2016 Trend Predictions copy

™
TRENDWATCH
2016 TREND PREDICTIONS
From the new shape of shopping local to mushroom-infused teas, SPINS looks ahead to the
trends that will ring in the new year.
SPINS’ Content Development team reflects on the current and future outlook of the Natural and Specialty space, addressing broader
industry trends as well as areas ripe for innovation. Our 2016 predictions feature an array of budding prospects to reach consumers’
progressing tastes and standards, including a fresh take on the local food movement, up and coming specialty flavors, and exciting
developments in functional ingredients.
The Evolving Shape of Local
In years past, “local food” has been characterized as potatoes, tomatoes and anything green that could only be
obtained at your neighborhood farmers market. Moving production to the city center from the outlying counties,
packaged produce companies across the country are actively constructing indoor vertical farms, rooftop
gardens and greenhouses to expand city dweller’s accessibility to produce options throughout the year.
Chicago (home to SPINS headquarters) is nurturing this next phase of urban agriculture, according to FamilyFarmed founder Jim Slama, representing Chicago’s ‘Good Food’ movement. Look out for more packaged
brands with local-only availability such as Gotham Greens - the world’s largest rooftop greenhouse situated on
top of the LEED Platinum Certified Method products factory right here in the Windy City. Local Foods, a Chicagobased food hub, supports Midwestern farmers and food artisans in their 17,000-square-foot public market.
SPINS has already identified ancient grains as a growing Natural Products Industry trend, and with more chefs
making the move to source grains locally, the farm-to-table movement is experiencing a second life with new
meaning. According to renowned chef Dan Barber in his new book The Third Plate, when it comes to local and
organic, idolizing one seasonal harvest – wheat for example – out of an entire symbiotic system is a significant
misstep. Doing so ignores the artistry of cover cropping and crop rotation to fix pest, fungal and soil problems,
time-tested techniques that also yield the best flavor. As food advocates dig into this engaging read, expect
more value-added opportunities for these organic inputs, such as millet, rye and barley that are otherwise sold
cheaply as animal feed. Local food purveyors are beginning to understand these hardworking cover crops can be
employed in the value chain, and restauranteurs are utilizing what the evolving sustainable landscape provides.
DOLLAR GROWTH OF
ANCIENT GRAINS
+5%
NATURAL CHANNEL
+17%
CONVENTIONAL
MULTI OUTLET
(NATURAL PRODUCTS ONLY)
Be on the lookout for handmade, small batch, artisan and stone-ground products embodying crafting techniques long revered by
locavores. Originally unique to the Specialty Gourmet universe, regional artisanal products are making their mark in all channels as
entrepreneurs continue adapting small scale production to supply retail stores – without losing quality. Brands that stay dedicated to
their home state are popping up more and more, answering growing consumer demand for foods that also match production values
important to them: low carbon footprint, organic, biodynamic, even Certified B Corporations™. As artisanal characteristics layered with
traceability standards continue to shape the Natural Products Industry, these concepts undoubtedly make an impact on non-food
segments. The Slow Fashion Movement responds to labor abuses rampant in global fiber markets, raising consumer awareness
around the origin of clothing - much like the parent Slow Food Movement strives to do for farmers. Fair trade is a recognizable means
to support and strengthen export economies while pressure for domestically produced organic cotton is mounting, along with more
interest in legalized hemp production in the US.
Call us today at (312) 281-5100 or visit SPINS.com
™
TRENDWATCH
2016 TREND PREDICTIONS
Specialty Speaks
Artisan Donuts
Adding to the growing appreciation for microbreweries, independent coffee roasters and
rugged, handmade denim is the arrival of artisan donut shops. Having fallen from grace,
cupcakes are a bit too dainty and fussy for this day and age, leaving artisan donuts in its
place with a number of small, local and regional donut operations. With “cronut” added to
the foodie lexicon and vegan offerings emerging, there’s something old fashioned and
hearty about a yeast-raised donut that fits with the current zeitgeist.
Old Wisdom with New Roots
The Paleo diet brings us back in time, before agriculture and the more-recent industrialization of our food supply;
at its core, the lifestyle represents a connection to our ancestral roots. Although Paleo is quickly becoming
mainstream, it has set the stage for indigenous and heirloom foods that resurrect traditional processing methods. The ‘decolonized diet’ is gaining attention, and is based on food choices that represent the Native American
culture centuries ago as an attempt to stem the tide of debilitating health issues prominent in that population due
to a diet overripe with commodities such as wheat and sugar. The millennia-old Ayurveda philosophy on digestive and immune system wellness continues to gain credence in Western culture. Recognizing biologically
compatible foods, whole foods, and seasonal eating for wellness is poised to attract a bigger following in the
coming year.
