hurdle” – so
it follows that the horse must have run over hurdles
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if there is an entry here!
Rule 4
Alternatively, within the form list of previous
races, the race type we look for will include the
abbreviation “H” such as NvH, which stands for
Novice Hurdle as opposed to HcCh, which stands
for Handicap Chase.
No horse that is returning to the track from an
absence of more than 630 days shall qualify under
the Formula rules.
The information here can be found in the RACE
CARD.
Rule 2
Using the race card featured earlier, we can find
the number of days since the horse last ran next to
its name. So take a look at Thievery. Next to the
horse’s name on the race card is the number 23 –
this 23 means that the horse last ran 23 days ago.
This refers to the horse’s “mark” which, if we
refer to the form card above, can be found under the
column “OR” (which stands for official rating).
“They must be favourably handicapped on their
British hurdle form. i.e. they must be running off a
handicap mark that is lower than their hurdles’ mark.”
Rule 5
Ex Point to Pointers do not qualify under the
Formula rules unless they have run over hurdles in
Britain during the same season that they make their
Rules chasing debut.
The hurdle’s mark, then, can be found in the
horse’s LAST HURDLE RACE. We have to refer
again to the Form list and look for the last HURDLE
race ran by the horse, which was 5 November 2006.
The horse’s “mark” is found under the OR column
corresponding to that race – 85 is the mark.
Point to Point form is usually signified in BOLD
type in the Form column found in the RACE CARD.
If there is no bold type, then we have to click on the
horse’s name again to bring up the form list and look
through there where POINT to POINT races will be
clearly shown.
Now in order to find the horse’s Handicap Chase
mark we simply return to the race card where we can
find the mark (or official rating (OR)) under the
column OR. Thievery’s OR in the race card is what?
Yes it is 91 which is NOT below 85 is it! So Thievery
would not qualify as a bet here using the formula.
BUT let us continue with the rules and accompanying
Racing Post examples using the same race and horse.
These then are all the rules. There is, however, a
little work to be done to find these debut handicap
chasers. An absence of an RPR (found in the race card
as one of the columns accompanying the OR) is a first
indication that the horse may be a possibility. You then
have to look back over its complete form to find out
more about it. Also, look at the Spotlight comments in
the Racing Post where it might highlight qualifiers by
saying things like – “Now tackles fences for the first
time”. Or “should make a chaser and makes debut over
fences”. But even if there is no comment to suggest
that it is making its debut over fences, you must check
back over its complete form to be sure.
Rule 3
No horse that has run in “selling” grade over
hurdles during the same season that it makes its
chasing debut shall qualify under the Formula rules.
Again, we refer to the FORM LIST and look to
see if a horse has run in a seller. This will be
abbreviated as slr or equivalent (where previously
NvH signified Novice Hurdle etc).
Of course it’s easy to see the logic of the Formula.
A trainer must think very highly of his charge if he
bypasses Novice Chases and Novice Handicap Chases
to go straight for an Open Handicap Chase. He must
think that his horse is so good that it doesn’t need the
experience of taking part in Novice Chases. That is
what Twiston-Davies did in 1994 with Earth Summit, if
my memory serves me right. He went straight for the
Scottish Grand National – and won it. I have records of
other winners from the past at odds of 14-1, 12-1, 8-1,
7-1, etc. But as I have just very recently resurrected the
system I have no current results to offer.
Here is an example of a selling race as it shows
up on the form list:
The race shown on the 3rd September 2008 for
Log on Intersky shows the horse ran in a C5SlHcCh
– or to translate – a Class 5 Selling Handicap Chase
where Sl signifies it is a seller. This is what we must
look out for in Rule 3 (note the rule states selling
hurdle – I have merely included this example to show
the abbreviation for a “seller” which is usually “Sl”).
And finally, an idea to produce further bets that I
please turn over
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mentioned earlier. I can’t endorse it since I have no
real proof of its performance, but I can’t see why it
shouldn’t work. The suggestion is that we do exactly
the same thing with Open Handicap Hurdles. That is,
we look for hurdlers that bypass novice events and
make their hurdle debuts in Open Handicap Hurdles.
At least it is something to think about.
score first. So whatever happens in the second half
you should make a small profit.
I know that there’s a lot more to be said,
especially regarding the relative stakes and the
timing of some of the trading bets, but that will have
to wait for another time!
Scam Alert!
And there’s more from the patriarch!
Beware! The Return of
a Scam Which Has
Already Cleaned
Out Some Readers
In my November piece I briefly introduced a
football trading system that I was trying out. I
haven’t had sufficient opportunity to test it properly,
but what I have done has been successful. It will take
more space than I have here this month to go into,
but at least I can give an outline of how it works. No
doubt some of you will have your own ideas of how
to make the most of it. Here are my rules:
P
referential Sporting Investments of Cheltenham
were a company I brought to your attention at
the back end of last year after they scammed a fourfigure sum from a reader who trusted their promises.
1. Choose a match where the home team is odds-on
at 1.9 or less.
2. Make sure that there is in-play betting available
on the match.
3. Before the game starts place these two bets. (a) Lay
the away team. In other words, you are betting that
the outsiders will not win. (b) Lay the home team to
score the first goal. Here you are betting that the
odds-on home team will not score the first goal. This
is an insurance bet and will not involve you in a big
liability. Depending on the match odds of the home
team, the lay odds for scoring the first goal will be
as low as 1.2 up to perhaps 1.7 or 1.8. These odds
are always less than the match odds for the home
team, which we have stipulated as 1.9 downwards.
Well, it would seem that they have reinvented
themselves under a new name. I have already
mentioned this within the eletter but must mention it
here too as I am aware that some WRWM newsletter
readers are not eletter readers.
My thanks (and yours too!) should be directed
towards two readers: Brian Arnott for kindly
scanning the “offer” to me, and Richard for pointing
out the similarities with Preferential Sporting
Investments of Cheltenham.
So what should you look out for?
You may be targeted to receive a mailshot from a
company called Belmont Sporting Services of Suite
123, Westminster Chambers, 7 Hunter St, Chester
CH1 2HR.
You must now follow the game. The most likely
scenario is that the home team will score first. You
have lost bet (b), your insurance bet, but the odds
against the away team will have rocketed. You can
either leave it and take a small chance of losing your
original lay, or... a safer alternative is to make a
guaranteed profit by now backing the away team at
the high odds. That way you make an overall profit
regardless of what else happens.
The mailshot will look like the screen print below
If the away team scores first you’ve won bet (b)
but must then decide whether to let bet (a) ride in
the hope that the favoured home team will score – or
trade out at a small loss. A lot depends on when the
goal is scored and how you think the game is going.
If it’s 0-0 at half-time the odds should have
lengthened sufficiently on both bets to enable you to
trade out with a small profit. You now back the away
team to win, and you also back the home team to
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The offer from Belmont Sporting Services is
pretty much identical to the offer put forward from
Preferential Sporting Investments of Cheltenham (I
suspect the accommodation addresses are carefully
chosen for their connotations to racing – Cheltenham
and Chester both have famous meetings).
Belmont Sporting Services take a nominal 8%
commission charge, which on the surface seems very
reasonable. Reading on, alarm bells start to ring.
“All results are as said an average monthly figure
over a given time. We could win £50 one week and
then £500 the next. That is the very nature of sports
investing and so we do not guarantee actual figures
or results. You must wait at least 2 months for the
figures to work out.”
How the con works...
As Belmont Sporting Services themselves say
(and this sums up what they purport to offer):
Why a two month period? This is highly
suspicious. After all, any money given to this mob is
YOURS and you have the right to ask for it back
whenever you want. These people are just making
up their own “rules of the game”. Rules which are in
their best interests and not yours.
