The Economic Activity Location Impact (EALI) study

Transcription

Aberdeen City Council
Union Street P edestrianisation:
STAG Part 1 EALI Assessm ent
CONTENTS
S ECTION
PAGE
1
INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1
2
STAG AND METHODOLOGY.................................................................................................... 3
3
ECONOMIC PROFILE.............................................................................................................13
4
PEDESTRIAN SURVEY...........................................................................................................22
5
BUSINESS SURVEY ...............................................................................................................29
6
IMPACT OF USP....................................................................................................................40
APPENDICES
APPENDIX A:
APPENDIX B:
APPENDIX C:
APPENDIX D:
APPENDIX E:
STAG TABLES
SURVEYS
PEDESTRIAN SURVEY TABLES
BUSINESS SURVEY TABLES
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF PEDESTRIANISATION: REFERENCES
A Report by
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October 03
Union Street Pedestrianisation: STAG Part 1 EALI Assessment
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Introduction
1.
DTZ Pieda Consulting was appointed by Aberdeen City Council to undertake a Part 1
Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) assessment of the proposals to
pedestrianise Union Street between Market Street and Bridge Street.
This
assessment was to be carried out as required by the Scottish Transport Appraisal
Guidance (STAG).
2.
The objective of an EALI assessment is to capture the impact of the proposed project
on the local and national economy in terms of income and employment. When
carrying out a Part 1 EALI (which is the purpose of this report) the appraisal process
should identify in qualitative terms:
§
The potential impacts (both positive and negative) of the proposal; and
§
The areas and people/social groups likely to be affected.
Union Street Pedestrianisation (USP)
3.
Union Street is the main street in the city centre and links the main shopping centres
– the Trinity Centre, St. Nicholas Centre and the Bon-Accord Centre. Running
east/west it is four lanes wide, with two of these allocated as bus lanes. The
purpose of this study is to assess the impact of proposals that Union Street be fully
pedestrianised along the stretch between Bridge Street and Market Street.
4.
Although it is only one section of Union Street that is proposed to be pedestrianised,
the impacts of the development will be felt across the wider city centre area. This
study considers the impact of the proposal across a postcode defined city centre
region. The study area as defined approximates to, but extends beyond, the area
covered by the Aberdeen City Centre Partnership.
Potential Impacts of Pedestrianisation
5.
Evidence gathered from the experience of other towns and cities following
pedestrianisation indicates a number of examples in which such schemes have had a
positive impact on the local economy. Specific benefits noted in a number of studies
include increases in pedestrian flows in the area and increased turnover for local
retailers.
(i)
6.
However, a number of studies also note potential negative impacts or mitigating
factors. For instance, rental increases price local traders out of the area; increased
pedestrian flows do not necessarily imply an increase in actual expenditure by
shoppers; Increases in turnover may be mitigated by increased costs.
7.
Overall, it is likely that the net impact of a pedestrianisation scheme in a specific area
will depend upon a number of factors including quality of accompanying streetscape
improvements, the competitive position of the retail area, general economic trends,
overall town centre policy, degree of accessibility by public transport & cars, detailed
design and population density within walking distance of the pedestrian zone.
Methodology
8.
The approach to the study has involved a combination of desk research,
consultations, a business survey and a survey of pedestrians on Union Street.
9.
Desk Research: Through desk research the study area for the project was defined.
Background information on the performance of the study area and the Aberdeen City
Council area was analysed.
10.
Consultations: During the course of the study consultations were held with a
number of organisations to obtain information and to discuss the potential impact of
the pedestrianisation proposals.
11.
Business Survey: A significant element of the study was face to face interviews
with businesses throughout the study area and across all sectors of the Aberdeen
city centre economy. In total, 38 interviews were undertaken.
12.
Pedestrian Survey: A survey of 500 pedestrian users of Union Street was
undertaken between Monday 28th July and Friday 8th August.
Study Area Economic Profile
13.
The population of the study area was estimated at 24,200 people in 2001, or 11% of
the population of the Aberdeen City Council area. Forecasts prepared by Aberdeen
City Council show a modest decline in the population of Aberdeen city over the
period 2000-2016.
(ii)
14.
Employment in the study area in 2001 was estimated 43,500 employee jobs, or 26%
of total employment in the Aberdeen City Council area. Key sectors in the city centre
include business services, retailing and hotels and catering. Together these sectors
account for more than half of all employment in the city centre area.
15.
Overall, employment in Aberdeen City is forecast to fall by 1,000 jobs over the period
2000-2106. This decline is largely driven by the forecast loss of jobs in the oil sector
and the manufacturing sector. Over the same period, key sectors such as retailing
and business services are expected to show employment growth across the city.
Both of these sectors are of particular importance in the study area.
16.
Retail floorspace in the city centre in 2002 comprised 11,900 square metres of
convenience goods floorspace (around 10% of the total available across the city) and
some 200,600 square metres of comparison goods floorspace (around three quarters
of that available across the city).
17.
As at April 2003 rents in the city’s retail zone A were estimated at £165 per square
foot. This represented an increase of 38% over the past 5 years. Growth in rental
levels in Aberdeen city have outstripped growth rates in all other major Scottish city
centres over the last five years.
18.
As at January 2003 there were 20 empty shops on Union Street totalling 17,701 sqm
floorspace. Only 2 of these vacant units (1% of vacant space) were in the intended
area for pedestrianisation between Market street and Bridge street. The total number
of vacancies remained the same as in 2002, though the amount of vacant floorspace
has increased by some 10,000 sqm (due to the addition of the Frasers department
store).
Pedestrian Survey
19.
A total of 521 face to face interviews were undertaken during the survey period from
interviewers positioned at key points all along Union Street. Almost three quarters of
all respondents were residents of Aberdeen City, with a further 16% resident
throughout Aberdeenshire. Key points taken from the survey include the following:
§
Respondents showed a general enthusiasm for the USP scheme, with over 90%
agreeing that USP would make the city centre a more attractive place to visit;
§
USP is likely to encourage an increase in the frequency and length of visit of
respondents;
§
USP is likely to have a modest positive impact on average spend per visit;
(iii)
§
Survey results do not suggest a major redistribution of pedestrians throughout the
city centre as a result of USP.
Business Survey
20.
A total of 38 interviews were carried out across all industry sectors in the city centre.
21.
Some 75% of firms interviewed across all sectors felt that the USP proposals
described would make Aberdeen City Centre a more attractive place to do business.
Only 49% of respondents, however, felt that the proposals would have any impact
(positive or negative) on the turnover of their own business.
22.
The results of the business survey suggest that the greatest impact from USP
proposals are likely to come among businesses in the retail, entertainment and
hospitality sectors. These sectors gave the highest positive ratings for the proposals
and were the only sectors to suggest that USP would have any impact on turnover.
Even among these three core sectors, retail businesses stand out as expecting the
greatest potential impact as a result of the proposals.
23.
For retail businesses, USP was expected to help increase turnover by attracting
pedestrians to spend more time and money in the city centre area and to choose to
shop in Aberdeen rather than other towns. The strongest potential impacts were felt
among businesses located directly along the proposed pedestrianised stretch.
24.
While many respondents among other sectors (such as business services,
manufacturing, oil and gas and other industries) felt that the proposals would make
the area more attractive in general, none of these businesses suggested that USP
would have any impact at all on their own turnover or employment.
25.
Across all sectors businesses felt that USP would have a positive impact on the ability
of staff and customers to move around the city centre by foot and would improve the
attractiveness of the city centre area. At the same time, respondents were
concerned over the impact of the proposals on their ability to easily access the city
centre by car and by public transport.
Impact of Union Street Pedestrianisation
26.
Table 1 summarises the likely impact of USP across the key sectors of the Aberdeen
economy. These estimates are based on the results of the pedestrian and business
surveys carried out as a part of the study.
(iv)
27.
Across the city centre study area as a whole, the impact of the USP proposals is
estimated to generate a 1% increase in turnover per annum across all sectors (an
increase of £22.5m pa over current levels), create 410 jobs and additional retained
incomes of £3.3 million pa. This is an increase in employment in the study area of
almost 1%. Table 1 shows that the retail, hotels & catering and entertainment
sectors are the main beneficiaries with other sectors not being affected.
28.
The retail sector is expected to experience the greatest impact as a result of USP
with a potential 4% increase in turnover per annum over current levels (some
£18.4m pa) being achieved as a result of expected increases in volume of
pedestrians, length of stay and spend per visit in the city centre after USP. This
increase is equivalent to an additional employment of up to 270 jobs pa if it is
assumed that all increased turnover is translated into employment.
29.
For Scotland as a whole, there is no net impact on employment as the proposals are
not likely to generate any additional expenditure that would not have occurred
elsewhere in Scotland. Increased retail turnover in the study area as a result of USP
is most likely to be gained at the expense of competitor retail locations in towns such
as Inverness, Dundee and Glasgow.
Table 1
Impact of USP by Sector
Change in Turnover, Employment and Income
Turnover
£m (% change)
Gross Impact within Study Area
Retail
£18.4m (4%)
Hotels and Catering
£2.2m (2%)
Entertainment/Visitor Attractions
£1.9m (2%)
Business Services
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and
other industries
Grand Total
£22.5m (1%)
Net Impact across Scotland
Retail
0
Hotels and Catering
0
0
Business Services
0
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and
0
other industries
Grand Total
0
Source: DTZ Pieda Consulting Estimates
(v)
Employment
(FTE)
Incomes
(£mn)
270
90
50
0
0
£2.2m
£0.6m
£0.5m
0
0
410
£3.3m
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
30.
USP is not expected to have a significant short term impact on the tourism industry
in the city. The proposals by themselves would not provide sufficient reason for new
visitors to choose Aberdeen over another potential destination. USP, however,
remains important to the sector as part of a range of developments needed to
improve the tourism offer available in Aberdeen
31.
USP is unlikely to provide significant benefit to the area in terms of attracting mobile
inward investment. Issues relating to the attractiveness of the city centre are not
key factors when such investors are choosing a location.
32.
Discussions with a number of property agents suggested that the USP proposals
would make Aberdeen more attractive as a destination for retailers, but that there
would not necessarily be an significant increase in the retail offer on Union Street.
The physical characteristics of property on Union Street are likely to limit the
opportunities for new retail developments in the area.
33.
Overall, USP proposals are not likely to influence the location of office and industrial
development in the city centre. The proposals could, however, influence the retail
rents achieved, and in particular achieve a ‘balance’ of rents between the north and
south side of Union street.
(vi)
1
INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND
1.1
The partners of the Aberdeen City Centre Partnership have developed an Urban
Realm Strategy (URS) to strengthen the role of Aberdeen as an important regional
centre and enhance the city centre as a location for business, living and working.
The strategy focuses on a compact civic heart with leading institutions, civic
presence and cultural drama surrounded by a series of vibrant business, shopping,
industry, transport and residential quarters within a policy context of enterprise and
development. The strategy will be achieved through five strategic regeneration
projects.
1.2
One of the five key regeneration projects is the development of Union Street to
become one of the finest shopping promenades in Europe. It is hoped to achieve
this through a number of initiatives focussing on:
§
Redressing the balance of movement along the street in favour of pedestrians;
§
Upgrading the environmental quality of the area, maximising the impact of green
spaces;
§
Developing an uncluttered streetscape which restores the integrity of the street;
§
Promoting the street as an area for a range of social and cultural activities; and
§
Encouraging the quality of the street’s retail offer.
1.3
A key part of this regeneration project is the proposal to close Union Street to all
traffic between Market Street and Bridge Street. The pedestrianisation of Union
Street between these points is permitted by the integrated transport proposals which
comprise the Modern Transport Strategy (MTS) 1. The largest element of the MTS is
the Western Peripheral Route (WPR) which, amongst other things, is intended to
remove some traffic from the city centre.
1.4
The pedestrianisation of this section of Union Street is likely to have an impact on
the city centre and it is therefore necessary to consider the effect of these proposals
on economic activity in the City Centre.
1
The Modern Transport Strategy has been developed by NESTRANS (a partnership
comprising Aberdeen City Council, Aberdeenshire Council, Scottish Enterprise Grampian and
Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce) and is a strategy for transport in the North
East.
1
STUDY OBJECTIVES
1.5
DTZ Pieda Consulting was appointed by Aberdeen City Council (ACC) to undertake a
Part 1 Economic Activity and Location Impacts (EALI) assessment as required by the
Scottish Transport Appraisal Guidance (STAG) of the proposals to pedestrianise
Union Street between Market Street and Bridge Street.
1.6
The Part 1 EALI requires an assessment in qualitative terms of:
§
§
REPORT STRUCTURE
1.7
1.8
The remainder of the report is organised as follows:
§
Section 2 sets out the requirements of STAG, considers the potential impacts of
Union Street pedestrianisation (USP) and provides an overview of the methodology
adopted in this study;
§
Section 3 provides an overview of the economy of the city centre;
§
Section 4 sets out the results of the pedestrian survey;
§
Section 5 sets out the results of the business survey; and,
§
Section 6 presents the impact of pedestrianisation proposals for Union Street.
The Part 1 STAG appraisal summary tables are provided in Appendix A.
2
2
STAG AND METHODOLOGY
INTRODUCTION
2.1
This section provides an overview of the requirements of a STAG compatible
appraisal, before outlining the mechanisms through which the economic impact of
Union Street pedestrianisation are likely to be felt. Our general approach to the
study is also provided.
STAG APPRAISALS
2.2
2.3
The objective of an EALI assessment is to capture the impact of the proposed project
on the local and national economy in terms of income and employment. Transport
projects can affect economic development at the national, regional or local level.
These potential impacts can be divided into those on overall economic activity and
those of locations. STAG guidance requires that EALIs are reported in two ways:
§
As a net impact at the Scottish level; and
§
In terms of its gross components which will distinguish impacts on particular areas
and/or groups in society.
A two stage approach is required when examining EALIs with Part 1 (which is the
purpose of this report) of the appraisal process identifying in qualitative terms:
§
§
UNION STREET PEDESTRIANISATION
2.4
Union Street is the main street in the city centre and links the main shopping centres
– the Trinity Centre, St. Nicholas Centre and the Bon-Accord Centre. Running
east/west it is four lanes wide, with two of these lanes bus lanes. It is proposed that
Union Street is fully pedestrianised between Bridge Street and Market Street and this
is shown in Figure 2.1.
3
Figure 2.1: Union Street Pedestrianisation Proposals
4
2.5
At present, there is a conflict on Union Street between pedestrians and vehicles. The
volume of traffic travelling through the prime retail area diminishes the shopping
experience which, in turn, affects the competitive strength of the City as a retail
destination for the North East. The poor conditions for pedestrians affect location al
decisions and deter potential users. The unpleasant central city experience can
damage the City’s image and desirability as a destination.
2.6
The overall aim of the proposal is to help improve the quality of the city centre
environment, making it a vibrant and more attractive place to live, work and visit.
Other changes would include the introduction of more street furniture such as seats,
shelters and plants; and the introduction of on-street café’s, coffee kiosks and other
facilities.
2.7
Although it is only a section of Union Street that is proposed to be pedestrianised,
the impacts may be felt across the wider city centre area. We have therefore
defined the area of impact using postcode sectors. The area comprises five postcode
sectors – AB10 1, AB10 6, AB11 5, AB11 6, AB25 1- and these are shown on Figure
2.2. The area of impact is shown by the thick red line. Also shown is the boundary
(in blue) of the area covered by the City Centre Partnership. The area of impact for
this study is broader than the city centre partnership to allow the impact on all
sectors of the economy to be examined. For example, the inclusion of AB10 6 will
enable the analysis to consider the potential impact of the proposals on the business
district.
