Hoist the Sails

Research and
Forecast report
Second Half 2013
Australia
APARTMENT
Hoist the Sails
Brisbane and Gold Coast
apartment market plotting
a similar course.
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APARTMENT
Contents
Apartment market heading in the right direction
Our apartment market perspective
5
6-7
Apartment market snapshots
1. Brisbane
8 - 10
2. Gold Coast
11 - 13
Key indicators
14 - 15
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Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
3
Vida, West End
Developers Pointcorp have achieved a 74% sales rate since release in 2013.
4
A Colliers International publication
Metro Office
APARTMENT
Upward trend
established in
Brisbane and the
Gold Coast
Although Brisbane and Gold Coast are two very
different markets, they are both moving in the same
direction – and that is upwards. Sales rates are
improving and general sentiment is positive. The new
apartment market is definitely picking up the pace.
By Lynda Campbell
Manager | Research
[email protected]
Key factors all bode well for investors and owner-occupiers to make the
decision to purchase and take advantage of the current climate of affordable
loans that are available. Residential vacancy rates are tightening which puts
upward pressure on rental rates, interest rates are at their lowest level in
decades, dwelling approvals are rising and population growth is increasing. And,
latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show housing finance for
owner occupation and investment purposes are trending upwards.
While the Gold Coast is just lifting off the bottom of the property cycle, Brisbane
is well on its way with elevated sales rates throughout the year resulting in total
sales for the 12 months to the end of September reported to be 2,300. Total
sales on the Gold Coast for the same period are sitting at just over 700. Both
markets are tracking above five year average figures, with Brisbane significantly
above and Gold Coast just starting to gain traction.
New projects recently launched in Brisbane are achieving strong sales rates
while on the Gold Coast new projects are scarce. Going into 2014 this should
change for the Gold Coast with several projects expected to be launched late
2013 and early 2014.
Both Brisbane and the Gold Coast have a strong pipeline of future supply. With
sentiment improving and key indicators positive, developers will start to move
forward with projects that may have been on the back burner for several years.
At the same time, projects which have been on the market for a number of
years are starting to see an increase in sales rates and stock is being taken up
at a faster rate than has been experienced over the last few years.
Major infrastructure projects are underway in both Brisbane and the Gold
Coast which will have a positive impact on residential markets. On the Gold
Coast the $1.8 billion Light Rail project will create a corridor of Transit Oriented
Developments (TOD) through the suburbs of Southport, Surfers Paradise and
Broadbeach. In Brisbane, the newly proposed underground rail and bus network
($5 billion) will deliver a double-decked tunnel connecting Dutton Park in the
south and Victoria Park in the north. These projects will see connectivity around
both cities improve.
Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
5
NEW
APARTMENTS
MOOTED
WHERE
are these
new
apartments?
18,700
Brisbane
49%
27%
Surfers
Paradise
Inner North
32%
24%
Inner South
Brisbane
13,700
Gold Coast
Southport l
Labrador
Gold Coast
HIGHEST SALES VOLUME
78 Botanica, South Brisbane
Vida
72
55 Aquilo at Harbour Quay
Southport Central III
Soul
16
62 Central Village
15 Synergy
Brisbane
Gold Coast
BEST PERFORMING PRECINCT By Sales Volume
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Q1
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Q2
2013
North Shore
Gold Coast
Q3
2013
Inner South
Brisbane
2013
Inner North North Shore
Inner South North Shore
BEST PERFORMING PRECINCT By Gross Sales Value $
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Q1
2013
Inner South Broadbeach
Brisbane
Gold Coast
Q2
Gold Coast
Inner South
Surfers
Paradise
Q3
2013
Inner South
Brisbane
2013
Surfers
Paradise
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WHAT
47%
44%
are these Brisbane
1 bedroom
2 bedroom
new
59%
apartments?
39%
Gold Coast
WHEN
will we see these
new apartments?
2%
2014
3,000
2014
2,300
Brisbane
Gold Coast
High rise Medium rise Low rise
RESIDENTIAL VACANCY
RATES TIGHTENING
CRANE COUNT
Number of cranes in the skyline is a good indicator
of construction activity!
