SMIDE Symposium Program-3


SMIDE Symposium Program-3
M-Prime Centre for Disease Modelling
York University, Toronto
August 29th-31st, 2011
Symposium on Modelling and Informatics of
Disease and Environment (SMIDE)
Symposium Manual
Sponsored by:
M-Prime, CDM, and Fields Institute
280N York Lanes (See #24 on map)
Keele Campus, York University
4700 Keele St., Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3
Audio Video:
PC and data projector available
Executive Learning Centre at the
Schulich School of Business,
York University, Keele Campus
56 Fine Arts Road, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3
(See #42 on Map of Campus)
Page | 1 Welcome to the Symposium on Modelling and Informatics of Disease and Environment (SMIDE), a
series of invited talks, group discussions and informal collaborations.
Organizing Committee:
Prasanth Goswami
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation (CMMACS), India
Jianhong Wu (contact)
Mprime Centre for Disease Modelling at York University
Jörg Grigull
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University
Local Arrangements & Contacts:
Tara Fernandez
Centre for Disease Modelling, York University
Suite 5021 TEL Building
4700 Keele St.,Toronto, ON, M3J 1P3
Tel: 416-736-2100 ext.20710
Email: [email protected]
Symposium Goals
This symposium introduces the national capacity of both India and Canada in the areas of
critical importance to environment and vector-borne disease modeling: national priorities, disease
surveillance, data sharing and bioinformatics, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling. The
symposium will be organized in a relatively unstructured fashion, so each plenary and invited lecture
will be followed by a mediated group discussion. There will be less formal lectures than usual
workshops to allow participants to form groups to discuss potential collaborations.
Page | 2 Monday August 29th, 2011
Surveillance and modeling environmental impact on health
9-9:15 am
Welcome and introduction
9:15-10:15 am
Dr. Nicholas Ogden, Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious
Diseases (via teleconference)
"Wildlife disease: challenges, public health needs and modelling methods"
10:15-10:45 am
Dr. Hermann Eberl, University of Guelph
“On honeybees, varroa destructor and deadly diseases: a mathematical
10:45-11:15 am
11:15-11:45 am
Dr. Julien Arino, University of Manitoba
“A metapopulation model for the spread of malaria”
11:45-12:15 pm
Dr. Jane Heffernan, York University
"Modelling the Effects of Immunity"
12:15-1:30 pm
Lyme Disease Track
1:30-2:00 pm
Dr. Amy Greer, PHAC and Dalla Lana School of Public Health, U of T
“It’s Getting Hot Out There: Climate, Environment and Infectious Disease Risk”
2:00-2:30 pm
Dr. Yijun Lou and Dr. Xiaotian Wu, York University
“The Impact of Climate Warming on the Establishment of Lyme Disease tick
vector Ixodes scapularis”
2:30-3:00 pm
Dr. Patrick Leighton, University of Montreal
“Range expansion of the Lyme Disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada”
Group Discussion led by Dr. Amy Greer
3:30-3:45 pm
3:45-4:30 pm
Dr. K.V. Ramesh, CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer
Simulation, Bangalore, India
“Observed climate change and future climate projections over India”
6:30-9:30 pm
Page | 3 SMIDE Banquet Dinner at Black Creek Pioneer Village, semi-formal attire
Tuesday August 30th, 2011
Modeling capacity for disease control and emergency response
9-9:15 am
Welcome and Introduction
9:15-10:15 am
Dr. USN Murty, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (CSIR), Hyderabad,
“Assessment of Malaria incidence with reference to Climate Change: An Indian
10:15-10:30 am
10:30-11:30 am
Dr. P. Goswami, CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer
Simulation, Bangalore, India
“Quantitative Relation between Weather Variables and Malaria: A Case Study over
North East India”
11:30-12:00 pm
Dr. Dongmei Chen, Queen’s University
“Risk signals of an influenza pandemic caused by highly pathogenic avian
influenza subtype H5N1: Spatio-temporal perspectives”
12:00-1:00 pm
Mosquito and West Nile Virus Track
1:00-1:30 pm
Dr. Curtis Russell, Public Health Ontario
“West Nile virus in Ontario”
1:30-2:00 pm
Dr. Guihong Fan, York University
“Modeling and models for the dynamics of West Nile virus”
2:00-2:30 pm
Dr. Huaiping Zhu, York University
“Will Peel region have more culex pipiens/restuans next week?”
