Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)
Transcription
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR)
Equity Research LOS ANGELES | SAN FRANCISCO | NEW YORK | BOSTON | CHICAGO | MINNEAPOLIS | MILWAUKEE | SEATTLE Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) May 28, 2015 Price Initiating Coverage at NEUTRAL: Pullback Warranted in Light of Uncertain Hot, Cold Futures $88.75 • Expectations reset, but Keurig 2.0 and Kold questions act as ongoing drag. We believe expectations surrounding GMCR’s 2.0 platform and upcoming Keurig Kold launch have been appropriately reset, but see limited visibility into incremental opportunities of both at the present time. With noticeable incremental spending in FY15/16 behind both, we believe GMCR is unlikely to experience meaningful earnings acceleration that would justify a premium multiple to current levels. • Keurig adoption rates continue to rise, but we believe growth is becoming more difficult. A challenging FY15 holiday season for Keurig’s 2.0 launch showed that the company may face headwinds bringing in incremental consumers to the system at its current premium state of 4-6x per serving vs. bagged coffee. Keurig’s recent launch of a lower-priced K250 is a step in the right direction, but does not identify a meaningful solution to solving this conundrum. Furthermore, we are concerned regarding long-term implications of unlicensed manufacturers. In essence, we are concerned GMCR is overearning on K-Cup portfolio in relation to its long-term expected annuity stream from its install base target. • Operating costs and inflation likely to be headwinds in FY15 and FY16. GMCR experienced a step-up in investments behind Keurig 2.0 in early FY15, and we expect further incremental support for its Kold launch in 2H, both without true upside potential. In addition, favorable coffee costs experienced over FY13/14 are beginning to reverse, limiting potential gross margin improvements. GMCR therefore appears set up to match or deleverage given slowing top-line growth. • Keurig Kold presents more questions than answers. GMCR’s recent announcement of a relatively “soft” holiday 2015 launch online, we believe, is evidence of mixed progress in making a superior platform to current carbonated beverage consumption. Based on launch timing, we don’t expect meaningful accretion until FY17, when GMCR will ideally work towards integrating hot/cold systems into one single-serve machine. Rating NEUTRAL 12-Month Price Target $100 Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 [email protected] Company Information Shares Outst (M) 154.0 Market Cap (B) $13.7 52-Wk Range $88.01 - $158.87 Book Value/sh $17.50 Cash/sh $0.88 Enterprise Value (M) $14.1 LT Debt/Cap % 16% Company Description Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. produces and sells specialty coffee, coffeemakers, teas, and other beverages in the United States and Canada. • Our price target of $100 implies GMCR shares trade below their 5-year average. Broadly, we believe GMCR has some unique opportunities to grow over the next 5+ years and has the characteristics of a company Coca-Cola would have interest in (see page 2), but looking at the next 24-36 months, earnings growth may prove difficult, and therefore, GMCR shares deserve a discount to prior averages. FYE Sep 2014A REV (M) ACTUAL CURR. 2015E Q1 Dec Q2 Mar Q3 Jun Q4 Sep Year* Change $1,387A $1,103A $1,022A $1,196A $4,708A 8% $1,386E $1,127E $1,044E $1,309E $4,866E 3% EPS ACTUAL CURR. $0.96A $1.08A $0.99A $0.90A $3.93A 23x 16% $0.88E $1.03E $0.80E $1.00E $3.71E 24x -5% Healthy Lifestyles 2014A Q1 Dec Q2 Mar Q3 Jun Q4 Sep Year* P/E Change PREV. 2016E CONS. CURR. $1,461E 1,152E 1,044E 1,225E $4,783E $1,544E $1,250E $1,172E $1,308E $5,275E 8% CONS. CURR. $0.89E 1.05E 0.80E 0.98E $3.69E $0.90E $1.20E $1.04E $0.97E $4.12E 22x 11% 2015E PREV. PREV. CONS. $1,527E 1,267E 1,160E 1,386E $5,366E 2016E PREV. CONS. $0.98E 1.18E 0.92E 1.09E $4.20E Source: Thomson Reuters Consensus estimates are from Thomson First Call. * Numbers may not add up due to rounding. Wedbush Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Please see page 20 of this report for analyst certification and important disclosure information. Investment Thesis/ Summary We are launching coverage of Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) with a NEUTRAL rating and $100 PT. We believe GMCR has reached impressive scale in its legacy hot platform and will continue to grow adoption rates domestically in coming years. Unfortunately, our concern is that long-term growth for Keurig’s legacy platform may fail to reach company adoption/usage targets without negative changes to pricing structure. Furthermore, we remain concerned that Keurig has the most to lose as the dominant share player in the hot category to unlicensed competitors, is facing materially higher gross and operating costs from rising coffee and sales costs (behind launch of 2.0 and Kold platforms), and that we have minimal visibility into the true long-term market potential and/or viability of GMCR’s upcoming cold beverage platform. Although shares have reset in light of these concerns, we believe GMCR will face difficulty gaining positive momentum even at current valuation levels. • • • • • Keurig adoption rates continue to rise, but growth is becoming more difficult. Keurig sold over 10M single-serve coffee brewers in FY14 (not including partner brewers), an impressive feat given the company estimated there were at least 17M installed brewers domestically in September of 2013. We believe adoption is on track to slow meaningfully, and the Keurig’s 2.0 platform launch in its current state is likely to drive upgrading consumers, rather than incremental users, into the platform. In total, we do believe GMCR can reach 30M+ domestic households (~24M currently, by our estimates) but still a far cry from the 90M+ domestic households with some form of coffee brewer at present. By our math, we believe GMCR needs to capture ~24M households over the next 3.5 years to reach its targets laid out in 2013, which may be unrealistic at current price points for K-Cups and Keurigs. Keurig 2.0 seeing unlicensed portion pack entrants. Despite efforts to utilize proprietary technology and sign incremental brand and private label partners, major unlicensed competitors to GMCR have found ways to manufacture and distribute 2.0compatible portion packs. If this direction continues to hold, we believe GMCR is at risk to face a more commoditized pricing structure to its coffee K-Cup revenue stream over time. Most recently, GMCR’s November 2014 price increase was met with steep resistance, as manufacturers across the industry have operated in a promotional environment over the last few months. Operating costs, cost inflation likely material headwinds in FY15 for first time in several years. GMCR experienced a step-up in investments behind Keurig 2.0 in early FY15, and we expect further incremental support for its Kold launch in 2H, both without true upside potential. In addition, favorable coffee costs experienced over FY13/14 are beginning to reverse, limiting potential gross margin improvements. GMCR profits therefore appear set up to match or deleverage slowing top-line growth, and exclusive of D&A and G&A, we are forecasting unfavorable sales and cost of goods expenses. Keurig Kold has some promise, but long-term concerns and questions linger for now. GMCR’s recent announcement of a relatively “soft” holiday 2015 launch online, we believe, is evidence of mixed progress in making a superior platform to current carbonated beverage consumption. Based on launch timing, we don’t expect potential accretion until FY17, when GMCR will ideally work towards integrating hot/cold systems into one single-serve machine. We also have additional concerns that GMCR may face difficulty reaching an initially high-end “choice” consumer on carbonated beverages, an industry that has faced at least modest volume pressure. Last, GMCR is facing legacy competition from SodaStream and other hot/cold beverage makers, as well as potentially B.Blend (Whirlpool, InBev offering), which launched a test