A Network Analysis of the Volatility of High
Transcription
A Network Analysis of the Volatility of High
A Network Analysis of the Volatility of High-Dimensional Financial Series Matteo Barigozzi London School of Economics Marc Hallin Université libre de Bruxelles Statistical Network Science and its Applications Isaac Newton Institute Cambridge, UK 25–26 August 2016 In a nutshell - aim and methods 1 We study the network of S&P100 stocks’ volatilities; 2 for financial data no network structure pre-exists the observations ⇒ we consider Long Run Variance Decomposition Networks; Diebold and Yılmaz, 2014 3 large dimensional system of time series poses difficulties in estimation ⇒ we use factor models and lasso-type regressions as solutions; 4 financial shocks have an economic meaning ⇒ we identify shocks by means of recursive identification scheme; 5 high connectedness means high uncertainty ⇒ we extract volatilities as measures of fear or lack of confidence. Introduction 1/43 In a nutshell - results JPM APC OXY PFE KO CAT BAC USB APA C WFC DVN RTN AMZN TXN COP BMY INTC HAL XOM NOV TGT T AIG FDX DD LOW HD CVS ALL BRK.B LMT HPQ SBUX MS NKE EMC DIS MMM QCOM CL WAG DOW WMB PG UPS F AMGN BK CMCSA COF PEP SPG MRK 2000-2013 Introduction GILD BA GD RTN MDT UTX GS INTC C MS ALL TWX TGT HD CVS EXC BRK.B AXP DD NOV UPS DELL CATMRK PFE WAG HAL QCOM JNJ EMR CMCSA MMM BMY LLY NKE SO VZ COST WMT CL HPQ DOW ABT EMR BAX LOW AEP AAPL WFC COF MCD F AAPL AMZN BAX TWX FDX WMT ORCL MCD UNH IBM USB HON SPG WMB BAC IBM FCX ABT NSC GS DIS HON LLY SO AEP UNP JNJ CSCO MDT VZ NSC MSFT ORCL KO JPM DELL UNP GE COST BA AMGN AIG MSFT MO APC SBUX BK SLB CVX CVX EBAY EXC GE UTX LMT MO GD OXY DVN APA COP SLB XOM EMC TXN FCXGILD PEP CSCO PG AXP T UNH EBAY 2007-2008 Great Financial Crisis 2/43 Data A panel of stock daily returns r = rit |i = 1, . . . , n, t = 1, . . . , T from Standard & Poor’s 100 index; n = 90 assets from 10 sectors: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Health Care, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services, Utilities; T = 3457 days from 3rd January 2000 to 30th September 2013; from returns we extract volatilities which are unobserved; we are in a large n, T setting. Introduction 3/43 Methods Long Run Variance Decomposition Network (LVDN) weighted and directed graph; the weight associated with edge (i, j) represents the proportion of h-step ahead forecast error variance of variable i which is accounted for by the innovations in variable j; completely characterised by the infinite vector moving average (VMA) representation given by Wold’s classical representation theorem; for a generic process Y the model reads Y t = D(L)e t , e t ∼ w .n.(0, I) where e t are orthonormal shocks with an economic meaning D(L) are impulse response functions (IRF) which give the network Introduction 4/43 Methods Goal 1 - estimate a VMA: estimate and invert VAR (classical approach); in a large dimensional setting ⇒ curse of dimensionality; two main solutions in time series: 1 factor models; Forni, Hallin, Lippi, Reichlin, 2000, Bai and Ng, 2002, Stock and Watson, 2002, Forni, Hallin, Lippi, Zaffaroni, 2015, Barigozzi and Hallin, 2016 2 lasso-type penalised regressions; Tibshirani, 1996, Zou and Hastie, 2005, Yuan and Lin, 2006, Zou, 2006, Peng, Wang, Zhou, Zhu, 2009 used to analyse two complementary features of financial markets: 1 effect of global shocks ⇒ pervasive risk, non-diversifiable; Ross, 1976, Chamberlain and Rothschild, 1983, Fama and French, 1993 