DonBest Insider

Transcription

DonBest Insider

official don best
rotation schedule...........................2
The Don Best
Weekly
Insider
DON BEST EXCLUSIVE COLLEGE
FOOTBALL PICKS FINAL RECORDS........3
Don Best exclusive NFL picks.........4
6 FOOTBALL LINE MOVES
BETTORS MUST KNOW.. ........................5
It seems hard to believe but another college football season is in the books,
and as such, The Don Best Weekly Insider moves full time into covering the
NFL playoffs. We had a great start to the playoffs last weekend with all four
home teams winning and covering their wildcard games. It was the first
time since 2006 that all four hosts advanced to the divisional round. That
in itself figures to make this weekend’s games all the more exciting. Of
course, the Insider has everything you need to handicap the action.
Before getting to the NFL material, we’d like to take the opportunity to
congratulate our in-house college football handicapping champion for the
season, Don Best Paul. Hopefully you were along for the ride as Paul hit
over 60% of his games this season overall and on Best Bets. Besides the
kudos from us and several readers throughout the year, I believe Paul has
earned himself a free lunch anywhere on the strip courtesy of the rest of
the guys. Way to go Paul!
Speaking of free lunches, the same could be coming for Don Best Jim for
his NFL performance for the season. After hitting seven of eight wagers
this past weekend, Jim has reached the 55% mark overall for the campaign
and now holds a 2-game lead over Bryan with just a few weeks of plays to
make. Of course, being a perfectionist, Jim was still down on himself for
the one miss this past weekend, as Atlanta laid an egg in New York, posting
just 2 points. Unfortunately, the rest of the guys couldn’t keep up with
Jim’s pace, and as a result, the team’s consensus went just 2-6.
We’d like to thank everyone who sent in their feedback regarding the
extensive wildcard playoff article last week. We appreciate the comments
and hope to address some of the things you’d like to have added in similar
future articles. While the perfect yards per point trend on Atlanta may have
fallen, there were several other key points made on Houston, New Orleans,
and Denver that did come through in flying colors. The extreme totals
angle showing potential over’s in the Saints-Lions and Steelers-Broncos
games also notched another two victories.
This week’s The Don Best Weekly Insider has all four NFL Divisional Playoff
games covered. A full page is dedicated to each of the contests and we’ve
also supplemented the handicapping materials for the games with two
other editorial pieces focused on the matchups. One of those is of course
Part 2 to the trends piece started last week in the wildcard round. We’ve
again included the divisional playoff games log for you to develop your
own angles as well.
We are just a few weeks away from Super Bowl XLVI. We hope you enjoy
the continuing coverage. Thanks again for your support of the website and
The Don Best Weekly Insider!
Early lines NFL and college football
lines, what bettors are thinking and
edges as the line moves
RECENT NFL divisional
round TRENDS.. ..................................6
Tips of the trade to help you better
handicap divisional playoff weekend
DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF game logs........8
Last 10 seasons
NFL Matchups...................................9
(109) New Orleans at (110) San Francisco
(111) Denver at (112) New England
(113) Houston at (114) Baltimore
(115) NY Giants at (116) Green Bay
betting the revenge angle.. .......... 13
A look at each revenge-minded
team’s prospects to win and cover
the spread
KEY
ATS - AGAINST THE SPREAD
C - CENTRAL TIME
CS - CURRENT SEASON
DB - DON BEST
E - EASTERN TIME
FD - FIRST DOWNS
FG - FIELD GOAL
H2H - HEAD-TO-HEAD
L# - LAST NUMBER OF
GAMES/YEARS
P - PACIFIC TIME
PCT - PERCENTAGE
K
PDIF - POINT DIFFERENTIAL
PPG - POINTS PER GAME
PROJ - PROJECTION
ROI - RETURN ON
INVESTMENT
RTG - RATING
STRG - STRENGTH
SU - STRAIGHT UP
TD - TOUCHDOWN
TOD - TURNOVER
DIFFERENTIAL
YPPT - YARDS PER POINT
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The Don Best Weekly Insider available exclusively at DonBest.com
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The Don Best Weekly Insider
Official Don Best Rotation Schedule
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colleGe fooTBall BoWl GaMe resulTs
saTurDaY, DeceMBer 17, 2011
neW MeXIco BoWl
unIVersITY sTaDIuM - alBuQuerQue, nM
TEMPLE
-7.5 -6.5
-7
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM ESPN
WYOMING
46.5 47.5
51
faMous IDaho PoTaTo BoWl
Bronco sTaDIuM - BoIse, ID
UTAH ST
-3
-3
62.5
P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN
OHIO
58 57.5
0
neW orleans BoWl
suPerDoMe - neW orleans, la
LA LAFAYETTE
60 58.5
60
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN
SAN DIEGO ST
-5.5 -4.5
-6
TuesDaY, DeceMBer 20, 2011
Beef o' BraDY's sT.PeTersBurG BoWl
TroPIcana fIelD - sT.PeTersBurG, fl
FLA INTERNATIONAL -4.5
-4
-4
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
MARSHALL
50
49
48.5
WeDnesDaY, DeceMBer 21, 2011
PoInseTTIa BoWl
QualcoMM sTaDIuM - san DIeGo, ca
LOUISIANA TECH
55.5 55.5
53
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
TCU
-11 -10.5
-9.5
ThursDaY, DeceMBer 22, 2011
Maaco las VeGas BoWl
saM BoYD sTaDIuM - las VeGas, nV
ARIZONA ST
65
66
65
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
BOISE ST
-11.5 -14
-14
haWaII BoWl
aloha sTaDIuM - honolulu hI
NEVADA
60
62
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
SOUTHERN MISS
-6
-6
223
15
224
23
24
32
30
225
226
227
228
10
20
229
230
24
231
31
232
233
24
56
234
235
236
65
17
-7
24
MonDaY, DeceMBer 26, 2011
InDePenDence BoWl
InDePenDence sTaDIuM - shreVePorT, la
NORTH CAROLINA
53.5 53
53.5
P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN2
MISSOURI
-3.5 -4.5
-4.5
TuesDaY, DeceMBer 27, 2011
lITTle caesars BoWl
forD fIelD - DeTroIT, MI
W MICHIGAN
60
60
62.5
P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN
PURDUE
-2.5
-2
-2
BelK BoWl
BanK of aMerIca sTaDIuM - charloTTe, nc
LOUISVILLE
45.5 44.5
44
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
NC STATE
-1.5
-3
-1.5
MIlITarY BoWl
rfK sTaDIuM - WashInGTon D.c.
