Accelerating 3G adoption in Vietnam

Transcription

Accelerating 3G
adoption in
Vietnam
November 2010
1
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Content
Evaluating 1 year of 3G in Vietnam
Accelerating 3G Adoption in Vietnam
• Expand 3G device availability and affordability
• Mobile internet, video and applications
• Affordable and inventive data pricing
• Marketing a 3G Lifestyle
2
Evaluating 1 year of 3G in Vietnam
3
6 months after launch, half of mobile users were aware of 3G . And, only 3%
of mobile users subscribed to 3G service.
3G awareness
Base: Current users (n=3,000)
3G Usage Total
Perceived 3G providers
Base: Those who are aware of 3G (n=1,591)
MobiFone
No
52%
Yes
48%
93
92
Viettel
Vinaphone
88
Source:
Q73. Are you aware of 3G service for mobile phone?
Q75. Which mobile service provider has provided 3G service?
Mobile Insights 2010
4
Mobile TV, video call, mobile internet and web surfing were the most wellknown 3G services among mobile phone users.
Perceived Types of 3G services
MobiFone
MobiFone users
users
(n=466)
(n=466)
Vinaphone
Vinaphone users
users
(n=271)
(n=271)
Viettel
Viettel users
users
(n=822)
(n=822)
Mobile TV
73
77
75
Video call
72
76
74
Mobile internet
68
57
Web surfing
35
46
Online music
43
24
35
Game online for mobile phone
63
27
20
28
28
Pushmail
17
13
Applications for mobile phones
19
15
12
16
10
Picture and video clip share via
website/sms/email
Mobile broadband
16
12
8
15
7
5
Base: Khách hàng có nhận biết về 3G
Q74. Please let me know what service do you know of 3G?
Mobile Insights 2010
One year after launch, one in ten Vietnam subscriptions are 3G. This
achievement is quite typical compared to other markets.
3G penetration
Launched 2009
Launched 2005
Launched 2002
126%
114%
Launched 2006
99%
84%
72%
22%
es
ia
Vi
et
na
m
11%
In
do
n
al
ay
sia
M
U
SA
14%
Mobile penetration
3G Penetration
Source: Q3’2010 Wireless Intelligence
6
Current main data usage is on mobile Internet, simple downloads and
music
Mobile applications used in the last 30 days
All Subscribers (n=70128, 3000)
Mobile internet
Ringtone downloads
16%
5%
Wallpaper/Screensaver downloads
4%
Streaming audio
4%
Full-track music downloads
3%
Picture messaging/MMS
2%
Text alerts
2%
Instant messaging
2%
Content uploads
1%
Game downloads
1%
Mobile video
27%
5%
11%
8%
7%
37%
19%
16%
14%
0%
Software downloads
0%
Picture downloads
0%
Location-based services
0%
Video messaging
0%
Mobile commerce
0%
Online games
0%
VoIP
0%
Vietnam
9%
1%
Email
USA
12%
25%
18%
15%
14%
10%
8%
6%
7
3%
Mobile Internet users in Vietnam, as with other data services, skew strongly
to the under 35s, postpaid and high ARPU. Still a very “early adopter” profile.
Profile of Mobile Internet users
28%
25%
34%
30%
15-24 years
6%
25-34 years
35-44 years
17%
4%
10%
45-54 years
9%
6%
2% 1%
SA
Vi
et
36%
Female
U
Male
na
m
Vi
et
na
m
SA
U
28%
19%
14%
27%
Average
5%
11%
am
Vi
et
na
m
Prepaid users
U
Postpaid users
SA
Vi
et
n
U
SA
5%
High spender
(US$=$61+,
Vietnam=$10+)
8
Expand 3G device availability and
affordability
9
Smartphones now make up 1 in 4 mobile phones in the US, growing
from 18% to 25% in 1 year.
