July 14, 2016: Could there be A Democratic Wave?

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Volume39,
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No.14
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Volume
2016 House Ratings
Pure Toss-up (10R, 2D)
az 1 (open; Kirkpatrick, d)
NH 1 (Guinta, r)
fl 18 (open; murphy, d)
NV 3 (open; Heck, r)
fl 26 (curbelo, r)
Ny 22 (open; Hanna, r)
ia 3 (young, r)
Ny 24 (Katko, r)
il 10 (dold, r)
tX 23 (Hurd, r)
me 2 (poliquin, r)
Wi 8 (open; ribble, r)
Toss-up/Tilt Dem (3R, 2D) Toss-up/Tilt GOP (4R)
IA 1 (Blum, R)
co 6 (coffman, r)
MN 2 (Open; Kline, R)
mi 7 (Walberg, r)
Ne 2 (ashford, d)
Ny 1 (zeldin, r)
Ny 3 (open; israel, d)
pa 8 (open; fitzpatrick, r)
NV 4 (Hardy, R)
lean Democratic (1D)
lean Republican (3R)
ca 7 (bera, d)
mi 1 (open; benishek, r)
Ny 19 (open; Gibson, r)
Va 10 (comstock, r)
Democrat Favored (1R, 1D)
Republican Favored (8R)
FL 13 (Jolly, R)*
az 2 (mcsally, r)
mN 8 (Nolan, dfl)
ca 21 (Valadao, r)
ca 25 (Knight, r)
fl 7 (mica, r)
iN 9 (open; young, r)#
mN 3 (paulsen, r)#
NJ 5 (Garrett, r)
ut 4 (love, r)
Safe Democrat (2R)
Safe Republican (1D)
FL 10 (Open; Webster, R)
FL 2 (Open; Graham, D)
VA 4 (Open; Forbes, R)
Takeovers in Italics
# moved benefiting Democrats,
* moved benefiting Republicans
GOP
DEM
114th congress
247
188
currently safe
217
183
competitive
29
6
Needed for majority
218
2016 House Overview:
Waiting for a Wave
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Donald Trump is supposed to be an anvil
around the neck of Republican candidates
down the ballot and around the country, but
up to this point in the cycle, vulnerable GOP
incumbents are holding their own.
Democrats believe every Republican
agrees with Trump and must publicly rebuke everything he has ever
said or risk a backlash on Election Day. But voters have not yet punished
GOP DEM for Trump’s sins. Democrats must litigate that
Republican incumbents
case
over
the
next four months.
114th congress
54often shows Trump struggling in competitive districts
Polling thus far
46race while GOP incumbents are leading their own rein the presidential
election
fights.
Not up this cycle
30 months ago, it’s not difficult to see Democrats
As we said three
36 seats in November in this environment. But picking
gaining 10-20 House
currently
up
10 moresafe
seats necessary for a majority is considerably harder and
would require a 14
wave to pull unknown and underfinanced Democratic
8
challengers across the finish line. And Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity
competitive
could
limit her party’s gains.
10
Of course, if an electoral wave develops nationally, the House might
2
be the last place it is felt.
For example, in 2006, when Democrats gained 31 seats and took
over the House majority, Republican incumbents such as Clay Shaw of
Florida, Nancy Johnson of Connecticut, Ann Northup of Kentucky, John
Sweeney of New York, Melissa Hart of Pennsylvania, and others, were
still leading their races in late August and early September before the
bottom dropped out and they all lost.
Obviously, the 2006 and 2016 cycles are not identical, considering the
Mark Foley scandal accelerated the decline of the Republicans that year
and 2006 was a midterm election with an unpopular Republican in the
White House. But it’s an important reminder that the House outlook can
change quickly.
We’re moving a couple more seats out of Safe from the Republican
column as an acknowledgement of Trump’s potential to plummet in
the suburbs (Minnesota’s 3rd District) or because of candidate-specific
dynamics (Indiana’s 9th District) and not as specific signs of a wave.
Now that the presidential nominating contests are over, both parties
are currently polling dozens of House races across the country. We’ll
have a better idea of the breadth of the battleground and starting point
for these races in the next couple of weeks.
RothenbergGonzales.com
RothenbergGonzales.com
Evan Bayh, Indiana and
the Fight for the Senate
2016 Senate Ratings
Pure Toss-up
Ayotte (R-NH)
By Nathan L. Gonzales
Former Sen. Evan Bayh will run for the Senate
after all, buoying Democrats’ chances of winning
the open seat in Indiana and the Senate majority.
Bayh’s decision was surprising, considering
he didn’t seek re-election in 2010 and had shown
no interest in running or serving again despite
Democratic recruitment efforts earlier in the cycle.
Democratic nominee/former Rep. Baron Hill
stepped aside to allow the state party to replace
him on the ballot.
Rep. Todd Young, the GOP nominee, is a
top-tier candidate in the race to replace retiring
Republican Sen. Dan Coats. But Bayh immediately changes the dynamic.
He starts the race with high and positive name identification and over $9
million in his campaign account. At a minimum, Republicans will now
be forced to spend money defending a seat that the otherwise wouldn’t
have had to exert energy defending.
We’re changing our rating from Republican Favored to Toss-Up/Tilt
Democratic.
Bayh won’t have a lot of time to shake off any rust from his campaign
apparatus, since he hasn’t been on the general election ballot since 2004,
and there is plenty of fodder for Republican attacks.
They’ll bring up his votes for the Affordable Care Act and lack of
effectiveness while in the Senate, his lobbying record after he left, and
highlight the lack of time he has spent in Indiana, including expensive
homes in the Washington, D.C. area and Florida. And Bayh, a former
two-term governor and son of a Senator, will be portrayed as a lifelong
politician. Republicans will have to litigate that case and change voters’
minds about Bayh.
The races aren’t over, but Democrats are well-positioned to take over
seats in Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana. If they hold Nevada, they’d
need to defeat just one more vulnerable GOP senator to gain control of
the Senate, if Hillary Clinton becomes president.
