Together We Build a Better Future
Transcription
Together We Build a Better Future
Together We Build a Better Future 0 INDONESIA’S CEMENT INDUSTRY: NOW and THE FUTURE SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 CEMENT INDUSTRY AT A GLANCE 2 Kuala Lumpur Singapore 1 SMGR 3 1 4 1 6 7 5 CEMENT INDUSTRY • Design Capacity • Production Capacity • Domestic Growth • Domestic Utilization •Supply Domestic Export Import : : : : 2013 68.0 mio tons 55.2 mio tons 5.5% 100% : 58.0 mio tons : 0.5 mio tons : 3.3 mio tons2) 2014F 1) 2015F 1) 71.5 mio tons 60.0 mio tons 6.0% 100% 82.2 mio tons 69.8 mio tons 6.0% 94% 61.0 mio tons 0.5 mio tons 3.0 mio tons 3)) 65.8 mio tons 0.5 mio tons 3.0 mio tons3) 1) Based on the Company’s forecast 2) Imported cement by PT Semen Andalas (1.0 mio ton) and clinker by Bosawa and Kupang 3) Imported cement & clinker DOMESTIC CAPACITY (2014) 1. SEMEN INDONESIA - Semen Padang : - Semen Gresik : - Semen Tonasa: 2. Semen Andalas 2) 3. Semen Baturaja 4. Indocement TP 5. Holcim Indonesia 6. Semen Bosowa 7. Semen Kupang TOTAL 29.5 mn ton 7.3 mn ton 14.4 mn ton 7.8 mn ton 1.6 mn ton 1.3 mn ton 20.5 mn ton 12.1 mn ton 6.0 mn ton 0.5 mn ton 2 71.5 mn ton COMPARISON: CEMENT CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 2013 201 kg/capita kg 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 229 200 0 a di In p ili Ph a s ne pi si ne do In nd la ai Th re a si ay al po m na et Vi M a ng Si a in Ch Source: Deutsche, Indonesia Cement Association INDONESIA’S ECONOMY AND DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION GROWTH (mio tons) 60.0 20.0% Cement growth % (RHS) 17.7% GDP growth % (RHS) Domestic consumption (LHS) 58.0 54.9 50.0 14.5% 48.0 11.5% 40.0 40.8 38.1 9.7% 30.0 30.2 27.2 20.0 10.0 5.6% 5.1% Growth 4.7%: 5.8% Growth : 4.2% 2002 2003 5.4% 10.0% 6.10% 6.3% Growth6.6% : 1.1% 9.7% 4.60% 6.1% Growth : 4.2% 6.00% 23.7 6.50% Growth 6.0% : 6.80% Growth : 1.8% 6.6% 5.5% Growth 5.70% : 3.7% 19.4% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0 34.2 27.5 5.8% 4.4% 31.5 32.1 39.1 0.0% 2004 2005 Source: Indonesian Cement Association & BPS Statistic 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 5M2014 ARISING INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION TREND Bag and Bulk cement consumption (million tons) 44.1 45.7 45 40 39.2 35 32.2 30 25 22.7 21.0 20 23.7 23.7 25.2 25.5 26.9 32.8 34.2 28.2 20.0 18.1 18.7 16.9 15 10.8 12.2 8.8 10 6.5 5 1.0 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.8 5.0 6.0 5.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 6.6 5 0 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Bagged Cement 2007 Bulk Cement 2009 2011 2013 DOMESTIC MARKET CONSUMPTION (2013) Bulk ± 21% Bag ± 79% • Ready Ready-mix (infrastructure): ± 60% • Fabricator (pre-cast, (pre fiber cement, cement based industry): ± 35% • Projects (mortar, render): ± 5% • Housing: ± 90% • Cement based industry: ± 10% Key Drivers of Domestic cement demand: Source: Internal Research Retail (residential) sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia • National Economic Growth • Favorable Interest Rate Environment • Infrastructure Expansion • Per Capita Consumption increase from current low levels DOMESTIC MARKET UPDATE SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 MARKET BY GEOGRAPHY Population Distribution (2013) Cement Distribution (5M2014) 2 4 7.4% 7.9% 3 6 SP 1 SG 5.5% 2.3% Papua 8.4% 5.8% ST Sumatera 5 21.0% % Kalimantan Java Domestic Market Share (5M2014 5M2014) MARKET SHARE (%) SMGR INTP SMCB 1. JAVA 41.2 38.2 17.9 2. SUMATERA 42.9 15.2 3. KALIMANTAN 49.3 4. SULAWESI Sumatera 21.3% Java 57.5.