4Q 2014

Transcription

4Q 2014
Research & Forecast
Report
Philippines
1Q 2015
Growth momentum
to continue in 2015
Despite a lackluster performance during the first half of 2014,
the Philippine economy finished strongly during the fourth
quarter, ending with a full year growth rate of 6.1%. This strong
performance is expected to carry over to 2015, as spending
from on-going infrastructure projects and robust domestic
consumption continue to support growth. The IMF has
already adjusted its 2015 GDP forecast upwards by 10 basis
points (+6.7%) and JP Morgan by 90 basis points (+6.4%). The
government, on the other hand, aims to reach growth rates of
between 7 and 8% in 2015.
Office
Increasing demand for office space has ramped up the
construction timelines of upcoming projects for the year.
Three office buildings totalling 39,500 sq m of usable area
were completed as of 1Q 2015. Colliers forecasts that at the
end of 2015, close to 576,000 sq m of usable office space will
be delivered, 43% of which will be located in Fort Bonifacio.
Makati CBD vacancy remained stable at 2.18% amidst a slight
increase in vacancy in Grade B office buildings. Still, rental rates
continued to appreciate as availability of office space remains
limited.
Accelerating success.
Residential
Four residential condominiums were completed in the major
Metro Manila CBDs during the first quarter, delivering 1,649
new units across major business locations in Metro Manila.
However, construction delays at several condominium projects
will push back the bulk of the expected new supply for 2015. By
year’s end, 8,253 residential units will be completed. With few
new developments to absorb the still strong demand, rents and
resale prices are expected to further appreciate.
Retail
The country’s continued strong domestic consumption had
Metro Manila’s retail stock increasing by 182,000 sq m in
the first quarter to 5.9 million sq m; newly opened malls are
mainly classified as neighbourhood or district centers due to
decreasing opportunities to find large available land parcels in
the metropolis. While renovations in existing malls have led to a
reduction in occupancy, the opening of expansions in the same
malls has mitigated the effect of the increase in vacancies. As
such, retail rents in Makati and Ortigas further appreciated by
1.6 and 3.2% QoQ, respectively.
Market Indicators
OFFICE
RESIDENTIAL
RETAIL
Economic Growth Indicators
Economic Indicators
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Gross National Product
6.10
6.00
6.50
8.40
3.20
Gross Domestic Producta
6.60
4.20
1.10
7.60
3.90
Household Final Consumption
Expenditure
4.60
3.70
2.30
3.40
6.10
Government Final Consumption
Expenditure
6.90
0.30
10.90
4.00
(0.50)
23.40
(8.70)
6.70
(2.70)
(7.80)
Capital Formation
Exports
2012
2013
2014
6.40
7.50
6.30
6.80
7.20
6.10
6.60
5.70
5.40
1.00
15.50
7.70
1.80
31.60
8.10
(5.30)
29.90
1.10
21.00
(4.20)
8.50
(1.10)
12.10
5.80
Imports
1.70
1.60
(8.10)
22.50
0.20
4.90
5.40
AHFFb
4.70
3.20
(0.70)
(0.20)
2.70
2.80
1.10
1.90
Industry
5.80
4.80
(1.90)
11.60
2.30
7.30
9.30
7.50
Services
7.60
4.00
3.40
7.20
5.10
7.40
7.20
6.00
Average Inflationc
2.90
8.30
4.10
3.90
4.60
3.20
3.00
4.10
Budget Surplus/Deficit (PHP Bn)
(12.40)
(68.10)
(298.50)
(314.40)
(197.70)
(242.80)
(164.10)
(73.09)
PHP:US$ (Average)
46.10
44.70
47.60
45.10
43.31
42.09
42.45
44.40
Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates (%)
3.40
5.20
4.00
3.70
1.37
1.58
0.32
1.24
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, Bureau of Treasury
Strong 2014 economic growth causes
revision in this year’s forecast
The Philippines continued its phenomenal economic growth
story in 2014, as the economy expanded by 6.1% despite lower
growth rates posted in the first (+5.6%) and third (+5.3%)
quarters. With the economy growing above 6% over the last
three years, the government has proclaimed that the country is
no longer the “sick man of Asia” and has transformed itself into
one of the tiger economies for the next decade. As a result of
strong growth, several organisations have adjusted their forecast
for 2015, with IMF increasing by 10 basis points (+6.7%) and JP
Morgan increasing by 90 basis points (+6.4%). The government,
on the other hand, aims to reach growth rates of between 7 and
8% in 2015.
