Mandurah Strategic Transport Modelling

Technical Note: No 2
Project No: T10.195
Project: Mandu rah Strategic Transport Modelling
Date: 26/10/2012
Subject: Sensitivity Analysis, Reduced Land uses
Introduction
The City of Mandurah has commissioned Transcore to undertake a sensitivity
analysis involving an additional modelling scenario to investigate the impact of
reducing the future proposed land uses for retail, showroom and office in the
Mandurah Inner Area. The sensitivity analysis is based on the following land
use reductions:
•
•
•
City Centre: 60% of the proposed Gross Floor Area (GFA) for retail,
showrooms and offices;
Pinjarra Road: 60% of the proposed GFA for retail, showrooms and
offices; and,
Gordon Road: 50% of the proposed GFA for retail, showrooms and
offices.
Purpose of Technical Note
The purpose of this technical note is to assess the impact of the proposed
revised land uses on the roads within Mandurah Inner Area and establish
what level of road network (including bridges) upgrades is required compared
to the 100% future land use development.
Proposed Land Uses
Table 1 summarises the proposed revised land uses (square metres GFA) for
the future (year 2031) scenario.
Table 1: Proposed Revised Future land uses
Areas
City Centre
Pinjarra Road
Gordon Road
Retail
64,800
9,900
9,250
Showroom
3,600
12,000
71,500
Office
35,400
6,000
20,500
Appendix 1 illustrates the boundaries of the above areas with the reported
land uses.
Accordingly, relevant zones in each of the above areas were selected in the
EMME model and the corresponding land uses were reduced based on the
assumptions.
Modelling Results
Figure 1 illustrates the projected daily traffic volumes for the revised land
uses scenario modelled in this sensitivity analysis.
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Figure 1: Projected Daily Traffic Volumes for the Revised Land Uses
scenario
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Figure 2 illustrates the comparison between the revised land uses scenario
and the 100% land use scenario. In this figure green is traffic decrease and
red is traffic increase.
Figure 2: Changes in Daily Traffic Flows in the Sensitivity Analysis
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Figure 2 indicates that land use reduction within Mandurah Inner Area will
reduce the level of traffic in this area and will increase the level of traffic on
the other roads outside the inner area. Basically, if there are less shops and
offices in the Mandurah Town Centre then less people will come into the town
centre for those services and will travel further out to find them.
Figure 2 also indicates that traffic reduction on the two bridges and in the
Halls Head — Falcon area is minimal. The reason for this is that this area has
a lower than average amount of retail, showroom and office land uses in the
model, so a significant amount of traffic production from this area has to travel
to traffic attractions outside of this area, either in the Mandurah Inner Area or
further to the north and east. In both scenarios these trips still have to cross
the Mandurah Traffic Bridge or Mandurah Estuary Bridge.
Comparing the projected traffic volumes for the sensitivity analysis with the
model run for the 100% land use scenario indicates traffic reduction on the
majority of the roads within the Mandurah Inner Area. Table 2 summarises
the daily traffic reductions on major roads. A copy of the projected traffic
volumes for the 2031 model with 100% land use scenario is provided in
Appendix 2 for comparison.
Table 2: Traffic reduction in the revised land uses scenario
Major Roads
Mandurah Terrace
Sutton Street
Anstruther Road
Peel Street
Cooper Street
Davey and Lanyon Street
Mandurah Traffic Bridge
Mandurah Estuary Bridge
Traffic reduction
800
3,800
2,700
3,400
2,100
5,100
1,000
500
Percentage reduction
26%
11%
5%
17%
13%
30%
3%
1%
In order to demonstrate the impact of the traffic reductions on the roads within
the Mandurah Inner Area, Volume over Capacity (VoC) plots for the sensitivity
analysis and the 100% land uses scenarios were extracted from the model
and are illustrated in Figures 3 and 4 respectively. The VoC plots show the
congested links or the links where the traffic volume exceeds capacity.
The VoC analysis indicates that for the sensitivity analysis:
• Overall there would be less congestion (VoC >1) on the roads within
Mandurah Inner Area;
• The City Centre roads would experience less congestion;
• No major congestion is expected for the roads between Sutton Street
and Dower Street;
• Some congestion is expected on the roads surrounding Mandurah
Centro which is mainly related to the shopping centre traffic; and,
• Lack of congestion induces through traffic within the Town Centre.
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0 ‹VoC‹ U.S
0.5 <Vot.: 0.3
0.8 <VoC‹ 1
l<VEIC
Figure 3: VoC Plot for the Revised Land Uses scenario
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0 <11aC‹ 0.5
03 <VIDC‹ 0.8
O.B <VoC< 1
l<VDC
Figure 4: VoC Plot for the Ultimate Land Uses scenario
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In order to investigate the level of through traffic for the sensitivity analysis
scenario within the Mandurah Inner Area a select zone analysis was
undertaken for the zones within the Mandurah Inner Area and the land uses
along Gordon Road. Figure 5 illustrates the level of through traffic within the
Mandurah Inner Area in the revised land uses scenario.
auo
1re,,
19284
19284
19284
19225
72 5
—
Figure 5: Through Traffic on roads within the Mandurah Inner Area
under the Revised Land Uses Scenario.
"mil"
19225
Figure 5 indicates that there would be about 6,600vpd through traffic on the
Mandurah Traffic Bridge which will be distributed to Sutton Street and Pinjarra
Road.
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With the reduced traffic flows in the Mandurah Inner Area in this revised land
uses scenario the standard of some of the suggested road upgrades can be
reduced. Davey Street and Lanyon Street can be reduced to a
"neighbourhood connector" standard instead of "integrator B" standard. The
eastern section of Cooper Street from Anstruther Road to Dower Street can
also be reduced to neighbourhood connector standard.
Conclusion
Reducing the future amount of retail, showrooms and office land uses within
the Mandurah Inner Area will reduce traffic volumes on the road network in
this area and improve the level of congestion on roads within this area.
However, reduced congestion on city centre roads will allow more through
traffic within the City Centre due to spare capacity that will be available on
these roads.
With the reduced traffic flows in the Mandurah Inner Area in this revised land
uses scenario the standard of some of the suggested road upgrades can be
reduced. Davey Street and Lanyon Street can be reduced to a
"neighbourhood connector" standard. The eastern section of Cooper Street
from Anstruther Road to Dower Street can also be reduced to neighbourhood
connector standard.
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Appendix 1: Mandurah Strategic Centre Overview
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
CD
I.tardu-ah City Centre
ReSiOna1Oper Space
Centro Mardsrat• Retel
Capes and RecreatIan
Uwe:cosh POD
Poo* Pr,doses
CD
CD
CD
tierce -eh Terrace Mixed Use
•••-■
\
i•otonlaI Nest Marhas
loner trandcrar idled Use
*jar. Road Wired Business
Key Entrance Roads
Go•dor Road Wise& Brrsicess
Key Connector Roads
Marina Service P•erinct
Neigottou•t000 Corrector
Schoch & Edticzion
RalleraYS I SiaSi''s
Pest Helms Campos
Secondary Transit Noterart
Motto. Density Rtelde ,151
Wairatie Catc.rrrents/
s
MarsAraq
Ors
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PET
Strategic Centre BOundary
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Appendix 2: Projected Daily Traffic Volumes for the Proposed Ultimate
Land Uses Scenario
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