TOLEDO
-3
-3
P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM ESPN
AIR FORCE
71
70.5
37
237
238
24
41
32
37
24
31
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
-3
42
68.5
41
246
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued
holIDaY BoWl
QualcoMM sTaDIuM - san DIeGo, ca
CALIFORNIA
47
48
48
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
TEXAS
-3
-3
-3
ThursDaY, DeceMBer 29, 2011
chaMPs sPorTs BoWl
cITrus BoWl sTaDIuM - orlanDo, fl
NOTRE DAME
48
47
P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM ESPN
FLORIDA ST
-3
-3
alaMo BoWl
alaMoDoMe - san anTonIo, TX
WASHINGTON
76.5 79
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN
BAYLOR
-8.5 -9.5
frIDaY, DeceMBer 30, 2011
arMeD forces BoWl
GeralD forD sTaDIuM - Dallas, TX
TULSA
55.5 56
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN
BYU
PK
-2
PInsTrIPe BoWl
YanKee sTaDIuM - BronX, nY
RUTGERS
-2
-2
P: 12:20PM C: 2:20PM E: 3:20PM ESPN
IOWA ST
44.5 45
MusIc cITY BoWl
lP fIelD - nashVIlle, Tn
WAKE FOREST
48 47.5
P: 3:40PM C: 5:40PM E: 6:40PM ESPN
MISSISSIPPI ST
-6.5 -6.5
InsIGhT BoWl
sun DeVIl sTaDIuM - TeMPe, aZ
IOWA
58 57.5
P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM ESPN
OKLAHOMA
-15.5 -14
21
47.5
14
-3
18
79
56
-8
67
-2
21
60
24
46
27
-1.5
13
49
17
-6.5
23
58
14
-13.5
31
MeInKe car care TeXas BoWl
relIanT sTaDIuM - housTon, TX
TEXAS A&M
-10
-10
-9.5
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPN
NORTHWESTERN
65 65.5
69
sun BoWl
sun BoWl sTaDIuM - el Paso, TX
UTAH
51
51
49
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM CBS
GEORGIA TECH
-3
-3
-1.5
fIGhT hunGer BoWl
aT&T ParK - san francIsco, ca
UCLA
47
47
45
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ESPN
ILLINOIS
-3
-2
-3
lIBerTY BoWl
lIBerTY BoWl- MeMPhIs, Tn
CINCINNATI
49.5 48.5
50.5
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM ABC
VANDERBILT
-1.5
-2
-2
chIcK fIl-a BoWl
GeorGIa DoMe - aTlanTa, Ga
VIRGINIA
48.5 48
49,5
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM ESPN
AUBURN
-1
-3
-3
10
33
22
30
27
14
20
31
24
24
43
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257
258
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COLLEGE FOOTBALL BOWL GAMES continued
MonDaY, JanuarY 2, 2012
TIcKeT cITY BoWl
coTTon BoWl - Dallas, TX
PENN ST
57.5 56.5
55.5
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM ESPNU
HOUSTON
-7
-6
-6.5
ouTBacK BoWl
raYMonD JaMes sTaDIuM - TaMPa fl
MICHIGAN ST
51
50
48
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ABC
GEORGIA
-3
-3.5
-2
caPITal one BoWl
cITrus BoWl sTaDIuM - orlanDo, fl
NEBRASKA
48
46
45
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN
SOUTH CAROLINA
-1
-2.5
-2.5
GaTor BoWl
eVerBanK fIelD - JacKsonVIlle, fl
FLORIDA
-1
-2
-2.5
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN2
OHIO ST
43
44
44
rose BoWl
rose BoWl - PasaDena, ca
WISCONSIN
72
71.5
72.5
P: 2:00PM C: 4:00PM E: 5:00PM ESPN
OREGON
-4.5
-6
-4
fIesTa BoWl
unIVersITY sTaDIuM - GlenDale, aZ
STANFORD
76
74
74.5
P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN
OKLAHOMA ST
-3
-3.5
-4
TuesDaY, JanuarY 3, 2012
suGar BoWl
MICHIGAN
-1
-2.5
P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN
VIRGINIA TECH
51
51
WeDnesDaY, JanuarY 4, 2012
oranGe BoWl
sun lIfe sTaDIuM - MIaMI, fl
WEST VIRGINIA
60
60
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM ESPN
CLEMSON
PK -3.5
14
30
33
30
263
264
265
266
13
30
24
267
268
17
38
269
45
270
38
41
-3
23
52.5
20
64.5
70
-3
33
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
frIDaY, JanuarY 6, 2012
coTTon BoWl
coWBoYs sTaDIuM - arlInGTon, TX
KANSAS ST
64 62.5
65
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM FOX
ARKANSAS
-7.5
-7
-9
saTurDaY, JanuarY 7, 2012
coMPass BoWl
leGIon fIelD - BIrMInGhaM, al
SMU
48.5 48
47.5
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM ESPN
PITTSBURGH
-5.5 -4.5
-3.5
sunDaY, JanuarY 8, 2012
Go DaDDY.coM BoWl
laDD PeBBles sTaDIuM - MoBIle, al
ARKANSAS ST
-1
-1.5
-1.5
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM ESPN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS 62
63
66
MonDaY, JanuarY 9, 2012
Bcs chaMPIonshIP GaMe
ALABAMA
39
40
P: 5:30PM C: 7:30PM E: 8:30PM ESPN
LSU
-1
PK
16
29
28
6
20
38
-2.5
21
41.5
0
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
saTurDaY, JanuarY 14, 2012
NEW ORLEANS
-3
-3.5
P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM FOX
SAN FRANCISCO
47 47.5
DENVER
49.5 50.5
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM CBS
NEW ENGLAND
-13 -13.5
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS
sunDaY, JanuarY 15, 2012
HOUSTON
38 35.5
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM CBS
BALTIMORE
-7
-7.5
NY GIANTS
51
52.5
P: 1:30PM C: 3:30PM E: 4:30PM FOX
GREEN BAY
-9
-7.5
Don Best
RObert
Don Best
BRYAN
Don Best
jason
Don Best
paul
Consensus
OVERALL RECORD
(BOWLS)
109-100-2, 52%
(42-28)
106-103-2, 51%
(37-33)
105-104-2, 50%
(32-38)
110-99-2, 53%
(37-33)
126-83-2, 60%
(39-31)
115-94-2, 55%
(38-32)
BEST BET RECORD
(BOWLS)
34-27-2, 56%
(11-9)
35-27-1, 56%
(11-9)
38-25, 60%
(10-10)
35-28, 56%
(13-7)
38-23-2, 62%
(13-7)
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
* = BEST BET
Home Line
Don Best
Jim
Don Best College Football Exclusive Picks Final Records
3
Don Best
RObert
Don Best
BRYAN
Don Best
jason
Don Best
paul
Consensus
OVERALL RECORD
(LAST WEEK)
97-78-3, 55%
(7-1)
81-94-3, 52%
(5-3)
95-80-3, 54%
(2-6)
91-84-3, 52%
(5-3)
92-83-3, 53%
(3-5)
95-80-3, 54%
(2-6)
BEST BET RECORD
(LAST WEEK)
27-24-3, 53%
(2-1)
22-31-1, 42%
(1-2)
29-24-1, 55%
(1-2)
29-24-1, 55%
(2-1)
34-18-2, 65%
(2-1)
NFL divisional
PLAYOFFS
* = BEST BET
Home Line
Don Best
Jim
Don Best NFL Exclusive Picks
(109) NEW ORLEANS at (110) SAN FRANCISCO
+3
San Francisco
New Orleans
San Francisco
New Orleans*
New Orleans*
New Orleans
(109) NEW ORLEANS at (110) SAN FRANCISCO - Total
48
UNDER
OVER*
OVER
OVER
UNDER
OVER
(111) DENVER at (112) NEW ENGLAND
-13.5
New England*
New England
New England*
New England
New England
New England
51
OVER
UNDER*
UNDER
UNDER
OVER
UNDER
(113) HOUSTON at (114) BALTIMORE
-7.5
Houston*
Houston
Houston*
Houston
Baltimore*
Houston
(113) HOUSTON at (114) BALTIMORE - Total
35.5
UNDER
OVER
OVER
OVER*
OVER
OVER
(115) NY GIANTS at (116) GREEN BAY
-7.5
Green Bay*
Green Bay*
Green Bay
Green Bay*
NY Giants*
Green Bay
(115) NY GIANTS at (116) GREEN BAY - Total
52.5
UNDER
OVER
OVER*
OVER
OVER
OVER
(111) DENVER at (112) NEW ENGLAND - Total
DON BEST JIM’S TAKE
Houston at Baltimore
Revenge takes on a different meaning when it comes to the playoffs as it isn’t so much avenging the earlier loss but rather focusing
on advancing. Good teams are typically the most effective when it comes to revenge angles anyhow, and since only good teams
make the playoffs, playing the revenge-minded team can often lead to profits. I’ve followed a system for years that says to back
winning road teams revenging a same season loss of 14 points or more. The system boasts a 43-16 (73%) record over the L10 seasons.
This week it says to take Houston. I also like the fact that the Texans have most of their offensive weapons back and utilized them
well last week. They have as many or more playmakers than the Ravens and should be right in this game till the end.
Don’t be so quick to dismiss the Texans just because the 3rd string QB is in.
DON BEST ROBERT’S TAKE
NY Giants at Green Bay
The Giants will be looking to revenge their December 4th loss against Green Bay, a tight 38-35 decision that came down to
the final minute. Green Bay should be well rested as they had a bye last week as they are the highest seed in the NFC. This
game and side will come down to the long ball as Green Bay’s Rodgers is averaging 9 yards per pass attempt this season
and the Giants historically are awful against long ball passing teams, 0-10 ATS when they allow a 8.5 net passing yards per
attempt. Take into account Green Bay’s perfect home record of 8-0 and 7-1 ATS and Rodgers’ long ball capabilities this
game has a making for a blow- out cover.
Lay the points with Green Bay.
DON BEST BRYAN’S TAKE
Denver at New England
After backing into the playoffs with a .500 record and then proceeding to upset the Steelers in the wildcard round, the Broncos will
be heading to New England for what looks like an insurmountable task. The nicked up Steelers managed to tie the game after being
down 14 at half. No such comeback will be necessary for New England, who beat the Broncos in Denver during the regular season
41-23. We see the Patriots passing offense carrying the day jumping to a lead and forcing Tebow to pass much more frequently.
In a passing duel, take Brady to cover this one.
DON BEST JASON’S TAKE
New Orleans at San Francisco
The NFL playoffs have changed over the course of the last 10 years or so, as what used to be most important, home field
advantage, has been replaced by who is the hotter team. In this case, no one is hotter than the Saints, and I don’t buy
into the fact that going out on the road against a tough defense is going to slow them down. New Orleans has won and
covered nine straight games and the play of Drew Brees is reminiscent of a year ago when Aaron Rodgers took the football
scene by storm. There is a reason that the Saints are in the unusual role of road favorite in the divisional playoffs, they are
far more explosive than the 49ers and are only on the road due to complex tie-breaking procedures.
Take the better team, take the Saints.
