Military Presence and Economic Significance in

Transcription

Dr Sally Hunter, Policy and Research, Wiltshire Council.
[email protected]
This study would not have been possible without the help of the Headquarters 43
(Wessex) Brigade and Mr Bill Dowling in particular. The report author would also like
to thank Defence Estates, the Defence Analytical and Services Agency, the Career
Transition Partnership and the South West RDA.
Military Presence and Economic Significance in the South
West Region
The South West region is home to around 24% of the military personnel in the
UK, amounting to almost 39,000 individuals. Including the families of these
personnel gives an estimated total military-related population of 81,000
people, around 1.6% of the region’s total population. Over 17,000 MoD civil
service jobs are also based in the region1, taking the total direct militaryrelated employment to around 56,000. This amounts to around 2.5% of total
employment in the region2, without accounting for civilian contractors (who
provide the majority of services to the military bases) and employment in the
defence industry. Military-related employment and population therefore form
significant components of the region and the regional economy. This report
aims to improve understanding of the nature of this military presence, its
economic significance and the potential impact of changes.
Section 1 of the report examines national and estimated regional MoD
expenditure, as well as the scale and distribution of the military presence in
the South West. This section also briefly examines the scale of the defence
industry in the region. A number of major changes to the military presence in
the region will occur over the next few years and Section 2 examines the
economic implications of these changes at both local and regional level, with
the use of an economic modelling tool. Due to military planning and funding
horizons, short term plans (to around 2012) can be considered to be fairly
certain, while further into the future plans become more aspirational and
subject to change. Finally, Section 3 assesses the contribution of service
leavers to the civilian labour market throughout the region by estimating the
flows of personnel leaving the services and using survey data to assess what
proportion of these leavers may settle in the region. This section also
examines the civilian employment aspirations of the leavers in the context of
recent and future labour demands.
This research has been carried out as part of Wiltshire’s Military Civilian
Integration (MCI) Programme. The South West of England Regional
Development Agency (SWRDA) commissioned Wiltshire County Council
(Wiltshire Council from 1st April 2009), through the MCI Programme, to
investigate the economic impacts of defence spending in those areas with a
significant military presence. It is intended this research will be used to
strengthen the regional evidence base and inform local and regional policy, so
that the economic potential of the military presence in the South West region
is better understood and can be fully harnessed over the medium to longterm.
1
The Ministry of Defence Estate in the South West. A Briefing Note for the Government Office of the
South West. 2009.
2
Total employment in the region, including military personnel, is around 2.3 million
Executive Summary
National and Regional MoD Expenditure
MoD defence expenditure figures and spending plans indicate that the total
UK expenditure on defence will be around £36bn in 2009, increasing to
around £38bn in 2010. The estimated breakdown of this national expenditure
by function for 2009 is shown below:
•
•
•
•
•
Personnel - £14bn;
Operations and maintenance - £11.5bn;
Research and development - £3bn;
Procurement - £7bn;
Construction – £0.4bn.
Around 25% of this national expenditure is estimated to be allocated to the
South West region, suggesting MoD expenditure in the region of around £9bn
for 2009, with following estimated breakdown by function:
•
•
•
•
•
Personnel - £3.5bn;
Operations and maintenance - £3bn;
Research and development - £0.7bn;
Procurement – £1.8bn;
Construction – £0.1bn.
It is further estimated that, of this total £9bn regional expenditure, around
£5bn is associated with the military bases and other MoD sites in the region
and around £4bn is associated with the defence industry.
A number of major defence-related Public Private Partnership projects are
underway based either entirely or partly in the South West region. These
include some of largest defence Private Finance Initiative (PFI) contracts to
date, including Project Allenby/Connaught and the Future Strategic Air Tanker
programme.
Military Presence and Directly Supported Employment in the
South West Region
There are currently around 38,800 armed forces personnel stationed in the
South West region, being mostly navy and army personnel. The highest
numbers are stationed in Wiltshire followed by Plymouth, Devon, Cornwall
and Somerset.
The main MoD agency sites in the region are the head quarters of Defence
Equipment and Stores (DE&S) at Abbey Wood, South Gloucestershire and
Information Systems and Services (ISS) and Defence Science and
Technology Laboratory (Dstl) in Wiltshire.
The highest numbers of army personnel are stationed in Wiltshire, mainly
around the Salisbury Plain, with significant numbers also in Dorset and
I
Gloucestershire. The largest numbers of naval personnel are located in
Plymouth, which is the home to the largest naval base in Western Europe,
with significant numbers also at training establishments, naval air stations and
Royal Marines locations in Devon, Cornwall, Somerset and Poole. The
majority of RAF personnel in the region are based in Wiltshire at RAF
Lyneham, although this site is to close in 2012. The other main RAF locations
in the region (RAF Innsworth and St Mawgan) have seen a significant
reduction in personnel over the last year.
Estimates suggest the presence of around 42,000 military dependants
(spouses and children) in the region, which, combined with the total number of
military personnel gives an estimated “total presence” of around 81,000
people, around 1.6% of the total regional population. The majority of these
dependants are located in Wiltshire and Plymouth, followed by Devon,
Cornwall and Somerset.
The UK defence estate comprises over 240,000ha with over 4,000 sites,
including more than 45,000 buildings. Around one quarter of this estate,
including over 90 main establishments, is located in the South West region.
The majority of these sites are categorised by the MoD as either “core” or
“retained” and so have moderate to long term military futures.
37,000 direct full-time jobs in industry and commerce are estimated to be
supported by MoD expenditure in the South West. Combining this with the
total number of military personnel and defence civil servants in the region
gives a total direct employment supported by defence of around 93,000,
around 4% of overall employment in the region.
Economic Impacts of the Military Changes in the South West
Region
The military presence throughout the country is set to undergo a number of
changes in the period to 2030. The economic implications of these changes
within the South West region have been examined at local and regional level,
with the aid of an economic modelling tool.
Changes are expected in a number of the local authority areas of the region
including;
• An increase in the number of military personnel and their families in the
Salisbury Plain area of Wiltshire as this area is developed as one of the
country’s first Super Garrisons and the associated redevelopment of a
number of garrison sites;
• The closure of RAF Lyneham in North Wiltshire in 2012;
• The relocation of the army headquarters from Wilton and Upavon,
Wiltshire, to Hampshire in 2010, following their merger in 2008;
• The redevelopment of the Information Systems and Services facilities
at Corsham in North Wiltshire;
II
• An increase in the numbers of personnel and construction of a new
office building at Abbey Wood in South Gloucestershire;
• The movement of HQ Allied Rapid Reaction Corps to Gloucestershire
following the closure of RAF Innsworth in 2008 and its transfer to the
army as Imjin Barracks;
• The relocation of the Royal School of Signals from Blandford Camp in
Dorset to South Wales by 2012;
• A decrease in the number of naval personnel based in Plymouth
resulting from the decommissioning of the Trafalgar Class submarines,
and;
• The cessation of military flying operations at RAF St Mawgan in Cornwall and associated decrease in personnel. The economic impacts of the changes around the Salisbury Plain area, RAF
Lyneham, Wilton, Blandford Camp and the Plymouth Naval Base have been
investigated on the scale of defined local economic areas, centred on each of
the sites, as well as at the scale of the relevant local authority area.
Salisbury Plain Area
The local economic model for this area has been used to assess the potential
impacts of the planned increase in military employment in this area of around
3,300 personnel, the associated population increase and construction project
(part of the Project Allenby Connaught PFI).
The maximum projected impact is reached in 2012, with an increase of
£140m3 Gross Value Added (GVA), relative to base forecast, largely reflecting
the increase in military employment; an increase in full-time equivalent (FTE)
employment of around 5,000 jobs relative to the base forecast, of which
around 3,300 jobs are direct and 1,600 are indirect and; an increase in real
household disposable income of around £126m4. These impacts would
represent changes on the scale of around 1% of the total values of GVA etc
for the local economic area. The impact of the Project Allenby Connaught
construction project peaks in 2008, with an estimated 1,000 construction
related staff, and decreases to zero by 2016.
RAF Lyneham
The closure of RAF Lyneham would lead to a decrease in military and civil
service employment in the area of around 2,700 jobs by end 2012. The site is
being considered for a military re-use, which could see personnel numbers
return to a similar level than before the withdrawal of the RAF, although no
decision has yet been made. If no military future is found, the site could be
released and potentially used as a civilian employment site. Three different
scenarios have therefore been modelled, examining these different potential
situations.
In the event of the base closure with no re-use, GVA, FTE employment and
real household disposable income are projected to decrease relative to the
3
4
£2001m
£2001m
III
base forecast by around £90m, 3,400 jobs and around £86m respectively by
2015, -0.5% to -1% of the total values for the local economic area.
Should there be a military re-use of the base then these figures may return to
around pre-closure levels, although there is a good deal of uncertainty
regarding the scale of any potential future military presence.
If the site were to see a civilian re-use, this could potentially significantly offset
the impacts of the base closure, particularly on local GVA, and could possibly
support around 800 direct and 500 indirect jobs in the local economic area.
Wilton
The relocation of the army HQ’s from Wilton and Upavon in Wiltshire to
Hampshire will see a decrease in employment of around 340 military and
civilian defence jobs in the defined local economic area. It is expected that the
Wilton site will be released for civilian use following the withdrawal of the
military.
The reduction in military-related posts is expected to have a limited negative
economic impact on the scale of the economic area of around £9m GVA and
around 400 FTE jobs, of which only around 70 are indirect. If the Wilton site
were to be used for a civilian employment development, this could lead to
significant positive impacts, potentially generating between £20m and £110m
GVA and 500 and 2,600 FTE jobs.
Wiltshire Local Authority Area
The military changes at the Salisbury Plain, RAF Lyneham and Wilton in
Wiltshire outlined above have also been examined at county scale, along with
the construction of new facilities and a small increase in employment at
Corsham in North Wiltshire. Three scenarios have been examined with the
best case involving the employment re-use of both Lyneham and Wilton after
the military withdrawals, the intermediate case involving the re-use of
Lyneham only and the worst case assuming no employment re-use of either
site.
The combined maximum economic impact resulting from confirmed military
changes is reached in 2009, with an additional £114m GVA, 4,100 FTE jobs
and £87m real household disposable income compared to the base forecast,
around 1.5% to 2% of the total values for the county. This growing positive
impact is curtailed by the movement of the army HQ’s out of the county in
20105. By 2020, there is a large variability in outcomes between the best,
intermediate and worst case scenarios, as set out below:
•
•
•
5
Best case – GVA impact £220m; FTE impact 4,600 jobs
Intermediate case – GVA impact £67m; FTE impact 1,500 jobs
Worst case – GVA impact -£35m; FTE impact -1,800 jobs
This impact is much more significant for Wiltshire County compared to the local economic area
defined for Wilton as the HQ’s leave the county, but not the defined local economic area.
IV
Blandford Camp and Dorset Local Authority Area
The relocation of the Royal School of Signals away from Blandford Camp
would see military and defence civil service employment at the site drop to
around a third of the current level by 2012. However, a number of “backfill”
personnel are expected to move into the camp. The economic impacts of the
Royal School of Signals moving away, both with and without backfill units has
been examined, as well as a potential worst case scenario of the total closure
of the base.
The potential worst case scenario is projected to cause the loss of around
£74m GVA, 3,100 FTE jobs and £83m in real household disposable income
by 2015 compared to the base forecast, -0.5% to -1% of the total for the area.
Previous studies have suggested significantly higher impacts, which this
investigation suggests are overestimates.
Looking at the relocation of the Royal School of Signals specifically, if no
backfill units were to move into Blandford, the projected impacts are a loss of
around £50m GVA, 2,000 FTE jobs and £58m real disposable household
income by 2015 compared to the base forecast.
If around 800 “backfill” military personnel were to be moved into Blandford, the
projected long-term impact is still negative, but with a smaller decrease of
around £20m GVA, 900 FTE jobs and £23m real household disposable
income compared to the base forecast.
As the defined local economic area contains major employment centres that
lie outside of Dorset County, the scale of the projected impacts compared to
the base forecasts are around twice as great when looking at county level,
with a maximum impact of around -2% of the total for GVA in the worst case
scenario.
Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard
Employment levels at the Plymouth Naval Base are expected to decrease as
submarine crew gradually leave the area as the Trafalgar Class submarines
are decommissioned and around 300 civilian dockyard jobs are lost. It has
also been suggested in the press that elements of the surface fleet may leave
the city, which would lead to large reductions in naval employment in the area.
Two scenarios have therefore been modelled, the first including only known
reductions in employment and the second also assuming the loss of part of
the surface fleet.
Following the first scenario, GVA is projected to decline relative to the base
forecast by around £90m by 2020, with an associated decrease of around
2,000 FTE jobs and £54m real household disposable income. These impacts
represent a decline of around 1% compared to the base forecasts for the
area.
In the event of the frigates also leaving Plymouth, the projected impact on
local GVA is a decrease of around £220m compared to the base forecast by
2020, with an FTE employment impact of around 5,400 jobs and impact on
V
real household disposable income of around £145m. These are the largest
proportional impacts of any of the military changes studied, at almost -3% of
the total local GVA and FTE employment and almost -2% of real household
disposable income.
The defined local economic area around the naval base contains few major
employment centres outside of the City of Plymouth Unitary Authority Area.
The economic impacts are therefore focussed in this UAA, with the impacts of
the first scenario reaching almost -2% of the GVA and FTE employment totals
for the area and the potential impacts of the worst case scenario reaching
almost -5% of these totals.
Regional Economic Significance
The combined impacts of all planned and potential military changes in the
South West have also been examined at regional level. A best and worst case
scenario have been developed to allow for uncertainty in the nature and timing
of future changes.
In the short term, positive impacts are projected with increases in GVA of
£120m-£150m, FTE employment of around 6,000 jobs and real household
disposable income of £130-150m by 2010, relative to the base economic
forecast for the region. In the longer term, there is a large difference between
the outcomes of the potential best and worst case scenarios, as set out below:
•
•
Best case – GVA impact +£250m; FTE impact +8,000 jobs
Worst case – GVA impact -£200m; FTE impact -4,000 jobs
The scale of these impacts is around 0.3% of the regional total GVA forecast
for the best case scenario and around -0.2% of the total for the worst case
scenario.
Within this range, depending on decisions made relating to individual sites,
there are a number of possible scenarios with combined impacts that may be
significantly positive, significantly negative or almost zero at regional level.
It is estimated that the approximately 56,000 direct military and defence civil
service jobs at the military sites in the South West, together with the militaryrelated population, contribute around £2bn GVA to the regional economy, just
over 2% of the regional total, and support an additional 24,000 indirect jobs.
This does not include an assessment of the significance of the defence
industry in the region that is directly supported by MoD expenditure. A
preliminary analysis suggests that this may support almost 70,000 direct and
indirect jobs and contribute around £3bn GVA to the regional economy.
VI
Military Service Leavers in the South West Region
The scale of the military presence within the South West means that there is
likely to be a large and continuous stream of armed forces leavers within the
region. To date, however, there has been little understanding of the scale and
significance of this outflow.
This study estimates that the total number of service leavers per year in the
South West region is around 4,000. By far the largest numbers are focussed
in Wiltshire (around 1,600), followed by Plymouth (around 700), with around
200 to 400 in Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset.
The majority of these leavers are from junior ranks, with relatively few officers.
For officers, most leavers are between the age of 25 and 54, while for the
more junior ranks there is an approximately even split between those aged 16
to 24 and 25 to 54.
A survey of military personnel intending to leave the services has been carried
out for this study at the two Career Transition Partnership Regional
Resettlement Centres in the South West. This indicates that around 60% of
leavers currently serving in the region would consider settling somewhere in
the South West. Around 20% would consider settling in Wiltshire and just
over 10% in Plymouth and Devon, with 5% or less considering settling in the
other local authority areas of the region.
The largest proportion of those service leavers who would consider settling
somewhere in the South West, would choose to do so in the county where
they were last stationed. There are also significant proportions wishing to
settle in the surrounding counties, presumably largely reflecting personnel
who live off base in these areas while still serving. There is also a noticeable
draw toward the major cities of Swindon and Bristol.
Within these overall trends, there is significant variation by service and rank.
More than half of the army and navy officers surveyed said that they would
settle somewhere in the South West, with army officers mainly intending to
settle where they were last posted (Wiltshire and Dorset) but with more varied
locations indicated by navy officers. For the army junior ranks, over half of the
personnel surveyed intend to leave South West on entering civilian life,
compared to less than 40% of naval junior ranks. In contrast to the other
services, over 90% of RAF service leavers would consider settling somewhere
in South West on leaving the services, with the largest proportion considering
settling in Wiltshire.
Of the approximately 40% of survey respondents currently based in the region
who do not wish to settle here on leaving the services, the main reason given
for not wishing to stay was a desire to return to family home areas in other
parts of the country.
Scale of Addition to Labour Force
If around 60% of the estimated 4,000 annual service leavers were to settle in
the region, this would give around 2,400 service leavers settling in the South
VII
West each year, with the majority being in Wiltshire, Plymouth and Devon.
Across the region, this is equivalent to less than 1% of the total labour force,
but around 7% of the annual increase in the labour force and around 15% of
the annual net migration of working aged people into the South West from
other areas of the UK. These outflows into the civilian labour market therefore
appear to form a significant component of labour force growth that is unlikely
to be being captured by recorded statistics.
Civilian Employment Aspirations and Potential to Meet Labour Market
Demands
Service leavers in the South West region identified a broad range of
employment sectors that they wish to enter into on leaving the military,
reflecting the diverse skill sets of military personnel. The most desired areas
of employment are engineering/technical roles and the police/fire services,
followed by considerable interest in managerial and IT/communications
sectors, transport/logistics, the defence industry, security/guarding, the public
sector and construction. There is also a strong desire amongst service leavers
to start their own businesses.
There is evidence of considerable variation by service and rank. For example,
naval officers show a particular tendency toward managerial roles, while army
officers appear to have stronger interests in consultancy and the defence
industry. Army and navy junior ranks display mixed career aspirations while
the junior ranks within the RAF show a particularly strong inclination toward
engineering/technical roles.
The National Employer Skills Survey 2007 reports around 59,000 vacancies in
the South West region, of which around 35% were hard to fill – the highest
level for any region in the country. Comparison with the employment
aspirations of service leavers suggests that they may provide suitable
candidates for vacancies in most occupation groups, including a number of
candidates equivalent to around 6% of the hard to fill vacancies for
management roles and around 2% for associate professional roles. Service
leavers may also contribute significant numbers to niche sectors, for example
as divers and remote underwater vehicle operators.
A long-term economic forecast for the region suggests that, of the range of
employment sectors preferred by service leavers, some, such as the
engineering/technical sector, may decline somewhat while others, such as
managerial and protective services occupations may see significant growth.
Over the next few years, the numbers of service leavers in the South West is
expected to increase, reflecting changes in the numbers of personnel
stationed in the region. Furthermore, the policy of the army to increase
stability for personnel may increase the likelihood of them settling in the region
in future.
In the long-term, with the issues of the ageing population and labour supply
problems, this internal labour supply reservoir could be of particular benefit to
the region.
VIII
Contents
1. Defence Spending and the Military Presence in the South West Region ......................................................... 1
1.1. Total UK defence expenditure and breakdown by function ............1
1.1.1 Total UK defence expenditure .........................................................1
1.1.2. UK defence expenditure by function ...............................................2
1.2. MoD expenditure in the South West ..................................................5
1.2.1 Total MoD expenditure in the South West and breakdown by function .....................................................................................................5
1.2.2 Expenditure related to military bases and the defence industry.......6
1.2.3 Public Private Partnerships..............................................................7
1.3. Military presence in the South West region ......................................9
1.3.1 Military personnel in the South West region by service and local authority area............................................................................................9
1.3.2 Estimated numbers of military dependants in the South West.......13
1.3.3 MoD land and buildings in the South West region .........................14
1.4. The defence industry and total defence employment in the South West region...............................................................................................16
1.5. South West region in the UK context ..............................................18
2. Economic impacts of the military changes in the South West region ........................................................ 21
2.1. Background to military changes ......................................................21
2.2. Planned changes to the military presence in the South West.......22
2.2.1 Wiltshire .........................................................................................22
2.2.2 Bristol/Bath area ............................................................................22
2.2.3 Gloucestershire..............................................................................23
2.2.4 Dorset ............................................................................................23
2.2.5 Devon and Plymouth......................................................................23
2.2.6 Cornwall.........................................................................................24
2.3 Projected economic impacts.............................................................25
2.3.1. Areas studied................................................................................25
2.3.2. Method and data availability .........................................................26
2.3.3. Projected economic impacts for local economic areas and Local Authority areas........................................................................................27
2.3.3.i The Salisbury Plain Area ......................................................27
2.3.3.ii RAF Lyneham ......................................................................37
2.3.3.iii Wilton ..................................................................................44
2.3.3.iv Wiltshire Local Authority Area .............................................48
2.3.3.v Blandford Camp and Dorset Local Authority Area ...............51
2.3.3.vi Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard...................................58
2.3.4. Regional economic significance....................................................66
2.3.4.i Combined impacts of the planned and potential military changes in the South West region...................................................66
2.3.4. ii Overall economic significance of the military presence in the region...............................................................................................69
2.4. Summary and Significance of Findings ..........................................70
3. Military Service Leavers in the South West Region
........................................................................................ 72
3.1. Introduction .......................................................................................72
3.2 Service leaver estimates....................................................................73
3.2.1. Total service leavers by local authority area .................................73
3.2.2. Service leavers by rank and age...................................................74
3.3. Desired destinations of service leavers ..........................................76
3.3.1. Survey of service leavers in the South West.................................76
3.3.2. Areas service leavers wish to settle ..............................................77
3.3.3. Variation in areas service leavers wish to settle by service and rank
................................................................................................................79
3.3.4. Reasons for not wishing to settle in the region .............................82
3.3.5. Scale of addition to labour force ...................................................83
3.4. Civilian employment aspirations and potential to meet labour market demands.......................................................................................86
3.4.1. Employment aspirations of service leavers...................................86
3.4.2. Variation in employment aspirations by service and rank .............87
3.4.3. Employment demand ....................................................................89
3.4.4. Potential future employment demand ...........................................92
3.5. Significance of Findings ...................................................................95
4. Summary and Conclusion........................................ 96
Appendix A – Adjustments to Model Default Settings
........................................................................................ 97
Appendix B – Model Inputs .......................................... 98
Appendix C – Modelling Results for Other Sites ..... 101
Appendix D – Skills and Experience of Service
Leavers......................................................................... 102
1. Defence Spending and the Military Presence in the
South West Region
1.1. Total UK defence expenditure and breakdown by function
1.1.1 Total UK defence expenditure
The total UK MoD defence budgets and expenditure from 2000 to 2010 are shown
in Table 1.1. The figures for total defence expenditure up to 2007 are official MoD
estimates of actual spending in cash or near cash terms. Expenditure figures from
2008 are official MoD spending plans for 2008-2010, plus a provisional estimate of
£1.1bn per annum as an indication of the potential contingency spend (to meet
additional costs of military operations in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere). The total
budget for 2009 is around £35bn and the estimated total expenditure is around
£36bn.
