BCREA 2016 Second Quarter Housing Forecast

Second Quarter — June 2016
HOUSING FORECAST
RECORD BREAKING HOUSING DEMAND IN BRITISH COLUMBIA
Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the
province are forecast to reach a record 115,000 units
this year, well above the the ten-year average of 83,000
unit sales. Broad-based consumer demand is breaking
sales records across many regions in the southern half
of the province. While the frenetic pace of consumer
demand this spring is unlikely to be sustained over
the longer term, BC’s strong performing economy is
expected to backstop the market and keep demand for
housing at an above average level through 2017. After
climbing 22 per cent in 2015 and a further 12 per cent
this year, BC MLS® residential sales are forecast to edge
back a little over 8 per cent to 105,600 units in 2017.
Consumer confidence is high in BC as economic
growth outpaces all other provinces. Robust job growth
and significant gains in retail sales activity are clear
signs that households are confident. Relatively weak
economic conditions in Alberta are driving many
footloose younger households into the province in
search of jobs. Indeed, net interprovincial migration
reached nearly 17,000 individuals in 2015, the highest
level in two decades. This increase has helped offset
a decline in net-international migration, led by a steep
reduction in the number of non-permanent residents.
While housing demand is relatively unchanged, record
home sales in many other regions of the province have
drawn down the inventory of homes for sale, creating
a marked imbalance between supply and demand. As
a result, home prices are being pushed higher, and
eroding housing affordability is once again on the
front burner.
The average MLS® residential price in the province is
forecast to increase 20.4 per cent to $766,600 this year
and a further 3.4 per cent to $792,800 in 2017.
Strong housing demand and a lack of inventory has
not gone unnoticed by home builders. Total housing
starts in the province are forecast to reach 37,800 units
this year, the highest level of production since 2007.
However, the lengthy time lag between a housing start
and its completion means that markets experiencing
the most severe supply droughts, like Metro
Vancouver, will likely remain in sellers’ market territory
for the foreseeable future.
INSIDE
Economic Outlook ................................................. 2
Vancouver Island-Coast ........................................4
Lower Mainland-Sourthwest .................................6
Thompson-Okanagan.............................................8
Northern BC ......................................................... 10
Kootenay ...............................................................12
Tables ....................................................................13
1
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Although a booming provincial housing market is
grabbing most of the headlines, the BC economy
is flourishing across a diverse cross-section of
industries. The low Canadian dollar helped fuel
a record setting year for tourism in 2015 while
strong job growth has household spending
surging higher. Even the manufacturing sector,
which posted only modest growth overall, saw
strong gains in an array of areas from computer
equipment to transportation and machinery.
2015 1
2016F
2017F
Real GDP Growth (%)
3.0
3.3
2.9
Employment (millions)
2.3
2.4
2.4
BC Economic Outlook
Employment Growth (%)
Unemployment (000s)
Unemployment Rate (%)
Personal Disposable Income ($billions)
Personal Disposable Income Growth (%)
Average Weekly Wage
1.2
2.8
1.7
149.9
137.1
133.0
6.0
5.6
5.4
151.8
158.0
164.8
3.9
4.1
4.3
914.0
938.0
960.0
Weekly Wage Growth (%)
3.6
2.6
2.3
Retail Sales ($billions)
70.9
75.2
79.1
Retails Sales Growth (%)
6.8
6.1
5.2
Range of Posted 5-year Fixed Mortgage Rate
4.64-4.79 4.64-4.64
1. Values have been estimated where data has not yet been released.
Source: BCREA Economics, Statistics Canada
Indeed, net interprovincial migration reached a
20 year high in 2015 at close to 17,000 people. The
majority came from workers fleeing the struggling
economy in Alberta.
The Canada-leading BC economy expanded by
3 per cent in 2015 and is on pace for an even
stronger performance this year. While the economy
has posted solid growth for several years, it
wasn’t until late last year that employment began
catching up. Over the last 12 months, BC’s Labour
market demonstrated a dramatic improvement.
Across a wide spectrum of indicators, from
employment growth to hours worked to hourly
wages, labour market conditions in the province
have strengthened considerably. Job growth in the
province averaged a respectible 3 per cent in the
first quarter of 2016.
Perhaps more importantly, employment growth
has been dominated by high quality full-time
jobs, which helped push wage growth 4 per cent
higher last year. Given the rising pace of job gains
in the province, the provincial unemployment
rate is expected to fall even further than it has
already. However, an influx of job seekers from
neighbouring provinces will likely mean that the
unemployment rate will decline more gradually.