Rubio (R-FL)
NV open (reid, d)
Toss-up/Tilt Democrat
Toss-up/Tilt Republican
Johnson (R-WI)
Portman (R-OH)
IN Open (Coats, R)#
Toomey (R-PA)
lean Democrat
lean Republican
Kirk (R-IL)
Burr (R-NC)
Democrat Favored
Republican Favored
Bennet (D-CO)
Blunt (R-MO)
McCain (R-AZ)
Safe Democrat
Safe Republican
Blumenthal (D-CT)
Boozman (R-AR)
Leahy (D-VT)
Isakson (R-GA)
Murray (D-WA)
Lankford (R-OK)
Schatz (D-HI)
Crapo (R-ID)
Schumer (D-NY)
Grassley (R-IA)
Wyden (D-OR)
Hoeven (R-ND)
CA Open (Boxer, D)
Lee (R-UT)
md open (mikulski, d)
Moran (R-KS)
Murkowski (R-AK)
GOP
DEM
Paul (R-KY)
114th congress
54
46
Scott (R-SC)
Not up this cycle
30
36
Shelby (R-AL)
currently safe
14
8
Thune (R-SD)
competitive
10
2
la open (Vitter, r)
Takeovers in Italics # moved benefiting Democrats,
* moved benefiting Republicans
@InsideElections
facebook.com/RPRPolitics
Nathan L. Gonzales
Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@nathanlgonzales
Stuart Rothenberg
Founding Editor & Publisher
[email protected]
@stupolitics
Will Taylor
Production Artist
The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report is a nonpartisan publication that analyzes, handicaps and reports on U.S. House, Senate,
and gubernatorial elections and presidential politics. It neither endorses candidates nor advocates positions in matters of public policy.
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July 14, 2016
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rotHeNberGGoNzales.com
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
House Overview: Alaska-California
Alaska. Aug. 16 primary
At-Large District (Young, R). Democrats haven’t held the seat in
over 40 years, but strategists think Don Young is vulnerable. Likely
nominee Steve Lindbeck, the CEO of Alaska Public Media, and the
state Democratic Party released a two-question poll conducted June
29-30 by PPP which showed that the congressman is unpopular but
conspicuously didn’t include a ballot test or any information on the
challenger. Lindbeck had a good fundraising quarter and showed
$325,000 on hand at the end of June compared to $640,000 for Young. The
congressman won re-election in 2014 with just 51 percent but the margin
was 10 points because of a Libertarian candidate. This is a wave race.
Safe GOP for now.
1st District (Open; Kirkpatrick, D). Ann Kirkpatrick’s Senate
run leaves Democrats with a difficult open seat to defend. Her party
has coalesced behind former GOP state Sen. Tom O’Halleran while
Republicans have a crowded primary contest. Pinal County Sheriff Paul
Babeu looks like the
frontrunner and has
a local and national
profile for his antiillegal immigration
views but has been
dogged by negative
press. Former
secretary of state/2014
gubernatorial
candidate Ken
Gary Kiehne
Bennett has some
name identification but hasn’t been a good fundraiser and state Speaker
David Gowan waded through some negative headlines. Rancher/2014
1st District candidate Gary Kiehne could be a factor with his personal
money. This looks like a race that will be fought by the campaign
committees and outside groups. Pure Toss-Up.
2nd District (McSally, R). Martha McSally was elected by just 167
votes in 2014 and the Tucson-area district is competitive, but Democratic
enthusiasm about defeating her is muted in part because of her multimillion dollar campaign account. Former state Rep. Matt Heinz is the
Democratic frontrunner but state Rep. Victoria Steele is running as well.
The inexpensive media market might be the only thing keeping the race
out of Safe. GOP Favored.
5th District (Open; Salmon, R). Matt Salmon is not seeking reelection and there is a crowded primary to replace the Freedom
Caucus member in the safe GOP seat. Wealthy internet executive/2014
gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones, state Senate President Andy
Biggs, state Rep. Justin Olsen, and former Maricopa County supervisor
Don Stapley are running.
California.
7th District (Bera, D). Bera topped Sacramento County Sheriff Scott
Jones, 53-47 percent, in the June 7 primary in a preview of the general
election since they were the only two candidates on the ballot. Bera is one of
rothenbergGonzales.com
Meredith Dake-O’Connor/CQ Roll Call
Arizona. Aug. 30 primary.
the few vulnerable incumbent Democratic incumbents and his re-election
got more difficult when his father pleaded guilty to campaign finance
violations for laundering over $250,000 in excessive contributions to help his
son’s campaign. Bera claims to have known nothing about his 83-year-old
father’s scheme. Jones got off to a slow fundraising start, but Republicans
believe he’s picking up the pace. Lean Democratic.
10th District (Denham, R). Jeff Denham defeated Democrat Michael
Eggman 56-44 percent in 2014 and finished ahead of Eggman 49-28
percent in the June 7 primary. A second GOP candidate received
10 percent, pushing the total Republican vote to close to 60 percent.
Democrats still believe the demographics of the district (approximately
40 percent of the population is Hispanic) keep the seat in play. But
Denham only loses in a GOP catastrophe. Safe Republican.
17th District (Honda, D). In 2014, Mike Honda finished ahead of
former Obama administration aide Ro Khanna 48-28 percent in the
primary and 52-48 percent in November. This year, Khanna finished
narrowly ahead of the congressman, 39-37 percent. Honda is in
significant danger, but the seat will stay in Democratic hands.
20th District (Open; Farr, D). Sam Farr is retiring and attorney/Navy
veteran Jimmy Panetta will replace him. The Democratic son of former
congressman/former White House chief of staff/former Defense Secretary
Leon Panetta received 71 percent in the June primary. GOP nominee/
Pacific Grove City Councilwoman Casey Lucius received 20 percent.
21st District (Valadao, R). Democrats have to target this district
because of its high Hispanic population, but David Valadao will
be difficult to defeat. He finished first in the June primary with a
considerable 58 percent and will face attorney Emilio Huerta, son of
labor icon Dolores Huerta, in November. Huerta’s campaign hasn’t
looked strong and he narrowly made the top two to move on. The only
reason why this race isn’t safe is because of Donald Trump and the
national environment. Republican Favored.
24th District (Open; Capps, D). Lois Capps’ retirement leaves a
potentially competitive open seat. Santa Barbara County Supervisor
Salud Carbajal (D) finished first in the June primary with 32 percent.
He’ll face young GOP businessman Justin Fareed (21 percent in the
primary) in November. Fareed is a credible candidate, but Republicans
struggle in competitive California districts in presidential years. Still Safe
for Democrats for now.
25th District (Knight, R). Steve Knight has had some unforced
errors in his first term but he’s still the favorite for re-election against
attorney Bryan Caforio. Democrats are targeting the district because
President Barack Obama won the district by 2 points in 2008 (he lost
it by 2 points in 2012) and they believe Knight is too conservative for
the district. Caforio can probably overcome his recent move to the
district but the Knight family has deep roots in the area. This is an
expensive target for Democrats. Republican Favored, but could get
more competitive.