UK defence budget 2000-2010 including estimated contingency spending
£m
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Budget
23,170
23,888
24,314
26,171
26,590
27,693
28,794
30,082
34,057
35,365
36,890
At constant
2004 prices
25,852
25,972
25,569
26,775
26,590
26,917
27,272
27,814
28,231
28,654
29,084
Real change
(%)
3.3
0.5
- 1.6
4.7
-0.7
1.2
1.3
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.5
2006 budget
supplement
Estimated
forward
supplement
Contingency
supplement
Total
defence
expenditure
(£m)
100
100
382
551
1,913
1,748
1,112
1,839
1,796
1,780
1,100
1,100
1,100
23,552
24,389
26,295
27,620
27,702
30,421
31,454
32,579
35,157
36,465
37,990
Table 1.1. UK defence budgets and expenditure from 2000 to 20106.
The 2007 Comprehensive Spending Review increases the planned spending on
defence by an average of 1.5% a year in real terms over the period 2008-2010, with
the total defence budget rising from £30.1bn in 2007 to £36.9bn by 2010. The total
defence expenditure by 2010 is estimated to reach around £38bn, taking into
account potential contingency spending. The change in MoD defence spending from
2000 to 2010 is shown in Figure 1.1.
6
From R & F International Defence and Security Consultants
1
Total UK defence expenditure
40,000
Expenditure
(Current
Prices)
35,000
30,000
£m
25,000
Budget
(Current
Prices)
20,000
15,000
Budget
(2004
Constant
Prices)
10,000
5,000
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Figure 1.1. Total UK actual and projected defence expenditure from 2000 to 2010.
1.1.2. UK defence expenditure by function
The total UK defence expenditure estimated to be allocated to personnel, operations
and maintenance, research and development, procurement and construction is
shown in Table 1.2 and Figure 1.2.
Personnel costs include both military and civilian personnel in MoD employment,
with an estimated total expenditure of around £14bn in 2009. The figures include the
direct payments made to personnel, as well as other personnel compensation
expenditures made by the employer such as taxes, pension fees and other
contributions. The MoD budget does not fund pensions to retired military and civilian
personnel, as the MoD has operated a superannuation pension scheme since the
end of national service.
Expenditure on operations and maintenance includes the operating costs of the
armed forces, including accommodation and subsistence, training, transport, and
materials for current use – the largest requirement being fuel. This area also
includes contracted-out services which span the range of civilian services provided
under direct or Private Finance Initiative (PFI) transactions, as well as equipment
maintenance, repair and overhaul costs contracted out to the private sector and,
personnel costs apart, performed by the defence agencies. The total estimated
expenditure on this function in 2009 is around £11.5bn.
The MoD identifies Research & Development (R&D) funding as a separate category
of military expenditure up to the point at which new equipment can be put into
service, regardless of whether new equipment is actually procured. There are two
sub-categories of R&D spending: basic and applied research and; development,
testing and evaluation which together have an estimated total expenditure of around
£3bn for 2009.
Procurement covers national equipment spending, as well as common (alliance)
equipment programmes. These also cover financial contributions to multilateral
military organisations for equipment, host nation support in cash and kind, and
2
payments for equipment made to other countries under bilateral arrangements. The
total estimated expenditure on this function in 2009 is around £7bn.
Since the advent of multiple PFI transactions dating from the mid-1990s, some
components of procurement spending have been on the decline. This is because
under PFI arrangements, ownership of the underlying equipment asset may belong
to the PFI contractor(s) and rented by the MoD under long-term lease
arrangements. Such arrangements are accounted under the operations and
maintenance rather than the procurement function. These transactions relate mainly
to relatively low-value and non-defence specific equipment assets – including white
vehicle fleets (civilian vehicles used by the MoD and armed forces). Overall, MoD
procurement spending on high-value assets (specialised military equipment) has
been increasing significantly in recent years.
Official construction spending has also been on the decline since the advent of
multiple PFI transactions for the reasons outlined above, and is now estimated at
around £400m. Construction funding includes communications and related
structures and facilities.
UK MoD defence spending estimates by function 2000-2010
£m
Function
Personnel
Operations &
Maintenance
Research &
Development
Procurement
Construction
2000
8,768
2001
9,636
2002
10,100
2003
10,500
2004
10,567
2005
11,600
2006
12,813
2007
13,200
2008
13,915
2009
14,386
2010
14,878
6,500
7,000
7,900
8,500
8,253
9,100
10,058
10,396
10,932
11,588
12,283
2,321
2,117
2,790
2,700
2,744
2,645
2,594
2,732
2,900
3,000
3,100
5,400
563
5,128
508
5,027
478
5,700
220
5,728
410
6,364
712
5,600
389
5,833
418
7,000
410
7,091
400
7,329
400
Total
23,552
24,389
26,295
27,620
27,702
30,421
31,454
32,579
35,157
36,465
37,990
Note: R&D and Procurement figures include equipment purchased under Urgent Operational Requirements (UOR).
Table 1.2. UK defence spending by function7.
7
3
Estimated UK Defence Spend by Function, £m (2009)
400
7,100
Personnel
14,400
Operations &
Maintenance
Research &
Development
3,000
Procurement
Construction
11,600
Figure 1.2. Estimated UK defence spending by function in 2009.
4
1.2. MoD expenditure in the South West
1.2.1 Total MoD expenditure in the South West and breakdown by
function
In order to estimate the MoD spending allocation in the South West region, MoD
figures for regional military and civilian manpower were used, as well as MoD
estimates of defence industry employment generated by MoD equipment spending.
Approximately 25% of the national MoD spend is estimated to be allocated to the
South West region, amounting to around £9bn in 2009 (Table 1.3). This would
suggest around £3.5bn expenditure on personnel (of which the majority is wages of
the military and civilian personnel), around £3bn expenditure on operations and
maintenance, £1.8bn on procurement, around £800m on research and development
and £100m on construction. PFI arrangements are accounted for under the
operations and maintenance function. As the PFI arrangements in the South West
are a combination of construction and industrial/research and development projects
(see Section 1.2.3) a proportion of the operations and maintenance expenditure will
be associated with these sectors.
UK MoD defence spending estimates by function 2000-2010 allocated to the SW region
£m
Function
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Personnel
Operations &
Maintenance
Research &
Development
Procurement
1,971
2,082
2,206
1,882
1,621
2,771
3,122
3,193
3,366
3,480
3,599
1,444
1,556
1,756
2,125
2,140
2,405
2,658
2,724
2,865
3,037
3,219
516
470
620
675
711
699
686
716
760
786
812
1,200
1,140
1,117
1,425
1,485
1,682
1,480
1,529
1,834
1,858
1,921
Construction
125
113
106
55
106
188
103
110
108
105
105
Total
5,257
5,360
5,805
6,162
6,063
7,745
8,048
8,272
8,933
9,266
9,656
Note: R&D and Procurement figures include equipment purchased under Urgent Operational Requirements (UOR).
8
Table 1.3. Estimated defence expenditure in the South West region by function .
8
5
Estimated SW Defence Spend by Function, £m (2009)
100
1,900
Personnel
Operations &
Maintenance
3,500
Research &
Development
800
Procurement
Construction
3,000
Figure 1.3. Estimated defence expenditure in the South West by function in 2009.
1.2.2 Expenditure related to military bases and the defence industry
MoD expenditure in the South West region can also be separated into estimates of
expenditure associated with military bases and administrative locations and
expenditure associated with the defence industry (Table 1.4).
Estimates for spending associated with military bases and MoD administrative sites
in the South West region mainly represent personnel and operations and
maintenance spending, inclusive of PFI transactions, and stand at around £5bn for
2009. Estimates of industry-related spending for the South West region represent
the composite equipment spend covering research and development, procurement
and repair, maintenance and overhaul, as well as MoD-funded construction. This
spending is estimated at around £4bn for 2009.
MoD defence spending estimates by location 2000-2010 allocated to the SW region
£m
Location
Base-related
Industry-related
2000
2,893
2,374
2001
3,071
2,260
2002
3,247
2,540
2003
2,724
3,106
2004
2,331
3,242
2005
4,099
3,505
2006
4,648
3,271
2007
4,740
3,403
2008
4,995
3,803
2009
5,219
3,902
2010
5,458
4,043
Total
5,267 5,332 5,787
Note: Estimates exclude Defence Exports
5,830
5,573
7,604
7,919
8,143
8,797
9,121
9,501
Table 1.4. Estimates of base related and industry related MoD expenditure in the South
West9.
9
6
1.2.3 Public Private Partnerships
Public Private Partnerships (PPP’s) is an umbrella term covering the Private
Finance Initiative (PFI), Partnering Arrangements, outsourcing, the Wider Markets
Initiative and the Defence Estates Prime Contracting Programme. PPP’s differ from
other procurement strategies in that the private sector funds the capital assets, with
the public sector being the major purchaser of services10. A growing number of MoD
projects are now being carried out under PPP arrangements.
Some of largest defence PFI contracts to date involve a significant proportion of
work in the South West region. For example, the newly finalised Future Strategic Air
Tanker PFI is the world’s largest ever defence PFI and will involve wing manufacture
in Filton (where Airbus employs more than 2,000 engineers11), provision of refuelling
equipment from Cobham at Wimborne, Dorset, aircraft conversion by Cobham at
Bournemouth airport and Rolls-Royce project management at Bristol12.
Major MoD PPP’s in the South West region are outlined in Table 1.5.
10
http://www.ams.mod.uk/content/docs/quality/content/contractingforqual/ppppfi.htm and UK Defence
Statistics 2007
11
http://www.airbus.com/en/worldwide/airbus_in_uk.html
12
http://www.airtanker.co.uk/press%20releases/Contract-closure-press-release-27308.doc
7
Project
Project Allenby/
Connaught
Corsham
Development Project
Abbey Wood
Neighbourhood 5
Bristol, Bath and
Portsmouth Family
Quarters
Devonport Support
Services (ARMADA)
Skynet 5
Future Strategic Air
Tanker
Description
Provision of modern, serviced living and working accommodation for 18,000 military
and civilian personnel in the Salisbury Plain and Aldershot Garrisons. Over two thirds
of the new builds associated with the project are located in Wiltshire13.
This project will relocate all Defence Equipment and Support Information Systems and
Services personnel and business partners to a single communications centre. It will
provide 7 new serviced buildings and the management of the Corsham underground
area.
Construction of a new office building by Debut, the MoD’s Regional Prime Contractor
in the South West, to allow the increase in personnel based at Abbey Wood15.
Provision of serviced accommodation for service families at Emerson’s Green,
Seafield Park, Long Ashton and Stoke Park.
Creation, operation and maintenance of new Single Living Accommodation at the
Fleet Accommodation Centre in Devonport, Plymouth.
Provision of satellite communication services to the MoD. The PFI is a partnership
between Paradigm Secure Communications and EADS Astrium, with work carried out
at a number of locations including communications bases at Corsham and Colerne in
Wiltshire16.
Provision of a fleet of modified Airbus A330 aircraft to undertake air-to-air refuelling
and air passenger transport tasks. The aircraft are expected to enter service around
2011 and serve for 30 years. Contract includes associated training, infrastructure and
through-life maintenance support. Principal work location in the SW are; Filton,
Wimborne, Bournemouth and Bristol17.
Accommodation for 88 aircrew. Initial operation 1999.
Yeovilton Family
Quarters
RAF Lyneham
Sewerage Treatment
Tidworth Water and
Sewerage
Table 1.5. Major MoD PPP projects in the South West region19
13
Finance
Operation from 2006 with a 35 year service
contract. Approved cost £8,544m and
estimated cost in 2006/2007 £132m14.
Capital value £161.7m, with operation from
2009 and a contract term of 25 years.
£25m construction cost with commencement
in 2009.
Operation from 2003 for 25 years. Capital
value £78m. £5-10m payments made in
2006/07.
Capital value £44.5m. Operation from 1
March 2008 with a 24 year contract term.
£10-25m payments made in 2006/07.
Capital value £1,079m. Operation from
2005, with an 18 year contract
£13bn 27 year contract. AirTanker’s
shareholders are Cobham, EADS, RollsRoyce, Thales UK and VT Group18.
<£5m payments in 2006-2007
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/FactSheets/ProjectFactsheets/ProjectAllenbyconnaughtQuickFacts.htm
14
From Governments Expenditure Plans 2006/07 to 2007/08
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/EstateAndEnvironment/NewAbbeyWoodOfficeSpaceOnTheWay.htm
16
http://www.astrium.eads.net/press-center/archives/2005/paradigm-delivers-a-space-revolution
17
http://www.airtanker.co.uk/press%20releases/Contract-closure-press-release-27308.doc
18
http://nds.coi.gov.uk/Content/Detail.asp?ReleaseID=363320&NewsAreaID=2
19
http://www.partnershipsuk.org.uk
15
8
1.3. Military presence in the South West region
1.3.1 Military personnel in the South West region by service and local
authority area
There are currently around 38,800 armed forces personnel stationed in the South
West region, with the majority being naval and army personnel (Table 1.6).
Armed Forces personnel in the SW region
Officers Other Ranks
Total
Naval 3,200
15,200
18,400
Army
2,700
13,900
16,600
RAF
1,200
2,500
3,700
Total 7,100
31,700
38,800
Table 1.6. Armed Forces personnel in the South West region as of October 200820
The highest numbers of military personnel are stationed in Wiltshire, followed by
Plymouth, Devon, Cornwall, Somerset, Dorset, Gloucestershire and South
Gloucestershire (Table 1.7 and Figure 1.4). The distribution varies significantly by
service, as outlined below.
Armed Forces Personnel in the SW region by service and rank
All Services
Naval Service
Army
County or
Unitary
Authority
Bath and NE
Somerset
Bournemouth
City of Bristol
North
Somerset
Plymouth
Poole
South Glouc.
Swindon
Torbay
Cornwall
Devon
Dorset
Glouc.
Somerset
Wiltshire
Air Force
Total
Officer
Ranks
Total
Officer
Ranks
Total
Officer
Ranks
Total
Officer
Ranks
230
140
90
90
40
50
90
60
30
50
40
10
10
70
20
10
50
20
10
20
30
-
30
10
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7,360
840
1,010
20
3,610
4,220
2,340
1,420
2,980
14,670
920
90
690
570
770
290
230
610
2,790
6,440
750
320
20
3,040
3,450
2,060
1,190
2,370
11,880
6,890
740
520
20
3,300
3,620
170
90
2,800
170
850
70
350
540
700
20
10
520
100
6,040
670
170
20
2,760
2,930
150
80
2,290
70
450
90
220
10
560
2,130
1,120
80
11,850
60
20
130
60
250
110
40
2,010
390
70
90
10
510
1,880
1,010
40
9,850
20
10
270
300
40
40
210
90
2,650
10
210
40
20
20
110
60
680
10
10
60
270
20
20
100
40
1,970
Table 1.7. Armed Forces personnel in the local authority areas of the South West by service
and rank21.
There are a number of MoD agency sites throughout the region, particularly in the
east, with the main locations being Abbey Wood in South Gloucestershire, Ensleigh
in Bath and Corsham in Wiltshire (Figure 1.4). Abbey Wood is the headquarters of
Defence Equipment and Support (DE&S), which currently employs around 29,000
civilian and military personnel at sites throughout the UK and abroad, and intends to
20
21
DASA TSP10 1st October 2008
ibid
9
become increasing concentrated in the Bristol/Bath area22. Information Systems and
Services (ISS - formerly the Defence Communications and Services agency) has its
headquarters in Corsham, Wiltshire, with around 2,000 staff. Wiltshire is also home
to Porton Down, one of the key sites for the Defence Science and Technology
Laboratory (Dstl). The Army Base Repair Organisation (ABRO) has two major sites
in the region at Warminster and Bovington23.
All Military Personnel
0 - 250
251 - 1500
1501 - 4500
Gloucestershire
4501 - 7500
7501 - 15000
Military locations
Bristol
North
Somerset
Army
Navy
South
Glouc.
DE&S
Bath
& NES
RAF
Tri-service
Swindon
ISS
Wiltshire
MoD
Dstl
Somerset
Devon
Dorset
Bournemouth
Poole
Cornwall
Torbay
Plymouth
This map is based upon Ordnance Survey material with the permission of Ordnance Survey on behalf of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationary Office.
© Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Wiltshire County Council. 100023455. 2007
Figure 1.4. All military personnel and all main military bases in the South West. Significant
MoD agency locations are also indicated.
The highest numbers of army personnel are located in Wiltshire (Figure 1.5), with
the main sites within the county being the Tidworth, Bulford and Larkhill garrisons
around the Salisbury Plain, with other significant locations in Warminster, Corsham,
Colerne, Wilton (formerly HQ Land Command, now part of HQ Land Forces) and
Upavon (formerly HQ Adjutant General, now part of HQ Land Forces). Other
significant army locations in the South West region are Blandford Camp (including
the Royal School of Signals), Bovington Camp and Lulworth Camp in Dorset and
Beachley Barracks and the Duke of Gloucester Barracks in Gloucestershire. A
number of changes to this presence are both underway and expected, as discussed
as Section 2 of this report, including the recent transfer of RAF Innsworth in
Gloucestershire to the army under the new name of Imjin Barracks (Figure 1.5).
Overall, the numbers of army personnel in the South West region are expected to
increase in the coming years.
22
23
DE&S News April 2007
Abro merged with DARA in April 2008 to form the Defence Support Group
10
Army Personnel
0 - 250
251 - 600
601 - 1500
Imjin
Duke of Gloucester
Barracks Barracks
1501 - 2500
2501 - 12000
Beachley
Barracks
Military locations
Army
Tri-service
Corsham/
Colerne
Upavon
Salisbury
Plain
Garrisons
Wilton
Okehampton
Training Area
Blandford
Camp
Bovington and
Lulworth Camps
Figure 1.5. Distribution of army personnel and the main army bases in the South West.
The greatest numbers of naval personnel are located in Plymouth (Figure 1.6). The
Plymouth Naval Base is the largest naval base in Western Europe24 and is the
location of around 2,500 land-based personnel and the home port of around 4,900
ships’ and submarine crew, with a further thousand personnel based just across the
county boundary with Cornwall in Torpoint. However, the future of the naval base
has been brought into question, with suggestions in the press that it may close
within five years25. There are also two large naval air stations in the South West
(RNAS Yeovilton in Somerset and RNAS Culdrose in Cornwall) and four major
Royal Marines locations at Lympstone (home of the Commando Training Centre),
Poole, Chivenor and Norton Manor Camp, Taunton. Royal Naval officer training is
carried out at the Britannia Royal Naval College at Dartmouth in Devon.
24
25
http://www.armedforces.co.uk/navy/listings/l0009.html
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article3423421.ece
11
Navy Personnel
0 - 200
201 - 1000
1001 - 4000
4001 - 6900
Military locations
Navy
Tri-service
Chivenor
Norton Manor
Camp
RNAS
Yeovilton
Royal Marines
Lympstone
Plymouth
Naval Base
RNAS
Culdrose
Britannia Royal
Naval College
Figure 1.6. Distribution of naval personnel and the main naval bases in the South West.
The majority of RAF personnel in the South West are based in Wiltshire, which is
the home to the largest RAF base in the region – RAF Lyneham (Figure 1.7). This
base is set to close in 2012, with the personnel and Hercules fleet moving to RAF
Brize Norton in Oxfordshire. Wiltshire is also home to the Boscombe Down airfield.
The only other significant RAF locations in the South West have seen a significant
reduction in personnel over the last year. RAF Innsworth in Gloucestershire closed
spring 2008 and RAF St Mawgan in Cornwall has seen a significant reduction in
personnel and the cessation of military flying operations.
12
RAF Personnel
0 - 100
101 - 300
301 - 2650
Military locations
RAF
Tri-service
RAF
Lyneham
Boscombe
Down
RAF St Mawgan
Figure 1.7. Distribution of RAF personnel and the main RAF bases in the South West.
1.3.2 Estimated numbers of military dependants in the South West
An estimate of the number of military dependants (partners and dependant children)
in each local authority area can be made based on data available in Wiltshire26. This
suggests the presence of around 42,000 military dependants in the South West
region, giving a total military-related presence of around 81,000, or around 1.6% of
the total population of the region. This estimate is broken down by local authority
area in Table 1.8. There can be little doubt that the majority of dependants are
located in Wiltshire, followed by Plymouth and then possibly with similar numbers in
Devon, Cornwall and Somerset.
26
The dependants’ estimates have been derived by applying average proportions for military personnel in
barracks, service family accommodation and privately arranged accommodation in Wiltshire to the DASA
personnel totals for each authority area. All personnel in service family accommodation are assumed to be
married and it has been assumed that 80% of those personnel in privately accommodation live with partners. A
ratio of 1.27 children per spouse has then been applied, based on information for army units in the Tidworth
area.
13
County or Unitary
Total Armed Forces
Estimated number of
“Total
Authority
personnel
dependants
Presence”
Bath and NE Somerset 230
250
480
Bournemouth
10
10
20
City of Bristol
70
80
150
North Somerset
Plymouth
7,360
8,000
15,400
Poole
840
900
1,800
South Gloucestershire 1,010
1,100
2,100
Swindon
20
20
40
Torbay
Cornwall
3,610
3,900
7,500
Devon
4,220
4,600
8,800
Dorset
2,340
2,600
4,900
Gloucestershire
1,420
1,600
3,000
Somerset
2,980
3,200
6,200
Wiltshire
14,670
15,900
30,700
SW Total
38,800
42,200
81,000
Table 1.8. Armed forces personnel and estimated number of dependants in the counties
and unitary authorities of the South West region in 2008.
1.3.3 MoD land and buildings in the South West region
The MoD is one of the largest landowners in the UK and currently spends over £1bn
per annum on its estate. The defence estate comprises some 240,000 hectares in
the UK and over 4,000 sites (including built sites - barracks, naval bases, depots,
aircraft hangars, etc. and rural areas). The built estate covers around 80,000 ha,
including more than 45,000 buildings (excluding housing), and it is on this that most
expenditure is concentrated. The remaining 160,000 hectares is relatively
undeveloped rural land, which includes 21 major armed forces training areas and 39
minor training areas27.
The MoD has around one quarter of its estate and over 90 main establishments in
the South West region28. These sites are categorised as core, retained or disposal.
Core sites have a long term future and are the main focus for estates investment.
Retained sites have a moderate term future (commonly 10 years or more) and may
become either core or disposal in the longer term. Sites categorised as disposal are
surplus to military requirements and are to be disposed of on a time frame of around
3 to 10 years. The majority of defence sites in the South West region are either
categorised as core or retained, with only five currently identified for disposal (Figure
1.8). The main core locations in region are the Salisbury Plain area, the Bristol/Bath
area, centred on Abbey Wood and the Dorset and Devon area, with a particular
focus on naval activities in Plymouth29.
27
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/AboutDefence/WhatWeDo/TheDefenceEstate.htm
The Ministry of Defence. Estate in the South West. A Briefing Note for the Government Office of the South
West. 2009.
29
Defence Estates Development Plan 2030 p.3 & Annex A
28
14
MoD Sites
Core
)
"
Retained
#
Dispose
)
"
Abbey
Wood
""
)
)
)
"
)
"
)
"
)
"
#
)
"
)
"
)
"
Salisbury "
)
)
Plain #"
#
)
"
#
"
)
)
"
)
"
Plymouth
)
"
#
Figure 1.8. MoD sites in the South West region, categorised as core, retained and disposal.
