FINAL REPORT - Brecksville Broadview Heights City School District

Transcription

FINAL REPORT
Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District
Enrollment Projections Update
November 20, 2015
REPORT
INTRODUCTION
Based on a request from the Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District, FutureThink was
contracted to develop enrollment projections for the next 10 years.
This report contains ten-year enrollment projections, which were developed for the Brecksville-Broadview
Heights City School District by analyzing the following data:
Live birth data
Historical enrollment
Non-public school enrollment
Community demographics
Housing information
The projections presented in this report are meant to serve as a planning tool for the future and represent
the most likely direction of the District.
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NATIONAL & OHIO TRENDS IN ENROLLMENT
Tracing the landscape of the country’s public
school enrollment back over the past seventy
years reveals demographic, economic, and
social changes. The United States as a whole
continues to undergo major shifts in public
student enrollment. The baby boom of the late
1940s and 50s was followed by the baby bust of
the 1960s and 70s. An “echo” baby boom
occurred in the 1980s, which then was followed
by the echo baby bust from 1990 to 2000.
There was a slight uptick from 2000 to 2010.
Since 2011, the total number of births has been
relatively flat.
With the live birth rate, there was
an increase for the first time in
several years in 1998. Other
increases occurred in 2000, 2006,
and 2007. Since 2007, the birth
rate has resumed a descending
pattern, reaching an all-time low
in 2013.
Ohio has experienced a similar trend in live births as seen around the country. Live birth counts increased
in 2000. A descending pattern resumed in 2001 with a slight stabilization from 2002 to 2005. Births
increased slightly again in 2006 and 2007 but then declined to an all-time low of 134,440 in 2012. In 2013,
there was an increase, but preliminary counts for 2014 show another decrease.
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In addition, to births dropping in Ohio, the state is also aging. The median age in 2014 was 39.5 years of
age while the national median age is 37.6 years. In 2010, the median age in Ohio was 38.3 years.
In 2012-13, approximately 49.8 million students were enrolled in grades PreK-12 in the United States.
From 2000-01 to 2012-13, enrollment increased by 2.6 million students. Overall, enrollment is projected
to increase by approximately 6 percent by the 2024-25 school year.
The figure below illustrates the projected change in PreK-12 public school enrollment from the 2012-13 to
the 2024-25 school year. Growth is expected to continue primarily in the southeast and west. Ohio is
projected to experience a decrease of less than 5 percent.
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data CCD),"State Nonfiscal Survey of Public
Elementary/Secondary Education," 2012-13; and Public State Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Model: 1980–2024. See Digest of Education Statistics
2014, table 203.20.
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In Ohio, enrollment has declined steadily for both public and non-public school enrollment. From 200405 to 2014-15, public school enrollment declined by over 124,000 students or approximately 7 percent
statewide.
Ohio Public School Enrollment
2004-05 - 2014-15
Year
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
2014-15
October Headcount*
1,892,490
1,880,426
1,872,435
1,862,582
1,852,542
1,844,447
1,832,832
1,820,312
1,811,532
1,806,267
1,767,716
Source: Ohio Department of Education
*includes grades K-12 and ungraded
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From 2003-04 to 2013-14, private school enrollment has declined by approximately 49,000 students or
26 percent. Enrollment totals for 2014-15 were not available.
Ohio Chartered Non-Public School Enrollment
2003-04 - 2013-14
Year
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
2013-14
October ADM*
222,830
213,312
207,054
204,402
200,598
195,343
187,994
181,420
178,702
176,166
173,966
*includes grades K-12
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Out of 610 school districts, only 94 gained enrollment from the 2006-07 to the 2014-15 school year.
Approximately 84% of school districts lost enrollment over this time period. Approximately 34% of these
districts lost less than 10 percent.
Districts with the biggest loss of students were urban school districts.
For those districts that gained enrollment, 54% increased by less than 5 percent. Of the 10 districts with
the greatest increase in students, eight are located in Central Ohio, and most are considered suburban
districts.
Looking at the change since 2010-11 to 2014-15, 72 districts (12%) increased in enrollment, and 538
decreased (88%). Of the districts that lost enrollment, 65% declined less than 10 percent.