Q2 2011
Brisbane
Gold Coast
% change over 2 years
Brisbane
City
Brisbane
Surrounds
2.7%
2.1%
3.1%
2.4%
2.1%
0.7%
2.1%
Steady
Gold Coast
City
5.2%
2.7%
1.9%
1.2%
4.0%
2.6%
4
2.6%
ASIAN DOMINATING
Proportion of population born in Asia
2.3% Surfers Paradise
Brisbane Inner 20.6%
10.9%
3.3% Brisbane Inner-East
Southport
2.2% Broadbeach l Burleigh
7.6% Brisbane Inner-North
2% Coolangatta
6.1% Brisbane Inner-West
Brisbane
Q2 2013
Brisbane
SD
2.0%
19
Q2 2012
Gold Coast
RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY EXPOSURE
67%
Owner-occupied
33%
Investment
Based on residential term loans to households across Australia
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Research and
Forecast report
Second Half 2013
BRISBANE APARTMENT
Market responds to elevated demand
Sales activity in the Inner Brisbane apartment market maintained
investment opportunity as strong dwelling price growth in Sydney
momentum throughout the third quarter of 2013 (Q3 2013).
and Melbourne has eroded gross yields in those markets. Should
Unconditional sales reached their highest point in nine years with
the southern capitals, Sydney in particular, sustain current levels
645 sales recorded across 48 projects. However, this is expected
of price growth; investors will be further incentivised by the
to be revised upward upon analysis of settled sales in those
returns offered in the Inner Brisbane market.
projects where surveys were incomplete. Activity has remained
at an elevated level since the first quarter of the year with both a
significant number of project releases as well as uplift to sales. In
the 12 months to the end of September there were approximately
2,300 unconditional sales, well above the median long term
historical average. Although annual sales are still dominated by
the Inner North, the Inner South, and to a lesser extent the Inner
Looking ahead, there is in the order of 3,200 apartments that may
be released in the coming year. A review of projects released
in the preceding 12 months suggests take-up may be moderate
to firm, should demand fundamentals remain stable. Developers
have identified this underlying demand and subsequently, entered
a site acquisition cycle in the last six months.
West have reclaimed a significant proportion of demand in 2013
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate setting should
as a result of new project releases.
remain accommodative to household lending, as a result of the
Prices have remained largely unchanged over the last 12 months.
The September quarter recorded a weighted average sale price
of $532,900, falling 4% from Q2 2013 and down 1% from the
same period in 2012. Largely a factor of stock type sold, the
quarterly decline may be attributable to a higher proportion of one
bedroom apartments sold in the September quarter compared
moderated economic forecast for 2014/15 that in turn should
support apartment prices in Inner Brisbane. However, if growth in
Sydney continues at an unsustainable rate, the RBA may have to
adjust its settings accordingly, albeit for a short period.
ANNUAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW APARTMENTS IN
INNER BRISBANE
to June. On an annualised basis, the weighted average sale price
3,000
was $531,100, virtually unchanged from Q2 2013. The type of
2,500
the quarterly weighted average sale price may experience some
uplift in coming quarters.
Underlying fundamentals have been supportive of the Inner
Number of apartments
apartments remaining for sale across existing projects suggest
2,000
1,500
1,000
Brisbane apartment market. The most accommodative borrowing
500
environment in Australia’s history in concert with firm rents,
apartments made up 95% of all approvals in the year to Q3 2013
in Inner Brisbane. Investors have remained active participants in
the market as dwelling prices have remained stable while rents
have firmed leading to rising income returns. Yields for Brisbane
apartments are now well above the national average according
to RP Data-Rismark. Developers and marketing agents alike are
reporting interstate buyers have identified Brisbane as a desirable
8
A Colliers International publication
Source: Colliers International
Avg Annual Sales
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2012
Apartments available for sale
Q2 2012
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2010
Rolling Annual Sales
Q2 2010
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
range of demographics has led to increased demand. Notably,
0
Q4 2008
low vacancy and a preference for inner city living amongst a
Metro Office
APARTMENT
Precinct updates
CURRENT AND LIKELY FUTURE SUPPLY OF NEW
APARTMENTS IN INNER BRISBANE
3,000
CBD
2,500
In the three months to Q3 2013 there were reportedly 13
unconditional sales across three projects in the Brisbane CBD,
leading to a rolling annual total of 108, 17% below the five year
average rolling average. The lower than average sales figure is
due to the limited availability of stock in the city. In annualised
terms, the weighted average sale price was $529,000. Of the
remaining 124 apartments across three projects, 68% are two
beds, 27% one bed and 5% are three bed units.