The main core locations are also indicated.
In 2005, the value of land and buildings in the South West owned by the MoD and
associated agencies and Trading Funds (UK Hydrological Office, Meteorological
Office, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory and Army Base Repair
Organisation) was almost £2.5bn. The majority of these assets are located in
Wiltshire, Plymouth, Dorset and South Gloucestershire (Table 1.9). The highest
value individual assets are Abbey Wood, South Gloucestershire (£184m), the
Salisbury Plain Training Area in Wiltshire (£167m), Devonport Dockyard, Plymouth
(£166), the Royal Naval Air Station at Yeovilton, Somerset (£130m), the Royal Naval
Air Station at Culdrose, Cornwall (£96m) and Blandford Camp Royal School of
Signals in Dorset (£95m).
County or Unitary Authority
Value of Land and Buildings (£m)
Bath and NE Somerset
35
Plymouth
364
Poole
60
South Gloucestershire
204
Swindon
5
Cornwall
166
Devon
196
Dorset
253
Gloucestershire
110
Somerset
200
Wiltshire
900
Total
2,493
Table 1.9. Value of MoD land and building in the South West (From National Asset Register
2005).
15
1.4. The defence industry and total defence employment in the
South West region
The UK defence industrial base accounts for nearly 20% of the UK GDP and over
10% of manufacturing output. It directly and indirectly employs over 340,000 people
in over 11,000 companies, with total direct employment estimated at around
160,000 (down from around 400,000 in the early 1990’s)30.
The UK defence industry provides around 75% by value of the MoD’s equipment
requirements. In recent years it has supplied £9-10bn worth of goods and services
to the UK armed forces annually and has attracted a further £3-5bn worth of
business from overseas31. The defence industrial cluster in the South West is
second only to the South East, with more than 100 medium to large-scale defence
related manufacturing and consultancy companies located in the region (Figure 1.9),
mainly focused toward the east.
37,000 direct full time jobs in industry or commerce are estimated to be supported
by MoD expenditure in the South West region32. The total direct and directly
supported defence-related employment in the South West is around 93,000 jobs,
with some 38,800 service personnel, around 17,000 directly employed civilian
personnel33 and 37,000 jobs directly supported in industry and commerce. The total
employment in the South West is around 2,300,000. Defence related employment
therefore amounts to around 4% of the total employment in the region.
30
UK Defence, european-defence.co.uk, 2007
www.armedforces.co.uk
32
UK Defence Statistics 2007
33
West. 2009.
31
16
Figure 1.9. Defence-related companies in the South West34.
34
Compiled from UK Defence (european-defence.co.uk, 2007); The Defence Suppliers Directory
(http://www.armedforces.co.uk); The Defence Manufacturers Association (http://www.the-dma.org.uk)
17
1.5. South West region in the UK context
As the following diagrams show, the South West region occupies almost 10% of the
UK land area and is home to around 8% of the population and 8% of total UK
employment35 (Figure 1.10). However, on almost any measure, the armed forces
have an inordinate presence and importance within the region. 24% of UK-based
armed forces are stationed in the South West region, including 21% of UK-based
army, 50% of UK-based navy and 9% of UK-based air force36 (Figure 1.11).
The region contains around 17% by value of the MoD’s land and buildings (Figure
1.12). It is estimated that around 25% of the total MoD expenditure is allocated to
the region, amounting to around £9bn in 2009. The region also contains around 26%
of the direct employment supported by the MoD in the UK, i.e. military personnel
and civilian MoD personnel based in the UK and directly supported jobs in UK
industry and commerce.
Population (2006)
5,122,400, 8%
Employment (2006)
2,230,030, 8%
Land Area
23,837, 10%
SW
Rest of UK
55,464,600, 92%
24,844,958, 92%
220,983, 90%
Figure 1.10. Population, employment and land area of the South West region.
35
36
Including military employment, but not agriculture
DASA TSP10 October 2008
18
Armed Forces Personnel
38,780, 24%
SW
Rest of UK
119,850, 76%
Army
16,650, 21%
SW
Rest of UK
63,830, 79%
Navy
18,450, 50%
18,780, 50%
SW
Rest of UK
Air Force
3,690, 9%
SW
Rest of UK
37,230, 91%
Figure 1.11. Proportion of the UK-based armed forces in the South West region
19
Value of Land and Buildings (£m)
2,514, 17%
SW
Rest of UK
12,625, 83%
Estimated MoD Spend (£m)
9,260, 25%
SW
Rest of UK
27,200, 75%
Direct Defence-related Employment
93,000, 23%
SW
Rest of UK
306,780, 77%
Figure 1.12. Estimated MoD expenditure in the South West region as a proportion of the
total MoD expenditure in the UK37, value of land and buildings in the South West owned by
the MoD and associated trading funds38 and direct employment supported by the MoD in the
South West region39
37
Summarised from the National Asset Register (2005)
39
Military personnel, civilian MoD employees and jobs in industry and commerce estimated to be directly
supported by MoD expenditure
38
20
2. Economic impacts of the military changes in the South
West region
2.1. Background to military changes
The military presence throughout the UK is set to undergo a number of changes in
the period to 203040. Among the key drivers of these changes is the desire to
“rebalance” the MoD footprint in the country, which is currently heavily biased
toward the south (Table 2.1). There is also a need to accommodate troops being
repatriated from Germany as parts of the German defence estate are closed and to
improve affordability, with the aim to concentrate personnel on fewer, larger sites41
in the UK and abroad that can better deliver military capability42.
Region
Population
(millions)
60.2
2.9
5
1.7
2.5
6.8
5
Service
personnel
167,330
3,260
13,520
6,800
1,510
2,040
13,040
MoD
civilian
72,510
1,580
6,360
3,270
530
2,770
3,700
MoD Total
% of
Population
0.4
0.17
0.4
0.6
0.08
0.07
0.34
UK
239,840
Wales
4,840
Scotland
19,880
Northern Ireland
10,070
North East
2,040
North West
4,810
Yorks &
16,740
Humberside
East Midlands
4.3
9,250
2,440
11,690
0.27
West Midlands
5.3
6,150
4,730
10,880
0.21
Eastern
5.5
18,750
7,010
25,760
0.47
London
7.4
6,320
6,380
12,700
0.17
South East
8.1
44,770
14,310
59,080
0.73
South West
5.1
40,310
19,530
59,840
1.17
43
Table 2.1 MoD presence throughout the UK as at 2006 . Regions with a proportional MoD
presence higher than the national average are highlighted.
This section will examine the economic implications of these changes at both local
and regional level with the use of an economic modelling tool. Due to military
planning and funding horizons, short term plans (to around 2012) can be considered
to be fairly certain, while further into the future plans become more aspirational and
subject to change.
40
Defence Estates Development Plan 2030 http://www.defence-estates.mod.uk/publications/dedp08.php
Base Ports, Super Garrisons and Main Operating Bases
42
Defence Estates Development Plan 2030, p.12-14
43
From the Defence Estates Development Plan 2030
41
21
2.2. Planned changes to the military presence in the South West
The planned changes to the military presence and defence estate in the region are
set out below44.
2.2.1 Wiltshire
A number of major changes are planned for both the army and RAF presence in
Wiltshire over the next four to five years. The first of these changes is the stepped
build up in the numbers of army personnel and their families based in the Salisbury
Plain area, as this is developed as one of the country’s first Super Garrisons. This
increase began in 2007 and should be completed by 2012. Associated with this
build up, the garrisons in the area are undergoing redevelopment as part of the
Project Allenby Connaught PFI45. This is the largest estates/services PFI to be
signed by the MoD, with the 35 year contract with Aspire Defence Ltd amounting to
around £8bn through life.
RAF Lyneham in North Wiltshire is currently the largest RAF base in the South West
region, but will be closing in its current form in 2012 with all personnel and functions
transferring to RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire. The site is being considered for
military re-use as a main operating base for Joint Helicopter Command46, although
no decision on this had been made at the time of writing.
In a third major change, the army headquarters currently based at Wilton and
Upavon merged in 2008 to form the new HQ Land Forces47. The personnel
associated with this combined organisation will be relocating to Andover,
Hampshire, with the move expected in 2010. The site at Upavon is most likely to be
retained for military use, while the Wilton site is classified as disposal and is
therefore expected to be released.
A second large estates/services PFI contract has been awarded to provide a new
facility for Information Systems and Services (formerly the Defence Communication
Services Agency) at Corsham in North Wiltshire. This will include the provision of
operational and technical support facilities, along with new office accommodation
and some Single Living Accommodation (SLA – barracks). The contract was
awarded in 2008 and construction should be completed in 2011. The overall value of
the contract is £800m over a 25 year lifespan48.
2.2.2 Bristol/Bath area
An acquisition hub for Defence Equipment and Stores (DE&S) is being created
within the Bristol/Bath area, which will result in the collocation of ‘decider’ elements
of DE&S at Abbey Wood (in the South Gloucestershire local authority area) and
Ensleigh, Bath. This collocation will see an increase of around 3,800 posts at Abbey
Wood49, bringing the total number of military and civilian posts there to over 10,000.
To accommodate the incoming personnel, a new site has been acquired adjacent to
Abbey Wood and a new office building (Neighbourhood 5) is being constructed50.
44
Summarized from the Defence Estates Development Plan (p.4-10) with additional information provided by
the military
45
Which also includes the redevelopment of the Aldershot Garrison in Hampshire
46
Under Project Belvedere
47
Under Project Hyperion
48
49
50
http://www.defence-estates.mod.uk/news_events/de_press_releases/2008/040808%20-%20Corsham.pdf
Including around 2,800 from outside the region
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/EstateAndEnvironment/NewAbbeyWoodOfficeSpaceOnTheWay.htm
22
2.2.3 Gloucestershire
RAF Innsworth, Gloucestershire, closed in March 200851, with around 2,000 military
and civilian posts leaving the area. The site has since transferred to the army and
been renamed Imjin Barracks52. This barracks will become the home to HQ Allied
Rapid Reaction Corps (ARRC) and its support elements (around 1,000 to 1,500
military and civilian personnel) as they return to the UK from Germany under the
Borona Programme.
2.2.4 Dorset
Under the Defence Training Review, the Royal School of Signals, currently based at
Blandford in Dorset, will be moving to St Athan in South Wales in 2010-2012. This
move will significantly reduce the numbers of military personnel based at Blandford
Camp and lead to a reduction in opportunities for civilian instructors. However, it is
expected that replacement units will move into the garrison.
2.2.5 Devon and Plymouth
The Naval Base at Devonport, Plymouth, is one of the country’s three principal base
ports. The recent Naval Base Review concluded that there would be no major
change in activity at the base53, but the modernising of the submarine fleet in
particular will lead to changes. The Trafalgar Class submarines, which have their
home port at Devonport, are to be decommissioned between 2009 and 2022, and
their capacity replaced by the new Astute Class, which will be based at Clyde Naval
Base in Scotland54. Further to this, there have been suggestions in the press that the
surface ships based in Plymouth may also be relocated elsewhere, but there has
been no official confirmation of this55. It is also likely that there will be some increase
in the number of Royal Marines based in the Naval Base area, as well as investment
to improve the Marines’ facilities at the Stonehouse and Bickleigh sites in
Plymouth56. Within the civilian part of the dockyard, 300 job losses have been
announced for the 2008/2009 financial year, as well as the construction of a new
£150m facility57.
Elsewhere in Devon, a new naval commando regiment is being formed and is
expected to be fully manned by 201158. The long term aim is for it to be located at
Chivenor, North Devon, with elements initially based at Yeovilton, Somerset.
51
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/gloucestershire/4099640.stm
52
http://www.mod.uk/DefenceInternet/DefenceNews/EstateAndEnvironment/FarewellInnsworthWelcomeImjin.htm
53
The Ministry of Defence Estate in the South West; A Briefing Note for the Government Office of the South
West. January 2009.
54
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200607/cmhansrd/cm070903/text/70903w0011.htm
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200405/cmhansrd/vo041207/text/41207w01.htm
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/server/show/ConWebDoc.5128
55
56
The Ministry of Defence Estate in the South West; A Briefing Note for the Government Office of the South
West. January 2009.
57
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/devon/7714819.stm
58
http://www.army.mod.uk/royalengineers/role/835.aspx
23
2.2.6 Cornwall
Ownership of the airfield at RAF St Mawgan, Cornwall, transferred from the MoD to
Cornwall County Council in December 200859, with all military flying operations
having ceased60. The airfield now operates as Newquay Cornwall Airport using RAF
facilities provided under a MoD commercial contractual arrangement. A decreased
number of military personnel remain on the site and these numbers may increase in
the future.
59
60
http://www.newquaycornwallairport.com/index.cfm?articleid=40547
http://www.raf.mod.uk/rafstmawgan/aboutus/index.cfm
24
2.3 Projected economic impacts
2.3.1. Areas studied
Five military sites at which major changes are expected to occur have been selected
for detailed, local level investigation. These sites are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The Salisbury Plain area, Wiltshire
RAF Lyneham, Wiltshire
Wilton (HQ Land), Wiltshire
Blandford Camp, Dorset
Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard
Local economic areas have been defined around each of these sites by identifying
reasonable daily commuting zones61 (Figure 2.2), and the economic impacts within
these zones examined. The economic impacts due to the changes at the sites listed
above have also been assessed within the relevant Local Authority areas (Wiltshire,
Dorset and Plymouth UA). Finally, the significance of all known planned and
potential changes within the region as a whole has been examined, along with the
overall economic significance of military employment in the region.
Military Changes
!
Modelled at local area level
Modelled at regional level
Local Economy Area Models
Salisbury Plain Super Garrison
RAF Lyneham
RAF
Lyneham
Wilton
RSS Blandford
!
HMNB Plymouth
SPSG!
Wilton !
!
RSS Blandford
!
HMNB
Plymouth
Figure 2.2 Local economic areas defined for this study (coloured outlines) and the Local
Authority areas in which military changes have also been examined (Wiltshire – green;
Dorset – pink; Plymouth – blue).
61
45 minute road commuting times. The zones were constructed using middle level Census super output areas
as building blocks, as population and employment data are available for these areas.
25
2.3.2. Method and data availability
The economic impacts of the military changes have been examined using an inputoutput model, set up for each of the geographic areas of interest. The model used
(Local Economy Forecasting Model, jointly developed by Cambridge Econometrics
and the Warwick Institute for Employment Research - CE/IER) is specifically
designed to allow the construction of local area models that are set within the
context of CE/IER’s national and regional economic projections, and customised on
the basis of local population and employment data. The models provide a framework
in which to examine impacts or shocks to a local area economy, taking into account
relevant feedbacks and interlinkages62.
The models allow the effects of changes to both employment and population levels
to be examined, as well as the impacts of major construction phases. The projected
impacts on Gross Value Added63, full-time equivalent employment and real
household disposable income64 relative to base economic forecasts are reported in
this study (Figure 2.3). Modelled changes in employment and construction phases
are assigned to the relevant industry sector, with each sector having a different,
default set of links to all other industries, a default proportion of local65 versus nonlocal industry inputs and a default productivity per worker66. The changes
investigated in this study have been assigned to the Public Administration and
Defence sector. The default settings outlined above have been adjusted to reflect
the distinct character of military bases (as compared to other public administration
sites), using locally provided financial information where possible. The adjustments
to these default settings are described in more detail in Appendix A.
In order for these changes to be modelled with a reasonable degree of confidence, a
large amount of information was required from the military. Access this information
has been made possible through the efforts of the 43 Wessex Brigade and the cooperation of Defence Estates and numerous military and civilian personnel. This
study therefore benefits from first hand information regarding planned changes to
military and civilian employment levels, the costs of maintenance and service
provision at a number of military bases, military and civilian wage data and the
timing and costs of major construction projects (including information relating to
Project Allenby Connaught provided by Aspire Defence Ltd)67. However, in spite of
this level of access to information, the inherent flexibility of military plans leaves a
significant degree of uncertainty, particularly relating to the timing of changes and
the potential re-use of sites.
62
Wilson, R., Assefa, A. and Beard, J. 1995. The use of LEFM in Impact Analysis: an example based in the
case of Toyota. University of Warwick and Cambridge Econometrics.
63
The difference between the value of goods and services produced and the cost of raw materials and other
inputs that are used in production. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/glossary/economic_terms.asp
64
Real household disposable income is the amount of money, in real terms, that the household sector has
available for spending after taxes and other deductions.
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/about/glossary/economic_terms.asp
65
i.e. within the model area 66
Equivalent to gross output per worker. 67
The majority of this material commercial in confidence and so details cannot all be included in this report. 26
300
250
Reported impact
relative to base
forecast
200
150
100
Base
forecast
Projection
including
modelled
economic
impact
50
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Figure 2.3. Representation of the reported economic impacts, i.e. the difference compared
to the base forecast.
2.3.3. Projected economic impacts for local economic areas and Local
Authority areas
2.3.3.i The Salisbury Plain Area
A. Area description and military usage
The Salisbury Plain Training Area forms a key part of the military training estate as
the only viable armoured and mechanised manoeuvre area in the UK68. The
garrisons around this area (Tidworth, Bulford, Netheravon, Perham Down, Larkhill
and Warminster Garrisons – Figure 2.4) are home to around 10,000 military
personnel, in mainly infantry and artillery units, and approximately 9,000 of their
dependants. The vast majority of these personnel live in close proximity to the
garrisons, either in barracks (~63%) or service family accommodation (~30%). The
military units are subject to deployments, and so the numbers of personnel and their
families69 in the area can fluctuate significantly. Tidworth, Bulford and Larkhill in
particular are very much garrison towns, with a population dominated by military
personnel and their families. Employment in these areas is also dominated by the
military presence, with direct military-related employment reaching 65% of total
employment in some areas70.
68
Defence Estates Development Plan 2030
Dependants often go back to family home areas when their military personnel partners are away on
deployments
70
Tidworth Community Area 2006 ABI and military survey data
69
27
Devizes
Trowbridge
Upavon
Salisbury Plain
Training Area
Netheravon
Tidworth &
Perham
Down
Warminster
Larkhill
Bulford
Warminster
Andover
Boscombe Down
Airfield
Salisbury
71
Figure 2.4. The Salisbury Plain Training Area and the garrisons of the Salisbury Plain
Super Garrison area (red). Other military sites in the area are shown in grey.
The local economic model set up for this area (Figure 2.5) is centred on the
Tidworth and Bulford Garrisons, toward the eastern edge of the Salisbury Plain
Training Area, as these sites will see the greatest change in personnel numbers.
The defined area includes a number of major urban employment centres, including
Swindon, Basingstoke, Salisbury and Andover.
71
Modified from Defence Estates Development Plan Annex A
28
Swindon
Devizes
Salisbury Plain
Super Garrison
Basingstoke
Andover
Warminster
Salisbury
Winchester
Figure 2.5. Defined local economic area around the Salisbury Plain garrisons. The Salisbury
Plain Training Area is highlighted and the Super Garrison bases shown in red.
Within the defined local economic area, military personnel constitute around 2% of
the total population, with direct military and civilian defence employment accounting
for around 4% of total employment (Figure 2.6). As indicated above, these
percentages increase significantly in the areas immediately surrounding the bases,
particularly Tidworth, Bulford and Larkhill. The employment profile within the local
economic area is dominated by base, business services and local commercial
services sectors, largely reflecting the trends within the main urban centres. In the
immediate vicinity of the bases, employment in commercial services is strongly
influenced by the defence presence, with a large proportion of employment in this
sector providing services to the military bases.
29
SPSG Area Employment
SPSG Area Population
13,700, 2%
13,700, 3% 5,300, 1%
Military
employment
Military
personnel
Civilian defence
employment
Total
population
Total non
defence
employment
380,000,
96%
695,000,
98%
Employment Sectors
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Military
Personnel
Civilian
Defence
Other
Utilities
Public
Services
Local Public
Services
Local
Commercial
Services
Business
services
Base
0
Figure 2.6. Population and employment characteristics of the Salisbury Plain local economic
72
area (Population – Office of National Statistics, mid-year 2007; Employment - ABI 2006) .
72
Employment sections definitions: Base: Agriculture, hunting and forestry; Fishing; Mining and quarrying;
Manufacturing; Recycling; Sale, maintenance and repair or motor vehicles; Retail sale of automotive fuel;
Wholesale trade and commission trade; Hotels and other tourist accommodation; Motion picture and video
production; Radio and television activities; Other entertainment activities; News agency activities; Museum
activities and preservation of historical sites; Botanical and zoological gardens and nature reserves. Local
Commercial Services: Retail trade (except motor); Repair of personal and household goods; Restaurants; Bars;
Canteens and catering; Banking (excluding Central Banking); Taxi operation; Travel agencies and tour
operators; Renting of personal and household goods; Adult and other education; Motion picture and video
distribution and projection; Sporting and other recreational activities. Local Public Services: Primary and
secondary education; Medical and dental practice activities; Social work activities (charitable and noncharitable); Library and archive services. Public Services: Public administration; Compulsory social security;
Higher education; Hospital activities (including private) and other human health activities. Business Services:
Real estate, renting and business activities; Renting of machinery and equipment without operator; Central
Banking and other financial intermediation; Insurance and pension funding (Except compulsory social
security); Activities auxiliary to financial intermediation; Computer and related activities; Research and
development; Veterinary activities; Activities of business, employers. Utilities, Communications and
Transport: Electricity, gas and water supplies; Construction; Land transport (excluding taxis); Pipeline
transport; Water transport; Air transport; Supporting and auxiliary transport activities (excluding travel
agencies); Sewage and refuse disposal, sanitation and similar activities. Other: Activities of professional
organisations; Activities of trade unions; Activities of other membership organisations; Extra-territorial
organisations and bodies; Undifferentiated goods and services producing activities of private households for
own use.
30
B. Military changes
The numbers of military personnel based in the Salisbury Plain area have been
increasing since 2007 (Table 2.2). By 2012, military numbers are expected to have
increased by over 3,000 to around 12,60073, which, combined with the associated
increase in dependants gives a total estimated population increase of around 5,400
people74. The increase in direct military employment is estimated to lead to an
increase in military earnings (basic pay) in the area of around £90m, taking the total
military earnings associated with the Salisbury Plain garrisons to around £330m75.
To accommodate the incoming personnel and their families, the capacity in barracks
is being increased and a significant number of new married quarter’s homes are due
to be built in Tidworth and Bulford.
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Total
Change
Garrison military employment levels
Tidworth &
3,800 5,000
5,700
6,300
6,800
6,800
6,800
+3,000
Perham Down
Bulford
2,100 1,900
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,700
+600
Larkhill
1,900 2,200
2,200
1,700
1,700
1,700
1,700
-200
Warminster
1,300 1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
1,300
0
Netheravon
200
200
100
100
100
100
0
-200
SPSG Total
9,300 10,600 11,300 11,500 12,100 12,100 12,600 +3,300
+1,000 +2,400 +2,600 +3,500 +3,500 +5,400 +5,400
Change to
modelled
population
Table 2.2 Expected change in military employment levels in the Salisbury Plain Super
Garrison area and the associated modelled cumulative increase in population (military
personnel plus dependants). Sums do not equal individual totals due to rounding.