36th District (Ruiz, D). Ruiz finished first in the primary with 57
percent and will face Republican state Sen. Jeff Stone (33 percent) in
November. Another Republican candidate finished third with 10 percent.
Republicans believe Stone, a former Riverside County supervisor, will
develop into a top candidate, but he’s not there yet. Safe for Democrats.
Continued on page 4
July 14, 2016
3
House Overview: Colorado-Florida
Republican. Donald Trump is toxic in the district but Democrats still
have to connect him to Coffman. Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.
Continued from page 3
44th District (Open; Hahn, D). State Sen. Isadore Hall finished first
in the June 7 primary with 42 percent in the race to replace Democratic
Rep. Janice Hahn. He’ll face fellow Democrat/Hermosa Beach City
Councilwoman Nanette Barragán (22 percent in the primary) in
November. Barragán’s allies are excited about the opposition research
against Hall, including some back rent and unpaid utility bills that
resulted in a subpoena on primary night, but she still has some work to
do, considering Hermosa Beach is not in the 44th and Hall represents
part of the district in the Legislature.
46th District (Open; Sanchez, D). Former state Sen. Lou Correa
finished first in the primary with 43 percent in the race to replace Senate
candidate Loretta Sanchez. He faces fellow Democrat/Garden Grove
Mayor Bao Nguyen in the November. House Minority Leader Nancy
Pelosi endorsed Correa’s candidacy. Safe for Democrats.
49th District (Issa, R). Democrats have renewed interested in
defeating Darrell Issa after the congressman finished ahead of
Democrat Doug Applegate in the primary, 52-45 percent. But Applegate
had less than $14,000 in his cash account compared to $3.8 million for
the congressman, who is also the wealthiest Member of Congress. It
seems unlikely Democrats get into an arms race over this seat, even
though the area is becoming more Hispanic. Safe for Republicans for
now.
52nd District (Peters, D). After a close re-election race in 2014, Scott
Peters finished first in this year’s primary with a considerable 58 percent
and will face Republican consultant Denise Gitsham in November.
Gitsham (17 percent in the primary) must overcome a significant
fundraising gap and convince voters that the Chamber of Commerceendorsed incumbent isn’t the right fit for the district. Gitsham’s
allies believe she will over-perform in the growing Asian American
community to make this competitive. We’ll see. Safe for Democrats for
now.
Delaware. Sept. 13 primary.
At-Large District (Open; Carney, D). John Carney’s gubernatorial bid
opens up a safe Democratic seat and the next Member will essentially
be chosen in the September. Former state Labor secretary Lisa Blunt
Rochester is a top contender in a field that includes state Sen. Bryan
Townsend, state Rep. Bryon Short, and Iraq war veteran/2014 state
treasurer nominee Sean Barney.
Florida. Aug. 30 primary.
3rd District (Tipton, R). Democrats believe there are at least a handful
of late-breaking races
and this is one of
them. Former state
Sen. Gail Schwartz,
who did not seek
re-election in 2014,
is challenging
Scott Tipton. The
congressman has a
modest fundraising
head start but Romney
Morgan Carroll
won the district by
6 points in 2012 and it is covered by three media markets, making it an
expensive target. Still Safe GOP for now.
6th District (Coffman, R). The race between Mike Coffman and
Democratic state Sen. Morgan Carroll is one of the most competitive in
the country - and it’s already underway. The congressman is airing a
television ad with testimonials about how he’s different than a regular
Republican while Democrats are determined to portray him as a Trump
4
July 14, 2016
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
Colorado.
1st District (Open; Miller, R). Jeff Miller went from nearly running
for the Senate to retiring from the House. Now there is an eightcandidate Republican field for the safe open seat, but state Rep. Matt
Gaetz, son of state senator and Jeb Bush supporter Don Gaetz, looks like
the frontrunner.
2nd District (Open; Graham, D). Democrats rejoiced over a new
court-ordered map that created some takeover opportunities, but Gwen
Graham’s district is a casualty considering Obama received 35 percent in
the 2nd in 2012. On the Republican side, wealthy physician Neal Dunn
looks like the pragmatic conservative while Mary Thomas, the IndianAmerican former in-house counsel to GOP Gov. Rick Scott, is trying to
appeal to the most conservative voters in the party. One of them will be a
Member next year.
4th District (Open; Crenshaw, R). Ander Crenshaw is retiring,
leaving open another safe Republican seat. Wealthy attorney Hanz
Tanzler III is in the top tier because of his personal money and former
Duval County Sheriff John Rutherford (who has the support of
Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry) should be well organized. State Rep.
Lake Ray has a good reputation and a constituency in the district but
might not be able to raise enough money to compete.
5th District (Brown, D). Corrine Brown is facing a tough fight for
re-election against former state senator/2012 2nd District nominee
Al Lawson. Her Duval County base still anchors the district that now
includes part of Tallahassee, but she was indicted on fraud charges
last week and temporarily stepped down as Ranking Member of the
Veterans’ Affairs Committee. Under any scenario, the seat is Safe for
Democrats.
6th District (DeSantis, R). Ron DeSantis was running for the Senate
until Marco Rubio decided to seek re-election. Now the congressman
is running for re-election and faces dentist/state Rep. Fred Costello
and Realtor G.G. Galloway, who were running when it was an open
seat. DeSantis is the favorite in the primary and the seat should stay in
Republican hands in November.
7th District (Mica, R). Democrats are hoping to catch long-time Rep.
John Mica off-guard in a redrawn district that gave Obama 50 percent in
2012. Former national security specialist/Rollins College business professor
Stephanie Murphy (D), 37, entered the race just before the filing deadline.
This race still needs to develop for Democrats. Republican Favored.
9th District (Open; Grayson, D). Alan Grayson is running for
the Senate and leaving behind a Democratic-leaning open seat that
Continued on page 5
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
House Overview: Georgia-Illinois
Republicans aren’t seriously challenging. Susannah Randolph (the
congressman’s former district director) is facing off against biotechnology
entrepreneur Dena Grayson (the congressman’s new wife) and state Sen.
Darren Soto. Safe for Democrats.
10th District (Open; Webster, R). Dan Webster is running in a
nearby district after the new lines made this virtually unwinnable for a
Republican. Former
Orlando police chief
Val Demings (who lost
to Webster in 2012) is a
top contender against
wealthy former state
party chairman Bob
Poe (who is gay and
announced he is HIV
positive) and state Sen.