Districts with the biggest losses were still primarily the urban school districts.
For those districts that gained enrollment since 2010-11, 85% increased by less than 10 percent. Of the
10 districts with the greatest increase in students, 8 are located in Central Ohio, and most are considered
suburban districts.
Analyzing enrollment from a county perspective, only 3 of the 88 counties in Ohio gained enrollment from
2006-07 to 2014-15.
County
Delaware
Warren
Fairfield
Percentage Gain
36.57%
4.95%
0.75%
Cuyahoga County saw a decline of 17.56%, the ninth largest decrease. Fifty-two percent of the counties
(46) experienced a decline of greater than 10 percent. A map illustrating the gain/loss for each county is
on the following page.
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ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHODOLOGIES
When projecting future enrollments, it is vital to track the number of births, the patterns of enrollment,
the amount of new housing activity, and the change in household composition.
In addition, any of the following factors could cause a significant change in projected student enrollments:
Boundary adjustments
New school openings
Changes/additions in program offerings
Preschool programs
Change in grade configuration
Interest rates/unemployment shifts
Magnet/charter/private school opening or closure
Zoning changes
Unplanned new housing activity
Planned, but not built, housing
Obviously, certain factors can be gauged and planned for far better than others. For instance, it may be
relatively straightforward to gather housing data from local builders regarding the total number of lots in
a planned subdivision and calculate the potential student yield. However, planning for changes in the
unemployment rate, and how these may either boost or reduce public school enrollment, proves more
difficult. In any case, it is essential to gather a wide variety of information in preparation for producing
enrollment projections.
When looking ahead at a school district’s enrollment over the next two, five, or ten years, it is helpful to
approach the process from a global perspective. For example: How many new homes have been
constructed each year? How many births have occurred each year in relation to the resident population?
Is housing experiencing a turnover – if so, what is the composition of families moving in/out? Are more
or less students attending private school or being home-schooled? What new educational policies are in
place now that could affect student enrollment figures?
The data sets generated from questions such as these have led to the development of general
methodologies to project future student enrollments. They are as follows:
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Cohort Survival Method
A cohort is a group of persons [in this case, students]. The cohort survival projection methodology uses
previous live birth data and historical student enrollments to “age” a known population or cohort
throughout the school grades. For instance, a cohort begins when a group of kindergarteners enrolls in
grade K and moves to first grade the following year, second grade the next year, and so on.
TIME
100
Kindergartener
s
105
1st Graders
110
2nd Graders
A “survival ratio” is developed to track how this group of students grew or shrunk in number as they moved
through the grade levels. By determining survival ratios for each grade transition [i.e., 1st to 2nd grade]
over a ten-year period of time, patterns emerge and projection ratios can be developed to be used as a
multiplier.
For example, if student enrollment has consistently increased from the 8th to the 9th grade over the past
ten years, the survival ratios for each year would be greater than 100 percent. Through analysis of the
survival ratios, the projection ratio is determined and is multiplied by the current 8th grade to develop a
projection for next year’s 9th grade.
This methodology can be carried through to develop ten years of projection figures. Because there is not
a grade cohort to follow for students coming into kindergarten, live birth counts are used to develop a
survival ratio. Babies born five years previous to the kindergarten class are compared in number, and a
ratio can be developed to project future kindergarten enrollments.
The cohort survival method is useful in areas where population is stable [relatively flat, growing steadily,
or declining steadily], and where there have been no significant fluctuations in enrollment, births, and
housing patterns from year to year.
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Housing
Enrollment projections can also be determined by analyzing the housing data for the areas that make up
a school district. Yield factors can be established by comparing the historic change in enrollment from
year to year divided by the total number of building or occupancy permits issued. For example, if student
enrollment has increased by approximately 100 students each year and approximately 200 building
permits have been issued each year for the past ten years, then the yield factor would be approximately
.5 students per building permit.
Housing Permits
Issued
Change in
enrollment
Once yield factors are established, the number of new students per year can be estimated by multiplying
the yield factor by the number of projected new housing units. This method is effective when the rate of
kindergarten enrollment far exceeds the live birth counts.
