Techno-economic analysis of sustainable and smart energy

Transcription

Techno-economic analysis of sustainable and smart energy systems in
Germany
Subhash Kumar,
Maximilian Loosen, Reinhard Madlener
Institute for Future Energy Consumer and Behavior (FCN)
School of Business and Economics / E.ON Energy Research Center
RWTH Aachen University, Mathieustr. 10, 52074 Aachen, Germany
The Swedish Association for Energy Economics (SAEE)
Conference, Lulea , August 23-24, 2016
Techno-economic analysis of sustainable and smart energy systems in Germany |
Subhash Kumar, Maximillian Loosen, Reinhard Madlener |
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
The Energiewende
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Introduction
 Reliable and economically viable energy supply system
 Nuclear phase-out by 2022
 80–95% reduction of CO2 emissions compared to 1990
 50% reduction of primary energy supply by 2050 compared to 2008
 > 80% of renewable power generation by 2050
 Improvement of energy productivity by 2.1% per year
A sustainable, economically viable and environmentally
friendly energy system is a necessity!
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Electricity generation in Germany
■ Total electricity generation = 558.6 TWh, Renewables =198.2 TWh
■ Renewables made up around 35% of public net power supply
Electricity Production 2015
Hydro
10%
Nuclear
16%
Renewable
35%
Brown
coal
25%
Gas
5%
Hard coal
19%
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Biomass
28%
Solar
19%
Renewables 2015
Wind
43%
Methodology: EnergyPlan Software
 The EnergyPLAN model is a deterministic input/output computer model
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designed for energy systems analysis.
It is a deterministic model which optimizes the operation of a given
energy system on the basis of inputs and outputs defined by the user.
The main purpose of the model is to assist the design of national or
regional energy planning strategies on the basis of technical and
economic analyses of the consequences of implementing different
energy systems and investments.
The model encompasses the whole national or regional energy system
including heat and electricity supplies as well as the transport and
industrial sectors.
General inputs are demands, renewable energy sources, energy station
capacities, costs and a number of optional different regulation strategies
emphasising import/export and excess electricity production.
Outputs are energy balances and resulting annual productions, fuel
consumption, import/export of electricity, and total costs including income
from the exchange of electricity.
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Methodology: EnergyPlan Software
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EnergyPlan Software
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Intermittency in wind and solar power output
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Energy system
Traditional energy systems
• Separation of energy sectors
• Supply side flexibility
• Centralized approach
Future, smart energy systems
 Interconnecting energy sectors
 Demand side flexibility
 Energy Storages
 Decentralized approach
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Scenario development
• 3 scenarios
 Reference
 Alternative A
 Alternative B
• Each scenario consists of 5 simulations on an hour-by-hour basis
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2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
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Main general assumptions
• Electricity, heating and transport demand is based on government studies
• Electricity & heating demand, solar radiation, hydro & wind intensity and EV
charging cycles are accounted for on an hour-by hour basis
• Fuel and energy system costs are constant (using 2010 price levels)
• Component efficiencies stay constant (except average PP efficiencies)
• Maximum electricity import/export is capped at 20TWh per year
• Grid stabilization share of 10 percent (except in alternative B)
• CO2 certificate price rises in all scenarios to 76€/MT CO2 in 2050
• Onshore/Offshore wind <-> solar ratio is based on Fraunhofer study
• Nuclear phase-out is implemented in all scenarios
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Electricity consumption
Electricity consumption in TWh per year
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Reference and alternative A scenario
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Alternative B scenario
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Reference scenario
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Reference scenario...
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Reference scenario...
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Alternative A scenario
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Alternative A scenario....
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Alternative A scenario...
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Alternative B scenario
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Alternative B scenario...
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Alternative B scenario...
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Conclusions
• All energy sectors need to change in order to achieve Energiewende goals
• Electricity sector will gain in importance
• Consistent buildout of wind and solar energy has to occur
 Increase and stabilization of CO2 certificate prices
• Energy sector with biggest saving potential: heating sector
• Transition appliances from fossil to biomass use
• EnergyPlan error report
 The Energiewende goals, e.g. the decarbonisation of the German energy
system is technically and economically possible and also worthwhile, if this
transition is supported by political and public willingness
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Thank you so much for your kind attention!
Any questions ?
Contact
Institute for Future Energy Consumer Needs and
Behavior (FCN)
E.ON Energy Research Center
Mathieustraße 10, 52074 Aachen
Germany
SAEE 2016, Lulea | 24.08.2016
Subhash Kumar
T +49 241 80 49840
F +49 241 80 49829
[email protected]
http://www.eonerc.rwth-aachen.de

Techno-economic analysis of sustainable and smart energy

Transcription

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