“Our business is to use your money to place
wagers on sporting events such as football, golf,
cricket, horse racing, etc. If you had joined “Belmont
Investors Club” through 2007 and 2008 (when no
such thing existed I would suspect!! –CK) an
investment of £250 would have produced an average
profit of £310 per month, rounded to the nearest £10.
Following on, an investment of £500 would have
produced £620. (Double the Investment=Double the
Profit) and so on. Your initial investment would of
course have remained intact.”
“Our only condition is that you let us place bets
on your behalf for just 55 separate betting days...
from this we can obtain a minimum commission
being the commission made on those bets or the
equivalent amount.”
What the hell are they on about?
There then follows a table which shows
potential returns:
The key component of the scam is repeated at
the end:
“At this stage what you need to do is decide
how much money you wish to use as your
investment. Looking at the table provided you can
see how much you need to invest to produce a
certain level of income”.
Again carefully chosen wording to work on that
greed monster in your head.
Now, the con begins! The key ingredient to this
“hustle” is GREED! Pure and simple.
We are told that Belmont Sporting Services offer a
proven track record of results – but I can’t see them!
The words “Double the Investment=Double the
Profit” have planted a seed in the head of the reader
who, if getting involved, is more likely to increase
his “investment” in the promise of greater returns.
Other giveaways?
GREED is Belmont Sporting Services’ major
weapon. It clouds any logic in any person
considering this offer. All due diligence which would
normally be de rigueur with any standard Financial
Investment Plan is suddenly forgotten. Many folk
have sent off cheques and cash without flinching – a
kind of naive trust that a complete stranger hiding
behind an accommodation address will actually
honour his promises!!
So how does the scam end?
The “membership form” states cheques or
postal orders only (now can you see why they
have invented the rule that you cannot access your
money until two months down the line – they need
to clear the cheques).
I admit that the mailshot offer does sound
plausible and does bring in customers, otherwise
these people would not be doing it!
Like Preferential Sporting Investments of
Cheltenham, you will receive, after some time, a
letter stating that Belmont Sporting Services have
please turn over
The table works on the imagination of the reader
– “Imagine if I gave ‘em £5K – I’d be laughing!”
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unfortunately had a terrible run of luck of late and
lost all of your initial stake money. They have
covered themselves by saying within the mailshot.
Bottom line
2009 starts with yet another scam, which will
sucker some in... but I hope, at least, that no WRWM
readers will succumb to this gubbins.
“All results are as said an average monthly figure
over a given time. We could win £50 one week and
then £500 the next. That is the very nature of sports
investing and so we do not guarantee actual figures
or results.”
You be the watchdog
This betting industry has unique characteristics,
which mean it attracts scam artists. No official
watchdog means EASY PICKINGS!
This follow on letter is a simple lie; the last part
of the scam.
Only in this betting industry would the practice of
odds to betting be acceptable. Where else would the
customer be expected to place bets for someone else,
forward winnings and shoulder the burden of losses?
– it’s a preposterous business relationship!
How do I know?
Simple – independent customers of Preferential
Sporting Investments (whose offer mirrored that of
Belmont Sporting Services) all received exactly the
same letter over a concerted period of time.
In which other industry is selective memory loss
encouraged? Large tipping operations, and premium
rate phone line adverts suffer greatly from this
condition.
Would you have noticed what’s missing?
There are a number of clues, which should be
looked out for, at least to ensure you a scam-free 2009.
Read this excellent exposé on Premium Rate
tipping phone line services:
http://gerryatricsscamtippingblog.blogspot.com.
Similarities
This offer mirrors the offer of Preferential
Sporting Investments (PSI) of Cheltenham, and PSI
was a proven scam. So if you see a Mr Jason
Henderson in the future (the autolays scam!) then
you know what you should do.
Its a result of one of the most popular betting
threads on the Betfair Forums, highlighting the
apparent consistent failures of one racing journalist
and his tips.
And then there’s the eBook affiliate sellers who
simply ride on the crest of a wave selling the latest
eBook to their email lists until it’s time for THEIR
customers to suffer selective memory loss with all
the crap this affiliate has sold them previously!
Payment method
Cash and cheque only should sound alarm bells.
There is no recourse to getting your money.
No guarantees or refunds offered
As I said in my most recent eletter when
exposing the potential flaws apparent with this latest
website offer at http://www.betfairprofits09.com.
make 2009 the year when you don’t get scammed.
These are conspicuous by their absence and again
should sound a note of caution.
The 2-month rule
There have been many products sold over the last
few years whose websites are now defunct. Why?
These products were simply vehicles for the whipped
up sales frenzy that happened with one quick affiliate
marketing campaign. Get ‘em to BUY, BUY, BUY;
wait for a couple of weeks, then start again!
Highly suspicious from my perspective and the
reasoning:
“From this we can obtain a minimum commission
being the commission made on those bets or the
equivalent amount is just gobbledegook. I suspect there
is a more sinister reason for this two-month rule.”
So, YOU BE THE WATCHDOG in 2009. And
please do not part with any money until you can
garner – TO YOUR SATISFACTION – enough
information about the seller and the provability of
any claimed results.
No proven track record
Where is the provable track record? Where are
the independently verifiable testimonials? They
don’t exist!
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Compounding Update
stake and continue?
COMPOUNDING – See
How the Betting Bank
Grows (and Have One
Eye on the Long Term)
30/11 1.12 £22.63 £198
w £220.63
(NOTE – again an impractical stake – personal
preference, given losing bets are very rare, is for me to
simply top up the betting bank. Alternatively £198 as a
proportion of £1,000 betting bank can be tolerated).
1/12
1.38
£4.41
£12.30
w
£225.04
ollowing on from November’s compounding
article... 1) How have things progressed in
the interim? And 2) Have there been any scares
along the way or anything that may trigger a rethink
in the process?
F
2/12
1.29
£4.50
£16.00
w
£229.54
3/12
1.14
£4.59
£33.80
w
£234.13
4/12
1.10
£4.68
£49.00
w
£238.81
5/12
1.29
£4.78
£18.00
w
£243.59
BANK 1 was a standard 2% compounding of
£100 betting bank and stood, as at 15 November
2008 at £174.11.
6/12
1.28
£4.87
£18.40
w
£248.46
7/12
no bet
8/12
1.24
£4.97
£22.00
w
£253.43
9/12
1.21
£5.07
£25.30
w
£258.50
10/12 1.26
£5.17
£20.80
w
£263.67
Given space constraints and the fact there was
no newsletter in December (thus I have two
months catching up to do!) I will list only BANK 1
results, but they will give you an idea of strike rate
and progression.
11/12 1.21
£5.27
£26.50
w
£268.94
12/12 1.19
£5.38
£29.70
w
£274.32
13/12 1.30
£5.49
£19.00
w
£279.81
14/12 1.19
£5.60
£31.00
w
£285.41
Results below will be set out as follows – date –
odds – target profit – stake – w (placed) l (unplaced)
– new bank.
15/12 no bet
16/12 1.17
£5.71
£35.30
w
£291.12
17/12 1.12
£5.82
£52.00
w
£296.94
18/12 1.31
£5.94
£20.00
w
£302.88
19/12 1.14
£6.06
£45.50
w
£308.94
20/12 1.08
£6.18
£81.50
w
£315.12
21/12 1.53
£6.30
£13.00
w
£321.42
22/12 1.32
£6.43
£21.00
w
£327.85
23/12 1.34
£6.56
£20.30
w
£334.41
26/12 1.35
£6.69
£20.10
w
£341.10
27/12 1.21
£6.82
£34.10
w
£347.92
28/12 1.18
£6.96
£40.70
w
£354.88
29/12 1.10
£7.10
£74.70
w
£361.98
30/12 1.08
£7.24
£104.00 w
£369.22
31/12 1.36
£7.38
£21.50
w
£376.60
1/1
£7.53
£41.50
w
BANK 2 looked to make a more conservative
1.43% target profit per day and this balance stood at
£148.82 as at 15 November 2008.