% 55.9% REGION 1.5% Bali & N T Sulawesi 5.5% BSWA ANDLS BTRJA KPG 2.4 - - 0.2 14.4 3.3 15.6 8.6 - 30.8 11.3 8.6 - - - 61.5 15.4 0.9 22.1 - - - 5. NUSA TENGGR. 40.9 33.9 4.3 16,0 - - 4.8 6. EASTERN IND. 54.2 21.1 0.7 23.8 - - TOTAL INDONESIA 44.0 30.5 14. 14.2 5.7 3.2 1.8 0.4 MARKET UPDATE - Cement Consumption 5M2014 5M 2014 - SMGR Sales Volume (million tons) DESCRIPTION DOMESTIC 5M 2014 – Domestic Consumption (mio tons) 5M-14 5M-13 10,467,232 10,017,522 4.5 5,648,678 5,190,159 8.8 Semen Indonesia CHANGE (%) Semen Padang 2,723,628 2,796,549 (2.6) Semen Tonasa 2,094,926 2,030,813 3.2 22,155 89,907 (75.4) 10,489,387 10,107,429 3.8 EXPORT GRAND TOTAL SMGR Sales Type (mio tons) 5M-14 5M-13 YoY Change Bag 7.9 (76.4%) 7.7 (77.6%) 2.8% Bulk 2.4 (23.6%) 2.2 (22.4%) 10.0% Industry Sales Type (mio tons) AREA 5M 2014 5M 2013 CHANGE (%) Jakarta 2,369,820 2,177,464 8.8 Banten 1,276,761 1,382,750 (7.7) West Java 3,575,296 3,288,320 8.7 Central Java 2,544,369 2,578,205 (1.3) 389,026 368,214 5.7 3,132,778 2,869,734 9.2 13,288,051 12,664,688 4.9 Sumatera 4,989,864 4,932,070 1.2 Kalimantan 1,882,895 1,803,045 4.4 Sulawesi 1,763,360 1,622,599 8.7 Nusa Tenggara 1,317,726 1,355,331 (2.8) 542,968 556,752 (2.5) 23,784,864 22,934,485 3.7 32,155 85,240 (62.3) - 21,467 (100.0) 32,155 106,707 (69.9) 23,817,019 23,041,192 3.4 Yogyakarta East Java Total Java Maluku & Papua TOTAL INDONESIA Export Cement 5M-14 5M-13 YoY Change Bag 18.7 (78.9%) 18.2 (79.5%) 2.9% Bulk 5.0 (21.1%) 4.7 (20.5%) 6.6% Export Clinker Total Export GRAND TOTAL *) Source: Indonesia Cement Association, un-audited figures COMPANY PROFILE SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 SMGR IS THE #1 CEMENT COMPANY IN INDONESIA BRIEF HISTORY 1957 : Inauguration of Gresik I, installed capacity of 250,000 ton cement per annum 1991 : Initial Public Offering, Market Cap.: IDR0.63tn, resulting shareholding structure post IPO: 1995 1998 2006 2010 2011 2012 ● Government of Republic of Indonesia: 73% ● Public: 27% : Acquisition of PT Semen Padang (Persero)) and PT Semen Tonasa (Persero) : Cemex became a strategic partner, Market Cap.: IDR4.9tn : Blue Valley Holdings bought Cemex’s 24.9% stake in SMGR, Market Cap.: IDR21.5tn : In March 31, Blue Valley Holdings sold all of its stake ownership in SMGR, Market Cap per April 30, 2010: IDR72.1tn : Total installed capacity of 20.00mm 0mm tons, Market Cap per June 29, 2012: IDR67.0tn : Acquisition of Thang Long Cement Vietnam, Total otal installed capacity of 2.3mm tons, Market Cap Dec 19th, 2012: IDR91.9tn SMGR CAPACITY BUILD-OUT (Mio TONS) 30,0 Post-consolidated consolidated capacity 25,0 • Total Installed capacity: 30 million tons (2013) including TLCC; 20,0 • Market share of Semen Indonesia in 2013 was 44% based on sales volume 15,0 10,0 5,0 • 2013 Revenues amounted to IDR 19.6 trillion (equivalent to EUR 1.2 billion), with EBITDA margin of 35% Pre-consolidated capacity _ _ _ _ _ _ 19 70 19 80 19 8 19 4 8 19 5 86 19 90 19 9 19 5 9 19 7 98 20 0 20 6 0 20 7 0 20 8 0 20 9 1 20 0 1 20 1 1 