DOLLAR GROWTH OF
PALEO POSITIONED
PRODUCTS
+78%
NATURAL CHANNEL
+104%
CONVENTIONAL
MULTI OUTLET
(NATURAL PRODUCTS ONLY)
Minimizing Waste While Maximizing Profit
Similar to the tail-to-snout virtue of local sourcing, finding opportunities for discarded scraps is growing into a
global trend, like newly envisioned coffee flour. The coffee cherry or surrounding pulp of coffee beans is pulverized into powder – creating new revenue streams for producers and introducing a nutritious and distinctly
flavorful ingredient to the global menu. Fun fact: chefs at Google’s headquarters have even been experimenting with this gluten-free option in breads, pastas and baked goods! With the Obama Administration’s recent
waste reduction plan, complemented by a new bill to standardize “best-by” practices on products and establish
markets for “ugly” produce in school food, we’ll continue to see more brands establishing and advertising the
same goals. The market is ripe to get on board – banana and grape flour anyone?
Free From Claims in Full Force
Be it for diet, lifestyle or environmental reasons, Natural and Specialty Gourmet consumers often read labels
and research brands in more depth than the average conventional consumer. A rise in the variety of free-from
ingredient details on product labels is connected to consumer demand for transparency. Igniting awareness in
2015, Consumer Reports released a statement challenging the use of caramel coloring in products claiming to
be “natural,” prompting formulation changes across the industry. These same shoppers are not to be duped by
artificial sweeteners either, which are known to negatively affect gut microbiome health; did you know sucralose was originally developed as a pesticide? Taking a proactive approach, brands are getting a jump on controversial ingredients, and highlighting the lack thereof on product labels. Emerging claims in packaged goods
include: carrageenan-free, xanthan gum-free, and palm-oil free - which conveys conscientious sourcing
practices to prevent deforestation and endangerment of orangutan habitats. Free-from claims have become
the norm, and will only continue to gain momentum in the coming year.
Data Source: SPINSscan Natural and Conventional Multi Oulet (powered by IRI) 52 weeks ending 11/1/2015. UPC coded items only.
Growth based on dollar volume for the current period versus year ago and is based on currently coded items.
www.spins.com | 312.281.5100
™
TRENDWATCH
2016 TREND PREDICTIONS
Innovations in Core Natural
Craft Beverages Make Their Move
From coffee shops and restaurants, to health food stores and breweries, the beverage market will see tremendous
potential for 2016. Once only the prize of home-fermenters and Natural and Specialty markets, kombucha has
officially crossed over to mainstream. So how do brands stand out in this space? It’s all about layering flavor with
functional content. Intentionally fermented to higher alcohol levels and complemented by traditional beer brewing ingredients such as hops, yeasts, and malts, kombucha ale is gaining wider recognition. Also borrowing from
the beer aisle is hops-infused water, riding the wave of the “hopped” flavor trend. The vinegary taste of kombucha has prepared consumers’ palates for drinking vinegars such as shrubs, and their emerging ready-to-drink
counterparts including switchel, elevating the classic cocktail mixer from the 1800’s into the 21st century. Herbal
craft beers have also been making a splash by teetering on the line of functional beverages, with botanical
additions like schizandra, holy basil, chamomile, lemongrass and more.
DOLLAR GROWTH OF
KOMBUCHA
+16%
NATURAL CHANNEL
+65%
CONVENTIONAL
MULTI OUTLET
(NATURAL PRODUCTS ONLY)
Originally a novelty in craft beer, nitrogen infusion has crossed over to ready-to-drink cold brew coffee, resulting in a bubbly, creamy
concoction reminiscent of your favorite stout. Oaking, another flavor enhancing technique common to beer and wine processing, has
recently made waves in the wider beverage industry. Oak-aged and brewed are popping up in cider, cold-brew coffee, tea and kombucha… is there any limit to its bounds? Not yet. Surely, 2016 is to be declared the year of “oaked beverages!”