In terms of future supply, developer Sunland Group will launch
their project, Abian to the market in Q1 2014. The project
encompasses the site on the corner of Alice and Albert streets
adjacent the Botanical Gardens with a mixture of two, three and
four bedroom apartments, as well as sub-penthouses, skyhomes,
and one penthouse. Already, Expressions Of Interest (EOI’s)
have indicated demand for the product type on offer is strong.
Billbergia’s 111+222 mixed-use development is currently awaiting
release with 856 apartments proposed. There are a further 756
apartments in the development pipeline however the release date
of these projects is uncertain.
Inner North
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
CBD
Inner North
Currently available
Inner South
Inner East
Inner West
Est. for release in next 12 Mths
Source: Colliers International
At quarters end there was approximately 522 apartments
remaining for sale across 18 projects. The composition of stock
reflects the market demand environment with a 47% stock
weighting towards two bedroom apartments followed 18% one
beds. Three bedroom or larger types account for the remaining
17%. Looking ahead, we could expect in the order of 860 new
apartments released for sale across the Inner South. If demand
remains robust, the market should be able to contend with the
challenge of absorbing new stock as it has done over the last year.
Inner West
The Inner North continued to experience above average demand
recording 226 unconditional sales, bringing the 12 month total
to 974, well above the five year rolling annual average for the
precinct. Demand was greatest for one bedroom stock (41%)
followed by studio’s (31%) and two bedrooms (28%). With a high
proportion of studio and one bedroom apartments, the annualised
weighted average price remains one of the lowest in Inner
Brisbane, rising 1% over the quarter to $515,000.
As a result of limited project releases, available stock declined
in the September quarter to approximately 850, the lowest
level since March 2010. A review of current development
applications, both approved and pending, suggest there are over
1,900 apartments across ten projects that may be released in the
coming 12 months. Approximately 85% of the potential supply is
one bedroom stock.
Inner South
Activity gained momentum across the Inner West precinct as
new projects lifted the volume of unconditional sales. During the
quarter there were 89 reported sales in Milton and Toowong,
composed of one and two bedroom apartments. Rolling annual
sales to September quarter 2013 were approximately 243, more
than double the five year average.
There was little change in the annualised weighted average sale
price, recorded at $559,800 in Q3 2013, 6% greater than the
Inner Brisbane average. A higher proportion of two bedroom
apartment sales priced between $550,000 and $650,000
resulted in an increase to the average sale price. With the release
of over 560 apartments in 2013, the future development pipeline
has somewhat diminished. At present, there are approximately
750 apartments in the pipeline. This is expected to expand with a
number of recent site acquisitions in Milton and Toowong.
Outlook/supply
The Inner South continued to attract the majority of purchaser
demand in Q3 2013 with 290 unconditional sales recorded.
New projects have been particularly popular with 72% of the
879 apartments released in 2013 already unconditional. In
the year to Q3 2013 there have been 885 unconditional sales
for an annualised weighted average sale price of $534,900.
Approximately half the sales in Q3 were for apartments priced
under $550,000. Two bedroom stock accounted for 57% of the
quarterly total followed by one bedroom stock (41%) with three
beds making up the remainder.
Analysis of the future supply pipeline suggests there are
approximately 3,200 apartments that may be released for sale in
the coming 12 months, 918 of which were in soft release during
Q3 2013. In addition to this immediate supply, there are a further
15,500 apartments in various stages of the planning process. It
should be noted that almost half of this supply is currently deferred
and a further 19% is yet to obtain development approval. After a
significant shift to the Inner South in 2013, development activity
is poised to return to the Inner North with 60% of the immediate
supply located here. The Inner South accounts for 22%, followed
by the Inner East (8%), Inner West (6%) and the CBD (4%).
Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
9
TOTAL
UNITS
SOLD TO
DATE
AVAILABLE
FOR SALE
SOLD SEPT
2013 QTR
% SOLD
Completed
Under Construction
Completed
464
546
144
1,154
284
213
85
582
3
79
42
124
0
7
6
13
99%
73%
67%
82%
Albion
Bowen Hills
Bowen Hills
Bowen Hills
Bowen Hills
Bowen Hills
Bowen Hills
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Fortitude Valley
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Hamilton
Kelvin Grove
Kelvin Grove
Kelvin Grove
Kelvin Grove
Newstead
Newstead
Newstead
New Farm
Teneriffe
Awaiting Construction
Completed
Completed
Completed
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Completed
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Completed
Awaiting Construction
Completed
Completed
Completed
Under Construction
Under Construction
Completed
Completed
Completed
Awaiting Construction
Completed
Completed
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
140
132
107
308
228
288
36
212
234
143
216
77
75
165
158
172
168
259
212
189
78
68
65
73
133
176
99
102
59
57
111
4,540
79
123
86
283
141
222
n.p.
189
186
40
186
36
74
147
93
150
33
259
210
154
78
56
54
72
90
n.p.
56
74
44
14
81
3,310
61
9
21
12
87
66
n.p.
23
48
26
20
30
1
2
23
22
135
0
2
35
0
12
11
1
43
n.p.
43
28
15
43
30
849
8
1
6
11
23
20
n.p.
20
4
n.p.
6
2
4
18
62
5
n.p.
1
1
4
12
4
0
0
6
n.p.
n.p.
4
n.p.
n.p.
4
226
56%
93%
80%
92%
62%
77%
n.p.
89%
79%
28%
86%
47%
99%
89%
59%
87%
20%
100%
99%
81%
100%
82%
83%
99%
68%
n.p.
57%
73%
75%
25%
73%
73%
Inner South
Dutton Place
Vertice
The Capitol Apartments
Fish Lane
Austin
Botanica
Plaza
Canvas Apartments
Arena
Edge Apartments
Southpoint
Riverpoint on Ferry
Waters Edge
Ecco on Victoria
Vida
Escent
Onyx
The Glass Factory
Eastwood
Radius Apartments
Total
Dutton Park
Dutton Park
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
South Brisbane
West End
West End
West End
West End
West End
West End
West End
Woolloongabba
Woolloongabba
Completed
Under Construction
Under Construction
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Completed
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
Awaiting Construction
100
65
77
48
138
180
168
141
191
48
130
50
234
104
144
56
30
47
82
91
2,124
79
62
74
47
130
78
141
98
188
40
100
21
136
n.p.
107
28
19
41
78
n.p.
1,467
21
3
3
1
8
102
27
43
3
8
30
29
98
n.p.
37
28
11
6
4
n.p.
462
2
29
n.p.
3
7
78
11
n.p.
9
10
n.p.
6
n.p.
n.p.
72
11
9
41
2
n.p.
290
79%
95%
96%
98%
94%
43%
84%
70%
98%
83%
77%
42%
58%
n.p.
74%
50%
63%
87%
95%
n.p.
69%
Inner East
Aqua'ta - Stages I and II
Parkside Bulimba
Yungaba - Promontory
Yungaba - The Linc
Mowbray East
Peninsula
Total
Bulimba
Bulimba
Kangaroo Point
Kangaroo Point
Kangaroo Point
Kangaroo Point
Stage 1 complete
Awaiting Construction
Completed
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
41
45
68
45
56
168
423
30
13
52
8
22
85
210
11
9
16
37
34
83
190
5
n.p.
0
n.p.
22
n.p.
27
73%
29%
76%
18%
39%
51%
50%
Milton
Milton
Milton
Milton
Toowong
Toowong
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Awaiting Construction
Under Construction
298
65
49
243
136
73
864
205
55
41
39
n.p.
52
392
93
10
8
132
n.p.
21
264
16
25
9
39
n.p.
n.p.
89
69%
85%
84%
16%
n.p.
