Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net

Transcription

Kaihan Krippendorff
www.kaihan.net
www.kaihan.net
 2013 Kaihan Krippendorff All Rights Reserved.
Go home
Wait
Cross
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2
The Fourth Option®
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The Pattern
Competition
Grows Rigid
Outthinker
Emerges
See a
“Fourth
Option”
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Ignore
and
laugh
Outthinker
wins
“First they ignore you,
then they laugh at you,
then they fight you,
then you win.”
Mohandas Gandhi
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Business outtinkers
Richard
Branson
Oprah
Winfrey
Dhirubhai
Ambani
Bill Gates
Sōichirō
Honda
Charles
Revson
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Elizabeth
Arden
Henry Ford
Social outthinkers
Martin Luther
King, Jr.
Rosa Parks
Mother
Teresa
Mahatma
Gandhi
Mohammad
Yunus
Nelson
Mandela
Margaret
Thatcher
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Benjamin
Franklin
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Mohammad Yunus
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Ratan Tata
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Betsy Johnson
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Thomas Edison
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Ray Kroc
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The New Outthinkers
Mark Zuckerberg
CEO, Facebook
Meg Whitman
CEO, HP
Elon Musk
CEO, Tesla Motors
Arianna Huffington CEO, Huffington Post
Cory Booker
Mayor, Newark, NJ, USA
Marissa Mayer
CEO, Yahoo
Wayne Gattinella
CEO, WebMD
Robert Keane
Sabrina Herrera
Cofounder, Genomma Lab CEO, Vistaprint
Susan Lyne
CEO, Gilt Groupe
Larry Page
CEO, Google
Mark Vadon
Founder, Blue Nile
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Josh Linkner
Founder, ePrize
Tom Adams
CEO, Rosetta Stone
Oprah Winfrey
CEO, Harpo Productions
Some Victims
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Fortune 500 Survival is Falling
Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion;
Kauffman Foundation, June 2012
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Most Admired Companies Replaced
2000
1. GE
2. Microsoft
3. Dell
4. Cisco
5. Wal-Mart
2005
1. Dell
2. GE
3. Starbucks*
4. Wal-Mart
5. Southwest A.*
2010
1. Apple*
2. Google*
3. Berkshire H.*
4. J&J*
5. Amazon*
Source: Fortune Magazine, Most Admired Companies
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URBN Revenue History
Urban Outfitters Annuals Sales
$ billions
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E
Source: Value Line
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URBN Results
Growth
Profitability
5Y Ave.* Revenue CAGR (%)
5Y Ave.* EBITD Margin (%)
URBN
ANF**
Industry
16
5
21
12
12
14
* 5 years average as of November 2011
** Abercrombie & Fitch, closest peer by market capitalization
Source: Reuters
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College students only
Used clothing
Artists not managers in charge
Manager freedom
…
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8 Ps
Position
Product
Price
Promotion
Processes
Place
Physical
experience
People
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Urban Outfitters
Position
Product
Price
Promotion
Processes
Place
Physical
experience
People
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The “Outthinker” score
Company (score)
Tesla Motors (6)
Rosetta Stone (7)
Pos.
Pos.
Price
Prod.
Promo.
Proc.
Place
Phys.
People
Price
Proc.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
2
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
Dell (8)
Pos.
Price
Prod.
Proc.
Genomma Lab (8)
Prod.
Walmart (7)
Price
Proc.
Price
Proc.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
Urban Outfitters(9)
Pos.
Prod.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
Pos.
Prod.
Price
Proc.
Pos.
Prod.
Price
Proc.
Pos.
Prod.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
Vistaprint (10)
Pos.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
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Southwest (8)
Price
Proc.
Prod.
Promo.
Place
Phys.
People
Outthinkers Grow Faster More Profitably
Outthink Score v. Performance for Company Pairs
10
Relative Performance*
8
6
y = 0.8878x + 0.3836
R² = 0.4396
4
2
0
‐2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
‐4
‐6
Relative Outthinker Score
* Performance score = 5 year average revenue CAGR X 5 year average EBITDA margin
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Where do you have “fourth options”?
0 – No
difference
Position
Product
Price
Promotion
Processes
Place
Physical
experience
People
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1 – Up to 4
year
difference
2 – 5+ year
difference
The Choice is Yours
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Five Habits
Mental time‐
travel The detailed envisioning of a possible future
Attacking the interconnected system Looking at the interconnections and interdepen‐
dence of the whole rather than the parts
Frame‐shifting Fluid changing of perspectives on the problem
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Disruptive mind‐set Perception Shaping
Preferring strategies that the competition will not respond effectively to, that the system will not resist Shaping other’s mental maps through strategic use of language
Five Steps
Address 5 habits
Mental time‐
travel
Attacking the inter‐
connected system
Frame‐shifting
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Disruptive mind‐set
Perception shaping
How Do Great Strategists See “Fourth
Options?
Alexandra Kosteniuk
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They Overcome a Mental Limitation
Consciousness Phonetic loop
Visuo‐special sketchpad
Episodic buffer
Source: Baddeley model of short term working memory
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More Patterns – More Options
Relative number of patterns chess players recognize
Grand master
Master
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Expert
Narratives Are Culturally Embedded
Europe & North America –
Fairy tales
Japan – Koan
India – Puranas
China – 36 stratagems
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Identifying Outthinkers
Revenue growth
(CAGR)
(EBITDA)
Profit margin
Value creation (TRS) www.kaihan.net
Core Research
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The Outthinker Playbook
#22 Move early to the next battleground
#34 Coordinate the uncoordinated
#7 Force two‐front battle
#33 Be good