16/11 no bet BANK £174.11
Date
Odds
Target Stake
w/l New Bank
17/11 1.42
£3.48
£8.80
w
£177.59
18/11 1.13
£3.55
£29
w
£181.14
19/11 1.09
£3.62
£42.30
w
£184.76
20/11 1.31
£3.70
£12.50
w
£188.46
21/11 1.12
£3.77
£33
w
£192,23
22/11 1.18
£3.84
£22.40
w
£196.07
24/12 no bet
25/12 no bet
23/11 no bet
24/11 1.17
£3.92
£24.40
w
£199.99
25/11 1.10
£4.00
£42.40
w
£203.99
26/11 1.29
£4.08
£15.00
w
£208.07
27/11 1.22
£4.16
£20.00
w
£212.23
28/11 1.12
£4.24
£37.00
w
£216.47
29/11 1.25 £4.33 £18.30 l
£198.17
Loss retrieval? OR top up betting bank with lost
7
1.19
£384.13
please turn over
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2/1
1.15
£7.68
£53.50
w
£391.81
3/1
1.18
£7.84
£45.50
w
£399.65
4/1
1.15
£7.99
£56.50
w
£407.64
5/1
1.30
£8.15
£28.50
w
£415.79
Reverting to the betting bank after the £87.50 loss
(£328.59) we would have made £55 and would only
be some 15 days behind our original target date.
Perhaps we can stop betting below a certain price
OR bet only a maximum % of the betting bank
(20%) at any one time? I am thinking aloud here.
6/1
1.10 £8.31 £87.50 l
£328.29
(Loss retrieval out of the question here – top up
account OR move back to equivalent date (22/12)
and begin again?)
7/1
1.25
8/1
no bet
9/1
no bet
10/1
1.24
11/1
1.22
£6.57
£6.70
£6.95
£27.80
£29.80
£33.00
w
w
w
£334.86
(or £424.11 if
topping up)
£7.09
£62.00
w
£361.60
(or £450.06)
13/1
1.20
£7.23
£38.00
w
£368.83
(or £459.06)
14/1
1.24
£7.38
£32.00
w
£376.21
(or £468.24)
£7.52
£38.00
w
Even taking into account that £87.50 “hit”, the
bank at 15 November stood at £174.11 and finishes
at 15 January 2009 at £383.73. Not a bad return I
think you’ll agree.
Stay tuned next month to see if I can keep this
strike rate up and keep that compounding snowball
growing day by day.
£354.51
(or £441.24)
1.12
1.21
Compounding and the strike rate will soon have
the bank growing again.
£347.56
(or £432.59 if
topping up)
12/1
15/1
My instinct tells me to take the hit if it is quite a
significant amount in relation to the betting bank,
and £87.50 is!
System Review
The Sharp End System –
A Potential “Bet and
Go” System?
A
s already hinted at elsewhere, when we are
looking for other-than-live-market bets we do
need, in most cases, to compromise on price.
£383.73
(or £477.60)
This pattern tends to be the case with the nonlive-market betting systems I have come across. The
latest of these is the SHARP END SYSTEM from
Bernard Hibbert.
My new conclusions? Well, loss retrieval, unless
using 0.2% target profit of £1,000 betting bank, is
simply not viable with 2% compounding to £100
betting bank. With a ridiculously high strike rate, I
have come to the conclusion that I will simply top
up my betting bank (on occasion) with lost stakes as
and when a losing bet occurs. Remember, we are
backing horses to place so, generally, it is a shock
when a one-a-day selection actually does not place!
I was immediately concerned when I saw that
Sportsworld Publishing were selling this system.
(Yes, their superb Cashbooster system has really
been a cashbooster for them! If it actually selects a
qualifying horse before the 2012 Olympics I will
throw a party!)
Alternatives? Well what if a 1.10 selection (1/10
on e.g. we have to place £100 bet to win £10) loses?
Do we top up the betting bank with £87.50 – that
seems an awful lot of money... OR do we start afresh
with the betting bank as it stands?
The author, Bernard Hibbert, is not an employee
of Sportsworld and uses them as agents to sell his
betting system. With this in mind, I thought I’d give
it a chance.
This situation occurred on 6 January.
Workability?
Topping up the betting bank with £87.50 would
have brought the betting bank to £415.79 and made
some £62 since 6 January.
Yes, no live market monitoring is required for the
Sharp End System, BUT you do need access to the
Racing Post newspaper. The information required is
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advantage of the three months of Mr Hibbert’s
Sharp End selections which he makes available to
system buyers at his website:
http://chesterracingclub.com.
only available via the newspaper rather than at
www.racingpost.com.
As to the selection strategy? Well, I suspect the
novice would require a few signposts as to where to
look within the Racing Post newspaper for the
information required. In fact, this has been my
experience with a couple of readers.
As you can see this bears no resemblance to the
85% strike rate claimed, BUT as you can also see, a
profit has accrued (AGAIN I emphasise using Mr
Hibbert’s daily selections) during the period
monitored as the graph below shows:
Mr Hibbert has not written as user friendly an
eBook as I would have liked. In my case I found the
instructions clear enough because of my own
personal experience.
The main focus of the Sharp End System (and,
indeed, Mr Hibbert’s Refuse to Lose system) is the
Ten Year Trends table found at each racing venue in
the Racing Post newspaper.
There is also an element of the “price gapper”
about this system. One of the qualifying elements of
the system is to use the betting forecast as I do with
my price gapper philosophy. This price gapper
element can prove very accurate from my
perspective and does strengthen selections.
Input represents level stakes profit using £100
nominal stakes for ease of presentation. Bank%
represents Mr Hibbert’s advised 10% of a rolling
bank staking plan for selections.
Mr Hibbert, therefore, is looking to isolate races
in which the favourites have performed well
historically, and are fancied by the Racing Post
betting forecaster (an independent journalist’s issue
prices for each race).
Points to note
Whenever there are more than one selection in a
given day, rather than use 10% of bank staking, Mr
Hibbert advises a return to level stakes. I have not
included this rule for the results above (the
difference in profit will be negligible).
This results inevitably (along with a few
other qualifying elements for the system) in shortpriced selections.
And we know already that short prices need high
strike rates.
Bottom line
Personally, I have not come across any
methodical selection system in the horse racing WIN
market which can sustain a high strike rate (Mr
Hibbert contends the Sharp End System has an
80%+ strike rate) OVER A CONCERTED PERIOD
OF TIME over both the jumps and flat seasons.
A 5-point profit to date (around £530 profit) 10%
of bank staking (assuming a £1,000 betting bank).
I have been using Mr Hibbert’s daily selections,
which are free for three months to system buyers. I
must note here that there have been days when I’ve
found a selection where Mr Hibbert has not.
It is those words in capitals, which must be
remembered when analysing a new system. An
80%+ strike rate for win-only bets is quite an
achievement and it remains to be seen whether the
remainder of the jumps season (with the inevitable
fallers) will impact said strike rate.
Note must be made re – the time of year. From
9 October 2008 to present there have only been 24
betting days. This, therefore, cannot possibly give us
typical performance, say, when compared to racing
unaffected by extreme weather.
YES, this is a bet and go system, but you will
require the Racing Post. Average winning odds are
just under evens so the 62% strike rate complements
Performance so far?