The development of the Salisbury Plain area as a Super Garrison, and the
associated aspirations to improve the quality of life for those working within it and to
provide greater stability76, should mean that units will be based in the area more
permanently, with personnel spending the majority of their military careers based
around the area77. This increased stability may have positive effects for the local
economy in the immediate vicinity of the bases, where currently fluctuating
population levels makes the environment difficult for local businesses.
The Super Garrison area is currently undergoing a major phase of construction
(under the Project Allenby Connaught PFI) which began in 2007. The construction is
replacing large numbers of Single Living Accommodation blocks and also supplying
mess and leisure/community facilities. Construction is occurring across a number of
73
Based on Wiltshire Council annual survey of military bases in the county and future unit move figures provided by 43 Wessex Bde.
74
Only personnel and dependants in military accommodation have been included in the population change figures used for the economic modelling as those living in privately arranged accommodation are behave as part of the civilian population, essentially replacing and being replaced by civilians as they move in and out of the area, and so producing no overall economic effect.
75
Military personnel wage estimates derived from average basic pay information provided by HQ Land. 76
“Aspirations for the Salisbury Plain Super Garrison”. 43 Wessex Brigade and Military Civilian Integration
Sponsoring Group.
77
Compared to the current system with units moving regularly. 31
sites in a phased manner with work at Perham Down, Tidworth, Bulford, Larkhill and
Warminster. The majority of this work will be carried out before 2010, with annual
construction investment peaking in 2008 at over £200m78. The work is being carried
out under contract by Aspire Defence Capital Works – a company formed
specifically for the project with parent companies including Carillion and KBR. The
construction of the new living accommodation uses a large component of modular
units manufactured at locations elsewhere in the country79.
Prior to 2007, services provided to the military bases in the Super Garrison area
(estate maintenance, catering, cleaning etc) were provided through over 50
separate contracts, involving something in the region of 1,800 personnel80. In 2007,
all service provision was taken over by Aspire Defence Services Ltd, under the
Project Allenby Connaught PFI, for a term of 35 years. This was accompanied by
the transfer of existing staff and a small increase in services employment.
C. Projected economic impacts
The local economic model for this area has been used to assess the potential
impacts of the increases in military employment, the associated population increase
and the Project Allenby Connaught construction phase. Employment and population
changes have been input to the model as shown in Table 2.2 above and the impact
of the construction phase has been examined based on annual construction
investment data provided by Aspire Defence. A more detailed discussion of the
model inputs for all areas studied is set out in Appendix B. Figure 2.7 shows the
projected impact on Gross Value Added (GVA) and full-time equivalent (FTE)
employment compared to the base forecast from 2006 to 2020 and Table 2.3
presents a detailed breakdown of the impacts for 2009 and 2012, including real
household disposable income.
78
Information from Aspire Defence Ltd
Including a site in the South West and one in North Wales
80
Information from Aspire Defence Ltd
79
32
GVA Difference to Base Forecast
160
140
£2001m
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2018
2020
FTE Difference to Base Forecast
6
5
'000s
4
3
2
1
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Figure 2.7. Projected GVA and FTE employment differences to the base forecast as a result
of the military changes in the Salisbury Plain Super Garrison local economic area.
The maximum impact on GVA and FTE employment within the local economic area
is reached in 2012, when the increase in personnel numbers reaches its maximum
(Table 2.3 and Figure 2.7). The maximum projected impact on GVA, compared to
the base forecast, is an increase of around £140m81, or around 0.7% of the total
GVA for the area. The greater part of this impact (£94m) relates to the increase in
military employment, both directly and through the projected increase in demand for
goods and services from within the local economy. The nature of the military bases
means that this indirect impact is lower than would be projected for an equivalent
increase in employment in a civilian business due to the more limited links between
the bases and the wider local economy82.
81
All GVA figures are in 2001 £m to allow the relative change to be examined without the influence of
inflation
82
The degree of linkage between military bases and the surrounding local economy is thought to be low
compared to a civilian business with equivalent employment levels. Base services (maintenance, catering,
cleaning etc) are typically provided locally and therefore generate local employment. However, these are
commonly provided by large national/international companies and so it is unlikely that supply chains have a
large local component. Other inputs, equipment, uniforms, etc are procured under national contracts and so will
not necessarily have supply links in the local area.
33
% Difference to base projection
2009
2012
at 2012
GVA difference to base projection (£2001m)
Employment impact 58
94
Population impact 10
23
Construction impact 35
23
Total difference 103
140
0.7%
FTE jobs difference to base projection (‘000s)
4
Employment impact 2.6
0.4
Population impact 0.1
0.6
Total difference 3.8
5
1.2%
Total direct impact 2.2
3.4
Total indirect impact 1.6
1.6
Real Household Disposable Income (£2001m)
84
Employment impact 52
29
Population impact 16
13
Total difference 87
126
1.1%
Table 2.3. Difference in GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable income as a
result of the Salisbury Plain area military changes compared to base projections (forecasts
developed with the aid of CE/IER LEFM software).
The increased spending and use of services in the local area relating to the
increased military-related population is estimated to generate a maximum GVA
impact of around £23m (Table 2.3). Military populations differ from their civilian
counterparts in a number of ways, making the potential impacts of changes to their
number for a local economy difficult to assess. In army garrison areas in particular,
the military related population is dominated by young males and young families. A
large proportion of personnel are single and live on the bases, with meals and health
and other services provided. They could therefore be expected to have a relatively
low impact on the local economy. However, the service families tend to have young
children and so will generate a relatively high demand for childcare, education and
medical services. Also, as mentioned above, fluctuations in the military population
mean that they have less capacity to support local businesses than the civilian
population, although this difference may reduce in the future.
The maximum additional FTE employment generated in the area as a result of the
modelled changes is around 5,000 jobs, around 1.2% higher than the base forecast.
The majority of this change is direct, related to the additional 3,300 military jobs
moving to the area. An estimated 1,600 FTE jobs are created indirectly, mainly in
the services, retail, education and health sectors. Real household disposable
income is projected to increase by around £126m83 by 2012, around 1.1% higher
than the base forecast.
The impact of the Project Allenby Connaught construction project peaks in 2008 and
drops to zero in 2016, following the construction investment profile. The maximum
number of construction related staff working on the project at any one time is
83
All real household disposable income figures are in 2001 £m to allow the relative change to be examined
without the influence of inflation
34
thought to be around 1,000, with the majority being weekly boarders seconded from
the parent companies of Aspire Defence and sub-contractors84. Information provided
by Aspire shows, that as of 2008, the construction project had engaged with around
650 sub-contractors and other companies, of which around 10% were based in the
local economic area. Of those companies based in the area, most are involved in
the construction and hotel and catering sectors, with significant numbers also in land
transport, professional and other business services and public administration and
defence (Figure 2.8).
Companies Used
0
5
10
15
20
Agriculture
Text. Cloth & Tobacco
Wood & Paper
Printing & Publishing
Rubber & Plastics
Non-Met Min. Prods
Basic Metals
Metal Goods
Mech. Engin.
Electronics
Elec. Eng & Instrum.
Manufacturing
Industry Sector
Electricity
Water Supply
Construction
Distribution
Retailing
Hotels & Catering
Land Transp etc
Communications
Banking & Finance
Insurance
Computing Serivces
Prof. Services
Other Bus. Services
Public Admin & Def.
Education
Health & Soc. Work
Misc Services
Unalloc
Figure 2.8. Number and industry sector of companies in the Salisbury Plain local economic
area used by the Project Allenby Connaught construction programme as at 2008 (data
supplied by Aspire Defence Capital Works).
84
As indicated by Aspire Defence Ltd.
35
All in all, this analysis suggests that the increase in armed forces numbers within the
Super Garrison area, together with the construction activities, should already have
given rise to significant increases in GVA, FTE employment and real household
disposable income, although the scale of these impacts should not be overexaggerated. Looking to the future, the construction activity will decrease, but armed
forces numbers continue to increase, albeit at a slower rate, until around 2012,
leading to a more gradual increase in GVA and FTE employment. After this time,
little change is currently expected.
36
2.3.3.ii RAF Lyneham
A.
Area description and military usage
RAF Lyneham in north Wiltshire is currently the home of the UK’s Hercules fleet and
is the largest RAF base in the South West. The base is in a rural location, adjacent
to the settlement of Lyneham, and covers over 2,900 acres with around 1,500
buildings85. In 2007 there were 2,500 military personnel stationed at RAF Lyneham
and around 200 civil servants86. The base has a number of functions including flying,
engineering and logistics and also hosts a number of “lodger” units. Military
personnel here have been relatively settled because, once trained to work with the
Hercules, they would typically be based here for the majority of their military career.
A relatively high proportion of personnel therefore live in their own homes (~40%),
mostly around Lyneham, Swindon and a number of towns in North Wiltshire, with
the remaining personnel living in barracks and married quarters in and around the
base. Services are provided to the base under a multi-activity contract, which
provides employment for around 280 civilian contractors. The local economic area
around RAF Lyneham defined for this study is shown in Figure 2.9 and includes the
nearby major urban employment centre at Swindon, as well as the towns of
Chippenham, Bath, Trowbridge and Devizes.
Swindon
Chippenham
RAF Lyneham
Bath
Trowbridge
Devizes
Figure 2.9. Defined local economic model area around RAF Lyneham.
Military personnel make up around 1% of the total population in the Lyneham local
economic area (Figure 2.10). This presence is concentrated around the settlement
of Lyneham, where of a total population of around 5,000, more than half are military
personnel and their families. Direct military and civilian defence employment
85
86
Royal Airforce Lyneham: Community Needs Analysis. Lisa Mitchell. December 2004.
With a significant proportion of these being partners of the RAF personnel.
37
account for around 2% of total employment in the area. The overall employment
profile is dominated by base, local commercial services and business services
sectors, largely reflecting the trends in Swindon.
Lyneham Area Population
Lyneham Area Employment
4,200, 1%
4,200, 1% 4,800, 1%
Military
employment
Military
personnel
Civilian defence
employment
Total
population
Total non
defence
employment
330,000, 98%
650,000, 99%
Employment sectors
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Military
Personnel
Civilian
Defence
Other
Utilities
Public
Services
Local Public
Services
Local
Commercial
Services
Business
services
Base
0
Figure 2.10. Population and employment characteristics of the RAF Lyneham local
economic area (Population – Office of National Statistics, mid-year 2007; Employment - ABI
2006).
B. Military changes
Between 2010 and 2012 most RAF functions will move from Lyneham to RAF Brize
Norton in Oxfordshire, with RAF Lyneham closing in its current form in 2012. The
current base services contract will also expire in 2012. As the base functions will be
leaving in stages, there will be an associated staged decrease in the numbers of
military personnel stationed at the site. The exact rate of this employment decrease
is unknown, but has been estimated in Table 2.4. The decrease in the local military
related population will be delayed compared to this decrease in employment. This is
because there will initially be insufficient living accommodation for all personnel to
move to RAF Brize Norton and so they will continue to live in Lyneham until this can
be provided. New Single Living Accommodation (SLA) should be available from
2012 and new family accommodation is not expected to be provided until around
2014. Those personnel in their own homes are expected to move gradually, given
that RAF Brize Norton is within around an hour’s commute from Lyneham. The
population in the area is therefore modelled to decrease gradually as the military
personnel and their families leave the area. The direct loss of military earnings in the
38
area would be around £58m, a decrease of over 80% of the current military earnings
in the area87.
The Lyneham site is being considered for re-use as a main operating base for
military helicopters. No decision has yet been made or funding allocated, and it is
likely that if the site were to be re-used in this way, there would be some delay
between the RAF leaving and any new personnel moving in. It is unknown how
many personnel would occupy the site in the event of a future military use and it has
therefore been assumed that the numbers would be similar to the present level. The
Royal Naval Air Station at Yeovilton, Somerset, is a large helicopter base, and
possibly a close analogy, and currently has around 2,550 personnel.
If no further military use could be found for the site, it could be released and
potentially used as a civilian employment site. If a 15ha employment site was
allocated to this location, this could host up to around 825 new jobs88. For the
purposes of this study, this is being considered as the potential maximum size of
any employment development, given the rural nature of the site and the scale of the
employment allocations required for North Wiltshire89. Of course, even if the site
were to be allocated for civilian employment use, if this was considered appropriate
in strategic planning terms, this does not guarantee that businesses would choose
to use it. In addition to this potential employment use, if the military were to
permanently vacate this site, it is likely that the married quarters properties in
Lyneham would be sold, leading to an increase in the civilian population.
Three different scenarios have therefore been examined for this area, the first
looking at the closure of RAF Lyneham with no further military use and the second
looking at the potential military re-use of the base. This re-use scenario sees military
employment at the base return to similar levels to before the RAF’s withdrawal, with
new personnel arriving in 2014. The third scenario assumes the creation of around
800 new civilian jobs on the Lyneham site and an increase in the civilian population
(Table 2.4).
87
It is not expected that all military earnings will ever leave the area as a number of personnel living in their
own properties in the Swindon area are expected to stay, as this is within a reasonable commuting distance of
RAF Brize Norton.
88
Based on an assumed employment rate of 55 jobs per ha.
89
15ha is used as a potential maximum size, based on the scale of employment requirements in the 2011 North
Wiltshire Structure Plan – 150ha over the 10 year plan period. 15ha is large for North Wiltshire, with the largest
employment site allocated in the plan period being just over 13ha.
39
RAF Lyneham closure and
2010 2011 2012 2013
potential re-use scenarios
Scenario 1: Closure of RAF Lyneham with no military re-use
Base employment levels
2,700 2,200 1,450 0
Change to modelled population 0
0
0
-900
Scenario 2: Closure of RAF Lyneham with future military use
2,700 2,200 1,450 0
0
0
-900
2014
2015
0
-1,500
0
-2,800
2,700
+400
2,700
+400
Scenario 3: Closure of RAF Lyneham with civilian re-use
2,700 2,200 1,450 0
830
830
Base & Civilian employment
90
levels
0
0
-900
-1,500 -2,450*
Table 2.4. Employment and population change scenarios for RAF Lyneham.
* Assuming married quarter’s properties are sold off gradually from 2015 and are all in
civilian ownership by 2019 there would be an increasing off-set of the reduction in
population resulting from the closure of the base. However, given that the personnel in
barracks would not be replaced in this scenario, the population levels will always remain
around 1,000 lower than if the base had not closed.
The potential economic impacts of the scenarios outlined above, in terms of GVA,
FTE employment and real household disposable income are set out in Table 2.5
and Figure 2.11 below. Figure 2.11 shows the projected impact of the three
scenarios on GVA and FTE employment compared to the base forecast from 2010
to 2020 and Table 2.5 presents a detailed breakdown of the impacts for 2013 and
2015.
90
The new civilian employment is modelled as being in the distribution sector.
40
20
£2001m
0
2010
-20
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
No re-use
-40
Potential
military
re-use
-60
Possible
civilian reuse
-80
-100
-120
0.5
0
2010
-0.5
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
No re-use
-1
'000s
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
Potential
military
re-use
Possible
civilian reuse
-3.5
-4
Figure 2.11. Projected GVA and FTE employment differences to the base forecast as a
result of the military changes in the RAF Lyneham local economic area.
In the event of the closure of the base with no future use, GVA, FTE employment
and real household disposable income are projected to decline relatively sharply
compared to the base forecast to 2013, at which time there would be no military
employment on the base, followed by a more gradual decline to 2015 as the military
population in the area decreases. The GVA reduction compared to the base forecast
is around £90m by 2015, or around 0.5% of the total for the area. Again, the greater
part of this impact (~£76m) is related to the direct and indirect effects of the change
in base employment, with the impact of the shrinking military population being less
significant (Table 2.5).
The maximum projected impact on FTE employment is a decrease of around 3,400
jobs compared to the base forecast, around 1% of the total for the area. The
majority of this impact relates to the loss of direct employment on the base (2,700
jobs)91 with an indirect impact of around 700 jobs, mainly in the services, retail,
education and health sectors. This would include losses resulting from the
91
The majority of the military employment “losses” discussed will not involve actual job losses, but rather the
re-location of employment to other areas.
41
termination of the base services contract, which currently employs around 280
people. The viability of the local primary school is also likely to be threatened, as this
currently draws over 70% of its pupils from military families92. This scenario would
also see a reduction in real household disposable income of around £86m, around
0.8% of the base forecast total.
Should any future military re-use of the Lyneham site be of a similar scale to the
current use (as in Scenario 2), then the GVA, FTE employment and real household
disposable income would be expected to quickly return to around the pre-closure
levels (Table 2.5 and Figure 2.11). However, there is a great deal of uncertainty
regarding the scale of this potential re-use, and so GVA, FTE employment and
disposable household income following a military re-use may be significantly lower
or possibly even higher than at present.
In the case of Scenario 3, the combined impacts of the potential development of a
civilian employment site at Lyneham and an increase in the civilian population as
married quarters properties are sold off, could significantly off-set the impact of the
base closure in terms of local GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable
income (Table 2.5 and Figure 2.11). Such a re-use could potentially create around
500 indirect jobs in the area, in addition to the estimated 800 direct jobs which may
be generated by the development of the civilian employment site. Overall
employment levels would still be considerably lower than before the military
withdrawal, but with a relatively great positive impact on GVA93.
Given the uncertainty around the potential military re-use of Lyneham, it will be
important to “keep an eye on the ball” regarding military decision making on this
issue. Also, the appropriateness and scale of any potential civilian re-use of the site
will need to be determined.
92
Royal Airforce Lyneham: Community Needs Analysis. Lisa Mitchell. December 2004. The impact on GVA is projected to be higher than the impact on FTE employment as civilian jobs generate a higher GVA per employee than military jobs within this analysis because of the assumed closer links to the local economy (see note 82). 93
42
2013
2015
% Difference to base projection at 2015
Scenario 1: Closure of RAF Lyneham with no military re-use
Employment impact -73
-76
Population impact -2
-15
Total difference -75
-90
-0.5%
Employment impact -3.2
-3.2
Population impact 0
-0.2
Total difference -3.2
-3.4
Total direct impact -2.7
-2.7
Total indirect impact -0.5
-0.7
-72
-14
-86
-1%
-0.8%
Scenario 2: Closure of RAF Lyneham with future military use
0
+2
+2
0%
0
Population impact 0
0
0
0
0
0
+3
+3
0%
0%
Scenario 3: Closure of RAF Lyneham with civilian re-use
-20
-6
-26
-0.2%
-1.9
Population impact 0
-0.2
-2.1
-1.9
-0.2
-0.6%
-42
-13
-55
-0.5%
result of the RAF Lyneham military changes, compared to base projections (forecasts
43
2.3.3.iii Wilton
HQ Land Command based at Erskine Barracks in Wilton and HQ Adjutant General,
based at Upavon on the Salisbury Plain merged on 1st April 2008 to form the new
HQ Land Forces. The new HQ controls around 80% of the troops in the UK and its
role is to deliver the army’s operational capability, wherever required throughout the
world. The Adjutant General’s Corps is responsible for the management of soldiers
and includes personnel, policing, education, training and legal functions94. There are
currently around 600 military personnel stationed at Wilton and around 370 based at
Upavon. In addition, in late 2006 there were 760 civilian posts at the former HQ
Land Command and 470 civilian posts at the HQ Adjutant General95. The two sites
are in very different settings, with the Wilton site close to Salisbury, and so part of
one of the largest employment centres in Wiltshire, and Upavon in an isolated rural
setting on the Salisbury Plain. The defined local economic area for these sites
(Figure 2.12) is centred on Wilton, as this has the largest number of personnel, and
includes major employment centres at Salisbury, Andover and Southampton.
Devizes
Upavon
Andover
Warminster
Wilton
Salisbury
Southampton
Figure 2.12. Defined local economic area around Wilton.
94
95
http://www.armedforces.co.uk/army/listings/l0078.html
http://www.armedforces.co.uk/army/listings/l0007.html
44
Military personnel constitute around 1% of the total population in the Wilton local
economic area (Figure 2.13), although most of these are associated with the
Salisbury Plain Super Garrison, rather than the HQ’s. Military and civilian defence
employment account for around 2% of the total in the area, again largely reflecting
the Super Garrison sites. The local employment profile is strongly influenced by
local commercial services, as well as base and business services sectors.
Wilton Area Population
Wilton Area Employment
13,800, 1%
13,800, 1%
7,200, 1%
Military
employment
Military
personnel
Civilian defence
employment
Total
population
Total non
defence
employment
1,400,000,
98%
950,000, 99%
Employment sectors
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
Military
Personnel
Civilian
Defence
Other
Utilities
Public
Services
Local Public
Services
Local
Commercial
Services
Business
services
Base
0
Figure 2.13. Population and employment characteristics of the Wilton local economic area
(Population – Office of National Statistics, mid-year 2007; Employment - ABI 2006).
B. Military Changes
The HQ’s from Wilton and Upavon will be collocating in Andover, Hampshire in
around 2010. Once moved to this new site, the HQ will have around 1,750 military
and civilian staff, with a reduction of around 240 civilian and 100 military posts from
the combined personnel currently at Wilton and Upavon96. As Andover is within the
defined local economic area, no significant population change is expected as a
result of this move.
The Wilton site is classified by the MoD as disposal, and is therefore expected to be
released after the withdrawal of the HQ personnel. The military housing will be
retained and continue to be used by these personnel for around 5 years after the
move, until additional housing can be provided in the Andover area. Potential
options for the re-use of the Wilton site are being discussed, with the creation of a
mixed use site with around 3-4ha of employment land and around 600 houses
appearing a likely option97. The Upavon site is most likely to be retained as part of
96
97
Information from Hyperion project team
Salisbury District Council Forward Planning Department
45
the military estate and it is expected to be used as part of the Salisbury Plain Super
Garrison.
The reduction in posts resulting from the merger of two HQ’s is projected to have a
limited negative impact on GVE, FTE employment and real household disposable
income at the scale of the local economic area (as set out in Table 2.6).
2010 % Difference to base projection
Total impact -9
-0.04%
Total impact -0.4
-0.1%
Total impact -8
-0.1%
result of the Wilton area military changes compared to base projections (forecasts
If part of the Wilton site were to be used for an employment development, this could
have a significant positive effect on the local area with between around 300 and
1,100 direct jobs created, depending on the type of use of the site98. This could lead
to the generation of between around £20m and £110m GVA, between 200 and
1,500 additional indirect FTE jobs and between around £10m and £60m real
household disposable income (Table 2.7). As discussed above, the allocation of a
site for employment use does not guarantee that this use will be forthcoming. Also,
such a use may not necessarily represent the creation of new GVA and employment
in the area, as the new site may be used by companies relocating within the local
economic area.
98
Estimated from Salisbury District Council Forward Planning Department
46
B1 use – office and light industry
Potential direct employment generated
Potential indirect employment generated
Total FTE jobs difference to base projection
Real Household Disposable Income difference
to base projection (£2001m)
1,130
1,520
2,650
112
57
B2 use – heavy industry
Potential direct employment generated
Potential indirect employment generated
Total FTE jobs difference to base projection
Real Household Disposable Income difference
650
610
1,260
60
27
B8 use – warehousing
Potential direct employment generated 320
Potential indirect employment generated 220
Total FTE jobs difference to base projection 540
GVA difference to base projection (£2001m) 21
Real Household Disposable Income difference 11
Table 2.7. Potential economic impacts of a civilian employment use of the Wilton site in
2012 (assuming civilian re-use from 2012 - forecasts developed with the aid of CE/IER
LEFM software).