Exports provided the biggest push in the economic growth
story with both goods (+12.1%) and services (+12.2%)
expanding by double digits in 2014. This could be attributed
to a surging industrial sector, particularly in manufacturing
(+8.1%) and construction-related activities (+8.5%), and a
flourishing Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) industry,
which was able to remit USD18.4 billion in export revenues.
Infrastructure development is also expected to bring in more
avenues for growth as more projects in the Public-Private
Partnership programme are being put up for bids including the
development, operations and maintenance of regional airports.
Domestic consumption continued to sustain the economy
although concerns have been raised after OFW remittances
grew the slowest (2.4%) in the first two months of the year.
The global economic slowdown has caused remittances to
dip, particularly in areas where there is a large concentration
of Filipinos abroad. The government, however, recognised
2
b
a
at constant 2000 prices
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing
c
at constant 2006 prices
that while external shocks could not be controlled, domestic
shocks can be addressed to spur local spending. The inflation
environment remains healthy (2.4%) in the first quarter while
lending rates have stayed at their lowest (4.5 - 6.9%) since last
year, thereby allowing consumers to purchase big ticket items
such as real estate and vehicles, and companies to undergo
massive expansion strategies.
With a burgeoning economy and a healthy property
market over the last few years, real estate loans have grown
substantially as of December 2014, increasing by 24% YoY to
PHP1.04 trillion. Despite the rapid increase, non-performing
loans only amounted to 2.5% of the total real estate portfolio,
the lowest in six years. This may be attributed to the stricter
policies and regulations implemented by the Central Bank to
ensure the stability of the financial sector, by monitoring real
estate activities of universal and commercial banks.
OFW Remittancesa
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
a
as of February 2015
Land Values
Land values post stable growth
Land values in the major CBDs exhibited stable growth during
the period. Average prices in the Makati CBD grew modestly
by 0.9% QoQ to PHP443,750 per sq m. Fort Bonifacio values
ranged between PHP273,000 and 500,000 per sq m, growing
by 1.1% QoQ. For the second straight quarter, Ortigas land
values appreciated the fastest by 1.9% QoQ, at an average price
of PHP161,500 per sq m. Land values are expected to increase
between 6 and 8% in the next 12 months due to strong demand
for land assets in these areas amid increasing scarcity of
available land options.
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Comparative Land Values (Php / sqm)
LOCATION
4Q 2014
Makati CBD
320,000-560,000
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
327,500-560,000
1Q 2016F
0.85
347,595-604,795
% CHANGE (YoY)
7.31
Ortigas Center
122,000-195,000
125,000-198,000
1.89
133,915-215,270
8.11
Fort Bonifacio
265,000-500,000
273,000-500,000
1.05
288,755-542,010
7.47
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Residential licenses off to a slow start
in Q1 2015
HLURB Licenses
The Housing and Land Use Regulatory board issued only 48,411
property licenses in the first quarter, only half of the volume
during the same period a year before (93,562 in 1Q 2014).
Significant decreases were seen in the applications of nearly
all segments with the exception of commercial condominiums
(+189%); industrial (+6%) and commercial subdivisions
(+271%); and farm lots – all non-residential uses. Developers
are still banking on the strong demand for office space with a
near doubling of commercial use property applications.
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
HLURB Licenses to Sell
SEGMENT
Socialized Housing
JAN - MAR '14
JAN - MAR '15
9,820
5,535
% CHANGE YoY
-44%
Low Cost Housing
11,189
9,573
-14%
Mid Income Housing
5,826
3,504
-40%
High Rise Residential
19,738
10,820
-45%
336
972
189%
-
40
-72%
Commercial Condominium
Farm lot
Memorial Park
39,026
11,097
Industrial Subdivision
18
19
6%
Commercial Subdivision
17
63
271%
93,562
48,411
-48%
Total (Philippines)
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
3
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
Office
Fort Bonifacio gains stature as the
premier CBD after Makati
Three office buildings were completed in Metro Manila during
the first quarter, totalling 39,500 sq m of usable area. These
buildings are Wilcon IT Hub (24,100 sq m) and McKinley
Exchange Corporate Centre (9,000 sq m) both in the Greater
Makati Area, and 45 San Miguel (6,400 sq m) in Ortigas Centre.
