Correction to Tarrow 2011 Figure 5.3 (p. 109)

Armed Conflicts, 1946-2009
Author(s): Lotta Harbom and Peter Wallensteen
Source: Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 47, No. 4 (july 2010), pp. 501-509
Published by: Sage Publications, Ltd.
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20752204
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journal
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Armed Conflicts, 1946-2009
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Journalof Peace Research
47(4) 501-509
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Reprints and permission:
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DOI: 10.1177/0022343310376887
jpr.sagepub.com
Lotta Harbom & PeterWallensteen
#SAGE
Uppsala ConflictData Program (UCDP)
Abstract
recorded 36 active armed conflicts,down by one from 2008. Having remained fairlystable over the past few
the
number
of armed conflicts isnow substantially lower than during thepeak years of the early 1990s. But compared to
years,
the earlyyears of thisdecade, the figurehas increased by 24%. Six of the conflicts reached the level ofwar (more than 1,000
battle-relateddeaths) in 2009, up by one from 2008. No interstateconflictwas recorded, but seven intrastateconflictswere
internationalized, in the sense thatone or both of the conflictparties received troops support from an external state.The most
In 2009, UCDP
intensewar in termsof fatalitieswas that in Sri Lanka. Eight of the armed conflicts listedfor2008 were not active in 2009, but
one entirelynew conflict erupted inMyanmar (Kokang), twowere restartedby previously recorded actors in
during the year,
were restartedby new actors inCentral African Repub
Angola (Cabinda) and inRwanda and fourpreviously recorded conflicts
lic, India (Bodoland), Nigeria and Yemen. Only one peace agreementwas concluded during the year,which isdecidedly lower
than the annual average recorded for the past 20 years.
Keywords
conflict,data, dyad, peace agreement
Since the end ofWorld War II, a total of 244 armed conflicts
have been active in 151 locationsworldwide. The annual inci
dence of conflictand conflictdyads1 since 1989 is recorded in
Tables I and II and Figure 1 shows the trend in thenumber of
armed conflicts since 1946. Furthermore,Table I contains
information about the intensity of the armed conflicts,
whereas Table II focuses on their regional distribution. In
addition, Figure 1 gives informationabout the differenttypes
of armed conflict over the time period.
In 2009, 36 armed conflictswere active in 27 locations.
In seven of the 36 armed conflicts, two dyads were active and
in one conflict, three.Thus, a littleover one-fifthof the armed
conflicts active in 2009 saw more than one rebel group
challenging the government.
Six conflicts reached the intensityofwar in 2009, meaning
that therewere 1,000 ormore battle-relateddeaths.Up by one
since 2008, this figure is still considerably lower than during
the peak years of the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the
annual figure ranged between 12 and 16 for 11 consecutive
years. As thewars, the number of battle-related deaths has
This is one conflict less than recorded in 2008, but the same declined substantially but erratically since the early 1990s,
number of locations.2At 36, the figure remains substantially with one big peak in 1999-2000, caused by the conflict
lower thanduring thepeak years of the early 1990s,when over between Eritrea and Ethiopia.3 In 2009, as in 2008, the
50 conflictswere recorded.However, compared to the early conflict between the Sri Lankan government and the LTTE
caused thehighest number of deaths, followed by the conflicts
years of thisdecade, the figurehas increased by 24%. UCDP
in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, Rwanda and Somalia. In
recorded 45 active dyads in 2009, down by three from2008.
fighting in the Sri Lankan conflict which in 2009 resulted
in the defeat of the LTTE rebels aftermore than 24 years of
author:
Corresponding
conflict - UCDP
recorded somewhere between 7,400 and
lotta.harbom@pcr. uu.se
battle-related
deaths. As these deaths were solely
9,000
1
A dyad is defined as a pair of warring parties. In interstate conflicts, these
are governments of states, whereas in intrastate conflicts,
warring parties
one is the government of a state and the other is a rebel group. For more
incurred in fightingbetween Januaryand mid-May, theygive
an indication of how intense the confrontationwas.4
information about the dyadic dimension of armed conflicts, see Harbom,
can be
& Wallensteen
(2008). The UCDP
dyadic dataset
Melander
downloaded
from
http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_
publications/datasets.htm.
2
Last year (Harbom & Wallensteen, 2009) we reported 36 conflicts for 2008.
