Analysis for European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Countries and

Transcription

Analysis for European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Countries and the Russian
Federation on social and economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection
Morocco
COUNTRY REPORT
Wim Van Breusegem, Mohamed Belhaj Soulami
Arcadis
October 2011
www.environment-benefits.eu
2
Citation and disclaimer
This report should be quoted as follows:
Van Breusegem,W. and Soulami, M. 2011. Analysis for European Neighbourhood
Policy (ENP) Countries and the Russian Federation of social and economic benefits of
enhanced environmental protection – Morocco Country Report, funded by the
European Commission. Brussels.
Contributing authors:
- Hunt, A: Chapters 3.2 Benefits from improved ambient air quality
- Larsen, B: Chapters 4.2 Benefits from improved drinking water, sanitation
and hygiene, 6.4 Benefits from reducing cropland degradation
- Lago, M: Chapter 4.4 Benefits from improving surface water quality
- Spurgeon, J: Chapter 4.5 Benefits from reducing water resource scarcity
- Van Acoleyen, M: Chapters 5.2 Benefits from improving the waste collection
coverage, 5.3 Benefits from improving waste treatment and 5.4 Benefits from
reducing methane emissions from waste
- Ten Brink, P: Chapter 6.3 Benefits from forests and reducing deforestation
- Hunt, A: Chapter 7.3 Benefits of adaptation to climate change.
This report has been prepared with all reasonable skill, care and diligence within the terms
of the contract with the client, taking account of the resources devoted to it by agreement
with the client.
We disclaim any responsibility to the client and others in respect of any matters outside the
scope of the agreement. We accept no responsibility of whatsoever nature to third parties
to whom this report, or any part thereof, is made known.
The benefits in this report have been assessed, using available data, the source of which may
not be entirely reliable, and with considerable data gaps requiring several assumptions. The
results are therefore considered indicative only, providing an order of magnitude. However,
the results are considered useful for making benefits of enhanced environmental protection
understandable to a wide audience.
The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors
and do not necessarily represent the views of countries or of the European
Commission.
All data used in this report refer to 2008, unless otherwise indicated
Morocco-ENPI Benefit Assessment
3
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ACRONYMS.......................................................................................................... 13
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – ENGLISH / FRANÇAIS ...................................................... 16
1
INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................. 46
1.1
This report ................................................................................................. 46
1.2
What are environmental benefit assessments? .......................................... 46
1.3
Aims of the country benefit assessments ................................................... 47
1.4
Potential users of and target audience for this benefit assessment report .. 48
1.5
The benefits of an improved environment ................................................. 48
1.6
Scope of the country benefit assessment ................................................... 49
1.7
The level of analysis ................................................................................... 50
1.8
Assumptions .............................................................................................. 51
2
COUNTRY OVERVIEW .................................................................................... 55
2.1 Environment, economy and society ........................................................... 55
2.1.1
Physical context ......................................................................................... 55
2.1.2
Economy .................................................................................................... 56
2.1.3
Society........................................................................................................ 57
2.1.4
Summary .................................................................................................... 59
2.1.5
State of the environment .......................................................................... 59
3
3.1
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING AIR RELATED CONDITIONS ..................................... 63
Introduction to air quality issues ................................................................ 63
3.2 Benefits from improved ambient air quality ............................................... 64
3.2.1
Current state of ambient air quality .......................................................... 64
3.2.2
Potential environmental improvements ................................................... 65
3.2.3
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality 66
3.2.4
Quantitative assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality
69
3.2.5
Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality .. 71
4
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING WATER RELATED CONDITIONS ............................... 73
4.1 This section ............................................................................................... 73
4.1.1
Introduction ............................................................................................... 74
5
4.1.2
4.1.3
4.1.4
4.1.5
4.1.6
Current status ............................................................................................ 76
Potential environmental improvements ................................................... 79
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reaching the targets ............... 81
Quantitative assessment ........................................................................... 84
Monetary assessment of the benefits ....................................................... 86
4.2 Benefits from improving the level of waste water treatment...................... 87
4.2.1
Definition of the parameter ...................................................................... 87
4.2.2
Current state of waste water treatment and potential environmental
improvements .......................................................................................................... 88
4.2.3
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving waste water
treatment ................................................................................................................. 90
4.2.4
Quantitative assessment of the benefits of improving waste water
treatment ................................................................................................................. 90
4.2.5
Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving waste water
treatment ................................................................................................................. 91
4.3 Benefits from improving surface water quality ........................................... 91
4.3.1
Introduction ............................................................................................... 91
4.3.2
Current state of surface water quality ...................................................... 94
4.3.3
Potential environmental improvements and targets ................................ 95
4.3.4
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving surface water quality
96
4.3.5
Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving surface water quality
98
4.4 Benefits from reducing water resource scarcity .......................................... 99
4.4.1
This section ................................................................................................ 99
4.4.2
Definition of parameter ............................................................................. 99
4.4.3
Current state of water resource use ....................................................... 101
4.4.4
Baseline in 2020 ....................................................................................... 104
4.4.5
Potential environmental improvements ................................................. 104
4.4.6
The benefits of reducing water scarcity .................................................. 105
5
5.1
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING WASTE RELATED CONDITIONS ............................. 107
Introduction to waste related issues ........................................................ 107
5.2 Benefits from increasing waste collection coverage .................................. 109
5.2.1
Introduction to waste collection benefits ............................................... 109
5.2.2
Waste collection in Morocco ................................................................... 109
5.2.3
Amounts of waste collected and disposed .............................................. 111
5.2.4
Baseline scenario waste collection .......................................................... 112
5.2.5
Targets ..................................................................................................... 113
5.2.6
Environmental improvements ................................................................. 114
5.2.7
Benefits assessment ................................................................................ 114
5.3
Waste treatment ..................................................................................... 116
6
5.3.1
5.3.2
5.3.3
5.3.4
5.3.5
5.3.6
Introduction to benefits of enhanced waste treatment ......................... 116
Overview of the situation ........................................................................ 117
Baseline scenario waste treatment ......................................................... 120
Targets ..................................................................................................... 120
Benefit assessment .................................................................................. 125
5.4 Methane emissions.................................................................................. 126
5.4.1
Introduction to benefits of landfill gas capture....................................... 126
5.4.2
The state of the environment.................................................................. 127
5.4.3
Baseline scenario waste treatment ......................................................... 127
5.4.4
Targets ..................................................................................................... 128
5.4.5
5.4.6
Socio-economic benefits assessment ...................................................... 129
5.5 Qualitative assessment of improved collection, disposal and increased
recycling ............................................................................................................ 130
6
6.1
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING NATURE RELATED CONDITIONS ........................... 133
This section ............................................................................................. 133
6.2 Benefits from improving biodiversity protection ...................................... 133
6.2.1
Definitions................................................................................................ 133
6.2.2
Current status of biodiversity .................................................................. 134
6.2.3
Effectiveness of the management of protected areas ............................ 137
6.2.4
Threats and constraints ........................................................................... 139
6.2.5
6.2.6
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving biodiversity
protection ............................................................................................................... 142
6.2.7
Quantitative and monetary assessment of the benefits of improving
biodiversity protection ........................................................................................... 145
6.3 Benefits from reducing deforestation ....................................................... 145
6.3.1
Introduction ............................................................................................. 145
6.3.2
Current level of deforestation ................................................................. 146
6.3.3
6.3.4
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest management
149
6.3.5
Quantitative assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest
management .......................................................................................................... 151
6.3.6
Monetary assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest management
152
6.4 Benefits from improved croplands ........................................................... 153
6.4.1
Introduction ............................................................................................. 153
6.4.2
Current status .......................................................................................... 154
6.4.3
7
6.4.4
6.4.5
6.4.6
7
7.1
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reaching the targets ............. 158
Quantitative assessment ......................................................................... 159
Monetary assessment of the benefits ..................................................... 159
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED CONDITIONS ............ 161
This section ............................................................................................. 161
7.2 Benefits from increasing the uptake of renewable energy sources ............ 161
7.2.1
Introduction to the approach taken ........................................................ 161
7.2.2
Current uptake and potential for renewable energy sources ................. 162
7.2.2.1 ................................................................................................................. 164
7.2.3
7.2.4
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of
renewable energy sources ..................................................................................... 169
7.2.5
Quantitative assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of
7.2.6
Monetary assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of
7.3 Benefits from adapting to climate change ................................................ 174
7.3.1
Introduction to the approach taken ........................................................ 174
7.3.2
7.3.3
Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reducing the impacts of climate
change 178
REFERENCES....................................................................................................... 181
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TABLES
Table 1-1 Overview of themes, sub-themes and parameters
50
Table 1-2 Summary of key assumptions for ENP benefits studies
52
Table 1-3 Annual growth rates
53
Table 2-1 Key economic indicators for Morocco
59
Table 3-1 Air pollution emissions: Baselines and targets
66
Table 3-2 Environmental benefits of improved air quality
67
Table 3-3 Health benefits of improved air quality
68
Table 3-4 Social benefits of improved air quality
68
Table 3-5 Economic benefits of improved air quality
69
Table 3-6 Physical premature mortality and morbidity impacts avoided in year 2020
70
Table 3-7 Annual Compliance Benefits – Morocco 2020
71
Table 4-1 Household access to drinking water and sanitation facilities, % of
population 2008
77
Table 4-2 Baseline assumptions, 2020
80
Table 4-3 Number of beneficiaries of reaching the targets, 2020
81
Table 4-4 Case study: improving water availability and sanitation in rural schools 82
Table 4-5 Benefits of improved potable water supply, sanitation and hygiene
practices
83
Table 4-6 Expected diarrheal disease and diarrheal mortality reduction from reaching
the targets by population group
86
Table 4-7 Estimated annual benefits in 2020 of meeting the water, sanitation and
hygiene targets
87
Table 4-8 Wastewater discharge and treatment [2008]
89
Table 4-9 Waste water treatment: baseline in 2020 and environmental improvement
89
Table 4-10 Overview of key benefits of improving waste water treatment
90
Table 4-11 Types of surface water quality improvements covered
93
Table 4-12 Water quality of main rivers
94
Table 4-13 Key benefits from improved surface water quality
96
Table 4-14 Water quality improvements benefits assessment results for Morocco 99
Table 4-15 Water resources
101
Table 4-16 Threats to water availability
102
Table 4-17 Water use
103
Table 4-18 Water scarcity indices
103
Table 4-19 Benefits of alleviating water scarcity and optimising water use
106
Table 5-1 Amounts of waste generated
111
Table 5-2 Baseline total municipal waste generation
113
Table 5-3 Yearly increase of MSW collection coverage
114
Table 5-4 Target municipal waste generation (tonnes/year): 100% collection
coverage(%) in 2030
114
Table 5-5 Baseline scenario for waste treatment
120
Table 5-6 Baseline shift in waste composition
121
Table 5-7 Baseline municipal waste fractions generation
121
Table 5-8 Baseline municipal waste composition
122
9
Table 5-9 Target values in quantitative data for 2030
123
Table 5-10 Minimal percentages for different waste treatment options in a scenario
in which target values for 2030 have been reached
123
Table 5-11 Minimal percentages for different waste treatment options in 2020 if
targets would be met in 2030
124
Table 5-12 Environmental improvements in waste management in 2020
125
Table 5-13 Assessment of job creation in waste treatment in 2020 when evolving
towards target values in 2030
126
Table 5-14 Methane emissions in the baseline scenario in m³
128
Table 5-15 Methane emissions in the target compliant scenario in 2020
129
Table 5-16 Key benefits of improved waste management
131
Table 6-1 Overview of national parks
136
Table 6-2 Overview of marine protected areas
136
Table 6-3 Poverty and biodiversity loss in the Souss Massa Drâa region
138
Table 6-4 Key threaths to terrestrial ecosystems
139
Table 6-5 Key benefits of improving biodiversity protection
142
Table 6-6 Forests primary designated functions
147
Table 6-7 Trend in total net forest cover
148
Table 6-8 Annual change rate
148
Table 6-9 Benefits of participatory approaches to forest management
150
Table 6-10 The cedar of the Atlas: threats and benefits
150
Table 6-11 Comparative assessment for million tonnes of CO2 stored under BAU and
target scenarios.
152
Table 6-12 Carbon stock in living forest biomass. – total and per hectare
152
Table 6-13 Estimated value of carbon storage in 2010 and 2020 (high and low
estimates
153
Table 6-14 Extent of human induced land degradation in Morocco
154
Table 6-15 Assumptions of current crop yield reductions on degraded land
156
Table 6-16 Projected baseline crop production and value of production, 2008-2020
156
Table 6-17 Estimates of yield increase from meeting the target in 2020
157
Table 6-18 Benefits of improved crop land management
158
Table 6-19 Estimated annual benefits in 2020 of meeting the target
159
Table 7-1 Carbon value used in this study (€/t)
162
Table 7-2 Primary energy consumption
163
Table 7-3 Primary energy consumption for electricity production
163
Table 7-4 Baseline production from RES in 2020
165
Table 7-5 Environmental improvements if EU RES targets are met
169
Table 7-6 CO2 reduction if EU RES targets are met
173
Table 7-7 Monetary benefit if EU RES targets are met
173
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FIGURES
Figure 1 Map of Morocco
55
Figure 2 Progression towards 2030 targets
124
Figure 3 Total landfill emissions, US EPA Standardised Model
128
Figure 4 Morocco forest cover map (year 2000)
147
Figure 5 Energy demand evolution and forecast
164
Figure 6 Technical Wind and Solar potential (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
165
Figure 7 Objectives for RE (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
166
Figure 8 Objective for electricity production (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
167
Figure 9 Legal initiatives in the field of energy management (Moroccan Mitigation
Plan 2008)
167
Figure 10 Morocco’s solar objective (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
168
Figure 11 Actual and short term RE initiatives in both energy utilities as well as
energy production in the industry (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
168
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ACRONYMS
ADEREE……………Agency for Development of Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency
AQ………………………Air Quality
BFT……………………..Benefit Function Transfer
Bln………………………Billion
BOD ..................... Biological Oxygen Demand
CBD…………………… Convention on Biological Diversity
CDM..................... Clean Development Mechanism
CH4....................... Methane
CO ....................... Carbon Monoxide
CO2 ...................... Carbon Dioxide
COD ..................... Chemical Oxygen Dissolved
DALYs................... Disability Adjusted Life Years
DH……………………….Dirham
DHS ...................... Demographic and Health Survey
DO ....................... Dissolved oxygen
DRF ...................... Dose Response Function
E. coli ................... Escherichia Coli
ENP ..................... European Neighbourhood Policy
ENPI……………………European Neighbourhood and Partnership Instrument
EU ........................ European Union
GAR...................... Ground Water Recharge
GDP...................... Gross Domestic Product
GEF ...................... Global Environment Facility
GES ...................... Good Ecological Status
GHG ..................... Green House Gases
GLASOD………………Global Assessment of Soil Degradation
GWh……………………Gigawatt Hour
Hg ........................ Mercury
HH........................ Household
HRC ...................... Human Right Council
IBA ....................... Important Bird Areas
IUCN .................... International Union for Conservation of Nature
JMP ...................... Joint Monitoring Programme for Drinking Water and Sanitation
Kg………………………..Kilogram
MDG .................... Millennium Development Goals
MENA .................. Middle East and North Africa
MICS .................... Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey
MPA ..................... Marine Protected Area
MSA ..................... Mean Species Abundance
MSW .................... Municipal Solid Waste
NGO ..................... Non Governmental Organisation
NH3 ...................... Ammonia
NMVOCs .............. Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds
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NOx ................................. Nitrogen Oxides
O3 ........................ Ozone
ODS…………………….Ozone Depleting Substances
OECD…………………..The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
ONE…………………. Office National de l'Electricité
PA ........................ Protected Areas
PAH ...................... Polycyclic-Aromatic-Hydrocarbons
Pb ........................ Lead
PM ................................... Particulate Matter
PPP ...................... Purchasing Power Parity
RES....................... Renewable Energy Source
SEBI...................... Streamlining European Biodiversity Indicators
SIBE…………………….Site of Biological Interest
SO2 ..................... Sulphur Dioxide
SOX ....................... Sulphur Oxides
SWAR ................... Surface Water Runoff
SWQS................... Surface Water Quality Standards
TARWR ................ Total Actual Renewable Water Resource
TDS ...................... Total Dissolved Solids
TEEB..................... The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity
TEV………………………Total Economic Value
TFC....................... Total Final Consumption
TOE ...................... Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
TPES ..................... Total Primary Energy Supply
UNDP ................... United Nations Development Programme
UNECE…………………United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
UNFCCC ............... United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
UNICEF ................ United Nations Children’s Fund
VIP ....................... Ventilated improved pit toilet
VOCs .................... Volatile Organic Compounds
VSL ...................... Value of Statistical Life
WDPA .................. World Database of Protected Areas
WEI ...................... Water Exploitation Index
WFD…………………….EC Water Framework Directive
WHO .................... World Health Organisation
WTP ..................... Willingness To Pay
WWT ................... Waste Water Treatment
WWTP……………….. Waste Water Treatment Plant
14
15
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – ENGLISH / FRANÇAIS
The European Union, represented by the European Commission has contracted a
consortium led by ARCADIS Belgium N.V. to undertake an analysis of social and
economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection in the 16 countries
covered by the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and in the Russian
Federation.1 The other consortium partners are: Institute for European
Environmental Policy (IEEP), Ecologic Institute, Environmental Resources
Management Ltd. and Metroeconomica Ltd.
This is the executive summary of the report on the benefit assessment for Morocco
that has been prepared by team consisting of an EU expert and a national expert,
using a Benefit Assessment Manual developed under the project. This Benefit
Assessment Manual which was originally for internal use only, has been turned into a
Benefit Assessment Manual for Policy Makers for wider dissemination. The Manual
provides an understanding of the methodologies applied for the benefit assessment.
All project results, including the country benefit assessment reports, regional
synthesis reports and the Benefit Assessment Manual, are available from the project
website www.environment-benefits.eu
Introduction
Morocco is a developing country with an economy dependent on its agricultural
sector and a light industrial base. While economic growth has historically been
hampered by volatility in the rainfall-dependent agriculture sector (over 80% of the
country is at risk of desertification), diversification has made the economy more
resilient. Casablanca, where 43% of the country's industries are located, is the
country’s main industrial centre. The country's third largest source of revenue is
tourism. Most of the population lives in the fertile plains or near the Mediterranean
coast, which suffer from rapid, often poorly planned, urbanisation. About half of the
population still lives in rural areas though.
Morocco faces several challenges in all its environmental sectors – air (in particular
in the Casablanca region), water (both quantity and quality), waste (inappropriate
disposal) and nature (biodiversity loss, soil erosion). These issues are mostly a result
of human activities and some will be intensified by climate change. High population
growth and socio-economic development have put pressure on natural resources
and caused environmental degradation. Strategic planning, implementation and
enforcement of environmental legislation, institutional strengthening, investment in
technologies relevant to the environment and the climate and raising the level of
environmental awareness and of public participation in decision-making, constitute
significant challenges.
1
EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 (EC)
16
Morocco acknowledges that its future development depends on reducing
environmental damage and sustainable use of existing natural resources. The
National Charter for Environment and Sustainable Development (2011) forms the
framework for national environmental laws as well as for future environmental
policy. It is expected to give a stimulus to sound environmental management.
There are considerable benefits from taking immediate action to address the
environmental problems facing Morocco. These include improvements to health and
reductions in mortality, economic savings and the potential for new economic
opportunities, and widespread gains in community well-being. This report provides
a first look at the potential social and economic value stemming from these
improvements across environmental sectors. The numbers2 cited in this report are
indicative only, based on a rapid assessment often using limited data and many
assumptions. While more detailed assessments should be encouraged to be carried
out in the future, it is expected that this report can already help to support sound
decision-making on environmental issues.
For all these topics the actual situation was assessed, a baseline scenario is
described, target values for 2020 are described, and benefits of an environmental
policy are described. Depending on the data availability qualitative, quantitative and
monetary assessments have been made.
By taking measures to reduce the above described pressures, significant benefits will
arise in health, environmental, economic, and social terms.
Benefit Assessment
Air pollution has been increasing over the past 20 years as a result of industrial
development and rapid urbanisation (coupled with an increase in traffic). Industries
responsible for air pollution include in particular petroleum refineries and power
generation plants, but also phosphate-processing units, cement factories and the
iron/steel industry. Vehicle emissions contribute up to 60% of Morocco's air
pollution, particularly in the zone of Rabat-Casablanca, where over 50% of the
vehicles are concentrated. Vehicle emissions are a significant source of air pollution,
because of the increasing number of aging vehicles, the lack of emission controls, the
use of low-quality fuel (with high sulphur and lead content) and the general lack of
engine maintenance. Natural sources of air pollution include, in particular, dust and
sandstorms.
A correlation has been found between air pollution and the health burden in a
number of cities. Epidemiologic studies conducted in Casablanca, Mohammedia and
Safi have shown correlations between air pollution and increased respiratory
2
Monetary values in Euros are adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), except for the carbon
prices used as regards climate change mitigation, which are in €. Monetary values calculated for e.g.
health benefits associated with avoided impacts of air pollution, or other benefits, are thus in € PPP.
17
infections, bronchitis, asthma, and premature mortality. Mortality, for example, has
increased by 2% due to the increase of PM10 concentrations by 22 μg/m³.
Air quality is now a major concern in urban centres, such as Casablanca, Rabat, El
Jadida and Safi, where not only most of the industries, but also most of the vehicles,
are concentrated.
Improvements in air quality are expected to lead to benefits especially in terms of
reduced respiratory diseases, cardiovascular illness and mortality. Benefits to the
natural environment and to the cultural heritage of the country are also expected,
e.g., through reduced: damages to plant species and buildings; acidification; and
eutrophication of ecosystems (which can affect economically important resources
such as fisheries). There has recently been an increasing awareness of the diverse
and complex impacts of air pollution and of the benefits of taking action. Public and
private sector establishments take a greater interest in preventive measures to
control air pollution and in shifting from end-of-pipe treatments to a more proactive
approach, including cleaner production.
Key potential benefits from air quality improvements that will arise by 2020 (the
study ‘target’ year) are as follows:
Air
Qualitative benefits
Quantitative
benefits
Monetary benefits
Health:
Reduced
cardiovascular
and
respiratory diseases, which entail a
significant economic cost including the cost
to the economy (restricted activity days) and
to national health services
Health:
Health and Economic: total
domestic benefits (health,
crops,
materials):1,768
million (PPP) per year, i.e.,
1.3% of 2020 GDP
to
in-country: 4,400
fewer cases of
death;
8,500
fewer cases of
morbidity
Economic: improved agriculture output; jobs
in green technology
surrounding
countries: 1,750
deaths avoided
Environment:
Reduced
ecosystems and crops
damage
Social: reduced damage to buildings/cultural
heritage
Morocco is located in an arid climate and water management is a key factor in the
future of the country. Scarce and unevenly distributed rainfall has made water a key
economic and social development issue. The country faces challenges in managing
and using its water resources more sustainably, as well as in developing equitable
and efficient water supply and sanitation services.
As for drinking water, in 2008 98% of the urban population had permanent access to
an improved drinking water (91% by municipal networks and 9% by public
fountains). Only 60% of the rural population was using improved drinking water
18
sources, compared to 55% in 1990. The situation has thus not significantly improved
over the past decades and the percentage remains low.
Piped water supply from a central water intake and distribution outlet allows for
treatment of water and monitoring of water quality. If source water is generally of
good quality and the piped distribution networks are well-functioning, such a water
supply system has the potential to provide safe drinking water with minimal risk of
disease. Priority should thus be given to investment in the piped distribution
network, proper treatment and disinfection, regular quality monitoring and provision
of continuous water supply.
As regards sewage connection, in 2008, 81% of the urban and only 52% of the rural
population was using improved sanitation facilities. The situation in the rural areas
has significantly improved over the past decades, given that in 1990 only 27% was
using improved sanitation facilities, though the percentage is still low. A particular
water and sanitation problem occurs in the peri-urban areas of Morocco’s main cities
where about 2 million Moroccans remain without access to water supply and/or
sanitation services. Connection to a sewage network provides the opportunity of
minimizing pollution of water and land resources through central treatment of
wastewater.
Less than 30% of the collected sewage is treated in waste water treatment plants.
Few Moroccan cities have operating wastewater treatment plants. Most sewage is
being released directly, without appropriate treatment, into the rivers and the sea
(often directly on the beachfront or through the oueds) or in the open (soil).
Infrastructure for wastewater management is clearly insufficient.
Residents that do not have access to adequate water supply, get their water from
contaminated shallow wells, from water providers (who often charge a relatively
high unit price) or from standpipes, which often require women or children to queue
for several hours. Households that do not have access to basic sanitation use cesspits
and poorly designed septic tanks, which risk increasing contamination of shallow
groundwater. Many of the poorest people remain without any form of sanitation.
These deficiencies directly affect people’s health and their ability to engage in
income-generating activities—or, for children, to attend school.
Although Morocco's primary pollution problem is the contamination of water
sources with raw sewage, industrial pollution is a growing problem. Industrial
wastewater is discharged usually untreated to the sea, either through the urban
sewage network or directly in oueds (dry river beds). Very few industrial plants
operate their WWTPs successfully, therefore industrial discharges represent a
serious threat for the quality of the marine coastal environment at the vicinity of
urban and industrial areas. Industrial accidents have contributed to environmental
contamination and are becoming increasingly common. Oil tankers travelling along
Morocco's coast also have been a significant source of coastal water pollution.
19
Agricultural pollution and run-off from solid waste landfill sites are other significant
causes of water pollution.
Pollution of Mediterranean and Atlantic coastal waters is a significant cross-border
environmental issue affecting Morocco. The Euro-Mediterranean partners, including
Morocco, have joined together in the "Horizon 2020 Initiative". The aim is to depollute the Mediterranean by the year 2020 by tackling the sources of pollution that
account for around 80% of the overall pollution of the Mediterranean Sea.
Inland and coastal water is thus exposed to several sources of contamination,
especially from industrial and agricultural processes and waste water discharges.
Water quality is one of the country's most pressing environmental and health issues,
which is also hampering the development of tourism.
Water scarcity is a key issue, given Morocco’s arid climate (over 90% of the country
is classified as arid or semi-arid) and limited water resources. The country’s water
resources are gradually running out as a result of population growth, pollution,
inefficient irrigation (agriculture accounts for a major part of total water
consumption), irregular rainfall and sedimentation of reservoirs. In addition, the
water resources are unevenly distributed over the country: water is relatively
plentiful in the north, whereas water-scarce areas are located mostly in the south.
The threat of climate change is considered likely to exacerbate many of these issues,
in particular by increasing the frequency, length and gravity of extreme events, such
as droughts and floods.
Improving water quality and infrastructures are expected to lead to significant health
benefits, especially in terms of reduced water-borne diseases. The quality of
ecosystems will also be improved (e.g., reduced eutrophication) and further
economic and social benefits will follow, e.g., in terms of tourism benefits or higher
school attendance, in particular of girls, if rural schools were to be equipped with
water and sanitation facilities.
Many of the benefits of reliable and safe piped water supply and connection to a
sewage network are difficult to quantify though. An indication of some of the social
benefits of providing sewage connection (or improved sanitation in isolated rural
areas) is considerable time savings, and increased convenience and social status for
the 17% of the population that currently practices open defecation. Similarly,
providing local water sources results also in considerable time savings, by reducing
the time required fetching water and by making domestic tasks faster to complete,
thus having a positive impact on school attendance for girls. An internationally
funded project in Morocco succeeded in increasing girls’ school attendance in six
provinces by 20% over 4 years, in part attributable to the reduced burden on young
girls to fetch water.
20
The benefits of improving water availability, quality and infrastructures, up to 2020,
are summarised below.
Water
Quantitative benefits
Monetary benefits
Health: reduced water borne
diseases; reduction in infant
mortality rates, which are still high
and which are directly linked to
unsafe drinking water.
Health:
average
reduction in diarrheal
disease and mortality:
o by 33% if the
entire population
has good hygiene
practices
o and by 65% if
hygiene practices
can generally be
substantially
improved.
Health: between € 6721,333 million (PPP) for
fewer cases of water borne
diseases/death, i.e., 0.51.0% of 2020 GDP
Environment:
improved
river/coastal water quality; reduced
eutrophication;
improved
groundwater quality (cesspits and
poorly designed septic tanks risk to
contaminate shallow groundwater)
Social: between € 242.51,117.5 million (PPP) for
WTP for improved surface
water quality, i.e., 0.190.86% of 2020 GDP (some
overlaps with the above).
Economic: reduced costs of
treatment for potable water;
reduced cost of clean water for
industry; opportunities for water
reuse in agriculture; increased
tourists satisfaction, increased fish
catch;
significant
gains
in
agricultural output if agricultural
water use and irrigation were
better managed.
Social: improved living conditions
especially of the poor; improved
health increases the ability to
engage
in
income-generating
activities;
increased
school
attendance if schools have access to
safe water and sanitation; time
savings from household connection
can be used for income-generating
activities for adults and improved
education for children
Waste is major environmental and health issue in Morocco that requires urgent
attention from decision-makers. Not only municipal solid waste (MSW) poses a
significant problem, but also industrial waste and hazardous wastes (e.g., infectious
medical waste). Morocco generates over 5 million tons of MSW per year in urban
areas, and 1.5 million tons in rural areas, which equates to an average of 205
kg/person per year.
Key MSW issues include: increasing waste generation (with the improving living
standard), a poor waste management policy (focused mainly on "cleanliness" with
limited attention to waste disposal and recycling), lack of cost recovery policies and
thus of sufficient funding, lack of technical expertise, insufficient cooperation
between municipalities, inefficient and partial collection, inappropriate waste
21
disposal (no sanitary landfills), poor cost effectiveness of public-private partnerships
(mainly due to limited competition, lack of transparency, and poor accountability)
and a low level of public awareness (evidenced e.g., by widespread littering).
Extended Producer Responsibility for products that have come to the end of their
useful life has not yet been introduced.
Local authorities have the legal obligation to collect and to dispose of household
waste, but can however often not keep up with the environmental protection and
waste disposal tasks entrusted to them. It is estimated that 82% of the urban and
only 20% of the rural population are covered by collection services. Where collection
rates are low, wild dumpsites arise and widespread littering of natural landscapes
and cultural sites occurs.
Nearly all collected MSW is sent to landfills, as there are no MSW incinerators and
recycling is underdeveloped. Most landfills (which are often wild, uncontrolled
dumpsites) fail to meet basic environmental requirements and are a significant
source of air (due to gasses, dust and bad odour), groundwater (through leachate)
and surface water (through runoff) pollution. Littering creates the risk of the spread
of diseases and parasites. Illegal scavenging is an issue, with health and safety risks
for the scavengers. The lack of a sound waste management system is problematic,
not only from an esthetic and economic (e.g., reduced tourism potential), but also
from a health point of view.
Our assessment indicates that improving waste collection by 2020 will prevent about
4.18 million tons to be dumped every year, which reduces the negative
environmental and health impact of waste. Socio-economic benefits are found in
increased employment and in an increased level of service and thus satisfaction.
Where waste is collected, it is however generally not separately collected, which
reduces the opportunities for recycling. Central composting facilities do not exist.
Only a minor fraction of the collected MSW is being recycled. The waste streams
which are mostly recycled are: paper, metals, plastics and glass. In the informal
recycling sector, waste pickers recover valuable waste items before collection or at
the landfill sites. The World Bank estimated that in 2008, about 3500 waste-pickers,
of which 10% were children, were living on and around the 300 uncontrolled
dumpsites, and open dumpsites. Waste pickers inclusion initiatives are now being
taken in Tangier, Casablanca Rabat and Agadir. The quantity of waste recycled
reaches approximately 305,100 tones/year, which represents 30% of the recyclable
waste and 10% of the total amount of waste.
Only recently, biogas collection and flaring systems have been installed at some
landfills (Salé, Fes) and it is Morocco’s intention to start using the methane gas for
energy generation. The recovery and use of methane from landfills can significantly
reduce the overall emissions of greenhouse gases. Where electricity generation is
impractical, flaring would be preferred over direct venting to reduce emissions and
fire hazards.
22
Waste management is an area in which the authorities have great potential to
improve the quality of public health, conserve natural resources through increased
recycling rates and mitigate climate change. Most waste could be converted into a
resource to reduce the final volumes of waste and subsequently the cost of final
disposal, and to save natural resources. This requires a change of existing waste
practices and the implementation of strategies aiming at waste prevention, separate
collection, recycling, composting and waste treatment before final disposal.
Improved waste management will create jobs and generate income, with recycling
generating considerably more jobs than landfilling or incinerating waste.
Key potential benefits from waste management improvements that will arise by
2020 (the project’s “target” year) are as follows:
Waste
Monetary benefits
Health: reduced water-borne disease
related to waste discharges near
waterways and
poor
hygiene
conditions
Land: 1,960,784 m² polluted
land avoided
Salary: € 11 million
(PPP) total salary for
extra waste collection
jobs
Environment: reduced pollution to
soil, surface and ground water and
improved air quality; reduced GHG
emissions
Economic: local employment in waste
sector; increased tourists satisfaction;
potential for energy production from
waste; potential for recycling which
conserves natural resources and saves
energy
Social: improved living conditions
Jobs: 1,430 work years for extra
waste collection jobs, plus
some additional management
and support jobs. More
adequate
techniques
and
policies, such as bring systems
and once/week collections can
further positively influence job
creation.
Jobs: 618 additional jobs for
waste treatment, recycling and
composting
Collection: € 217.4
million (PPP) WTP for
improved
waste
collection
GHG: € 317.5-455.9
million for reduced
methane emissions in
2020
GHG: 478,850,238 m³ avoided
methane emissions
In terms of biodiversity, Morocco houses the second greatest concentration of
terrestrial biodiversity in the Mediterranean basin and the greatest concentration of
marine biodiversity. The country has a wealth of different landscapes ranging from
forest to mountains, lush farmland and semi arid areas and desert.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism represent the basis of Morocco’s economic
and social policy. The country is thus highly dependent on its natural resources and
biodiversity, which significantly contribute to poverty alleviation. For example, nearly
all of the protected areas in Morocco have people living in them. These people have
farms, cultivate fields, raise cattle and get their firewood from the surrounding
forest. The government therefore aims to reconcile biodiversity conservation, a
rational exploitation of the natural resources and the legitimate interests of
traditional users. However, the management effectiveness of the protected areas
and the protection of the national biological richness of the country should be
significantly strengthened. The Forestry Service has apparently not enough resources
to develop and implement management plans for all the protected areas.
23
All ecosystems are under pressure and most are moderately-to-severely degraded.
The country’s biodiversity is threatened by population growth, rapid urbanisation
(combined with poor planning), water pollution, inadequate agriculture practices (in
particular overgrazing, resulting in soil erosion affecting than 70% of arable land, and
conversion of forest land for agricultural purposes), inadequate forestry practices
(overexploitation of firewood and many non-timber products), overfishing, transport
and unsustainable tourism. These social and economic developments result in
increasing desertification (nearly 80% of the land is at high risk), in a reduction of
forests, of wetlands and of natural ecosystems in general, and in the rapid extinction
of numerous plant and animal species. The impacts are exacerbated by climate
change.
Constraints to conservation include amongst other the open access status to most
resources (e.g., grazing lands, forests, coastal fisheries and freshwater aquatic
ecosystems). The state tries to regulate their use, but lacks the means and capacities.
Another constraining factor is that the individual, poorly organised, users of the
resources (e.g., people living in or nearby forests, coastal fishermen) are not involved
in their management and are systematically excluded from the direct financial
benefits of, for example, forest products.
Examples of measures taken to reduce the rate of biodiversity loss include, amongst
others, establishment of protected areas (10 national parks, designation of 24
Ramsar sites), establishment of fishing restrictions or implementation of
reforestation plans (e.g., King Mohammed VI launched in 2010 a project to plant one
million palm trees by 2015). Marine areas are generally poorly represented in the
protected areas network.
Forests cover approximately 7.2% of the Moroccan territory and shelter two thirds
of plants and one third of animal species (though only 3% of the forests is protected).
The reforestation rate is well below the optimal rate (15 to 20%) for maintaining a
basic, functioning level of ecosystem services and current management practices do
not allow natural regeneration. Forests have been suffering a disturbing degree of
degradation for several years, e.g., fragmentation, the undergrowth is overgrazed
and soils have become more vulnerable to water erosion. The forests play an
important social and economic role, with an estimated contribution of 5% to the
gross national agricultural product and 1% to the total gross national product.
Moreover, the rural population’s way of life depends to a large extent on material
benefits drawn from forests, e.g., 17% of national fodder production and 10 million
m³/year of fuel wood (i.e., 3 times more than the natural production capacity) and
timber. The most important contribution of Moroccan forests to the national
economy is certainly protection of the environment, especially the protection of soil
from erosion, the preservation of water resources in catchment areas and the
reduction of siltation in dams. It will be important for the country not to degrade the
existing forests in order not to lose the current benefits. Constraints to sustainable
forest management and some conservation measures taken are outlined above.
24
About 96% of the land area in Morocco suffers from some degree of human induced
land degradation. The main identified types of degradation are top soil losses from
water and wind erosion and chemical deterioration of the soil, largely caused by
agricultural activities, deforestation, and overgrazing. Poor soil quality leads to
reduced crop yields and soil erosion, which in turn leads to soil run-offs and
sedimentation of rivers and lakes.
Improving the natural environment will have significant benefits for the Moroccan
ecosystems. A healthier and well managed environment will in turn offer additional
opportunities for eco-tourism and improve the well being of the Moroccan
population. The country’s ecosystems are not only of high biodiversity value, but are
also key economic resources given their attractiveness for tourism and recreational
activities, and an important part of the country’s natural heritage.
The appropriate management and conservation of these ecosystems therefore will
have high benefits, both for the environment, the economy and society at large.
These benefits, up to 2020, are summarised below.
Nature
Monetary benefits
Health: opportunities for recreation
and relaxation; contribution to
reduction in vector-borne diseases;
soil erosion control reduces agrochemical run-offs, helps to reduce
pollution of drinking and bathing,
helps to reduce water sedimentation
of rivers and lakes
Carbon: 223 million tons
CO2 currently stored in
forests.
Carbon: value of carbon stored
in existing forests in 2010: €
13,900- 25,875 million
Crop yield increase from
reduced land degradation:
6-11%.
stock value in 2020: € 31.6-45.4
million.
Environment: ecosystem services such as water purification, carbon
storage and capture, food provision,
flood prevention and reduced soil
erosion.
Crop yield: value of increased
crop yield from reduced land
degradation:
€
684-1,313
million, i.e., 0.51-0.98% of 2020
GDP
Economic: eco-tourism; improved
crop yields, provision of wood
products (fibre, fuel) and non-wood
products (e.g., fruits); commercial
exploitation of the natural resources
(forestry, fishing, hunting, agriculture)
Social: opportunities for education
and
research;
community
development through involvement in
the management of protected areas.
25
With regard to climate change mitigation, in 2008 Morocco’s CO2 emissions from
energy use totalled 42M ton CO2, of which 35% came from electricity production.
Morocco is experiencing significant growth in CO2 emissions, due to economic
growth and rapid urbanisation. Power generation is primarily fuelled by fossil energy
sources, mainly oil (70%) but also coal and natural gas, which are all imported.
Renewable energy sources (RES) represented only 4% of the total energy production,
with a strong lead of energy from combustible renewables, followed by hydro
power.
A wider use of renewable sources would lead to multiple benefits, for the
environment first, as Morocco is likely to be severely affected by climate change, but
also for human health, as the reduction of air pollution from fossil fuel combustion
would reduce respiratory diseases.
Furthermore, an increased uptake of RES could have positive effects on employment
and would reduce Morocco’s dependence on foreign energy sources. The 2008
Energy Security Plan aims to reduce this dependence by increasing efficiency and by
harnessing the country’s huge potential for renewable solar and wind energy. The
2008 Mitigation Strategy sets a target of 12% RES for primary energy and of 42% RES
for electricity production.
An important social benefit of shifting to RES is the possibility to provide energy to
isolated locations not connected to the electricity grid. Since 1996, villages are being
equipped with small individual photovoltaic (PV) kits for decentralised power
production, which broadens their development opportunities, provides income
generation and provides social services like education and health care, food security.
While renewables themselves are non-polluting, the structures built to harness them
can have positive or negative environmental impacts. It is thus crucial to make sure
that possible impacts from RES on the local environment are avoided or mitigated.
Particularly relevant examples for Morocco are the construction of dams, which may
affect fish migration (but which may also create wildlife habitat) and significant
deforestation caused by biomass.
Significant benefits could also be brought forward by adaptation measures. It should
be noted that many of the benefits identified and assessed in the report for other
parameters (air, water, waste, nature) are common to those in the climate change
section of the report.
For example, water resources may be further threatened under climate change
effects. In this case, measures that alleviate pressure on water resources are also
likely to reduce climate change-induced water resource pressure.
26
Key potential climate change impacts in Morocco are related to the effects of sealevel rise, lack of water resources and decrease of agricultural productivity. The
reduction of snow cover on the Rif and Atlas mountains and changes in rainfall
distribution are indications of likely warming.
These impacts, which are to some extent interlinked, can affect biodiversity, the rate
of desertification, the food (in particular of the poor) and energy security (reduced
hydropower potential).
As noted above, nearly 80% of Morocco’s lands are at high risk of desertification,
which is caused by droughts, wild fires (fuelled by droughts and likely to become
more frequent and more severe as climate change progresses) that ravage an
average forest area of 3,600 ha per year, the intensification of agriculture and the
overuse of natural resources, in particular of forest resources. Desertification poses a
significant challenge, in particular for the poor rural population.
Since large zones of the coastal areas of Nador and Berkane are low lying land, sea
level rise may pose an important threat for people, coastal infrastructure, tourism
and natural heritages (e.g., for the wetlands of international importance classified as
RAMSAR Sites).
Unusually devastating floods have been recorded in Morocco in recent years. While
many of the smaller, localized floods went uncounted, 13 major flood events were
recorded during the last 20 years. The death toll for these events was 1,230.
For Morocco, the financial cost of adaptation will be significant. In most cases, such
as the coastal adaptation plans, benefits occur in the long run and early losses are
expected because of the large ‘kick-off’ investments that are needed.
However, adequate adaptation policies can limit climate change related damage to
key economic activities, like tourism and agriculture. They can also prevent or limit
the need for population relocation and safeguard food security, in particular for rural
children living in mountainous areas.
Key benefits from mitigation and adaptation, in particular for the poor, up to 2020
are outlined in the following table:
27
Climate
Change
Quantitative
benefits
Monetary benefits
Health: contributing to reduction of respiratory and
cardio-vascular diseases (RES reduce air pollution); less
heat strokes
Reduced emissions
from fossil fuels:
1,207.27 ktons CO2
eq
Value of reduced
CO2 emissions:
€ 47 – 68 million in
2020
Environment: reduced impacts from climate change to
the natural environment (e.g., maintaining of ground
water recharge, reduced soil/water salinisation,
reduced desertification, reduced erosion, reduced risks
of floods etc); reduced risk for low lying RAMSAR sites;
RES avoid GHG emissions and contribute to conserving
carbon sinks
Economic: energy security and reduced dependence on
foreign energy sources; reduced damage to agriculture
productivity (the potential for gain due to more
favourable conditions for crops could be offset by
increased risk of droughts; new combinations of pests
and diseases may emerge); reduced damage to the fish
stock; reduced damage to coastal infrastructure and
coastal tourism; reduced risk of forest fires
Social: provision of energy to isolated areas though RES
enabling local economic development; a general
improvement of the quality of life due to reduced
environmental, economic and health impacts
mentioned above.
Future benefit studies
As for future benefit studies on Morocco, these could focus on those areas where
immediate investment is needed, in order to assess which solutions will have the
highest benefits. Given the significance of water scarcity and water resource