47
2.3.3.iv Wiltshire Local Authority Area
The military changes at the Salisbury Plain, RAF Lyneham and the army HQ’s in
Wiltshire analysed above have also been examined at county scale, along with the
construction of new facilities and a small increase in employment at Corsham in
North Wiltshire (see Section 2.2.1). The modelled changes to employment and
population within the county are generally the same as for the local economic areas,
with the exception of the army HQ’s. In this case, the HQ’s are relocating within the
defined local economic area for Wilton but are leaving Wiltshire. The impacts are
therefore considerably greater at county scale, with Wiltshire loosing around 2,000
defence posts compared to a loss of only around 300 for the Wilton local economic
area.
Potential best, worst and intermediate case scenarios, in terms of direct employment
and population change, are set out in Table 2.8, along with the estimated combined
investment profile for the Salisbury Plain and Corsham construction programmes99.
The best case scenario includes the potential military re-use of RAF Lyneham and
the re-use of part of the Wilton site for office-based civilian employment, the
intermediate case includes the re-use of Lyneham but not Wilton and the worst case
scenario assumes no employment re-use of either of these sites.
Wiltshire LA
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2020
military changes
Employment change (‘000s)
Best case
1.3
2.1
2.2
0.7
0.3
1.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
Intermediate case 1.3
2.1
2.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
-1.3 1.4
1.4
Worst case
1.3
2.1
2.2
0.7
0.3
0.1
-1.3 -1.3 -1.3
Population change (‘000s)
Best &
1.0
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
4.3
3.4
4.7
4.7
Intermediate case
Worst case
1.0
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
4.3
3.4
2.8
1.5
Estimated construction investment (£m)
Total
112
154
133
118
93
61
14
2
0
Table 2.8. Combined employment and population change scenarios and construction
investment profile for Wiltshire County.
The combined maximum economic impact resulting from confirmed military changes
is reached in 2009, with an additional £114m GVA, 4,100 FTE jobs and £87m real
household disposable income compared to the base forecast, around 1.4% to 2% of
the area totals (Table 2.9 and Figure 2.14). The growing positive impacts of the
personnel increases around the Salisbury Plain are curtailed by the movement of
army HQ’s out of the county in 2010. As discussed above, the impact of the HQ’s
leaving Wiltshire is significantly greater than the impact on the Wilton local economic
area, with a decrease of around £56m GVA, 2,700 FTE jobs and £54m real
household disposable income in 2010.
99
Using an estimated “local share” of the known annual investment profile for the Salisbury Plain Super
Garrison case to account for the use of a large component of modular units in the construction that are sourced
elsewhere in the country, and an estimated front-loaded annual investment profile for Corsham.
48
Following the best case scenario, GVA, FTE employment and real household
disposable income increase significantly compared to the base forecast from 2012,
to a maximum positive impact of around £220m GVA, 4,600 FTE jobs and £140m
real household disposable income, 1.6% to 2.2% of the base forecast levels100.
Alternatively, under the worst case scenario, the combined negative impacts
outweigh the positive impact of the Salisbury Plain area growth by 2013 (Figure
2.14), with a long term decrease in GVA of around £35m, FTE employment of
around 2,000 jobs and real household disposable income of £38m compared to
base forecast. In the intermediate case, the overall impact of the military changes for
Wiltshire is projected to be positive, with GVA around £67m, FTE employment
around 1,500 jobs and real household disposable income around £70m above the
base forecast101.
2009 % Difference to base
projection
Best case
114
1.4%
Intermediate
114
1.4%
case
Worst case
114
1.4%
Best case
4.1
2%
Intermediate
4.1
2%
case
Worst case
4.1
2%
projection
220
67
2%
0.6%
-35
-0.3%
4.6
1.8
2.2%
0.8%
-1.8
-0.8%
Best case
87
1.4%
140
1.6%
Intermediate
87
1.4%
70
0.8%
case
Worst case
87
1.4%
-38
-0.4%
result of the military changes in Wiltshire, compared to base projections (forecasts
100
In the best case scenario, the GVA impact is considerably greater than the impact on real household
disposable income due to the large influence of the potential civilian re-use of Wilton, which has a higher
relative impact on GVA compared to household disposable income due to the modelled high degree of local
economic industry linkage.
101
In the intermediate and worst cases, in 2009 the impact on GVA is significant higher than that on household
disposable income due to the influence of the construction projects, which have relatively high local economic
industry links. By 2020 however, the impact on household disposable income is somewhat higher than that on
GVA. By this time the modelled construction phases no longer have an effect so the only impacts relate to
changes in military employment and military-related population. Both of these factors have relatively low
impacts on GVA, due to the assumed low industry linkages within the local economy.
49
250
200
£2001m
150
Wiltshire
total - Worst
Case
Civilian
employment
use of Wilton
SPSG
personnel
increases
Army
HQ’s
leave
county
Wiltshire
total - Best
Case
Potential re-use
of RAF
Lyneham
100
Wiltshire
total Intermediate
50
Closure of
RAF Lyneham
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-50
FTE Employment Difference to Base Forecast
6.0
Wiltshire
total - Worst
Case
5.0
4.0
Wiltshire
total - Best
Case
'000's
3.0
2.0
Wiltshire
total Intermediate
1.0
0.0
2006
-1.0
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-2.0
-3.0
result of the military changes in Wiltshire.
50
2.3.3.v Blandford Camp and Dorset Local Authority Area
Blandford Camp in Dorset currently hosts a number of military functions, including
Blandford Garrison, HQ Defence College of Communications and Information
Systems (DCCIS), HQ Signal Officer in Chief and the Royal School of Signals.
These functions together directly employ around 1,000 permanent military staff and
around 700 civilians, with 600-700 military trainees also on the site at any one
time102, along with around 800 dependants. This equates to a maximum of around
2,400 directly employed personnel on the base, not including services contractors103.
The local economic area defined around Blandford Camp is shown in Figure 2.15
and includes the major employment centres of Bournemouth-Poole and Salisbury.
Salisbury
Blandford
Camp
Bournemouth
Poole
Figure 2.15. Defined local economic area around Blandford Camp.
Military personnel account for around 1% of the total population in the Blandford
local economic area, including personnel from other military sites in Dorset and
south Wiltshire (Figure 2.16). Military and civilian defence employment together
account for around 2% of total employment. The local employment profile is
dominated by base and local commercial services sectors, with a relatively low
component of business services.
102
Military trainees spend between 3 and 18 months at Blandford and can apply for family quarters there if
their stay is for more than 26 weeks.
103
The total “population” of the base has been quoted as being around 4,000 with around 3,000 assumed fulltime jobs associated with the training activity. This seems too high based on the information we have from
Blandford.
51
Blandford Area Employment
Blandford Area Population
3,500, 1%
3,500, 1%
2,300, 1%
Military
employment
Military
personnel
Civilian defence
employment
Total
population
470,000,
99%
Total non defence
employment
243,300,
98%
Employment sectors
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
Military
Personnel
Civilian
Defence
Other
Utilities
Public
Services
Local Public
Services
Local
Commercial
Services
Business
services
Base
0
Figure 2.16. Population and employment characteristics of the Blandford Camp local
economic area (Population – Office of National Statistics, mid-year 2007; Employment - ABI
2006).
B. Military Changes
Under the Defence Training Review, the Royal School of Signals will be moving to
St Athan, South Wales in 2012 and significantly downsizing. Nearly all training will
be delivered by Metrix, a civilian partner104. However, not all of the functions at the
garrison will be moving away and it is intended that there will be some “backfill” units
moving into the site after the withdrawal of the Royal School of Signals. The exact
nature of this backfill is not currently known, but will possibly consist of around 800900 military personnel105. After this change in profile therefore, the garrison will be
fully staffed, but with reduced opportunities for civilian instructors. The current base
personnel composition, and the potential composition after the change in profile,
with and without backfill units, is shown in Table 2.10.
104
Metrix will take over training on the Blandford site from around the end of 2009, but using the same staff, so
there should be no real change in employment until the move to St Athan.
105
Information from base
52
Personnel based at Blandford Camp
Permanent
Military
Civilian
military personnel trainees
training staff
Other
civilian
staff
~275
~275
~1,000
600-700
~400
2008
~600
0
0
Post-RSS move
with no backfill
units
~1,400
0
0
~275
Post-RSS move
with backfill units
Table 2.10. Current and potential future personnel composition at Blandford Camp.
Total
~2,400
~875
~1,700
The Blandford local area economic model has been used to examine the potential
impacts of the total closure of Blandford Camp (as a possible worst case scenario,
even though this does not seem likely at this time), and the relocation of the Royal
School of Signals, both with and without backfill units moving into the camp106. The
employment and population changes associated with these scenarios are shown in
Table 2.11 and the economic impacts shown in Figure 2.17 and Table 2.12.
Blandford employment and
2011
population change scenarios
Scenario 1: Closure of Blandford
2,400
Change to modelled population
0
2012
2013
onward
0
-2,500
0
-2,500
Scenario 2: Relocation of RSS personnel with no backfill
2,400
900
900
0
-2,200 -2,200
Scenario 3: Relocation of RSS personnel with backfill units
2,400
900
1,700
0
-2,200 -500
Table 2.11. Employment and population change scenarios for Blandford Camp.
The potential worst case scenario of the total closure of Blandford Camp (Scenario
1) is projected to cause the loss of around £74m GVA (~0.5% of the total for the
area) and around 3,100 FTE jobs (around 1% of the total for the area) by 2015
compared to the base forecast, as well as around £83m in real household
disposable income (Table 2.12 and Figure 2.17). The projected employment
reduction would consist of 2,400 direct jobs (permanent military and civilian base
employees and trainees) and around 700 indirect jobs.
Looking at the relocation of the Royal School of Signals specifically, rather than the
closure of the base as a whole, if no backfill units were to move into Blandford
(Scenario 2), the lower employment and population are projected to lead to the loss
of around £50m GVA (around 0.3% if the area total) and around 2,000 FTE jobs
106
For the purposes of this study it is assumed that there would be a delay of around 1 year between the Royal
School of Signals personnel leaving Blandford and any new backfill units moving in.
53
(around 0.5% of the area total) by 2015, along with around £58m in real disposable
household income. This scenario would see direct employment at the base
decrease by around 1,500 to only 900 military and civilian personnel, with a
projected associated loss of around 500 indirect FTE jobs.
If around 800 military personnel were to be moved into Blandford following the
withdrawal of the Royal School of Signals (as has been suggested – Scenario 3),
direct base employment levels would rise to around 1,700. As this is still lower than
the current level, it is projected that there would be a long-term negative impact on
the local economic area of around £20m GVA and around 900 FTE jobs, of which
700 are direct military base employment and 200 are indirect, along with a decrease
of around £23m in real household disposable income.
0
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
-20
Closure
£2001m
-40
RSS move
with no
backfill
-60
RSS move
with
backfill
units
-80
-100
0
2010
-0.5
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Closure
-1
'000s
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
RSS move
with no
backfill
RSS move
with
backfill
units
-3.5
Figure 2.17. Projected GVA and FTE employment differences to base forecast as a result of
the military changes in the Blandford Camp local economic area.
54
2012 2015
% Difference to base projection at 2015
-64
-10
-74
-0.5%
-2.9
Population impact -0.1
-0.2
Total difference -3
-3.1
-1%
-2.4
-0.7
-64
-18
-83
-0.7%
Scenario 2: Relocation of RSS personnel with no backfill
-40
-2
-50
-0.3%
-1.8
-0.2
-2
-0.5%
-1.5
-0.5
-40
-17
-58
-0.5%
Scenario 3: Relocation of RSS personnel with backfill units
-19
-2
-21
-0.1%
-0.8
-0.05
-0.9
-0.2%
-0.7
-0.2
-19
-4
-23
-0.1%
Table 2.12. Difference in GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable income as
a result of the Blandford Camp military changes, compared to base projections (forecasts
55
A previous study of the impact of the potential closure of Blandford Camp by Dorset
County Council estimated that this would lead to the loss of almost £150m GVA and
around 4,200 jobs, including 3,000 military base employees107. These are
significantly different to our estimates (as set out in Table 2.12: Scenario 1), and it is
important that the likely reasons for these differences are addressed. Our
investigation suggests that the previous estimates are too high, largely because the
initial number of military base posts projected to be lost is too high. However, it is
likely that the use of model default values for industry links etc could also be a
contributory factor. As noted earlier in this study, military bases are thought to have
less intensive supply-chain links with their locality than do many other activities, and
to ignore this aspect will undoubtedly give rise to an overestimate of the significance
of their economic impacts.
D. Scale of economic impact for the Dorset County Local Authority area
The local economic area defined for Blandford Camp includes major employment
centres at Salisbury, Bournemouth and Poole that lie outside of the county of Dorset
Local Authority area. The relative significance of the GVA, FTE employment and
real household disposable income impacts resulting from the potential military
changes at the camp are therefore greater when looking specifically at Dorset
County. The scale of these impacts as a percentage of the base forecast level is
approximately twice as great for Dorset County, being a maximum of around -1% of
GVA, -2% of FTE employment and -1.3% of real household disposable income for
Scenario 1 (Table 2.13), as compared to around -0.5% GVA, -1% FTE employment
and -0.7% of real household disposable income at the local area level (see Table
2.12).
107
Blandford Camp – Defence Training Rationalisation Programme. Council Meeting 17 October 2006.
http://www.purbeck-dc.gov.uk/pdf/CM%20171006%20BLANDFORD%20CAMP.pdf
Blandford Camp: Potential Closure Economic Impact Assessment. Anne Gray, Research and Information,
Dorset County Council. September 2006.
56
2012 2015 % Difference to base
projection at 2015
-67
-74
-1%
Scenario 2: Relocation of RSS personnel
-44
-50
-0.7%
with no backfill
-44
-21
-0.3%
with backfill units
-3
-1.9
with no backfill
-1.9
with backfill units
-3.1
-2
-1.9%
-1.2%
-0.9
-0.6%
-68
-83
-1.3%
-42
-58
-0.9%
with no backfill
-42
-23
-0.4%
with backfill units
Table 2.13. GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable income impacts of the
Blandford Camp military change scenarios for Dorset County.
57
2.3.3.vi Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard
The Devonport complex in Plymouth consists of the military Naval Base and
collocated civilian dockyard, which is owned and operated by Babcock Marine108.
The Naval Base is currently the home port to 7 nuclear-powered submarines and 19
major surface ships, including frigates, amphibious assault vessels and
hydrographic ships. Devonport is also a key location for Flag Officer Sea Training
(FOST), which provides operational training for both Royal Navy and foreign
crews109. The civilian operated dockyard provides a number of vital maintenance,
upgrading and nuclear defueling operations110 and it is required to remain licensed
and available as long as the Navy operates nuclear-powered submarines. Plymouth
is also home to a number of other Navy, Marines and Defence Equipment & Stores
sites. In addition, HMS Rayleigh, a major Navy training establishment at Torpoint,
Cornwall also lies within the Plymouth local economic area defined for this study
(Figure 2.18). The military and civilian employment within the Naval Base and wider
Plymouth local economic area are summarized in Table 2.14.
Exeter
HMNB
Plymouth
City of
Plymouth
Torbay
Figure 2.18. Defined local economic model area for the Plymouth Naval Base and
Dockyard.
108
http://www.babcock.co.uk/opco/marine/
http://www.royalnavy.mod.uk/server/show/nav.3682
110
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6641427.stm
109
58
Plymouth area military related employment
Naval Base military personnel
1,300
Naval Base civilians
1,100
Operational ships crew
4,900
Dockyard employees
~5,000
Naval Base and Dockyard Total
12,300
Other Plymouth military personnel
~1,150
Torpoint (Cornwall) military personnel
1,300
Total Plymouth local economic area ~14,800
Table 2.14. Military and civilian defence employment in the Plymouth local economic area
111
(compiled from Defence Analytical Services Agency figures and published sources ).
Military personnel constitute around 1% of the total population within the Plymouth
local economic area112 and military and civilian defence employment around 3% of
total employment (Figure 2.19). The local employment profile is dominated by base
sectors, including the civilian dockyard employment.
Plymouth Area Population
Plymouth Area Employment
4,400, 2%1,800, 1%
4,400, 1%
Military
employment
Military
personnel
Civilian defence
employment
Total
population
426,000,
99%
Total non defence
employment
192,000,
97%
Employment sectors
Military
Personnel
Civilian
Defence
Other
Utilities
Public
Services
Local Public
Services
Local
Commercial
Services
Business
services
Base
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
Figure 2.19. Population and employment characteristics of the Plymouth local economic
area (Population – Office of National Statistics, mid-year 2007; Employment - ABI 2006).
111
Naval Base Review: Economic Impact. South West Regional Development Agency. Experian. 12 February
2007.
112
Assuming that only around 40% of the ships and submarine crew are in the area at any one time.
59
B. Military Changes
While the Naval Base Review concluded that there would be no major change in
activity at Devonport, the decommissioning of the Trafalgar Class submarines will
lead to a drawdown in the numbers of submarine crew based in the city, with all
Plymouth’s submariners assumed to be relocating to the Clyde by around
2020/2022. Related to this decommissioning, Babcock has announced around 300
civilian job losses at the Devonport dockyard113. A further possible change in military
personnel numbers in the area may result from the movement of a number of Royal
Marines to the Devonport area from Poole. In addition to these changes in
personnel, a £150m construction project is currently underway to provide a new
facility in the dockyard114 and £21m is due to be spent on improving the
accommodation and facilities at the Stonehouse and Bickleigh Royal Marines sites
in Plymouth115. The potential employment and population changes associated with
these developments are summarized in Table 2.15 as Scenario 1.
Further to these changes, a potential worst case scenario has been suggested in
the press, with the surface ships currently based at Plymouth being moved to
Portsmouth and the Naval Base at Plymouth essentially closing within five years116.
The idea that the base may close has been strongly denied by the Defence
Minister117 and it seems that the amphibious ships and FOST at least will remain,
with no announcements made about any future changes to the base-porting of the
frigates. For the purposes of this study therefore, a worse case scenario has been
modelled, with both the submarines and frigates moving away from Plymouth (Table
2.15 Scenario 2).
2008
2010
2012
2014
Scenario 1: Planned Changes
Estimated Naval Base & Dockyard
12,300 11,800 11,800 11,600
employment
-100
0
-100
Scenario 2: Worst Case
Estimated Naval Base & Dockyard
12,300 11,200 10,300 9,300
employment
-400
-700
-1,200
118
Table 2.15. Employment and population change scenarios for Plymouth .
2016
2020
11,500 11,200
-200
-300
9,200
8,900
-1,300
-1,500
Both scenarios modelled for this area show a small positive impact on GVA and FTE
employment for 2008 resulting from the investment in the new dockyard facility
(Figure 2.20). The maximum projected impact on GVA and FTE employment as a
result of this construction phase are £10m and around 300 jobs respectively in 2009,
with the impact reducing to 2012119.
113
115
West. January 2009.
116
117
118
In Scenario 1 for 2012, the population impacts of the submarine crew moving away and Royal Marines
personnel moving to Plymouth approximately balance out, leading to the zero impact for this year.
119
Based on an assumed front-loaded investment profile of the total £150m.
114
60
50
0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
"Planned
Changes"
£2001m
-50
Worst
Case
-100
-150
-200
-250
1
0
2006
'000s
-1
-2
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
"Planned
Changes"
Worst
Case
-3
-4
-5
-6
Figure 2.20. Projected GVA and FTE employment differences to base forecast as a result of
the military changes in the Plymouth local economic area.
Following the planned changes scenario (Scenario 1), GVA is projected to decline
relative to the base forecast by around £90m by 2020, a decrease of just over 1% of
the total for the area (Table 2.16 and Figure 2.20). The impact on FTE employment
is projected to be around 2,000 FTE jobs below the base forecast by 2020, again
just over 1% of the base forecast total. Around 1,100 of these job losses are direct,
reflecting the reduction in submarine crew employment in the area and the loss of
around 300 jobs at the civilian dockyard, somewhat offset by the probable small
increase in Royal Marines personnel. A further 900 indirect job losses are projected.
The projected impact on real household disposable income is around £54m by
2020, around 0.7% below the base forecast total.
The industrial element of the dockyard is thought to have significantly closer links to
the local economy than is typical for military bases120, and so the impact of the loss
120
Around £37m was spent by the Naval Base and Dockyard on over 420 local suppliers in Devon and
Cornwall in tax year 04/05 (The Economic Impact of Devonport Dockyard and Naval Base, Dr Paul Bishop,
South West Economy Centre, 2005.), while for the majority of bases without the industrial element (i.e. the
dockyard), expenditure on local suppliers is thought to be relatively low.
61
of dockyard jobs in terms of GVA and indirect employment is projected to be greater
than for the same number of military jobs (Figure 2.21 - in 2012 both submarine
crew employment and employment at the civilian dockyard are modelled as being
around 300 jobs below the current level, but the GVA impact relating to the change
in dockyard employment is significantly greater. The impact of the submarine crew
employment reductions is greater by 2020, when the submarine crew employment
reduction is three times greater than the modelled reduction in dockyard
employment).
In the event of the potential worst case scenario, with the frigates also leaving
Plymouth, the projected negative impact on local GVA is around £220m compared
to the base forecast by 2020, with an FTE employment impact of around 5,400 jobs
and impact on real household disposable income of around £145m (Table 2.16 and
Figure 2.20). These are the largest proportional impacts of any of the military
changes studied, at almost -3% of the total local GVA and FTE employment and
almost -2% of real household disposable income. Around 3,400 of the projected job
losses to the area are direct (with the majority of these relating to frigate crew
leaving the area), with a further 2,000 or so indirect. The impacts resulting from the
potential loss of the frigate crew employment to the local economic area are greater
than the impacts of all the other military changes in this area combined (Figure 2.21)
due to the relatively large direct employment loss.
62
2009
% Difference
to base
projection
Scenario 1: Planned Change
0
Population impact
Total difference
-28
-0.4%
2012 % Difference
to base
projection
2020
-45
0
2
-43
-90
-2
0
-92
-1
0
0
Population impact
0
Construction impact 0.3
Total difference
-0.6
-0.3%
-1
-0.5
Total indirect
-0.1
-0.5
impact
0
Population impact
Total difference
-14
-0.2%
-22
-1
1
-22
-1
Population impact
Total difference
-38
-0.6
-113
-3
2
-115
-3.1
0
-0.1
Population impact
0
Construction impact 0.3
Total difference
-0.9
-0.5%
-3.1
-2
Total indirect
-0.3
-1.2
impact
-0.6%
-0.5%
-2
0
0
-2
-1.1
-0.9
% Difference
to base
projection
-1.1%
-1.1%
-0.3%
-51
-3
0
-54
-0.7%
-1.7%
-213
-7
0
-220
-2.7%
-1.7%
-5.3
-0.1
0
-5.4
-3.4
-2
-2.9%
-67
-131
-1
-6
-14
Population impact
1
0
Total difference
-20
-0.3%
-71
-1%
-145
-1.8%
a result of the Plymouth area military changes compared to base projections (forecasts
63
Components of GVA impact - Scenario 1
20
Royal Marines personnel and
dependants population increase
0
2009
2012
2020
Submarine crew and
dependants population
reduction
Submarine crew employment
reductions
-20
£2001m
Royal Marines employment
increase
-40
Babcock employment
reductions
-60
Royal Marines new facility
construction
-80
New dockyard facility
construction
-100
Components of GVA impact - Scenario 2
0
2009
-40
£2001m
-80
-120
2012
2020
Frigate crew personnel and
reduction
Frigate crew employment
reduction
Royal Marines personnel and
dependants population increase
Royal Marines employment
increase
Submarine crew and
reduction
Submarine crew employment
reductions
Babcock employment
reductions
-160
Royal Marines new facility
construction
-200
New dockyard facility
construction
-240
Figure 2.21. Components of GVA change for the Plymouth local economic area Scenarios
1 and 2.