The strike rate is currently 62% since October
2008. It must be noted here that I am taking
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System X Ultra Nasa Lunar Module Betting Super
Plan” eBooks...
these odds.
I would suspect that the Sharp End System would
not last a drop in strike rate given the general
shortness of the odds. The 80+% strike rate has not
materialised as yet... nor has the claim of £3,021
profit in three months been mirrored in the three
months+ since October 2008.
This, as I said with “Frontline Lays” and “Racing
Secrets Exposed”, is what we SHOULD EXPECT. It
should be the rule and NOT the exception. Too often
we’re left with utter disgraces such as Symbiotic
Lays and Risk Free Football... which I have already
mentioned here.
BUT there is a glimmer of hope with this system.
Selections chosen are generally confident betting
market selections and are, by and large, favourites.
So what’s involved with False Favourites?
From the very start this is a class act of an eBook
and for £20 it’s a snip with every page filled with
useful information.
The very fact this is a “bet and go” system
justifies my continued monitoring. Please refer to
http://chesterracingclub.com for more details. I
would suspect the rest of the jumps season, which
traditionally ends after the Cheltenham Festival, to
show the robust nature (or otherwise) of the Sharp
End System.
The eBook begins with a common sense
foundation regarding discipline and patience, and
avoiding the Greed Monster (I’ve been harping on
about this for ages!)
Laziness is also tackled – and rightly so. Horse
racing is naturally attractive to some who perceive it
as easy money BUT there are many many factors
involved. These factors can only be picked up with
experience (or modelling ourselves on those who
have been there and done that!)
System Review
Another Lay Reference
Guide of Sorts But
Offering Extremely Good
Value for Money
You want the rewards – you must put in some
degree of effort!
have mentioned previously what I like to call the
“Lay Reference Guides” – such as Racing Secrets
Exposed and Frontline Lays.
I
As an opener, the eBook also tackles the standard
topics of betting banks, handling emotions and
learning from mistakes. All very commonsensical
but a welcome addition to the eBook.
These are not systems per se, but rather an indepth look at form analysis as it pertains to LAYING
horses to lose their races.
A full guide to Betfair and the new Racing Post
website is included during this “laying the
foundations” phase.
The key components of these systems are along
the lines of “building up evidence to oppose” market
leaders (the shorter the price, of course, the lower
the liability for layers) by finding enough
weaknesses to conclude that “Yes, this horse is
worth opposing at the price.”
The first part of the manual over, we now look at
National Hunt Racing and the variety of factors to
be considered when looking to lay over the jumps.
The information is exhaustive (or another word
might be “overwhelming”) at the start, and is as
similarly detailed as Frontline Lays and Racing
Secrets Exposed.
Both of these manuals are extremely well written
and offer solid information. The only drawback is
actually the thoroughness of the form analysis,
which by its very nature, makes this is a timeconsuming process!
Each of these manuals, I suppose, shares a
common thread in the areas they have chosen in
which to focus on – such as class of race – ground –
number of opponents – days off track and so forth.
Another in the same mould can be found at
http://www.false-favourites.co.uk and at £19.99 (at
time of purchase) it represents extremely good value
for money and really puts the usual affiliate clowns
firmly in their place. They can keep their “Project
At first glance then, this is a manual for the
dedicated! Time will be needed in order to do the
manual justice with such an in-depth look into form.
It’s all about PREPARATION I suppose – that’s
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the key tenet of this manual.
could not make the system work) and the infamous
Autolays from that rogue Henderson.
The next parts of the manual deal with spotting
horses whose prices drift in the Betfair markets
hinting at some negativity.
If you read Ken’s site, you will find that he uses a
very interesting staking plan called the 1326 Staking
plan. As Ken explains on the site:
Then it’s on to Flat Racing and another
comprehensive look through all aspects of flat racing
and, again, “building a case”.
“The backing method is that you bet in units of 1
then 3 then 2 then 6. So if we assume that 1 unit is
£10, our first bet would be £10. If the bet wins, our
next bet is £30. If this wins, the next bet is £20. If
that wins the final bet is £60. However if any bet
loses, you will always restart back at 1 unit. The
idea is very easy to understand and if we had 5
selections in a day and they all lost, the most you
could lose would be 5 units, or rather £50. The idea
is that the system is not a progressive staking
system, which I know loses (I have tried so many of
these). It is a safe and low risk system that
constantly shows profits.”
Bottom line
An exceptionally well-written and presented
manual. I will echo what I said in the last newsletter
regarding these types of manual. The information is
there – but you need to take action to put it into
practice. This action will take an investment in time
and I suspect that those who have the persistence
will be rewarded over time.
There is a huge amount of relevant knowledge to
learn here and at £19.99 (although it says £25 on the
website), this is extremely good value for money.
If nothing else we have learnt a new staking plan!
This, for me, is a very interesting method of money
management with its built-in safety feature of
returning to a 1 point stake after each loser. As Ken
says above, five selections in a given day which all
lose will limit losses to 5 points, and 5 points only.
It is not a system per se so there are no
accompanying results that I can pass on to you.
Would I recommend False Favourites? At the
price, it is a resounding YES but it will come with a
warning. If you want “get rich quick”, then click to
the affiliate buffoons who will invade your inbox on
a regular basis.
Using odds of between 1.90 and 2.80 plays a
significant part, then, when married with this
staking plan.
If you want to garner a comprehensive
knowledge of horse racing and all of the relevant
aspects to form analysis that can make you profit,
and at a price which makes such information
accessible, then get this manual. If nothing else, it is
a great reference guide, just as Frontline Lays and
Racing Secrets Exposed are.
Do take a look at the results page on the website
to get a firm idea of how the odds and the staking
plan work, paying particular attention to how the
staking alters after a losing bet.
Results are calculated to £10 stakes on the
website and a profit has accrued for both December
and January thus far.
If you want a mechanical system, then this is
NOT it.
As to the automated system, it would seem to be
ingrained into the actual website via the members’
login page where we have the option to place our
own stake in proportion to our own betting bank.
System Review
An Interesting Staking
Plan But Are the
Selections Up to Scratch?
I will begin trialling this with minimum stakes,
having a natural allergy to anything virtual getting
its mits on my Betfair account – I’m probably
remembering what happened when the robots in
Westworld went all pear-shaped!
K
en Jones has contacted me regarding his new
service www.backtipster.com which he purports
has made a 450% profit over a year and is low risk.
Ken has decided to fight back, having fallen foul of
such services as 5startipster (site sold as the owner
Are the results accurate?
YES they are! The selections on the website’s
results page mirror exactly those I have received by
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email. Having been conned himself by Mr
Henderson at Autolays... and his antics with nondisclosure, you can rest assured that the results on
the site are real selections posted and time stamped
via email.
then, YES, the subscription charges are justified
ONLY if we use £10 stakes as advised (or,
preferably, more than £10 stakes). Remember though
that the profits have accrued, as far as I can see, by
Mr Jones THEORETICALLY using old Betfair
results data and drawing his conclusions from this.
At £120 per month, this is steep if we are using the
recommended £10 base stake to £1,000 betting bank.
For instance, if you had started in December, you
would actually have ended December with a loss in
real terms. For January to date the monthly
subscription would be covered and a small profit made
BUT we are only 18 days in (at time of writing).
If you’re considering buying this service (and
I will update because I think it is a viable system
despite the high entry cost) do read the disclaimer
/ privacy policy / terms and conditions and so
forth at the site, given the fact you will, if using
the bot, be actually handing over your Betfair
login details.