Geraldine Thompson
Val Demings
in the August primary.
This district is home to the Pulse nightclub where a gunman shot and
killed 49 people last month. Safe for Democrats.
11th District (Webster, R). Webster is running for re-election here, in
retiring Rep. Richard Nugent’s district. He faces Nugent’s former chief of
staff Justin Grabelle in the primary. A Republican should hold the seat.
13th District (Jolly, R). David Jolly left his seat to run for the Senate
and returned to run for re-election as it became clear Rubio was running
for re-election. Jolly has considerable name identification from his initial
special election, but the redrawn district is more Democratic (Obama
received 55 percent in 2012) and the congressman made some enemies
within his own party by demonizing common fundraising practices and
facilitating a hidden camera report from 60 Minutes inside the NRCC.
Former Republican governor/Independent Senate candidate/2014
Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist is running as a Democrat
and is the frontrunner. Initial polling shows a competitive race and Crist
has previously lost races he was supposed to win, but this is his home turf
and there is no indication Jolly can raise the money necessary to compete
in a competitive race. Move from Safe for Democrats to Democrat Favored.
Public Policy Polling (D)(IVR) for Crist, June 6-7 (RVs)--General Election
ballot: Crist over Jolly 46%-43%.
McLaughlin & Assoc. (R) for Jolly, June 1-2 (RVs)--General Election ballot:
Jolly over Crist 50%-38%. IDs: Jolly 46% favorable/13% unfavorable, Crist
37% favorable/41% unfavorable.
18th District (Open; Murphy, D). Patrick Murphy’s Senate run
leaves Democrats with a difficult open seat to defend. Wealthy debris
removal company/Ashbritt CEO Randy Perkins is the likely Democratic
nominee. Martin County School Board member Rebecca Negron (state
Sen. Joe Negron’s wife) and wealthy physician Mark Freeman look like
the frontrunners in a crowded GOP field. Romney won the district in
2012, so this should be a good Republican takeover opportunity. Pure
Toss-Up.
19th District (Open; Clawson, R). Curt Clawson is retiring after just
two terms, leaving behind a safe Republican seat. Former ambassador
to the Vatican/wealthy businessman Francis Rooney and Sanibel City
rothenbergGonzales.com
Chris Maddaloni/CQ Roll Call
Continued from page 4
Councilman Chauncey Goss (who finished second in the 2012 primary
to Trey Radel) look like the frontrunners while former Secret Service
agent/2012 Maryland Senate nominee Dan Bongino is running as well.
26th District (Curbelo, R). Carlos Curbelo defeated embattled
Democratic Rep. Joe Garcia in a district Obama won with 53 percent
in 2012. But the new map made the district a couple points better for
Democrats. Party strategists are excited about Annette Taddeo, who lost
an uphill challenge to Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2008, a bid for Miami-Dade
County Commissioner in 2010, and was on the losing gubernatorial
ticket in 2014 as Crist’s running mate. But Taddeo must get past Garcia
in the primary. Meanwhile, Curbelo is raising a lot of money and is
regarded as a strong incumbent. Pure Toss-Up.
27th District (Ros-Lehtinen, R). Democrats are now talking
about challenging the beloved Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. The district leans
Democratic but the race is still Safe for the GOP pending more evidence.
Georgia. July 26 run-off.
3rd District (Open; Westmoreland, R). Lynn Westmoreland is
retiring, leaving a safe GOP open seat behind. State Sen. Mike Crane and
dentist/former West Point Mayor Drew Ferguson finished a close first
and second in the May primary and will face-off in the July 26 run-off.
Third place finisher Jim Pace backed Ferguson. Crane has the Club for
Growth’s endorsement. The seat is Safe for Republicans.
Hawaii. August 13 primary
1st District (Open; Takai, D). Mark Takai announced he will not
seek re-election in order to focus on his battle with pancreatic cancer.
Former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa is the frontrunner to replace him in the
August primary. She left the seat in 2014 to challenge appointed-Sen.
Brian Schatz in the Democratic primary and lost. The seat is Safe for
Democrats.
Illinois.
10th District (Dold, R). Bob Dold and former Democratic Rep. Brad
Schneider are locked in a competitive race for the third consecutive cycle.
Trump is toxic in the suburban district but Republicans believe Dold’s
brand can prevail. Pure Toss-Up.
Normington, Petts, & Assoc for Schneider, June 6-9 (LVs)--General Election
ballot: Schneider over Dold 47%-43%. Presidential: Clinton over Trump 53%35%.
North Star Opinion Research (R), May 3-5 (LVs)--General Election ballot:
Dold over Schneider 48%-41%.
12th District (Bost, R). Democratic attorney C.J. Baricevic had a strong
fundraising quarter in the first three months of the year and caused party
strategists to take a second look at his challenge to Mike Bost. Both sides
are watching to see if he can keep up the fundraising pace. But Bost looks
like a good fit for the Downstate district where Trump might actually do
well. Still Safe for Republicans.
Indiana. May 3 primary.
3rd District (Open; Stutzman, R). State Sen. Jim Banks, who also
served in Afghanistan with the Navy Reserves, won the May GOP
Continued on page 6
July 14, 2016
5
House Overview: Indiana-Michigan
to enter the race before the filing deadline. Yoder has over $2 million in
campaign funds and a significant early advantage. Still Safe GOP for now.
Continued from page 5
Iowa.
1st District (Blum, R). Freshman Rod Blum is a Democratic target in a
district Obama won with 56 percent. Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman
Monica Vernon lost the 2014 primary but won this year’s primary over
Pat Murphy. Blum is in significant danger and is still mending some
bridges from within his own party after opposing John Boehner for
Speaker. Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.
3rd District (Young, R). David Young wasn’t the best candidate in
2014 but he is starting to get stronger as an incumbent. He still faces a
difficult race in a competitive district Obama won by 4 points in 2012
against Jim Mowrer (who challenged Steve King unsuccessfully in 2014).
This looks like another race where both parties will spend heavily. Pure
Toss-Up.
Kansas. Aug. 2 primary.
1st District (Huelskamp, R). Freedom Caucus Member Tim
Huelskamp faces a competitive primary challenge from physician Roger
Marshall. The Club for Growth is backing the congressman while the
Kansas Farm Bureau endorsed the challenger. Huelskamp was removed
from the Agriculture Committee in 2013. The group did not endorse a
candidate in his 2014 race. Challenging a congressman has a conservative
obstructionist isn’t usually a winning primary message, but Marshall is a
credible foe. The race is worth keeping an eye on, but the seat will stay in
GOP hands.