71%
45%
SUBURB
STATUS
CBD
CBD
CBD
Inner North
The Mill
Code
Richmond
Madison Heights
Belise
Showground Hill
The Pavillion on Brookes
Mosaic
M&A
Alex Perry Residential
Brooklyn on Brookes
The Dunmore
Atrio Apartments
Central Village - Cambridge Tower
Central Village - Oxford Tower
Promenade Hamilton Apartments
Pinnacle Apartments
Hamilton Harbour - Harbour One
Hamilton Harbour - Harbour Two
Hamilton Harbour - Riverside Hamilton
Hamilton Reach - Watermarque
Hamilton Reach - Watermarque On The Park
Edenview Apartments
Urban Edge - Vista
Urban Edge - Horizons
Urban Edge - Skyview
Pier at Waterfront
Park at Waterfront
Kurv
Sydney on Sydney
Double One Three
Total
DEVELOPMENT
CBD
Soleil
Infinity
The Midtown
Total
Inner West
The Milton
Savoir Faire
Siena Milton
Westmark
38 High Street
Aspect on Benson
Total
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10
A Colliers International publication
For further information about our research
please contact: Alex Beer
Senior Analyst | Research | Tel +61 7 3026 3305
[email protected]
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APARTMENT
Research and
Forecast report
Second Half 2013
GOLD COAST APARTMENT
Sales rate cruising past last year
Overview
Medium rise
Sales volumes for the year to date have already exceeded figures
for the previous year, with one more quarter still to report. The
September quarter has recorded 184 sales taking total sales for
2013 to 552 which is slightly higher than the 546 reported for the
full four quarters of 2012. While a large proportion of sales can be
attributed to a small number of projects, the majority of projects
have seen upward movement in sales rates. Across the board, the
sales rate for the September quarter lifted to 6.3 per project, the
highest level seen since the beginning of 2008.
The medium rise sector out-shone high rise during the
September quarter, recording 92 sales across 10 projects. The
North Shore Precinct recorded 93% of all medium rise sales with
Aquilo reporting 55 followed by Salacia Waters (13) and Harmony
Broadwater (12). Based on the current selling rate, medium rise
stock could be exhausted in as little as four or five months. Only
138 medium rise apartments remain on the market, the majority
of which are held within the North Shore Precinct.
While sales are strengthening, stock levels continue to decline.
Based on the current quarterly sales rate of 184, stock could
be exhausted within 13 months, the fastest take-up rate in five
years. During the September quarter, three projects sold out
(Aquilo, Winged Keel and Drift Apartments Stage I) leaving
only 800 apartments on the market. This is the lowest number
of apartments on the market since December 2001. The five
year chart on page 13 illustrates the continual decline of stock
levels from a high of around 2,400 early 2009 to the current
level of 800. We are aware of several projects (Sapphire at the
Broadwater, Phoenix and Pure) which are on the market but sales
figures are unavailable at this stage. The addition of these projects
would have some upward impact on supply levels but they are
reportedly selling well so impact will be minimal.
High rise
Fourteen high rise projects across the Gold and Tweed Coasts
recorded 85 sales during the September quarter. Southport
Central III and Soul were the top performers with 16 sales each
followed by Synergy with 15 sales. The supply of high rise stock
continues to decline from the most recent peak of around 1,600
in mid-2009, to the current level of 650. The majority of high rise
sales occurred in Broadbeach, Surfers Paradise and Southport
and these suburbs also hold the largest supply of new high
rise apartment stock. Only two high rise sales occurred at the
southern end of the coast during the September quarter.
Low rise
The low rise sector has almost come to a stand-still across the
Gold Coast with only seven sales recorded during the September
quarter and only 11 apartments remaining on the market. There
is a definite under supply in this sector with limited supply in
the planning stages as most developers move from three levels
to four and five to maximise returns. Where possible, approvals
for low rise projects are being increased which will result in an
upward swing in the medium rise sector.
Outlook
The outlook for the Gold Coast is looking brighter than it has
for several years. Interest rates are at lowest levels in decades,
population growth is rising, dwelling approvals are increasing,
residential vacancy rate is decreasing and tourists are returning.
The State Government declared Southport a Priority Development
Area in October. This will take Southport to another level
and build on the current development activity. Several new
development applications have already been submitted to
council and more will follow. Leading up to the Commonwealth
Games, Southport will become a development hot spot, taking
the attention away from traditional apartment tower suburbs
of Surfers Paradise and Broadbeach to some extent. Surfers
Paradise and Broadbeach will continue to attract high rise
development, particularly along the Light Rail corridor.
Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
11
Precinct updates
Future supply
North Shore Precinct
Northern Gold Coast continues to hold largest
supply
The North Shore was the standout performer for the seventh
consecutive quarter with a total of 86 sales. Aquilo at Harbour
The majority of future apartment supply across the Gold Coast
Quays was launched to the market during the quarter and
is planned for suburbs between Broadbeach and Hope Island.
reported 55 sales which is a sell-out for the project and the
Almost 70% of new supply is located in this area, leaving other
highest sales rate for an individual project across the Gold Coast.
areas with minimal new apartments in the planning stages.