Figure 2.2: Postcode Defined Study Area
5
POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF PEDESTRIANISATION
2.8
The spread of pedestrianisation among town and city centres in the UK has been
dramatic over the past 20 to 30 years. By 1995, for instance, some 37% of the
prime shopping streets in the UK were pedestrianised compared to less than 5% in
1971. In many cases the main drivers for these changes have been environmental
factors – improving amenity and safety for shoppers, less pollution and the creation
of a more attractive streetscape – but it is equally important to consider the potential
impacts of schemes on local traders and businesses.
2.9
Evidence gathered from the experience of other towns and cities following
pedestrianisation indicates that the schemes may have both positive and negative
impacts on local businesses. The following provides a summary of key findings from
research into the experience of pedestrianisation schemes carried out in other towns
and cities across Europe. A full list of references used here is provided in Appendix
E.
Impact of Improving the Attractiveness of Town Centres – Janne Sandahl
& Christer Lindh, 1995
2.10
This Swedish study undertook a ranking scheme to indicate the economic and other
benefits of initiatives to improve the attractiveness of six towns. The range of
initiatives which were examined included pedestrianisation, bus routes, parking, shop
refurbishment schemes, building repairs, streetscape improvements and town centre
management. Measures used to rank towns included retail turnover, rent potential,
capitalised profit, attraction of location and visitor attitudes.
2.11
Results from this analysis indicated that the town which undertook the most
comprehensive scheme involving all of the initiatives but particularly
pedestrianisation and bus route improvements, was ranked first on all measures.
The town which ranked lowest on all measures had not carried out any town centre
improvements at all. As such, there appeared to be a strong positive correlation
between the number and extent of improvements and the ranking position of each
town.
6
Impact of Pedestrainisation and Traffic Calming on Retailing, Carmen
Hass-Klau, 1993
2.12
This review of evidence on pedestrianisation examined findings from research in
Germany and the UK. The earliest evaluations undertaken in Germany were based
on simple pedestrian flow counts with the majority of the towns showing significant
increases in pedestrian flows of 20%-40%. Similar results have also been recorded
in studies in Vienna. However, retailers expressed concerns that pedestrian flows do
not say sufficient about the spending power of pedestrians and their actual
expenditure in shops.
2.13
The review notes that other German research monitored the impact of pedestrian
schemes on retail turnover, again with very positive results. Allowing for growth of
the German economy at the time of the research, businesses inside the pedestrian
zones showed higher rates of growth than those outside. At the same time, costs
increased more significantly for businesses in the pedestrian zone than for those
outside (not surprising given that increase turnover generally results in increased
rental levels as demand for prime space grows). When costs are taken into account,
businesses in the zone still performed better than those outside.
2.14
Further, surveys of businesses in Germany have shown that the majority felt that the
schemes had a positive impact on their turnover. Those towns with the longest
history of pedestrianisation schemes showed the highest levels of endorsement from
retailers.
2.15
With reference to surveys carried out to measure the impact of pedestrianisation in
UK, the review notes that:
§
54% of businesses in Durham four years after pedestrianisation reported 52% in
trade,
§
Covent Garden in 1987 reported increased turnover in 60% of businesses and local
estate agents reported that ‘the traffic scheme had probably resulted in higher
pedestrian flows and thus higher rents and property values’.
§
In a study of 6 towns in 1991, (Poole, Fareham, Chichester, Kings Lynn, Oxford &
Reading) all classes of pedestrianised streets showed higher rateable value increases
than those in nearby non-pedestrianised streets.
The pedestrianised streets with
buses showed only very small increases compared with traffic streets.
§
Leicester in 1993 reported a statistically significant correlation between the motorised
traffic flow and proportion of empty shop units (higher traffic flow, higher no. vacant
units).
7
2.16
Overall the review concludes that a well designed pedestrianisation scheme can
result in an increase in the number of visitors to an area. Increases of 20-40% in
the first year are not unusual.
After a transitional period, retail turnovers are
generally expected to increase.
Taking the Pulse of Pedestrianised Streets, Martyn Chase, 1994
2.17
This review refers to research carried out on behalf of the English Historic Towns
Forum. In a survey of 8 towns, it was reported that 79% of those surveyed
considered pedestrianisaton of streets to be an important issue. The review reports
that following pedestrianisation towns become more popular to shoppers and tourists
and that this is likely to result in increases in pedestrian flow, retail turnovers and
property values.
2.18
The review further suggests that the quality of shopping improves after a street is
pedestrianised. One downside noted is that pedestrianisation schemes can also limit
type of retailers in area to main high street retailers rather than local traders as
result of rental increases. Overall, it is concluded that the best pedestrian priority
schemes are those where at least some traffic is allowed and where not all uses are
retail ones.
A Study of Economic Impact of Pedestrianisation and its Relevance to
Leicester, Les Newby, 1992
2.19
This report provides an overview of previous research carried out in Europe and
elsewhere. Reference is made to an OECD Survey 2 which reports that in a survey of
105 pedestrianised zones:
§
72% enjoyed a marked decrease in air pollution;
§
67% of zones reported increased pedestrian flows;
§
49% reported increased trade, mostly of +25%;
§
Only 2% showed any reduction in trade;
§
The study concludes, “pedestrianisation is an economic success. A majority of a
large number of traders asked about changes in turnover after a precinct was created
believed it had increased”.
2
OECD, Results of a Questionnaire Survey on Pedestrian Zones, OECD, 1978
8
2.20
Other work referenced in the review includes a study 3 which conclude that the zones
with total exclusion of traffic were the most successful and zones which continued to
allow bus access showed the lowest increase in economic performance. Allowing bus
access to but not through pedestrian areas appears to be the best solution.
2.21
Finally, the review cites a Quality Streets Report4 which presents the findings from
studies across 8 European Countries. The cities reviewed employed a range of
pedestrianisation, parking control and traffic calming measures.
This study
concludes that:
§
In each city public transport use increased and car use either stabilised or reduced
following introduction of pedestrian schemes and traffic restraint
§
Schemes resulted in pedestrian safety , visual environment and pollution
§
Essential deliveries and emergency vehicles were found to move more freely
§
“ The majority of shops in pedestrian streets world-wide have experienced greater
turnover”
§
Traffic restraint has encouraged new forms of street activity, theatre etc.
The Pedestrianisation Myth – Erdman Lewis, December 1999
2.22
This study examined the impact of pedestrianisation schemes on the profitability of
businesses using the rents that retailers pay as a measure.
2.23
Between May 1987 and May 1994, rents in prime pedestrianised streets rose by
4.1% on average and in non pedestrianised areas by 4.0%. This compares with
6.0% for prime shopping centres. As such, the study suggests that pedestrian
streets achieve no higher rental growth rates than streets with direct vehicular
access. This suggests that retailers do not trade more profitably in pedestrian
streets since if they did, rental levels would have grown more quickly (assumes a
direct correlation between increase in sales and increase in rents).
2.24
The study questions whether in reality pedestrianisation schemes can be justified
purely on economic grounds. Overall, the study reports that pedestrianisation
schemes used in isolation are not likely to improve vitality and viability of city
centres. Such schemes, however, are usually accompanied by a wider range of
measures (environmental and landscape improvements etc). For pedestrianisation to
contribute to town centre commercial regeneration, it should form part of a wider
package of measures which are likely to benefit consumers, traders and local
authorities.
3
4
Andrew Lynch, Planning, no 925, 5th July 1991
TEST, Quality Streets, TEST 1989
9
Conclusion
2.25
2.26
This brief review of research into the experience of pedestrianisation schemes carried
out in other areas has indicated a number of examples in which such schemes have
had a positive impact on the local economy. Specific benefits noted in a number of
studies include:
§
More attractive area for visitors;
§
Improved pedestrian safety;
§
Increases in pedestrian flows in the area; and,
§
Increased turnover for local retailers.
However, a number of studies also note potential negative impacts or mitigating
factors. These include:
§
Schemes can limit the type of retailers in an area to main high street retailers only as
rental increases price local traders out of the area;
§
Increased pedestrian flows do not necessarily imply an increase in actual expenditure
by shoppers;
§
Increases in turnover may be mitigated by increased costs (e.g. as a result of more
complex or restricted delivery schedules). As a result, the profitability of retailers in
pedestrianised zones may not rise.
2.27
Overall, it is likely that the net impact of a pedestrianisation scheme in a specific area
will depend upon a number of factors including quality of accompanying streetscape
improvements, the competitive position of the retail area, general economic trends,
overall town centre policy, degree of accessibility by public transport & cars, detailed
design and population density within walking distance of the pedestrian zone.
2.28
The assessment of the impact of the Union Street pedestrianisation proposals will
need to address:
§
The extent to which shoppers will spend more time and money in the city centre;
§
The extent to which improved performance on the pedestrianised stretch of Union
Street is offset by poorer performance on the non-pedestrianised stretch;
§
The extent to which the retail mix in the area will be changed i.e. smaller
independent traders moving away from the city centre;
§
How retailers and businesses will react to the proposals i.e. will they invest in new
facilities;
10
§
What difference the proposals will make to Aberdeen City Centre as a place to work
and do business; and
§
If the proposals will assist the City in attracting an increased number of tourists or
inward investment.
METHODOLOGY
2.29
The approach to the study has involved a combination of desk research,
consultations, a business survey and a survey of pedestrians on Union Street. Each
of these components is described below.
2.30
Desk Research: Through desk research the study area for the project was defined.
Background information on the performance of the study area and the Aberdeen City
Council area was analysed.
2.31
Consultations: During the course of the study consultations were held with a
number of organisations to obtain information which is relevant to the analysis and
to discuss the potential impact of the pedestrianisation proposals. Consultations
were held with:
2.32
§
Aberdeen City Council: City Development;
§
Aberdeen City Centre Partnership;
§
Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce;
§
Federation of Small Businesses;
§
Aberdeenshire and Grampian Tourist Board;
§
Stewart Milne Group;
§
Paul Gee and Co.; and
§
FG Burnett.
Business Survey: A significant element of the study was face to face interviews
with businesses throughout the study area and across all sectors of the Aberdeen
city centre economy. In total, 38 interviews were undertaken across the following
sectors:
§
Retail
18
§
Hotels and Catering
5
§
Business Services
6
11
2.33
§
Entertainment
5
§
Energy and Water
1
§
Manufacturing and other industries
3
The questionnaire for the survey is included at Appendix B and covered the following
topics:
§
Background information and the nature of the business;
§
Recent business performance;
§
Customers and markets;
§
Current perceptions of Aberdeen City Centre; and
§
Pedestrianisation proposals.
2.34
Pedestrian Survey: A survey of 500 pedestrian users of Union Street was
undertaken between Monday 28th July and Friday 8th August. The interviews were
conducted on a face-to-face basis and the questionnaire is also included in Appendix
B.
2.35
The information obtained from the desk research, consultations and surveys was
used to:
§
Assess in qualitative terms the impact of pedestrianisation on the Aberdeen City
Centre economy;
§
Provide estimates of the gross income and employment impact by sector (where
possible);
§
Assess the net impact as the Scottish level; and
§
Provide STAG appraisal summary tables.
12
3
ECONOMIC PROFILE
INTRODUCTION
3.1
This section sets out an overview of the city centre economy (defined in para 2.7)
with reference to the wider Aberdeen City Council area and Scotland where
appropriate. The section considers the trends in population, employment, tourism
and vacancies/rents.
POPULATION
3.2
The population of the study area was estimated at 24,200 people in 2001, or 11% of
the population of the Aberdeen City Council area. This is shown in Table 3.1. The
area contains a high concentration of 15-29 year olds (40% of the total population),
likely driven by a high student population, but has relatively lower proportions in
older age groups (45+) when compared with the City Council and Scottish average.
Table 3.1
Population and Age Structure, 2001
Location
Study Area
Aberdeen City
Scotland
Population
24,191
211,910
5,064,200
0-14
8%
15%
18%
Age Group (% of total population)
15-29
30-44
45-59
40%
25%
13%
24%
23%
18%
19%
23%
19%
60+
13%
20%
21%
Source: General Registrars Office, Scotland
3.3
Since 1999 the population of the study area has grown by over 1,000 (4.6%)
compared to a reduction in the population of Aberdeen City of almost 3.5%. The
growth has been concentrated in the 15-29 age group and may reflect increasing
student numbers at the University or more students staying within the city centre
area.
3.4
Forecasts prepared by General Register’s Office Scotland (GROS) suggest that the
population of Aberdeen City is estimated to fall by almost 9% over 1998-2016
compared to a decline in population of 1% across Scotland as a whole. This is
shown in Table 3.2. The Table also indicates projected changes in the age structure
of the population. Over the period the number of people aged under 45 living in
Aberdeen is expected to drop steadily alongside increases in the older age groups.
13
3.5
It should be noted that these forecasts are slightly at odds with the population
forecasts published by Aberdeen City Council and Aberdeenshire. This document
“Strategic Forecasts for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire, 2000-2016” 5 forecasts a
more modest reduction in population in Aberdeen City over 2000-2016 of only 1.4%
(i.e. population is projected to fall from 211,250 in 2000 to 208,320 in 2016).
Table 3.2
Population Projections by Age Band, 1998-2016 (000s)
Aberdeen City LA Area
1998
2016
% Change
1998
0-14
36.4
27.3
-25.0
950.6
15-29
45.9
41.4
-9.8
1,019.8
30-44
52.1
30.0
-42.4
1,175.9
45-59
36.9
48.6
31.6
932.4
60-75
27.7
31.4
13.3
699.0
75+
13.9
16.0
15.8
342.3
All Ages
213.1
194.8
-8.6
5,120.0
Scotland
2016
818.9
940.5
929.7
1,148.8
827.5
412.2
5,077.6
% Change
-13.9
-7.8
-20.9
23.2
18.4
20.4
-0.8
Source: GRO Scotland, 1998 based sub-national population projections
EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE
3.6
Employment in the study area in 2001 was estimated 43,500 employee jobs,
representing 26% of employment in the Aberdeen City Council area. This is shown
in Table 3.3. Table 3.3 also shows the location quotients for each industry in the
study area and City Council areas. A location quotient (LQ) measures the extent to
which an industry in an economy is over or under represented relative to a
benchmark economy which in this case is Scotland. A LQ of over 1 indicates overrepresentation while a LQ under one indicates under-representation
3.7
Key points can be noted as follows:
§
Two industries - banking and finance (33% of study area employment) and
distribution (including retailing), hotels and restaurants (26%) – account for more
than half of all employment in the city centre area;
§
While these industries are also significant employers within Aberdeen City Council
area as a whole, they are of particular importance within the study area;
§
Aberdeen city as a whole is significantly over-represented in the Oil and Gas Sector.
Within the study area the sector also has a high proportion of employment relative to
Scotland as whole. However, the city centre area accounts for less than 10% of all
direct Oil and Gas sector employment located in Aberdeen City as a whole; and,
§
Manufacturing industries account for only 4% of employment in the study area
compared to 9% across the city region and 13% throughout Scotland as a whole.
5
“Strategic Forecasts for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire, 2000-2016”, Autumn 2001
14
Table 3.3
Employment Structure, 2001
Industry
Study Area
% of total
employment
100
0.3%
1,100
2.6%
1,900
4.3%
1,400
3.2%
11,300
26.0%
0.20
1.34
0.34
0.64
1.11
Aberdeen City Total
Size
% of total
LQ
employment
600
0.4%
0.21
16,000
9.7%
5.00
15,000
9.1%
0.72
8,700
5.3%
1.05
33,700
20.4%
0.87
8.4%
32.9%
1.50
1.92
12,000
35,700
7.3%
21.6%
1.30
1.26
17.2%
0.64
36,100
21.9%
0.82
5.1%
100%
0.92
7,000
1.00 164,900
4.2%
100%
0.75
1.00
Size
Agriculture and fishing
Energy and water
Manufacturing
Construction
Distribution, hotels and
restaurants
Transport and communications
3,600
Banking, finance and insurance,
14,300
etc
Public administration, education & 7,500
health
Other services
2,200
Total
43,500
LQ
Source: Office for National Statistics © CROWN COPYRIGHT (from NOMIS)
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS
3.8
Table 3.4 provides a summary of employment forecasts for the City Council area
over 2000 to 2016. Overall, employment in Aberdeen City is forecast to fall by 1,000
(0.7%). This decline is largely driven by the forecast loss of some 5,600 jobs in the
oil sector and the loss of 1,300 jobs in the manufacturing sector (particularly in fish
processing and paper and paper products).