Group Discussion led by Dr. Huaiping Zhu
3:00-3:30 pm
3:30-4:00 pm
Dr. Srinivas Rao Mutheneni, Indian Institute of Chemical Technology
Hyderabad, India
“Impact of weather variables on infected vector mosquitoes of Japanese
encephalitis virus in Andhra Pradesh, India.
4:00-4:30 pm
Dr. Seyed Moghadas, York University
“How did the 2009 pandemic affect different age groups of Canadian First
Page | 4 Wednesday August 31st, 2011
Bioinformatics and in-hosting dynamics
All Day
Day for Collaborations
Meeting rooms/Offices available:
5021A Tel Building (YIHR)
5021C Tel Building (YIHR)
5021M Tel Building (YIHR)
Page | 5 Abstracts: Surveillance and modeling environmental impact on health
"Wildlife disease: challenges, public health needs and modelling methods"
Dr. Nicholas Ogden
Centre for Food-borne Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, PHAC Ottawa
On honeybees, varroa destructor and deadly diseases: a mathematical approach
Dr. Hermann Eberl
Professor, University of Guelph
The western honeybee is in trouble. In recent years beekeepers all over Europe and North America reported drastic,
unprecedented losses of colonies. Among the many stressors that were proposed, parasitic varroa mites have been
identified as one of the main culprits. These mites, in addition to being harmful to the bees themselves can carry man
different viruses. We present a simple model of the honeybee-varroa mite-acute bee paralysis virus complex, which we
study both with analytical and numerical methods.
A metapopulation model for the spread of malaria
Julien Arino
Professor, University of Manitoba
I will present a model for the spatio-temporal spread of malaria using a metapopulation framework. The model
incorporates transmission-blocking partial immunity in the human hosts, with recovered hosts still able to transmit the
parasites to vectors, albeit with lower probability. The model is shown to exhibit a backward bifurcation. Using type
reproduction numbers, the patches reservoir of infection are identified, allowing to pinpoint regions where interventions
will be most efficacious.
This is joint work with Arnaud Ducrot (Bordeaux) and Pascal Zongo (Ouagadougou).
"Modelling the Effects of Immunity"
Dr. Jane Heffernan
Professor, York University
Immunity, gained from infection or vaccination, affects the spread of disease and the success of some vaccination
programs. In this talk we will discuss the effects of prior immunity on pandemic influenza, measles outbreaks and herpes
Page | 6 Dr. Amy Greer
PHAC and Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto
Global climate change is inevitable — the combustion of fossil fuels has resulted in a build-up of greenhouse gases within
the atmosphere, causing unprecedented changes to the earth’s climate. The Fourth Assessment Report of the
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that North America will experience marked changes in weather patterns in
coming decades, including warmer temperatures and increased rainfall, summertime droughts and extreme weather
events. These events are likely to cause important changes in the incidence and distribution of infectious diseases,
including vectorborne and zoonotic diseases, water- and food-borne diseases and diseases with environmental reservoirs.
In this presentation, I will describe a case-crossover methodology to identify acute associations between environmental
exposures and infectious disease case occurrence and highlight how climate change predictions may influence historical
disease patterns in North America. I will also highlight opportunities and challenges for incorporating these environmental
risk data into mathematical models using a “One Health” framework. The significant global weather pattern changes
expected in the coming years require that the scientific community leverage existing tools, strengthen interdisciplinary
collaborations, and develop new methodologies to identify the range of possible disease outcomes that could be expected
under different climate scenarios. This understanding will allow us to optimize public health responses and mitigate
infectious disease risk especially in vulnerable populations.