20 2 13 19 57 0,0 FOCUS IN CORE BUSINESS OWNERSHIP STRUCTURE1 The Government of the Republic of Indonesia Public 51.01% 48.99% PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) ( Tbk. 99.99% PT Semen Padang 99.99% 99.23% PT Semen Tonasa PT Semen Gresik Name Activities % Ownership 1. Igasar Cement distribution & Trading 12.00% 2. Sepatim B 70.00% Thang Long Cement, VN Name Name Activities Activities % Ownership % Ownership General trading, cement packaging 85.00% 1. UTSG UTSG 1. Limestone & Clay Mining Limestone & Clay Mining 55.00% 55.00% 3. Bima SA General trading, cement packaging 80.00% 2. IKSG IKSG 2. Packaging Paper Cement Packaging 60.00% 60.00% 4. SUPS Cement Packaging 3. KIG KIG 3. 10.00% Industrial Estate 65.00% Industrial Estate 4. Swadaya Graha65.00% Contractor & Machine Fabricator 25.00% 4. Gra Steel fabrication, 5. Swadaya Varia Usaha Transport and contractor general trading 25.00% 24.90% 5. Usaha and general trading 24.90% 6. Varia Eternit Gresik Transport Building materials 17.60% 6. 7. 7. 8. Eternit Gresik Building SGG Energy Prima Coal materials Mining and Trading SGG Trading Coal SGG Prima Prima Coal Beton Ready Mix Concrete 8. SGG Prima Beton Ready Mix Concrete ¹ As of Jan, 2014 17.60% 97.00% 99.99% 99.99% 99.99% REGIONAL CEMENT PLAYERS SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 COMPETITIVENESS OF SEMEN INDONESIA Kiln 1 unit Cement Mill 1 unit Integrated Cement Plant Kiln 13 Unit Cement Mill 22 Unit Grinding Plant Grinding Plant Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 6 unit Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 9 unit Cement Mill 1 unit Cement Mill Grinding Plant 3 unit Cement Mill 4 location 2 location 4 Unit Warehouse 30 location Packing Plant 22 location Sea Port 11 location Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 6 unit STRATEGIC TRATEGIC POSITION IN THE REGION Kiln 1 unit Cement Mill 1 unit Grinding Plant 1 unit Cement Mill NEW TARGET Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 6 unit Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 9 unit Grinding Plant 3 unit Cement Mill Kiln 4 unit Cement Mill 6 unit SUPPLY-DEMAND DEMAND CEMENT IN SOUTH EAST ASIA Potential Market Cap. : 54.4 mio Cap. : 1.5 mio Cap. : 5.6 mio Export : Clinker : 6.17 Cement: 5.77 Cap. : 75 mio Cap. : 22 mio Cap. : 1.0 mio Cap. : 0.55 mio Cap. : - mio Cap. : 66.4 mio Cap. : 28.9 mio Source : Global cement MAJOR PLAYERS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA Cement Plant Capacity of Major Player in South East Asia Cement Plant Capacity of Major Player in South East Asia after LafargeHolcim Merger 25 35 30 20 25 20 No of Plant No of Plant 15 Holcim Heidelberger Semen Indonesia 10 15 Semen Indonesia Heidelberger 10 Lafarge VIcem 5 0 Italcementi -10 0 0 10 20 30 Vicem 5 SCG Cemex -10 LafargeHolcim 40 50 SCG Cemex Italcementi 0 -5 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cement Plant Capacity (Milion Ton) Cement Plant Capacity (Milion Ton) •Setelah Setelah merger Holcim dan Lafarge, total kapasitas perusahaan menjadi 63 Juta Ton atau 2 kali lipat kapasitas Semen Indonesia dan memiliki Kapasitas yang dapat memenuhi 34% konsumsi semen di Asia Tenggara • LafargeHolcim dan Semen Indonesia merupakan Perusahaan Semen yang terkemuka di Asia Tenggara 80 CEMENT PLAYERS IN SOUTH EAST ASIA