Damage assessment associated with land subsidence in the San
Transcription
Damage assessment associated with land subsidence in the San
Nat Hazards DOI 10.1007/s11069-012-0269-3 ORIGINAL PAPER Damage assessment associated with land subsidence in the San Luis Potosi-Soledad de Graciano Sanchez metropolitan area, Mexico, elements for risk management P. Julio-Miranda • A. J. Ortı́z-Rodrı́guez • A. G. Palacio-Aponte R. López-Doncel • R. Barboza-Gudiño • Received: 21 October 2011 / Accepted: 22 June 2012 Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012 Abstract In the present study, damages associated with land subsidence phenomena in residential structures within the San Luis Potosi-Soledad de Graciano Sánchez Metropolitan Area (San Luis Potosı́ state, Mexico) were estimated based on a methodology that has been adapted to the Mexican context. As Blong’s (Nat Hazards 30:1–23, 2003) methodology does not include the Central Damage Values to land subsidence, these were calculated based on observations made in 282 damaged houses. According to the Central Damage Values, 27 % of the affected property is low damage, 33 % moderate, 21 % high, 15 % severe and 4 % have been demolished. The affected properties correspond to 39,537 m2 of construction and 40,782 m2 of surface. The Replacement Ratio is estimated at 1,307 average homes. The damage in equivalent homes is 282, and monetary cost is $2,516,944 USD ($30,203,329 MXN). The collected data, comprised into a GIS, offer the possibility to spatial and temporal monitoring of the damage provoked by land subsidence in homes. Keywords Land subsidence Damage estimation Central Damage Values Risk management 1 Introduction The urban growth of several cities in Mexico in recent decades has triggered and exacerbated the phenomenon of land subsidence, mainly due to increased water extraction and the subsequent lowering of the piezometric aquifer levels in combination with specific geological and geomorphological contexts. Land subsidence occurs with varying degrees P. Julio-Miranda (&) A. J. Ortı́z-Rodrı́guez A. G. Palacio-Aponte Coordinación de Ciencias Sociales y Humanidades, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosı́, México, Av. Industrias 101-A, Frac. Talleres, CP. 78494, San Luis Potosı́, S.L.P., Mexico e-mail: [email protected] R. López-Doncel R. Barboza-Gudiño Instituto de Geologı́a, Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosı́, México, Av. Manuel Nava 5, Zona Universitaria, C.P. 78240, San Luis Potosı́, S.L.P., Mexico 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 1 Location of cities where damage due to land subsidence has been reported. Aguascalientes (1), Mexico City (2), Celaya (3), Morelia (4), Queretaro (5) and Metropolitan Area of San Luis Potosı́-Soledad de Graciano Sanchez (6) located in the SW portion of the state (see box) of intensity causing severe damage to property, infrastructure and urban facilities. In Mexico City and its metropolitan area, with a population of twenty million, these processes have been documented since the late eighteenth century (Marsal and Hiriarte 1952). Smaller cities like Celaya, Querétaro (Aguirre et al. 2000), Morelia (Garduño et al. 2001), Aguascalientes (Esquivel et al. 2007) and the San Luis Potosi-Soledad de Graciano Sánchez Metropolitan Area (SLP-SGS-MA) have also suffered considerable damage from these phenomena over the past decades (Fig. 1). In the SLP-SGS-MA, located in north-central Mexico, the phenomenon of land subsidence became visible during the early 1990s in structural damages like broken pavements and drainage pipes, cracked walls, floors and ceilings in buildings, some of them considered national heritage (López et al. 2006). In recent years, the problem has become the subject of specialized studies: Trueba (2004) states that fracturing is caused by an increase of effective pressure on the soil mass due to the widespread lowering of groundwater levels as a result of overexploitation of the aquifer. This damage to infrastructure, public and private buildings, industrial facilities, historical monuments, churches and residential structures will add up to a projected sum of 33.5 million USD in damage costs in the year 2038. Arzate et al. (2008) on the other hand indicate that the land subsidence in the SLPSGS-MA results from the confluence of various factors: the region’s tectonic evolution, the presence of irregular bedrock, the mechanical properties of alluvial fill and the existence of paleochannels. Additionally, increased water extraction leads to decreasing groundwater levels in the aquifer, causing differential compaction degrees of sediments, which ends in 123 Nat Hazards land subsidence and fracturing. The authors include a map of all 22 fractures identified in the study area, but they do not present data on the depth of the fractures in