Table 3.4
Employment Forecasts, Aberdeen City (000s)
2000
2016
Non-Oil:
107.4
109.7
primary
0.3
0.2
manufacturing
12.0
10.7
construction
7.8
8.0
services
87.3
90.9
Oil
35.2
29.6
Self Employment
9.0
11.3
Total
151.6
150.6
Change
+2.3
-0.1
-1.3
+0.2
+3.6
-5.6
+2.3
-1.0
% Change
+2.1
-33.3
-10.8
+2.6
+4.1
-15.9
+25.6
-0.7
Source: Appendix 2, Strategic Forecasts for Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire 2000 – 2016, Autumn 2001
3.9
Table 3.5 provides more detail in terms of the forecast change in employment in the
service sector. Growth is expected to be concentrated in sectors such as retail
distribution and financial services, employment in both of which is of particular
importance in the study area.
15
Table 3.5
Aberdeen City Employment Forecasts for Service Sector, 2000 – 2016 (000s)
Sectors
2000
2016
change
%change
Electricity, water & gas
1.5
1.4
-0.1
-10.0
Wholesale distribution
6.0
6.5
+0.5
8.3
Retail distribution
16.0
18.4
+2.4
15.0
Hotel & catering
10.0
10.3
+0.3
3.0
Transport & communication
8.3
8.5
+0.2
2.4
Financial & other services
11.0
12.6
+1.6
14.5
Public sector & armed forces
29.0
27.0
-2.0
-6.9
Social & personal services
5.5
6.3
+0.8
14.5
Total Service Sector
87.3
90.9
+3.6
4.1
Source: Aberdeen City Council – Structure Plan Area Forecasts 2000 - 2016
3.10
Information on travel to work patterns from the 2001 Census will are not yet
available. Travel to work patterns from the 1991 census demonstrate that 70% of
Aberdeen City’s workforce are living within the City Council boundary, while the
remainder travel from further afield. This highlights the City’s role as the major
employment centre for the North East. Results from the 1991 Census for Dundee
show that 80% of the workforce are resident within the City boundary.
STRUCTURE OF BUSINESSES
3.11
Table 3.6 shows the number and distribution of businesses by sizeband for the city
centre study area, Aberdeen City Council area and Scotland. Some 75% of
businesses in the study area have 1-10 employees, marginally lower than the City
Council area average of 76% and the national average of 79%. The Aberdeen City
Council area also contains a relatively high proportion of larger businesses than
Scotland as a whole i.e. 6.2% of businesses in the Council area have more than 50
employees compared to only 4.5% in Scotland.
Table 3.6
Number of Businesses by Sizeband
Total Number
1-10
employees
Scotland
165,900
79%
Aberdeen City
9,900
76%
Study Area
3,200
75%
11-49
employees
16%
17%
20%
50-199
employees
3.7%
5.1%
4.3%
200
employees
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
Source: Office for National Statistics  CROWN COPYRIGHT (from NOMIS)
3.12
The distribution of businesses across the main industries is shown in Table 3.7. The
majority of businesses in the city centre study area are concentrated in the key
sectors of banking and finance, wholesale/retail and hotels and catering. The
banking and finance industry also accounts for the highest proportion (34%) of the
city centre’s large businesses (those with 200+ employees), closely followed by the
public sector with 29%.
16
Table 3.7
Number of Businesses in the Study Area, by Industry
Industry
Number o f enterprises
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
48
Manufacturing
220
Construction
112
Electricity, gas and water supply
3
Wholesale/retail distribution; repair
710
Hotels and catering
304
Transport storage and communications
97
Financial and business services
1,237
Public services,admin and defence
103
Health and social work
121
Other service activities
263
Total
3,218
% of Total
1%
7%
3%
0%
22%
9%
3%
38%
3%
4%
8%
100%
Source: Office for National Statistics © CROWN COPYRIGHT (from NOMIS)
AVERAGE EARNINGS
3.13
Data on average earnings are available from the New Earnings Survey. The latest
data for 2002 show average earnings in the Aberdeen City Centre area to be £505
per week compared to £427 per week in Scotland. Hence, Aberdeen City is a
relatively high income area with average earning some 18% above the Scottish
average. Indeed, the New Earnings Survey shows average weekly earnings in
Aberdeen City to be the highest across all Scottish local authorities.
UNEMPLOYMENT
3.14
Unemployment in the Aberdeen City Council area was recorded at 2,640 claimants in
July 2003, equivalent to a rate of 1.9%. This rate is well below the Scottish average
of 3.3%. Some 370 of these claimants were resident within the city centre area,
representing 14% of total unemployment across the city. As such, the city centre
accounts for a higher proportion of total unemployment claimants than of resident
population in Aberdeen.
17
TOURISM
3.15
Tourism data on the number of visitors and their expenditure are not collected for
the Aberdeen City Council area – the data are only available for the Aberdeen and
Grampian area which covers the north east of Scotland. To provide some context,
the number of visitors and their expenditure is shown in Table 3.8 for the wider
Aberdeen and Grampian area.
Table 3.8
Tourism Visits and Expenditure
Aberdeen and Grampian
2000
2002
Visits (m)
UK Residents
1.9
1.8
Overseas Residents
0.17
0.14
Total
2.07
1.94
Expenditure (£m)
UK Residents
280
399
Overseas Residents
45
47
Total
325
446
Scotland
2000
2002
19.0
1.7
20.7
18.5
1.59
20.09
3,699
817
4,516
3,682
811
4,493
Source: Key Facts of Tourism to Scotland 2000 and 2002
3.16
Table 3.8 shows that the volume of visits to both the Aberdeen and Grampian area
and Scotland as a whole fell over 2000-2002. The reduction in visitors was greater
in the Aberdeen and Grampian area (-6.3%) than in Scotland (-2.9%). The data
show a very substantial increase in expenditure of UK residents in the Aberdeen and
Grampian area which raises concerns about the accuracy of the information. Since it
has not been possible to determine which (if either) of these data points is correct
we would recommend caution in using either in any further calculations
3.17
Two tourist attractions in the city centre registered amongst the top 6 in the
Aberdeen and Grampian tourist board area in 2002: Aberdeen Art Gallery (181,229)
and Aberdeen Maritime museum (83,059).
3.18
The 1999/2000 Grampian Visitor Survey asked their main reason for being in the
area and what activities they were undertaking. The results found that visitors to
the City of Aberdeen were far more likely to go shopping than was the case in
Grampian as a whole (38% of respondents in the city versus 24% in Grampian),
while 10% of the City respondents said that shopping was their main reason for
visiting – this was more than double the regional average.
3.19
The survey also found that average daily shopping expenditure in the City (£9.41)
was 18% higher than in the Grampian in 1999/2000, but average total daily
expenditure was lower. This was largely due to the relatively low accommodation
spend of the City visitors (42% of whom were staying with friends or relatives).
18
CRIME
3.20
Data from Grampian Police show that 40% of all drug crimes in Aberdeen taking
place in the city centre (2000 monitoring report). With more than 60 cameras in the
city centre, CCTV has become a major deterrent to crime in recent years, particularly
in relation to repeat offenders and shoplifters. During 2000, the Grampian Police
CCTV unit was involved in more than 500 incidents per month and has developed a
good relationship with local businesses.
Table 3.9
Crime in the City Centre, November 1997 – 1998
Type of Crime
Damage to Property
Drug Offences
Crimes against the Person
Sexual Crimes
Property Theft
In the City Centre
837
515
205
28
604
In Aberdeen
4236
1294
3241
116
7379
City Centre Crime as
% of Total
20%
40%
6%
24%
8%
Source: Grampian Police - from City Centre Monitoring Report 2000
RETAILING IN ABERDEEN CITY CENTRE
3.21
As the analysis above demonstrates retailing represents one of the key economic
activities carried out in Aberdeen city centre, accounting for around 7,000 employee
jobs, over 700 businesses and representing a key employment growth sector for the
region over the coming 10 to 15 years. Given that the USP proposals are focused
directly at the heart of the main shopping district in the city, therefore, this section
provides a brief overview of recent market indicators for the sector.
Retail Rents
3.22
Retail floorspace in the city centre in 2002 comprised 11,900 square metres of
convenience goods floorspace (around 10% of the total available across the city) and
some 200,600 square metres of comparison goods floorspace (around three quarters
of that available across the city).
3.23
As at April 2003 rents in the city’s retail zone A were estimated at £165 per square
foot. This represented an increase of 38% over the past 5 years and is illustrated in
Table 3.10. As can be seen, growth in rental levels in Aberdeen city have
outstripped growth rates in all other major Scottish city centres over the period
shown.
19
Table 3.10
Retail Rental Levels and Growth
(£/square foot in zone A)
1998
Aberdeen
120
Dundee
95
Inverness
95
Glasgow
185
Edinburgh
225
2003
165
105
115
220
220
% change
38%
11%
21%
19%
-2%
Source: Ryden Scottish Property Review
Retail Developments
3.24
Table 3.11 details the key retail developments in Aberdeen City centre. Within the
city centre area the four main covered shopping centres provide around 850,000
square feet of floorspace located in key positions around the main Union Street
thoroughfare. The proposed Union Square retail and leisure park (due to open in
2006) represents a major addition to the retail offer in the city centre. The centre is
expected to provide an additional 550,000 square feet of space in a location south of
Union Street towards the outskirts of the study area considered here.
3.25
Outside the core city centre, a total of 670,000 square feet of space is distributed
across a number of retail parks. These parks provide space for largely bulky goods
retailers, compared to the broader mix of shopping available in the city centre.
Table 3.11
Major Retail Developments in Aberdeen City Region
Name
Type
Opened
Anchor Tenant
Size
(sq ft)
City Centre
Bon Accord Centre
Shopping Centre
1990
475,000
Shopping Centre
Shopping Centre
1985
1998
Boots, Burton, John Lewis,
Woolworths
Marks and Spencer
French Connection, The Pier
Shopping Centre
Retail/Leisure
1985
Proposed
2006
Argos, Debenhams, Littlewoods
Next, Odeon
200,000
550,000
Rest of Aberdeen City
Berryden Retail Park
Retail Park
n/a
80,000
Boulevaard Retail Park
Centrepoint Retail Park
Retail Park
Retail Park
2003
n/a
Garthdee Retail Park
Kittybrewster Retail Park
Retail Park
Retail Park
n/a
1990
Argos, Harveys, JJB Sports,
Mothercare World, PC World
Big W
JJB Sports, Mecca Bingo, Rosebys,
Toys R Us
Boots, Curry's
Carpetright, Comet, Curry's, DFS,
Halfords, Land of Leather,
Powerhouse, TK Maxx, Time,
Topps Tiles
Allied Carpets, Focus, Homebase
St Nicholas Centre
The Academy Shopping
Centre
Trinity Shopping Centre
Union Square
Portlethen Retail Park
Retail Park
Source: Property Intelligence plc
n/a
20
96,000
80,030
226,500
96,184
35,000
133,704
95,457
Vacancies
3.26
The most recent Union St. vacancy survey (2002) indicates that:
§
As at January 2003 there were 20 empty shops on Union Street totalling 17,701 sqm
floorspace. Only 2 of these vacant units (1% of vacant space) were in the intended
area for pedestrianisation between Market street and Bridge street.
§
The total number of vacancies remained the same as the previous year though the
amount of vacant floorspace has increased by some 10,000 sqm (due to the addition
of the Frasers department store).
§
The amount of vacant space on Union St. for which there is no known interest totals
2,025 sqm, equal to 11% of the total vacant space. This represents a marked
improvement on the situation in 2001, when there was no known interest for around
a third of the total vacant floorspace.
§
Of the 20 vacant properties, 16 have been empty for more than 12 months, while 6
have been vacant for more than 3 years (this figure includes the former Energy
Centre/Gas showroom and Poundstretcher sites which were fire damaged in 1998).
21
4
PEDESTRIAN SURVEY
INTRODUCTION
4.1
This section provides a summary of results taken from the survey of pedestrian users
of Union Street carried out between 28th July and 8th August 2003. A more detailed
breakdown of results is provided in Appendix C. A copy of the questionnaire form
used is also provided in Appendix D.
PEDESTRIAN PROFILE
4.2
A total of 521 face to face interviews were undertaken during the survey period from
interviewers positioned at key points all along Union Street. Almost three quarters of
all respondents were residents of Aberdeen City (see Table 4.1), with a further 16%
resident throughout Aberdeenshire. Car borne visitors to the city centre accounted
for 30% of all respondents. A further 43% of visitors had travelled to the city centre
by bus.
Table 4.1
Area of Residence by Gender
(number of responses)
Aberdeen City Centre
Aberdeenshire
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total responses
Male
51
101
30
5
13
200
Female
70
165
54
8
24
321
Total
121
266
84
13
37
521
% of total
responses
23%
51%
16%
2%
7%
100%
Source: DTZ Pieda Consulting Pedestrian Survey
4.3
Table 4.2 provides a summary of responses showing the main reasons cited for
visiting Aberdeen City Centre. Shopping for clothing and shoes was the most cited
main reason for visiting the city centre accounting for a quarter of all respondents.
Altogether almost 60% of respondents were visiting the city centre to make general
shopping trips or to use services such as Banks or Building Societies. While only 1%
of respondents cited visiting restaurants and cafes as their main reason for being in
the city centre some 28% mentioned this as a secondary activity they would be
undertaking during their visit. Only 12% of respondents were in the area because of
work or for business trips.
22
Table 4.2
Main Reason for Visiting Aberdeen City Centre
(number of responses)
No.Responses
Shop for food and groceries
68
Shop for clothing and shoes
138
Shop for other non-food items
70
Using services (banks, travel agents etc)
31
Visiting restaurants, cafes, pubs etc
6
Work in town centre
51
Business trip
12
Social/leisure reasons
61
Passing through/window shopping
47
Other
37
TOTAL
521
% of responses
13%
26%
13%
6%
1%
10%
2%
12%
9%
7%
100%
4.4
Over half of all respondents to the survey claimed to visit the city centre up to three
times a week (27% visit the area every day). Only 10% visit the area less than once
per month. In terms of length of stay, the most common response was an average
stay in the area of between 2 and 4 hours. Only 4% of respondents typically spend
less than 1 hour in the area during a visit to the city centre. These results suggest
that the pedestrian survey represents a good sample of regular users of Union Street
and its surrounding areas.
4.5
Figure 4.1 illustrates the area of the city centre most used by respondents during
their visits to Aberdeen. In this analysis the city centre has been broken up into
three zones defined broadly as follows (a detailed map showing each Zone is
provided as part of Appendix B):
4.6
§
Zone 1: Union Street East, covering Bridge Street to Castlegate and including both
north and south sides of Union St;
§
Zone 2: City Centre North, covering area from Belmont Street to King Street and
including St Nicholas Centre, Bon Accord Centre and The Academy;
§
Zone 3: Union Street West, covering the area from Bridge Street to Holborn Street.
As Figure 4.1 illustrates, Zone 2, including three of the city’s main shopping centres,
was the most commonly used area of the city centre, accounting for over 55% of
respondents. Some 27% of respondents used Zone 1 most often, which covers the
proposed pedestrianised stretch, while only 18% of respondents cited the west end
of Union St as the area they visited most often during their stay in the city centre.
23
Figure 4.1
Which area of the City Centre is used most during visits?