Company Heidelberg Indonesia Malaysia Philip. Thailand Vietnam Brunei 20,5 Cambodia 21.05 0.55 9.9 1.2 9.1 41.9 5.2 16.5 Total Holcim + 63 1,6 12.5 0.5 6,5 21.1 Lafarge Cemex 0.5 23 Siam Cement Semen Indonesia 6.16 0.96 5.2 29.5 2.3 23.5 31.8 7 7 Italcementi VICEM Sources : AFCM dan Annual report 2012 18 Design Capacity 2013 in Mio Ton Lokasi pabrik Lafarge dan Holcim lebih menyebar dan saling memperkuat posisi 18 Cement Capacity (MT) CAPACITY SHARE IN SOUTH EAST ASIA Capacity Share of Major Players Vicem 10% Italcementi 4% Capacity Share of Major Players Post Merger Heidelberger 12% Other 7% Heidelberger 12% Other 7% Holcim 23% SMI 17% Vicem 10% Italcementi 4% Lafarge Holcim 34% SMI 17% SCG 13% Lafarge 11% Cemex 3% SCG 13% Cemex 3% Dengan merger Lafarge dengan Holcim, maka Kapasitas produksinya mampu memenuhi 34% konsumsi semen di Asia Tenggara dan meningkat 2 kali kapasitas Semen Indonesia FINANCIAL UPDATE SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 FINANCIAL SUMMARY: 1Q2014 RESULTS Description (Rpbn) 1Q2013 1Q2014 Change (%) Revenue 5,544 6,178 11.4 Cost of revenue 3,059 3,503 14.5 Gross profit 2,485 2,675 7.7 880 1,021 16.0 Operating income 1,605 1,655 3.1 Ebitda 1,862 1,953 4.9 Operating expenses Profit attributable to equity holders of parent entity (Net Income) 1,236 1,303 5.4 EBITDA (Rp billion) 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 1,862 1,125 3M-10 1,410 1,185 3M-11 1,953 3M-12 3M-13 3M-14 EBITDA Margin (%) 3M-10 3M-11 3M-12 3M-13 3M-14 34.6% 33.3% 32.9% 33.6% 31.6% NET INCOME (Rp billion) EPS (full amount) Ratio (%) 208 Formula 220 5.4 1Q13 1Q14 Ebitda margin Ebitda / Revenue 33.59 31.61 Interest coverage (x) Ebitda / Interest expense 24.65 24.50 Cost ratio [COGS + Opex] / Revenue Total debt to equity *) Total debt / Total equity 18.72 18.61 Total debt to asset *) Total debt / Total asset 13.26 11.96 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 1,236 802 3M-10 71.16 1,303 1,011 871 3M-11 3M-12 3M-13 3M-14 73.47 NET INCOME Margin (%) 3M-10 3M-11 3M-12 3M-13 3M-14 24.7% 24.4% 23.5% 22.3% 21.1% STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND RETURNS Cash balance (IDR bn) Total debt (IDR bn) * Include short term investment 5.283 3.905 3.846 2008 2009 2010 3.682 2011 3.317 2012 4.083 2012 2013 1Q2014 3.838 4.719 4.213 2013 3.850 1.871 686 251 199 2008 2009 1Q2014 Debt/EBITDA 2010 2011 Return on Assets 2,00x 0.56x 0,50x 24,0% 2012 2008 25,8% 23,5% 20,1% 18,2% 17,4% 2011 2012 2013 0,35x 0,06x 0,04x 2008 2009 0,14x 2010 2011 The projected adjusted debt/EBITDA of 2.0x to maintain rating level from Moody’s Investors Service. 2013 2009 2010 REGULAR DIVIDEND PAYMENTS WITH ATTRACTIVE YIELD Total Dividend Payout 3000 2,416.6 2,181.3 1,962.7 1,829.5 1,816.7 2500 2000 1500 1000 REGULAR DIVIDENDS Total Dividend (IDR billion) 1,261.7 887.7 500 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SMGR DIVIDEND PAY OUT RATIO IN THE LAST 7 YEARS Average: 50% 50% 2007 50% 2008 55% 2009 50% 2010 50% 2011 45% 2012 45% 2013 Key determinants of dividend policy: • Historical dividend payout trends • Comparison with peers • Projected cash-flows available for dividends (after taking into account potential expansionary capex etc) • Analyst and investor expectations STRATEGIC PROJECTS SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 SMGR