management in Morocco, it is recommended that the economic benefits of water
resource management are further assessed as part of any future integrated water
resource management studies.
The direct benefits for the local population (e.g., income and job generation for the
poor, effects on education, creation of small and medium enterprises), and the link
between environmental improvements and sustainable development should be
further stressed, as these are key issues in developing countries. Other economic
benefits, such as the establishment of new industries and market creation should
also be further emphasised.
Other parameters and/or sub-topics could be included in future assessments for
Morocco, such as soil degradation, water use efficiency in agriculture (as part of
‘water scarcity’), industrial water pollution and transboundary issues (as part of
‘surface water quality’), use of fossil resources, energy efficiency.
28
Other parameters will benefit from the inclusion of additional indicators, once data
become available, such as the inclusion of PM2.5, ammonia (NH3) and hydrocarbons
(HC) in the ‘air quality’ parameter. The range of impacts and benefits analysed could
also be widened, for example by including a more detailed analysis of the effect of
climate change on agriculture productivity, migration and food security (under the
‘adaptation’ parameter).
Future studies could also investigate feasible measures to meet the targets, either
international or actual national targets. Further analysis will be needed on
institutional capacity and on technological, infrastructural, legal and policy options.
This could be complemented by capacity building and training workshops to
stimulate prioritisation and actual implementation of the measures identified.
Research should be conducted by, or in close collaboration with, national/local
experts, given that several problems are particularly localised in nature (e.g., air
quality in zone of Rabat-Casablanca, where most industries and vehicles are
concentrated). In addition, this would allow social and development issues to be
taken more closely into account (e.g. the role of informal collectors in waste
management, the implications for the use of fees and other market based
instruments).
29
RESUME
L'Union européenne (UE), représentée par la Commission européenne, a engagé un
consortium dirigé par ARCADIS Belgique N.V. afin d’entreprendre une analyse des
avantages sociaux et économiques de la protection accrue de l'environnement dans
les 16 pays couverts par la Politique européenne de voisinage (PEV) ainsi que la
Fédération de Russie.3 Les autres partenaires du consortium sont: Institute for
European Environmental Policy (IEEP), Ecologic Institute, Environmental Resources
Management Ltd. (ERM), Metroeconomica Ltd. ainsi que plusieurs experts
indépendants.
Ceci est le résumé du rapport sur l'évaluation des avantages pour le Maroc, qui a été
préparé par une équipe composée d'un expert de l'UE et un expert national, en
utilisant un manuel d'évaluation des avantages développées par le projet. Ce manuel
d'évaluation des avantages, qui était uniquement à l'origine pour un usage interne, a
été transformé en un manuel d'évaluation des avantages pour les responsables
politiques pour une plus large diffusion. Le manuel fournit une compréhension des
méthodologies appliquées pour l'évaluation des avantages.
Introduction
Le Maroc est un pays en développement avec une économie dépendante de son
secteur agricole et d’industries légères. Alors que la croissance économique a
toujours été entravée par la volatilité du secteur agricole largement dépendant des
pluies (plus de 80% du pays encoure un risque de désertification), la diversification a
rendu l'économie plus résiliente. Casablanca, où se situent 43% des industries, est le
principal centre industriel du pays. La troisième plus importante source de revenus
est le tourisme. La plupart de la population vit dans les plaines fertiles ou à proximité
de la côte méditerranéenne, qui souffrent d’une urbanisation rapide et souvent mal
planifiée. Environ la moitié de la population vit encore dans des zones rurales.
Le Maroc est confronté à plusieurs défis dans tous ses secteurs de l'environnement :
l'air (en particulier dans la région de Casablanca) ; l'eau (quantité et qualité) ; les
déchets (enfouissement inapproprié) ; et la nature (perte de biodiversité et érosion
des sols). Ces problèmes sont principalement causés par des activités humaines dont
certains seront exacerbés par le changement climatique. La forte croissance
démographique et du développement socio-économique ont mis la pression sur les
ressources naturelles qui s’est traduite par la dégradation environnementale. Ainsi,
la planification stratégique, la mise en œuvre et l'application des législations
environnementales, le renforcement institutionnel, les investissements dans les
technologies pertinentes pour l'environnement et le climat, la prise de conscience
pour ce qui est de l’environnement et la participation du public au processus
décisionnel, constituent des défis importants.
3
EuropeAid DCI-ENV/2009/225-962 (EC)
30
Le Maroc reconnaît que son développement futur dépend de la réduction des
dommages environnementaux et l'utilisation durable de ses ressources naturelles
existantes. La Charte Nationale pour l'Environnement et le Développement Durable
(2011) constitue le cadre législatif national pour ce qui est de l'environnement ainsi
que pour la future politique environnementale. Ainsi, il est prévu de donner une
impulsion à une gestion saine de l’environnement.
Le Maroc pourrait bénéficier d’avantages considérables s’il venait à prendre des
mesures immédiates pour remédier à ses problèmes environnementaux. Ces
avantages se traduiraient notamment par : l'amélioration de la santé ; la réduction
de la mortalité ; des gains économiques ; un potentiel accru pour de nouvelles
opportunités économiques ; ainsi que des gains généralisés pour ce qui est du bienêtre de la communauté.
Ce rapport fournit un premier aperçu de la valeur sociale et économique potentielle
découlant de ces améliorations dans tous les secteurs de l'environnement.
Cependant, les chiffres cités dans ce rapport ne sont qu'indicatifs, fondée sur une
évaluation rapide en utilisant souvent des données limitées et en se basant sur de
nombreuses hypothèses. En attendant des évaluations plus détaillées, il est prévu
que ce rapport puisse déjà aider à soutenir l'élaboration de politiques et des prises
de décisions éclairées sur les questions environnementales.
Les thèmes abordés sont la réduction de la pollution de l'air, l'accès à un réseau
d'eau potable qui soit fiable, le traitement des eaux usées et la qualité des eaux de
surface, la gestion des ressources en eau, le taux de couverture de la collecte des
déchets, le traitement des déchets, la désertification, la dégradation des terres
cultivées, la perte de la biodiversité et le manque de sources d'énergie
renouvelables.
Pour tous ces thèmes susmentionnés, un scénario 2008 de référence est établi, des
valeurs cibles pour 2020 sans aucune amélioration sont projetées, et les avantages
de la politique environnementale améliorée pour 2020 sont calculées reflétant ainsi
la réduction de la dégradation environnementale (50% en général). Selon la
disponibilité des données, des évaluations qualitatives, quantitatives et monétaires
ont ainsi été élaborées.
En prenant des mesures pour réduire les pressions décrites ci-dessus, des avantages
significatifs en découleront pour la santé, l'environnement, les aspects économiques
et les conditions sociales.
Evaluation des Avantages
Réduction de la pollution de l'air. La pollution de l’air a augmenté ces 20 dernières
années en raison du développement industriel et l'urbanisation rapide (couplé avec
une augmentation du trafic). Les industries responsables de la pollution
atmosphérique comprennent notamment les raffineries de pétrole et les centrales
31
électriques, mais aussi les unités de transformation du phosphate, les usines de
ciment, et les industries du fer et de l’acier. Les émissions des véhicules contribuent
jusqu'à 60% de la pollution de l'air au Maroc, en particulier dans la zone de RabatCasablanca, où plus de 50% des véhicules sont concentrés. Les émissions des
véhicules sont une source importante de pollution de l'air, en raison du nombre
croissant de véhicules vétustes, le manque de contrôle des émissions, l'utilisation de
la mauvaise qualité du carburant (avec une haute teneur en soufre et en plomb) et le
manque général d'entretien des moteurs. Les sources naturelles de pollution de l'air
comprennent, en particulier, la poussière et le sable.
Une corrélation a été trouvée entre la pollution atmosphérique et le poids de la
santé dans un certain nombre de villes. Les études épidémiologiques menées à
Casablanca, Mohammedia et Safi ont montré des corrélations entre la pollution
atmosphérique et l'augmentation des infections respiratoires, la bronchite, l'asthme
et la mortalité prématurée. La mortalité, par exemple, a augmenté de 2% due à
l'accroissement des concentrations de PM10 de 22 μg/m³.
La qualité de l'air est désormais une préoccupation majeure dans les centres urbains,
comme Casablanca, Rabat, El Jadida et Safi, où non seulement la plupart des
industries, mais aussi la plupart des véhicules, sont concentrés.
L'amélioration de la qualité de l'air devrait conduire à des avantages notamment en
termes de réduction des maladies respiratoires, maladies cardio-vasculaires et de la
mortalité prématurée. Les avantages pour l'environnement naturel et le patrimoine
culturel du pays sont également attendus, par exemple grâce à la réduction : de
dommages à des espèces végétales et associées aux dépôts de suie sur les matériaux
de construction; de l'acidification ; et de l'eutrophisation des écosystèmes (qui peut
affecter les ressources économiquement importantes telles que la pêche). Il a y eu
récemment une augmentation de la prise de conscience concernant les impacts
variés et complexes de la pollution de l'air et les avantages découlant de la prise de
mesures. Les secteurs public et privé prennent un plus grand intérêt à considérer des
mesures préventives et une approche plus proactive pour lutter contre la pollution
de l'air notamment par le biais d’une production plus propre.
Les principaux avantages potentiels de l'amélioration de la qualité de l'air qui se
présentent en 2020 (année «cible» de l'étude) sont comme suit:
32
Avantage Qualitatif
Air
Avantage
Quantitatif
Santé: Réduction des maladies cardiovasculaires
et respiratoires, ce qui entraîne un coût
économique important dont un coût pour
l'économie (jours d'activité restreinte) et aux
services nationaux de santé
Environnement: Réduction des dommages aux
écosystèmes et cultures
Économique: la production agricole améliorée;
emplois dans les technologies vertes
Social: réduction des dégâts aux bâtiments
(dépôts de suie sur les matériaux de
construction) et au patrimoine culturel
Santé
Au niveau
national: 4.400
cas de décès
évités; 8.500
cas de
morbidité
évités
Au niveau
régional et
global: 1.750
décès évités
Avantage Monétaire
Santé et économique:
total des avantages
nationaux (santé,
cultures, matériaux):
1,768 millions d’€ PPA
par an, soit 1,3% du PIB
de 2020
Le Maroc jouit d’un climat aride et la gestion de l'eau est un facteur clé dans l'avenir
du pays. De pluies rares et inégalement réparties ont fait de l'eau un enjeu clé du
développement économique et social. Le pays fait face à des défis dans la gestion et
l'utilisation de ses ressources en eau de manière plus durable, ainsi que dans le
développement de l'approvisionnement équitable et efficace des services d’eau et
des services d'assainissement.
Pour ce qui est de l'eau potable en 2008, 98% de la population urbaine avait un
accès permanent à une eau potable améliorée (91% par des réseaux municipaux et
9% par des bornes fontaines publiques). Seulement 60% de la population rurale
utilisait des sources améliorées d'eau potable, contre 55% en 1990. La situation n'a
donc pas été significativement améliorée au cours des dernières décennies et le
pourcentage reste faible.
L’adduction d'eau à partir d'un réseau central de distribution permet le traitement
de l'eau et la surveillance de la qualité de l'eau. Si la source d'eau est généralement
de bonne qualité et les réseaux de distribution par canalisations fonctionnent de
manière adéquate, un tel système d'alimentation en eau a le potentiel de fournir
l'eau potable avec un risque minimal de maladie. La priorité devrait donc être
donnée à l'investissement dans les réseaux de distribution par canalisation, le
traitement et la désinfection, le contrôle régulier de la qualité et la fourniture d'eau
de manière régulière.
En ce qui concerne la connexion au réseau d'égout, en 2008, 81% de la population
urbaine et seulement 52% de la population rurale utilisaient des installations
d'assainissement améliorées. La situation dans les zones rurales s’est
considérablement améliorée au cours des dernières décennies, étant donné que, en
1990, seulement 27% utilisait des installations sanitaires améliorées, même si le
pourcentage est encore faible. Un problème particulier concernant l’eau et
l'assainissement se produit dans les zones périurbaines des principales villes du
Maroc, où environ 2 millions de Marocains demeurent sans accès à
l'approvisionnement en eau et/ou à des services d'assainissement. La connexion à un
33
réseau d'égouts offre la possibilité de minimiser la pollution de l'eau et des
ressources terrestres par le traitement central des eaux usées.
Moins de 30% des eaux usées collectées sont traitées dans les usines de traitement
des eaux usées. Peu de villes marocaines ont des stations d'épuration
opérationnelles. La plupart des eaux usées sont déversées directement, sans
traitement approprié, dans les rivières et la mer (souvent directement sur la plage ou
à travers les oueds) ou à même le sol. Ainsi, les infrastructures pour la gestion des
eaux usées sont nettement insuffisantes.
Les résidents, qui n'ont pas accès à un approvisionnement en eau adéquat,
obtiennent leur eau : de puits peu profonds qui sont contaminés ; de fournisseurs
d'eau (qui facturent souvent un prix unitaire relativement élevé) ; ou de bornes
fontaines, qui nécessitent souvent à ce que des femmes ou des enfants fassent la
queue pendant plusieurs heures. Les ménages qui n'ont pas accès aux services de
base utilisent des fosses sauvages ou septiques mal conçues, ce qui risque une
contamination croissante des eaux souterraines peu profondes. Par ailleurs,
beaucoup de pauvres restent sans aucune forme d'assainissement. Ces lacunes
affectent directement la santé des gens et leur capacité à s'engager dans des
activités génératrices de revenus ou, pour les enfants d’aller à l'école.
Bien que le principal problème de pollution du Maroc soit la contamination des
sources d'eau avec les eaux usées brutes, la pollution industrielle devient un
problème croissant. Les eaux usées industrielles sont en général rejetées sans
traitement à la mer, soit dans le réseau d'égouts urbains ou directement dans les
oueds (lits de rivières à sec). Très peu d'installations industrielles exploitent leurs
stations d'épuration avec succès, par conséquent les rejets industriels représentent
une grave menace pour la qualité de l'environnement marin côtier surtout lorsque
ce dernier se situe à proximité des zones urbaines et industrielles. Les accidents
industriels ont contribué à la contamination de l'environnement et sont de plus en
plus communs. Les pétroliers cabotant le long des côtes du Maroc sont également
une source importante de pollution des eaux côtières. La pollution agricole et les
eaux de ruissellement provenant des sites d'enfouissement de déchets solides sont
d'autres causes importantes de pollution de l'eau.
La pollution de la Méditerranée et des eaux côtières de l'Atlantique constitue un
important problème environnemental transfrontalier qui affecte le Maroc. Les
partenaires euro-méditerranéens, qui comprend notamment le Maroc, se sont
réunis dans le cadre de l’"Initiative Horizon 2020". L'objectif est de dépolluer la
Méditerranée d'ici l'an 2020 en s'attaquant aux sources de pollution qui
représentent environ 80% de la pollution globale de la mer Méditerranée.
Les eaux intérieures et côtières sont donc exposées à plusieurs sources de
contamination, en particulier des procédés industriels et agricoles et des rejets
d'eaux usées. La qualité de l'eau, qui entrave aussi le développement du tourisme,
34
est l'une des questions environnementales et de santé les plus pressantes dans le
pays.
La pénurie d'eau est une question clé, étant donné le climat aride du Maroc (plus de
90% du pays est classé comme aride ou semi-aride) et les ressources limitées en eau.
Les ressources en eau du pays sont en train de progressivement s'épuiser en raison
de la croissance démographique, la pollution, l’irrigation inefficace (l'agriculture
représente une part importante de la consommation totale d'eau), les pluies
irrégulières et la sédimentation des réservoirs. En outre, les ressources en eau sont
inégalement réparties sur le pays: l'eau est relativement abondante dans le nord,
tandis que l'eau est rare dans les zones situées principalement dans le sud. La
menace du changement climatique est considérée comme susceptible d'exacerber
plusieurs de ces questions, en particulier en augmentant la fréquence, la durée et la
gravité des événements extrêmes, tels que les sécheresses et les inondations.
Améliorer la qualité des eaux et des infrastructures devrait conduire à des avantages
importants pour la santé, notamment en termes de réduction des maladies
hydriques. La qualité des écosystèmes sera également améliorée (par exemple la
réduction de l'eutrophisation) et d'autres avantages économiques et sociaux vont
suivre comme par exemple des bénéfices tirés du tourisme ou une fréquentation
scolaire plus élevée, en particulier pour les filles --si les écoles rurales venaient à être
approvisionnées en eau et équipées d'un assainissement adéquat.
Bon nombre d’avantages liés à l'approvisionnement en eau fiable (canalisations) et
au raccordement aux réseaux d'égouts est difficile à quantifier. Une indication de
certains avantages sociaux liés au raccordement aux réseaux d'égout (ou un
assainissement amélioré dans les zones rurales isolées) se traduit par un gain de
temps considérable, et une commodité et un statut social accrus pour les 17% de la
population qui exerce actuellement la défécation en pleine nature. De même,
assurer des sources locales d'eau se traduit également par un gain de temps
considérable, en réduisant le temps nécessaire pour les corvées d'eau et les tâches
ménagères, et se traduisant ainsi un impact positif sur la fréquentation scolaire des
filles. Un projet de financement international au Maroc a réussi à augmenter la
scolarisation des filles dans six provinces de 20% sur 4 ans, en partie attribuable à la
réduction du fardeau qui pesait sur les jeunes filles pour aller chercher de l'eau.
35
Ces avantages, jusqu'en 2020, sont résumés ci-dessous.
Eau
Avantages Qualitatif
Avantages Quantitatif
Avantages Monétaire
Santé: les maladies hydriques sont
réduites, la réduction des taux de
mortalité infantile, qui sont encore élevés
et qui sont directement liés à l'eau
potable.
Environnement: rivière améliorée / qualité
des eaux côtières; réduction de
l'eutrophisation, la qualité des eaux
souterraines améliorée (fosses sauvages et
de fosses septiques mal conçues risquent
de contaminer les eaux souterraines peu
profondes)
Économique: réduction des coûts de
traitement pour l'eau potable; réduction
des coûts de l'eau propre pour l'industrie,
les possibilités de réutilisation de l'eau
dans l'agriculture, l'augmentation de la
satisfaction des touristes, l’augmentation
du rendement halieutique; gains
significatifs de la production agricole si
l'utilisation de l'eau agricole et d'irrigation
sont mieux gérés.
Social: les conditions de vie améliorées en
particulier des pauvres; amélioration de la
santé augmente la capacité de s'engager
dans des activités génératrices de revenus;
fréquentation scolaire augmente, si les
écoles ont accès à une eau potable de
qualité et à l'assainissement; économies
de temps des ménages connectes aux
réseaux et ces gains de temps peuvent
être utilisés pour des activités génératrices
de revenus pour les adultes et une
meilleure éducation pour les enfants
Santé : Réduction
moyenne de maladies
diarrhéiques et des
décès:
- de 33% si toute la
population a de bonnes
pratiques hygiénique ;
et
- de 65% si les pratiques
d'hygiène peuvent
généralement être
sensiblement améliorée.
Santé: entre 672-1,333 millions
d’€ PPA pour moins de cas de
maladies d'origine
hydrique/décès, soit 0,5-1,0%
du PIB de 2020
Social: entre 242,5-1.117,5
millions d’€ PPP pour le
consentement à payer (CAP)
pour la qualité des eaux de
surface améliorée, soit 0,19 à
0,86% du PIB de 2020 (quelques
chevauchements avec la
monétisation ci-dessus).
Déchets : Les déchets sont un important problème environnemental et de santé au
Maroc qui nécessite une attention urgente de la part des décideurs. Les déchets
solides municipaux (DSM) posent un problème important au même titre que les
déchets industriels et les déchets dangereux (par exemple les déchets médicaux). Le
Maroc génère plus de 5 millions de tonnes de déchets urbains par an dans les zones
urbaines, et 1,5 millions de tonnes dans les zones rurales, ce qui équivaut à une
moyenne de 205 kg/personne/année. Les principales questions relatives aux DSM
comprennent: la production de déchets augmente (avec l’amélioration du niveau de
vie), une mauvaise politique de gestion des déchets (axé principalement sur la
«propreté» avec une attention limitée à l'élimination des déchets et au recyclage), le
36
manque de politiques de recouvrement des coûts et donc d'un financement
suffisant, le manque d'expertise technique, la coopération insuffisante entre les
municipalités, la collecte inefficace et partielle, l'élimination inappropriée des
déchets (pas de décharges contrôlées), la mauvaise rentabilité des partenariats
public-privé (principalement due à une concurrence limitée, manque de
transparence et de responsabilisation insuffisante) et un faible niveau de
sensibilisation du public (comme en témoigne largement les détritus jetés dans la
nature). La responsabilité élargie des producteurs dont les produits arrivent à la fin
de leur durée de vie n'a pas encore été introduite.
Les autorités locales ont l'obligation légale de collecter et d'éliminer les déchets
ménagers, mais souvent, elles ne peuvent cependant pas faire face aux taches qui
leur sont imparties en termes de protection de l'environnement et d'élimination des
déchets. Il est estimé que 82% de la population urbaine et seulement 20% de la
population rurale sont couverts par les services de collecte. Lorsque les taux de
collecte est faible, les décharges sauvages surgissent et les paysages naturels et les
sites culturels sont généralement jonchés d’ordures.
Presque tous les DSM collectées sont envoyées à l'enfouissement, car il n'y a pas
d’incinérateur et le recyclage est sous-développé. La plupart des décharges (qui sont
souvent sauvages et non-contrôlées) ne répondent pas aux exigences fondamentales
de l'environnement et sont une source importante de la pollution de l'air (due à des
gaz, la poussière et les mauvaises odeurs), des eaux souterraines (par le biais des
lixiviats) et des eaux de surface (par ruissellement). Les décharges sauvages créent
des risques de propagation de maladies et de parasites. L’ébouage sauvage est un
problème, avec des risques de santé et de sécurité pour les ramasseurs informels.
L'absence d'un système de gestion rationnelle des déchets est problématique, non
seulement d'un point de vue esthétique et économique (par exemple le potentiel
touristique réduit), mais aussi d’un point de vue sanitaire.
L’évaluation indique que l'amélioration de la collecte des déchets d'ici 2020 sera de
prévenir environ 4,18 millions de tonnes de déchets d’être déversés, chaque année,
ce qui réduit l'impact négatif se rapportant à l’environnement et à la santé. Les
avantages socio-économiques se matérialisent par l'augmentation de l’emploi et du
niveau de service, et donc par une satisfaction accrue.
Les déchets ne sont généralement pas collectés séparément des points de collecte,
ce qui réduit les possibilités de recyclage. Les installations centrales de compostage
n'existent pas. En fait, seule une fraction mineure des DSM collectées sont recyclées.
Les déchets qui sont pour la plupart recyclés sont : le papier, les métaux, le plastique
et le verre. Dans le secteur du recyclage informel, les ramasseurs informels de
déchets récupèrent des éléments précieux avant la collecte des déchets ou sur les
sites d'enfouissement. La Banque mondiale estime qu'en 2008, environ 3.500
ramasseurs informels, dont 10% étaient des enfants, vivaient sur et autour des 300
décharges sauvages et dépotoirs à ciel ouvert. Les initiatives d'inclusion des
ramasseurs informels sont maintenant prises à Tanger, Casablanca, Rabat et Agadir.
37
La quantité de déchets recyclés atteint environ 305,100 tonnes par an, ce qui
représente 30% des déchets recyclables et 10% de la quantité totale de déchets.
Ce n'est que récemment que la collecte du biogaz et des systèmes de torchage ont
été installés dans certains sites d'enfouissement (Salé et Fès) et le Maroc entend
commencer à utiliser le gaz méthane pour la production d'énergie. La récupération
et l'utilisation du méthane provenant des décharges peuvent réduire
considérablement les émissions globales de gaz à effet de serre. Où la production
d'électricité est impossible, le torchage serait préférable à la ventilation directe afin
de réduire les émissions et les risques d'incendie.
La gestion des déchets est un domaine dans lequel les autorités ont un grand
potentiel pour améliorer la qualité de la santé publique, préserver les ressources
naturelles grâce à des taux de recyclage accru, qui permettront d'atténuer les effets
du changement climatique. La plupart des déchets pourrait être convertie en
ressource pouvant aussi bien réduire le volume final des déchets que le coût de leur
élimination finale, et ainsi économiser les ressources naturelles. Cela exige un
changement des pratiques existantes concernant les déchets et la mise en œuvre de
stratégies visant à la prévention des déchets, à la collecte sélective, au recyclage, au
compostage et au traitement des déchets avant leur élimination finale. Une
meilleure gestion des déchets va créer des emplois et générer des revenus, avec une
plus grande création d’emplois dans le recyclage que dans l'enfouissement ou
l'incinération des déchets.
Les principaux avantages potentiels se rapportant à l'amélioration de la gestion des
déchets, qui se présentent d'ici 2020 (le projet «cible» par an), sont comme suit:
Déchets
Avantage Qualitatif
Avantage Quantitatif
Santé: réduction des maladies
hydriques liées aux rejets à proximité
des cours d'eau et des mauvaises
conditions d'hygiène
Environnement: réduction de la
pollution des sols, des eaux de surface
et souterraines, et amélioration de la
qualité de l'air améliorée; réduction
des émissions de GES
Économique: l'emploi local dans le
secteur des déchets ; l'augmentation
de la satisfaction des touristes; le
potentiel de production énergétique à
partir de déchets; potentiel de
recyclage, qui préserve les ressources
naturelles et économise l'énergie
Social: amélioration des conditions de
vie
Terrain : 1.960.784 m² de terrain
pollué évité
Emplois: 1.430 jours par année
de travail pour les emplois
supplémentaires de collecte des
déchets ainsi que des emplois en
gestion et de soutien. Des
techniques et des politiques plus
adéquates, tels que la mise en
place de systèmes et une
collection hebdomadaire
peuvent positivement influencer
la création d'emplois.
Emplois: 618 emplois
supplémentaires pour le
traitement des déchets, le
recyclage et le compostage GES:
478.850.238 m³ de réduction
d’émissions de méthane
38
Avantage Monétaire
Salaire : 11 millions d’€
pour le salaire total
d'emplois
supplémentaires de
collecte des déchets
Collection: 217,4 millions
d’€ PPA basés sur le CAP
pour l’amélioration de la
collecte des déchets
GES: de 317,5 à 455,9
millions d’€ pour la
réduction des émissions
de méthane en 2020
En termes de biodiversité, le Maroc abrite la deuxième plus grande concentration de
biodiversité terrestre dans le bassin méditerranéen et la plus grande concentration
de la biodiversité marine. Le pays a une richesse de paysages différents, allant de la
forêt à la montagne, aux terres agricoles luxuriantes, aux zones semi-arides et
désertiques.
L’agriculture, la foresterie, la pêche et le tourisme représentent le fondement de la
politique économique et sociale du Maroc. Le pays est donc très dépendant sur ses
ressources naturelles et sur la biodiversité, qui tous deux contribuent de manière
significative à la réduction de la pauvreté. Par exemple, des gens vivent dans presque
toutes les zones protégées du Maroc. Ces personnes ont des fermes, cultivent les
champs, élèvent du bétail et obtiennent leur bois de forêts environnantes. Le
gouvernement vise donc à concilier la conservation de la biodiversité, une
exploitation rationnelle des ressources naturelles et les intérêts légitimes des
usagers traditionnels. Toutefois, l'efficacité de la gestion des aires protégées et la
protection de la richesse biologique nationale du pays devraient être
considérablement renforcées. Le Service des forêts n'a apparemment pas assez de
ressources pour élaborer et appliquer des plans de gestion pour toutes les zones
protégées.
Tous les écosystèmes subissent des pressions et la plupart sont modérément à
sévèrement dégradés. La biodiversité du pays est menacée par la croissance
démographique, l'urbanisation rapide (combiné avec une mauvaise planification), la
pollution de l'eau, les pratiques agricoles inadéquates (en particulier pour ce qui est
du surpâturage, résultant de l'érosion des sols affectant 70% des terres arables, et la
conversion de terres forestières à des fins agricoles), les pratiques sylvicoles
inadéquates (surexploitation du bois de chauffage et de nombreux produits non
ligneux), la surpêche, les transports et le tourisme non durable. Ces développements
sociaux et économiques se traduisent par une désertification croissante (près de 80%
des terres sont à haut risque), une réduction des forêts, des zones humides et des
écosystèmes naturels en général, et à l'extinction rapide de nombreuses espèces
végétales et animales. Les impacts sont exacerbés par le changement climatique.
Les contraintes de la conservation comprennent entre autres le statut de libre accès
à la plupart des ressources (pâturages, forêts, pêcheries côtières et écosystèmes
aquatiques d'eau douce). L'Etat essaie de réguler leur utilisation, mais manque de
moyens et de capacités. Un autre facteur contraignant est que les utilisateurs
individuels, mal organisés (par exemple les personnes vivant dans ou à proximité des
forêts, les pêcheurs côtiers), ne sont pas impliqués dans la gestion des ressources et
sont systématiquement exclus des bénéfices financiers directs, par exemple, les
produits forestiers.
Les exemples de mesures prises pour réduire le taux de perte de biodiversité
comprennent, entre autres, l'établissement de zones protégées (10 parcs nationaux,
la désignation de 24 sites Ramsar), l'établissement de restrictions touchant la pêche
ou la mise en œuvre de plans de reboisement (par exemple le Roi Mohammed VI a
39
lancé en 2010 un projet pour planter un million de palmiers en 2015). Cependant, les
zones marines sont généralement mal représentées dans le réseau d'aires protégées.
Les forêts couvrent environ 7,2% du territoire marocain et abritent deux tiers des
plantes et un tiers des espèces animales (mais seulement 3% des forêts sont
protégées). Le taux de reboisement est bien en deçà du taux optimal (15 à 20%) pour
le maintien d'un niveau minimal de fonctionnement des services éco-systémiques.
Par ailleurs, les pratiques de gestion actuelles ne permettent pas la régénération
naturelle. Les forêts ont atteint un degré inquiétant de dégradation depuis plusieurs
années, par exemple la fragmentation, les sous-bois souffrent de surpâturage et les
sols sont devenus plus vulnérables à l'érosion hydrique. Les forêts jouent un
important rôle social et économique, avec une contribution estimée de 5% au
produit intérieur brut agricole nationale représentant 1% du produit national brut.
Par ailleurs, le mode de vie de la population rurale dépend dans une large mesure
des avantages matériels tirés des forêts, par exemple 17% de la production
fourragère nationale et 10 millions de m³ de bois par an de bois de chauffe (c'est à
dire trois fois plus que la capacité de production naturelle). La contribution la plus
importante des forêts marocaines à l'économie nationale est certainement la
protection de l'environnement, notamment la protection des sols contre l'érosion, la
préservation des ressources en eau dans les bassins versants et la réduction de
l'envasement des barrages. Il sera important pour le pays à ne pas dégrader les
forêts existantes afin de ne pas perdre les avantages actuels. Certaines contraintes
relatives à la gestion durable des forêts et des mesures de conservation prises sont
décrites ci-dessus.
Environ 96% de la superficie au Maroc souffre d'un certain degré de dégradation des
terres induite par l'homme. Les principaux types de dégradation identifiés sont les
pertes de la couverture du sol dues à l'érosion hydrique et éolienne, la dégradation
chimique du sol, en grande partie causée par les activités agricoles, la déforestation
et le surpâturage. La mauvaise qualité des sols conduit à des rendements réduits des
cultures et une érosion accrue des sols, qui entraîne à son tour un ruissellement
important et la sédimentation des rivières et des lacs.
Améliorer l'environnement naturel aura des retombées importantes pour les
écosystèmes marocains. Un environnement plus sain et bien géré, à son tour, offre
des possibilités supplémentaires pour l'éco-tourisme et l’amélioration du bien-être
de la population marocaine. Les écosystèmes du pays sont non seulement riches en
biodiversité, mais sont aussi les principales ressources économiques étant donné
leur attractivité pour les activités récréatives et touristiques, et constituent une
partie importante du patrimoine naturel du pays.
La gestion appropriée et la conservation de ces écosystèmes auront donc des
avantages élevés, tant pour l'environnement, l'économie et la société au sens large.
Ces avantages, jusqu'en 2020, sont résumés ci-dessous.
40
Avantage Qualitatif
Nature
Santé: des possibilités de loisirs et de
détente; contribution à la réduction
des maladies transmises par des
vecteurs, le contrôle de l'érosion des
sols réduisant le ruissellement agrochimique ; contribution à la réduction
de la pollution de l’eau potable et
l’eau de baignade ; contribution à la
réduction de la sédimentation de l'eau
des rivières et des lacs
Environnement: les services des
écosystèmes - tels que la purification
de l'eau, la capture et le stockage du
carbone, l'approvisionnement
alimentaire, la prévention des
inondations et l'érosion des sols.
Économique: l'éco-tourisme;
rendements améliorés, la fourniture
de produits du bois (fibres,
carburants) et de produits forestiers
non ligneux (fruits, par exemple);
l'exploitation commerciale des
ressources naturelles (foresterie,
pêche, chasse, agriculture)
Social: les possibilités d'éducation et
de recherche ; développement par
l'implication communautaire dans la
gestion des aires protégées.
Avantage
Quantitatif
Carbone: 223
millions de tonnes
de CO2
actuellement
stocké dans les
forêts.
Augmentation du
rendement des
cultures du fait de
la réduction de la
dégradation des
sols: 6-11%.
Avantage Monétaire
Carbone: la valeur du
carbone stocké dans les
forêts existantes en 2010
est de : 13.900 – 25.875
millions d’€
la valeur de stockage en
2020 est de: 31,6 à 45,4
millions d’€.
Rendement des cultures:
la valeur de rendement
des cultures a augmenté
du fait de la réduction de
la dégradation des terres
réduit: € 684-1,313
millions d’€ PPA, c'est à
dire de 0,51 à 0,98% du
PIB de 2020
En ce qui concerne l'atténuation du changement climatique, en 2008 les émissions
de CO2 du Maroc dus à l'utilisation de l'énergie ont totalisé 42 millions de tonnes de
CO2, dont 35% proviennent de la production d'électricité. Le Maroc connaît une
croissance importante de ses émissions de CO2, en raison de la croissance
économique et l'urbanisation rapide. La production d'électricité est principalement
alimentée par des sources d'énergie fossiles, notamment le pétrole (70%), mais aussi
la houille et le gaz naturel, qui sont tous importés. Les sources d'énergie
renouvelables (SER) ne représentaient que 4% de la production totale d'énergie,
avec une forte croissance des combustibles renouvelables, suivie par l'énergie
hydroélectrique.
Une plus large utilisation des sources renouvelables conduirait à de multiples
avantages, principalement pour l’environnement, le Maroc étant susceptible d'être
gravement touchés par le changement climatique, mais aussi pour la santé humaine,
comme la réduction de la pollution de l'air provenant de la combustion de
41
combustibles fossiles permettrait de réduire les maladies respiratoires. Par ailleurs,
une utilisation accrue des énergies renouvelables pourrait avoir des effets positifs
sur l'emploi et réduiraient la dépendance du Maroc aux sources d'énergie
étrangères. Le plan de 2008 sur la sécurité énergétique vise à réduire cette
dépendance en augmentant l'efficacité et en exploitant un potentiel énorme du pays
pour l'énergie renouvelable tant solaire qu’éolienne. La stratégie d'atténuation de
2008 fixe un objectif de 12% de SER pour l'énergie primaire et de 42% de SER pour la
production d'électricité.
Un autre avantage social important lié au passage à des SER est la possibilité de
fournir l'énergie aux endroits isolés non raccordés au réseau d'électricité. Depuis
1996, les villages sont équipés de petits kits photovoltaïques (PV) individuels pour la
production d'énergie décentralisée, ce qui élargit leurs possibilités de
développement, permet la génération de revenus et fournit des services sociaux
comme l'éducation et les soins de santé, et assure la sécurité alimentaire.
Alors que les énergies renouvelables sont elles-mêmes non-polluantes, les structures
d’exploitation qui sont construites peuvent avoir des effets positifs ou négatifs sur
l'environnement. Il est donc crucial de s'assurer que les impacts possibles à partir des
SER sur l'environnement local sont évités ou atténués. Des exemples
particulièrement pertinents pour le Maroc sont la construction de barrages, qui
peuvent affecter la migration des poissons (mais qui peut aussi créer des habitats
fauniques) et une importante déforestation causée par la biomasse.
D’autres avantages importants pourraient être perçus grâce à des mesures
d'adaptation. Il est à noter que bon nombre d’avantages identifiés et évalués dans le
rapport pour d'autres paramètres (air, eau, déchets, nature) sont aussi communs à
ceux de la section du changement climatique dans le rapport.
Par exemple, les ressources en eau peuvent en outre être menacées en vertu des
effets liés au changement climatique. Dans ce cas, des mesures qui allègent la
pression sur les ressources en eau sont également susceptibles de réduire la pression
sur les ressources en eau induite par le changement climatique.
Les principaux impacts potentiels dus au changement climatique au Maroc sont liés
aux effets de l'élévation accélérée du niveau de la mer, le manque de ressources en
eau et la diminution de la productivité agricole. La réduction de la couverture de
neige sur les montagnes du Rif et l'Atlas et des changements dans la répartition des
pluies sont des indications de réchauffement probable. Ces impacts, qui sont dans
une certaine mesure interdépendants, peuvent affecter la biodiversité, le taux de
désertification, la nourriture (en particulier la sécurité alimentaire des pauvres) et la
sécurité énergétique (réduction du potentiel hydroélectrique).
Comme indiqué plus haut, près de 80% des terres au Maroc sont à haut risque de
désertification, qui est causée par les sécheresses, les feux sauvages (alimentée par
les sécheresses et susceptibles de devenir plus fréquentes et plus sévères à mesure
42
que progresse le changement climatique) qui ravagent une zone forestière moyenne
de 3.600 ha par an, l'intensification de l'agriculture et la surexploitation des
ressources naturelles, en particulier des ressources forestières. La désertification
pose un défi important, en particulier pour les populations rurales pauvres.
Comme les zones côtières de Nador et de Berkane affichent une légère élévation par
rapport au niveau de la mer, l'élévation accélérée du niveau de la mer pourraient
constituer une menace importante pour les personnes, les infrastructures, le
tourisme côtier et les patrimoines naturels (par exemple pour les zones humides
d'importance internationale classées comme sites Ramsar).
Des inondations exceptionnellement dévastatrices ont été enregistrées au Maroc ces
dernières années. Alors que beaucoup des plus petites inondations localisées sont
incalculables, 13 grandes inondations ont été enregistrées au cours des 20 dernières
années. Le bilan de ces événements s’est notamment soldé par la mort de 1.230
personnes.
Pour le Maroc, le coût financier de l'adaptation au changement climatique sera
important. Dans la plupart des cas, tels que les plans d'adaptation côtière, les
avantages se produisent sur le long terme mais des pertes sont attendues sur le
court terme à cause de l’importance des investissements qui sont nécessaires.
Cependant, des politiques adéquates d'adaptation peuvent limiter les dommages liés
au changement climatique touchant des activités économiques clé, comme le
tourisme et l'agriculture.
Elles peuvent aussi prévenir ou limiter la nécessité de la relocalisation de la
population et garantir la sécurité alimentaire, en particulier pour les enfants des
zones rurales vivant dans les zones montagneuses.
43
Les principaux avantages de l'atténuation et de l'adaptation, en particulier pour les
pauvres, à l'horizon 2020 sont décrits ci-dessous.
Changement
climatique
Avantage Qualitatif
Avantage
Quantitatif
Santé: contribution à la réduction des maladies
respiratoires et cardio-vasculaires (RES réduit la
pollution atmosphérique); réduction des
évanouissements à cause des bouffées de
chaleur
Environnement: réduction des impacts du
changement climatique sur l'environnement
naturel (par exemple le maintien de la recharge
des eaux souterraines, la réduction la salinisation
du sol/eau, réduction de la désertification,
réduction de l'érosion, la réduction des risques
d'inondations, etc.), réduction des risques
d’engloutissement de sites RAMSAR; SER évitent
les émissions de GES et contribuent à la
conservation de stockage de carbone
Économique: augmentation de la sécurité
énergétique et réduction de la dépendance sur
les sources d'énergie étrangères, réduction de la
productivité agricole (le potentiel de gain due à
des conditions plus favorables pour les cultures
pourrait être compensé par un risque accru de
sécheresse; une combinaison de ravageurs et de
nouvelles maladies peuvent émerger), réduction
des dégâts infligés aux stocks de poissons,
réduction des dégâts aux infrastructures côtières
et au tourisme côtier, réduction des risques
d'incendies de forêt
Social: les SER permettent la fourniture d'énergie
aux zones isolées augmentant le développement
économique local; une amélioration générale de
la qualité de vie grâce à la réduction des impacts
environnementaux, économiques et de santé
mentionnés ci-dessus.
Réduction des
émissions
provenant des
combustibles
fossiles:
l'équivalent de
1,207.3
ktonnes
de
CO2
Avantage
Monétaire
Valeur de la
réduction des
émissions de
CO2:
€ 47-68
millions d’€.
Conclusion
Des études permettant de dégager des avantages sociaux futurs au Maroc
pourraient se concentrer dans les domaines où les investissements immédiats sont
nécessaires et sont sélectionnées selon des critères d’efficience. Ces études
devraient tenir compte du caractère régional de certains problèmes
environnementaux pressants. Étant donné l'importance de la pénurie d'eau et la
gestion des ressources en eau au Maroc, il est recommandé à ce que les avantages
économiques de la gestion des ressources en eau soient encore évalués dans le
cadre de toutes les études futures de gestion intégrée des ressources.
44
Les avantages directs pour la population locale (par exemple la génération de revenu
et la création d'emplois pour les pauvres, la création de petites et moyennes
entreprises), et le lien entre l'amélioration de l'environnement et le développement
durable devrait être davantage souligné. D’autres avantages économiques, comme la
création de nouvelles industries et la création de marchés devraient également être
davantage soulignés.
D'autres paramètres et/ou sous-thèmes pourraient être inclus dans les évaluations
futures au Maroc, tels que la dégradation des sols, l'utilisation efficace de l'eau dans
l'agriculture (dans le cadre de la «pénurie d'eau»), la pollution des eaux industrielles
et les questions transfrontalières (sous le paramètre qualité de l'eau de surface),
l'utilisation des ressources fossiles, et l'efficacité énergétique. D'autres paramètres
devraient bénéficier de l'inclusion d'indicateurs supplémentaires, une fois que les
données deviennent disponibles, comme l'inclusion des PM 2.5, l'ammoniac (NH3) et
les hydrocarbures (HC) dans le paramètre qualité de l'air. La gamme des impacts et
des avantages analysée pourrait également être élargie, par exemple en incluant une
analyse plus détaillée des effets dus au changement climatique sur la productivité
agricole, la migration et la disponibilité de nourriture (sous le paramètre
d'adaptation).
De futurs efforts pourraient également étudier les mesures possibles pour atteindre
les objectifs fixés au niveau international ou national. Une analyse plus approfondie
sera nécessaire sur les capacités institutionnelles et la technologie, les
infrastructures, les options juridiques et politiques. Cela pourrait être complété par
le renforcement des capacités et des ateliers de formation afin de stimuler la
priorisation et la mise en œuvre effective des mesures identifiées.
Des recherches devraient être menées par, ou en étroite collaboration avec les
experts nationaux/locaux, étant donné que plusieurs problèmes sont
particulièrement localisées dans la nature (qualité de l'air par exemple dans la zone
de Rabat-Casablanca, où la plupart des industries et des véhicules sont concentrés).
En outre, cela permettrait aux questions sociales et de développement d'être
davantage prises en compte (par exemple le rôle de ramasseurs informels dans la
gestion des déchets, les implications concernant l'utilisation des charges et autres
instruments de marché, le lien entre pauvreté et dégradation de l'environnement).
45
ANALYSIS FOR ENPI COUNTRIES ON SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF ENHANCED
ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION
Country report: MOROCCO
1
INTRODUCTION
1.1
This report
The European Union, represented by the European Commission contracted a consortium led
by ARCADIS Belgium N.V. to undertake an assessment of the social and economic benefits of
enhanced environmental protection for the 16 European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP)
countries and the Russian Federation. The other consortium partners are: Institute for
European Environmental Policy (IEEP), Ecologic Institute, Environmental Resources
Management Ltd. and Metroeconomica Ltd.
The overall aim of the project is to move environmental issues higher up on the political
agenda. Its specific objectives are to improve awareness of the benefits of enhanced
environmental protection within the countries under study and of their capacity to assess
these benefits. In this way, the project is meant to encourage each country to integrate
environmental considerations into policy making and to mobilise the necessary financial
resources for environmental improvements.
This report provides an assessment of the environmental, social, health and economic
benefits of environmental improvements in Morocco.
This report has been prepared on the basis of information gathered during a country
mission which was undertaken by the project’s experts in the period 27 September - 05
October 2010, and during follow-up meetings with country officials, complemented with a
desk review of national and international databases and reports.
1.2
What are environmental benefit assessments?
An environmental benefit assessment examines the potential positive outcomes for society
that result from the adoption of environmental protection targets and the implementation
of environmental actions to meet these targets. Such actions may include environmental
policies, legislation and investments undertaken by government, industry or other
stakeholders who lead to environmental improvements (e.g. improved water quality from
the construction of water treatment plans).
The environmental benefit assessment undertaken for Morocco, involved the following:
 a description of the current status of the environment and how this is expected to
change given current projected trends in socio-economic factors (e.g. mainly GDP
and population changes);
 an assessment of the potential direction and magnitude of environmental change if
specific environmental targets would be achieved;
46
 the identification, and where practical, quantification and monetisation of the
benefits arising from such an environmental change.
The methodology applied for the country benefit assessments was developed under the
project, building on previous analyses and methodologies, in particular on IEEP’s ENP
methodology (ten Brink and Bassi, 2008) and the World Bank’s Cost of Environmental
Degradation reports.
The methodology is described in a Benefit Assessment Manual for internal use by the
project experts that contributed to the country benefit assessments. On the basis of this
Manual, a Benefit Assessment Manual has been developed for a wide audience of policy
makers in the ENPI countries.4 This Benefit Assessment Manual provides an in-depth
understanding of the methodologies applied under the project and can be downloaded
from the project’s website www.environment-benefits.eu. Estimates and calculations by the
authors in this report, are made on the basis of the methodologies described in this Manual.
1.3
Aims of the country benefit assessments
This benefit assessment report intends to help the country to evaluate the benefits of
addressing environmental challenges it is facing and, where possible and appropriate,
estimate their economic value – hence making benefits comparable and understandable to
a wide audience. The assessment provides “order of magnitude” results, in order to
communicate the scale and significance of the potential benefits of taking action.
This benefit assessment report aims to assist policymakers by providing new evidence and
values on:
 key environmental issues affecting their country, i.e., the issues that could result in
the greatest benefits if tackled appropriately;
 impacts of these issues on society – i.e., in terms of social (e.g., health), economic
(e.g., additional social costs) and environmental (e.g., biodiversity loss) impacts; and
 benefits (health, environmental, economic and social) that accrue to society from
taking actions to protect the environment.
This benefits assessment report can also play an important role in raising awareness
regarding environmental problems, impacts and the benefits of action. The latter is crucial,
as policy makers have often a clearer perception of what it costs to maintain the quality of
the environment, than of the resulting benefits.
As such this report can stimulate policy attention, focus, action and appropriate funding.
4Bassi et al, 2011): Bassi, S. (IEEP), P. ten Brink (IEEP), A. Farmer (IEEP), G. Tucker (IEEP), S. Gardner (IEEP), L.
Mazza (IEEP), W. Van Breusegem (Arcadis), A. Hunt (Metroeconomica), M. Lago (Ecologic), J. Spurgeon (ERM),
M. Van Acoleyen (Arcadis), B. Larsen and, F. Doumani. 2011. Benefit Assessment Manual for Policy Makers:
Assessment of Social and Economic Benefits of Enhanced Environmental Protection in the ENPI countries. A
guiding document for the project ‘Analysis for European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) Countries and the
Russian Federation on social and economic benefits of enhanced environmental protection’, Brussels.
47
1.4
Potential users of and target audience for this benefit assessment report
The potential users of and the target audience for this benefit assessment report include:
 Governmental institutions, responsible for a sector that will directly benefit from
environmental improvements, such as the ministries responsible for environment,
water, energy, land use, agriculture, fisheries, health, social affairs and tourism. This
report provides evidence of the benefits of environmental improvements that can
support their arguments for funding environmental actions and for environmental
policy integration5.
 Regional and local authorities, for similar reasons as the above mentioned
governmental institutions.
 Finance ministries, which often play an important role in deciding the funding levels
for each other ministry, are also a potential user of benefit assessments. This is
important, as it is the perceived benefits that drive policy decisions to allocate public
resources to maintain and to improve the quality of the environment.
 Parliament: this report can help legislators responsible for environmental matters to
make the case for better environmental protection and conservation legislation.
 The Judiciary (ministries of Justice) and environmental inspectorates/enforcement
agencies. This report provides evidence that supports their arguments for enforcing
environmental legislation.
 Communities: this report can help communities that depend for their livelihood on
natural resources (e.g., forestry, fisheries) to demonstrate the value of the resources
and the importance of preserving them, community management of community
resources.
 The private sector, civil society and the development partner community, which
jointly work on the common challenge of the transition to a resource efficient,
effective, green and equitable economy. This report can help them to set priorities
for action and provides evidence when advocating for enhanced environmental
protection.
1.5
The benefits of an improved environment
The country benefit assessment focuses on four categories of benefits from environmental
improvements:
 Health benefits: these can also be interpreted as social benefits, but given the
strategic importance to health of the enhanced environmental protection, they are
assessed as a separate category. Direct benefits to public health include for example:
o a reduction in the cases of illness and the avoidance of premature mortality
arising from water-borne diseases,
5
Environmental integration means making sure that environmental concerns are fully considered in the
decisions and activities of other sectors, such as agriculture, tourism, industrial development, energy or
transport.
48
o a reduction in respiratory and cardio-pulmonary diseases and premature
mortality associated with poor air quality.
 Economic benefits: benefits include for example:
o economic benefits from natural resources (e.g. tourism benefits relating to
protected areas, landscape, beaches, coral reefs),
o eco-efficiency gains (e.g. improved fish provision from enhanced ecosystems
that support fisheries directly and indirectly),
o avoided costs (e.g. avoided costs of hospitalisation and lost days at work from
health impacts; avoided climate change impacts),
o the development of new and existing industries/sectors of the economy (e.g.
renewable energy),
o balance of payments and trade effects (e.g. reduced imports of primary
material as more waste is reused and recycled),
o increased employment through environmental investments (e.g., potential
from developing the waste collection sector, from growth in eco-tourism).
 Environmental benefits: are the positive impacts on the natural environment of
meeting environmental targets. For example, if the target of secondary treatment of
all urban waste water would be reached, this would result in environmental benefits,
such as improved surface water quality and avoidance of eutrophication, that can
lead to biodiversity loss.
 Social benefits: benefits to individuals and society at large, including for example:
o the safeguarding of, and access to, the natural and cultural heritage (avoided
pollution damage to historic buildings or the destruction of historic
landscapes),
o recreational opportunities (e.g., fishing and bathing),
o benefits of trust in quality environmental service provision (e.g., water
quality),
o social cohesion due to support for employment, social learning and the
development of civil society (due to increased information provision,
consultation and involvement).
1.6
Scope of the country benefit assessment
The improvement of environmental conditions encompasses a vast range of environmental
areas and policies. Clearly not everything can be covered by the project, and a selection of
the key environmental issues on which the analysis should focus on was made.
The aim was to identify issues of importance which are sufficiently representative of the five
environmental themes covered by the project, i.e. Air, Water, Waste, Nature and Climate
Change (as a horizontal area), which are common across the countries under study and
which are sufficiently simple to be assessed rigorously.
49
To this end, the five themes have been sub-divided into sub-themes and, for each subtheme, smaller categories called parameters have been identified. The benefit assessments
are about assessing the benefits of improvements for each of these parameters.
An overview of the themes, subthemes and parameters is provided in Table 1-1.
Table 1-1 Overview of themes, sub-themes and parameters
THEME
AIR
SUB-THEME
Air quality
PARAMETER
Ambient air quality
Connection to safe drinking water
WATER
Water - infrastructure and
practice
Connection to sewage network and hygiene conditions
Level of waste water treatment
Surface water quality
Water - natural resources
Water resource scarcity
Waste collection
Waste collection coverage
WASTE
Waste treatment
Waste treatment
Methane emissions from waste
Biodiversity
NATURE
Sustainable
use
natural resources
Level of biodiversity
of Deforestation levels
Climate change drivers
Level of cropland degradation
Deforestation (covered under nature)
Methane emission from waste (covered under waste)
CLIMATE
CHANGE
Climate change responses
Uptake of renewable energy sources
Climate change adaptation (responses to a selection of 2-3
impacts)
1.7
The level of analysis
The benefit assessments provide “order of magnitude” results, in order to communicate
the scale and significance of the potential benefits.
The benefits arising from improved environmental conditions can in principle be analysed in
three ways: qualitatively, quantitatively and monetarily.