22
Strong growth in household income, a growing
population and an improving labour market are
part of the explanation behind surging housing
demand, but demographics are also playing a big
role. According to BC Stats population projections,
the next ten years will see a wave of growth in the
population of individuals aged 25 to 49. In fact,
from 2015 to 2025, that age cohort is projected
to expand by close to 225,000 people. Growth
among this segment of the population, which is
most likely to start a family or look for a moveup property, will put added pressure on singledetached and other family oriented housing.
4.64-4.84
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
The elevated demand for family oriented
housing comes at a time when the available
inventory is in very short supply. Fortunately, total
units under construction are at a near decade high
and developers have been breaking ground on
new homes at an accelerated pace to start 2016.
The focus of new home construction, particularly
in the densely populated greater Vancouver area,
continues to be multi-family units. However,
recent years have seen a sustained increase in
construction of new single detached homes, many
of which are replacements rather than additions to
the stock.
Recent legislation by the provincial government
exempting new units under $750,000 from the
property transfer tax is likely providing further
incentive for homebuilders to ramp up production.
In addition, the low interest rate environment of
the past several years is expected to prevail into
2017 as tempered Canadian economic growth
and inflation keep the Bank of Canada on the
sidelines. Housing starts are forecast to increase
20 per cent to 37,800 units this year, before edging
back to 34,200 in 2017.
While the prospects for the domestic side of the
economy are brighter than they have been in
many years, external demand remains a drag
on growth. The Chinese economy, long an engine
of expendature for BC exports, is undergoing
June 2016
a significant period of transition from growth
dominated by construction and exports towards
economic expansion driven by services and
domestic consumption. That transition involves
a slowing of China’s once double-digit economic
growth. Exports to China declined for the second
year in a row in 2015, falling close to 6 per cent.
The ripple effect of slowing Chinese growth has
been felt across the Pacific Rim with demand from
other major BC export markets, like Japan and
South Korea, slowing as well. Not only did external
demand for BC goods slow last year, but also
demand for BC residency. Total net international
migration was just 14,676 last year, the lowest
total since 1991.
However, strong domestic demand, particularly
from residential construction and robust consumer
spending, is so far offsetting the drag on growth
from faltering exports. The BC economy has posted
robust growth over the past two years and we
expect that to continue over our forecast horizon.
Monthly tracking estimates indicate that the BC
economy has been expanding above a 3 per cent
rate over the first three months of the year and
we expect that rate of growth to continue for the
remainder of 2016, before a slight downgrade to
2.9 per cent in 2017.
13
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
VANCOUVER ISLAND-COAST
The Victoria, Vancouver Island and Powell River
Sunshine Coast Real Estate Boards service the
Vancouver Island-Coast Region of the province.
Housing demand in this region has accelerated over
the last several quarters, causing a tightening of
market conditions. The relative imbalance between
consumer demand and the number of homes for sale
has created a sellers’ market in many communities
base of the region. Indeed, over 80 per cent of the
region’s workers are employed in the service sector.
Population growth is on an upswing across the region
after relatively slow growth in the 2011-2014 period. A
notable increase in overall migration has bolstered the
working age population, while broader demographic
trends are expected to boost the number of retirees
relocating to the region in the coming years.
24
and across most home types. Key drivers of the
region’s housing market are employment growth
and an increasing population base.
Adding to the local economy are nearly $12 billion
in major projects now underway, with an estimated
$47 billion in projects now proposed.
Employment growth in the Victoria census
metropolitan area (CMA) over the last year has
been particularly robust, after several years of
relative weakness. While one-quarter of BC’s public
administration jobs are situated in the Vancouver
Island-Coast region, with the provincial capital
leading the sector, gains in tourism activity and
related employment are contributing to the economic
Home sales through the MLS® in Victoria are forecast
to reach a record 8,960 units this year, eclipsing the
previous record of 8,403 units in 2007. The nearly
14 per cent increase year-over-year is the fourth
consecutive year of sales growth. In fact, housing
demand in Victoria has been on an upswing since
early 2013.
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
Housing demand across Vancouver Island is
also at an elevated level, as improving economic
conditions buoy consumer confidence. Home sales
on Vancouver Island outside of Victoria are forecast
to increase over 16 per cent to 9,700 units this year,
close to the record 9,887 units that traded in 2007.
More frenetic buying activity has drawn down the
number of homes for sale in the Vancouver IslandCoast region. Total active listings were down 38
per cent in Victoria during April compared to the
previous year, and down 28 per cent across the
rest of the Island. The relative imbalance between
supply and demand is exerting upward pressure
on home prices. The price of a typical home is now
rising at an annual pace of 12 per cent in Victoria
and 8 per cent across Vancouver Island.