LONG TERM STRATEGIC FOCUS THE OVERALL STRATEGY COMBINES 6 CRITICAL ELEMENTS 1. Undertake Capacity Growth 2. Manage Energy Security 3. Enhance Company Image 4. Move Closer To The Customer 5. Enable Corporate Growth 6. Manage Key Risks SMIG CEMENT PLANTS PROJECTS Capacity Investment (mn tons) (US$ mn) Construction Start Completed Indarung VI-SumBar 3.0 352 2013 Q4-2015 2015 Rembang-Java 2 3.0 403 2013 Q2-2016 2016 TOTAL CAPEX 6.0 755 Tuban New Plants Location Tuban’s view Preheater Tuban IV Tonasa Pyroprocessing Tonasa V Raw Mill Dept. Tonasa V Tonasa These strategic projects will ensure sustainability of the Company’s market leadership ESP Power Plant Jetty Extension Area INSTALLED CAPACITY (Mio Ton) Installed Capacity 39,3 30 31,8 40,8 33,3 25,3 17,1 18 19 19 20,2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F CONCLUSION: WHY SMGR? SMGR Corporate Presentation JUNE 2014 SMGR’s COMPARATIVE & COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE DRIVES DRIVE SMGR TO BE THE MARKET LEADER IN INDONESIA Outstanding business performance Strengths of SMGR Experienced management team Outstanding business performance Favorable industry outlook Conservative capital structure and financial policies Outstanding performance Robust cash flow generation – Leading cement player in Indonesia with over 43.8% market share based on sales volume for 10M-2013 and approximately 41% share of total installed cement capacity (Source: Indonesia Cement Association (“ASI”)) – Strategically plants location is close to key markets throughout the country – As of Dec 2012, acquired Thang Long Cement Company, Vietnam by 70% share with installed capacity 2.3 mio tons per annum – Substantial growth opportunities through expansion and optimization – Superior distribution network and strong brands recognition – Long-term Long access to raw materials for cement production and coal for fuel consumption – Concerns on environmental and Corporate Social Responsibility programs to ensure sustainable growth. Favourable industry outlook – Cement consumption pretty much in-line in with Indonesian economic growth – Real estate and infrastructure projects and declining interest rates key demand drivers – High barriers to entry (plant, distribution and brand investment costs) – Disciplined investment on supply side Robust cash flow generation – Historically strong revenue, margin and price trends – High plant utilization and strong focus on cost and revenue management Conservative capital structure and financial policies – [Investment grade-like grade credit metrics] – Conservative capital structure policy; low use of leverage – Access to capital markets for expansion initiatives Experienced management team – Experienced and successful management team THANK YOU IMPORTANT NOTICE THIS PRESENTATION IS NOT AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE OR FORM PART OF, AND IS NOT MADE IN CONNECTION WITH, ANY OFFER FOR SALE OR SUBSCRIPTION OF OR SOLICITATION, RECOMMENDATION OR INVITATION OF ANY OFFER TO BUY OR SUBSCRIBE FOR ANY SECURITIES NOR SHALL IT OR ANY PART OF IT FORM THE BASIS OF OR BE RELIED ON IN CONNECTION WITH ANY CONTRACT, COMMITMENT OR INVESTMENT DECISION WHATSOEVER. WHATSOEVER THE SLIDES USED IN THIS PRESENTATION ARE STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL AND HAVE BEEN