In qualitative terms, providing a description of the nature of the benefit, the people,
land areas, sectors and services affected. This the easiest approach and is applicable
to all the parameters analysed.
50

In quantitative terms, whenever quantitative data are available (e.g., cases of
morbidity/mortality avoided, etc.), to indicate the actual, relative or proportionate
scale of the benefit arising from the environmental improvement identified. For
example, the improvement of ambient air quality can lead to a quantifiable
reduction in the likely number of cases of respiratory disease and associated
morbidity or early mortality. This approach is applicable to several but not all the
parameters, depending on the data available and the possibility to link
environmental improvements to actual physical effects.

In monetary terms, when possible. This third approach multiplies the quantitative
benefit identified by a standard economic value (or ranges) representing the
monetary value for society of a certain environmental improvement.
Such value can for instance be:
o
the amount of money saved if a certain improvement is made (e.g., avoided
hospitalisation costs from avoided illness; reduced cost for water purification
if the quality of water improves),
o
market values of products or savings (e.g., increased fish output, carbon
storage)
o
or a measure of people’s willingness to pay (WTP) for a benefit (e.g., access
to improved bathing water quality).
Such economic values may be obtained from:
o cost data for specific services (e.g., hospital treatments for particular
diseases),
o market values for particular commodities (e.g. fish, carbon),
o survey data documenting actual willingness to pay responses,
o modelling studies,
o applying a benefit transfer study (i.e. drawing upon valuation study results
calculated elsewhere, that value similar changes).
Most benefits are identifiable in qualitative terms, but due to data availability, only a subset
of them in quantitative terms and a smaller set in monetary terms.
The adoption of this three-level approach is important as the availability of suitable data
varies between each parameter to be measured and between countries. The purpose of this
three-stage approach is to ensure that the full range of benefits arising from enhanced
environmental protection is realised and that the benefit assessment is not constrained by
focusing only on the elements that can be quantified or monetised.
In general, the aim is to have a national picture for each parameter, but in some cases, local
case examples can be valuable to help communicate particular benefits. To this extent, a
case study has been included in this report for the parameter cropland degradation.
1.8 Assumptions
A number of assumptions have been made to carry out the country benefit assessment.
Parameter specific assumptions are included in the relevant sections of this report.
51
General assumptions, across parameters, are summarised in Table 1-2. It should be noted
that a practical approach with limited sensitivities has been chosen for this study in order to
keep the analysis relatively simple.
Table 1-2 Summary of key assumptions for ENP benefits studies
Issue
Assumptions
Timescale
2020
Reference year
2008 if and where data available, and note year if other than 2008.
Targets
Usually a single common target for year 2020, used across the 16 countries
covered by the project, for each parameter under analysis.
Baseline
Usually a set of essential factors are included in the baseline projection,
such as GDP, population and their growth rates. These are kept to a
minimum to keep the analysis reasonably simple.
Adjustment of monetary
values for Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP)
Monetary values Euros are adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),
except for the carbon prices used as regards climate change mitigation,
which are in €. Monetary values calculated for e.g. health benefits
associated with avoided impacts of air pollution, or other benefits, are thus
in € PPP. PPPs are widely used as an alternative to monetary exchange
rates when making international economic comparisons. They are, in
effect, “real” exchange rates, based on a comparison of the relative
purchasing power of each country’s currency. Purchasing power parities
equate the purchasing power of different currencies. This means that a
given sum of money, when converted into different currencies at the PPP
rates, will buy the same basket of goods and services in all countries, thus
eliminating differences in retail price levels between countries.
Improvements in e.g. ambient air quality, drinking water, sanitation and
hygiene are associated with reductions in the risk of mortality. The
benefits to society of mortality risk reductions are usually valuated by
people’s willingness-to-pay (WTP) for such risk reductions. WTP is then
converted to a value of statistical life (VSL) that is applied to estimated
cases of mortality avoided from the environmental improvements to arrive
an estimate of the monetary benefits of the improvements. The VSL varies
6
across countries in proportion to GDP/capita (PPP terms) . It should be
emphasized that these VSLs have nothing to do with value of life, but
rather reflects how people are willing to reallocate their resources from
consumption of market goods and services to paying for reductions in the
risk of mortality.
The same WTP and benefit transfer approach is used for valuing an avoided
case of illness, unless otherwise stated.
Assumes a proportional relationship – e.g., if GDP/capita goes up by a
factor of 2, the WTP goes up by a factor of two.
Mortality and morbidity
Time development of
willingness to Pay (WTP)
Exchange rate used7
DH/€ (PPP adjusted), 2008: 7.36
DH/€ (Market rate), 2008: 11.3
6
An empirically estimated function from a recent meta-analysis of studies of VSL in over 30 countries (of which
nearly half are countries with a GDP per capita in the range of that of the ENPI countries) by Navrud and
Lindhjem (2010) prepared for the OECD are used to estimate VSL in ENPI countries
(www.oecd.org/env/policies/VSL).
7 Source: World Bank. 2011. World Development Indicators.
52
The annual growth rate values used to estimate the projected 2020 values are given in Table
1-3. These are default values based on OECD estimates. For simplicity the same factors have
been used for macro regions (ENPI South, ENPI East and Russia) under the broad
assumption that these will face similar socio-economic developments. For the waste
parameters, different values have been used and referenced in the appropriate sections.
Table 1-3 Annual growth rates
Country cluster
ENP South
ENP East
Russia
Data
Annual growth factor
population
1.68%
GDP
3.75%
GDP/capita
2.03%
population
0.02%
GDP
3.35%
GDP/capita
3.33%
population
-0.55%
GDP
3.75%
GDP/capita
4.32%
Where: ENP South = Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, West Bank and
Gaza
ENP East = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Moldova, Georgia
Russia = Russian Federation
Source: unless otherwise indicated in this report, GDP projections are based on the GDP projections used in the
global modeling runs (using the Globio-Image model) for the OECD 2008 Global Outlook to 2030 report 8.
Full reference to the specific values used for issues such as GDP, population, growth rates
and Values of Statistical Life for each country, as well as Willingness to Pay values and
carbon values common across all countries have not been included in this report, but can be
found in the Benefit Assessment Manual that has been developed for the project.
8
OECD (2008) Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: Outlook to 2030.Paris.
53
2
COUNTRY OVERVIEW
2.1
Environment, economy and society
2.1.1 Physical context
Morocco is situated at the northwest of the African continent. Morocco has a long coastline,
bordering the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, which significantly influences its
climate. It borders Algeria to the east, Mauritania to the south, the Mediterranean Sea and
Spain to the north and the Atlantic Ocean to its west (Figure 1 Map of Morocco).
Figure 1 Map of Morocco
ALGERIA
MAURITANIA
MALI
The country has a very diverse topography. The Atlas mountain range rises more than 4,000
m, and the Sahara Desert stretches to the south of the country.
55
The country has a differentiated Mediterranean climate, with oceanic influences prevailing
in the northwest, while in the south and southeast of the High Atlas and Anti Atlas Mountain
ranges, the continental, Saharan influences dominate.
In the northern heights of the country, average rainfall is more than 2 m per year, yet the
dry Saharan zone receives less than 25mm of rain. Temperatures in the coastal regions
range between 22‐25°C in the summer and 10‐12°C in the winter. Temperatures throughout
the year are considerably lower than this range at the higher altitudes of the Atlas
Mountains. The wet season lasts between November and March, affecting only the north of
Morocco, with an average of 50 to 100mm per month. The interior border of Morocco
experiences string seasonal temperature variations, with average temperatures of 25 to
30°C in the summer (JAS) dropping considerably in winter to less than 15°C in the winter.
This region is very dry throughout the year.
The differentiated climate results in a huge bioclimatic diversity. Given these geophysical
conditions, almost all biological life is concentrated in the Northern part and in the oases
along the rivers (Oueds in Arabic) and water ponds in the southern part of the country.
Over 90% of the country is classified as arid or semi-arid, and the population is concentrated
primarily in the sub-humid and humid zones in the northwest.
2.1.2 Economy
Morocco is a developing country with a light industrial base and an economy dependent on
its agricultural sector. Industrial activity is mainly located in the Atlantic coastal zone, with
Casablanca being the country’s main industrial centre. In the Mediterranean region, Tangier
and Tetouan are the major industrial centres. The country's third largest source of revenue
is tourism.
Morocco has one of Africa's leading mining industries, dominated by phosphates.
Minerals such as coal, iron ore, lead, manganese, and zinc also are mined, and major mining
areas are found along the Atlantic coast and in sections of the Atlas Mountains. The oil
industry has become an important economic sector. Oil recently was discovered in the
Talsint region. Oil refineries are located in Sidi Kacem and Mohammedia near Casablanca.
The main agricultural products include barley, citrus fruits, vegetables, olives, wine,
livestock, and fishing.
The Moroccan economy has been characterized by macroeconomic stability, with generally
low inflation and sustained, moderately high growth rates over the past several years.
Morocco's primary economic challenge is to accelerate growth and sustain that improved
performance in order to reduce high levels of unemployment and underemployment. While
overall unemployment is high and stands at 8.6% (2010 estimate), the figure masks
significantly higher urban unemployment, as high as 31% among young urban males.
56
Since early in his reign, King Mohammed VI has called for expanded employment
opportunities, economic development, meaningful education, and increased housing
availability. The government has pursued an ambitious program of reforms to increase
productivity and competitiveness of the national economy through sectoral strategies
targeting energy, fisheries, industry, commerce, agriculture, tourism, and logistics.
Privatizations have reduced the size of the public sector. Morocco has liberalized rules for oil
and gas exploration and has granted concessions for public services in major cities. The
tender process in Morocco is becoming increasingly transparent. The government has
invested considerably in infrastructure development, in particular Tangier-Med Port at the
Strait of Gibraltar. When completed in 2014, Tangier-Med will be Africa’s largest port. Many
believe, however, that the process of economic reform must be accelerated.
While economic growth has historically been hampered by volatility in the rainfalldependent agriculture sector, diversification has made the economy more resilient. Despite
an unfavourable international economic environment, Morocco’s economy grew by 4.9% in
2009, aided by an exceptional agricultural harvest. GDP was expected to grow at a 4% rate
in 2010 and is projected to expand by 5% in 2011.
Due to industrialisation and urbanisation, energy demand has risen in recent years by an
average of 8%. Power generation is primarily fuelled by fossil energy sources such as coal,
natural gas and heavy fuel oils, which are all imported. This represents an enormous
economic challenge. Morocco announced an energy security plan in 2008. The plan aims to
reduce dependence on foreign energy sources by increasing efficiency and by harnessing its
huge potential for renewable solar and wind energy.
The persistent merchandise trade deficit driven by the country’s need for imported energy
has been largely offset by inflows including transfers from Moroccans resident abroad,
tourism revenue, and foreign investment. (U.S. Department of State, 2011).
2.1.3 Society
People
Morocco is the fourth most populous Arab country. Most of the population lives in urban
areas, in the fertile plains or near the Mediterranean coast, where recent urbanisation was
translated by the emergence of several urban centers. This often uncontrolled urbanisation
of the littoral zone causes the emergence of new planning problems and new forms of
environmental pressures.
Casablanca is the centre of commerce and industry and the leading port; Rabat is the seat of
government; Tangier is the gateway to Spain and also a major port; Fes is the cultural and
religious centre; and Marrakech is a major tourist centre.
Education in Morocco is free and compulsory through primary school (age 15).
Nevertheless, many children --particularly girls in rural areas--do not attend school, and
most of those who do drop out after elementary school. The country's literacy rate reveals
57
sharp gaps in education, both in terms of gender and location; while country-wide literacy
rates are estimated at 39.6% among women and 65.7% among men, the female literacy rate
in rural areas is estimated only at 10%.
Morocco is home to 14 public universities. Mohammed V University in Rabat is one of the
country’s most famous schools, with faculties of law, sciences, liberal arts, and medicine.
Despite the progress, Morocco still confronts formidable challenges, including the fact that
large segments of the population remain socially and economically marginalized and
economic vulnerability remains widespread. Health indicators – especially for women and
children – were well below the norm with high incidence of maternal mortality (227 for
100,000 live births in 2003). However, this rate has been reduced by 50% in seven years
(112 in 20109 : 148 in rural areas and 7 in urban areas). Other indicators include child
malnutrition (one in six children10) and micronutrient deficiencies among adults (one in ten
women of childbearing age show folic acid deficiency; one in six men show anaemia due to
iron deficiency).
Government
Morocco is divided into 16 administrative regions (further broken into provinces and
prefectures); the regions are administered by walis (governors). The old Moroccan
constitution provides for a strong monarchy but a weak Parliament and judicial branch. The
new one adopted by popular referendum on 30 June 2011 has transferred most of the
executive power to the head of government (prime minister)
Under Mohammed VI, the Moroccan Government has undertaken a number of economic,
social, and political reforms. In 2005, the King launched the National Initiative for Human
Development (INDH), a project to address poverty in rural areas and combat social exclusion
in urban areas. The government initiated a number of other important reforms, upgrading
the national education system, overhauling the health care regime, broadening the scope of
medical insurance, and facilitating access to housing to achieve its human development
goals.
9
National demographic survey by the « le Haut Commissariat au Plan” (HCP) in 2009 - 2010 amongst a
sample of 105,000 households.
10 Stratégie Nationale de la Nutrition 2011-2019
58
2.1.4 Summary
Key economic indicators for Morocco are listed in Table 2-1.
Table 2-1 Key demographic and economic indicators for Morocco
Indicator
2008 (unless otherwise specified)
Country surface area
712 600 sq.km (including the Western Sahara, of which
the surface area amounts to 266,000)
Current: 32 381 283
Rural population: 44 %
Urban population: 56 %
Projections (2020): 36 161 000
Current: 1.21%
Rural population growth: 0.44 %
Urban population growth: 1.82 %
Current: 6 078 003
2
Projections (2020): 6 954 038
5,2 (source: MOH, 2008)
Current (2008): €1 891
3
Projections (2020): €2 407
Current (2008): €2 917
3
Projections (2020): €3 712
14.6
30.3
55.0
Population size
Annual population growth rate
Number of households
Average household size
GDP/capita (2008 prices)
GDP/capita in Purchasing Power Parity
(2008 Euros, PPP)
Share (%) of agriculture in GDP
Share (%) of industry in GDP
Share (%) of services in GDP
Sources: All data are from World Bank (2010) (converted from US$ to € where applicable) except for:
2 Own calculation assuming an average households size of 5.2 (MOH.2008)
3 Projections are based on GDP/capita growth rates used in the global modeling runs (using the Globio-Image
model) for the OECD 2008 Global Outlook to 2030 report11.
2.1.5 State of the environment
Important environmental issues include among other drought and desertification, water
scarcity and water pollution.
High population growth and socio-economic development have put pressure on natural
resources and caused environmental degradation. However, awareness of environmental
issues remains low among industry and the general public.
Strategic planning and the implementation and enforcement of environmental legislation
represent a crucial challenge to Morocco, as a result of its inadequate administrative
infrastructure and underfunding. Investments should be promoted in technologies relevant
to the environment and the climate. The level of environmental awareness and the level
involvement of the civil society in decision-making processes should be increased.
11
OECD (2008) Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: Outlook to 2030.Paris.
59
The national authorities drew up in July 2003 an overall national strategy for the
environment, which was followed by a National Environmental Action Plan (PANE) to put
the national strategy into effect. Morocco also adopted a number of sectoral plans and
programs focusing, for example, on desertification and integrated water management and
monitoring of groundwater and surface water. National strategies are being prepared in the
areas of waste management, industrial pollution and nature conservation.
The National Charter for Environment and Sustainable Development has been presented on
February, 2011, during the sixth environment national board, held in Rabat. This charter is
expected to stimulate sound environmental management. The Charter forms the framework
for national environmental laws as well as for future environmental policy.
Morocco acknowledges that its future development depends on reducing environmental
damage and sustainable use of existing natural resources.
The major environmental issues include (ENPI, 2007-2013):





Air quality: atmospheric pollution is causing increasing concern in urban and
industrial areas, in particular in Rabat and Casablanca.
Water quantity: Morocco's water resources are gradually running out as a result of
population growth, pollution, inefficient irrigation (agriculture accounts for a major
part of total water consumption), irregular rainfall and sedimentation of reservoirs.
Water quality: Water quality is one of the country's most pressing environmental
health issues The main causes of water pollution are run-off from solid waste landfill
sites, the discharge of untreated urban waste-water into rivers and the sea (which is
polluting the coastline and threatening the groundwater supply), industrial effluent
and agricultural activities.
Waste management: prevention, collection, treatment, recovery and final disposal
are a major challenge. Municipal solid wastes are partly collected in most urban
centres, but are subsequently often disposed of in uncontrolled dumps without
sanitary measures, or even soil coverage. This practice is resulting in serious
environmental and potential health problems (rodents’ proliferation, bad smells,
wild fires because of self-ignition, contamination of groundwater tables by
leachates). This is particularly the case in the growing urban-industrial centres.
Municipalities cannot keep up with the environmental protection and waste disposal
tasks entrusted to them. The level of private sector participation in collection and
disposal in larger towns is relatively high. The recycling rates are low.
Nature conservation: Morocco's coastal, oasis, mountain and forest ecosystems are
under considerable pressure. The disappearance of biodiversity is, amongst other,
related to pollution and soil degradation.
o Coastal and marine environment degradation: Coastal and marine ecosystems
are deteriorating due to pollution, unplanned construction and poorly regulated
tourist activities. Polluted beaches affect public health, marine ecosystems and
fish populations. Maritime transport causes shoreline erosion
o Erosion affects more than 70% of arable land. Land degradation is also caused by
over-grazing, deforestation and poor farming practices. The silting-up of dams as
a result of soil erosion is also a major problem.
60
The cross-border environmental issues affecting Morocco include the pollution of
Mediterranean and Atlantic coastal waters. The Euro-Mediterranean partners, including
Morocco, have joined strengths in the "Horizon 2020 Initiative". The aim is de-pollute the
Mediterranean by the year 2020 by tackling the sources of pollution that account for around
80% of the overall pollution of the Mediterranean Sea: municipal waste, urban waste water
and industrial pollution.
Regarding global environmental issues, in particular climate change, Morocco acceded to
the Kyoto Protocol in 2002 and must therefore implement the appropriate legislation and,
where necessary, also bring in policies and practical measures for reducing emissions of
greenhouse gases, especially in the energy sector and heavy industry.
61
3
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING AIR RELATED CONDITIONS
The emissions data used to construct the baseline and policy scenarios for 2020 were taken
from the EDGAR Database held by the EC Joint Research Centre12. This data was used in all
the 16 ENPI country-level analysis of air quality benefits under this project. The data is
constructed using a modelled approach to national emissions and therefore does not rely on
observed data. The use of this data therefore allows comparison between countries since a
common approach has been used to estimate the emissions. Similarly, use of this data allows
analysis of important components of air pollution where national air monitoring and
statistical systems do not allow observations to be made. Clearly, wherever required, further
analysis can exploit records of observed emissions where these are judged to be more
accurate.
3.1
Introduction to air quality issues
Air pollutants may be released by either stationary sources (point source emissions), such as
those emitted from the stack of a coal-fired power plant, or by moving sources (line source
emissions), which include, for example, automobiles, buses, trucks, rail and ship transport.
Common pollutants include particulate matter,13 nitrogen oxides (NOx, including NO and
NO2 species), sulphur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone
(O3), lead (Pb), mercury (Hg), nitrate and sulphate aerosols,14 and carcinogenic substances,
which include several heavy metals (nickel, cobalt, chromium, arsenic), benzene, dioxins and
furans, polycyclic-aromatic-hydrocarbons (PAH), just to name a few.
In the present context, a physical impact is defined as a physiological response or reaction
to an environmental stimulus, which is triggered by a pollutant emitted into the surrounding
atmosphere. For this report, anthropogenic emissions are considered. The report thus
focuses only on those pollutants emitted to the ambient air due to human related activities
(artificial emissions). Once in the environment, pollutants are transported away from the
source via different dispersion routes, including air, water, soil and uptake by living
organisms (plants and animals). For the case of airborne dispersion, pollutant uptake in
humans may occur via three separate pathways: inhalation, ingestion and skin absorption.
Emissions to water and soil environments and exchanges between these media and air will
not be considered here. We will thus only consider air pollutants that directly impact on a
receptor population.
12 European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL).
Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.1.
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu, 2010"; Megapoli, contributed by TNO, 2010
13 Typically, reported as total suspended particles (TSP) or suspended particulate matter (SPM). A particle or
an aerosol particle consists of several chemical entities which are held together by inter-molecular forces and,
in effect, act as a single solid or liquid unit under normal atmospheric conditions. A complete description of
particulate matter requires specification of the chemical composition of its constituents and morphology (size
and shape). Particles are usually identified as PMx, where x stands for the largest aerodynamic diameter
(actual or equivalent) of the collective group of particles, measured in microns (a millionth of a meter).
14 Nitrate and sulfate aerosols are secondary particulates formed in the atmosphere following chemical
transformations in which NOx and SO2 species react with other substances already present in the air, such as,
for example, ammonia.
63
The presence of air pollutants in the air can result in pulmonary and cardiovascular illness
and early mortality. They can damage vegetation and buildings, including the cultural
heritage. Over longer distances such pollutants may be deposited as acid rain leading to
acidification and/or eutrophication of ecosystems such as forests and fresh waters and
affect economically important resources such as fisheries.
This section will cover the following aspect of air quality: ambient air quality.
3.2
Benefits from improved ambient air quality
3.2.1 Current state of ambient air quality
General
Air pollution has been increasing the past 20 years as a result of industrial development and
high levels of urbanization. Air quality is now a major concern in urban centres, such as
Casablanca, Rabat, El Jadida and Safi.
Pollutants
The principal atmospheric pollutants are sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and particulate
matter. These pollutants are derived mainly from industrial and vehicle emissions and the
burning of hydrocarbon fuels.
The emissions of GHG and the use of ODS contributes little to the pressures on the
environment (UNEP, 2006). However, Morocco is experiencing significant growth in CO2
emissions, which is often correlated with economic growth.
Emissions of greenhouse gases are estimated at15:



54.6 million ton-equivalent CO2 in 1999 ;
63.4 million ton-equivalent CO2 in 2000, representing 2.1 ton-equivalent CO2 per
inhabitant and per year ;
75 million ton-equivalent CO2 in 2004, representing 2.5 ton-equivalent CO2 per
inhabitant and per year.
Sources
There are two main sources of air pollution:


15
Natural, in particular dust and sandstorms;
Anthropogenic activities including stationary sources, such as thermal power
generating plants and industrial facilities, and mobile sources including vehicles.
National Plan Against Global Warming, Kingdom of Morocco, November 2009
64
Stationary sources:
Primary industrial sources of air contamination include in particular petroleum refineries
and power generation plants, but also phosphate-processing units, cement factories, iron,
steel mills, and petrochemical factories. These facilities consume fossil fuels, i.e. coal and
fuel with high sulphur content). Industrial air pollution is focused in industrial centres,
particularly the Casablanca region, where 43% of the country's industries are located.
Mobile sources:
Vehicle emissions reportedly contribute up to 60% of Morocco's air pollution, particularly in
urban areas. Over 50 % of the vehicles are concentrated in the zone of Rabat-Casablanca.
Emissions are significant because of the increasing number of aging vehicles, lack of
emission controls, a general lack of engine maintenance, and the use of low-quality fuel
with high sulphur and lead content. The use of trucks for long-distance transportation of
goods and the poor railway system, exacerbate pollution problems.
Impacts of air pollution
Short-term exposure to nitrogen oxides, particulate matter, and sulphur dioxide above
established standards presents a risk of transient acute respiratory symptoms such as
coughing, wheezing, and reduced lung function, especially in asthmatic individuals.
Epidemiologic studies conducted in areas such as Casablanca, Mohammedia and Safi have
shown correlations between air pollution and increased respiratory infections, bronchitis,
asthma, and premature mortality.
In Rabat, fine particulates (less than 3μm in diameter) have an annual average of 243μg/m³
(National Environment Observatory of Morocco 2001). PM10 levels ranges between 70 and
123μg/m³, CO2 concentrations reach 144μg/m³, SO2 concentrations vary between 8 and
144μg/m³ depending on the region inside the city. A correlation has been found between air
pollution and health needs in a number of cities. Mortality, for example, has increased by
2% due to the increase of PM10 concentrations by 22μg/m³. (AFED 2008)
There has recently been increasing awareness of the diverse and complex impacts of air
pollution. Public and private sector establishments are becoming more interested in
undertaking preventive measures to control air pollution, and there is a detectable shift
from end-of-pipe treatments to a more proactive approach, including cleaner production.
National Cleaner Production Centres have been established, to raise awareness, build the
capacities of development partners, and support stakeholders (UNEP, 2006).
3.2.2 Potential environmental improvements
The 2020 baseline level of emissions for each pollutant is simulated on the basis of the
assumption that emissions increase on a linear proportionate basis to the average annual
GDP growth rate as adopted across the ENPI project, such that a 1% increase in GDP leads to
a 1% increase in pollutant emission levels. The average annual GDP growth rate for the
Morocco is 3.75%.
There exist no published targets for air quality in Morocco that simulate WHO limit values or
that attempt to replicate the values implied by conformity to EU Air Quality (AQ) Directives,
relative to a 2020 baseline. Consequently, to establish targets, we adopt reductions from
65
the 2020 baseline that have typically been required in countries adopting the EU AQ
Framework Directive. In the case of air quality, a 50% reduction is assumed to be typical and
is utilised. The target is therefore emissions at 50% of their 2020 baseline. The baseline and
target data are presented in Table 3-1.
Table 3-1 Air pollution emissions: Baselines and targets
Tonne
NH3
NMVOC
NOx
PPM2.5
PPMco
PPM10
SO2
Baseline 2008
117,228
187,231
171,695
191,708
117,454
309,162
548,442
Baseline 2020
50% Reduction
Target
182,342
291,230
267,063
298,193
182,694
480,887
853,076
91,171
145,615
133,532
149,096
91,347
240,444
426,538
Sources for baseline emissions: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC)/Netherlands Environmental
Assessment Agency (PBL). Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), release version 4.1.
http://edgar.jrc.ec.europe.eu, 2010"; Megapoli, contributed by TNO, 2010
As for emissions from the transport sector, a significant improvement has been made since
2009, due to the improvement of the quality of the fuel:


For the super fuel, lead has been totally eliminated from the additive.
For the gas oil, which represents 80 % of the consumption of car fuels, the sulphur
content has been lowered by a factor of 200, i.e. 50 ppm instead of 10 000 ppm.
Morocco has a national monitoring network for ambient air quality that currently consists of
21 stations, to monitor the main air pollutants.
The estimated health benefits of the emission reductions are expressed in physical and
monetary terms. The benefits from reduced crop damage and material soiling are included
in the overall estimates of monetary benefits resulting from the emission reductions.
3.2.3 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality
Environmental benefits
Ecosystems: Damage to forests, lakes and streams from acidification resulting from SO 2 and
NOx has a major impact on the health of ecosystems and biodiversity in general. In some
cases, existing acid deposition may have caused critical loads to be reached in ecosystems
and much damage will be irreparable. High concentrations of lead also adversely affected
domestic animals, wildlife and aquatic life. More indirectly, the effects of climate change,
contributed to by NOx and SO2, are as of yet not fully known, but potentially very damaging
to global ecosystems.
Crop damage: Sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides, in their gas form, also contribute to crop
damage through the degradation of chlorophyll. Reducing the release of these gases in the
66
atmosphere will bring tangible benefits to agriculture, agro-forestry and fisheries industries.
In addition, SO2 and NOx are known to corrode building structures at great economic cost.
Vegetation: Ozone has an impact on vegetation at concentrations not far above ambient
background levels. It can cause damage to natural ecosystems and to crops. The effects of
ground-level ozone on long-lived species such as trees are believed to add up over many
years so that whole forests or ecosystems can be affected in the long term. For example,
ozone can adversely impact ecological functions such as water movement, mineral nutrient
cycling, and habitats for various animal and plant species. Ground-level ozone can kill or
damage leaves so that they fall off the plants too soon or become spotted or brown.
These various impacts will be reduced as a consequence of air pollution emission
reductions, as summarised in Table 3-2.
Table 3-2 Environmental benefits of improved air quality
Ecosystem condition improvements



Description
Reduced acidification from lower SO2 and
NOx emissions
Reduced climate change impacts from lower
from lower SO2 and NOx emissions
Reduced damage to vegetation from low
level ozone
Health benefits
The health consequences of exposure to air pollution are considerable and span a wide
range of severity from respiratory track sensitisation and irritation, coughing and bronchitis
to heart disease and lung cancer.
Vulnerable groups include infants, the elderly, and those suffering from chronic respiratory
conditions including asthma, bronchitis, or emphysema.
Many of air pollution's health effects, such as bronchitis, tightness in the chest, and
wheezing, are acute, or short term. Other effects appear to be chronic, such as lung cancer
and cardiopulmonary diseases.
These health effects, which are summarised in Table 3-3 entail a significant economic cost
including the cost to the economy (restricted activity days) and the costs to national health
services. Both acute and chronic effects and can be reversed if air pollution exposures
decline as a result of emission reductions.
67
Table 3-3 Health benefits of improved air quality
Health benefits
Lower incidence of acute and chronic disease



Description
Reductions in SO2 imply lower incidence of
cardiovascular and respiratory disease
Reductions in PM10 concentrations imply
lower emergency-room visits due to asthma,
and also hospital admissions on the grounds
of respiratory diseases
Reductions in NOx, when combined with
ozone, organic compounds, particulates and
sunlight result in corresponding reductions
of photochemical ‘smog’ that otherwise
cause respiratory impairment, irritation of
the eyes and mucous membrane, with
asthma patients and young children.
Social benefits
The social benefits of reduced pollution to air are myriad and relate to improvements to the
quality of life (e.g. through reduced health effects), the increased amenity value of improved
landscapes, nature and air quality), and reduced damage to cultural heritage such as historic
building surfaces in city centres. These benefits are described in Table 3-4.
Table 3-4 Social benefits of improved air quality
Social benefits
Improved quality of life



Increased amenity value of improved
landscapes, nature and air quality
Reduced damage to cultural heritage, including
among other things, historic building surfaces in
city centres.
Description
Reduced health effects
increased visibility in urban areas, as a result
of reduced photochemical smog
Transport emissions are a major contributor
to poor urban air quality and compliance
with them is one component of any
comprehensive social improvement policy.
through reduced pollution pressure
68

Black smoke from traffic is a prime cause of
discolouring of buildings, including public
buildings of important social cultural value,
such as monuments, historic buildings,
churches, museums.

