spotting the mobile spenders

Transcription

© 2014 NEWZOO | DECEMBER | V1
NEWZOO FREE DATA REPORT
SPOTTING THE MOBILE SPENDERS
An Analysis of Paying Smartphone and Tablet Gamers
GLOBAL WITH A FOCUS ON US AND WESTERN EUROPE
© 2014 Newzoo
KEY 2014 FACTS
This Year
Of Them
1.5bn 32%
People Will Have Played a Game
on a Smartphone or Tablet: 51%
of the Global Online Population
NORTH AMERICA: 151M (49%)
© 2014 Newzoo
Will Have Spent Money On
or In a Mobile Game: 485
Million Consumers
NORTH AMERICA: 42% (64M)
KEY 2014 FACTS
Paying Mobile Gamers Spend
Totaling
$4.30 $25bn
Per Month On Average This
Year For All Mobile Gamers
Worldwide Combined
NORTH AMERICA: $7.68
© 2014 Newzoo
In Revenue Generated by
Tablets and (Smart)Phone
Games WorldWide
NORTH AMERICA: $5.9bn
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
Share Mobile Spenders
Close To That Of Console/PC
Mobile games, dominated by the free-to-play business
model, are not as different from console or PC gaming as
one might think in terms of paying players. In two years
time, the share of spenders on a global scale has risen from
36% to 46% in Western Europe and the US combined. This
share is 67% for console gaming and 59% for gamers that
play MMO type games. This increase in paying mobile
gamers is one of the main drivers of revenue growth in
mature markets. Monthly single digit conversion rates of
individual games are often misinterpreted as share of
mobile gamers that spends money.
© 2014 Newzoo
Of all US & W-EU Mobile
Gamers This Year
46%
Spends Money, Compared
to 36% 2 Years Ago.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
Amazon Best in
Reaching (Big) Spenders
Analysts and press focus predominantly on the iPhone,
iPad and Google Play app stores. The Amazon Appstore
on Fire devices, Android, and preloaded on BlackBerry is
often overlooked. A closer look not only reveals large
absolute gamer numbers in the US and Western Europe
but, more importantly, shows that gamers using the
Amazon Appstore are the most likely to spend money. In
addition, it boasts a relative high reach amongst the
valuable family-oriented demographic. Developing and
marketing games for the Amazon Appstore could prove
most effective compared to other app stores and is
certainly undervalued at the moment.
© 2014 Newzoo
Of all Mobile Gamers that
use the Amazon Appstore,
64%
Spends Money on Mobile
Games vs 41% on Average
and 37% for Google Play.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
Screen Segmentation:
Mobile Can Take 50%
When slicing gamer revenue data across the four typical
screens used by a consumer, it comes as less of a surprise
that the share of mobile games has grown so explosively
towards the 29% it will take this year. According to our
Screen Segmentation ModelTM, it could grow to 50%.
COMPUTER
© 2014 Newzoo
ENTERTAINMENT
FLOATING
PERSONAL
In 2017, Mobile Games
Are Anticipated To Take
37%
Of Global Games Market
Revenues. 29% This Year.
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
Growth Will Continue,
Driven by Multiple KPIs
The mobile games market in mature markets is not saturated
as some analysts claim. Investigating app store revenues and
single-game metrics does not reveal the dynamics behind
growth. Understanding growth potential requires looking at
KPIs in a broader manner, revealing key local differences.
POPULATION
© 2014 Newzoo
CONNECTIVITY
GAMERS
SPENDERS
AVG. SPEND/MONTH
REVENUES
Of the $7.4Bn Year-on-Year
Growth of Mobile Revenues,
58%
Was Generated by Mature
Markets (NAM/W-EU, JP/KOR).
KEY TAKE-AWAYS
The Big Spender Is a Family
Man With A Full-Time Job
The majority of (big) spenders on mobile are male and have
kids. For men the share of spenders rises with age, for women
it drops. On average one in five mobile spenders is a man older
than 35. Spenders are also most likely to have a full-time job
and a large income. More than a third of mobile spenders play
together with their children regularly and spend a large share
of their game budget on their kids. Mobile spenders do a lot
more shopping, are more active on Twitter and Google+ and
have a distinct preference for certain mobile service providers.