DON BEST PAUL’S TAKE
NY Giants at Green Bay
The Giants swagger has returned and they are abundantly confident they can beat Green Bay in the rematch. The Packers
are at home, yet if you compare the two teams, New York is playing better and healthier than the last meeting, while the
Pack hopes to be in better health and probably is slightly worse.
I’m not calling for the outright upset, though it is possible, but this feels like another hotly contested three-point affair.
4
6 Football Line
Moves Bettors
Must Know
It’s all the NFL for football bettors
from here on out. Let’s review what
happened to the opening lines for
the divisional playoff round and how
it might affect the outcomes of the
games.
(109) NEW ORLEANS at (110) SAN FRANCISCO
Not a great deal of action on the first
game of the divisional playoffs, however
early indications are there is a direct
correlation between the side and total. New Orleans
opened as a three-point road favorite (now -3.5) and
because of their scoring prowess, the money has also
followed them on the total, moving from 47 to 47.5. People
we’ve spoken to have speculated the Saints could go to -4,
before coming down by the weekend. The total could go to
48 points or higher backed with knowledge New Orleans is
9-1 OVER in playoff games.
Don Best Insider View – Play New Orleans and Under
1&2
(111) DENVER at (112) NEW ENGLAND
The first indications are that bettors see points
being scored again. The previous matchup from
nearly four weeks ago had a total of 47.5 and that
contest finished at 64 points. This first AFC affair began
two points higher at 49.5 and is hovering right around 50.5
points. Like the first meeting, turnovers could determine
3
the total. In the prior contest, New England recovered
three Denver fumbles and turned them into 10 points. The
Patriots killer instinct is why they led the NFL in points
scored after an opponent’s turnover and it could matter
again if the Broncos make errors. New England is 13-4 OVER
as a home favorite since last season.
Don Best Insider View – Play Over
(113) HOUSTON at (114) BALTIMORE
The total on Sunday’s AFC encounter fell like a
winter cold front embarking on the East Coast.
The oddsmakers release of 38 points had no legs
and quicker than you could say Haloti Ngata, the adjusted
figure was at 35.5. That is an amazing switch from almost
three months ago when the total was 43.5, since these
combatants met in the same location. The most obvious
difference is the Houston starting quarterback, rookie
T.J. Yates and questions surround how he will react in a
pressure packed situation. Between Yates and Joe Flacco
having to face a terrific Texans defense, the total has
tumbled.
Don Best Insider View – Play Over
4
(115) N.Y. GIANTS at (116) GREEN BAY
In the final skirmish of the weekend, the
side and total are shifting. Contrary to
the other two rematches, the total is
actually lower than the previous encounter. The last battle
settled at a total of 54 and the two teams combined for
73 points. The starting point for this NFC game was 51 and
it was jettisoned to 52.5. Though Green Bay is 7-1 OVER
at Lambeau Field this season, the Giants are 18-7 UNDER
when the total is 45.5 or higher on the road. With New York
looking like 2007 all over again, the Giants are down to
+7.5-point underdogs from opening bell number of +9.
Don Best Insider View – Play New York and Under
5&6
5
Recent NFL
Divisional Round
Trends
Last week we focused on the
wildcard round of the NFL playoffs
in our feature article, so naturally,
like the league itself, this week we
will be moving on to the divisional
round. Just eight teams remain in
the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy,
and starting on Saturday, you’ll
finally get to see the league’s best
teams in action again, or at least
those who produced the best
records in the regular season to
earn a bye last week and home
field advantage this week. Those
clubs are of course New England &
Baltimore in the AFC, and Green Bay
& San Francisco in the NFC.
If this season is like any other in recent memory, not all of the Top 4
seeded teams will advance to next week’s championship games. In
fact, if you consider that since 2006, only half of the home teams (12
of 24) won their divisional playoff contests, the chances are that only
two will do so this weekend. You might be surprised to find out that
the divisional playoff round has been arguably as wild as the wildcard
round in recent years, and any of you who read last week’s article
realize just how wild that is.
So, without further ado, let’s start digging through the NFL Divisional
Playoff log of the last 10 seasons to see if we can’t uncover some
trends and systems that we can apply when handicapping this
weekend’s games.
General Divisional Playoff ATS Trends
• The OUTRIGHT winner has covered the pointspread in the L15
Divisional Playoff games. The last team to not do that was New
England, who beat Jacksonville 31-20 at home as a 13.5-point
favorite in 2008. If you recall from last week’s piece, wildcard
winners had covered 14 straight pointspreads. The moral of the
story is to only take a team in the playoffs if you believe they
can win the game, regardless of the closing line.
• Home field advantage has meant little of late in divisional
playoff action, as road teams are on a 12-12 SU & 15-9 ATS run in
this playoff round since ’06. The tide might be turning slightly
however, as hosts are 6-4 SU & ATS in the L10.
• There has only been one road favorite in the L20 years of the
divisional playoffs, and that team, Dallas, lost to Carolina 26-17
as 3-point chalk in ’97.
• Pointspreads have proven to be a strong giveaway as to which
team should win in divisional playoff games, as home favorites
of 5-points or less are just 7-8 SU & 4-10-1 ATS since ’02, while
those laying 5.5-points or more are 18-7 SU & 13-12 ATS.
• Double-digit home favorites in the divisional round are just 2-3
SU & ATS since 2006.
• In inter-divisional games of this playoff round, the road teams
are on a 3-1 SU & ATS surge.
• Of the home teams playing this weekend, in the L10 years,
Baltimore is 0-5 SU & ATS in divisional round playoff games,
New England is 5-2 SU & 2-4-1 ATS, and Green Bay is 3-1 SU &
ATS. San Francisco hasn’t appeared in this round since January
of ’02.
6
Divisional Trends by Seed Number
• Teams fight all season long to half home-field advantage
throughout their conference playoffs, however, that
advantage has not lasted long as #1 seeds are on a skid of just
4-7 SU & 2-9 ATS dating back to 2006.
• Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus
#6’s, as in that matchup the home teams are just 1-5 SU & ATS
since ’06, with Indianapolis’ 20-3 win over Baltimore in 2010
being the only positive result.
• #2 seeds have actually been significantly better than #1’s when
it comes to protecting home field advantage in the divisional
round, going 9-5 SU & 8-6 ATS over the L7 playoff seasons.
• The #2 seed’s biggest struggle has come when matched
against the #3 seed, a fellow division champ and a winner at
home from the wildcard weekend. In that matchup, the #2’s
are 6-5 SU but just 3-7-1 ATS since ’02.
Divisional Trends regarding Totals
• All four divisional playoff games of 2011 went OVER the total,
putting the brakes on a serious UNDER trend that saw UNDER
the total go 14-7-1 between 2005 & 2010.
• Five of the L6 divisional playoff games with posted totals of 38
or less have gone OVER the total. Similarly, those games with
extremely high totals, 49 or more, have also shown a penchant
for going OVER the total, 5-2-1 since’02.
• The games in the normal range of the total spectrum, higher
than 38, less than or equal to 48, have gone UNDER at a 15-7
clip over the L10 seasons.
• In the L13 matchups between a #1 seed and a wildcard team, or
a road winner from the prior weekend, UNDER the total is 9-3-1
with the home team scoring just 19.5 PPG.
• #2 seeds are 12-8 OVER the total in the L20 divisional playoff
games.
Following the Line/Total Moves
Last week we showed you how sharp bettors were right in nine of
the L10 wildcard playoff games heading into last weekend’s action.
This was determined to be when the line moves off its opening
position towards either team. This same group has been nearly as
sharp in the divisional round too, going 5-1 ATS since ’09. The only
loser in that span was a year ago, when bettors favored Baltimore in
Pittsburgh but were sting by a late Steelers TD that ensured a cover
as 3-point home favorites.
Bettors have picked on early totals as well, going 5-2 in the L7
divisional playoff games that have seen the total move off the
opening number.
Stats generated in Divisional Playoff Games
• It has taken more points to win in the divisional playoff round
as opposed to the wildcard round. Last week we explained
that only one home team that topped the 20-point mark lost in
the L10 years of wildcard playoff action, going 21-1 SU & 17-4-1
ATS. The benchmark for the divisional round is 27 points, as
home teams that reach that point total are 17-1 SU & 13-5 ATS
since ’02. Kansas City of 2004 was the only team to lose in that
span, 38-31 to Indianapolis.
• Failing to reach the 27-point mark has left home teams with an
8-14 SU & 4-17-1 ATS record since ’02 in divisional playoff games.
• The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action
has proven to be 28 points, as they are 8-1 SU & 9-0 ATS when
they do. When scoring 14 points or less, the chance of a road
team winning in this round drops dramatically to 1-14 SU &
2-12-1 ATS.
• Teams that control the time of possession are on an 8-4 SU &
ATS run in the divisional playoffs.
• Divisional playoff teams that gain more yards rushing in their
playoff games are 9-3 SU & ATS over the L3 seasons. At the
same time, teams that rush for more yards per attempt in a
divisional playoff game are just 9-11 SU & ATS since 2007. If you
recall, running the football proved a much more important
ingredient in the wildcard success recipe.
