January 2012
Transcription
January 2012
Contents DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Chamber Views 01 National Economy 07 Chamber News SAARC News Asia-Pacific News Middle East News Monthly Bulletin of the Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (In-house Circulation Only) Vol. XXXII No. 31 (January 01 to January 31, 2012) Published on 29 February, 2012 International News 02 15 19 22 25 xÄmJh KmKY©J 30 Currency/Share 35 Study Tour of Re-Tie Project Trade Information Pictorial 34 36 37 MEMBERS OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS PRESIDENT Mr. Asif Ibrahim REVIEW ADVISORY BOARD SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT Founder Chairman Late Nuruddin Ahmed DIRECTORS Dr. Mizanur Rahman Shelley Mr. Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA Mr. M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan Mr. Mahabub Anam Mr. T. I. M. Nurul Kabir Mr. Waqar Ahmad Choudhury Mr. ASM Mohiuddin Monem Mr. Osman Gani Mr. Khairul Majid Mahmud Mr. K.M.N. Manjurul Hoque Mr. Abul Hossain Mr. Osama Taseer Mr. Md. Iftekharuddin (Naushad) Mr. K. G. Karim Mr. Absar Karim Chowdhury Mr. M. Abu Horaira Mr. Kh. Shahidul Islam Mr. Hossain A. Sikder Chairman Members Mr. Sayed Kamaluddin Mr. Moazzem Hossain Mr. A S M Quasem Mr. Zaglul Ahmed Chowdhury Mr. M. A. Momen Mr. Hossain Khaled Published by : Dhaka Chamber of Commerce & Industry (DCCI) 65-66 Motijheel Commercial Area Dhaka-1000, Phone : 9552562 (Hunting) Fax : 880-2-9560830 E-mail : [email protected] [email protected] Web Site : http://www.dhakachamber.com Chamber Views DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Managing external account Bangladesh has to follow a cautious path, in close consultations with economists and chamber bodies, as growing external and domestic risks looming over Bangladesh’s economy have made its GDP growth outlook for 2012 fiscal year uncertain. Prolonged slowdown in the global economy could affect the country’s economy through several channels. The deceleration can affect the country’s balance of payments through its impact on exports and remittances and can put pressure on the exchange rate. As a result, the economic uncertainty can increase, which might weaken investment and growth. Moreover, a slow pace of reforms in Bangladesh can affect the rate of investment, as can inadequate energy supply and poor infrastructure quality. The changes in trade reforms and weakening of the financial sector can also affect export growth and investment in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has limited room for cushioning the impact of a second global slowdown if it happens, said Sanjay Kathuria, World Bank’s lead country economist for Bangladesh, quite rightly. He said, rapid growth in subsidies and monetary financing of the fiscal deficit have led to the decline in maneuverability. There is no denying that the economy faces some short-term challengespersistent double-digit inflation is eroding poor and middle class families' purchasing power, high government borrowing threatens to crowd out private investment and the liquidity problem is hurting the business and costing Bangladesh's most important price-exchange rate. However, the economy have some pluses as compensation-robust export performance and marginal growth in remittances amidst global crisis and sustained agriculture growth were some of them. Nevertheless, there is one major development in the global economy that is hurting the Bangladesh economy badlyeconomic crises generally cause the decline of commodity prices. However, this time is apparently different. The reason is that emerging markets are now new engines of global growth replacing the developed world. There is little sign that commodity prices, particularly of energy, will abate anytime soon thanks to strong demand from developing and emerging economies. Even in the case of the United States, energy prices have driven 2011 inflation with fuel oil surging 25%. Moreover, commodities are priced in US dollars. When the value of the dollar weakens against other major currencies including taka, the prices of commodities generally move up. While the dollar index is on decline the Bangladesh taka rather depreciates vis-à-vis the US dollar. As a result, importers are ending up paying more, eventually passing the extra cost through to the consumers. Further, demand for imported petroleum in the country has increased tremendously to fuel the quick rental electricity plants. All these developments have put severe pressure on the balance of payments (BoP). The extraordinary export growth (41 percent) of last year is slowing down this year due to the deteriorating economic conditions in the US and the EU, two markets that consume Bangladesh's 75 percent exports. Exports to the US decreased in the first quarter of 2011-12. Knitwear export to the EU has also dropped. Though import growth would slowdown, fuel import will keep on rising. A decline in remittance inflow and pressure on exchange rate are also threatening the economy. Now the government has little option but to seek an International Monetary Fund bailout to address the BoP problem. Since there is no free lunch, the government has to adjust energy prices and rein in borrowing from the banking sector, among others, to access the IMF fund. This means some pro-poor programmes, including subsidies, have to be curtailed. The advantage Bangladesh has is that its external debt is less than 25% of its GDP -- which is one of the lowest in the world. Moreover, it has better growth prospects. The government should not completely surrender its policy autonomy to the IMF, curtailing its development expenditures and jeopardising the economy's medium to long-term prospects. This brings the next critical issue concerning the economy. While the existing short-term challenges need to be addressed sooner rather than later, they should not be at the cost of the country's medium-term potential. The economy still shows much promise to grow at 7% to 8% in the near future because of the age of economic convergence, favourable demographic changes, steady urbanisation, strong domestic demand and better social indicators, among others. In materialising Bangladesh's medium to long-term prospects, the challenges are not merely its unstable politics, poor governance and weak institutions. Interestingly, with all these adverse factors, Bangladesh has demonstrated steady growth in the past-what many call the "Bangladesh Paradox." Some argue that higher than the current growth is only possible if those binding growth constraints are addressed. There is also a worrying trend-the rise of "illiberal state." Instead of promoting the development of private sector and the social sector, the state uses its different organs to discriminate business outfits, giving a wrong signal to FDI and further weakening the institutions. DCCI feels, the short-term challenges could markedly destabilise the economy's macroeconomic stability, jeopardising the country's medium-term prospects, if not addressed prudently. However, crises also offer some opportunities. 1 Chamber News DCCI Review January 31st 2012 DCCI calls for better railway services DCCI organized a seminar on 'Revival of Railway's Potential Role for Business Expansion' at DCCI on January 26. Minister for Railways Suranjit Sen Gupta, M.P. was present as chief guest while Secretary of Ministry of Railways Fazle Kabir and Chairman of Standard Bank Ltd. Kazi Akramuddin Ahamed were present as special guests. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim in his address of welcome said, shortage of wagon and locomotive, lack of operational skills and infrastructure are some of the main hindrances to the development of railway sector. He stressed on increasing railway container traffic, direct linkages between railway to both the ports and utilization of effective telecommunication facilities for better services in railway. The DCCI President also called for framing a master plan and its implementation based on Integrated Multimode Transport Policy (IMTP). He recommended punctuality of 2 trains, modernization of ticket selling and other services including enhancing speed of goods train. Besides, he underscored the importance of converting single line into double line, increasing skilled manpower and better maintenance of rail-crossings. Railways has adopted short, medium and long term planning for the development of railway. A guideline will be framed for the maximum utilization of Railway's land, he informed. He also stressed on modernization of ticketing system of Bangladesh Railway. The Minister emphasized on enhancing services of railway, developing skilled workforce, establishing industry for spare parts of rail. He called upon the private sector to come forward in infrastructure development and import of coach and locomotive. He welcomed PPP in developing railway sector. Dr. M Rahmatullah, Transport Policy and Planning Specialist and former Director (Transport), UN-ESCAP, Bangkok presented the keynote paper. He emphasized on reformation of railway, increasing fund allocation, revising fares and freight structures and more private sector involvment in the railway sector. Minister for Railways Suranjit Sen Gupta, M.P. stressed on recovering the occupied land of railway and having proper land use plan for development of railway. He said, railway sector is important for socioeconomic development of our country. Secretary of Ministry of Railways Fazle Kabir said that the Ministry of Chairman of Standard Bank Ltd. Kazi Akramuddin Ahamed said, railway was neglected in the past. He said that Bangladesh could be the railway hub in the South Asian region, because we have every potential for this. Additional Director General of Bangladesh Railway M Shahjahan, Minister for Railways Suranjit Sen Gupta, M.P. (third from right) speaking at a seminar on 'Revival of Railway's Potential Role for Business Expansion' at DCCI on January 26. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (fourth from right), Secretary of Ministry of Railways Fazle Kabir (second from right), DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (fourth from left), Chairman of Standard Bank Ltd. Kazi Akramuddin Ahamed (fifth from left), Transport Policy and Planning Specialist and former Director (Transport), UN-ESCAP, Bangkok Dr. M Rahmatullah (left), DCCI Directors M. Abu Horaira (third from left), Kh. Shahidul Islam (second from left) and Mahabub Anam (left) are also seen in the picture Chamber News Professor of Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET) Dr. M Shamim Z Basunia and Director of DCCI M. Abu Horaira also spoke as designated discussants. They said, Cord Line will reduce travel time from Dhaka to Chittagong. They also emphasized on having skilled manpower and a master plan for future development of our railway. DCCI Senior Vice President Haider DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Ahmed Khan, FCA gave vote of thanks. DCCI former Presidents Aftab-ul Islam and Abul Kasem Khan, former DG of Bangladesh Railway Atique Hossain Khan, DCCI Directors Waqar Ahmad Choudhury, ASM Mohiuddin Monem and Khairul Majid Mahmud, former Senior Vice Presidents Alhaj Abdus Salam, Ashraf Ibne Noor and Hossain Akter, DCCI Convenor Khair Resolve liquidity crisis, bring down inflation rate : DCCI Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) expressed its deep concern over the current political situation saying that it might affect the country's businesses and hamper economic growth. "There is a possibility of political instability during 2012. It is a matter of great concern for the country's total business and economy. The business community expects political compromise for the interest of national economy," said President of DCCI Asif Ibrahim at Meet the Press at the auditorium of the chamber on January 8. He called upon the political leaders to allow the country's businesses to move forward without any hindrance. The head of the chamber body also urged the political parties to resolve the caretaker issue which is at the centre point of the present political crisis. brings nothing; rather it affects the country's economy," he said. Regarding observation of the Prime Minister on the country's economic situation as 'good', he said, "Our (businessmen's) view is different as our perception is also different. We face difficulties as we do business. He also called upon the government to maintain smooth supply of power and gas to the industries as many of those could not start their operations due to the crisis. He also suggested that the state machinery should resolve the liquidity crisis that is hampering the country's overall M Khan and Dr. Ferdousi Begum of Ferdousi Biotech took part in the open discussion session. DCCI Directors M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan, Mahabub Anam, Osman Gani, K.M.N. Manjurul Hoque, Abul Hossain, Absar Karim Chowdhury, Kh. Shahidul Islam, Hossain A. Sikder and Secretary Mustafa Mohiuddin were also present. businesses, rein in the sharp declining rate of Taka against US dollar and rationalise the lending rate by the banks. He said the double digit inflation has been affecting the country's economy. "Bringing down the inflation below double digit could help raise the value of Taka against the US dollar that could ensure balance of trade," he said. He said the declining trend of foreign exchange reserve is also a big challenge for the country's economy. "The double digit inflation may bring disaster to the country's economy and is likely to hamper achievement of 7.0 "We, the business people, don't know politics; rather we care about the interest of country's economy. We fear the country's political landscape could turn worse over the caretaker issue. The political parties should resolve under which system the next general elections would be held," he said. He, however, lauded the opposition for choosing the peaceful road march programme instead of hartal. "Hartal DCCI Presidnet Asif Ibrahim (third from right) speaking at Meet The Press on 8 January at DCCI. DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (second from right), Directors Khairul Majid Mahmud (right), Kh. Shahidul Islam (third from left), Osman Gani (second from left), M. Abu Horaira (left) are also seen in the picture 3 Chamber News per cent GDP growth," Asif Ibrahim mentioned. On the issue of giving transit to India, he said Bangladesh would be benefited if it provides transshipment to India rather than transit. Asif said if the country could increase internal resources through widening of tax nets, then it would be possible for the country to reduce dependency on foreign aid being provided by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF). He expressed disappointment that even after the passage of three years DCCI Review January 31st 2012 of the present government, the road communication between Dhaka and Chittagong is yet to be upgraded. He called upon the government to develop the road and railways communication between Dhaka and Chitttagong, infrastructure and ports. The DCCI president favoured coalbased plants to generate power for mitigating the increasing industrial demand. "We should have an alternative source for power generation since the reserve of our gas is limited," he said. With reference to the capital market he suggested giving an institutionalized shape to Dhaka Stock Exchange. Citing the role of the chamber body, Asif Ibrahim said apart from holding seminars and roundtables periodically on different issues, the DCCI has also taken different projects for the development of the IT sector, strengthening of public-private partnership, automation of Dhaka Customs House and human resource development through imparting courses on BBA to the students with competitive cost. Asif Ibrahim seeks more initiatives to raise Dhaka-Colombo trade volume A 10-member delegation from the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka, led by its President Asoka Hetiogoda, called on DCCI President Asif Ibrahim at DCCI on January 24, 2012. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim, while welcoming the delegation, said, even though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are tied with different regional and international agreements, the present level of bilateral trade between the two countries is far from satisfactory and it still remains at a very low level. He said that both the countries should take initiatives as per SAFTA to promote welfare of the people of Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to improve the quality of their lives and to strengthen cooperation among themselves in international forums on matters of common interest and to cooperate with international and regional organizations with similar aims and purposes. 4 Asif Ibrahim said, recently direct air connectivity between Dhaka and Colombo has been started. This will increase people-to-people and B2B connection between the two countries. He informed that the government of Bangladesh has provided various opportunities and a unique package of incentives for foreign investors. He welcomed the Sri Lankan investors to invest in the agro-based sectors like food and food processing, paper and pulp from jute, agricultural products like potato seeds, coconut coir products, flowers and ornamental plants, gas-based industries, power, fertilizer, renewable energy, backward linkage of RMG including composite textile mills, IT sector, leather and leather goods, ceramics, pharmaceuticals, electronics, light engineering, steel, infrastructure development, hospitals, education, tourism and hotels etc. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (eighth from left) presenting a bouquet to President of National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka Asoka Hetiogoda (sixth from left) on January 24 at DCCI. DCCI Directors and Members of the Delegation are also seen in the picture Chamber News President of National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka Asoka Hetiogoda said, the economy of Sri Lanka has improved a lot after the just- ended war. He informed, the GDP growth of Sri Lanka is now 8 per cent and the per capita income is $2800. He said, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka maintain many commonalities and there are ample opportunities for DCCI distributes warm cloths to the distressed people DCCI Review January 31st 2012 entrepreneurs of both the countries to make joint ventures in tourism, food and food processing, Ayurbedi hotels, spices and jewelry sector. He stressed on FTA between these two countries which will accelerate more trade and investment. Asoka Hetiogoda invited DCCI to participate in the Expo 2012 to be held in March in Sri Lanka. DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA, Directors M. Bashir Ullah Bhuiyan, Mahabub Anam, Waqar Ahmad Choudhury, ASM Mohiuddin Monem, Khairul Majid Mahmud, Abul Hossain, Convenor Mukter Hossain Chowdhury and Secretary Mustafa Mohiuddin were present and they made interactions with the visiting delegation members. DCCI, under its CSR activities, distributed warm cloths to the coldstricken distressed people in different parts of the country. As an initiative of reducing sufferings of cold-stricken people, specially in the northern region of Bangladesh, DCCI handed over warm cloths to Rangpur Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Nilphamari Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Lalmonirhat Chamber of Commerce & Industry and Kurigram Chamber of Commerce & Industry for distribution those to the people of the respective areas. Besides, DCCI also handed over the same to Secretary General of Azad Muslim Welfare Complex Alhaj Altaf Hossain for distribution among the distressed people living in Dhaka. DCCI President Asif Ibrahim called upon all well- off people of the society to stand by the distressed across the country in the winter season. Kh. Shahidul Islam, Coordinating Director, DBI Standing Committee and former Vice President, DCCI, urged upon the entrepreneurs and executives of business organizations to have proper knowledge of human resource development issues to achieve long-term business success in the present-day competitive global market. He made the plea at the certificate awarding ceremony of a training course on “Human Resource On behalf of the participants, one representative Md. Muzahidul Islam, Deputy Manager, HR & Admin, Diganta TV, expressed great happiness in getting a lot of useful information and knowledge from the course which has expanded their mental horizon. They also thanked The contents of the course were: Introduction and Brief History of Human Resource Development (HRD), Modern HR Management DBI training course on human resource development DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (third from left) presenting warm cloths to President of Rangpur Chamber of Commerce & Industry Mosaddeq Hossain Bablu (third from right) for distributing among the cold-striken distressed people on 5 January. DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (second from right), Directors M Abu Horaira (left), Hossain A Sikder (second from left) former Director Alhaj Nasiruddin Khan (right) are also seen in the picture. Development (HRD)”, held January 14 -18. He said, HRD is the most important factor for organizational growth in any sort of organizations as HR has become a function of conscience keeper. DCCI Business Institute for giving such unique opportunity to get a lot of updated knowledge on an important subject for doing business. Executive Director, DBI Md. Hossain Ali thanked the participants for their positive comments and stressed that their learning will be effective only if they apply their acquired knowledge in their day-to-day activities. 5 Chamber News DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Functions, Management and Leadership, Human Resource Plan and Succession Planning, Job Analysis – Redundancy, Recruitment and Selection Policies, HR Management System, Strategic HRM, Motivation of HR, Performance Appraisal, Compensation & Benefits Packages, Staff Development, Case Studies/Examples, Industrial Relations and CBA, Managing Grievances and Conflicts and more. Tamanna Sultana, Assistant Secretary (Training) coordinated the session. Thirty one participants from different prominent organizations as well as individuals participated in the course. At the close, certificates were distributed among the participants by the chief guest. DCCI Director Kh. Shahidul Islam (second from left), DBI Executive Director Md. Hossain Ali (second from right), Additional Executive Director Ashish Kumar Paul (right), Assistant Secretary (Training) Tamanna Sultana (left) are seen with the participants of a training course on Human Resource Development (HRD)”on January 14 -18 DCCI condoles death of Samson H. Chowdhury Asif Ibrahim, President and the members of the Board of Directors of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) have expressed deep shock at the sudden demise of Samson H Chowdhury, Chairman, Square Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Bangladesh in Singapore (Inna Lillahe wa Inna Ilaihe Rajiun). Samson H Chowdhury led an exemplary life of hard work, dedication and honesty and built up one of the largest business conglomerates of Bangladesh. He was the President of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce & Industry (MCCI) in 1996-1997. He was also the Director of FBCCI. He was awarded “Business Executive of the Year” by American Chamber in Bangladesh in 1998 and “Best Entrepreneur of the Country for the year 2000 -2001” by the Daily Star and DHL Worldwide Express. The DCCI in the message said: “May the Almighty Allah grant the members of his family enough strength and courage to bear this irreparable loss.” The President and the Board members prayed for the eternal peace and salvation of the departed soul. DCCI President condoles death of Asif Tarek DCCI President Asif Ibrahim, members of the Board of Directors of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) and all staff of DCCI expressed deep shock and grief at the sad and sudden demise of Asif Tarek, son-in-law of Muhammad Faruk Khan, M.P., former Commerce Minister and presently Minister for Civil Aviation and Tourism at the age of 35 in Dhaka (Inna lillahe wa inna ilaihe rajiun). 6 DCCI President Asif Ibrahim prayed for the eternal peace and salvation of the departed soul and also prayed to the Almighty Allah to grant his family all strength and courage to bear this irreparable loss. National Economy DCCI Review January 31st 2012 National economy given a strong base despite global recession : PM Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has said her government has succeeded in reducing the price of rice and increasing the income and purchasing power of the people. She said people in the rural areas are getting jobs, per capita income has increased to US$828 from $660. The Prime Minister said this while she was addressing the nation on stateowned radio and television marking the completion of her Awami Leagueled alliance government's three years in office. Besides, she said, her government has increased the salary of government officials and employees, extended the retirement age of government services to 59 years from 57 years. Painting a rosy picture of national economy the Prime Minister claimed that the present government has been able to give the national economy a strong base despite global economic meltdown. She said investment has increased, production shot up while export earning rose to about US$ 7.5 billion. The overseas remittance has exceeded US$ 12 billion from US$ 9.2 billion. She added that about 0.45 million people, both male and female, were absorbed in the public sector only. In the last fiscal, the growth of gross domestic product (GDP) was 6.7 per cent while the target for the current fiscal has been set at 7.0 per cent. She said that because of sincere efforts and labour, the present government has added additional 2900 megawatt electricity to the national grind in the past three years. She said a massive plan was being implemented for the production and distribution of gas. As a result, production of gas increased by 350 mmcfd. On food situation, Hasina said it was one of her election pledges to ensure food security of the people by increasing agricultural production. At present, a record 14,76,115 tonnes of food grains are stocked in government godowns. People in the northern region known for Monga are now having two meals a day, she said, adding that InshaAllah, Bangladesh will be transformed into a food surplus country by 2013. Hasina said Bangladesh is now the top troops-sending country to the UN peacekeeping missions. On foreign policy, she said Bangladesh's position and role in establishing peace and harmony in the world including South Asia has been acclaimed by the United Nations. The government, she said, has signed economic and technical cooperation deals with China, exchanged letters to construct a bridge at Kazirtek and signed MoU relating to oil and gas. Fuel oil import pushes up overall payments by 23pc Bangladesh's overall import payments grew by nearly 23 per cent in the first five months of the current fiscal year (FY), mainly because of a high rise of import bills on account of fuel oil, officials have said. "The overall import payments increased significantly because of higher imports of petroleum products during the period under review," a senior official of the Bangladesh Bank (BB) said. Letters of credit (LCs) against imports worth US$ 14.95 billion were settled during July-November of FY '12 compared to those valued at $12.16 billion in the corresponding period last fiscal, according to the central bank statistics. The BB official expects the pressure on import payments to ease in the coming months as import orders have already recorded a negative growth. The opening of fresh LCs against imports, generally known as import orders, registered a negative growth of 2.09 per cent in July-November period of this fiscal compared to a positive one at 3.72 per cent in JulyOctober period in the same fiscal. "The declining trend in import orders has continued in the month of January largely because of lower imports of food grains," the central bank official said. A senior official of a leading private commercial bank (PCB) said short supply of the greenback has also contributed to lower import orders during the period under review. "We're now opening LCs against imports on a selective basis because of lower inflow of the US dollar to the market," the private banker said, adding that the declining trend of import orders may continue in the near future. The exchange rate of the US dollar against BDT rose to Tk 75.14 during the first five months of the current fiscal from Tk 74.15 on June 30 at the close of the last fiscal, the BB data showed. However, Bangladesh Taka (BDT) came under a strong pressure since December this year. The exchange rate stood at Taka 82.32 for one US dollar. This showed a heavy rate of depreciation of BDT during last few months. 7 National Economy The import of fuel oils increased by 92.44 per cent to $2.20 billion in the first five months of FY '12 from $1.15 billion in the same period of the FY '11, the central bank said. "The import of petroleum products may increase further in the coming months to meet the increasing demand for it for irrigation and oilbased power plants," the central bank official noted. Imports of intermediate goods like coal, scrap vessels, hard coke and clinker increased by 68.99 per cent to $1.29 billion during the period from $765.55 million in the corresponding period in the previous fiscal. The BB official also said higher import of scrap vessels also contributed to raising the import of intermediate goods sharply. The import of scrap vessels rose to $511.09 million during the period from $118.19 million in the corresponding period of the previous fiscal. "Furthermore, the imports of other essential items including industrial raw materials and capital machinery increased significantly during the period to meet the domestic demand," the central banker added. He also said fresh opening of import LCs for capital machinery decreased to a marked extent during the period under review as placement of import orders for different types of capital machinery, including rental power plants, declined recently. The import orders for capital machinery declined by nearly 38 per cent to $870.44 million during the period from $1.40 billion in the corresponding period of the pervious fiscal. 8 However, actual import of capital machinery-industrial equipment used for production-rose by 32.79 per cent to $ 1.03 billion during the period against $778.20 million in the corresponding period of FY '11. This DCCI Review January 31st 2012 reflected the arrival of imported capital machinery against orders placed earlier. Food grain imports fell during the period under review. The country has built enough stocks for the main staple rice after a bumper Boro crop yield in May this year, another central banker said, adding that such a declining trend about import of food grain may continue in the coming months. Import of food grain such as rice witnessed a negative growth of 28.05 per cent to $476.87 million in the first five months in the FY '12 over the same period last fiscal. Industrial raw material imports increased by 19.56 per cent to $ 5.58 billion during the period under review from $4.672 billion of the corresponding period in the pervious fiscal. During the period, the import of machinery for miscellaneous industries witnessed an 18.85 per cent growth to $1.25 billion compared to that of $1.05 billion in the same period the previous fiscal. Economists see challenging year ahead Economists see a very challenging year ahead as the government will have to confront some internal and external economic risks such as rising inflation, slow export and plummeting remittance growth. The government should concentrate on controlling spiraling commodity price and strengthening the social safety net programme, they said, adding that side by side it has to match the monetary policy with revenue and import policies, expedite ADP implementation, closely observe international economic trend and cut down its unnecessary expenditures. Talking to BSS, economist Dr. Qazi Kholiquzzaman Ahmad has suggested the government to attach priority to controlling commodity price as it is an important election pledge of the present government. "For managing the commodity prices, the government must strengthen the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh (TCB). Monetary policy must be adjusted with other policies such as import and revenue to keep the market stable," he added. He said the government should carefully handle the abrupt price hike of some commodities such as edible oil. Defending the Bangladesh Bank's (BB) contractionary monetary policy, he said steps should be taken to match other policies such as revenue and import with it to keep the commodity market stable. He said the government should observe global economic trend for taking preparation to face any possible economic risks. Debt crisis in Europe will have a negative impact on Bangladesh exports, he added. To reduce borrowing from the banking system, he said the government should expedite implementation of foreignaided projects and side by side the government should cut down its expenditure on less-priority projects. "The government should carefully handle imports, discourage imports of luxurious goods," added. Economist Abul Barakat said restoring stability in the capital market is a challenge for the government. "The government must take steps to stabilize the capital market in the interest of the economy," he added. He said the government must cut down borrowing from the banking system to ensure credit flow to industries, service sector and trade that will contribute to the GDP growth. He said depreciation of taka against dollar will push the import costs up that will have a negative impact on the economy. "The government should carefully handle this issue," he added. National Economy Barakat said war crimes trial apparently has no direct link with the economy but indirectly, it has an impact, he said, adding that with the progress of the trial, 'economy of fundamentalism' would become more active that would have to be carefully monitored. "All macro-economic indicators are now under pressure," export has remained stalled while depreciation of taka against dollar has pushed the import cost up leaving the balance of payment (BoP) in the negative territory," said Dr. Zaid Bakht, research director of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Research (BIDS). BB announces new monetary policy, projects lower growth Bangladesh Bank has unveiled a new monetary policy with a special focus on restraining credit flow to public sector and discouraging unproductive loans to rein in the soaring inflation. The central bank will peruse a relatively tightened monetary growth path in order to curb inflationary and external sector pressures ensuring adequate private sector credit to stimulate inclusive growth. However, the central bank now projects lower growth (gross domestic product) from the projected 7 percent and expects it will be in between 6.5 to 7 percent. Earlier, the government had forecast a 7 percent GDP growth for the current fiscal year, assuming stable domestic and global economic conditions. BB governor Dr. Atiur Rahman announced the new monetary policy at a press conference at the central bank's conference room. Senior consultant and adviser to BB governor M Allah Malik Kazemi, senior economic adviser to governor Dr. Hasan Zaman, deputy governors DCCI Review January 31st 2012 M Abul Kashem, Abu Hena M Razee Hasan, SK Sur Chowdhury and Nazneen Sultana were present. "This monetary policy is appropriate under the present circumstances-if the government cuts borrowing from the banking sector, we'll be able to increase credit flow to private sector," Dr. Atiur Rahman said announcing