If housing demolitions are occurring in a district, these must also be taken into account. For instance, if
housing demolitions/withdrawals have increased rapidly over recent years while new housing starts have
remained relatively constant over many years, the conclusion may be that some of the new housing starts
will simply be replacements for the families displaced by the demolitions. Of course, housing value and
household composition would need to be further analyzed to confirm that this is indeed the case. It is
possible that enrollment may remain flat or decline even though there is new housing occurring in the
area.
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Land-Saturation Analysis
Housing data also drives the land-saturation analysis enrollment methodology. In areas where there is a
high rate of development and the future development patterns in the area are clear, a “build-out” scenario
can be developed. The scenario takes into consideration the remaining acreage to be developed, planned
rate of completion, zoning policies, density per acre, type of housing, and ratios of school-age children per
household type. This method is particularly useful in areas experiencing rapid growth.
School District
Proposed
Housing
Proposed
Housing
Industrial
Existing
Housing
Existing
Housing
Proposed
Housing
Geographic Information Systems
While not a methodology, the need for better tools and easier manipulation of data has led to a new
industry standard in planning – GIS [Geographic Information Systems]. GIS technology allows school
districts to quickly analyze countless data sets including birth data, housing information, and enrollment
statistics.
When paired with enrollment projections, GIS becomes an invaluable information-management and
decision-making tool. Often, county or city offices are already implementing GIS technology and data can
be shared and expanded among these organizations in the district. GIS tables and maps are included
within this report illustrating population, age, and income estimates and projections.
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HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT
Over the past ten years, student enrollment in the Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District has
decreased by 776 students in grades Pre-K – 12. Total enrollment for the 2015-16 school year is 3,948
students.
The following tables illustrate the District’s enrollment history from 2006-07 through 2015-16.
Brecksville-Broadview Heights School District
Historical Enrollment
Grade
Pre-K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Pre-K - 12 Total
Ungraded
Grade 23
Grand Total
2006-07
48
228
299
324
332
340
377
383
400
377
430
407
372
407
4,724
0
0
4,724
2007-08
49
229
311
270
332
356
341
357
397
405
409
402
433
406
4,697
1
0
4,698
2008-09
67
261
251
326
271
341
367
342
371
406
417
418
389
423
4,650
4
0
4,654
2009-10
54
250
269
256
335
282
343
370
347
370
415
413
418
377
4,499
9
0
4,508
2010-11
63
222
266
284
274
346
286
357
366
348
366
414
414
413
4,419
10
0
4,429
2011-12
57
220
233
278
291
283
350
309
362
369
367
356
413
417
4,305
10
0
4,315
2012-13
64
206
245
238
289
303
287
350
315
370
364
365
361
408
4,165
8
0
4,173
2013-14
81
216
251
245
293
304
295
353
315
361
366
365
356
407
4,208
0
0
4,208
2014-15
54
234
248
268
258
261
301
321
307
365
314
361
364
362
4,018
0
0
4,018
2015-16
55
215
251
260
266
264
263
317
328
307
377
313
361
365
3,942
2
4
3,948
2012-13
1,042
590
1,035
1,498
4,165
8
0
4,173
2013-14
1,086
599
1,029
1,494
4,208
0
0
4,208
2014-15
1,062
562
993
1,401
4,018
0
0
4,018
2015-16
1,047
527
952
1,416
3,942
2
4
3,948
Source: Brecksville-Broadview Heights School District
Historical Enrollment by Grade Group
Grade
Pre-K - 3
4-5
6-8
9 - 12
Pre-K - 12 Total
Ungraded
Grade 23
Grand Total
2006-07
1,231
717
1,160
1,616
4,724
0
0
4,724
2007-08
1,191
697
1,159
1,650
4,697
1
0
4,698
2008-09
1,176
708
1,119
1,647
4,650
4
0
4,654
2009-10
1,164
625
1,087
1,623
4,499
9
0
4,508
2010-11
1,109
632
1,071
1,607
4,419
10
0
4,429
2011-12
1,079
633
1,040
1,553
4,305
10
0
4,315
Source: Brecksville-Broadview Heights School District
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The following graph illustrates the District’s Pre-K – 12 enrollment history from 2006-07 through 2015-16.