addition to their location and length. It is worth mentioning that these subsoil fractures are not visible on the surface. Macroscopically identifiable are only cracks within buildings, sidewalks and pavements. This map has been a fundamental input for the development of the work reported in this paper. Pacheco et al. (2010) indicate that land subsidence occurs along two fracture systems. The first system runs north–south and is related to the geological structure of the region, its soil compaction, irregular bedrock topography and particularly to the overexploitation of its aquifer. The second system has a general east–west orientation and the fractures here are produced by the generation of gaps and their ultimate collapse or the existence of paleochannels. The authors note that there is a correlation between areas of lowest groundwater levels and areas with high fracture concentrations (Fig. 2). These studies have allowed a better understanding of the factors affecting the phenomenon and anthropogenic triggers involved in the development of land subsidence in the SLP-SGS-MA; however, there are still issues to be explored. The damage caused by land subsidence in the study area was first recognized in residential structures, and although it is true that infrastructure and urban facilities as well as public buildings and historical sites are affected, homes are primarily the type of property most affected but also the sector that receives the least attention by administrative authorities responsible for risk management. Though damage by land subsidence in the SLP-SGS-MA has been reported in previous work (Trueba 2004; López et al. 2006), a systematic record has not been conducted to identify the affected houses, in order to establish the degree of damage and to calculate damage amounts. Moreover, the estimated damage to property from natural hazards such as earthquakes, hurricanes and tornadoes has received more attention from specialists (Blong 2003) due to their destructive potential, whereas the estimate of damage caused by land subsidence is infrequent. In addition to damage estimates, another objective is to analyse its spatial dimension considering the phenomenon’s future development and its relationship to urban and industrial growth within the study area. Damage to residential structures caused by land subsidence in the SLP-SGS-MA is described and its costs estimated by applying the methodology proposed by Blong (2003), which we adapted to the available data from the study area. 2 The geographical setting of SLP-SGS-MA The SLP-SGS-MA is located in north-central Mexico in a predominantly flat area, consisting of alluvial and debris deposits from surrounding elevations. The Sierra San Miguelito, limiting the study area to the south and west, is composed of a sequence of lava and rhyolitic ignimbrites that have strong abrupt morphology slopes, in contrast to the morphology of convex and less steep hillsides that constitute the piedmont. The Sierra de Álvarez, located to the east, consists predominantly of marine sedimentary rocks from the Cretaceous period and some volcanic sequences from the Tertiary. Tectonic and geomorphological evolution of the study area is relevant, due to its influence in the genesis of the land subsidence process. Geologically, it is located in the NW portion of the Villa de Reyes Graben (VRG), whose origin is associated with cortical extension from the Early Tertiary period, during which it produced a system of normal faults oriented NW–SE and formed a series of trenches, pits and semi-horst (Labarthe and Tristán 1978). The Sierra San Miguelito to the west and Rio Santa Maria to the SE are felsic volcanic complexes. 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 2 Groundwater levels reported to 1998 and location of fracturing in SLP-SGS-MA. Modified by Pacheco et al. (2010) The central part of the graben is filled with reworked volcanic and alluvial sediments overlying a marine origin basement (Tristán 1986). The SLP-SGS-MA has a semi-desert climate with summer rains. According to Mexico’s National Water Board (CONAGUA), the average temperature is 17.6 °C, with an extreme maximum of 37.9 °C, and extreme minimum of -8.5 °C, with an oscillating temperature of up to 16 °C. Rains occur during the summer months of June–September bringing the annual total precipitation to 367.4 mm. The SLP-SGS-MA is located on an endorheic basin 123 Nat Hazards belonging to hydrology region 37; it is crossed by a few intermittent streams whose channels have been artificially modified. The Santiago River runs southwest to northeast. Its river bed has been conditioned as a boulevard with uneven pavement and frequent ponding caused by water pipe ruptures in the south-central sector, presumably as a result of land subsidence. The Españita River runs through the south-central