I think the subscription charge is too high if, as
mentioned, £10 is to be the recommended stake for a
£1,000 betting bank. We need to see a clear profit of
OVER 12 points each month before we realise a
REAL net profit.
So, why not experiment with the 1326 Staking
Plan and keep an eye on the results page of the
website safe in the knowledge that the results are
accurate and correspond to those sent to me and
usually received between 12 midday and 1pm.
The guarantee also needs clarification with this
point in mind:
If I were to pursue this as a customer I would
be very reticent about paying £1,000 for a year’s
subscription to the service without being 100%
sure of Mr Jones’ authenticity and integrity.
Similarly, I would need the guarantee to be clarified
to my satisfaction.
“I have also decided to add a money-back
guarantee as well. I will refund any member if after
30 days you have not made a profit with Back
Tipster. So, if you have made our system we will
refund you your subscription cost. I feel that this
gives our members more proof that the Back Tipster
system does really work and does make profits for
our members.”
Again, as previously mentioned, YOU MUST
BE YOUR OWN WATCHDOG. Approach every
new venture in this New Year with in-built
scepticism and ask questions if you see a contact
email on the website AS IS YOUR RIGHT! Be
highly suspicious at all times, even if the actual
website looks legitimate, plausible and the betting
system workable.
It is not clear here whether the profit mentioned
is gross or net. For example, if, during your trial
month, you make £110 profit, this, on the face of it,
would be impressive. BUT if we account for the
£120 per month subscription charge, then this £110
profit is actually a net loss of £10.
Far be it for me to cast aspersions on Ken Jones,
BUT both you and I must remain suspicious until
satisfied! Far better to interrogate someone who is
above board (that person will understand I am sure!)
than to ask no questions and fall victim to the cons
of 2009!
Would the guarantee therefore be triggered?
Bottom line
If nothing else, you have the framework for a
backing system and staking plan for free, thanks
to Mr Jones.
System Review
As he states on his website, selections must be
between 1.90 and 2.80 and we use a 1326 staking
plan, always reverting to 1 after a losing bet.
Why There’s Cash to
be Made From
“Price-Chasms”!
So plenty to think about from this perspective
at least.
L
ow-grade handicap races – can we really trust
any of the horses in this type of race?
I am talking about horses who are rated between
If the 450 points profit can be replicated in 2009,
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0-50, 0-60 or 0-65. Simply put, these horses will be
wearing Kiss Me Quick hats very, very soon!
Musselburgh last month.
Can you see this eye-popping price gap? Joe Jo
Star is 10/11 in the betting forecast with Mocha Java
8/1 2nd favourite. That’s not a price gap – that’s a
price chasm!
Below is a race I want to show you which should
form a template for all future race types you might
come across:
7 January 09
350 Wolverhampton
wolverhampton-racecourse.co.uk Handicap
(Class 6) (0-50, 4yo+) (1m141y) 1m?f Standard
£2,047.20, £604.50, £302.40
Now I know what you’re thinking. Would you
trust these low rated horses to run to their prices?
The first thing to note here is the class of the
race. We see this above in bold. This is the
information you will generally see at the top of a
standard Racing Post race card.
We have the glass half full argument – this
horse must be a standout to be priced odds-on. IN
THIS LOWLY COMPANY, he must have an
outstanding chance.
The next key element for this system is to look at
the ratings of the horses, particularly as this is a
handicap (see the underlined italics above).
We have the glass half empty argument – yes, but
why is this favourite running in a 0-50 handicap?
He’s no Dubai Millennium!
Ordinarily I wouldn’t, but I have found that when
there is a significant price gap favourite in a 0-50, 060 or 0-65 handicap, then they tend to win.
Horses rated in the following categories are of
particular interest for us regarding this type of bet.
0-50 as seen above, signifies horses rated
between 0 and 50. This is their official rating, or
mark (please refer to the Patriarch’s article in this
regard for a fuller explanation).
Other races of interest for me would include
handicaps for horses rated 0-60 and 0-65, as these
are low class affairs.
The next key to the jigsaw is my close showbiz
pal the price gap.
As you should know by now, the price gap is
found within the betting forecast at the base of the
standard race card in the Racing Post OR at
www.racingpost.com.
Let’s look at the betting forecast for this particular
0-60 handicap along with the Spotlight Verdict:
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Joe Jo Star, 8/1
Mocha Java, 10/1 King Of Cadeaux, 12/1
Dushstorm, Hi Spec, 14/1 Casablanca Minx,
Maddy, Moorside Diamond, 16/1 Anduril, 25/1
Gifted Heir, The Graig, 33/1 Ridgeway Jazz, 50/1
Fish Called Johnny.
The result?
Joe Jo Star wins.
And there you have it. SO when you next
stumble upon a lowly handicap and there’s a
very noticeable price gap, consider a win-only bet
on that favourite.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: In a weak handicap
the obvious one of interest is four-time course
winner JOE JO STAR who is on a fair mark on
what he showed for Brian Baugh but looked an
improved performer when making a successful
debut for Richard Fahey over hurdles at
This is, as you can guess, not a stand alone
system – rather a system to be used when the
opportunities arise.
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System Review
Final score Fenerbahce win 3-0
Fancy Backing 1/3 Shots
at Odds of Up to 6/1?
18 January 2009
Panathinaikos v Aris
Pana are 1/3 to win. It’s 0-0 at half time. You can
now back a 1/3 shot at 1/2 or shorter (1.57) Final
score 4-0.
I
have mentioned this little tactic in the past and it
has been cleaning up recently so I thought I’d
remind you and talk you through how to back 1/3
shots (or shorter) at odds of up to 6/1!
11 January 2009
Osasuna v Barcelona
To recap, look out for “in running” matches on
Betfair where teams are ultra short priced to win
(preferably at home) and monitor these games “in
running”. If the opposition score then you have an
enhanced bet.
Barcelona are 4/9 to win away from home. The
72nd minute sees Osasuna leading at 2-1. Keeping
faith in Barcelona you could have laid Osasuna at
just over evens or backed Barcelona at a price far
greater than the 4/9 pre game odds. Final result, 3-2
to Barcelona!
Here are some examples:
Chelsea v Stoke 17 January 2009
Take advantage of perceived “must
win” games
Chelsea are 1/3 to win at home.
Stoke score first. What will happen to the Chelsea
odds? They will rise given the fact they now need 2
goals to win.
We have all read the recent headlines. Chelsea
dare not lose away to Southend. Again, Southend
took the lead! Chelsea’s 1.25 pre match odds now
stood at 1.57 – what a value bet. We all know the
final score. Chelsea won comfortably.
You have two alternatives. Lay Stoke or back
Chelsea at enhanced odds. (After all, you are getting
odds far in advance of the original 1/3 offered for
Chelsea in the pre in running betting market.)
26 December 2008
For those of you with faith that a 1/3 shot should
really be winning at home, then how about the odds
of 6/1 in the 85th minute! Chelsea obliged although
I suspect the prayer mat was worn out!
Stoke v Man Utd
Again ultra short odds for Man Utd. Those who
kept the faith that this was a MUST WIN for Man
Utd could have greatly increased the pre match odds
by backing Man Utd after half-time or as late as
possible. An 83rd minute Tevez goal secured the win.
Real Madrid v Osasuna 18 January 2009
Real Madrid are playing at home and are 1/3 to
beat Osasuna. Osasuna scored first. If you have faith
that the 1/3 is reflective of Real Madrid’s 90 minute
chances in the game, then you could have backed
Real Madrid at a comparatively whopping 2.38 OR
laid Osasuna at 2.48 (which I did). Final score – 3-1
to Real Madrid.