2 effect of idiosyncratic shocks ⇒ systemic risk, limited diversifiability; Gabaix, 2011, Acemoglu, Carvalho, Ozdaglar, Tahbaz-Salehi, 2012 Introduction 5/43 Methods Goal 2 - identify the shocks: given a VMA any invertible linear transformation of the shocks is a statistically valid representation; to attach an economic meaning to the shocks ⇒ to identify; assume orthonormality or even independence; recursive identification schemes, i.e. choose shocks’ ordering. Introduction 6/43 Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) Consider a generic n × T panel of time series Yn such that A1 Yn is strongly stationary; A2 its spectral density Σn (θ) exists with eigenvalues λj,n (θ); A3 there exists a q < n not depending on n such that: a λq,n (θ) → ∞ as n → ∞; b λq+1,n (θ) < M < ∞ for any n ∈ N. Factors and Networks 7/43 Generalised Dynamic Factor Model (GDFM) Under A1-A3 Ynt = Xnt + Znt = Bn (L)ut + Znt (1) i u is q-dimensional and ut ∼ w .n.(0, I) ⇒ global shocks; ii Bn (L) is n × q polynomials with squared summable coefficients ⇒ IRFs to global shocks; iii q spectral eigenvalues of Xn diverge as n → ∞; ⇒ strong (auto)correlation among components of Xn ; iv n spectral eigenvalues of Zn are bounded for any n ∈ N; ⇒ weak, but not zero, (auto)correlation among components of Zn ; v Xn and Zn are mutually orthogonal at every lead and lag. Notice that model and assumptions are defined in the limit n → ∞; under A1-A2, model (1) and A3 are equivalent. Factors and Networks 8/43 Idiosyncratic component - VMA The idiosyncratic component always admits the Wold decomposition Znt = Dn (L)ent vi en is n-dimensional and ent ∼ w .n.(0, I) ⇒ idiosyncratic shocks; vii Dn (L) is n × n polynomials with squared summable coefficients ⇒ IRFs to idiosyncratic shocks. Factors and Networks 9/43 Shocks Two sources of variation: 1 few (q) global shocks, u, with pervasive effect due to condition (iii) of diverging eigenvalues; 2 many (n) idiosyncratic shocks, en , with limited, but not null, effect due to condition (iv) of bounded eigenvalues ⇒ no sparsity assumption is made. We first control for the global effects and then we focus on the effect of idiosyncratic shocks measured through the LVDN. Factors and Networks 10/43 Long-Run Variance Decomposition Network (LVDN) Vertices set V = {1 . . . n}; edges set ELVDN = (i, j) ∈ V × V| lim h→∞ wijh 6= 0 edges weights Ph−1 wijh = 100 2 k=0 dk,ij Pn Ph−1 2 `=1 k=0 dk,i` where dk,ij is entry of Dnk such that Dn (L) = ! P∞ k=0 Dnk L k; wijh is the proportion of h-step ahead forecast error variance of Zi which is accounted for by the innovations in Zj . Factors and Networks 11/43 Long-Run Variance Decomposition Network (LVDN) The operative definition of LVDN requires to fix h; the weights are normalised n 1 X h wij = 1, 100 j=1 n 1 X h wij = n; 100 i,j=1 we define the FROM and TO degrees as δiFROM = n X wijh , δjTO = n X j=1 j6=i wijh ; i=1 i6=j a measure of total connectedness is given by δ TOT = Factors and Networks n n i=1 j=1 1 X FROM 1 X TO δi = δj . n n 12/43 Idiosyncratic component - VAR To estimate a VMA we assume A4 Zn has the sparse-VAR(p) representation Fn (L)Znt = vnt , vnt ∼ w .n.