60%
55%
% of responses
50%
40%
27%
30%
18%
20%
10%
0%
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Average spend per visit to the city centre was estimated at some £52.64 per
respondent with the largest amounts being spent on items such as clothing and
shoes. As Figure 4.2 shows, however, this average figure is significantly distorted by
a relatively small number of respondents expecting to spend quite large sums during
their visit. The distribution of spending is skewed towards the lower end of the value
spectrum with around a third of respondents spending less than £10 in total during
their visit to the area. In this case the median value is perhaps a more meaningful
indicator of the expenditure of an average visitor to the city centre. Median total
spend per visit to the area is estimated at £25 per respondent.
Figure 4.2
Distribution of survey respondents by amount spent in city centre
25%
19%
20%
% of responses
4.7
15%
21%
19%
12%
9%
10%
10%
8%
5%
2%
0%
Nothing
£1-£10
£11-£25
£26-£50
24
£51-£75
£76-£100
£101£250
£251+
IMPACT OF USP
4.8
Overall, respondents to the pedestrian survey expressed a general enthusiasm for
the USP proposals with over 90% agreeing that the scheme would make Aberdeen
city centre a more attractive place to visit. Only 3% of respondents thought that the
proposals would make the city centre a less attractive place to visit. A summary of
responses is shown in Table 4.3.
Table 4.3
Impact of USP Proposals on Attractiveness of City Centre
No.
Yes - much more attractive
Yes - more attractive
Neither more nor less attractive
No - less attractive
No - much less attractive
Total responses
Responses
230
244
31
9
7
521
% of responses
44%
47%
6%
2%
1%
100%
4.9
Figures 4.3 and 4.4 summarise the likely impact of USP proposals on respondents
frequency of visit and length of stay in the city centre. While in both cases the most
common single response was that USP would have no impact, some 50% of
respondents thought that the scheme would encourage them to increase the
frequency of their visits to the area at least slightly. Similarly, 48% of respondents
thought that USP would result in them spending more time in the city centre during
their visits to the area. Only 2% of respondents thought the proposals would result
in fewer or shorter visits to the city centre.
4.10
The 5 most commonly cited factors which would encourage respondents to visit the
city centre more often included:
§
Easier pedestrian access (39% of respondents);
§
Improved range of shops (38% of respondents);
§
Improved safety for pedestrians (34% of respondents);
§
Improved cleanliness (31% of respondents); and,
§
More attractive streetscape (22%).
25
Figure 4.3
Likely Impact of USP on Frequency of Visit
50%
48%
45%
40%
34%
35%
30%
25%
20%
16%
15%
10%
5%
1%
1%
Decrease slightly
Decrease
significantly
0%
Increase significantly
Increase slightly
Not likely to change
Figure 4.4
Likely Impact of USP on Length of Stay in City Centre
60%
51%
% of responses
50%
38%
40%
30%
20%
10%
10%
1%
1%
Decrease slightly
Decrease
significantly
0%
Increase
significantly
Increase slightly
Not likely to
change
26
4.11
The results of the pedestrian survey would suggest that USP is unlikely to have a
major impact on the distribution of pedestrians around the city centre area. As
Table 4.4 illustrates, even after pedestrianisation some 50% of respondents cited
Zone 2 as the area they would use most during their visits to the city centre. The
proportion of respondents citing Zone 1 (covering the pedestrianised section) does
increase slightly post USP, while the proportion citing Zone 3 remains unchanged.
Table 4.4
Main Area of City Centre Used
(% of responses)
Current
27%
55%
18%
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Post USP
31%
50%
19%
4.12
4.13
In terms of activities undertaken during visits to the city centre, the activities most
commonly cited as likely to increase as a result of USP included:
§
Shopping for clothes and shoes (30% said this would increase);
§
Visiting restaurants, cafes and pubs (39% said this would increase);
§
General social activities such as ‘window shopping’, ‘sitting outside’ etc. (25-40% of
respondents said these activities would increase).
As Figure 4.5 illustrates, respondents generally thought that USP would result in
either no change or a moderate increase in their spend per visit to the city centre
area. Some 54% of respondents thought that the scheme would result in at least a
slight increase in spend per visit. Only 5 respondents (less than 1%) thought that
USP would result in a drop in their spend per visit.
27
Figure 4.5
Likely Impact of USP on Spend per Visit to the City Centre
50%
46%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
20%
20%
15%
9%
10%
3%
5%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Increase Increase Increase Increase Increase
Not
Decrease Decrease Decrease Decrease
more 50-100% 25-50% 10-25%
up to
likely to
up to
10-25% 25-50% 50-100%
than
10%
change
10%
100%
SUMMARY
4.14
The key points from this section can be summarised as follows:
§
The pedestrian survey provides a useful snapshot of the views of regular users of
Aberdeen city centre, particularly those resident in the city and the wider regional
catchment area;
§
Respondents showed a general enthusiasm for the USP scheme, with over 90%
agreeing that USP would make the city centre a more attractive place to visit;
§
USP is likely to encourage a slight increase in the frequency and length of visit of
respondents, though approximately 50% felt that the scheme would have no impact;
§
Survey results do not suggest a major redistribution of pedestrians throughout the
city centre as a result of USP. Respondents indicated a slight increase in their use of
the main pedestrianised stretch, but still cited Zone 2 (covering the St Nicholas
Centre, Bon Accord Centre and The Academy shopping centres) as the area in which
they are likely to spend most time;
§
USP is likely to have a moderate positive impact on respondents average spend per
visit, though again a high proportion felt the scheme would have no impact.
28
5
BUSINESS SURVEY
INTRODUCTION
5.1
A total of 38 interviews with businesses located in the study area were carried out as
a part of the survey with the range of businesses selected in order to represent the
key sectors active in the area and the geographical spread of companies throughout
the area. The number of businesses interviewed can be broken down by sector as
follows:
§
Retail – 18
§
Entertainment/Visitor Attractions – 5
§
Hotels and Catering – 5
§
Business Services – 6
§
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and Other Industries – 4
5.2
In general terms businesses in the retail, entertainment and hospitality sectors were
very positive and keen to take part in the survey, recognising the direct impact that
the proposals might have on their business. Interviews were more difficult to
arrange with firms in other sectors where such a clear direct impact was not so
apparent.
5.3
In order to capture a possible geographical variation in companies perception of the
USP proposals interviews were conducted with business in all parts of the study area.
The number of interviews carried out can be broadly broken down as follows:
5.4
§
Union Street East (Bridge St to Castlegate) – 9 interviews;
§
Belmont St to Bon Accord Centre – 9 interviews;
§
Shiprow to North Esplanade – 7 interviews; and,
§
Union Street West (Bridge St to Albyn place) – 13 interviews
The purpose of the interview process was to examine firm’s current perceptions of
Aberdeen City Centre as a place to do business and estimate the likely impact of USP
proposals on business activities. This section provides a broad summary of the key
findings across each key sector. A more detailed breakdown of findings is provided
in Appendix D. A copy of the questionnaire form used is also provided in Appendix
B.
29
RETAIL
5.5
A total of 18 interviews with retailers were conducted as a part of the business
survey. To reflect the importance of this sector to the life of the city centre this was
the largest number of interviews carried out among any single group and the ease of
arranging interviews suggested a high degree of interest in the USP proposals.
Those retailers interviewed included most of the key shopping outlets and the major
shopping malls located in the city centre, but also included a sample of smaller
independent and traditional retailers. Together the retailers interviewed employed a
total of 2,700 permanent employees or around 38% of the total number people
employed in retailing in the study area.
Current perceptions
5.6
5.7
All the retailers interviewed relied on the road network for deliveries from suppliers.
In general most respondents (69%) were satisfied or very satisfied with the current
transport network. Many retailers have loading bays located off Union Street or
other main roads which generally allow easy access for lorries. Some 31% of
respondents were unsatisfied, however, which represents a high rate of
dissatisfaction when compared to most other sectors. Factors noted by such
respondents in relation to the transport system included:
§
Congestion on Market St, Union St and Holborn St and difficulties in receiving
deliveries due to bus lanes on Union St;
§
Lack of parking spaces available for staff;
§
Roads around the city centre are not well suited to large delivery vehicles;
§
Signposting around the city centre for traffic is of a very poor standard;
§
The city becomes very congested and gridlocked during the peak Christmas period.
In terms of retailers views of the city centre as a location for business, the area was
rated highly in terms of accessibility for customers, suppliers and staff, but poor in
relation to property costs and overall attractiveness of the area. Key comments
made by respondents included:
§
The attractive aspects of the area are under-exploited and hidden by heavy traffic on
Union St;
§
The pedestrian environment at present is dangerous, congested and unattractive;
§
The city centre now looks of poor quality in comparison with key competitor locations
such as Dundee and Inverness which have received high levels of investment in
recent years;
30
High vacancy levels in the West End are resulting in an increasing concentration of
shoppers in other parts of the city. This is having a serious impact on existing
retailers in the West end.
§
Impact of USP
5.8
Around three quarters of retailers interviewed thought that USP would make the city
centre a much more attractive place to do business. This was the highest approval
rating by far among all groups of businesses interviewed. The strongest positive
responses were made by businesses located directly on the section of Union Street to
be pedestrianised. Of those businesses responding either ‘no impact’ or ‘less
attractive’, most were located in Zone 3.
5.9
Some 82% of retail businesses thought that USP would have an impact on the
turnover of their business. As Figure 5.1 illustrates, 65% of businesses thought that
turnover would increase as a result of USP, with growth of up to 10% the most
commonly cited response. These responses clearly mark out retailers as the
business sector for which USP has the greatest expected impact, with the largest
positive impact concentrated among business directly located on the pedestrianised
stretch. Those businesses who reported a likely drop in turnover were typically
located along the west end of Union Street and concerned over the impact of USP on
customer footfall in their area.
Figure 5.1
Expected impact of USP on Turnover - Retail Businesses Only
60%
55%
50%
40%
30%
20%
18%
18%
9%
10%
0%
0%
Growth of over 10%
Growth of less than
10%
Remain the same
Source: DTZ Pieda Consulting Business Survey
31
Decline of up to 10%
Decline of more than
10%
5.10
5.11
Overall retailers expected USP to have a positive impact on their ability to access
customers with a more attractive environment likely to encourage an increase in the
number of visitors using the city centre. Some of the key points noted by
interviewees included:
§
USP is crucial in order to re-assert the city centre’s role as the main shopping
destination in the North East;
§
Investment is required to retain the city’s competitive position in the face of
improvements to the retail offer available in cities such as Dundee and Inverness;
§
USP will make the city centre a more attractive place to shop and work and spend
time;
§
Investment in the environment and infrastructure will go a long way to improving
business confidence in the city centre;
§
An increase in the number of big-name retailers in the area would result in an
increase in shopper interest;
§
As a direct result of the proposals, we would expect to see an increase in turnover of
up to 10% caused by increased footfall, and would also expect a corresponding
increase in employee numbers.
Respondents expressed concerned, however, over the impact of USP on customers
ability to access the city centre by car. Many retailers emphasised the importance of
car-borne customers to their trade and the need for USP and the associated changes
to the transport network to maintain easy access to and throughout the city centre
area. Points noted by interviewees included:
§
Need clarification over the impact of bus priority routes on access rights and delivery
schedules. It is important to maintain car access right throughout the city centre;
§
USP is likely to be detrimental to the west end of Union Street and encourage more
congregation of shoppers towards the east end;
§
Need to improve signposting to car parking for car borne customers and investigate
alternative transport systems (e.g. light rail, tram links);
§
USP will only bring benefits to the city if concerns over the transport network are
properly dealt with;
§
USP will not solve anything by itself but has to be seen as one part of a wide range of
necessary investments.
32
HOTELS AND CATERING
5.12
Interviews with 5 businesses in the hotel and catering sector were conducted,
representing 13% of the total number of interviews carried out. Businesses
interviewed ranged from large city centre hotels to fast food restaurants and were
based in locations spread along the full stretch of Union Street and its surrounds.
Together the businesses interviewed accounted for employment of some 260
permanent jobs, or around 6% of the total employment in the sector within the
study area.
Current Perceptions
5.13
All the businesses interviewed relied on the road network for deliveries from
suppliers and for access to customers. All respondents were generally ‘satisfied’ or
‘very satisfied’ with the quality of the road network at present with businesses
reporting only occasional congestion related problems with deliveries or customers
moving around the city by car or taxi.
5.14
Across most indicators Aberdeen city centre was rated as a good location to do
business by respondents in the Hotels and Catering sector providing good access to
customers, good accessibility by car and public transport. Key comments made by
interviewees included:
§
Aberdeen city is a good location in terms of access to customers (e.g. oil industry and
other business travellers who tend to be high spending visitors);
§
Happy with current situation as restaurant is always full at peak times. There are no
problems with deliveries and staff are easy to come by because of high student
population;
§
Current transport infrastructure is satisfactory for Union Street, but not for Holborn
Street where congestion tends to be more of a problem.
Impact of USP
5.15
All the businesses interviewed thought that USP would make Aberdeen city centre a
more attractive place to do business in general. However, businesses did not feel
that improvements would have a significant impact on their turnover with 80% of
respondents expecting no change in turnover. Only one interviewee felt that USP
would result in a slight drop in turnover as a result of the loss of direct bus access to
Union Street.
33
5.16
These results contrast slightly with the results from the pedestrian survey in which
users of Union Street felt that pedestrianisation would result in an increase in their
use of and spending in city centre pubs, restaurants and cafes. In this case, it may
be that the small sample used as a part of the business survey does not capture the
full range of types of businesses active in this sector in the area.
5.17
Respondents felt that improvements to the overall attractiveness of the area and
improved convenience and safety for pedestrians moving around the city centre
would be beneficial for business in general but were sceptical about whether these
would translate into more trade for their own businesses. At the same time concerns
were expressed over the impact of USP on access to suppliers and accessibility by
car for customers. Typical comments made by respondents included:
§
At present the city centre layout doesn’t encourage people to walk around and spend
time. USP will make the city a more attractive place to do business from this point of
view;
§
Will increased congestion on routes around Union Street make it more difficult for
suppliers to get in and out of the city? Need more clarification on impact of bus
priority routes;
§
Union Street is not an attractive place to shop because of the lack of shops,
pedestrianisation on its own won't be enough and regeneration of the city-centre is
also needed;
§
Unsure about the final impact of the scheme on the centre as a whole….success
depends on attracting new customers to the area;
§
The scheme alone is unlikely to attract increased numbers of day visitors unless it
results in the arrival of a variety of new, high quality retailers.
ENTERTAINMENT/VISITOR ATTRACTIONS
5.18
A total of 5 interviews were carried out with businesses in the entertainment/visitor
attractions sector accounting for 13% of the total number of interviews carried out.
Businesses interviewed included cinemas, museums, music and arts venues and
were located throughout the study area. Together these businesses accounted for a
total of 250 permanent jobs or around 11% of the total employment in the sector in
the study area.
34
Current Perceptions
5.19
Again, businesses relied largely on the road network for deliveries from suppliers and
for access to customers and reported a relatively high level of dissatisfaction with
current transport infrastructure. Specific problems reported by businesses included
problems with car parking for customers coming to the city in the evening and
general traffic congestion during working hours.
5.20
In general businesses reported that Aberdeen city centre was a positive place to do
business in terms of access to customers and suppliers and accessibility by public
transport. The city centre rated less well, however, across factors such as
accessibility by car, the quality of the pedestrian environment and safety issues.
Common points noted by interviewees included the following:
§
The area can be quite unattractive and we run up substantial cleaning bills in
cleaning up needles from drug-use late at night. The area is also used by shop-lifters
during the day and prostitutes late at night;
§
Broadly Aberdeen city centre is a good location, but a lack of parking for car borne
visitors is an issue, as is clarity of signage for pedestrian visitors trying to navigate
their way around the city.
