Using social media data to explain the widespread success

Social Media Insights for the
Pumpkin Spice Latte
August 2015
Using social media data to explain the widespread success behind one of Starbucks’ bestselling seasonal flavor options.
Infegy
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What’s inside this report
The Starbucks Pumpkin Spice Latte created enormous demand for the
Pumpkin Spice flavor profile of beverages. Using social commentary collected
over the course of the past five years we propose to explain why the
Starbuck’s brand of Pumpkin Spice Latte still towers above its closest
competition.
For many, the decision between branded versions of the Pumpkin Spice Latte is
a combination choice between flavor, brand loyalty, and convenience. What
trends might explain the difference in public perception?
This report provides a quick look at the narrative behind seasonal beverages,
highlighting specific examples of insights available beneath social media
data.
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Photo
credit: LisaaSuender
Flickr
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Contents
Introduction
2
Comparing Affinity by Gender
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Contents
3
Understanding Category Themes
11
Comparing Purchase Behavior
12
Uncovering Consumer Demographics
14
Conclusion
15
About Infegy
16
References
18
Background
Mapping the Competitive Landscape
4
6
Understanding Consumer Perceptions 7
Identifying Geographical Preferences
3
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Background
The Starbuck’s Pumpkin Spice latte has experienced incredible success since its introduction over a decade ago. In
August 2014, Starbucks created a separate Twitter account just for the beverage to improve social engagement and
establish their version as the one true Pumpkin Spice Latte.
In 2013, Forbes highlighted the success of the Pumpkin Spice Latte1, pointing to a Starbucks news release which proclaimed the
company has sold more than 200 million lattes.
You can even follow
Pumpkin Spice Latte on
Twitter!
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Background
At an estimated $4 per latte with more than 200 million sold2, Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte has generated a colossal
$800 million in revenue since its creation. The seasonally limited availability creates anticipation for the drink in the
months preceding its annual release, a model that competitors have been eager to copy.
Demonstrated below in the topic cloud for online conversations related to pumpkin-flavored seasonal beverages, the flavor
on its own is universally loved. Yet, even in non-brand related conversations, Starbucks is the only brand present to a large
degree.
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Mapping The Competitive Landscape
Conversations about pumpkin-flavored beverages begin increasing in
number starting in the July/August months, immediately before their
availability in September.
When it comes to the competitive landscape according to social media data,
Starbucks, Dunkin’ Donuts, and McDonald’s are the only brands with a notable
amount of presence.
Post Universe Spikes from January 2010 through July 2015
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Insight to Opportunity
While social traffic seems to spike for
each brand in the corresponding Fall
seasons, Starbucks’ competitors could
mimic the Pumpkin Spice Latte’s social
advantages to take better advantage of
this area and spread buzz about their
competing beverages.
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Understanding Consumer Perceptions
Despite accusations in 2014 that the products contain unhealthy
ingredients, consumer sentiment for Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte
remains overwhelmingly positive
Insight to Opportunity
While each of the pumpkin-flavored
seasonal beverages is discussed
frequently on social media, sentiment for
Sentiment Perception from January 2010 through July 2015
each brand varies wildly.
Only Starbucks’ Pumpkin Spice Latte
maintains an consistently positive
sentiment value over time.
Analyzing the conversations about
Starbucks’ beverage can help competitors
deploy similar marketing techniques.
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Identifying Geographical Preferences
In analyzing social commentary by US region, several advantages are
evident.
Throughout the Midwest and Western coast, Starbucks and McCafé receive a
significantly higher number of conversations. By contrast, Dunkin’ Donuts has a
much larger concentration of social conversation in the Northeast United States.
Insight to Opportunity
In order to remain a leader of the
pumpkin-spice beverages, Starbucks
should be wary of growing concentrations
that might rival its regional strongholds.
Analyzing data specific to geographies
also provides the potential to uncover
differing taste preferences and brand
weaknesses specific to individual markets
or regions.
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Identifying Geographical Preferences
Dunkin’ Donuts is a national chain, yet the majority of conversations about
the brand occur in the Northeast. By comparing Infegy Atlas results to
Google Maps location data, it becomes clear that this is a result of Dunkin’
Donuts lacking greater retail presence along the Western US coast.
Google Maps
Infegy Atlas
Insight to Opportunity
Just as analyzing data specific to
geographies can uncover differing taste
preferences and brand weaknesses, it can
also aid in pinpointing where to open new
franchises.
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Comparing Affinity by Gender
Looking at the demographic data related to gender, we can see the mostengaged coffee consumers among social media conversation are women.
Insight to Opportunity
Starbucks currently maintains the
advantage in audience gender diversity
across the three major pumpkin-flavored
seasonal brands.
One potential way to increase its market
share might be to attract a more malecentric audience to even out gender
Branded Audience Engagement
Across Gender Lines
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distribution.
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Understanding Category Themes
Combined theme analysis is useful in understanding the deeper themes of
the digital conversation.
In looking at the combined themes for our three brands, over half of
conversations reflected some degree of Expectation. The next three emotions
expressed reflect Taste, Acquisition, and Quality, present in 44%, 41%, and 25% of
digital conversations, respectively.
Combined Theme Analysis of Pumpkin Beverages
Insight to Opportunity
While Expectation, Taste, and
Acquisition are generally the most
mentioned themes by share of voice,
Acquisition and Cost are the most
negatively discussed, at 36% and 37%,
respectively.
