TACTICS: Autumn 2016 - Australian Strategic Policy Institute

Autumn 2016
TACT I CS
Welcome to Tactics - the ASPI Newsletter.
ASPI staff have had a busy quarter with the successful delivery of our conference; a
long list of publications and many other ASPI events; the arrival of new staff, Visiting
Fellows and others consolidating recently filled positions. It is pleasing that new
areas like the CT Policy Centre and the Resilience program are establishing their
professional footing in town and building connections to the Public Service, MPs
and media.
The conference, ‘Defence White Paper: from the page to reality’, held in Canberra
on 6-7 April 2016 was a resounding success. High profile speakers included John
Howard, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Defence Minister, Marise Payne and Kim
Beazley. The conference was attended by over 300 people.
ASPI participated in the successful Spain-Australia Foundation Cyber Dialogue held
in Canberra on 5 May 2016. The Dialogue was an opportunity to learn more about
the work that Spain is doing in the area of cyber security.
The term of three Council members concluded during this period. I would like to
thank Prof Alison Jones and Prof Samina Yasmeen for their contribution to the ASPI
Council. I would also particularly place on record my thanks to Stephen Loosley who
was a member of the very first ASPI Council in 2001 and who has been Chairman
since 2008. His contribution to the direction and growth of ASPI has been significant
during his long association with ASPI and it has been a pleasure working with him.
Peter Jennings, Executive Director
www.aspi.org.au
www.aspistrategist.org.au
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
PROGRAMS
International Forum for the Challenges of Peace
Operations and engage in a series of meetings with UN
officials and member states to inform ongoing research.
The most significant event in this period for the ASPI
Defence and Strategy Program was the launch of the
annual Cost of Defence budget brief. As usual, this
publication has attracted a lot of media interest, and
it remains the ‘go to’ resource for anyone trying to
understand the complexities of defence budgeting.
Lisa Sharland launching the Aus-Africa 2015 Dialogue report
This quarter, ASPI’s International Cyber Policy Centre
(ICPC) has provided significant commentary on the new
Australian Cyber Security Strategy and hosted several
roundtables and events discussing key cyber issues,
including a 1.5 track dialogue with Spain.
Mark Thomson launching the Cost of Defence
The Defence and Strategy team were deeply involved
in analysis of the Defence White Paper and of the
government’s decision on a design partner for the future
submarines. We also published anthologies of selected
articles from The Strategist on the White Paper and the
submarine decision (as well as at the new InFocus page).
There were also two papers by external authors on North
Asian strategic matters. Sheryn Lee and Ben Schreer
wrote for us on the topic of Taiwan’s election outcome,
and Brad Glosserman took a look at Japan’s role in North
Asian security.
The International Program has been focused on UN
peace operations and Australia’s engagement with Africa
this past quarter. The report from the ASPI-Brenthurst
Foundation 2015 Aus-Africa Dialogue was launched
in Canberra in early June to representatives from the
diplomatic community, Australian Government, the
private sector and civil society.
It explores some of the recommendations to enhance
the relationship between the two continents on issues
ranging from the role of government and the private
sector in combating terrorism and transnational
organised crime to infrastructure development and
professional services.
Throughout the quarter, Lisa Sharland continued her
engagement on peace operations reform, travelling
to New York in early May to take part in the annual
In April, Head of ICPC, Dr Tobias Feakin, attended the
launch of the new Australian Cyber Security Strategy in
Sydney. In his remarks the Prime Minister thanked Dr
Feakin for his contribution to the report and participation
in the Cyber Security Review’s Expert Panel. Before the
launch, Dr Feakin attended a roundtable with the Prime
Minister on cybersecurity and business links. ICPC has
commented on the new Strategy through the publication
of five posts on The Strategist and through analysis in
ASPI’s Agenda for Change publication. Dr Feakin has
presented on the new Australian Cyber Security Strategy
at the Australian Cyber Security Centre conference, a 1.5
track dialogue with Spain, the National Fintech Cyber
Security Summit and the CeBIT Conference.