In-depth profiling of spenders illustrates that this is a valuable
target audience also outside of their game spending behaviour.
© 2014 Newzoo
Of All Mobile Spenders on
iPad & Amazon Fire Devices,
51%
Have Children at Home versus
34% for All Non-Spenders.
INTRODUCTION
This year, games played on phones and tablets will gross $25Bn in revenues worldwide. With
1.5 billion mobile gamers, it is easily the most popular games market segment on the planet.
This immense audience will ensure the market share of mobile will continue to rise.
Depending on region, a specific “stack” of growth KPIs is at work, including rising connected
population, share of paying gamers and average spend. Analysis of data on these KPIs,
confirms that there still is enough room for growth, also in mature markets such as the US
and Japan. Mobile gaming has tapped into new game time and wallets but cannibalization of
other market segments is increasing. This does not imply that console and PC gaming are
going to disappear or be decimated by these portable screens. After all, from a consumer
perspective, these are different screens with their own characteristics and role in a persons’
life.
We aim to provide our clients insights that go further than app store data and in-game
metrics, ultimately to outsmart competition. To do this, we combine financial market analysis,
primary consumer research in 25 countries, app store / transactional data and census KPIs for
the top 120 countries by game revenues. This report provides a glimpse of what we do. It also
aims to take away a number of common misperceptions, including:
The US mobile games market is saturated
The share of spenders for mobile is significantly lower than for PC and console
Overestimation of mobile games revenues in Latin America
Underestimation of the Asian market in general and Japan specifically
Undervaluation of revenues generated outside of iOS and Google Play
2014 GLOBAL MOBILE GAMES MARKET | GAMERS & REVENUES
© 2014 Newzoo | Source: Global Games Market Report Premium
150M
MOBILE GAMERS
NAM
MOBILE REVENUES
© 2014 Newzoo
Peter Warman
CEO Newzoo
MOBILE GAMERS
EMEA
MOBILE REVENUES
$5.9Bn
$5.0Bn
$0.5Bn
$13.5Bn
MOBILE REVENUES
LATAM
MOBILE GAMERS
Enjoy our latest report. Feedback is more than welcome!
450M
160M
MOBILE REVENUES
APAC
MOBILE GAMERS
740M
MOBILE SPENDERS ON THE RISE
SHARE OF SPENDERS PER MARKET SEGMENT FOR US, UK, GER, FR | 2012 VS 2014
Mobile
Console
MMO
Free-to-play smartphone and tablet gaming evolve
and show a similar share of spenders as console
and PC gaming.
A common misunderstanding is that a pay-upfront
business models give a 100% player/spender ratio. In
the case of console gamers in the US, UK, Germany
and France for instance, 33% of console gamers
never spend any money. The share of paying players
used to be even lower (59% in 2012) but digital
distribution and DLC has helped to match smaller
budgets. For mobile games, the ratio has gone up
from 36% to 46% in two years time, a key driver of
revenue growth in mature markets. Monthly single
digit conversion rates of individual games are often
misinterpreted as share of mobile gamers that
spends money.
AGGREGATE OF US, UK, FR, GER
© 2014 Newzoo
SPENDERS DIFFER PER COUNTRY
SHARE OF MOBILE GAME SPENDERS PER COUNTRY | 2014
AVG
Behind the size of a market in total
revenues, gamer behavior differs
enormously per country. Understanding
these complex dynamics can result in
smart international and marketing
strategies.
Surprisingly, Spain has the second highest
share of big spenders after the US, with
7.1% of Spanish paying gamers classed as
whales. Fellow European countries,
Germany & The Netherlands, have the
smallest share of whales with less than
4% each – lower than both Poland and
Turkey.