USA Data
10
Source: Nielsen Mobile Insights, Q2 ‘09 – Q2‘10
Media phones are also a growing phenomena (e.g. growing
faster than smartphones in Mexico)
Average Price – México (USD)
Mexico Data
325
312
339
304
255
332
250
211
226
159
342
152
141
197
163
214
202
145
186
143
106
198
124
197
110
211
112
251
276
222
113
153
220
117
235
115
254
126
238
129
229
134
155
207
122
300
276
212
190
157
206
155
191
268
233
243
168
179
117
125
179
214
122
202
205
125
128
209
125
201
126
184
125
192
143
Volume Market Share – New Acquirers
0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.1 3.0 3.3 4.0 4.9
6.6 6.9 6.5 8.0 9.1 11.1
3.5 4.2 3.2 3.3 4.0 4.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 2.9 2.3
12.9 12.212.3 13.2
2.8 2.7 3.4
3.1 2.6 3.9 4.3 5.0
5.9 7.2 7.7 6.6 10.1
95.9 94.8 95.895.7 95.0 93.8 95.494.7 94.694.495.194.7 93.9 93.2 91.6
APR
'08
MAY
'08
JUN
'08
JUL
'08
AUG
'08
SEP
'08
OCT
'08
NOV
'08
DEC
'08
JAN
'09
Feature Phone
FEB
'09
MAR
'09
APR
'09
MAY
'09
JUN
'09
90.390.5 89.6 87.7 85.9
JUL
'09
Sm artphone
AUG
'09
SEP
'09
OCT
'09
NOV
'09
T2
83.0 80.080.1 81.1
DEC
'09
JAN
'10
FEB
'10
MAR
'10
76.7
APR
'10
11
Marketers are realizing that devices’ form
and features drive data adoption and
consumption, more than consumer factors
12
Data applications usage amongst Smartphone users far outstrip feature
phones. 80% use the mobile Internet and e-mail.
USA Data
Data Applications Used in the Past 30 Days
Acquired Device in the Past 6 Months (n=12,650)
Text messaging/SMS
69%
Email
17%
Mobile internet
80%
22%
Application (App) downloads
69%
11%
Picture messaging/MMS
Location-based Services
40%
8%
Content uploads
Pre-installed games
Game downloads
Streaming audio
37%
4%
30%
12%
5%
5%
5%
No mobile activities
31%
19%
Full-track music downloads
VoIP
36%
11%
Mobile commerce
Online games
39%
7%
Wallpaper/Screensaver downloads
Video messaging
39%
14%
Ringtone downloads
Mobile video
40%
16%
Instant messaging
54%
40%
18%
Picture downloads
58%
42%
10%
Text alerts
88%
80%
30%
21%
20%
9%
3%
6%
1%
3%
Questions used: Q407
Smartphone
20%
Feature phone
14%
13
24%
Source: Nielsen Mobile Insights, US,
Q2 2010
Some Smartphone strategies across SEA
• Singapore
– Singtel and Starhub have reported sharp increases in data traffic in 2009 and 2010.
– In 1Q10, all of SingTel's promotions were for smartphones.
– 80% of the models that StarHub and M1 stocks for their online customers are
Smartphones. Most (inc. iPhone) are free with data plans.
• Indonesia
– Telkomsel reported 3x more data in 2009 than 2008. XL Axiata reported 2x growth.
– Blackberrys have gained a huge following, especially amongst youths and students.
Driven by social networking, Blackberry Messenger and affordable data rates
(starting from $11 / month).
– Network operators are also considering 3G push with generic Chinese brands
(20%+ market share), especially as Android makes $200 Smartphones possible.
14
A focus on Smartphone and media phones make sense even in prepaid heavy markets
Europe Data
Share of prepaid in EFIGS (2008 – 2010)
87
62
84
58
56
34
UK
Italy
41
30
France
Prepaid % - Q1 2008
62
55
Germany
Spain
Prepaid % - Q1 2010
15
There is a higher propensity for pre-paid users to use Smartphones in
Italy and Spain
Europe Data
Prepaid Amongst Smartphone Users
INDEX:
0.27
0.27
0.18
0.16
0.17
84%
62%
58%
55%
Pre-paid penetration
out of all Smartphone
users
30%
Pre-paid penetration
out of all mobile users
23%
17%
10%
Italy
Spain
Germany
9%
5%
UK
France
Source: Wireless Intelligence & Nielsen Mobile Insights Q1 2010
Base of Smartphone users: Italy (n=1,536, Spain (n=2,530), Germany (n=713), UK (n=1,608), France (n=1,865)
16
In line with this, Spain and Italy’s pre-paid users exhibit the most attractive
consumption patterns.