If the current sales rate continues, the North Shore Precinct could
Remaining supply is in centrally located suburbs of Ashmore,
be sold out within four months. This is unlikely to eventuate as
Burleigh Waters, Carrara, Robina and Varsity Lakes (22%) and
new supply will be taken to the market thereby increasing stock
the balance of 8% is in the southern suburbs from Palm Beach
levels.
through to Coolangatta and Tweed Heads.
Broadbeach Precinct
Potential supply identified is sitting at around 13,700 apartments
The Broadbeach Precinct recorded the second highest sales rate
during the September quarter with a total of 34. For the second
consecutive quarter, Synergy was the best performing project
with a total of 15 sales, followed by the two Oracle towers with
ten sales in Tower II and seven sales in Tower I. Provided no new
stock is added to the market and the current sales rate continues,
Broadbeach could be sold out within 18 months.
Surfers Paradise Precinct
which is an increase of around 28% on figures mooted during
the first quarter of 2013. Approximately 2,300 of this supply
could reach marketing stage within the next 12-18 months. The
balance is expected to be released progressively as the market
demands over the next five to ten years. The bulk of new supply
added has occurred in the Central Precinct with the addition of
just over 1,000 apartments in various stages of planning and
approval process. Around 60% of these apartments are in the
Ashmore area which has not seen significant levels of new
Surfers Paradise reported a total of 31 sales during the
apartment activity in many years. The North Shore area also saw
September quarter. The best performing project was Soul with
a significant number of new apartment projects added with the
16 sales followed by Hilton Orchid Tower with nine and Hilton
addition of just over 800 apartments.
Boulevard Tower recording six sales. Based on the current selling
Low rise stock at critically low levels
rate, remaining stock in Surfers Paradise could be exhausted
within 16 months. The Hilton and Soul towers have been the
Only 7% of mooted supply is in the low rise sector. Low rise
subject of much speculation and media comment since suffering
supply has increased slightly since the beginning of the year from
the effects of the Global Financial Crisis. The tide has turned
213 to 280 but levels are still extremely low both in current stock
and sales are being made in these iconic buildings. Both Hilton
being marketed and in supply in the planning stages. The majority
towers are over 90% sold with minimal stock remaining. The Soul
of planned apartment stock is in the high rise sector which is
building has recorded some of the highest price points across the
sitting at just over 8,000.
Gold Coast with sales during the September quarter averaging
$2.58 million. Prices ranged from just over $1 million up to $4.6
million.
Southport/Labrador Precinct
With the announcement of Southport becoming a Priority
Development Area the suburb is set to become a focus for new
development along with existing projects such as the Light Rail
($1.8 billion), the recent completion of the Gold Coast University
Hospital ($1.76 billion), and the on-going redevelopment of the
Broadwater Parklands and expansion at Griffith University.
The Southport/Labrador Precinct reported 26 sales during
the September quarter with Southport Central III recording the
highest sales rate of 16.
Aquilo, Harbour Quays, Biggera Waters
Best performing project across the Gold and Tweed Coasts for the September
quarter.