ICPC has hosted several roundtables and events during
the quarter. On 30 March, ICPC hosted a roundtable
with UNSW and senior Army officers to discuss Army’s
approach to cyber security and operations. The
roundtable discussed threats that Army faces, its current
and future approaches to technology acquisition and
sustainment, capability growth in the single service
and joint contexts, workforce challenges and ways
forward. Chief of Army LTGEN Angus Campbell led
the final session, reflecting on the day’s discussion.
A publication that summarises the discussion and
provides recommendations for Army’s approach to
cyber operations will be released shortly. In April, ICPC
Analyst Jessica Woodall delivered a workshop on private
sector’s involvement in international cyber norms in
Sydney, with attendees including representatives from
Telstra, the Commonwealth Bank, Qantas, Fairfax and
Origin Energy. She is currently preparing a paper based
on the study.
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
ICPC hosted a 1.5 track dialogue on 5 May 2016 with the
Spain Australia Council Foundation addressing ‘How
Australia and Spain face cybersecurity challenges’,
attended by Spanish and Australian government and
private sector representatives.
The dialogue discussed the national security
television and radio media in April as counter-terrorism
issues featured in public debate. Jacinta Carroll authored
an article in The Australian on the call for amended
firearms legislation on the 20th anniversary of the Port
Arthur shootings, and spoke with Triple M’s Grill Team
on Sydney radio about counter-extremisms in relation
to the 2016 ANZAC Day plot. Carroll and Anthony Bergin
also published co-authored articles in The Australian on
the need for greater efforts to disarm terrorist bombers,
and on expanding provisions to strip citizenship from
terrorists.
CTPC visited Sydney to continue engagement with
stakeholders in New South Wales, including NSW Police,
NSW Department of Premier and Cabinet and Army
Forces Command.
Peter Jennings & Tobias Feakin with Spanish officials at the Spain
Australia Council 1.5 track dialogue.
implications of cyberspace for both countries, threats
to critical infrastructure and cybercrime. The dialogue
facilitated fruitful discussions on the shared challenges
of cyberspace and the potential for greater bilateral
cooperation in this area.
CTPC undertook international CT engagement through
meetings with German think-tank Konrad Adnauer
Stiftung (KAS) and European embassies in Canberra. An
Australia-EU CT Dialogue, jointly sponsored with KAS, is
scheduled for November as a follow-up to the successful
inaugural Dialogue in October 2015. Jacinta Carroll was
also a panel member at the annual Australian Press
Council conference alongside journalist Peter Greste,
former Independent National Security Legislation
Monitor Bret Walker and editor-in-chief of Indonesian
newspaper Tempo, Bambang Harymurti.
On 17th May, ICPC held an event to discuss the future
of encryption and the challenges it presents for law
enforcement. Thomas Daeman, Director Corporate,
External and Legal Affairs of Microsoft Australia/NZ,
along with Robert Morrish, CEO of Australian tech startup
Haventec, and Peter Whowell, Manager of Counter
Terrorism Engagement and Operations Support at the
AFP provided a diverse discussion on the benefits and
difficulties presented by encryption in today’s context.
The need for agile legislative frameworks that can keep
up with the rapid development of modern technology
was identified by the panel as a key challenge for the
coming year.
A CTPC Special Report by Charlie Winter on Islamic
State’s online recruitment was launched on 25 May.
ICPC International Fellow Jim Lewis published an
Insights paper Cyberspace and armed forces: the rationale
for offensive cyber capabilities. The paper addressed the
need for armed forces to develop the full range of military
cyber capabilities with both offensive and defensive
application, create a centralised command structure for
those capabilities, with clear requirements for politicallevel approval for action and to embed those capabilities
in doctrine and a legal framework based on international
law, to ensure they retain military effectiveness.
Jacinta Carroll launching the Islamic State Recruitment publication
ASPI’s Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre (CTPC)
continued to be a prominent voice in print, online,
The CTPC facilitated government policy debate through
Jacinta Carroll chairing the Regional Engagement
session at ASPI’s Defence White Paper conference,
and chairing the Office of the Counter-Terrorism
Coordinator’s Academic Roundtable on Countering
Violent Extremism, attended by prominent academics
from around Australia.