recently in Brazil. We view any competitive concerns as overblown for now given GMCR’s knowledge in single-serve marketing and point to its success outperforming competitors with far greater resources (Tassimo, etc.) in single-serve coffee over the last ~10 years, although we are modestly concerned that SodaStream has already been purchased by avid carbonated soda drinkers in the U.S., Keurig’s key market. In total, earnings growth reacceleration looks unachievable in FY17. We believe consensus for an earnings reacceleration in FY17 is overly optimistic based on the above factors. In particular, we believe Kold may not reach the critical mass needed for meaningful accretion (likely 3M+ makers), while Keurig’s hot platform is likely to face increased price and market share pressure from competitors, lowering overall profits. We walk through our financial assumptions in greater detail on page 4. Bottom Line: We believe GMCR’s recurring K-Cup revenue stream and recent product initiatives give the company a long-term attractiveness to partner Coke (as an M&A/partner candidate similar to prior acquisitions and recent Monster stake), but in the near/medium term, GMCR has pricing structure problems in the hot platform and a very uncertain outlook in cold beverages. If the company’s pricing structure in K-Cups faces pressure and incremental costs associated with 2.0 and cold launches continue to pressure margins, we believe GMCR deserves a discount to its historical valuations given unlikelihood of returning to double-digit earnings growth in the near future. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 2 Valuation GMCR shares trade at a slight discount to their historical average in light of the company’s Coke agreement and long-term Keurig Kold potential. GMCR shares trade at 24.0x and 21.4x FY15 and FY16 forward earnings, compared to their 26.6x 5-year average and ~mid-20s average P/Es for comparable beverage growth peers MNST and SODA. However, since GMCR’s partnership announcement with Coca-Cola on Keurig Kold in February of last year, the company’s shares have traded at the higher end of their historical range at 25-40x. On a forward EV/EBITDA basis, GMCR shares trade at ~11.8x and ~10.6x our September-end FY15 and FY16 estimates, respectively, versus the company’s 5-year TTM EBITDA average of ~18.2x. Fluctuations in GMCR’s earnings growth as well as positive and negative news flow have driven noticeable swings in GMCR’s valuation over the years. In 2012, GMCR decelerated noticeably from high-double-digit/low-triple-digit earnings growth in the previous two years, while, most recently, the company alluded to the belief that following FY15/16 investment years, the company is likely to reaccelerate earnings growth into the double-digit range in FY17 and beyond. Our price target of $100 based on ~24x our FY15E EPS of $4.12 implies GMCR shares trade below their 5-year average. Despite slowing growth, we believe Keurig Kold, likely reduced marketing spend by Keurig 2.0, and international growth should allow GMCR to modestly accelerate earnings growth towards the end of FY16 into FY17, returning to low-double-digit rates. While certainly not at the 40%+ growth experienced several years ago, we believe GMCR shares should trade just below their 5-year average given long-term prospects behind the company’s potential incremental opportunity in carbonated beverages, recurring revenue stream in KCups, still increasing brand equity, and partnership with Coca-Cola. Figure 1: GMCR Historical Valuation 70x 60x Einhorn Raises Acccounting and Fundamental ?s Coca-Cola Stake + Partnership Announced 50x 40x 30x 20x 10x x GMCR MNST SODA Source: Thomson Reuters, Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 3 Financial Summary We are forecasting a revenue growth reacceleration in FY16 but almost entirely on incremental Kold sales. We are modeling ~3% revenue growth in FY15 to $4.866B, a deceleration from high-single-digit growth in FY14 and low-teens the prior year. Without incremental growth in GMCR’s install base and lessened pressure from unlicensed offerings, GMCR may experience a similar stepdown in growth in FY16. We are modeling $5.275B in FY16 revenues or ~8% y/y growth (versus $5.366B consensus), but excluding soda impact would equate to sub-5% growth. For FY17, we are modeling $5.863B (versus $6.251B consensus), assuming Keurig Kold gains at least modest traction and reaches ~2-3M in total maker unit sales. On the profitability front, we are forecasting compression of gross margin in FY15 of ~180 bps, followed by a ~110 bps decline in FY16 and a 70 bps decline in FY17. Our decline forecasts are based on a combination of expectation for higher coffee costs not fully offset by pricing, increased promotional activity, and negative mix drag associated with brewer and soda maker sales. We are modeling EPS of $0.80 in 3Q15 (in line with consensus), $3.71 in FY15 ($3.69 consensus), $4.12 in FY16 ($4.20 consensus), and $4.65 in FY17 ($5.01 consensus). We believe factors to our below-consensus estimates in our years relate to below-average sales for hot platform, higher than expected costs surrounding future beverage maker launches, and failure for meaningful Kold adoption rates in FY17. Figure 2: GMCR Annual EPS Growth, FY07-FY17E (left), GMCR Revenues Assumptions (in millions, right) $5.00 $4.65 $4.50 $4.12 $7,000 14% $6,000 12% $5,000 10% $4,000 8% $3,000 6% $2,000 4% $1,000 2% $3.93 $4.00 $3.71 $3.40 $3.50 $3.00 $2.39 $2.50 $2.00 $1.63 $1.50 $1.00 $0.68 $0.50 $0.36 $0.12 $0.19 $0.00 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E FY17E $0 0% FY13 FY14 FY15E Single-Serve Packs Brewers/Accessories Kold (Machines + Packs) Total Y/Y Growth FY16E FY17E Other Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Risks Risks to attainment of our price target include but are not limited to: • Better/worse-than-expected immediate adoption of Keurig Kold. GMCR alluded to a late FY14 launch of Keurig Kold, with an initial runway more rapid than the legacy At-Home hot platform but still relatively small versus GMCR’s current Keurig Hot sales rate. If Keurig Kold adoption and acceptance from consumers is better than anticipated, GMCR could seemingly ramp sales efforts and generate better-than-expected earnings accretion as early as FY16. To the flip side, GMCR’s launch may face future pressure from SodaStream and/or future launches of competing soda makers (Whirlpool’s drink maker, for example). • Surprising (positive or negative) spend behind Keurig 2.0 or Kold marketing and sales efforts. We are expecting a noticeable step up in FY15 in costs as GMCR promotes both its Keurig 2.0 launch (spend up meaningfully y/y in 2014 Decemberend 1Q) and upcoming Keurig Kold launch. If GMCR were to get better- or worse-than-expected traction, this would materially affect each platform’s outlook given its razor/razor blade model. • Valuation. Despite the recent pullback, GMCR shares still trade at a slight premium to their 5-year average. Given slowing growth rates and uncertain Keurig Kold consumer adoption, we believe GMCR’s multiple has a risk of continuing to contract with visibility towards an earnings reacceleration. • Input cost volatility. Although GMCR’s green coffee costs are mostly hedged for FY15, the company still holds longer-term risk to fluctuations in coffee prices (which represent ~one-third of K-Cup COGS). Unfavorable or favorable rates may positively or negatively impact GMCR given their ability or inability to pass along or hold pricing for K-Cups at retail. • Increased K-Cup competition from unlicensed portion packs. Despite efforts to successfully lock out single-cup competitors with the Keurig 2.0 system, competitors have begun to manufacture 2.0 compatible cups. GMCR may face risk of future commoditization and/or loss of branded and private label partner losses as a result. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 4 Investment Merits Keurig 2.0 Despite recent innovation, Keurig’s legacy hot platform may struggle to gain incremental adoption from current levels. Keurig sold over 10M single-serve coffee brewers in FY14 (not including partner brewers), an impressive feat given the company estimated there were at least 17M installed brewers domestically in September of 2013. However, we believe materially increasing Keurig’s currently estimated 24M domestic household base may prove difficult. Despite below average penetration in certain domestic markets such as San Francisco (under 10% penetration, well below nationwide ~25% penetration), Keurig still faces the challenge of driving actual incremental middle income consumers into the system to achieve a larger share of the 90M domestic at-home coffee market. Using a more realistic ~60-65M assumption of actual households that may purchase a brewer, 51M brewers sold lifetime and ~25M estimated in service, we believe Keuirg would have to reach 24M total incremental households and sell roughly half to reach their target over the next 3.5 years. Figure 3: GMCR Brewer Sales Versus Estimated Install Base and Targeted Opportunity 160% GMCR targeting ~36M brewer install base by FY18 (~4M incremental brewers a year from est. FY14 levels), or just under 8M brewers sold a year including historical attrition despite difficult y/y comparisons 140% 40000 Wedbush Estimated Math to Reach Brewer Target: 35000 ~51M brewer units sold lifetime 120% 30000 100% 25000 80% 20000 60% 15000 40% 10000 20% 5000 0% 60% or 30M units sold in last 36 months ~25M estimated “active” in service Assuming GMCR sold ~40M of ~60-65M households already likely to purchase a Keurig brewer. 24M households left to try and capture over next 3.5 years 0 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 Install Base (Thousands) Install Base Y/Y Growth Y/Y Sales Growth Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. At least for now, Keurig 2.0 has not proved to be a silver bullet, but rather, an incremental expense. Despite material spending behind Keurig 2.0, GMCR’s sell-through has disappointed investors, down double-digits on a y/y basis, and has faced substantial criticism from customers. We believe this is attributable to: 1) 2) 3) 4) Premium-priced 2.0 brewers still sold at a triple-digit dollar value. Despite a K-Carafe feature, we believe this generally was perceived to be a poor value proposition to legacy consumers. Meanwhile, most consumers who had planned to purchase a $150-200 brewer for themselves or as a gift had likely done so in past. Unfavorable initial reviews related to the new machines not accepting unlicensed portion packs. 2.0 products received poor review ratings on Amazon (as shown on following page) and other online retailers, likely further fueling skepticism among consumers towards the benefits of upgrading or gifting. GMCR accelerated marketing investments early in the launch cycle, according to surveys, with various coupons and other rebates. The step-up in spend actually accelerated the negative impact of the first two points. An impressive ~5M sell-through rate of Keurig 1.0 brewers in holidays 2014, which makes the 2015 season particularly difficult as large batches of consumers had recently purchased Keurigs over the last 1-2 years. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 5 Figure 4: K300 Amazon Front Page Reviews Source: Amazon.com, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Looking ahead, we see GMCR’s 2.0 conversion continuing to occur slower than expected, and not converting as many drinking experiences as hoped. Low/mid income consumers may still face difficulty adapting a platform with even a $100-125 price point, given GMCR has sold its legacy 1.0 platform at these levels for the last several years. Figure 5: GMCR Changing Keurig 2.0 Strategy Per 2Q15 Call versus Wedbush Vantage Point TACTIC LAUNCH OF LOWER PRICED K250 MODELS ($119) IMPROVED PACKAGING COMMUNICATION (FOCUS ON BRAND VARIETY) REINTRODUCING MY K-CUP ACCESSORY BREWER ENHANCEMENTS (EASIER HOT WATER DISPENSE, TEMP CONTROL, ETC.) INCREMENTAL PROMOTIONAL PROGRAMS W/ RETAILERS TO LOWER INVENTORY WEDBUSH TAKE 1.0 platform also had ~$100-125 value-oriented brewer, therefore it will be tough to add incremental consumers. Attachment rate unlikely to be similar to K350/450 models despite management comments that reservoir adds differentiated factor versus Keurig Mini. Wide range of clearly labeled Keurig-compatible K-Cups directly adjacent to brewers already sold at many retailers. May improve negative rating impact in online sector, but small portion of market unlikely to actually improve Keurig machine sell-through. Admittedly nice features, but no major innovations warranting upgrade cycle outside of K-Carafe, which is featured on current 2.0 line. May drive some incremental conversion, but at the expense of margin to GMCR in form of investment costs. Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 6 Higher Costs / Overearning in Hot System? Higher costs should limit GMCR margin growth in FY15 and likely FY16. On the gross margin front, ~one-third of GMCR’s K-Cup cost profile is coffee costs, with the remainder divided between other inputs including labor, logistics, and other costs. With coffee costs reversing over the last 12+ months, GMCR has begun to experience coffee input cost pressure, forcing them to raise pricing in early November of 2014. Looking ahead, while the company is 95%+ locked in on coffee in FY15, these higher levels may continue to pressure company volumes on premium-priced (and likely higher-margin) coffee branded items. We believe GMCR’s weak 2Q15 volume performance, after factoring in additionally signed K-Cup partners, was attributable to actual negative consumer elasticity from recent pricing actions rather than weak Keurig holiday sell-through (since typically, Keurig sales are on a lag to material purchases). Furthermore, incremental unlicensed companies have successfully entered Keurig’s 2.0 platform, which may further pressure overall pricing structure. We are concerned premium price points of 4-6x for Keurig K-cups versus bagged coffee equivalents may be forced to compress as additional incremental consumers enter into hot system (see prior section). Figure 6: Coffee Composite Prices (U.S. cents/lb, left), K-Cup Segment Pricing Impact (right) ICO - Composite Indicator Thomson Spot "C" Price 2Q15 1Q15 -5% 4Q14 0% 3Q14 0 1Q15 pricing actions met with heavy resistance 2Q14 5% 1Q14 50 4Q13 10% 3Q13 100 2Q13 15% 1Q13 150 4Q12 20% 3Q12 200 2Q12 25% 1Q12 250 4Q11 30% 3Q11 300 Successful FY11 pricing actions as platform grows rapidly without unlicensed competition 2Q11 35% 1Q11 350 -10% Source: ICO, Thomson Reuters, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Figure 7: GMCR Estimated Sensitivity to Coffee Costs, 2016E K-Cup Coffee Costs 15% K-Cup Revenues 4263 Other Revenues (Machines, Kold, 1012 etc.) Consolidated Revenues 5275 Cost of Goods Sold 3219 Gross Profit 2055 10% 4263 1012 5275 3181 2094 5% 4263 1012 5275 3143 2132 4263 1012 5275 3104 2170 -5% 4263 1012 5275 3066 2209 -10% 4263 1012 5275 3028 2247 -15% 4263 1012 5275 2989 2285 Depreciation & Amortization Selling & Operating General & Administrative Operating Profit 280 655 239 881 280 655 239 919 280 655 239 957 280 655 239 996 280 655 239 1034 280 655 239 1073 280 655 239 1111 Interest Income (Expense) Other Income (Expense) Pre-Tax Income (6) (8) 867 (6) (8) 905 (6) (8) 943 (6) (8) 982 (6) (8) 1020 (6) (8) 1059 (6) (8) 1097 Tax Rate Noncontrolling Interest Net Income 35% (1) 563 35% (1) 588 35% (1) 613 35% (1) 638 35% (1) 663 35% (1) 688 35% (1) 713 Shares Oustanding Diluted EPS Forward P/E 155 $3.63 27.5 155 $3.79 26.4 155 $3.95 25.3 155 $4.12 24.3 155 $4.28 23.4 155 $4.44 22.5 155 $4.60 21.7 Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 7 GMCR should also experience a negative mix from signed partners. On its most recent call, CEO Brian Kelly indicated the company experiences some operating profit differences between partner pods into its legacy hot system, in contrast to GMCR’s situation in late 2013 when the company was experiencing neutral impact from an operating profit perspective. To retain partners as unlicensed manufacturers attempt to win back GMCR’s recently signed partnerships, we expect GMCR to have to continually offer concessions to