More Options for Meat Free Lifestyles
While grain, soy-based and pea-based meat alternatives have been the go-to mock meats in the past, an emerging ingredient with a shot at long-term success is jackfruit. From dried pieces to syrup-packed cans, jackfruit has
explored several more applications such as chips, flavoring, tea, and most recently appearing as meatless main
dishes. When unripe, this tropical fruit has a chewy, stringy texture that makes a great meat substitute. Having
been featured in a number of restaurants in recent years, it is now becoming a star in Natural and Specialty
grocery markets. Esteemed as the largest tree fruit in the world with a single tree yielding two to three tons
yearly, this fiber-packed fruit will surely continue to have a following.
http://www.foodpolitics.com/2015/07/good-news-fda-proposes-daily-value-for-added-sugars-10-of-calories/
Medicinal Mushrooms Make the Grade
The humble fungi - especially shiitake, reishi, cordyceps and chaga - have an extensive
history of supporting health and vitality. In prior years, medicinal mushrooms were found
mainly in dietary supplement form but are now commanding consumer attention in
ready-to-drink tea. Another reason for piqued interest in mushrooms is an uptick in wild
mushroom foraging. Plant-based eaters looking for a good alternative to the established
bone broth trend can now turn to mushroom broths. As more people search for ways to
reduce animal-based choices, attention towards mushrooms’ sustainable, hearty nourishment shows no signs of subsiding. Medicinal mushrooms are also starting to pop up in the
body care section for their healing properties in anti-aging creams and serums.
A surge in sales of products with various
types of mushrooms as primary ingredients
demonstrates demand in the Natural
Channel in the last 12 weeks:
CHAGA 46%
CORDYCEPS 21%
REISHI 89%
SHIITAKE 55%
Alternative Proteins Offer Environmental Benefits
Garbanzo beans that fix nitrogen in the soil have been featured in new category breakouts. Progressing from hummus and vegan
entrees, to crunchy snacks, chips and recently pasta, this legume encompasses several macro-trends – gluten free, grain-free and
protein-packed. Algal protein is a cutting-edge ingredient recently introduced to the market as a plant-based egg replacer to the joy
of vegans and allergen avoidant consumers alike. Environmentally-minded buyers will appreciate algae’s positive impact on the ozone:
algae is an efficient carbon sequestering machine. Follow Your Hearts’ Vegan Egg is among the first generation of algae-based egg
replacers, and is labeled gluten free, soy free, dairy free and non-GMO. The question is, can it be used to bake a sponge cake? Other
sea-dwelling species are splashing onto the scene: ocean filtering bivalves such as oysters, clams, and mussels are becoming the
talking point for identifying more sustainable seafood options alongside lesser-regarded fish species such as red fish, dog fish, mackerel, and sardines. Additionally, coastal towns are making waves with a dock-to-dish mantra as a means to source local supplies based
on what’s in season.
Data Source: SPINSscan Natural and Conventional Multi Oulet (powered by IRI) 52 weeks ending 11/1/2015. UPC coded items only.
Growth based on dollar volume for the current period versus year ago and is based on currently coded items.
www.spins.com | 312.281.5100
TRENDWATCH
2016 TREND PREDICTIONS
Cross Over Trend Predictions
Flavor Forward
Ethnic spices from around the world are tantalizing our palates towards diverse and specialty flavors. Some spices to keep tabs on are
dukka, harissa and sumac (North Africa), sambal (Southeast Asia), gochujang (Korea) and ghost pepper (India). Of particular interest to
the spicy-loving crowd, ghost pepper has emerged as a specialty flavor in sauces, salsas, infused honey, chips, jerky and nuts. While
Korean BBQ is a favorite ethnic experience – think table grills, billowing smoke and enough garlic to cleanse your system –2nd generation Koreans are pioneering fusion style restaurants where staples like kimchi and gochujang are introduced to wider audiences.
http://www.foodpolitics.com/2015/07/good-news-fda-proposes-daily-value-for-added-sugars-10-of-calories/
Cannabis
Cannabidiol (CBD) is a heavily studied cannabis extract that offers a bevy of therapeutic possibilities, such as
treating antibiotic resistant infection, epilepsy and schizophrenia. As an emerging functional ingredient in 2015,
SPINS saw the opportunity to add it to the Product Library and now counts CBD among its nearly 600 Primary
Ingredient values. As cannabis for integrative medicinal therapies picks up across the nation, and in conjunction
with growing legal status, expect to see more crossover from dietary supplements towards healing balms and
infused beverages. We may even see a grab-n-go snack innovation come forth from this trend - the Lifestyle
and Wellness Bars segment is usually up for a new challenge.