June 2016
Home builders are responding to a housing supply
shortage by ramping up production. The supply of
newly completed and unoccupied units has declined
significantly in both Victoria and Nanaimo. While the
number of units under construction has increased in
Nanaimo, additional new home construction activity
will be needed to keep home price growth from
further accelerating in Victoria. An expanding housing
stock is expected to ease some of the pressure on
the supply side, and fewer home sales next year will
provide some demand side relief.
The average home price in the region is forecast to
increase 15.4 per cent to $602,000 in the Victoria
Real Estate Board area this year and a further 6.2 per
cent $618,200 in 2017. Across the Vancouver Island
Real Estate Board area the average home price is
forecast to rise nearly 10 per cent to $373,000 and a
further 3 per cent to $384,000 in 2017.
15
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
LOWER MAINLAND-SOUTHWEST
The Lower Mainland-Southwest region is serviced
by the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, the
Fraser Valley and the Chilliwack Real Estate Boards.
The area contributes over 60 per cent of the housing
demand in the province.
The regional economy is performing exceptionally
well. Employment in Metro Vancouver is climbing
at a 5 per cent year-over-year pace, the strongest
growth in over a decade. The buoyant economy
has heightened consumer confidence. Retail trade
in Metro Vancouver has grown at a phenomenal
double digit rate over the last 12 months.
Population growth in the region continues to be
fueled by migration. Weaker economic conditions in
Alberta combined with robust employment growth
in Metro Vancouver is contributing to an increase
in net inter-provincial migration. The shift from a
net loss of inter-provincial migrants to a net gain
suggests that younger footloose households are
braving the region’s high home prices in favour
of employment opportunities. Indeed, Metro
Vancouver’s relatively robust economy has likely
forestalled some households from migrating to
other provinces.
Over one million immigrants have landed in BC over
the last 30 years, with the vast majority settling in
Metro Vancouver and the Lower Mainland-Southwest
region. While net-international migration appears to
have waned over the last year, the change is largely
due to a pull-back of non-permanent residents. We
expect immigration to trend higher in the region over
the next few years, further bolstering population and
household growth.
Housing demand across the Lower MainlandSouthwest region of the province has increased
significantly over the last 12 months. Current sales
activity is at a record level, with the Fraser Valley
and Chilliwack mirroring Vancouver’s breakneck
pace of transactions. MLS® residential sales
through the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
region are projected to rise nearly 9 per cent to
a 47,000 units this year. A sustained upswing
in consumer demand is expected to push home
sales up by over 21 per cent in the Fraser Valley
Real Estate Board area and nearly 19 per cent in
Chilliwack to 24,300 and 3,725 units respectively.
26
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
Not surprisingly, record housing demand has drawn
down the inventory of homes for sale. Strong market
cycles are typically driven by a marked increase in
first-time buyers and investors. When you add a net
gain of inter-provincial migrants to this mix, market
conditions can catapult into a strong imbalance
between supply and demand.
Total active residential listings in the region’s three
real estate boards are trending near decade lows.
The combination of record consumer demand and
fewer homes for sale has the region grappling with
just two months of supply on the market. This is in
stark contrast to the five to eight months of supply
that is characteristic of a balanced market in the
Lower Mainland-Southwest region of the province.
The relationship between the supply of homes for
sale and consumer demand is well known. Recent
market conditions have put considerable upward
June 2016
pressure on home prices. The average home price
in the region is expected to increase between 22
and 25 per cent in Vancouver and the Fraser Valley,
and nearly 16 per cent in Chilliwack this year.
Upward pressure on prices is most acute in the
single-detached market, where land constraints are
quickly turning these homes into a luxury product
in many areas.
A shortage of supply has not gone unnoticed by
builders and developers. There are more homes
now under construction than ever in Metro
Vancouver. However, since large multiple projects
often take many years between conception and
completion, imbalance in the market is likely to
persist alongside above average consumer demand.
Given the relatively strong economic fundamentals
of the region, the expected dip in home sales in
2017 will be more like going from a boil down to a
strong simmer.
17
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
THOMPSON-OKANAGAN
The Thompson-Okanagan region is served by the
Okanagan Mainline and South Okanagan Real Estate
Boards as well as the Kamloops and District Real
Estate Association. The region’s economy has been
surprisingly resilient to the impact of low commodity
prices and a slowing of the flow of Albertans buying
retirement and recreation properties.
housing demand is on a pronounced upswing in the
region, with record unit sales recently recorded at
the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board.
