Regional Growth Forecast 2010-2040

Transcription

Regional Growth Forecast
2010-2040
PROJECT STAFF
Jim Kemp ........................................................................Executive Director
Peter Imhof .......................................................... Deputy Director, Planning
Brian Bresolin ....................................................... Regional Analyst, Author
Adopted, December 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
SUMMARY
.............................................................................................................................. 1
GEOGRAPHY .............................................................................................................................. 8
FORECASTS AND METHODOLOGY ......................................................................................... 9
CENSUS DEMOGRAPHICS ..................................................................................................... 22
BIRTHS, DEATHS AND MIGRATION ....................................................................................... 46
SCHOOL ENROLLMENT .......................................................................................................... 48
GROWTH FORECAST COMPARISONS .................................................................................. 66
APPENDICES
1
Santa Barbara County Association of Governments Roster .............................. 70
2
Technical Planning Advisory Committee Roster ................................................ 71
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1, Countywide Population, Employment and Housing Forecasts 2010-2040
Figure 2, Sub-county Population Forecasts 2010-2040
Figure 3, Sub-county Employment Forecasts 2010-2040
Figure 4, Sub-county Household Forecasts 2010-2040
Figure 5, 2010 to 2040 Employment, Population and Household Forecasts
Figure 6, Santa Barbara County Jobs as a Percentage of the Nation
Figure 7, Santa Barbara County Jobs as a Percentage of California
Figure 8, SBCAG Forecast 2010-2040 Employment Change by Economic Sector
Figure 9, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Information, Financial Activities, Other Services
Figure 10, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Professional Business, Education and Health, Leisure and
Hospitality, Government
Figure 11, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Farming, Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing
Figure 12, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities
Figure 13, Population and Job Growth 2007-2040
Figure 14, Population Growth 2000-2010
Figure 15, Proportion of Countywide Population, 2010 and 2000
Figure 16, Population Distribution for Santa Barbara County Regions 2000 and 2010
2000 Census, Total 399,347
Figure 17, Housing Unit Change 2000-2010
Figure 18, Housing Unit Distribution in 2010, 152,834 Total Units
Figure 19, Countywide Race and Hispanic Origin in 2010, 423,895 Total Population
Figure 20, 2010 Countywide Age Distribution, 423,895 Total Population
Figure 21, 2000 and 2010 Countywide Age Distribution
Figure 22, 2010 Countywide Age Distribution Summary, 423,895 Total Population
Figure 24, 2010 Median Age
Figure 25, 2010 Household Size Estimates
Figure 26, Household Size Change 2000 to 2010
Figure 27, 2010 Household Size Estimates for Renter and Owner Occupied Units
Figure 28, Percentage of Renter- and Owner-Occupied Households
Figure 29, 2010 Vacant Units, Seasonal, Recreational or Occasional Use, 3,354 Total
Figure 30, 2010 Countywide Group Quarters Distribution, 17,782 Total
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Figure 32, 2010 Group Quarters, for County Communities, 17,782 Total
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Figure 33, 2010 Countywide Household Types, 142,104 Total
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Figure 34, 2010 Over 65 Living Alone, 14,837 Total
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Figure 35, 2010 Single Mothers with Children Under 18 Years of Age, 8,092 Total
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Figure 36, Comparison of Countywide Births and Deaths, 1990 -2011
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Figure 37, Countywide Net Migration, 1990-2011
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Figure 38, Historical Countywide Enrollment
50
Figure 39, 2009/10 Santa Barbara County School Enrollments by Grade
51
Figure 40, 2000/01 Santa Barbara County School Enrollment by Grade
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Figure 41, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10. Hope Elementary
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Figure 42, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10. Cold Spring Elementary
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Figure 43, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10. Carpinteria Unified
56
Figure 44, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10. College Elementary
56
Figure 45, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10, Goleta Union
57
Figure 46, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10, Santa Barbara High School District
58
Figure 47, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10, Santa Maria Elementary and Joint Union High School 59
Figure 48, Ethnic Distribution of the Student Population in Santa Barbara County, 2009, 65,960 Total Enrollments 60
Figure 49, Historic and Forecast Enrollment Data
64
Figure 50, Santa Barbara County Proportion of Enrollment by Grade 1975-2020
65
Figure 51, Countywide, 2010-2040 Employment Forecast Comparisons SBCAG/CCSCE and California Economic
Forecast
66
Figure 52, Comparison of SBCAG and the California Economic Forecast, 2040 Employment by Sector (1,000’s) 67
Figure 53, Population Forecast Comparisons, SBCAG/CCSCE, California Economic Forecast, and DOF
68
Figure 54, Historic Growth and Past Predictions
69
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1, Employment Forecast and Change by Sector Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Table 2, Ratio of Population to Jobs
Table 3, Population Forecast Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Table 4, SBCAG and DOF 2010-2040 Population Forecast Comparisons
Table 5, Santa Barbara County 2006-2010 ACS Headship Formation Rates
Table 6, Household Forecast Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Table 7, Trend-based Allocation Methodology Subject to Land Use Capacity Population,
Household and Employment Forecast
Table 8, Santa Barbara County Jurisdictions, Total Population
Table 9, Unincorporated Places Population Change from 2000 to 2010
Table 10, Jurisdictions Housing Unit Change from 2000 to 2010
Table 11, Occupied, Vacant Units and Vacancy Rate in 2010
Table 12, Census 2000 and 2010 Housing Vacancy Rate Comparison
Table 13, Percentage of Hispanic Population 2000 and 2010
Table 14, Land Area and Population Density, 2010 Census
Table 15, Annual Enrollment Comparison, 2008/09 and 2009/10
Table 16, Unified School District Enrollment 2008/09 and 2009/10
Table 17, Private School Enrollment
Table 18, Total Public and Private School Enrollment, 2008/09-2009/10
Table 19, 2006/2007, 2007/2008 Inter-district Transfers
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LIST OF MAPS
Map 1, Locations of Incorporated and Unincorporated Communities
Map 2, Santa Barbara County School Districts
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Summary
This forecast is a requirement of the Federal Highway Administration for long-range
transportation planning. Regional Growth Forecast 2012 (RGF 2012) presents forecasts of
population and employment between 2010 and 2040 for Santa Barbara County, its major
economic and demographic regions and its eight incorporated cities. Population and
employment forecasts are prepared for all incorporated cities and the surrounding
unincorporated areas. The county-wide forecast is for 5-year periods between the calendar
years 2010 to 2040. The sub-county forecasts are for 2015, 2035 and 2040. In addition to
forecast estimates, this report also provides additional, related information regarding births and
migration, census demographics, and school enrollment.
The purpose of the Regional Growth Forecast is to provide a consistent forecast to the year
2040 for use in long-range comprehensive planning. The forecast will serve as an input towards
the development of the SBCAG Regional Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities
Strategy, traffic forecasts, air quality impact analysis, housing needs for Housing Elements of
General Plans, and demand estimates for sewer treatment plants and other facilities. Also
important is the use of the forecast as a database for social service agencies, marketing
studies, and analysis of growth-related issues.
The SBCAG Board adopted previous Regional Growth Forecasts in 1985, 1989, 1994, 2002
and 2007. The forecast is updated as new data or policy changes occur to ensure that it
provides the most accurate assessment of future growth. For example, the current RGF 2012
integrates updated data from recent Housing Element and General Plan updates and 2010
Census data. Local jurisdictions modify and revise land use plans and growth management
policies that impact long-range forecasts. Periodic review of these land use and policy changes
is conducted to determine if revisions to the forecast are necessary. Comparison with other
estimates of current population and county-level, long-term population forecasts help track the
accuracy of the SBCAG forecast.
SBCAG hired a consultant, Stephen Levy, from the Center for Continuing Study of the California
Economy (CCSCE), to provide technical guidance and assist staff in the development of countywide forecasts of employment, population and households.
The SBCAG region-wide
employment projections were based on a top-down approach using national and State
projections developed in 2011. The forecast is based on a two-step growth forecast
methodology, involving a county-wide, top-down employment and population forecast in the first
step and the allocation of both employment and population forecasts to the sub-regional level in
the second step, using a bottom-up method considering local General Plan land uses. This twostep methodology is consistent with that utilized by most MPOs and is generally accepted by
State agencies, including Housing and Community Development.
The following figures provide a summary of the county-wide and sub-county population,
employment and household forecasts. Over the course of the forecast period, the county-wide
population is forecast to increase by 96,200 from 423,800 to 520,000 people or 23 percent.
Employment is forecast to increase by 60,000 from 197,400 to 257,600 jobs or 30 percent. The
City of Santa Maria has the highest forecast growth with an increase in population of 41,500
people or 42 percent and employment of 28,700 jobs or 84 percent.
1
Figure 1, County-wide Population, Employment and Housing Forecasts 2010-2040
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Figure 2, Sub-county Population Forecasts 2010-2040
(note dual axis)
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Figure 3, Sub-county Employment Forecasts 2010-2040
4
Figure 4, Sub-county Household Forecasts 2010-2040
(note dual axis)
Summary Points