• Teams that make the most of their passing opportunities or hit
Recent NFL Divisional Round Trends
big plays are far more successful. In fact, teams gaining more
yards per pass attempt in a divisional playoff game are 12-4-1
ATS since ’08.
• The turnover has been the biggest factor in winning or losing
divisional playoff games of late, as teams committing fewer
turnovers than their opponent have won 13 of the L14 games
of this round, both SU & ATS. The only team to lose in that span
was Seattle last January, as they were beaten 35-24 in Chicago
despite not turning the ball over a single time.
Teams’ Regular Season Won-Lost Record
Trends
• Home teams that won 13 or more games in the regular season
are just 5-9 SU & 3-11 ATS in the divisional playoffs since ’06.
When matched up against a team that won 11 or more games
in the regular season, that mark drops to just 1-6 SU & 0-7 ATS
during that span.
• There seems to be a significant difference in success levels for
road teams in the divisional playoff round that won 10 or less
games in the regular season as opposed to those that were 11-5
or better. The lesser group is just 5-19 SU & 10-13-1 ATS since ’02,
while the more elite group was 10-6 SU & 12-4 ATS.
• Home teams that won at least four more games during the
regular season than their divisional playoff opponent are 7-1 SU
& 4-4 ATS since ’05.
• When just one regular season win separated two divisional
playoff opponents, or the records were equal, the home teams
are just 5-4 SU & 2-6-1 ATS since ’02.
• If you’re wondering how teams of Green Bay’s caliber have
fared lately, the last two teams in off of 15-win regular seasons
both won but failed to cover the points in their divisional
playoff contest.
Teams’ Regular Season Offensive Statistics
Trends
• Teams that scored more points per game during the regular
season are on a 7-5 SU & ATS run over the L3 divisional playoff
seasons. Interestingly, four of the L5 road teams to have
scored more points during the regular season than their home
opponent pulled the outright upset.
• Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are 12-12 SU
& 15-9 ATS since ’06. Similarly, those that averaged more yards
per rush were 13-11 SU & 16-8 ATS.
• Passing yardage has meant very little in terms of divisional
playoff success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive
passing yardage going just 14-10 SU & 11-13 ATS over the L6
seasons in this playoff round. More efficient passing yards per
attempt teams were even worse at 13-11 SU & 10-14 ATS.
• Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the
regular season own a slight edge when it comes to divisional
playoff success, going 15-9 SU & 12-12 ATS over the L4 seasons.
However, the offensive yards per play statistic doesn’t reflect
hat level of success at all, as teams with an edge in that
offensive category are just 7-9 SU & 6-10 ATS over the L4 years.
• Unlike the wildcard round, offensive yards per point has not
proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who
have averaged fewer yards per point are just 10-10 SU & 7-13
ATS in the divisional playoff round since ’07.
• Completely throw out the offensive turnovers statistic since
teams that turned the ball over fewer times in the regular
season than their opponent are only 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS since
’08 in divisional playoff games.
Teams’ Regular Season Defensive Statistics Trends
• Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular
season swept the divisional round last year, both SU & ATS,
but prior to that were just 7-10 SU & 4-13 dating back to ‘06 in
divisional playoff games.
• Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game are on a
strong surge of 9-3 SU & ATS in the divisional playoff round.
Those that allowed fewer yards per rush are even better for a
more extended period at 17-5 SU & 16-6 ATS.
• Divisional playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing
yardage allowed over their opponent are a healthy 16-4 SU &
13-7 ATS over the L5 seasons in this round.
• Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency swept the
divisional playoff action last season and are now 9-3 SU & ATS
over the L3 seasons.
• Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively also share
that same 9-3 SU & ATS mark while those that held an edge in
yards allowed per play were only slightly less at 8-4 SU & ATS.
• When analyzing divisional playoff statistical matchups,
defensive yards per point is not the golden nugget it was in the
wildcard round, as teams with an edge there are just 10-12 SU &
8-14 ATS in the L22 games of this round.
• Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season
than their opponent are 10-2 SU & ATS since ’09 in divisional
playoff games. Incidentally, Green Bay, San Francisco, and
New England ranked #1 thru #3 in the NFL in that category this
season.
• Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently
in the regular season are on an impressive 11-3 SU & ATS run in
the L14 divisional playoff games.
Teams’ Regular Season Statistics Combined Trends
In going through all of the various statistics and their impact on
divisional playoff success, it’s quite obvious that defensive prowess
has meant more in recent years than offensive firepower. While that
does not bode well for the Packers and Patriots of the world, don’t
discount the fact that those two teams were among the league’s
best in takeaways, which as it turns out, was our most successful
statistical angle. In order to see if we can’t find streamline reliable
angles that might prove the difference for us this weekend, we went
and combined some of the top angles, and this is what we came up
with:
• Teams that were better on both offensive yards per rush and
total defense are on a surge of 17-5 ATS in the L10 seasons of
divisional playoff action.
• Teams that ran the ball for more yards per attempt and forced
more turnovers in the regular season are 13-4-1 ATS in the
divisional round since 2002.
• Teams with edges in offensive rushing yards per attempt and
3rd down defense are also on a 13-4 ATS run in the L10 years of
this playoff round.
• Teams with edges in both total defense and takeaways own a
15-6 ATS mark in their L21 divisional playoff opportunities. Those
combining edges takeaways and 3rd down defense are slightly
less at 15-8 ATS during that same span.
• The combination angle that produced the most opportunities
was teams with edges in total defense and 3rd down defense.
Those teams are 20-8 ATS in the divisional round since ’02.
Summary
Considering what we’ve analyzed with regards to divisional playoff
performance, it would seem that San Francisco and Baltimore have
a better chance of advancing to the championship games next
weekend than the top seeded teams Green Bay and New England
based exclusively on their defensive units. However, the 49ers and
Ravens don’t boast quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady,
which can often be the great equalizer, and since teams winning
divisional playoff games have covered the pointspread 15 straight
times, be cautious should you go feel the urge to bet against those
two MVP candidates.
Unlike the wildcard round, there aren’t as many predictable angles
to follow this time around, and in fact, some of the stuff we’ve come
up with here actually defies logic rather than supports it. Of course,
the NFL playoffs have actually made little sense lately to anyone who
had grown accustomed to penciling in the top seeded teams and
predicting just an upset or two along the way. While fun and exciting
nowadays, it can certainly show wear & tear on a bettor’s bankroll.
Best of luck this weekend and don’t be surprised to see a pair of
matchups you might not have expected next weekend when we
review the conference championships.