(0, C−1 n ) P where Fn (L) = pk=0 Fnk Lk with Fn0 = I and det(Fn (z)) 6= 0 for any z ∈ C such that |z| ≤ 1, and Cn has full-rank. Moreover, Fnk and Cn−1 are sparse matrices. Notice that we assume sparsity of VAR and not of VMA for estimation purposes but the argument of condition (iv) of bounded eigenvalues still holds; for convenience in the identification step, we parametrise the covariance matrix of the VAR innovations by means of its inverse Cn Factors and Networks 13/43 Idiosyncratic component - VAR As a by-product, we have a Long-Run Granger Causality Network (LGCN) Edges set ( ) p X ELGCN = (i, j) ∈ V × V| fkij 6= 0 k=0 it captures the leading/lagging conditional linear dependencies; Dahlhaus and Eichler, 2003, Eichler, 2007 under A4 the LGCN is likely to be sparse but the LVDN is not necessarily sparse; the economic interpretation of the LGCN is not as straightforward as that of the LVDN, and the LGCN therefore is of lesser interest for the analysis of financial systems and we consider it just as a tool to derive the LVDN; cfr. with traditional macroeconomic analysis where IRF, i.e. VMA coefficients, rather than VAR ones, are the object of interest for policy makers. Factors and Networks 14/43 Identification From the VAR and VMA of Zn we have Dn (L) = (Fn (L))−1 Rn where Rn is such that it makes the shocks R−1 n vn = en orthonormal. choosing Rn is equivalent to identifying the shocks; choose Rn as the lower triangular matrix such that 0 Cov(vn ) = C−1 n = Rn Rn then 0 0 0 −1 −1 = R−1 =I Cov(en ) = R−1 n Rn Rn Rn n Cov(vn )Rn but this choice depends on the ordering of the shocks, a given order of shocks defines which component we choose to hit first. Factors and Networks 15/43 Identification We use vn ’s partial correlation structure the partial correlation between vi and vj is −[Cn ]ij ρij = p [Cn ]ii [Cn ]jj associated is the Partial Correlation Network (PCN), with edges set EPCN = (i, j) ∈ V × V| ρij 6= 0 by A4, the PCN is a sparse network; Peng, Wang, Zhou, Zhu, 2009 order shocks by decreasing eigenvector centrality in the PCN; we are considering the case in which the most contemporaneously interconnected node is firstly affected by an unexpected shock, and then, by means of the subsequent impulse response analysis, we study the propagation of such shock through the whole system. Factors and Networks 16/43 Returns vs. Volatilities returns are observed but volatilities are unobserved ⇒ factor model for returns to extract volatilities in a multivariate way Barigozzi and Hallin, 2016 in a univariate setting a generic model for volatility reads as a(L)rt = ηt , ηt ∼ w .n.(0, σ 2 ), ηt2 = f (ηt−1 . . . η0 ) for example stochastic volatility models where log η 2 is an AR(1) 2 log ηt2 = c + a1 log ηt−1 + νt . Estimation 17/43 Returns vs. Volatilities in the large n case we use an autoregressive representation of the GDFM Forni, Hallin, Lippi, Zaffaroni, 2015 An (L)r nt = ηnt + ξnt ηnt = Hn ut with Hn full-rank and n × q and ut ∼ w .n.(0, I) ⇒ global shocks to returns, that is market shocks; An (L) is block-diagonal with blocks of size q + 1; ξn has bounded spectral eigenvalues, is idiosyncratic such that it has the sparse VAR representation Fn (L)ξnt = v nt Estimation 18/43 Returns vs. Volatilities centred log-volatilities are defined as σnt = log(ηnt + v nt )2 − E[log(ηnt + v nt )2 ] we assume a GDFM also for log-volatilities σnt = χσ,nt + ξσ,nt Aσ,n (L)χσ,nt = Hn,σ εt ε is Q-dimensional and εt ∼ w .n.