During this quarter the Border Security Program has
continued to produce a number of long form research
reports, host border security related events as well as
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
present at a range of domestic and international fora.
Research into international engagement on border
security has continued throughout the quarter.
The border security program has three major research
publications in the final stages of production. The
program has now finalised the production of its
unmanned maritime vehicle report. In addition, the
program’s studies on the Schengen and US border are
now in final stages of development.
In May the Head of Border Security Dr John Coyne
coordinated the event ‘A Night with Richard Marles’ the
Shadow Minister for Immigration and Border Protection.
The same month John hosted the latest event in the
ASPI Thales Border Security Breakfast Series with the
Australian Border Force Commissioner as the keynote
speaker.
In late May, John participated in a series of workshops
in Bangkok, Phnom Penh and Vientiane on the
implementation of the United Nations Convention
Against Corruption. The workshops involved a range of
ASEAN participants from the private, public and nonprofit sectors.
The program has also been busy in other ways: we
hosted AFP Commissioner Andrew Colvin for a public
presentation in February; David Connery undertook
the fieldwork phase of his Churchill Fellowship in late
February-early April; Cesar Alvarez and Simon Norton
produced a number of media articles and interviews
with a focus on corruption; Paula Chadderton produced
her first op-ed and blogs; we have assisted AUSTRAC
with a training needs analysis into counter-terrorism
financing; the team supported ASPI’s Agenda for Change
publication and supported ASPI’s Better Policy and
roundtable programs. In the next quarter, the program
will commence a new project on the future of financial
crime and extend our work on information sharing
about crime.
The launch of the Risk and Resilience Program took place
at Parliament House on 18 April 2016. The launch was
officiated by Minister Keenan, with support from Mark
Crosweller, Director General-Emergency Management
Australia, Tony Pearce, Inspector-General Emergency
Management, Victoria and Iain Mackenzie, InspectorGeneral Emergency Management Queensland, who all
made brief comments on the risk and resilience issues in
Australia and the value of the program.
ASPI’s Border Security Program has continued as
a regular media commentator on border security
issues. This work has crossed a number of complex
and challenging issues from the bilateral sharing of
information on death penalty offences, to racial profiling,
the militarisation of Australia’s border, transnational
organised crime and illicit drugs.
The Strategic Policing and Law Enforcement Program
has focused on five key projects in recent months. The
first is a joint paper by Paula Chadderton and Simon
Norton on counter-terrorism financing. This paper is
being developed in collaboration with Jacinta Carroll’s
Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre, and will be published
in time for the Australia-Indonesia Countering Terrorism
Financing Summit in August. Dr David Connery and Dr
Phil Kowalick, the current president of the Australian
Institute of Professional Intelligence Officers, have
collaborated to examine how Australia could optimise
its system for collecting and disseminating criminal
intelligence overseas. This report will also recommend
a new national criminal intelligence priority setting
mechanism. Cesar Alvarez and David Connery are
examining the concept and practice of law enforcement
diplomacy in Australia, which they are finding is a highly
useful but not a well appreciated tool for pursuing
Australia’s interests overseas. Lastly, Mitchell Sutton
and Serge De Silva have written a comprehensive report
about the transnational crime situation in Sri Lanka, and
examined its implications for Australia and the region.
Minister Keenan with Dr Paul Barnes
The launch document for the program was a special
report: Bolstering National Disaster Resilience: What
can be done? This report outlined a number of key
issues central to national interests regarding risk and
resilience. The report also listed a number of areas for
ongoing research work planned for the program.
Dr Paul Barnes represented ASPI at the 2nd Climate
Change Security Roundtable organised by the
Department of Defence and the Climate Council. This
meeting convened a selection of participants from an
earlier event, with a broader cross-section of additional
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
experts from a variety of backgrounds to discuss current
work on climate change and its security implications in
Australia.