portion of the area. The source of water supply in the study area has changed notably; in 1960, 41 % corresponded to groundwater and 59 % to superficial water (wells, streams and marshes). In 2010, 92 % corresponded to groundwater and 8 % to surface water sources. These changes are closely related to population dynamics, the growth rate of the urban zone and the economic boost the area has experienced in recent decades (Peña 2006). Changes in the sources of water supply and the increased demand of water for the whole SGS-SLP-MA have caused the lowering of the aquifer’s level. According to Arzate et al. (2008), a welldefined depression cone is located in the west-central part of the basin and coincides with marked irregularities of the rock basement and with one of the zones affected by fracturing. 3 Methodology In order to estimate the damage to houses in the SLP-SGS-MA, Blong’s methodology (2003) that focuses on the estimation of damage to properties in different places, events and types of natural hazards was applied. This approach is based on the cost of construction of an average house in relation to the amount of damage it has suffered. The first part consists of determining the square footage of the construction site and its cost for an average home. In the following step, the Replacement Ratio (RR) is calculated by dividing the construction square footage of each damaged building by the construction square footage of the house median area, whose normalized value is 1. The next step relates to the estimated damage to each building, which is based on a standard scale corresponding to the Central Damage Value (Light 0.02, Moderate 0.1, Heavy 0.4, Severe 0.75 and Collapse 1.0) based on the documented damage in previous studies and caused by natural hazards. Each building, depending on the observed damage, is assigned a value according to the CDV which is then multiplied by RR to obtain the damage in terms of house equivalents. The application of this methodology required adjustments which will be described later. 3.1 Buildings exposed to land subsidence The occurrence of damage to homes in the SLP-SGS-MA instigated some affected home owners to contact geologists of the local university who started the systematic recording of land subsidence. Observations made over several years were summarized on a map (Arzate et al. 2008) that shows the location of twenty-two fractures identified until then (Fig. 3). During fieldwork, crew members walked along each fracture to identify properties with visible external damage. To determine the number, location and size of these properties, mosaics formed by satellite images from Google Earth (Fig. 4) were laid over the fracture map. Visible damage to residential structures was observed in fourteen of the twenty-two fractures. 3.2 Average house The methodology used is based on the estimated construction cost of a property in relation to the cost of an average home, which is determined according to the characteristics of each region or country, regardless of historical value or property utility. An advantage of this 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 3 Location of identified fractures in the municipality of San Luis Potosı́: Aeropuerto (1), Carlo Magno (2), Colegio Alemán (3), Condominios Gaviota (4), Damian Carmona (5), Pedregal (6), G. San Pedro (7), M Federico Silva (8), Lanzagorta (9), Los Gómez (10), Morales-MD (11), Muñoz (12), M. Mascara (13), M. Regional (14), Morales (15), Real de Minas (16), Sauzalito (19), Tangamanga (20), Valle Dorado (21) and Valle Dorado III (22) and in the municipality of Soledad de Graciano Sánchez: S. Antonio (17) and SJ. Buenavista (18), modified by Arzate et al. (2008) method is that one can compare damage levels based on average homes caused by different threats in diverse regions or countries. It should be pointed out that the SLP-SGS-MA administratively consists of two municipalities: San Luis Potosi, the state capital, and Soledad de Graciano Sánchez. This administrative division leads to differences in home values. For the study area and based on interviews with developers, appraisers and real estate promoters, it was established that the average home lot has an extension of 90 m2. The residential structures normally cover up to 60 m2. The value per square metre carrying the structure, as determined by the Land Registry Office, amounts to $ 158 USD (1,890 MXN) in the municipality of San Luis Potosi, whereas at Soledad de Graciano Sanchez it is only $ 137 USD (1,638 MXN). Unlike the methodology proposed by Blong (2003) that does not include the cost of land and, in order to make a closer estimate to the market value of the damaged property, the cost per square metre of land of the average home was included. The terrain value varies depending on the sector of the municipality where the property is located; therefore, an average value was determined for the different lot classifications, established by Land Registry Offices, which stated that 1 m2 of land at San Luis Potosi is worth $123 USD ($1481 MXN) and $62 USD ($740 MXN) at Soledad de Graciano Sánchez. Finally, the grand total value of any property within the two municipalities of the study area is obtained by summing up the value of the lot and the value of the structure erected on its surface (Table 1). 