its half-yearly monetary policy (JanuaryJune) of the current 2011-12 financial year. Bangladesh Bank will ensure liquidity support for banks, so that productive credit growth is not crowded out. "It'll remain a key area of focus for the central bank," the policy statement said. The central bank has set a target of 16 percent private sector credit growth for the January-June period, which, the bank thinks, is consistent with the projected GDP growth target and with the credit growth of other countries in the region. It was 18 percent in the first half of the current fiscal year but the central bank thinks the new private sector credit growth is good. "Credit supply to private sector will get easier if government's bank borrowing can be kept under tolerable limit," Atiur said while reading out the new monetary policy statement. The private sector credit growth was 19.33 percent in November 2011, which was 28 percent in the last fiscal year. The monetary policy statement said the interest rate regime will remain liberal. The BB will focus more on monitoring interest rate spreads so that they remain below 5 percent except for SME lending (as the cost of SME operations are higher) and the consumer lending, the statement said. The governor observed that the recent global economic condition has significantly slowed down Bangla- desh's export. The remittance inflow may also slow down. "Weak aid inflows, slowing imports and moderating credit growth will limit the aggregate demand." Dr. Atiur said containing inflation is the biggest challenge for the economy right now and the bank wants to see it within single digit, which has been tenaciously staying at double digit for the last nine months. "The favourable steps will help contain the rising inflation and maintain the desired inclusive growth," he said. The inflation, averaging 10.7 percent in December 2011, is higher than the 7.5 percent average projected in the 2011-2012 budge. New monetary policy 'not that much realistic': Experts Economists and business leaders have termed the recently-announced monetary policy was not that much realistic and said it would be difficult to bring down inflation below single digit and curb government bank borrowing with it. They also said the central bank's stance to slash credit flow to private sector would hurt investment which will subsequently shrink employment opportunities and scale down growth. The central bank has set a target to bring private sector credit growth to 16 percent for the January-June period from previous 18 percent. The credit growth in private sector was 18 percent in December, 2011 while 25.8 percent in the last fiscal year. The experts also said the government expenditure in the remaining months of the current fiscal would scale up further due to poor ADP implementation rate in the first six months of the current fiscal. The annual development programme (ADP) implementation was Tk 12,703 9 National Economy crore or 28 percent of the total outlay during the six-month period, according to Implementation Monitoring and Evaluation Division (IMED) statistics. Former Finance Adviser to the caretaker government Dr. Md. AB Mirza Azizul Islam said, "Considering the ground realities, I don't find this monetary policy that much realistic." Replying to a question, he expressed doubt on how the central bank will play its role in curbing credit flow to public sector. "Because, the central bank doesn't have the authority to say no if the government wants to borrow. Even it can't give such an order to commercial banks." Considering the realities, the renowned economist also expressed doubt over the success of the central bank's plan to bring down the soaring inflation below single digit with the monetary policy. Mirza Aziz, however, does not see any major wrong with slashing credit growth to private sector. "It's nominally downsized." Research Director of Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) Dr. Zaid Bakht said, "I'm not hopeful about bringing down the rising inflation to 9 with this monetary policy." On curbing credit flow to public sector, Zaid Bakht said he does not see any possibility of cutting government borrowing from the banking sector. Project-aid component in ADP to be downsized The project-aid component in the annual development programme (ADP) of the current fiscal is likely to be slashed by Tk 3685 crore due to poor implementation of different foreign-aided development projects. 10 The economic relations division (ERD) is learnt to have decided to downsize the project aid to Tk 15,000 crore from original allocation of Tk DCCI Review January 31st 2012 18,685 crore for the fiscal 2011-12, sources said in Dhaka. "We've decided to cut the external resources due mainly to the poor implementation of foreign-aided projects by different ministries," an ERD official said, adding, "The proposal has already been sent to the planning ministry". ERD sources said most of the ministries are reluctant to implement the foreign-aided projects. "One of the prime reasons is their inefficiency and poor implementation capacity," the ERD official added. The government has allocated Tk 46,000 crore for the ADP in the current fiscal and included a total of 1,039 projects. Of Tk 46, 000 crore, the government has decided to contribute Tk 27,315 crore or 59 percent while the remaining 18, 685 crore or 41 percent have been expected to come from external sources. During the last five months (JulyNovember) of the current fiscal year, progress of the overall implementation of ADP reached 20 percent only, sources said. The 54 government ministries and divisions spent Tk 93.14 billion, 20 per cent of Tk 460 billion ADP outlay, during July- November period of the fiscal year, according to the Planning Commission (PC). Of the total outlay during the period, the ministries and divisions used 25 percent of the government component of the ADB allocation and 13 percent of the foreign component, it said. Among the ministries and divisions, the Power Division, Local Government and Primary and Mass Education Ministry preformed better as the Power Division spent the highest 35 percent (both the government and foreign) of the allocation followed by 30 percent by Local Government and 26 percent by Primary and Mass Education Ministry. Bangladesh goes down 1 step in JBIC ranking in investment Bangladesh ranked 16th in the JBIC report 2011 slipping one step in terms of investment potential, but still remains a promising destination for investment. Data show that Bangladesh's rank was 15th in 2010 showing a big jump from 2007 (34th). Bangladesh's position was 24th in 2008 and 28th in 2009. Industries Minister Dilip Barua received a copy of the JBIC (Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC). The title of the report is Overseas Business Operations by Japanese Manufacturing Companies and Outlook for Japanese Foreign Direct Investment (23rd annual survey). Inexpensive source of labour, future growth potential of local market, inexpensive raw materials, profitability of local market, tax insensitive for investment, stable policies to attract foreign investment, scope of risk diversification to other countries, base of export to Japan and concentration of industries have been identified as reasons for choosing Bangladesh as a promising destination, the report said. China was on top of the list followed by India (2nd), Thailand, Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, the USA, Malaysia, Taiwan, Korea, Mexico, Singapore, the Philippines, Turkey and Australia. Cambodia, Myanmar and Great Britain are behind Bangladesh in the ranking, the report said. The report also identified some disadvantages for investment in Bangladesh. These are difficulties in procuring management-level staff, underdeveloped legal system, unclear execution of legal system, underdeveloped infrastructure, complicated National Economy or unclear procedures for investment permission, intense competition with other companies and lack of information on the country. Hasina seeks Chinese investment Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has sought massive Chinese investment, especially in textiles, agro-processing, energy and power, pharmaceuticals, communications and infrastructure development to reduce the existing trade gap. She made the request when Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh Zhang Xianyi paid a farewell call on her at her office. After the meeting, PM's Press Secretary Abul Kalam Azad briefed reporters. He said Sheikh Hasina thanked China for its continued assistance and support for various key development projects in power, agriculture, infrastructure and telecommunications sectors in Bangladesh. She also mentioned that both the countries may work together sincerely to make Bangladesh-China-Mynmar road link or Kunming initiative a success. The Prime Minister expressed satisfaction over the steady growth of trade volume as it is heavily tilted towards China and hoped that China will remain responsive to some of the concerns to reduce the huge trade imbalance to some extent. In response, the Chinese envoy praised the pragmatic leadership of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in running a democratic government as well as presenting a peace model in the UN, and negotiating the interests of the countries being affected by global climate change. Xianyi presented a book written by him on Bangladesh -China relations to DCCI Review January 31st 2012 the Prime Minister. He also paid respect to Father of the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and recalled his visit to China in 1973. Ambassador at-large M Ziauddin, Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister Sheikh M Wahid Uz Zaman, PMO Secretary Molla Waheeduzzaman were present. Investment proposals witness 56.62pc growth in 2011 Bangladesh's investment proposals registered with the Board of Investment (BoI) in 2011 (calendar year) witnessed a buoyant growth of 56.62 percent compared to 2010, with the proposed investment of Tk 1,03,107.50 crore. Out of this, the country's local investment proposal increased by 24.75 percent in 2011 compared to 2010 with a proposed investment of Tk 54,606.76 crore, according to figures revealed by the Board of Investment (BoI). The local investment proposals were listed against 1,755 industrial units. A total of 1,974 industrial units had been registered during the period, which would generate more than five lakh jobs, the data showed. The 100 percent foreign and joint venture investment proposals listed with the BoI experienced an eye-catching growth of 119.83 percent with proposed investment of Tk 48,500.74 crore against 219 industrial units. The BoI data revealed that during the October-December period, proposals of some 525 industrial units were registered with the BoI with a proposed investment of Tk 28,393.51 crore, which is, however, Tk 289.72 crore higher than the July-September period. During the three-month period till some 461 local December, investment proposals were registered with the BoI with a proposed investment of Tk 16,529.126 crore while 64 hundred percent foreign and joint venture investment proposals were enlisted with the Board with a proposed amount of Tk 11,864.38 crore. Engineering, services and textile sectors were leading the track with a good rise while other sectors like chemical and agriculture witnessed a moderate growth. Experts find imported coal-based power plants imprudent Experts and a few serving and former energy sector officials have described the government decision to generate electricity with imported coal and keep the substantial local coal reserves unutilised a 'political' one. They felt that the decision would exact a heavy toll on the economy. Without having the country's balance of payments (BoP) situation improved, the operation of power plants dependent on imported coal might prove difficult, financially, they said. Besides, importing a significant quantity of coal to generate electricity while keeping the local coal underground is a ridiculous decision, they added. Officials said the government has already initiated steps to generate several thousand megawatts of electricity within the next four years based on imported coal, without building necessary infrastructure in railways, waterways, roads and ports to carry the huge quantity of coal to be required for those plants. The state-owned Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB) on December 20, 2011 inked deals to build three coal-fired power plants to generate a total of 1,087.34 mw of electricity with imported coal. A consortium of local Orion Group and 11 National Economy Chinese Long King was awarded all the three coal-fired power plant projects to initiate electricity generation by 2014. The BPDB has also floated international tenders recently to build six more coal-fired power plants to generate up to 2,775 mw of electricity, on the basis of imported coal in different areas across the country, especially in Chittagong, Dhaka and Barisal areas. If all the coal-fired power plants are awarded, the country would be required to import around 12 million tonnes of coal worth US$ 1.92 billion annually to generate electricity from these new plants, said a senior Petrobangla official. He said the country will have to import coal at a cost around $160 per tonne, as per the current coal price in the international market. Besides, the government has a plan to build more coal-fired power plants, as it has a target to generate a total of 15,000 mw of electricity from the coal-fired power plants by 2030. "Generating electricity with imported coal, keeping the local coal reserves unutilised is not a right decision," said former special assistant to chief adviser of the caretaker government on energy issues Professor M Tamim. Bangladesh has potential to be second China in 10-15 years: US envoy US Ambassador in Bangladesh Dan W Mozena has said Bangladesh has huge potential in different sectors and it will be emerged as second China in the world within 10 to 15 years. 12 Expressing his satisfaction over remarkable progress and prosperity of Bangladesh to become middleincome country, the US ambassador said that Bangladesh is now exporting garments, medicine, finish goods, ships, and it has huge potential to DCCI Review January 31st 2012 keep contribution in the agriculture and ICT sector particularly in animation. The US envoy said it is not an unrealistic dream to see Bangladesh as the second China in the world when it would emerge within 10 to 15 years turning into a golden country. Terming main challenges like corruption, political instability, power shortage and poor road infrastructures for achieving the progress Mozena said it would also face the challenge of investment in the country. Ambassador W Mozena pointed out this at a press conference before inaugurating a 3-day 'US Week-2012' held at Chittagong district sports auditorium of MA Aziz Stadium in Chittagong. Mozena said US would invest at least 100 crore US dollars in the next five years to help Bangladesh improve the living standard of its citizens, most especially the children. "America's partnership with Bangladesh has so many fields including health of pregnant women and mothers of children; health of newborns and older children; fighting TB and HIV/AIDS," he added. The US ambassador termed the theme of this year's America Week, "Moving Forward Together," the guiding principle of America's partnership with Bangladesh. "This partnership is strong and getting stronger," he added. He said America's partnership with Bangladesh is multifaceted in the areas of improving food security through increased agricultural production, adapting to the effects of climate change; strengthening the emerging democratic institutions, fostering improved civil-military relations; and building capacity to defend the nation's maritime and land borders. The US ambassador called upon all Bangladeshis including all political opinion not to stress their personal interest and advised them to give focus on Bangladesh interest. Chittagong City Mayor M Manzur Alam, high officials of US embassy in Dhaka and USAID among others attended the press conference. NRBs seek separate investment board Non-resident Bangladeshis (NRBs) have suggested the government for setting up a separate investment board, which will be offering them exclusive and necessary supports to propel their investment in Bangladesh. The suggestion came at a roundtable in Dhaka on the contribution of NRBs to the development of the country, organised by the Centre for Nonresident Bangladeshis. Bangladeshis living abroad including in USA, UK, Canada, UAE and Saudi Arabia participated in the discussion. Some senior politicians, economists, bankers, government officials, businessmen, donor representative and media people also participated in the discussions to recommend the government the effective ways of ensuring the best use of remittance from expatriate Bangladeshis. The participants, while recommending the formation of a separate investment board, advised the government to strengthen the Bangladeshi missions abroad with skilled manpower so that the missions can offer proper support to the potential foreign investors including NRBs to invest more in Bangladesh. National Economy Expatriates' Welfare and Overseas Employment Secretary Zafar Ahmed Khan, Election Commissioner Sohul Hossain, former advisor of the caretaker government and executive director of Campaign for Popular Education (CAMPE) Rasheda K Chowdhury, economist Ibrahim Khaled, former minister Sheikh Shahidul Islam, editor of the Daily Manabzamin Matiur Rahman Chowdhury, World Bank representative Jayeed Hossain, Standard Bank Chairman Kazi Akramuddin Ahmed, Saudi Arabia Correspondent of NRB Kaptan Hossain, Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DCCI) President Asif Ibrahim and Tower Hamlets speaker Mizan Chaudhury participated in discussion. Centre for NRB Chairperson M S Sekil Chowdhury moderated the roundtable. BB suggests govt to look for alternatives to bank borrowing Bangladesh