Homebuyers from Alberta typically account for
about 15 per cent of home sales in the Okanagan,
but the struggling Alberta economy appears to
be taking a toll on that demand. During the first
quarter of 2016, the proportion of home buyers
originating from Alberta slipped to approximately
8 per cent. However, at least part of the declining
proportion of buyers from Alberta has been offset
by a commensurate increase in buyers originating
from the Lower Mainland and other regions of the
province. Shifting buyer origins belies the fact that
28
A growing population is one of the major drivers
of consumer demand in the region. Across the
Thompson-Okanagan, net-migration rebounded
after a precipitous post-recession decline. This
increase has drawn down housing inventories and
tightened the rental market. Home sales across the
region climbed 9 per cent in 2015, led by double
digit growth in both the South Okanagan and the
Kamloops board areas.
Those gains are especially impressive, given some
of the headwinds the regional economy is facing.
Employment growth statistics for the region have
been disappointing, particularly in the manufacturing
sector where a marked number of jobs have been
lost. However, population growth, strong consumer
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
confidence and increasing new construction activity
is likely beginning to reverse this trend.
Despite some temporary weakness in the job
market, housing demand has been exceptionally
robust. Through the first quarter of the year, home
sales in the Okanagan Mainline region were up
23.5 per cent, while sales throughout the South
Okanagan and Kamloops regions were up
16.2 per cent and 22.8 per cent respectively.
June 2016
in the Okanagan. As a result, market conditions in
Kamloops remain in relative balance.
Affordability across the region deteriorated for
much of the 2000s, but since 2009 it has greatly
improved. The average inflation-adjusted monthly
carrying cost for homeowners in the Okanagan and
Kamloops has returned to 2006 levels as a result
of relatively stable home prices and low mortgage
rates. However, those affordability gains are now
eroding in many communities as strong demand
and a dwindling supply push home prices higher.
Robust housing demand has builders and
developers ramping up production once again.
After grappling with an oversupply in the
condominium market for many years, home builders
in the Kelowna area are now increasing production
in response to a lack of supply. Total housing starts
in the area are forecast to climb over 21 per cent to
more than 1,550 units, with multiple starts up over
46 per cent to 955 units.
Strong housing demand has drawn down the supply
of homes for sale, particularly in the Okanagan.
The resulting imbalance has created sellers’ market
conditions, and the attendant rising prices. The
average price for a home rose 7.3 per cent in the
Okanagan Mainline area and 9.2 per cent in the
South Okanagan through the first quarter of the
year. The Kamloops area has also seen a decline in
supply, though not nearly the same magnitude as
19
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
NORTHERN BC
Housing markets in Northern BC were tempered
in 2015 as energy and other commodity prices
dramatically downshifted. Employment in the
region dipped in response as resource production
and exploration activity slowed and construction
activity waned. An expected ramp-up of housing
demand resulting from natural gas mega-projects
statistical analysis conducted in late 2014 had
predicted the impact of falling oil prices on home
sales across the North, though markets in the
northern most parts of the province were hit hardest
and the impact proved to be much more persistent.
has yet to materialize. Natural gas prices, key to the
development of future export terminals in Kitimat
and Prince Rupert, have remained depressed and
the outlook for prices is for only modest gains over
the next five years. However, since the economic life
of large LNG projects spans many decades, many of
the proposed projects can theoretically stay on the
drawing board for some time to come.
However, the North has a large and diverse
economy and not all communities were impacted
equally by low commodity prices. Our own
2 10
Employment trends in the North have diverged
from the rest of BC, as strong employment gains
in the province are in stark contrast to the North’s
relatively weaker economic conditions and job
losses. The initial labour market shock is now likely
winding down and greater stability may be in store
for the balance of the year.
In spite of ongoing uncertainty in the commodity
markets, many northern communities appear to
have turned the corner. After posting a 25 per cent
decline in sales last year, home sales in Prince
Rupert were up 35 per cent during the first quarter,
while similar gains are being made in Quesnel and
100-Mile House.
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Prince George, the largest city in the North, has
also posted double-digit growth in home sales
throughout the first three months of the year. While
those areas are recovering, other markets like
Kitimat, Fort St. John and Terrace continue to feel
the effects of weak commodity prices.
The variability of consumer demand in communities
across the North means that this general forecast of
home sales and prices across the region is more of
a starting point than an end point in understanding
market dynamics. Indeed, the relative affordability
between urban areas in the North is uneven, with stark
contrasts between markets such Smithers and Terrace.