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 4 Overlapping of the fracturing map and Google Earth images (eye Alt 250 m, September 18th, planimetric accuracy 0.8 m RMSE) were used to identify buildings at risk of land subsidence. Subsequently, damaged buildings were identified and square metres of land and construction were estimated. This figure shows the central section of the Aeropuerto fracture 3.3 Central Damage Values To gather information from each of the properties with visible external damage, datasheets were designed to include the following information: location, use, number of floors, type of construction, building material, observed damage and type of construction in accordance with the provisions of the Land Office of the municipalities that comprise the metropolitan area. In some cases, it was possible to document the damage inside the property. Additionally, photographs of the buildings were taken to document the damage and form a photographic database. A key aspect of the methodology is the determination of the Central Damage Values (CDV). Blong (2003) presents these values for natural hazards such as tropical cyclones, tornadoes, hail, earthquakes and landslides, but not for land subsidence. Moreover, in Mexico, despite that land subsidence is manifested in several cities, there is no publication that has described the degree of damage. To establish the corresponding damage within Blong’s (2003) proposed classification (light, moderate, heavy, severe and collapse), observed damage to 282 buildings was taken into consideration. Table 2 shows the damage associated to five classes of CDV. It must be noted that in the last category, which accounts for a value of 1, collapse was changed to demolition, because there is no information on the collapse of houses due to this phenomenon. When damage to buildings became too serious, even threatening its occupants, the structures had to be demolished. According to the visible damage observed, a CDV was assigned to each building. 123 Nat Hazards Table 1 Average housing value for the municipalities of the SLP-SGS-MA SLP m 2 2 m USD SGS Total USD m2 USD Total USD Building 60 $158 $9,450 $137 $8,193 Land 90 $123 $11,109 $62 $5,547 Total $20,559 $13,740 Table 2 Damage description for Central Damage Values associated to land subsidence at SLP-SGS-MA Central Damage Values Damages 0.02 Light Hairline cracks in walls Fall of small-size plaster fragments 0.10 Moderate Thin and large cracks on walls Fall of medium-size plaster fragments 0.40 Heavy Open cracks on walls with separation \1 cm Deformation of doors or windows iron frames that prevent their optimum movement Sink or light deformation on floors 0.75 Severe Large open cracks on walls or roofs with separation [1 cm Deformation of doors and windows iron frames that prevent their movement Sink and heavy deformation on floors Separation of adjacent buildings Bulging or cracks on floors Partial sink of the building 1.00 Demolition Partial or total Land subsidence phenomena cause gradual damage to buildings; therefore, damage is accumulative and worsening. The damage starts out with short thin cracks, which later increase in size, depth, spacing and amount in walls, ceilings and floors. Door and window frames suffer deformations in varying degrees, losing their functionality. Separation from adjacent buildings gradually increases. Floors become deformed also, and the effects are even seen in streets and water pipes through recurrent leaks. An example of representative damage of each CVD classification is shown in Fig. 5. During fieldwork, residents and damaged property owners were consulted. Some families have been relocated and the buildings demolished or abandoned. Others have not received concrete answers from the authorities or from persons who sold the property. Several families, for not disposing of sufficient economic resources, possibility to move, are forced to inhabit damaged houses. They point out that the abandonment of damaged houses favours crime and adds to the deterioration of urban environments because the structures are used as landfills, which leads to the proliferation of harmful fauna. 