The Impact of Climate Warming on the Establishment of Lyme Disease tick vector Ixodes scapularis
Dr. Yijun Lou and Dr. Xiaotian Wu
Postdocs, Centre for Disease Modelling, York University
A stage-structured periodic deterministic model is formulated to assess the climate warming impact on the tick ({\it
Ixodes scapularis}) population at Long Point, Ontario, Canada. The model is parametrized, and the tick development and
questing activity data are compiled from the laboratory and field experiments conducted in Canada. Mean monthly
temperatures of the study region are estimated for the two periods between 1961-1990 and 2000-2009, and some Fourier
series analysis is conducted to derive the season-based model coefficients by fitting the temperature and tick data. These
validated estimations provide the basis for our study using the deterministic model with periodic coefficients to describe
the influence of climate warming on the Lyme disease establishment in the considered region. The stage-structured
periodic deterministic model is then analyzed both analytically and numerically. The basic reproduction number for the
tick population, the number of new female adult ticks produced by an index female adult tick when there are no density
dependent constraints acting anywhere in the life cycle of the tick population, is derived. This number serves as a
threshold parameter for tick invasion: the tick is doomed to extinction when this number is less than unity; and the tick
can successfully invade into the study region and may stabilize at a positive seasonal equilibrium state when this number
is greater than one. Both temperatures and host densities influence the value of the basic reproduction number, thereby
influencing the risk of tick establishment in a habitat, specifically, climate warming promotes tick survival in favorable
habitats and affiliates tick invasion to previously non-endemic areas. Using the temperatures simulated by the third
generation coupled Canadian Global Climate Model (CGCM3) with emissions scenario `A2', the increase and pattern shift
of the tick population for three future periods 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, and thus the resultant Lyme risk are
predicted. This is joint work with Venkata R. Duvvuri, Nicholas H. Ogden and Jianhong Wu.
Range expansion of the Lyme Disease vector Ixodes scapularis in Canada
Page | 7 Patrick Leighton
Postdoc, University of Montreal
Over the past two decades Ixodes scapularis, the primary tick vector of Lyme disease in eastern North America, has
expanded its range northward from the USA to colonize new regions in southern Canada. Since 1990, ticks have been
collected across Canada and submitted to national authorities by veterinarians, medical practitioners, and the general
public, providing a unique picture of the northward spread of I. scapularis populations. We used this 19-year time series
to model the spread of I. scapularis in Canada in order to identify factors influencing the speed and direction of spread.
Our results point to both long-distance dispersal of ticks by migratory birds and local dispersal by resident hosts as
important mechanisms underlying patterns of range expansion for I. scapularis. Annual temperature (degree days) was the
most important determinant of environmental suitability for tick establishment, suggesting that tick range expansion may
be facilitated by climate warming. Model projections suggest that I. scapularis range will expand substantially in the
coming decade, resulting in a substantial increase in the human risk of Lyme disease with the proportion of the human
population of eastern Canada inhabiting areas with established tick populations increasing from approximately 20% in
2010 to over 80% by 2020. This first empirical model of I. scapularis range expansion provides an important estimate of
the relative influence of host dispersal mechanisms and habitat suitability on the process of tick invasion at the continental
scale, and a new tool to guide surveillance and focus interventions on the most critical areas.
Observed climate change and future climate projections over India
Dr. K.V. Ramesh
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Hyderabad, India
Changes in precipitation, temperature, and other environmental variables have both direct effects (through
drought, flood, and extreme weather events) and indirect effects (through changes in transmission and
outbreaks, particularly diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, rodents, or water) on human health. Quantification
of observed changes and estimates of future changes in climate variables like wind, rainfall, temperature,
humidity and etc., will be of helpful in identifying the regions which are vulnerable for transmission and
outbreak of infectious diseases. Here we present the past observed changes for the period 1981-2010 and
possible future changes for the next 100years. Initial study on past climate reveals that overall the number of
rainy days and its spatial extent is decreasing. The surface temperature shows both increasing and cooling
trends over India. The preliminary finding of future climate projections over India is also discussed.