retain as many branded and private label partners as possible in 2.0. Therefore, in addition to top-line mix implications of partner brand signings, we expect GMCR to suffer on the actual profit line from incremental brands signed over the last 12+ months. Figure 8: Estimated GMCR K-Cup Portfolio Structure at Risk Without Profit Shortfalls FY14 FY15/6 Notable Signed Partners Target private label, Wal-Mart private label, Peet’s, Kraft (Maxwell House, Gevalia) Potential losses, likely on private label business Estimated Share Won or Given Back ~8-10% of total K-Cup market One-third of prior wins Revenue Implications Top-line growth, but not 1-for-1 given various agreements (what portion of to-market process retained by brand owner) Negative top-line drag as Kraft deal phases out in calendar 2015 Earnings Implications Profit headwind, likely from forcing signings of major players ahead of Keurig 2.0 launch Concessions likely to lead to negative profit implications Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Incremental costs also should continue into future. Even with a soft launch of Keurig Kold, we expect meaningful spend from GMCR behind both “getting it right” with Keurig 2.0 as well as its online-only Kold launch in holidays 2015 (1Q16). With incremental SG&A spend, we therefore believe GMCR is set up to actually deleverage on the EBIT margin line in both FY15 and FY16, in contrast to improving EBIT margin consistently over the last 5+ years. Figure 9: GMCR Annual Operating Margin, FY10-FY17E 25% 20.9% 20% 18.6% 15.7% 16.1% FY11 FY12 19.1% 18.9% 18.6% FY15E FY16E FY17E 15% 11.3% 10% 5% 0% FY10 FY13 FY14 Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 8 Figure 10: GMCR Sensitivity to K-Cup Pricing, 2016E K-Cup Pricing K-Cup Revenues Other Revenues (Machines, Kold, etc.) Consolidated Revenues Cost of Goods Sold Gross Profit -3% 4135 1012 5147 3104 2042 -2% 4178 1012 5190 3104 2085 -1% 4220 1012 5232 3104 2128 4263 1012 5275 3104 2170 1% 4306 1012 5317 3104 2213 2% 4348 1012 5360 3104 2256 3% 4391 1012 5403 3104 2298 Depreciation & Amortization Selling & Operating General & Administrative Operating Profit 280 655 239 868 280 655 239 911 280 655 239 953 280 655 239 996 280 655 239 1038 280 655 239 1081 280 655 239 1124 Interest Income (Expense) Other Income (Expense) Pre-Tax Income (6) (8) 854 (6) (8) 897 (6) (8) 939 (6) (8) 982 (6) (8) 1024 (6) (8) 1067 (6) (8) 1110 Tax Rate Noncontrolling Interest Net Income 35% (1) 555 35% (1) 582 35% (1) 610 35% (1) 638 35% (1) 666 35% (1) 693 35% (1) 721 Shares Oustanding Diluted EPS Forward P/E 155 $3.58 27.9 155 $3.76 26.6 155 $3.94 25.4 155 $4.12 24.3 155 $4.29 23.3 155 $4.47 22.4 155 $4.65 21.5 Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 9 Keurig Kold Long-term challenges to Keurig Kold reaching the critical mass success that GMCR’s legacy hot platform has attained. On the one hand, a successful launch and adoption of Keurig Kold could generate sizable earnings accretion in FY16 and beyond for GMCR, as our sensitivity analysis below indicates. However, we believe there are enough impediments/questions to the upcoming Kold platform that without better visibility it’s difficult to expect GMCR’s Kold to reach the consumer acceptance levels of its legacy hot platform. The primary impediments, we believe, are as follows: Figure 11: Challenges for Kold versus Hot platform Considerations Keurig Legacy Hot System Keurig Kold Convenience A) brewed 1-cup substantially faster than traditional athome methods A) will take 60 secs to deliver, versus “instantly” opening a can of pop B) reduced waste for single cup users. B) counterspace requirement versus refrigerator space requirement C) paying substantial price premium per serving on more traditional soda offerings Positives: A) “perfect” temperature and carbonation every time vs resealable sodas, B) incremental variety in offerings, C) less weight carrying pods home from store than soda Cost (cups/pods) 4-6x more expensive than traditional drip methods on per serving basis, half to one-fifth the cost of away from home single-cups Priced at $0.99-1.29 initially, a 2-4x premium to ready-to-drink grocery carbonated soda mediums per serving and 3x cost “athome” soda making machines like SodaStream Branding Mostly fragmented industry Two players make up dominant share (including GMCR’s partner KO), private label less prevalent Competition A) Compete(d) with several single-serve competitors owned by large corporations (Bosch, Starbucks, etc.), but generally competitor was small portion of large CPG’s business A) Essentially one major competitor, SodaStream – entire business model is built on sales of soda machines, carbonation C02, and syrups B) Real competitor is classic at-home ready-to-drink soda B) Real competition was premium away-from-home coffee Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Expectations for Keurig’s upcoming Kold platform have reset following its launch party. With many breadcrumb offerings from GMCR since September 2013, following its May launch party for Kold, we now know the following key points: 1) 2) 3) Timing: GMCR plans for a “soft” online-only launch in late FY15, followed a more meaningful launch at retail progressively over FY16 and full nationwide roll out by holidays of that calendar year. This implies the machine’s ramp will be well below bull expectations, with “hundreds of thousands of units” sold in year one. Price: Keurig Kold’s retail price $299-369, pods $0.99-1.29 per serving. This compares to $80-200 for average Keurig hot system brewers currently and $50-100 average price points for SodaStream makers domestically. On pods, this would equate to a 3-4x approximate premium versus SodaStream, 12-pack and 2 liter soda offerings and a more modest 10-30% premium versus single-serve PET. Process: Machines use a patented system to create perfect temperature controlled soda in 60 seconds. Pods are recyclable (unlike hot system K-Cups) and the system allows for identical carbonation each use. Pods have a 6-12 month shelf life, far longer that of average hot K-Cups. Based on now-released details, our major concerns, among others, include 1) the system will not be meaningfully accretive to GMCR at current price points to consumers based on lower-than-expected consumption rates and install base growth, and 2) margin rates may fail to reach levels seen in its recurring hot system K-Cup stream. For starters, assuming GMCR continues at a high-end price point for at least one year, it may fail to reach material household penetration growth without substantial manufacturer price discounting. Furthermore, GMCR’s plan to launch numerous in-house brands helping fuel consumer “choice”, a key proposition of the new system, may face headwinds as the branded soda base spend includes substantial marketing costs in in-store promotional activity. GMCR may therefore be forced to further accelerate price investments in an already expense-heavy new platform in cold beverages. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 10 Figure 12: Estimated Key Variables to Keurig Kold Consumption versus Legacy System Driver Keurig Legacy Hot System Keurig Kold Servings Per “Active” Maker ~1.3 ~0.75 Capturing a large portion of ~1.8 estimated daily At-Home coffee occasions Captures a far smaller portion of ~3.45 estimated daily At-Home carbonated beverage occasions, owing to price point and preparation time ~10-15% initial returns ~15% initial returns ~10% obsolescence (annually) ~10% obsolescence (annually) ~10% inactive/low activity brewers ~25% inactive/low activity carbonated beverage drinkers Blended Attrition of Existing Machines Total Attrition Over 12-24 month time horizon: Total Attrition Over 12-24 month time horizon: 30-35% 45-50% Product Sales Given Initial Price Point Gross Margin $80-200 price range $299-369 price range Alternative shopping ideas: High-end blender, High-end indoor grilling offerings Comparable shopping ideas: Espresso Machine, GoPro (holiday gift), various Stainless Steel kitchen offerings, entry-level iPad ~50% (estimated) ~50% Assumes similar margin structure to hot system Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. With limited visibility, we are forecasting approximately ~1M sales of soda makers in the first ~15 months of sales. We estimate ~0.75 beverages consumed per day, per maker, versus the ~3.5 carbonated beverage servings on average consumed by households (or ~5.5 including cold beverages without dairy). In terms of accretion, we are estimating dilution in both 4Q15 and FY16 as Keurig invests behind Kold and experiences limited growth. Importantly, we believe key factors for Keurig Kold, namely consumption per maker and actually sustainable gross margin, will not be materially visible until mid-FY17 at the earliest. Other bull/bear considerations to the downside for Keurig Kold are as follows: Figure 13: GMCR Bull/Bear Arguments + Carbonated beverage marketing at-home is far larger than coffee/hot tea. + Keurig Kold will offer households more “choice” than having to buy same 12-pack for entire family. + Further leverages “Keurig” name, offers incremental patent-protected opportunity. + Further negotiating power with retailers. + Although other machines have limited success (SodaStream, Esio, etc.) GMCR should be able to utilize far greater resources to market product. - “Custom” brands may be tough given plb penetration in rest of soda. Custom brands in Keurig 1.0 drove product initially, this time around brands are launching at same time. - People were actually familiar before with hot system from office side of business on 1.0. - Small launch cycle may prove gaining critical mass from a marketing standpoint difficult. - Little discussion of how GMCR will be able to transition soda making machine from a “premium” ~$300 product to a “mainstream” offering to eventually increase household penetration. - The market is small for soda and shrinking. High-end consumers are less likely to drink many carbonated offerings versus coffee. Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 11 Company Background Keurig Green Mountain is the dominant domestic single-cup coffee and brewer manufacturer. Waterbury, Vermont-based Keurig Green Mountain was founded in the 1980s as a local specialty coffee establishment. The company began shipping its bagged coffee product externally and held a partial ownership of “Keurig” coffee brewers in the early 2000s, before purchasing the full platform in June 2006 and enhancing its focus on K-Cup sales for Keurig single-serve-coffee brewers. After purchase, from 2006-2010, GMCR transitioned the Keurig platform from an office-coffee-platform concentrated mainly in the New England region to a national brand with a wide range of home and office brewer offerings. Today, we estimate Keurig K-Cup and K-Cup-compatible machines are placed in ~20 million households and at least 1M away from home locations including hotels, offices, and foodservice locations. Product is featured across a wide range of brick and mortar retail and online channels – in FY14, 10%+ customers include Costco (12% of sales) and WalMart (17%). Keurig brewers and K-cups for use in these machines now represent the lion’s share of GMCR revenues. Figure 14: Estimated Keurig Brewer Install Base Growth, 2006-Present (left), FY14 Business Segment Mix (right) 25000 140% 120% 20000 Single Serve Packs 77% 100% 15000 80% 60% 10000 Other Products and Royalties 6% 40% 5000 20% 0 0% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Units (Thousands) Brewers/Access ories 17% Y/Y Growth Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Figure 15: GMCR Hot Portfolio Key Historical Timeline 2006, May – GMCR purchase remaining interest in Keurig 2006-2009 – Triple-digit CAGR for Keurig coffee makers as GMCR sells Keurig in At-Home vs Away-From-Home channels 2010-2012 – ~50%+ CAGR in brewer sales and high-double-digit K-Cup sales growth 2012, Spring – Launch of Vue system, disappointing sell-through 2012, December – Key patents roll off for K-Cup technology 2013, September – Keurig indicates it estimates a ~16-17M install base, ~34M Keurig brewers sold lifetime. 2014 – Keurig begins to aggressively sign unlicensed portion pack manufacturers into GMCR system 2014, September – Keurig launches 2.0 system Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Keurig’s portfolio comprises a wide range of both brewer and K-Cup offerings, and total SKUs has been even further enhanced over the last 12 months with the introduction of previously unlicensed partner brands and K-Carafe and K-Mug packs for Keurig’s 2.0 system. Today, Keurig has more than 500 hot beverage varieties across 70 brands and has nearly 20 varieties of hot beverage machines. The hot beverage maker portfolio competes again machines such as Tassimo, Senseo, newly introduced “K-Cup compatible” systems such as iCoffee, and to a lesser extent Nespresso systems. On the portion pack front, key coffee competitors include McCafe (manufactured by Kraft), San Francisco Bay Coffee, and various branded and private label offerings manufactured by Mother Parker (private) and Treehouse (THS). Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 12 Figure 16: GMCR’s Major Retail Hot Platform Offerings (Keurig.com pricing) Keurig 1.0 MINI Keurig 1.0 K45 Keurig 2.0 K250 Keurig 2.0 K350 Keurig 2.0 K450 Keurig 2.0 K550 $99.99 $119.99 $119.99 $149.99 $169.99 $199.99 Pricing “Premium” – Starbucks, Peet’s, etc. “Middle-tier” – Tully’s, Green Mountain Coffee, Caribou, Donut House, etc. Value-Level – Kirkland’s (Costco private label) Sizing K-Cups – Standard single-serve pack, available for all brewers $0.40-1.10 per serving K-Carafes – newly introduced 2.0 system, brew 3-4 cups $0.40-0.60 per serving K-Mugs – introduced with 2.0 system, brews 12-16oz travel size $0.80-1.20 per serving Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 13 GMCR operates its Keurig business under a razor/razor-blade model, with Keurig brewers generally sold approximately to cost but KCups sold at a 50%+ gross margin. Typically, company K-Cups are sold at a sharp premium (4-6x) to traditional ground bagged coffee used in drip brewers. COGS for GMCR on the K-Cup front are composed of coffee (~one-third+ as a % of COGS), packaging (~22%), labor/overhead (sub-20%), distribution/logistics (sub-20%), and other costs (~sub-5%). GMCR employs a hedging strategy when possible for coffee (which it sources from various key global regions including Africa, South America, etc.) and is almost locked in fully for FY15. On the brewer front, we believe over the last couple years, Keurig made a modest profit off 1.0 brewers, but recently released Keurig 2.0 brewers likely reverted the company towards break-even levels. Figure 17: Keurig Estimated Gross Margin by Product, FY15/16E 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Management Keurig is led by Coca-Cola veteran Brian Kelley and recently announced its upcoming CFO. President and CEO of Keurig is Brian Kelley, a role he assumed in December 2012. Mr. Kelley previously served at Coca-Cola from 2007-2012, most recently as President of Coca-Cola Refreshments, and as President and Chief Executive at SIRVA (North America Van Lines) and additional senior leadership roles at Ford Motor Company and GE. Fran Rathke is current CFO at GMCR, a role she’s held since 2003, but intends to step down from her role shortly and aid in a transition phase through September. Ms. Rathke will be replaced by Peter Leemputte, who will fully take over in August. Mr. Leemputte served most recently as CFO of Mead Johnson Nutrition (MJN, Not Rated) from 2008-2015, CFO of Brunswick (BC, Outperform) from 2003-2008 and numerous prior leadership roles at Chicago Title & Trust, FMC (FMC, Not Rated), and Amoco. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 14 Industry Background Hot Coffee Beverages Keurig successfully fended off single-serve brewer competitors such as Tassimo and Senseo over the last ten years, earning a 90%+ share of the single-serve coffee industry. Following certain patent expirations, Keurig has seen a small portion of incremental launches of third-party single-serve compatible products reach the marketplace, but with far less spending resources versus GMCR. In overall coffee, we estimate industry revenues stand at ~$50B domestically based on Packaged Facts and National Coffee Association data, comprising traditional bagged and single-serve coffee in “At Home” and “Away from Home” channels. In contrast to soda, we estimate coffee consumption has actually grown domestically at an average low-single-digit y/y rate over the last five years. As consumers have migrated towards single-serve platforms from drip, industry estimates from Packaged Facts estimate that single-serve coffee now represents over 40%+ of the overall $10B+ At Home coffee industry. Figure 18: Estimated Market Size of Coffee Domestically (in billions, left), Estimated Current Keurig Compatible Market Share $60 Other GMCR Licensed, 22% $50 $40 Unlicensed Portion Packs, 8% Starbucks, 15% Away from Home (QSR, Food Service, etc.) $30 $20 $10 SJM Brands (Folgers, Maxwell House, etc.), 16% At Home - K-Cup Systems At Home Other $0 2014E GMCR Brands, 40% Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Figure 19: Key Single-Serve Versus Bagged Differences – Market Share (left), Price per Serving (right) 100% $0.90 90% $0.80 80% $0.70 70% $0.60 60% $0.50 50% $0.40 40% 30% $0.30 64% $0.20 20% $0.10 28% 10% $- 0% Roast & Ground Coffee Top 5 Brands Other Branded Keurig System Private Label Bagged Coffee Dunkin' Bagged Single-serve - Single-serve - Single-serve Coffee Private Label GMC French Starbucks Avg Private Label Avg Vanilla Avg Source: Company reports, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 15 Cold Carbonated Beverages With Keurig Kold, GMCR will be entering a $40B+ domestic carbonated beverage market. Carbonated beverages are an approximate $40B+ market domestically, according to Beverage Digest, and for overall total cold beverage sales (ex-dairy), GMCR estimates the market to be $50B+. GMCR’s competitor SodaStream (Not Rated) estimates the global market size of cold carbonated beverages at $260B. However, unlike at-home domestic coffee consumption (shown above), the vast majority of soda is consumed via ready-to-drink methods (PET, 2-liter, can, etc.), with SodaStream representing the largest portion of at-home carbonating methods but with a sub-$100M in sales (<1% of market dollars). Despite partnerships with DPS and Coca-Cola to date, GMCR will still compete for dollars in a highly competitive brand dominant category. GMCR has indicated it estimates roughly 3.45 carbonated beverages are consumed at home per day or roughly 2x that of coffee, with Coca-Cola company brands maintaining a relatively-dominant 40%+ share. Figure 20: Domestic Soda Market Dollar Consumption (in billions, left), U.S. Soft Drink Market Share (right) $60 Dr. Pepper Snapple, 17% $50 Private Label, 5% Other RTD Tea/Coffee Shelf-Stable Juice $40 Other, 12% Bottled Water $30 Sports & Energy Drinks $20 Rfg Bev $10 Carbonated Beverages Pepsi, 29% Coca-Cola, 37% $0 2014E Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Globally, Keurig Kold could compete in a far larger market, with global carbonated beverages representing $260B+ in at-home soda sales, according to SodaStream. Similar to Keurig hot, over time, GMCR may decide to participate in international markets, particularly those with higher-than-average soda consumption. Major soda consumption countries outside of the U.S. and Canada include Mexico, Germany, Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom, as shown below. Figure 21: Estimated Soda Consumption by Country, Liters per Capita 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 16 Figure 22: GMCR Financial Summary ($’s, in mm, ex-per share) 100 September year-end 2012 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15E 4Q15E 2015E 1Q16E 2Q16E 3Q16E 4Q16E 2016E 2017E Consolidated Revenues 3859.2 1339.1 1004.8 967.1 1047.2 4358.1 1386.7 1103.1 1022.4 1195.6 4707.8 1386.4 1127.2 1044.4 1308.5 4866.4 1544.4 1250.2 1171.8 1308.3 5274.8 5863.1 Cost of Goods Sold 45.5% 15.6% 13.5% 11.3% 10.6% 12.9% 3.6% 9.8% 5.7% 14.2% 8.0% 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% 9.4% 3.4% 11.4% 10.9% 12.2% 0.0% 8.4% 11.2% 2402.1 863.0 532.7 496.7 609.9 2502.4 862.1 580.0 512.1 680.0 2634.3 859.7 604.0 570.9 779.4 2813.9 995.9 685.1 631.7 791.7 3104.4 3492.3 Gross Profit 1457.1 476.0 472.1 470.3 437.3 1855.7 524.6 523.0 510.3 515.6 2073.5 526.7 523.1 473.5 529.1 2052.5 548.5 565.1 540.1 516.6 2170.4 2370.8 -- Gross Margin 37.8% 35.5% 47.0% 48.6% 41.8% 42.6% 37.8% 47.4% 49.9% 43.1% 44.0% 38.0% 46.4% 45.3% 40.4% 42.2% 35.5% 45.2% 46.1% 39.5% 41.1% 40.4% Depreciation and Amortization 187.7 56.9 56.9 62.7 59.8 236.3 60.6 65.6 65.7 65.8 257.6 62.6 64.3 64.8 74.6 266.2 61.8 70.0 71.5 77.2 280.5 296.4 Selling & Operating Expenses 469.9 171.8 124.8 136.7 127.1 560.4 168.2 125.0 127.9 140.5 561.6 176.5 136.3 141.0 145.2 599.1 202.3 152.5 153.5 146.5 654.9 713.1 General & Admin Expenses 179.7 56.8 67.9 65.2 59.8 249.6 61.3 60.6 73.5 72.8 268.2 57.9 64.5 67.9 69.4 259.6 63.3 51.3 64.5 60.2 239.2 263.7 Operating Profit 619.7 190.5 222.5 205.7 190.6 809.3 234.5 271.8 243.2 236.5 986.1 229.8 258.0 199.8 239.9 927.6 221.1 291.3 250.7 232.7 995.8 1097.6 -- Operating Margin 16.1% 14.2% 22.1% 21.3% 18.2% 18.6% 16.9% 24.6% 23.8% 19.8% 20.9% 16.6% 22.9% 19.1% 18.3% 19.1% 14.3% 23.3% 21.4% 17.8% 18.9% 18.7% Interest Income (Expense) (23.0) (5.7) (3.8) (3.9) (4.7) (18.2) (2.6) (3.0) (2.4) (3.6) (11.7) (1.1) (0.3) (2.5) (2.3) (6.2) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (1.5) (6.0) (4.0) 2.4 0.2 (2.4) (5.7) 3.4 (4.6) (5.6) (4.6) 6.3 (7.3) (11.2) (5.5) (5.1) (7.0) (1.0) (18.6) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (2.0) (8.0) (5.5) Pre-Tax Income 599.2 185.0 216.3 196.0 189.3 786.5 226.3 264.3 247.1 225.6 963.2 223.1 252.7 190.3 236.6 902.8 217.6 287.8 247.2 229.2 981.8 1088.1 Taxes Paid 217.9 68.4 74.6 70.6 53.0 266.6 80.3 94.6 83.5 77.8 336.3 78.8 86.7 61.7 78.1 305.2 76.2 100.7 86.0 79.8 342.7 380.8 -- Tax Rate 36% 37% 35% 36% 28% 34% 36% 36% 34% 35% 35% 35% 34% 32% 33% 34% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% 35% Noncontrolling Interest (0.6) (0.4) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.9) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.9) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) (0.8) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (0.3) (1.2) (1.6) 380.6 116.2 141.5 125.3 136.1 519.0 145.7 169.4 163.3 147.6 626.1 144.3 165.9 128.4 158.3 596.8 141.2 186.8 160.9 149.1 637.9 705.7 12.0% Other Income (Expense) Continued Net Income -- Income Margin 9.9% 8.7% 14.1% 13.0% 13.0% 11.9% 10.5% 15.4% 16.0% 12.3% 13.3% 10.4% 14.7% 12.3% 12.1% 12.3% 9.1% 14.9% 13.7% 11.4% 12.1% Non-Recurring Events (18.0) (8.2) (9.1) (9.0) (9.2) (35.5) (7.5) (7.3) (8.2) (6.5) (29.5) (9.6) (10.4) 0.0 0.0 (20.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Reported Net Income 362.6 107.9 132.4 116.3 126.9 483.6 138.2 162.1 155.2 141.1 596.5 134.7 155.5 128.4 158.3 576.8 141.2 186.8 160.9 149.1 637.9 705.7 Basic Share Counted 155 149 149 150 151 150 149 154 163 163 157 162 159 157 156 159 155 153 152 151 153 149 Diluted Shares 159 153 152 153 153 153 152 157 165 164 160 164 161 160 159 161 157 156 155 153 155 152 Common Earnings Per Share $2.46 $0.78 $0.95 $0.84 $0.90 $3.47 $0.98 $1.10 $1.00 $0.91 $3.99 $0.89 $1.04 $0.82 $1.01 $3.76 $0.91 $1.22 $1.06 $0.99 $4.18 $4.73 Diluted E.P.S. (Cont.) $2.39 $0.76 $0.93 $0.82 $0.89 $3.40 $0.96 $1.08 $0.99 $0.90 $3.93 $0.88 $1.03 $0.80 $1.00 $3.71 $0.90 $1.20 $1.04 $0.97 $4.12 $4.65 47% 28% 45% 57% 39% 42% 26% 16% 21% 1% 16% -9% -4% -19% 11% -5% 2% 16% 29% -2% 11% 13% $2.28 $0.71 $0.87 $0.76 $0.83 $3.16 $0.91 $1.03 $0.94 $0.86 $3.74 $0.82 $0.97 $0.80 $1.00 $3.59 $0.90 $1.20 $1.04 $0.97 $4.12 $4.65 1394.0 Reported Diluted E.P.S. EBITDA EBITDA Per Share Common Dividend Dividend Per Share 807.4 247.4 279.4 268.4 250.4 1045.6 295.1 337.4 308.9 302.4 1243.7 292.3 322.3 264.6 314.5 1193.8 282.9 361.3 322.1 309.9 1276.3 $5.08 $1.62 $1.83 $1.76 $1.63 $6.84 $1.95 $2.14 $1.88 $1.84 $7.80 $1.78 $2.01 $1.66 $1.98 $7.43 $1.80 $2.32 $2.09 $2.03 $8.24 $9.19 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.9 39.4 41.2 41.1 159.5 47.2 46.2 45.9 45.6 184.9 47.1 46.7 46.4 45.9 186.0 200.1 $1.32 