3.4 Damage estimation and house equivalents Once damaged properties were identified, they were located in geo-referenced mosaics made with Google Earth images, and land surface and construction areas were measured. Image resolution allows for a *2 m2 error margin in measuring. Land surface and construction data were used to determine the Replacement Ratio (RR) in relation to the 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 5 Some of the damage observed in homes and its corresponding CDV is presented a light (thin and short cracks on walls); b moderate (thin and large cracks on walls); c heavy (large cracks on walls with separation \1 cm); d, e severe (large diagonal cracks on walls with separation [1 cm and deformation of window iron frames); f demolition due to damage severity average home. To estimate the damage, based on observations made during field work, we first assigned each property a corresponding CDV and then multiplied it by the RR to obtain the house equivalent number. To obtain the cost in US dollars, we multiplied the number of house equivalents by the average home value. 4 Results The approximate number of houses in the SLP-SG-MA is 220,245 of which 1,982 lie on risk zones, and 1,784 (0.8 % of the total) show visible damage. In five fracture zones, no 123 123 E–W E–W E–W E–W M Mascara Valle Dorado M Regional Morales-MD Total E–W Sauzalito N–S Carlo Magno N–S N–S Muñoz M. Federico Silva N–S S. Antonio N–S N–S Parque Morales N–S N–S SJ. Buenavista Damián Carmona N–S Aeropuerto Lanzagorta Orientation Fractures 1,784 78 64 97 93 113 28 253 158 98 177 30 198 44 353 Total Bldgs. 282 4 7 9 9 25 3 5 10 11 28 29 29 44 69 Damage Bldgs. 76 2 1 4 1 7 0 0 3 4 10 8 18 6 94 0 6 3 6 11 3 3 5 7 13 3 8 7 19 M L 12 Central Damage Table 3 Results of the obtained data for each fracture in SLP-SGS-MA 59 0 0 2 2 4 0 2 0 0 5 12 3 9 20 H Values 42 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 6 0 19 11 S 12 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 7 D 39,537 600 5,372 910 2,110 2,250 895 615 1,647 1,645 3,304 2,048 4,864 2,654 10,623 Floor Area m2 40,782 890 2,739 1,097 1,895 2,505 647 740 2,005 1,960 3,274 2,030 4,360 3,690 12,950 Land Area m2 1,307 21 147 28 98 52 44 18 48 62 121 56 158 89 365 RR 282 5 14 3 14 11 5 4 10 5 14 19 16 42 120 Damage House equivalents 2,516,944 44,953 143,792 31,364 14,536 107,887 45,818 43,780 98,892 45,136 138,466 143,610 164,642 289,471 1,204,597 Damage USD Nat Hazards Nat Hazards Fig. 6 Location of buildings according to their Central Damage Values in San Luis Potosı́ (light green area) and Soledad de Graciano Sánchez Metropolitan Area. Black dots indicate damaged buildings and black lines fractures damage to residential homes was observed (Condominios Gaviotas, Real de Minas, Valle Dorado III, Colegio Alemán and Pedregal) and in the SJ. Buenavista fracture, of the 44 damaged buildings, 11 are located near the fracture. Based on the CDV, 27 % of the affected properties have low damage, 33 % moderate, 21 % high, 15 % severe and 4 % have been demolished. 209 properties are located in the municipality of San Luis Potosi 123 Nat Hazards Fig. 7 Detail of damaged houses at the San José Buenavista fracture. 44 residential buildings show damages, according to the degree damage: 3 houses have been demolished (D), 19 have severe damage (S), 9 High (H), 7 Moderate (M) and 6 Light (L) and 73 in Soledad de Graciano Sanchez. The Replacement Ratio is estimated at 1,307 average homes. The damage in equivalent homes is 282, and monetary cost is $2,516,944 USD ($30,203,329 MXN). The fractures with the highest number of damaged houses are Aeropuerto, SJ. Buenavista, Morales, S. Antonio and Muñoz. For each of the fractures, detailed information, which is summarized in Table 3, was obtained. 123 Nat Hazards Maps based on the CDV (Fig. 6) were developed to analyse the spatial distribution of the damage. The houses that have been demolished are located in the Aeropuerto Central Sector fracture, SJ. Buenavista and Sauzalito fractures. 11 households with severe CDV are located in the Aeropuerto South and Central Sectors. At the SJ. Buenavista, there are 19 homes with severe CDV, 8 are located on the trace of fracture and the remaining in surrounding streets (Fig. 7). Households with high CDV show dispersion along the trace of several fractures: Aeropuerto and S. Antonio stand out with 20 and 12 damage buildings, respectively. Properties with moderate CDV show higher dispersion, but Aeropuerto, Muñoz and Sauzalito fractures show a considerable number of damaged houses. Finally, CDV properties with light CDV show dispersion; however, Morales, Aeropuerto and Muñoz fractures stand out. Of all properties with visible damage, 79 % are concentrated on six fractures. The Aeropuerto fracture stands out with 24 % of properties affected by visible damages corresponding to a RR of 365, 120 house equivalents and an approximate value of $1,204,597 USD. It is noteworthy that the degree of damage to houses attributable to land subsidence does not show a continuous distribution pattern. In some cases, it was observed that properties surrounding damaged or demolished houses show no visible damage. In the SLP-SGS-MA historical downtown area, where most buildings considered as cultural heritage are located, damage by land subsidence has also been documented (López et al. 2006). These monuments, associated with the presence of three fractures (M. Federico Silva, M. Regional and M. Mascara), were not included in this study due to the complexity in assessing their aesthetic, cultural and historical importance. 