Autofacts - SAA Strategic Planning Summit External (September

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Autofacts®
Industry Update
September 10, 2015
1 Global
Global
PwC Autofacts ®
2
1 Global
Regional outlook
The lion’s share of the new volume is expected to come from developing markets, and in particular developing AsiaPacific, providing nearly 65% CTG** from 2014-2021.
Regional Contribution to Growth*
2014 – 2021 (percentage share)
Americas
Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA)
Asia-Pacific
North
America
South
America
European
Union
Eastern
Europe
Middle East
& Africa
Developing
Asia-Pacific
Developed
Asia-Pacific
13.6%
5.5%
10.4%
6.0%
4.5%
64.8%
-4.8%
Regional Topline Comparison & Volume Change
2014 vs. 2021
∆
+3.1m
+1.2m
+2.3m
+1.3m
+1.0m
+14.4m
-1.0m
2021
20.2m
5.0m
19.0m
4.6m
2.9m
44.4m
12.4m
2014
17.1m
3.8m
16.7m
3.3m
1.9m
30.0m
13.4m
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
*Region size not to scale
**CTG = Contribution to Growth
3
1 Global
Alliance group outlook
Despite calls for industry consolidation, particularly in China, the global automotive market is expected to remain highly
diversified throughout the forecast window, with little to no M&A activity at the automaker level.
53 Alliance Groups (24%)
56 Alliance Groups (22%)
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
*RN = Renault-Nissan
**FCA = Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles
4
1 Global
Supplier consolidation on the rise
2015 will likely be a record year for automotive supplier deal value. PwC is forecasting $48b in closed transactions for the
full year.
Source: Thompson Reuters, CapIQ, Other publicly available sources, Strategy& Analysis
PwC Autofacts ®
5
1 Global
Powertrain outlook
A myriad of technologies will be used as the industry balances consumer demands with global emission standards. Market
share for alternative propulsion vehicles is expected to reach 6.7% in 2021, more than doubling from 2014 (3.3%).
2021F
2014
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
*Includes mild & full hybrid
6
2 North America
North America
PwC Autofacts ®
7
2 North America
Increased sales expected, but at a slower rate
While a record sixth consecutive year of sales growth is all but certain for the U.S. in 2015, a slowdown and eventual
downturn is on the horizon.
Light Vehicle Sales by Country
2006 – 2021(millions)
25
20
15
10
16.5
16.1
13.4
10.4
5
11.6
12.7
14.4
15.5
16.4
17.1
17.3
17.3
16.5
16.9
17.2
17.3
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
2017F
2018F
2019F
2020F
2021F
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
US
Canada
Mexico
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q4 Preliminary Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
8
2 North America
Low rates continue to drive sales
Auto interest rates remain near their historic low levels, thanks in part to aggressive measures taken by the Federal
Reserve, however with the Fed likely to raise rates this year, the good times aren’t likely to last for consumers.
Source: Federal Reserve G20 Report, Autofacts Analysis, Oxford Economics
PwC Autofacts ®
9
2 North America
Industry nearing a tipping point
Consumers are likely to feel increased upward pressure on the amount financed as average selling prices continue to rise,
helping to drive the total amount of outstanding auto loan debt to record highs.
Source: NADA, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
PwC Autofacts ®
10
2 North America
What goes around, comes around
While the U.S. auto industry is enjoying one of its most successful periods in recent memory, history also reminds us that
the good times can’t last forever.
U.S. Economic Recessions
1960 – 2021
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
11
2 North America
Import share continues to erode
Driven by increased localization of assembly within the region, non-NAFTA U.S. light vehicle imports are expected to see a
YoY (year-over-year) decline for the 5th time in the last 6 years.
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, Autofacts Analysis
PwC Autofacts ®
*Non-NAFTA
**Thru August 2015
12
2 North America
Big 3 import markets still dominating
While Japan, South Korea and Germany still represented the countries of origin for over 90% of vehicle imports in 2014,
the drop in import volume for those OEMs who localized assembly is telling of the direction the industry is heading.
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports, Autofacts Analysis
PwC Autofacts ®
*Includes Audi & Porsche
**Includes Kia
13
2 North America
US imports poised for a sharp decline
Taking into account both announced and forecasted capacity expansion through 2021, Autofacts estimates that US
imports could see a decline of nearly 50% from current levels.
North America Capacity Expansion by Company
2015 – 2021
2.65m * .84 = 2.23m
Source: Company Announcements, Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release, Autofacts Analysis
PwC Autofacts ®
2.23m * .83 (US regional sales share) = 1.85m
1 Includes
Kia
2
COMPAS = Cooperation Manufacturing Plant Aguascalientes)
3
Includes Audi & Porsche
14
2 North America
Steady growth anticipated for exports
Increased global demand for large CUVs and SUVs, many of which are sole sourced from North America, are expected to
result in export growth for the foreseeable future.
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles
Fiat-Chrysler Automobiles
WA
Plant: Jefferson North (Detroit, MI)
ND
Vehicles Produced: Jeep GrandMTCherokee, Dodge Durango
2014 Assembly:
364,000
OR
Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 93,000 (26%)
ID
Plant: Toledo Supplier Park (Toledo, OH)
Vehicles Produced: Jeep Wrangler / Wrangler Unlimited
2014 Assembly: 235,000
Non-NAFTA
Export Estimate: 34,000 (14%)
MA
ME
MI
MN
VT
NH
WI
SD
NY
WY
RI
MI
CT
PA
IA
NV
General Motors
Company
NJ
NE
OH
UT TX)
Plant: Arlington (Arlington,
CO
Vehicles Produced: Cadillac, Chevrolet,
GMC SUVs
CA
2014 Assembly: 300,000
Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 33,000 (11%)
IL
DE
IN
MD
WV
KS
MO
VA
KY
NC
BMW
Plant: Spartanburg (Spartanburg, SC)
Vehicles Produced: X3, X4, X5, X6
2014 Assembly: 344,000
Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 241,000 (70%)
TN
AZ
OK
AR
NM
SC
MS
TX
AL
Daimler AG
GA
LA
FL
Plant: Tuscaloosa (Vance, AL)
Vehicles Produced: C, GLS, GLE-Class
2014 Assembly: 230,000
Non-NAFTA Export Estimate: 122,000 (53%)
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release, Autofacts Analysis
PwC Autofacts ®
15
2 North America
North America forecasted to remain highly utilized
OEMs have shown considerable restraint in over-expanding their assembly footprint in the North American region,
leading to a highly utilized market.
Source: Autofacts 2015 Q3 Forecast Release
PwC Autofacts ®
16
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