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $0.25 $1.00 $0.29 $0.29 $0.29 $0.29 $1.15 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $0.30 $1.20 D&A Expenses (% of sales) 4.9% 4.2% 5.7% 6.5% 5.7% 5.4% 4.4% 5.9% 6.4% 5.5% 5.5% 4.5% 5.7% 6.2% 5.7% 5.5% 4.0% 5.6% 6.1% 5.9% 5.3% 5.1% S&O Expenses (% of sales) 12.2% 12.8% 12.4% 14.1% 12.1% 12.9% 12.1% 11.3% 12.5% 11.8% 11.9% 12.7% 12.1% 13.5% 11.1% 12.3% 13.1% 12.2% 13.1% 11.2% 12.4% 12.2% G&A Expenses (% of sales) 4.7% 4.2% 6.8% 6.7% 5.7% 5.7% 4.4% 5.5% 7.2% 6.1% 5.7% 4.2% 4.2% 6.5% 5.3% 5.3% 4.1% 4.1% 5.5% 4.6% 4.5% 4.5% Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 23.2% 25.2% 27.9% 25.5% 32.7% 27.8% 35.7% 28.8% 31.0% 33.4% 25.0% 28.8% 30.8% 29.2% 28.4% Free Cash Flow Net Income 362.6 107.9 132.4 116.3 126.9 483.6 138.2 162.1 155.2 141.1 596.5 134.7 155.5 128.4 158.3 576.8 141.2 186.8 160.9 149.1 637.9 705.7 Depreciation and Amortization 187.7 56.9 56.9 62.7 59.8 236.3 60.6 65.6 65.7 65.8 257.6 62.6 64.3 64.8 74.6 266.2 61.8 70.0 71.5 77.2 280.5 296.4 Managed Working Capital (212.5) Other 117.9 53.7 10.3 (147.9) 34.0 34.9 80.7 (38.5) (384.7) (307.5) (22.2) (52.6) (10.5) (304.7) (390.0) 226.0 (33.2) (13.3) (364.2) (184.6) (65.7) 139.9 (148.0) 227.0 (21.8) 24.9 82.1 39.0 12.5 47.8 73.5 172.8 (32.7) 58.3 25.0 25.0 75.6 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 120.0 120.0 Cash From Operations 478 135 470 168 64 836 273 321 230 (104) 719 142 226 208 (47) 529 459 254 249 (108) 854 1056 Capital Expenditures (401) (102) (47) (42) (42) (233) (61) (58) (103) (116) (338) (100) (135) (94) (118) (447) (108) (88) (82) (92) (369) (410) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 (39) (38) (41) (118) (41) (47) (46) (46) (179) (47) (47) (46) (46) (186) (200) 77 $0.48 33 $0.22 423 $2.78 126 $0.82 21 $0.14 603 $3.95 212 $1.40 223 $1.42 89 $0.54 (261) ($1.59) 263 $1.65 2 $0.01 44 $0.28 68 $0.42 (210) ($1.33) (97) ($0.60) 304 $1.93 119 $0.77 121 $0.78 (245) ($1.60) 299 $1.93 446 $2.94 FCF Yield 0.5% 0.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.1% 3.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% -1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.3% 0.4% -1.3% -0.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.8% -1.6% 1.9% 2.9% Share Repurchases (76) (99) (27) 0 (63) (188) (122) (758) (117) (55) (1052) (81) (837) (50) (50) (1018) (50) (50) (50) (50) (200) (200) 0 (66) 396 126 (41) 415 89 (535) (28) (316) (789) (79) (793) 18 (260) (1115) 254 69 71 (295) 99 246 Dividends Total FCF FCF Per Share FCF After Repurchases Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 17 Figure 23: GMCR Balance Sheet ($, in mm, ex-per share) September year-end 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Current Assets Cash & Equivalents Accounts Receivable Inventories Other Current Assets Total Current Assets PP&E Intangibles Keurig Investment Other Assets Total Assets $242 92 137 67 538 136 36 0 104 814 $4 172 262 56 495 259 220 0 396 1,371 $13 310 672 136 1,132 579 529 0 958 3,198 $58 364 768 132 1,323 944 498 0 850 3,616 $260 468 676 117 1,521 986 435 0 819 3,762 $761 621 835 228 2,446 1,171 365 0 815 4,797 $225 545 907 325 2,002 1,360 340 0 1,100 4,801 $200 588 949 325 2,062 1,405 330 0 1,000 4,797 $233 568 833 325 1,959 1,377 330 0 1,044 4,710 Current Liabilities Accounts Payable Accrued Liabilities Short-Term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities LT Debt Deferred Taxes Other Liabilities Total Liabilities 77 36 5 6 124 73 27 0 224 139 74 20 5 238 336 93 5 671 266 135 7 64 471 471 0 343 1,286 280 171 10 59 520 467 270 97 1,355 312 242 15 28 597 160 253 116 1,126 411 306 21 105 843 141 203 152 1,339 449 335 10 33 827 125 175 175 1,301 380 300 10 48 738 105 175 254 1,272 340 300 10 48 698 113 175 212 1,197 Shareholders Equity Common Stock Additional Paid-in Capital Retained Earnings Treasury Stock Other Total Equity 4 451 137 0 (2) 590 13 474 214 0 (2) 699 15 1,500 412 0 (15) 1,912 15 1,465 771 0 10 2,261 15 1,387 1,252 0 (19) 2,636 16 1,809 1,688 0 (54) 3,459 15 2,100 1,600 0 (215) 3,500 15 2,300 1,750 0 (540) 3,525 15 2,500 1,450 0 (453) 3,513 Total Liabilities and Equity 814 1,371 3,198 3,616 3,762 4,797 4,801 4,797 4,710 LT Debt to Capitalization 11.0% 32.4% 19.8% 17.1% 5.7% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9% 3.1% Book Value Per Diluted Share Year-End Market Price Price to Book Market Capitalization Enterprise Value $4.91 $24 4.8 2,851 2,682 $5.07 $31 6.1 4,300 4,631 $12.60 $93 7.4 14,107 14,565 $14.22 $24 1.7 3,775 4,184 $17.25 $75 4.3 11,441 11,341 $21.68 $130 6.0 20,762 20,141 $21.77 $100 4.6 16,074 15,974 $22.74 $100 4.4 15,500 15,405 $23.17 $100 4.3 15,163 15,043 Days Inventory Days Receiveable Days Payable 65 35 42 69 38 44 145 40 57 123 35 45 101 41 47 112 47 55 107 38 53 110 41 44 98 39 40 Return on Equity Return on Capital Return on Assets Working Capital 9% 8% 7% 414 11% 8% 6% 257 8% 7% 5% 660 16% 13% 10% 803 18% 17% 13% 924 17% 16% 12% 1,603 16% 16% 12% 1,175 18% 18% 13% 1,324 20% 19% 15% 1,261 Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 18 Figure 24: GMCR Cash Flow ($, mm, ex-per share) September year-end 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E $22 18 1 0 (54) 15 2 $54 23 2 0 (61) 20 38 $80 44 (7) 0 (186) 59 (11) $201 82 (9) 0 (427) 154 1 $364 188 61 0 (212) 78 478 $483 236 (18) 0 34 100 836 $597 258 (53) 0 (308) 225 719 $577 266 25 0 (186) 91 773 $639 280 25 0 (155) 95 885 $706 296 25 0 (127) 95 995 (49) 0 0 0 (48) (48) 0 (41) (50) (139) (118) 1 (459) 52 (525) (283) 1 (908) 3 (1,188) (401) 138 0 (2) (266) (233) 0 0 7 (226) (338) 1 0 (135) (472) (447) 0 (220) 0 (667) (369) 0 0 0 (369) (410) 0 0 0 (410) (0) 34 0 6 0 5 44 (51) (96) 0 395 0 93 342 132 145 0 9 0 13 298 (111) 334 0 981 0 (5) 1,200 (8) (109) (76) 12 0 8 (173) (72) (226) (188) 30 0 45 (411) (19) 0 (1,052) 1,389 (118) 54 253 (17) 300 (1,018) 15 (179) 65 (834) (19) 0 (200) 15 (186) 75 (315) 0 0 (200) 15 (200) 85 (300) 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 1 1 1 Net Change In Cash -- Per Share (2) ($0.02) 241 $2.01 (237) ($1.72) 13 $0.09 40 $0.25 202 $1.32 501 $3.14 (727) ($4.52) 202 $1.30 286 $1.88 Beginning Year Balance End Year Cash Balance -- Per Share 3 1 $0.01 1 242 $2.01 242 4 $0.03 4 17 $0.11 17 57 $0.36 58 260 $1.70 260 761 $4.77 761 34 $0.21 34 236 $1.52 236 521 $3.44 2 (49) 0 (47) (0.41) 38 (48) 0 (10) (0.08) (11) (118) 0 (129) (0.93) 1 (283) 0 (283) (1.86) 478 (401) 0 77 0.48 836 (233) 0 603 3.95 719 (338) (118) 263 1.65 773 (447) (179) 147 0.92 885 (369) (186) 329 2.12 995 (410) (200) 385 2.54 Operating Activities Net Income Depreciation and Amortization Deferred Taxes Equity in Keurig Net Working Capital Other Cash From Operating Activities Investing Activities Capital Expenditures Sale of Assets Acquisitions Other Cash From Investments Financing Activities LT Debt Repayment Revolving Credit Stock Repurchase Stock Issuance Dividends Other Cash From Financing Activities Exchange Rates Free Cash Flow Cash From Operations Capital Expenditures Dividends Total FCF FCF Per Share Source: Company data, Wedbush Securities, Inc. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 19 Analyst Biography Mr. Terpolilli is an Equity Analyst covering health-focused food and food retail stocks. Prior to Wedbush Phil spent seven years at Longbow Research, covering the traditional food & beverage universe as an Associate Analyst and subsequently the healthy living food universe as a Senior Analyst. He has a B.S. in Management from John Carroll University and is a 2015 Level III CFA Candidate. Edge: A diversified coverage universe of food manufacturers, distributors, and retailer's helps give Mr. Terpolilli a more complete understanding of important trends in the healthy living industry. He adds value through in-depth original fundamental analysis driven by various channel checks and survey work. Covered Companies Mentioned in This Report Company Brunswick Starbucks Ticker BC SBUX Rating OUTPERFORM OUTPERFORM Price Target $63 $56 Price $51.26 $51.77 Analyst Certification I, Phil Terpolilli, certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal opinion and that I have not and will not, directly or indirectly, receive compensation or other payments in connection with my specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Disclosure information regarding historical ratings and price targets is available at http://www.wedbush.com/ResearchDisclosure/DisclosureQ115.pdf Investment Rating System: Outperform: Expect the total return of the stock to outperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Neutral: Expect the total return of the stock to perform in-line with the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. Underperform: Expect the total return of the stock to underperform relative to the median total return of the analyst’s (or the analyst’s team) coverage universe over the next 6-12 months. The Investment Ratings are based on the expected performance of a stock (based on anticipated total return to price target) relative to the other stocks in the analyst’s coverage universe (or the analyst’s team coverage).