5 Discussion and conclusions The methodology used for the field study reported in this paper is simple and the results allow an approximation to the number of homes affected, the degree of damage as well as its distribution and economic loss in an urban area in a particular Mexican context. Under parameters of construction, it is necessary to refine the scale of damage in order to establish a more refined system to evaluate the gravity of this sort of hazard. In our opinion, the damage expressed as equivalent houses and its monetary value is underestimated because many other variables that influence the market value of a property are not considered. Unlike the original methodology that does not include land value, in the case of land subsidence, its inclusion was considered; the reason for including the cost of land in the estimation of damage is that unlike other threats land subsidence, besides causing irreparable damage to buildings that warrant its demolition, it also has an effect on land value. This is because, in the worst-case scenario reconstructing a building is not recommended, and if indeed the value of land has not been lost, it will still have an impact on the commercial value. In the case of damage reported by Blong (2003) for tropical cyclones, tornadoes and earthquakes, these phenomena occur suddenly and briefly, damaged buildings are usually repaired, only in case of serious damage are they demolished and a new building built so that land value is not lost, thus limiting the loss to the construction’s value. However, as land subsidence occurs gradually and over long periods of time, in extreme cases, it is not feasible to construct a new building because of the intensity and timelines of the phenomenon. Concerning the spatial distribution of damage, specifically in relation to the two fracturing systems reported by Arzate et al. (2008), Pacheco et al. (2010) and based on the data shown in Table 3, it can be established that 81 % of damaged homes are located in the N–S 123 Nat Hazards oriented fracturing system and that the number of households by degree of damage is also higher compared to fractures oriented near E–W; therefore, higher damage in house equivalents and monetary cost also correspond to the N–S system. A database on the structural characteristics, construction materials and construction date would allow the evaluation of such factors and damage degree. The temporal and spatial evolution of the effects of land subsidence in properties could be studied by monitoring such damaged properties. The integration of the fracturing map and the obtained results in this study in a GIS constitute an input for planning and urban arrangement to provide data on the distribution of the houses affected by degree of damage and cost associated with land subsidence. The construction of new residential areas, regardless of land subsidence and its implications, causes severe economic problems to owners, especially those of medium and low resources, due to the loss in value of their house and in some cases its total loss, as there is no liability to municipal authorities, nor is there transfer risk by purchasing insurance against such threats. In this sense, vulnerability and risk assessment are required to give information about the degree of exposure, socioeconomic fragility and resilience of the population exposed to land subsidence. Acknowledgments This Project was carried out with resources from the Support for Research Fund of the Universidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosı́ 2008-2. UASLP.REF. 18/2008 and C10-FAI-01-03-03 and Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologı́a Funds, 2009, C01-AINAT-01-25.25. Thanks to the Land Registry offices of the San Luis Potosi and Soledad de Graciano Sanchez municipalities for providing the requested information. Thanks to Ing. José Luis Mata-Segura for providing information and Dr. Ramón Torres-Hernandez for support. Thanks to Fernando Hernández Martı́nez, Gregorio Leija Loredo, Anahid Cruz Perez, Gabriela Lizardo Uribe, Irene Pérez Hernandez, Fabian Baltazar Herrera and Shannon for their support in fieldwork. References Aguirre GJ, Zúñiga R, Pacheco J, Guzmán M, Nieto J (2000) El graben de Querétaro México. 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