POS (R) for Marshall, June 25-26 (LVs)--GOP Primary ballot: Huelskamp
over Marshall 42%-41%.
3rd District (Yoder, R). Democrats believe Kevin Yoder’s suburban
district is moving in their direction and convinced businessman Jay Sidie
6
July 14, 2016
Kentucky.
1st District (Open; Whitfield, R). Former state Agriculture
Commissioner Jamie Comer, who lost the 2015 gubernatorial primary,
won the May 17 Republican primary to replace the retiring congressman.
Comer will be a Member of Congress next year and not likely to join the
Freedom Caucus.
Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call
primary to replace Marlin Stutzman and will be a Member of Congress
next year. He faces eight-time candidate/unemployed transient Tommy
Schrader (D) in November.
9th District (Open; Young, R). Todd Young’s Senate run opens up
this Republican seat. Businessman Trey Hollingsworth, who recently
moved to the district from Tennessee, won the May primary by vastly
outspending state
Attorney General
Greg Zoeller and state
Sen. Erin Houchin.
Democrats have a
credible candidate
with Monroe County
Commissioner/
former Miss
Indiana/2012 nominee
Shelli Yoder who will
Shelli Yoder
be a stark contrast
to Hollingsworth’s recent relocation to the area. The district still favors
Republicans, but with a newly-competitive Senate race, this race could
get tighter. Move from Safe GOP to Republican Favored.
Garin Hart Yang (D) for Yoder, May 23-25 (LVs)--General Election ballot:
Hollingsworth and Yoder tied at 41%.
Louisiana. July 22 filing deadline. Nov. 8 primary. Dec. 10 run-off.
3rd District (Open; Boustany, R). Charles Boustany is running for
David Vitter’s open Senate seat. Public Service Commissioner Scott
Angelle is the frontrunner after he finished a close third (behind Vitter)
in the 2015 gubernatorial primary but a handful of other Republicans are
running. Safe GOP under virtually all scenarios.
4th District (Open; Fleming, R). John Fleming is also running for
the Senate. His district is more competitive than the 3rd, but still likely
to stay in Republican hands. The race also lacks a heavyweight such as
Angelle. State Rep. Mike Johnson, physician Trey Baucum, former state
Sen. Elbert Guillory, and others are running in a race that still hasn’t
solidified. Safe GOP.
Maine.
2nd District (Poliquin, R). Bruce Poliquin defeated Democrat Emily
Cain 47-42 percent in 2014 to win a Democratic open seat. But Cain
is back for a rematch and Democratic strategists dismiss the results
as a midterm aberration. Poliquin is one of House Republicans’ best
fundraisers and has personal money to invest in the race. Cain appears
to be improving as a fundraiser and released a poll which showed
her running even with the congressman at 45 percent. Trump could
play well in the rural district (and contend for the single electoral
vote), but Poliquin was conspicuously absent when the presumptive
presidential nominee visited the district. Pure Toss-Up, but a must-win
for Democrats.
Normington Petts (D) for Cain, June 6-9 (LVs)--General Election ballot:
Poliquin and Cain tied at 45%.
Maryland.
4th District (Open; Edwards, D). Former Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown,
who lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to Larry Hogan, won the April
Democratic primary and will be a Member of Congress next year.
8th District (Open; Van Hollen, D). State Sen. Jamie Raskin won the
April Democratic primary and will be a Member of Congress next year.
Wealthy businessman Dave Trone spent over $12 million of his own
money and finished in second place.
Michigan. Aug. 2 primary.
1st District (Open; Benishek, R). Three-term Rep. Dan Benishek
is retiring, leaving a potentially competitive open seat that Obama
won by nearly 2 points in 2008 but lost by 9 points in 2012. Former
state Democratic Party chairman Lon Johnson is the likely Democratic
Continued on page 7
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
House Overview: Minnesota-Nevada
believe the damage they inflicted on Mills in 2014 is irreversible and
the sale of the family company (Mills Fleet Farm stores) will negatively
impact the community and result in a backlash against the Mills family.
But, unlike last cycle, Mills is a full-time candidate and he’s committed
some of his own money for early, positive ads. Meanwhile Nolan is
consistently balancing a socially conservative district with his liberal
tendencies, such as attending the Democratic sit-in on gun control.
Democrat Favored, but this could develop into another interesting
contest, in part because Clinton is not popular on the Iron Range.
Continued from page 6
Minnesota. Aug. 9 primary.
2nd District (Open; Kline, R). Obama narrowly won this district
twice, but John Kline crafted a moderate image that helped keep
the seat in GOP hands and his retirement leaves a competitive open
seat. Medical device company executive Angie Craig ($1.8 milion on
hand on June 30) is the likely DFL nominee and one of Democrats’
best candidates around the country. Republicans have a competitive
primary between radio talk show host Jason Lewis (who won the party
endorsement but had sluggish early fundraising), businesswoman
Darlene Miller (who is supported by Kline), and former state Sen.
John Howe (who put in over $500,000 of his own money but it’s
unclear if he’ll spend it). Some GOP strategists are concerned Lewis
is too conservative for the district, but he’s a better candidate than his
reputation. Craig is probably more liberal than the district, but her
fundraising prowess and Trump at the top of the ticket give her an
initial advantage. Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.
3rd District (Paulsen, R). Democrats are trying to expand the House
playing field by targeting suburban districts and believe state Sen. Terri
Bonoff pulls this race into play. She dropped out of the 2008 race after
young Iraq War veteran Ashwin Madia won the DFL endorsement. Party
strategists were excited about her fundraising quarter, when she brought
in over $600,000. Then Paulsen announced he raised $1 million in the
quarter and still has an over $2 million cash advantage. The district is
competitive enough (Obama won 50-49 percent in 2012) and Trump is
toxic enough for this seat to be considered in play. Move from Safe GOP
to Republican Favored.
8th District (Nolan, DFL). Rick Nolan defeated Republican Stewart
Mills III in a close race, and Mills is back for a rematch. Democrats
rothenbergGonzales.com
Montana.
At-Large District (Zinke, R). Democrats are targeting freshman Ryan
Zinke with State Superintendent of Public Education Denise Juneau in
an effort to expand the battleground map. She is a credible candidate
but still faces an uphill battle against the congressman, who is a retired
Navy Seal. Not a problem for Republicans yet but could develop into a
headache.
Nebraska.