7
Divisional Playoff Game Log - Last 10 Seasons
Date
Day
O/U
Conf
1/19/02
1/19/02
1/20/02
1/20/02
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - NEW ENGLAND
#2 - CHICAGO
#1 - PITTSBURGH
#1 - ST LOUIS
16
19
27
45
#3 - OAKLAND
#3 - PHILADELPHIA
#5 - BALTIMORE
#4 - GREEN BAY
13
33
10
17
-3
-3 40 38 HOME Push
-2.5
-3 32.5 31.5 ROAD ROAD
-5.5 -5.5 32 33 HOME HOME
-8.5 -12 54.5 55 HOME HOME
UNDER
OVER
OVER
OVER
AFC
NFC
AFC
NFC
1/11/03
1/11/03
1/12/03
1/12/03
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - TENNESSEE
#1 - PHILADELPHIA
#1 - OAKLAND
#2 - TAMPA BAY
34
20
30
31
#3 - PITTSBURGH
#6 - ATLANTA
#4 - NY JETS
#4 - SAN FRANCISCO
31
6
10
6
-3 -4.5 43 44 HOME ROAD
-7 -7.5 39 38.5 HOME HOME
-4.5 -5.5 46 47.5 HOME HOME
-4.5
-6 39.5 38.5 HOME HOME
OVER
UNDER
UNDER
UNDER
AFC
NFC
AFC
NFC
1/10/04
1/10/04
1/11/04
1/11/04
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - ST LOUIS
#1 - NEW ENGLAND
#1 - PHILADELPHIA
#2 - KANSAS CITY
23
17
20
31
#3 - CAROLINA
#5 - TENNESSEE
#4 - GREEN BAY
#3 - INDIANAPOLIS
29
14
17
38
-7
-5.5
-3.5
-3.5
-7 44.5 46 ROAD ROAD
-6 38 34.5 HOME ROAD
-4 43 43 HOME ROAD
OVER
UNDER
UNDER
OVER
NFC
AFC
NFC
AFC
1/15/05
1/15/05
1/16/05
1/16/05
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - ATLANTA
#1 - PITTSBURGH
#1 - PHILADELPHIA
#2 - NEW ENGLAND
47
20
27
20
#5 - ST LOUIS
#5 - NY JETS
#6 - MINNESOTA
#3 - INDIANAPOLIS
17
17
14
3
-7 -6.5
-8.5
-9
-9.5
-8
-2.5
-1
49 49.5 HOME HOME OVER
34 35.5 HOME ROAD OVER
49 47 HOME HOME UNDER
50 51 HOME HOME UNDER
NFC
AFC
NFC
AFC
1/14/06
1/14/06
1/15/06
1/15/06
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#1 - SEATTLE
#2 - DENVER
#2 - CHICAGO
#1 - INDIANAPOLIS
20
27
21
18
#6 - WASHINGTON
#4 - NEW ENGLAND
#5 - CAROLINA
#6 - PITTSBURGH
10
13
29
21
-8.5 -9.5 41 41 HOME HOME
-3
-3 44 45.5 HOME HOME
-3 -2.5 32 31 ROAD ROAD
-8.5 -10 46.5 48 ROAD ROAD
1/13/07
1/13/07
1/14/07
1/14/07
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - NEW ORLEANS
#2 - BALTIMORE
#1 - CHICAGO
#1 - SAN DIEGO
27
6
27
21
#3 - PHILADELPHIA
#3 - INDIANAPOLIS
#4 - SEATTLE
#4 - NEW ENGLAND
24
15
24
24
-4 -5.5
-3.5
-4
-8
-9
-4.5
-5
1/12/08
1/12/08
1/13/08
1/13/08
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - GREEN BAY
#1 - NEW ENGLAND
#2 - INDIANAPOLIS
#1 - DALLAS
42
31
24
17
#3 - SEATTLE
#5 - JACKSONVILLE
#3 - SAN DIEGO
#5 - NY GIANTS
20
20
28
21
-9 -7.5 40.5 43.5 HOME
-12 -14 48 51 HOME
-8 -11 49 46.5 ROAD
-7
-7 48 47.5 ROAD
1/10/09
1/10/09
1/11/09
1/11/09
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - CAROLINA
#1 - TENNESSEE
#1 - NY GIANTS
#2 - PITTSBURGH
13
10
11
35
#4 - ARIZONA
#6 - BALTIMORE
#6 - PHILADELPHIA
#4 - SAN DIEGO
33
13
23
24
-9.5 -10 46.5 50 ROAD ROAD
-3
-3 34 33.5 ROAD ROAD
-5
-6 -6.5 40 38 HOME HOME
1/16/10
1/16/10
1/17/10
1/17/10
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#1 - NEW ORLEANS
#1 - INDIANAPOLIS
#2 - MINNESOTA
#2 - SAN DIEGO
45
20
34
14
#4 - ARIZONA
#6 - BALTIMORE
#3 - DALLAS
#5 - NY JETS
14
3
3
17
-6.5 -7.5 56 56.5 HOME HOME OVER NFC
-6.5 -6.5 44.5 44 HOME HOME UNDER AFC
-3
-3 48 45 HOME HOME UNDER NFC
-9 -8.5 42.5 43 ROAD ROAD UNDER AFC
1/15/11
1/15/11
1/16/11
1/16/11
Saturday
Saturday
Sunday
Sunday
#2 - PITTSBURGH
#1 - ATLANTA
#2 - CHICAGO
#1 - NEW ENGLAND
31
21
35
21
#5 - BALTIMORE
#6 - GREEN BAY
#4 - SEATTLE
#6 - NY JETS
24
48
24
28
-3.5
-1.5
-10
-9
8
Seed# - Home
Score
Seed# - Road
Score OL FL
2001 Season
2002 Season
2003 Season
2004 Season
2005 Season
2006 Season
2007 Season
2008 Season
2009 Season
2010 Season
OT
48
42
38
47
-3 37
-1 45.5
-10 40
-9 45
FT
49
41
37
46
38
44
42
45
SU
HOME
ROAD
HOME
ROAD
HOME
ROAD
HOME
ROAD
ATS
ROAD
ROAD
ROAD
ROAD
UNDER
UNDER
OVER
UNDER
NFC
AFC
NFC
AFC
OVER
UNDER
OVER
UNDER
NFC
AFC
NFC
AFC
HOME OVER NFC
ROAD Push AFC
ROAD OVER AFC
ROAD UNDER NFC
HOME
ROAD
HOME
ROAD
UNDER
UNDER
UNDER
OVER
NFC
AFC
NFC
AFC
OVER AFC
OVER NFC
OVER NFC
OVER AFC
New Orleans took care of business in the wildcard round by
taming the Lions at home, but now must hit the road for a
cross country trip to San Francisco. A year ago, in the wildcard
(109) NEW ORLEANS (-3 | 47.5) [SU:14-3 | ATS:13-4] AT
round, the Saints were upset after a long trip up to Seattle so
HC Sean Payton will certainly have a point to make with his
(110) SAN FRANCISCO [SU:13-3 | ATS:11-4-1]
team and their travel preparations. New Orleans finds itself
in the extremely rare position of playing as a road favorite in
JANUARY 14, 2012 4:30 PM on FOX
the divisional round. It hasn’t happened since ’97, when the
CANDLESTICK PARK (SAN FRANCISCO, CA)
Panthers upset visiting Dallas in this round. The Saints also
have to overcome another obstacle, the fact that they have
NEVER won a true road playoff game in the history of their
franchise, going 0-4 SU & ATS. Speaking of rare happenings,
the last time we saw San Francisco in the playoffs was
January of 2002, when the team was being coached by Steve Mariucci and the offense was being guided by QB Jeff Garcia.
The 49ers and their fans will undoubtedly be jacked up for this game and motivated by being installed as a 3-point home
underdog despite winning 13 games in the regular season. They owned the league’s best scoring and rushing defense but
were vulnerable against the pass on occasion, a trait that could be exploited by Drew Brees and the NFL’s most prolific
passing attack. These teams have never met in the postseason but the Saints have won six straight regular season head-tohead meetings, going 4-2 ATS. Going back even further, New Orleans is on a 10-3 ATS run in the series. OVER the total is 6-2-1
in the L9 meetings.
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF
2011 SEASON NEW ORLEANS (3)
SAN FRANCISCO (2)
NEW ORLEANS
Offensive Statistics
PPG FD RUSHING PASSING
Y
PPT
34.8 26 27-135 [4.9] 41-30-342 [8.2] 13.7 23.8 18 31-127 [4.1] 28-17-183 [6.5] 13.0 DATE OPPONENT
LINE 01-07 VS DETROIT
-10.5
01-01 VS CAROLINA
-7 12-26 VS ATLANTA
-7 12-18 at MINNESOTA
-7 12-11 at TENNESSEE
-3 12-04 VS DETROIT
-8 11-28 VS NY GIANTS
-7 11-13 at ATLANTA
+1 11-06 VS TAMPA BAY
- 8.5
10-30 at ST LOUIS
-13.5
10-23 VS INDIANAPOLIS
-13.5
10-16 at TAMPA BAY
- 6.5
10-09 at CAROLINA
- 6.5
10-02 at JACKSONVILLE
-8 09-25 VS HOUSTON
-3 09-18 VS CHICAGO
-5 09-08 at GREEN BAY
+5 Defensive Statistics
Y
PPT TOD PDIF
21.6 20 21-104 [4.9] 39-23-267 [6.8] 17.2 -3 +13.2
14.3 17 22-77 [3.5] 36-21-231 [6.4] 21.5 +28 +9.5
SAN FRANCISCO
OU SCORE ATSSU OU
59.5 45-28 W W O 55 45-17 W W O 53 45-16 W W O 53 42-20 W W O 47.5 22-17 W W U 55.5 31-17 W W U 51 49-24 W W O 50 26-23 W W U 50.5 27-16 W W U 48.5 21-31 L L O 49 62-7 W W O 49.5 20-26 L L U 51 30-27 W L O 45 23-10 W W U 51 40-33 W W O 46.5 30-13 W W U 47.5 34-42 L L O
The New Orleans Saints are Charlize Theron in a black dress,
wickedly hot, scoring 177 points in their last four games.
The Saints ninth consecutive win and cover was fueled by
a NFL-record 626 total yards, which broke the San Diego
Chargers’ record that was set way back in 1964. Can the
Saints continue to sizzle in San Francisco playing outdoors?
In five fresh air games this season, New Orleans averaged
25.8 points per contest and they will face a 49ers defense
that only permitted 14.3 points per game all season and
10.9 PPG at Candlestick Park. The Saints are 9-1 ATS after
averaging 6.5 or more yards per play.