Job growth to 2040 in the nation, state and SBCAG region will be affected by two broad
trends: recovery of employment lost during the recession by 2015 or shortly thereafter.
After 2020, job growth slows everywhere as baby boomer retirements slow the growth in
the working age population and labor force even with the longer working lives expected
for older workers.

The region has a comparatively high share of employment in agriculture and
government, which are projected to experience below-average job growth to 2040. At
the same time, the region has below-average shares in professional and business
services and internet-related information services, which are expected to experience
above-average job growth.
5

The county has concentrations in leisure and hospitality (tourism) and self-employed
jobs compared to the national average and these two sectors are projected to have
above-average job growth prospects.

The manufacturing job losses, following the national pattern, are the result of strong
productivity gains. Actual production and export levels are expected to increase in the
state and nation, but not enough to offset productivity growth as firms are able to
produce more with fewer people.

A commuting assumption projects the number of net in-commuters will double over the
30-year forecast period from 11,000 in 2010 to 22,000 in 2040, slower than the historical
rate, but still acknowledging limits to how far growth in in-commuting can be feasibly
reduced.

With historically high unemployment rates in the county, and elsewhere, there exists a
resident labor force that in theory will be available to take new jobs as the unemployment
rate declines.

Allocating region-wide forecast population and job growth to the sub-regional level is
based on an approach using a trend-based allocation methodology subject to land use
capacity.

Of all county jurisdictions, the City of Santa Maria experienced the largest population
increase of 29 percent or 22,130 people, from 77,423 in 2000 to 99,553 in 2010.

The unincorporated area of the county currently constitutes the largest proportion of the
2010 Census population of 423,895 people with 31 percent, followed by the City of
Santa Maria with 24 percent.

North County regions increased from 50 percent of the total population in 2000 to 52
percent in 2010.

Between 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic-origin population showed a significant increase.
County-wide, its proportion increased from 34 percent to 43 percent of the total
population.

A comparison of the age distribution over the 10-year period from 2000 and 2010 shows
an overall increase in the population 45 years and over, which includes members of the
baby boomer generation approaching retirement.

The total number of births has declined somewhat during the 1990 to 2010 period,
ranging from over 6,500 to 5,500 annually. The number of deaths is more constant,
ranging from between 2,500 to 3,000 annually. As a result, the annual natural increase
in the population has ranged from a high of 4,000 to a low of 2,500 and is approximately
3,000 currently.

Net migration has been negative for the majority of reporting years and most recently
reflects the loss of jobs in the economic slowdown as workers left the area for other
employment opportunities elsewhere.
6

Continued school enrollment decline in the South Coast suggests that young families
may be migrating out of the area. If they continue to leave the South Coast, family size
and the subsequent number of overall births would decline to some extent as well.

Grade level enrollment in the 2009/10 school year shows the kindergarten level as the
highest of all other grades. The increase in kindergarten enrollment is occurring
predominantly in North County schools, for example, Santa Maria Elementary increased
35 percent over the 2000 to 2010 period, while Santa Barbara Elementary increased by
1.4 percent and other South Coast schools declined.

Enrollment between the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 academic years increased countywide by 40 students, from 65,920 to 65,960, an increase of 246 students in North County
school districts and a decrease in South Coast school districts by 206 students, over this
two-year period down from an all-time high of 67,500 students in the 2003/2004
academic year.

According to Carpinteria student transfer data, approximately 250 Carpinteria students
reside in Ventura County jurisdictions, representing children of parents who still work in
the area but have moved to obtain more affordable housing.