Page | 8 Modeling capacity for disease control and emergency response
Assessment of Malaria incidence with reference to Climate Change: An Indian Scenario.
Prof USN Murty
Director Grade Scientist, Head Biology Division
CSIR-Indian Institute of Chemical Technology
According to WHO report (2010), 11 countries in the South-East Asia region 10 are endemic for malaria. Approximately
60% of the total population in the region is at some risk of malaria, with 20% at high risk. India contributes around 76%
of total malaria cases from this region. Malaria is major public health concerns in the North Eastern states of India, in
which Arunachal Pradesh (AP) is considered as highly endemic for malaria caused by both Plasmodium falciparum and
P. vivax. Studies on malaria in AP have been confined in this work chiefly for its vulnerability to Climate change.
Correlation between epidemiological and meteorological parameters in the region has been fortified through penetrative
analysis of the germane factors in the study zone. To design a forecasting model concentric to the endemicity of that
particular state, morbidity (malarial cases for the last six years) and Annual Parasite Index (API) have been deliberated to
represent the disease transmission trends. The commitment of temperature on parasite development and vector
density/population showing varied insecticide resistance has been entrenched. Another important climatic variable rainfall
is studied for its impact on API in India. Similarly wind strength versus malaria cases has been debated for the past five
decades in the country. Unifying all such analyses from various ends, a dynamic model is developed to predict the
epidemiological cases in 12 districts of Arunachal Pradesh of North East India which is one of the high endemic zones for
malaria in India. Although all the three weather variables: temperature, rainfall and humidity are known to play important
roles in vector genesis, simulation of epidemiology examined through this model with these weather variables showed
large differences from actual observations for certain districts. An analysis of simulation with humidity and rainfall
showed large errors and the best results were obtained with temperature only. The conception of this model is being
pursued further to enhance the precision of the simulations. The current model of malaria epidemiology of vector
population driven by weather variables can be used at short scales for outbreak forecast by using high resolution weather
monitoring and forecasts.
Quantitative Relation between Weather Variables and Malaria: A Case Study over North East India
Dr. Prasant Goswami
CSIR Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer Simulation, Bangalore, India
Page | 9 Risk signals of an influenza pandemic caused by highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1:
Spatio-temporal perspectives
Dr. Dongmei Chen
Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario
Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) subtype H5N1 is a trans-boundary animal disease that has crossed the animalhuman species barrier and caused a broad-scale impact on the poultry industry, wild bird population and human health in
the past decade. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of H5N1 outbreaks can provide visual clues to the dynamics of
disease spread and risk areas, thereby helping to improve the cost-effectiveness of planning and implementing the control
and prevention strategies. Previous studies only covered outbreaks in relatively short periods. This study described the
epidemic characteristics and investigated the temporal, spatial and space-time dynamic patterns of H5N1 outbreaks in
domestic poultry using a global database from December 2003 to December 2009. The analysis revealed two major
findings. First, the beginning date of epidemic wave was postponed, the epidemic duration was prolonged and the
magnitude of epidemic was
reduced over time, but the disease transmission cycle had not been efficiently interrupted. Second, two "hot spot" regions
of H5N1 outbreaks were identified: historically a well-known one in East and Southeast Asia and a newly emerged one in
the boundaries of Europe and Africa, where enhanced surveillance should be conducted, especially the newer "hot spot"
region. The risk of influenza pandemic from HPAI H5N1 remains high.
West Nile virus in Ontario
Dr. Curtis Russell
Program Consultant, Enteric, Zoonotic and Vector-Borne Diseases, Public Health Ontario
This presentation will cover a general introduction to West Nile Virus and its history in Ontario. We will
discuss Ontario's WNV mosquito surveillance program and how it relates to control activities conducted
around the province.