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In January 2013, FutureThink provided an enrollment projection report. The following table illustrates the
difference between the actual and projected enrollment for the 2015-16 school year. The 2015-16
projection is a three-year projection and is within less than 2 percent of the actual enrollment or 65
students.
Actual vs. Projected Enrollment (January 2013 Report)
2015-16
Grade
Actual
2015-16 EP Difference
Percentage
Pre-K
55
51
4
7.27%
K
215
204
11
5.12%
1
251
241
10
3.98%
2
260
256
4
1.54%
3
266
247
19
7.14%
4
264
275
-11
-4.17%
5
263
260
3
1.14%
6
317
313
4
1.26%
7
328
320
8
2.44%
8
307
302
5
1.63%
9
377
361
16
4.24%
10
313
319
-6
-1.92%
11
361
371
-10
-2.77%
12
365
356
9
2.47%
Pre-K - 12 Total
3,942
3,876
66
1.67%
Ungraded
6
7
-1
-16.67%
Grand Total
3,948
3,883
65
1.65%
Source: BBH City School District, FutureThink
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COMMUNITY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT
In Ohio, community school enrollment has increased dramatically over the last decade. From 2005-06 to
2014-15, enrollment has increased by over 72% from 72,061 students in 305 community schools to
124,043 students in 381 community schools. From 2013-14 to 2014-15, there was a slight drop in
enrollment and number of schools.
Ohio
Community School Enrollment (Pre-K - 12)
Grade
Grand Total
2005-06
72,064
2006-07
76,932
2007-08
82,643
2008-09
88,536
2009-10
93,623
2010-11
99,878
2011-12
108,239
2012-13
117,473
2013-14
129,505
2014-15
124,043
2011-12
355
2012-13
367
2013-14
395
2014-15
381
includes ungraded students
Ohio
Number of Community Schools
Grade
Grand Total
2005-06
305
2006-07
314
2007-08
325
2008-09
332
2009-10
323
2010-11
341
Since 2006-07, the number of Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District students attending
community schools has fluctuated between 33 and 58 students.
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LIVE BIRTH DATA
Utilization of live birth data is recommended when projecting future kindergarten enrollments as it
provides a helpful overall trend. The live birth counts are used in determining a birth-to-kindergarten
survival ratio. This ratio identifies the percentage of children born in a representative area who attend
kindergarten in the District five years later. The survival ratios for birth-to-kindergarten as well as grades
1-12 can be found later in this report.
The Ohio Department of Health [ODH] data warehouse provides information about live birth events for
Ohio residents. Information about events occurring outside of Ohio to Ohio residents is included.
Information about events occurring inside Ohio to non-Ohio residents is not included.
Data is arranged by the residence of the mother. For example, if a mother lives in Powell, Delaware County
but delivers her baby in Columbus, Franklin County, the birth is counted in Powell, Delaware County.
The number of live births is recorded by:
State
County
City/Town
Census Tract
Zip Code
Address [not available to the public]
Live birth counts are different from live birth rates. The live birth count is the actual number of live births.
A birth rate is the number of births per 1,000 women in a specified population group. Birth rates are
provided for counties only and for 9 age groups from 10-14 years to 45+ years.
Ohio has experienced a similar trend in
live births as seen around the country.
Live birth counts increased in 2000. A
descending pattern resumed in 2001
with a slight stabilization from 2002 to
2005. Births increased slightly again in
2006 and 2007 but then declined to an
all-time low of 134,440 in 2012. In 2013,
there was an increase, but preliminary
counts for 2014 show another decrease.
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The following table and graph include the live birth counts for zip codes 44133, 44141, and 44147.
Live Birth Count by Zip Code
1999-2013
Year
44133
44141
44147
Total # of
Live Births
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013*
270
305
294
274
251
275
278
272
275
246
251
259
222
240
221
119
125
131
95
116
109
84
91
115
100
108
79
106
88
86
188
179
199
157
202
199
198
224
232
210
205
173
204
181
176
577
609
624
526
569
583
560
587
622
556
564
511
532
509
483
Source: Ohio Department of Health, Statistical Analysis Unit
*preliminary
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DEMOGRAPHICS
The Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District is comprised of Brecksville, Broadview Heights, and
North Royalton in Cuyahoga County. General demographic data is included in the following tables for the
areas located completely or partially in the District.