MOBILE GAMERS
BIG SPENDERS
260M 6.8M
IN THESE 10 COUNTRIES COMBINED
© 2014 Newzoo
© 2014 Newzoo
HOW APPSTORES COMPARE
AMAZON REACHES (BIG) SPENDERS BEST
SHARE OF MOBILE GAME SPENDERS PER APPSTORE | US, UK, GER, FR | 2014
© 2014 Newzoo | Source: Newzoo Data Explorer
iPhone
47.7%
iPad
57.1%
Google Play
36.5%
Amazon
64.2%
LEVEL OF SPENDING AMONGST ALL MOBILE GAME SPENDERS PER APPSTORE | US, UK, GER, FR | 2014
While the world focuses on the battle
between iOS and Google Play, it is
Amazon that reaches the most
valuable crowd.
A closer look at spending behaviour per
app store not only reveals large absolute
gamer numbers but, more importantly,
shows that gamers using the Amazon
Appstore are the most likely to spend
money. These gamers also have a high
share of big spenders characteristic for
tablets such as Amazon’s most popular
devices: the Fire Tablets. Combined with
it’s more family-oriented demographics,
the opportunity might be largely
underestimated, suggesting developers
should shift marketing resources
towards the Amazon Appstore.
© 2014 Newzoo
SURFACE, FIRE TABLET, IPAD GAMERS EARN MOST
SHARE OF HIGH EARNERS AMONGST MOBILE GAMERS PER APP STORE | US, UK, GER, FR | 2014
The app stores on iPad, Surface
and Fire tablets reach mobile
gamers with a relatively high
income.
On average, 19% of the online
population in the US, Germany and
France has a high income. Google
Play with its large and broad user
base equals the average score. The
stores that are used on tablets have
a share of mobile gamers with a
high income that is twice the
average. The Windows Surface
scores best, just ahead of the iPad
and Amazon’s Fire tablets
© 2014 Newzoo
JAPAN, WORLD’S LARGEST MOBILE MARKET
IPHONE, IPAD, Google Play STORE USE AMONGST MOBILE GAME SPENDERS AND NON-SPENDERS | JAPAN | 2014
44% of all spenders (aged 10
to 50, Japan) use the iPhone
App Store to download
games
Japan’s feature phone gaming
heritage evolves into
smartphone and tablet gaming
and results in an epic battle
between Google Play and iOS
for the market that will reach
$6Bn this year.
As it currently stands, the Google
Play Store has a higher reach
amongst Japanese gamers than
both of Apple’s stores. Over 50%
of (non)paying gamers are using
the Playstore store to download
games. Paying gamers are much
more likely to use the Apple App
store for iPad store than nonpaying gamers.
SINGLE COUNTRY SCOPE: JAPAN
© 2014 Newzoo
PROFILING THE MOBILE GAME SPENDER
© 2014 Newzoo
MA JORITY OF SPENDERS ARE MALE
AGE / GENDER SPLIT FOR PAYING MOBILE GAMERS PER APPSTORE | US, UK, GER, FR | 2014
39%
61%
39%
61%
35%
65%
36%
64%
Mobile games equally attract
male and female players but
when it comes to spending
money, the demographic
skews male.
Across the app stores, males
make up between 61%-65% of
the paying gamers depending
on app store. The Amazon
Appstore has the highest share
of older paying gamers, with
24% male between the age of
36-50. Paying gamers using the
Apple App Store for iPhone
skew the youngest.
© 2014 Newzoo
TABLETS FIND A FAMILY HOME
HOME SITUATION FOR PAYING MOBILE GAMERS PER APPSTORE | US, UK, GER, FR | 2014
Half of mobile game spenders
has kids at home. Tablet
spenders are more likely to
have kids at home.
A slight majority (51%) of both
iPad and Fire Tablet mobile
game spenders lives with
children at home. More than
one third of parents play games
with their kids regularly and
more than half of mobile game
spending Dads state that the
majority of their money is spent
on games for their kids.