Paul also participated in a pilot program on ‘Policy for
Emergency Management’: delivered to senior officials of
the Queensland Fire & Emergency Services. This session
was to proof the design of a fully funded Emergency
Management version of the ASPI one day Better Policy
Program.
had a bit of turbulence in our relations due to the Bali 9
executions, which in my view could have been handled
better by our side, but I notice that the relationship
has rebounded since then. People-to-people relations
remain very strong and this makes a lot of difference.
It is my hope that strong relations with Australia will
continue to be a foreign policy priority for the Jokowi
administration. To keep the momentum, I also strongly
encourage President Jokowi to visit Australia, perhaps
after your elections this year.
The program also participated in the ASPI forum - “How
Australia and Spain face cyber security challenges”
with representatives from both Australian and Spanish
government and private sector groups engaged in cybersecurity and critical infrastructure resilience.
Paul Barnes participated in an Emergency Management
Australia – Australasian Fire Authorities Council
sponsored workshop on national approaches
to capability planning for major catastrophes in
Melbourne. This forum resulted in a report - ‘National
Emergency Management Capability Roadmap’ which
detailed the views of various working groups on gaps
and opportunities to deal with a range of large disasters
events.
He also presented on “Challenges of Developing a
National Resilience Strategy” at the Future of Emergency
Management Conference, Wellington New Zealand. The
conference hosted by the NZ Ministry of Civil Defence
and Emergency Management (MCDEM). MCDEM is
currently working on a national resilience strategy so
the exchange of information was a good opportunity to
understand New Zealand’s approaches to this challenge.
THE STRATEGIST
The Strategist team recently introduced “The Strategist
Six”, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking
of prominent academics, government officials, military
officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around
the world.
The Strategist Six
Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono
1. Under your presidency, bilateral relations between
Indonesia and Australia improved markedly. How do
you view the state of the relationship today?
Well, ​I believe it is in good order now. President Jokowi
and Prime Minister Turnbull should continue to build
on the foundations that have been developed: our
Comprehensive Partnership, and the Lombok Treaty. We
Peter Jennings, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono & Kim Beazley at the
Defence White Paper conference
2. What would you nominate as your most significant
achievement after 10 years in office?
It’s hard to point to just one, to be honest. But I can say
with confidence that during my presidency, Indonesia
continued its upward trajectory across the board: we
became a stronger democracy, an emerging economy,
a more united nation, more peaceful and more actively
engaged internationally. The World Economic Forum
called it Indonesia’s ‘Golden Decade’. I wouldn’t disagree
with them.
I also think it is historically important for Indonesia that,
after serving two terms, I stepped down from power the
same way I came into it: peacefully, constitutionally and
democratically. I think I left Indonesia in much better
shape a decade later than when I first took oath in 2004.
But I will leave it to history to judge.
3. Indonesia enjoyed very strong economic growth
under your presidency. How do you maintain the
momentum of strong domestic growth and generate
the foreign investment necessary for greater
prosperity?
During the 10 years I was President, our GDP per capita
increased by more than 300%. We became a trillion
dollar economy, we pushed poverty down significantly
and had the fastest growing middle class in Southeast
Asia. Our debt to GDP ratio was among the lowest in the
G20, around 23%. At one point in time, the Indonesian
economy was the second fastest growing among the
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
G20 after China.
There were several factors that contributed to our strong
macro-economic performance. We had strong economic
teams. We constantly maintained prudent monetary
and fiscal policy, and maintained a balanced budget. We
made important structural changes, including reducing
fuel subsidies not once but several times, while increasing
social safety nets. We launched a very aggressive and
indiscriminate anti-corruption campaign. And we were
persistent in pursuing our economic mantra, which was
‘pro-growth, pro-job, pro-poor and pro-environment’.
That is why when the global financial crisis hit us in
2008, we were able to maintain growth above 4%, even
though many fellow G20 nations were stagnating.
4. You were Indonesia’s first democratically elected
president. Do you think that Indonesia’s democratic
institutions are continuing to strengthen and function
effectively?