HPP
Cold-pressed and High Pressure Pasteurized (HPP) juices are crossing over from natural
to mainstream grocers, and we expect to see this trend continue. Pecan, walnut and
macadamia nut milk are more recent players in this space. As dairy-free milk varieties and
blends continue to evolve, HPP and sprouted have been recognized as emerging
attributes in the segment. HPP technology is not solely attributed to beverages anymore,
as cross over into grocery segments has started taking place, like Once Upon a Farm’s
HPP baby food. Pairing quality and local/regional appeal, we predict more brands using
this type of processing will steer away from national distribution and focus on staying
regional.
DOLLAR GROWTH OF
HPP BEVERAGES
+18%
NATURAL CHANNEL
+101%
CONVENTIONAL
MULTI OUTLET
(NATURAL PRODUCTS ONLY)
Data Source: SPINSscan Natural and Conventional Multi Oulet (powered by IRI) 52 weeks ending 11/1/2015. UPC coded items only.
Growth based on dollar volume for the current period versus year ago and is based on currently coded items.
www.spins.com | 312.281.5100
™
TRENDWATCH
2016 TREND PREDICTIONS
Supplement Success
Medium Chain Triglycerides (MCTs)
Usually sourced from coconuts or palm kernels, MCTs are not stored in the body but
instantly used by the liver as fuel for energy and mental clarity. With origins in sports
nutrition and weight loss protocols, MCTs have reached new heights, becoming wildly
popularized on account of the BulletProof Diet™. While occurring naturally in whole foods,
isolated MCTs are now featured additions in ready-to-drink cold-brew coffee creations,
smoothies, water and energy bars. Healthy fats are on consumers’ minds and innovative
use is expanding, like grass-fed butter paired with MCTs in cold brew coffee. In 2016 we
expect to see MCTs start to merge with the bone broth trend, as added functional boosts
are becoming more inventive in that segment, and in other inspired ways.
Inflammation in Focus
Considered a cornerstone underlying the majority of disease states, inflammation is recognized as manageable through diet and lifestyle modifications. As
more consumers are searching for ways to become proactive about their health,
we are set to see an increase in demand for anti-inflammatory products, by
pro-active millennials and baby boomers alike. Recent research on inflammation
is driving this trend. For example, a double blind, placebo-controlled study from
2014 in Biological Psychiatry found omega-3s may benefit populations with an
increased likelihood of depression due to inflammation. While essential fatty
acids may be derived from a number of plant and animal foods, botanical
sources continue to be revered by consumers following a plant-based diet. On
the heels of the long-popular flax and chia seed, industry attention is turning to
algae, black seed and perilla seed for omegas. Body care companies are also
taking suit with category cross-over anti-inflammatory ingredients (aside from
the letter vitamins) like black seed, turmeric, chia and moringa - found in lotions,
serums, body washes and bar soap.
DOLLAR GROWTH OF PRODUCTS MARKETED
FOR PAIN & INFLAMMATION
+9%
+8%
NATURAL
CHANNEL
CONVENTIONAL
MULTI OUTLET
(NATURAL PRODUCTS ONLY)
Current Nutrition Label versus the Proposed
Label which includes a line item for added sugars
Current Label
Proposed Label
Excess sugar in the diet has been well-established to exacerbate inflammation. Added sugar and artificial sweeteners have been implicated as adding
‘fuel to the fire,’ perpetuating an imbalanced gut microbiome. In March 2016,
the FDA is expected to release its final rule on whether to declare added
sugars on the Nutrition Facts panel – still a controversial issue. Already prominent in the core Natural universe, this topic has further kindled mainstream
interest in the use of natural low/no calorie sweeteners like stevia, monk fruit,
non-GMO erythritol and birch-sourced xylitol. As consumers aim to maintain
a balanced inflammatory process, limiting or replacing dietary triggers is of
utmost importance.
Data Source: SPINSscan Natural and Conventional Multi Oulet (powered by IRI) 52 weeks ending 11/1/2015. UPC coded items only.
Growth based on dollar volume for the current period versus year ago and is based on currently coded items.
www.spins.com | 312.281.5100