In the North County, the Santa Maria Bonita School District continues to increase
enrollment, suggesting that families are moving into the area and/or new births are
contributing to the new student enrollments.

Future school enrollment is forecast by the Department of Finance to experience a
gradual increase of 2,165 students from 65,960 in 2010 to 68,175 in 2020. High school
graduates are forecasted to decrease by 224 students from 4,287 in 2010 to 4,063 in
2020.

The SBCAG employment and population forecasts compare favorably with other
forecasts.
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Geography
The county boundaries are identical to the Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Lompoc Metropolitan
Statistical Area (MSA), including the Channel Islands, which together comprise nearly 2,750
square miles of land and inland water area. Approximately rectangular in shape, Santa Barbara
County is bordered on the north by San Luis Obispo County, on the east by Ventura County,
and on the south and west by 107 miles of Pacific coastline. Much of the county is
mountainous. The Santa Ynez, San Rafael and Sierra Madre mountains extend in a
predominately east-west direction. Within the county, there are numerous fertile agricultural
areas, including the Santa Maria, Cuyama, Lompoc, and Santa Ynez Valleys, and the southeast
coastal plain. These areas, which include most of the developed land, also accommodate the
majority of the population. Los Padres National Forest, in the eastern part of the county, covers
approximately 44 percent of the total county area. Vandenberg Air Force Base is in the Lompoc
region, while UCSB is on the South Coast.
“North County” refers to the area west and north of Gaviota and includes the Lompoc, Santa
Maria, Santa Ynez and Cuyama valleys. “South Coast” refers to the Goleta, Santa Barbara,
and Carpinteria coastal plain. The forecasts are prepared for the eight incorporated cities and
the adjacent unincorporated areas surrounding them.
The following map provides the geographical locations of the cities referenced in this report and
the surrounding unincorporated communities.
Map 1, Locations of Incorporated and Unincorporated Communities
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Forecast Methodology
The forecast is based on a two-step growth forecast methodology, involving a County-wide, topdown employment and population forecast in the first step and allocation of both employment
and population forecasts to the sub-regional level, using a bottom-up method considering local
General Plan land uses, in the second step. This two-step methodology is consistent with that
utilized by most MPOs and is generally accepted by State agencies, including Housing and
Community Development.
At the request of the SBCAG Technical Planning Advisory Committee, SBCAG hired a
consultant, the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE), to provide
technical guidance and assist staff in the development of County-wide forecasts. CCSCE was
founded in 1969 to provide an independent assessment of economic and demographic trends in
California and its major economic regions (for more information, see CCSCE - Center for
Continuing Study of the California Economy). Stephen Levy, CCSCE’s founder and director,
holds degrees in economics from MIT and Stanford University and is a leading economist and
recognized expert on long-term trends in California.
SBCAG staff, with Stephen Levy’s input, assistance and guidance as well as review by the
SBCAG Technical Planning Advisory Committee completed the first step of the regional growth
forecast: the development of region-wide employment, population and household forecasts. In
the second step of the regional growth forecast, these region-wide forecasts were allocated subregionally using a trend-based approach limited by land use capacity as determined by local
land use plans.
The Santa Barbara County employment forecast follows the CCSCE methodology, which
determines the County’s share of California statewide employment forecasts and national
trends. The population forecast is based on the ratio of population to jobs predicted by the
employment forecast, while considering assumptions for increased net commuting (in- minus
out-commuting) and excess labor force due to current high unemployment. The household
forecast is based on application of household headship rates (the rates at which new
households are formed) to the population forecast. The County-wide population and household
forecasts depend on two important policy and technical assumptions regarding net incommuting and absorption of excess labor force that are discussed later.
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The following summary figure shows the employment, population and household forecasts to
2040, based on these assumptions.
Figure 5, 2010 to 2040 Employment, Population and Household Forecasts
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Employment Forecast
The SBCAG region-wide employment projections were based on national and State projections
developed in 2011 using the following inputs and steps:

A national projection of total employment was based on a new post-2010 Census set of
U.S. population projections by age and sex with updated immigration assumptions
developed by John Pitkin and Dowell Myers of the Population Dynamics Research
Group at USC. Their findings and assumptions are described at
http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/futures/.

National population projections were combined with projections of labor force
participation rates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics to develop a national
projection of total employment to 2040. CCSCE developed the industry detail (i.e.,
manufacturing, agriculture, etc.) based on available national forecasts.

California employment projections were developed using CCSCE’s long-term projection
model, which analyzes the share of U.S. job growth that will be located in California by
detailed industry.

SBCAG projections were developed assuming that each major industry in the SBCAG
area would generally follow the projected state growth path. As a result, the final job
projections depend on the structure of employment in the SBCAG region and the
projected growth for each industry in the nation and state.
Job growth to 2040 in the nation, state and SBCAG region will be affected by two broad trends:

Recovery of employment lost during the recession by 2015 or shortly thereafter. All
forecasts reviewed by CCSCE have the national and state economy returning to full
employment in this time period. Some employment lost during the recession will not
come back in exactly the same industry, but it will be replaced by other jobs. Recovery
from recession makes the 2010-2020 growth rate higher than it would otherwise be, for
example, if job growth to 2020 were measured from the 2007 pre-recession peak.