64
D. Scale of economic impact for the Plymouth Unitary Authority Area
The local economic area defined for the Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard
includes moderately large parts of southern Devon and north eastern Cornwall, but
only relatively small employment centres outside of the City of Plymouth Unitary
Authority area. This authority area contains around two thirds of the total
employment in the defined local economic area. The scale of the projected
economic impacts in terms of GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable
income is between 60% and 85% higher for the City of Plymouth, compared to the
wider local economic area, reaching almost -2% of total GVA and FTE employment
and -1.2% of real household disposable income for the planned changes scenario
and -4.6% of overall GVA, -4.8% of FTE employment and around -3.3% of real
household disposable income for the potential worst case scenario (Table 2.17).
2009
2012
projection at 2020
-28
-43
-38
-115
-92
-220
-1.9%
-4.6%
-0.6
-1
-0.9
-3.1
-2
-5.4
-1.8%
-4.8%
-14
-22
-54
-1.2%
-20
-71
-145 -3.3%
Table 2.17. GVA, FTE employment and real household disposable income impacts of the
Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard change scenarios for the City of Plymouth Unitary
Authority area.
65
2.3.4. Regional economic significance
2.3.4.i Combined impacts of the planned and potential military changes in the
South West region
All the military sites in the region at which personnel changes and construction
phases are expected are listed in Table 2.18, with the type of change indicated121.
The modelling results for those areas not discussed in the preceding sections are
summarized in Appendix C. For a number of these sites, a range of scenarios has
been modelled to allow for uncertainty in the nature and timing of future changes (as
set out in the above sections). A best and worst case scenario have therefore been
developed for the region as a whole, with employment and population changes as
set out in Table 2.19. For the best case scenario, a future military use of RAF
Lyneham is assumed, along with a civilian employment use of Wilton, the movement
of backfill units into Blandford Camp and no movement of surface ships away from
Plymouth. The worst case scenario assumes the opposite, with no re-use of
Lyneham or employment re-use of Wilton, the closure of Blandford Camp and the
frigates currently based at Plymouth moving away.
Site
Salisbury Plain
area
RAF Lyneham
Wilton and
Upavon HQ’s
Corsham
Abbey Wood
Local Authority
Area
Wiltshire
Employment
Change
Increase
Population
Change
Increase
Wiltshire
Wiltshire
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Decrease
Wiltshire
South
Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire
Increase
Increase
Construction
Phase
Yes
Yes
Yes
Decrease
Decrease
RAF Innsworth /
Imjin Barracks*
Dorset
Decrease
Decrease
Blandford Camp
City of Plymouth
Decrease
Decrease
Yes
Plymouth Naval
Base and
Dockyard
Devon
Increase
Increase
Chivenor
Cornwall
Decrease
Decrease
RAF St Mawgan
Poole
Yes
Royal Marines
Poole
Somerset
Yes
RNAS Yeovilton
Cornwall
Yes
RNAS Culdrose
Table 2.18. Military changes in the South West region.
* The movement of army personnel into the newly formed Imjin Barracks goes some way
toward offsetting the decrease in employment and population as a result of the withdrawal
of the RAF from Innsworth, but it does not offset it completely.
The estimated combined annual investment profile from the seven known
construction phases listed in Table 2.18 above peaks at around £260-£280m in
2008-2009 and decreases to zero after 2016 (Table 2.19). This only includes major
new military base (and civilian dockyard) infrastructure projects and not
maintenance (for example the Single Living Accommodation Modernization (SLAM)
121
Summarized from Section 2.2
66
programme) or investment in the construction of new married quarters homes. As
the profile only includes currently announced construction phases, new construction
investment could well be announced at a later date which would alter it significantly.
SW region
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2020
combined
military changes
Employment change (‘000s)
Best case
1.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.0
1.3
3.2
3.0
2.7
Worst case
1.5
2.6
2.5
1.4
1.0
-2.2 -4.7 -4.8 -5.1
Population change (‘000s)
Best case
1.0
2.0
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.6
3.6
3.5
3.3
Worst case
1.0
2.0
2.0
1.8
1.2
0.6
-1.4 -2.8 -3.0
Estimated construction investment (£m)
Total
190
280
260
200
170
120
24
3
0
Table 2.19. Combined employment and population change scenarios and estimated
construction investment profile for the South West region.
The increases in employment and construction investment at the Salisbury Plain
garrisons, Abbey Wood and Corsham, somewhat offset by decreases in
employment at Plymouth and Innsworth, are projected to cause increases in GVA of
£120m-£150m, FTE employment of around 6,000 jobs and real household
disposable income of £130-150m by 2010, relative to the base economic forecast
for the region (Table 2.20 and Figure 2.22). Following the best case scenario, with a
civilian employment re-use of Wilton, military re-use of Lyneham and backfill of
Blandford, the projected overall impacts are an increase of around £250m GVA,
8,000 FTE jobs and £230m real household disposable income relative to the base
forecast from 2014 onward, amounting to 0.2% to 0.3% of the regional totals.
2010
2013
projection at 2020
Best case
150
170
260 0.2%
Worst case
120
-90
-180 -0.2%
Best case
6.5
5.4
7.9
0.3%
Worst case
5.5
-2.1
-4.1 -0.2%
Best case
150
140
230 0.2%
Worst case
130
-30
-110 -0.1%
a result of all planned and potential military changes in the South West region, compared to
base projections (forecasts developed with the aid of CE/IER LEFM software).
If these re-uses do not occur and the frigate fleet leaves Plymouth (the worst case
scenario), the positive impacts are outweighed by the negative by 2012 (Figure
2.22). The projected long-term impact of this scenario is a loss of £150m-£200m
67
GVA, around 4,000 FTE jobs and around £100m real household disposable income
by 2020 compared to the base forecast, around -0.1 to -0.2% of the regional totals.
There is therefore a large difference between the outcomes of the potential best and
worst case scenarios, on the scale of around £450m GVA and 12,000 FTE jobs.
Within this range, three potential intermediate scenarios are shown on Figure 2.22,
with the projected impacts for different combinations of site re-uses. This shows
that, depending on decisions made relating to individual sites, the combined impacts
may be significantly positive, significantly negative or almost zero at the regional
level.
SW region total GVA impact
Best Case
300
250
200
SPSG + Abbey Wood
+ Corsham –
Innsworth – St
Mawgan - Plymouth
Civilian
re-use of
Wilton
Lyneham
empty
Re-use of
Lyneham
Worst Case
150
SPSG
£2001m
100
50
0
2006
-50
Intermediate 1 (noreuse of Wilton)
Greater Plymouth
personnel losses
Closure of
Blandford
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
No civilian
re-use of
Wilton
-100
Intermediate 3 (no reuse of Wilton or
Lyneham and no
backfill units at
Blandford)
Continuing personnel losses
in Plymouth
-150
Lyneham)
-200
SW region total FTE employment impact
Best Case
10.0
8.0
Worst Case
6.0
'000's
4.0
Intermediate 1 (noreuse of Wilton)
2.0
0.0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Lyneham)
-2.0
-4.0
-6.0
Lyneham and no
backfill units at
Blandford)
result of the planned and potential military changes in the South West region.
68
2.3.4. ii Overall economic significance of the military presence in the region
To get an appreciation for the overall economic significance of the direct, defencerelated122 employment in the region, all 56,000 direct military and defence civil
service jobs were subtracted from the region-scale economic model, along with the
estimated total population in military accommodation. This analysis suggests that
employment related to the military sites contributes around £2bn GVA123 to the
regional economy, just over 2% of the regional total, and supports an additional
24,000 indirect jobs (Table 2.21). This indirect employment would include military
base services contractors as well as employment in general services, retail, health
and other sectors and presumably also includes partial support of defence industry
employment in the region.
South West regional military economic dependence
Direct military and defence civil service
56,000
employment
Supported indirect FTE employment
24,000
Total military dependant FTE employment
80,000
GVA contribution (£2001m)
2,000
Table 2.21. Contribution of military dependant employment to the South West economy.
An important point to note is that this analysis does not include an assessment of
the economic significance of the employment in industry and commerce directly
supported by MoD expenditure in the region. A preliminary analysis suggests that
these 37,000 jobs124 may support a further around 30,000 jobs and contribute
around £3bn GVA to the regional economy.
122
Not including the defence industry
2001 prices
124
37,000 direct full time jobs in industry or commerce are estimated to be supported by MoD expenditure in
the South West region - UK Defence Statistics 2007.
123
69
2.4. Summary and Significance of Findings
This section has set out to gauge the economic significance of the military changes
in the South West region and, like all such studies the findings have in part been
determined by the information and analytical tools available. It does not represent
the last word on this topic, if for no other reason than that military plans are prone to
change.
An important point to note is that the analysis has benefited enormously from direct
access to information regarding the military presence, future plans and local
expenditure. This alone means that the study can be considered more authoritative
than would otherwise been the case. Furthermore, the principal tool of analysis,
LEFM, while having its limitations, critically allows for modifications to be made to
modelled local economic linkages. This allows the distinct nature of military bases to
be taken into account and, while there is room for improvement in this area, this
approach is considered to represent an advance in the analysis of the economic
impacts of military changes.
As a consistent methodology has been applied throughout the region, this has
allowed, on the basis of current information, both the absolute and relative impacts
of planned and prospective changes to be gauged. The headline impacts for the
areas studied in detail are:
• Salisbury Plain Area personnel increases
o Maximum impact: +£140m GVA & 5,000 FTE jobs
• RAF Lyneham closure
o No re-use: -£90m GVA & 3,400 FTE jobs
o Military re-use: negligible long-term impact
o Civilian re-use: -£26m GVA & 2,100 FTE jobs
• Wilton area
o Impact of HQ post reductions: -£9m GVA & 400 FTE jobs
o Potential civilian re-use: <+£112m GVA & 2,650 FTE jobs
• Wiltshire Local Authority Area combined impacts
o Best case: +£220m GVA & 4,600 FTE jobs
o Worst case: -£35m GVA & 1,800 FTE jobs
• Blandford Camp and Dorset Local Authority Area
o Potential base closure: -£74m GVA & 3,100 FTE jobs
o Relocation of Royal School of Signals with no backfill: -£50m GVA &
2,000 FTE jobs
o Relocation of Royal School of Signals with backfill units: -£21m GVA &
900 FTE jobs
• Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard
o “Planned changes”: -£92m GVA & 2,000 FTE jobs
o Worst case scenario: -£220m GVA & 5,400 FTE jobs
The combined impacts of all planned and potential military changes in the South
West have also been examined at regional level, with a best and worst case
scenario developed to allow for uncertainty in the nature and timing of future
changes.
70
In the short term, positive impacts are projected with increases in GVA of £120m£150m and FTE employment of around 6,000 jobs by 2010, relative to the base
economic forecast for the region. In the longer term, there is a large difference
between the outcomes of the potential best and worst case scenarios, as set out
below:
•
•
Best case: GVA impact +£250m; FTE impact +8,000 jobs
Worst case: GVA impact -£200m; FTE impact -4,000 jobs
Finally, as stated above, military plans will continue to evolve. As such, this study
will become out of date, although the use of multiple scenarios may mean that some
scenarios will be realised while others fall by the wayside. It is considered, however,
that the importance of this study lies not only in its findings but also in beginning to
develop a way forward in “maintaining a finger on the pulse”. Channels of
communication have been opened and a methodology sketched out which could, if
necessary, allow us to fairly rapidly assess the implications of future developments.
Because the one thing we can be sure of is that plans will not stand still.
71
3. Military Service Leavers in the South West Region
3.1. Introduction
The scale of the military presence in the South West is such that it constitutes one of
the defining characteristics of the region, whilst providing a substantial contribution
to the regional economy. A consequence of this is that there is likely to be a large
and continuous stream of armed forces leavers from within the region. However, to
date, no work has been undertaken to gauge the scale and significance of these
outflows.
This section addresses this issue by, first, deriving estimates of the number of
military leavers within the local authority areas of the region, and the region as a
whole. The section goes on to combine these findings with information relating
directly to armed forces leavers within the region, to build up a picture of what
numbers and proportion of these leavers would consider settling within the South
West, or its constituent parts. Finally, it considers the employment aspirations of
leavers in the light of recent and future labour demands.
Of course, although the investigation is as up-to-date as possible, the recent
downturn in the UK economy is likely to mean that current demands for labour are
substantially below those of even a few months ago. Over the long-term, too, there
may be some repercussions for the economic forecasts that have been incorporated
into the study. It is stressed, however, that this study looks ahead for a much longer
period than recessionary conditions are likely to endure. Consequently, whilst it
would clearly be wrong to ignore the likely significance of these conditions over the
next year or two, at the same time it would be wrong to be over-influenced by
present circumstances.
72
3.2 Service leaver estimates
3.2.1. Total service leavers by local authority area
The number of military personnel leaving the services each year has been estimated
for each of the local authority areas within the South West region, based on the
numbers of personnel currently stationed in each area and the national average
rates of outflow from the services125 (Figure 3.1). The estimated total number of
service leavers in the South West region is around 4,000 per year. By far the highest
numbers of service leavers are focussed in Wiltshire (around 1,600 per year),
reflecting the particularly high numbers of largely army personnel based in the
county (Figure 3.2). The second highest incidence of service leavers is found in
Plymouth (around 700 per year). The estimate for this area has been separated into
leavers associated with military bases in Plymouth and leavers associated with the
operational ships and submarines with their home port in the city (shown in yellow in
Figure 3.1). Devon, Cornwall, Dorset and Somerset are estimated to have between
around 200 and 400 service leavers per year, Gloucestershire around 150, and Bath
and NE Somerset, the City of Bristol, South Gloucestershire and Poole less than
100.
Total estimated service leavers per year
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Po
ol
e
So
m
er
se
t
To
rb
ay
No
rth
De
vo
n
Do
G
rs
lo
et
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Ba
S
th
om
&
er
NE
se
t
So
m
er
Ci
se
ty
t
of
Br
ist
ol
So
P
ut
lym
h
ou
G
lo
th
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Sw
in
do
Bo
n
ur
ne
m
ou
th
al
l
Co
rn
w
W
il t
sh
ir e
0
Figure 3.1. Total estimated number of service leavers per year in the local authority areas of
the South West region. Those service leavers associated with operational ships/submarines
based in Plymouth are indicated in yellow.
The annual number of service leavers is small in comparison to the size of the
overall labour force126 at both local authority and regional level, being less than 1%
in all areas.
125
126
DASA TSP 19. UK Regular Forces Intake and Outflow by age.
Economically active working age population (from the Annual Population Survey) 73
3.2.2. Service leavers by rank and age
The national outflow averages also allow the estimation of the numbers of service
leavers by rank and age (Figure 3.2). The vast majority of leavers are from junior
(other) ranks127 with relatively few officers, reflecting the organisational structure of
the military. In most local authority areas, it is estimated that less than 60 officers
leave the services annually, while in Wiltshire this figure is over 200, equating to
around 44% of the regional total.
Estimated service leavers per year by rank
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Officers
800
Other
Ranks
600
400
200
Po
ol
e
Do
rs
G
et
lo
uc
es
ts
hi
re
So
Ba
m
th
er
&
se
NE
t
So
m
er
se
Ci
t
ty
of
Br
ist
ol
Pl
So
y
m
ut
ou
h
G
th
lo
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Sw
in
do
Bo
n
ur
ne
m
ou
th
De
vo
n
al
l
Co
rn
w
W
ilt
sh
ir e
0
Figure 3.2. Estimated number of service leavers by rank throughout the region compared to
the numbers of personnel stationed in each local authority area.
127
Other ranks – Private (Army/Marines)/Ordinary Rate (Navy)/Leading Aircraftmen (RAF) to Warrant
Officer; Officers - Second Lieutenant (Army/Marines)/Midshipman (Navy)/Pilot Officer (RAF) and above
74
For officers, the majority of leavers are between the age of 25 and 54 (Figure 3.3),
while for the more junior ranks there is an approximately even split between the 16
to 24 and 25 to 54 age bands (with variation depending on which is the dominant
service in the area, with army leavers being somewhat younger than navy leavers).
Estimated service leavers per year, by age: Officers
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
16-24
25-54
or
se
t
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Ba
S
th
om
&
er
N
se
E
t
So
m
er
C
se
ity
t
of
Br
ist
ol
So
Pl
ut
y
m
h
ou
G
lo
th
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Sw
in
do
Bo
n
ur
ne
m
ou
th
Po
ol
e
D
D
ev
on
l
wa
l
or
n
G
lo
C
W
ilt
sh
ire
55+
Estimated service leavers per year by age: Other Ranks
800
700
600
500
16-24
25-54
55+
400
300
200
re
m
&
er
N
se
E
t
So
m
er
C
se
ity
t
of
Br
ist
ol
So
Pl
ut
y
m
h
ou
G
lo
th
uc
es
ts
hi
re
Sw
in
do
Bo
n
ur
ne
m
ou
th
Po
ol
e
Ba
th
So
ts
hi
uc
es
or
se
t
G
lo
D
ev
on
D
l
wa
l
or
n
C
W
ilt
sh
ire
100
0
Figure 3.3. Estimated number of service leavers by rank and age.
A survey of service leavers from across the country, carried out by the National
Audit Office, indicates that most personnel leave the services because they have
reached the end of their period of engagement or have taken voluntary early
release. Only around 7% of respondents to their survey were medically discharged
and around 2% left under compulsory discharge128.
128
Ministry of Defence. Leaving the Service. National Audit Office. 27 July 2007. Around 5,000 survey responses were received from personnel who left the services in the 2 years prior to October 2006. The NAO recognise that there may be a degree of bias, as those doing well on leaving the services may be more likely to respond to the survey. 75
3.3. Desired destinations of service leavers
3.3.1. Survey of service leavers in the South West
A survey of military personnel intending to leave the services has been carried out
for this study at the two Career Transition Partnership Regional Resettlement
Centres in the South West (in Tidworth and Plymouth)129. From just over 200
responses, 108 personnel indicated that they are currently serving in the region, 14
indicated that they were serving outside of the region and 79 did not give a location.
The breakdown of responses by service and rank for those personnel based in the
South West region is shown in Figure 3.4, along with the location of current posting.
Comparing this to the actual numbers of personnel stationed in each local authority
area (Figure 3.5) shows a high degree of similarity, suggesting that the survey has
captured a representative section of military personnel in the region.
Proportion of respondents from each service
Proportion of respondents by rank
6%
16%
43%
Army
Navy/Marines
Officer
RAF
Other Rank
41%
94%
Location of current posting
50
45
40
Responses
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Wiltshire
City of
Bristol
Somerset
Poole
Dorset
Plymouth
Devon
Cornwall
Figure 3.4. Survey responses by service and rank and location of current posting for
personnel who indicated they were currently serving in the South West region.
129
The Career Transition Partnership is contracted by the MoD to provide resettlement services to military
service leavers.
76
Stationed personnel (2008)
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
So
of
Br
is
to
m l
er
se
t
Po
ol
e
D
or
se
Pl
ym t
ou
th
D
ev
on
C
G
o
lo
So
r
uc nw
ut
a
es
h
G
te ll
rs
Ba lou
ce hire
th
st
&
er
N
s
E
So hire
m
er
s
Sw et
B o i nd
ur
o
ne n
m
ou
th
C
ity
W
ilt
sh
ire
-
Figure 3.5. Numbers of military personnel currently stationed in each local authority area
within the South West (DASA 2008).
3.3.2. Areas service leavers wish to settle
Of survey respondents currently stationed in the South West, 61% would consider
settling somewhere in the region on leaving the services. Around 20% would
consider settling in Wiltshire and just over 10% in Plymouth and Devon, with around
5% or less considering settling in the other local authority areas of the region (Figure
3.6). This generally reflects the areas in which the largest numbers of military
personnel are stationed. There are, however some local variations.
For example, of the 44 respondents who said they were currently based in Wiltshire,
around 40% would settle in Wiltshire, 14% in Swindon, 7% in Gloucestershire and
5% in Bristol. Those personnel indicating that they would settle in Swindon,
Gloucestershire and Bristol are largely based at RAF Lyneham and Corsham in
North Wiltshire. Personnel are typically based at these sites for relatively long
periods and are more likely than average to own their own homes. It therefore
seems likely that these survey respondents are already settled in these areas. Of
the 21 respondents who said they were based in Plymouth, 48% would settle in
Plymouth, 38% in Devon and 14% in Cornwall. Again, it is likely that this reflects a
number of personnel stationed in Plymouth who are already settled in the
surrounding counties. There is very little difference in response between the
personnel associated with operational ships and personnel stationed at bases in
Plymouth, with both indicating that almost 70% would settle somewhere in the South
West region. The personnel associated with operational ships show a somewhat
higher percentage who would settle in the city of Plymouth compared to Devon and
Cornwall. Of the 13 respondents who said they were based in Devon, only 15%
would consider staying in the county, with the largest proportion (23%) considering
settling in Bristol. Of respondents in Dorset, 45% would consider settling there, with
13% considering settling in Wiltshire and 9% in Somerset.
77
For Wiltshire, Plymouth and Dorset, these data suggest that of those personnel who
would settle in the South West region, the largest proportion would settle in county
where they were last based. There are also significant proportions wishing to settle
in the surrounding counties, presumably largely reflecting personnel who live offbase in these areas while still serving. There is also a noticeable draw toward the
major cities of Swindon and Bristol, suggesting that some leavers may be drawn
towards the major regional centres, even though these may be at some distance
from where they are based.
Would you consider living in:
25
20
%
15
10
5
De
vo
n
Co
rn
w
al
l
Po
Bo
ol
ur
e
ne
m
ou
th
Pl
ym
ou
th
W
i lt
sh
ir e
Sw
G
in
lo
So
do
uc
ut
n
es
h
te
G
rs
lo
hi
uc
re
es
te
rs
hi
Ba
re
th
&
Br
NE
ist
ol
So
m
No
er
rth
se
t
So
m
er
se
So
t
m
er
se
t
Do
rs
et
0
Figure 3.6. Percentage of respondents currently based in the South West region who would
consider settling in each local authority area.
78
3.3.3. Variation in areas service leavers wish to settle by service and rank
For army officers, Wiltshire and Dorset are the only locations listed for current
postings and also the only locations where these personnel have indicated they
would consider settling within the South West region (Figure 3.7)130. More than half
of these personnel would consider settling in the South West region. Respondents
from more junior ranks within the army are also mostly currently located in Wiltshire
and Dorset. The majority do not wish to settle in the South West region, but just over
20% would settle in Wiltshire and around 10% would settle in Dorset.