Based on new information,we have added the conflict between theUgandan
government and the rebel group LRA. Tables I?II, Figure 1, the UCDP
the UCDP
database (www.ucdp.uu.se/database),
Dyadic Dataset and the
Armed Conflict Dataset have been amended accordingly.
UCDP/PRIO
3
has been shown by Lacina and Gleditsch (2005). New data from
has coded specific fatality
also demonstrate this decline. UCDP
in
violence
all
three
of
(armed conflicts of the
categories
organized
figures
This
UCDP
type reported here [i.e. where at least one of the parties is the government
of a state], non-state conflict and one-sided violence) for the years 1989
2009. The data will be released in a geo-referenced event format in early 2011.
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502
journal ?/Peace Research 47(4)
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3
In 2008, UCDP
recorded the first interstateconflict since
2003 - Djibouti vs. Eritrea - but in 2009, as in 2004-07, all
36 registeredconflictswere foughtwithin states.However, as
Democratic Republic ofCongo (DRC) and Southern Sudan,
as well as in theCentral African Republic (CAR).
Only one peace agreementwas concluded in 2009. On 23
as seven of these intrastate conflicts were
internationa
March, theCongolese rebel group CNDP
signed the Ihussi
lized, in the sense that they involved troops sent fromexternal accord with the government, after its leaderLaurent Nkunda
states in aid of one of thewarring parties.These conflictswere
came under house arrest inRwanda and was replacedwith the
inAfghanistan, Algeria, Iraq, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda and more pro-talksNtaganda Bosco (see more below). Over the
USA.5 The names of these conflictsdo not necessarily indicate past two decades, the signing of peace accords has become a
occurrence
in armed
in Africa.
where the actual fighting takes place. Their names reflectthe common
conflict,
especially
location of the incompatibility- which government it is that Some 183 peace agreementshave been signed since 1989, with
as
is being disputed, or inwhich country a disputed territoryis an annual
of almost
9.7 However,
average
previously
located. For instance, in the case of theUgandan conflict, the observed (Harbom, Melander & Wallensteen, 2008) many
of the conflicts now recorded are unusually protracted and
incompatibility concerns governmental power in Uganda,6
but no fightingtook place in this country in2009. Instead, all
involve a number of actors. Thus, peacemaking may have
conflict activitywas located in the neighbouring countries become more difficultas the conflictsaremore complex, and
may require a highly concerted internationaleffort.
Two conflicts (inAngola and Rwanda) were restartedby
many
4
was a
Estimating the number of battle-related deaths in Sri Lanka in 2009
difficult task.Almost no casualty figures could be independently verified since
the Sri Lankan government banned all journalists from the conflict zone and
only ICRC (International Committee of theRed Cross) was allowed to oper
on reports from differ
ate to some extent in the area. UCDP's
figure is based
ent aid agencies and news services and is likely to be too low. It isbest viewed
as a baseline estimation of the number of battle-related deaths; we know that at
least thismany people were killed in the fighting.
5
See Appendix 1 for information on the states contributing troops to these
conflicts.
6
Many observers and analysts claim that theUgandan rebel group LRA does not
have a political agenda, arguing that any political aims and goals that the group
may have had at its foundation have been abandoned and that the rebellion has
continues to record the conflict between
turned into banditry.However, UCDP
theUgandan government and the LRA as one over governmental power, since
the program records 'stated goals of incompatibility', and the group's leader
Joseph Kony has announced numerous times that his aim is to replace the
on the
Kampala regime. UCDP's
coding rule is to rely
goals that the group
itselfannounces, rather than trying to evaluate or interpret these aims. This
rule is strictlyenforced so as to avoid any bias and arbitrariness in the data.
For more information, see Harbom & Sundberg (2010).
previously recorded actors.The conflictbetween theAngolan
government and the rebel group FLEC-FAC,
fighting for
independence for the Cabinda exclave, became active again
aftera relativelyquiet 2008. This conflicthas hovered around
the 25 battle-related deaths threshold for inclusion for a
number
of years.
After seven years without serious fighting between the
Rwandan government and the rebel group FDLR, based
in neighboring DRC,
the conflict escalated in 2009. On
20 January2009, Rwandan government troops crossed into
launched Operation Umoja Wetu
('Our
unity') alongside the Congolese Army. Aspiring to destroy
the FDLR's bases as well as to generallyweaken the hard core
of the group, the operation was deemed a success by the
the DRC
and
7
Peace Agreement Dataset (dynamic dataset version), downloaded
UCDP
fromwww.pcr.uu.se/database/dataset.php.