DATE OPPONENT
LINE OU SCORE ATSSU OU
01-01 at ST LOUIS
-12.5 34.5 34-27 W L O
12-24 at SEATTLE
- 2.5 36.5 19-17 W L U
12-19 VS PITTSBURGH
- 3 36.5 20-3 W W U
12-11 at ARIZONA
- 3 38.5 19-21 L L O
12-04 VS ST LOUIS
-14 39 26-0 W W U
11-24 at BALTIMORE
+ 3 40.5 6-16 L L U
11-20 VS ARIZONA
-10 40.5 23-7 W W U
11-13 VS NY GIANTS
- 4 43 27-20 W W O
11-06 at WASHINGTON
- 4.5 37.5 19-11 W W U
10-30 VS CLEVELAND
- 9 38.5 20-10 W W U
+ 5 44.5 25-19 W W U
10-16 at DETROIT
10-09 VS TAMPA BAY
- 3 41 48-3 W W O
10-02 at PHILADELPHIA
+ 9.5 43.5 24-23 W W O
09-25 at CINCINNATI
+ 1 38 13-8 W W U
09-18 VS DALLAS
+ 3 41 24-27 L P O
09-11 VS SEATTLE
- 6 38 33-17 W W O
San Francisco is the only divisional home underdog of this
round, which will be just the fourth such occurrence since
1983 (dogs are 3-0 ATS). The Niners will have disrupt Drew
Brees and make him throw under duress. They especially
have to take away TE Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles in
the passing game as outlets and make Brees throw down
the field late. San Fran has to win the line of scrimmage 70
percent of the time, running the ball and stopping the run.
The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS at home.
Game Trends
• NEW ORLEANS IS 9-1 ATS(L10G) All Games
• NEW ORLEANS IS 8-1-1 OVER(L10G) VS NFC-WEST
• SAN FRANCISCO IS 9-15-1 ATS(L25G) Against decent teams outscoring opponents by more than 3.0 points per game(L50G)
DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings
#’’s Teams
Actual
Rtg Line Edge?
109 NEW ORLEANS
-3
30
-3.5
110 SAN FRANCISCO
48
23
DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS – *BEST BET
Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan
San Francisco
New Orleans
San Francisco
UNDER
OVER*
OVER
Effective Strg
Proj Edge?
22
25
SF
Don Best Jason
New Orleans*
OVER
Simulation
Proj Edge?
25
25
Bettors’ Ratings
Proj
Edge?
24
UNDER
21
Don Best Paul
New Orleans*
UNDER
Consensus
New Orleans
OVER
9
There have been four divisional playoff games in the L10
years that have matched teams with a difference of at
least five regular season wins between them. This will be
(111) DENVER [SU:9-8 | ATS:8-8-1] AT
#5 and Sunday’s Giants-Packers game will be #6. The home
(112) NEW ENGLAND (-13.5 | 50.5) [SU:13-3 | ATS:9-7] team with the more victories is 4-0 in those prior contests,
going 2-2 ATS while outscoring opponents by 11 PPG. While
that is not a huge sample to go off of, it does at least paint
JANUARY 14, 2012 8:00 PM on CBS
a picture of the enormous tasks ahead of the Broncos and
GILLETTE STADIUM (FOXBORO, MA)
Giants this weekend. Still, the Broncos are riding high after
the mammoth upset of the Steelers last weekend and have
become a feel-good story of sorts behind QB Tim Tebow, who
has at least earned another shot as the starting quarterback
of this franchise for the foreseeable future. Of course, that
is for John Elway, John Fox, and the rest of the management team to decide. Speaking of Elway, he was the signal caller
for the Broncos the last time they won a road playoff game, 14-10 at Kansas City in 1998. Since then they’ve gone 0-3 SU
& ATS while outscored by a 111-37 margin. New England has become a fixture in the AFC playoffs, and has hosted at least
one postseason game in seven of the L8 years. Of course, the Patriots lost their L3 postseason games overall, two of them
coming in Foxboro. They also lost their last playoff game against Denver, 27-13 on the road following the 2005 season. Since
that game, the teams have split four head-to-head contests in the regular season, the most recent being New England’s 41-23
win a month ago in Denver. The Broncos are 3-3 SU & 5-1 ATS in their L6 trips to New England.
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF
2011 SEASON DENVER (4)
NEW ENGLAND (1)
Y
PPT
19.9 18 34-163 [4.8] 26-13-162 [6.1] 16.3 32.1 25 27-110 [4.0] 38-25-318 [8.3] 13.3 denver
Defensive Statistics
Y
PPT TOD PDIF
24.3 20 30-128 [4.3] 34-21-232 [6.9] 14.8 -12 -4.4
21.4 23 25-117 [4.6] 39-24-294 [7.6] 19.2 +17 +10.7
NEW england
DATE OPPONENT
01-08 VS PITTSBURGH
01-01 VS KANSAS CITY
12-24 at BUFFALO
12-18 VS NEW ENGLAND
12-11 VS CHICAGO
12-04 at MINNESOTA
11-27 at SAN DIEGO
11-17 VS NY JETS
11-13 at KANSAS CITY
11-06 at OAKLAND
10-30 VS DETROIT
10-23 at MIAMI
10-09 VS SAN DIEGO
10-02 at GREEN BAY
09-25 at TENNESSEE
09-18 VS CINCINNATI
09-12 VS OAKLAND
LINE + 7.5
-2 -3 + 7 -3 + 1.5
+ 4.5
+6 +3 +7 +3 PK + 3.5
+12.5
+7 -3 -3 OU SCORE ATSSU OU
34 29-23 W W O 37 3-7 L L U 43.5 14-40 L L O 47.5 23-41 L L O 36 13-10 W P U 37.5 35-32 W W O 42.5 16-13 W W U 38.5 17-13 W W U 42 17-10 W W U 41 38-24 W W O 43.5 10-45 L L O 41.5 18-15 W W U 47.5 24-29 L L O 46.5 23-49 L L O 44 14-17 L W U 40.5 24-22 W L O 43 20-23 L L P
Can Denver carry the “world doesn’t respect us” into New
England a pull off consecutive major upsets? The Broncos
scored 23 points in last meeting with the Patriots and likely
would have scored more except for three lost fumbles. It’s
nearly impossible to believe Tim Tebow will have another
career day passing, but Denver should still be able to move
the ball against the next to last defense. If the left tackle
can seal the edge, the Broncos might be able to set up
“passing tree” for Tebow rolling out to his left for larger
gains. Denver is 6-1 ATS as an underdog.
DATE OPPONENT
01-01 VS BUFFALO
-10 50 49-21 W W O
12-24 VS MIAMI
- 7 49 27-24 W L O
12-18 at DENVER
- 7 47.5 41-23 W W O
12-11 at WASHINGTON
- 7.5 46.5 34-27 W L O
-20 48 31-24 W L O
- 3 51 38-20 W W O
11-21 VS KANSAS CITY
-17 46.5 34-3 W W U
11-13 at NY JETS
+ 3 47.5 37-16 W W O
11-06 VS NY GIANTS
- 9.5 51.5 20-24 L L U
10-30 at PITTSBURGH
- 3 51.5 17-25 L L U
10-16 VS DALLAS
- 6.5 54 20-16 W L U
10-09 VS NY JETS
- 7.5 50 30-21 W W O
10-02 at OAKLAND
- 6 55.5 31-19 W W U
09-25 at BUFFALO
- 7 54 31-34 L L O
09-18 VS SAN DIEGO
- 6 53.5 35-21 W W O
09-12 at MIAMI
- 7 46.5 38-24 W W O
New England was masterful in last contest in not letting
Denver’s marvelous rush linebackers be a factor in
pressuring Tom Brady by running 36 times. If the Broncos
decided to run blitz more, tight ends Ron Gronkowski and
Aaron Hernandez might have over 225 yards receiving, with
Brady throwing right behind the Denver defenders. In spite
of the Patriots being probative favorites, don’t expect them
to take the Broncos lightly since their last postseason win
came in the 2008 AFC championship game and they have
lost three since. New England has failed to cover its last six
playoff encounters.
Game Trends
• DENVER IS 2-8 ATS(L10G) as Dog AGAINST GOOD TEAMS WITH 70%+ WINNING PCT(CS)
• DENVER IS 10-0 OVER(L10G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.5 yards per carry(L25G)
• NEW ENGLAND IS 8-2 OVER(L10G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.4 yards per carry(L25G)
DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS #’’s Teams
111 DENVER
112 NEW ENGLAND
Actual
51
-13.5
DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS –
Don Best Jim
New England*
OVER
10
Power Ratings
Rtg Line Edge?
20
30 -13.5
*BEST BET
Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan
New England
New England*
UNDER*
UNDER
Effective Strg
Proj Edge?
19
29
Don Best Jason
New England
UNDER
Simulation
Proj Edge?
18
35
Bettors’ Ratings
Proj
Edge?