Home prices across the BC Northern board area
held their ground last year. A 6.5 per cent decline in
home sales was met with a commensurate pullback
in active residential listings. As a result, overall
market conditions remained in relative balance,
with the average residential price edging up
1 per cent to nearly $265,000 in 2015.
Housing demand across the North is expected to
post a modest gain this year, rising 3 per cent to
4,340 units. While variability within the region
will persist, the overall trend is toward greater
stability. Balanced market conditions are expected
to prevail this year as well, with the average home
price rising nearly 1 per cent to $267,000. The
outlook for 2017 is for a gradually improving trend,
strengthening economic conditions and growing
consumer confidence.
Residential construction activity in Prince George
is on an upswing. Housing starts climbed 29 per
cent to over 200 units last year, and are expected to
increase a further 25 per cent to 255 units in 2016.
This increase is expected to push inventory levels
higher. As a result, new construction activity is
expected to fall back to 180 units in 2017 as home
builders work to complete and sell existing projects.
111
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
KOOTENAY
Communities in the Kootenay region have largely
withstood the weakness in commodity demand and
the associated downturn in the Alberta economy.
While slower growth in China has negatively
impacted coal shipments, for example, favourable
exchange rates are generating increased revenues
in the tourism industry. A rising number of visitors
from the US is also being complimented by a
growing number of staycations by BC residents and
other Canadian households.
and inducing household expenditures. A total of
$3.6 billion worth of major projects are currently
under construction in the region, with another
$2.3 billion in the proposal stage, including three
mining developments and a trades training facility.
The impact of an aging population and the relative
affordability of housing in the Kootenays should
not be overlooked, as many communities offer
environments conducive to retirees. While many
Albertans are flocking to BC in search of jobs, many
are cashing out and moving to the Island, Okanagan
and Kootenays to begin their retirement.
In addition, a large number of major projects in the
Kootenay region are bolstering local employment
2 12
Across the Kootenay region, home sales are forecast
to rise 6 per cent to 2,650 units this year, the
highest number of transactions in a decade. Rising
consumer demand has pulled down the inventory of
homes for sale. Total active listings on the market
were down 7 per cent in April compared to the same
period last year. However, market conditions remain
in relative balance in most Kootenay communities.
Current market conditions suggest a gradual
increase in the home prices. The average MLS®
residential price is forecast to edge up 1.5 per cent
to nearly $280,000 this year, and a further
2.3 per cent $286,000 in 2017.
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
72,936
7.8
84,049
15.2
102,517
22
115,170
12.3
105,615
-8.3
$537,414
4.4
$568,405
5.8
$636,600
12
$766,600
20.4
$792,800
3.4
MLS® Dollar Volume ($billions)
% change
$39.20
12.6
$47.77
21.9
$65.26
36.6
$88.29
35.3
$83.73
-5.2
Housing Starts
% change
27,054
-1.5
28,356
4.8
31,452
10.9
37,800
20.2
34,200
-9.5
Single
% change
8,522
2.3
9,569
12.3
10,158
6.2
11,300
11.2
10,000
-11.5
Multiple
% change
18,532
-3.1
18,787
1.4
21,294
13.3
26,500
24.4
24,200
-8.7
Total Net Migration
% change
33,625
37.2