© 2014 Newzoo
US SPENDERS ARE TWEETERS
SOCIAL NETWORKS / APPS USED BY (NON-)SPENDING MOBILE GAMERS | US | 2014
Mobile game spenders are
huge digital media
consumers and more active
on social networks than nonspenders.
American mobile game
spenders are more active
users of social networks and
apps, particularly Twitter,
Google+, Flickr and WhatsApp.
54% is an active user of Twitter
versus 40% of non-spenders.
Facebook use is close to equal
for non-spenders and people
that pay.
SINGLE COUNTRY SCOPE: US
© 2014 Newzoo
US SPENDERS PREFER AT&T
MOBILE SERVICE PROVIDER USED BY (NON-)SPENDING MOBILE GAMERS | US | 2014
American mobile game
spenders prefer the bigger
brands when choosing a
mobile service provider:
AT&T and Verizon.
A surprising 24% of nonspenders in the US does not
go for one of the four biggest
telecom providers but selects
a smaller player, most
probably in a quest to get a
better deal. AT&T beats
Verizon in terms of popularity
amongst paying mobile
gamers.
© 2014 Newzoo
US SPENDERS ARE SHOPPERS AND LIKE TECH
RETAIL STORE POPULARITY AMONGST (NON-)SPENDING MOBILE GAMERS | US | 2014
There is a strong correlation
between mobile game
spending behaviour and
spending outside of
entertainment and digital
media.
In general, mobile spenders visit
more different stores in a month
period than non-spenders.
BestBuy, Gamestop, Macy’s,
Sears and Gap are far more
popular amongst paying mobile
gamers than the non-spenders.
This shows this is a valuable
target audience not only when it
comes to digital content.
© 2014 Newzoo
WHAT MAKES A CONSUMER START P(L)AYING?
© 2014 Newzoo
OPINION GETS GET PEOPLE PLAYING
WHAT DRIVES A CONSUMER TO START PLAYING (OR DOWNLOAD) A MOBILE GAME | US, UK, GER, FR | AGE 10-50 | 2014
The consumer’s voice is
clearly the most important
in selecting a game to play.
A recommendation from
family & friends is a universal
motivator for people to start
playing a particular game.
Good reviews are another key
driver, highlighting the
importance that gamers
place on & their trust in the
opinions of their peers.
© 2014 Newzoo
BIG SPENDERS ARE MORE COMPETITIVE
REASONS WHY A (MINOR/BIG SPENDING ) MOBILE GAMER STARTS SPENDING | US, UK, GER, FR | AGE 10-50 | 2014
The big spenders want to
feel they are special and
hope to get a competitive
advantage compared to
others. Minor spenders are
in it for the (extra) fun.
Large spenders are far more
motivated to pay by getting a
premium account & being
able to compete than minor
spenders. Alternatively,
making the game more fun is
a more important reason to
pay for the minor spenders.
© 2014 Newzoo
BIG SPENDERS TRY MORE GAMES
MAIN REASONS TO STOP PLAYING A MOBILE GAME AMONGST MINOR/BIG SPENDERS | US, UK, GER, FR | AGE 10-50 | 2014
Big spenders are more
pressed for time and always
on the lookout for a new
(and better) game. Minor
spenders leave when they
are bored with the game.
Boredom is the key reason
for minor spenders to leave a
game (43%) though this is far
less important for the big
spenders (23%) who are
most likely to quit once they
have completed all levels of a
game.
© 2014 Newzoo
WHY GROWTH WILL CONTINUE
© 2014 Newzoo
GLOBAL GROWTH CONTINUES
EARLY 2014 AND FRESH GLOBAL REVENUE ESTIMATES FOR (SMART)PHONE AND TABLET GAMES | 2013-2017
Note: As part of the premium subscription to its Global Games Market Report, Newzoo updates clients on segments and
regions every quarter based on continuous industry and market analysis. Results for the first nine months of 2014 have led
Newzoo to adjust its 2014 full year forecasts, as well as the projections towards 2017. The figures below provide a summary
of the revisions relating to mobile games.