Bank has suggested the government to look for alternatives to bank borrowing on priority basis to avert its adverse impacts on the economy and cited the example of banking system of European countries in this regard. The central bank in its latest working paper titled 'Monetary Policy of Bangladesh Bank and Prevailing Inflation' also laid emphasis on revitalisation of government's foreign loan and grant. "The credit availability in the private sector has not been hampered yet following the sudden high growth of government's borrowing from the banking sector," the report said. It, however, warned that if the government borrowing from the banking system continues, it will raise the risk. The report said a strong coordination in monetary policy with the strategy of DCCI Review January 31st 2012 government expenditure financing is important to mange inflation and protect the capability of the balance of payment (BoP) in the foreign sector. Central Bank governor Dr. Atiur Rahman presented the report at a meeting of the parliamentary standing committee on finance ministry where Finance Minister AMA Muhith, committee chairman AHM Mostafa Kamal and the country's renowned economists were present. The report also said the primary dealer banks (banks that are obliged to purchase government bonds and bills) have been weighed down with excessive bonds and facing liquidity risk due to the absence of an active secondary market for government bills and bonds. Though the inflation is high, the central bank said, the growth-related some macroeconomic indicators export, foreign remittance inflow and import of production machineries are consistent with the projected 7 percent GDP growth. The remittance inflow set a record in December last with the country receiving over $1.1 billion despite the global economic crisis, according to Bangladesh Bank data. It is predicted that the goal of achieving 7 percent GDP growth would not remain far away from the projected target at the end of the fiscal year, the report said. Steel makers concerned over taka depreciation Steel makers at a meeting with Industries Minister Dilip Barua have voiced grave concern over the continuous depreciation of the local currency against the US dollar. They told the minister that they incur a loss of Tk 14,000 alone in manufacturing each metric tonne of MS (mild steel) rod while another Tk 2,000 for enhanced electricity tariff. "The production cost of steel rod is going beyond our affordability," said Sheikh Masudul Alam Masud, President of Bangladesh Auto Rerolling and Steel Mills Association. At present, each tonne of 60-grade MS rod is selling at Tk 67,000-68,000 and 40-grade at Tk 60,000-62,000. The steel millers said this price may go up any time. The steel makers also said the withdrawal of upper cap on bank interest has put them into a big dilemma as most of banks do not find interest in issuing project financing loan. The meeting between the steel manufacturers and Industries Minister took place at a time when the rate of US dollar was being traded at Tk 84 against Tk 70 last year. The country has about 300 re-rolling and steel mills with an annual production capacity of about 3 million tonnes. Most of these mills depend on imported scrap and imported abandoned ships for their raw materials. After the increase in the US dollar price, the steel manufacturers have to count additional expense on importing raw materials. Urging for immediate steps to address the problems, the steel millers said if the government fails to contain the depreciation of the local currency and control power tariff, the increased production cost will finally push up the expense of the contractors who mainly execute the government's annual development programme (ADP). "If the contractors refrain from executing the ADP on an account of increased cost, the total development works will get stuck up," said Abul 13 National Economy Qassem Majumder, secretary general of the Auto Re-rolling and Steel Mills Association. The association leaders also referred to some anomalies prevailing in the duty structures of some of their raw materials. Responding to the demands, Dilip Barua urged the steel manufacturers not to increase the prices of the steel products as these are the basic materials for construction works. He also said the government's policy is to reduce duties on raw materials that are used in the import-substitute industries. Central bank passing through transitional period: governor Bangladesh Bank governor Dr. Atiur Rahman has said the central bank is now passing through a transitional period and he sought coordinated efforts from all, especially from the top executives, to have success in its every step. "I've to face multifaceted challenges every moment due to current economic situation of the country as well as continuous changing global economic order. Achieving success is difficult without coordinated efforts," he said. The governor was speaking at the opening session of a two-day strategic planning workshop of the central bank, with the theme 'Strengthening Leadership', at the BRAC Centre for Development Management in Savar. 14 Deputy governor Abul Qasem, executive director M Ahsan Ullah, senior advisor M Allah Malik Kazemi, senior economic advisor Hasan Zaman, Bangladesh Krishi Bank chairman and former deputy governor of Bangladesh Bank Khondkar Ibrahim Khaled, officials of the rank of general manager, and bank DCCI Review January 31st 2012 supervision expert from IMF, Glenn Tasky, were present in the workshop. Atiur mentioned that three deputy governors of the central bank went into retirement on the same day (December 29 last) and hoped to get three new deputy governors soon to speed up the central bank activities. Emphasising the role of leaders in directing the organisation towards its ultimate goal, he iterated the need for adequate communication skills in order to disseminate the complex economic information to the stakeholders. The governor expressed his optimism that the high officials of the central bank will take the leadership to lead the economy for the betterment of the nation. The workshop has been reviewing the status of achievements of the strategies and action plans adopted in the last workshop in 2010. The functions of Bangladesh Bank were divided into 10 different groups for making presentations on the achievements and challenges of their related departments. The workshop was coordinated by Managing Director of Insights and Ideas Jahangir Kabir. Treasury Chalan to go online in June Bangladesh Bank (BB) is working on introducing online Treasury Chalan Submission and Verification System in June this year. A senior BB official told that they are implementing a central bank strengthening project with assistance from the World Bank (WB), under which an e-payment gateway will also be introduced in six months time. Finance Division of the Ministry of Finance and Access to Information (A2I) Programme of Prime Minister's Office (PMO) are also working to implement the programme to solve the problem related to the existing manual procedure of submitting the Chalan. "The e-payment gateway will facilitate all types of online payment including the payments through the Treasury Chalan," BB Executive Director M. Abdul Hamid said. People require paying taxes or fees to the Treasury through Chalan (a prescribed form) for getting various services from the government. The current process of submitting the Chalan is seen cumbersome, time consuming and prone to malpractices. There are also allegations that in many cases people find the fees they paid were not actually paid to the Treasury accordingly. The central bank official said the BB and some select branches of Sonali Bank receive Chalan from people. On average, around 15,000 Chalans are received every day for payments to the national exchequer. Among those, the BB's headquarters in the capital alone receives 5,000 Chalans daily for which a large number of staff remains busy all day. People also spend hours in the queue only to submit the Chalans manually. Hamid said the automation of Chalan will bring an end to the workload on bankers and hassles to people when the e-payment gateway will offer online payments for utility bills, salary, allowances and the bill for public procurement. Another BB official said people can submit Chalan and verified their payment online 24 hours and seven days a week. The service may also be SMS-based so people can avail it using their mobile phone. SAARC News DCCI Review January 31st 2012 PM stresses action by SAARC nations to cope with problems Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has underscored the need for concerted action by SAARC countries to cope with the problems caused due to world economic crisis as well as the own problems of climate change and environmental degradation. She expressed the view while addressing the inaugural session of the fifth meeting of SAARC finance ministers in Dhaka. Sheikh Hasina said that regional economies were facing strain due to current crisis in Northern America and Europe, strong global inflationary pressure and volatility in foreign exchange rates. "To overcome these crises, bilateral coordination to facilitate regional action may have to be undertaken wherever necessary," she added. Chaired by Finance Minister AMA Muhith, the inaugural function was also addressed by Bhutanese Finance Minister Lyonpo Wangdi Norbu. Finance Division Secretary Dr. Mohammad Tareque gave the welcome address. The PM said that more than a quarter century ago, the SAARC was launched "on our belief in togetherness" and on the premises of mutual benefit and shared prosperity. "Today in the SAARC, we see the potential of South Asia graduating from just neighbours to a family of nations based on a set of values, common aspirations and initiatives." She also said that increasing interests of outside actors in the SAARC also demonstrate the potential that the region possesses. "However, it is also a fact that the realisation of a South Asian Economic Union and the eventual instilling of a sense of South Asian-ness in our thinking, approaches and actions, remains still a lofty goal." Hasina said that the South Asian countries no doubt have handled the global financial crisis quite successfully. "But, it has been done at a cost. The fiscal space has now become very limited. Expansionary economic policy is difficult to sustain for long, and levels of public debt have also risen significantly." She said that the current crisis in Northern America and Europe was putting serious strains on the region's economies. Hasina said that the intergovernmental expert group that the finance ministers established had already looked at the costs and benefits of integration. They have considered facilitation of trade as well as capital market development. The SAARC finance ministers also deliberated to make the South Asian Development Fund operational, she said. The PM expressed her satisfaction that the South Asian Regional Standard Organisation (SARSO) had already been established with its office located in Dhaka. Hasina said the last SAARC summit in the Maldives had decided on greater flow of financial capital and intraregional long-term investment. "We are currently dealing with liberalisation in trade and services." India urges traders not to do business in Chinese city The Indian embassy in Beijing has urged its nationals not to do business in the eastern Chinese city of Yiwu after reports that two Indians there were "mistreated" over allegedly unpaid bills. The incident triggered an official complaint from India after a diplomat called S. Balachandran was manhandled during a court case in Yiwu over the weekend in which he was trying to secure the release of the two traders. "Indian traders and businessmen are hereby cautioned not to do business with Yiwu in Zhejiang province," the embassy said in a statement on its website. "They should be aware that when there are trade disputes with Yiwu, the Indian businessmen/traders can be illegally held under detention and mistreated by Chinese businessmen there. "Based on experience, there is no guarantee that legal remedies will be readily available. Furthermore, in case of disputes arising, experience suggests that there is inadequate protection for safety of persons." Yiwu is home to the world's largest wholesale market for consumer goods. An Indian government official, who declined to be named, told AFP Monday the foreign ministry had summoned Zhang Yue, Beijing's deputy chief of mission in New Delhi, to complain about the courtroom assault. 15 SAARC News Manmohan worried about budget deficit India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said in his New Year’s message to the nation that controlling the government’s budget deficit was a priority for 2012 to avert another crisis. In a lengthy address from the beleaguered premier, whose cabinet has suffered from corruption scandals and policy setbacks, Singh laid out his vision for the next 12 months. “I am concerned about fiscal stability in the future because our fiscal deficit has worsened in the past three years,” Singh said in a statement. After heavy borrowings over the last three years to fund a stimulus package to counter the effects of the 2008 global financial crisis, he accepted the budget now needed to be rebalanced with new taxes and cuts to subsidies. “We have run out of fiscal space and must once again begin the process of fiscal consolidation,” he said. Recalling the country’s financial crisis in the 1990s, he added: “This is important to ensure that our growth process is not jeopardized and, equally important, our national sovereignty and self respect are not endangered.” He said the government “must ensure that the country does not go down that road once again”, referring to the 1991 bailout of the country by the International Monetary Fund. 16 The Indian economy has hit headwinds in the last six months, with high inflation coupled with sharply lower growth forecast to be 7.0 percent by economists for this financial year-low by recent standards. The rupee has also fallen sharply this year and is at record lows against the dollar. DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Singh also stressed the importance of the expensive task of modernizing India’s defense forces, something he described as “my most important task as prime minister. “India’s economic and energy security require this,” he said. India says it is continuing to buy oil from Iran Energy-hungry India has said it is continuing to buy oil from Iran, despite an intensifying US campaign to smother Tehran's vital oil exports until it abandons its nuclear programme. "We have accepted sanctions which were made by the United Nations. Other sanctions do not apply to individual countries," Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai told a news conference. "We continue to buy oil from Iran." Iran is India's second-largest oil supplier after Saudi Arabia, providing around 12 percent of the fast-growing country's oil needs at an annual cost of around $12 billion. Washington is spearheading a campaign to squeeze Iranian oil exports, and President Barack Obama recently signed a bill allowing penalties on foreign banks who settle oil import costs with Iran's central bank. The law provides waivers to firms in countries that significantly reduce crude supplies from Iran. Under Washington's measures, foreign firms must choose between doing business with the Islamic republic or the United States. Mathai said India would not seek a waiver from the United States. Japan said it would cut imports but China has refused to bow to US pressure. The Indian foreign secretary's statements came after a high-level government delegation departed for Tehran to work out an alternative mode of payment for oil, a senior finance ministry told AFP, asking not to be named. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar told reporters the delegation would "work out what (could be done) in terms of the new sanctions under section 1245 of the US Act". New Delhi at present pays Iran $1 billion every month through Turkey. India fears Turkey may come under pressure to halt the conduit with the fresh US round of sanctions against Iran. The European Union is slated to announce tough measures of its own soon. Iran, which insists its nuclear programme is for exclusively peaceful purposes, has repeatedly said it will not abandon uranium enrichment despite four rounds of UN Security Council sanctions demanding it desist. S Lanka won't draw balance of $2.6b IMF loan Sri Lanka, which is locked in a row with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) over its exchange rate policy, will not draw the remaining $800 million of a $2.6 billion loan from the global lender due to the high interest rate, the governor of the central bank said. The island-nation has already received $1.8 billion of the loan in seven tranches since July 2009, but the IMF has withheld the eighth payment since September after the central bank failed to allow flexibility in the rupee exchange rate. "If we do not draw any further money we will have to pay only a 1.1 per cent interest rate for the entire loan. But otherwise for the entire loan of $2.6 billion, we will have to pay 3.1 per cent," Central bank Governor Ajith Nivard Cabraal told Reuters in an interview. SAARC News "With the US Federal Reserve saying that they are going to hold rates until 2014, which are almost zero, that puts a lot of pressure on someone borrowing at 3 per cent. That is why we thought it is better for us to not to take any money." Given the central bank's failure to allow flexible exchange rate, markets had been expecting a 'make or break' decision either from the IMF or central bank on the loan, which was extended by another year with a waiver in 2011. Sources close to the IMF have told Reuters that a flexible exchange rate would be the key to move forward with the loan. The loan programme and the end of a 25-year civil war in May 2009 have helped revive foreign investor confidence in the $59 billion economy. The central bank has spent more than $1.07 billion keeping the exchange rate steady since a 3.0 per cent devaluation on Nov. 21, after spending a net $1.61 billion from JulyOctober to keep depreciation at bay. That has cost it a third of its record reserve total of $8.1 billion held at end-July. The IMF loan was meant purely to boost the country's reserves, and central bank officials say there will not be any fiscal adjustments required due to the decision. Sri Lanka's reserves were at $6.0 billion by end-2011. An IMF mission is in talks with Sri Lankan authorities to assess the country's economic performance under the loan. "I can tell you, in all the meetings, there was not even one discussion took place on that," Cabraal told, referring to the exchange rate policy. DCCI Review January 31st 2012 The central bank has refused to stop defending the currency, arguing it has the reserves to pay for it in anticipation of inflows in the first quarter that will stem depreciation pressure. Sri Lanka's ability to meet fiscal and reform targets spelled out under the loan programme and its post-war economic performance have been key gauges for global credit rating agencies, and economists expect any negative comments from the IMF could have an adverse impact on the country's borrowing costs. Sri Lanka's IMF country representative Koshy Mathai said it was up to Colombo to decide if it wanted to draw the remaining money under the programme. "We are happy to be involved in whatever way the Sri Lankan government and central bank find most useful," Mathai told Reuters. Pak exports up by 3.9 % to $ 11.24b in six months Pakistan’s exports during JulyDecember 2011-12 improved by 3.94 percent to $ 11.241 billion, compared to $ 10.815 billion in the same period last year. According to Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), imports during July-December 2011-12 stood at $ 22.713 billion as compare to $ 19.102 billion during the same period of the year 2010-11, registering a 18.9 percent growth. During December 2011 exports were valued at $ 1.854 billion which was 11.5% per cent lower than $ 2.094 billion during December 2010. Imports during December 2011 were valued at $ 4.261 billion, registering a growth of 13.6 per cent over the level of imports valued at $ 3.751 billion in December 2010. Leather garments contribute $ 404m Export of Pakistani leather garments has witnessed increase and reached US $ 404 million in 2010-11 as compared to US$ 344 million in 200910. Trade Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP) and Export Development Fund took numerous initiatives which are now bearing fruit as the sector has been showing growth and contributing foreign exchange to national kitty, official sources said in Islamabad. Exports of leather (tanned) increased by 44.29 percent, exports of leather garments went up by 18.53 percent and leather gloves by 18.62 percent last year, the sources said and added among the footwear products, exports of leather footwear increased by 5.96 percent during the period. The sources said TDAP has arranged numerous exhibitions to promote the sector and ensure meaningful participation of national and international buyers and sellers. The Authority also participated in 12 exhibitions of textiles products including ready-made garments in 2011. Furthermore, TDAP intends to participate in 12 exhibitions to be held in Africa and China in the coming months. The sources said TDAP also organized six trade delegations during last year to visit different countries including Tajikistan, China, Malaysia and Indonesia to promote leather garments. Moreover, an amount of Rs. 846.031 million has been released during last nine years to the leather sector from the Export Development Fund. 17 SAARC News Afghanistan to face major financial challenges Nepal’s trade volume drops by 20-30 per cent Presenting next year's budget to the House of Representatives, Afghan Minister of Finance Hazrat Omer Zakhilwal said that as the Afghans are taking over responsibilities, it will cause a major challenge for Afghan government beyond 2014. “The quantity of consignments from different customs points has reduced significantly,” said director general of the Department of Customs Rana Bahadur Shrestha at a programme organised in Katmandu by Nepal China Chamber of Commerce and Industry. Afghanistan will face major financial challenges after 2014, the Afghan Minister of Finance said while speaking before the Afghan House of Representatives. He emphasized that the Afghan government will not have enough financial resources to carry on without international support. "With all these achievements, we will face some major challenges," Mr Zakhiwal said. "The transition process can give Afghans more responsibility but it will cause major financial challenges." The total budget for next year is estimated Afs 224.5 billions. The normal annual budget for Afghanistan will be Afs134.3 billion. Nearly 77.3 billion Afs will be earned through Afghan government incomes and more than 56.9 billion Afs will be provided by international community. The development budget of the country is estimated 9.2 billion Afs. The total revenues from the national resources are estimated 87.9 billion Afs for the next solar year. The total cut for the main budget will be 12.5 billion Afs, Zakhilwal added. Lack of professional personnel is another challenge cited by the finance ministry. 18 DCCI Review January 31st 2012 His comment comes as The US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta urged the international community to help pay for strong Afghan security troops despite worldwide economic pressure. Overall export and import of Nepal declined by 20 per cent to 30 per cent of late but revenue from customs remained stable due to the gain in exchange rate. “The encouraging revenue mobilisation is not due to an expansion of trade but due to a stronger dollar,” claimed president of Nepal China Chamber of Commerce and Industry Rajesh Kaji Shrestha. According to the department, there has been a decline in opening Letter of Credit (LC) due to a volatile US dollar. It has also asked Nepal Rastra Bank to provide the trend of LCs for the last one month to get a clear picture of the export-import trend and forecast customs collections. Import volume from different customs points also declined because most importers are in a ‘wait and watch’ mode due to the fluctuation in the value of the US dollar, the department claimed, adding that it is expected that imports will rise once the value of the dollar remains stable. Customs data revealed that the import of petroleum products has gone down in the last two months and the import of vehicles has also plunged. The government is mulling on reducing import tariffs on vehicles, Shrestha, said, adding that this could materialise if there is no change in government till the next budget. Domestic transportation cost Maldives up Maldivian Department of National Planning (DNP) statistics has shown that the price of domestic air transportation had increased by 18%. DNP inflation records showed that the increase in the price of domestic flights within the last 12 months (December 2010- December 2011), which also revealed that prices of international flights increased by 20% within the same period. The transportation sector contributed a clear 8% of the total inflation for the year, whilst the rate of inflation in the Capital Male’ within that period had gone up to 11.27%. DNP also stated that in addition to transportation that other major price increases were observed from food, fish, education, and health sectors. Asia Pacific DCCI Review January 31st 2012 BIMSTEC states reaffirm commitment to alleviate poverty Planning and Finance Ministers of Bimstec member states have reaffirmed their commitment to alleviate poverty from the region and achieve MDGs within the stipulated time. They also adopted a plan of action on poverty alleviation and issued the Kathmandu Statement on poverty alleviation at the end of their second ministerial meeting on poverty alleviation held in Katmandu, according to a message received in Dhaka. They agreed to undertake specific measures and programmes under some broad strategies such as accelerated, pro-poor and inclusive growth; social development; targeted programmes for the poor; increased coverage for social protection; climate change; disaster risk management and good governance in the plan of action. Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Nepal Narayan Kaji Shrestha formally inaugurated the meeting. Planning Minister Air Vice Marshal (retd) AK Khandakar led the four-member Bangladesh delegation to the meeting. The other members of the delegation were GED, Planning Commission Dr Shamsul Alam, Director General for Saarc and Bimstec of the Foreign Ministry Syed Masud Mahmood Khundoker, and Minister, Bangladesh Embassy in Nepal Forhadul Islam. In the Kathmandu Statement, the ministers agreed to incorporate the aspects of the plan of action to reflect on their national plans and programmes; promote trade and tourism; improve transportation, communication linkages and greater connectivity. They also emphasised mutual cooperation among member states for environmental protection, and conservation and sustainable utilisation of natural resources for the reduction of poverty. The ministers also agreed to cooperate in technology transfer, capacity building and sharing best practices in poverty alleviation in the region. In the formal morning session of the ministerial meeting, AK Khandakar presented a paper on Bangladesh's economic performance, present status on poverty alleviation and MDGs. Bangladesh, despite many constraints, has been maintaining a steady growth, he said. He also said the pro-poor policy of the present Awami League government led by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina helped Bangladesh maintain track on achieving MDGs and improve all the social and economic indices in the country. Referring to the Vision 2021, the Planning Minister said the objective of his government is to elevate Bangladesh to a middle-income economy by 2021. BIMSTEC member states lauded Bangladesh for its success and progress made in the way of achieving MDGs. The sub-regional group BIST-EC (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Thailand Economic Cooperation) was formed on June 6, 1997 with four countries of the region. Bhutan, Myanmar and Nepal joined the group later and the name of the grouping was changed to Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) in 2004 at its first summit. China's Hu vows to tackle trade imbalances Chinese President Hu Jintao has pledged to resolve trade imbalances with nations that have huge deficits with the Asian powerhouse, as China marked the tenth anniversary of its accession to the WTO. In a speech in Beijing, Hu said China was not intentionally seeking a trade surplus -- a bugbear for major trade partners such as the United States who say Beijing's exports are cheap because its currency is undervalued. "We will strengthen economic cooperation with countries that have substantial trade deficits with China, and work together with them to gradually resolve trade imbalances," Hu said in the Great Hall of the People. "We will actively expand imports to drive the transformation of the foreign trade pattern in a bid to promote the basic balance of international payments. We do not deliberately pursue a trade surplus." The United States has recently stepped up criticism of what it says are unfair Chinese trade practices, in the face of deep US voter anger over high unemployment and the state of the economy. Some US lawmakers have criticised China's yuan currency, which they say is grossly undervalued, and therefore fuels the US trade deficit and costs US jobs. 19 Asia Pacific China, Japan scramble for oil as Sudan shuts fields The shutdown in Sudanese oil supply could drive up already record premiums on spot crude markets as top Sudan customers China and Japan scramble for alternatives even as they weigh the impact on oil flows of international sanctions on Iran. South Sudan has shut down its oil output, estimated at around 350,000 barrels per day (bpd), as it and neighbour Sudan row over how to disentangle their oil industries, borders and debt. Before the shutdown, China imported most of that volume, bringing in around 260,000 bpd in 2011, according to Chinese customs data. That loss, in addition to cuts China has made in imports from Iran as Beijing and Tehran bicker over contract terms, has left China looking for alternatives equivalent to around 10 percent of its imports, or around 545,000 bpd. "It will be a challenge to try to meet the shortfall in supply due to this sudden disruption as the overall quantity is not really that small," said Victor Shum, senior partner at oil consultancy Purvin & Gertz said. "Overall this is a tighter supply situation for Asian refiners." The regional spot market is unlikely to provide much relief because of limited availability due to a spurt in demand from Japan for power generation after a devastating earthquake crippled nuclear facilities last year. The supply disruption has added to the rally, boosting spot premiums for March to a record. It could drive prices even higher-although any rise may be tempered by refinery maintenance in the second quarter. 20 Sudan released vessels loaded with South Sudanese oil, but has yet to agree to more exports from the terminal. DCCI Review January 31st 2012 The shutdown by South Sudan in protest has cut off supplies to equity holders China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), Malaysia's Petronas and India's Oil & Natural Gas Corp. "We expect some disruption in loading schedules with the production shutdown," an official with one of the equity holders said. "We hope for a resolution soon." The heavy sweet grades-Nile and Dar Blend-produced in South Sudan are preferred in Japan for power production and by Chinese refineries. They are often blended to reduce sulphur content in fuel oil, a residue output from refining crude and mostly used for running ships, for sale to power utilities in markets such as Japan and Taiwan. Overall, the Asia-Pacific region is net short of crude as output from aging fields in Indonesia and Vietnam declines and as producers divert output to meet rising domestic demand. To make up for the loss from Iran, China has already been buying extra spot crude from Russia, West Africa, Middle East and also Vietnam in January and February. Japan PM shuffles cabinet to rescue tax hike plan Japan's premier reshuffled his cabinet just four months into the job as he looks to rescue plans to raise the sales tax and dig the country out from under its mountain of debt. Yoshihiko Noda used a round of ministerial musical chairs to rid himself of two under-fire colleagues whose presence had threatened to scupper his legislative programme and sink plans to hike consumption tax. He also brought in a political heavyweight to help drive through the unpopular tax rise that analysts of all stripes agree is needed if Japan is to get to grips with its huge debt, which stands at around 200 percent of GDP. "I've done the reshuffle to create the best and strongest cabinet lineup so as to steadfastly carry out the... social security and tax reforms, which we must face, which we cannot avoid or put off," Noda said at a press conference. All cabinet ministers present at a morning meeting handed in a letter of resignation but the bulk of them were told they would be staying in their posts. Five were replaced, chief among them were Defence Minister Yasuo Ichikawa and Consumer Affairs Minister Kenji Yamaoka, both of whom have been censured by the opposition-controlled upper house of parliament. Chief Cabinet Secretary Osamu Fujimura told a press conference that Katsuya Okada, a former party chief, had been brought in as deputy prime minister, a position that previously did not exist, with responsibility for -among other things -- reform of the social security and tax systems. Okada, 58, is a former foreign minister, an ex-DPJ leader and onetime trade ministry technocrat known for his exhaustive policy knowledge and strait-laced "Mr Clean" image. His political experience is widely believed to be vital if the administration is to garner the crossparty support it needs for tax reform legislation. Ichikawa's successor as defence chief is Naoki Tanaka, 71, husband of former foreign minister Makiko Tanaka and son-in-law of late premier Kakuei Tanaka. The new education minister will be Hirofumi Hirano while the new justice head will be upper house politician Toshio Ogawa. Jin Matsubara is the new consumer affairs minister. Heavyweight posts including foreign minister and finance minister were unchanged. The reshuffle was greeted with a political shrug by the opposition, with Asia Pacific Nobuteru Ishihara, secretary general of the Liberal Democratic Party, telling reporters Noda had "only changed some faces to cover up his responsibility for having failed to pick the right person" in the first place. With his approval ratings having slid since he took office in September, Noda is under pressure to do something to stop the rot if he is to avoid becoming the latest casualty of Japan's revolving door premiership, which saw his last five predecessors survive only a year each. He needs the help of the opposition to pass a package of tax and social reform bills and see through his unpopular plan to raise consumer tax from five percent to eight percent in early 2014 and 10 percent in late 2015. Japan considering alternative oil supplies Imminent international sanctions on Iranian oil exports aimed at pushing Tehran into giving up its nuclear programme have left resource-poor Japan searching for alternative supplies, officials said. With virtually no fossil fuels of its own, energy-hungry Japan is heavily dependent on the Middle East, with Iranian oil accounting for nearly nine percent of its power needs in the first 11 months of last year. Unlike its major allies, Tokyo has maintained a working relationship with Tehran, but the EU and the US are now stepping up efforts to squeeze Iran over what they believe is a nuclear weapons programme under the guise of a civilian power project. That has led to pressure on Japan to look elsewhere for its oil -- with Tokyo's largest supplier, Saudi Arabia an obvious choice. An official at JX Nippon Oil & Energy, Japan's biggest petroleum refiner, said it would cope with a ban on DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Iranian crude oil by "switching to imports from other Middle East countries and other regions including West Africa." "We are talking with Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries about measures in the event of a problem arising in Iranian supplies," the official told AFP. "But we cannot give you details on what we are discussing." Japan's industry minister Yukio Edano said the world's third biggest economy was prepared to "make efforts to minimise the impact (of such an oil embargo) on our country and the world economy." "We are not at a stage where we should answer a hypothetical question," the minister of economy, trade and industry told a regular news conference. "But, as a matter of course, we are making preparations by taking every possibility into consideration." Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba made an eight-day trip to Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates for talks expected to focus on the Iranian oil problem. S Korea’s growth slows due to eurozone crisis South Korea’s economy grew at its slowest pace for two years in the final quarter of 2011 as Europe’s debt crisis took its toll on exports and consumer spending, the central bank said. Gross domestic product in October-December rose 0.4 percent from the previous three months, compared with a 0.8 percent rise in the third quarter. It was the lowest quarter-on-quarter increase since 0.2 percent in OctoberDecember 2009. Year-on-year, Asia’s fourth largest economy grew 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to 3.5 percent in JulySeptember. “Amid sluggish domestic demand, exports turned negative,” senior central bank official Kim YoungBae told reporters. “The sovereign debt crisis in Europe had a larger than expected impact on facility investment and private consumption.” Exports, accounting for about half of GDP, declined 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter in October-December after expanding 2.2 percent in the three months earlier. Private spending fell 0.4 percent compared to a 0.4 percent rise in the previous quarter. Facility investment dropped 5.2 percent after falling 0.8 percent in July-September, while construction investment fell 0.3 percent following a 1.8 percent rise in the third quarter. The economy grew 3.6 percent last year compared with a 6.2 percent rise in 2010. Barclays Capital forecast that growth would pick up in the first quarter of this year amid firm US economic data and resilient demand from China. It said an upward revision in figures was possible next month because of firm employment conditions and a surge in start-up companies. Barclays tipped a 1.0 percent quarteron-quarter GDP expansion in January-March and maintained its 3.5 percent forecast for the full year. The central bank forecasts 3.7 percent growth this year. The central bank this month froze its key interest rate at 3.25 percent for a seventh straight month despite inflationary pressures, citing a significant global slowdown and Europe’s persistent sovereign debt crisis. HSBC Global Research said the figures confirm that “weakness is now embedded inside Korea’s economy”. It tipped a 25 basis point rate cut to support domestic demand by the end of the current quarter. It said the export outlook remains firm, thanks to a weaker won, the effect of free trade deals and easier manufacturing import costs. 21 Middle East DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Iran warns Saudi Arabia to reconsider vow to open oil taps Iran has warned Saudi Arabia to reconsider its vow to make up for any shortfall in Iranian oil exports under new sanctions, saying Riyadh's pledge to step into the market was unfriendly. Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi issued the warning in remarks carried by state media. "We invite Saudi officials to further reflect and consider" their offer to compensate for curbed Iranian oil exports, Salehi said. He attacked comments by Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi that Saudi oil output could be boosted by around 2.6 million barrels per day -- the same amount that Iran exports -- and that the world will not permit Iran to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz. "These signals are not friendly signals," Salehi said. "Iran expects all Persian Gulf countries, in particular Saudi Arabia ... to avoid making rash remarks." He also said that "the security of the Persian Gulf is a collective security and Iran is a major player in this regard." Iran has already told Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing Arab neighbours that if they step in to compensate for Iranian oil exports cut under looming EU and US sanctions, it "would not consider these actions to be friendly." Tehran's representative to OPEC, Mohammad Ali Khatibi, was quoted as saying that those countries "will be held responsible for what happens" if they did so, adding ominously: "One cannot predict the consequences." 22 Iran's political and military leaders have repeatedly said that if their country is unable to export its oil, they will stop other producers in the Middle East from sending their oil through the Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Gulf. The narrow channel is a chokepoint for more than a third of the world's tanker-borne oil, or 20 percent of the world's total traded oil, according to the US Energy Department. Saudi Arabia is by far the biggest exporter in OPEC, followed by Iran. Relations between the two countries have long been poor, and have become worse in recent months following US allegations that a thwarted plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador in Washington was hatched in Tehran. The Gulf Cooperation Council, which comprises oil-producers Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Kuwait and Qatar, has accused Iran of interfering in their members' internal affairs. Naimi's interview with CNN was recorded on the weekend, before Khatibi made his warning to Iran's neighbours, but after Iran's threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. He said Saudi Arabia was currently producing up to 9.8 million barrels per day, but had "substantial spare capacity" to produce 12.5 million bpd. "I believe we can easily get up to 11.4, 11.8 (million bpd) almost immediately, in a few days. Because all we need is to turn valves. Now to get (the rest) we probably need about 90 days," he said. On the threats over the Strait of Hormuz, Naimi said: "The world cannot stand for that." The United States and the European Union are ramping up sanctions on Iran in an effort to get it to halt its nuclear activities, which they fear include research on developing atomic weapons. Iran’s rial hits record low Iran’s currency, the rial, hit a record low against the dollar, the ISNA news agency reported, based on rates in black market trading that the government has tried to ban. The rial’s plunge, to 18,000 to the dollar, comes ahead of an EU foreign ministers’ meeting. The Tehran government has tried to shore up the value of the rial in recent weeks by imposing a lower rate in banks and currency exchange bureaux, and banning transactions outside of those outlets. But many exchange bureaux have refused to buy or sell dollars at the imposed rate, and blackmarket dealers have managed to continue to do business despite the presence of police deployed to enforce the ban, according to witnesses in the centre of Tehran. A website, mesghal.ir, that gives realtime values for the rial against other currencies, quoted a price of 18,200 to the dollar. Access to the site has been blocked on the Internet inside Iran, although people with a VPN (virtual private network) have been able to get around the filter. The black market figure quoted by ISNA represented a 29 percent difference with the imposed rate of 14,000. The rial has lost 40 percent of its value against the dollar in the past three months, as the United States and European countries have ramped up their sanctions. A sudden acceleration in the slide was seen in the first few days of January, after US President Barack Obama signed into law more sanctions hitting Iran’s central bank and targeting foreign companies that do business with Iran. Economy Minister Shamseddin Hosseini and Central Bank chief Mahmoud Bahmani were summoned before the Iranian parliament over the issue, and promised to bring the exchange rate under control. Middle East The pair “promised the market situation will be managed in a few days” with no difference between the official and blackmarket rates, Deputy Economy Minister Mohsen Salehi-Nia told the Mehr news agency. Although the government has insisted there is no connection between the rial’s slide and the new sanctions, some officials have admitted a “psychological” effect spooking ordinary Iranians. A rush to gold and other non-currency assets has been seen. The price of gold coins in Iran has risen 16 percent in the past week, according to ISNA. The European Union is poised to add to the sanctions by announcing a ban on exports of Iran’s most vital resource, oil, although the embargo is expected to be phased in over a number of months. US envoys, meanwhile, have been dispatched to several countries that trade significantly with Iran to try to persuade them to financially isolate the Islamic republic. Inflation in Kuwait at 3-year high Kuwait’s average inflation climbed to a three-year high of 4.8 percent in 2011, in line with analysts’ forecasts, data showed, but price pressures are expected to subside this year. Consumer price growth in the OPEC member, which was spared the unrest sweeping the Middle East and North Africa last year apart from some small-scale demonstrations, reached 4.0 percent in 2010. Kuwait’s 2011 inflation rate is the second-highest in the Gulf Arab oil-exporting region, just below 4.9 percent for Saudi Arabia. However, inflation in Kuwait, home to around 2.7 million people, decelerated last year, slowing to a 19month low of 3.1 percent in December from a 6.0 percent peak seen in DCCI Review January 31st 2012 December 2010, with expecting it to fall further. analysts “Right now there are no significant inflationary pressures in Kuwait,” said Giyas Gokkent, chief economist at National Bank of Abu Dhabi. “Global inflationary factors are not there. We have seen a significant decline in global food prices between February and December. In addition, the dollar has been quite strong. If we look at money and credit growth, they are also both very subdued so we don’t see inflation on the horizon,” he said. Bank lending to the private sector grew by a mere 2.6 percent year-onyear in December, while money supply growth slowed to a four-month low of 8.5 percent. On the month, consumer prices in Kuwait, which pegs its dinar to a dollar-dominated currency basket, edged higher by 0.5 percent, the fastest rise in three months, the data from the country’s Central Statistics Office showed. Food prices, which account for 18 percent of consumer expenses, soared by 1.1 percent month-on-month, rebounding sharply from a 0.1 percent rise in November. Housing costs, which make up for over a quarter of the basket, increased by 0.8 percent month-on-month in December after remaining flat in the previous two months. Analysts have expected prices in the world’s No. 6 crude exporter to go up last year helped by a rise in global commodity costs as well as the government’s social handouts. Last January, the government announced plans to spend nearly $5 billion, or almost 4 percent of its gross domestic product, on cash grants and free food rations for its citizens. A Reuters poll in December forecast average inflation of 4.8 percent in 2011 and 4.5 percent in 2012. “One thing that could stimulate price pressures in Kuwait is the development plan which they have, but it depends on how aggressively they pursue that,” Gokkent said. “But I don’t see any significant inflationary pressures at this juncture.” Parliament cleared a $110 billion development plan in Feb 2010, aiming to diversify away from oil and boost the private sector, but little remains spent so far due to political clashes, which led to two government resignations last year. Kuwait, one of the richest countries in the world with 2011 per capita income of over $40,700 estimated by the IMF, will hold parliamentary elections in February following the latest government resignation in November. Syrians grapple with economic crisis As President Bashar Assad fights off a 10-month-old uprising, Syrians have been struggling to cope with shortages of heating oil and other fuel, electricity cuts of up to 16 hours a day and dwindling bank balances. With no end in sight to the violent conflict, Assad’s embattled regime has sought to rally support by blaming the uprising – and the “terrorists” he says are behind it – for the profound economic crisis gripping the country of 22 million. The rhetoric reflects an awareness in the regime that economic pain could erode the support it has succeeded in retaining so far amid the turmoil. For now, though, many Syrians say their immediate needs transcend politics. “I haven’t seen such a crisis in my entire life,” said Majd Amer, a resident and activist in Homs, a city that has been among the hardest-hit by the military crackdown on protesters. “Most of the residents depend on assistance from their neighbours.” Syria’s economy is groaning under the weight of sanctions from the US, European Union, the Arab League, and the emerging regional power Turkey. The government’s violent crackdown on the uprising has 23 Middle East caused vital sources of revenue – like tourism – to dry up, and much of the economic squeeze has affected lowlevel merchants and businesses. The value of the Syrian pound has dropped 50 percent from 47 to the dollar to 71 to the dollar on the black market, sparking a rise in prices that is straining Syrian budgets. Central Bank Governor Adib Mayaleh said Syria will start next week to intervene to “improve the price of the pound,” meaning it would spend reserves to maintain the value. He declined to say how much money Syria has in foreign reserves, despite speculation that Damascus is already burning through its funds to withstand the blistering sanctions. In a telephone interview with The Associated Press, Mayaleh blamed the economic woes on an “international conspiracy,” echoing the regime’s line that foreign terrorists are driving the revolt against Assad, not protesters seeking change. Earlier this week, Syria’s oil minister said Western sanctions on Syrian oil exports have cost the country $2 billion since September – an unusually blunt assessment of the economic problems the country is facing. In a speech earlier, Assad blamed his opponents for Syrians’ suffering, and mockingly asked if being a revolutionary meant “depriving people of cooking oil they need so they don’t starve.” Analysts say the change in tone is a subtle shift by the regime. In the early days of the uprising, the government stressed it was invulnerable to the sanctions. But now, Assad and others increasingly cite Syrians’ suffering – and say the uprising is the cause of it all. The move signals a keen understanding that if the economy crumbles, it could spell doom for the regime. 