Impact of USP
5.21
Businesses in the entertainment/visitor attractions sector reported mixed views on
whether USP would make Aberdeen City Centre more attractive as a place to do
business. While 40% of businesses reported that the proposals have a positive
impact on turnover, while 40% felt that turnover would remain unchanged. A
marked geographical element was noted in the responses from businesses on this
issue with negative responses generally being made by firms located in areas
peripheral to the main city centre thoroughfares. Such businesses were concerned
that USP would lead to an increasing concentration of customers in the core city
centre and that traffic congestion would have a further negative impact on their
trade.
5.22
In general, businesses expected that improvements to the city centre environment,
including pedestrian safety, would benefit business, but were concerned over the
impact of USP on accessibility by car and traffic congestion in the city centre in
general. Typical comments by businesses included:
§
USP will make the city centre a more attractive place to spend time and therefore
should help increase the number of visitors in the city and the length of time they
stay;
§
How will car accessibility be affected? Will the roads adjacent to Union St become
much more congested with traffic or attract huge numbers of buses?
35
§
The proposals might be good for upgrading the overall feel of the area;
§
Impact on the city will be maximised if USP involves increasing the range of services
on offer and encourages a broader mix of activities to take place on Union Street and
throughout the city centre.
BUSINESS SERVICES
5.23
A total of 6 interviews with business service companies were conducted with firms
representing a wide range of activities including financial services, new media,
recruitment consultancy and publishing. Most businesses were located in the west
end of the city centre. Together the businesses interviewed accounted for total
employment of around 180 permanent jobs.
5.24
Most respondents had a broadly positive perception of the city centre as a place to
do business, though the area tended to rate relatively poorly in relation to
accessibility by car and property costs.
5.25
Given the nature of their sector most businesses interviewed had relatively low
transport requirements. Nevertheless, a number of companies cited difficulties
relating to staff and clients being able to easily access their offices by car. Examples
of comments made by interviewees include:
§
Generally happy with Aberdeen city location as a place to do business. Access by car
occasionally a problem…worse when Market street has been closed off;
§
Very positive perception of city centre in general. Parking problems for staff and
clients are the only irritant;
§
In recent years it has become increasingly difficult to get into the city-centre by car.
The parking restrictions placed around the city centre have not helped.
Impact of USP
5.26
Some 60% of respondents in the business services sector thought that USP would
make the city centre a more attractive place to do business. Only one respondent
thought the area would become less attractive, this being driven by concerns over
the impact of the proposals on traffic congestion around the city. Despite this
generally positive perception of the proposals, none of the businesses interviewed
felt that USP would have any impact on their turnover or employment levels.
36
5.27
Overall, while businesses felt that USP would help improve the general city centre
environment, making it a more pleasant place for staff and clients, they did not feel
that these improvements would impact significantly on their own business. In terms
of negative impacts, businesses expressed concerns that good accessibility to the city
centre by car should be maintained after USP. Typical comments from respondents
included:
§
The proposals should make the city-centre more attractive provided there is still
access to the city-centre to and from surrounding areas;
§
USP will make the city centre more attractive for business in general, but will not
necessarily have any impact on us specifically. Improvements to transport network,
local environment and so on are relatively unimportant in comparison to factors such
as the state of the economy and continued vibrancy in the oil industry;
§
Don’t think that USP will have any impact on our business. This will make a big
difference to staff, however, if the city becomes a nicer place to walk around. If the
city can generate a more cosmopolitan feel this might have a slight impact on the
ability of firms to attract creative staff to the area;
MANUFACTURING, OIL AND GAS AND OTHER INDUSTRIES
5.28
Interviews with 4 companies involved in manufacturing, oil and gas and other
industries were conducted as a part of the business survey. As Section 3 illustrated,
while these sectors together account for a large share of employment across
Aberdeen City as a whole (representing around a quarter of all employment), within
the study area itself they account for a far lower share of activity. As such, this is
the smallest group of businesses interviewed as part of the survey.
5.29
Businesses interviewed ranged from very large international companies to locally
based SMEs. All businesses were located to the south of the study area in the
Market St to North Esplanade area. Together the businesses interviewed accounted
for employment of around 180 jobs in the city centre area, representing around 6%
of the total number of people employed locally in the sector.
Current Perceptions
5.30
Businesses rely on the road transport network for deliveries to customers and from
suppliers. In general respondents were broadly satisfied with the quality of the
current transport network while still noting difficulties relating to congestion,
especially during road works on the city’s main arteries.
37
5.31
Aberdeen city centre was again rated as generally a positive place for most
businesses. The area was rated as positive in terms of accessibility by car, public
transport, availability of staff and accessibility for staff but received a generally low
rating in terms of property costs.
Impact of USP
5.32
Businesses had mixed views on whether USP would make the area more attractive as
a place to do business. Half of respondents felt the proposals would have a positive
impact on the area, while half felt there would be no impact or that the area would
be less attractive. None of the respondents felt that USP would have an impact on
the turnover of their own business.
5.33
Overall, businesses in these sectors felt that USP would improve the attractiveness of
the core city centre, but did not feel that these improvements would impact directly
on their trade. At the same time, respondents expressed concerns over the impact
of the proposals on accessibility to the city centre by car and the general
management of traffic diverted away from the pedestrianised stretch. Comments
from interviewees included:
§
There are simply too many people trying to walk on too small an area along the
pavements of union street at the moment. The proposals should therefore make
Union Street more attractive;
§
Pedestrianisation may displace more cars onto streets around union street. We need
a good transport system like they have in Dublin linking the different areas of
Aberdeen;
§
USP won’t affect us at all. We’re more concerned about proposed developments
closer to our part of the city.
Summary
5.34
Overall some 75% of firms interviewed across all sectors felt that the USP proposals
described would make Aberdeen City Centre a more attractive place to do business.
Only 17% of respondents felt that the area would become a less attractive place to
do business. Only 49% of respondents felt that the proposals would have any
impact (positive or negative) on the turnover of their own business, however.
5.35
As the analysis above demonstrates, the results of the business survey suggest that
the greatest impact from USP proposals are likely to come among businesses in the
retail, entertainment and hospitality sectors. These sectors gave the highest positive
ratings for the proposals and were the only sectors to suggest that USP would have
any impact on turnover. Even among these three core sectors, retail businesses
stand out as expecting the greatest potential impact as a result of the proposals.
38
5.36
Among other sectors such as business services, manufacturing, oil and gas and other
industries, while many respondents felt that the proposals would make the area
more attractive in general, no businesses suggested that USP would have any impact
at all on their own turnover or employment. Such results are in line with initial
expectations given the nature of business carried out in these sectors and their
geographical position around the core city centre area.
5.37
Across all sectors businesses felt that USP would have a positive impact on the ability
of staff and customers to move around the city centre by foot and would improve the
attractiveness of the city centre area. At the same time, respondents were
concerned over the impact of the proposals on their ability to easily access the city
centre by car and by public transport.
39
6
IMPACT OF USP
INTRODUCTION
6.1
This section estimates the likely impact of USP on specific sectors in the study area
based upon the findings of the pedestrian, business surveys and consultations. For
each sector the gross potential impact of the proposals on turnover and employment
of businesses located in the study area is considered alongside the impact on local
incomes. The analysis then considers the likely impact of the proposals at the net
Scottish level.
6.2
The method used to estimate the impact of USP on turnover and employment in the
study area in this section can be described as follows:
§
Estimate baseline turnover for key sectors in the study area using data taken from
2001 Annual Business Inquiry;
§
Estimate impact of USP on turnover of businesses in each sector in terms of likely
percentage change using results of the pedestrian and business surveys. As such,
the analysis assumes that survey results are broadly representative of each sector;
§
Estimate gross impact of USP on turnover by applying percentage changes to
baseline data;
§
Convert gross impact on turnover to employment using employment:turnover ratios
for each local sector taken from Annual Business Inquiry results;
§
Estimate gross impact on local incomes by applying average earnings data for each
sector to gross employment estimates.
6.3
While this approach yields estimates of the employment which may be created by
the USP proposals, they should be considered as indicative estimates only. There is
no guarantee that any increases in turnover among businesses will be translated into
increased employment levels since companies may rather choose to reinvest in other
areas of the business or take a higher element of profits.
6.4
Further, impact on turnover is derived largely from the results of the business
survey. When analysed at a sector by sector level, in some cases the sample sizes
achieved in the survey may not accurately represent the full range of businesses
active in the city centre. This caveat is particularly relevant when discussing sectors
such as hotels and catering and entertainment which cover a wide range of activities
and sizes of business all of which may be affected by USP in different ways.
40
RETAIL SECTOR
6.5
As section 5 discusses, the results of the business survey suggest that the retail
sector expects to experience a greater impact on turnover and employment as a
result of USP than any other sector in the city centre. Over 82% of retailers
expected that the proposals would make the city centre a more attractive place to do
business and this would have an impact on their turnover. Across all businesses
interviewed the average expected increase in turnover was estimated at 4%.
6.6
Given the relatively large number of interviews carried out amongst retailers
(businesses contacted represented around a third of total retailing employment in
the city centre), these findings can be considered relatively robust. These findings
are also backed up by results taken from the survey of pedestrian users of Union
Street. For instance:
§
Over half of all users cited shopping activities as their main reason for coming to the
city centre;
§
Around 50% of users felt that USP would encourage them to make more visits and
spend more time in the city centre;
§
30% of respondents expected that USP would result in an increase in the number of
visits made to shop for clothing and shoes; and,
§
More than half of all users expected USP would result in at least a moderate increase
their spend per visit to the city centre.
6.7
Table 6.1, summarises the expected impact of USP on businesses in the retail sector.
Using data obtained from the Annual Business Inquiry, the total turnover of retail
businesses located in the study area is estimated at some £482m. Assuming an
average increase in turnover of 4% as a result of USP would result in an additional
£18m of turnover. Such an increase in turnover would imply an increase of some
270 employee jobs in the sector across the city centre as a whole. The increase in
retained incomes (e.g. wages and salaries) associated with these additional jobs is
estimated at £2.2m. Such impacts are per annum benefits over the lifetime of the
project (i.e. retail turnover is likely to be £18m pa higher after USP than at present).
6.8
This is the estimated impact across the city centre study area as a whole. Within the
study area these impacts are likely to be strongest in the core city centre area. As
Section 5 discussed the strongest positive impacts were expected by businesses
located in Zone 1 or 2 of the city centre (east end Union Street; Belmont Street to
Bon Accord Centre). At the same time a number of interviewees were concerned
over the potential negative impact of the proposals on retail trade on the West end
of Union Street.
41
6.9
It is not possible to quantify the potential impact across the different zones of the
city centre, but there was generally more concern from businesses at the west end
of Union Street over the potential negative impacts of USP. This area in the city
centre already suffers from relatively high vacancy levels and it is possible that the
proposal may exacerbate the situation. However, the results of the pedestrian
survey do not indicate a radical change to the current distribution of shoppers
around the city centre after pedestrianisation. Further, it is also possible the USP
proposals may result in increased footfall along this stretch of Union Street as people
wait in this area for buses/public transport. Overall, in advance of the proposal it is
difficult to accurately determine whether the impact will be positive or negative on
this zone.
6.10
The STAG analysis should consider the impact of the proposals at the Scottish level.
If the proposals are successful in increasing the number of people visiting the city, it
is important to determine whether any additional expenditure of these people is
additional to both the city centre and Scotland as a whole i.e. has the additional
expenditure arisen because of the Union Street proposals, or would the expenditure
have taken place elsewhere in Scotland? Given the nature of the expenditure and
the competition between towns and cities for retail trade, we believe that 100% of
this additional expenditure in Aberdeen would be displaced at the Scottish level.
6.11
A number of retailers interviewed during the study noted that trade in recent years
had been adversely affected by improvements to the retail offer available in
competitor shopping locations such as Dundee, Inverness and Glasgow. Such
businesses felt that USP would help them to regain some of this trade by making
Aberdeen city centre a more attractive place to visit and spend time. In this way,
the 4% increase in turnover expected by retailers as a result of USP is most likely to
arrive at the expense of retail areas in these competitor cities. Given the nature of
the retail offer within the study area and Aberdeen’s role as the main retail centre in
the North East of Scotland, it is considered unlikely that USP will have a significant
negative impact on businesses located elsewhere in Aberdeen City and
Aberdeenshire.
Table 6.1
Impact of USP – Retail Sector
Gross impact - Study Area
Net Impact - Scotland
Turnover pa
(% change
over current)
£18.4 m (4%)
0
Employment pa
(Employee jobs)
Incomes pa
270
0
£2.2mn
0
6.12
To conclude the Union Street proposals are estimated to generate additional
turnover of £18.4m per annum in the retail sector in Aberdeen and an additional 270
jobs per annum with associated income of £2.2 million. At the Scottish level, these
jobs would be displaced.
42
HOTELS AND CATERING
6.13
The results of the business survey suggest that respondents in the hospitality sector
felt that USP would make the city centre a more attractive place, but that the
turnover of their own business would not necessarily be affected. In fact, 80% of
respondents in the sector felt that USP would have no impact on their turnover at all.
6.14
These results, however, contradict slightly the results of the pedestrian survey in
which respondents felt that USP would result in an increase in their use and spending
in the sector. The survey suggested that:
§
Almost a third of pedestrian users visited restaurants and cafes during their visit to
the city centre; and
§
38% of users expected that USP would result in an increase in their use of
restaurants, cafes and pubs in the city centre. This was the highest positive rating
among all activities cited.
6.15
As noted in section 5, this discrepancy in results may arise from the relatively small
sample of businesses interviewed in the hotels and catering sector. It may be that
the sample achieved may not accurately represent the full range of types of
businesses active in the city centre. For instance, the sample of 5 businesses
included 2 hotels whose trade was driven largely by business tourism and who
expected no impact on turnover as a result of USP. A larger sample, including a
larger number of smaller cafes and takeaway establishments might be more likely to
capture more businesses expecting to achieve a positive impact in turnover.
6.16
Taking this caveat and the results of both surveys into account, Table 6.2 allows a
modest increase in turnover of 2% for businesses in the hospitality sector as a result
of USP. This level should be considered a maximum potential impact on the sector.
This would indicate a potential increase in employment of some 90 jobs and an
increase in local incomes of £0.6 million. Again, these represent per annum benefits
relative to the current position.
6.17
Across Scotland the net impact on the sector is expected to be zero as 100%
displacement is assumed.
Table 6.2
Impact of USP – Hotels and Catering Sector
Turnover pa
(% change
over current)
£2.2m (2%)
0
43
Employment pa
(Employee jobs)
Incomes pa
90
0
£0.6mn
0
ENTERTAINMENT AND VISITOR ATTRACTIONS
6.18
As Section 5 discussed 40% of businesses in the entertainment sector expected an
increase in their turnover as a result of USP, while a further 40% expected turnover
to remain unchanged. This wide variance of responses may again be a result of the
small sample size used in the current survey and the geographical distribution of
businesses contacted. Although the sample used did account for a number of key
businesses in the city centre, a larger survey might have identified a more
representative pattern in responses from businesses in the sector overall.
6.19
Overall average change in turnover as a result of USP was estimated at 2% (£1.9m
when grossed up across the whole sector in the area). The gross impact on
employment is estimated at 50 jobs, generating some £0.5 million of local income.
Again, these positive benefits are likely to be greatest in the core city centre area,
with respondents based outside this zone expressing concerns over a potential drop
in passing trade and increasing traffic problems.
Table 6.3
Impact of USP – Entertainment and Visitor Attractions Sector
Turnover pa
Employment pa
(% change
(Employee jobs)
over current)
£1.9m (2%)
50
0
0
Incomes pa
£0.5mn
0
6.20
At the Scottish level, we believe that this additional expenditure would be displaced
such that there would be no net benefit.
BUSINESS SERVICES
6.21
While recognising the potential benefits of USP for the city as a whole and the likely
impact of the proposals on the attractiveness of the city, respondents from the
business services sector did not expect pedestrianisation to have a significant impact
on their own businesses. A number of businesses noted that although the proposals
would assist the city in terms of making the area more attractive for staff and for
visiting clients, such benefits were very marginal when compared with more core
concerns such as general economic and industrial trends.