Bottom line
This is just a quick reminder article really in light
of some exciting recent results. By taking no part,
pre match, in certain games involving heavily odds
on shots expected to win, you can readily create
enhanced odds bets in reaction to unexpected goals
(or no goals for a concerted period!) and really get
some value. Watch out for these types of
opportunities in the future.
18 January 2009
Fenerbahce v Eskisehirspor
The home team are 1/3 to win. The opposition get
a man sent off after 26 minutes. Surely 1.24 for the
home team to win under these new circumstances is
a great value bet? This does NOT represent an
enhanced odds bet strictly, BUT the odds for
Fenerbahce to win with 11 men at home against 10
men is only slightly shorter than their pre game
odds!
Personally, I don’t normally “look” for these
opportunities, I stumble across them when looking at
different markets.
No, Addendum is not a new player at Arsenal, I
just want to emphasise that, although trading is
perceived as risk free, it is NOT.
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So, as my close show biz pal Mr C from pop/rock
combo “The Shamen” would say , it is “naughty,
naughty, very naughty” of websites such as
http://www.riskfreefootball.com/ to advertise
football trading as risk free.
charge what they like.
Bottom line
In my opinion football trading manuals are NOT
worth purchasing (new ones anyway) in 2009. If any
come on to the market, then give them the heave ho. I
am very wary, too, that the actual Betfair Screenshots
may have been manipulated to deceive punters.
The only way to trade risk free is not to use any
money. There is a distinction between betting/
trading risk free and CREATING a risk-free bet by
trading to return outlay (that outlay may be liability
or stake).
No guarantees here either and this looks like
another quickly produced con!
As you will probably realise now,
www.riskfreefootball.com really is a website and
eBook that you really must avoid. At £99.95 it
represents absolutely no value for money.
As an aside, at first glance all seems fine, but
look a little closer and we see the cracks in
the website copy just as I showed you in my most
recent eletter.
The “proof” on the website is over a year old,
and simply shows a standard green screen. We also
see that these matches involved a Top 4 side against
inferior opposition. There are any number of
tradable aspects to this game when we have a team
such as Manchester United playing Southampton
and Liverpool playing Preston. Two mismatched
games, two strong favourites and a simple enough
trade backing the red-hot shots and then laying after
they have scored the first goal.
I reiterate (repetition is the mother of skill), the new
you in 2009 will NOT be taken in by these scams
anymore – YOU WILL NOT part with any money
until satisfied. You WILL note any discrepancies AND
will always act with a sceptical eye.
Not rocket science, and certainly not conclusive
proof of any system worthy of £99.95!
If there is enough interest, perhaps you would
like to see more real practical trading examples in
the newsletter? Let me know. It’ll save you having
to suffer these fools.
To claim that anything to do with betting is risk
Free is frankly a lie – it makes a good headline but
does not ring true in the real world. You MUST risk
money when trading.
Readers of the most recent eletter will have seen
the clues on their website... clues which can help us
make our minds up when we’re deciding whether or
not to purchase a system. Read this:
“You may be wondering how much the methods
costs. You could quite easily turn £100 into £25,000
in just eight weeks if you trade five games per week
and make 15% per game, so it should be valued with
a four figure sum, however the price we are asking
for is just £149.95 £99.95! Only 100 copies are
being sold to keep the method exclusive and there
are only 58 47 remaining!”
Betting Strategies
Why Level Stakes Betting
and Short Prices Are a
Viable Proposition
S
tarting a new year, I wanted to try and uncover
some methods which could be used as part of a
“bet and go” strategy where we need no monitoring
of the live market.
Note the words “quite easily” before turning £100
into £25,000 in just two months. Surely if the author
could do this, this should be put up as proof instead
of the tired, worn out old green screens that anyone
can selectively create (whilst ensuring they forget
the red screens of previous efforts)!
It has been live-market-based systems, generally,
which have proven to be the most effective as far as
nabbing big prices is concerned. And so it follows,
therefore, that in order to operate a “bet and go”
strategy, we need to lower our sights as far as betting
prices are concerned.
I’ve said it before, ANYONE can get the old
graphics from companies like
www.ecoverexpert.com, put up a little sales page,
and some alleged proof, along with a headline, and
My contention is that the price is all. For this
reason I believe that correct interpretation of the live
betting market can enable us to follow potential
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stable gambles or, if laying, avoid certain horses.
All is not lost though, and within this article I hope
to show you that focusing on “those most likely” can
make us those all important long-term profits. If you
are ahead of me, then you will realise that “those
most likely” to win will be priced accordingly.
And it’s also not the most exciting betting in the
world, but when you see that I have made 8 points
profit since November 2008 (with a relatively simple
selection strategy and betting market which ensures
a high strike rate) then I’m sure you’d happily trade
excitement for moolah.
And when you see some of the hideously short
prices, I’m sure you would be heartened to see that
we can make Ronnie Corbet sized odds work for us.
There are two specific strategies, one for football
and one for horse racing. These offer us plenty of
selections where losing would be a shock result!
Horse racing
So, we need two main components for this type
of betting:
From a level stakes perspective, using nominal
£100 stakes for ease of calculation, returns would be
£898 (give or take, we need to account for 5%
commission if using Betfair). NOTE: Place-only
betting is available at Blue Square and Paddy Power
as well as traditionally via the Tote).
1) Short priced selections (whose price accurately
reflects their chances)
2) A high strike rate
Well, you know the running theme of the latter
part of last year and my horse racing blog don’t you?
The graph represents a relatively smooth flow of
profit over nearly three months.
Yes, place, only betting!
But again, this market offers both of the
components that I need, and thanks to Fasttrackplans
I can show you the profit progression since
1 November. (See top of next column.)
Key factors
Strike rate – the strike rate here is 93.8%. How
can I maintain such a strike rate over 65 bets?
Simple. By selecting my NAP OF THE DAY, or
in other words, the ONE BET which, to me, has the
greatest chance of returning my stake and a profit to
boot. AND SELECTING THAT ONE BET TO
PLACE AND NOT WIN!
There have only been four losing bets throughout
this period, and the profit is made more remarkable
when we learn that the average winning odds are
1.21. YES, you would have to stake £100 to win
£21. In other words, these really are Vern Troyer
Remember, this is ONE SELECTION out of the
many, many horses running on any typical day.
This selectivity and focus is extremely powerful
as you can see to date.
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odds – BUT THEY ARE MAKING A PROFIT.
who, when priced at 2/5 or shorter AND playing at
home, tend to win and win well AND win often (the
high strike rate we require).
Potential pitfalls?
Of course, if in the above case, average winning
odds are only 1.21 and we are staking £100 to win
£21, so it follows that a losing bet has a HUGE
IMPACT on profits. Using this 1.21 average, we
would need five successful bets to compensate for
one losing bet.
Where can you check performance?
www.soccerstats.com is but one of many sites
which can show you a team’s performance over
a season.
Let’s look at the HOME FIXTURE tables for
England: (see pages 18 & 19).
Which is where I refer back to those two main
components, short prices and a high strike rate.
As you can see, the teams heading the HOME
WINS tables at www.soccerstats.com are winning
the majority of their matches. I would suspect that
the matches they didn’t win were not specifically
priced at 2/5 or lower.
Please inspect entries at www.back-lay-tradehorses-football.blogspot.com for a history of
selections, and the methodology used to come to my
selections. You can easily replicate this with practice.
The blog contains all of the strategies I employ.
An immediate and recognisable example closer to
home would be the Old Firm Derby in Scotland.
Similarly, Barcelona are not always 2/5 or shorter at
home, especially when Real Madrid are in town.