Fuelled by simultaneous growth
in emerging as well as mature
markets, mobile gaming will
surpass $25Bn this year.
Both “mature” Western &
emerging markets will show
strong growth this year. The
North American market is
expected to grow 51% y-o-y and
Western Europe by 47%. The
fastest growth can be found in
emerging Southeast Asian
markets and China (+86%).
Mobile is now expected to
become the largest game
segment by revenues in 2015,
GLOBAL DATA
GROWTH DYNAMICS DIFFER PER REGION
KEY KPI’S BEHIND MOBILE GAMES REVENUE GROWTH | NORTH AMERICA, GLOBAL | 2014
POPULATION
358M
CONNECTIVITY
86%
MOBILE
GAMERS
151M
MOBILE
SPENDERS
43%
MOBILE
AVG. SPEND/MONTH
$7.68
MOBILE
REVENUES
$5.9Bn
As growth occurs on
multiple levels, the ultimate
end result is that market
revenues soar. For each
country in the world, the
dynamics are different.
For mature markets such as
North America, growth will be
primarily driven by an
increase in paying gamers &
average monthly spend.
Developing markets will
flourish as online connectivity
and the number of mobile
gamers continues to rise.
GLOBAL AND NAM DATA
7.2Bn
© 2014 Newzoo
41%
1.5Bn
32%
$4.30
$25.0Bn
WHY MOBILE CAN TAKE HALF OF THE MARKET
SHARE OF 2014 TOTAL GAME REVENUES PER SCREENS | GLOBAL & NAM
GLOBAL
27.7%
NAM
44.0%
GLOBAL
13.1%
NAM
15.2%
© 2014 Newzoo
GLOBAL
38.7%
NAM
25.6%
GLOBAL
20.4%
NAM
15.1%
Divide in game revenues is slowly
moving towards an equal split
across the four typical screens a
consumer has to access his or her
digital content. Global figures are
easily interpreted within the
reference of one’s own country,
especially in the US.
The Personal Screen, or
(smart)phone currently takes 20.4%
of all game revenues globally and
15.1% in NAM. We expect NAM to
move closer to the global average
before 2017, and for the Floating
Screen to take an increasingly wider
share of revenues across the globe.
GLOBAL AND NAM DATA
ABOUT NEWZOO
Company
Newzoo is an innovative global market research firm with a
primary focus on games. We provide our clients with a mix of
consumer research, transactional data and financial analysis
across all continents, screens and business models. We aim to be
ahead the curve when it comes to global and local trends and
always put hard data into a broader perspective.
We work for the majority of top 25 public companies by game
revenue, many independent game developers as well as a variety
of global hardware and media companies. The majority of our
clients are based in the US, Japan and China. Our company has its
headquarters in the center of Amsterdam. We recently kicked-off
our international expansion with an office in Shanghai, China.
WWW.NEWZOO.COM
© 2014 Newzoo
Services
The data in this report is derived mainly from two of our products:
Global Games Market Report Premium (12 months subscription)
Global, Regional, Top 100 Countries
Annual PDF Report on Trends, Revenue/Gamer Data, Future Projections
Granular Datasets (Updated Quarterly): 2013-2017 Gamer/Revenue Data
Quarterly Updates with Trends, Mobile, Company Performance, M&A
www.newzoo.com/globalreportpremium
In-Depth Consumer Insights (12 months subscription)
Available for 25 countries
Cross-Analyze over 200 variables in the Newzoo Data Explorer
Continuous custom analysis support by our analysts
www.newzoo.com/newzoo-data-explorer
[email protected]
© 2014 NEWZOO | NOVEMBER
NEWZOO FREE DATA REPORT
SPOTTING THE MOBILE SPENDERS
An Analysis of Paying Smartphone and Tablet Gamers
GLOBAL WITH A FOCUS ON US AND WESTERN EUROPE
© 2014 Newzoo

spotting the mobile spenders

Transcription

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