This means that 36% of consumers
have stated that they will never buy a
seasonal beverage and 37% have a
negative perspective towards their cost.
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Comparing Purchase Behavior
When analyzed on their own, each brand receives 30-40% negativity
concerning the cost of pumpkin-flavored seasonal beverages.
Interestingly, Starbucks maintains the least amount of negativity concerning
Acquisition (or purchasing) at 27%. Dunkin’ Donuts and McCafé represent higher
rates of negativity at 43% and 40%, respectively.
Insight to Opportunity
Each of the seasonal beverage brands
demonstrates somewhere above 30%
negativity regarding Cost of these
beverages.
Interestingly, consumers discussing
Starbucks’ brand in particular mention not
buying, or never buying, Pumpkin Spice
Lattes to a far lesser degree than for other
brands. This may explain the somewhat
higher consistent post volume and higher
overall sentiment.
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Comparing Purchase Intent
Similar to the Acquisition theme, Purchase Intent is accompanied with
varying degrees of positivity and negativity.
In this category, Starbucks also tends to exceed levels of positive purchase intent
for its competitors. Significantly, nearly a quarter of digital conversation sources
relate to Dunkin’ Donuts and McCafé with commentary indicating they will never
purchase from these brands.
Insight to Opportunity
McCafé customers tend to discuss their
intent to purchase, or not purchase, to a
far greater degree than Starbucks and
Dunkin’ Donuts customers.
Starbucks could use this information to
mirror social strategies deployed by
McCafé in order to capture additional
76%
18%
Purchase Intent (PI)
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69%
37% 31%
24%
82%
PI Negativity
25%
brand momentum, converting a greater
degree of their volume to beverage sales.
18%
PI Positivity
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Uncovering Consumer Demographics
According to a correlation between social location data and U.S. Census
Data, the average Pumpkin Spice Latte consumer has nearly $7000 in
additional household income compared to the general population.
U.S. Demographics Comparison
Insight to Opportunity
Revisiting geographic data, the results for
Dunkin’ Donuts may be influenced by the
concentration of franchises in the
Northeast, which typically has a higher
degree of wealth.
What is clear from analyzing this U.S.
demographic data correlation is that
McDonald’s is failing to attract consumers
Combined Household Income Comparison
of pumpkin spice lattes who have higher
incomes to their particular McCafé
offering.
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Conclusion
When analyzed with proper subject application, online conversations can explain the differences in public perception.
The decision between branded versions of Pumpkin Spice Latte depend on a variety of factors, including geographic
preferences, demographic brand loyalty, and perceived quality or flavor.
The examples in this report demonstrated how online conversation data can be used to:
1. Map the Competitive Landscape
2. Understand Consumer Perceptions
3. Identify and Strategize for Geographical Preferences
4. Compare Brand Affinity by Gender
5. Understand Category Themes
6. Compare Purchase Behavior and Intent
7. Uncover Consumer Demographics
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About Infegy
Contact Us
Since 2007, Infegy's cloud-based technologies have been transforming
huge volumes of commentary into valuable consumer insights.
[email protected]
Infegy’s flagship product, Infegy Atlas, helps brands, agencies, and researchers
understand consumers better and faster through advanced automated analysis
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of online dialogue.
With a focus on translating the voice of the consumer into actionable
intelligence, Infegy Atlas has been utilized to determine what moms think about
sugar content in breakfast cereals, what drives sales for nail polish, and if the
Playstation 4 will outsell the Xbox One.
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Getting Results / Choosing the Best Technology
Beyond volume and sentiment, Infegy Atlas helps researchers get to the heart of what consumers think, discuss, and
how they feel about topics and brands through almost instant analysis of millions of social conversations.
Results you can trust. 93% sentiment accuracy and 97%
recall. Backed by the largest validation test ever published
in the industry.
Context. Deeply understand complex nuances, including
emotions like trust and themes such as purchase intent,
automatically.
Flexibility. Unlimited search queries and data access
going back all the way through 2007, allowing you to
perform more research and pivot more quickly.
Event Detection. Sophisticated statistical analysis of
more than 125 metrics that highlights the key drivers
within conversations and identifies the most important
events.
Audience segmentation. Default and customizable
audience segments that enable users to create social
media focus groups to perform more targeted research
and deeper discovery.
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Speed. Through the API or the UI, return advanced
contextual analysis within seconds of hitting submit.
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References
1. Griswold, Alison. (10/31/2014). Retrieved August 13, 2015. “Are Starbucks Customers Over the Pumpkin Spice Latte?” Slate.
Retrieved from http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2014/10/31/
starbucks_q4_2014_earnings_are_customers_over_the_pumpkin_spice_latte.html
2. Maynard, Micheline. (9/22/2013). “How Starbucks Turned Pumpkin Spice Into A Marketing Bonanza.” Forbes. Retrieved from
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelinemaynard/2013/09/22/how-starbucks-turned-pumpkin-spice-into-a-marketing-bonanza/
Cover Image credit: Nicola. Starbucks - IMG_1196. https://www.flickr.com/photos/15216811@N06/6727994101/in/
album-72157622381527175/
This report was created using Infegy Atlas. Infegy Atlas is a social media analytics and research platform that utilizes proprietary
automated natural language processing technology and Infegy’s in-house repository of online dialogue dating back to 2007.
Infegy Atlas operates on a simple but powerful query language similar to what you would use for a Google search but with more
operators, filters and options. These queries are available upon request.
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