This could really work if adopting this NAP OF
THE DAY philosophy. In ALL of the betting
opportunities in any given day, surely there is ONE
that can offer an outstanding chance of success? (Do
note there are some days I did not bet. Why? There
were simply no outstanding opportunities in my
mind on those days.)
Of the teams dominant at home, my shortlist
would include Manchester United, Celtic.
Olympiacos, Ajax, Barcelona and AC Milan. This
should provide us with plenty of home fixtures,
plenty of short prices (ideally less than 1 / 2 or 4/9 at
home) and a high strike rate of wins at home.
There are other markets in which we can adopt
this NAP OF THE DAY philosophy and make short
prices pay dividends.
This is a ready alternative to horse racing and the
strike rate can be improved even further if we utilise
the power of trading. BACK the team as per usual
(in an in running football match on Betfair) and look
to trade out after the team score the first goal (which
is usually the case).
Football
Called the beautiful game (after Kelly Brook
once played it) I have found specific teams priced at
specific odds playing at home who can provide us
with our two main components for level stakes
success with short prices.
The odds for that short-priced home team will
come down dramatically, allowing us to lay the team
at a greatly reduced price, so recovering our stakes
and creating a risk-free bet.
Followers of football will know that generally,
there are teams in each of the country’s premier
league equivalents who tend to dominate their
leagues year in and year out.
Bottom line
Ronnie Corbet and Vern Troyer sized odds need
not put us off profiting. Indeed, they can offer us a
degree of comfort that the bookmaker has effectively
done our jobs for us. With a little research (to ensure
that we concur that the price reflects the likely
outcome) we can actually make these prices profit
for us.
I bet you could reel off a few now:
Celtic and Rangers in Scotland
The Big 4 in England
Olympiacos and Panathinaikos in Greece
Fenerbahcae and Galatasaray in Turkey
Lyon in France
Bayern Munich in Germany
Barcelona in Spain
High strike rates are ideally achieved utilising a
NAP OF THE DAY mentality and really focusing on
that ONE BET which, in any given day, is likeliest
to return a profit.
please turn over
And so it goes on...
Of these dominant teams, there are certain teams
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please turn over
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Football, too, can offer some hope, especially if
we focus on specific teams, playing specifically at
home and at specific odds (usually below 4/9) –
which belie the fact that the team should win.
A lot of defunct websites means I want to
maintain my focus now on tipster sites, which I
believe will be around for a long time (and
preferably those that disclose their results).
I will keep track of the horse racing side as I do
this naturally. You can keep track of dominant
teams’ performance by going to
www.soccerstats.com.
Target Profit Per Day Systems And
Derivatives Thereof
www.sirracingsystem.com
A large betting bank will ensure you profit with
this system. It has been consistent but if you’ve read
past WRWMs you will know the potential pitfalls.
Systems and
Tipsters Update
www.computapik.com
Still likely to replicate profits of 2009. Like the
Sir Racing System, it is reliant on the performance
of favourites in certain races. It’s simple to operate.
nine points maximum exposure per day (so when
inspecting results on the site, any losing days cost
you 9 points). Less worrisome than the Sir Racing
System given the limit on betting on odds on shots.
Definite potential to profit this coming year.
Frankie Franks All Weather Investments
(Will be updated when MORE results are
accumulated.)
Results available for inspection at the websites:
http://www.kenneth-j-wilson-racingservices.co.uk
Last results update was 21 December. Again a
highly selective service:
John Goldsmith’s betting system (mail only I
believe) is another favourite-based system I am keen
to monitor for this new year. Part of his golden
systems package, one strategy looks to operate on a
target profit per day basis with the target profit per
day being 1% of the betting bank. A realistic target –
it only remains to be seen whether the performance
of unnamed favourites in certain races can ensure
this target is consistently hit. More to follow.
www.threekeyracing.com
A poor show from the people behind this service.
Nothing whatsoever done as regards the website.
Another discernible service and a strategy I
personally find appealing. As hinted at in November
I use the “three keys” mentioned as a foundation to
find potential lays for the day.
www.winningracingtips.co.uk
Laying systems
A 28-day free trial for Paul Ruffy’s service is
welcome. A profitable 2008 if followed from
January to December. Saw some negative months,
March 2008 in particular. Three profitable years so
far. The key to success here? Take a long-term view.
www.quietachievers.co.uk
A profitable 2008 augurs well for this low key
laying service from Brian Morgan. I hope Brian can
replicate his performance for 2009. For a full and
comprehensive list of 2008 results, please email
Brian at [email protected].
www.xlays.co.uk
Site for sale. A lot of changes since I last updated
and along with www.betplanner.co.uk will no longer
be factored into this update.
Benjamin Street’s Easymoneybettingsystem is
a new system. I am always wary, I must admit,
with these multiple eBook writer systems and their
longevity – but I will give it a go – see
www.easymoneybettingsystem.com. This system
looks to lay specific favourites in specific races at
Four specific all weather venues. One of these
venues is Great Leighs which, it would seem, has
been hit by the credit crunch. Does this make this
www.punterprofits.com
A website whose free membership is well worth
the cost, erm, free! The free aspects to the site do
justify a look. Naturally, there are restrictions
regarding what can be read in the forums, but the
free information is enough to warrant a visit.
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system obsolete?
relevance to their bank accounts for example. So I
bring this to your attention. If you do register here
then use a security question which has no relevance
to any other important area.
Free trials
Another look at sites offering a free trial.
All in all, a very interesting website AND THE
PRICE IS RIGHT!
www.web.protipsmembers.com
Pro Tips ended October +24.66 to advised stakes
and + 9.77 to level stakes, whilst November
currently stands at -48.73 and -6.21.
Football tipsters
The two football tipsters I am monitoring are 3
months away from us getting an idea of performance
on a season-long basis .You can inspect performance
to date from “the Oracle” at http://www.footballbets.co.uk/football-results.php.
From the same guys comes
What To Lay www.whattolay.com
What To Lay ended October +14.25 at level
stakes and +26.89 to staking plan.
A new service
http://www.premiershippreview.co.uk has just
been launched and offers in-depth stats on specific
premiership games. This service focuses on live
games as shown on Sky or Setanta.
A 15-day trial is on offer here for this lay service
which has been consistently profitable. +5.9 points
profit to date is encouraging.
www.mdlbetting.co.uk
Again offering a 30-day free trial. It is
encouraging to see this length of time as a free trial
employed, as it does give you a chance to taste the
service before ordering!
Here are some of the bets provided:
West Ham v Fulham – 1pt under 3 goals 4/5 Coral –
result loss
Tottenham v Portsmouth – 1pt Under 2.5 goals 9/10
B365 and Betfair – result – win
Results are available for inspection on the site so
you can determine whether MDL’s betting strategy
suits your needs.
Hull v Arsenal – 1pt Over 2.5 goals 22/25 (1.88)
with Ladbrokes – result win
Add to these sites www.betting4profits.co.uk
run by Paul Waddington. Paul offers a 14 day
trial. The service covers football, darts, snooker and
golf. Again, with a free trial, you can dip your toe in
risk free.
Man Utd v Chelsea – 2pts Manchester United and
Chelsea to draw, 9/4 Ladbrokes or Totesport –
result lose
Stoke v Liverpool – 1pt Under 2.5 goals Evens with
StanJames and VC – result win
http://www.sportstipsters.co.uk/betting4profits.
php will provide you with an update of results.
The emails provided are detailed and cover such
areas as head to heads, current form, team news, top
scorers and unique elements such as the Oracle’s
Match Prices, and analysis which covers the match
itself, likely goals and likely goalscorers.
A nice 22/1 winner in the golf recently has really
stood out this month. The hope is that with the
inclusion of golf bets, similar priced winners can
occur in the future.
www.freebets4all.com
I must admit that I personally prefer this
Premiership service to the Oracle’s Football
Bets service. I prefer betting on what I know best
(the Premiership).