6.22
Hence, the business survey results show that there would be no impact on either
income or employment from the USP. This is shown in Table 6.4. Such impacts are
in line with initial expectations given the nature of businesses active in the area and
the geographical distribution of businesses away from the core city centre.
44
Table 6.4
Impact of USP – Business Services Sector
Employment pa
(Employee jobs)
0
0
Incomes pa
0
0
MANUFACTURING, OIL AND GAS AND OTHER INDUSTRIES
6.23
None of the respondents interviewed in the manufacturing, oil and gas and other
sectors felt that USP proposals would have any impact on the turnover of their
business. Even those businesses with concerns over the impact of the proposals on
the local transport network recognised that any such changes or problems would be
marginal in comparison to other factors. Hence, the impact of USP on the study area
is neutral on this sector in terms of income and employment. Again, such results are
broadly in line with initial expectations. Even in cases where manufacturing
businesses are dependent on the transport network for deliveries to customers and
from suppliers, the positioning of most businesses in the sector towards the south
end of the study area allows for easy access in and out of the city. As such, most
businesses felt that changes on Union Street would have only minimal impact on
their trade.
Table 6.5
Impact of USP – Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and Other Industries
Employment
(Employee jobs)
0
0
Incomes
0
0
6.24
At the Scottish level, there would also be a `zero’ impact on income and
employment.
TOURISM
6.25
Consultations with Aberdeenshire and Grampian Tourist Board suggest that
improving the attractiveness of the city centre is a key factor in helping to develop
leisure tourism in Aberdeen City. At present it is felt that the city centre environment
is of poor quality in that:
§
Busy, congested streets don’t present a pleasant experience for new visitors;
45
§
Heavy traffic along Union Street means that many of the attractive aspects of the
area are not shown off to their best effect;
§
Vacant and unused retail units along Union Street don’t give a good impression of the
city to new tourists;
§
Many of the city’s attractions are spread over a wide area. The city lacks a good
quality focus point for visitors and activities.
6.26
Given these issues it is felt that USP would be a positive factor in helping improve the
experience of new visitors to the city and encourage return visits. Improving the
attractiveness of the city centre would also help the city take advantage of business
tourism by encouraging such visitors to spend more time and money in the city
centre itself.
6.27
Overall, however, USP would not be expected to have a significant short term impact
on the tourism industry in the city. The proposals by themselves would not provide
sufficient reason for new visitors to choose Aberdeen over another potential
destination. Rather, the pedestrianisation proposals, alongside a range of other
developments, are important in generating a longer term impact on tourism by
providing visitors with an improved leisure experience and encouraging return visits.
6.28
Hence, our assessment of the impact of USP or tourism numbers and expenditure in
the short term is zero. Again, there would be no impact at the Scottish level.
INWARD INVESTMENT
6.29
Consultations with SE Grampian suggest that the attractiveness of the city centre
environment is not a key factor in encouraging inward investors to the Aberdeen
area.
While investors would like the city centre to reflect evidence of an
economically vibrant and growing area when choosing their location, such issues are
generally less important that market factors, property issues, availability of skills,
international connectivity and so on.
6.30
Even when the area competes with other regions for mobile investment, it is felt that
the attractiveness and vibrancy of the city centre which USP may help encourage is
not likely to provide a major benefit when compared against the financial incentives
available elsewhere.
46
6.31
In terms of attracting new businesses into the city centre, the retail sector may be
influenced by the USP proposals. Discussions with a number of property agents
suggested that the USP proposals would make Aberdeen more attractive as a
destination, but that there would not necessarily be an increase in the retail offer on
Union Street. A number of areas were provided:
§
Retailers are wanting large, open plan floorplates on one/two levels, while the units
on Union Street tend to have multi-levels and are relatively shallow; and
§
In general, covered areas tend to be preferred.
6.32
It is not guaranteed that pedestrianisation would increase rental values on Union
Street which are approximately £30-£40 per sq ft (Zone A) less than those currently
achieved in the Bon Accord Centre. It is understood that the Eastgate Centre in
Inverness achieves higher rents than the pedestrian area of the High Street.
6.33
It is possible however that the proposals will balance the rents on the north and
south side of Union Street as the north side currently achieves lower rents due to
lower footfall and the ‘gaps’ in the retail offering e.g. St Nicholas Kirk etc.
Pedestrianisation will remove the barrier to the lower footfall on the north side.
6.34
The ability to attract cafes to the pedestrian area will be influenced by rents and, at
present, Union Street rents on the prime stretch are considered too high for many of
these activities. Therefore, streets just off-prime, may become more attractive to
cafes.
6.35
To conclude, the USP proposals are not likely to influence the location of office and
industrial development in the city centre, but they could influence the rents achieved,
and in particular achieve a ‘balance’ of rents between the north and south side of the
street.
SUMMARY
6.36
Table 6.6 summarises the likely impact of USP across key sectors located in
Aberdeen City centre. Overall, the proposals are expected to have a modest positive
impact on the economy of the study area and increase the attractiveness of the city
centre for residents and visitors. The main sectors to gain from this proposal are the
retail, hospitality and entertainment sectors where an increase in jobs is anticipated
if the additional expenditure of visitors is translated into employment. The business
services, manufacturing, oil and gas and other industries sectors anticipate a neutral
impact, assuming that the traffic which is removed from Union Street is free flowing
elsewhere in the city.
47
Table 6.6
Impact of USP by Sector
Gross Impact within Study Area
Retail
Hotels and Catering
Business Services
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and other
industries
Grand Total
Net Impact across Scotland
Retail
Hotels and Catering
Business Services
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and other
industries
Grand Total
Turnover pa
£m (% change
over current)
Employment pa
(Employee jobs)
Incomes pa
(£mn)
£18.4 m (4%)
£2.2 m (2%)
£1.9m (2%)
270
90
50
0
0
2.2
0.6
0.5
0
0
£22.5m (1%)
410
3.3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6.37
Across the city centre study area as a whole, the impact of the USP proposals is
estimated to create 410 jobs with associated incomes of £3.3 million. This is an
increase in employment in the study area of almost 1%. Turnover among
businesses in the study area is estimated to increase by around 1% in total, or
£22.5m over the current estimated level.
6.38
Table 6.7 shows that the total, hotels & catering and entertainment sectors are the
main beneficiaries with other sectors not being affected. The retail sector is
expected to experience the greatest impact as a result of USP with an estimated 4%
increase in turnover. This is equivalent to an increase in employment of up to 270
jobs if it is assumed that all increased turnover is translated into employment.
Businesses in fact may decide not to increase employment and use the increased
turnover for other purposes instead.
6.39
The impacts shown in Table 6.7 are per annum benefits accrued as a result of USP
relative to the current baseline position and are derived from the grossed up results
of the pedestrian and business surveys carried out as a part of this study. As noted
elsewhere in this report, given the relatively small sample used in the business
survey in particular, care should be taken when interpreting these results on a sector
by sector basis.
48
6.40
For Scotland as a whole, there is no net impact on employment as the proposals are
not likely to generate any additional expenditure that would not have occurred
elsewhere in Scotland. Increased retail turnover in the study area as a result of USP
is most likely to be gained at the expense of competitor retail locations in towns such
as Inverness, Dundee and Glasgow.
49
A PPENDIX BA
Appendix
Part 1a Appraisal Summary Table
Proposal Details
Name and address of authority or organisation
Proposal name
Union Street Pedestrianisation
Proposal
Full pedestrianisaion of Union Street between
description
Bridge Street and Market Street
Funding sought
from (if applicable)
Aberdeen City Council
Name of Planner
Estimated costs
w
Capital
(undiscounted)
w
Annual
Amount of application
(if applicable)
Proposal background
Planning objectives
Performance against
planning objectives
Alternatives to proposal
considered
Comment on
performance of
alternatives
Rationalise for selection
of proposal
Spatial and Social Information
Area context: general Union Street is the main street in Aberdeen city centre and links the main shopping centres – the Trinity Centre, St. Nicholas
Centre and the Bon-Accord Centre. It is also a major north/south link through the city centre.
Economic performance The city centre of Aberdeen has experienced a population increase in recent years while the population of the Council area as
a whole has declined. Employment in the city centre is concentrated in the financial services and distribution/hotels and
catering sector which are both sectors which are forecast to grow over the period to 2016. Average earning in the City area
Deprivation/social
exclusion
Planning and
environment
Spatial level of
appraisal
are relatively high compared to the Scottish average and unemployment is below the Scottish average. In terms of retailing
the City Centre is the main retail area in the North East. Excluding Edinburgh and Glasgow, it has the highest zone A rents of
the remaining three Scottish cities and has experienced relatively high growth in retail rents of the last five years.
Aberdeen City Council area is a relatively affluent area, but there are pockets of deprivation. Using the Scottish Index of
Multiple Deprivation 2003, 5 wards in the area are ranked within the 20% most deprived areas in Scotland. Of these, one
(Tullos Hill) is located close to the outskirts of the city centre area.
The economic impact of the Union Street proposal is assessed for the city centre area. This comprises Union Street and its
hinterland and extends to the harbour area in the east and the business district in the west end.
Implementability appraisal
Transport land-use
integration
Policy integration
Distribution impacts
Technical feasibility
Operational feasibility
Technical risks
Other risks
Affordability
Financial sustainability
Public acceptability
Part 1b Appraisal Summary Table
Objective
Assessment Summary
Transport: what are the
transport impacts on the
environment
Supporting information
Environment: what will be
the impacts on the
environment
Safety: what will be the
effects of the proposal on
road and pedestrian safety
Economy: what are the
impacts in terms of
transport economic
efficiency
Economic Activity: what
will be the local impacts in
terms of employment
Accessibility: what will be
the impacts on accessibility
Transport integration:
what will be the impacts in
integrating transport modes
and services
Policy integration: what
will be the impacts of the
proposal against wider
government policy
Modest Benefit
The Union Street proposal will increase the attractiveness of the city centre for residents
and visitors. The main sectors to gain from this proposal are the retail, hospitality and
entertainment sectors where an increase in jobs is anticipated if the additional expenditure
of visitors is translated into employment. The business services, manufacturing, oil and gas
and other industries sectors anticipate a neutral impact, assuming that the traffic which is
removed from Union Street is free flowing elsewhere in the city.
A PPENDIX B
UNION STREET PEDESTRIANISATION:
STAG EALI PART 1
Pedestrian Survey
Coding Information:
Location in City Centre.
Corner of Union Street and Marischal St
St Nicholas Sq
Corner of Union Street and Belmont St
Corner of Union Street and Bon Accord St
Corner of Union Street and Rose St
Corner of Broad St and Upperkirkgate
Corner of Belmont St and Schoolhill
Bridge St (nr Trinity Centre entry/exit)
Date of Interview
Time of Interview
Before 9am
9am – 12pm
12pm-2pm
2pm-5pm
after 5pm
A.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Gender
Male
Female
Age
Under 16
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-59
60+
Area of Residence
Aberdeenshire
Please state town name
Rest of Scotland
Please state town name
Other
Please state
B.
VISITS TO ABERDEEN CITY CENTRE
Which mode of travel did you use to come to the city centre today?
Car
Bus
Train
Taxi
Walk
Cycle
What is your main reason for being in Aberdeen city centre today
(tick one only)
To shop for food & groceries
To shop for clothing and shoes
To shop for other non food items
Visiting restaurants, cafes, pubs
Work in town centre
Business trip
Social/ leisure reasons
Passing through/ window shopping
Other (please state)
What other activities are you undertaking in the City Centre today?
(tick as many as apply)
Shopping for food & groceries
Shopping for clothing and shoes
Shopping for other non food items
Work in town centre
Business trip
Social/ leisure reasons
Passing through/ window shopping
How frequently do you visit Aberdeen City Centre?
Daily
2/3 times per week
4/5 times per week
Once per week
Once per fortnight
Once per month
Less often
Average length of stay in Aberdeen City Centre per visit?
Less than 1 hour
1-2 hours
2-4 hours
4-6 hours
6-8 hours
more than 8 hours
Which part of the city centre do you use most during visits to the area?
Show prompt card breaking city centre into three zones
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Approximately how much money do you expect to spend in Aberdeen
City Centre today?
£
Food and Groceries
Clothing and Shoes
Other non-food items
Restaurants/Café's/Pubs
Other Entertainment
Other items (please describe)
TOTAL
C.
PERCEPTIONS OF ABERDEEN CITY CENTRE AT PRESENT
How does Aberdeen City Centre at present compare with other similar areas you have visited in other
Scottish cities?
Glasgow
Dundee
Perth
Inverness Other (please
state)
Much better
Better
Neither better nor worse
Worse
Much worse
Don't Know/Unsure
Which improvements would be most likely to encourage you to visit
Aberdeen City Centre more often?
(Choose the three most important factors.)
Improved range of shops
Introduction of more 'big name' retailers
More restaurants and café's
Improved range of other entertainment services
Improved access by public transport
Improved access by car
Easier pedestrian access
Improved safety for pedestrians
Improved cleanliness
More attractive streetscape
Other factor (please state)
D.
IMPACT OF PEDESTRIANISATION PROPOSALS
Describe Pedestrianisation Proposals – Show picture
Are the proposed changes to Union Street likely to make the city centre a
more attractive place to visit?
Yes -much more attractive
Yes - more attractive
Neither more nor less attractive
No - less attractive
No - much less attractive
How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact on the following:
The frequency of your visits to Aberdeen city centre?
Increase slightly
Decrease slightly
Decrease significantly
The average length of visits to Aberdeen city centre
Increase slightly
Decrease slightly
Decrease significantly
Mode of transport used to visit the city centre
Increase
significantly
Car
Bus
Train
Taxi
Walk
Cycle
Increase
slightly
Not likely to
change
Decrease
slightly
Decrease
significantly
Activities undertaken during visits to the city centre
Increase
Increase
significantly
slightly
Shopping for clothing and shoes
Shopping for other non food
items
Using services (banks, travel
agents etc)
Other Entertainment (cinemas…)
Passing through/window
shopping
Walking to work/meetings
Sitting outside
Not likely to
change
Total spend per visit to the city centre:
Increase by:
More than 100%
50-100%
25-50%
10-25%
up to 10%
Decrease by
up to 10%
10-25%
25-50%
50-100%
Following pedestrianisation, which part of the city centre are you likely
to use most during visits to the area?
Show prompt card breaking city centre into three zones (to follow)
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Decrease
slightly
Decrease
significantly
Do you have any further comments to make regarding the
pedestrianisation proposals outlined here?
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE
UNION STREET PEDESTRIANISATION:
STAG EALI PART 1
Business Survey
A.
BACKGROUND INFORMATION
A1.
Name of Company:
A2.
Address:
A3.
Name of Respondent:
A4.
Position of Respondent:
B.
B1.
NATURE OF BUSINESS
Can you briefly describe the nature of your business, including products manufactured
or services provided?
B2.
In what year did your business start trading at this
location?
B3.
What is the present status of the company at this location? (please circle)
Sole trader/self employed
1
Independent single site business
2
Independent business with branches elsewhere
3
Branch/subsidiary of a business headquartered elsewhere
4
Other (please describe)
5
C.
C1.
RECENT BUSINESS PERFORMANCE
How many people are employed by the firm on this site?
Permanent
Seasonal
Full-time
Part-time
Total
C2.
C3.
Over the last three years, how has the number of people employed by the firm
changed? (please circle)
Grown by more than 10%
1
Grown by up to 10%
2
Remained the same
3
Declined by up to 10%
4
Declined by more than 10%
5
What was the turnover of the business at this site in the last financial year?
£0 - £24,000
1
£25,000 - £49,000
2
£50,000 - £99,000
3
£100,000 - £249,000
4
£250,000 - £499,000
5
£500,000 - £749,000
6
£750,000 - £999,000
7
£1 million - £3 million
8
Over £3 million
9
Would not like to disclose
C4.