After 2020, job growth slows everywhere as baby boomer retirements slow the growth in
the working age population and labor force even with the longer working lives expected
for older workers.
The SBCAG region’s share of U.S. employment fell during the early 1990s as a result of the
recession at that time and permanent job losses related to cutbacks in defense spending and
military bases. The region regained some of these losses in the following decade as the state
and region experienced above-average job growth during the latter part of the 1990s.
Since 2002, the region has maintained a relatively stable share of U.S. employment, meaning
that the regional and national job growth rates were similar. The detailed industry job
projections developed for the SBCAG region indicate a slightly higher share of national
employment for the region between 2020 and 2040 compared to the region’s share in 2010, as
the following figures show.
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Figure 6, Santa Barbara County Jobs as a Percentage of the Nation
The region grew more slowly than the state during the late 1990s as the state’s job growth
occurred mostly in the large urban regions with concentrations in technology and foreign trade.
On the other hand, the region was less hard hit during the construction downturn in the most
recent recession so the region’s share grew temporarily between 2007 and 2010. The long-term
projections show the region returning to the share of state employment observed in the period
from 2000 to 2006.
Figure 7, Santa Barbara County Jobs as a Percentage of California
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Table 1, Employment Forecast by Sector Santa Barbara County 2010-2040 (1,000’s)
Economic Sector
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other services, except public administration
Government
Self Employed
2010
18.7
1.0
7.0
11.2
4.0
17.9
2.8
3.4
6.3
21.7
20.9
22.0
5.4
38.1
17.0
2015
18.6
1.0
8.2
11.5
4.4
18.9
3.1
3.8
7.0
25.2
23.8
24.4
5.9
38.8
19.1
2020
18.6
1.0
9.4
11.8
4.7
19.9
3.4
4.1
7.6
28.8
26.7
26.9
6.5
39.4
21.2
2025
18.0
1.0
9.7
11.5
4.7
20.0
3.4
4.2
7.7
30.5
28.3
28.0
6.6
40.2
21.8
2030
17.4
0.9
9.9
11.2
4.7
20.1
3.4
4.2
7.7
32.3
30.0
29.0
6.8
41.0
22.4
2035
17.0
0.9
10.3
11.0
4.8
20.5
3.5
4.3
7.9
34.5
32.0
30.5
7.1
42.4
23.3
2040
16.6
0.9
10.7
10.8
4.8
20.8
3.6
4.4
8.0
36.6
33.9
31.8
7.3
43.5
24.1
Total Jobs
197.4 213.7 229.9 235.6 241.3 250.0 257.6
Employment Forecast Change by Sector Santa Barbara County 2010-2040 (1,000’s)
Economic Sector
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting
Mining
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transp., Warehousing and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional & Business Services
Educational & Health Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Other services, except public administration
Government
Self Employed
Total Jobs
2010‐2040
2010‐2015 2015‐2020 2020‐2025 2025‐2030 2030‐2035 2035‐2040
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
Change
‐2.1
‐0.1
‐0.1
‐0.6
‐0.6
‐0.4
‐0.5
‐0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
3.7
1.2
1.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
‐0.4
0.3
0.3
‐0.3
‐0.3
‐0.2
‐0.2
0.8
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.0
2.9
1.0
1.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
0.8
0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.0
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
1.7
0.7
0.7
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
14.9
3.5
3.5
1.8
1.8
2.2
2.0
13.0
2.9
2.9
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.9
9.8
2.4
2.4
1.1
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.9
0.5
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2
5.4
0.7
0.7
0.8
0.8
1.3
1.1
7.0
2.1
2.1
0.6
0.6
0.9
0.8
60.1
16.2
13
16.2
5.7
5.7
8.7
7.6
Economic Sector Growth Assumptions
The Santa Barbara County region has a different job composition by economic sector compared
to the state and nation, which explains the trends in overall job growth. The region has a
comparatively high share of employment in agriculture and government, which, compared to the
previous state growth rates, are projected to experience below-average job growth to 2040. At
the same time, the region has below-average shares in professional and business services and
internet-related information services, which are expected to experience above-average job
growth.
On the other hand, the region has higher concentrations in leisure and hospitality (tourism) and
self-employed jobs compared to the national average and these two sectors are projected to
have above-average job growth prospects.
The region, like the state and nation, will experience some initial recovery of the employment in
retail trade and finance lost during the most recent recession, but will experience slow job
growth in these sectors in later years as technology and internet shopping constrain job growth.
The region is expected to show a small recovery in manufacturing employment before the longterm trend of declining job levels returns in the years between 2020 and 2040.
The manufacturing job losses, following the national pattern, are the result of strong productivity
gains. Actual production and export levels are expected to increase in the state and nation, but
not enough to offset productivity growth as firms are able to produce more with fewer people.
Figure 8, SBCAG Forecast 2010-2040 Employment Change by Economic Sector
14
The following figures show countywide historic employment growth from 1990 to 2010 by
economic sectors. The farming sector employment continues to increase both short and long
term, as do the government and health care sectors. Due to the most recent recession, a
number of sectors have experienced short-term declines, including manufacturing, construction,
education, leisure and hospitality, financial, professional and business services, among others.
Figure 9, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Information, Financial Activities, Other Services
Figure 10, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Professional Business, Education and Health,
Leisure and Hospitality, Government
15
Figure 11, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Farming, Mining, Construction, and Manufacturing
Figure 12, 1990-2010 Sector Growth, Wholesale/Retail Trade, Transportation,
Warehousing, Utilities
16
Population Forecast Methodology and Assumptions
The SBCAG population was projected using a ratio of population to employment based on
CCSCE figures and the CCSCE employment forecast. The table below shows the ratio of
