US Letter - Metal Bulletin Research

A Strategic Market
Outlook for Regional
US Ferrous Scrap to 2021
New
and Exclusive
for 2014
l Which US scrap regions are growing and which are facing depleting reservoirs?
l How will ferrous scrap prices change over time?
l What are the intra-regional scrap trade flows within the US, and what will this mean to scrap suppliers?
New
and Exclusive
for 2014
A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional
US Ferrous Scrap to 2021
l Unique analysis of how to
predict and understand
US scrap prices –
nationally and regionally
l How regional crude steel
production dynamics will
affect current and future
scrap prices
l How intra-regional scrap
recovery rates and trade
flows by product type will
change going forward
l How serious the issue of
scrap quality will be on
the industry
l How scrap will relate to
pig iron and DRI/HBI
Future concerns for the US scrap market
Over the past few months, the over capacity of shredders within the US has reduced the price premium
shredded scrap commands over HMS grades down from $30/tonne to around $15/tonne, at the time of
writing. Meanwhile, the busheling price margin over shredded has returned to within its traditional range.
However, beyond these short-term considerations lies the fact that the US scrap industry is facing a
crisis of profitability, quality requirements to best meet domestic steelmaker requirements and changes
to the availability and price dynamics of alternative metallics. Over the next ten years, merger and
acquisition activity will intensify as the internal landscape will also undergo significant changes in terms
of trade flows, recovery and transaction prices.
What is the future outlook for the US
ferrous scrap industry?
This new scrap report follows on from the highly successful US State-byState Steel study (published in July 2013) that focused on steel
consumption in the US between 1994 and 2021.
AMM Research has conducted a fully independent research study on the US scrap industry by product
type out to 2021, which aims to bring never seen before market intelligence vital to the interests of both
scrap buyers and sellers.
This brand new study is the most detailed and comprehensive examination of the US ferrous scrap
market providing detailed analysis and data broken down for 14 key US regions.
Each US region is evaluated on a standalone basis to best understand historic, current and
forecast supply and demand dynamics (1996-2021).
“Undeniably Metal Bulletin Research is an information provider
throwing an objective light on often bifurcated information. Essential!”
Krista Van Bergen, SteelFORCE Asia NV
The study details the following in terms
of providing analysis, data and forecasts
(out to 2021) for the following:
US scrap consumption (including EAF, oxygen furnace,
iron foundry and blast furnace enrichment)
US scrap recovery
• Revert
Key analysis of all US regional ferrous
scrap markets
A key feature of this report is its regional focus on the
ferrous scrap markets broken out by the following:
• Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,
New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont
• Pennsylvania
• Illinois
• Prompt
• Indiana
• Obsolete (including newly obsolete)
• Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska,
South Dakota, Wisconsin
Scrap trade – Net inter-regional US trade by region
• Michigan
A detailed scrap reservoir model
• Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia
• Ohio
A fully dynamic and “open-source” forecasting scrap
market model to run your own “what if scenarios” to
changing parameters
• Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina
• Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee
• Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma
• Texas
A comprehensive historic and forecast ferrous scrap
prices database which includes:
• Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Utah
• California, Oregon, Washington
• No1 Bundles
• No1 Bushelings
• Auto Shredded
For each US region, the report provides analysis and
data (1996-2021) for the following:
• No1 Heavy
• Scrap consumption
In the following areas:
• Scrap generation (split between revert (home), prompt
and obselete)
• Birmingham, Alabama
• Scrap recovery
• Chicago, Illinois
• Scrap imports and exports
• Charlotte, North Carolina
• Net interregional scrap trade
• Cleveland, Ohio
• Scrap reservoir – specifically designed to identify
which areas have growing supply and which have
nearly exhausted reservoirs
• Detroit, Michigan
• Houston, Texas
• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
• St Louis, Missouri
Number of U.S. Scrap
Shredders by State
3
1
3
Key:
Number of
shredders
1
7
1
7
1
3
7
2
9
4
17
9
6
10
4
8
2
12
13
5
8
26
5
3
7
7
4
13
10
6
3
17
Scrap consumption
rates in the US
by region
Key:
0 - 3,000
3,001 - 6,000
6,001 - 9,000
9,001 - 12,000
12,001 - 15,000
To order please call the hotline 212 224 3577 or email [email protected]
New
and Exclusive
for 2014
About AMM Research
AMM Research is the leading independent supplier of market intelligence and pricing to the North American metals industries and
publisher of the widely-used reference prices for scrap. American Metal Market (AMM), was founded in 1882, over its long history has
established itself as the unrivaled leader in metals news and pricing in North America. AMM and sister publication Metal Bulletin are part of
the Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc.
AMM Research (known as Metal Bulletin Research outside the US) is the independent market research and consultancy arm. Utilizing our
team of US consultants and economists based in Pittsburgh, Washington and Boston, AMM Research has conducted the most exhaustive
and informative study on the US scrap industry availably anywhere.
Biographers/authors of the US ferrous scrap study
B. Levich – Consultancy & Special Projects
Director of Metal Bulletin Research
Brian covers the global steel and raw material sectors in detail. He
has written numerous major reports on the global steel, raw
materials, and finished product industries and has done extensive
consultancy and market research work for a number of major steel
producers and consumers as well as for financial institutions.
A. Craig – Principal Consultant
Alexander is principal consultant with Metal Bulletin Research
focusing on the global metals and mining industries. He has
worked for both McKinsey & Company and Accenture. Craig
studied economics at the University of Cambridge, where he took
a First Class degree. He subsequently undertook postgraduate
study at MIT in econometrics and public finance.
R. Egge – Principal Consultant
With over 18 years of experience as a strategic consultant for the
global metals/mining industry, Mr Egge has worked at Arthur D.
Little, Accenture and Deloitte. He has significant experience in
helping metals and mining clients identify, quantify, prioritize and
capture value creation opportunities. While at Arthur D Little he
worked hand and hand with the C-suite of an integrated metals
company in the United States to develop a business case for the
development of raw material reserves. Russell has a degree in
Materials and Metallurgical Engineering from the University of
Michigan (Ann Arbor Michigan) and a Masters Science in
International Management from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute
(Hartford Connecticut).
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Other relevant Metal Bulletin Research publications include:
• A Strategic Outlook for the Global Ferrous Scrap Industry out to 2021
• Steel Scrap & Metallics Forecaster
• A New Age for Steel Metallics: for Obsolete Scrap, Prompt Industrial Scrap, Home (Revert) Scrap, Pig Iron,
DRI/HBI and Iron Ore
• Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker
• Steel: Weekly Market Tracker
• Shareholder Value in the US Steel Industry A Critical Framework to Drive Future Company Performance
• Coking Coal: A Strategic Market Outlook to 2020
• A Strategic Market Review and Outlook for the Middle East and North African Steel Industry to 2020
• Mining five years of iron ore data
• Global Steel Cost Service
• Steelmaking Capacity and Capex Study
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Study published January 2014
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