Thomas McKinless/CQ Roll Call
nominee while former state Senate Majority Whip Jason Allen and state
Sen. Tom Casperson are facing off in the Aug. 2 GOP primary. Benishek
endorsed Casperson, while Allen lost the 2010 primary to Benishek by
15 votes. Lean Republican but could develop into a better Democratic
opportunity.
7th District (Walberg, R). Tim Walberg is a consistent Democratic
target and faces state Rep. Gretchen Driskell in November. Romney won
the district by 3 points in 2012. This is the type of race Democrats need to
win for a majority. Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.
8th District (Bishop, R). Democrats believe freshman Mike Bishop is
untested since the party didn’t make a concerted effort here in 2014. But
their candidate, actress Melissa Gilbert (of Little House on the Prairie
fame) abruptly dropped out of the race citing health problems, and the
party plans to replace her on the ballot with Macomb County assistant
prosecutor Suzanna Shkreli. The 29-year-old attorney has a lot of ground
to make up against the incumbent in a district Romney carried by 3
points. Still Safe GOP for now.
10th District (Open; Miller, R). Candice Miller is retiring, leaving
behind a marginally competitive district that Democrats aren’t factoring
into takeover plans. Wealthy businessman/2014 4th District candidate
Paul Mitchell and state Sen. Phil Pavlov are the frontrunners in the
August primary, while former state Sen. Alan Sanborn is running as well.
Safe for the GOP.
2nd District (Ashford, D). Retired Brigadier General Donald “Bits”
Bacon won the May GOP primary and will face Brad Ashford in the
fall. Romney won
the district in 2012
and Bacon could
run up the score in
Sarpy County with
the proximity to
Offutt Air Force Base.
But Ashford is an
relatively inoffensive
Member who has
been endorsed by
Don Bacon
the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce and the NFIB. A parade-goer recently asked the Congressman
if he was a Republican and Ashford respond, “Ah...I don’t know.
Whatever you want me to be.” That will come up later in the campaign.
Both parties will spend heavily in the cheap Omaha media market. TossUp/Tilt Democratic.
Nevada.
3rd District (Open; Heck, R). Joe Heck’s departure for the Senate
race leaves Democrats with a good takeover opportunity. The party
nominated Jacky Rosen, head of local synagogue, in the June primary.
Former candidate Danny Tarkanian, son of the legendary UNLV
basketball coach, won the GOP nomination over state Senate Majority
Leader Michael Roberson (who had the support of GOP Gov. Brian
Sandoval and others). Tarkanian has some baggage from past financial
problems but Rosen is unproven as a candidate. This is going to be
expensive for both parties. Pure Toss-Up.
4th District (Hardy, R). As a Republican representing a district
Obama carried with 56 percent and 54 percent in the last two presidential
elections, freshman Cresent Hardy is one of the most vulnerable
Continued on page 8
July 14, 2016
7
House Overview: New Hampshire-Pennsylvania
Continued from page 7
incumbents in the country. State Sen. Ruben Kihuen won the competitive
Democratic primary and is the narrow favorite in the general election.
Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.
Harper Polling (R)(IVR) for NRCC, July (LVs)--General Election ballot:
Hardy over Kihuen 38%-36%.
New Hampshire. Sept. 13 primary.
1st District (Guinta, R). Frank Guinta is vulnerable in the primary
and general elections after tangling with the FEC over a campaign loan
from his 2010 race (which he has since paid off). The congressman is
more vulnerable in the primary now that the field has narrowed to
essentially one challenger: businessman Rich Ashooh. GOP chances of
holding the seat might increase if Guinta loses the primary. Democrats
are poised to nominate former Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, whom Guinta
defeated in 2010 and 2014 and lost to in 2012. Republicans’ saving grace
might be Shawn O’Connor who abandoned his bid for the Democratic
nomination and appears determined to run as an Independent. He’d
likely pull disproportionately from Shea-Porter and make it difficult for
her to win the competitive seat. Pure Toss-Up with a lot of uncertainty.
New Jersey.
5th District (Garrett, R). Democratic strategists are determined
to defeat Scott Garrett after he voiced disapproval of the NRCC for
supporting gay candidates. The seven-term congressman has received
some national media attention because some of his previous Wall Street
contributors have declined to donate to him this cycle. Former Bill
Clinton speechwriter Josh Gottheimer is energetic and a good fundraiser
($1.7 million) and gives Democrats a credible challenger. But he is still
virtually unknown in an expensive district to advertise. Still Republican
Favored but could get more competitive.
New York.
1st District (Zeldin, R). Former Southampton Town Supervisor
Anna Throne-Holst won the June 28 Democratic primary by 319
votes and will face Lee Zeldin in the general election. Democrats are
emboldened by the way Zeldin has embraced Trump and stumbled
through a CNN interview where he called President Obama a racist.
But it’s not yet clear that Trump is a liability in the district, and ThroneHolst has to regroup from the primary. Lean Republican, but could get
more competitive.
3rd District (Open; Israel, D). After defending House seats for a
living as chairman of the DCCC, Steve Israel is leaving one behind with
his retirement. Former Nassau County executive Tom Suozzi won the
Democratic nomination and will face GOP state Sen. Jack Martins in
November. This is a rare Republican takeover opportunity. Toss-Up/Tilt
Democratic.
13th District (Open; Rangel, D). After two unsuccessful attempts to
defeat long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, state Sen. Adriano Espaillat won
the Democratic primary to replace the retiring congressman with 37
percent. He’ll be a Member of Congress next year.
19th District (Open; Gibson, R). Chris Gibson stomped his 2014
opponent and promptly announced his retirement. Former state
8
July 14, 2016
Assembly Minority Leader John Faso won the competitive Republican
primary while Fordham law school professor/2014 gubernatorial
candidate Zephyr Teachout won the Democratic nomination. Faso has
been around a long enough to be painted as a politician but Republicans
feel comfortable running against Teachout, who ran to Gov. Andrew
Cuomo’s left in the primary and recently relocated to the district from
Brooklyn. Lean Republican.
21st District (Stefanik, R). Elise Stefanik easily won the open seat
in 2014 but Democrats are trying to cultivate retired Army Officer
Mike Derrick into a top-tier candidate. He’s not there yet. Still Safe
Republican.
22nd District (Open; Hanna, R). Moderate Richard Hanna’s
retirement creates an open seat opportunity for Democrats.
Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney (who held Hanna to a 6-point primary
victory in 2014) won the GOP nomination while Broome County
Legislator Kim Myers, daughter of Dick’s Sporting Goods founder Dick
Stack, is the Democratic nominee. The district is more Republican than
Hanna’s reputation made it seem, but the race could get complicated
if wealthy businessman Martin Babinec makes the ballot as an
independent. He’s donated to Hillary Clinton and President Obama but
is regarded as a center-right candidate. Pure Toss-Up.