I sure hope so. Democracy is strongest when the
institutions are functioning, and weakest when the
institutions are frail. This is true for all countries,
including Indonesia. Building institutions is a neverending process. Once you falter, there is always a danger
of bad habits returning.
Anything is possible, but the situation is still manageable.
The South China Sea disputes won’t be resolved in
the near future, so the best thing we can do now is to
manage it. The claimants must have the political will
to work together to handle the disputes peacefully, and
refrain from provocative acts. Regional countries must
also be active in encouraging confidence-building. I
think an open conflict is avoidable, but we must do the
hard diplomatic work.
I keep reminding all claimant states to avoid
miscalculation because I do believe that open conflict
could occur because of either miscalculation or an
unexpected incident on the ground.
PUBLICATIONS
ASPI continues to produce high quality reports, articles
and opinions. All publications are available for download
at: aspi.org.au
5. The whole of ASEAN is focused on the rise of China.
How do you think ASEAN should deal with China’s
ambitions in the South China Sea?
The rise of China has helped ASEAN economies grow.
China has become the largest trading partner for most,
if not all, ASEAN economies. China is also investing more
in Southeast Asia, so the region has benefited from
China’s rise.
The South China Sea is a strategic challenge to all of us.​
Only four ASEAN countries are claimants in the South
China Sea. The rest of ASEAN just want to calm the
flashpoint.
ASEAN does have a common position on the South China
Sea. We have the ASEAN Declaration which was made in
1982, and I understand that Indonesia’s six points for
addressing issues in the South China Sea remain a valid
reference point for ASEAN.
The most important thing now is that ASEAN and China
must be able to agree to a Code of Conduct in the South
China Sea. I believe the negotiation is progressing. But
we need to conclude the Code of Conduct sooner rather
than later, because the situation is getting more difficult
with China’s reclamation and other developments.
6. How close is the South China Sea to becoming a
scene of conflict?
Agenda for Change 2016: Strategic choices for the
next government
The defence of Australia’s interests is a core business
of federal governments. Regardless of who wins the
election on July 2, the incoming government will have
to grapple with a wide range of security issues. This
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
report provides a range of perspectives on selected
defence and national security issues, as well as a number
of policy recommendations.
Contributors include Kim Beazley, Peter Jennings,
Graeme Dobell, Shiro Armstrong, Andrew Davies, Tobias
Feakin, Malcolm Davis, Rod Lyon, Mark Thomson,
Jacinta Carroll, Paul Barnes, John Coyne, David Connery,
Anthony Bergin, Lisa Sharland, Christopher Cowan,
James Mugg, Simon Norton, Cesar Alvarez, Jessica
Woodall, Zoe Hawkins, Liam Nevill, Dione Hodgson,
David Lang, Amelia Long and Lachlan Wilson.
transnational jihadist movements and insurgency. As
well as managing a Department of Defense Minerva
Research Initiative Project, ‘Preventing the next
generation: mapping the pathways of child mobilization
into violent extremist organizations’, he is quantitatively
and qualitatively assessing Islamic State’s outreach
strategy, and specialising in the sourcing, translation,
and analysis of Arabic-language documents circulated
online by jihadists.
The eagle has landed: The US rebalance to Southeast
Asia. Peter Chalk
An integrated approach to Islamic State recruitment.
Charlie Winter.
Today, jihadism is at once more globalised and closer to
home than ever before. In seeking to explore how Islamic
State has been able to attract tens of thousands of
fighters from as many as 86 states across the world, the
media limelight has shone brightly on stories like that
of Australian Jake Bilardi, but nuanced understanding of
recruitment is routinely sacrificed.
The author, Charlie Winter, is a Senior Research Associate
at Georgia State University’s Transcultural Conflict
and Violence Initiative, where his research focuses on
Early in his administration, President Barack Obama
announced the ‘Asia rebalance’, a US reorientation that
became official policy in January 2012. This so-called
‘pivot’ explicitly recognises the need for America to
re-embrace partner nations in Asia, leveraging their
significant and growing capabilities to build a network
of states that nurtures, strengthens and sustains a rulesbased order that’s capable of effectively addressing
regional challenges.