10
Over the last three years, how has the turnover of the business changed?
Grown by more than 10%
1
Grown by up to 10%
2
Remained the same
3
Declined by up to 10%
4
Declined by more than 10%
5
D.
CUSTOMERS AND SUPPLIERS
Questions D1-D2: Ask Manufacturing Sector Only
D1.
What proportion of your sales are to customers from the following locations?
% of Turnover
Aberdeen City
Aberdeenshire
Elsewhere in Scotland
Elsewhere in the UK
Overseas
Total
D2.
100%
What are your key inputs and where are the sourced?
Input
Source
Questions D3-D6: Ask All Companies
D3.
What modes of transport do you use to make deliveries to customers and to receive
deliveries from suppliers? (tick all that apply)
Road only
1
Rail (with road access to rail)
2
Sea (with road access to port)
2
Air (with road access to air)
2
D4.
For deliveries to customers and deliveries from suppliers, how satisfied are you with the
transport infrastructure in Aberdeen City Centre?
Very satisfied
1
Satisfied
2
Not satisfied
3
D5.
Can you please explain your reasons for your answer? (probe for impact of traffic
congestion, traffic volumes, bus lanes, accessibility for deliveries and so on)
D6.
Who are your main competitors and where are they located?
Name
Location
Neutral
Negative
Strongly
Negative
How would you assess your location in Aberdeen City Centre in terms of the following
factors? (please use a five point scale were 1 = strongly positive through to 5 = strongly
negative)
Positive
E1.
CURRENT PERCEPTIONS OF ABERDEEN CITY CENTRE
Strongly
Positive
E.
Access to Customers
1
2
3
4
5
Access to Suppliers
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility by car
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility by public transport
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility by foot
1
2
3
4
5
Availability of Labour
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility for staff
1
2
3
4
5
Property Costs
1
2
3
4
5
Overall attractiveness of area
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Question E2: Ask only Retail, Hospitality, Entertainment and Visitor Attractions
Please indicate whether you agree or disagree with the following statements:
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Strongly
Disagree
“Trading prospects at these premises are adversely affected by…”
Strongly
Agree
E2.
High volumes of vehicle traffic
on Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Poor quality pedestrian
environment on Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Poor accessibility across Union
Street for pedestrians
1
2
3
4
5
Narrow
Street
1
2
3
4
5
Unsafe pedestrian environment
on Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Other Factors (please state)
1
2
3
4
5
Poor pedestrian access to and
from bus and rail links
footways
on
Union
F.
PEDESTRIANISATION PROPOSALS
Describe pedestrianisation proposals and show diagrams
F1.
Are these proposals likely to make Aberdeen City Centre a more attractive place to do
business?
Yes – Much more attractive
Yes – More attractive
Neither less nor more
No – Less attractive
No – Much less attractive
Negative
Strongly
Negative
How do you think these proposals will affect Aberdeen City Centre in terms of the
following factors? (please use a five point scale were 1 = strongly positive impact
through to 5 = strongly negative impact)
Neutral
F3.
Positive
Can you please explain your reasons for your answer?
Strongly
Positive
F2.
Access to Customers
1
2
3
4
5
Access to Suppliers
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility by public transport
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Availability of Labour
1
2
3
4
5
Accessibility for Staff
1
2
3
4
5
Property Costs
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
1
2
3
4
5
Question F4-F5: Ask only Retail, Hospitality, Entertainment and Visitor Attractions
F5.
Positive
Neutral
Negative
Strongly
Negative
What impact would the following factors be likely to have on trading conditions in
Aberdeen City Centre? (please use a five point scale were 1 = strongly positive impact
through to 5 = strongly negative impact)
Strongly
Positive
F4.
Improved accessibility across
Union Street for pedestrians
1
2
3
4
5
Improved
accessibility
for
pedestrians to and from bus and
rail links
1
2
3
4
5
Loss of direct access from cars
and buses on pedestrian zone
1
2
3
4
5
Improvements to quality of
Pedestrian
Environment
on
Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Improvements
to
Street
Furniture on Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Improved range of shops and
services on Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Improved pedestrian safety on
Union Street
1
2
3
4
5
Other Factors (please state)
1
2
3
4
5
Can you please explain your reasons for your answers?
Questions F6-F14: Ask All Businesses
F6.
Do you think that the pedestrianisation proposals are likely to have an impact on the
turnover of your business?
Yes
1
No (go to QF8.)
F7.
2
If YES, by how much do you expect turnover levels to change as a result of the
proposals?
Grow by more than 10%
1
Grow by up to 10%
2
Remain the same
3
Decline by up to 10%
4
Decline by more than 10%
5
F8.
If YES, can you please the reasons for these changes?
F9.
Are you likely to make any changes to your premises or the nature of your business as a
result of the pedestrianisation proposals?
(probe for changes to Premises, nature of business, goods and services offered)
Yes
1
No (go to QF12.)
F10.
2
If YES, can you please describe these potential changes?
F11.
Do you think that these changes are likely to have an impact on employment in your
business?
Yes
1
No
F12.
F13.
2
If YES, by how much do you expect employment levels to change as a result of these
changes?
Grow by more than 10%
1
Grow by up to 10%
2
Remain the same
3
Decline by up to 10%
4
Decline by more than 10%
5
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
“The pedestrianisation proposals for Union Street are likely to help attract more day
visitors and tourists to the City”
Strongly agree
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Strongly disagree
Disagree
Don’t Know/Unsure
F14.
Do you have any further comments on the proposals?
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE
A PPENDIX C
Appendix C: Pedestrian Survey Results
PEDESTRIAN SURVEY RESULTS
Table 1
Location of Interview in City Centre
Corner of Union St and Marischal St
St Nicholas Sq
Corner of Union St and Belmont St
Corner of Union St and Bon Accord St
Corner of Union St and Rose St
Corner of Broad St and Upperkirkgate
Corner of Belmont St and Schoolhill
Bridge St
Total responses
Male
23
44
29
24
12
12
13
42
199
Female
27
87
43
25
35
28
13
61
319
Total
50
131
72
49
47
40
26
103
518
% of total responses
10%
25%
14%
9%
9%
8%
5%
20%
Table 2
Time of Interview
before 9am
9am-12pm
12pm-2pm
2pm-5pm
after 5pm
Total responses
Male
Female
Total
0
67
71
62
0
200
1
143
72
103
2
321
1
210
143
165
2
521
Table 3
Section A - Age of Respondent
Male
Female
Total
under 16
16-24
25-34
35-44
45-59
60+
Total responses
13
103
94
90
122
99
521
4
55
30
35
40
36
200
9
48
64
55
82
63
321
% of total
responses
2%
20%
18%
17%
23%
19%
1
% of total
responses
0%
40%
27%
32%
0%
Table 4
Section A - Area of Residence
Male
Aberdeenshire
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total responses
51
101
30
5
13
200
Female
Total
70
165
54
8
24
321
121
266
84
13
37
521
% of total
responses
23%
51%
16%
2%
7%
Table 5
Section B - Which mode of travel did you use to come to
the city centre today?
Total by Mode
Car
160
30%
Bus
230
43%
Train
16
3%
Taxi
6
1%
Walk
115
22%
Cycle
2
0%
Total responses
529
100%
2
Table 6
Section B - What is your main reason for being in Aberdeen city centre today?
Area of Residence
Aberdeen City Centre Rest of Aberdeen City Aberdeenshire
Rest of Scotland
Other
Main Reason
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
to shop for food and
21
17%
41
15%
4
5%
0
0%
2
groceries
to shop for clothing and
19
16%
65
24%
36
43%
3
23%
15
shoes
to shop for other non16
13%
40
15%
9
11%
3
23%
2
food items
using services (banks,
12
10%
15
6%
4
5%
0
0%
0
travel agents etc)
visiting restaurants,
2
2%
4
2%
0
0%
0
0%
0
cafes, pubs etc
work in town centre
13
11%
27
10%
8
10%
0
0%
3
business trip
1
1%
6
2%
4
5%
0
0%
1
social/leisure reasons
20
17%
23
9%
7
8%
4
31%
7
passing through/window
6
5%
28
11%
5
6%
2
15%
6
shopping
other
11
9%
17
6%
7
8%
1
8%
1
Area total responses
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
1
Total
% of area
Count
total
5%
68
% of area
total
13%
41%
138
26%
5%
70
13%
0%
31
6%
0%
6
1%
8%
3%
19%
16%
51
12
61
47
10%
2%
12%
9%
3%
100%
37
521
7%
100%
Table 7
Section B - What other activities are you undertaking in the City Centre today?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
total
total
total
total
total
total
shopping for food
29
24%
57
21%
12
14%
3
23%
4
11%
105
20%
and groceries
shopping for
16
13%
48
18%
12
14%
4
31%
5
14%
85
16%
clothing and shoes
shopping for other
18
15%
47
18%
17
20%
1
8%
4
11%
87
17%
non-food items
using services
18
15%
29
11%
9
11%
2
15%
1
3%
59
11%
(banks, travel
agents etc)
visiting restaurants,
30
25%
67
25%
32
38%
4
31%
15
41%
148
28%
cafes, pubs etc
work in town centre
4
3%
5
2%
0
0%
0
0%
2
5%
11
2%
business trip
3
2%
1
0%
1
1%
0
0%
0%
5
1%
social/leisure
16
13%
28
11%
10
12%
3
23%
4
11%
61
12%
reasons
passing
24
20%
54
20%
10
12%
5
38%
8
22%
101
19%
through/window
shopping
other
3
2%
12
5%
2
2%
1
8%
1
3%
19
4%
note: columns do not sum to 100% as respondents were able to give more than one answer to the question. Percentages given are based on the number of respondents,
rather than the number of responses to the question.
2
Table 8
Section B – How frequently do you visit Aberdeen City Centre?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
daily
52
43%
75
28%
9
11%
0
0%
3
2/3 times per week
43
36%
74
28%
12
14%
0
0%
4
4/5 times per week
8
7%
26
10%
11
13%
1
8%
1
once per week
10
8%
57
21%
9
11%
1
8%
2
once per fortnight
2
2%
19
7%
13
15%
4
31%
0
once per month
1
1%
11
4%
19
23%
1
8%
3
less often
5
4%
4
2%
11
13%
6
46%
24
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
Table 9
Section B - Average length of stay in Aberdeen City Centre per visit
Area of Residence
Aberdeenshire
Rest of Scotland
Other
Count
% of area Count
% of area Count
% of area Count
% of area Count
total
total
total
total
less than 1 hour
11
9%
7
3%
3
4%
0
0%
0
1-2 hours
56
46%
76
29%
12
14%
0
0%
5
2-4 hours
35
29%
128
48%
36
43%
5
38%
11
4-6 hours
5
4%
28
11%
20
24%
4
31%
13
6-8 hours
12
10%
20
8%
6
7%
2
15%
6
more than 8 hours
2
2%
7
3%
7
8%
2
15%
2
Area total responses 121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
3
Total
% of area
Count
total
8%
139
11%
133
3%
47
5%
79
0%
38
8%
35
65%
50
100%
521
Total
% of area Count
total
0%
21
14%
149
30%
215
35%
70
16%
46
5%
20
100%
521
% of area
total
27%
26%
9%
15%
7%
7%
10%
100%
% of area
total
4%
29%
41%
13%
9%
4%
100%
Table 10
How much money do you expect to spend in Aberdeen City Centre today?
Nothing
£1-£10
£11-£25
£26-£50
Food and Groceries
340
90
47
36
Clothing and Shoes
320
16
39
76
Other non-food items
363
53
40
45
Restaurants/Café's/Pubs
337
132
40
10
Other Entertainment
487
18
13
3
Other items (please describe)
502
7
4
4
TOTAL
64
101
98
109
Table 11
How much money do you expect to spend in Aberdeen City Centre today?
No. Responses
Mean Spend Per Day
(£)
121
44
266
47
Aberdeenshire
84
62
Rest of Scotland
13
132
Other
37
69
Total
521
53
4
£51-£75
3
19
4
1
0
2
47
£76-£100
4
29
11
1
0
£101-£250
1
18
2
0
0
40
50
Median Spend Per Day
(£)
15
27
41
35
50
25
£251+
0
4
3
0
0
2
12
521
521
521
521
521
521
521
Table 12
Section B - Which part of the city centre do you use most during visits to the area?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
Zone 1
33
27%
76
29%
13
15%
3
23%
15
Zone 2
62
51%
150
56%
53
63%
6
46%
16
Zone 3
26
21%
40
15%
18
21%
4
31%
6
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
% of area
total
41%
43%
16%
100%
Total
Count
140
287
94
521
Table 13
Section C - How does Aberdeen City Centre at present compare with other similar areas you have visited in other Scottish cities?
How does Aberdeen city centre compare with:
Glasgow
Dundee
Perth
Inverness
Other Cities
Count
% of total
Count
% of total
Count
% of total
Count
% of total
Count
% of total
much better
22
4%
21
4%
9
2%
17
3%
497
95%
better
76
15%
107
21%
80
15%
77
15%
5
1%
neither better nor worse
68
13%
66
13%
68
13%
74
14%
2
0%
worse
125
24%
90
17%
56
11%
57
11%
9
2%
much worse
41
8%
21
4%
12
2%
18
3%
7
1%
don't know/unsure
189
36%
216
41%
296
57%
278
53%
1
0%
note: percentages are based on a total of 521 respondents
5
% of area
total
27%
55%
18%
100%
Table 14
Section C - Which improvements would be most likely to encourage you to visit Aberdeen City Centre more often?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
total
total
total
total
total
total
improved range of
43
36%
104
39%
34
40%
3
23%
14
38%
198
38%
shops
introduction of more
22
18%
47
18%
16
19%
1
8%
8
22%
94
18%
big name retailers
more restaurants and
20
17%
48
18%
6
7%
0
0%
1
3%
75
14%
cafes
improved range of
19
16%
32
12%
8
10%
1
8%
3
8%
63
12%
other entertainment
services
improved access by
13
11%
59
22%
23
27%
1
8%
7
19%
103
20%
public transport
improved access by
14
12%
37
14%
20
24%
4
31%
8
22%
83
16%
car
easier pedestrian
55
45%
102
38%
23
27%
6
46%
19
51%
205
39%
access
improved safety for
44
36%
92
35%
31
37%
2
15%
10
27%
179
34%
pedestrians
improved cleanliness
39
32%
86
32%
21
25%
3
23%
15
41%
164
31%
more attractive
31
26%
55
21%
16
19%
3
23%
10
27%
115
22%
streetscape
other factor
8
7%
26
10%
13
15%
3
23%
4
11%
54
10%
note: columns do not sum to 100% as respondents were able to give more than one answer to the question. Percentages given are based on the number of respondents,
rather than the number of responses to the question.
6
Table 15
Section D - Are the proposed changes to Union Street likely to make the city centre a more attractive place to visit?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
yes - much more
61
50%
122
46%
20
24%
6
46%
21
attractive
yes - more attractive
47
39%
121
45%
55
65%
5
38%
16
neither more nor less
7
6%
15
6%
7
8%
2
15%
0
attractive
no - less attractive
3
2%
5
2%
1
1%
0
0%
0
no - much less
3
2%
3
1%
1
1%
0
0%
0
attractive
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
Total
% of area
Count
total
57%
230
43%
0%
244
31
47%
6%
0%
0%
9
7
2%
1%
100%
521
100%
Table 16
Section D - How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact on the frequency of your visits to Aberdeen city centre?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
total
increase significantly
22
18%
43
16%
8
10%
4
31%
8
22%
85
increase slightly
37
31%
100
38%
26
31%
4
31%
11
30%
178
not likely to change
59
49%
117
44%
49
58%
5
38%
18
49%
248
decrease slightly
3
2%
4
2%
0
0%
0
0%
0
0%
7
decrease significantly
0
0%
2
1%
1
1%
0
0%
0
0%
3
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
100%
521
7
% of area
total
44%
% of area
total
16%
34%
48%
1%
1%
100%
Table 17
Section D - How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact on the average length of visits to Aberdeen city centre?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
total
16
13%
27
10%
6
7%
1
8%
4
11%
54
increase slightly
43
36%
110
41%
29
35%
5
38%
9
24%
196
61
50%
126
47%
47
56%
7
54%
23
62%
264
decrease slightly
1
1%
1
0%
1
1%
0
0%
1
3%
4
0
0%
2
1%
1
1%
0
0%
0
0%
3
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
100%
521
% of area
total
10%
38%
51%
1%
1%
100%
Table 18
Section D - How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact the on mode of transport used to visit the city centre?