Modeling and models for the dynamics of West Nile virus
Dr. Guihong Fan
Postdoc, York University
There have been extensive modeling studies of the dynamics of West Nile virus since its first arrival in North America. In
this talk, I will present a summary of some modeling work on mosquito-borne diseases of the LAMPS working group. I
will focus on the following topics
1. Backward bifurcations, outbreak and initial ratio of the sizes of vector-mosquito and avian host;
2. Impact of temperature and Hopf bifurcations, the driven mechanisms of oscillations and multiple peaks of the infection;
3. Impact of avians species diversity and transmission;
4. Weather and environmental factors and their impact on mosquito abundance.
Page | 10 Will Peel region have more culex pipiens/restuans next week?
Dr. Huaiping Zhu
Professor, York University
Forecasting the vector mosquito abundance in a region is important and essential for the risk assessment, control and
prevention of mosquito-borne diseases. By using the data of the mosquito surveillance program of administrated by
Vector-borne Disease Unit, Infectious Diseases Branch of Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, Ontario, and the
historical weather data, we develop a preliminary version of the weather driven model for the West Nile virus transmitting
mosquitoes: culex pipiens/restuans. We carry out a case study of the mosquito abundance for the region of Peel. With the
weather driven model and the weather forecasting data for the following week, we can simulate and forecast the mosquito
abundance for the following week for the region. This is a joint work with Jiafeng Wang, Nicholas Ogden, Curtis Russell,
Paul Proctor and Kaz Higuchi.
Impact of weather variables on infected vector mosquitoes of Japanese encephalitis virus in Andhra
Pradesh, India
Dr. M. Srinivas Rao
Indian Institute of Chemical Technology (IICT), Hyderabad, India
Japanese encephalitis (JE) is endemic in Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh, India, where Culex tritaeniorhynchus and
Culex gelidus are reported as primary vectors for transmission of JE virus. A longitudinal study was carried out to assess
the seasonal pattern of Japanese encephalitis (JE) vector density and virus infection rates in different seasons. Climatic
attributes are more associated with relative mosquito abundance and transmission of mosquito borne infections in many
parts of the world, especially in warm and tropical climatic regions. In each geographic area, temperature and
precipitation are the two important variables for mosquito density, in conjunction with other seasonal factors for JE
epidemics. Various mosquito species like Culex gelidus and C. tritaeniorhynchus have been collected from study area.
High prevalence of Cx. gelidus (68.05%) was recorded in urban area whereas, Cx. tritaeniorhynchus (57.51%) was found
to be more in rural belts than urban sector. Climatic factors such as rainfall and temperature were found to be correlated
with the Per Man Hour (PMH) density, whereas the humidity was inversely correlated with mosquito density.
The field collected vectors were subjected for JE virus after dessication using ELISA method. Vector
susceptibility showed higher infection rate of 1.50 during the rainy and winter seasons, a lower minimum infection rate
(MIR) of 0.636 during summer for Culex tritaeniorhynchus. Similarly MIR in Culex gelidus was observed in rainy season
with an arithmetic mean of 2.488, 89.19 in winter and 0.65 during summer. From this study it is noticed that MIR of Cx.
gelidus and Cx. tritaeniorhynchus were modulated by various meteorological parameters. A systematic databse was
developed to get more usefriedly reports for control operations and modeling studies. Details are discussed.
Page | 11 How did the 2009 pandemic affect different age groups of Canadian First Nations?
Dr. Seyed Moghadas
M-Prime Centre for Disease Modelling, York University
One striking aspect of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Canada was its disproportionate impact on indigenous
populations. We show this impact through a comparative analysis of age-standardized ratios of infection and
hospitalization between First Nation and non-First Nation populations in the province of Manitoba, Canada. We highlight
the importance of demographic variables and health disparities in the variability of disease incidence in different
geographic locations.