For the navy, the limited number of survey responses from officers showed
respondents located in Plymouth, Devon and Bristol131 (Figure 3.8). Over half
express a desire to settle in the South West, with the most popular locations being
Wiltshire and Bath and NE Somerset, where none of the respondents have indicated
they are currently stationed. There are however, a number of naval officers
stationed in both of these counties and it is possible that a number of survey
respondents who did not give a location are based in these areas. Naval officers
have also indicated a more limited desire to settle in Plymouth, Devon, Cornwall,
Bristol, Somerset and North Somerset. Respondents from other naval ranks are
mainly currently based in Plymouth with lesser numbers in Devon, Somerset and
Cornwall. Just over 60% would consider settling in the South West region, mostly in
Devon, Plymouth and Somerset, around the main naval base and marines sites.
Of respondents currently serving with the RAF, most are currently based in
Wiltshire, with some in Cornwall and Dorset and in areas outside of the South
West132 (Figure 3.9). In contrast to the other services, the vast majority of leavers
(95%) would consider settling somewhere in South West region. The largest number
of personnel indicated that they would consider settling in Wiltshire (25%), with the
next largest proportions indicating they would settle in Swindon and Gloucestershire,
presumably reflecting personnel from Lyneham and Corsham already settled in
these areas as discussed above. Between 2 and 6% of respondents indicate that
they would settle in each of the other counties of the region, with the exception of
Devon.
130
Although limited survey responses were received from officers. National figures suggest that few personnel are actually stationed within the City of Bristol local authority area and it is likely that the survey respondents who said there are based in Bristol may in fact be stationed in South Gloucestershire at Abbey Wood. 132
There were insufficient survey responses to consider the RAF officers and other ranks separately, presumably due to the lower numbers of RAF personnel stationed in the South West region compared to the
army and navy. 131
79
ilt
sh
ir
G
l Sw e
ut ouc ind
h
e
o
s
G
lo ter n
u c sh
es ire
Ba
te
rs
th
hi
&
r
N
Br e
E
i
st
S
o
N
or om l
th
e
So rse
m t
e
S o r se
m t
er
se
D t
or
se
Bo P t
ur ool
ne e
m
o
Pl uth
ym
ou
t
D h
ev
C on
or
N nw
on al
of l
SW
So
W
%
C
Br
ist
o
D
D
h
on
l
SW
wa
l
ev
on
ou
t
or
n
N
ol
e
or
se
t
Po
Pl
ym
C
l
sh
ire
m
er
se
t
of
So
ity
W
ilt
Responses
sh
G
Sw ire
l
ut ouc in
d
h
G est on
er
lo
u c sh
es ire
Ba
te
rs
th
hi
&
re
N
B
E
ris
S
to
N
or om l
e
th
So rse
m t
e
S o r se
m t
er
se
D t
or
se
Bo P t
ur ool
ne e
m
o
Pl uth
ym
ou
t
D h
ev
o
C
or n
N nw
on al
of l
SW
So
W
ilt
%
C
Br
ist
o
D
D
h
on
l
SW
wa
l
ev
on
ou
t
or
n
N
ol
e
or
se
t
Po
Pl
ym
C
l
sh
ire
m
er
se
t
of
So
ity
W
ilt
Responses
Location of current posting:
Army Officers
4
3
2
1
0
Army Officers
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Army Other Ranks
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Army Other Ranks
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Figure 3.7. Locations of current postings of army officers and other ranks and the areas they
would consider settling on leaving the military.
80
sh
So Glo Sw ire
uc i nd
ut
h
G est on
e
lo
uc rsh
es ire
Ba
te
rs
th
hi
&
r
N
Br e
E
is
S
to
N
or om l
th
e
So rse
m t
e
So r se
m t
er
se
D t
or
se
Bo P t
ur ool
ne e
m
Pl outh
ym
ou
t
D h
ev
o
C
or n
N nwa
on
l
of l
SW
W
ilt
%
C
on
l
SW
wa
l
ev
on
or
n
N
C
D
h
et
ou
t
or
s
Pl
ym
D
t
l
ire
Br
ist
o
sh
m
er
se
of
So
ity
W
ilt
Responses
ilt
sh
So Glo Sw ire
uc i n
ut
d
h
G est on
e
lo
uc rsh
es ire
Ba
te
rs
th
hi
&
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N
Br e
E
i
s
N So tol
or
m
th
e
So rse
m t
e
S o r se
m t
er
se
D t
or
se
Bo P t
o
ur
o
ne l e
m
o
Pl uth
ym
ou
t
D h
ev
C on
or
N nw
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of l
SW
W
%
C
Br
ist
o
l
sh
ire
on
l
SW
wa
l
ev
on
or
n
N
C
D
h
et
ou
t
or
s
Pl
ym
D
m
er
se
t
of
So
ity
W
ilt
Responses
Navy Officers
4
3
2
1
0
Navy Officers
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Navy Other Ranks
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Navy Other Ranks
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Figure 3.8. Locations of current postings of navy officers and other ranks and the areas they
would consider settling on leaving the military.
81
RAF
14
Responses
12
10
8
6
4
2
SW
l
N
on
wa
l
or
n
C
D
ev
o
n
h
et
ou
t
Pl
ym
D
or
s
t
m
er
se
to
Br
is
C
ity
of
W
ilt
So
sh
ire
l
0
RAF
30
25
%
20
15
10
5
So
W
ilt
sh
Sw ire
G
lo
ut
uc i nd
h
G est on
e
lo
uc rsh
es ire
Ba
te
rs
th
hi
&
re
N
B
E
ris
N So tol
or
m
e
th
So rse
m t
e
So rse
m t
er
se
D t
or
se
Bo P t
ur ool
ne e
m
o
Pl uth
ym
ou
t
D h
ev
o
C
or n
N nw
on al
of l
SW
0
Figure 3.9. Locations of current postings of RAF personnel and the areas they would
consider settling on leaving the military.
3.3.4. Reasons for not wishing to settle in the region
Almost 40% of survey respondents currently based in the South West do not wish to
settle in the region on leaving the services. The main reason given for this, in over
60% of cases, was a desire to return to family home areas in other parts of the
country (Figure 3.10). In addition, over 20% of respondents not wishing to remain in
the region cited high house prices as an issue and almost 10% mentioned a lack of
potential civilian employment with a suitable salary or status. A lack of work in their
desired industry and limited employment opportunities for their spouse/partner seem
to be relatively limited issues.
82
Main reasons for not wishing to settle in the SW region:
70
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
Other
Limited
employment for
spouse/partner
Wish to return
to family areas
in other parts of
Country
Lack of desired
industry
Lack of desired
salary/status
High house
prices
0
Figure 3.10. Main reasons given for not wishing to settle in the South West region on
leaving the military.
There is limited evidence of variation by service, but there is some suggestion that
high house prices and the desire to return to family areas elsewhere in the country
are less significant for officers as compared to other ranks, while a lack of
employment with the desired salary/status is somewhat more significant for officers.
3.3.5. Scale of addition to labour force
If 61% of the estimated 4,000 annual service leavers in the region were to settle in
the South West, this would give around 2,400 service leavers settling in the region
each year. A possible breakdown by local authority area is given in Table 3.1, based
on the preferences shown in Figure 3.6 above133.
133
A number of respondents have selected multiple counties in which they may settle. The proportions have
therefore been applied to the estimated total 2,400 personnel who may settle in the region, rather than to the
total number of leavers so as not to overestimate the numbers in any area.
83
Possible numbers of service leavers
settling in the area each year
Wiltshire
640
Swindon
180
Gloucestershire
90
South Gloucestershire
60
Bristol
180
Bath and NE Somerset
60
North Somerset
30
Somerset
150
Dorset
150
Poole
30
Bournemouth
0
Plymouth
350
Devon
380
Cornwall
180
SW Region
~2,400
Table 3.1. Numbers of military personnel who may settle in each local authority area per
year.
Local Authority Area
Across the South West region as a whole, 2,400 service leavers is equivalent to less
than 1% of the total labour force, but around 7% of the annual increase in labour
force134 and around 15% of the annual net internal migration of people aged 16 to
64 (Table 3.2)135. Service leavers settling in a local authority area may or may not be
included in the recorded labour force increase or internal migration figures,
depending on whether they actually moved location on leaving the services or chose
to remain in the area where they were last stationed.
The above analysis of desired destinations suggests that the majority of service
leavers who settle in the region will stay in the area they were living during their last
posting. Of course, it is difficult to know how many will actually settle in the region,
but it seems possible that the number of service leavers settling in Wiltshire and
Plymouth could almost as large as the internal net migration of working age people
into these areas (Table 3.1 and 3.2)136. In this connection a key point to note is that,
whilst service leavers may form a significant component of labour force growth in
these areas, they do not register in labour force increase or annual net migration
figures. These personnel are however, newly entering into the civilian labour market
and so represent a component of civilian labour force growth that seems unlikely to
be being captured by recorded statistics.
134
The average annual increase in the total number of economically active working age people in the South
West region between 2004 and 2008 was around 38,100 (Annual Population Survey). The estimated 2,500
service leavers settling in the region is equivalent to around 7% of this total figure.
135
Internal net migration relates to migration within the UK. Between mid year 2005 and mid year 2006 the
internal net migration into the SW region was 16,800 (Office of National Statistics) with the estimated 2,500
service leavers settling in the region being equivalent to around 15% of this figure.
136
It is important to bear in mind that while the migrant totals represent the working-age migrants, they do not
represent workers as such, and are likely to include significant numbers of dependants.
84
Local Authority
Area
Annual internal net migration
of people age 16-64 (mid 2004
to mid 2005)
700
700
800
-500
Service leavers as a %
of annual 16-64 net
migration
93%
26%
11%
Wiltshire
Swindon
Gloucestershire
South
Gloucestershire
Bristol
1,200
15%
Bath and NE
-200
Somerset
North Somerset
1,700
2%
Somerset
700
21%
Dorset
2,600
6%
Poole
400
8%
Bournemouth
500
Plymouth
400
90%
Devon
3,900
10%
Cornwall
3,600
5%
SW Region
16,800
15%
Table 3.2. Annual net migration of working age people into the local authority areas of the
South West region from within the UK (ONS) and comparison to the estimated numbers of
service leavers settling in each area.
85
3.4. Civilian employment aspirations and potential to meet labour
market demands
3.4.1. Employment aspirations of service leavers
The majority of service leavers are of working age and information from the National
Audit Office survey of service leavers suggests that most find employment
quickly137. Most service leavers are therefore assumed to be economically active
and to form an addition to the civilian labour force in the areas where they choose to
settle.
Service leavers in the South West region identified a broad range of employment
sectors that they wish to enter into on leaving the military, reflecting the diverse skill
sets of military personnel (Figure 3.11 and Appendix D). The most desired areas of
employment are engineering/technical roles and the police/fire services followed by
considerable interest in managerial and IT/communications sectors,
transport/logistics, the defence industry, security/guarding, the public sector and
construction. There is also a strong desire amongst service leavers to start their own
businesses.
What type of employment would you like to enter into on leaving the service?
50
45
Responses
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
Co
ns
ul
ta
n
Co t D
ns e fe
ul
ta n ce
nt
o
IT
/C Ma the
En om na r
ge
gi
ne mu
ri
er nic a l
ai
in
t
De g /T on
fe ech s
nc
ni
e
c
In al
du
Se Po str
y
lic
cu
e
rit
y/ /Fir
G
e
Pu uar
Tr
d
a n blic ing
sp
Se
or
t/L c to
r
o
Co gis
ns tics
tru
M
a
c
Re nu f tion
a
ta
ct
il/
u
O Wh ring
ffs
ol
ho
e
r e sa l
HR
in e
du
M
/F
e
in
s
a n dic Edu tr y
al
ce
ca
/
c
/H
t
ea ar e io n
se
lt h
an c to
r
d
Sa
M fet
y
e
M
er dia
c h /P
an R
Fi
St tn e t Na
a r ss
t o /L vy
w eis
n
u
bu re
si
ne
ss
O
th
er
5
0
Figure 3.11. Areas of employment service leavers wish to enter into.
Although this survey reflects career aspirations rather than actual career paths on
entering civilian life, it does suggests considerable potential to contribute to a range
of sectors including in management and technical roles.
137
Ministry of Defence. Leaving the Service. National Audit Office. 27 July 2007. Most survey respondents
either had a job to go to on leaving the services or found one within 4 months of discharge. Around 70% of
respondents had entered full time employment. The NAO recognise that there may be a degree of bias, as those
doing well on leaving the services may be more likely to respond to the survey.
86
3.4.2. Variation in employment aspirations by service and rank
Army officers display a particular desire to enter consultancy and the defence
industry, along with preferences for the public sector and security/guarding (Figure
3.12). Army junior ranks display more mixed employment preferences, with
particular focuses on the police/fire services, transport/logistics and managerial
roles, as well as a strong desire to start their own business.
What type of employment would you like to enter into on leaving
the service?
Army Officers
6
Responses
5
4
3
2
1
C
on
s
ul
t
C ant
on D
su ef
lta en
IT
n ce
/
En C Ma t ot
o
gi m na he
ne m g r
er un eri
in ic a
D g/T ait l
ef
o
e n ech ns
ce ni
c
Se P Ind al
cu oli ust
rit ce ry
y/ /F
Tr Pu Gu ire
an b ard
sp lic in
or Se g
t/L c
C og tor
on is
M st tics
R anu ruc
t
et
a fa ion
O il/W ctu
ffs h rin
ho ol g
H
re esa
R/
in le
Fi Me
d
na d
nc ica Edu ustr
e/ l/c ca y
He ar ti
al e s o n
th e
an cto
d r
M Me Sa.
er di ..
Fi cha a/P
t
S t ne nt R
ar s N
t o s/L av
w ei y
n su
bu re
sin
es
O s
th
er
0
the service?
Army Other Ranks
20
Responses
16
12
8
4
C
on
s
ul
t
C ant
on D
su ef
lta en
IT
n ce
/
M
En Co a t ot
gi m na he
ne m g r
er un eri
in i c a
D g/T ait l
o
ef
en ech n s
ce ni
c
Se P Ind al
cu oli us
rit ce tr y
y/ /F
G
Tr Pu ua ire
an b r d
sp lic in
or Se g
t/L ct
C og or
on is
M st tic
R anu ruc s
et
t
a fa ion
O il/W ctu
ffs h rin
ho o l e g
H
R/
re sa
Fi M
in le
n a ed
d
nc i c E d us
e/ al/ uc try
He ca at
al re ion
th se
an ct
d or
S
M Me afe
er di t y
F ch a/P
St itne ant R
ar s N
t o s/L av
w ei y
n su
bu re
sin
es
O s
th
er
0
Figure 3.12. Areas of employment army service leavers wish to enter into.
Navy officers display a particular preference for managerial roles and the defence
industry (Figure 3.13), as well as defence consultancy, police/fire services and
starting their own business. Junior ranks within the navy again show more mixed
employment preferences, with the strongest inclination toward police/fire services
and engineering/technical roles.
87
on
s
ul
t
C ant
on D
su ef
lta en
IT
n ce
En /Co Ma t ot
gi m na he
n e m ge r
er un ria
i n ic
D g/T ait l
o
ef
e n ech ns
ce n i
c
Se P Ind al
u
cu ol s
r it ice tr y
y/ /F
G
Tr Pu ua ir e
an b r d
sp lic in
or S e g
t/L ct
C og o r
on is
M st tics
R anu ruc
t
et
a fa ion
O il/W ctu
ffs h rin
ho ol e g
H
re sa
R/
Fi Me
in le
na d
d
n c i c a E du us t
e/ l/c ca ry
He ar t i
a l e s on
th e
an cto
d r
M Me Sa.
er di ..
Fi cha a/P
S t t ne n t R
ar s N
t o s/L av
w ei y
n su
bu re
sin
es
O s
th
er
C
Responses
on
s
ul
t
C ant
on D
su ef
lta en
IT
n ce
/
M
En Co a t ot
gi m na he
ne m g r
er un eri
in ic al
D g/T ait
o
ef
en ech ns
ce ni
c
Se P Ind al
cu oli us
rit ce try
y/ /F
G
Tr Pu ua ire
an b r d
sp lic in
or S e g
t/L ct
C og or
on is
M st tic
R anu ruc s
et
t
a fa ion
O il/W ctu
ffs h rin
ho ol e g
H
re sa
R/
in le
Fi Me
d
na d
nc ica Edu ustr
e/ l/c ca y
He ar ti
al e s o n
th e
an cto
d r
M Me Sa.
er di ..
Fi cha a/P
t
S t ne n t R
ar s N
t o s/L av
w ei y
n su
bu re
sin
es
O s
th
er
C
Responses
the service?
Navy Officers
5
4
3
2
1
0
the service?
Navy Other Ranks
25
20
15
10
5
0
Figure 3.13. Areas of employment navy service leavers wish to enter into.
Within the RAF, officers show a broad interest across consultation, management,
IT/communications, engineering/technical and defence industry sectors, with some
interest in the public sector and transport/logistics (Figure 3.14). The more junior
ranks show a particularly strong inclination towards the engineering/technical sector
and also, to some extent, toward IT/communications.
88
What type of employment would you like to enter into on
leaving the service?
RAF Officers
4
Responses
3
2
1
C
on
su
l ta
C nt
on D
su efe
lta n
IT
nt ce
/
En Co Ma oth
gi mm na er
ne
g
er uni eri
in ca al
D g/ it
ef Te on
en c s
ce hn
I ic
Se P nd al
cu ol ust
rit ice ry
y/ /F
Tr Pu Gua ire
an b
r
sp lic din
or Se g
t/L c
C og tor
on i s
M st ti c
R anu ruc s
et
t
a f a io
O il/W ct u n
ffs h ri
ho ol ng
H
R
re es
/F
in ale
in Me
du
an d
ce ica Ed st r
/H l /c uc y
ea ar at i
lth e s on
an ec
d t or
Sa
M
M
f
er edi e ty
c
a
h
F
/
St i tn an PR
ar es t N
t o s/ a
w Le vy
n is
bu ur
si e
ne
ss
O
th
er
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
C
on
su
lta
C nt
on De
su f e
lta nc
nt e
IT
M
o
/
En Co an the
gi mm ag r
ne
e
er uni rial
i n ca
D g/T ito
ef
n
en ech s
ce nic
In a
S e P du l
o
cu lic str
r it
e y
y/ /Fi
G
re
Tr Pu uar
an bl
d
sp ic S ing
or
t/L ecto
C ogi r
on st
M str ics
an u c
R
et ufa tion
ai
c
O l/W turin
ffs ho
ho l e g
H
re sa
R/
i n le
Fi Me
d
na
di E d us
nc ca
t
u
c ry
e/
l
He /ca atio
n
al r e
th se
an cto
d
r
S
M af
M ed et
y
er
c ia
Fi ha /PR
S t t ne nt N
ar s s
t o /L avy
w eis
n
bu ure
sin
es
s
O
th
er
Responses
What type of employment would you like to enter into on leaving the
service?
RAF Other Ranks
Figure 3.14. Areas of employment RAF service leavers wish to enter into.
3.4.3. Employment demand
The National Employer Skills Survey 2007 reports around 59,000 vacancies in the
South West region at the time of their survey138. The number of vacancies and hard
to fill vacancies139 in the South West region by occupation group is shown in Figure
3.15. Almost 35% of all vacancies in the South West are hard to fill, which is the
highest level of any region in the country. Hard to fill vacancies form a particularly
high proportion of the total number of vacancies for skilled trades (56%), machine
operatives (49%) and personal services staff (42% - Figure 3.15). They also equate
138
National Employers Skills Survey 2007. Learning and Skills Council. May 2008. Employers were asked
how many vacancies they had at the time of the survey (carried out between April and July 2007), so the results
represent the number of vacancies at a single point in time.
139
The definition of hard to fill vacancies used by the NESS is “those vacancies described by employers as
being hard to fill”. The reasons for the difficulty often include skills-related issues, but may also reflect other
issues, including poor pay and conditions.
89
to around 30% of the total vacancies for managers, professionals and associate
professionals.
NESS 2007 Vacancies by Occupation
M
an
ag
er
Pr
s
As
of
es
so
si
cia
on
te
al
pr
s
of
Ad
es
si
m
on
in
is
al
tra
s
tiv
e/
cle
ric
al
Sk
ille
d
tra
Pe
de
rs
s
on
Sa
a
le
ls
s/
er
cu
vic
st
es
om
er
se
M
rv
ac
ice
in
s
e
El
op
em
er
en
at
ta
iv
es
ry
oc
cu
pa
tio
ns
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
NESS 2007 Percentage of Vacancies that are Hard
to Fill
60
50
%
40
30
20
10
M
an
ag
er
Pr
s
As
of
es
so
si
cia
on
te
al
pr
s
o
fe
Ad
ss
m
io
in
na
is
tra
ls
tiv
e/
cle
ric
al
Sk
ille
d
tra
Pe
de
rs
on
s
Sa
al
le
se
s/
cu
rv
ice
st
om
s
er
se
M
rv
ac
ice
in
s
e
El
op
em
er
en
at
ta
iv
es
ry
oc
cu
pa
tio
ns
0
Figure 3.15. Number of vacancies by occupation group in the South West region and the
percentage of these that are hard to fill. National Employers Skills Survey, 2007.
Comparison with the employment aspirations of service leavers suggests that
military service leavers may provide suitable candidates for vacancies in most
occupation groups (Table 3.3). The estimated 200 leavers settling in South West per
month140 equate to around 0.4% of total vacancies in the region and 1% of hard to
140
Estimated 2,400 service leavers settling in the region per year divided by 12.
90
fill vacancies141. Within particular occupation groups, our analysis suggests that the
monthly average flow of service leavers settling in the region may provide a number
of candidates equivalent to around 6% of the hard to fill vacancies for management
roles and around 2% for associate professional roles (Table 3.3).
Occupation
group
Estimated
monthly
leavers
suitable
for
occupation
group142
40
30
50
Estimated
Total
monthly
vacancies
leavers
(NESS
as % total
2007)
vacancies
Hard to fill
vacancies
(NESS
2007)
Estimated
monthly
leavers as
% hard to
fill
vacancies
Managers
2,400
2%
700
6%
Professionals
6,500
<1%
2,000
1%
Associate
6,600
1%
2,000
2%
Professionals
Admin/clerical
10
7,400
<1%
2,000
1%
Skilled trades
40
6,800
1%
3,800
1%
Personal
10
6,600
<1%
2,800
<1%
services
Sales/customer 0
9,400
0%
1,800
0%
services
Plant/machine
20
4,500
<1%
2,400
1%
operatives
Elementary
10
8,600
<1%
2,900
<1%
occupations
Table 3.3. Estimated monthly number of service leavers settling in the South West region
who may provide suitable candidates for vacancies across the range of occupation groups
compared to the total number of vacancies and hard to fill vacancies in these groups.
Service leavers may also contribute significant numbers to niche sectors. For
example, within our survey several predominantly naval personnel expressed a
desire to work in the offshore industry in a range of roles including divers and
remote vehicle operators.
The National Employers Skills Survey 2007 further indicates that the skills that
employers in the South West region find most difficult to obtain from applicants are
technical, practical and job-specific skills (Figure 3.16). Oral and written
communication skills, interpersonal skills (team working and customer handling) and
problem solving skills also appear to be particularly hard to obtain. The employment
aspirations of service leavers and the nature of military work (see Appendix D for
examples of service leaver skills and experience) suggest that these are areas
where service leavers may be able to provide a particular contribution.