population to employment for 1990, 2000, 2007 and CCSCE’s projected ratios for 2040. The
2010 ratio is omitted because, with high unemployment, 2010 is not an equilibrium year and
does not help to assess future years.
The California and SBCAG projections for 2040 initially assume that their
population/employment ratios will change by the same amount as the national change. This is
equivalent to assuming no increase for in-commuting or that all new jobs are filled by people
who live in the region.
The basic trend between 2007 and 2040 is that employment grows more slowly than population
as a result of the large wave of baby boomer retirements, with retirees continuing to reside
locally.
The table below shows that California has a higher population/job ratio compared to the nation
as a result of the higher birth rate and the resulting additional children. The SBCAG region has
a ratio that is closest to the national average, but the gap shrank between 1990 and 2007 as a
result of the growing in-commute.
Table 2, Ratio of Population to Jobs
U.S.
CA
SBCAG
1990
2.041
2.111
2.081
2000
1.953
2.087
2.008
2007
2.008
2.125
2.018
2040
2.133
2.250
2.143
Using these ratios, the calculated 2040 SBCAG population consistent with the forecasted
257,600 jobs would be a population of 552,000.
The population and job growth rates for 2007-2040 calculated using these ratios are shown
below.
Figure 13, Population and Job Growth 2007-2040
17
Two important assumptions must be discussed with respect to the population forecast: net incommuting and excess labor force absorption.
Net In-Commuting
The population forecast requires an assumption regarding net in-commuting. The assumption
about net in-commuting concerns how many people working in the region will also live in the
region and relates to jobs/housing balance. If, for example, SBCAG were to assume that
10,000 of the added jobs would be filled by residents living outside the county and that average
household size for these workers would be 3.0 persons/per household, then that would reduce
the county resident population in 2040 by 30,000.
SBCAG staff considered a range of options concerning net in-commuting, including: (1) no net
increase in in-commuters, (2) in-commuting increasing at a constant proportion based on
current in-commuting, and (3) in-commuting doubling over the study period. Historically, in
Santa Barbara County, in-commuters have more than doubled in the 20-year 1990-to-2010
timeframe from 5,000 to 11,000. The existing population projections developed by Department
of Finance for Santa Barbara County appear to assume a continuation of increasing levels of incommuting such that an increasing number of regional jobs will be filled by residents living
outside the region. In the previous SBCAG forecast, adopted in 2007, there was also an implicit
commute assumption of approximately 36,000 in 2040.
Given the growth in net in-commuting that occurred over the last 20 years, it is probably
unrealistic to assume that net in-commuting can be held constant at current levels for the next
30 years. Fundamental differences in housing affordability will still result in workers locating
outside the region and commuting in. While improving the jobs/housing balance is desirable,
some increase in net in-commuting is almost inevitable and must be taken into account. A
commuting assumption projects that the number of net in-commuters will double over the 30year forecast period from 11,000 in 2010 to 22,000 in 2040, slower than the historical rate, but
still acknowledging limits to how far growth in in-commuting can be feasibly reduced. This
assumption is used in SBCAG’s calculation of County-wide regional growth.
Excess Labor Force
The population projection also must make an assumption about the currently unemployed
excess labor force. With historically high unemployment rates in the county, and elsewhere,
there exists a resident labor force that in theory will be available to take new jobs as the
unemployment rate declines. This labor force will fill some of the new jobs and reduce the
short-term demand for new in-commuting workers and the population and household growth
otherwise associated with these new jobs. The excess labor force assumption includes a
reduction of the unemployment rate from 9.4% in 2010 to 7.5% in 2015 and 5.5% in 2020. This
assumption results in absorption over this period of an excess resident labor force of
approximately 7,100 workers.
18
Population Forecast
The resulting population forecast, based on the population to employment ratios, and including
the commuting assumption and the excess resident labor force, is shown below.
Table 3, Population Forecast Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Forecast Year
Population
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
423,800
428,614
445,891
470,445
495,000
507,482
519,965
Assumptions: Doubling of commuters and use of excess resident labor force.
Population Forecast Change Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Forecast Period
2010-2040
2010-2015
2015-2020
2020-2025
2025-2030
2030-2035
2035-2040
Population Change
96,165
4,814
17,277
24,554
24,555
12,482
12,483
The SBCAG population forecast is conservative in comparison with the most recent interim
forecasts produced by the Department of Finance and with the previous SBCAG forecast in the
short term to 2025 as compared in the following table. The differences in the forecasts are due
to their varying methodologies. The previous SBCAG 2007 forecast applied a bottom-up
approach applying housing constraints to population growth. The SBCAG forecast follows a
top–down, employment-driven approach, while the Department of Finance employs a
demographic-based approach using births, deaths and migration.
Table 4, SBCAG and DOF 2010-2040 Population Forecast Comparisons
Population Forecasts
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
SBCAG
423,800
428,614
445,891
470,445
495,000
507,482
519,965
SBCAG 2007 Forecast
430,200
444,900
459,600
473,400
481,400
487,000
492,800
DOF Interim
425,391
432,660
443,934
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
19
Household Forecast
To determine the countywide household forecast, forecast population growth is disaggregated
into age and race using the Department of Finance forecast age, race data. (Hispanic Origin is
considered an ethnicity, not a race and is treated as a separate category.) This step is done so
that the SBCAG household forecast makes assumptions consistent with the Department of
Finance regarding future race and age distributions, which have an influence on future