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journal of "Peace Research 47(4)
504
Rwandan
side when
February.
However,
the country's troopswithdrew in late
the
FDLR
recovered
sooner
than
anticipated, and inMarch, theCongolese Army, assisted by
in the DRC
the United Nations Organization Mission
II
Kimia
launched
(MONUC),
Operation
against the rebels.
Starting in Nord-Kivu, the operation moved south during
the remains of the year. By the end of 2009, the rebels
weakened, but this came
appeared to have been significantly
at a considerable cost for the civilian population in the area,
the group's leader,Mohammed Yussuf, was killed and the
fightingabated. Although some Boko Haram leadersmanaged
to escape
and
later made
threats of renewed
violence,
no more
attackswere reportedduring 2009.
In Yemen,
an
intrastate
conflict
over
government
was
last
recorded in 1979-1982, when the leftist
National Democratic
Front challenged the thenNorth Yemeni government.8 In
2009, a conflictwas again recorded in the country as the local
al-Qaida branches in Yemen and Saudi Arabia merged and
announced the formation ofAQAP (al-Qaida in theArabian
conflict.
Peninsula). In response, theYemeni government intensifiedits
In 2009, one new conflicterupted,between thegovernment military effortsto prevent al-Qaida fromgainingmore ground
ofMyanmar and theMNDAA,
concerning the status of the in the country, and the end of the year saw several attacks on
in
the
of
AQAP strongholds.
territory Kokang
country's easternShan state.Having
been granted temporary autonomy in 1989, theMNDAA
Eight conflicts listed in 2008 were no longer active in
for the following20 years.However, in 2009. In Burundi, the rebel group Palipehutu-FNL did not
controlled the territory
2009, the governmentdemand, thatMNDAA be transformed take up arms again in 2009 afterhaving signed a peace agree
into a Border Guard force and renounce control of Kokang, ment inDecember 2008. Instead, as a first step to implement
the new peace accord, the group was renamed FNL on 8 Jan
spawned theoutbreak of the conflict.
new
were
Four previously recorded conflicts
restartedby
uary thus removing the controversial referenceto ethnicity
actors: in the Central African Republic, India (Bodoland),
in itsname - and could begin the process of registeringas a
a
Nigeria and Yemen. In theCentral African Republic conflict political party. On 21 April, theMinistry of the Interior
was last recorded in 2006, when some of the persons thathad
approved theFNL's registration,and thegroup's formal trans
to
in
Francois
formation from a rebel group to a political partywas com
the
Bozize,
power
country's president,
helped
2003 broke away from the president's fold and created the pleted (HRW, 2008).
In theDemocratic Republic ofCongo (DRC), neither the
rebel group UFDR. After sporadic clashes throughout 2006,
nor the one over
a peace agreementwas concluded inApril 2007. During the conflict over governmental
power
territory
rest of the year and in 2008, no large-scalefighting erupted was active in 2009. On the latter, in which the politico
in the country, even though the situation remained tense. In
religiousmovement BDK was fighting the government for
new
in
the
the
rebel
group CPJP emerged
January 2009,
independence for theBas-Congo province, very little informa
north-easternpart of the country. In itsfirstofficial statement, tion is available. It appears as ifactivity simplydropped in the
thegroup demanded the resignationof thepresident, claiming already low-intensityconflict, and that it subsequently fell
that he had betrayed his own people. Intermittentfighting below the25 battle-relateddeaths threshold. In the former,the
in the eastern
between theCPJP and government troopswas subsequently government had fought the rebel group CNDP
who had become the targetof attacks from both sides in the
part of the country for three consecutive yearswhen conflict
reported through the restof the year.
The conflict between the Indian government and rebels activity dropped in 2009. The decrease in hostilities was
mainly tied to the initiationof cooperation between DRC and
strivingfor the creation of a separate Indian stateof'Bodoland'
area
Rwanda in January2009. Rwanda had been CNDP's main
north of the riverBrahmaputra inAssam in north
(the
eastern India) was active duringmost of the 1990s and thefirst supporter, but as a part of its deal with DRC - which was
rebels
years of the 2000s. In 2004, the rebel group NDFB and the mainly focused on targeting the Rwandan FDLR
(see above) Kigali turnedon theirformerpatrons and placed
government agreed on a truce, and thiswas followed by a
leader Lauren Nkunda under house arrest. The
period of relative calm. However, in 2009 fighting erupted CNDP
was
one
new leader,
to nego
the
of
of
NDFB's
This
Bosco, was more
open
top
again.
ousting
preceded by
leaders from themain, pro-talks faction of the group in 2008,
a
as a resultof his
alleged involvement in bombing campaign
civilian
The
leader,
targets.
against
Ranjan Daimary, subse
the
armed
resumed
quently
strugglewith a faction of the
to
him
Daimary
(NDFB-Ranjan
original group, loyal
group's
Ntaganda
tiationswith theCongolese government, and on 23 March the
Ihussi peace accord was concluded between the regime in
Kinshasa and the rebel group.