General Demographic Information
Per Capita Income
Median Household Income
Persons Below Poverty
Cuyahoga County
$27,423
$43,804
18.3%
State of Ohio
$26,046
$48,308
15.8%
Source: US Census, American Community Survey, 2013 5-Year Estimates
Total Population
2000 Census
Cuyahoga County
Brecksville city
Broadview Heights city
North Royalton city
2010 Census
1,393,978
13,382
15,967
28,648
1,280,122
13,656
19,400
30,444
Source: ODOD Policy Research & Strategic Planning Office, August 2011
Also included are block group estimates and projections provided by ESRI. ESRI uses a time series of
estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau that includes the latest estimates and inter-censual estimates
adjusted for error of closure. The Census Bureau’s time series is consistent, but testing has revealed
improved accuracy by using a variety of sources to track county population trends.
ESRI also employs a time series of building permits and housing starts plus residential deliveries. Data
sources are integrated and then analyzed by Census Block Groups.
Sources of data include:
Supplementary Surveys of the Census Bureau
Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Local Area Unemployment Statistics
BLS Occupational Employment Statistics
InfoUSA
U.S. Bureau of the Census’ Current Population Survey
National Planning Association Data Service
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Below is a list of definitions as they appear on the U.S. Census Bureau website, to aid in interpretation of
the following tables and maps.
Household:
A household includes all the people who occupy a housing unit as their usual place of residence.
Average family size:
A measure obtained by dividing the number of members of families by the total number of families (or
family householders).
Family household (Family):
A family includes a householder and one or more people living in the same household who are related to
the householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. All people who are related to the householder are
regarded as members of his or her family. A family household may contain people not related to the
householder, but those people are not included as part of the householder’s family in census tabulations.
Thus, the number of family households is equal to the number of families, but family households may
include more members than do families. A household can contain only one family for purposes of census
tabulations. Not all households contain families since a household may comprise a group of unrelated
people or one person living alone.
Householder:
The person, or one of the people, in whose name the home is owned, being bought, or rented. If there is
no such person present, any household member 15 years old and over can serve as the householder for the
purposes of the census. Two types of householders are distinguished: a family householder and a
nonfamily householder. A family householder is a householder living with one or more people related to
him or her by birth, marriage, or adoption. The householder and all people in the household related to him
are family members. A nonfamily householder is a householder living alone or with nonrelatives only.
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The following tables illustrate the current estimates and 5-year population projections based on block
groups that comprise the state and school district, indicating areas of current and projected growth. The
tables have been developed to determine selected age group projections and projections for household
income, family size, and total households.
The total population in the State of Ohio is 11,609,946. This population is projected to increase by 122,243
people, or approximately 1% over a 5-year period.
The 0-18 year-old population in the State currently totals 2,730,087. This population is projected to
decrease by 27,127 children, or 1 percent.
The median age is projected to increase by 1.8% from 39.6 to 40.3 years of age.
State of Ohio
Total Population
Age 0-4
Age 5-9
Age 10-14
Age 15-18
Total Age 0-18
Median Age
2015 Estimates
2020 Projections
Change 2015-20 Change 2015-20 (%)
11,609,946
11,732,189
122,243
1.1%
686,128
678,812
-7,316
-1.1%
714,217
693,271
-20,946
-2.9%
739,287
740,060
773
0.1%
590,455
590,817
362
0.1%
2,730,087
2,702,960
-27,127
-1.0%
39.6
40.3
0.7
1.8%
Source: ESRI
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The total population in the District is 26,808. This population is projected to decrease by 315 people, or
approximately 1% over a 5-year period. The 0-18 year-old population in the District currently totals 6,078.
This population is projected to decrease by 541 people, or approximately 9 percent. The median age is
projected to increase by approximately 3%, from 46.6 to 47.8 years of age.
Total Population
Age 0-4
Age 5-9
Age 10-14
Age 15-18
Total Age 0-18
Median Age
2015 Estimates 2020 Projections Change 2015-20 Change 2015-20 (%)
26,808
26,493
-315
-1.2%
1,099
1,058
-41
-3.7%
1,434
1,295
-139
-9.7%
1,933
1,718
-215
-11.1%
1,612
1,466
-146
-9.1%
6,078
5,537
-541
-8.9%
46.6
47.8
1.2
2.6%
Source: ESRI
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Median and average household incomes in the State are both projected to increase by approximately 15%,
over a 5-year period. Both the average family size and total number of family households are projected
to increase slightly.