12
A Colliers International publication
Metro Office
APARTMENT
TOTAL
UNITS
SOLD TO
DATE
AVAILABLE
FOR SALE
SOLD SEPT
2013 QTR
% SOLD
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Planned
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
56
19
36
186
224
11
289
262
258
137
266
243
160
220
2,367
34
13
35
167
205
10
158
254
217
47
222
194
126
34
1,716
22
6
1
19
19
1
131
8
41
90
44
49
34
186
651
2
0
1
6
9
1
16
0
16
15
7
10
0
2
85
61%
68%
97%
90%
92%
91%
55%
97%
84%
34%
83%
80%
79%
15%
72%
Palm Beach
Biggera Waters
Paradise Point
Palm Beach
Runaway Bay
Paradise Point
Merrimac
Southport
Robina
Broadbeach
Completed
Under Construction
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
8
55
62
6
119
131
69
42
47
7
546
4
55
59
5
101
42
60
32
47
3
408
4
0
3
1
18
89
9
10
0
4
138
0
55
6
1
12
13
2
2
1
0
92
50%
100%
95%
83%
85%
32%
87%
76%
100%
43%
75%
Hope Island
Casuarina
Casuarina
Southport
Southport
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
Completed
159
45
45
17
15
281
155
45
42
15
13
270
4
0
3
2
2
11
0
1
0
6
0
7
97%
100%
93%
88%
87%
96%
3,194
2,394
800
184
75%
DEVELOPMENT
SUBURB
STATUS
High Rise (projects 9 storeys and over in height)
Eclipse
Eden
Element
Hilton Boulevard Tower
Hilton Orchid Tower
Maili
Soul
Southport Central - II
Southport Central - III
Synergy
The Oracle - Tower I
The Oracle - Tower II
Tweed Ultima - North & South Towers
Victoria Towers
Total High Rise Sector - 14 projects
Broadbeach
Coolangatta
Burleigh Heads
Surfers Paradise
Surfers Paradise
Coolangatta
Surfers Paradise
Southport
Southport
Broadbeach
Broadbeach
Broadbeach
Tweed Heads
Southport
Medium Rise (projects 4 to 8 storeys in height)
160 Jefferson
Aquilo
Ephraim Island Stage IV
Frangipani on Palm Beach
Harmony Broadwater
Salacia Waters Stage I
Signature Waterfront Apartments
Sphere Stage 5
Winged Keel
Wings on Surf
Total Medium Rise Sector - 10 projects
Low Rise (projects up to 3 storeys in height)
Azzura Greens
Drift Apartments Stage I
Drift Apartments Stage II
Espresso on Southport
Sykes Apartments
Total Low Rise Sector - 5 projects
Total projects - 29
ANNUAL DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF NEW APARTMENTS,
GOLD COAST
SUPPLY PIPELINE BY PRECINCT
3,500
Number of proposed apartments
2,600
2,400
2,200
Number of apartments
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
400
200
0
Q3 2013
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2012
Apartments available for sale
Q2 2012
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2010
Rolling Annual Sales
Q2 2010
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q4 2008
0
North
Shore
Southport
/Labrador
Surfers
Paradise
Broadbeach
Central
Southern
Beachside
Northern
NSW
Source: Colliers International
Avg Annual Sales
Source: Colliers International
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For further information about our research
please contact: Lynda Campbell
Manager | Research | Tel +61 7 5588 0290
[email protected]
Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
13
Key indicators
Interest rates
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA OFFICIAL CASH RATE
8%
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has judged the current
7%
setting of monetary policy remained appropriate. The Board
Cash Rate
6%
left the Official Cash Rate unchanged in its November meeting
3%
Nov-13
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-03
Nov-04
Nov-01
Nov-02
Nov-99
Nov-00
Nov-97
Nov-98
Nov-95
economic outlook will need to be monitored in order to assess
Nov-96
with the medium-term target. Again the Board suggested the
Nov-93
1%
0%
Nov-92
year”. Recent data confirms that inflation has been consistent
whether further easing will be required to support sustainable
2.50%
2%
Nov-12
average this year, with reasonable prospects of a pick-up next
4.85%
4%
Nov-94
information is consistent with global growth running a bit below
5%
Cash Rate (%)
at 2.50%. The RBA supported the decision by saying “Recent
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia / Colliers International
growth and maintain inflation outcomes within the target band.
QLD GSP forecast
QUEENSLAND ECONOMIC QUARTERLY GROWTH FORECAST
7%
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) latest national accounts
6%
data indicates Queensland’s Gross State Product (GSP) grew
the national growth rate over the next two years as a result of
3%
2%
1%
0%
sustained investment in gas projects, a recovering housing market
Australian dollar.
Queensland (GSP)
2015 Q3
2015 Q2
2015 Q1
2014 Q4
2014 Q3
2014 Q1
2014 Q2
2013 Q3
2013 Q4
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2009 Q1
2008 Q3
-1%
and increasing tourist numbers on the back of a depreciated
2009 Q2
compared to 2.5% on a national basis. QLD is forecast to outpace
4%
2008 Q4
terms, QLD’s GSP grew by 3.2% in the 12 months to September
5%
Economic Growth (%)
at an above trend level in Q3 2013. In seasonally adjusted
Australia (GDP)
Source: Deloitte Access Economics / Colliers International
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES
present would assist in rebalancing growth in the economy.