PREPARED AS A SUPPORT FOR ORAL DISCUSSIONS ONLY. THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION IS BEING PRESENTED TO YOU SOLELY FOR YOUR INFORMATION AND MAY NOT BE REPRODUCED OR REDISTRIBUTED TO ANY OTHER PERSON, IN WHOLE OR IN PART. This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations and forecast about future events. Such statements involve known / unknown risks uncertainties and other factors, which could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated. Such factors include, among others: ● economic, social and political conditions in Indonesia, and the impact such conditions have on construction and infrastructure infrastructur spending in Indonesia; ● the effects of competition; ● the effects of changes in laws, regulations, taxation or accounting standards or practices; ● acquisitions, divestitures and various business opportunities that we may pursue; ● changes or volatility in inflation, interest rates and foreign exchange rates; ● accidents, natural disasters or outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as avian influenza, in our markets; ● labor unrest or other similar situations; and ● the outcome of pending or threatened litigation. We can give no assurance that our expectations will be attained. DISCLAIMER The information contained in this report has been taken from sources which we deem reliable. However, none of PT Semen Indonesia Indone (Persero) Tbk and/or its affiliated companies and/or their respective employees and/or agents make any representation or warranty (express or implied) or accepts any responsibility or liability as to, or in relation to, the accuracy or completeness of the information and opinions contained in this report or as to any information contained in this report or any other such information informa or opinions remaining unchanged after the issue thereof. We expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) ( Tbk, its affiliated companies and their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claim, proceedings, action, suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a result of acting in reliance upon the whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) ( Tbk, its affiliated companies or their respective employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omission or mis-statements, statements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission omi therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed. Gresik Office: Semen Indonesia Tower Jln. Veteran Gresik 61122 – Indonesia Phone: (62-31) 3981731 -2, 3981745 Fax: (62-31) 3983209, 3972264 Jakarta Office: The East Building, 18th Floor, Jln. DR. Ide Anak Agung Gde Agung Kav. E3.2 No.1, Mega Kuningan, Jakarta 12950 – Indonesia Phone : (62-21) 5261174 – 5 Fax : (62-21) 5261176 www.semenindonesia.com COGM & COGS BREAKDOWN (1Q-2014) ( COGM / Ton* Raw & Supporting Material Fuel Electricity Direct Labor 1Q-2013(Rp) 28,786 111,032 69,931 47,997 1Q-2014 (Rp) 30,675 121,821 76,794 49,610 CHANGE (%) 6.6% COGS / Ton** 1Q-2013 (Rp) 1Q-2014 (Rp) COGM 350,094 386,976 10.5% Packaging 33,976 37,668 10.9% Transportation 73,012 87,380 19.7% Other 24,039 8,759 (63.6%) 481,121 520,784 9.7% 9.8% 3.4% COGS Maintenance 39,032 48,392 CHANGE (%) 8.2% 24.0% **) Divided by sales volume exclude commercial volume