State of Ohio
Average Household Income
Average Family Size
Total Family Households
2015 Estimates
2020 Projections
Change 2015-20 Change 2015-20 (%)
$49,011
$56,419
$7,408
15.1%
$66,259
$75,997
$9,738
14.7%
3.01
3.02
0.01
0.3%
2,977,183
2,981,466
4,283
0.1%
Source: ESRI
Median and average household incomes in the District are projected to increase by approximately 19%
and 15%, respectively over a 5-year period. The average family size is projected to increase slightly, and
the number of family households is projected to decline slightly.
Average Household Income
Average Family Size
Total Family Households
2015 Estimates 2020 Projections Change 2015-20 Change 2015-20 (%)
$86,359
$102,826
$16,467
19.1%
$114,119
$131,364
$17,245
15.1%
3.04
3.05
0.01
0.3%
7,417
7,293
-124
-1.7%
Source: ESRI
The maps on the following pages illustrate the data identified in the tables. The color coding identifies
areas within the District that may be increasing or decreasing at different rates than others.
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26
November 20, 2015
REPORT
27
November 20, 2015
REPORT
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November 20, 2015
REPORT
29
November 20, 2015
REPORT
HOUSING INFORMATION
The chart below illustrates the number of single-family dwelling building permits issued each year in
Brecksville and Broadview Heights. The year-to-date total has already surpassed the total for the year
2014.
# of Building Permits Issued for Single Family Dwellings
Year
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015*
Brecksville
29
40
23
12
12
9
4
4
8
5
9
22
Broadview Heights
342
177
50
30
18
12
23
21
24
12
20
27
Total
371
217
73
42
30
21
27
25
32
17
29
49
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database; City of Brecksville
* through October 26, 2015 for Brecksville and September 2015 for
Broadview Heights
Housing development is underway in both Brecksville and Broadview Heights. In Brecksville, The
Woodlands currently has 14 lots available out of 54 total. In Broadview Heights, there are two
developments with available lots: Bella Terra with 3 lots and Town Center Village with 25 lots.
Additionally, there is another subdivision in the early planning stages.
30
November 20, 2015
REPORT
SURVIVAL RATIOS
The chart below demonstrates the changes in enrollment as students move through the system.
Percentages greater than 100 indicate that there are more students than there were in the previous grade
the previous year. In other words, there was growth and new students entered the system. Percentages
less than 100 indicate that there was decline with students leaving the system.
Birth to Kindergarten: This ratio indicates the number of children born in the area who attend
kindergarten in the District 5 years later. Percentages less than 100% result from movement out of
the district, attendance at a non-public or charter school, or residence in another district within the
same area.
The following table illustrates the survival ratios for the Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District.