18
UNDER
28
Don Best Paul
New England
OVER
Consensus
New England
UNDER
Houston embraced its first playoff opportunity, coming
up with a big 31-10 win over the Bengals in last weekend’s
wildcard round. The road gets tougher quickly however,
(113) HOUSTON [SU:11-6 | ATS:11-5-1] AT
with a divisional round affair versus the Ravens, whom the
(114) BALTIMORE (-7.5 | 35.5) [SU:12-4 | ATS:8-7-1] Texans have never beaten in five previous tries (1-4 ATS). The
most recent in that skid was a 29-14 decision in Baltimore
back in October, one of only two games in which the Texans
JANUARY 15, 2012 1:00 PM on CBS
yielded more than 400 yards of offense to their opponents
M&T BANK STADIUM (BALTIMORE, MD)
this season. One thing going for the Texans however is the
fact that Baltimore doesn’t exactly have a rich history when it
comes to playing in the postseason at home. In fact, this will
only be the fourth time that the Ravens have hosted a playoff
game since the franchise left Cleveland back in ’95. They are
1-2 SU & ATS in those other three contests, coming up with the only win in the wildcard round in 2001 en route to the Super
Bowl title. Otherwise, the Ravens are 4-3 SU & ATS in their L7 playoff games, all on the road and all since ’07. The Texans will
be looking to extend a run of 15-5 ATS in revenge situations when losing the prior game by 14 points or more. The Ravens
are 6-0 UNDER at home against good defenses giving up 17 or less PPG under John Harbaugh and oddsmakers obviously are
expecting this to be the most defensive –minded game of the weekend, posting a total of 35 on it, at least 13 points below
any of the other three games.
AFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF
2011 SEASON HOUSTON (3)
BALTIMORE (2)
Y
PPT
24.2 20 34-155 [4.5] 29-18-215 [7.5] 15.3 23.6 19 29-125 [4.3] 34-20-214 [6.3] 14.4 houston
DATE OPPONENT
LINE 01-07 VS CINCINNATI
- 4.5
01-01 VS TENNESSEE
+ 2.5
12-22 at INDIANAPOLIS
- 6.5
12-18 VS CAROLINA
- 4.5
12-11 at CINCINNATI
+3 12-04 VS ATLANTA
+2 11-27 at JACKSONVILLE
-6 11-13 at TAMPA BAY
- 3.5
11-06 VS CLEVELAND
-10.5
10-30 VS JACKSONVILLE
-10 10-23 at TENNESSEE
+3 10-16 at BALTIMORE
+7 10-09 VS OAKLAND
- 4.5
10-02 VS PITTSBURGH
-4 09-25 at NEW ORLEANS
+3 09-18 at MIAMI
-3 09-11 VS INDIANAPOLIS
- 8.5
Defensive Statistics
Y
PPT TOD PDIF
16.9 17 23-95 [4.1] 34-18-192 [5.6] 17.0 +10 +7.3
16.6 17 26-93 [3.5] 33-18-196 [5.9] 17.4 +2 +7.0
baltimore
OU SCORE ATSSU OU
38 31-10 W W O 38.5 22-23 L W O 40.5 16-19 L L U 45 13-28 L L U 37 20-19 W W O 38 17-10 W W U 37 20-13 W W U 45.5 37-9 W W O 42 30-12 W W P 41 24-14 W P U 44 41-7 W W O 43.5 14-29 L L U 48 20-25 L L U 46.5 17-10 W W U 51 33-40 L L O 47 23-13 W W U 44 34-7 W W U
Houston is at a severe disadvantage having to play a rookie
quarterback who has all of five complete starts. This is where
the word – team - comes into play for the Texans. Houston
has to run the ball with authority to relieve the pressure on
T.J. Yates. If they can, the first year quarterback began to
find a connection with Andre Johnson in the second half
last week, which would open up space for the tight ends
just outside the hash marks. The Houston defense needs
their best effort of the year to even the playing field and win
the field position battle. The Texans are 15-5 ATS revenging
a 14 or more point defeat.
DATE OPPONENT
01-01 at CINCINNATI
- 3 37.5 24-16 W W O
12-24 VS CLEVELAND
-10.5 38.5 20-14 W L U
12-18 at SAN DIEGO
- 1 45 14-34 L L O
-16 41.5 24-10 W L U
12-04 at CLEVELAND
- 7 38 24-10 W W U
11-24 VS SAN FRANCISCO - 3 40.5 16-6 W W U
11-20 VS CINCINNATI
- 7 40 31-24 W P O
11-13 at SEATTLE
- 6.5 38.5 17-22 L L O
11-06 at PITTSBURGH
+ 3 42 23-20 W W O
10-30 VS ARIZONA
-11 42.5 30-27 W L O
10-24 at JACKSONVILLE
-10 38.5 7-12 L L U
10-16 VS HOUSTON
- 7 43.5 29-14 W W U
10-02 VS NY JETS
- 5 43 34-17 W W O
09-25 at ST LOUIS
- 5.5 42 37-7 W W O
09-18 at TENNESSEE
- 5.5 38.5 13-26 L L O
09-11 VS PITTSBURGH
- 1 37 35-7 W W O
How Baltimore neutralizes Wade Phillips defense is with
Ray Rice. The Ravens should include 30 touches by Rice
running and catching the pigskin. Baltimore would love to
see Anquan Bolden back to near 100 percent from knee
surgery since he abused the Texans secondary for eight
receptions and 132 yards back in October. The assignment
of the defense is simple, stop Houston’s running game and
make Yates throw the ball. This is the Ravens first home
playoff game since the 2006 season and they are 4-1 ATS as
postseason favorites.
Game Trends
• HOUSTON IS 8-1-1 ATS(L10G) on Road Against solid defensive teams allowing less than 20 PPG(CS)
• BALTIMORE IS 7-3 UNDER(L10G) at Home Against decent passing defenses yielding less than 6.15 yards per attempt(CS)
• BALTIMORE IS 3-7 ATS(L10G) Against elite defensive teams allowing less than 17 PPG(CS)
DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS #’’s Teams
113 HOUSTON
114 BALTIMORE
Actual
35.5
-7.5
DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS –
Don Best Jim
Houston*
UNDER
Power Ratings
Rtg Line Edge?
23
27
-7.5
*BEST BET
Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan
Houston
Houston*
OVER
OVER
Effective Strg
Proj Edge?
20 OVER
24
Don Best Jason
Houston
OVER*
Simulation
Proj Edge?
18
OVER
22
Bettors’ Ratings
Proj
Edge?
17
OVER
23
Don Best Paul
Baltimore*
OVER
Consensus
Houston
OVER
11
New York is certainly saying all the right things after beating the
Falcons last weekend in the wildcard round as it prepares for
a rematch with top-seeded Green Bay in the divisional round.
(115) NY GIANTS [SU:10-7 | ATS:9-7-1] AT
Bettors seem to be buying the Giants’ argument as well, having
quickly moved the opening line of Packers -9 down to -7.5
(116) GREEN BAY (-7.5 | 52.5) [SU:15-1 | ATS:11-5]
in the matter of 24 hours. Still, the fact remains that an upset
here would be unprecedented considering that this is only the
JANUARY 15, 2012 4:30 PM on FOX
second time in the L20 years that a divisional round home team
LAMBEAU FIELD (GREEN BAY, WI)
had at least six more regular season wins than its opponent and
in that last game, 15-1 Minnesota routed 9-7 Arizona 41-21 as a
16.5-point favorite. This week’s pointspread is far shy of that, and
being impacted by first, the fact that the Packers only beat the
Giants by three points back in early December, and second, that
the Giants seem to have awaken from their death bed just a few weeks back to win three straight games. The Packers should be
back near full strength for this contest after juggling their offensive line and defensive units for the second half of the season, as
they begin the playoff quest to repeat as Super Bowl Champions. The road will be much different this time around if for no other
reason than they won’t have to be on the road. Green Bay won all four postseason games away from home last year but earned
home field this time around as the NFC’s #1 seed. Ironically, the Packers’ current magnificent stretch of football began with the
last time they hosted the Giants. That 45-17 victory in week 16 of the 2010 season set off a run of 21-1 for HC Mike McCarthy’s team.