Exposure of building materials to acid
deposition from SO2 emissions results
in premature ageing.

Reduced blackening and erosion of surfaces
(from SOx and NOx emissions from traffic
fuel use), can improve the social
appreciation and use of city centres and
cultural heritage.
Informing and involving the public in environmental and health matters not only helps to
build trust within communities and between communities and government (and potentially
industry) and can improve social cohesion. More routine information requirements not only
specify information provision to the public in general, but also to a range of listed interested
groups. In many countries information supply to the public is poor, especially for socially
excluded groups.
Economic benefits
A wide range of environmental technologies and new ‘cleaner’ primary inputs, are required
to bring about cleaner production processes that will be needed to meet the standards in
these directives. These industries will benefit economically from increased sales as will
society from increased employment in these sectors. There will also be potential benefits
derived from improved tourism in areas that were previously damaged by acid rain.
The economic benefits of improved air quality are summarised in Table 3-5.
Table 3-5 Economic benefits of improved air quality
Economic benefits
“Green technology” industries

Increased visits to improved landscapes and
natural areas
Lower material cleaning costs

Crop damage reductions



Description
Increase in demand for products and
processes that result in lower air pollution
emissions, and subsequent employment
opportunities, as long as such industries are
domestic.
Increase in tourism and associated
expenditures in local areas.
Reductions in expenditures on building
surfaces soiled by particulates.
Reduced crop damage from lower SO2 and
NOx emissions
Reduced crop damage from low level ozone
3.2.4 Quantitative assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality
The physical and monetary estimates of the benefits of air quality improvements that are
presented in this section are derived from an integrated atmospheric dispersion and
exposure assessment model co-ordinated by the central project team. The model – an
integrated software tool called EcoSense - assesses impacts resulting from the exposure to
airborne pollutants, namely impacts on human health, crops, building materials and
ecosystems. In the current exercise, it includes the emissions of ‘classical’ pollutants SO 2,
NOx, primary particulates, (fine and coarse), NMVOC and NH3.
The model and overall method are documented more fully in the Benefit Assessment
Manual for Policymakers which has been prepared under the project.
The air quality model produces an output in terms of €/tonne of pollutant. Since we were
unable to apply the model directly in Morocco with the resources available, these unit
69
values (€/tonne of pollutant) for individual pollutants were transferred from Tunisia which
were judged to have broadly similar conditions (population density, geography etc). Clearly
this transfer introduces an additional uncertainty in the measurement of total benefits.
The unit value per tonne of pollutant was then multiplied by the emissions reductions
projected for each pollutant, as identified above, to generate estimates of total benefits per
pollutant. The benefits for all pollutants were then summed to generate estimates of total
air quality benefits for 2020, assuming a 50% reduction from projected baseline emissions.
The aggregate benefits were than apportioned to the different impact categories, according
to the outputs of the air quality model. Typical percentage splits were: mortality (70%);
morbidity (20%); crops (6%) and materials (4%).
As a sensitivity exercise, we also provide indicative estimates of potential trans-boundary
effects. These are derived again through a transfer procedure, that identifies transboundary effects for each pollutant as percentages of total damages from existing modelling
outputs in countries that are judged to have similar relevant characteristics e.g. with respect
to the wind directions and strengths, the size of the country, the existence of a large
number of neighbour countries or a long coastline, and the density of the potentially
affected population. The method is described more fully in the Benefit Assessment Manual
which has been developed under the project. As stated there, the method we are obliged to
adopt in estimating trans-boundary effects is somewhat crude. We therefore suggest that
the results reported should be considered as indicative, only, and serve principally to draw
attention to the fact that these trans-boundary effects exist and may be important in
assessments of regional air quality strategies.
Health benefits
The pollutants for which we are able to make quantitative estimates of benefits include:
Ammonia (NH3), Particulate matter (coarse and fine) (PM), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Sulphur
Dioxide (SO2) and Volatile Organic Compounds (NMVOCs).
The mortality and morbidity impacts of the pollution emission reductions assumed above
for Morocco are shown in Table 3-6 below for 2020 – the year in which it is assumed the
50% reduction from 2008 levels is achieved. The benefits of these reductions in surrounding
countries – due to reduction of trans-boundary transport of pollution from Morocco - are
also given. Morbidity impacts are of a disparate nature and so cannot be expressed as a
common unit. However, for illustration, the morbidity impacts are presented - in Table 3-6 as equivalent number of cases of chronic bronchitis avoided.
Table 3-6 Physical premature mortality and morbidity impacts avoided in year 2020
Deaths
Cases of chronic bronchitis
4 400
8 500
70
The benefits of these reductions in surrounding countries – due to reduction of transboundary transport of pollution from Morocco to neighbouring countries - are also derived.
They are estimated to result in 1750 deaths avoided.
Economic benefits
In the case of materials, the impact being quantified is the premature ageing of various
building materials exposed to SO2 deposition from acidification. Thus, in our context, the
whole exposed material surface area to SO2 will age at a slower rate than if the emission
reductions were not made. The economic benefits are therefore estimated by multiplying
the changes in aggregate damage to the surface areas by the cost of cleaning these surface
areas.
Crop damage is measured primarily by the change in yield that results from the change in
pollutant concentrations in the air. Thus, with knowledge of the geographical distribution of
crop plantations within a country, the acreage of a given crop affected by a change in
pollutant concentration can be estimated and the percentage yield change can be derived.
The modelling then multiplies this aggregate yield change by the market price of the crops.
In this case, we did not have sufficient data to make this estimate.
3.2.5 Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving ambient air quality
The monetary values of the benefits from reduced air pollution - as assumed above - are
presented in summary form in Table 3-7. Values presented are in million Euros (2008
prices), and relate to the year 2020, to which the assumed target of a 50% emission
reduction applies. Underlying unit values, unadjusted for PPP, are listed in the Benefit
Assessment Manual for Policymakers.
The benefits are valued at €281,000 or DH 2m per avoided fatality and €42,000 or DH
310,000 per avoided case of chronic bronchitis-equivalent. All figures are in 2008 purchasing
power parity (PPP) adjusted Euros and 2008 DH. Table 3-7 shows that the total domestic
benefits to Morocco are equal to €1,770 million each year, equivalent to 1.3% of annual
GDP. These domestic benefits are understood as benefits which accrue to Morocco as a
result of its own emission reductions.
Table 3-7 Annual Compliance Benefits – Morocco 2020
Mortality
Morbidity
Crop
Material
Total Domestic
€ PPP (m)
DH (m)
1,237
371
106
53
1,768
9,156
2,747
785
392
13,080
% of
GDP
0.9
0.3
0.1
0.0
1.3
In additional sensitivity analysis we made initial estimates of the possible extent of the total
trans-boundary benefits - the benefits outside Morocco – that may result from the air
pollution emission reductions in Morocco. We found that these benefits may be as much as
71
25% of the domestic benefits, though the specific geographical and social contexts may well
mean that the reality differs significantly from these modelled results. These results do,
however, serve principally to draw attention to the fact that these trans-boundary effects
exist and may be important in assessments of regional air quality strategies.
72
4
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING WATER RELATED CONDITIONS
4.1
This section
Morocco is located in an arid climate and water management is a key factor in the future of
the country. Scarce and unevenly distributed rainfall has made water a key economic and
social development issue.
The country faces challenges in managing and using its water resources more sustainably, as
well as in developing equitable and efficient water supply and sanitation services. The
country’s water management strategies must meet a number of challenges:







water quantity: scarce water resources are further depleted by the country’s growing
population, urbanisation, sedimentation of reservoirs, and inefficient irrigation practices
in agriculture. The water deficit is growing, because the water usage levels are not
compatible with the available natural resources;
water quality: contamination of water sources with raw sewage is the country’s primary
water pollution problem;
service access: the challenge is to improve potable water and sanitation service access
and efficiency while reducing the burden on the state and on poor consumers, also in
peri-urban16 settlements previously considered illegal, and therefore ineligible for
services;
slow changes in legislation,
limited infrastructure programs,
pressing demographic growth,
and climate change, which is exacerbating the challenges.17
The country has invested heavily in dams (90% of accessible resources are stored in 116
large dams), water supply capacity and large-scale irrigation systems (irrigation is developed
for over 1.4 million hectares), to secure water for urban and agricultural demands.
While largely successful, this strong supply focus was not accompanied by balancing policies
aimed at sustainability, such as water demand management, including also water efficiency,
water resource conservation and protection, and equitable potable water and sanitation
service development in rural and poor communities. Currently Morocco has poor water
demand management. For instance, Morocco uses 85% of its water for irrigation, yet only
14% is actually irrigated18.
Water pollution has also become an issue, as municipal waste water is often discharged
without appropriate treatment and as Moroccan coasts are being ravaged by waste and
16
Here, the word “peri-urban” includes all settlements located at the cities’ outskirts—whether structured in
city quarters or hamlets, legal or not—and encompasses hamlets in urban communes presenting
characteristics of rural areas.
17 World Bank website, Morocco, Results Profile
18 "Water in Morocco: International Development Research Centre." , 11 Feb. 2009
<http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-65879-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html>.
73
litter. Infrastructure for wastewater management is insufficient. The rates for connection to
the sewage network should be increased. Morocco must construct and maintain more
waste water treatment plants. There are approximately 63 waste treatment plants spread
out around the nation of Morocco, and many of them are reported to be not working or in
poor working condition (World Bank, 2009).
The main sources of drinking water (70%) are the dam lakes on the principal rivers (such as
Bourgreg, Oum Er-rbia and Moulouya) which present different levels of pollution due to the
discharge of untreated wastewater. The remaining needs are ensured by ground water.
Morocco however currently utilizes groundwater in a non-sustainable manner. Intensively
irrigated agriculture in particular has led to sometimes dramatic overuse of the groundwater
resources in many regions.
This section covers the following aspects of water quality:
-
Man-made infrastructures:
o Connection to safe drinking water
o Level of sanitation and hygiene, i.e. connection to the sewage network and
hygiene conditions
o Level of waste water treatment
-
Natural assets
o Surface water quality
o Water resource use
4.2
Benefits from improved drinking water, sanitation and hygiene
4.2.1 Introduction
This section assesses the benefits of improvements in three household water, sanitation
and hygiene parameters:
-
connection to a reliable and safe piped drinking water supply on premises;
connection to a sewage network; and
improved domestic and personal hygiene practices whenever such practices are
inadequate for health protection.
Benefits of improved wastewater treatment and improved surface water quality are
assessed in other sections.
The section specifies a set of targets for the three parameters to be achieved by 2020,
improvements resulting from reaching the targets are estimated at the national level,
benefits of these improvements are discussed qualitatively, and some of the benefits are
quantitatively assessed. The quantitative assessment of the three parameters is undertaken
jointly as many households will benefit from improvement in more than one parameter.
Definitions of key terms used in this section are:
74
 Reliable piped water supply: Continuous and plentiful water supply delivered at
appropriate and constant pressure to household premises (yard/dwelling) through a
piped water distribution network from a central water intake.
 Safe drinking water: Drinking water that does not contain biological, chemical or other
agents at concentrations or levels considered detrimental to health according to WHO
guidelines for drinking water quality.
 Plentiful water: The amount of water needed to satisfy metabolic, hygienic and domestic
requirements. This is usually defined as a minimum of 20 litres of water per person per
day (DESA, 2007).
 Improved water sources: Piped water to premises (dwelling/yard); public standpipes;
tube wells/boreholes; protected dug wells and springs; and use of rainwater.
 Unimproved water sources: Unprotected dug wells and springs; tanker trucks/vendors;
and open surface water sources (rivers, ponds, etc).
 Sanitation: Here defined as systems, facilities, and practices for disposal and removal of
human excreta (urine and feces). Sanitation systems include sewage networks, septic
tanks and pits, and wastewater treatment facilities. Sanitation facilities include various
types of toilets, and sanitation practices include practices such as open defecation.
 Improved sanitation: Flush/pour-flush toilets to sewage networks, septic tanks or pits;
ventilated improved pit toilets (VIP); and pit toilets with slab.
 Unimproved sanitation: Pit toilets without slab; hanging toilets over water; bucket
toilets; and open defecation (no access to a toilet facility). Households sharing toilets
with other households are also classified as having unimproved sanitation, regardless of
type of toilet.
 Sewage: Wastewater from households (and industry and other sectors) which is
collected and carried off in a sewage network. Sewage generally contains human excreta
and water and may also contain other wastes (e.g. kitchen waste).
 Sewage network: A closed system of sewage pipes used to carry off sewage and
drainage water. Improved toilets connected to a sewage network are classified as
improved sanitation and are often considered as the most developed stage on the
sanitation ladder.
 Hygiene: A procedure or system of procedures or activities used to reduce microbial
contamination on environmental sites and surfaces and the external body in order to
prevent the transmission of infectious disease (IFH, 2001).
Piped water supply to premises (yard/dwelling) and connection to a sewage network are
seen in most countries as the best opportunity to provide households with reliable and safe
drinking water and ensure safe and hygienic removal of human excreta and other
wastewater pollutants from the household and community environment.
Piped water supply from a central water intake and distribution outlet allows for treatment
of water and monitoring of water quality. If source water is generally of good quality and
the piped distribution networks are well-functioning, such a water supply system has the
potential to provide safe drinking water with minimal risk of disease.
Connection to a sewage network provides the added opportunity of minimizing pollution of
water and land resources through central treatment of wastewater.
75
Good hygiene practices are also of utmost important for disease prevention. The single
most important hygiene practice is hand washing with soap at critical junctures (after
defecation/going to toilet or cleaning a child feces, before cooking and eating, and before
feeding a child), found in many countries to reduce incidence of diarrhoea by as much as
45% (Curtis and Cairncross 2003; Fewtrell et al 2005).
4.2.2 Current status
The lack of permanent access to clean drinking water and to improved sanitation services
was an important environmental, as well as a health issue in Morocco in the last decades.
Local authorities are responsible for water supply and sanitation services. Major cities have
delegated water and sanitation services either to the private sector or to financially
independent municipal utilities.
ONEP is a profit-making autonomous public corporation, in charge of potable water
production and transmission in bulk to large urban distribution utilities. As small cities and
rural areas lack capacity, they increasingly are requesting ONEP’s assistance to manage their
water distribution services. As a result, its mandate was broadened over time to include the
provision of water supply services—and, more recently, sanitation services—to small towns
and rural areas. At the end of 2008, ONEP covered 80% of national water needs and
provided water to 28% of the Moroccan population (5.6 million people in medium-sized
cities and 2.8 million people in rural areas).
ONEP’s organizational structure and internal procedures translate into fixed costs that are
too high to make service provision in rural areas profitable. In recent years, ONEP has tested
different models of private sector involvement, from established standpipe managers to
more comprehensive performance-based service contracts. ONEP is piloting Morocco’s first
public-private partnership to subcontract water service provision and management in rural
areas. During the first years of the ten-year contract, the private operator will receive
performance-based subsidies from ONEP under an output based aid (OBA) approach. This
will allow the operator to break even early enough to develop a profitable business within
the existing tariff structure. If successful, this model for rural water supply could be scaled
up in other small towns and surrounding rural areas, thus presenting business opportunities
for the Moroccan private sector while enhancing access to piped water services for the
poor. (Chauvot de Beauchene, 2009)
Recent household surveys in Morocco (e.g. Enquête nationale sur l’emploi 2007) indicates
the following population rates of access to potable water and sanitation in 2008.
(WHO/UNICEF, 2010a).
76
Access to drinking water:
 Nearly 60% of the population in Morocco have piped water supply on premises.
 Over 20% use other improved drinking-water sources.
 Nearly 20% rely on unimproved drinking-water sources (Table 4-1).
Access to sanitation:
 Over 45% of the population have flush/pour flush toilets connected to a sewage
network system.
 Over 20% have access to other improved toilet facilities.
 Over 30% of the population rely on unimproved sanitation.
Population coverage of piped water supply and sewage connection is substantially higher in
urban than in rural areas.
Table 4-1 Household access to drinking water and sanitation facilities, % of population 2008
Drinking water
Piped water on premises
Other improved water sources
Unimproved water sources
Sanitation
Toilet connected to sewage network
Other improved sanitation
Unimproved sanitation*
of which: open defecation
Urban
88%
10%
2%
Rural
19%
41%
40%
Total
58%
23%
19%
82%
1%
17%
0%
1%
51%
48%
38%
46%
23%
31%
17%
* including toilet facilities shared by households.
Source: Produced from WHO/UNICEF, 2010a,b.
Of the urban population, 98% had permanent access to an improved drinking water (mainly
by municipal networks (91%) and public fountains (9%) and 83% had access to improved
sanitation in 2008. However, about 2 million Moroccans remain without access to water
supply and/or sanitation services in peri-urban areas of Morocco’s main cities. In the
Casablanca metropolitan area alone, an estimated 145,000 households (or 900,000
inhabitants) do not receive adequate water supply and/or sanitation services. These
residents get water from contaminated shallow wells, from water providers who charge a
relatively high unit price or from standpipes which often require women or children to
queue for several hours. Access to basic sanitation is even more deficient: a majority of
households use cesspits and poorly designed septic tanks, which risk increasing
contamination of shallow groundwater. Many of the poorest people remain without any
form of sanitation. These deficiencies directly affect people’s health and their ability to
engage in income-generating activities—or, for children, to attend school. They also harm
the finances of water utilities, which usually attain very low cost recovery from these public
standpipes (the municipalities or communes responsible rarely pay the bills).
77
Only 60% of the rural population was using improved drinking water sources, compared to
55 per cent in 1990. The situation has thus not significantly improved over the past decades
and the percentage remains low.
Several factors have contributed to this situation:



Unplanned growth of peri-urban areas has systematically left them out of the service
areas of water and sanitation operators.
Technical and administrative hurdles make it difficult for operators to intervene in illegal
settlements, mostly because basic access roads are lacking.
Operators have difficulty financing infrastructure for households perceived to consume
in the loss making “social tranche” of existing water tariffs.
Connection fees are charged to the beneficiaries at their marginal costs19, topped with a
“first settlement fee,” thereby driving costs of access to unaffordable levels for most
households living in the city outskirts, even when the option of payment by installments is
available through “social connection” programs20. (Chauvot de Beauchene, 2009).
Many households are now asking for domestic water connections, but ONEP’s fixed costs
make service provision to smaller communities through the development of domestic
connections a loss-making business.
Since the mid-1990s, Morocco has made big strides in developing access to potable water in
rural areas. Nowadays, the problem is largely addressed in the frame of large investment
programme undertaken by the government, through ONEP.
However, Morocco continues to have relatively low access rates to safe water and
sanitation in rural areas. Thus, the Government of Morocco has decided to accelerate the
pace of investment in rural areas, in order to achieve an access rate of 92% by 2010. (World
Bank and ONEP, 2010).
ONEP, has developed an important network of standpipes in rural communities and nearly
90% of the rural population has access to a source of drinking water, mainly (80%) through
standpipes (public fountains). The program of generalizing access to drinking water in the
rural area succeeded in 2009 in supplying an additional population of 246,000 inhabitants,
besides 120,000 people in 24 centres21.
Morocco is now on track to exceed the targets for water and sanitation services contained
in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), thanks to greater public spending on water
supply and sanitation infrastructure. Between 2005 and 2009, public expenditure in support
of urban, peri-urban, and rural water supply and sanitation infrastructure programs rose to
19
In Morocco, connection fees include a portion of the upstream infrastructure necessary to deliver service to
that connection, hence driving the cost even higher for people living in peri-urban areas not served by the
existing network—who, in general, are the poor.
20
Through “social connection” programs, service providers give households the possibility of paying the full
connection cost in installments. Households take out a loan for a period varying from 3 to 10 years to access
basic services and service providers diversify from their core business to include financial services.
21
according to figures released on 9 July 2010 by ONEP's board of directors.
78
25% from 5% of the total public expenditure for water (which also covers water resource
management and irrigation).22
Targets to be reached by 2020
Targets for which benefits are assessed in this study are:
Drinking-water:
 Achieving 100% population connection (except in isolated rural areas) to reliable and
safe piped water supply at household premises.
 Ensuring that the population currently having piped water supply continuously
receives reliable and safe water at household premises.
 Providing plentiful and equally safe drinking water from other improved water
sources in isolated rural areas.
Sewage connection:
 Achieving 100% population connection (except in isolated rural areas) to a sewage
network system. The country’s own estimate (by the Secrétariat d’Etat à l’Eau et à
l’Environnement) is that by 2020 the overall connection to sewage network will be
80% against 70% today.
 Upgrading to flush toilet (with sewage connection) for households with dry toilet or
no toilet).
 Providing improved sanitation to households currently without such facilities in
isolated rural areas.
Hygiene:
 Improving hygiene practices especially ensuring good hand-washing with soap at
critical junctures wherever such practices are currently inadequate for protection
of health.
While a piped water supply and connection to a sewage network have many advantages,
these systems are, however, not necessarily free from problems. Piped water can get
contaminated in the distribution network before reaching the household, and sewage may
seep into the environment from leaky and broken network pipes. Thus, in order to achieve
the targets, existing piped water and sewage networks may need rehabilitation to minimize
water supply contamination and cross-contamination from sewage networks. Proper
functioning also requires continuous appropriate pressure in existing and new piped water
networks for a reliable supply of water.
Status of hygiene practices is generally not available in most countries unless detailed
studies/surveys have been undertaken. What is clear, however, is that substantial
improvements in hygiene practices can be achieved in most countries in the world. As
22
World Bank website, Morocco, Results Profile
79
status of hygiene practices is not well known in Morocco, the assessment in this study
provides a benefit range of achieving the targets that at the lower end reflects an
assumption that hygiene practices are generally adequate for protection of health and at
the higher end reflects an assumption that practices can be substantially improved. In
reality, benefits may be expected to be somewhere in between these two values.
Baseline to 2020
To estimate the number of beneficiaries and benefits of achieving the targets, the targets
are compared to the percentage of the population currently with piped water supply on
premises, connection to a sewage network system, and good hygiene practices adequate for
health protection. As hygiene practices are not well known, a range of 0-100% is applied.
Other baseline data are presented in Table 4-2. These data represent projections or a
business-as-usual scenario as if no water, sanitation and hygiene interventions were
undertaken to reach the targets.
Baseline assumptions:
 Birth rates are projected to decline by 5%.
 The diarrheal child mortality rate and diarrheal incidence rates are assumed to be
constant.
 The child mortality rate from other infectious diseases is projected to decline by 2%
per year.
 Average household size is assumed constant over the period to 2020.
Table 4-2 Baseline assumptions, 2020
Population (million)
Birth rate (births per 1000 population)
Mortality rate from diarrhoea among children < 5
years
(deaths per 1000 live births)
Mortality rate from other infectious diseases among
children < 5years
(deaths per 1000 live births)
Diarrhoea (cases/year, children < 5 years)
Diarrhoea (cases/year, population >= 5 years)
Household size
2008
(actual or
estimated)
31.6
20.4
2020
(projected or
business-as-usual)
36.2
19.4
4.5
4.5
10.9
2.5
0.5
5.2
8.6
2.5
0.5
5.2
Source: Data for 2008 and population projections are from World Bank (2010) and WHO (2010).
Household size is from the Morocco MICS 2006 (MOH. 2008). Cases of diarrhoea are estimates from the
Morocco MICS 2006 (MOH. 2008) and comparable countries in the region.
80
Improvements achieved by reaching the targets
The improvements from reaching the targets by 2020 are the difference between the
specified targets and the baseline assumptions.
Improvements include:
 An additional 15 million people or 2.9 million households would have reliable and
safe piped water to premises, and an additional 19 million people or 3.7 million
households would have connection to a sewage network system (Table 4-3).
 As some rural communities may be too isolated to be provided these services, an
unspecified but relatively small number of these people would be provided plentiful
and equally good quality water from other improved water sources and improved
sanitation facilities if currently without such facilities.
 Potentially a large share of the population that already has piped water to premises
would benefit from improvements in reliability and quality of water (so as to have
safe water on premises) by improved central water treatment and rehabilitation and
upgrading of existing water distribution networks.
 Depending on current hygiene practices, potential beneficiaries of hygiene
promotion range from 0 – 36 million people or 0 – 7 million households.
Table 4-3 Number of beneficiaries of reaching the targets, 2020
Reliable and safe piped water supply to
premises
Improvement in reliability and quality
of water among those currently with
piped water supply
Connection to sewage network
Improved hygiene practices
Number of
people (million)
Number of
households
(million)
15.2
2.9
0-21.0
19.4
0-36.2
0-4.0
3.7
0-6.9
Source: Estimates by the authors.
4.2.4 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reaching the targets
Provision of reliable and safe piped drinking water, connection to a sewage network system
(and and flush toilet for those with dry toilet or no toilet), and practice of good hygiene
(personal, household and community) have many benefits including health, environmental,
economic and social. A generic overview of these benefits is provided in The benefits of
improved potable water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices are summarised in Table
4-5.
Some of these benefits (environmental, recreational, improved water resources) are
discussed in the sections on Wastewater Treatment, Surface Water Quality, and Water
Scarcity).
81
Many of the benefits of reliable and safe piped water supply and connection to a sewage
network are difficult to quantify. An indication of some of the social benefits of providing
sewage connection (or improved sanitation in isolated rural areas) is considerable time
savings and increased convenience and social status for the 17% of the population that
currently practices open defecation.
An indication of some of the social benefits of providing local water sources is considerable
time savings, by reducing the time required to fetch water and by making domestic tasks
faster to complete, thus having a positive impact on school attendance for girls.(Brody et al.,
2008). A World Bank Rural Water Supply and Sanitation Project in Morocco succeeded in
increasing girls’ school attendance in six provinces by 20% over 4 years, in part attributable
to the reduced burden on young girls to fetch water. (Fisher, 2006) The case study included
in Table 4-4 below illustrates the benefits of equipping rural schools with safe drinking water
and sanitation facilities.
Table 4-4 Case study: improving water availability and sanitation in rural schools
Education in Morocco is free and compulsory through primary school (age 15). Nevertheless, many children particularly girls in rural areas, where half of the population lives - do not attend school. This is reflected in the
country-wide literacy rates. The country's literacy rate reveals sharp gaps in education, both in terms of
gender and location; while country-wide literacy rates are estimated at 39.6% among women and 65.7%
among men, the female literacy rate in rural areas is estimated only at 10%. (US Department of State, 2011).
Studies show that several factors keep children, in particular girls, from attending school result, such as poor
health status, involvement in farm activities, e.g. fetching water and digging irrigation canals (linked to water
scarcity), but also lack of sanitation facilities.
Generally, the sanitation water situation in Morocco has improved over the past decades, but the availability
situation has not, and the situation remains worrying for both parameters. This is demonstrated by the fact
that many rural schools lack access to safe drinking water and sanitation facilities, which has a negative
impact on the health of the children and on the school attendance rate. To improve the situation, the
government institutions responsible for education and for environment have set up in 2008 a joint
programme to improve water availability, sanitation and hygiene in rural schools. The programme, which runs
till 2015, primarily aims to increase of the schooling rate in general, and of girls in particular. In addition, it
also aims to raise the environmental awareness of rural communities, through the children.
The objectives will be met installing a system for drinking water provision in 14,911 rural schools and by
installing sanitation facilities (i.e. a toilet block, with a toilet and a washbasin, and a septic tank) in 17,785
rural schools. As for the raising awareness component of the programme, the teachers are being trained on
sustainable development and “environmental clubs” are set up in the schools. In 2009, 452 schools were
equipped with sanitation facilities, and in 2010, 490. The cost to equip 2150 schools is estimated at 258
million dirhams.
The main benefits of programme are:
- An increased schooling rate of children, and of girls in particular,
- An improvement in the school performance of the children,
- A reduction in the incidence of diarrhoea and other diseases, which are closely related to
water availability and sanitation. For example, a 1990 survey in Morocco revealed a high
occurrence of diarrhoea, where 26.8 per cent of surveyed children had had diarrhoea in the
previous two weeks. (WHO,1991) Diarrhoeal diseases are big killers of children under 5
years old.
- Increased environmental and hygiene awareness of the children
- Reduction of the environmental impact of the schools.
82
The benefits of improved potable water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices are
summarised in Table 4-5.
Table 4-5 Benefits of improved potable water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices
Good quality piped water supply
Health
benefits






Environmental 
benefits

Economic
benefits



Connection to a sewage network
system (and flush toilet for those with
dry toilet or no toilet)
Good quality piped water supply enables improved hygiene practices.
Good quality piped water supply, hygienic sanitation (flush toilets connected to
sewage network) and good hygiene practices reduce the presence and
transmission of pathogens, thus reduce the incidence of diarrhoea and other
diseases (Fewtrell et al, 2005).
Reduced incidence of diarrhoea in early childhood contributes to improved
nutritional status among children (World Bank, 2008).
Good hygiene practices (especially regular hand washing with soap) also reduce
transmission of respiratory infections (Rabie and Curtis, 2006; Luby et al, 2005).
Reduced chemical, heavy metal, and other toxic substances contamination of
drinking water reduce the incidence of associated diseases and health
disorders.
Reduction in infant mortality rates, which are still high in Morocco and which
are directly linked to unsafe drinking water.
Piped water connection and
Sewage collection provides opportunity
improved piped water quality do not for proper treatment of wastewater
lead to direct environmental
which helps improve environmental
benefits.
quality including cleaner communities,
However, some benefits to habitats
cleaner urban and rural waterways (e.g.,
and water resources may accrue if
water utilities press for protection or canals), cleaner rivers, lakes and coastal
waters, and reduced pollution of land
restoration of water quality of raw
resources (see sections on Wastewater
water abstraction sources.
Treatment and Surface Water Quality).
Piped water connection with reliable
and continuous good quality water
reduces/ eliminates the need for:
o household water storage
tanks
o Spending time and money
on household point-of-use
treatment/ disinfection of
water prior to drinking or on
purchase of bottled water.
Time savings from household
connection can be used for incomegenerating activities for adults and
improved education for children
Good quality piped drinking water,
which enables improved hygiene
83


The environmental benefits (see
above) of sewage collection and
proper treatment of wastewater
can provide substantial recreational,
tourism, and fishery benefits. (see
sections on Wastewater Treatment
and Surface Water Quality).
Good treatment of wastewater can
also:
o allow for wastewater reuse
in agriculture
o provide substantial cost
savings in mobilizing and
treating potable water,
especially important in
water scarce countries (see
Table 4-5 Benefits of improved potable water supply, sanitation and hygiene practices
Good quality piped water supply


Social benefits



practices,
o reduces public and private
health care expenditure
o improves labour
productivity and reduces
work absenteeism.
Access to good quality water can
also provide cost savings to
industries and make them more
competitive, especially those
relating to the food and beverage
processing.
Rehabilitation of existing piped
water distribution networks (to
improve water quality) reduces
water losses and thus costs of
providing potable water.
Piped water connection provides, or
is expected to provide, affordable
access to a safe, continuous and
reliable supply of water at home, of
suitable quality and quantity. This
provides increased convenience
from having potable water available
at premises.
Access to good quality piped water
also improves the public’s
perceptions of utilities and the state
providing good quality services.
Skills can be transferred at the
grassroots level, in rural areas,
through the use of local materials
and water-system building
techniques.
Connection to a sewage network
system (and flush toilet for those with
dry toilet or no toilet)
section on Water Scarcity).
Sewage connection (and hygienic toilet
on premises for those currently without
it)
 increases household convenience
(no needs for emptying and
maintaining sewage pits/septic
tanks; reduced access time to toilet
facility or place of defecation),
 and reduces odours and nuisance
from preventing direct sewage
discharge into the local
environment.
Source: Authors.
4.2.5
Quantitative assessment
As many of the benefits of reliable and safe piped water supply and connection to a sewage
network are difficult to quantify, the assessment in this study is limited to:
 reduced incidence of diarrheal disease,
 reduced mortality from diarrheal disease, and
84
 reduced mortality from infectious diseases associated with improved nutritional
status in young children from reduced incidence of diarrhoea.
Expected reduction in annual incidence of diarrheal disease and diarrheal mortality from
reaching the targets is presented in the table below by population groups in relation to their
current status of water supply, sanitation (i.e., sewage connection), and hygiene practices.
Among young children, these diarrheal disease reductions are expected to somewhat
improve their nutritional status and thus reduce the risk of fatality from infectious
diseases.23
Some clarification of these expected disease and mortality reductions are warranted. While
groups 1-2 currently have piped drinking water supply, some households are likely to have
sub-optimal water quality when connected to old, leaky networks and/or networks with
fluctuating pressure and irregular continuity of supply, as water will be susceptible to
contamination along the water distribution network even if water is well treated at central
treatment plants.
A 15% reduction in diarrheal disease and mortality is therefore expected on average for
these population groups from improvement in reliability and quality piped water. For
population groups 3-4, which currently do not have piped water supply, a 25% reduction in
disease and mortality is expected from receiving reliable and safe piped water supply to
premises and in greater quantities than from their current water sources.
Connection to sewage network (and flush toilets for those currently without such toilets) for
groups 2 and 4 reduces the risk of pathogen transmission and is expected to reduce disease
and mortality by an incremental 20%. If there also is substantial scope for improvement in
hygiene practices among any of these population groups, disease and mortality reduction is
expected to be an additional 30%.24
Based on the current distribution of population water and sanitation coverage, reaching the
targets is estimated to reduce diarrheal disease and diarrheal mortality nationwide by 33%
if the entire population has good hygiene practices adequate for health protection, and 65%
if hygiene practices can generally be substantially improved. In actuality, disease and
mortality reduction likely falls somewhere in between these two values, depending on
current hygiene practices.
23
See World Bank (2008) for a discussion and quantitative assessment of the nutritional impacts and associated health
outcomes of repeated diarrheal infections in young children.
24
The expected diarrheal disease and mortality reductions are based on adaptations of findings reported in Arnold and
Colford (2007), Clasen et al (2007), Fewtrell et al (2005), and Curtis and Cairncross (2003).
85
Table 4-6 Expected diarrheal disease and diarrheal mortality reduction from reaching the targets
by population group
Expected average reduction
in diarrheal disease and
mortality
Groups
Already
good
hygiene
Substantial
scope for
hygiene
improvement
15%
45%
35%
65%
25%
55%
45%
75%
National total 100%
33%
Source: Authors. Population distribution estimated from WHO/UNICEF (2010a, b).
65%
1
Current water
supply and
sanitation
coverage
Piped water
supply and
sewage
connection
3
Piped water
supply but no
sewage
connection
Not piped
water supply
but sewage
connection
4
Not piped
water supply
and no sewage
connection
2
4.2.6
Population
distribution
2008
44%
14%
2%
40%
Water and sanitation
improvement
Improvement in reliability and
quality of piped water (so as to
ensure plentiful and safe water
supply) for those of this population
currently having water reliability
and quality problems
a) Improvement in reliability and
quality of piped water (so as to
ensure plentiful and safe water
supply) for those of this population
currently having water reliability
and quality problems.
b) Sewage connection (and flush
toilet for those with dry toilet or no
toilet) for all of this population.
Reliable and safe piped water
supply to premises for all of this
population
Reliable and safe piped water
supply and sewage connection (and
flush toilet for those with dry toilet
or no toilet) for all of this
population
Monetary assessment of the benefits
The annual benefits in year 2020 of achieving the targets amounts to 8-16 million avoided
cases of diarrhoea and 1,410-2,794 avoided deaths (Table 4-7).
The value to society of these benefits is estimated at €672-1,333 million or DH 5.0-9.8
billion, equivalent to about 0.5-1.0% of GDP in 2020.
The benefits are valued at €280,700 or DH 2.1 million per death and €24 or DH 248 per case
of diarrhoea.
All figures are in 2008 purchasing power parity (PPP) adjusted Euros and 2008 DHs.
86
Table 4-7 Estimated annual benefits in 2020 of meeting the water, sanitation and hygiene targets
Diarrhoea
Deaths
Morbidity
Mortality
Total
Total (% of GDP)
Annual cases avoided
Low
High
8,204,066
16,261,832
1,410
2,794
Annual monetized benefits
Million € (PPP)
Million DH
Low
High
Low
High
277
548
2,035
4,033
396
784
2,916
5,780
672
1,333
4,951
9,813
0.50%
0.99%
Source: Estimates by the authors. Note: “Low” represents cases avoided and costs if the population already has
good hygiene practices adequate for health protection. “High” represents cases avoided and costs if population
hygiene practices can generally be substantially improved.
4.3
Benefits from improving the level of waste water treatment
4.3.1 Definition of the parameter
This parameter is considered because the level of waste water treatment if often rather
poor and there is substantial room for improvement in many of the countries under study,
or in parts of them. Poor waste water treatment leads to damage to the natural
environment and can substantially affect water quality. Health impacts are discussed under
the parameter ‘Connection to sewage network and hygiene conditions’.
The following definitions apply:





Urban waste water: domestic waste water or the mixture of domestic waste water with
industrial waste water and/or run-off rain water. (CEC, 1991)
Domestic waste water: waste water from residential settlements and services which
originates predominantly from the human metabolism and from household activities.
(CEC, 1991)
Industrial waste water: any waste water which is discharged from premises used for
carrying on any trade or industry, other than domestic waste water and run-off rain
water. (CEC, 1991)
Waste water treatment: any process that reduces the amount of the suspended solids,
and dissolved compounds and micro-organisms harmful to the environment and/or the
human health in waste water. Only treatment in facilities operating with the approval of
environmental and/or health authorities should be considered. (WHO 2002)
Primary treatment: treatment of urban waste water by a physical and/or chemical
process involving settlement of suspended solids, or other processes in which the BOD5
of the incoming waste water is reduced by at least 20 % before discharge and the total
suspended solids of the incoming waste water are reduced by at least 50 %. (CEC, 1991)
87



Secondary treatment: treatment of urban waste water by a process generally involving
biological treatment with a secondary settlement or other process. (CEC, 1991)
Tertiary treatment: The process which removes pollutants not adequately removed by
secondary treatment, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus; accomplished by means of
sand filters, microstraining, or other methods. (EEA, undated)
Eutrophication: the enrichment of water by nutrients, especially compounds of nitrogen
and/or phosphorus, causing an accelerated growth of algae and higher forms of plant
life to produce an undesirable disturbance to the balance of organisms present in the
water and to the quality of the water concerned. (CEC, 1991)
4.3.2 Current state of waste water treatment and potential environmental
improvements
Urban waste water
Wastewater management in big cities is under the responsibility of the “Regies Autonomes”
or private firms, while in small cities the municipalities are in charge of wastewater
collection and treatment.
Though approximately 80 % of urban households are connected to a collection system, only
about 20 % of wastewater is currently treated. Few Moroccan cities have operating
wastewater treatment plants and therefore, the remaining 80 % is being released directly,
without appropriate treatment, into rivers (32%), and sea (48%) (often directly on the
beachfront or through the oueds) and 20% on the soil without any treatment. (LDK ECO SA,
2006). In addition, the Moroccan coasts are being ravaged by waste and litter. Water
pollution is not only a major environmental and health issue, but is also hampering the
development of tourism.
Infrastructure for wastewater management is insufficient. The rates for connection to the
sewage network should be increased. More water treatment plants should be constructed
and properly maintained and operated. In 2005 there were about 69 wastewater treatment
plants but only 42% (29) where operational (Ali Agoumi, 2006), although 235 urban centres
are equipped with a sewage network. Currently there are 71 wastewater treatment plants
for urban effluents (WWTPs). Table 4-8. Gives an overview of key indicators for waste water
discharge and treatment.
88
Table 4-8 Wastewater discharge and treatment [2008]25
Primary
treatment
Secondary
treatment
Tertiary
treatment (if
any)
101 000
82 000
217 000
5.3
4.3
11.3
About 71
-
-
-
920 000
400 000
300 000
220 000
3 823 492
557 758
804 708
2 461 026
1.8
2.5
7.8
Total
Total waste water
discharged (m³/day)
Waste water treated
(m³/day)
% treated over total
waste water discharged
# WWT plants
WWT plants total
installed capacity
(m³/day)
# inhabitants
connected to WWT
plants
% connected over
population
1 918 000
400 000
20.9
12.1
Table 4-9 shows the baseline in 2020 and the environmental improvement.
As for the definition of the baseline in 2020, it has been estimated how many people will be
connected to primary/secondary/tertiary waste water treatment in 2020, using the same
share of the population connected in 2008 (%) over population projections in 2020.
As for the environmental improvement, the assessment is based on the increase in
population connected to secondary water treatment, if 100 % connection were to be
achieved. The table below shows that if this target were to be met in 2020, the
environmental improvement, in terms of population connected, would be significant.
Table 4-9 Waste water treatment: baseline in 2020 and environmental improvement
Population
[2020]
Population
increase rate
Estimated
population
connected to
primary treat
in 2020
37,861,819
20 %
668,164
Estimated
population
connected to
secondary treat
in 2020
963,997
Estimated
population
connected to Target (100%
Env
tertiary treat in
at least
improvement*
2020
secondary)
[2020 values]
2,948,176
37,861,819
33,949,646.3
Env
improve
ment
(share)
Env
improvement
[current
values]
89.7%
28,339,882
*Env improvement = target - secondary – tertiary
Industrial waste water
Although Morocco's primary pollution problem is the contamination of water sources with
raw sewage, industrial pollution is a growing problem. Industrial wastewater is discharged
usually untreated to the sea, either through the urban sewage network or directly in oueds
25
Based on information from the « Programme national d'assainissement » (PNA) and from the secrétariat
d'État de l'eau et de l'environnement (SEEE)
89
(dry river beds). Very few industrial plants operate successfully their WWTPs, therefore
industrial emissions represent a serious threat for the quality of the marine coastal
environment at the vicinity of urban and industrial areas. Industrial accidents have
contributed to environmental contamination and are becoming increasingly common. Oil
tankers travelling along Morocco's coast also have been a significant source of coastal water
pollution. (LDK ECO SA, 2006)
4.3.3 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving waste water treatment
An overview of key benefits from improved waste water treatment is provided in Table
4-10.
Table 4-10 Overview of key benefits of improving waste water treatment
Health benefits
Economic benefits
Social benefits
Most health benefits are related to sewage collection, rather than
treatment per se, as sewage that is not appropriately collected can cause
significant health problems (such as diarrheal diseases, dysentery etc).
These benefits are therefore assessed under the ‘sewage connection’
parameter and not here, to avoid duplication.
 The increased and improved treatment of wastewater is meant to
lead to a reduction in nutrient discharges and, therefore, a reduction
in eutrophication in aquatic ecosystems, with due improvements to
the eco-systems and associated recovery of fish and other aquatic life.
 It must be noted that nutrient removal does not just arise from
tertiary treatment. Significant removal also occurs with secondary
treatment.
 The main drinking water source is surface water (from dams and
rivers). A reduction in contaminants in the abstracted waters would
bring direct financial benefits in terms of reduced costs of treatment
for potable water.
 Thanks to increased/improved water treatment, surface water should
be more suitable for economic uses such as cooling water and
industrial water. This will bring significant direct cost reductions to
water intensive industries in particular.
 The investment in environmental technology and improvement in the
skills of those working in the water industry will assist in enhancing
the economic base of the country.
Most health benefits are related to sewage collection, rather than
treatment per se), such as nuisance related to odours from direct
discharge of sewage in the environment, etc. These benefits are therefore
assessed under the ‘sewage connection’ parameter and not here, to avoid
duplication.
4.3.4 Quantitative assessment of the benefits of improving waste water treatment
The health benefits from improved waste water treatment accrue jointly with improved
sanitation. The joint assessment is done under chapter 4.2. No additional information was
available on quantified benefits.
90
4.3.5 Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving waste water treatment
The health benefits from improved waste water treatment accrue jointly with improved
sanitation. The joint assessment is done under chapter 4.2. No additional information was
available on monetised benefits.
4.4
Benefits from improving surface water quality
4.4.1 Introduction
This section reports on the assessment of the health, social, environmental and economic
benefits to society for Morocco derived from the achievement of a given policy target for
surface water quality improvements by 2020. The benefits are analysed in two ways:
qualitatively and monetarily, through an economic valuation of the benefits. As for the
quantitative assessment of the benefits of improving surface water quality, it is included in
the monetary estimation. The aim of the economic valuation exercise is to estimate the
total economic value of all possible uses people in the country would make of surface water
that meets the policy target by estimating what local residents would be willing to pay for
the changes. The given policy target consists of an improvement from current conditions to
the EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) target of “Good Ecological Status”. The approach
followed to value improvements in surface water, is the following: values of a UK study that
has determined the willingness to pay of households for cleaner water have been adapted
for and transferred to Morocco.
The achievement of Good Ecological Status for surface waters in Morocco is important
because of current trends in water pollution and availability. These are in most cases
beyond the assimilative capacity of the aquatic ecosystems, which make freshwater quality
a principal limitation for sustainable development.
Considering the benefits derived from water quality improvements is essential for making
sound decisions regarding the country’s aquatic ecosystems and habitats. Decisions could
for example relate to efficient and equitable infrastructure investment in the water sector,
to the efficient degree of wastewater treatment and to the design of policy measures,
including economic instruments such water pricing or taxes on water depletion and
pollution.
Society’s preferences for environmental improvements do not have a market value and
have to be estimated in monetary terms by using valuation techniques. ‘Non-market
valuation’ techniques must be applied to establish this portion of the total economic value
of water use. Valuation techniques are based on either revealed preference (based on
observed market values that can be used as substitutes for the improved environmental
resource) or on stated preferences (based on surveys of willingness to pay, especially for
household water use and recreational services).
Determining the value of an individual’s or community’s use of water is very difficult,
because water values are highly site-specific, dependent on type of uses, as well as season,
91
water quality, availability and reliability. As for types of uses, people make different uses of
water resources, which translate into different values. For example, the value of water for
cooling purposes in hydropower is different to that of water used for irrigation in agriculture
or for fishing in a lake.
The total economic value of water is a combination of use and non-use type of values. Use
values include direct use and indirect use values. Non-use values include existence values,
option and bequest values. An example based on hypothetical improvements in river water
quality has been chosen to explain each category below:
Use Values arise from the actual and/or planned use of the service by an individual, and be
direct or indirect:
 Direct, such as when an individual makes actual use of the environmental asset
improved, for example, fishing where it was not possible to catch a fish before the
improvements in water quality took place;
 Indirect use values, are the benefits derived from ecosystem functions gained, for
example, where recreational activities are created or enhanced due to water quality
improvements, individuals can benefit in the form of increased recreational
opportunities without having to make a direct use of the resource (e.g. walking
alongside the river bank).
Non use values are often divided into:
 Existence values, which arise from knowledge that the service exists and will
continue to exist, independently of any actual or prospective use by the individual.
This type of use refers to the economic value people place on improvements to the
quality of a river due to some moral and/or altruistic reasons, or for the mere
pleasure of knowing that the river’s water has been enhanced;
 Option values refer to the value place on resource’s future use. Because individuals
are not sure whether they will use the resource in the future, they are willing to pay
to maintain the ability to use it
 Bequest value is the value an individual places on the ability to preserve a resource
so that it can be used by future generations.
Due to the lack of regional valuation studies on the topic, and the impracticability, due to
time and budget constraints, to conduct an original valuation study, the Benefits Function
Transfer (BFT) approach has been applied to estimate the total economic value of cleaner
water. This method allows for the incorporation of differing socio-economic and site quality
characteristics between the original study site for which the original benefits estimates were
obtained and the policy site under evaluation. Under this approach, typically only one
original valuation study is selected. The main assumption made is that the statistical
relationship between willingness-to-pay (WTP) values for improvements and independent
variables are the same for both the study and policy site. In other words, the method
assumes that preferences/tastes are the same for both locations and differences in WTP are
only related to differences in socio-economic and/or environmental context variables.
92
For this report, the benefit functions from Baker et al. (2007) have been transferred to
Morocco. This study has recently estimated the economic value placed by English and Welsh
households for water quality improvements at local and national level as a result of
implementing the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in the UK. This study is one of few
studies that employed a standard WFD ecological-based water quality metrics for
description of baseline levels and improvements. As an additional feature, Baker et al.
(2007) offers detailed results for two different WTP elicitation methods in the same survey
instrument, i.e. Contingent Valuation (CV) using both payment card (PCCV) and
dichotomous choice (DCCV) as payment mechanisms. The advantage behind the use of two
different elicitation methods for the transfer exercise (the PCCV and the DCCV results) is the
need to offer ranges of WTP estimates that are representative for policy purposes and
illustrate the uncertainty surrounding the results (i.e. sensitivity analysis).
The benefits from water quality improvements covered in this section by the application of
the BFT method are related with the quantifiable portion of the total economic value of
particular use and non-use types derived from the enjoyment of good water quality by local
residents of the country. The specific types of water uses covered in the model are
highlighted with examples in Table 4-11. Important to note that it is not possible to
disaggregate values for the different types of uses outlined below and that other types of
water uses are valuated and assessed in other sections of this report.
Table 4-11 Types of surface water quality improvements covered
Potential
Water
Quality
Benefits
Current
use
benefits
Types of water uses
Direct use In Stream
Indirect
use
Near Stream
Option
Non Use
Existence
Bequest
Example
Recreational activities: Fishing, swimming, boating
Recreational activities: Hiking, trekking
Relaxation, enjoyment of peace and quiet
Aesthetics, enjoyment of natural beauty
Preferences for future personal use of the
resource
Maintaining a good environment for all to enjoy
Enjoyment from knowledge that future
generations will be able to make use of the
resource in the future
In order to transfer the benefit functions from Baker et al (2007), the following variables
have been adjusted from the original model:





Current fresh water quality levels in Morocco (information collected in-country);
Average income levels per household in Morocco (World Bank);
Education levels in Morocco (World Bank);
Population number, Household Gender composition and Household occupancy in
Morocco (World Bank);
Other socio-economic stats: GDP figures in € and DH, PPP conversion factors and
projections in Morocco (World Bank).
93
These parameters are used in the WTP formulae to directly calculate Annual Willingness to
Pay (WTP) for set improvements in freshwater quality per household per year.
4.4.2 Current state of surface water quality
The aim of this section is to provide an understanding of current water quality levels in the
country that were used to feed the benefit transfer model that has been applied for the
assessment of the benefits.
The baseline water quality information used from Morocco to feed the benefits transfer
model indicates that presently 64% of the catchment area of rivers in the country fails to
achieve good ecological status according to the WFD.
The river network in the country accounts for a total river length of 4,052 km.
Table 4-12 illustrates the results of the water quality assessment for the main rivers of
Morocco according to national water quality classifications. This information has been used
to estimate the baselines used for the BFT model.
Table 4-12 Water quality of main rivers
Rivers
Bouregreg
Loukkos
Souss Massa
Oum Er-Rbia
Tensift
Ziz-Guir & Rheris
Sebou
total
Length
(km)
190
109
340
425
240
873
400
2577
Excellent
Good
Medium
Bad
Very bad
0%
0%
0%
5%
11%
24%
0%
42%
0%
0%
66%
24%
50%
32%
32%
13%
58%
21%
21%
5%
13%
18%
39%
29%
8%
34%
11%
16%
8%
47%
13%
0%
11%
11%
39%
6%
31%
23%
22%
18%
In addition, there are a total of 43 dam lakes (DGH, 2004) with a total capacity of 14,753
millions m³ (in 2004).
Unfortunately, even though an assessment of each of the lakes water quality is available,
there is no information on their surface area and therefore, it is not possible to have an
overall assessment of their quality at national level to feed the BT model. Accordingly, the
surface water quality benefits assessment for Morocco accounts only for improvements in
rivers.
As for sea water quality, the coastal marine environment constitutes the principal dumping
place for urban and industrial wastewater, since it receives 98% of the industrial liquid
effluents and 52% of the domestic effluents of the country. Also, oil pollution of the coastal
marine environment and the shores of Morocco because of the very intense maritime
94
traffic, is an issue of primary concern. Maritime accidents lead to marine pollution.
Furthermore, the existence of important harbour infrastructures along the Moroccan
coastline represents additional sources of pollution for the beaches at their proximity. (LDK
ECO SA, 2006).
4.4.3 Potential environmental improvements and targets
The water quality parameter employed in this valuation exercise measures the water
quality of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, transitional and coastal waters (up to three nautical
miles) in Morocco.
The WFD defines which biological elements must be taken into account when assessing
ecological status of a water body and distinguishes five status classes: high, good,
moderate, poor and bad. ‘High status’ is defined as the biological, chemical and
morphological conditions associated with no or very low human pressure. This is also called
the ‘reference condition’ as it is the best status achievable - the benchmark. These
reference conditions are type-specific, so they are different for different types of rivers,
lakes or coastal waters so as to take into account the broad diversity of ecological regions in
Europe. Assessment of quality is based on the extent of deviation from these reference
conditions, following the definitions in the Directive. ‘Good status’ means ‘slight’ deviation,
‘moderate status’ means ‘moderate’ deviation, and so on.
Good ecological status is defined in Annex V of the WFD, in terms of the quality of the
biological community, the hydrological characteristics and the chemical characteristics of a
water body. Because of geographical and ecological variability, GES has been generally
described as that water quality condition which represents only a slight departure from the
biological community which would be expected in conditions of minimal anthropogenic
impact.
The practical definition of ecological status takes into account specific aspects of the
biological quality elements, for example “composition and abundance of aquatic flora” or
“composition, abundance and age structure of fish fauna”. In addition, The WFD requires
that the overall ecological status of a water body is being determined by the lowest scoring
biological or physicochemical quality element (i.e. the quality element worst affected by
human activity). This is called the ‘one out - all out’ principle. For all specific pollutants
(which are a sub-set of the chemical and physicochemical quality elements) with the
exception of ammonia, compliance with the environmental quality standards for good
status has to be consistent with classification as high or good ecological status. Whether
high or good status assigned can depend on the condition of the other quality elements.
The targets used for the benefits assessment are those which have been used by the original
valuation study, which are (as a target for their models) compliance with the WFD at
national level, which translated to the national classification represents the achievement of
excellent or god water quality levels. WTP values as presented in Baker et al., (2007) relate
to a permanent increase in real annual payments (increase in water bills and other
expenses) that a household is willing to pay for reaching two alternative scenarios of 75% to
95
95% of all water bodies in the country reaching Good Ecological Status by certain key dates
(2015, 2022, 2027).
In the case of Morocco, the quantitative target is the following: 49% (as the average
between the achievement of the 75 and 95% improvement scenarios respectively) of all
surface area of rivers in the country will be improved to good ecological status by 2020 (or
to excellent and good water categories according to the national classification).
4.4.4 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving surface water quality
Water quality influences human uses of the affected resources, leading to changes in use
values and non-use values of the resource. It is difficult however, to quantify the
relationship between changes in pollutant discharges and the improvements in societal
well-being that are not associated with direct use of the affected ecosystem or habitat. That
these values exist, however, is indisputable, as evidenced, for example, by society’s
willingness to contribute to nature conservation organisations. Therefore, there is a need in
this section to highlight in qualitative terms all the possible benefits that can be derived
from improvements in water quality, including those that cannot be quantified.
An overview of key benefits derived from improved surface water quality in Morocco can be
found in Table 4-13. The table reflects the range of goods and services that are provided to
society by a healthy water environment. Please note that some of these benefits have been
covered under other sections of this document.
Health benefits



Environmental
benefits



Polluted water is a major cause of human disease and death.
The key diseases avoided are those of the alimentary system. Microbial (both
bacterial and viral) contaminants (e.g. E-coli) can cause a range of problems
from mild disorders to major diseases such as dysentery. Some disease will
occur from infection from regularly occurring intestinal bacteria, while others
are diseases passed on from those already infected.
Treatment to remove common bacteria (such as faecal coliforms) will also
destroy a wide range of more dangerous, if infrequent, bacterial diseases.
Physical effects translate into biological impact, i.e. eco-system damage and
biodiversity loss.
The presence of pollutants/toxic substances in water (e.g., metals, pesticides),
affect a wide range of animal, fish and vegetation, both freshwater and marine:
o Species may be affected by direct toxic effects on metabolism and the
disruption of endocrine functions, which often impacts on the
reproductive system.
o Some substance can also be accumulators both within the
environment (e.g., sediments) and within animals (bioaccumulation).
Therefore they can represent a significant threat even in small
concentrations.
Excessive nitrates concentrations cause extensive harm to the environment
through eutrophication. Nitrates greatly stimulate the growth of algae. The
decomposition of such algae reduces the water’s dissolved oxygen content,
96
Economic
benefits





Social benefits





adversely affecting fish and other aquatic life forms. Decreases in nutrient
loadings thus benefit aquatic habitats. This, accompanied by lower sediment
and pesticide loadings, results in increased fish and waterfowl populations.
Cleaner surface water resources can:
o reduce costs to industry (e.g. for pre-treatment),
o reduce costs to society by avoiding that the cost of remediation and of
drinking water treatment escalates,
o stimulate the development of new environmental technologies (e.g.
for water treatment),
o avoid microbiological contamination of food crops,
o increase fish populations and catch,
o enhance the potential for tourism,
o increase the value of property
Water pollution is both a cause and an effect in linkages between agriculture
(the single largest user of freshwater on a global basis) and human health:
o Agriculture is a major cause of degradation of surface and groundwater
resources through erosion and chemical runoff. Measures to reduce
the negative impact of agriculture can lead to improved farm practices
and reduced costs. Such measures may include e.g. stimulating a more
efficient use of fertilisers and pesticides.
o Avoiding microbiological contamination of food crops, stemming from:
use of water polluted by human wastes and runoff from grazing areas
and stockyards. This applies both to use of polluted water for
irrigation, and by direct contamination of foods by washing vegetables
etc. in polluted water prior to sale. Crops that are most implicated with
spread of these diseases are ground crops that are eaten raw.
Increased fish stocks and harvest: reducing pollution is expected to enhance
aquatic life habitat and thus to greatly contribute to increasing freshwater and
coastal fish populations. These population increases would positively affect
subsistence anglers, commercial anglers and fish sellers, and consumers of fish
and fish products.
The coastal bathing areas have a strong potential for tourism. An improvement
in quality of bathing waters (where this is currently poor or below standards)
can ensure that more tourists are attracted to the area and thus revenues for
local economy are secured.
Aesthetic degradation of land and water resources resulting from pollutant
discharges can reduce the market value of property and thus affect the
financial status of property owners.
Water pollution affects the quality of living in the areas nearby surface waters.
Water pollution can reduce the amenity value and tourism development
benefits to local communities as this restricts the use of waters.
Improved surface water quality will favour recreational uses, such as
swimming, boating, angling and outings. Improved water appearance and
odour make it more desirable and visually appealing, for recreation.
Pollutants can also have effects on health (see above) and therefore can place
a strain on social support systems within a community and lead to a feeling of
isolation of that community from the social structure of the country as a whole.
Even if no human activities are affected by water quality degradation, such
97
degradation may still affect social welfare. For a variety of reasons, including
bequest, altruism, and existence motivations, individuals may value the
knowledge that water quality is being maintained, that ecosystems are being
protected, and that populations of individual species are healthy completely
independent of their use value.
4.4.5 Monetary assessment of the benefits of improving surface water quality
This section illustrates the range of monetary benefits in Morocco from an improvement in
water quality from current conditions to “Good Ecological Status”, which is the overarching
environmental objective of the EC Water Framework Directive (WFD). The monetary
benefits are equal to the estimated amount of money that households in Morocco would be
willing to pay for improved surface water quality by 2020.
The following aspects must be considered when making use of the results reported below:
 only people resident in Morocco are considered. Any possible value that visitors to
the country may have on the overall quality of water resources is not accounted for
in this method;
 values have not been separated by types of uses of water, although the types of
values outlined in table 4-8 are all covered in the analysis;
 the analysis illustrates a portion of the total economic value of water quality
improvements in Morocco, only valuation of people’s preferences for changes in
quality are included here, other chapters illustrate other types of values
 it has been assumed that all water bodies in the country have the same value. This
assumption becomes important when considering that values for some water bodies
may be higher if they are of significant importance (for example for cultural reasons)
or if water resources are scarce. Values may also decrease when overall water
quality in the country increases as a result of the improvements.
Table 4-14 shows results of the transfer of estimated economic values of water for the UK in
Baker et al (2007) to Morocco. Mean WTP values for the 85% overall water quality
improvement scenario in Morocco ranges between €34.9 and €160.7 per year per
household depending on the two payment mechanism used in the original contingent
valuation method employed in Baker et al., 2007. Results are shown in a range to illustrate
the degree of uncertainty associated with the benefits estimates. The lower end of the
range represents mean values of the PCCV format and the upper-bound range is derived
from the DCCV model. The benefit transfer provides “order of magnitude” results, in order
to communicate the scale and significance of the potential benefits arising from improved
surface water quality.
98
Table 4-14 Water quality improvements benefits assessment results for Morocco
WTP results (€
per HH year) in
2020
lower
34,9
upper
160,7
WTP results (DH
per HH year) in
2020
lower
264,44
upper
1218,86
Aggregated
benefits WTP in
2020 (million
€/year)
lower Upper
242.5 1,117.5
Aggregated
benefits WTP in
2020 (million
DH/year)
lower
upper
1,839
8,475
Benefits as a
percentage of GDP
in 2020
lower
0.19%
upper
0.86%
Multiplying WTP values by 6,954,038 number of households projected in 2020, gives total
benefits figure for WFD related water quality improvements in Morocco by 2020 in the
range of € 242.5M - €1,117.5. In terms of GDP share these figures are in the range 0.19% 0.86%.
4.5
Benefits from reducing water resource scarcity
4.5.1 This section
Morocco is a water scarce country, and securing an uninterrupted supply of water for
human consumption, agriculture, industry, and tourism has been a constant concern.
Morocco has significantly invested in an increase in water storage capacity, through the
construction of dam reservoirs, though serious water problems remain, also due to
consecutive years of drought.
Management of water requires balancing the needs of people and economic development
through agriculture, industry and municipal uses, and environmental requirements so that it
continues to sustain the ecosystems on which humans depend. This section provides an
assessment of water scarcity and the benefits associated with reducing water scarcity and
improving integrated water resource management.
It does this through assessing the level of water availability, threats to water availability and
the primary uses of water. It predominantly involves undertaking a qualitative assessment
of benefits that include for example, reduced crop loss due to drought, reduced losses
through fish kills due to low river flows and improved access to and along waterways.
Where water scarcity is an issue, both a 'demand-led' and ‘supply-led’ approach to
‘integrated water resource management’ should be adopted, focusing on conserving water
and using it more efficiently, to complement appropriate capture and storage of water.
4.5.2 Definition of parameter
Water scarcity is defined as ‘the point at which the aggregate impact of all users impinges
on the supply or quality of water under prevailing institutional arrangements to the extent
that the demand by all sectors, including the environment, cannot be satisfied fully’. Water
scarcity is a relative concept and can occur at any level of supply or demand. Scarcity may be
a social construct (a product of affluence, expectations and customary behaviour) or the
consequence of altered supply patterns - stemming from climate change for example. In
99
this case, water resource scarcity is taken to cover the availability of renewable freshwater
and the extent of its use.
A key parameter to assess water scarcity is the Total Actual Renewable Water Resources
(TARWR). TARWR is the maximum theoretical amount of water actually available for the
country, generally calculated from:
a. Sources of water within a country itself (ground water and surface water, less any
overlap effectively shared as it interacts and flows in both the groundwater and surface
water systems);
b. water flowing into a country
c. water flowing out of a country (treaty commitments).
In this calculation TARWR is added to the water obtained by desalination (potable water
obtained from treatment of saltwater) and wastewater re-use (Water obtained from
treatment of wastewater available for re-use).
According to the European Environment Agency (2009), one relatively straightforward
indicator of the pressure or stress on freshwater resources is the Water Exploitation Index
(WEI) (also known as the Water Stress Index and Relative Water Stress Index). This is
calculated annually as the ratio of total freshwater abstracted (withdrawal) to the Total
Actual Renewable Water Resource (TARWR). A WEI above 20 % implies that a water
resource is under stress and values above 40 % indicate severe water stress (Raskin et al.,
1997).
In addition, the UN26 indicates that hydrologists typically assess water scarcity by looking at
the water available per Capita. An area is considered to experience water stress when
annual water supplies drop below 1,700 m³ per person. When annual water supplies drop
below 1,000 m³ per person, the population faces water scarcity, and below 500 cubic
metres "absolute scarcity".
In this section, a number of water scarcity indices are covered, as defined below:

Water Available per Capita = TARWR/population

Total Water Use per Capita = Total withdrawal per year / population

Municipal Water Use per Capita = Municipal withdrawal per year / population
The main uses of water covered in this assessment are:

Agricultural water: Water supplied to crop production, animal husbandry, hunting,
fishing, and forestry.

Municipal water: Water supplied to the community and individuals.

Industrial water: Water supplied for the production of non-food products.
These uses must be addressed in the context of environmental requirements, in this
document this is quantified by environmental flows which is ‘the streamflow required to
maintain appropriate environmental conditions in a waterway’.
26
See http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.html
100
4.5.3 Current state of water resource use
Water sources and water availability
Morocco has around 29 km3 of renewable water available to it each year. As shown in Table
4-15, the majority of this is surface water (22 km3) that is generated within the country as
none of this comes from rivers in neighbouring countries (Algeria,). Groundwater recharge
provides a further 10 km3, although 3 km3 of this also flows as surface water. There is some
provision of desalinated water in Morocco, though no wastewater reuse.
Table 4-15 Water resources
Water Sources:
Surface water (SW)
% SW from neighbours
Ground water (GW) recharge
Less overlap of GW and SW
Desalinated Water
Wastewater reused
Total Actual Renewable Water
Water available
(km3/yr = 109m3/yr)
22
0%
10
-3
0.01
0
29.01
Source: FAO (2011).
With two maritime borders (the Atlantic Ocean to the west and the Mediterranean Sea to
the north), Morocco is relatively well supplied compared to other countries of North Africa.
In addition, the mountain ranges, which cover a substantial part of the national territory, act
as reservoirs.
Annual rainfall is estimated at some 150 billion cubic meters (m³) overall. However, two
constraints must be noted: rainfall variation in time and space. Morocco has always had
drought years, but their frequency and severity have greatly increased since the early 1980s.
Spatial distribution of rainfall in Morocco is characterized by declining gradients from north
to south and from west to east. Certain regions receive 600 to 700 millimetres (mm) per
year, while others receive less than 100 mm.
Three basins on the Atlantic Ocean side (Sebou, Bouregreg, and Oum Rbii) hold two thirds of
the freshwater potential. Waters flowing towards the Mediterranean or towards the Sahara
nearly disappear at times (Bennis A., 1998).
Threats to water availability
Water is the most precious natural resource in Morocco, in particular in rural areas, but its
availability is threatened. Some of the current problems and threats relating to water
availability in Morocco are highlighted in Table 4-16. Linked to these is the threat of climate
change which is considered likely to exacerbate many of these issues, in particular by
increasing the frequency, length and gravity of extreme events, i.e. drought and flood.
101
Table 4-16 Threats to water availability
Threat
Drought
Overabstraction and salinisation
Water losses in the distribution
System
Soil erosion
Water losses in the distribution
system
Surface water pollution
Irrigation
27
Description
Since the 1980s, successive years of drought resulted in a nearly
continuous drop in reservoir water levels. In drought years, many of the
rivers run dry (during the summer months) and the water resources
available reduces by around 60%. The recurrent droughts have forced
many people to rely on groundwater to satisfy at least a part of their
water needs, which lead to the drilling of thousands of wells to
guarantee a parallel supply of water for the most urgent needs, not to
mention the massive amounts required for tourist amenities such as
swimming pools and golf courses. Groundwater is thus being rapidly
depleted. In southern Morocco, farmers in Agadir report that the water
table is falling by 1.5 to 3 meters per year, requiring them to deepen
wells every year or two. (World Bank 2009)
Morocco’s coastal aquifers constitute an important component of the
country’s water resources. These aquifers are exposed to overabstraction and salinisation, and this is reflected by the decrease of
groundwater levels and deterioration of the water quality.
Water losses in the distribution system are estimated to be around 30%
due to the old infrastructure.
- Soil erosion and degradation of ground vegetation reduces the
soil’s water-retention capacity.
- Accumulation of sediment as a result of soil erosion declined the
capacity of the (+ 1000) dams that provide water for agricultural,
domestic and industrial purposes, by 10%.
Water losses in the distribution system are estimated to be around 30%
due to the old infrastructure.
Major river basins, including the Sebou River Basin that constitutes
nearly 1/3 of Morocco’s water resources, have been heavily polluted.
The dam lakes on principal rivers (Bouregreg, Oum Er-rbia,
Moulouya,…), the main source of drinking water (70%), are polluted.
Sources of pollution:
- untreated industrial and municipal waste
- agricultural runoff: Morocco’s farmers are among the greatest
users of fertilizer and other agricultural chemicals in Africa
- wastewater generated in urban areas is often discharged untreated
into the environment.
The agriculture sector is slow in adopting techniques and equipment
that economize water irrigation. Morocco uses 85% of its water for
irrigation, yet only 14% is actually irrigated27.
Currently most irrigation canals are made of earth. Water evaporates
easily and seeps out, wasting as much as 1/3 of the supply. Cement
canals, water pipes, and basins conserve precious water, and irrigate
previously dry land, dramatically increasing agricultural productivity.
They also open up the region and provide the opportunity to build
service centres, such as schools and health clinics.
"Water in Morocco: International Development Research Centre.", 11 Feb. 2009 http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev65879-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html
102
Water use
The estimated water withdrawal for 2005 is shown in Table 4-17, revealing that agricultural
use dominates significantly, with a small proportion for municipal use. Comparatively little is
used by industry.
Table 4-17 Water use
Water use
Agriculture
Municipal
Industry
Total withdrawal per % of
annum (109 m3/yr)
total use
11.01
87%
1.23
10%
0.36
3%
Total
Source: FAO (2011).
12.6
100%
Increased demand for drinking water for tourism, industry and above all agriculture has led
to the overuse of water resources, with major consequences for the country’s
socioeconomic development.
Water scarcity
This gives an overall water exploitation index (WEI28) of 43% (i.e. total freshwater abstracted
as a proportion of total renewable water available), which implies water is used within its
availability in Morocco. Water resources are scarce though and in addition they are
unevenly distributed over the various regions and heavily dependent on climatic variations.
Water is relatively plentiful in the north, where water-scarce areas are located mostly in the
south. While surface water is unevenly distributed throughout Morocco, groundwater is
more universally available. However, exploitation in several basins has surpassed natural
replacement rates. By 2020, it is estimated by the FAO that groundwater exploitation at the
national level will exceed natural replacement by 20%. Table 4-18 lists the water scarcity
indices.
Table 4-18 Water scarcity indices
Index
#
Unit
Water Exploitation Index
43%
Percentage water use to availability
Water Available per Capita
0.92
103 m3/person/yr
Total Water Use per Capita
0.40
103 m3/person/yr
Municipal Water Use per Capita 0.04
103 m3/person/yr
Source: Estimates by the authors based on FAO (2011).
Water supply is therefore a great challenge for the country whose population is projected to
grow with nearly 20 % by 2020, with increasing urbanization and industrialization rates.
28
Note that a WEI of over 20% implies water resources are under stress, and values above 40% imply severe
stress and unsustainable use of water (Raskin et al, 1997)
103
Key existing management initiatives
Since its independence in 1956, the government has invested heavily in reservoirs. This
increase has resulted in a nine-fold increase in water storage capacity (and an 80%
mobilization rate for surface water) which has helped Morocco to compensate for its
uneven geographical distribution of water resources and erratic rainfall patterns. Without
this huge capacity increase, the country would not be able to achieve the Millennium
Development Goal of access to safe drinking water; the reservoirs also sustain large
irrigation systems. (World Bank 2009)
Faced with spreading shortages, the government together with the private sector, is
currently investing in transfer schemes to channel water from the north, where it is
relatively plentiful, to water-scarce areas further south.
Under the National Charter for Environment and Sustainable Development29, the target is
to increase waste water recycling to more than 96%. The treated water will be used to
irrigate green spaces and farms
4.5.4 Baseline in 2020
Determining a water resource ‘no action’ baseline for 2020 for any country is extremely
difficult due to the multitude of complex factors influencing water supply and demand,
requiring a detailed study of its own. There is no readily available data on projected
domestic, agriculture and industry water demands. In terms of domestic use, the predicted
population change for 2020 is significant (+ 20 %). Also, more households will become
connected to mains supply. Domestic use in absolute figures and per capita is thus likely to
increase significantly. A steady increase in production can be observed for most crops.
However, this is due mainly to increased yield, as the area devoted to agriculture remained
relatively stable. Water demand for agriculture is thus not likely to increase, in particular if
the initiatives taken to improve irrigation efficiency, such as the use of drip irrigation, prove
to be successful. Morocco’s predicted sustained economic growth will result in increased
water demand by industry.
Targets
In terms of establishing targets, due to the complexity of water resource use and
management and the considerable contextual variation between and within countries, it is
not always that useful to recommend a specific water exploitation index target.
However, the EU does suggest that countries should, where appropriate, aim to lower their
WEI towards 20-40%. A reduced WEI should allow more water to be available to maintain
29
King Mohammed VI presented the Charter on April 22, 2010, during the celebration of Earth Day's 40
anniversary,held in Rabat,
104
th
and enhance wetlands and water bodies with improved biodiversity and ecosystem services
(e.g. fisheries, recreation and navigation etc).
What is more important is that a sustainable, 'demand-led' approach to ‘integrated water
resource management’ is adopted, focusing on conserving water and using it more
efficiently. In addition, the following Millennium Development Goals should also be
targeted:
a. Ensure appropriate ‘environmental’ flows are ensured to maintain wetland ecosystem
goods and services;
b. Change social, economic and regulatory instruments that are inappropriate for water
allocations and uses; and
c. Mediate water conflicts across the sectors through participation of appropriate
stakeholder groups.
Potentially relevant actions to achieve the targets described above, may include actions
such as repairing water distribution networks, drought management plans, changing to low
water demanding crops, re-using water, collecting water, charging for water use (including
agricultural use) etc.
Potential environmental improvements
The ‘environmental improvements’ associated with moving from the baseline to the targets
described above mainly relate to increased water being available for use during summer
months and their being more water in the rivers, lakes and wetlands. In addition, the
increased volume of water within surface and ground waters will potentially improve water
quality through diluting pollution loads.
4.5.6 The benefits of reducing water scarcity
Qualitative assessment of the benefits
Improving water resource use and management will potentially lead to a multitude of
benefits.
An important health benefit is related to improving food security. Loss of food security
connected to reduced water resources and problems in agricultural production are leading
to chronic malnutrition of children, for which stunting and underweight are key indicators.
The national average for stunting (i.e. low height for age) of children under the age of 5 is
23%, 9% of the children are underweight (i.e. low weight for age) and 10 % are wasting (i.e.
low weight for height). Malnutrition has a significant health cost. The economic costs of
undernutrition and underweight include direct costs such as the increased burden on the
health care system, and indirect costs such as of loss of productivity.
Malnutrition has also significant social costs:
 As growth slows down, brain development lags behind and as a result stunted children
are more likely to learn poorly. (WHO, 2011).
105
 Reduction of water increased household work, which puts pressures on children. Limited
water availability- and economic hardships- are forcing many rural families in Morocco
to require support from their children with farm activities, including amongst other
fetching water and digging irrigation canals. These activities are often carried out to the
detriment of their education.
Other benefits, which focus on alleviating water scarcity and optimising overall water use
(as opposed to improving water quality), may be gained and are outlined in Table 4-19.
Table 4-19 Benefits of alleviating water scarcity and optimising water use
Health benefits