* Rating Distribution (as of March 31, 2015) Outperform:55% Neutral: 43% Underperform: 2% Investment Banking Relationships (as of March 31, 2015) Outperform:31% Neutral: 3% Underperform: 0% The Distribution of Ratings is required by FINRA rules; however, WS’ stock ratings of Outperform, Neutral, and Underperform most closely conform to Buy, Hold, and Sell, respectively. Please note, however, the definitions are not the same as WS’ stock ratings are on a relative basis. The analysts responsible for preparing research reports do not receive compensation based on specific investment banking activity. The analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors including WS’ total revenues, a portion of which are generated by WS’ investment banking activities. Wedbush Equity Research Disclosures as of May 28, 2015 Company Disclosure Keurig Green Mountain 1 Research Disclosure Legend 1. WS makes a market in the securities of the subject company. 2. WS managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 3. WS co-managed a public offering of securities within the last 12 months. 4. WS has received compensation for investment banking services within the last 12 months. 5. WS provided investment banking services within the last 12 months. 6. WS is acting as financial advisor. 7. WS expects to receive compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months. 8. WS provided non-investment banking securities-related services within the past 12 months. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 20 9. 10. 11. 12. WS has received compensation for products and services other than investment banking services within the past 12 months. The research analyst, a member of the research analyst’s household, any associate of the research analyst, or any individual directly involved in the preparation of this report has a long position in the common stocks. WS or one of its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of the common equity securities. The analyst maintains Contingent Value Rights that enables him/her to receive payments of cash upon the company’s meeting certain clinical and regulatory milestones. Price Charts Wedbush disclosure price charts are updated within the first fifteen days of each new calendar quarter per FINRA regulations. Price charts for companies initiated upon in the current quarter, and rating and target price changes occurring in the current quarter, will not be displayed until the following quarter. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request. * WS changed its rating system from (Strong Buy/Buy/Hold/Sell) to (Outperform/ Neutral/Underperform) on July 14, 2009. Please access the attached hyperlink for WS’ Coverage Universe: http://www.wedbush.com/services/cmg/equities-division/research/equityresearch Applicable disclosure information is also available upon request by contacting Ellen Kang in the Research Department at (213) 6884529, by email to [email protected], or the Business Conduct Department at (213) 688-8090. You may also submit a written request to the following: Business Conduct Department, 1000 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90017. OTHER DISCLOSURES RESEARCH DEPT. * (213) 688-4505 * www.wedbush.com EQUITY TRADING Los Angeles (213) 688-4470 / (800) 421-0178 * EQUITY SALES Los Angeles (800) 444-8076 CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS (213) 688-8000 The information herein is based on sources that we consider reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The information contained herein is not a representation by this corporation, nor is any recommendation made herein based on any privileged information. This information is not intended to be nor should it be relied upon as a complete record or analysis; neither is it an offer nor a solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security mentioned herein. This firm, Wedbush Securities, its officers, employees, and members of their families, or any one or more of them, and its discretionary and advisory accounts, may have a position in any security discussed herein or in related securities and may make, from time to time, purchases or sales thereof in the open market or otherwise. The information and expressions of opinion contained herein are subject to change without further notice. The herein mentioned securities may be sold to or bought from customers on a principal basis by this firm. Additional information with respect to the information contained herein may be obtained upon request. Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Keurig Green Mountain | 21 EQUITY RESEARCH DEPARTMENT (213) 688-4529 DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH Mark D. Benson (213) 688-4435 MANAGER, RESEARCH OPERATIONS Ellen Kang (213) 688-4529 RETAIL AND CONSUMER TECHNOLOGY, INTERNET, MEDIA & SOCIAL MEDIA HEALTHCARE Communications & Cloud Infrastructure Scott Thompson (212) 938-9933 Gregory Nep, CFA (212) 938-9942 Biotechnology/Biopharmaceuticals David M. Nierengarten, Ph.D. (415) 274-6862 Dilip Joseph (415) 273-7308 Robert Driscoll, Ph.D. (415) 274-6863 Healthy Lifestyles Phil Terpolilli (212) 833-1367 Leisure James Hardiman, CFA CPA Sean Wagner (212) 833-1362 (212) 833-1363 Enterprise Software Steve Koenig Jae Cho (415) 274-6801 (212) 938-9937 Restaurants Nick Setyan Colin Radke (213) 688-4519 (213) 688-6624 Entertainment: Retail Michael Pachter Alicia Reese Nick McKay (213) 688-4474 (212) 938-9927 (213) 688-4343 Specialty Retail: Hardlines Seth Basham, CFA (212) 938-9954 John Garrett, CFA (213) 688-4523 Specialty Retail: Softlines Morry Brown, CFA Taryn Kuida Entertainment: Software Michael Pachter Nick McKay (213) 688-4311 (213) 688-4505 RETAIL CHANNEL CHECKING GROUP Lupine Skelly (505) 417-5427 INDUSTRIAL GROWTH TECHNOLOGY Environmental Services / Building Products Al Kaschalk (213) 688-4539 John Garrett, CFA (213) 688-4523 Water and Renewable Energy Solutions David Rose, CFA (213) 688-4319 James Kim (213) 688-4380 EQUITY SALES Los Angeles San Francisco New York Boston Minneapolis Chicago (415) 274-6874 (415) 273-7315 Emerging Pharmaceuticals Liana Moussatos, Ph.D. Kelechi Chikere, Ph.D. (415) 263-6626 (415) 273-7304 Healthcare Services - Managed Care Sarah James (213) 688-4503 (213) 688-4474 (213) 688-4343 Financial Technology Gil B. Luria Aaron Turner (213) 688-4501 (213) 688-4429 Internet: Media and Gaming Michael Pachter Nick McKay Alicia Reese (213) 688-4474 (213) 688-4343 (212) 938-9927 Media James Dix, CFA Aria Ertefaie (213) 688-4315 (212) 938-9958 Movies and Entertainment Michael Pachter Alicia Reese Nick McKay (213) 688-4474 (212) 938-9927 (213) 688-4343 Semiconductors Betsy Van Hees Ryan Jue, CFA (415) 274-6869 (415) 263-6669 (213) 688-4470 / (800) 444-8076 (415) 274-6800 (212) 938-9931 (617) 832-3700 (213) 688-6671 (213) 688-4418 Heather Behanna, Ph.D. Alison Macleod, Ph.D. EQUITY TRADING Los Angeles San Francisco New York Boston Milwaukee CORPORATE HEADQUARTERS 1000 Wilshire Blvd., Los Angeles, CA 90017-2465 Tel: (213) 688-8000 www.wedbush.com Medical Devices Tao Levy (212) 938-9948 Medical Diagnostics and Life Sciences Tools Zarak Khurshid (415) 274-6823 (213) 688-4470 / (800) 421-0178 (415) 274-6811 (212) 344-2382 (617) 832-3700 (213) 688-4475