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Solar Drivers of the Sun-Earth Connection and Real
LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Solar Drivers of the Sun-Earth Connection and Real-Time Space Weather Predictions LWS Science Workshop March 23-26, 2004 Dr. Murray Dryer [email protected] Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Project Goals • Forecast, days in advance, solar wind conditions that drive space weather variability at Earth (and Mars…). • Quantify our forecast skill in terms useful to the space weather forecast community. • Provide inputs to downstream (magnetospheric/ ionospheric/thermospheric) models. • Improve our physical understanding of SunEarth-Connections. Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Real-time Forecasting Team NOAA/SEC: M. Dryer , Z. Smith and T. R. Detman EXPI: C. D. Fry (LWS PI) UAF/GI: C. S. Deehr (UPOS PI) and W. Sun UAF/IARC: S.-I. Akasofu UAH/CSPAR: C.-C. Wu Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Technical Approach • Develop an observation-driven, physicsbased solar wind model. • Implement a flexible, modular forecast system extending from the Sun to the Earth and beyond. • Simulate realistic solar wind conditions over a range of solar activity levels and compare with observations. • Test the system in a real-time forecast environment using available observations. • Compute and publish forecast skill statistics. Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Hybrid Kinematic/3D-MHD Solar Wind Model 1.0 - 2.5 Rs Coronal Model (SSCS) Event Proxies 2.5 Rs 2.5 - 32 Rs 0.15 - 1.0 AU Empirical Translation (ET) Kinematic (HAFv3) 3D-MHD (IGMV) v, n, T, BIMF Near Earth Models 2.5 Rs Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Br (photosphere) Br and Vr @ 2.5 Rs Br Carrington maps Vr Potential field Exploration Physics International, Inc. 3D view LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 HAF Model Simulations of Carrington Rotations 2007 and 2008 Aug. 29 - Sep. 26, 2003 Sep. 26 - Oct. 24, 2003 Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 HAF: Characterizing Solar Events Required Input Observation Start time, eg., 20010825 1642 GOES X-ray event start time Location, eg., N20 W34 H-alpha optical report Initial shock speed, Vs Metric type II radio report or spectra Duration, τ GOES X-ray flux temporal profile Shock shape: Vσ = Vs exp[(GCD/σ)2] Speed at inner boundary: V(t) = Vσ (t/τ) exp(1-t/τ) Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 “Fearless Forecast” Study 1995 1997 1999 2001 Exploration Physics International, Inc. 2003 LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Oct.-Nov. 2003 Events FF# 0507 0508 0509 0510 0511 0513 0514 0515 0516 Date 2003 Oct. 19 Oct. 21 Oct. 22 Oct. 23 Oct. 25 Oct. 26 Oct. 28 Oct. 29 Nov. 1 Time UT 1650 0347 0938 0827 0552 1735 1102 2042 2234 Lat N05 S10 S02 S21 N00 N05 S16 S15 S12 Lon E56 E90 E22 E88 W15 W33 E08 W02 W60 Vs 625 1058 650 967 316 950 1875 818 1086 Tau OPT XRAY 0120 1N X1.1 0040 0300 M1.7 0130 X5.4 0200 SF M1.7 0330 X1.2 0300 X17.2 0130 2B X10.0 0100 1N M3.3 Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 HAF Simulation Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2003 Select the Hand Tool and click on the image to play movie Ecliptic Plane IMF Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 HAF Simulation Oct. 27-Nov. 1, 2003 Select the Hand Tool and click on the image to play movie Hammer-Aitoff Skymap Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Solar Wind Speed and Density at 0.15 AU (Input Boundary Conditions for IGMV) Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Space Weather at Mars McKenna-Lawlor et al., Prediction of Energetic Particle Radiation in the Close Martian environment, submitted, Annal. Geophys., 2004 • Simulated solar wind conditions at Mars during the March, 1989 solar events. • Compared simulations with energetic particle observations by Phobos-2 SLED and LET instruments. • Events at Sun, Earth and Mars were significantly correlated. Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Outstanding flares occurring during 6-27 March 1989. McKenna-Lawlor et al., 2004, Table 3. __________________________________________________________________ Flare Day/Time Classif. Vs* Tau SSC/SI Event Location Mar.89/UT X-ray/Opt. km/s Mins Mar.89/UT __________________________________________________________________ I N35 E69 6/1352 X15/3B 1200 120 9/1900 II N30 E40 9/1011 M7.6/2N 2000 10 10/1600 III N31 E22 10/1900 X4/3B 1120 180 13/0100 IV N33 W60 17/1744 X6/2B 2500 60 19/0200 V S25 E76 20/2045 M3.1/2 1500 180 23/1200 VI N18 W28 23/1939 X1.5/3B -------*These values were found by HAFv.2 iteration, using SSC or SI times since the metric Type II coronal shock speeds were not recorded in the NGDC archive during this period. Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 March, 1989 Solar Events IMP8 Observations And Dst index Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Solar wind conditions at Mars “predicted” by the HAF model Proton flux at Mars observed by Phobos-2 SLED instrument Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Fearless Forecast #530 January 20, 2004 ~0730 UT: M6.1/2N flare in AR0540 at S16W12 X-Ray GOES-12: X-ray enhancement at 0729-0743-0747 UT Optical San Vito: H-alpha increase at 0734-0744-0810 UT Learmonth: H-alpha at 0733-0746-0746 (typo, presumably, in Edited Events). NOAA/SEC: SOHO/LASCO data indicates a full halo CME. Metric Type II Radio Burst Culgoora: 0739 UT (180 MHz) to 0750 UT (25 MHz), Shock speed ~550 km/sec; Culgoora: 0748 UT (100 MHz) to 0757 UT, Speed ~850 km/sec; Learmonth: 0739 UT (180MHz) to 0756 UT (25 MHz), Speed ~952 km/sec; IZMIRAN: 0740 UT (190 MHz) to 0755 UT (25 MHz), No reported speed estimate; San Vito: 0740 UT (180 MHz) to 0753 UT (25 MHz). Speed ~620 km/sec. Fearless Forecaster (Dryer): Vs = 952 km/sec, Piston-driving time, tau = 1 hr. ACE/SWEPAM background solar wind speed, Vsw = 520 km/sec. Exploration Physics International, Inc. LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 HAF v.2 - Shock Transit Times 120 Transit time (hr) 100 80 500 km/s 60 1000 km/s 40 2000 km/s 20 0 0 10 30 60 Source Heliographic Longitute (deg) TAU 0.5 hrs 1.0 hrs 2.0 hrs Exploration Physics International, Inc. 90 LWS Science Workshop, Boulder, March 2004 Project Status • We routinely run the HAF model to forecast solar wind conditions and shock arrival time. • We are running the HAF and IGMV Models to generate performance statistics. • We have merged HAF and IGMV into the H3DM framework. Some debugging continues. • We plan to simulate the solar wind and IMF at L1 during various phases of the solar cycle. Exploration Physics International, Inc.