household formation.
The population by age and race for the various forecast periods is then applied to Santa
Barbara County-specific age and race household headship formation rates from the 2006-2010
American Community Survey. These are the rates at which new households are formed, a
method that is used by Department of Finance and others. The headship formation rates
multiplied by the household population (minus group quarters) give an estimate of household
demand.
Table 5, Santa Barbara County 2006-2010 ACS Headship Formation Rates
SB County Headship Rates
Other
Mixed
Race
Age
Total
White
Only
15-24
0.128193
0.159789
0.083035 0.090635
0.160968
25-34
0.389536
0.457935
0.253025 0.348125
0.366251
35-44
0.478574
0.509246
0.334684 0.453995
0.494866
45-54
0.538998
0.557183
0.602389 0.510952
0.491395
55-64
0.561934
0.596292
0.479475 0.496631
0.424143
65-74
0.593537
0.624546
0.715200 0.472754
0.524206
75+
0.6322
0.6633
Black
0.6943
Hispanic
0.5078
0.5204
Table 6, Household Forecast Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Forecast Year
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Household Forecast
142,100 143,500 149,900 159,600 170,200 177,400 183,600
Household Forecast Change Santa Barbara County 2010-2040
Forecast Period
Household Change
20102040
41,500
20102015
1,400
20152020
6,400
20
20202025
9,100
20252030
11,200
20302035
7,200
20352040
6,200
Sub-regional Allocation
Allocating region-wide forecast population and job growth to the sub-regional level is based on
an approach using a trend-based allocation methodology subject to land use capacity. In the
absence of other policy or market changes, it is reasonable to expect that past growth trends
will continue into the future, subject only to existing land use constraints. The land use
constraints are determined by the local jurisdictions’ general plan capacity and integrated into
the SBCAG land use model. The forecast periods for the sub-regional allocation are 2020,
2035 and 2040, which coincide with the SBCAG Regional Transportation Plan. Note that the
growth resulting from the UCSB Long Range Development Plan is allocated to the South Coast
Unincorporated area, increasing the past growth trend in population for that area. A significant
proportion of the UCSB population growth is in group quarters, which are not considered
households.
Table 7, Trend-based Allocation Methodology Subject to Land Use Capacity
Population, Household and Employment Forecast
2010
2020
2035
2040
Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Population Households Employment
Santa Maria City
99,989
27,079
34,333 108,839
30,060
49,800 135,071
39,230
59,934 141,529
41,512
63,010
Guadalupe City
7,080
1,810
686
7,501
1,952
723
9,309
2,584
1,729
9,660
2,708
1,754
Solvang City
5,230
2,167
3,364
5,333
2,202
3,538
5,922
2,408
3,547
5,958
2,421
3,547
Buellton City
4,811
1,755
1,884
5,550
2,003
3,877
7,088
2,540
3,980
7,403
2,652
3,980
Lompoc City
42,092
13,242
10,686
42,100
13,246
11,643
46,975
14,949
12,765
47,723
15,213
12,777
Goleta City
29,824
10,880
21,120
29,954
10,924
25,247
33,912
12,307
25,285
34,588
12,546
25,297
Santa Barbara City
87,396
34,996
62,912
87,813
35,112
64,597
94,876
37,578
66,449
96,000
37,976
66,667
Carpinteria City
13,029
4,756
6,075
13,284
4,841
6,666
13,825
5,030
6,693
13,893
5,054
6,693
Santa Maria Unincorporated
32,737
11,642
6,345
32,751
11,647
7,759
39,244
13,917
8,849
39,829
14,123
10,220
Guadalupe Unincorporated
265
93
283
271
95
283
320
112
296
388
136
296
Cuyama Unincorporated
1,241
447
366
1,241
447
366
1,484
532
366
1,507
540
366
Solvang‐Santa Ynez Unincorporated
12,633
4,761
7,558
12,646
4,764
7,944
15,110
5,625
10,036
15,426
5,736
11,658
Lompoc Unincorporated
15,652
5,407
9,449
15,652
5,407
9,833
18,652
6,455
10,563
18,949
6,560
11,244
Santa Barbara Unincorporated
67,216
21,185
24,754
78,320
23,299
27,071
80,913
24,204
27,628
82,161
24,645
27,661
Carpinteria Unincorporated
4,689
1,907
2,292
4,700
1,911
2,524
4,865
1,968
2,588
4,996
2,014
2,588
Total Unincorporated
134,433
45,442
51,047 145,581
47,570
55,779 160,588
52,813
60,324 163,257
53,754
64,032
Total County
423,885
142,127
192,107 445,955
147,910
221,870 507,564
169,439
240,706 520,011
173,835
247,757
Notes: Includes the UCSB Long Range Plan Population growth of 11,105, household growth of 2,113 and employment growth of 1,634 Subregional forecast does not included self‐employed growth of approximately 7,000 that is in the countywide forecast. The 2010 employment baseline consists of the InfoUSA address based employment that is approximately 5,000 less than the countywide total.
Subregional Household forecast is calculated by dividing population growth by census 2010 household size. Jurisdiction
Population, Household and Employment Forecast Change
Jurisdiction
2010‐ 2020 Change
2020‐2035 Change
2035‐2040 Change
2010‐2040 Change
Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Population Households Employment Population Households Employment
Santa Maria City
8,850
2,981
15,467
26,232
9,170
10,135
6,458
2,282
3,075
41,540
14,433
28,677
Guadalupe City
421
142
37
1,808
632
1,006
351
124
25
2,580
898
1,068
Solvang City
104
35
174
588
206
9
37
13
0
729
254
183
Buellton City
738
248
1,993
1,538
537
103
315
111
0
2,592
897
2,095
Lompoc City
8
4
957
4,875
1,702
1,121
748
264
13
5,631
1,971
2,091
Goleta City
129
44
4,126
3,958
1,383
38
676
239
13
4,763
1,666
4,177
Santa Barbara City
417
116
1,686
7,062
2,466
1,851
1,125
397
218
8,604
2,980
3,755
Carpinteria City
255
85
591
541
189
27
68
24
0
864
298
618
Santa Maria Unincorporated
14
5
1,414
6,493
2,270
1,090
585
206
1,372
7,092
2,481
3,875
Guadalupe Unincorporated
6
2
0
49
17
13
68
24
0
123
43
13
Cuyama Unincorporated
0
0
0
243
85
0
23
8
0
266
93
0
Solvang‐Santa Ynez Unincorporated
13
3
386
2,464
861
2,091
317
112
1,622
2,794
975
4,100
Lompoc Unincorporated
0
0
384
3,000
1,049
731
297
105
680
3,297
1,153
1,795
Santa Barbara Unincorporated
11,104
2,114
2,317
2,593
905
524
1,248
441
33
14,945
3,460
2,907
Carpinteria Unincorporated
11
4
231
165
57
64
131
46
0
307
107
295
Total Unincorporated
11,148
2,128
4,732
15,008
5,243
4,512
2,669
942
3,707
28,824
8,312
12,985
Total County
22,070
5,783
29,763
61,609
21,529
18,803
12,447
4,396
7,051
96,126
31,708
55,650
21
Census Demographic Trends
Population
Overall, Santa Barbara County population increased by 6 percent, or 24,548 people, from
399,347 in 2000 to 423,895 in 2010. Of all county jurisdictions, the City of Santa Maria
experienced the largest population increase of 29 percent or 22,130 people, from 77,423 in
2000 to 99,553 in 2010. The smaller Cities of Buellton and Guadalupe also experienced a