I am sure you are already aware of using free
bookmaker bets in tandem with the betting
exchanges. This site seems to be a great resource in
placing all of the relevant bookmaker free incentive
bets along with tutorials in the one place.
It’s early days with the Premiership service, the
emails are interesting and informative and the above
bets are the recommended bets only. There are also
other opinions within the body copy of the emails. I
hope this service will profit – it will need a good
strike rate if the odds are to remain predominantly
odds-on.
please turn over
I have one note of caution though. If you register
on this site, it asks you to add a security question
and that security question’s answer. Now it is my
contention that people will automatically use a
standardised security question which may have some
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The football maestro service is better judged after
the season finish.
inspection on the website:
Miscellaneous
I now have my hands on this golden key method
and its accompanying Value Finder system and am
keen to trial them, having received some initial
positive feedback from an early tester. It has profited
daily during his initial trial but this tester did have
some reservations in other areas. More to follow.
www.golden-key-method.com
http://www.thetradingplan.co.uk
For those who can follow the live market, this
system still performs. I’ll repeat that it is pretty
much the 16/1 system devoted to handicaps (albeit
with a specific selection strategy – see
www.canonburypublishing.com/16to1). A quick
look at the website and it would seem that Martin
Blakey has launched a tipping service to accompany
the Trading Plan.
The NH Super Trend Spotter from MD
Professional Sports Betting
The last system from MD was the Winning
Formula which became embarrassingly bad. The NH
Super Trend Spotter boasts some exceptional results
(although I am yet to trial the system in the real
world and cannot verify these results as yet).
In the first instance, I wondered how this would
work logistically – as we know we need to follow
the live betting market. I therefore emailed Martin
Blakey and was told that he made his selections
using mid morning/early afternoon betting markets. I
then asked for a list of recent results since launch.
A 35 point profit in December 2008 certainly
merits consideration from me. This is a really simple
system and focuses on handicap chases and handicap
hurdle races only.
These are the results since the trading plan
subscription service started on Tuesday 13 Jan.
As a direct contrast to my high strike rate,
low odds idea, this system is a big price, low strike
rate system.
www.thetradingplan.co.uk
As said previously, the results provided for the
Winning Formula were as impressive as the results
provided for this system. Therefore I will only be
satisfied with personal selections and my own results
which will begin now.
won 11-4
won 4-1
won 7-2
2nd 9-2
What I like about this system is that the results
can be back checked thanks to my Racing Post
mountain (which is not a tourist attraction!!) I have
done some random checking and it all checks out
thus far.
2nd 14-1
4 lost
Now it is obvious that the prices are relatively
small in comparison to the prices I quoted in a
recent eletter for one day’s selections. Why is this?
Well, this service is using early afternoon prices as
mentioned above. Still this is a very reasonable start
and market movers are a proven method of finding
winners. This service, as a sister to the Trading
Secrets Plan, focuses on handicap races only –
which are Mr Blakey’s forte.
Systems and Tipsters to Monitor
http://envision-horse-racing.co.uk
A service offered by Nigel Hallam, a regular
correspondent whose blog has been a springboard
for his successful betting strategies:
http://horseracinglayingtowin.blogspot.com
As with a number of services this past month,
Martin Blakey’s www.pro-info.co.uk tipping service
has suffered from the inclement weather and the
accompanying abandonments. Still, for me, this is a
tipster to trust. Again, results are available for
In the early throws, I expect this service to
continue the success of the blogs and I will be
monitoring it closely. Please feel free to inspect the
blog – it’s a very interesting read and Nigel has
some unique and profitable strategies. I look
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forward to reporting back in future issues.
And finally...
I am monitoring a few other systems based
around backing and am mindful that more laying
systems need monitoring.
“Give Me 60 Minutes
and I’ll Prove How
ANYONE Could
Make £55–£464 a
Day TAX FREE
Following a Simple
Spread Betting Plan –
Without Taking Big
Risks and No Matter
What Happens to
the Economy!”
Cashbooster
Another system from
http://www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/booster.h
tm – this is not worth following. In my opinion this
is another Sportsworld Publishing DUD!
www.betexprofits.net
Continues to be profitable with the proviso that
the place-only market is the market to focus on.
To remind you, this strategy uses accumulator
staking (see last month’s newsletter to save me
repeating myself). Two losing days thus far if
accumulator betting... BUT consistent daily profits
over a concerted period never-the-less.
Self-confessed ‘business opportunity loser’
Neil Leitch discovers a SIMPLE way for
ordinary people to make great money spread
betting from home!
NOTE: You must be in a position to follow the
live betting market. The system has been adapted for
focus only on the place-only market, but the strategy
is generally a sound one. Experience, as hinted at
with Bernard Sleeman, is key to be honest – so that
you can determine whether certain horses are worth
leaving alone. The jumps are in full swing now –
will the obstacles hinder performance?
Last year, a very nice chap called Neil
approached me with a strategy he had developed for
trading the FTSE 100.
As you will appreciate I get similar offers all
the time. So I got my testers on to it and tracked
the results. To be honest, I was so busy I forgot
about it, but when I came to see how it had
performed I was shocked!
I need a bit more personal focus with this section
which is why I intend to look at four to five backing
systems, four to five laying systems, four to five
tipsters, and four to five miscellaneous services to
include football and personal/others ideas. With this
focus I can quickly get rid of the dross.
Since March last year when it first went live, the
strategy has pulled in amazing returns whether
trading part-time (mornings) or full-time.
Find out how you can try his system for yourself
risk-free in the enclosed report. Alternatively, you
can go online and get full details here:
http://www.canonburypublishing.com/
wealthbuilder
It has been disappointing to note the number
of defunct sites... but that is telling in itself isn’t
it? With this in mind, I must really focus on
tipsters and systems which have perceived (until
proven) longevity.
What I love about this service is that Neil sends
out a daily email showing you the EXACT trades
the system generated – that way you can check to
see that your trades match.
And yes, as I am giving my full backing to the
strategy, you can try it out for 30 days and know that
please turn over
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if it’s not for you, you can get a full refund.
But I really don’t think you’ll be sending it back.
The feedback from Neil’s loyal followers is very
impressive. I have heard nothing but high praise for
this strategy.
Just take a look at a few of them here:
“I’ve spent quite a few years and more than a few
quid trying various systems, but none has lived up to
my expectations... I wasn’t even looking for
spreadbetting, but this could turn out to be the best
move I ever made.” John Hughes, UK
“I have to say so far your system appears to be a
far superior system compared to anything to do with
horses or any other form of sports betting.”
C Plummer, UK
“Wow, at last a system that has the potential to
make the kind of money I’ve been hoping for.”
K Pollit, Herts, UK
“Excellent service. This works. 14 out of 16
successful trades in first 2 days.” (Personal details
withheld upon request) UK
“Love the simplicity and the fact there is no
greed factor. Its purely mechanical.” P Hansard, UK
“Just to let you know how simple and profitable
this system has been for me... Never thought I’d ever
find a system that actually works as advertised, but I
think my search is over. Thank you so much.”
Khalid, London, UK
“Hi Neil, just to say thanks a lot for your time
and responses, you’re a star, it’s just what I needed.
You’re giving an excellent service.” Nicholas, UK
It is my intention to be as accurate in fact, detail and comment as possible. However, the publishers and their representatives cannot be
held responsible for any error in detail, accuracy or judgement whatsoever.
What Really Wins Money is sold on this understanding. ISSN: 1741 9018 All subscription correspondence to: What Really Wins Money,
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