(0, I) ⇒ global shocks to volatilities, that is risk market shocks; Hn,σ is n × Q and H0n,σ Hn,σ = nI ⇒ global shocks are pervasive; An (L) is block-diagonal with blocks of size Q + 1; ξσ,n has bounded spectral eigenvalues, is idiosyncratic such that it has the sparse VAR representation Fn (L)ξσ,nt = νnt Estimation 19/43 Estimation in one slide GDFM estimation is based on the following “tools” (details omitted): Spectral density matrix, dynamic PCA, autocovariances by inverse Fourier transform, Yule Walker equations; Forni, Hallin, Lippi, Zaffaroni, 2015 run GDFM estimation twice: Barigozzi and Hallin, 2016 1 2 on returns to obtain shocks u and vn for computing log-volatilities; on volatilities to obtain the idiosyncratic component ξσ,n ; estimate a sparse VAR on ξσ,n , some options are 1 2 3 4 Estimation elastic net Zou and Hastie, 2005 group lasso Yuan and Lin, 2006, Nicholson, Bien, Matteson, 2014, Gelper, Wilms, Croux, 2016 adaptive lasso Zou, 2006, Kock and Callot, 2015, Barigozzi and Brownlees, 2016 other penalties are also possible Hsu, Hung, Chang, 2008, Abegaz and Wit, 2013 20/43 LVDN The VMA for idiosyncratic volatilities ξσ,nt = (Fn (L))−1 νnt = (Fn (L))−1 Rn R−1 n νnt = Dn (L)ent ent ∼ w .n.(0, I) by construction ⇒ idiosyncratic shocks to volatilities; Rn identified using centrality in the PCN of νnt (estimated via lasso); truncate (Fn (L))−1 Rn at lag h = 20 (one month); LVDN weights are given by the entries of Dn (L) ⇒ weighted directed non-sparse network; LVDN can be made sparse by some other form of thresholding. Estimation 21/43 The effect of global shocks The VMA for common volatilities χσ,nt = (An (L))−1 Hσ,n Kεt = Bn (L)εt εt ∼ w .n.(0, I) by construction ⇒ global shocks to volatilities; K for identification (easy since there are few shocks); truncate (An (L))−1 Hσ,n K at lag h = 20 (one month); from the entries of Bn (L) we can compute percentages of h-step ahead forecast error variances due to the global shocks. Estimation 22/43 Data Adjusted daily closing prices pit ; 90 daily stock returns from S&P 100 index rit = 100∆ log pit ; 10 sectors: Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Energy, Financial, Health Care, Industrials, Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services, Utilities; two periods 2000-2013 and 2007-2008; from returns we extract log-volatilities; data are not standardised. Results 23/43 Number of factors look at the behaviour of the spectral eigenvalues; Hallin and Liška, 2007 one global shock in returns q = 1; one global shock in volatilities Q = 1; in both cases the global shock explains about 40% of total variance Rπ λ1,n (θ)dθ EV = Pn −πR π ' 0.4 i=1 −π λi,n (θ)dθ the idiosyncratic shocks account for about 60% of total variance. Results 24/43 Effects of global volatility shocks Sector Cons. Disc. Cons. Stap. Energy Financial Health Care Industrials Inf. Tech. Materials Telecom. Serv. Utilities Total 2000-2013 8.87 10.54 11.61 11.89 9.38 8.50 10.00 8.35 10.07 10.82 100 2007-2008 8.82 10.14 18.44 14.40 8.01 7.97 6.94 9.79 8.04 7.47 100 Percentages of 20-step ahead forecast error variances due to the global shock. Results 25/43 Sparse VAR for idiosyncratic component VAR order selected: p = 5 - Elastic net 1 1 45 45 90 1 45 2000-2013 90 90 1 45 90 2007-2008 density = 0.53 density = 0.86 negative weights in blue, positive weights in red. Results 26/43 Sparse VAR for idiosyncratic component VAR order selected: p = 5 - Group lasso 1 1 45 45 90 1 45 2000-2013 90 90 1 45 90 2007-2008 density = 0.14 density = 0.32 negative weights in blue, positive weights in red. Results 27/43 PCN for idiosyncratic innovations 1 1 45 45 90 1 45 2000-2013 90 90 1 45 90 2007-2008 density = 0.06 density = 0.24 negative weights in blue, positive weights in red. Results 28/43 PCN for idiosyncratic innovations 2000-2013 JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. C Citigroup