43,932
30.7
31,418
-28.5
40,000
27.3
43,000
7.5
Net International Migration
% change
34,457
9.9
33,890
-1.6
14,676
-56.7
25,000
70.3
33,000
32.0
(832)
81.9
10,042
1307.0
16,742
66.7
15,000
-10.4
10,000
-33.3
Range of Posted 5-year Fixed Mortgage Rate %
5.14-5.34
4.79-4.99
4.64-4.79
4.79-5.20
4.79-5.20
BC Economic Outlook
2013
2014
2015
2016F
2017F
Real GDP Growth (%)
2.1
3.2
3.0
3.3
2.9
Employment (millions)
2.27
2.28
2.31
2.37
2.41
Employment Growth (%)
0.1
0.6
1.2
2.8
1.7
159.7
146.9
149.9
137.1
133
Unemployment Rate (%)
6.6
6.1
6.0
5.6
5.4
Personal Disposable Income ($billions)
142
145.9
151.8
158.0
164.8
Personal Disposable Income Growth (%)
6.2
2.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
$880
$882
$914
$938
$960
3.0
0.3
3.6
2.6
2.3
$62.7
$66.4
$70.9
$75.2
$79.1
2.4
5.8
6.8
6.1
5.2
BC Housing Outlook
MLS® Unit Sales
% change
MLS® Average Price
% change
Net Interprovincial Migration
% change
Unemployment (000s)
Average Weekly Wage
Weekly Wage Growth (%)
Retail Sales ($billions)
Retails Sales Growth (%)
113
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Lower Mainland/Southwest
MLS® Unit Sales
2015
Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
2016F
%
2017F
%
43,145
28.1
47,000
8.9
42,900
-8.7
Single Detached
17,375
23.6
19,200
10.5
17,200
-10.4
Apartment
17,706
32
19,600
10.7
17,700
-9.7
Townhouse
7,345
28.7
7,450
1.4
7,250
-2.7
20,055
33.5
24,300
21.2
21,300
-12.3
Single Detached
11,077
36.8
13,100
18.3
10,700
-18.3
Apartment
3,046
25.3
4,150
36.2
3,550
-14.5
Townhouse
4,586
31.4
5,600
22.1
4,900
-12.5
3,138
25.6
3,725
18.7
3,400
-8.7
1,810
24.8
2,150
18.8
2,030
-5.6
Apartment
322
29.3
390
21.1
340
-12.8
Townhouse
739
28.5
910
23.1
850
-6.6
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board
Chilliwack and District Real Estate Area
Single Detached
MLS® Average Price
Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
$
902,801
11.1
$
1,125,000
24.6
$
1,170,000
4
Single Detached
$
1,454,277
16.8
$
1,890,000
30
$
1,980,000
4.8
Apartment
$
481,399
5
$
559,000
16.1
$
574,000
2.7
Townhouse
$
631,201
8.9
$
765,000
21.2
$
789,000
3.1
Fraser Valley Real Estate Board
$
577,507
11.5
$
710,000
22.9
$
747,000
5.2
Single Detached
$
720,788
12.1
$
915,000
26.9
$
980,000
7.1
Apartment
$
232,976
1.9
$
262,000
12.5
$
275,000
5
Townhouse
$
362,713
2.5
$
425,000
17.2
$
445,000
4.7
$
335,999
8.8
$
389,000
15.8
$
410,500
5.5
Single Detached
$
377,763
8.5
$
410,000
8.5
$
425,000
3.7
Apartment
$
147,281
1.7
$
159,000
8
$
165,000
3.8
Townhouse
$
270,503
5.9
$
288,000
6.5
$
296,200
2.8
Chilliwack and District Real Estate Area
Housing Starts
Vancouver CMA
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
20,863
8.6
24,880
19.3
23,600
-5.1
4,622
5.7
4,650
0.6
4,100
-11.8
16,241
9.5
20,230
24.6
19,500
-3.6
Abbotsford CMA
806
61.5
1,085
34.6
840
-22.6
Single
393
56.6
435
10.7
410
-5.7
Mulitple
413
66.5
650
57.4
430
-33.8
631
12.9
670
6.2
660
-1.5
Single
298
6.4
340
14.1
300
-11.8
Mulitple
333
19.4
330
-0.9
360
9.1
Single
Mulitple
Chilliwack CA
2 14
%
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Va n co u ve r I sla n d / Co ast
MLS® Unit Sales
2015
Victoria Real Estate Board
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
7,868
23.5
8,960
13.9
8,200
-8.5
Single Detached
4,587
20.1
5,200
13.4
4,800
-7.7
Apartment
2,059
26.6
2,450
19
2,260
-7.8
842
17.6
1,050
24.7
900
-14.3
8,320
15.8
9,700
16.6
9,400
-3.1
5,555
14
6,500
17
6,350
-2.3
Townhouse
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
Single Detached
Apartment
761
37.4
880
15.6
820
-6.8
Townhouse
532
23.4
700
31.6
650
-7.1
Powell River and Sunshine Coast Real