In 2015, close to 576,000 sq m of usable office space will be
delivered, 63% of which will be located in the Fort Bonifacio and
Makati areas.
Fort Bonifacio has established itself as the next central business
district after the Makati CBD after attracting numerous
multinational companies to locate in the area. Apart from
banking companies like JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank, two of
the largest Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies,
Procter & Gamble and Unilever, are expected to expand their
operations in the area this year. Due to the increasing demand
for office space, developers have ramped up the construction
of their office projects in the CBDs. By 2018, Colliers predicts
that Fort Bonifacio office stock will reach 1.97 million sq m,
delivering an average of 250,000 sq m annually in the four-year
period. With the outsourcing industry expected to carry the
office sector, developers are expected to produce buildings that
are also ideal for BPO companies to attract more demand for
their projects.
Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Comparative Office Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014*
1Q 2015
1Q 2016F
Premium
0.49
0.44
0.18
Grade A
7.70
7.59
4.69
Grade B & Below
0.75
0.83
0.59
All Grades
2.15
2.18
1.41
Overall Makati CBD vacancy remains
stable
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Overall vacancy in the Makati CBD remained stable at 2.18%
during the first quarter of 2015. Premium office space vacancy
declined slightly by 5 basis points, as a vacancy increase in the
smaller office spaces in the Enterprise Centre was offset by
the takeup of 1,120 sq m in Philamlife Tower. Grade A vacancy
was 7.6%, a 10 basis point decline from the previous quarter,
as strong take-up was offset by vacated spaces in Pacific Star
Building and Ayala Life FGU Centre. Meanwhile, some older
Grade B office units were vacated, leading to a slight increase in
vacancy to 0.83%. Given these trends, Colliers predicts that the
overall vacancy in the Makati CBD office sector will continue to
drop as supply remains tight, and shall remain below 2% in the
next 12 months.
Forecast New Office Supply (Net Usable Area)
LOCATION
END OF 2014*
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
TOTAL
Makati CBD
2,842,445
-
-
-
60,200
2,902,645
Ortigas
1,283,209
81,509
28,787
-
32,752
1,426,257
Fort Bonifacio
975,157
246,025
257,599
427,721
65,837
1,972,339
300,264
-
-
28,220
-
328,484
Alabang
378,271
-
53,330
70,563
Mandaluyong
300,183
-
-
101,184
North EDSA - Triangle
310,908
8,185
99,090
-
Eastwood
502,164
401,367
35,618
453,801
Pasay City - Reclamation
186,203
70,377
72,680
46,775
-
376,035
Other Locations**
408,365
170,343
137,118
181,641
86,058
983,525
6,985,005
576,439
648,604
856,104
280,465
Total
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
**
4
9,346,617
revised figures
Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, Quezon City and other fringe locations
*
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
Office rents exhibit stable growth
Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand
Premium rents continued to rally in the first quarter, growing
by 2.2% QoQ to PHP1,175 per sq m per month. Landlords of
Premium office buildings were able to charge more due to
strong demand amid limited availability of space. Meanwhile,
Grade A rents accelerated in the period at 3.2% QoQ. As such,
an average Grade A office space will cost an average monthly
rent of PHP878 per sq m per month. On the other hand, Grade B
rents exhibited slower growth compared to the previous period,
at 1.9% QoQ to PHP673 per sq m per month. Colliers expects
that rental rates in the Makati CBD will grow between by 6.5 and
7.6% over the next 12 months.