Inc. BAC Bank of America Corp. APA Apache Corp. WFC Wells Fargo COP Conoco Phillips OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp. DVN Devon Energy SLB Schlumberger MS Morgan Stanley 2007-2008 BAC Bank of America Corp. USB US Bancorp JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. MS Morgan Stanley WFC Wells Fargo DVN Devon Energy GS Goldman Sachs AXP American Express Inc. COF Capital One Financial Corp. UNH United Health Group Inc. Eigenvector centrality in the PCN. Results 29/43 LVDN 1 1 45 45 90 1 45 90 90 1 45 90 2000-2013 2007-2008 weights below the 95th percentile in grey, between the 95th and 97.5th percentiles in blue, between the 97.5th and 99th percentiles in yellow, and above the 99th percentile in red. Results 30/43 LVDN percentiles 2000-2013 2007-2008 50th 0.02 0.17 90th 0.13 0.71 95th 0.20 1.00 97.5th 0.29 1.28 99th 0.48 1.76 max 4.29 4.53 Selected percentiles of LVDN weights. Results 31/43 LVDN - sparse 1 1 45 45 90 1 45 90 90 1 45 90 2000-2013 2007-2008 Thresholded LVDN, non-zero weights in red. Results 32/43 LVDN - sparse JPM APC OXY PFE KO CAT BAC USB APA C WFC DVN AMZN TXN GE UTX BMY INTC HAL XOM NOV CSCO MDT AIG FDX DD LOW HD CVS ALL BRK.B LMT HPQ SBUX NKE EMC DIS MMM QCOM CL MS WAG IBM DOW WMB PG UPS F AAPL BK LOW AMGN GILD GD COF PEP MS ALL TWX TGT HD BRK.B DD VZ COST NOV UPS DELL CATMRK AXP PFE WAG HAL QCOM DOW TXN FCXGILD MRK PEP CSCO PG AXP T UNH 2000-2013 WMT CL HPQ ABT JNJ EMR CMCSA MMM BMY LLY NKE SO SPG BAX UTX GS INTC C CMCSA EMR RTN MDT CVS EXC AEP BA AAPL AMZN BAX WFC COF MCD F SPG WMB TWX FDX WMT ORCL MCD UNH USB HON MSFT ORCL KO BAC IBM FCX ABT NSC GS DIS HON LLY SO AEP UNP JNJ UNP NSC BK MSFT MO APC SBUX GE COST BA AMGN AIG JPM DELL TGT T VZ CVX EBAY EXC SLB CVX MO GD OXY COP LMT EMC RTN DVN APA COP SLB XOM EBAY 2007-2008 Thresholded LVDN. Results 33/43 LVDN - centrality 2000-2013 BAC Bank of America Corp. JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. WFC Wells Fargo C Citigroup Inc. USB US Bancorp APA Apache Corp. SLB Schlumberger COP Conoco Phillips - 2007-2008 USB US Bancorp BAC Bank of America Corp. COF Capital One Financial Corp. AIG American International Group Inc. C Citigroup Inc. WFC Wells Fargo BA Boeing Co. CVX Chevron MCD McDonalds Corp. IBM International Business Machines Eigenvector centrality in the thresholded LVDN. Results 34/43 LVDN - connectivity Sector Cons. Disc. Cons. Stap. Energy Financial Health Care Industrials Inf. Tech. Materials Telecom. Serv. Utilities Total degree non-thresholded 2000-2013 2007-2008 from to from to 4.32 2.37 26.31 26.41 3.98 4.65 27.47 22.65 5.52 7.92 21.91 33.72 4.74 6.22 24.42 35.56 5.00 2.51 28.06 22.36 4.43 3.21 27.26 25.81 5.03 4.89 29.90 19.98 3.24 4.62 26.86 27.01 6.50 7.26 27.44 16.52 5.15 8.74 29.49 21.54 4.73 26.54 thresholded 2000-2013 2007-2008 from to from to 0.24 0.24 1.96 3.29 0.00 0.44 2.80 1.36 1.90 1.54 4.01 6.10 0.77 0.77 5.23 6.69 0.00 0.00 4.27 1.83 0.21 0.21 2.43 3.53 0.00 0.00 3.35 1.58 0.00 0.00 2.99 0.81 1.91 1.