14
A Colliers International publication
HKD 4.00
HKD 3.00
USD 0.60
HKD 2.00
Source: RBA / Colliers International
Nov-13
Nov-12
May-13
Nov-11
May-12
May-11
Nov-10
May-10
Nov-09
May-09
Nov-08
May-08
Nov-07
May-07
HKD 0.00
Nov-06
HKD 1.00
USD 0.40
Nov-05
USD 0.50
HKD per AUD
HKD 5.00
USD 0.70
May-06
in the economy”. A lower level of the currency than seen at
USD 0.80
Nov-04
depreciate further, “would help to foster a rebalancing of growth
HKD 6.00
USD 10 Year Average
May-05
level at this point. The RBA has stated that the $A, should it
HKD 7.00
USD 0.90
Nov-03
whether the Australian dollar has settled at a new trading range
HKD 10 Year Average
USD 1.00
USD per AUD
approximately 10% against the Greenback, there is uncertainty
HKD 8.00
USD 1.10
from the July/August lows against most major currencies,
trading at US$0.95 in the third week of November. Having fallen
HKD 9.00
USD 1.20
In early November trading, the Australian Dollar had recovered
May-04
Exchange rate
Metro Office
APARTMENT
Dwelling approvals
ANNUALISED PRIVATE SECTOR APARTMENT APPROVALS
INNER BRISBANE & GOLD COAST
6,000
Gold Coast and Inner Brisbane apartment markets. According to
5,000
the Office of Economic and Statistical Research (OESR) there
4,000
were 2,194 and 1,538 apartments approved respectively in Inner
Brisbane and the Gold Coast. On a quarterly basis there were
No. of Approvals
Annual dwelling approvals to Q3 2013 increased across the
3,000
2,000
790 units approved in Inner Brisbane and 426 on the Gold Coast,
1,000
both well above the short term historical average. The Inner West
Brisbane
2013 Q3
2013 Q1
2013 Q2
2012 Q3
2012 Q4
2012 Q1
2012 Q2
2011 Q3
2011 Q4
2011 Q1
2011 Q2
2010 Q3
2010 Q4
2010 Q1
2010 Q2
2009 Q3
2009 Q4
2009 Q1
2009 Q2
2008 Q3
was the most active precinct on the Gold Coast.
2008 Q4
0
accounted for the majority of approvals in Brisbane while Robina
Gold Coast
Source: Colliers International
HOUSING FINANCE - QUEENSLAND
40000
11000
occupation has been on an upward trajectory since the most
recent trough in Q1 2011. On a seasonally adjusted basis, quarterly
commitments in Q3 2013 were 1.2% higher on the previous
period and 12.4% higher than the same period in 2012. The
value of housing finance has also risen with $8.2 billion worth of
commitments in the third quarter, 2.5% up on Q2 2013 and 12.5%
Number of Finance Commitments
The number of housing finance commitments for owner
10000
35000
9000
8000
30000
7000
25000
6000
higher than the same period in 2012. FHB accounted for 11% of
5000
No. of Commitments
2013 Q3
2013 Q2
2013 Q1
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2011 Q4
2012 Q1
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
2010 Q1
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2008 Q4
2009 Q1
20000
finance commitments in Q3 2013, the lowest level recorded.
Value of Commitments
Source: ABS / Colliers International
Rents
$500
MEDIAN
RENTS
weaker on the same period 12 months ago. Falling 3% and 4%
$200
for one and two bedrooms respectively. Two bedroom apartment
rents in the Inner South experienced firm growth of 5.0% over
the previous quarter.
Bris 1 Bed
Bris 2 Bed
GC 1 Bed
2013 Q3
$250
2008 Q3
rents in Brisbane were relatively flat over the quarter and slightly
2012 Q3
$300
2011 Q3
by increases across the Northern Gold Coast precincts. Median
$350
2010 Q3
apartments respectively. The upward movement was supported
$400
2009 Q3
to Q3 2013, increasing 6.9% and 3.7% for one and two bedroom
$450
Weekly Median Rent
Median apartment rents experienced some recovery over the year
GC 2 Bed
Source: RTA / Colliers International
Apartment | Research & Forecast Report | Second Half 2013
15
Value of Finance Commitments ($ millions)
Housing finance
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