Page | 12 Workshop Participants
First Name Last Name Institution Email 1 Tahmina Akhter Ryerson University [email protected] 2 Julien Arino University of Manitoba [email protected] 3 Dongmei Chen Queen’s University [email protected] 4 Michael Chen York University [email protected] 5 Yuming Chen Wilfred Laurier University [email protected] 6 Hana Dobrovolny Ryerson University [email protected] 7 Yimin Du York University [email protected] 8 Venkata Duuvuri [email protected] 9 Hermann Eberl PHO-­‐Public Health Laboratory Toronto University of Guelph 10 Guihong Fan York University [email protected] 11 Paul Gordon University of Guelph [email protected] 12 Prasant Goswami 13 Amy Greer CSIR Centre for Mathematical [email protected] Modelling and Computer Simulation Hospital for Sick Kids [email protected] 14 Lina Hao York University [email protected] 15 Jane Heffernan York University [email protected] 16 Amy Hurford [email protected] 17 Majid Jaberi Fields Institute, York University, University of Toronto York University 18 Manisha Kulkarni Public Health Agency of Canada 19 Patrick Leighton University of Montreal manisha.kulkarni@phac– [email protected] 20 Yijun Lou York University [email protected] 21 Neal Madras York University [email protected] 22 Sharmistha Mishra St. Michael’s Hospital [email protected] 23 Seyed Moghadas York University [email protected] 24 USN Murty Biology Division IICT [email protected] 25 Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni [email protected] 26 Nicholas Ogden Indian Institute of Chemical Technology Public Health Agency of Canada 27 Kazi Rahman University of Guelph [email protected] Page | 13 [email protected] [email protected] Nicholas.Ogden@phac-­‐ 28 K.V. Ramesh [email protected] Ratti Indian Institute of Chemical Technology University of Guelph 29 Vardayani 30 Curtis Russell Public Health Agency of Ontario [email protected] 31 Chunhua Shan York University [email protected] 32 Xiangsheng Wang York University [email protected] 33 Jianhong Wu York University [email protected] 34 Xiaotian Wu York University [email protected] 35 Yanyu Xiao University of Western Ontario [email protected] 36 Ping Yan Public Health Agency of Canada Ping.Yan@phac-­‐ 37 Yong Yang York University [email protected] 38 Huaiping Zhu York University [email protected] 39 Hossein Zivari-­‐Piran York University [email protected] Page | 14 [email protected] Page | 15 TORONTO: YorkU On Campus
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Page | 16 FOOD: On Campus (Number corresponds to Campus Map)
Berries and Blooms (York Lanes)- Vegetarian (#24)
(416) 663-0033
Executive Dining Room (Schulich)- Formal Dining (#42)
Falafel Hut Village (York Lanes)- Middle Eastern (#24)
(416) 736-5767
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La Prep (York Lanes)- Soup and Sandwich (#24)
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Mangia Mangia Italian Eatery (York Lanes)- Italian (#24)
(416) 736-9484
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(416) 877-6142
Off Campus
Thai Bamboo (2150 Steeles Ave. West at Steele ave. & Keele st.) (416) 761-7598
Genji Sushi (Japanese) 2899 Steeles Ave. West
(416) 667-0867
Tashkent Restaurant (Uzbekistanian Cuisine) 800 Petrolia Rd.
(416) 667-0737
Coconuts Restaurant and Lounge (Caribbean) 2180 Steeles Ave.W (905) 532-9594
Black Creek Pioneer Village:
(416) 736-1733
Tait Mckenzie Gym :
(416) 736-2100 ext. 55185
The Rexall Centre :
(416) 665-9777
Black Creek Summer Music Festival
York Observatory (open Wed. from 9-11pm)
Safeway tours has a bus departing from Jane St. and Wilson Ave. (at the Coffee Time).
A 12 minute cab ride from York University
Cost: $30 return
Departs at: 9:05am, 10:00am, 11:00am, 12:00pm,
Leaves Niagara: 4:30pm, 5:30pm, 6:30pm, 8:00pm, 9:30pm
1000 Murray Ross Parkway, M3J 2P3
Monday August 29th, 2011 from 6:30-9:30pm
Dress Code: Semi-formal Attire
Cash Bar available on premises
Black Creek Pioneer Village is a 15 minute walk from the symposium venue.
Carpooling can be arranged with other guests. Page | 18