Environmental
benefits


Economic


Social



The health of poor agricultural based communities may improve if the
amount of crops and livestock lost to drought is reduced.
There could also be an improvement in health of local populations
through better diets if there is an increase in fish and fishing in rivers
and lakes, although other health problems could arise if the fish are
contaminated.
Scarcity of water is accompanied by deterioration in the quality of
available water due to pollution and environmental degradation.
Moreover, if environmental flows are maintained within rivers and
lakes, there will be more water available to maintain and enhance the
broad range of habitats and species that depend upon there being
certain water levels within wetlands, rivers and lakes.
There could be significant gains in economic productivity of
agricultural output if agricultural water use and irrigation were better
managed. This would include increased agricultural output through
more efficient irrigation and reduced salinisation. In addition, there
would be a reduced loss of crops and livestock during periods of
drought.
There may be additional development benefits from industries that
require process water. Commercial fisheries could potentially be
enhanced.
If the environmental integrity of rivers and wetland habitats are
maintained, and they do not run dry, they can enhance the quality of
life of those people living nearby. This can arise through recreational
use of the water bodies.
In addition, there may be some cultural benefits (non-use benefits) to
some people from maintaining nearby water bodies.
In some cases there may be benefits relating to improving the
environment for tourism, whether through recreational boating or
visitors enjoying an improved view of healthy rivers.
Quantitative and monetary assessment of the benefits
This project did not attemp to quantify and to monetise the benefits of reducing water
scarcity through improved water resource management due to the complexity of the task
and the budgetary constraints. Also, little directly relevant quantitative data was readily
available. No relevant Morocco water scarcity valuation studies were identified. However, it
is worth pointing out that the potential economic losses associated with droughts and
reduced crop outputs can be substantial.
106
5
5.1
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING WASTE RELATED CONDITIONS
Introduction to waste related issues
More than half of the Moroccan population lives in urban areas, characterized by high
population densities and rapid growth and suffering from the effects of poor management
of municipal solid waste (MSW). MSW management is an important environmental issue in
Morocco, due to the mentality of the population (e.g. littering is a problem) and to the poor
infrastructure. MSW management, i.e. prevention, collection, treatment, recovery and final
disposal are a major challenge and requires urgent attention from decision-makers.
MSW management, i.e. prevention, collection, treatment, recovery and final disposal are a
major challenge and requires urgent attention from decision-makers.
The local authorities have the legal obligation to collect and to dispose of household waste.
However, in some urban and rural areas, the collection rate is low. Large quantities of solid
waste, including industrial waste, end up on –often-uncontrolled landfill sites, while only
limited amounts are recycled. In the larger urban areas, the uncontrolled disposal of
industrial waste is putting people’s health at risk. In the growing urban-industrial centres,
municipalities cannot keep up with the environmental protection and waste disposal tasks
entrusted to them. The level of private sector participation in collection and disposal in
larger towns is relatively high, but the quality of the services delivered by the private sector,
is not always sufficiently controlled.
Key waste management issues include:
 Poor waste management policy, focused mainly on "cleanliness" with very limited
attention to waste disposal and treatment
 Weak legal framework
 Weak institutional framework, which constrains effective strategic planning and
implementation, not only at the national and regional level, but also at the local
level:
o A lack of technical capacity to manage municipal waste collection and
disposal
o Lack of cooperation between municipalities
 Lack of sustainable funds for most municipalities to collect the waste and to
construct and operate landfills that meet essential environmental requirements
 Poor cost effectiveness of public-private partnerships, mainly due to limited
competition, lack of transparency, and poor accountability
 Inappropriate collection:
o Partial collection coverage of the population: no service for municipal waste
collection and disposal in several cities and the majority of rural areas
o Lack of appropriate waste collection vehicles and equipment
o No waste separation, reducing the opportunities for re-use and recycling
 Disposal of waste in an environmentally and socially inacceptable manner: few
sanitary landfills for municipal waste disposal; mostly dumpsites, contaminating soil
and ground water.
107
 No monitoring of soil, air or groundwater quality in the vicinity of municipal waste
disposal sites
 Very low number and capacity of recycling facilities
 A low level of public awareness
 Extended Producer Responsibility has not yet been introduced.
The situation has a negative impact on the livelihood and living standards of the population
and has potentially significant public health impacts. Furthermore, the lack of a sound waste
management system undermine Morocco’s status as and its potential to become a major
tourist destination, as tourists are increasingly concerned about environmental conditions
and the attractiveness of the environment and landscapes in their destinations of choice.
Waste management is an area in which the authorities have great potential to improve the
quality of public health, conserve natural resources and mitigate climate change. A large
portion of the waste could be converted into a resource to reduce the final volumes of
waste and subsequently the cost of final disposal, and to save natural resources. This
requires a change of existing waste practices and the implementation of strategies
dedicated to waste reduction, clean transport and recycling, composting and waste
treatment before final disposal. All stakeholders (national, regional and local governments,
the private waste management sector and waste generators, both households and industry)
should contribute to establishing a sound waste management system in the country.
According to the World Bank30, government financial allowance to the municipal solid waste
sector increased by 80% between 2008 and 2011.
This section will cover the following aspects of waste management:
- Waste collection coverage: the section includes a quantitative and monetary
assessment of the benefits of increasing collection coverage.
- Illegal /uncontrolled dumping of waste: The section includes a quantitative
assessment of the benefits of improved waste treatment.
- Methane emissions: The section includes a monetary assessment of the benefits of
methane capture.
The section concludes with a qualitative assessment of the benefits of a sound waste
management system.
Waste prevention is a key factor of the EU waste management strategy and should be a key
factor in any waste management strategy. However, for methodological reasons, the
benefits of waste prevention have not been assessed under this project.
30
http://go.worldbank.org/POC7VRZ840
108
5.2
Benefits from increasing waste collection coverage
5.2.1 Introduction to waste collection benefits
This sub-theme encompasses the benefits from increasing and improving waste collection in
urban and rural areas.
Benefits from enhanced collection of municipal solid waste are calculated by comparing the
2020 situation in case of business-as-usual with the future situation in which a higher level
of collection coverage would be reached. The target is set at 100% collection coverage in
2030. In the year 2020 collection coverage is assumed to be augmented in such a way that
the 2030 target can be reached. Increased collection coverage leads to avoided
environmental impact from non-collected waste, or to a decrease of dumped waste in noncontrolled or wild dumpsites. Socio-economic benefits include increased employment and
through an improved service, the value of which can be assessed by the willingness-to-pay
of the served population.
Definition of parameter: The parameter measures the number of people served by a
collection system for municipal waste.
- Collection system: any kerbside collection or bring-system that is set up and managed by
the municipality or in its behalf to collect mixed municipal waste in order to provide a
centralised waste treatment solution, even if this solution is not ecologically sound.
Excluded from this definition is occasional (often private) collection of recyclable wastes
with an economic value like metals or rags.
- Municipal waste: waste as generated by the normal activities of a household.
Comparable waste from small shops or manufacture are included. Large quantities of
construction and demolition waste, or end of life vehicles are excluded even if generated
by households. Industrial and agricultural waste is excluded as well.
5.2.2 Waste collection in Morocco
The local authorities have the legal obligation to collect and to dispose of household waste.
This requirement has its origins in the need to protect the health of the population. As to
the method and timing of waste collection, each municipality can make its own decisions.
Municipalities can delegate the service to a private company. The level of private section
participation is relatively high. In cities like Casablanca, Rabat, Fès, or El Jadida, collection is
done by private companies under concession. There are about 10 companies active, mainly
in collection and transfer, but also in landfilling. The 4 main operators are Moroccan
subsidiaries of European multinationals, such as Veolia, Ecomed and Tecmed, which control
about 80% of the current market (collection and landfilling).
Household waste is however not collected in all cities and rural municipalities.
109
As for the waste collection system, in cities where regular collection takes place, waste
containers are located in the streets at a reasonable distance from each other and are
emptied daily. In some cities, these containers are problematic, as they are often overfilled,
with waste spread around them, either because there are simply not enough waste bins for
the amount of waste generated or because the bins are not emptied as often as they should
be.
The cost of waste management has to be covered primarily from municipal budgets. The
lack of sufficient budget hinders the improvement of the waste management system. There
is no specific fee for solid waste management. A municipal services tax exists, but without
specific reference to waste management services. In addition, the collection rate for the
municipal services tax is low, and for several municipalities not exceeding 25 %. The cost of
waste management is thus not sufficiently recovered from the households and from other
waste generators. Additional financing comes from the general State Budget and the
Municipal Equipment Fund (Fond d’Equipement Communal, FEC). The Clean Development
Mechanism represents a financing opportunity. The limited funds that are available do not
allow for investments in improved services, equipment and infrastructure. As a result,
services provided are minimal, both in terms of quantity and quality, resulting in widespread
littering of natural landscapes and cultural sites.
In many cities and municipalities, there is a shortage of containers and of waste collection
vehicles. These vehicles are often old and mostly not designed to mechanically collect waste
from containers. Modern closed compactor waste collection trucks are used for waste
collection only in a few large cities, while open body trucks or tractors with trailers are used
in other areas. The collection and transportation of waste in open trucks leads to significant
littering on roads.
The collection shows a number of deficiencies, including the following:







Inadequate collection equipment (bins, vehicles);
Waste is not collected in all Moroccan cities. The collection rate is currently as low as 82
% in urban areas. (SWEEP-NET, 2010) For rural areas, there are no data available, but the
collection rate is very low.
Insufficient awareness of the population of the need for proper collection;
Insufficient cleaning of the streets.
No separate collection of recyclable fractions.
Insufficient waste recycling.
Insufficient control by the municipalities of the concessionaires.
In cities and rural areas, where no regular collection service is provided, the population has
to solve the waste problem themselves. Usually they dump the wastes in nearby ravines,
along road sides, or onto river banks. Eventually, these dumps are converted into small,
uncontrolled “landfills, creating potential health hazards. Illegal scavenging is also practiced
on wild dumps and may lead to health problems for the scavengers.
The situation is problematic from an esthetical and economic perspective, as agricultural
land is being lost and soil fertility is being reduced. The weak collection practice has also a
110
negative health impact, as littering creates the risk of diseases and parasites proliferation,
and a negative environmental impact, in particular on water quality and biodiversity.
To improve the efficiency and the effectiveness of existing waste management practices,
the National Waste Management Programme (Programme National des Déchets Ménagers)
has established the following objectives:
-
An increase of the collection rate to 90 % of waste generated by 2015 and to 100 % by
2020
Upgrading the waste collection system, and making it more professional
The development of sorting of household waste
Increasing the awareness of the population.
Other efforts that are undertaken include:


The development of economic instruments that aim to recover the cost of waste
management from those that generate the waste ;
The development of mechanisms and instruments to control the quality of the services
delivered by the private sector companies to whom the municipalities have delegated
services.
5.2.3 Amounts of waste collected and disposed
The amounts of municipal waste generated keep rising, due to the significant socioeconomic development. Municipal waste is characterized by its high humidity (70%) and
organic matter content (50 - 70%). (LDK ECO SA, 2006)
The amount of municipal waste generated in 2010 is estimated at 5 million tons per year in
urban areas and at 1.5 million ton in rural areas. Based on this we can calculate the average
MWS generation per capita for the whole country, as shown in Table 5-1.
Table 5-1 Amounts of waste generated
population
31,605,616 inh
rural
44 %
urban
56 %
rural pop
13,906,471 inh
urban pop
17,699,145 inh
rural MSW generation 1,500,000,000 kg
urban MSW generation 5,000,000,000 kg
rural MSW/cap
107.86 kg/cap
urban MSW/cap
282.50 kg/cap
average MSW/cap
205.66 kg/cap
Source: Calculation by the authors, using data from World Bank (2010) and data
reported by authorities during country mission in 2010.
111
The total quantity of household waste generated in urban areas is expected to rise to 6.2
million in 202031.
The MSW quantities generated are expected to reach 8.68 MT by 2030.
For this report, the following assumptions were made for the assessment of the amounts of
waste disposed:




Average waste generation: The average waste generation of the urban population
(people living in large towns) is 205.66 kg /inh/year. There are no figures about rural
population.
Waste collection coverage: The waste collection service coverage for urban population is
82%. We assess (based on expert opinion) the collection coverage for rural population as
very low, at an assumed percentage of 20%. Taking into account the balance of 56%
urban and 44% rural population in 2008, we assess collection coverage for the whole
country at 54.72%.
Population growth: Population growth is assessed at a yearly increase of 0.98%, based
upon population figures of 31,605,616 inhabitants in 2008 and 39,160,000 in 2030.
GDP/capita growth is assessed at a yearly increase of 2.03%
The calculation below estimates the total amount of municipal waste which is dumped or
incinerated in a non controlled way as around 3. 47 million tons/year.
Wnc  Aq * Tpop *
Wnc:
Ag:
Tpop:
CC:
100  CC 
100
Total amount of waste that is yearly dumped or burned in a non controlled way
Average waste generated in kg/capita/year = 205.66
total population = 31,605,616 inh
% of collection coverage = 54.72%
Wnc = 205.66* 31.605.616 *[(100-54.72)/100] = 2.94 million ton/year
5.2.4 Baseline scenario waste collection
The baseline from now to 2020 is an assumed business-as-usual situation in which the
collection coverage does not increase or decline. The situation is fully determined by
demographic evolution and by the evolution of the average generation of waste per capita,
in line with augmenting GDP. Based on projections, the total amount of waste that will not
be collected and therefore assumed dumped or burned in a non-controlled way in 2020 will
amount to around 4.18 million tons/year.
31
Morocco, MSW carbon finance program, PID, World Bank( 2011).
112
Table 5-2 Baseline total municipal waste generation
population
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
31,605,616
31,915,018
32,227,449
32,542,939
32,861,517
33,183,214
33,508,060
33,836,086
34,167,323
34,501,803
34,839,558
35,180,619
35,525,018
GDP
(000M€)
63.55
64.84
66.16
67.50
68.87
70.27
71.69
73.15
74.64
76.15
77.70
79.27
80.88
kg/inh/year
tonnes/year
205.7
210
214
218
223
227
232
237
242
246
251
257
262
6,500,000
6,696,873
6,899,709
7,108,689
7,323,999
7,545,829
7,774,379
8,009,851
8,252,455
8,502,407
8,759,929
9,025,252
9,298,610
Source: Author’s Calculation
To calculate the amount of waste that is dumped or incinerated in a non controlled way,
following formula is used
2020
Wnc2020  Aq2020 * Tpop
*
Wnc:
Ag:
Tpop:
CC:
100  CC 
2008
100
Total amount of waste that is yearly dumped or burned in a non controlled way, in 2020
Average waste generated in kg/capita/year in 2020 = 262
total population in 2020 = 35,525,018
% of collection coverage in 2008: the baseline assumes no shifts in the actual collection systems =
54.72%
Wnc for 2020 = 262 * 35,525,018* 0.45 = 4.18 million tons/year
5.2.5 Targets
The target is full coverage of the total population, rural and urban, in 2030 (2030 being the
year that EU targets are calibrated for; the targets are then adjusted for the amount of
progress achieved by 2020). Increased collection leads to less waste sent to wild dumpsites
or wild burning, and thus a reduced negative impact on the environment and human health.
113
Table 5-3 Yearly increase of MSW collection coverage
54,72 % population covered by municipal waste collection in 2008
100 % population covered by municipal waste collection in 2030
2,78 % yearly increase
Table 5-4 Target municipal waste generation (tonnes/year): 100% collection coverage(%) in 2030
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
waste generated
6.500.000
6.696.873
6.899.709
7.108.689
7.323.999
7.545.829
7.774.379
8.009.851
8.252.455
8.502.407
8.759.929
9.025.252
9.298.610
collection coverage
54,72
56,24
57,80
59,41
61,06
62,76
64,50
66,29
68,13
70,03
71,97
73,97
76,03
waste collected
3.556.800
3.766.350
3.988.245
4.223.213
4.472.024
4.735.494
5.014.487
5.309.916
5.622.751
5.954.016
6.304.798
6.676.247
7.069.579
5.2.6 Environmental improvements
The environmental improvement of reaching the collection targets is based on the amount
of waste for which non controlled disposal is avoided. It is the difference between the total
amount of dumped waste in the business-as-usual scenario in 2020 and the total amount of
dumped waste in the collection-coverage-target compliant scenario in 2020. The
assessment assumes that, according to the target-compliant-scenario, collection will evolve
towards 100% coverage of all waste generated in 2030.
Estimated environmental improvements in MSW collection:
collected in 2020 in baseline
collected in 2020 in scenario
supplementary collected in 2020
5,088,200 tonnes
7,069,579 tonnes
1,981,379 tonnes
Source-Author’s Estimation.
The improvement in waste collection between the business as usual scenario and the target
scenario, is equal to nearly 2 million tons.
5.2.7 Benefits assessment
114
A qualitative assessment of improved collection, disposal and increased recycling is included
at the end of this chapter.
Environment
The quantitative assessment of environmental benefits focuses on the benefits of reducing
the size of land polluted by uncollected waste/dumpsites, thanks to the expansion of the
collection coverage. The following assumptions are used:
Following assumptions are used:



Average dumpsite depth of 1 meter
Average density of dumped waste of 340 kg/m³
Reduction in volume through biodegradation and uncontrolled fires at the dumpsites of
2/3
To calculate the total size of uncontrolled dumpsites avoided by expanding the collection
coverage to 100% in 2030:
Total non collected municipal waste generated until 2020 (kg) * 2/3 reduction in volume
through uncontrolled fires at dumpsites * 1/340
or
2 million tons supplementary collected waste * 1/3 * 1/340 = 1,960,784 m² polluted land
avoided
Economic
A rough assessment of economic benefits can be done by estimating the impact on job
creation of an expanded waste collection system. Based on data for Mascara32, the
collection efficiency on a waste loader is 90 kg/h. This figure is based upon daily collection,
using small recipients and using a modern small compacting truck. For collection in rural
areas not yet covered by collection, the analysis assumes a lesser number of loaders and a
collection frequency closer to once a week instead of daily, as a consequence larger
volumes per individual collection. This will lead to higher efficiency. Hence, the analysis uses
an estimated collection efficiency of 900 kg/h, in line with the collection efficiency in
Bulgaria33. The annual wage is estimated at 7,696 €/year. The estimation is done as
follows:
32
ECOLAS (ARCADIS) Schema directeur de gestion des déchets solides au niveau de l’agglomération urbaine
de Mascara, rapport de la mission 1, 2007
33
ARCADIS, Preparation of Solid Waste Management Measures in Pazardjik, Pleven and Vidin Regions
Bulgaria, EuropeAid 117409/D/SV/BG, Waste management scenario report
115
Source: Author’s Estimation
An average working day for waste collection lasts 7 hours, and a work year includes 220
days.
To supplementary collect 1.98 million tons of municipal waste, at the actual efficiency, jobs
can be created for 1,430 work years or fees for a total amount of 11,005,280 €, plus some
supplementary jobs for management and support. More adequate techniques, like bring
systems and once/week collections can influence job creation.
Monetary assessment
The monetary assessment uses a generic assumption that any household not receiving
waste collection services will be willing to pay 1% of their income for waste management34.
The monetary value of extended waste collection coverage can be calculated using this
willingness-to-pay value:
The average income of the people supplementary served with waste collection and
treatment is assessed at 2,872 €/y. This is the national average, and may be an
exaggeration as most people supplementary served will be rural people with lower
average incomes. However this exaggeration can be compensated by applying the
average income of 2008 on the year 2020 without taking into account increasing GDP.
21 % of the total population in 2020 will be supplementary served with municipal waste
collection, this is 35,525,018 * 21% = 7,569,791 inhabitants
This population represents an income of 7,569,791 * 2,872 € = 21,740,439,752 €
Willingness to pay is estimated at 217,404,397 €.




5.3
Waste treatment
5.3.1 Introduction to benefits of enhanced waste treatment
The primary target assessed in this sub-section is the elimination of non-controlled waste
dumping, with replacement by sanitary landfills. Supplementary targets have been defined,
based on European Union targets for recycling of specific waste fractions and for landfill
diversion of biodegradable waste. The recycling targets are applicable on the amount of
waste being generated in 2030. The landfill diversion target to be reached in 2030 is based
on a percentage of the biodegradable waste generated in 2010. The target year is set at
2030 because of the ambitious character of the targets. For consistency with the other
parameters, the assessment calculates to which degree these targets will be approached in
2020. The environmental benefit consists of avoided dumping and increased recycling or
34
ARCADIS, Preparation of Solid Waste Management Measures in Pazardjik, Pleven and Vidin Regions –
Bulgaria, EuropeAid 117409/D/SV/BG
116
composting of waste. This leads to societal benefits in the fields of environmental and
health impact reduction, resource savings and quantifiable job creation.
Definition of parameter:
Quantities and environmental impacts of waste landfill, incineration, composting and
recycling, compared to wild dumping or burning
-
-
-
-
-
Waste: everything one discards, intends to discard or is obliged to discard (definition in
line with the EU Waste Framework Directive). Included is waste destined for recycling,
even after a pre-treatment step. Excluded is clean soil, manure, nuclear waste. Economic
value is no criterion to include or exclude something as a waste.
Municipal waste: waste collected by services for the collection of household waste. It
may contain waste from small enterprises or municipal services collected in the same
collection scheme. Large quantities of construction and demolition waste, end of life
vehicles are excluded even if generated by households. Industrial and agricultural waste
is excluded as well.
Landfill: disposed in managed landfill sites with a least an impermeable bottom liner,
leachate capture, daily coverage, fencing and permanent staff. To be distinguished from
unmanaged dumpsites.
Incineration: thermal destruction of waste in dedicated installations equipped with flue
gas treatment, or co-incineration in energy plants or cement kilns working at
comparable environmental conditions. To be distinguished from wild or uncontrolled
occasional burning of waste.
Recycling: making a usable non-waste product out of waste. The recycling process does
not stop at the level of pre-treatment (e.g. sorting) but ends when the waste is used as a
raw material to make a non waste product.
5.3.2 Overview of the situation
General
Waste is disposed of to municipal landfills without any prior separation.
Waste disposal is done by the organizations that also collect the waste.
Waste management (%) can be summarized as follows (SEEE, 2010):




Composted less than 1%
Recycled 10%
Deposit in controlled landfills: 30 %
Deposit in open dumps: 59 %
117
The following solid waste management infrastructure exists (SEEE, 2010)





Controlled landfills: 12
Controlled landfills under construction: 3
Rehabilitated or closed dumps: 15
Open dumps that are operational: over 300
Programmed landfills for the period 2010-2020: 50
Disposal
The engineering of a modern landfill is a complex process, typically involving lining and
capping individual "cells" or compartments into which waste is compacted and covered to
prevent the escape of polluting liquid or gases. In newer landfill sites, systems are installed
to capture and remove the gases and liquids produced by the decomposition of organic
waste.
The open waste dumpsites fail to meet the following basic environmental requirements:
-
-
a liner system at the base and sides of the landfill, which prevents migration of
leachate or gas to the surrounding soil.
a leachate collection and treatment system
a gas collection system which extracts gas, for treatment or use for energy recovery.
As a consequence, waste can self ignite resulting at a fire on the landfill, which can
be extremely difficult to control. This is particularly disturbing for residents living
within the vicinity of such landfills.
a final cover system at the top of the landfill which enhances surface drainage,
prevents water infiltration and supports surface vegetation.
a surface water drainage system which collects and removes all surface runoff from
the landfill site.
an environmental monitoring system, under which air, surface water, soil-gas and
ground water samples are periodically collected and analysed.
no proper fencing to prevent farm animals, such as cattle and sheep, from accessing
the landfills. Animals feeding on landfills are potential carriers of microorganisms
that can cause different diseases.
The open waste dumpsites do also not meet basic operational standards. As such, at most of
the sites, wastes are not timely and regularly compacted, covered nor wetted to prevent
self-ignition of decayed materials. As a result, at most big sites, spontaneous lowtemperature combustion of wastes occurs, emitting extremely harmful substances including
dioxins and furans, into the air. These persistent organic pollutants degrade only slowly in
the environment and are transported long distances by the atmospheric flows.
Some disused mining sites (surface quarries) are used for solid waste disposal, as they are
already partly engineered and often have an impermeable underground, which reduces the
risks of leachate contaminating the ground water. However, existing practice should be
improved and aftercare should be guaranteed.
118
It is acknowledged that poorly managed dumpsites can have a significant negative impact
on the environment and on the health of the population, and the authorities have in recent
years undertaken significant efforts to reduce the number of wild dumpsites and to replace
them with engineered landfills. Poorly managed sites result in polluted ground (through
leachate) or surface waters (through runoff) and uncontrolled landfill gas generation.
Without proper control, landfills can be a source of nuisance to neighbours as a result of, for
example, odours, flies, litter, and noise in the surrounding area, fire or explosion.
There are other problems with landfilling which cannot be avoided by good site
management and control. For example, the capacity of controlled landfills sites remains very
low and a significant effort should be made to establish new, engineered landfills and to
close existing dumpsites.
An acute problem is disposal of untreated medical wastes (including infectious wastes) at
the municipal landfills, making them not only the source of environmental pollution but also
a possible source of proliferation of infectious diseases.
Incineration
Morocco does not have household waste incinerators. The waste has high water content,
due to the water content of the food waste and the relatively small amounts of paper and
other dry materials, which makes it less efficient to incinerate with energy recovery.
Recycling
Recycling recovers materials, by preventing them from being disposed of, and makes them
into new goods. This can involve turning the old material into a new version of the same
thing, or materials can be recycled into something completely different. For example, used
glass bottles can be recycled into new bottles, or they can be recycled into something
different, such materials used in road construction.
Recycling is one of the tools available to us to help use resources better and reduce the
environmental impacts associated with disposing of rubbish.
The benefits of recycling:
 Reduced demand for raw materials by extending their life and maximising the value
extracted from them.
 Saving energy.
 Reduction of emissions to air and water, in the production process.
Waste segregation is not yet organized in Morocco. Significant investment is needed to
promote the segregation, collection and use of reusable and recyclable materials. This will
require establishing ‘bring centres’ or dedicated collection systems for recyclables. It will
also require people to adopt the practice of segregating waste in their homes into
recyclables and residual waste for final disposal.
119
There is an informal recycling sector in Morocco. Valuable waste items are recovered by
waste pickers before collection or at the landfill sites. The World Bank estimated that in
2008, that about 3500 waste-pickers, of which 10% were children, were living on and
around the 300 uncontrolled dumpsites, and open dumpsites. The informal sector is not
being regulated and was not recognised or supported by the authorities. Meanwhile, with
World Bank support, waste pickers inclusion initiatives are being taken in Tangier,
Casablanca Rabat and Agadir.
The waste streams which are mostly recycled are: paper, metals, plastics and glass.
The quantity of waste recycled reaches approximately 305100 tones/year, which represents
30 % of the recyclable waste and 10 % of the total amount of waste (SWEEP-NET, 2010)
Morocco had established since the 1960s around ten composting facilities. However, all
these facilities have been shut down, due to technical and economic constraints, such ill
management, and lack of funds to bear the high investment and operational costs, lack of
marketing and of a market. The latter can be partially explained by the insufficient quality of
the compost. (SWEEP-NET, 2010)
5.3.3 Baseline scenario waste treatment
The baseline scenario describes what will happen if average waste generation grows in line
with GDP and if total waste generation grows in line with demography, as described above,
and if the actual waste treatment options remain unchanged.
This approach takes into account the consideration that with growing GDP, waste
generation per capita is likely to increase (e.g. through the increase in packaging used).
Table 5-5 Baseline scenario for waste treatment
5.3.4 Targets
120
A waste prevention policy was only recently introduced at EU level and in most of its
member States. No quantitative results on this policy can yet be observed on quantities of
waste generated. As a result, the assessment does not take into account reductions in
quantity of waste generated for the ENPI countries. The target for waste generation is
therefore equal to the baseline. For this reason benefits like reduction of resource depletion
will not be tackled directly but within the frame of recycling. Table 5-6 through Table 5-11
below describe the baseline and likely future composition of waste by material through to
2020. For the future municipal waste composition Bulgaria is taken as a model.
When assuming a shift in the composition of the generated municipal waste between now
and 2030, in line with shifts in lifestyle, the future generation of different waste fractions
can be calculated.
The composition of MSW (%) is as follows (SWEEP-NET, 2010):






Organic: 65%
Paper/Cardboard: 8%
Plastic: 10%
Glass: 2%
Metal: 1%
Other: 14%
Table 5-6 provides an overview of the baseline shift in waste composition.
Table 5-6 Baseline shift in waste composition
Organic waste
Plastics
Paper/cardboard
Metals
Glass
Other
Total
actual composition (%)
65
10
8
1
2
14
100
future composition 2030 (%)
44
13
16
5
9
13
100
Source: Author’s Estimation
Table 5-7 provides an overview of the baseline for the municipal waste fractions generated
Table 5-7 Baseline municipal waste fractions generation
%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Organic
65.0
63.9
62.7
61.6
60.5
59.5
plastic
10.0
10.1
10.2
10.4
10.5
10.6
paper
8.0
8.3
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.4
121
metals
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.2
1.3
1.4
glass
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.6
2.8
other
14.0
14.0
13.9
13.9
13.8
13.8
%
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Organic
58.4
57.4
56.4
55.4
54.4
53.5
52.5
plastic
10.7
10.9
11.0
11.1
11.3
11.4
11.5
paper
9.7
10.0
10.3
10.6
11.0
11.3
11.7
metals
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
2.1
2.2
2.4
glass
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.7
4.0
4.2
4.5
other
13.7
13.7
13.6
13.6
13.5
13.5
13.4
Table 5-8 provides an overview of the baseline for municipal waste composition.
Table 5-8 Baseline municipal waste composition
tonnes/year
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Total
6,500,000
6,696,873
6,899,709
7,108,689
7,323,999
7,545,829
7,774,379
8,009,851
8,252,455
8,502,407
8,759,929
9,025,252
9,298,610
organic
plastic
paper
4,225,000 650,000
520,000
4,276,443 677,722
552,898
4,328,512 706,625
587,878
4,381,215 736,762
625,071
4,434,560 768,184
664,616
4,488,555 800,946
706,664
4,543,207 835,105
751,372
4,598,524 870,721
798,908
4,654,515 907,856
849,452
4,711,188 946,575
903,193
4,768,550 986,945
960,334
4,826,611 1,029,037 1,021,091
4,885,379 1,072,924 1,085,691
metals
65,000
72,052
79,868
88,533
98,137
108,784
120,585
133,667
148,168
164,242
182,060
201,811
223,704
glass
130,000
143,415
158,214
174,540
192,550
212,419
234,339
258,520
285,197
314,626
347,093
382,909
422,421
other
910,000
934,409
959,473
985,210
1,011,637
1,038,772
1,066,636
1,095,247
1,124,625
1,154,791
1,185,767
1,217,573
1,250,233
Targets are defined as follows:




100% reduction in illegal dumping / disposal to landfills with no environmental control
50% recycling of all generated glass, paper, plastic, metals in municipal waste
70% recycling of construction and demolition waste
65% of the quantity of biodegradable waste generated in 2010 diverted from landfills
The horizon of reaching these ambitious targets is set at 2030. The calculated results will
show the progress reached in 2020, on which the benefits are calculated.
There are two kinds of EU targets:
 The recycling targets really look at a target year (2020 for the European Union) and
request that 50% of a certain waste material generated in the target year is recycled
in this target year.
 The EU landfill diversion target is much more permissive. In the EU the total amount
of biodegradable waste landfilled in the years 2006, 2009, 2016 (or 2010, 2013,
2020) may not be above 65%, 50%, and 35% of the total amount of biodegradable
122
waste generated in 1995. This philosophy is respected and in the proposed target it
is proposed that the amounts landfilled in ENPI countries in 2030 will not be more
than 35% of the amount of biodegradable waste generated in 2010. Of course, just
as in the EU target, an increase in total waste generation is not taken into account,
as the target refers to an absolute, ‘historic’ value and not to a relative percentage.
The horizon of reaching these ambitious targets is set at 2030. The calculated results will
show the progress reached in 2020, on which the benefits are calculated.
Table 5-9 Target values in quantitative data for 2030
Environmental improvements to improving municipal waste treatment in Morocco:


The amount of waste not being illegally dumped or treated in a substandard way, but
being landfilled, incinerated, composted or recycled.
the amount of waste not being landfilled but composted or recycled
A scenario is developed in which the targets have been reached in 2030, and in which the
appropriate distance to target has been bridged in 2020.
Table 5-10 Minimal percentages for different waste treatment options in a scenario in which
target values for 2030 have been reached
123
If in 2030 60% of the generated waste would be landfilled, 22 % would be recycled and 18%
would be composted, the targets will have been reached. The target for composting is the
target for landfill diversion of biodegradable waste minus the target for recycling of
(biodegradable) paper.
Assuming a linear progression to these targets in 2020 following waste treatment options
would have to be reached:
Figure 2 Progression towards 2030 targets
Table 5-11 Minimal percentages for different waste treatment options in 2020 if targets would be
met in 2030
13.8
59.4
0.0
16.5
10.3
% collected waste dumped in uncontrolled dumpsites in 2020
% landfilled in controlled landfills in 2020
% incinerated in 2020
% recycled in 2020
% composted in 2020
Environmental improvements are calculated in Table 5-12.
124
Table 5-12 Environmental improvements in waste management in 2020
5.3.6 Benefit assessment
A qualitative assessment of the benefits of the improvement of collection, disposal and
recovery, is included at the end of this chapter.
The number of employees needed for shifted waste treatment options is assessed as
follows: (based on the author’s assumptions):
-
-
An average landfill with a capacity up to 1,000,000 tonnes employs 1 chief, 4 porters, 1
compactor driver, 1 bulldozer driver, 1 excavator driver, 1 driver, 1 pump operator, 1
maintenance technician, 1 weighing pond operator = 12 jobs
The number of employees for a straightforward windrow composting plant of 20,000
tonnes/year = 5 jobs
Job potential in the recycling industry is very diverse, and an average is not estimated. A
conservative assumption is that it will not require fewer employees to recycle than to
landfill.
When applying these assumptions on the amounts of waste treated in a way diverging from
the baseline scenario, following amounts of job creation can be assessed, as shown in Table
5-13.
125
Table 5-13 Assessment of job creation in waste treatment in 2020 when evolving towards target
values in 2030
Source: Author’s Calculation and Estimation
5.4
Methane emissions
5.4.1 Introduction to benefits of landfill gas capture
When biodegradable waste is landfilled or dumped, anaerobic conditions may be generated
in which it starts to decompose by bacterial activity, generating among other methane and
CO2 emissions. These greenhouse gasses contribute to the global warming. Socio-economic
benefits are to be found in reduced global warming, reduced environmental and nuisance
impact and use of the landfill gas as an energy resource. Methane is 21 times stronger as a
greenhouse gas than CO2. Therefore harvesting methane and releasing it as CO2, by flaring,
by stabilising waste before landfilling, or by gaining energy from landfill gas, can be a strong
measure for global warming remediation. Landfilling of waste contributes ~30-35 Tg
126
methane annually to the world's total CH4 emission of ~550 Tg/yr (Matthews and Themelis
2007).
The landfill gas emissions in the baseline scenario and in the target compliant scenario in
2020 are derived from an assessment of the total amount of waste landfilled, dumped or
not collected. The target assumes that 20% of all landfills are equipped with landfill gas
collection systems. The difference between both shows the amount of landfill gas emissions
that supplementary can be avoided. The societal benefits can be expressed in the marked
values of avoided CO2eq.
Definition of parameter
This parameter includes methane emissions from landfills, split up over released and
captured. Captured landfill gas can be measured or the capacity of the capture installations
can be assessed. Released landfill gas has to be assessed from the quantity of waste being
landfilled, using general calculation rules.
5.4.2 The state of the environment
Approximately 114.3 Gg Eq. CO2 of methane, of which 112.34 from waste and 1.96 from
domestic waste water are emitted each year, but there were no facilities in Morocco to
capture the gas. Only recently, biogas collection and flaring systems have been installed in
some landfills ( Salé, Fes).
On April 22, 2010, during the celebration of Earth Day's 40th anniversary, it was announced
that Morocco wants to start using the methane gas from landfills to generate clean energy
5.4.3 Baseline scenario waste treatment
The baseline scenario for waste collection and for waste treatment (landfilling) is used.
The sum is made of all waste that, according to this baseline scenario’s is either:
 Not collected and presumed illegally dumped, buried or combusted
 Collected and dumped in non-controlled dumpsites
 Collected and landfilled in controlled landfills
The amount of waste treated in these three ways is summed up.
The model of the EPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) LANDGEM35 is used
to assess the total emissions of landfill gas and of methane from a standardised landfill of
1,000,000 tonnes with a yearly input op 50,000 tonnes and a lifetime of 20 years. This can
be a proxy for overall landfill emissions. (Figure 3)
35
Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM) Version 3.02 on
http://www.epa.gov/ttn/catc/products.html#software
127
Figure 3 Total landfill emissions
Source : EPA Landfill Gas Emissions Model (LandGEM) Version 3.02
Total methane emissions are assessed at 170,164,940 m³ of methane emissions over the
whole lifespan of the landfill plus its after-phase. This can be translated in a ratio of 170
m³/tonne landfilled MSW.
The same ratio is used for dumpsites, although the methano-genesic processes may be
different due to different environment conditions and the effect of frequent fire incidents.
The methane generation in the baseline scenario is derived from the amounts of waste
being not collected / dumped / landfilled. From this quantity the already collected methane
is subtracted, the remainder is the figure for methane emissions through waste disposal.
Table 5-14 Methane emissions in the baseline scenario in m³
5.4.4 Targets
The same targets for waste treatment are applied as in previous sub-sections.
128
We have assumed that 20% of all landfill gas being generated on sanitary landfills will be
captured and either reused of flared in 2020.
The methane generation in the target compliant scenario is derived from the amounts of
waste being not collected / dumped / landfilled. From this quantity the already collected
methane is subtracted, the remainder is the figure for methane emissions through waste
disposal (see above)
The environmental improvement is the amount of methane emitted in the baseline scenario
minus the amount of methane emitted in the target compliant scenario.
Table 5-15 Methane emissions in the target compliant scenario in 2020
5.4.6 Socio-economic benefits assessment
Qualitative assessment
The social and economic benefits are linked with the value of avoided CO2 equivalent
emissions and the effect of global warming. Global warming may be accompanied by more
extreme weather events (high intensity precipitation events, high temperature events,
extended periods of drought), sea level rise, increased coastal erosion, flooding, increased
incidences of disease and pressure to adapt to non-carbon based fuels. Addressing methane
emissions in Morocco will only contribute a small amount to the reduction in the severity of
global warming effects. Consequently, while we consider the qualitative benefits below,
these must be understood as accruing to a region much larger than Morocco, and may or
may not actually be encountered in Moroccco.
Social
129
Fewer floods will reduce the health and community impacts of these damaging events. Less
extreme summer temperatures will reduce the health care burden on the community,
particularly with regard to children and the elderly, as well as potentially lowering
atmospheric pollution levels and slowing the spread of disease.
Economic
A range of economic benefits can be expected. Reduced flooding will lower insurance
payouts. Lower summer temperatures will reduce the health care costs of providing care for
vulnerable populations. Less sea level rise will reduce the costs of protecting coastal
communities with flood defences and beach nourishment.
Environmental
A whole range of physical and biological benefits can be expected, including reduced
pressure on endangered species, reduced and slower changes in ecosystems, and fewer
departures from normal hydrological conditions.
Health
Reduced incidences of high heat index days will reduce heat-related illness and mortality.
Reduced temperatures in summer may reduce atmospheric pollution, reducing pollutionrelated illness and mortality. Fewer and less severe floods may reduce loss of life as well as
the spread of disease through contaminated water and damage sanitation networks.
Quantitative and monetary assessment
The social and economic benefits are linked with the value of avoided CO2 eq. emissions and
the effect of global warming. The carbon values used is this study have a range of 39 €/t to
56 €/t for 2020. Methane has a global warming potential (GWP) of 25 for 100 years (Forster,
P. et al, 2007), which means that one kg methane has the same global warming effect of 25
kg CO2. The density of methane is 0.68 kg/m³.
An avoided methane emission of 478,850,238 m³ corresponds thus to a benefit between
317,5 million € and 455,9 million €.
5.5
Qualitative assessment of improved collection, disposal and increased
recycling
The benefits of a sound waste management system expand beyond keeping the day-to-day
living environment clean and tidy. Waste management generates health, social,
environmental and economic benefits, related to improved environmental (air, groundwater
and surface water) quality, a more attractive environment and landscape, safeguarding the
tourism potential, reduced CO2 emissions and climate change, energy production,
availability of secondary raw materials from the recycling industry and prevention of
primary resource depletion. A sound waste management system results in social benefits
related to an improved environment to live in, better health and job creation.
130
Key benefits of improved waste management are listed in Table 5-16.
Health benefits
 Health benefits through avoided birth defects and various diseases:
 including cancers, asthma, respiratory diseases, that can be caused by
exposure to hazardous emissions from substandard landfills, open
burning and substandard incineration.
 resulting from ingestion of contaminated water or food.
 Health benefits through avoidance of occupational injuries resulting from
substandard waste collection, transport and treatment.
Environmental benefits  Waste prevention leads to fewer natural resources used. It takes natural
resources to produce waste, and waste is a loss of natural resources.
Waste generation thus contributes to the overall depletion of valuable
natural resources.
 Environmental benefits resulting from avoided pollution: dumpsites are a
significant source of air (due to gasses, dust and bad odour), groundwater
(through leachate) and surface water (through runoff) pollution.
 Substandard landfills and dumpsites emit primarily methane, resulting
from the decomposition of biodegradable waste, a major greenhouse gas
(GHG) of concern for climate change. Sound waste management can
contribute significantly to GHG reduction.
 Recycling reduces the amount of waste that must be deposited in landfills.
 Recycling is far more efficient, in terms of energy consumption, than
producing something out of raw materials. The greenhouse gas benefit of
recycling is a reduction in emissions from the use of fossil-fuel energy in
the extraction and manufacture of products from virgin materials versus
secondary materials. There is a difference in energy/electricity use for the
production of material from virgin inputs (i.e. from extraction of feedstock
to manufacturing) versus recycled inputs (i.e. from collection to
manufacturing).
 Another greenhouse benefit of recycling, relates to the avoided methane
emissions of degrading paper. Composting and diverting other
biodegradable waste from landfills, results in less GHG emissions.
131
Economic benefits
 Wastes choke sewage and irrigation systems, which leads to damage to
infrastructure and the local economy.
 Benefits from availability of secondary raw materials. If waste is not being
properly collected and recycled, waste generation is a loss of resources.
 Recycling saves resources. For example, recycling newsprint, office paper
and mixed paper saves trees; recycling of steel saves irons ore, coal and
limestone.
 Sound waste management, does not only conserves resources, but also
reduces the need for natural resource extraction and reduces thus the
impact of extraction.
 Recycling promotes energy efficiency, which reduces energy costs.
recycling is far more efficient, in terms of energy consumption, than
producing something out of raw materials.
 Trading in emission reductions via the Kyoto mechanisms can make landfill
gas recovery economically viable.
 Development of waste management industry. Private-sector participation,
through local private companies, could be appropriately used to improve
the efficiency of waste management systems.
Social benefits
 Littering and illegal dumping reduce the attractivity of tourist destinations
 Waste management can generate jobs and income. Processing waste for
recycling generates considerably more jobs than landfilling or incinerating
waste.
 Communities living near dumps must bear with dust, litter, odour, insects
and rats, which affects public health and quality of life.
 Noise related to the collection and transport of waste, can also be a public
nuisance.
 Sound waste management, in particular recycling, builds community and
raises the environmental awareness; here citizens get together around the
common cause of better waste management and a cleaner environment.
132
6
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING NATURE RELATED CONDITIONS
6.1
This section
This section will cover the following aspects of nature:
 Level of biodiversity protection
 Deforestation levels
 Level of cropland degradation
6.2
Benefits from improving biodiversity protection
6.2.1 Definitions
The CBD’s widely accepted definition states that “Biological diversity means the variability
among living organisms from all sources including, inter alia, terrestrial, marine and other
aquatic ecosystems and the ecological complexes of which they are part; this includes
diversity within species, between species and of ecosystems”. Thus biodiversity does not
just relate to species, but includes genes and ecosystems. However, in practice, this report
focuses on species and ecosystems.
The parameter measures the share of terrestrial and marine protected areas in relation to
land and sea area. The proportion of land designated as protected areas is used here as
indication of how much biodiversity is protected in the country. This indicator is widely used
and is for example included in the CBD set of biodiversity indicators36 and the SEBI set used
in the EU37. This is because protected areas are a key instrument used to conserve
biodiversity and reasonably comprehensive and standardised data exist for most countries
on national protected area designations, which have been compiled in a central World
Database of Protected Areas (WDPA)38.
It should be noted though that, even if an area is formally protected, this does not imply
that the level of protection/management is sufficient to adequately preserve biodiversity.
Therefore insights on the quality of protected areas will also be needed in order for the
parameter to be a meaningful measure.
Although IBAs are only identified on the basis of bird data, they often provide wider
biodiversity benefits and can thus also be considered as an indicator for the level of
biodiversity protection.
36 CBD biodiversity indicators
37 http://biodiversity-chm.eea.europa.eu/information/fol168004
38 http://protectedplanet.net
133
-
-
Protected areas: A clearly defined geographical space, recognised, dedicated and
managed, through legal or other effective means, to achieve the long-term
conservation of nature with associated ecosystem services and cultural values
(Dudley, 2008).
Important Bird Areas (IBAs): IBAs are key sites for bird conservation – that have been
identified by national experts according to standardised criteria developed by
BirdLife International39. They do one (or more) of three things: hold significant
numbers of one or more globally threatened species; are one of a set of sites that
together hold a suite of restricted-range species or biome-restricted species; have
exceptionally large numbers of migratory or congregatory species. Identification as
an IBA does not give any protection in itself, but many are, or become protected
areas.
6.2.2 Current status of biodiversity
Overview
Morocco is a country with a huge and varied natural heritage and a precious biological
diversity. It houses the second greatest concentration of terrestrial biodiversity in the
Mediterranean basin and the greatest concentration of marine biodiversity. Morocco has a
species diversity of more than 31,000 species of which about 11% are endemic.
The country has a wealth of different landscapes ranging from forest to mountains, lush
farmland and semi arid areas and desert. The forest, 3% of which is protected, constitutes
the main element of the ecological wealth of the country. It shelters two thirds of plants and
one third of animal species.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and tourism represent the basis of Morocco’s economic and
social policy. The country is thus highly dependent on its natural resources and biodiversity,
which it aims to preserve and to exploit it in a sustainable manner.
However, all ecosystems are under pressure and most are moderately-to-severely
degraded. The increase of human population, urbanization, inadequate agriculture
practices, overfishing, transport, mass tourism, exotic species, and fires are threatening the
country’s biodiversity.40 These social and economic developments result in increasing
desertification, in a reduction of forests, of wetlands and of natural ecosystems in general,
and in the rapid extinction of numerous plant and animal species. Plant species, in
particular, constitute, more than 80% of the Moroccan threatened species. (USAID, 2008)
39 http://www.birdlife.org/action/science/sites/index.html
40 Third National Report on the implementation of the Convention on Biological Diversity and National
Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans NBSAP
134
Examples of measures taken to achieve the CBD 2010 Target41:







Establishment of protected areas
Identification of 160 Sites of Biological and Ecological Interest (SIBE), some of which have
been designated as protected areas.
Designation of 24 Ramsar sites.
Creation of seed and gene banks,
Establishment of fishing restrictions
Implementation of reforestation plans
Measures to restrain the introduction of alien species such as monitoring at entry
points, and to manage invasive species such as monitoring the movements of the
species inside the country (e.g. the grasshopper).
Protected areas
Morocco has a small number of old, long established national parks and an active program
for the creation of new protected areas.
Four national parks were created between 1942 and 1991. Management plans have been
prepared for these national/natural parks.
Under 1996 Protected Areas Master Plan, the national network of protected areas is being
expanded, with the creation of 4 new national parks in 2004. The network was further
extended in 2006 and 2008, increasing the number of national parks to ten.
All ten protected areas are managed by the Forestry Service (Haut Commissariat aux Eaux
Forêts et à la Lutte contre la Désertification or HCEFLCD).
Table 6 1 provides an overview of the 10 national parks.
41
In April 2002, the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity committed themselves to achieve by2010 a significant
reduction of the current rate of biodiversity loss at the global, regional and national level as a contribution to poverty
alleviation and to the benefit of all life on Earth.
135
Table 6-1 Overview of national parks
Protected Area
Date designated
Total area
(km2)
2006
Khnéfisse
185,000
2008
Khénifra
Eastern High
Atlas
Ifrane
Souss-Massa
2004
2004, extended in
2008
1991
Talassametane
2004
2004
Al Hoceima
55,252
124,850
33,800
58,950
48,460
1994
Iriqui
Tazekka
93,500
1950, extended in
2004
Toubkal
1942
13,737
38,000
Eco-soc values
Ramsar site since 1980, Very High values. the first
Saharan national park
Terrestrial, marines, lagoons . Ecotourism potentialities
Very high values. Local traditions: folklore, craftsmen.
Ecotourism potentialities
Very high. Different Berber tribes with different cultures.
Ecotourism potentialities.
Very high. Different Berber tribes with different cultures.
Ecotourism potentialities.
High value. National and international visitors and
scientists. Ecotourism potentialities
High value, Ancestral traditions (moussems)
Very high values. Presence of about 12,000 users and
association of traditional fishers
Presence of desert and wet zones; High value.
Ecotourism potentialities
Very high values. Friouatou Grotto and Mjbar groove
visited by 1000 of national and international
visitors/year. Ecotourism potentialities.
Highest mountain in Africa, High ecotourism potentiality
values
Three national parks have marine areas within their boundaries. Generally, marine areas are
poorly represented in the protected areas network. Table 6-2 provides an overview of the
marine protected areas.
Table 6-2 Overview of marine protected areas
MPA site name
Designation
IUCN
category
Date
designated
2004
1986
1986
1962
1978
1962
Al Hoceima
National Park
Bokkoyas
Biological Reserve
unset
Bokkoyas
Marine Reserve
unset
Ile de Skhirate
Permanent Hunting Reserve
unset
Ile d’Essaouira
Reserve
unset
Khnéfisse
/Puerto Biological Reserve
Ia
Cansado
Merja Zerga
Biological Reserve
IV
1978
Oualidia lagoon
Hunting Reserve
unset
Sidi Boughaba
Biological Reserve
IV
1951
Sidi Boughaba
Permanent Hunting Reserve
unset
1946
Souss-Massa
National Park
V
1991
Source: http://www.mpaglobal.org, a database of the world’s Marine Protected Areas
As part of the preparation of the 1996 Protected Areas Master Plan, an additional 160 Sites
of Biological and Ecological Interest (SIBE) were identified on the basis of a country-wide
136
ecosystems assessment. The criteria to identify the SIBE included a criterion for
representativeness of the natural ecosystems of the country. This network of SIBEs has been
prioritized into 3 groups: Priority 1 – 48 SIBEs; Priority 2 – 50 SIBEs; and priority 3 – 62 SIBEs.
The Master Plan calls for the SIBEs to be progressively converted into legally protected
areas. A dozen of them are targeted to become national parks.
Morocco also has three Biosphere Reserves. They are:



The Argon Forest Biosphere Reserve (RBA) with an area of 2.5 million hectares in the
South-West, was created in 1998;
The Southern Morocco Oases Biosphere Reserve (RBOSM) was created in 2000 and
covers 7,200,000 ha.
The Mediterranean Intercontinental Biosphere Reserve (RBIM) covers nearly 1,000,000
ha and is divided roughly equally between Morocco and Spain. The Moroccan portion is
located around the Tingitana Peninsula (Provinces of Chefchaouen, Tétouan, Fnideq,
Fahs Anjra and Larache).
6.2.3 Effectiveness of the management of protected areas
The establishment of protected areas and the elaboration of planning and management
strategies, are key elements of the policy that aims to reconcile biodiversity conservation, a
rational exploitation of the natural resources and the legitimate interests of traditional
users.
However, the management effectiveness of the protected areas and the protection of the
national biological richness of the country should be significantly strengthened. The Forestry
Service (Haut Commissariat aux Eaux Forêts et à la Lutte contre la Désertification or
HCEFLCD) has apparently not enough resources to develop and implement management
plans for all the protected areas.
All, or nearly all, of the protected areas in Morocco have people living in them – Al Hoceima
NP has 12,000 people living inside its boundaries. These people have farms, cultivate fields
and raise sheep, goats and cattle. They get their firewood from the surrounding forest
(USAID, 2008). The Moroccan government is aware of the direct connection between
poverty alleviation, rural development and the preservation of natural resources. The
example from the Souss Massa Drâa region described in
Table 6 3, illustrates this connection.
137
Table 6-3 Poverty and biodiversity loss in the Souss Massa Drâa region
The Souss massa Drâa region (SMD) is situated in central Morocco. It covers an area of about 70,880 km²
(about 9.9 % of Morocco’s total area). The region is dominated by arid and semi-arid climatic conditions with
a decreasing humidity gradient from north to south.
The SMD region is Morocco’s most important region for agriculture production, despite the harsh
environmental conditions, and provides livelihoods for about 3.5 million people. Agricultural activity is
particularly concentrated in the watersheds of Souss-massa and Draa while the inland plains are suffering
increased risks of desertification and land degradation problems.
The SMD region produces an average of 3.5 % of the national cereal production share and significantly
contributes to the total national production of fruits (53 % of national exportations) and vegetables (83 % of
the tomato exportation). Furthermore, the SMD region is characterized by its unique “Produits de terroir”
such as saffron, honey, figs etc. The region is also one of the most important regions for livestock activities in
Morocco.
Natural forests represent 13% of national forestation coverage. Two thirds of the forests are Argan tree
(Argania spinosa). This is an endemic species of Morocco that grows in a harsh environment, surviving heat,
drought and poor soils. The Argan tree is particularly important for both the ecosystem and the livelihoods.
The region also hosts a national park of Souss-Massa and Aglou, which covers a variety of habitats and
breeding sites for species of global importance.
Threats to the resource base in the SMD region: increased drought and desertification problems in the last
two decades, caused by:

climate variability

increased human pressure through the removal of vegetation, extensive extraction of natural resources,
over-farming and over-grazing.
The Argan tree for example, is at high degradation risk, with an estimated average of 600 ha of Argan are lost
each year to degraded land.
Unsustainable agricultural practices, limited market opportunities and private investments
have contributed to further degradation of the resource base and exacerbated the linkages between poverty
and environmental degradation and biodiversity loss in this particular case.
Policies should aim to conserve habitats and key species while providing economic opportunities by fostering
local entrepreneurship (based on high-quality local products) and by maximising the benefits to local
communities/businesses and user groups in ways that create incentives for sustainable use.
Measures and benefits could include:

reduced pressure on the ecosystems and their services (water resources, biodiversity including habitats
for wild species, etc) through the promotion of sustainable agricultural production systems

economic benefits, through the conservation of key varieties (“produits de terroir”) such as saffron,
honey, figs etc. which significantly contribute to the local livelihoods in the region and the national
economy at large. For example better pollination through floral maintenance

better water quality: through reduced deforestation of PAs through agreements with local farming
communities, reduction in use of pesticides due to integrated crop management,

improved water availability: through riparian strips and maintenance of precipitation and micro-climate
through forest cover,

climate change benefits: enhanced carbon sequestration through increased on-farm forest cover and
rehabilitation of degraded (soil erosion and desertification)land

overall soil fertility maintenance and erosion control through reforestation on degraded lands and soil
management.
Source: GEF Trust Fund, 2009
138
6.2.4 Threats and constraints42
Terrestrial biodiversity
The most important threats to terrestrial ecosystems, in approximate descending order of
their importance, are presented in Table 6-4.
Table 6-4 Key threats to terrestrial ecosystems
Threat
Overgrazing
Description
Overgrazing represents the greatest threat to Morocco’s forests and the
most critical challenge threatening the health and sustainability of lands.
Nearly all state-owned and much communally owned forest and rangelands
are very badly overgrazed. Government estimates indicate that current
grazing levels in Morocco are four times greater than the land’s carrying
capacity.
In many areas, overgrazing eliminates nearly all forest
regeneration, and reduces vegetative ground cover in general, leading to soil
erosion, soil compaction, and degradation of watersheds. As such,
overgrazing results in decreased infiltration and evapotranspiration,
increased volume and velocity of runoff, increased flooding, increased soil
loss and increased sedimentation in man-made reservoirs, streams, lakes and
marine ecosystems. It is estimated that dams loose annually 50 million m³ of
stocking capacity due to sedimentation, which does poses a serious threat to
Morocco’s water security, which is already exacerbated by desertification
processes. If grazing continues at this intensity, natural resource
management goals of the Government of Morocco, including water quality
regulation, rural economic development, expansion of ecotourism and
agricultural advancement, will be threatened as forests are lost.
Root causes include open and free access to state-owned forests and
rangelands: no one pays for using them and no one invests in their
management.
Unregulated
The harvest of major commercial wood products is relatively well regulated,
overexploitation of but firewood and many non-timber products are very seriously and illegally
firewood and non- over-exploited.
timber products
For example, virtually all cork oak acorns and argon fruit are harvested on
most sites, leaving almost nothing for regeneration. Other products that are
over-exploited are mushrooms, truffles and carob pods.
Root causes include:

open access to forests, which are a major source of revenues for local
community resource users. This situation is aggravated by the absence of
regulations that might enable participatory approaches to forest
management.

poverty and lack of economic alternatives: many of the mountainous
forested area have very high levels of poverty. Agriculture on the
mountain slopes is generally a marginal activity.

the impossibility of enforcing regulations over enormous areas.
42
Largely based on USAID, 2008
139
Table 6-4 Key threats to terrestrial ecosystems
Threat
Climate change
Description
Temperatures are increasing and rainfall is decreasing putting ecosystems
and species under severe stress. These changes have sometimes resulted in
the outright mortality of the dominant species of some forest ecosystems
(e.g. Atlas cedar).
Other
direct  Conversion of forests to agricultural uses: In the regions where the forest
threats/pressures
domain is not yet delimited (e.g. the northern regions), clearing of forest
land for agriculture continues to be a problem.

Fragmentation: this conversion over the past centuries is also the main
cause of fragmentation of forest areas (such that they can support only a
smaller number of species).

Wildfires: wildfire ravages an average area of 3,600 ha per year. The
majority of these wildfires are located in the northern regions of the
country. Most forest types are very negatively impacted and do not
regenerate well after fire. Wildfires are likely to become more frequent
and more severe as climate change progresses.

Urbanization: rapid urbanization combined with poor planning, and high
returns on investment in the construction industry led to extremely high
rates of expansion of the “built environment”. Forests are converted to
urban areas in the same way the agricultural and pasture lands are
converted.
Constraints to conservation of terrestrial biodiversity include:



Land tenure rights: the land tenure system provides very little incentive for local people
to conserve the forest. Commercial products from organized timber sales are almost
always harvested by relatively wealthy urban elite. Receipts from timber sales and other
biodiversity products go to local government (the communes). Those who live in or near
the forest are systematically excluded from the direct financial benefits from forest
products. Receiving no legal monetary benefits from the forest, individuals exploit the
forest illegally whenever they think they can get away with it.
Resource access rights: nearly all forest lands are used as grazing lands. Nearly all forest
lands, and much of the steppes, are state-owned. All of the livestock that use these
lands are privately owned. Most of the livestock are owned by absentee owners. Access
to most grazing lands is de facto open access, negating any possibility of management.
Forest and/or range management can only be effective if local populations and livestock
owners are involved, but participatory management approaches are very poorly
developed.
Other constraints include a sectoral approach focusing on management for wood
products, legal/policy constraints, insufficient institutional capacities, low political
commitment and the lack of a Red List of endangered species.
140
Marine, coastal and freshwater biodiversity
Threats include:





Overfishing/overharvesting of marine and coastal biodiversity is the greatest and most
generalized threat.
Drainage, development, and urbanization are major threats to wetlands and coastal
ecosystems.
Fragmentation of habitats by dam construction is a major threat to river and wetland
ecosystems.
Pollution threatens many aquatic ecosystems and coastal marine ecosystems.
Other threats include invasive exotic species, climate change, sedimentation, and
poaching.
Constraints to conservation include:





Little involvement of coastal fishermen in the management of the coastal fisheries
resource. There has been very little development of participatory management of
marine and aquatic resources.
Most coastal fisheries and freshwater aquatic ecosystems are quasi open access
resources. This is especially true for the tidal zone fisheries. The state tries to regulate
use, but lacks the means.
Law enforcement tends to favour the wealthy and artisanal fishermen are poorly
organized, poorly informed and poorly represented in key fora.
Industrial fishing boats commonly enter into coastal waters legally reserved for artisanal
fishermen.
A major shortage of scientific expertise and information for marine ecosystems, ecology,
biology, restoration.
The CBD Strategic Plan for 2011-2020 includes a target for protected areas that at least 17%
of terrestrial and inland water, and 10% of coastal and marine areas (if applicable), are
conserved through effective management practices. This is the CBD target for global PA
coverage to which the ENP countries have signed up to in Nagoya 2010. This is a common
target that is being applied for all ENPI countries for which the benefits have been analysed
under the project.
Given the biodiversity importance and the potential for protected area coverage, the CBD
target seems to be appropriate for Morocco.
Currently, only approximately 1.5 % of the total territory of the country is designated as
protected area, which proves to be inadequate to maintain or improve upon the biodiversity
base. Meeting the CBD target would allow maintaining or improving upon the biodiversity
base and should thus result in significant environmental improvements.
141
It should be noted though that percentage of a country designated as protected areas does
not provide a reliable indication of the adequacy of the ecological coherence of the
protected areas as a network, the level or effectiveness of protection given to biodiversity
within protected areas, or the degree to which positive management measures are
undertaken within them.
For the extension of the protected land area coverage to constitute a real environmental
improvement, measures to address the threats and constraints identified above.
6.2.6 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of improving biodiversity protection
The rich biodiversity of Morocco presents strategic and vital socioeconomic opportunities
for the country. It assures food, raw materials and recreation. Indeed, the national
development strategy is founded on its agricultural, forest and marine biodiversity
resources.
To reap the benefits while preserving the biodiversity, the natural resources should be
exploited and the PAs should be managed in a sustainable manner. Also, the present system
of state-controlled commercial harvest of forest and biodiversity products from state lands
should be changed. Currently, it provides little or no benefits/revenues for local populations
and creates almost no incentive for communities to conserve their forests. (USAID, 2008)
An overview of potential key benefits from increased protected area designation and
strengthened management, including of forests, is provided in Table 6-5.
Health
benefits
Protected areas and forests:

Promote health and well-being through their use for recreation and relaxation.
Obtaining evidence for this benefit is obviously likely to be difficult.

help to keep ecosystems intact, which result in health benefits from clean air and
water (please see the assessment of the benefits in the air and water sections of this
report).

provide clean air: forests improve air quality, especially in the summer when air
quality is often compromised, by lowering temperatures, filtering dust, and
absorbing ozone, carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, airborne
ammonia, and heavy metals and by releasing oxygen.

slow down the expansion of vector-borne diseases that thrive in degraded
ecosystems.

give access to medicines: wild plants and animals are extremely important for human
health, given that both many commercially available pharmaceuticals and traditional
medicines are derived from wild plants and animals.
Environmental  PAs in Morocco have a very high level of biodiversity
benefits

Protected areas are essential tools to halt biodiversity loss: they act as refuges for
species, genetic diversity (of wild crop species), and ecological processes that cannot
survive in intensely managed landscapes and seascapes.
Economic

Protected areas provide environmental goods with high economic importance: food
142
benefits



stuffs, freshwater, pharmaceutical raw materials, wood and fibre for trade, fire and
construction. In this way, they contribute to poverty reduction and sustainable
development.
Several species have or could have a direct economic value; utilized as timber,
firewood, food (argon fruit, cork oak acorns, pine nuts, figues de barbarie ,dates, figs,
honey, mushrooms, truffles), forage and animal food or used in medicine (medicinal
plants) and production of essential oils (rosemary, Artemisia, Acacia mollisima
flowers, etc).
Food security and provision:
o Protected areas maintain the genetic diversity of wild crop species, which are
important sources of new, desirable genetic traits for cultivated crops, such
as disease and pest resistance. If this genetic diversity would be lost, the
potential for modern crops to adapt to, or be bred for, changing conditions
would be reduced – which would directly threaten long-term food security.
o Provision of wild food
o Marine and freshwater protected areas conserve and rebuild fish stocks.
Water purification and freshwater supply:
o Natural wetlands and forests play a central role in maintaining clean freshwater
supplies. Wetlands absorb rainfall and slowly release it over time, and they are
also highly efficient natural water treatment works (absorbing chemicals, filtering
pollutants and sediments, breaking down suspended solids, and neutralising
harmful bacteria).
o Similarly, water from catchments with well-managed natural forests is almost
always of higher quality, with less sediment and fewer pollutants, than water
from those without. This is because natural forests minimize the risk of
landslides, erosion, and sedimentation, and filter out pollutants such as
pesticides.
As it is much cheaper to conserve forests and wetlands than to build water treatment
plants, protecting such areas provides a cost-effective means of supplying highquality drinking water.

Carbon trading: Economic benefits may arise from carbon trading as increased forest
area could enhance the carbon sink provided by the national forest area. The level of
enhancement will depend on the type, age and additional area of forest conserved.
Large areas of degraded farmlands could be reforested and used as green investment
under the Kyoto Protocol.

Protected areas contribute to the two main responses to climate change through
(Dudley, N., S. Stolton, 2009):
Mitigation
o Storage of carbon: preventing the loss of carbon that is already present in
vegetation and soils. For example, forests inside protection areas loose less
carbon than those outside. Restoration and protection of degraded peat
lands reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
o Capture of carbon dioxide: sequestering further CO2 from the atmosphere in
natural ecosystems. Degraded forests can have less than half the carbon
value of intact forests.

143

Adaptation
o Protecting human communities: maintaining ecosystem integrity, reducing risks
and impacts from extreme events such as:
o Storms: coral reeds, barrier islands, mangroves, dunes and marshes
block storm surges
o droughts and desertification: reducing grazing pressure and maintaining
water sheds and water retention in soil
o floods: providing space for floodwaters to disperse and absorbing
impacts with natural vegetation.
o Landslides: stabilising soil and snow to stop slippage
o and sea-level rise
o Providing basic livelihood needs: maintaining essential ecosystem services that
help people cope with changes in water supplies, fisheries, disease and
agricultural productivity caused by climate change.
Many natural and managed ecosystems can help reduce climate change impacts. But
protected areas have advantages over other approaches to natural ecosystem
management in terms of legal and governance clarity, capacity and effectiveness. In
many cases protection is the only way of keeping carbon locked in, and ecosystem
services running smoothly.

Social benefits
Jobs (paid or voluntary) opportunities and income generation from:
o eco-tourism, including revenue generation from tourism (entrance fees etc.)
and from associated businesses – hotel, catering, recreation (mountain
biking, walking, climbing etc), local guide services, though the potential of
PAs fur sustainable tourism should be further developed.
o Commercial exploitation of the natural resources: forestry, fishing,
agriculture.
Protected areas contribute to:

poverty alleviation (e.g. because they provide food and income earning
opportunities).

Increased public awareness of environmental issues. Large numbers of
schoolchildren have been made aware of the need to protect the environment.

Enhancement of social values: traditional lifestyles, attractive scenic landscapes.
Protected areas provide opportunities for:

building knowledge and education: they provide open-air classrooms for both
students and adults. Various environmental education measures have resulted in an
increase of the number of visitors to the protected parks

research: many breakthroughs in medicine, science and technology have been
achieved through detailed study of natural systems

promoting transboundary cooperation.

community development, through involvement in the management of protected
areas.
Protected areas, biodiversity and natural landscapes are also increasingly recognized as
an important part of a nation’s unique character or value, comparable with valuable
cultural sites.
144
6.2.7 Quantitative and monetary assessment of the benefits of improving biodiversity
protection
With the data available, any quantitative and monetary assessments of the impact of
increases in protected areas on biodiversity itself are not possible within this project. This is
because the benefits are highly dependent on the types of ecosystems that will be given
added protection and their current status and biodiversity importance and threats to them.
6.3
Benefits from reducing deforestation
6.3.1 Introduction
The benefits assessment on this subtheme on deforestation looks at the benefits of avoided
deforestation (where applicable), which have to be seen in the contract of the current forest
cover and benefits, and the trend in loss/gain of forest coverage.
This parameter measures the annual change in the area of forested land. Change is
measured as number of hectares (ha) increase or decrease in forested land and as
percentage increase or decrease in the area of forested land. The overall assessment of
change includes both forest loss due to removal of trees and forest gain due to replanting. It
should be noted that a net zero loss in forest cover (replanting the same area as is
deforested in a given year) may not necessarily lead to no net loss of value to the country,
as the stock and flow of products and services from the lost forest and gained forest are
often different.
Forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle for their ability to absorb carbon
dioxide and store carbon in biomass. While forests serve as a net carbon sink, deforestation
and forest degradation can be a substantial source of greenhouse gas emissions. The issue
of carbon storage (stock) and sequestration (flow) is gaining in global prominence which will
lead to increasing market/payments for avoided carbon emissions from deforestation and
forest degradation. The quantitative and the monetary assessment focuses on these
benefits, i.e. on the value of carbon stored in forest biomass, as this is perceived as a figure
easy to understand and communicate to policy makers/the wider public. The quantitative
assessment focuses on benefits in terms of the quantity of carbon captured by the existing
forest, as well as the potential avoided loss in case of reduced deforestation. As for the
monetary assessment, the value of the benefits related to the carbon captured by existing
forest today and in the future (potential for sequestration) has been estimated using a high
and low € value for carbon, based on recent literature.
It should be kept in mind, however, that the biodiversity value of forests goes well beyond
their capability of storing carbon, and is intrinsically related with to their flora and fauna
and the quality of the habitat status, which could not be taken into account in our
calculations. Forests in fact provide multiple functions, including goods and services such
as timber, food, fodder, medicines, provision of fresh water, soil protection, cultural
heritage values and tourism opportunities – leading to significant environmental, health,
social and economic benefits. Furthermore, forests are also important for the conservation
145
of species, habitats and genetic diversity, which have a value in their own right (‘intrinsic
values’), irrespective of the benefits that they provide to human populations. Qualitative
insights on the broader set of benefits have been noted to complement the analysis when
information was available.
For carbon values, we focus on stock values, and note also the value of avoiding potential
losses – especially in those countries were deforestation is not currently an issue, but where
it will be important to protect and well manage the existing forest in order not to lose its
existing value. Overall, the carbon values are here estimated with a relatively simple
procedure applicable to all countries, therefore it has not been possible to take into account
local specificities and tailored assumptions. The figures provided should therefore be seen
as a general illustration of the potential carbon value of forests, providing an order of
magnitude rather than a precise estimate, and hopefully offering a useful starting point for
future country-tailored analyses.
Forest: Land spanning more than 0.5 hectare with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy
cover of more than 10%, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include
land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. (FAO, 2010)
Deforestation: includes activities such as conversion of forest to agricultural land,
conversion for urbanisation, illegal logging etc. Forest may also be degraded by fire, pests
and storms which can lead to their eventual loss. When considering factors driving
deforestation, the likelihood of these degradation factors increasing/decreasing should also
be considered
6.3.2 Current level of deforestation
Morocco is the most highly forested country in the Maghreb. 7.2% or about 5,131,000 ha of
Morocco is forested of a total land area 71,085,000 ha (incl. the Western Sahara) according
to “Haut Commissariat aux Eaux et Foret et à la Lutte Contre la Desertification (HCEFLD)”.
146
Figure 4 Morocco forest cover map (year 2000)
Source: http://www.fao.org/forestry/country/18314/en/mar/
Forests are made up of 63% deciduous species (holm oak, cork oak, argan, and Saharan
acacias) and 20 percent conifers (cedar, thuya, juniper, pine, Atlas cypress and fir), while the
remaining 17 percent are low formations (scrub and secondary species), often resulting
from forest degradation. (FAO,2003)
Forests designated functions are mostly multiple use (67%) with production at 21% and 12%
for biodiversity conservation (see Table 6-6).
Table 6-6 Forests primary designated functions
Function Production Protection
of soil and
water
Area (%) 21
0
Source:
Conservation Social
Multiple Other
of
services use
biodiversity
12
0
67
0
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Morocco.htm
None or
unknown
0
adapted from (FAO, 2011a)
Planted forests cover nearly 500 000 ha and are expanding at an average annual rate of 8%
a year. In total, between 1990 and 2010, Morocco gained 1.4% of its forest cover or around
71,000 ha. Between 1990 and 2000 Morocco lost 0.06% of their forests (see Table 6-7), but
has since seen forest coverage rise (FAO, 2011).
147
Table 6-7 Trend in total net forest cover
Year
1990
2000
2010
Projection: 2020
Total net forest cover (ha)
5,059,500
5,029,500
5,131,000
5,167,128
Source: http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i2000e/i2000e.pdf (FAO, 2011)
Table 6-8 Annual change rate
Year
1990-2000
Annual change rate (%) -0.06%
2000-2010
0.2%
1990-2010
+0.07
Source: own calculations based on http://www.fao.org/docrep/013/i2000e/i2000e.pdf (FAO, 2011).
Measuring the total rate of habitat conversion (defined as change in forest area plus change
in woodland area minus net plantation expansion) for the 1990-2005 intervals, Morocco lost
1.33% of their forest (FAO, 2011), though by 2010 there was a net gain.
The HCEFLD though reported in 2007 annual losses of forest cover of about 30,000 ha.
Whether Morocco is losing or gaining forest, deforestation occurs in some areas and
afforestation in others and afforestation does not always lead to the same services as those
lost in deforestation. (TEEB, 2011, FAO, 2011, MA 2005). In addition, the reforestation rate
is well below the optimal rate (15 to 20%) for maintaining a basic, functioning level of
ecosystem services. (FAO, 2003) and current management practices do not allow natural
regeneration of the forest.
In any case, it is clear that Moroccan forests have been suffering a disturbing degree of
degradation for several years. They are fragmented, the undergrowth is overgrazed and
soils have become more vulnerable to water erosion, a phenomenon particularly marked in
forests on slopes and in semi-arid bioclimates (FAO,2003).
In order to assess the benefits related to forestry, an ENP wide ‘no net loss by 2020’ target
was set (to allow comparability across countries). This ENP wide target calls for reducing the
annual incremental reduction of the current deforestation rate to 0% by 2020.
According to recent FAO data, deforestation, is not currently a critical issue in Morocco, at
least not on a net level (2010 data from (FAO, 2011). Morocco has made a significant
reforestation effort. The comparison of the reference years (1990, 2000, 2010) shows a gain
of 44 700 ha during the period 1999-2000 and of 98 440 ha during the decade 2000-2010.
Without this effort, there would have been a net loss, according to recent FAO data. As
noted above however, the HCEFLD reported in 2007 annual losses of forest cover of about
30,000 ha.
148
Based on the FAO data, implementing the study target therefore will not lead to additional
environmental improvements in terms of forest size. The assessment will therefore rather
focus on the existing benefits provided by forested areas. What the analysis will highlight is
that it will be important not to degrade or reduce the size of the existing forest in order not
to lose the current benefits. Maintaining the various crucial functions of the forests is a real
challenge for Morocco, as they are severely threatened, mostly by overgrazing
(see Table 6-4 ), but also by illegal overexploitation of firewood and non-timber products.
The benefits in terms of carbon currently stored, and its equivalent monetary value, are
assessed in the next chapters.
The baseline for 2010 sets a rate of current deforestation per annum is at 0.0% in 2010. The
‘BAU baseline’ to 2020 would therefore see a further loss of 0.0% of 2010 forest cover. In
order to reach the ‘Target in 2020’ of halting deforestation by 2020 requires no reduction
per annum to 2020. (own calculations based on (FAO, 2011)). Continuing this trend would
see an increase of 0.09% to 2020.
6.3.4 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest management
Several benefits of improved forest management are described in section 6.2.6, describing
the benefits of enhanced biodiversity protection in general.
The Moroccan forests play an important social and economic role, with an estimated
contribution of 5% to the gross national agricultural product and 1% to the total gross
national product. Moreover, the rural population’s way of life depends to a large extent on
material benefits drawn from forests: 17% of national fodder production and 10 million
m³/year of fuel wood (which is unfortunately three times more than the natural production
capacity) and timber. In addition, forests provide for a significant number of jobs and ecotourism opportunities.
The most important contribution of Moroccan forests to the national economy is certainly
protection of the environment, especially the protection of soil from erosion, the
preservation of water resources in catchment areas, the reduction of siltation in dams and
the protection of infrastructures downstream. (FA0,2003)
The benefits of participatory approaches to forest management are described in Table 6-9.
149
Table 6-9 Benefits of participatory approaches to forest management
Starting in 2006, the Forest Service (Haut Commissariat aux Eaux et Forêts et à la Lutte Contre la
Désertification, HCEFLCD) has launched an ambitious and innovative program of participatory
approaches to forest management involving forest cooperatives and unions (“groupements”) of
forest cooperatives. Cooperatives are contracted as service providers and are given commercial
harvest rights to timber products. In Kenitra Region, illegal forest use fell nearly 98% the first year
where cooperatives conducted patrols and surveillance of the forest, showing how quickly attitudes
of local people can change when they are offered a financial stake in the management and
commercial use of the forest.
The new partnerships present a wide array of opportunities for economic development in favour of
impoverished rural populations, for improved biodiversity conservation and for improved
governance.
A shortcoming of the initiative is that it is being done with a short term perspective and not as a step
towards long term co-management of resources.
There are numerous opportunities for improving value chains of biodiversity products that are
presently harvested as open access goods – such as acorns, mushrooms, truffles, etc. A USAID project
has provided rosemary value chain development support to a forest cooperative awarded a long term
contract for rosemary harvest rights on 22,000 ha near Oujda. (USAID, 2008)
A case example of the benefits of protecting the cedar in the Atlas is given in Table 6-10.
Table 6-10 The cedar of the Atlas: threats and benefits


Current state: Situated in the Rif and the Middle-Atlas, cedar trees cover approximately 130,000
ha. Cedars live several hundreds of years and reach 50 - 60 meters of height with a diameter of
2 m. Cedar forests shelter a rich fauna of numerous birds as well as mammals like the Red Fox,
the Mongoose and especially the emblematic Monkey (the magot).
Threats: However, cedars are threatened by chronic overgrazing which destroys the
undergrowth, illegal cuttings and parasites that precipitate the mortality of veterans weakened
by drought.
Benefits: The non-renewal of cedar does not only mean the end of an ecosystem, but also the
disappearance of a long craft tradition. The wood of the cedar is the wood par excellence for
craftsmen in Morocco, with a pleasant fragrance and naturally resistant to parasites. It is
traditionally used for furniture, ceilings, doors in Fes and Chefchaouen, certain treasures have
been preserved for more than ten centuries.
150
6.3.5 Quantitative assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest management
Morocco’s forests contain 223 million metric tons of carbon in living forest biomass,
according to 2010 estimates (see tables below); this is equivalent to 818 million tCO2
captured/not lost. According to 2000 estimates, each hectare of forest stores on average
4343 tonnes of carbon, i.e. 157.67 tonnes of CO2 (FAO, 2011). Note that significant levels of
carbon is also found in the soil and litter, so these carbon values used here should be seen
as a conservative figure. In the event of deforestation or degradation, it is not only the
living carbon that can be released but also the “dead carbon” (MA 2005, TEEB 2011, Keith et
al 2009).
Forests, like many other ecosystems are affected by climate change, both negatively and
positively. Forests also have the ability to affect global climate and climate change. This
effect can be due to increased reflection of heat into the atmosphere in an area heavily
forested, than on other land that are more open and soil covered. Another effect can be due
to forest’s role in the global carbon cycle that affects global climate change. Forests absorb
carbon in wood, leaves and soil (carbon sinks) and release it into the atmosphere when
burned, during forest fires or the clearing of forest land (Source of Carbon emissions).
According to the FAO 2010 report, the world’s forests store more than 650 billion tonnes of
carbon, 44% in the biomass, 11% in dead wood and litter, and 45% in the soil. However, for
this assessment we limit ourselves to what is stored in biomass.
Further to this The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) shows that to halt
forest degradation and deforestation is an integral part of both climate change mitigation
and adaption when focusing on ‘green carbon’. Forests are further useful to preserve due to
their huge range of services and goods they provide to local people and the wider
community (TEEB, 2009; TEEB,2010; TEEB, 2011; MA, 2005).
According to 2000 estimates, each hectare of forest stores on average 4344 tonnes of
carbon, i.e. 157.67 tonnes of CO2 (FAO, 2011). Accordingly, in 2010 Morocco’s forests
stored about 223 million metric tons of carbon in living forest biomass (see tables below) or
818 million t CO2 equivalent. It will be crucial that no deforestation or degradation takes
place in the future in order not to lose the benefits currently provided in terms of carbon
storage.
43
We assumed that the average per hectare storage capacity has not changed throughout the years, hence assuming the
2000 carbon stock value remains valid today.
44 We assumed that the average per hectare storage capacity has not changed throughout the years, hence assuming the
2000 carbon stock value remains valid today.
151
Table 6-11 Comparative assessment for million tonnes of CO2 stored under BAU and target
scenarios.
Year
2010
BAU: 2020 –
continued
trend
CO2 stored
(million
tonnes)
809
815
Source:
Target 2020:
halting
deforestation trend
in 2020
Net saving from
halting
deforestation
Net gain for
current trend
relative to 2010
reference point
n.a.
n.a.
5.7
http://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Morocco htm
adapted from (FAO, 2011a).
Table 6-12 Carbon stock in living forest biomass. – total and per hectare
Year
1990
2000
2005
2010
Carbon stock in living forest biomass (million tonnes C)
190
212
224
223
Carbon stock in living forest biomass (million tonnes CO2)
697
777
821
818
43
43
n.d.
43
158
158
n.d.
158
Carbon stock in living forest biomass (per hectare in tonnes)
CO2 stock equivalent in living forest biomass (per hectare in tonnes)
n.d.= no data Source: http://rainforests.mongabay.com/deforestation/2000/Morocco.htm adapted from (FAO,
2011a).
6.3.6 Monetary assessment of the benefits of sustainable forest management
By using a monetary (high and low) value for carbon, as identified in recent studies, it is
possible to monetise the value of the amount of carbon currently stored in the forests’ living
biomass, as assessed above.
Assuming a value of CO2 of 17.2 €/ton (low) and 32 €/ton (high) in 2010, the value of the
carbon currently stored by the Morocco forests ranges between 13,900 and 25,875million €.
This is the value of the carbon stored in the living biomass today.
If no deforestation or degradation takes place by 2020, and assuming a carbon value of
39€/ton (low) and 56€/ton (high), in 2020 the carbon stored will be worth 31.6 and 45.4
thousand million €. This is summarised in Table 6-13.
152
Table 6-13 Estimated value of carbon storage in 2010 and 2020 (high and low estimates
Value in 2020
Value in 2010
Low
estimate
High
estimate
Unit
value
(€/tC02)
Baseline: if trend
continues (If
deforestation
not halted / if
afforestation
continues)
"Target": If
deforestation
halted by 2020
If forest
carbon
stays at
2010
levels
Total
value
(m€)
Value
of
stock
gain
2010
to
2020
Net
value
(m€)
Unit
value
(€/tC02)
Total
value
(m€)
Unit
value
Total Value (m€)
Total value
(m€)
17.2
13,915
39
31773
n.a.
31,551
222
32
25,888
56
45622
n.a.
45,303
319
Note that this is a stock value and not an annual value of carbon sequestered 45, so care is
needed when looking at carbon savings from renewable energy technologies, which offer
savings every year (See later section). Note also that these values are total values; strictly
speaking the carbon values applied are more suited to marginal changes than total stock
values (as if all stock were to be lost, the marginal value itself would change); nevertheless
the calculated values are important as indicators of the climatic importance of not losing the
forest cover.
6.4
Benefits from improved croplands
6.4.1 Introduction
Agricultural crop land degradation is widespread in many countries. This section assesses
the benefits of a reversal of crop land degradation or, in other words, an improvement in
cropland quality. A target for improvement in cropland quality to be achieved by year 2020
is specified, direct and indirect benefits of crop land improvements are discussed
qualitatively, and direct benefits in terms of increased value of crop production are
quantitatively assessed.
Definitions of key terms used in this section are:





Crop land: Land used for cultivation of agricultural crops.
Area harvested: Hectares of crop land multiplied by the number of harvests per year.
Crop yields: Tons of crop harvested per hectare of area harvested.
Crop production: Tons of crop harvested, i.e. area harvested multiplied by crop yield.
Cereals: Mainly wheat, barley, maize, rice, oats, sorghum, rye and millet.
45
Annual carbon sequestration from existing forest stocks depend on a number of features (maturity, type of
forest, whether living and non-living carbon are included, management practices, climatic conditions) – these
have not been calculated separately for each country; the FAO statistics that formed the basis of this analysis
gave carbon stock values.
153
Other crops: Fruits, vegetables, fibre crops, oil crops, pulses, roots and tubers, treenuts
and other minor crops.
Crop land quality: Here defined as those characteristics and properties of crop land that
affect crop yield. Crop land quality is impaired by crop land degradation and potentially
improved by improved crop land management.
Crop land degradation: Inter-temporal changes in properties of crop land such as loss of
top soil (from wind and/or water erosion), soil salinity, soil nutrient losses and other
degraded physical or chemical properties of the soil.
Human induced degradation: Degradation caused by human activities.
Improved crop land management: Here defined as practices that reduce, prevent, or
reverse crop land degradation and preserve or improve crop land quality with positive
impacts on crop yield.