The fundamental question is whether the US will
continue with its current ASEAN-centric policy as part of
a broader program of Asian engagement.
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016
EVENTS
Modernising the ANZUS Alliance:
Opportunities and challenges
ASPI’s International Conference - Modernising the
ANZUS Alliance: Opportunities and challenges will be
held at Hyatt Hotel in Canberra on 30 November to 2
December 2016.
A read of the 2016 Defence White Paper makes it clear
that the alliance is going through a step change and
evolving into something bigger and (even) better than
what we have now, with fresh challenges emerging as
the Asia-Pacific’s strategic outlook becomes more risky.
New opportunities for defence cooperation are
emerging around 5th generation air force capabilities;
cyber-security; space; Anti-Submarine Warfare; and the
‘enhanced’ US presence in Australia’s north. Is the ANZUS
alliance up to the task of tackling these new challenges
and opportunities? This conference will bring together
experienced practitioners in the Australia-United States
relationship to explore what can be done to make
ANZUS a more effective vehicle for defence and national
security cooperation.
Conference participants will be invited to contribute
to the interactive debate running throughout the
conference with invited speakers including: The Hon
John Howard OM AC, The Hon Julie Bishop MP, HE Mr
John Berry, Air Marshal Leo Davies AO CSC, Admiral
Harry Harris, Lieutenant General Angus Campbell and
The Hon Kim Beazley AC
Recent Events
On the 17 May the ASPI International Cyber Policy Centre
hosted a panel discussion on Australian perspectives on
encryption to discuss views on how government, society
and business can balance encryption’s positive and
negative effects. Thomas Daeman, Director Corporate,
External and Legal Affairs of Microsoft Australia/NZ,
along with Robert Morrish, CEO of Australian tech startup Haventec, and Peter Whowell, Manager of Counter
Terrorism Engagement and Operations Support at the
AFP provided a diverse discussion on the benefits and
difficulties presented by encryption in today’s context.
The need for agile legislative frameworks that can keep
up with the rapid development of modern technology
was identified by the panel as a key challenge for the
coming year.
Tobias Feakin hosting the Australian perspectives on Encryption panel
On 19 May, ASPI and SAAB hosted The Cost of Defence:
The 2016 Defence Budget Brief to launch the annual
publication by Mark Thomson, Senior Analyst at ASPI.
Mark Thomson discussed the trajectory of growth in
defence spending from the early 2000s, touching on the
2000, 2003, 2009 and 2013 Defence White Papers. He
highlighted some of the lessons learnt over this period,
and examined the reality of achieving the defence
spending target of 2% of GDP. Mark also took an in-depth
look at the 2016 Defence White Paper, Defence Industry
Policy Statement and the Integrated Investment Plan.
On 25 May the ASPI Counter Terrorism Policy Centre
launched the Special Report An integrated approach
to Islamic State recruitment by Charlie Winter.
Alastair MacGibbon, Children’s e-Safety Commissioner,
Samantha Yorke, Public Policy and Government
Relations – Google and Jacinta Carroll, Head of ASPI’s
Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre joined the panel
discussion to address ISIS recruitment and tactics, how
technology companies such as Google are countering
the threat of ISIS recruitment and how Australia is
dealing with ISIS recruitment and radicalisation.
On 2 June ASPI and the Brenthurst foundation launched
the 2015 Aus-Africa Dialogue Report. HE Mr Isaiya
Kabira, Kenyan High Commissioner to Australia, Matthew
Neuhaus, Assistant Secretary Africa Branch - DFAT,
Thomas Nziratimana, Co-founder and General Manager
- TransAfrika Resources (DR Congo) and Lisa Sharland,
Senior Analyst at ASPI joined a panel to discuss some of
the reflections and recommendations contained in the
report for strengthening engagement between Australia
and Africa.
If you missed out on any of these events you can watch
them on the ASPI YouTube channel:
https://www.youtube.com/user/ASPICanberra
ASPI Tactics - Autumn 2016