#32 Create something out of nothing
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“He who is at first to battle is at ease; he who is late to battle is at labor.”
Sun Tzu
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22 Move Early to the Next Battleground
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“I just think a future in which anyone can shoot stuff into space is more exciting than one which only the government can.”
Elon Musk, founder,
Space-X
(2003 interview)
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US Farmland Value per Acre
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Identify and move early to the next
battleground.
Where is the next battleground?
- Technological trends?
- Social shifts?
- Geographies?
- Buying patterns?
- Needs?
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#33 Be good
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34
Coordinate the Uncoordinated
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34
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34
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34
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34
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34
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53
34
Combine and coordinate independent
elements within your environment to
orchestrate much greater power.
Who would we want to coordinate?
- Customers
- Experts
- Employees
- Real estate
- Regulators
- Competitors
- Driveways
-…
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#33 Be good
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7 Force a Two-Front Battle
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Film Animation Co.s
Chi
Zhao
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“There is no physical analog for
what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos
Tablet producers
Content
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Kindle
“There is no physical analog for
what Amazon.com is becoming.”
- Jeff Bezos
Cloud providers
Retail
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Cloud services
7
Force a two-front battle
Project your unique capability into a new
area in such a way that it forces a twofront battle.
What is your unique advantage/
capability?
Into what new area could you project this?
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#33 Be good
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33
Be Good
Share‐
holders
Environment
Community
Corporation
Govern‐
ment /
country
Employees
Customers
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33 Be Good
“These days I think more and more people want to use services from companies that believe in something beyond simply maximizing profits”
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO, Facebook
Source: Wall Street Journal, “A $10 Billion Stock Sale Would Dwarf Google’s”, February 2, 2012
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33 Be Good
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64
33 Be Good
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The Holstee
Manifesto
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33
Be good
What would it look like to be good to the
community (or to your competition)?
How can you gain strategic power by
benefiting key stakeholders that you are
not now considering?
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#33 Be good
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32
Create Something Out of Nothing
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32
Create Something Out of Nothing
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Source: http://peanutbuttereggdirt.com/d/tag/charts/
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32 Create Something Out of Nothing
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Create something out of nothing
New categories
• Apple iPad
• Apple iPod
• Sports drink (Gatorade)
• Energy drink (Red Bull)
• …
New occasions
• Fabrese moment (P & G)
• Engagement ring (DeBeers)
• Tequila moment (spirits
companies)
• Valentines Day (Hallmark)
• White day (Japanese sweet co.s)
• …
New users
• Calloway Golf
• …
New regulations
• Cancer insurance (AFLAC)
• …
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32 Create something out of nothing
Add a new piece the board (while others
are playing with the pieces on the board).
What can you create?
- New categories?
- New occasions or needs?
- New customers?
- New suppliers?
- New distributors?
- New regulations?
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Where is the next battleground?
Who could you coordinate
How can you project into a new sector?
#33 Be good
How can you be good?
What can you create?
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Step 4 – Analyze
High Crazy ideas
Winning moves
Game plan
Impact
1. …
• How far would this get me toward my goal?
2. …
• How long before the competition responds?
3. …
Wastes of time Tactics
4. …
5. …
Low
Difficult
Easy
• Can we do this quickly?
• Is this inexpensive?
• Do we have the capability?
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Personal Example
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Mohammad Yunus
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Ratan Tata
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Betsy Johnson
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Thomas Edison
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Ray Kroc
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[email protected] www.kaihan.net @kaihan
• Blog
• Newsletter
• Tools
• Videos
• Webinars
• Seminars
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Backup Charts
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Eras of Corporate Creation
Source: “What Does Fortune 500 Turnover Mean?” Dane Stangler and Sam Arbesman Ewing Marion;
Kauffman Foundation, June 2012
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Step 4 – Analyze
High
1. Plot each idea
Impact
2. Pick two crazy ideas and brainstorm how to make them feasible
3. Pick 3‐7 ideas
(your “Game Plan”)
Low
Difficult
Easy
Ease
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Ingvar Kamprad
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Paradigm Shifts
© Kaihan Krippendorff, 2011
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A New Game Begins
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Kaihan Krippendorff www.kaihan.net

Transcription

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