for sales Depletion, Depreciation & Amortization 38,036 41,279 8.5% GA, Tax & Insurance 15,281 18,405 20.4% 350,094 386,976 10.5% COGM *) Divided by cement production exclude commercial volume for production DOMESTIC DEMAND VS NATIONAL CAPACITY (2013 (201 – 2017) ‘000 tons Design Capacity Real Production Consumption Cement 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F ton(‘000) Installed Capacity Real Production Consumption Surplus/(deficit) Domestic Utilization Export Domestic Consumption Growth 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 68,000 55,200 58,580 -3,380 100% 500 71,500 62,205 62,095 110 100% 500 82,200 69,870 65,820 4,050 94% 500 97,800 78,240 69,770 8,470 89% 500 100,800 85,680 73,956 11,724 86% 500 5.5% 6% 6% 6% 6% ADDITIONAL INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS New Cement Capacity from Existing Players (2013 – 2017) No Company Targeted Plant Location Declared Capacity (mn tons) 1 Semen Indonesia Java, Sumatera, Sulawesi 11.5 9.0 2 Indocement Java, Kalimantan 8.8 6.3 1,560 (E) Cement Mill + brown/greenfield 3 Holcim East Java 3.8 3.4 680 (E) Brown/Greenfield 4 Bosowa Java, Sulawesi 7.9 3.4 620 Cement Mill + Brownfield 5 Semen Andalas Sumatera 1.6 0 300 Greenfield 6 Semen Baturaja Sumatera 2.6 1.5 325 Greenfield/Brownfield 36.2 23.6 TOTAL Prognose Design Capacity (mn tons) 970 Prognose Design Capacity (mn tons) Remarks Upgrading + green/brownfield 4,130 No Company Targeted Plant Location 1 Siam Cement (Thailand) Sukabumi, West Java 1.8 1.8 360 Greenfield 2 CNBM (China) Central Java 2.4 0 350 Greenfield, Semen Grobogan 3 Semen Merah Putih Bayah, Lebak, Banten 11.5 3.0 600 Greenfield (PT Cemindo Gemilg) 4 Anhui Conch Cement - Tanjung - Tanah Grogot - Pontianak - West Papua Various - South Kalimantan - East Kalimantan - West Kalimantan - West Papua 13.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 2.4 3.0 2,350 400 600 600 750 Greenfield Greenfield Greenfield Greenfield Greenfield 5 Ultratech Wonogiri, Centr Java 4.5 0 827 Greenfield 6 Semen Puger East Java 0.6 0 n.a Upgrading 7 Semen Barru Barru, South Sulawesi 3.3 0 470 Greenfield (Fajar Group) 8 Semen Panasia Ajibarang, Central Java 2.0 1.5 240 Greenfield 9 Jui Shin Indonesia Karawang, West Java 1.5 1.5 n.a Greenfield 40.3 10.8 4,470 TOTAL Declared Capacity (mn tons) Investment (US$ mn) Investment (US$ mn) Remarks + Local Partner Infrastructure Project in Corridor orridor #1 (Trans Sumatera) Development Phases: Phase I (2015-2020) - Bakauheni-Indralaya - Pekanbaru-Medan Phase II (2020-2025) - Indralaya-Pekanbaru - Medan-Banda Aceh - Tebing Tinggi-Sibolga Phase III (>2025) - Pekanbaru-Padang - Palembang-Bengkulu 1 2 Medan - Aceh 3 Pekanbaru - Medan SEMEN ANADALAS SEMEN BATURAJA 1 Grinding Plant Lampung 2 Grinding Plant Palembang 4 5 Indralaya - Pekanbaru SEMEN PADANG PACKING PLANT 1 Malahayati 2 Lhokseumawe 3 Medan 4 Batam 5 Dumai Grinding Plant Dumai SOURCES : DIREKTORAT JENDERAL BINA MARGA 2 Bakaheuni - Indralaya 1 UP GRADING CAPACITY PLAN Year Plant Design Capacity (mio tons) Est. Time Operation Location 2013 New Cement Mill 1.5 Q3 Tuban 2014 New Cement Mill 0.9 Q3 Dumai Cement Mill 0.4 Q2 Gresik Plant B 2015 New Cement Mill 1.5 Q3 Tonasa 2015 New Cement Plant 3.0 Q4 Indarung 2016 New Cement Plant 3.0 Q2 Rembang 2017 New Cement Plant - - Domestic Area