Europe Data
Last 30 Day Mobile Internet usage, Q1 2010
% who used
mobile Internet
in last 30 Days
Prepaid
users
Post-paid
users
Index Prepaid to
Post-paid
Pre & post-paid ARPU
Operator
Postpaid ARPU
/ Prepaid
ARPU: 2008
Postpaid ARPU
/ Prepaid
ARPU: 2010
Italy
13%
20%
0.65
Vodafone Italy
3.6
2.8
Spain
9%
17%
0.53
Telefonica
Spain
2.8
2.8
UK
13%
36%
0.36
Vodafone UK
4.8
5.5
France
4%
26%
0.15
Orange France
3.1
3.3
Germany
7%
18%
0.39
T-Mobile
Germany
7.8
7.8
17
Source: Nielsen Mobile Insights, Q1 2010
Smartphones and Media Phones must be a key
part of 3G strategy.
Branded Smartphones are a safe option, but
Android makes generic / operator-branded phones
worth investigating.
18
Mobile Internet, Video and Apps
19
The mobile applications and internet categories grow while the carrierbilled game and audio businesses collapse
USA Data
Mobile Application Market
Mobile Audio Market
Q1 2008–Q1 2010
Q1 2008–Q1 2010
$237
$226
45
$214
$240
$209
$172
36
$165
$143
27
18
$180
$120
33
34
32
31
30
30
28
29
27
9
0
$60
$0
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Number of audio buyers
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
$430
60
$335
48
$360
$281
$230
36
$270
$169
24
12
22
26
29
18
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
$0
Q1
2009
$152
$150
$119
$103
18
$100
$50
15
14
13
13
14
13
13
10
$0
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Number of game downloaders
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Total game revenue
Note: Subscriber: an individual who
paid for the service in the given period.
Number of Mobile Internet Unique Subscribers (M)
$156
Total Revenue (M)
Number of Game Downloaders (M)
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Total application revenue
300
$200
$131
Q2
2008
Q2
2009
Q1 2008–Q1 2010
$158
$180
$90
Mobile Internet Market Overview
22
Q1
2008
47
Q1 2008–Q1 2010
$185
17
44
Total audio revenue
$250
19
41
Mobile Game Market
$164
14
39
35
0
Q1
2010
30
$180
$540
$450
$383
Number of application downloaders
26
$508
$460
Total Revenue (M)
$300
$270
$501
72
$4,505
$5,000
$4,500
250
$3,754
$4,000
$3,283
200
$3,500
$2,930
$3,000
$2,262
150
$1,692
$2,415
$2,500
$1,806
$2,000
100
50
$1,500
95
102
108
116
124
130
137
136
137
$1,000
$500
0
$0
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2008
Number of unique m obile internet subscribers
Note: Includes prepaid, postpaid, and
all carriers. Does not include off-bill.
$4,516
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
20
Total m obile internet revenue
Source: Mobile Media Measurement bill
panel and survey analysis. Extrapolation
from CTIA and Nielsen Mobile universe
estimates
Total Revenue (M)
$268
54
Number of Application Downloaders (M)
$360
63
Total Revenue (M)
Number of Audio Downloaders (M)
72
Mobile Video Penetration is slowly be steadily increasing
USA Data
US Mobile Video Viewers
All Mobile Subscribers (Q1 2010 284,529,844; Q1 2010 Mobile Insights n=63,982)
(In Millions)
10.0%
20
8.8%
8.0%
7.3%
15
6.5%
6.6%
5.8%
6.0%
4.9%
10
Mobile Video Viewers
20.2
4.6%
15.3
15.7
17.6
4.0%
13.4
5
10.3
11.2
2.0%
Mobile Video Viewer
Penetration (of all
Mobile Subscribers)
0.0%
0
Q3 2008
Q4 2008
Q1 2009
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
Q4 2009
Q1 2010
21
Source: Q3 2008-Q1 2010 Mobile
Insights & Nielsen Mobile analysis.