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Comparative Rental Rates (Php/sq m/month)
Makati CBD (based on net usable area)
GRADE
Premium
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
1Q 2016F
% CHANGE (YoY)
1,000 - 1,300
1,020 - 1,330
2.17
1,085 - 1,425
6.67
Grade A
695 - 1,005
705 - 1,050
3.24
745 - 1,125
6.53
Grade B
550 - 770
560 - 785
1.89
595 - 850
7.64
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Capital value growth accelerates
during 1Q
Capital value growth in the Makati CBD outpaced rent growth
during the period, as landlords considered the sudden uptick
in average land values two quarters ago. Premium office space
averaged PHP158,000 per sq m, a 2.4% QoQ increase. Grade A
office values, much like rents, appreciated the fastest at 4.1%
QoQ as a result of a higher acquisition price at one of the office
spaces in the area. On the other hand, Grade B capital values
averaged PHP73,500 per sq m, growing by 3.2% QoQ. Colliers
expects that capital value growth will continue to outpace rent
growth in the next 12 months, between 7.5 and 8.6%, as capital
value growth expectations remain more bullish.
Comparative Office Capital Values (Php / sq m)
Makati CBD Office Capital Values
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD (based on net usable area)
GRADE
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
Premium
146,500 - 162,000
148,000 - 168,000
2.43
157,470 - 182,475
7.58
Grade A
83,000 - 113,000
86,000 - 118,000
4.08
91,275 - 127,975
7.48
Grade B
59,000 - 83,500
62,000 - 85,000
3.16
66,880 - 92,810
8.63
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
5
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
1Q 2016F
% CHANGE (YoY)
Residential
Makati CBD Residential Stock
Construction delays push new
residential supply to 2016
Four residential condominiums were completed in the major
Metro Manila CBDs during the first quarter of 2015, offering
1,649 new units to the market. These were Icon Plaza (308 units)
and The Venice Luxury Residences – Bellini Tower (332 units)
at Fort Bonifacio, Park Terraces Tower 1 (370 units) in Makati
and One Shangri-La Place South Tower (639 units) in Ortigas.
Construction delays have pushed bulk of this year’s expected
new supply to 2016. Colliers forecasts that 8, 253 residential
units will be completed in 2015.
Likewise, concerns of a possible oversupply in the
condominium market led developers to delay completions of
their projects. Still, a total of 30,935 residential units are to be
delivered in the next three years with nearly 40% of the figure
expected by 2016. The majority of these units are studio and
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
one bedroom units sizing between 18 to 90 sqm. Meanwhile,
the larger units, from 3 to 5 bedroom units, account for 7.0% of
the new supply with unit cuts of between 100 and 500 square
meters. As such, the influx of these smaller sized units is
expected to create pressure on rental rates and prices.
Forecast Residential New Supply
LOCATION
END 2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
Makati CBD
18,564
1,768
4,857
1,485
Rockwell
4,600
-
-
346
Fort Bonifacio
21,341
3,729
6,599
Ortigas
2018F
2019F
TOTAL
1,072
522
27,746
492
-
5,438
2,979
1,010
407
35,658
15,343
2,756
1,227
573
422
-
20,321
Eastwood
8,266
-
988
-
632
-
9,886
Total
68,114
8,253
13,671
5,383
3,628
929
99,049
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD residential vacancy
further declines
Residential vacancy for Makati CBD slightly declined in the first
quarter 2015 amidst continued strong take up for condominium
units. Likewise, the limited number of new completions for the
period helped pull down vacancy figures; the business district’s
vacancy lowered by 16 basis points to 7.9% largely from the
take up of Grade A buildings, still the preferred property by unit
buyers. However, the delivery of new units in the coming 12
months is expected to push overall vacancy to 11%.
Makati CBD Comparative Residential Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
Luxury
4.4
3.6
Others
8.5
8.6
All Grades
8.1
7.9
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Residential Vacancy
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
6
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
1Q 2016F
11.1
*
revised figures
Lack of developments pushes rates
higher
The lack of new completions coupled with strong take-up
puts upward pressure on rental rates. As such, rates in the
first quarter grew significantly from figures posted in 4Q 2014.
Average monthly rent in the Makati CBD amounted to PHP 848
per sq m for the period, higher by 1.3% QoQ. Similar increases
were seen in Fort Bonifacio (+1.5%) and Rockwell (+1.7%). In
the next 12 months, Colliers expects rents in these locations to
reach between 4.7 and 5.1%.
Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Metro Manila Residential Condominium
Comparative Luxury 3BR Rental Rates (PHP / sq m / month)
LOCATION
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
1Q 2016F
%CHANGE (YoY)
Makati CBD
575 - 1,100
578 - 1,118
1.3
603 - 1,180
5.1
Rockwell
750 - 1,055
755 - 1,080
1.7
800 - 1,124
4.8
Fort Bonifacio
640 - 1,045
660 - 1,050
1.5
688 - 1,102
4.7
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Comparative Residential Lease Rates for
Exclusive Villages (Php / month)
3BR - 4BR, Unfurnished to Semi-Furnished
VILLAGE
LOW
Forbes Park
250,000
600,000
Dasmarinas Village
200,000
500,000
Urdaneta Village
200,000
500,000
Bel-air Village
130,000
300,000
San Lorenzo Village
120,000
280,000
Magallanes Village
90,000
200,000
Ayala Alabang Village
75,000
250,000
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
7
HIGH
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
Comparative Residential Lease Rates (High-Rise)
3BR, Semi Furnished to Fully Furnished
LOCATION
MINIMUM
AVERAGE
MAXIMUM
Apartment Ridge/Roxas Triangle
Rental Range (Php/month)
Average Size (sq m)
130,000
180,000
280,000
250
295
330
120,000
140,000
160,000
180
195
210
125,000
205,000
250,000
185
225
280
120,000
160,000
280,000
120
185
290
105,000
200,000
285,000
120
195
300
Salcedo Village
Rental Range (Php/month)
Average Size (sq m)
Legaspi Village
Rental Range (Php/month)
Average Size (sq m)
Rockwell
Rental Range (Php/month)
Average Size (sq m)
Fort Bonifacio
Rental Range (Php/month)
Average Size (sq m)
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Capital values continue to outgrow
rental rates
Capital values for Makati CBD residential property grew a tad
higher by 1.3% to a range of PHP100,000 to 189,000 per sq m.
Rockwell values continued to post the fastest growth, which
for the quarter was at 3.7% QoQ, between PHP119,000 and
189,000 per sq m; the lack of new supply in the business center
continues to push property values in the area even higher.
Similar growth was seen also in Fort Bonifacio (+3.5 %) where
there is still significant land bank for development. Colliers
expects that values will grow from 5.8 to 6.3% by the end of the
next 12 months.
Prime 3BR Units Residential Capital Values
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Metro Manila Residential Condominium
Comparative Luxury 3BR Capital Values (PHP / sqm)
LOCATION
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
1Q 2016F
% CHANGE (YoY)
Makati CBD
100,000 - 189,000
102,500 - 192,200
1.3
106,670 - 203,000
Rockwell
117,000 - 180,000
119,000 - 189,000
3.7
125,805 - 198,200
5.1
Fort Bonifacio
110,000 - 172,500
113,000 - 179,500
3.5
118,750 - 192,000
6.3
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
8
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
5.8
Retail
Shift to smaller format retail
development observed in Metro
Manila
Metro Manila retail stock reached 5.9 million sq m, increasing
by 182,000 sq m over the last six months due to the completion
of eight projects. Notable projects include Estancia (35,000 sq
m) by Ortigas and Company, and Robinsons Las Pinas (25,700
sq m) by Robinsons Land. The majority of completed projects
were classified as neighborhood and district centers, primarily
catering to the immediate population in a certain locality.
An additional 179,000 sq m of retail space is expected to be
delivered by the end of the year.
Decreasing opportunities to find large available land parcels in
the metropolis, exacerbated by the competition for land for the
booming condominium and office markets, have resulted in the
decreasing number of regional and superregional centers and a
shift towards smaller format retail. Compact mall development
is also strategic as it allows the retailer to go into residential
enclaves that are otherwise underserved in terms of retail. With
worsening traffic conditions in Metro Manila, shoppers would
prefer to go to a convenient neighborhood location than to
spend time in traffic going to a regional mall. In the four-year
supply pipeline, only five projects are classified as regional and
superregional centers. Three are expansion projects, utilizing
the unused space in the current malls. These projects include
Filinvest’s expansion of Festival Supermall (+57,000 sq m) and
SM Prime Holdings’ SM Mall of Asia (+200,000 sq m) expansion
project. Meanwhile, two are new projects and both are owned
by Ayala Land, which was able to increase its land bank in Metro
Manila with key acquisitions and partnerships – the Circuit Mall
(58,000 sq m) in Makati, and Arca South Taguig Phase 1 (73,000
sq m) on the former FTI property in Taguig.