The 2008 interstateconflictbetween Djibouti and Eritrea,
over the two countries' common border, which is
fought
neither
delineated nor demarcated, was not active in 2009.
faction).
In 2009, Nigeria saw the first outbreak of an intrastate The fighting ceased inmid-2008 and has not recurred since
remain
in a tense stand-off,
countries
conflict over governmental power since 1966, as the Islamic
then. The
locked
and
sect Boko Haram emerged as a fightingforce.The group had
already in2005 stated itsaim of carryingout an armed struggle
to set up a puritanical Islamic government, but no fighting
erupted until July2009. Following fourdays of heavy clashes,
8
North and South Yemen merged into the Republic
referred to as 'Yemen' inUCDP
data) in 1990.
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All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
of Yemen
(simply
Harbom & Wallensteen 505
Eritrea has failed to complywith internationalcalls- including
threats of sanctions
-
to withdraw
its forces
to status
quo
ante.
After a week of heavy fighting inAugust 2008, conflict
activitybetween the breakaway, self-proclaimedRepublic of
South Ossetia and Georgia came to an end when a ceasefire
www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm.
versions of die dataset can be found both at
www.pcr.uu.se/
and www.
research/UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets_archive.htm
were
in
The
tables
and
this
article
prio.no/cscw/armedconflia.
figures
created direcdy from the Excel
sheet at www.pcr.uu.se/research/
Older
was signed in
Detailed
descriptions
mid-August. Only minor violations of the truce UCDP/data_and_publications/datasets.htm.
are found at
were reported
of
rest
the
individual
conflicts
the
the
and
of
the
conflict
did
year
www.ucdp.uu.se/database.
through
not become active in 2009. With the core question of the Replication data for this article can be found atwww.prio.no/jpr/datasets.
statusof South Ossetia stillunresolved, the situation remained
tense,however, and negotiations during theyear failed to lead
to any
Acknowledgements
tangible results.
was financed by the Swedish Interna
in
the conflict between the Indian government Research for this article
Fighting
tional Cooperation Development Agency (Sida) and Uppsala
and the rebel group DHD-BW
did not reach the required
Numerous colleagues inUppsala have contributed
University.
threshold for inclusion in 2009, and the conflictwas subse
to
the
data
collection, notably Marie Allansson, Johan
which demands
quently recorded as not active. DHD-BW,
Maria
Brosche,
Greek, Helena Grusell, Stina H?gbladh,
an ethnic homeland for the Dimasa
population in parts of
Emma
Johansson, JoakimKreutz, Sara Lindberg, Ausra Pads
Assam and Nagaland in north-eastern India, suffereda heavy
Therese Pettersson,Ralph Sundberg, Samuel Taub
kocimaite,
blow in June,when itsfounder and leader JewelGarlossa was
von Uexk?ll.
Nina
and
arrested.Over the subsequent months, hundreds of fighters
surrendered to the securityforces.
Another conflict in north-eastern India also fell below the
References
level for inclusion in 2009: that between the Indian govern
data collection:
Harbom, Lotta& Ralph Sundberg(2010) Systematic
ment and theMuslim rebel group PULF.
from
Fighting for thepro
the
Conflict
Data
In:
Experiences
Uppsala
Program.
tectionof theMuslim community in thenorth-east,PULF has
KristineH?glund & Magnus Oberg, eds,Understanding
Peace
also stated an aim ofwanting to create an Islamic state in the
Research: Methods
and
London
&
New
York:
Challenges.
region.Although a few clashes took place during theyear, the
in press.
Routledge,
level of fightinghad decreased compared to 2008 and did not
Lotta &
Peter Wallensteen
Armed
Harbom,
conflicts,
(2009)
reach the level required for an armed conflict in 2009.
1946-2008. JournalofPeace Research46(4): 577-587.