6.4.2 Current status
Agriculture share of GDP in Morocco was 14.6% in 2008 (World Bank, 2010). Area harvested
was 7.25 million hectares in 2008. Cereals constituted 5.4 million hectares and other crops
about 1.85 million hectares.46
Much of agricultural crop land in Morocco suffers from degradation. But systematic and
nationwide data are scarce. One exception is the Global Assessment of Soil Degradation
(GLASOD) survey data presented in FAO (FAO, 2000).47 The national territory is classified
into five categories: land that is non-degraded, and land with light, moderate, severe and
very severe degradation. According to these data, 96% of the land area in Morocco suffers
from some degree of human induced degradation (Table 6 14). Main identified types of
human induced land degradation are top soil losses from water and wind erosion and
chemical deterioration of the soil, largely caused by agricultural activities, deforestation,
and overgrazing.
Table 6-14 Extent of human induced land degradation in Morocco
Degradation
None
Light
Moderate
Severe
Very Severe
Cause
Type
Land area degraded
(% of national
territory)
4%
9%
67%
14%
5%
A, D, (O)
W, (C,N)
Population
distribution
0%
35%
46%
9%
10%
Source: FAO (2000). Note: A=agricultural activities; D=deforestation; O=overgrazing;
W=water erosion; C=chemical deterioration; N=wind erosion.
46
Area harvested is estimated based on linear trends using FAO reported data from 1995-2008 due to annual
fluctuations in area harvested (FAO 2011).
47 GLASOD collated expert judgement of soil scientists to produce maps of human induced soil degradation.
Using uniform guidelines, data were compiled on the status of soil degradation considering the type,
extent, degree, rate and causes of degradation within physiographic units (Sonneveld and Dent, 2007).
154
A disadvantage of the GLASOD data is that they date back more than 20 years. They may
therefore represent an underestimate of land degradation today. Advantages of the data
are that they provide a basis for multi-country economic assessments, and that economic
assessments are simplified by the data providing land categories that reflect an aggregate of
various forms of degradation.48 It is therefore not necessary to undertake an economic
assessment of each type of soil degradation (erosion, salinity, nutrient losses, and other
degraded chemical and physical properties of the soil).
Target to be reached by 2020
The target for which benefits are assessed in this study is an improvement in crop land
quality by year 2020 that results in an increase in crop yields equivalent to half of the crop
yield losses from current levels of land degradation. Improvement in land quality also has
other benefits that are discussed qualitatively (see below).
It is assumed that the improvement in crop land quality as stipulated by the target is
achievable through improved crop land management practices that reduce or halt on-farm
loss of top soil from erosion, reduce soil salinity, partially of fully replenish soil nutrients,
and improve other physical and chemical soil properties.
The GLASOD data are used here to estimate the increase in crop yields from meeting the
target in 2020. Such estimation is, however, not free from problems and necessitates many
assumptions:
 First, crop yield reductions resulting from current levels of land degradation must be
assumed. Plausible reductions applied here are presented in Table 6-15 using a “low”,
“medium” and “high” scenario.49
 Second, the GLASOD data do not allow for crop specific yield effects. It is therefore
assumed that all crops cultivated in each land category suffer from the same yield
reduction.
In light of the need for these assumptions, the benefit assessment in this section should be
considered as only indicative.
48
Sonneveld and Dent (2007) note that the GLASOD data do not necessarily represent consistent classifications of land
degradation across countries. Cross-country economic assessments are therefore not necessarily comparable.
49 The assumed yield reductions for “moderately degraded” land are of similar orders of magnitude as average yield losses
reported in Pimentel et al (1995) and a literature review of several regions of the world (by Wiebe, 2003).
155
Table 6-15 Assumptions of current crop yield reductions on degraded land
Land degradation categories
Not degraded
Lightly degraded
Moderately degraded
Severely degraded
Very severely degraded
Source: Assumptions by the authors.
Yield reduction (relative to non-degraded land)
“Low
“Medium”
“High”
0%
0%
0%
5%
5%
5%
10%
15%
20%
15%
20%
25%
20%
25%
30%
Baseline to 2020
Baseline tons of crop production must be projected to year 2020 from reference year 2008,
assuming business-as-usual (i.e., no change in crop land management practices). Baseline
crop production is then compared against estimated crop production resulting from
achieving the target in year 2020 (see above) through better crop land management.
Projections in real crop prices to year 2020 must also be made in order to estimate the
monetary benefit of improvement in crop land quality.50
Baseline assumptions are presented in Table 6-16:
Table 6-16 Projected baseline crop production and value of production, 2008-2020
Annual increase in crop production
Annual increase in real crop prices
Cereals
-0.2%
4.0%
Other crops
1.5%
3.0%
Projected annual crop production from 2008 to 2020 is based on linear trends in production
of cereals and other crops in Morocco from 1990 to 2008 using data from FAO (FAO 2011).
Projected production reflects changes in both areas harvested and crop yields.
Crop prices may be expected to increase at a faster rate to 2020 than prices of other goods
and services in the economy. The FAO world food price index increased by 33% and the FAO
world cereals price index increased by 31% from the 2007-2010 average index value to the
January-February 2011 average index value (FAO 2011). However, the large price increases
of cereals and foods observed during 2006-2008 and again in 2010 are likely to be off-set by
future periods of decline in prices as experienced during 1999-2003 and again in 2009. Thus
the projected real price of cereals is assumed to increase at a rate of 4% per year and the
real prices of other crops at a rate of 3% per year to 2020. The crop prices in reference year
2008 to which these price increases are applied are FAO reported international commodity
prices for cereals and FAO reported producer prices in Morocco for other crops.51
International commodity prices for cereals were applied because they better reflect the real
50
Real crop price increase is nominal crop price increase minus the nominal price increase of other goods and services in
the economy.
51 Reference year cereal prices are averages for 2007-2010 to smooth the price volatility observed in 2008.
156
economic value of internationally traded crops, such as cereals, than domestic producer
prices of these crops.
Improvements achieved by reaching the targets
The improvements of reaching the target by 2020 are the difference between crop land
quality with no change in crop land management practices and crop land quality with
improved land management practices. This difference is assumed to result in an increase in
crop yields equivalent to half of the crop yield losses from current levels of land degradation
(see Target to be reached by 2020). Improvements in crop land management practices may
also be expected to have many other benefits (see below).
The GLASOD data do not map crop areas harvested by the categories of land degradation in
Table 6 14. Assumptions about distribution of crop areas harvested must therefore be
made.
Two distribution options are used here:
1. Crop areas harvested are distributed in proportion to land area in each land
degradation category (e.g., 67% of areas harvested in Morocco are on moderately
degraded land (Table 6 14).
2. Crop areas harvested are distributed in proportion to population distribution across
the land degradation categories (e.g., 46% of areas harvested in Morocco are on
moderately degraded land (Table 6 14).
The first option assumes that crop area harvested is uniformly distributed across the
country. Clearly this is a special case and highly unlikely because of forests, mountains and
uncultivable desert/arid areas.
The second option assumes that hectares of crop area harvested per population are the
same everywhere. This may be close to the case if the whole population were rural and
employed in agriculture.
Using the data in Table 6-14 and 6-15, Table 6-17 presents estimates of yield increase from
meeting the target in 2020 based on the two distributions of crop areas harvested. “Low”,
“medium” and “high” refer to the scenarios of yield losses from land degradation in Table
6-17.
Table 6-17 Estimates of yield increase from meeting the target in 2020
Low
Medium
High
Land area
distribution
6%
9%
12%
Population
distribution
5%
7%
10%
Mean
value
6%
8%
11%
157
6.4.4 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reaching the targets
Improvement in crop land management resulting in improved crop land quality and reversal
of crop land degradation has many direct and indirect benefits including health,
environmental, economic and social. Direct benefits are those that accrue on-farm, such as
increased crop yields and long-term sustainability of land use. Indirect benefits are those
that accrue off-farm, such as benefits from reduced soil and agro-chemical run-offs. A
generic overview of these benefits is provided in Table 6-18. (CDE 2009).
Table 6-18 Benefits of improved crop land management
Health benefits
 Soil erosion control can reduce agro-chemical run-offs which can help
reduce pollution of water sources used for drinking and bathing, and
thus contribute to protection of health.
 Improved soil nutrient management can reduce the need for chemical
fertilizer applications and thus reduce nitrate pollution of surface and
groundwater resources used for drinking.
Environmental benefits  Soil erosion control can reduce soil run-offs and sedimentation of
rivers and lakes. Sediment:
o causes turbidity in the water that limits light penetration and
prohibits healthy plant growth on the river bed.
o can cover much of a river bed with a blanket of silt that
suffocates life.
o is an important carrier of phosphorus, a critical pollutant
which causes eutrophication.
 Soil erosion control and improved soil nutrient management can
reduce the need for and run-offs of agro-chemicals and thus reduce
water pollution.
 Improved crop land management can prevent land becoming
degraded to the extent that it is abandoned (e.g., severe erosion or
salinity, physical or chemical soil degradation). Thus, in some
countries, improved land quality can contribute to reduced
desertification.
Economic benefits
 Enhanced agricultural crop yields through improved physical and
chemical soil properties and reduced salinity and erosion.
 Erosion control reduces sedimentation of reservoirs and dams used
for irrigation, municipal water supply, and/or hydropower, and
therefore increases their useful lifetime.
 Reduced agro-chemical run-offs from erosion control may also reduce
the cost of municipal water treatment.
Social benefits
Erosion control reduces agro-chemical run-offs and therefore improves
quality of water bodies used for recreation.
Source: Produced by the authors.
158
6.4.5 Quantitative assessment
Many of the benefits of improved crop land management are difficult to quantify, such as
health, environmental, and off-farm economic benefits. The quantitative assessment
focuses therefore on the on-farm value of increased crop yields from improved crop land
management. The economic benefits of reduced dam and reservoir sedimentation are
especially important in water scarce counties. The social benefits of improved recreational
values from reduced agro-chemical pollution of water resources are reflected in the benefit
assessment section on surface water quality.
The benefits of meeting the target of improvement in land quality that reduces current crop
yield effects of land degradation by 50% by 2020 are estimated based on the yield increases
in Table 6-17. The yield increases are multiplied by the estimated value of crop production
in 2020 (see below). This provide the estimated value of the extra tons of crop production
as a result of reducing land degradation and are the annual benefits in 2020 of meeting the
target.
6.4.6
Monetary assessment of the benefits
The projected real market value of total crop production in year 2020 is DH 91.3 billion. The
annual benefits, i.e., the estimated value of the extra tons of crop production, in year 2020
of achieving the target amount to 6-11% of this value, or DH 5.0-9.7 billion (PPP €684-1,313
million). This is equivalent to 0.51-0.98% of projected GDP in 2020. All figures are in 2008
PPP € and 2008 DHs.
Table 6-19 Estimated annual benefits in 2020 of meeting the target
Low
Medium
High
Value of increased crop yields
(DH billion)
5.0
7.2
9.7
(PPP € million)
684
985
1,313
(% of GDP)
0.51%
0.73%
0.98%
Source: Estimates by the Authors.Note: Mean value of estimated yield increases in Table 6-17 is
applied.
159
7
BENEFITS OF IMPROVING CLIMATE CHANGE RELATED CONDITIONS
7.1
This section
This section covers the following aspects of climate change:


Uptake of renewable energy sources
Analysis of major impacts of climate change and possible mitigation measures.
7.2
Benefits from increasing the uptake of renewable energy sources
7.2.1 Introduction to the approach taken
Renewable energy sources (RES), also called renewables, are energy sources that replenish
(or renew) themselves naturally, such as solar, wind, and tidal energy. In contrast, fuels such
as coal, oil, and natural gas are non-renewable. Once a deposit of these fuels is depleted it
cannot be replenished.
Renewable energy sources include the following:







Biomass: Biodegradable fraction of products, waste and residues from biological origin
from agriculture - including vegetal and animal substances- , forestry and related
industries including fisheries and aquaculture, as well as the biodegradable fraction of
industrial and municipal waste (EC, 2009).
Hydropower: the electricity generated from the potential and kinetic energy of water in
hydroelectric plants.
Geothermal energy: the energy available as heat from within the earth’s crust, usually in
the form of hot water or steam.
Wind energy: the kinetic energy of wind converted into electricity in wind turbines.
Solar energy: solar radiation exploited for solar heat (hot water) and electricity
production.
Aerothermal energy: i.e., energy stored in the form of heat in the ambient air.
Ocean energy: there are different forms of renewable energy available in the oceans:
waves, currents, thermal gradients, salinity gradients, the tides and others.
This section focuses on the benefits of increasing the use of renewable energy sources
(RES), as these can reduce the amount greenhouse gases (GHG) thanks to the reduction in
the consumption of fossil fuels. Whilst the resulting air quality improvements are primarily
local and national in scale, the reductions in climate change impacts are assumed to be
spread globally.
The quantification assessment will focus on the environmental benefits related to increased
substitution of fossil fuels with RES, resulting in a decrease in CO2 emissions, if a target of
10% RES uptake were to be reached by 2020 as set in the Moroccan Mitigation Strategy of
2008. A 10% target is low in comparison with the UE targets of 20% and furthermore, there
is potential for a much higher level of RES contribution to domestic energy demand in
161
Morocco given the high hydroelectric power and wind power potential (with a 3,500 km
long coast and average wind speeds of up to 11 meters per second) and given the
extraordinary conditions for solar energy, including land for solar power plants.
To assess the monetary value of reduced CO2 emissions due to the RES uptake, a range of
carbon values, based on well recognised studies52, have been used – as shown in Table 7-1.
Table 7-1 Carbon value used in this study (€/t)
GHG
Carbon dioxide (CO2) or
CO2 equivalent
Range
Low
2010
17.2
2020
39
High
32
56
Source: based on data from EC (2008; DECC (2009); and Centre d’analyse stratégique (2009)
7.2.2 Current uptake and potential for renewable energy sources53
Current and forecasted level of energy by source
Due to industrialisation and urbanisation, energy demand has risen in recent years by an
average of 8%. Power generation is primarily fuelled by fossil energy sources, mainly oil
(70%) but also coal and natural gas, which are all imported. This represents an enormous
economic challenge. Morocco announced an energy security plan in 2008. The plan aims to
reduce dependence on foreign energy sources by increasing efficiency and by harnessing its
huge potential for renewable solar and wind energy. Currently, only 4 % of the primary
energy input comes from renewable energy sources (RES).
The overall electricity production conversion ratio is 33% which is relatively low.
Table 7-2 shows the primary energy consumption (IEA Statistics 2008)54.
52
European Commission values (EC 2008 and DECC 2009) have been used as the lower carbon values
and,estimates from a French study (Centre d’analyse stratégique, 2009) as the higher values.
53 energy mix, focuses on total final energy consumption and builds on IEA data for these countries. Some
assumptions as regards conversion losses in the electricity, heat and CHP (combined heat and power) were
necessary in the calculations to allocate outputs to fuel inputs. The use of common assumptions for the
countries has led to the renewable share of the total energy consumption being somewhat lower in the final
RES figures ²than would be the case in practice, though not to the extent of changing the overall CO2 savings
significantly (the savings of meeting the ENPI wide target should arguably be a few percent lower on averages).
This slight overestimate is thought to be more than offset by the arguably more conservative assumption that
energy consumption per capita over the period 2010 to 2020 remains constant, as in reality future increase in
demand can be expected to be more than offset by efficiency gains (hence the share of renewables over may
be higher). Note that the Benefits Assessment Manual and the supporting spreadsheet tool available to
countries have instead been revised using an adjustable set of conversion rates, to offer countries a tool that
allows for using more country specific assumptions. Slightly revised values, taking into account some of these
country-specific assumptions, have been included in the two regional ENPI synthesis reports, but not in the
single country reports as these were already concluded before this additional finalisation of the method
(conducted beyond the end of the project). Countries wishing to do their own analysis can explore the issue
further by adapting their assumptions in light of fuller nuanced country-specific information on the electricity,
heat and CHP stock (performance efficiency, losses, age), exports and imports of fuels, energy efficiency and
demand changes.
54
http://www.iea.org/stats/balancetable.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=MA
162
Table 7-2 Primary energy consumption
Table 7-3 shows the primary energy consumption for electricity production (IEA Statistics
2008).
Table 7-3 Primary energy consumption for electricity production
Figure 5 shows the energy demand evolution and forecast (Moroccan Mitigation Strategy 2008)55.
55
Moroccan Mitigation Strategy, Keynote speech of Dr. Amina Benkhadra, Minister of Energy, Mines, Water
and Environment, Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change, November 1-18, 2009
163
Figure 5 Energy demand evolution and forecast
Current level and trends of CO2-emissions
In 2008, CO2 emissions from energy use totalled 42 M ton CO2 of which 35 % comes from
electricity production.
Current situation of RES in the country
Only 4% of the final energy consumption is provided for by RES and only 1% by clean RES
(RES excluding biomass). About 2.5 % of the primary energy input for electricity production
is a RES mainly hydro (75%).
Baseline
Table 7-4 presents the baseline situation. Basic assumptions are:



Share of RES will increase from the 4.63 % in 2008 to 10 % in 2020.
Final energy consumption will be 26,000 Ktoe, as stated by the Ministry.
The Ministry claims an energy efficiency potential of 73.5 M CO2 which is roughly
10% of the actual total CO2 emission and we assume that this savings have been
taking into account with respect of the above 26 Mtoe primary energy use projection
for 2020.
164
Table 7-4 Baseline production from RES in 2020
Potential
Figure 6 maps both the technical solar and wind potential. As for wind energy the total
technical potential amount to 25 GW whereas the installed capacity as per 2008 is only 114
MW. Reportedly, the economic potential for wind energy would be about 6 GW (Plan Bleu –
UNEP, 2007).
Figure 6 Technical Wind and Solar potential (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
ENERGY:
WORLD CLASS RENEWABLE RESOURCES
> 5,5 kWh/m2/day
5,3 to 5,5 kWh/m2/day
5 to 5,3 kWh/m2/day
4,7 to 5 kWh/m2/day
< 5,5 kWh/m2
Solar Potential: More than 5kWh/m2/day
Wind Technical Potential: 25 000 MW
For information: one liter = 10 kWh
Targets set by the government
The target as set by the Moroccan Ministry of Energy, Mines, Water and Environment in its
2008 Mitigation Strategy is 12 % RES for primary energy (Figure 7) and 42 % RES for
Electricity production (Figure 8) . In order to do so, a set of new laws and legislation is being
rolled out (Figure 9).
Morocco launched a National Energy Strategy Plan in 2008 and an associated National
Priority Action Plan (PNAP) which sets a renewable energy target of 10-12 % of primary
165
energy use by 2020 and 15-20 % by 2030. The figures below list the key investments
necessary for realizing the above targets.
Since RES roll-out has been delayed, the RES target in the above baseline has been set at
10% instead of the official 12% target.
The EU target for 2020 is a RES share of 20%
Figure 7 Objectives for RE (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
166
Figure 8 Objective for electricity production (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
Figure 9 Legal initiatives in the field of energy management (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
167
Figure 10 Morocco’s solar objective (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
Figure 11 Actual and short term RE initiatives in both energy utilities as well as energy production
in the industry (Moroccan Mitigation Plan 2008)
168
Environmental Improvements
The environmental improvement is based on the increase in the uptake of renewable
energy if a 20 % target were to be reached. As presented in Table 7-5, the environmental
improvement is 2,600 ktoe of fossil fuels reduced.
Table 7-5 Environmental improvements if EU RES targets are met
7.2.4 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of renewable
energy sources
The environmental impact Morocco’s high dependency on fossil energy (imports) in term of
greenhouse gas emissions (60% from industry) is significant. While conventional power
plants and traditional fuel use lead to significant air and water pollution, renewable energy
produces no (or very little) pollution. Increased uptake of RES can also prevent or reduce
land degradation and habitat destruction due to mining and traditional fuel gathering.
169
Application of renewable energy technology can also have various climate change mitigation
and adaptation benefits. Mitigation benefits from the efficient use of RES include:


avoidance of CO2 and other GHG emissions (biomass energy though relies on
combustion and therefore produces CO2; its use would not, therefore, alleviate the
greenhouse effect),
reduced consumption of biomass and wood fuel, and thus protection of land cover and
reduced likelihood of deforestation, such that important carbon “sinks” are conserved.
Renewables themselves are non-polluting, while the structures built to harness them can
have positive or negative environmental impacts. It is thus crucial to make sure that possible
impacts from RES on the local environment are avoided or mitigated, e.g. limited land use
change, construction of dams, which may affect fish migration but which may also create
wildlife habitat. Another example which, particularly relevant for Morocco, is that
deforestation caused by biomass should be mitigated.
Deforestation caused by biomass is an important issue in Morocco. Biomass accounts for an
important share of Moroccan energy consumption (34%), representing a major
deforestation problem (30,000 hectares annually) in rural areas, indicating that access to
energy supply services is still limited in these areas. It is estimated that about 50% of the
population using fuel wood for heating and cooking ,collects it from neighbouring forests (in
the neighbourhood of 10 km) while the other 50% buys the wood, with an average monthly
consumption of about 50 kg/household. In order to improve the use of fuel wood,
programmes carried out by ADEREE and other national and international partners have
focused on fuel switching and energy efficiency. These include:



Dissemination of small agricultural bio-digesters for producing biogas. Since 1983, more
than 350 units have been installed in different regions of country.
Dissemination of fuel wood-saving stoves for cooking and heating in rural zones and
encouragement to consume gas.
Promoting the use of wood energy-saving technologies for urban and rural hammams,
through training, informative and incentive measures to save neighbouring forests. The
new technologies can attain a 78% efficiency rate.
Health benefits
Renewable energy power plants can help reduce urban air pollution by displacing fossil
fuelled power plants and their contribution to poor ambient air quality. The resulting
improvements in air quality can have important health benefits to urban dwellers, e.g. a
reduction in pulmonary diseases. The benefits of improved air quality are discussed earlier
in this report.
170
Social benefits
The main social benefit of shifting to renewable energies is the possibility to provide energy
to isolated locations not connected to the electricity grid. In recent years, Morocco has
made great progress in providing grid power to its population. In 1996, ONE launched a
national electrification programme named Programme pour l’Electrification Rurale Global
(PERG), with decentralized power production, mainly from small individual photovoltaic (PV)
kits, as the cornerstone of the programme. By the end of 2007, 44 719 households
in 3 163 villages were equipped with photovoltaic kits. The rate of rural electrification was
only 18 % in 1995 before the programme started, but rose steadily to 95.4 % by the end of
2008.
Provision of reliable, affordable and environmentally sound energy services to isolated
locations broadens their development opportunities, provides income generation and
provides social services like education and health care, food security. In fact, for many
applications, renewable energy technologies can be the least-cost source of reliable modern
energy.
Examples of applications that result in income generation include:






water pumping for irrigation
cottage industry like sewing, weaving, handicrafts
agro-industry processing
crop and meat drying and freezing
kiln firing for pottery
welding and wood-working
Examples of applications that provide valuable social services include:




water pumping for drinking: the use of mechanized pumps can allow to access
previously untapped water supplies. As such, improved energy access from renewable
energy strengths adaptation and resilience to climate related stresses, i.e. vulnerability
to water scarcity
treating water resources: improved energy availability can allow treating (boiling,
filtering, etc) the available water resources to make them safe for drinking.
home, school, and community-centre lighting
community street lighting
Another social benefit of shifting to renewable energies is the possibility to prevent
electricity outages and sharp price increases, although large investments for RES might well
reduce this benefit. Electricity prices in Morocco are, by regional standards, relatively high.
The price of electricity for final consumers is fixed by decree from the Prime Minister of
Morocco. Subsidies on electricity prices have been phased out in recent years, leading to a
steady but moderate price increase. (GTZ, 2009).
171
Economic benefits
Economic benefits derive particularly from the increased energy security due to increased
diversification and increased national production.
An increased uptake of RES can contribute to the energy security Morocco, in particular
given its high dependence on imports. Renewable energy systems broaden the portfolio of
options for energy resources and for reducing dependence on fuels with significant price
volatility and availability concerns. In the long-term, hydrocarbon supplies are becoming
costlier to discover and extract, pushing up the price. In the medium-term, oil and natural
gas prices have been shown to be the most volatile of all energy commodities, and an
overexposure to this volatility could harm the economy. Diversification away from fossil
fuels could mitigate the impacts of both future price rises, and of volatility, thereby
increasing overall energy security. Renewable energy’s low recurrent input costs mean that
its marginal cost of production is much less exposed to commodity price fluctuations.
Therefore, renewable energy systems, by broadening the portfolio of energy resources used
within a country, can contribute to energy security and economic stability. (World Bank,
2008)
Renewable energy systems can support decentralized markets and contribute to local
economic development (see above the social benefits) by:



creating employment (e.g. for production, installation and maintenance)
introducing new capital and innovation
developing new revenue sources for local communities, e.g. the production of energy
from biomass presents new opportunities for rural farmers who could sell the biomass.
However, attention should be paid to the growing aridisation risks resulting from climate
change.
Renewable energy systems can lead to possible cost savings in energy production. Cost
savings should be evaluated on a case by case level. Renewable sources of energy vary
widely in their cost-effectiveness and in their availability. Although water, wind, and other
renewables may appear free, their cost comes in collecting, harnessing, and transporting the
energy. For example, to utilise energy from water, a dam must be built along with electric
generators and transmission lines.
Industrial companies are beginning to make use of wind energy on a decentralised basis. As
large electricity consumers, they have the possibility to auto produce their electricity and
have it transported from production site to consumption site via ONE’s grid. Furthermore,
surplus electricity will be fed into the public grid and bought from ONE at a fixed rate (see
chapter on support schemes). Lafarge Ciments, who implemented the first project on wind
energy auto production, provides two reasons for their project: Through auto production it
is possible to cut energy costs (especially as the cement industry uses a great deal of
electricity) and to prove environmental commitment.
If a renewable energy project is being registered as a Clean Development Mechanism
project, extra revenues through the sale of emission credits accrue.
172
7.2.5 Quantitative assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of renewable
energy sources
The quantitative assessment focuses mainly on the benefits related to the decrease in CO 2missions. Table 7-6 presents the related decreases in CO2-emissions related to the reduction
in the use of fossil fuels.
If a 20 % RES target was met in 2020, Morocco would emit 9,981 kt CO2-equivalents less –
and it would be more if the 10% baseline is optimistic. Whilst the resulting air quality
improvements will be primarily local and national in scale, the reductions in climate change
impacts are assumed to be spread globally.
Table 7-6 CO2 reduction if EU RES targets are met
7.2.6
Monetary assessment of the benefits of increasing the uptake of renewable
energy sources
As shown in Table 7-7, the total annual monetary benefits from reduced emissions due to
increased uptake of RES has been estimated at between €389 and 558 million for the year
2020 based on the lower and higher carbon price scenarios and relative to the baseline that
has RES growing from 4.6 % to 20% over the period. The benefits over the period 2010 to
2020 would start lower (as current RES is far from 12%) and increase as progress is made to
the 2020 target. After 2020 the renewable share will continue to lead to benefits of avoided
CO2 savings over the operational lifetime of the technology.
Table 7-7 Monetary benefit if EU RES targets are met
173
7.3
Benefits from adapting to climate change
7.3.1 Introduction to the approach taken
This section identifies benefits from adapting to climate change. This section primarily
synthesises existing research, but has supplemented this material where data availability
allows.
The overall objective is to identify potential impacts from climate change, before identifying
measures – known as adaptation – that may be expected to reduce these impacts, and so
provide benefits. The emphasis is on climate change impacts that are likely to be
detrimental – rather than beneficial - to human well-being.
It should be noted that many of the benefits identified and assessed in this report for other
parameters, are common to this section. For example, water resources may be further
threatened under climate change futures. In this case, measures that alleviate pressure on
water resources are also likely to reduce climate change-induced water resource pressure.
However, since climate change exacerbates the pressure, it is implied that to fully respond
to the pressure, additional economic resources will be needed.
Adaptation can be defined as adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic change or its effects. The purpose of the adjustment is to reduce harmor risk of harm- or to exploit beneficial opportunities associated with climate change.
Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory (before impacts are
observed) and reactive (after impacts have been felt) adaptation, private and public
adaptation, and autonomous (action from individuals, households, businesses and
communities) and planned (the result of deliberate policy decisions) adaptation. In most
circumstances, anticipatory planned adaptations will incur lower long-term costs and be
more effective than reactive adaptations.
Adaptation measures are practical initiatives and measures to reduce the vulnerability of
natural and human systems against actual or expected climate change effects, such as
raising river or coastal dikes moving human settlements out of flood plains, the substitution
of more temperature-shock resistant plants for sensitive ones, etc.
Adaptation benefits are the avoided damage costs or the accrued benefits following the
adoption and implementation of adaptation measures. One can distinguish between
potential impacts and residual impacts. Potential impacts are all impacts that may occur
given a projected change in climate, without considering adaptation. Residual impacts are
the impacts of climate change that would occur after adaptation.
Different countries and systems have different adaptive capacity, i.e. a different ability to
adjust to climate change or to cope with the consequences. Adaptive capacity is often
assumed to relate closely with: level of economic development (GDP/capita); availability of
technologies, infrastructure, institutions and education.
Vulnerability depends on climate change exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity.
174
Overview of key climate change impacts that are expected to affect the country56
Mean annual temperature has increased by 0.9°C since 1960, an average rate of 0.2°C per
decade. This increasing trend varies with season, and is only statistically significant in spring
and autumn. The rate of increase is most rapid in the hot, dry season, at 0.34°C per decade.
The frequency of days that are classed as ‘hot’ has increased significantly since 1960 in all
seasons except autumn. The frequency of nights that are classed as ‘hot’, however, has
increased significantly in all seasons. Mean annual rainfall over Morocco has not changed
with any consistent trend since 1960. There are insufficient daily rainfall observations
available from which to determine changes in the extremes indices of daily rainfall.
Nonetheless, there is strong anecdotal and scientific evidence of erratic rainfall patterns and
increasing frequency of drought over the last two decades.
In the past decades, Morocco suffered a number of extreme droughts that shook its political
stability. Since 1990, Morocco has experienced one year of drought out of every two years,
compared to one out of five years during previous decades Cereal production was sharply
reduced, food security was threatened and in both 1981 and 1984, violent rioting erupted
due to increased prices of the basic food staples that supply nearly 90% of the calories in the
average Moroccan diet.57 The drought in 1999 affected 275,000 people in the country.58
Nearly 80% of Morocco’s lands are at high risk of desertification, which is caused, by
droughts, wild fires (fuelled by droughts and likely to become more frequent and more
severe as climate change progresses) that ravage an average forest area of 3,600 ha per
year, the intensification of agriculture and the overuse of natural resources, in particular of
forest resources. Desertification poses a significant challenge, in particular for the poor rural
population.
Unusually devastating floods have been recorded in Morocco in recent years. While many of
the smaller, localized floods went uncounted, 13 major flood events were recorded during
the last 20 years. The death toll for these events was 1,230. (UNICEF, 2008)
The reduction of snow cover on the Rif and Atlas mountains and changes in rainfall
distribution are indications of likely warming.59
The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 to 3.5°C by the 2060s, and 1.4
to 5.6°C by the 2090s. The range of projections by the 2090s under any one emissions
scenario is 1.5‐ 3.0°C. The projected rate of warming is faster in the interior regions of
Morocco than in those areas closer to the coast.
Annually, projections indicate that ‘hot’ days will occur on 15‐28% of days by the 2060s, and
16‐39% of days by the 2090s. Nights that are considered ‘hot’ for the annual climate of
56
This section is taken – in large part – from C. McSweeney, C., New M. and G. Lizcano UNDP Climate Change
Country Profiles - Morocco
57 Morocco, Consommation et dépenses des ménages 1984-85 :Premiers résultats, rapport de synthèse, vol. 1,
Direction de la Statistique, Rabat, 1988.
58 EM-DAT, Emergency Events Database, Morocco Country Profile, www.emdat.be
59 http://uk.oneworld.net/guides/morocco/climate-change
175
1970‐99 are projected to occur on 16‐30% of nights by the 2060s and 19‐41% of nights by
the 2090s. All projections indicate decreases in the frequency of days and nights that are
considered ‘cold’ in current climate. Cold days occur on less than 5% of days by the 2090s,
and cold nights less than 4% of nights.
Decreases in annual rainfall are generally projected in Morocco. The current ensemble
model projections range from very small increases of up to 10%, to a maximum decrease of
52%. The ensemble median change is ‐15 to ‐29%.
The main Climate Change challenges facing Morocco are related to the effects of sea-level
rise, lack of water resources and decrease of agricultural productivity.
Sea level rise
Morocco’s rural northeast coast, including the low lying Nador and Berkane provinces, is
increasingly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, storm
surges, and coastal flooding. Sea level rise may pose an important threat for people, coastal
infrastructure, and natural heritages. Recent results from the Adaptation to Climate Change
in Morocco–ACCMA- project have shown that sea level rise (SLR) might be expected to
threaten coastal development in these areas, as well as associated industries such as
tourism.
Some areas of the north coast are already eroding at a rate of 1 metre per year and the
average global sea level rise (SLR) predicted by the IPCC (up to 59 cm by 2100) will
exacerbate erosion. Poverty limits the ability of local residents to cope with these changes.
Average farm household incomes in some communities are as low as $540 per year.
Remittances from overseas relatives keep many families out of poverty, but do little to
create jobs.
Water Resource Availability/ Scarcity
Quantitative estimates of possible climate change impacts on water resources in 2020 point
to the fact that there would be an average and general decrease in water resources (in the
order of 10 to 15 %). According to current climate models, by the end of the century, the
average annual precipitation rate is likely to fall by 20%. Higher temperatures will increase
the rate at which water in the soil evaporates, exacerbating the summer water shortages
that are already a feature of many countries in the region.
The consequences of this decrease and the disruption of rainfall would be:




A decrease in dam capacity
A disruption of the flow rates of streams and rivers
A decrease in water levels, producing a decrease in the natural outlets for water tables
and an increase in their salinity in the coastline areas.
A deterioration of water quality
176
In practical terms, increased water scarcity has direct impacts on agricultural production and
food supply. These impacts include:




A decrease in cereal yields by 50% in dry years and 10% in normal years.
An increase in the needs for the water necessary for irrigated crops (somewhere
between 7 and 12%).
The extinction of some crops
The appearance of new diseases
Reduced water resources will thus threaten the food security- in particular of the poor. The
drought in 1999 affected 275,000 people in the country.60
Increasing water scarcity has a negative impact on the generation of electricity by
hydropower.
For Morocco, the overall financial cost of adaptation will be significant (UNICEF, 2008).
The Government of Morocco, aware of the fact that climate change is causing extra
pressure on limited resources, stated: It is clear that the Moroccan economy which is still
caught up in the problems of development and struggles against poverty, cannot withstand
the costs of such [adaptation] projects without sacrificing the major components of its social
and economic development programs (education, health, basic infrastructures, rural
development, etc.).61 In most cases, such as the coastal adaptation plans, benefits occur in
the long run and early losses are expected because of the large ‘kick-off’ investments that
are needed.
No assessment has been conducted so far on the potential improvements and benefits
associated to adaptation to climate change. The Moroccan government, however, identified
a number of adaptation initiatives that can help reducing the impacts of climate change
(Kingdom of Morocco – National Plan Against Global Warming, 2009).
For agriculture, a sample of the most important adaptation measures being considered
includes:
-
60
61
Development of the adaptive capacity of rural populations through the identification
and the development of technical, institutional options and suitable policies
Development of a national forecast system for the agricultural production and
development of an agricultural system of warning
Creation of the varieties of common wheat which are resistant to drought and to
diseases and parasites
EM-DAT, Emergency Events Database, Morocco Country Profile, www.emdat.be
Morocco First National Communication, Executive Summary, op. cit., p. 11.
177
-
-
Improvement of the productivity and the durability of the farming systems by the
application and the adaptation of direct drilling techniques in semi-arid zones of
agro-industrial opportunities, in order to fight against desertification and poverty
Changes in agricultural practices including use of selected seeds and choice of
varieties adapted to the climate
Development of techniques to optimize irrigation
Measures to improve land tenure of agricultural land
Incentives and subsidies for skilled farmers who apply rationalization of water use,
improved agricultural practices and use of modern technologies
Training and awareness campaigns for farmers about adaptation techniques,
including adoption of modern irrigation techniques and water saving
Tariff readjustment of the irrigation water by adoption of a pricing based on a
volumetric counting
For coastal zones, adaptation includes the adoption of law that should enable the
implementation of integrated management of coastal zones and their
adaptation to rising sea level:
-
by building dikes or other protective structures,
either by accommodation to the rising waters,
either by abandoning the use of certain coastal zones
For water scarcity, a sample of measures being considered includes:




Education and public awareness about water conservation
installation of individual meters, or by revising the tariff system
Investments in water saving in industry and incentives for water recycling
investments in dam construction and drilling of deep wells.
7.3.3 Qualitative assessment of the benefits of reducing the impacts of climate
change
Climate change can have many negative impacts on biodiversity. For example, in Morocco it
is recognised that it hosts three wetlands of international importance classified as RAMSAR
Sites, namely the lagoon of Nador (Mar Chica), the Cap des Trois Fourches and the estuary
of the River mouth of Moulouya, besides the Gourougou Mountain, that are threatened by
sea level rise. Consequently, the ACCMA Project has developed an action plan for the
integrated coastal zones management in the context of climate change.
Health benefits
The national Plan against Global Warming identifies that climate change may have an
influence on the dynamics of infectious diseases, vector-borne, food-borne or water-borne.
As a consequence, it identifies the development of an epidemiological surveillance system
as a priority to prevent such diseases from spreading without being noticed and promoting
178
development in areas such as hygiene, drinking water and housing, in order to curb their
take-up.
Economic benefits
Adaptation to the threats to agricultural yield from water scarcity, through more efficient
management practices would result in some protection of farm incomes and local
economies. Apart from the need for an inclusive national plan of adaptation, the
government has to create a balance between the water-intensive activities of its modern
industries and support for the poorest sectors of the rural economy.
Similarly, protection of coastal zones through the implementation of an effective integrated
coastal zone management plan for vulnerable areas should help to prevent the damage of
environmental and man-made assets crucial to the tourism industry in Morocco.
Social benefits
Adaptation to climate change can bring significant benefits to the population, especially to
the poor. The quality of life can be generally improved thanks to reduced environmental,
economic and health impacts mentioned above. Adaptation measures can also help
maintaining important public infrastructures in better status.
179
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