Retail vacancies decline despite
expansion activities
Vacancy rates at both regional and superregional malls declined
further in the last six months, posting an occupancy rate of
97.9% as of the first quarter. While some retail spaces were
rendered vacant due to renovation and relocation activities,
retailers have opened new shops in these malls thereby
increasing the occupancy rate and mitigating the effects of the
vacated areas.
Some retailers are embarking on expansion activities to
facilitate further growth of their businesses. At the same time,
new entrants in the food, fashion, and technology sectors are
expected to be online in the next six to nine months. As a result,
Colliers predicts that occupancy will revert to high 98% levels by
the end of the year.
Metro Manila
Comparative Retail Vacancy Rates (%)
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
Super Regional
1.98
1.53
Regional
3.66
4.17
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Despite smaller retail spaces dominating new supply, retail
developers remain bullish in pursuing these projects due to
strong domestic consumption amid a stable economic outlook.
From 2016 to 2018, an average of 210,000 sq m of retail space is
targeted to be delivered annually.
Retail Stock
Metro Manila
CLASSIFICATION
Super Regional
4Q 2014
1Q 2015
% CHANGE (QoQ)
1Q 2016F
% CHANGE (YoY)
3,657,635
3,657,635
0.00
3,714,635
1.56
934,983
1,014,983
8.56
1,034,983
1.97
District/Neighborhood
1,200,843
1,228,515
2.30
1,449,068
17.95
All Levels
5,793,461
5,901,133
1.86
6,198,686
5.04
Regional
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
9
Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
Retail rents maintain strong growth
Makati Monthly Retail Rents
Rental rates at Ayala Centre amounted to PHP1,425 per sq m
per month, growing by 1.6% QoQ. Meanwhile, Ortigas Centre
rental rates accelerated by 3.2% QoQ, its fastest quarterly
growth in recent years. As such, rents at Ortigas Centre averaged
PHP1,275 per sq m per month. Colliers forecasts that retail rents
in these areas will grow between 5 and 7.5% over the next 12
months.
0.15
0.10
0.05
-0.00
-0.05
-0.10
-0.15
-0.20
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Ortigas Monthly Retail Rents
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Declining oil prices and stable
inflation cause positive consumer
sentiment
A 40% decline in the global crude prices since November
2014 greatly contributed to a healthy inflation environment
(4.1%), helping domestic consumption to grow at 5.1% in
2014. Apart from growing expenditures for basic necessities
like food and housing, the Philippine Statistical Authority
reported increasing growth rates for restaurants and hotels
(+6.8% YoY), and recreation and culture (+5.3%), affirming
that on a macroeconomic level, more families are able to earn
more income for their families. As a result of this encouraging
economic environment, consumer outlook over the next 12
months is positive due to more disposable income leading to
more savings and availability of more jobs, among others.
Consumer Spending Growth Rate
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
Source: Philippine Statistical Authority
10 Research & Forecast Report | 1Q 2015 | Philippines | Colliers International
502 offices in
67 countries on
6 continents
$2.3
billion in
annual revenue
1.70
billion square feet
under management
United States: 140
Canada: 31
Latin America: 24
Asia: 39
ANZ: 160
EMEA: 16,300
professionals
and staff
Author:
Mark Lagunilla
Analyst | Philippines
+63 2 888 9988
[email protected]
108
Colliers International
Philippines
11F Frabelle Business Center
111 Rada St Legaspi Village
Makati City 1229 Philippines
TEL +63 2 888 9988
Contributors:
Julius Guevara
Director | Research & Advisory
[email protected]
David A. Young
Managing Director | Philippines
[email protected]
Copyright © 2015 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its
accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors
prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.