from
to
2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
2009
2009
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
birth -> K
average
standard
deviation
K->1
1->2
2->3
3->4
4->5
5->6
6->7
7->8
8->9
9->10
10->11
11->12
43.5%
136.4%
90.3%
102.5%
107.2%
100.3%
94.7%
103.7%
101.3%
108.5%
93.5%
106.4%
109.1%
45.9%
109.6%
104.8%
100.4%
102.7%
103.1%
100.3%
103.9%
102.3%
103.0%
102.2%
96.8%
97.7%
42.9%
103.1%
102.0%
102.8%
104.1%
100.6%
100.8%
101.5%
99.7%
102.2%
99.0%
100.0%
96.9%
39.6%
106.4%
105.6%
107.0%
103.3%
101.4%
104.1%
98.9%
100.3%
98.9%
99.8%
100.2%
98.8%
37.5%
105.0%
104.5%
102.5%
103.3%
101.2%
108.0%
101.4%
100.8%
105.5%
97.3%
99.8%
100.7%
33.1%
111.4%
102.1%
104.0%
104.1%
101.4%
100.0%
101.9%
102.2%
98.6%
99.5%
101.4%
98.8%
38.8%
121.8%
100.0%
123.1%
105.2%
97.4%
123.0%
90.0%
114.6%
98.9%
100.3%
97.5%
112.7%
41.5%
114.8%
106.8%
105.3%
89.1%
99.0%
108.8%
87.0%
115.9%
87.0%
98.6%
99.7%
101.7%
42.1%
107.3%
104.8%
99.3%
102.3%
100.8%
105.3%
102.2%
100.0%
103.3%
99.7%
100.0%
100.3%
40.55%
112.858%
102.33%
105.2%
102.37%
100.6%
105.0%
98.9%
104.1%
100.653%
98.867%
100.202%
101.863%
3.563%
9.906%
4.688%
6.710%
4.898%
1.526%
7.597%
5.795%
6.011%
5.737%
2.272%
2.563%
5.119%
31
November 20, 2015
REPORT
ENROLLMENT PROJECTION
Enrollment projections were developed after analyzing the data collected in this report. The projections
indicate a decrease of 295 students in grades Pre-K through 12 from the 2015-16 to the 2025-26 school
year. The following tables and graph illustrate projected enrollments by grade and by grade group through
the 2025-26 school year.
Projected Enrollment
Grade
Pre-K
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Pre-K - 12 Total
Ungraded
Grade 23
Grand Total
2015-16
Actual
55
215
251
260
266
264
263
317
328
307
377
313
361
365
3,942
2
4
3,948
2016-17
54
223
247
261
268
277
266
276
319
335
312
377
313
365
3,893
2
4
3,899
2017-18
52
213
255
256
269
279
279
278
277
325
340
311
376
316
3,826
2
4
3,832
2018-19
49
202
244
265
264
280
280
292
280
283
330
339
311
380
3,799
2
4
3,805
2019-20
51
208
232
254
273
274
281
294
294
285
287
330
339
314
3,716
2
4
3,722
2020-21
2021-22
52
212
238
241
261
284
276
294
295
299
290
286
329
342
3,699
2
4
3,705
52
214
242
247
248
272
285
289
296
301
304
289
286
332
3,657
2
4
3,663
2022-23
53
216
245
252
254
258
273
299
291
302
305
303
289
289
3,629
2
4
3,635
2023-24
53
218
247
254
259
265
259
286
301
296
306
305
303
291
3,643
2
4
3,649
2024-25
53
216
250
257
262
270
266
271
288
306
301
306
304
305
3,655
2
4
3,661
2025-26
52
214
247
259
264
272
271
279
273
293
311
300
305
307
3,647
2
4
3,653
Source: FutureThink
Projected Enrollment by Grade Group
Grade
Pre-K - 3
4-5
6-8
9 - 12
Pre-K - 12 Total
Ungraded
Grade 23
Grand Total
2015-16
Actual
1,047
527
952
1,416
3,942
2
4
3,948
2016-17
1,053
543
930
1,367
3,893
2
4
3,899
2017-18
1,045
558
880
1,343
3,826
2
4
3,832
2018-19
1,024
560
855
1,360
3,799
2
4
3,805
2019-20
1,018
555
873
1,270
3,716
2
4
3,722
2020-21
1,004
560
888
1,247
3,699
2
4
3,705
2021-22
1,003
557
886
1,211
3,657
2
4
3,663
2022-23
1,020
531
892
1,186
3,629
2
4
3,635
2023-24
1,031
524
883
1,205
3,643
2
4
3,649
2024-25
1,038
536
865
1,216
3,655
2
4
3,661
2025-26
1,036
543
845
1,223
3,647
2
4
3,653
Source: FutureThink
32
November 20, 2015
REPORT
33
November 20, 2015
REPORT
CONCLUSION
As with any projection, the District should pay close attention to live birth counts, enrollment in
elementary schools, community school enrollment, open enrollment, and any housing growth. Each of
these factors will have an impact on future student enrollment.
FutureThink is pleased to have had the opportunity to provide the District with enrollment projection
services. We hope this document will provide the necessary information to make informed decisions
about the future of the Brecksville-Broadview Heights City School District.
34
November 20, 2015

FINAL REPORT - Brecksville Broadview Heights City School District

Transcription

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