141
Assuming that the numbers of vacancies in the National Employer Skills Survey are equivalent to a monthly
average.
142
Estimated by assigning occupation groups to the employment sectors preferred by personnel who have
indicated that they would settle in the South West region. Where more than one occupation group is assigned to
one of the survey employment sectors, an estimated proportional split has been applied.
91
NESS 2007 Skills found difficult to obtain from
applicants
IT
G
en
er
al
IT
O
p
us
ro
ra
W l co fes er
s
rit
te mm ion
n
al
co uni
c
C mm atio
us
to unic n
m
er atio
n
Te han
d
lin
F o am
g
w
re
or
ig
ki
n
Pr lan ng
ob
g
le uag
m
e
M solv
an
i
ag n g
em
e
N
Te
um nt
ch
er
ni
ac
ca
y
Li
l,
pr
O tera
ac
ff
tic ice cy
al
ad
,j
m
o
in
S a bR
le spe
el
ev s/m ci
fic
an
a
t q rke
tin
P e ua
li
g
rs
on fica
tio
al
n
at
tri s
bu
te
s
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Figure 3.16.Skills that employers in the South West region report to be difficult to obtain
from applicants. National Employers Skills Survey, 2007.
3.4.4. Potential future employment demand
A long-term economic forecast for the South West region143 has been used to allow
potential changes in employment in the region to be examined. The forecast
suggests a considerable growth in employment/demand for employees in a number
of largely services sectors, as well as a decline across base economic and
engineering/electronics sectors (Figure 3.17). In terms of occupation types, the
largest projected growth is for managers and proprietors, with substantial growth in
a number of other occupations including science/technical professionals and
protective services occupations.
Of the range of employment sectors preferred by service leavers, some are
projected to see growth in employment and others decline. Specifically, service
leavers display a particular interest in the engineering/technical sector, which is
projected to decline. In contrast, areas of forecast employment growth where service
leavers may make a significant contribution are managerial and protective services
occupations. A key point to note, however, is that the expected employment growth
across the “growth sectors” substantially outweighs the anticipated employment
decline across the remaining sectors; and the same is true for those sectors in
which service personnel are likely to have a particular aptitude.
143
Warwick University Institute for Economic Research/Cambridge Econometrics Local Economy Forecasting
model set up for the South West region.
92
Modelled change in employment by industry 2008 to 2020
Ag
ric
ul
tu
re
O
e
il &
Fo O
C tc
G
o
T e od th as al
xt D er et
. rin M c
Cl k ini
Pr
n
o
in W th. & T g
tin oo & ob
g d L .
& & ea
Pu P th
Ph Ma blis ape
a r nu h i r
C m f . ng
R h ac F u
N ub em eut els
o n b i c ic
-M er als als
et & P ne
. M la s
Ba in. stic
s P s
M
e c M i c M ro d
h. eta e s.
En l G tal
El
ec
g o s
. E E ine ods
ng lec eri
n
O M . & tron g
th ot In ic
. T o r st s
ra Ve rum
ns h .
p ic
M . Eq l e s
an u
u ip
E f. .
G lec nes
W as tric
at S it y
C er upp
on Su ly
s p
D t ru ply
i s ct
H
tri io
ot
La els R but n
nd & et ion
T C ai
W ran at ling
at s eri
er po ng
C A Tra rt e
o i
t
Ba mmr T nsp c
nk u ran ort
in nic sp
g a or
C
& t io t
om
F n
pu I ina s
tin nsu nc
O P g ra e
S n
th
Pu er rof. erv ce
bl Bu Se ice
ic s. r s
Ad S vic
H
m erv es
ea
in ic
lth
. e
& Ed & D s
So u e
M ci cat f.
is al io
c. W n
Se o
rv rk
ic
es
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
-10,000
-15,000
Modelled change in employment by occupation 2008 to 2020
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
-5,000
Co
M
a n r po
a
Sc
g ra
ie e rs te
M
nc
a
e/ an
Te d na g
ch Pr o er
Pr pri s
H
Te ea lt ofe eto
ss r s
Bu ac h
sin hin Pro ion
es g/ fes als
Re
s/
sio
P
Sc ub sea na
r c ls
i e li c
h
nc
s
P
e er
He As vic rof.
e
so
al
P
Pr th A cia rof
te
.
o
s
Pr
Cu tect so
cia of
i
v
l
t
Bu ur
e
.
t
s/ e /M Se e P
P
Ad u b ed rvic rof.
e
li
ia
m
O
in c S /S
e r po ccs
&
Se C l v. A r t O
cr eric ss cc
et
o
s
a a
Sk ria l O c c P
ille l & cu rof
.
d
R p
Sk Ag ela atio
n
ille ric te
d s
u
d
Sk M ltur Oc
e
cs
a
ille ta
l
l/E Tr a
d
Co le
de
c
Ca
s
n
r in O str T ra
t
u
h
d
g
c
e
e
t
P
Le e r r Sk . Tr s
a
is so
i
na lled de s
ur
e/
O l Se Tra
th
de
r
Cu
Pe vic
s
st
o m Sa rs e O
e r le s Se ccs
r
Pr
S
O v
oc e rv cc Oc
e s ic
up cs
e
s
a
El Tra Pla Occ tion
em ns
nt
up s
&
a
e n po
M tio
ta r t
n
a
El ry: Dr iv ch s
em Tr
O
er
e n ad s a p s
ta e s/ nd
ry
: C Pla Op
le nt/M s
r ic
al ach
/S
er
vic
e
-10,000
Figure 3.17. Projected change in employment by industry and occupation group in the
South West region from 2008 to 2020144.
The number of service leavers in the region is expected to increase somewhat over
the next few years (Figure 3.18), reflecting changes in the numbers of personnel
stationed here145. This growth is mainly associated with the more junior ranks and
144
Forecast from LEFM in summer 2008. These projections do not take account of very recent economic
changes, which may lead to significantly different projections for some sectors. For example, the South West
Observatory South West Economy Projections August 2008 project long term employment decline in the
banking and finance and construction sectors, while the LEFM projections used here project growth.
145
Considering potential changes in personnel numbers associated with the development of the Salisbury Plain
Super Garrison, the movement of the HQ Land and Adjutant General out of the region under project Hyperion,
the movement of HQ ARRC to Innsworth following the withdrawal of the RAF, the change of use of Blandford
garrison, the closure of RAF Lyneham and the potential re-use of the site as a main base for army helicopters,
the movement of flying elements away from RAF St Mawgan, the build up of 24 Cdo Regt in Devon, the
potential decline in operational ships personnel in Plymouth as the Trafalgar class submarines are
decommissioned and replaced by the Astute class (based in Clyde) and the build up of personnel at Abbey
Wood as DE&S decider elements focus there.
93
largely relates to increases in the number of army personnel stationed in the region.
With army policy changing so that personnel become mainly stationed around
centralized “super garrisons” and spending the majority of their careers in the same
general area, more personnel may choose to settle in the region in future. The
projections shown in Figure 3.18 do not take account of this potential effect. At
present, army junior ranks are the least likely to settle in the region, with most
preferring to return to home areas in other parts of the country. If they do become
more settled in the region, under the super garrison concept, there may be a
substantial increase in the numbers choosing to remain in the region146.
Projected change in service leavers
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
Officers
Other
Ranks
1,500
1,000
500
0
2007
2010
2012
2014
Figure 3.18. Potential evolution of the numbers of service leavers in the region, taking
account of planned changes in the numbers of personnel stationed in the South West.
146
Our survey indicates that 43% of army other ranks service leavers intend to remain in the SW region,
compared to 63% for the navy. If army personnel become more settled in the region, the proportion choosing to
remain in the region may be expected to become similar to the figure for the navy. If this were the case, the
projected number of leavers from army other ranks choosing to remain in the region would increase by around
400 per year. This number is obviously small in comparison to the scale of the overall workforce, but may form
a locally significant component of the annual civilian workforce growth.
94
3.5. Significance of Findings
In recent decades, the population structure of the region, in combination with the
fairly buoyant economic circumstances across parts of the region, has meant that
there has been a long-standing net inflow of working-age migrants. What is evident
from this analysis is that, in terms of scale, there exists an internal labour-supply
“reservoir” – in the form of armed-forces leavers – which is probably unmatched
within other regions. Furthermore, a substantial proportion of those expressing a
preference for remaining within the region are officers, who often have highlymarketable skills.
Given current economic circumstances, this outflow could be considered to be more
of a problem than an opportunity. After all, the region is hardly likely to be spared the
increased unemployment levels that are likely to accompany the forthcoming
recession. In the longer-term, however, the national population structure, and the
ageing of the population, is likely to mean that labour-supply problems, and their
potential constraining influence on economic prospects, are likely to figure
prominently on the national agenda. This being so, the region could find itself
advantageously-placed, particularly given the indications that, on the whole, there is
likely to be an increased demand for the skills-sets of armed forces leavers.
95
4. Summary and Conclusion
The military presence is one of the defining characteristics of the region. Around one
quarter of the UK defence estate and almost a quarter of the UK based armed
forces personnel are based in the region and it is estimated that around £9bn of
MoD funding is directed here. Military personnel and their dependants constitute
around 1.6% of the regional population and the economic significance of the military
employment and associated population is around £2bn GVA.
Expected changes to the military presence will lead to both significant positive and
negative economic impacts at a local level in many areas of the region. The degree
of uncertainty around the timing and scale of a number of these changes makes
their potential implications difficult to plan for, but it is hoped that the unprecedented
access to information (albeit, still with a number of limitations), and use of a
modelling approach that has allowed the distinct nature of military bases to be taken
into account, has allowed this report to present a realistic impression of the scale of
the potential economic impacts.
The largest positive impacts are expected in Wiltshire, relating to the increases in
employment around the Salisbury Plain (and also the potential civilian employment
re-use of Wilton), and the largest negative impacts are expected in Plymouth
relating to personnel decreases at the naval base.
This report has also made one of the first serious attempts to develop an
understanding of the importance of military service leavers for the civilian labour
market. These leavers form a significant component of annual labour force growth in
the region and have the potential to contribute to a number of sectors, including
those with high levels of hard to fill vacancies. This internal labour reservoir may
also be expected to increase in the coming years.
It is hoped that this report and the wider Military Civilian Integration Programme will
provide a platform for a greater appreciation of the importance of the military within
the region, and that the developing networks of information sharing and partnership
working between local government, the military and the regional authorities will
continue to be taken forward and embedded within the organisational culture of all
involved.
96
Appendix A – Adjustments to Model Default Settings
Industry links and local proportions of inputs
The model default values for inputs to production and the local shares of these
inputs have been adjusted for the modelling of changes to military employment. It
was felt necessary to make such adjustments for two main reasons. Firstly, it is
considered that military bases have lower links to the wider local economy than
other public administration functions. Secondly, the model default industry links
contain an effect reflecting the spending and use of services by employees, as well
as direct links between that organisation and other industry sectors. In this study,
changes to the military-related population have been modelled separately, primarily
to account for the changing workforce147. This could therefore lead to a double
counting of the impacts relating to the spending/services use of military personnel.
The inputs and local shares for retail, health and education sectors have therefore
been reduced significantly, but it has not been possible to reduce the employment
impact in these sectors to very low levels, leaving a degree of double counting. To
get around this problem, changes to the military-related population have been
modelled in two separate components – the military personnel themselves and the
military dependants. Model settings for the dependants have been left as default, as
the impacts in changes to this component of the population are not captured
elsewhere. For the military personnel the “export shares” feature of the model was
used to reduce the employment impacts to better account for the double counting.
To address the issue of the lower industry links to other sectors, the inputs to
production and local shares for the main sectors affected (professional services,
other business services, miscellaneous services and hotel and catering) have also
been reduced. In order to reduce these values by a reasonable level, adjustments
were made for areas where the approximate number of civilian contractors providing
these services to the base are known (i.e. Lyneham and Tidworth), as it is thought
that these would account for the bulk of secondary employment in these areas. The
resulting adjusted values were then used for all other areas with the exception of the
Plymouth Naval Base. Here, the loss of civilian dockyard jobs was modelled using
the default values for the mechanical engineering sector and the reduction in crew
employment used an average between these default values and the adjusted values
discussed above (to account for the impacts of local ship maintenance etc carried
out locally).
Productivity per worker
Productivity per worker is equivalent gross output per worker and has been
estimated for the sites in this study based on the locally incurred costs of running the
base in question and the average wage of the employees. Locally incurred costs are
assumed to mostly include base services – maintenance and catering etc. It was
decided not to consider the costs of purchasing military equipment likely to be used
on the bases as these costs are met nationally and equipment deployed wherever
necessary. Information on base running costs was available for the Salisbury Plain
Super Garrison area, Wilton, Lyneham, Blandford Camp and Plymouth with
estimates made for the other areas based on this information. Information on
average military and civil service wages was provided by HQ Land.
147
E.g. if the military population is not decreased at the same time as military employment decreases, the model
would show an artificial increase in unemployment.
97
Appendix B – Model Inputs
Salisbury Plain Area:
• Employment changes – based on unit move timetable provided by 43 Wessex Brigade at May 2008; • Population changes – for all areas, only changes in the population in military
accommodation were considered as personnel in privately arranged
accommodation are effectively part of the civilian population and changes will
be balanced by changes in the numbers of civilians. The numbers of
incoming personnel who would be in barracks and married quarters were
estimated using average ratios for the Salisbury Plain garrisons from the
Wiltshire annual survey of military bases. An age profile and male/female split
were then applied to the total numbers of military personnel in military
accommodation based on national averages (DASA). All personnel in married
quarters must have spouses and these were assigned an age profile
mirroring that of the military personnel. An average of 1.27 children per
spouse has been used following data available for a number of military units
formerly based in the Tidworth area and all children assumed to be between
the age of 0 and 16, with an even male/female split. The resulting population
figures were then added to the model default totals.
• Construction investment – annual construction investment data were
provided for the Project Allenby Connaught construction project by Aspire
Defence. When input into the model, this gave a number of construction staff
higher than suggested by the company. As this construction project involves
the use of modular construction, with factory built units brought in from other
parts of the country, it is assumed that a significant proportion of this
construction investment immediately leaves the area. The level of
construction investment input into the model was therefore reduced to an
assumed “local component” that gave an appropriate estimate for the number
of locally engaged construction-related staff.
RAF Lyneham:
• Employment change – while the current number of personnel at the base and
the closure date are known, the exact rate of personnel decrease between
2010 and 2012 has been estimated. For the potential military re-use scenario,
the total numbers of personnel have been estimated using RNAS Yeovilton
as an analogy.
• Population changes – the decrease in population following the closure of RAF
Lyneham has been estimated in a similar manner to above, using known
proportions of personnel in barracks and married quarters for the base. The
rate of the population decrease has been estimated based on information as
to when new accommodation will be available in the Brize Norton area. A
relatively high proportion of the RAF personnel currently at Lyneham live in
privately arranged accommodation (compared to the other military sites in
Wiltshire). As the potential military re-use considered is as an army helicopter
base, rather than an RAF site, it was decided to use the average ratios of
personnel living in barracks, married quarters and their own homes for all the
sites in Wiltshire to estimate the numbers of personnel and dependants in
military accommodation for this scenario.
98
Wilton:
• Employment change – the total number of posts lost as a result of the merger
and relocation of the army HQ’s from Wilton and Upavon was provided by the
Hyperion project team. This figure was used for the employment reduction in
the Wilton local economic area. As the HQ’s will be leaving Wiltshire County,
when modelling the impact of the relocation at county scale, all military and
civilian staff currently working at the HQ’s were assumed to be leaving the
county.
• Population change – no population change within the Wilton local economic
area has been modelled as the HQ’s will be moving within the area. At county
level, all personnel in barracks associated with the two HQ’s (with known
figures from the Wiltshire military base survey) as assumed to leave the
county as the HQ’s move in 2010, but the personnel and dependants in
married quarters are modelled as staying in Wiltshire for 5 years after the
move, as suggested by the military. Again, age profiles etc have been applied
as described for the Salisbury Plain Area.
Blandford Camp:
• Employment change – the current base personnel composition (i.e. the
numbers of permanent military personnel associated with the different
functions at the garrison, the numbers of military trainees and civilian
personnel) and the expected composition after the relocation of the Royal
School of Signals has been provided by the base and used to estimate the
employment changes under the three scenarios examined.
• Population change – Wiltshire default values for the numbers of personnel in
barracks, married quarters and their own homes have been applied to the
different personnel employment scenarios and age profiles etc applied as for
the Salisbury Plain Area.
Plymouth Naval Base and Dockyard:
• Employment changes – the submarine crew employment reductions have
been estimated based on the published timetable for the decommissioning of
the Trafalgar Class submarines (and fact that the new Astute Class will be
based in the Clyde) and the average size of the submarine crews. The
probable small increase in the number of Royal Marines personnel in the
naval base area has been estimated following the comment in the Defence
Estates Brief for the Government Office of the South West and the estimated
average size of RM units. The decrease in civilian dockyard employment is
based on Babcock press releases. The potential decrease in frigate
personnel is based on assumed rate of ship movement (one ship a year from
2009 to 2014) and the average size of frigate crews.
• Population changes – No population changes have been modelled relating to
the changes in civilian dockyard employment. For the Royal Marines
personnel, Wiltshire averages have been used to estimate the numbers in
barracks and married quarters and age profiles etc applied as for the
Salisbury Plain Area. For the ships and submarines crew, a similar proportion
of personnel were assumed to be in barracks, but a much lower proportion in
married quarters, as take up is lower amongst naval personnel. Estimates of
dependants were made on the basis of these figures. For the estimates of
population of military personnel, it was assumed that up to 40% of the total
could be at sea at any one time (as in the Harmony guidelines) and so the
local military population was reduced by this level.
99
• Construction phases – the total construction cost of the new dockyard facility
was taken from a news story, with the associated investment estimated to be
front-loaded and spread over 5 years. A substantial proportion of the
investment was assumed to be associated with mechanical engineering and
electronics, rather than purely construction. The total investment in the Royal
Marines facilities in Plymouth has been taken from the DE Brief for the
Government Office of the South West and the timescale of investment
assumed.
Other sites:
• Abbey Wood – information regarding employment changes and construction
provided by DE&S
• RAF Innsworth/Imjin Barracks – information on employment changes
provided by the Borona Programme team and Innsworth Station Commander
• Chivenor – information regarding employment changes from DE GOSW
Brief
• RAF St Mawgan – information regarding change of use and employment
changes from DE GOSW Brief and DE Operations South
• Royal Marines Poole – construction cost figures from DE GOSW Brief,
timescale assumed
• RNAS Yeovilton – construction cost figures from DE GOSW Brief, timescale
assumed
• RNAS Culdrose – construction cost figures and timescale from DE GOSW
Brief
100
Appendix C – Modelling Results for Other Sites Site
Abbey Wood, South Gloucestershire
FTE jobs difference to base projection
(‘000s)
Real Household Disposable Income
(£2001m)
2008 2010 2013 2020
24
1.2
64
3.0
77
3.4
87
3.5
23
63
75
84
-22
-0.9
-18
-0.7
-21
-0.7
-19
-16
-18
0
0.0
0
0.0
6
0.2
7
0.2
0
0
6
7
-6
-0.3
-7
-0.3
-7
-0.3
-8
-0.3
-5
-7
-7
-8
0
0.0
0
0.0
4
0.2
5
0.2
0
0
4
5
13
0.4
0
0.0
0
0.0
0
0.0
7
0
0
0
0
0.0
7
0.2
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
RAF Innsworth/Imjin Barracks, Gloucestershire
-39
-1.9
(‘000s)
-37
(£2001m)
Chivenor, Devon
(‘000s)
(£2001m)
RAF St Mawgan, Cornwall
(‘000s)
(£2001m)
Royal Marines Poole
(‘000s)
(£2001m)
RNAS Yeovilton, Somerset
(‘000s)
(£2001m)
RNAS Culdrose, Cornwall
(‘000s)
(£2001m)
101
Appendix D – Skills and Experience of Service Leavers
Suggested civilian equivalents to military ranks from the Career Transition
Partnership website148. These are very general and do not apply to all service
leavers.
Royal Navy
Army (inc
Royal
Marines)
RAF
Suggested Civilian Equivalent
General;
Lieutenant
General;
Major
General
Air Chief
Marshal; Air
Marshal; Air
Vice-Marshal
Commodore
Brigadier
Air
Commodore
Captain
Commander
Colonel;
Lieutenant
Colonel
Group
Captain; Wing
Commander
Lieutenant
Commander
Major
Squadron
Leader
Lieutenant;
Sub
Lieutenant
Captain;
Lieutenant
Flight
Lieutenant;
Flying Officer
Midshipman
Second
Lieutenant
Pilot Officer
Senior manager up to chairman or chief
executive – depending on size of
organisation. Extensive top level
management and strategic planning
experience including international and
geo-political aspects. Also has
considerable experience of interface with
Government policy making and
administrative machinery.
Managing director of company up to
10,000 staff – extensive management and
operational experience which could
include strategic planning, policy
formulation, programme or project
management at a senior level.
Middle up to senior manager – general
manager/operations director/managing
director – experience could include
administration, operations, and policy and
resource management on a large scale.
Branch or functional manager/department
head – total responsibility for workforce of
around 100 to 200. Experience could
include project/programme management,
procurement, and contract management.
Deputy/assistant manager, operations
manager. Qualified in a trade or profession
and will be trained and experienced in
general management and team leadership
techniques.
Likely to be still under training in general
management and team leadership
techniques, as well as specialist skills.
Officers
Admiral; Vice
Admiral; Rear
Admiral
148
http://www.ctp.org.uk/ctp/serviceleavers/military-ranks
102
Army (inc
Royal
Marines)
Other Ranks
Warrant
Warrant
Officer;
Officer Class
Warrant
1; Warrant
Officer II
Officer Class
II
Royal
Navy
RAF
Suggested Civilian Equivalent
Warrant
Officer
Middle manager/senior supervisor/purchasing
manager/personnel officer/training manager
etc, with responsibility for up to 600 staff.
Frequently very highly qualified in a trade or
profession and very experienced in training
and instructing others.
Foreman/supervisor/junior manager.
Frequently qualified in a trade or profession
and experienced in training and instructing
others. Could also have experience in health
and safety, resource management and
operations, with responsibility for 30 to 200
staff.
Team leader. Usually skilled in a trade and will
have undertaken management and leadership
training.
Senior operative or shift leader. Usually skilled
in a trade and will have undertaken some
management and leadership training.
Chief
Petty
Officer;
Petty
Officer
Colour
Sergeant;
Sergeant
Flight
Sergeant;
Chief
Technician
Sergeant
Leading
Rate
Corporal
Corporal
Able Rate
Lance
Corporal
Ordinary
Rate
Private
Junior
Technician;
Senior
Aircraftman
Leading
Aircraftman
Skilled operative in a trade e.g. administration,
engineering, communications, stores, driving,
catering, weaponry, etc. Experienced team
worker who will have completed a minimum of
six months training in a wide variety of
disciplines, plus specialist training.
Key transferable skills of service leavers identified by the Career Transition
Partnership:
• Leadership qualities
• Reliability and decisiveness
• Flexibility
• Determination and self-discipline
• Courage and loyalty
• Initiative and self-motivation
103

Military Presence and Economic Significance in

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