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.94 2.38 0.47 3.40 From- and To-degree sectoral averages in LVDN. Results 35/43 Summary We determine and quantify the different sources of variation driving a panel of volatilities of S&P100 stocks over the period 2000-2013; increased connectivity during Financial Crisis; key role of the Financial sector, particularly during the Financial Crisis; other sectors such as Energy seem to have an important role too; a “factor plus VAR” approach motivated by financial interpretation: global vs. idiosyncratic risk; existence of common factors is at odds with sparsity; data structure as shown by partial spectral coherencies; results are robust to other VAR estimations as (i) group lasso, (ii) adaptive lasso; different forecasting horizons h; other identifications strategies as (i) centrality of PCN when signs of correlations are accounted for, (ii) generalised variance decomposition. Results 36/43 Thank you! Questions? Results 37/43 Partial spectral coherence It is the analogous of partial correlation but in the frequency domain −[Σ(θ)]ij PSCij (θ) = p [Σ(θ)]ii [Σ(θ)]jj directly related to VAR coefficients; Davis, Zang, Zheng, 2015 compare PSC of volatilities σn and idiosyncratic volatilities ξσ;n ; difference between a sparse VAR on σn vs. sparse VAR on ξσ;n . Results 38/43 Partial spectral coherence percentiles |PSCσn (θ = 0)| |PSCξσ;n (θ = 0)| |PSCσn (θ = 0) − PSCξσ;n (θ = 0)| 50th 0.06 0.06 0.02 90th 0.16 0.16 0.06 95th 0.18 0.19 0.08 97.5th 0.22 0.22 0.12 99th 0.25 0.25 0.15 max 0.35 0.34 0.24 Distribution of absolute value of PSC s’ entries. Results 39/43 Partial spectral coherence 1 1 1 45 45 45 90 1 45 PSCσn (θ = 0) 90 90 1 45 PSCξσ;n (θ = 0) 90 90 1 45 90 |PSCσn (θ = 0) − PSCξσ;n (θ = 0)| Left and middle panels: weights in absolute values below the 90th percentile in grey, weights above the 90th percentile in red, and below the 10th percentile in blue. Right panel: weights below the 90th percentile in grey, between the 90th and 95th percentiles in blue, and above the 95th percentile in red. Results 40/43 Eigenvector centrality in the signed PCN 2000-2013 BAC Bank of America Corp. C Citigroup Inc. WFC Wells Fargo JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. AIG American International Group Inc. USB US Bancorp MS Morgan Stanley AXP American Express Inc. ORCL Oracle Corp. COF Capital One Financial Corp. 2007-2008 BAC Bank of America Corp. USB US Bancorp JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. MS Morgan Stanley AIG American International Group Inc. C Citigroup Inc. COF Capital One Financial Corp. WFC Wells Fargo GS Goldman Sachs AXP American Express Inc. Eigenvector centrality in the signed PCN. Results 41/43 LVDN - obtained with signed PCN HD APADVN PG TGT MRK PFE BAC WFC HON T VZ NSC UNP HALNOV GS COP JNJ UTX MMM MDT COF TXN WMT BAX AMZN ALL LMT ABT SBUX BRK.B SLB INTC MSFT ORCL QCOM WAG UPS MCD CVS PEP LOW MDT COF NKE BMY HD HAL VZ NOV LLY INTC AMZN BK DIS PG 2000-2013 FCX UNP NSC BRK.B SLB JNJ GILD FDX MMM F DIS T PFE WMT LMT IBM TGT TXN CAT CMCSA HON CL RTN MRK AAPL KO MSFT GE ORCL GILD WMB TWX NKE SO QCOM CSCO BA COP UTX APC BMY AEP SPG AEP SO PEP EXC HPQ DVN CSCO BA WMB UNH RTN ALL AIG DOW AMGN MS EXC EMC GD XOM CVX TWX APC GS EBAY WAG AMGN DD F BK CL IBM JPM C DOW CVS AIG SPG BAX MO WFC USB BAC EMR KO AXP CAT UNH EMC DELL MS AAPL MO CVX XOM OXY FDX COST UPS USB AXP OXY CMCSA MCD GE SBUX FCX LLY JPM C EMR COST GD LOW APA EBAY HPQ ABT DELL DD 2007-2008 Thresholded LVDN. Results 42/43 LVDN - centrality obtained with signed PCN 2000-2013 BAC Bank of America Corp. WFC Wells Fargo JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. C Citigroup Inc. USB US Bancorp - 2007-2008 BAC Bank of America Corp USB US Bancorp WFC Wells Fargo AXP American Express Inc. UNH United Health Group Inc. AIG American International Group Inc. C Citigroup Inc. MCD McDonalds Corp. JPM JP Morgan Chase & Co. OXY Occidental Petroleum Corp. Eigenvector centrality in the thresholded LVDN. Results 43/43