24 “The regime is trying to mobilize against the sanctions, now that the sanctions are affecting their DCCI Review January 31st 2012 economy,” said Said Hirsh, a Mideast economist with Capital Economics in London. Assad has spent years shifting the country away from the socialism espoused by his father and predecessor. The result was a new and vibrant merchant class that transformed Syria’s economic landscape – even as the regime’s tight political grip remained unchanged. So far, the salaried classes have stuck beside Assad amid the greatest challenge yet to the 40-year rule of his family. But if the economic squeeze reaches them, it could be a gamechanger for Assad since they may begin to pressure for some sort of resolution to the crisis or even turn outright against him. The violent conflict in Syria has marked the most serious challenge to the Assad dynasty. The UN estimates some 5,400 have been killed since March, when the uprising began against Assad. Although the revolt began with mostly peaceful protests, an increasingly strong armed element has developed and many people are now fighting back against the regime. Army defectors, as well, have turned their weapons on government targets. Syrians say they are suffering a frigid winter with power cuts and scarce cooking and heating oil. In Homs, queues for gas cylinders, which cost about $5, can stretch more than 100 people; wealthier residents turn to the black market and pay double the price. Attacks on fuel pipelines have contributed to the shortages, and because of the chaos the state is slower – or unable – to fix electricity problems, causing cutoffs. Key revenue sources like tourism – which accounted for 12 percent of the economy, or $8 billion dollars in 2010 – have dried up. Visa and MasterCard credit cards are no longer valid in Syria, hurting prospects for international travel and business. Dubai launches $3.27b solar energy project The emirate of Dubai has unveiled plans to build a 12 billion dirham ($3.27 billion) solar energy park, with potential capacity of 1,000 megawatts (MW) as part of its efforts to reduce its energy reliance. Under Dubai’s Integrated Energy Strategy 2030, it plans to reduce energy imports and climate warming carbon dioxide emissions by 30 percent by 2030, using its own solar power and nuclear power imported from neighbouring emirate Abu Dhabi to reduce reliance on gas. Named after Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park will cover an area of 48 square km. The first solar plant of the park will have a capacity of 10 MW and is planned to commence operations by end-2013. It will cost around 120 million dirhams. “The members of the Supreme Council of Energy are financing the project,” said Saeed Mohammed Al-Tayer, vice chairman of Dubai’s Supreme Council of Energy, referring to the 10 MW plant. Among the members of the Council are various government entities such as the Dubai Supply Authority and Dubai Petroleum Establishment as well as Dubai Aluminum Company (DUBAL) and Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC). For the financing of the rest of the project, the Supreme Council of Energy was studying several options like developing a clean energy fund. It was also going to encourage private partnership, Nejib Zaafrani, secretary general and chief executive officer of Supreme Energy Council said. The United Arab Emirates is one of the world’s largest oil exporters, producing some 2.6 million barrels a day (bpd). But most of the UAE’s production is clustered in the emirate of Abu Dhabi, with Dubai producing only around 100,000 bpd from four existing fields, according to the US Energy Administration. International DCCI Review January 31st 2012 US debt is now as big as its economy The soaring national debt has reached a symbolic tipping point: It’s now as big as the entire US economy. The amount of money the federal government owes to its creditors, combined with IOUs to government retirement and other programmes, now tops $15.23 trillion. That’s roughly equal to the value of all goods and services the US economy produces in one year: $15.17 trillion as of September, the latest estimate. Private projections show the economy likely grew to about $15.3 trillion by December — a level the debt is likely to surpass this month. “The 100 percent mark means that your entire debt is as big as everything you’re producing in your country,” says Steve Bell of the Bipartisan Policy Center, which has proposed cutting nearly $6 trillion in red ink over 10 years. “Clearly, that can’t continue.” Long-term projections suggest the debt will continue to grow faster than the economy, which would have to expand by at least 6 percent a year to keep pace. President Barack Obama’s 2012 budget shows the debt soaring past $26 trillion a decade from now. Last summer’s deficit reduction deal could reduce that to $24 trillion. Many economists, such as the Brookings Institution’s William Gale, say a better measure of the nation’s debt is how much the government owes creditors, not counting $4.7 trillion owed to future Social Security recipients and other government beneficiaries. By that measure, the debt is roughly a third less: $10.5 trillion, or nearly 70 percent the size of the economy. That is still high by historical standards. The total national debt topped the size of the economy for three years during and after World War II. British debt passes one trillion pounds The UK hovernment’s debt has smashed through the one trillion pounds barrier for the first time despite a bigger-than-expected fall in borrowing last month, figures revealed. Public sector borrowing, excluding financial interventions such as bank bailouts, fell 2.2 billion pounds to 13.7 billion pounds in the month. The experts had expected it to fall to 14.9 billion pounds. But this was still enough to drive net debt to 1,003.9 billion pounds, or 64.2% of GDP, up from 883 billion pounds a year ago, and its highest since records began in 1993. The bigger-than-expected fall in Government borrowing in the month was partly offset by a 1.3 billion pounds increase in estimates for borrowing between April and November after local Government spending was revised upwards. But UK Chancellor, Finance secretary, George Osborne is still on track to hit a target set by the Office for Budget Responsibility to reduce borrowing to 127 billion pounds in the financial year despite fears that the UK is on the brink of recession, the experts pointed out. Central government spending fell 0.9 percent as the Chancellor’s austerity measures increasingly kick in, while the tax haul rose with the help of last year’s rise in VAT to 20 percent and the levy on banks’ balance sheets. It is the fourth month in a row that borrowing has fallen on the previous year. But there are fears that the deficit reduction plans may be derailed, with many economists expecting another recession, which would hit tax revenues and increase spending on benefit payments. The government borrowed a total of 103.3 billion pounds between April and December, which is 11.3 billion pounds lower than the previous year. A Treasury spokesman said “That our national debt has reached more than one trillion pounds simply shows the unsustainable level of spending this country built up over the past few years, and shows why it is critical for our nation’s future that we deal decisively with the deficit. The figures show that we are making good progress, with borrowing over 11 billion pounds lower than in the same period last year. It is understood that the Government’s debt will fall back below the one trillion pounds barrier in January as its coffers are swelled by increased tax returns. But debt is expected to push back past one trillion pounds in February as the Government continues to borrow more, the experts said. The Government’s one trillion pounds debt figure excludes financial interventions but when these are added net debt hit 2.3 trillion pounds in December, which is 149 percent of GDP, and reflects the impact of bailing out some of the UK’s largest banks following the credit crunch. IMF warns of euro-zone spiral as banks take cover European banks stowed record sums in the ECB for safe keeping as a top IMF official warned the euro-zone faced a “downward spiral” in the wake of a batch of stinging credit downgrades. France’s President Nicolas Sarkozy received a boost when Moody’s declined to follow rival ratings agency Standard and Poor’s in stripping Paris of its triple-A status but headed for crisis talks in Spain with clouds gathering. Euro-zone banks put 493.3 billion euros ($623.7 billion) on 24- 25 International hours deposit with the European Central Bank overnight, topping a record of 489 billion euros and highlighting fears of a credit crunch. Meanwhile, IMF First Deputy Managing Director David Lipton warned Asian finance and banking chiefs meeting in Hong Kong of trouble ahead. “Europe could be swept into a downward spiral of collapsing confidence, stagnant growth, and fewer jobs,” he said. “In today’s interconnected global economy, no country and no region would be immune from that catastrophe.” European leaders are due to meet on January 30 to agree a new fiscal pact to coordinate deficit reduction programs and attempt to reassure the bond markets that they are on top of the sovereign debt crisis. But S&P downgrade of nine European economies and the impasse in talks between private lenders and debtwracked Greece have raised fears that the markets will not be content to wait until governments provide answers. Sarkozy, who saw France stripped of its top AAA credit rating, was to receive an award from King Juan Carlos in Madrid before holding a working meeting with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy. S&P’s rival Moody’s gave Sarkozy some welcome relief when it said it would not follow suit but it also warned that it was still reviewing whether to maintain its “stable” outlook on France. 26 Spain and Italy were both hit by double downgrades in the S&P report card, piling pressure on governments and the euro in the run-up to the EU summit. The euro remained under pressure but edged up to $1.2680 in early London trading from $1.2677 in New York, when it plunged to a 17month low at $1.2624 — a level last seen in August 2010. DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Already, by slapping nine euro-zone members with downgrades and putting all the others bar Germany on notice that they are under scrutiny, S&P has undermined the European Financial Stability Facility. The EFSF is supposed to act as a bail-out fund to back-stop weak economies but it owes its own credit-worthiness to its triple-A backers and now faces a downgrade of its own. Many European leaders are furious over S&P’s decision and are scrambling to restore their credibility ahead of the January 30 summit-the latest in what is now a long line of emergency “save the euro” meetings. “Let there be no mistake: this is not a crisis of the euro as a currency,” the European Union’s internal market commissioner Michel Barnier told the Asian Financial Forum in Hong Kong. “The euro is here to stay. In the last 10 years the euro has proven itself as a true world currency and despite the difficulties, it remains strong. “The real crisis the euro-zone faces right now is a crisis of confidence. Our political unity and our determination and our ability to rectify what is wrong are being tested,” he said. Italy meets France as eurozone wobbles once more The eurozone's debt-wracked economies came under renewed pressure as bad economic data undermined leaders' attempts to reassure markets that an end to the crisis is in sight. Italy's Prime Minister Mario Monti met France's President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris, as the heads of the single currency bloc's second and third biggest economies sought to head off new doubts about their deficit reduction plans. But first, European governments and markets were confronted with a raft of gloomy economic figures from Brussels: unemployment stuck at a record high, retail sales down and consumer and business confidence sinking. Analysts said the data showed that eurozone's economy had contracted in the last quarter of 2011 and will likely shrink again in the first quarter of the year. Positive new US figures showed unemployment there falling to 8.5 percent, but in Europe the picture was more bleak. Official figures showed that eurozone unemployment remained at a record 10.3 percent for the second month running in November. The batch of eurozone data has recession written all over it, said ING analyst Martin van Vliet. Nervous European banks parked 455 billion euros ($582 billion) in the safe haven of the European Central Bank overnight -- a new record -- preferring to earn low interest rather than take the risk of lending to each other. After a brief respite from bad headlines over the New Year holiday period, the eurozone debt crisis resurfaced with a vengeance, driving down the single currency and threatening Italy and Spain. France has yet to face the same soaring interest rates as its southern neighbours, but its Triple-A debt rating is under the imminent threat of a downgrade and bond markets losing faith in EU financial reform plans. "It's not France being targeted, it's 15 of the 17 members of the eurozone," ratings agency Standard and Poor's chief European economist JeanMichel Six told the daily Le Parisien when asked about France's Triple-A. "The problem more than anything is the way the eurozone functions, which leaves a lot to be desired," he said. Monti rattled markets with an unannounced visit to Brussels before moving on to Paris and he is due to see Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin next week to prepare International for a January 30 EU summit. Sarkozy will also see Merkel, amid a disagreement between Paris and Berlin over a planned tax on financial transactions. France has threatened to go it alone, if Europe does not follow suit by the end of the year. The Paris talks came as IMF director Christine Lagarde warned that the body is likely to reduce its 4.0 percent global growth forecast, as recession threatens the developed world economies battered by the debt crisis. Crisis prompts Germany to cut 2012 growth forecast Germany’s government cut the country’s 2012 growth forecast in the wake of a faltering global economy and Europe’s debt crisis, but said Europe’s largest economy should avoid sinking back into recession. Following what is believed to have been a contraction in economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2011, Economy Minister Philipp Roesler said the government had reduced Germany’s growth forecast for this year to 0.7 percent from 1 percent – its second reduction in three months. As recently as October, the prediction had been 1.8 percent. Germany’s economy, the world’s fourth largest, is thought to have contracted by up to 0.3 percent in last year’s fourth quarter compared with the previous three-month period, though final numbers are not yet in. Roesler said he expects growth of 0.1 percent in the current quarter, which would mean that Germany avoids slipping into a technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Other forecasters have painted a bleaker picture, however, with many – such as Commerzbank last week – predicting that Germany will fall into a modest recession in the first quarter before returning to growth. Roesler said “a DCCI Review January 31st 2012 temporary dent in growth can be expected for the coming months” but predicted that “the economy will gradually liven up over the course of 2012.” Growth next year is expected to be 1.6 percent, he said. Roesler conceded there were risks around the forecasts, not least from financial market turbulence and the debt crisis in the 17-country eurozone. “Germany remains on the course of growth – assuming that there is no new sudden crisis on the financial markets, and the uncertainty in the euro-zone above all gradually abates,” said Roesler, who is also Germany’s vice chancellor. Over 2011 as a whole, Germany grew by 3 percent – following a growth spurt of 3.7 percent in 2010 after its emergence from recession the previous year. That contrasted with the performance of many of its partners in the eurozone, which have seen their economies barely grow or shrink amid debt troubles and tough austerity measures. The German government figures come after the World Bank forecast that the euro-zone economy as a whole will contract by 0.3 percent this year. It sees the United States growing by 2.2 percent, Japan by 1.9 percent and China by 8.4 percent. Exports have been the bedrock of Germany’s growth over recent years, but Roesler said this year’s expansion will stem from stronger domestic demand. His ministry forecast that export growth will slow to 2 percent from 8.2 percent last year. It also expects a further improvement in Germany’s already-bright labour market picture, with the average unemployment rate this year projected to fall from last year’s 7.1 percent – already a two-decade low – to 6.8 percent. German industrial orders post sharp fall Industrial orders in Germany fell by a much bigger-than-expected 4.8 percent in November compared to a month earlier, hit by falling orders from abroad, new data showed. An increase in orders for October was also revised slightly downwards to 5.0 percent from 5.2 percent, according to the figures released by the Economy Ministry. Due to the October increase, orders for November had been expected to fall but the figure exceeded the expectations of analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires, who had predicted a fall of 1.7 percent. Orders from abroad slumped by 7.8 percent in November while those from Germany fell by 1.1 percent, the ministry said in a written statement. "Even without taking into account big orders, the dynamic of demand is currently weak. In line with forecasts, that signifies limited development for industrial production during the winter months," it said. For the period of October to November compared to the twomonth period of August-September, manufacturing orders rose by 0.2 percent, the figures showed. However Christian Schulz, analyst at Berenberg Bank, said that leading indicators suggested that German industrial output remained "fairly resilient". "However this export-dependent sector will eventually suffer from the weakness of important debt-crisis-hit trading partners and is likely to drag the German economy into contraction in Q1 2012," he said. And Andreas Rees, an economist at UniCredit, said the figure for manufacturing orders did not necessarily spell looming doom and gloom. 27 International "The latest strong decline is not a harbinger of a nasty recession but above all a technical payback after the tremendous rise in the previous month." Better-than-expected German jobless data earlier this week showed Europe's biggest economy appeared to be holding up to the debt crisis. Other figures revealed German consumption was at its strongest level for more than a decade in 2011 and new car registrations, a key gauge of demand in one of the country's most important industrial sectors, rose in December and over the whole of 2011. Brazil inflation 6.5pc in 2011, highest since 2004 Consumer prices in Brazil rose 6.5 percent in 2011, reaching the upper limit of the government target but the highest hike since 2004, the state statistics agency said. The 2011 increase compared with the 7.6 percent surge recorded in 2004 and 5.9 percent in 2010. The government had set an annual inflation target of 4.5 percent, with a ceiling of 6.5 percent. Prices were up 0.5 percent in December, following a DCCI Review January 31st 2012 half percent hike in November, the Brazilian Geography and Statistics Institute (IBGE) said. The announcement coincided with a downward revision of GDP growth in Latin America's leading economy as a result of the eurozone debt crisis. The government said the economy would expand around 3.0 percent this year, sharply lower than the 7.5 percent recorded in 2010 amid expectations of a gradual drop in inflation due to the global economic slowdown. The Central Bank said inflation this year should dip to 4.5 percent in line with the official target. It welcomed the fact that the inflation target "was met in 2011 for the eighth consecutive year." "Inflation is heading downward and closed 2011 at 6.5 percent, after reaching 7.3 percent in the third quarter," it said, adding that "other indicators bolster the perception of a significant cooling-off of inflationary pressure." "We hope that this downward movement toward the centre of the (government) target will continue, so that (inflation) ends 2012 below 5.0 percent," said acting finance minister Nelson Barbosa. "Food prices have already begun decelerating, with a fall in relation to 2010, and this deceleration should continue. And services prices, with the stable jobless rate, should remain stable," he told reporters. Prices which rose the most last year were those of transport, up 3.6 percent due to higher prices for various household budget items such as air fares and ethanol. East Europe central bankers still keen on euro Countries in central and eastern Europe, including Hungary, still want to join the euro despite the current debt crisis, central bankers in the region told a conference. "People say that what doesn't kill you makes you stronger," Boris Vujcic, deputy head of Croatia's central bank, told the Euromoney Central and Eastern European Forum in Vienna. "That is my hope -- that the eurozone will be stronger, that it will be built on more solid ground, that the missing links will be there by that time. If that is so, in 2013, I think that for Croatia the choice is very easy. "We are so deeply involved and integrated in the financial sector and the real sector that there is very little doubt that (adopting the euro) is the right choice." Croatia signed an EU accession treaty last month, paving the way for it to join the 27-nation bloc -- but not the troubled 17-country eurozone -- on July 1, 2013. 