Mode of transport
Car
Bus
Train
Taxi
Walking
Cycling
count
% of total
count
% of total
count
% of total
count
% of total
count
% of total
count
responses
responses
responses
responses
responses
5
1%
10
2%
3
1%
0
0%
9
2%
0
increase slightly
21
5%
74
16%
4
1%
1
0%
27
6%
5
381
87%
379
80%
406
98%
403
99%
411
92%
401
decrease slightly
28
6%
8
2%
2
0%
3
1%
1
0%
0
5
1%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
1
Total responses
440
100%
472
100%
416
100%
408
100%
449
100%
407
% of total
responses
0%
1%
99%
0%
0%
100%
8
Table 19
Section D - How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact on activities undertaken during visits?
Activity
increase
increase not likely to decrease
decrease
total
significantly
slightly
change
slightly
significantly responses
count
9
66
431
3
1
510
2%
13%
85%
1%
0%
100%
Shopping for clothes & shoes
count
26
5%
127
25%
359
70%
2
0%
1
0%
515
100%
Other non-food shopping
count
13
3%
98
19%
398
78%
2
0%
1
0%
512
100%
Using services (banks, travel agents count
etc)
count
Other entertainment
count
9
2%
38
7%
13
3%
41
8%
157
31%
81
16%
460
90%
317
62%
409
81%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
1
0%
512
100%
514
100%
505
100%
Passing through / window shopping
count
16
3%
113
22%
376
74%
2
0%
2
0%
509
100%
Walking to work / meetings
count
7
1%
23
5%
471
94%
0
0%
1
0%
502
100%
Sitting outside
count
60
12%
166
33%
281
55%
0
0%
1
0%
508
100%
9
Table 20
Section D - Following pedestrianisation, which part of the city centre are you likely to use most during visits to the area?
Area of Residence
Aberdeen City Centre Rest of Aberdeen CityAberdeenshire
Rest of Scotland
Other
Total
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
total
Zone 1
37
31%
89
33%
18
21%
4
31%
14
38%
162
Zone 2
58
48%
135
51%
46
55%
5
38%
15
41%
259
Zone 3
26
21%
42
16%
20
24%
4
31%
8
22%
100
Total responses
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
100%
521
Table 21
Section D - How are the pedestrianisation proposals likely to impact on total spend per visit to the city centre?
Area of Residence
Rest of Scotland
Other
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
% of area
Count
total
total
total
total
increase more than
2
2%
1
0%
1
1%
0
0%
0
100%
increase 50-100%
3
2%
10
4%
3
4%
1
8%
1
increase 25-50%
11
9%
24
9%
8
10%
1
8%
4
increase 10-25%
22
18%
53
20%
18
21%
2
15%
10
increase up to 10%
22
18%
55
21%
17
20%
1
8%
7
60
50%
121
45%
35
42%
8
62%
15
decrease up to 10%
0
0%
0
0%
1
1%
0
0%
0
decrease 10-25%
1
1%
1
0%
0
0%
0
0%
0
decrease 25-50%
0
0%
0
0%
1
1%
0
0%
0
decrease 50-100%
0
0%
1
0%
0
0%
0
0%
0
121
100%
266
100%
84
100%
13
100%
37
10
% of area
total
0%
3%
11%
27%
19%
41%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
Total
Count
% of area
total
31%
50%
19%
100%
4
% of area
total
1%
18
48
105
102
239
1
2
1
1
521
3%
9%
20%
20%
46%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
A PPENDIX D
PROFILE OF BUSINESSES INTERVIEWED
Table 1
Completed Interviews by Sector and Zone
Zone 1a
Zone 1b
Business Services
1
Entertainment/Visitor
2
Attractions
Hotels and Catering
1
Retail
8
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas
4
and Other Industries
TOTAL
9
7
NB: Zone 1a = Union St East (Bridge Street to Castlegate)
Zone 1b = Shiprow – North Esplanade
Zone 2 = Belmont St – Bon Accord Centre
Zone 4 = City Centre West (Bridge Street to Albyn Place)
Zone 2
Zone 4
TOTAL
2
5
1
6
5
% of
Interviews
16%
13%
1
6
3
4
5
18
4
13%
47%
11%
9
13
38
100%
Table 2
Interviews by Sector and Business Type
Sole trader Indep
- Indep single site branches
elsewhere
Business Services
0
2
0
0
3
1
Hotels and Catering
0
0
1
Retail
0
2
4
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and 0
3
1
Other Industries
TOTAL
0
10
7
1
Branch/
subsidiary
Other
TOTAL
3
1
4
9
0
1
0
0
2
0
6
5
5
17
4
17
3
37
Table 3
No. Permanent Employees by Sector
FT
PT
TOTAL
Business Services
32
178
146
Average
employment
30
119
133
252
Hotels and Catering
119
138
257
Retail
927
1,112
2,709
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and 172
3
175
other industries
Grand Total
1,483
1,418
3,571
NB: Results when Shopping centres are excluded: Retail average = 133 employees; Grand
employees
Table 4
Number of businesses by Turnover Size band
£0-24k £25£50£10049k
99k
249k
Business Services
1
1
Entertainment/
Visitor Attractions
Hotels and Catering
1
Retail
1
Manufacturing,
Oil
and Gas and other
industries
Grand Total
1
3
£250499k
1
2
3
2
£500749k
1
£750999k
£1m3m
50
51
159
44
97
total average = 77
over
£3m
3
would not
disclose
3
1
3
2
2
1
10
3
5
16
1
3
4
Table 5
Turnover change in past three years,
Number of responses by sector
Nature of business
Growth of over Growth of
10%
than 10%
Business Services
2
1
Hotels and Catering
2
Retail
7
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and other 3
industries
Grand Total
15
less No Change Decline of Decline of
up to 10% more than
10%
3
1
2
3
1
1
3
2
4
10
9
1
Table 6
Mode of transport used for deliveries to customers/from suppliers
Number of responses by sector
Road only
Rail
Business Services
6
1
5
Hotels and Catering
5
Retail
17
Manufacturing, Oil and Gas and other industries
Grand Total
NB: Business were not restricted to one response
4
37
Sea
1
Air
1
1
1
1
3
1
2
CURRENT PERCEPTIONS OF ABERDEEN CITY CENTRE AS A PLACE TO DO
BUSINESS
Table 7
How satisfied are you with transport network in Aberdeen City Centre?
Very satisfied
Satisfied
Business Services
2
3
Hotels and Catering
Retail
Grand Total
2
4
1
9
3
3
3
7
2
18
not satisfied
1
2
1
5
1
10
Table 8
How would you assess your location in Aberdeen City Centre as a place to do business in terms of
the following factors?
(% of responses; all sectors)
Strongly positive Positive
Neutral
Negative
Strongly
Negative
Access to customers
27%
30%
27%
8%
8%
Access to suppliers
8%
32%
41%
11%
8%
8%
35%
11%
27%
19%
Accessibility
by
Public 35%
41%
22%
0%
3%
Transport
24%
49%
22%
5%
0%
Availablity of labour
19%
35%
19%
19%
8%
19%
27%
24%
16%
14%
Property costs
3%
19%
38%
25%
16%
Overall attractiveness of 13%
25%
28%
9%
25%
area
Figure 1
Current perceptions of Aberdeen City Centre as a place to do business
Property costs
Positive
Neutral
Accessibility by Public
Transport
Negative
Access to suppliers
Access to customers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of responses
4
Table 9
Do you agree or disagree with the statement:
“Trading conditions at these premises are adversely affected by…”
(% of responses)
Strongly
Agree
Neutral
Agree
High vols of vehicle traffic on US
0%
15%
27%
Poor quality pedestrian environment on 7%
56%
11%
US
Poor pedestrian access from bus/train 12%
27%
0%
station to US
Poor access across US
19%
30%
11%
Narrow footways on US
19%
27%
19%
Unsafe pedest. Environment on US
20%
28%
16%
Disagree
38%
19%
Strongly
Disagree
19%
7%
50%
12%
30%
31%
32%
11%
4%
4%
Figure 2
"Trading conditions at these premises are adversely affected by…"
Unsafe pedest. Environ
Narrow footways
Agree
Poor access across US
Neutral
Poor pedestrian access to
bus/train
Disagree
Poor quality pedestrian
environment
High vols of vehicle traffic
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of responses
5
IMPACT OF USP PROPOSALS
Table 10
business?
(% of responses, by sector)
YesYes
- No
No-less Nomuch
more
impact
much
more
less
Business Services
20%
40%
20%
20%
0%
20%
40%
0%
40%
0%
Hotels and Catering
50%
50%
0%
0%
0%
Retail
76%
6%
6%
6%
6%
25%
25%
25%
25%
0%
Grand Total
51%
23%
9%
14%
3%
Table 11
business?
(% of responses, by Zone)
Yes-much more Yes - more
No impact
No-less
No-much less
Zone 1a
88%
13%
0%
0%
0%
Zone 1b
29%
14%
14%
43%
0%
Zone 2
50%
25%
0%
25%
0%
Zone 4
42%
33%
17%
0%
8%
TOTAL
51%
23%
9%
14%
3%
Table 12
How will USP affect your business in terms of the following factors?
(% of responses; all sectors)
Strongly
Positive
Neutral
positive
Access to customers
17%
17%
49%
Access to suppliers
3%
3%
63%
3%
3%
31%
Accessibility by Public Transport
6%
11%
56%
23%
31%
46%
0%
6%
91%
0%
6%
71%
Property costs
0%
17%
60%
33%
27%
27%
6
Negative
11%
11%
39%
17%
0%
3%
20%
23%
6%
Strongly
Negative
6%
20%
25%
11%
0%
0%
3%
0%
6%
Figure 3
How will USP affect Aberdeen City Centre in terms of these factors?
Property costs
Positive
Neutral
Accessibility by Public
Transport
Negative
Access to suppliers
Access to customers
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of responses
Table 13
What is the likely impact on your business of the following factors?
(% of responses)
Strongly
Positive
Neutral
positive
improved access across US
40%
36%
24%
improved access to and from 12%
38%
46%
bus/rail
loss of direct access from cars
4%
4%
50%
improvements to pedes. Environ 36%
44%
12%
improvements to street furniture 31%
50%
8%
improved range of shops
27%
38%
23%
improved pedes. Safety
46%
42%
0%
7
Negative
0%
0%
Strongly
Negative
0%
4%
27%
8%
12%
12%
12%
15%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Figure 4
What impact are the following factors likely to have on your business?
improved pedes. Safety
improved range of shops
improvements to street
furniture
Positive
improvements to pedes.
Environ
Neutral
Negative
loss of direct access from cars
improved access to and from
bus/rail
improved access across US
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of responses
Table 14
Is USP likely to have an impact on the turnover of your business?
Yes
Business Services
0%
60%
Hotels and Catering
20%
Retail
82%
0%
Grand Total
49%
8
No
100%
40%
80%
18%
100%
51%
Table 15
Is USP likely to have an impact on the turnover of your business?
Yes
Zone 1a
75%
Zone 1b
29%
Zone 2
78%
Zone 4
23%
TOTAL
49%
Table 16
If yes, by how much would you expect turnover levels to change?
Growth Growth
of over of
less
10%
than
10%
Business Services
0%
0%
33%
33%
Hotels and Catering
0%
0%
Retail
18%
55%
0%
0%
Grand Total
19%
44%
No
25%
71%
22%
77%
51%
Remain Decline Decline
the same of up to of more
10%
than
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33%
50%
50%
0%
0%
9%
18%
0%
0%
0%
6%
13%
19%
Table 17
If yes, by how much would you expect turnover levels to change?
Growth of over Growth of less Remain
the Decline of up to Decline of more
10%
than 10%
same
10%
than 10%
Zone 1a
20%
60%
0%
20%
0%
Zone 1b
50%
0%
0%
0%
50%
Zone 2
20%
60%
0%
0%
20%
Zone 4
0%
25%
25%
25%
25%
TOTAL
19%
44%
6%
13%
19%
9
Table 18
Would you expect to change the nature of your business as a result of USP?
(% of responses)
Yes
No
Business Services
0%
100%
40%
60%
Hotels and Catering
40%
60%
Manufacturing
0%
100%
Oil and Gas
0%
100%
Retail
50%
50%
Transport
0%
100%
Total
35%
65%
Table 19
Are these changes likely to have an impact on employment in your business?
(% of responses)
Yes
Business Services
0%
40%
Hotels and Catering
40%
Manufacturing
0%
Oil and Gas
0%
Retail
50%
Transport
0%
Grand Total
35%
No
100%
60%
60%
100%
100%
50%
100%
65%
Table 20
If yes, by how much would you expect employment to change as a result of these changes?
Growth of Growth of Remain
Decline of Decline of
over 10% less than the same up to 10% more than
10%
10%
Business Services
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Hotels and Catering
0%
33%
33%
33%
0%
Manufacturing
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Oil and Gas
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Retail
8%
42%
25%
8%
17%
Transport
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Grand Total
7%
40%
27%
13%
13%
10
Table 21
Do you agree/disagree with the statement:
“The USP proposals are likely to help attract more day visitors and tourists to Aberdeen City
Centre”
(% of responses)
Strongly
Agree
Neither
Disagree
Strongly
Don't
agree
agree
nor
disagree
know/Unsur
disagree
e
Business Services
17%
67%
17%
0%
0%
0%
Entertainment/Visitor
20%
40%
0%
0%
40%
0%
Attractions
Hotels and Catering
0%
50%
25%
0%
25%
0%
Manufacturing
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Oil and Gas
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
Retail
35%
35%
12%
6%
12%
0%
Transport
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
Grand Total
22%
44%
11%
3%
19%
0%
11
APPENDIX E
APPENDIX E
POTENTIAL IMPACT OF PEDESTRIANISATION: REFERENCES*
§
The Pedestrianisation Myth, Erdman Lewis Research & Consultancy, December 1994
§
Impact of improving the attractiveness of town centres, Janne Sandahl & Christer
Lindh, 1995, Transport Policy, Vol 2, No 1, pp 51-56
§
Impact of Pedestrainisation and Traffic Calming on Retailing, Carmen Hass-Klau,
1993, Transport Policy, Vol 1, No 1, pp 21,31
§
Vitality & Viability – The Town Centre on Foot, Tony Fyson, 1995, Public Service &
Local Government, pg. 33, March 1995
§
Taking The Pulse of Pedestrianised Streets, Martyn Chase, 1994, The Urban Street
Environment, June/July 1994, p 38
§
The Economics of Pedestrianisation, Ian Dickins & Andrew Ford, 1996, Town and
Country Planning, March 1996, pp 92-93
§
Why Traffic Management in Town Centres? Tim Pharoh, 2001, Planning in London,
January 2001, pp 34-36
§
Paved With Gold – A Study of Economic Impact of Pedestrianisation and its
Relevance to Leicester, Les Newby, 1992
§
Car Restraining Measures and Town Centre Businesses: A Case Study, Carmen Hass
Klau, Transportation Planning Systems, 1994, Vol 2 No 4, 1994
§
Parking Management and Pedestrianisation as Strategies for Successful City Centres,
Rolf Monheim, 1996
* - Note that this listing includes some references not explicitly cited in Section 2.
1

The Economic Activity Location Impact (EALI) study

Transcription

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