significant population increase of 26 and 25 percent, respectively. The Cities of Carpinteria and
Santa Barbara experienced a population decline of -8 and -1 percent respectively. 90% of the
county’s population growth occurred in the City of Santa Maria.
Table 8, Santa Barbara County Jurisdictions, Total Population
County / City
April 1, 2010
Change
% Change
399,347
423,895
24,548
6%
3,828
4,828
1,000
26%
Carpinteria
14,194
13,040
-1,154
-8%
Goleta (1)
28,788
29,888
1,100
4%
Guadalupe
5,659
7,080
1,421
25%
Lompoc
41,103
42,434
1,331
3%
Santa Barbara
89,600
88,410
-1,190
-1%
Santa Maria
77,423
99,553
22,130
29%
5,332
5,245
-87
-2%
133,420
133,417
-3
0%
Santa Barbara County
Buellton
Solvang
Unincorporated
April 1, 2000
(1) City incorporated after 2000 Census. 2000 Census data not available, however an estimate from the City of Goleta is substituted
Figure 14, Population Growth 2000-2010
22
An analysis of the 2010 population distribution indicates that the unincorporated area of the
county constitutes the largest proportion of the 423,895 total population with 31 percent,
followed by the City of Santa Maria with 24 percent. The City of Santa Maria’s proportion
increased from 19 to 24 percent over the 10-year census period. The unincorporated total
decreased from 33 to 31 percent. Both the Cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria declined in
their proportion by several percent.
Figure 15, Proportion of Countywide Population, 2000 and 2010
23
The unincorporated total can be disaggregated into individual unincorporated places to provide
more detail. Some of the communities that indicate population increases over the 10-year
period include Isla Vista, Los Alamos, Mission Hills and Vandenberg Village. Communities that
decreased in population include Mission Canyon, Montecito, Toro Canyon and Vandenberg Air
Force Base. Communities that were newly designated by the Census Bureau and so only have
a 2010 estimate include the communities of Ballard, Casmalia, Cuyama and New Cuyama,
Garey, Los Olivos and Sisquoc.
Table 9, Unincorporated Places Population Change from 2000 to 2010
Unincorporated
Place
Isla Vista
Total Population
2000
2010
Change, 2000-2010
Number
Percent
21,069
23,096
2,027
10%
Los Alamos
1,372
1,890
518
38%
Mission Canyon
2,610
2,381
(229)
-9%
Mission Hills
3,142
3,576
434
14%
Montecito
10,000
8,965
(1,035)
-10%
Orcutt
28,830
28,905
75
0%
Santa Ynez
4,584
4,418
(166)
-4%
Summerland
1,545
1,448
(97)
-6%
Toro Canyon
1,697
1,508
(189)
-11%
Vandenberg AFB
6,151
3,338
(2,813)
-46%
Vandenberg Village
5,802
6,497
695
12%
Ballard
N/A
467
Casmalia
N/A
138
Cuyama
N/A
57
Garey
N/A
68
Los Olivos
N/A
1,132
New Cuyama
N/A
517
Sisquoc
N/A
183
Note: Unincorporated Goleta Valley did not meet census criteria to be designated as a place.
24
Aggregating the census estimates into regions indicates an increase in the distribution of
population to North County versus the South Coast over the 2000 to 2010 period. North County
regions increased from 50 percent of the total population in 2000 to 52 percent in 2010. The
South Coast declined proportionately.
Figure 16, Population Distribution for Santa Barbara County Regions 2000 and 2010
2000 Census, Total 399,347
2010 Census Total, 423,895
North County lies north of Gaviota to the San Luis Obispo County Line, and the South Coast area refers to the area south of Gaviota
to the Venture County Line.
25
Housing Units
A comparison of the change in housing units over the 2000 to 2010 period indicates the largest
numerical increase in the City of Santa Maria of 5,447 units and the largest percentage increase
in the City of Guadalupe of 30 percent. The City of Carpinteria experienced a decline of 35
units or -1 percent. The countywide increase is 9,922 units or 7 percent.
Table 10, Jurisdictions’ Housing Unit Change from 2000 to 2010
Jurisdiction
Buellton
Carpinteria
Goleta (1)
Guadalupe
Lompoc
Santa Barbara
Santa Maria
Solvang
Unincorporated
2000 Total
Units
142,901
1,483
5,464
10,000
1,450
13,621
37,076
22,847
2,288
48,672
2010 Total
Units
152,834
1,845
5,429
11,473
1,887
14,416
37,820
28,294
2,485
49,185
Change
9,933
362
-35
1,473
437
795
744
5,447
197
513
(1) City incorporated after 2000 Census. City of Goleta estimate
Figure 17, Housing Unit Change 2000-2010
26
% Change
7%
24%
-1%
15%
30%
6%
2%
24%
9%
1%
The unincorporated areas had the largest proportion of housing units with 34 percent of the
county-wide total. The City of Santa Barbara had the second largest proportion with 24 percent
of the county-wide total.
Figure 18, Housing Unit Distribution in 2010, 152,834 Total Units
Vacancy Rates
Vacancy rates varied between county jurisdictions, indicating a high of over 12 percent for the
Cities of Solvang and Carpinteria and a low of 4 to 8 percent for the remaining county
jurisdictions.
Table 11, Occupied, Vacant Units and Vacancy Rate in 2010
Jurisdiction
Buellton city
Carpinteria city
Goleta city
Guadalupe city
Lompoc city
Santa Barbara city
Santa Maria city
Solvang city
Unincorporated Total
Total
Housing
Units
Occupied
Units
(Households)
152,834
1,845
5,429
11,473
1,887
14,416
37,820
28,294
2,485
49,185
27
142,104
1,761
4,759
10,903
1,810
13,355
35,449
26,908
2,173
44,986
Vacant
Units
Vacancy
Rate
10,730
84
670
570
77
1,061
2,371
1,386
312
4,199
7.0%
4.6%
12.3%
5.0%
4.1%
7.4%
6.3%
4.9%
12.6%
8.5%
Over the 2000 to 2010 period, vacancy rates indicated a significant increase, likely due to the
comparatively low rates reported in 2000 and the result of the most recent economic recession
and the associated job losses that may encourage doubling-up in existing housing and outmigration for new employment opportunities. The largest increase occurred in the Cities of
Solvang and Carpinteria as well as the unincorporated area of the county.
Table 12, Census 2000 and 2010 Housing Vacancy Rate Comparison
Jurisdiction
Buellton
Carpinteria
Goleta (1)
Guadalupe
Lompoc
Santa Barbara
Santa Maria
Solvang
Unincorporated
2000 Vacancy
Rate
4.4%
3.4%
8.7%
2.4%
2.5%
4.1%
4.0%
3.1%
4.5%
4.9%
2010 Vacancy
Rate
7.0%
4.6%
12.3%
5.0%
4.1%
7.4%
6.3%
4.9%
12.6%
8.5%
Numeric
Change
2.6%
1.2%
3.6%
2.6%
1.6%
3.2%
2.3%
1.8%
8.1%
3.6%
%
Change
60%
35%
42%
107%
64%
78%
58%
60%
179%
74%
Note: The City of Goleta vacancy rate in 2000 is estimated from the Goleta Valley prior to incorporation.
Note: Census 2010 includes sold- or rented-not occupied units as part of the vacant housing stock; Census
2000 treated them as occupied. In most cases, the difference will be less than 0.02%
28
Race and Hispanic Origin
Between 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic Origin population showed a significant increase.