Finally, in the conflict fought in northernNiger between Harbom, Lotta; ErikMelander & Peter
Wallensteen (2008) Dyadic
the government and theTouareg rebel groupMNJ, no fight
dimensions
of armed conflict,
1946-2007.
Journal
of Peace
ingwas reported in 2009. During the first two years ofMNJ
Research45(5): 697-719.
activity,2007 and 2008, the government had refused to open HRW
(2009) Pursuit of power: Political violence and repression in
negotiationswith the rebels, referringto them as simple ban
Burundi. Human
dits.
However,
in 2009
a
peace
process
was
initiated,
and
Rights Watch, May.
Lacina,Bethany& Nils PetterGleditsch (2005)Monitoring trendsin
many rebels handed in theirweapons.
new dataset of battle deaths.
global combat: A
European Journal of
Overall, developments in 2009 do not point clearly in
Population21(2-3): 145-166.
the direction of either thewaning of war or its resurgence
V?yrynen,Raimo, ed. (2006) TheWaning of
Major War: Theoriesand
(Vayrynen,2006). However, therehas been a gradual increase
Debates.
London & New York:
Routledge.
in numbers since 2003. On the aggregate level, the conflict
LOTTA HARBOM, b. 1975,MA inPeace andConflictResearch
map remainsvirtuallyunchanged fromyear toyear.Also, there
are many conflicts just above or just below the violence
(UppsalaUniversity,2002); project leader,
Uppsala ConflictData
of Peace and Conflict Research.
She has
threshold for inclusion.The 'new' conflicts in 2009 generally
Program, Department
on conflict data inJournal
articles
Peace
Research
and
in
old conflicts. The
published
of
represent fresh outbreaks of violence
SIPRI Yearbooksince2005 and editedStatesinArmedConflictsince
in
recorded 'new' one, theKokang conflict Myanmar, has its
2004.
roots in events in the 1960s and occurred in a countrywhere
the government was already fighting two other separatist
PETER WALLENSTEEN, b. 1945, PhD (UppsalaUniversity,
movements. The most
disturbing sign for 2009 is that there
1973); Dag Hammarskj?ld Professorof Peace and Conflict
was only one new peace agreement.This may not bode well
Research,Uppsala University(1985-) andRichardG StarmannSr
for the future.
Research Professor of Peace Studies,
of Notre Dame
Replication data
The complete datasets (UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset
and UCDP Dyadic Dataset) updated to 2009 are found at
(2006-
). Some
recent works:
University
International Sanctions:
Between
Words andWars in theGlobal System(FrankCass, 2005), Under
Resolution:
War, Peace and theGlobal System(Sage,
standing
Conflict
2007) and ThirdParties inConflictPrevention(Gidlunds,2008).
This content downloaded from 128.210.126.199 on Wed, 25 Mar 2015 18:41:07 UTC
All use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditions
506
journal ofPeace Research 47(4)
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509
Harbom & Wallensteen
Appendix
2. Unclear
cases in 2009
that have been completely rejected on the grounds that they definitely do not meet the criteria of armed con
flict are not included in the listbelow. For the conflicts listed here, the available information suggests thepossibility of
Cases
the cases meeting the criteria of armed conflicts, but there is insufficient information concerning at least one of the
three components of the definition: (a) the number of deaths; (b) the identity or level of organization of a party or (c)
the type of incompatibility. For unclear cases for the entire 1946-2009 period, see www.pcr.uu.se/uncdp/research/
our_datal.htm orwww.prio.no/cwp/armedconflict. The unclear aspect may concern an entire conflict or a dyad in a
1
conflict that is included inAppendix
Location/Government
Opposition
Algeria
DHDS
Democratic
Republic
of Congo
DHD-BW
Indonesia
OPM
Yemen
al-Salafia in theAlgeria conflict).
Unclear
organization
Patriots-Resistance
MEND
al-Daawa
(DjamatHoumat Daawa Salafia:Protectorsof theSalafiCall)
India
Nigeria
(e.g. Houmat
of Dongo
(Organisasi
Papua
of deaths
Incompatibility
(DimaHalam Daogah-BlackWidow)
merdeka:
Number
aspect
Organization
for a Free Papua)
(MovementfortheEmancipationof theNiger Delta)
Shabab al-Mu'mineen (theBelievingYouth)
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Number
of deaths
Identity of organization
Incompatibility
Incompatibility