23rd District (Reed, R). Democrats believe retired submarine officer
John Plumb is considerably better than their 2014 nominee, Martha
Robertson. But Democrats may have missed their chance to defeat Tom
Reed (when he narrowly won in 2012) in a district Romney won by 2
points. Safe for Republicans.
24th District (Katko, R). Freshman John Katko is one of Republicans’
strongest vulnerable incumbents, but he also represents one of the
most Democratic districts (Obama 57 percent in 2012). Colleen Deacon,
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand’s former regional director, won the Democratic
primary and is a credible contender, although her fundraising for the
primary was mediocre. Toss-Up.
North Carolina.
2nd District (Holding & Ellmers, R). George Holding defeated
Renee Ellmers in the June 7 primary after a redrawn congressional map
pitted the two Republicans against each other. Ellmers home area is in
the new 2nd, but Holding represented more territory. The seat is safe for
Republicans.
13th District (Open; Holding, R). Holding ran for re-election in the
2nd District leaving a Republican leaning seat behind. Gun range owner
Ted Budd finished on top of a 17-candidate primary field with 20 percent
and will be a Member of Congress next year. Budd is likely to join the
Freedom Caucus.
Pennsylvania.
2nd District (VACANT; Fattah, D). State Rep. Dwight Evans
defeated 11-term Rep. Chaka Fattah (who faced a 29-count indictment
on corruption charges) in the April primary. Fattah was subsequently
convicted and resigned. The special election will be held concurrent with
the general election in November. This is a safe Democratic seat.
6th District (Costello, R). Democrats planned to challenge Ryan
Continued on page 9
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections
House Overview: Tennessee-Utah
primary and lost 50-41 percent. Carr lives just outside the district and
Black had nearly $1.3 million in the bank on March 31. Black should be
fine.
8th District (Open; Fincher, R). First elected in 2010, Stephen Fincher
is retiring after just three terms. Thirteen Republicans filed for the open
seat but the race looks likely to come down to former U.S. Attorney
David Kustoff (who lost a 2002 primary to Marsha Blackburn), state Sen.
Brian Kelsey (who represents over 250,000 people), and Shelby County
Mayor Mark Luttrell (who has never experienced a serious partisan
primary). Through the end of March, Kustoff had $316,000 in the bank to
Kelsey’s $426,000 and Luttrell’s $143,000. The seat is safe for Republicans
in November.
Continued from page 8
Costello but after a number of candidates didn’t pan out, the freshman
Republican is no longer in Democrats’ takeover plans. Mike Parrish
is the Democratic nominee but either can’t or won’t raise money but
somehow worked hard enough to keep Lindy Li (who could raise
money) off the ballot. Safe GOP.
7th District (Meehan, R). Patrick Meehan represents a competitive
district in the Philadelphia suburbs but Democrats have turned away
from the race after their preferred candidate, Pastor Bill Golderer, was
soundly defeated by 2014 nominee Mary Ellen Balchunis, 74-26 percent,
in the primary. Safe for Republicans.
8th District (Open; Fitzpatrick R). Republicans initially lined up
behind state Rep. Scott Petri but pushed him aside for Brian Fitzpatrick,
the brother of retiring Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick was working for the FBI in
California. He faces state Rep. Steve Santarsiero in the general election.
This is a must-win seat for Democrats and will test the strength of the
Republicans’ redistricting effort. Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.
16th District (Open; Pitts, R). GOP state Sen. Lloyd Smucker won
the competitive Republican primary to replace retiring Rep. Joe Pitts,
who is leaving a decade after his term limits pledge expired. Democrats
nominated Christina Hartman and strategists are suddenly interested
in the seat. Republicans transferred GOP voters out of the district
during redistricting in order to shore up the more suburban GOP
seats, but the 16th still leans Republican. Obama won the district, 50-49
percent in 2008 but lost it by 7 points in 2012. The interest in the 16th
looks like an effort to keep multiple Pennsylvania districts on the map
after the 6th and 7th have fallen off. Smucker is still recovering from the
primary but is a considerable favorite in the general election. Still Safe
GOP for now.
PPP (D)(IVR) for Hartman, May 3-4 (RVs)--General Election ballot:
Smucker over Hartman 48%-43%.
Texas.
15th District (Open; Hinojosa, D). Ruben Hinojosa is retiring after
10 terms, leaving a safe Democratic open seat behind. Wealthy attorney
Vicente Gonzales won the May 24 runoff over Edinburg School Board
Board Member Juan “Sonny” Palacios Jr. and will be a Member of
Congress next year.
19th District (Open; Neugebauer, R). Randy Neugebauer’s
retirement creates a safe Republican open seat. Lubbock Mayor Glen
Robertson won the runoff over former Texas Tech vice chancellor Jodey
Arrington 54-46 percent and will be a Member of Congress next year.
23rd District (Hurd, R). With Donald Trump’s and Ted Cruz’s antiimmigration rhetoric potentially topping the GOP ticket, Democratic
strategists are excited about taking back this seat. Will Hurd defeated
Democratic Rep. Pete Gallego in a late-breaking race in 2014, and
Gallego is back for a rematch. Hurd has developed into one of
Republicans’ strongest new incumbents, but Democrats are committed
to bringing back Gallego. The Democrats’ campaign released a poll
which showed Gallego up by 8 points, 45-37 percent, but this race
seems destined to be close. Romney won the district by 3 points in
2012. Toss-Up.
Tennessee. Aug. 4 primary.
rothenbergGonzales.com
Utah.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
4th District (DesJarlais, R). Scott DesJarlais won the 2014 primary
by 38 votes amidst stories about inappropriate relationships with
patients, so his
primary is worth
watching this year.
Conservative activist
Grant Starrett has
put together over
a million dollars
with a combination
of fundraising and
personal money, but
he also started the
Scott DesJarlais
race without any
name identification. It’s unclear whether Starrett is too polished for the
rural district and if voters are finally ready to punish DesJarlais for sins
committed a few years ago, but this looks like a serious race at least
because of Starrett’s money. The seat is Safe for Republicans.