Mobile Video viewership by application is exploding while the
subscription model languishes
USA Data
How Viewers Accessed Mobile Video
Mobile Video Viewers (n=4,819)
68%
65%
59%
48%
47%
40%
39%
36%
Q1 2010
Q1 2009
Subscription
“I paid a
subscription fee
to access Mobile
TV or video
clips”
Mobile internet
“I accessed and viewed
Mobile TV or video clips
directly from the internet on
my cell phone”*
Download clips
Applications
“I downloaded and
stored video clips from
a computer or from
other sources onto my
cell phone”*
“I viewed video clips
using an application
(for example:
MyWaves, VSnax)”*
22
*Response specifies you watched
without paying a Mobile TV or Video
subscription fee.
Question used: M3811
Source: Nielsen Mobile Video Survey,
US, Q1 2010 & Q1 2009
Popular websites cross over from fixed to mobile
•
Local content is key for driving mobile Internet traffic
Top mobile Internet sites, China
•www.sina.com.cn
•www.baidu.com
•www.google.cn
•www.ko.cn
•news.sohu.com
•www.xiaonei.com
•www.3g.cn
•www.paojiao.com
•www.188bet.com
•www.feiku.com
Top mobile Internet sites, Germany
•www.google.de
•www.studivz.net
•www.wer-kennt-wen.de
•www.jappy.de
•www.schuelervz.net
•m.web.de
•mobil.spiegel.de
•m.gmx.de
•www.lokalisten.de
•wap.sport1.de
23
Even in well regulated USA, operator stores have a big role to play in
marketing apps. This trust angle will be even more critical in Vietnam.
App Store Most Often Used by Device Type and Operator
Verizon
1%
1%
14%
51%
10% 2%
20%
USA Data
Verizon App Store
T-Mobile
13%
Sprint
17%
5%
1%
AT&T 4%
19%
18%
1% 12% 2%
T-Mobile App Store
46%
2%
1%
60%
47%
Apple App Store
Blackberry App World Store
Apple App Store
1% 13%
Sprint App Store
3%
3%
8% 1%
24%
AT&T App Store
Palm Application Store
Android Market Store
Windows Marketplace Store
AT&Ts Application Store
Sprints Application Store
T-Mobiles Application Store
Verizons Application Store
My cell phone provider’s Application Store
Handango website
Other
Cydia Apps Market
Verizon V Cast Apps
24
Base: AT&T (n=1,709), Sprint (n=529), T-Mobile (n=422), Verizon (n=1,238)
Questions used: CQ2C1: Which of the following
App Stores do you use most often?
Source: August 2010 Nielsen App
Playbook
In summary: Create an open and dynamic marketplace for applications
•
Some learnings on App Stores / portals
– pricing
– allowing free apps into the store and distributing them for free.
– allowing developers to charge small amounts for an app (tasters)
– games
– almost every application in the list of top paid and free apps on the Apple App Store
is a game.
– showcase applications development as “a chance to make good money”
– in the early days this could mean investing money
– create buzz and community
– open business model, smooth approval process
– provide best practice shopping experience
– allow bookmarking
– recommendation / rating of apps
– mark apps already bought by a subscriber
25
Affordable and Inventive Data Pricing
26
Allow “data snacking”, especially for pre-paid users, and free trials
RM15 (US$4.5)/ week
RM5 (US$1.3)/ day
27
Allow “data snacking”, especially for pre-paid users, and free
trials…cont’d
T-Mobile UK (Pre-paid)
• T-Mobile is UK’s most successful network for pre-paid data usage.
• They offer new subscribers 30 days of free internet
• They also offer cheap Mobile Internet boosters
Booster
Cost
5 day Internet on your phone
£2.50
1 month Internet on your
phone
£5.00
6 month Internet on your
phone
£20.00
28
Avoid AYCE pricing. Small amount of users are consuming the bulk of data
traffic for US carriers; between 2009 and 2010 their consumption doubled.
29
Source: Nielsen Customer Value Metrics Q1‘09 – Q1‘10
As traffic picks up look into Dynamic Data Pricing
Variable discounts depending on location and traffic. Alerts on available
discounts sent to users’ phones in the form of a “ticker”
Have a good selection of free applications to promote adoption and create
an apps culture.