The Giants are back in the postseason after a 2-year hiatus, and are now 5-3 in the playoffs under Tom Coughlin. Green Bay is on a
5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS run in its L7 divisional round playoff games. The L4 games between these teams shot OVER the total, producing
56.5 PPG.
NFC DIVISIONAL PLAYOFF
2011 SEASON NY GIANTS (4)
GREEN BAY (1)
ny giants
Y
PPT
24.6 21 26-94 [3.6] 37-22-294 [8.1] 15.8 35.0 22 25-97 [3.9] 34-23-308 [8.9] 11.6 DATE OPPONENT
01-08 VS ATLANTA
01-01 VS DALLAS
12-24 at NY JETS
12-18 VS WASHINGTON
12-11 at DALLAS
12-04 VS GREEN BAY
11-28 at NEW ORLEANS
11-20 VS PHILADELPHIA
11-13 at SAN FRANCISCO
11-06 at NEW ENGLAND
10-30 VS MIAMI
10-16 VS BUFFALO
10-09 VS SEATTLE
10-02 at ARIZONA
09-19 VS ST LOUIS
09-11 at WASHINGTON
LINE -3 -3 +3 - 6 + 4.5
+7 +7 - 5.5
+ 4 + 9.5
- 9.5
-3 - 9.5
-1 +8 -7 -2 Defensive Statistics
Y
PPT TOD PDIF
23.6 21 27-118 [4.4] 37-23-251 [6.8] 15.6 +7 +1.0
22.4 22 24-112 [4.7] 40-24-300 [7.5] 18.4 +24 +12.6
green bay
OU SCORE ATSSU OU
47 24-2 W W U 48 31-14 W W U 46 29-14 W W U 45 10-23 L L U 49 37-34 W W O 54 35-38 L W O 51 24-49 L L O 45 10-17 L L U 43 20-27 L L O 51.5 24-20 W W U 43 20-17 W L U 49 27-24 W P O 43.5 25-36 L L O 45.5 31-27 W W O 46.5 29-16 W W U 43 28-16 W W O 41 14-28 L L O
There is nothing like the confidence of a New Yorker (well
maybe a handicapper on a 14-1 run) and the Giants started
talking upset right after stomping Atlanta. The Giants are
running the ball with authority, especially Brandon Jacobs,
getting tremendous pressure from its front four and Eli
Manning is making plays with his arm and feet in clutch
situations. The Giants swagger is reminiscent of 2007 when
they started to roll and for all his critics, Tom Coughlin is
a solid big game coach. This is New York’s first true road
game since Dec. 11 and they are 16-6 ATS away after three
or more spread covers.
DATE OPPONENT
01-01 VS DETROIT
+ 6.5 42 45-41 W W O
12-25 VS CHICAGO
-13.5 41 35-21 W W O
12-18 at KANSAS CITY
-11.5 46 14-19 L L U
12-11 VS OAKLAND
-11.5 50 46-16 W W O
12-04 at NY GIANTS
- 7 54 38-35 W L O
11-24 at DETROIT
- 4 54.5 27-15 W W U
11-20 VS TAMPA BAY
-13.5 48.5 35-26 W L O
11-14 VS MINNESOTA
-12 49.5 45-7 W W O
11-06 at SAN DIEGO
- 5.5 50.5 45-38 W W O
10-23 at MINNESOTA
-10 47 33-27 W L O
10-16 VS ST LOUIS
-14 47 24-3 W W U
10-09 at ATLANTA
- 6 54 25-14 W W U
10-02 VS DENVER
-12.5 46.5 49-23 W W O
09-25 at CHICAGO
- 4 45 27-17 W W U
09-18 at CAROLINA
-10.5 45 30-23 W L O
09-08 VS NEW ORLEANS
- 5 47.5 42-34 W W O
The number is 24. In the past two seasons, the only game
Green Bay has lost (21-1, 18-3 ATS) when they rushed 24 or
more times was to New England, with an injured Aaron
Rodgers on the bench. They beat the Giants previously
by keeping them honest running the ball to slow the pass
rush. With presumed New York defensive adjustments,
either Jermichael Finley or Greg Jennings will be a featured
target, along with quite possibly James Jones having a real
opportunity to star. The Packers defense requires Ryan
Pickett and B.J. Raji to play like studs.
Game Trends
• GREEN BAY IS 8-2 ATS(L10G) at Home as Fav All Games
• NY GIANTS IS 10-14-1 ATS(L25G) Against poor rushing defenses yielding more than 4.5 yards per carry(CS)
• GREEN BAY IS 9-1 OVER(L10G) Against decent offensive teams averaging more than 5.6 yards per play(L25G)
DON BEST STRENGTH RATINGS Power Ratings
Effective Strg
#’’s Teams
Actual
Rtg Line Edge?
Proj Edge?
115 NY GIANTS
52.5
23
21
116 GREEN BAY
-7.5
31
-11.5
29
DON BEST EXCLUSIVE PICKS – *BEST BET
Don Best Jim Don Best Robert Don Best Bryan Don Best Jason
Green Bay*
Green Bay*
Green Bay
Green Bay*
UNDER
OVER
OVER*
OVER
12
Simulation
Proj Edge?
22
OVER
37
GB
Bettors’ Ratings
Proj
Edge?
21
31
Don Best Paul
NY Giants*
OVER
Consensus
Green Bay
OVERR
Betting the
Revenge
Angle
or weaknesses of the non-rookies on the Broncos, it is
McDaniels. You might think the Broncos would really have
a conundrum playing on short rest against a well-rested
opponent. Yet, we find when a home team has 13 days off
compared to foes with just six, they are an untrustworthy
5-10 ATS. Denver has to run the ball, not make miscues and
hope Tebow can hit shots down the field again.
If you haven’t already, all week
long you will hear about revenge
with three of the four divisional
games fitting that criterion. All three
teams that lost the first time to
their opponents are on the road and
decided underdogs at a touchdown
or more. Are these teams capable
of pulling the upset or just good
enough from bettor’s perspective to
cover the spread? And, can we learn
anything from history that might
help us?
Houston opened as 7-point underdogs
at Baltimore
The Texans played their style of game in their first
postseason appearance against Cincinnati in pulling
away for a convincing 31-10 victory. Traveling on the road
in a hostile environment as there is in the NFL brings a
different set of challenges. Houston fell to Baltimore 29-14
on Oct. 16, yet only trailed 19-14 in the early stages of the
fourth quarter. The Texans running game was bottled
against the Ravens they managed just 3.7 yards per carry
and then starting quarterback Matt Schaub played very
uncomfortably in the pocket with Baltimore defenders
coming towards and around him.
The revenger is however a fairly decent wager at 24-18 ATS
in this circumstance. If the hunter is playing in the same
venue as the previous matchup, they are 10-13 and 13-10
ATS and if the location is switched, they are 9-10 and 11-8
ATS. It’s not going to pay off your mortgage supporting
these revenge-filled squads, but it could make an extra
payment depending on how much one wagers per game.
This time around it will be T.J. Yates that will have to
maintain his poise, particularly early in the game when the
Ravens defense will be at a fever pitch. Yates cannot let
it turn into a Baltimore feeding frenzy. Houston combats
this by blocking down and running outside the tackles with
Arian Foster. The Texans’ Foster is fantastic at bouncing
B-gap runs outside and the Ravens run defense is most
vulnerable outside (4.6 YPC), as opposed to inside, where
they permit just over three yards a run. Joe Flacco is
Baltimore’s wild card to the Super Bowl and if Wade Phillips
blitzes can heat up the former Delaware signal caller,
Houston might get a pick or two from their secondary.
Asking a rookie quarterback to lead a team to victory on
the road in a tall order against an experienced foe, but
home favorites are only 15-21 ATS this round.
Here is a look at each revenge-minded team’s prospects to
win and cover the spread.
New York opened as 9-point underdogs
at Green Bay
Because of conference play, rematches are a common
occurrence in the postseason, happening 42 times in the
last seven years. The revenging team might have ample
motivation, but are less than a 50-50 proposition (though
potentially profitable on the money line as underdogs) at
19-23 straight up.
Denver opened as 13.5-point underdogs
at New England
Almost a month ago, the Broncos were beaten soundly at
home against the Patriots 41-23 as a touchdown underdog.
In that contest, New England really had no answers for
Denver’s run-option offense that rushed for 252 yards and
had several long plays that gashed the defense for 8.1
yards per carry. What undermined the Broncos on that day
was three lost fumbles, giving Tom Brady and company
additional opportunities to score. Coach Bill Belichick’s
game plan in that first encounter was to use the space
vacated by blitzing outside linebackers Von Miller and Elvis
Dumervil and having his talented tight ends fill those voids.
Denver attempted to counter by paying greater attention
to breakout star Rob Gonkowski, but Brady burned them
with nine completions (129 yards) to fellow TE Aaron
Hernandez.
Denver will face one major disadvantage coming into this
encounter. This was totally unforeseen with former Denver
head coach Josh McDaniels returning to be New England’s
offensive coordinator next season with the departure of
Bill O’Brien to Penn State. If anyone knows the strengths
When asked about his team’s chances in Green Bay after
wearing down Atlanta 24-2, DE Jason Pierre-Paul said, “…
We are going to go out there and give all our effort and we
are going to walk away with a win.” He’s not the only that
feels that way as the Giants quickly fell from oddsmakers
number release to +8.5. The Giants confidence stems from
their defense playing much better the last several weeks
which has led to 4-1 SU and ATS records. In particular, the
front four has played like the All-State insurance guy in
making mayhem. The Packers offensive line is far from
cohesive because of injury and New York believes they can
get to Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay’s defense is extremely vulnerable (32nd) and
the Giants are certain they can run the ball and shorten the
game, keeping constant pressure on the Pack’s offense
to score. The last meeting on Dec. 4 was a dead heat with
Rodgers’ game-winning plays the difference. Teams like the
Packers with the better record in this round are only 6-12
ATS the last five years. Nevertheless, the bigger favorite in
the two NFC games in the divisional round is 19-6-1 ATS and
the Packers are 7-0 ATS in last seven tries with two weeks
of preparation.
13

DonBest Insider

Transcription

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