Estate Board
381
18.0
380
-0.3
370
-2.6
Single Detached
322
25.8
325
0.9
315
-3.1
Condo
44
2.3
45
2.3
40
-11.1
Single Family Mobile
15
-37.5
10
-33.3
15
50
MLS® Average Price
Victoria Real Estate Board
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
$
521,616
5.1
$
602,000
15.4
$
618,200
2.7
Single Detached
$
643,365
7
$
740,000
15
$
772,000
4.3
Apartment
$
326,472
0.5
$
342,000
4.8
$
352,000
2.9
Townhouse
$
422,014
1.5
$
459,000
8.8
$
478,000
4.1
$
339,835
3.4
$
373,000
9.8
$
384,000
2.9
Single Detached
$
381,479
5.9
$
422,100
10.6
$
436,000
3.3
Apartment
$
192,203
-1.8
$
199,000
3.5
$
203,800
2.4
Townhouse
$
247,471
-1.2
$
264,700
7
$
270,500
2.2
Powell River and Sunshine Coast Real
Estate Board
$
246,691
5.7
$
264,200
7.1
$
274,000
3.7
Single Detached
$
268,301
2.8
$
288,100
7.4
$
298,500
3.6
Condo
$
148,021
-10.5
$
152,000
2.7
$
158,000
3.9
Single Family Mobile
$
51,687
-16.4
$
55,000
6.4
$
57,500
4.5
Vancouver Island Real Estate Board
Housing Starts
Victoria CMA
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
2,008
52.7
2,185
8.8
1,925
-11.9
687
24.7
715
4.1
650
-9.1
1,321
72.9
1,470
11.3
1,275
-13.3
850
27.8
805
-5.3
675
-16.1
Single
384
20.8
420
9.4
395
-5.9
Mulitple
466
34.3
385
-17.4
280
-27.3
Single
Mulitple
Nanaimo CMA
115
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Thompson Okanagan
MLS® Unit Sales
2015
2016F
%
2017F
%
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board
7,988
6.2
8,800
10.2
8,250
-6.3
Single Detached
4,291
3
4,700
9.5
4,450
-5.3
Apartment
1,356
12.3
1,600
18
1,500
-6.3
Townhouse
1,242
8
1,400
12.7
1,310
-6.4
2,023
15.1
2,200
8.7
2,050
-6.8
1,084
11.1
1,160
7
1,085
-6.5
Apartment
336
12.8
400
19
355
-11.3
Townhouse
242
26
250
3.3
240
-4
South Okanagan Real Estate Board
Single Detached
Kamloops and District Real Estate Area
2,574
13.9
2,825
9.8
2,530
-10.4
1,842
12.5
2,025
9.9
1,850
-8.6
Apartment
198
36.6
220
11.1
190
-13.6
Townhouse
298
10.8
325
9.1
280
-13.8
Single Detached
MLS® Average Price
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board
$
408,394
2.7
$
445,300
9
$
467,500
5
Single Detached
$
485,022
4.2
$
535,000
10.3
$
564,000
5.4
Apartment
$
248,618
5
$
278,800
12.1
$
291,000
4.4
Townhouse
$
340,323
3
$
361,500
6.2
$
378,000
4.6
$
327,243
6.1
$
345,700
5.6
$
358,400
3.7
Single Detached
$
422,547
12.5
$
447,500
5.9
$
466,000
4.1
Apartment
$
227,088
0.1
$
234,000
3
$
239,000
2.1
Townhouse
$
266,276
14
$
278,400
4.6
$
288,000
3.4
$
326,398
2.6
$
336,500
3.1
$
343,700
2.1
Single Detached
$
370,315
3.7
$
381,500
3
$
389,800
2.2
Apartment
$
189,562
-2.9
$
192,900
1.8
$
195,500
1.3
Townhouse
$
281,044
1
$
282,400
0.5
$
287,000
1.6
South Okanagan Real Estate Board
Kamloops and District Real Estate Area
Housing Starts
Kelowna CMA
2015
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
1,280
-2.4
1,555
21.5
1,230
Single
628
-9.6
600
-4.5
550
-8.3
Mulitple
652
5.8
955
46.5
680
-28.8
253
39.8
270
6.7
255
-5.6
Single
143
-1.4
150
4.9
125
-16.7
Mulitple
110
205.6
120
9.1
130
8.3
523
1.0
525
0.4
450
-14.3
Single
296
5.3
235
-20.6
200
-14.9
Mulitple
227
-4.2
290
27.8
250
-13.8
Penticton CMA
Kamloops CA
2 16
%
-20.9
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Kootenay
MLS® Unit Sales
2015
Kootenay Real Estate Board
Single Detached
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
2,499
-1.5
2,650
6
2,500
-5.7
1,550
3.6
1,650
6.5
1,550
-6.1
Apartment
176
-30.7
185
5.1
175
-5.4
Townhouse
178
-3.3
185
3.9
180
-2.7
MLS® Average Price
2015
Kootenay Real Estate Board
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
$
275,349
-0.9
279,500
1.5
286,000
2.3
Single Detached
$
277,911