USA Data
Mix of Free versus Paid Downloads by Operating System
Past 30 Day App Downloaders
21%
23%
17%
17%
25%
37%
62%
69%
74%
17%
Feature Phone
7%
8%
Smartphone
BlackBerry
13%
8%
MS Windows Mobile
Downloaded a Paid App Only in the Past 30 Days
80%
67%
50%
Apple iPhone OS
3%
Android OS
Downloaded a Free App Only in the Past 30 Days
Downloaded Both a Paid and a Free App in the Past 30 Days
Wave 2 Base: Feature Phone (n=1,965), Smartphone (n=2,300), BlackBerry (n=623), Microsoft Windows Mobile (n=292),
Apple iPhone OS (n=959), Android OS (n=338)
*Caution: Small base size
Questions used: CQ3 How many
downloads, free or paid for, have you done in
the past 30 days?
31
Source: August 2010 Nielsen App
Playbook
Marketing a 3G Lifestyle
32
Targeting youths - O2 UK (& Germany)
• 149 performances by 60 acts including some
of the world’s top music artists have played
The O2 Arena.
• Concerts in 2010 – More than 30 concerts
already planned for next year including Bon
Jovi, Lady Gaga, Michael Buble, Alicia Keys,
Rod Stewart etc.
– O2 customers get priority for concert tickets
• O2 has also supported events such as the
'NME Rock 'n' Roll Riot Tour', The O2
Wireless Festivals, Party in the Parks and
opera events across the UK and Germany.
• O2 Bubble – British Music Experience Interactive audio visual spaces that explore
great British music moments throughout
history
– Record yourself singing, mixing, playing guitar,
keyboard or drums
– Education programs for youths aged 14 - 19
33
Target youths – Celcom Xpax
• Celcom Xpax, a 3G prepaid service was introduced in
2005 to spur the usage of 3G, especially due to the
fact that 80% of Celcom's business comes from
prepaid segment
• Contests, free concerts tickets, VIP passes for
events, parties, international music fests
• Monthly bonus, bonus during birthdays
• Download the best and latest games, music and
graphics exclusively from Channel X! With more than
10,000 FREE downloads
• Blackberry prepaid: Unlimited BBM at only 50 cents a
day
• Enjoy FREE Windows Live Mobile
• Unlimited Facebook SMS for RM 1 a week
34
Example of Consumer Segmentation Based on Mobile Data Usage
(USA)
Young
Utilitarians
Young adults belonging to middle income households, High
messaging and moderate browsing usage.
28.0%
-
Middle Class
Rationalists
Relatively older in age, belonging to middle income
households, primarily voice and text users
19.1%
-
Retired Voice
Callers
Retired from work, belonging to middle to lower income
households, primarily voice users
15.8%
7.1%
Engaged
Teenagers
Teenagers from middle class households, heavily into
messaging and moderate browsing and downloading usage
14.7% 20.1%
Young Smartphone
Addicts
Young working adults from middle income households,
heavy browsing and downloading activities
6.9%
100%
Senior Basic
Followers
Older in age, not regularly employed, belonging to lower
income households, primarily voice and messaging users
6.3%
-
Ambitious
Transients
Young adults from lower income HHs, in between education
and work. Heavy messaging & moderate browsing.
6.1%
21.9%
Affluent Smartphone
Adopters
Older and working, from High income households. High
browsing and moderate downloading activities
3.2%
100%
35
Example of Consumer Segmentation Based on Mobile Data Usage
(USA) … cont’d
TALKING
MESSAGING
Retired Voice Callers
Senior Basic Followers
BROWSING
Middle Class Rationalists
Ambitious Transients
Engaged Teenagers
Young Utilitarians
DOWNLOADING
Affluent Smartphone
Young Smartphone
Adopters
Addicts
36
Page 36
By understanding each segment’s…
Current
Mobile
Data Usage
Current
Digital
Lifestyle
Lifestage
and
Life
Priorities
Willingness
to Pay and
Trade-Offs
Mobile
Data and
Device
Aspirations
… creating the perfect 3G package will be easy.
37
Thank You

Accelerating 3G adoption in Vietnam

Transcription

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