28 Members of the EU, except Britain and Denmark which have opt-outs, are all meant to adopt the euro eventually. In 2007, Slovenia became the first ex-communist state to do so, followed by Slovakia in 2009. EU member Hungary's central bank chief Andras Simor said that his country's economy was more closely integrated International with the core countries in the eurozone than are certain members on its periphery. "In practical terms we are fully convinced that the eurozone forms an optimum currency zone with Hungary. There are lots of economic reasons to join," Simor told the Vienna conference. "The question is not if, the question is what is the best time. We probably need to wait and see how the present problems in the eurozone are sorted out. "Secondly we have the luxury of being able to learn from the mistakes of other countries that have joined before us." Hungary has been hit hard in recent months however by a drop in its currency, the forint, forcing it to seek a 15-20-billion-euro ($20-25 billion) credit line from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Talks however have snagged over IMF and EU objections to reforms of the central bank that they worry increases government influence on monetary policy, with Brussels even launching legal action. Latvia's central bank chief Ilmars Rimsevics said meanwhile that his country was already in the so-called ERM II mechanism, the waiting room for eurozone entry which pegs their currencies to the euro. "Latvia's goal is to join the euro in 2014 and therefore 2012 is a very important year for us because next spring will be the measurement time," Rimsevics said. Among other countries in the region, 38-million-strong Poland says it expects by 2015 to meet all the economic criteria for eurozone entry, but -- like the Czech Republic -- has not set an adoption date. "Adoption of the euro is only a question of time," said Polish central DCCI Review January 31st 2012 bank board member Andrzej Raczko. "In my opinion the Maastricht criteria are not the most important criteria ... but the reform of the eurozone." Party backed the constitutional reform and then won November 20 general elections with a promise to fix Spain's budget and economic woes. Spain bans deficits in regions from 2020 "The government aims to achieve fiscal consolidation and a reduction of the deficit and public debt," Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria told reporters. Romania's deputy central bank chief Cristian Popa said: "The Romanian authorities are committed to joining the euro, we even have a target date for the decision which is 2015. Spain's government said it had approved a new budget law that bans the country's 17 powerful regions from sliding into deficit from 2020. "All autonomous regions must present balanced or surplus budgets," Budget Minister Cristobal Montoro told a news conference after a weekly cabinet meeting adopted the measure. The aim was to "regain an image of solidity with our investors" by laying the foundations for a return to economic growth and job creation, the minister said. The 17 Spanish regions, which run their own big health and education budgets, have been heavily in debt since the 2008 collapse of a property bubble. The regions are expected to post an overall public deficit equal to 2.3-2.4 percent of gross domestic product for 2011, missing a 1.3percent target set by Madrid by a large margin. Spain has vowed to curb overspending by 2020 by law, aiming to keep its accumulated public debt below a ceiling of 60 percent of GDP and the structural public deficit at a maximum 0.4 percent of GDP. The planned budget law accompanies a constitutional reform enforcing budget discipline, which was passed in September last year under the then Socialist government. Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's conservative Popular The latest budget law should sail through parliament. Although the Popular Party enjoys an absolute majority since its crushing election win, it is expected to seek a consensus with the opposition. Italy’s industrial production shrinks 0.9 per cent Italian industrial production shrank more than expected in October, appearing to confirm economists’ fears that Europe’s third-biggest economy is entering a recession, official figures showed yesterday. Industrial production dropped 0.9 percent in October from the September level according to seasonally adjusted figures, the National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) said. Production shrank 4.3 percent over 12 months, the biggest yearly drop since December 2009. The results were much worse than economists had expected. According to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires, experts had forecast a 0.4-percent drop for the month and a 1.5-percent drop for the year. The negative figures-which follow a 4.6 percent drop on a month in September-fuel fears that the Italian economy has already begun to contract. 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Intensified collaboration between Re-Tie and BTA The EU funded project “Re-Tie Bangladesh: Reduction of environmental threats and increase of exportability of Bangladeshi leather products” under the EU SWITCH-Asia programme is currently working very closely with the Bangladesh Tanners Association (BTA). In January 2012 there have been several activities together with BTA. On 2nd of January, Re-Tie local coordinator was present at an executive member meeting and the following topics were discussed: • Identification of the BTA tanneries to be shifted in the first batch to Savar Tannery Estate. • New allotment of plots for BTA tanneries at the Savar Tannery Estate since some tanneries want to create clusters in order to use common facilities to reduce cost e.g. 5 BTA tanneries may want to make a cluster so that they can share the use of some expensive equipment or share the investment for shifting and construction etc. • Identify those tanneries that need support in the preparation of tannery design or tannery layout. Each tannery has a different size of plots and specific requirements. After this meeting, the local coordinator will discuss the matter with BSCIC, which is managing the Savar Tannery Estate, and based on the information collected, Re-Tie will assist BTA in formulating position papers and provide technical assistance related to the topics 34 ThisprojectisfundedbytheEuropeanUnion named. Another activity was the implementation of 2 training programme, on “Sorting, Grading & Curing of Raw Hides and Skins” initiated as a result of discussions in BTA focus groups. interest to work with Re-Tie and consequently a meeting was being held in Re-Tie local office on 8th of January 2012 where Mr. Abdus Samad, Manager Commercial SAF Industries Ltd was present. SAF tannery a ‘good practice example’ in and for Bangladesh UNIDO International expert Mr. Alf Tore Rongved visited SAF Tannery in Jessor district, 350 km away from Dhaka, one of the few modern tanneries in Bangladesh, during his last mission and was impressed by the much higher quality standards than in Hazaribagh. The SAF management expressed their Energy saving in tanneries Re-Tie national experts for energy saving made a trial about Power Factor Indicator (PFI) in MB Tannery recently. Mr. Ahsanur Rashid showed that 6,000 BDT can be saved monthly. This result will be delivered to director of the board of MB Tannery in February. The trainings were cofunded by Leather Sector Business Promotion Council (LSBPC) and organised by BTA with some technical support provided by Re-Tie local experts and group consultants. The training was conducted at the Institute of Leather Engineering & Technology (formerly BCLET/Leather College) on 16th and 17th of January 2012. In that meeting National Expert Dr. Himangshu Ronjon Ghosh made a power point presentation on Solar Water Heating System (SWHS) for tanneries. Mr. Abdus Samad showed his interest for SWHS and requested further consultancy support from ReTie for their effluent treatment plant, solid waste management, Aquamix and high-volume lowpressure (HVLP) spray gun. Thisprojectisimplementedbysequa,UNIDO,bfz,DCCI,BFLLFEAandBTA-www.switchretiebd.org Share Market DCCI Review January 31st 2012 Share Market Intelligence (as on 31 January, 2012) Company Dhaka Stock Exchange R.N. Spinning Mills Grameen Phone United Airways BEXIMCO Ltd. National Bank Fu-wang Ceramic UCBL Beacon Pharma Square Pharma Social Islami Bank Company Volume (Shares) 2,728,665 664,000 3,840,101 895,752 1,150,345 1,684,150 1,557,312 1,815,275 235,700 2,098,973 Dhaka Stock Exchange Grameen Phone Square Pharma National Bank Titas Gas Trans. ICB Islami Bank Ltd. BATBC BSRM Steel Ltd. Lafarge Surma Cement Prime Bank Ltd. Currency EUR US$ GBP AUD YEN CAD S’PORE$ Source : The Independent Mkt. Cap (M. Tk.) 207,366 52,241 51,914 50,290 49,950 47,957 33,975 32,006 30,196 29,547 Top 10 Turnover Leaders Tunover (‘000 Tk.) Company 114,904.08 101,970.48 74,766.77 69,832.83 69,411.82 58,928.41 52,668.29 47,414.98 46,494.18 45,694.64 Chittagong Stock Exchange Volume (Shares) United Airways Grameen Phone UCBL BEXIMCO Ltd. National Bank Aftab Automobiles Lafarge Surma Cement Beacon Pharma BSRM Steel Ltd. People’s Leasing Top 10 Market Capitals % of Total (Mkt. Cap) Company 12.21 3.08 3.06 2.96 2.94 2.82 2.00 1.88 1.78 1.74 Mkt. Cap (M. Tk.) (as on 31 January, 2012) Buying 111.70 84.45 132.86 89.96 1.10 84.35 67.47 31,152.82 24,571.80 23,100.20 16,418.66 11,537.68 11,229.42 10,529.33 9,284.08 8,894.70 8,131.87 Chittagong Stock Exchange Grameen Phone Delta Life Insurance ICB National Bank Square Pharma Titas Gas Trans. Islami Bank Ltd. BATBC BSRM Steel Ltd. Lafarge Surma Cement Exchange Rates 1,603,336 160,600 692,037 212,100 190,611 103,316 410,500 354,625 90,000 163,225 Turnover (‘000 Tk.) 206,596 94,506 53,663 52,078 52,008 50,601 47,356 34,448 32,169 29,789 % of Total (Mkt. Cap.) 11.56 5.29 3.00 2.91 2.91 2.83 2.65 1.93 1.80 1.67 Selling 111.76 84.48 132.95 90.04 1.10 84.41 67.54 35 Trade Information DCCI Review January 31st 2012 TRADE INFORMATION Prepared by DCCI Research Cell January - 2012 1 The following Trade Inquiries have been received in the Chamber from different sources abroad. Interested member-firms may like to contact them directly without any obligation on the part of DCCI. SRILANKA EXPO 2012 FAIRS & EXHIBITIONS Date : 28-31 March, 2012 Organizer : The Sri Lanka Export Development Board (EDB) Tel: 94 11 2300715-11, 94 11 2303974 Fax: 94 11 2300715, 94 11 2305212 Email: [email protected], [email protected] Website:www.srilankabusiness.com, www.srilankaexpo.com 11th Saarc Trade Fair and Tourism Mart-2012 Beijing Textile Machinery International Exhibition Co. Ltd. (BJITME) No.12 East Chang An Street ,100742, Beijing China. Tel:0086-10-85229372; Fax: 0086-10-85229480,+ 85229026 Email: [email protected] Website: www.citme.com.cn Shelley Shan, Sub-Council of Textile Industry, CCPIT(CCPIT TEX) Room 422, No. 12 East, Chang An Street, Beijing China. Tel; 86 10 65212081 Fax: 86 10 85229374 Email: [email protected] Website: www.ccoittex Date : 30-31 March –1 April 2012 14 China International Exhibition on Gases Technology, Equipment and Application Contact: 1 Kawran Bazar Dhaka-1215 Tel: 9144821, 8151496, 9128377 Fax: 88-02-9119531 Email: [email protected] Website : www.epb.gov.bd Venue : Nanijng International Expo Center (Hall A) Jiangsu Province China Organizer : Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) NEC Birmingham, UK Asia Pacific Chambers Congress (APCC) and the China International Import Expo (CIE) Date : 29-31 March, 2012 Contact person: Ms. Zhang Zhou Email: [email protected] Tel: 8610-82217867 Mr. Liu Shaobo Email : [email protected] Tel: 8610-82218813 Nepal International Trade Fair – 2012 Date : 5-9 April 2012 Contact person : Mr. Bishnu Raj Dhakal Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce & Industry P.O. Box : 269, Pachali Shaid Shukra FNCCI Milan MargTeku, Kathmandu, Nepal. Tel: 4262061, 4262218, 4266889, Fax : 977-1-4261022, 4262007 Email: [email protected] , Website: www.fncci.org Pan Asia Commodity, Culture and Tourism Fair June 2012 Venue : Chengdu International Exhibition and Conference Centre Contact : Catherine Yang, Exhibition Department China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) Sichuan Council Chengdu City., Sichuan. P.R.China Tel: 0086-28-61963056 , Mobile ; 0086-15928927529 Fax: : 0086-28-6196 3056, E-mail : vanaduaniie529(®vahoo.cpm.cn ITMAASIS+CITME, (Textile and Garments Fair), Shanghai, China. Date : 27-31 July 2012 36 Organizer : Venue : Shanghai New International Expo Center 12-14 September, 2012 Organizer : China Industrial Gases Industry Association Contact person : Ms. Jessinca Liu Overseas Relations AIT Events Company Limited CIGIA-China Industrial Gases Industry Association Airport Property Group Building (3rd floor) No.6 Yumin Street Zone B Tianzhu Airport Industrial Park, Beijing China. Tel: 86-10-85868930-217, Fax: 86-01-85868931 Website : www.china-gases.com, igchina-expo.com China Import & Export Fair (Canton Fair) Date : October 2012 (Dead line 15 July 2012.) Venue : China Export &lmport Fair Pazhou Complex, Guangzhou Contact person : Ms. Sandy Li Mobile : -+86-13905009808, Email: [email protected] Mr. Mark Lin Mobile : 86-13799362686 Email: [email protected] Ms Charlotte Lin, Mobile: : 86-13959192881, Email: chariotte(@cantonfair-int.com Fax :+ 86-591-88013532, Web. www.cantonfarr.ora.cn South Asian Countries Commodities Fair (SACCF), Kunming Fair Date : 6-10 June 2012; (Last date : Before 31 March 2012.) Venue: Kunming International Exhibition and Convention Center Organizer : Office of the China Import & Export Fair, Kunming, Add : 4/F,Foreign Trade Building.175 Beijing Road.Kuhming. Yunnan. Contact Officer- Mr. Chen Menglei Tel: 8713141017 Fax-8713164304, Email: [email protected] DCCI Picnic in pictures DCCI Review January 31st 2012 A scene from Pillow-passing competition Biscuit race for the Children Raffle draw prizes distribution 37 DCCI warm cloth distribution in picture DCCI Review January 31st 2012 DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (third from right) presenting warm cloths to Secretary General of Azad Muslim Welfare Complex Alhaj Altaf Hossain (second from right) for distributing to the coldstriken distressed people of old Dhaka on 15 January. DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (third from left), Director Hossain A Sikder (second from left) and Additional Secretary (Admin) Syed Delwar Hossain are also seen in the picture DCCI Senior Vice President Haider Ahmed Khan, FCA (third from left) presenting warm cloths to the representative of Nilphamari Chamber of Commerce & Industry (third from right) for distributing to the coldstriken distressed people on 5 January. DCCI Directors M Abu Horaira (second from left), Hossain A Sikder (second from right) former Director Alhaj Md. Nasiruddin Khan (right) and Additional Secretary (Admin) Syed Delwar Hossain (left) are also seen in the picture DCCI Secretary Mustafa Mohiuddin (third from right) presenting warm cloths to the Secretary of Lalmonirhat Chamber of Commerce & Industry (second from right) for distributing to the cold-striken distressed people on 7 January. DCCI Additional Secretary (Admin) Syed Delwar Hossain (second from left) is also seen in the picture. 38 Pictorial DCCI Review January 31st 2012 DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (left) addressing at a Memorial Meeting on Late Samson H. Chowdhury at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre on 14 January. President of International Chamber of Commerce, Bangladesh Mahbubur Rahman (third from right), President of FBCCI A. K. Azad (second from right) and President of Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce & Industry Maj. Gen. Amjad Khan Chowdhury (retd.) (second from left) are seen in the picture DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (right) addressing as special guest at the '10 years Celebration of Supermarket in Bangladesh' organized by Bangladesh Supermarket Owners' Association (BSOA) at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre on 24 January. Industries Minister Dilip Barua (second from left) and President of BSOA Niaz Rahim (third from left ) are also seen in the picture DCCI President Asif Ibrahim (right) seen discussing with the Vice Secretary-general of China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPT), Yunnan Sub-Council Ms. Tan Yun (third from left) at DCCI on 7 January 39 40