-1.8
282,000
1.5
289,100
2.5
Apartment
$
152,589
-15.3
155,000
1.6
158,000
1.9
Townhouse
$
243,033
-8
245,000
0.8
253,000
3.3
Housing Starts
2015
Cranbrook CMA
Single
Mulitple
%
2016F
%
2017F
%
51
-40.7
60
17.6
55
-8.3
48
-44.2
55
14.6
40
-27.3
3
n/a
5
66.7
15 200.0
Northern BC
MLS® Unit Sales
2015
BC Northern Real Estate Board
Single Detached
3.0
$
4,400
1.4
2,407
-8.5
$
2,460
2.2
$
2,500
1.6
694
1.0
725
4.5
710
-2.1
312
-16.6
$
290
-7.1
$
315
8.6
262
-18.4
$
235
-10.3
$
250
6.4
2015
%
$
264,696
1
Single Detached
$
281,283
1
House with Acreage
$
330,732
0.4
$
269,494
$
288,439
Single Detached
Housing Starts
Prince George CMA
%
4,340
Single Detached
Northern Lights Area
2017F
$
Northern Lights Area
1
%
-6.5
1
Kootenay Real Estate Board
2016F
4,214
House with Acreage
MLS® Average Price
%
2015
2016F
$
%
267,000
0.9
282,300
0.4
$
325,000
-1.7
-4.9
$
240,100
-1.5
$
280,000
%
2016F
2017F
272,500
2.1
288,000
2
$
331,000
1.8
-10.9
$
241,000
0.4
-2.9
$
283,000
1.1
%
$
%
2017F
%
204
29.1
255
25
180
-29.4
169
27.1
115
-32
110
-4.3
35
40
140
300
70
-50
83
-72.1
45
-45.8
50
11.1
Single
38
-32.1
30
-21.1
30
0
Mulitple
45
-81.3
15
-66.7
20
33.3
Single
Mulitple
Dawson Creek CMA
1. The former Northern Lights Real Estate Board merged with the South Okanagan Real Estate Board
117
BCREA HOUSING FORECAST
June 2016
Housing Forecast Summary — Second Quarter
Unit Sales
Board Area
Victoria
Vancouver Island
Powell River Sunshine Coast
Greater Vancouver
Fraser Valley
Chilliwack and District
Kamloops and District
Okanagan Mainline
South Okanagan*
Northern Lights
Kootenay
BC Northern
BC Total
2015
7,868
23.5%
8,320
15.8%
381
18%
43,145
28.1%
20,055
33.5%
3,138
25.6%
2,574
13.9%
7,988
6.2%
2,023
15.1%
312
-16.6%
2,499
-1.5%
4,214
-6.5%
102,517
22.0%
Average MLS® Price ($)
2016F
8,960
13.9%
9,700
16.6%
380
-0.3%
47,000
8.9%
24,300
21.2%
3,725
18.7%
2,825
9.8%
8,800
10.2%
2,200
8.7%
290
-7.1%
2,650
6%
4,340
3%
115,170
12.3%
2017F
8,200
-8.5%
9,400
-3.1%
370
-2.6%
42,900
-8.7%
21,300
-12.3%
3,400
-8.7%
2,530
-10.4%
8,250
-6.3%
2,050
-6.8%
315
8.6%
2,500
-5.7%
4,400
1.4%
105,615
-8.3%
2015
521,616
5.1%
$339,835
3.4%
$246,691
5.7%
902,801
11.1%
$577,507
11.5%
$335,999
8.8%
326,398
2.6%
$408,394
2.7%
$327,243
6.1%
$269,494
-4.9%
$275,349
-0.9%
$264,696
1%
636,600
12%
2016F
602,000
15.4%
$373,000
9.8%
$264,200
7.1%
1,125,000
24.6%
$710,000
22.9%
$389,000
15.8%
336,500
3.1%
$445,300
9%
$345,700
5.6%
$240,100
-10.9%
$279,500
1.5%
$267,000
0.9%
766,600
20.4%
2017F
618,200
2.7%
$384,000
2.9%
$274,000
3.7%
1,170,000
4%
$747,000
5.2%
$410,500
5.5%
343,700
2.1%
$467,500
5%
$358,400
3.7%
$241,000
0.4%
$286,000
2.3%
$272,500
2.1%
792,800
3.4%
NOTE: The Northern Lights Real Estate Board (NLREB) became part of the South Okanagan Real Estate Board (SOREB) on January 1, 2011.
*Excluding Northern Lights
BCREA Economics provides timely research, analysis and information on economic factors affecting British Columbia and its housing markets.
The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) is the
Send questions and comments about the Housing Forecast to:
professional association for more than 20,000 REALTORS® in BC,
Cameron Muir, Chief Economist,
[email protected]; 604.742.2780
focusing on provincial issues that impact real estate. Working with
the province’s 11 real estate boards, BCREA provides continuing
Brendon Ogmundson, Economist,
[email protected]; 604.742.2796
professional education, advocacy, economic research and
standard forms to help REALTORS® provide value for their clients.
Additional economics information is available on
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