6th District (Black, R). Joe Carr is challenging Diane Black in the GOP
primary. He challenged incumbent Lamar Alexander in the 2014 Senate
4th District (Love, R). Mitt Romney won the district with 68 percent
in 2012 but that’s not stopping Democrats from targeting Mia Love,
whom they believe is uniquely vulnerable. Love was initially elected
narrowly, 51-46 percent, in 2014 over Democrat Doug Owens, and faced
a series of negative headlines regarding flight reimbursements and travel
after she took office. Owens is running again, and is a credible challenger,
but he didn’t face any negative ads last time as Love tried to repair her
image from a blistering race against Jim Matheson. Owens won’t be
so fortunate this year and will have to answer for his connections and
past support for Hillary Clinton and President Obama. Love will have
to deal with Trump, who is deeply unpopular with Mormon voters.
But Owens must run with an unpopular Clinton, a transgender activist
running against GOP Sen. Mike Lee and a gubernatorial nominee whose
wife is under investigation for using marijuana. We moved the race to
Republican Favored two weeks ago but Democrats must still prove that
this is a top takeover opportunity.
Continued on page 10
July 14, 2016
9
House Overview: Virginia-Wyoming
Continued from page 9
Virginia.
2nd District (Open; Rigell, R). Three-term GOP Rep. Scott Rigell
isn’t seeking re-election but his colleague Randy Forbes decided to run
for re-election here instead of the 4th, which was redrawn to be more
Democratic. Forbes played up his seniority in Congress, had a significant
financial advantage and was defeated by state Delegate Scott Taylor, 5341 percent in the June primary. Taylor is the prohibitive favorite in the
general election against community organizer Shaun Brown, who lost
four races for Newport News City Council. Safe GOP.
4th District (Open; Forbes, R). A court-ordered redraw of part of
the congressional map turned this into a Democratic seat. State Sen.
Donald McEachin won the Democratic primary and will be a Member of
Congress next year.
5th District (Open; Hurt, R). Three-term GOP Rep. Robert Hurt is
not seeking re-election but Republicans should hold his seat. GOP state
Sen. Tom Garrett is the heavy favorite in November against Albemarle
County Board Chairman Jane Dittmar. Safe for Republicans.
10th District (Comstock, R). Barbara Comstock is a polarizing figure
running for re-election in a competitive Northern Virginia district.
Democratic strategists are excited about real estate developer LuAnn
Bennett, who is also the ex-wife of former 8th District Rep. Jim Moran.
Comstock isn’t safe, but the district is more Republican than when GOP
Candidate Conversation
Tom Nelson (D)
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
Candidate for Wisconsin’s
8th District
Interview Date: June 15, 2016
Date of Birth: March 3, 1976;
St. Paul, Minn.
Education: Carleton College
(B.A. 1998); Princeton Univ.
(M.P.A. 2004)
Political Office: Outagamie County Executive; State Assembly (former);
2010 Lt. Gov. nominee
Current Outlook: Nelson will be the Democratic nominee in the
competitive open seat left by GOP Rep. Reid Ribble’s retirement. He’ll
face either state Sen. Frank Lasee or former Scott Walker advisor Mike
Gallagher in the general election. The GOP primary is August 9. The race
is rated a Pure Tossup.
Evaluation: Nelson was low-key and personable. This is his first run for
Congress, but early in his career he worked for Democratic consultant
Harrison Hickman and he’s run for office a half-dozen times, so he’s not
a political neophyte. He might have been a little over-confident in how
transferable his local profile is to a race for federal office, but Nelson
looks like a good candidate and Republicans admit he is Democrats’ best
recruit for the seat. The Democrat does have a long record (including tax
increases) to be picked apart in the general election, but it’s still not clear
how strong the Republican nominee will be.
10
July 14, 2016
Rep. Frank Wolf was in office and she had nearly $1.8 million in her
campaign account on May 24. Bennett had $627,000 but has personal
money to invest. Lean Republican and Democrats need it make it more
competitive.
Washington. August 2 Top Two primary.
7th District (Open; McDermott, D). Longtime liberal Rep. Jim
McDermott is retiring from one of the most Democratic districts in the
country, where Obama received 79 percent in 2012, and it looks likely that
two Democrats will face off in November, due to Washington’s primary
system. King County Council Chairman Joe McDermott (no relation to the
congressman) is well-positioned for one runoff slot while state Rep. Brady
Walkinshaw and state Sen. Pramila Jayapal battle for the other one.
West Virginia.
2nd District (Mooney, R). Democrats would love to defeat Alex
Mooney, the former Maryland state senator who won the GOP open seat
in 2014. But former state Delegate Mark Hunt defeated Army attorney
Cory Simpson (the party establishment’s preferred choice) in the May
primary, putting an end to Democrats’ scenario to win the seat this cycle.
Safe GOP.
Wisconsin. Aug. 9 primary.
1st District (Ryan, R). Keeping the House Republican Conference
together is more than a full-time job for Speaker Paul Ryan. He also faces
a primary challenge from businessman Paul Nehlen. Nehlen describes
Ryan as a “Globalist” and “not an American patriot.” If former Speaker
John Boehner’s past primaries are a guide, it’s not hard to see Nehlen
getting 35-40 percent of the vote. But defeating Ryan would be an epic
upset. It doesn’t look like it’s happening.
8th District (Open; Ribble, R). Reid Ribble’s retirement presents
Democrats with a good takeover opportunity. They are likely to
nominate Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson. Former Foreign
Relations Committee staffer/Scott Walker foreign policy aide Mike
Gallagher is the GOP frontrunner but faces state Sen. Frank Lasee in a
competitive Republican primary. President Barack Obama carried the
northeastern Wisconsin district, which includes Green Bay and Appleton,
by 9 points in 2008 but lost it by 4 points in 2012. Pure Toss-Up.
Wyoming. Aug. 16 primary.
At-Large (Open; Lummis, R). Cynthia Lummis, the only female
member of the House Freedom Caucus, is retiring, leaving a safe
Republican open seat behind. Ten Republicans are running for the seat,
but the top contenders are Liz Cheney, daughter of Vice President/
former Wyoming Rep. Dick Cheney, state Sen. Leland Christensen and
state Rep. Tim Stubson. Cheney lapped the field in early fundraising (she
raised over $750,000) compared to the $55,000 and $99,000 Christensen
and Stubson had on hand on March 31. Cheney is a polarizing figure
in local GOP circles for alleged carpetbagging and challenging Sen.
Mike Enzi in 2014 (she dropped out before the primary). But the
two Legislators might divide the anti-Cheney vote and her financial
advantage might cure other problems. In any scenario, the seat should
stay in GOP hands in November.
Nonpartisan Analysis of Politics and Elections