Countywide, the proportion increased from 34 percent to 43 percent of the total population. For
2010, “Other” racial categories constituted only 9 percent of the total and those categorized as
“White” constituted the largest proportion with 48 percent.
Figure 19, Countywide Race and Hispanic Origin in 2010, 423,895 Total Population
Note: For definition purposes, Race and Hispanic Origin are separate categories.
All jurisdictions indicated an increase in the proportion of their population that is of Hispanic
Origin. Growth in the Hispanic Origin population was greatest in the Cities of Goleta, Lompoc,
Santa Maria, and Solvang, experiencing over 10 percent increases from 2000 to 2010. The
Cities of Santa Maria and Guadalupe have the highest proportion, with 70 and 86 percent
respectively. The unincorporated communities in the South Coast have lower proportions, for
example, Montecito at 6.7 percent and Isla Vista at 22.8 percent.
29
Table 13, Percentage of Hispanic Population 2000 and 2010
2010
Hispanic or
Latino
181,687
2000
% of Total
Pop
34.0%
2010
% of Total
Pop
42.9%
Change
9%
Buellton
1,451
25.0%
30.1%
5%
Carpinteria
6,351
43.0%
48.7%
6%
Goleta
9,824
22.0%
32.9%
11%
Guadalupe
6,103
84.0%
86.2%
2%
Isla Vista
5,265
20.0%
22.8%
3%
Lompoc
21,557
37.0%
50.8%
14%
Los Alamos
773
34.0%
40.9%
7%
Mission Canyon
198
7.0%
8.3%
1%
1,137
20.0%
31.8%
12%
605
5.0%
6.7%
2%
6,870
14.0%
23.8%
10%
Santa Barbara
33,591
35.0%
38.0%
3%
Santa Maria
70,114
59.0%
70.4%
11%
Santa Ynez
639
9.0%
14.5%
5%
1,530
19.0%
29.2%
10%
Summerland
192
7.0%
13.3%
6%
Toro Canyon
293
16.0%
19.4%
3%
Vandenberg AFB
616
11.0%
18.5%
7%
1,216
9.0%
18.7%
10%
Ballard
46
N/A
9.9%
Casmalia
58
N/A
42.0%
Cuyama
40
N/A
70.2%
Garey
21
N/A
30.9%
Los Olivos
125
N/A
11.0%
New Cuyama
234
N/A
45.3%
58
N/A
31.7%
Jurisdiction
Mission Hills
Montecito
Orcutt
Solvang
Vandenberg Village
Sisquoc
30
Age Distribution
In the figure below, the countywide population of 423,895 is distributed in five-year age
increments. With the presence of a major university and other educational institutions in the
county, the college aged 20 to 24-year olds are the largest five-year increment with a population
of 43,000 or 10 percent of the total population. The 15 to 19-year old, high school-age group is
the second largest five-year increment with a population of 38,000 or 8.9 percent of the total.
The 25 to 55-year old 30-year increment, representing the primary working-ages, has a
population of 163,168 or 38 percent of the total. The 55 to 85+, 30-year increment of
retirement-age population represents a smaller proportion compared to the 25 to 55–year old
increment, with a population of 99,413 or 23 percent of the total.
Figure 20, 2010 Countywide Age Distribution, 423,895 Total Population
31
A comparison of the age distribution over the 10-year period from 2000 and 2010 shows
consistent proportions for most age groups. The significant differences are for the 35 to 44-year
old age group, which shows a decline of approximately 10,000 from 2000 to 2010 and the
overall increase of the population 45 years and over, which includes members of the baby boom
generation approaching retirement.
Figure 21, 2000 and 2010 Countywide Age Distribution
32
To show change in the proportion of significant population groups, they can be combined to
represent school aged (<19), working (20–54), and retirement aged (55+). These groups are
loosely defined as there are many working age adults returning to school to enhance their job
skills and retirees that may be working to supplement their fixed incomes. The <19 year old
school aged population declines 1 percent, the working aged declines 2 percent and the
retirement age increases 3 percent from 2000 to 2010.
33
A comparison of the median age for Santa Barbara County Communities illustrates the
significant differences in age for county jurisdictions. The county-wide median is age 33.6
years. The highest median age of 51 occurs in Mission Canyon. Other communities with a high
median age (over 45) include the unincorporated areas of Ballard, Garey, Los Olivos, Mission
Canyon, Montecito, Santa Ynez, Summerland, Toro Canyon and Vandenberg Village. The City
of Solvang has a similarly high median age of 45. The lowest median age of 20.7 occurs in Isla
Vista due to the high proportion of college-age students. Other communities with a lower
median age (under 35) include Cuyama, Vandenberg AFB, and the Cities of Guadalupe,
Lompoc, and Santa Maria.
Figure 24, 2010 Median Age
34
Household Size
Household size is an indicator of population density. It is determined by dividing the household
population by the number of occupied housing units. The countywide household size is 2.86
persons/household. The Cities of Guadalupe and Santa Maria have the highest household
sizes of 3.91 and 3.66 respectively. The unincorporated communities of Mission Canyon,
Montecito and Summerland have the lowest household sizes of 2.33, 2.34, and 2.11
respectively.
Figure 25, 2010 Household Size Estimates
35
Household size is also an indicator of housing demand. From 2000 to 2010, the county-wide
household size increased by 0.06 and county-wide population increased as well. The
household size increased for the communities of Isla Vista, Los Alamos and the City of Santa
Maria and the population growth in these jurisdictions was significant. The household size
declined for the Cities of Santa Barbara and Carpinteria and both cities experienced an
accompanying decline in population.
Figure 26, Household Size Change 2000 to 2010
36
Household size can vary by a number of factors, including tenure (renter- or owner-occupied).
For renter-occupied housing, the household size is significantly higher when compared to
owner-occupied housing. Renter-occupied household sizes are highest for the Cities of
Guadalupe and Santa Maria.
Figure 27, 2010 Household Size Estimates for Renter and Owner Occupied Units
37
The county-wide proportion of owner-occupied housing units is 52 percent. Communities with
proportions of owner-occupied housing units over 70 percent are concentrated in the
unincorporated areas of the county and include Ballard, Los Olivos, Garey, Mission Canyon,
Mission Hills, Montecito, Orcutt, Santa Ynez, Toro Canyon and Vandenberg Village. The
communities with the lowest proportion of owner-occupied housing units (less than 40 percent)
are Isla Vista, Vandenberg AFB, and the City of Santa Barbara.
Figure 28, Percentage of Renter- and Owner-Occupied Households
38
The number of vacant seasonal, recreational and occasional use housing units provides an
indication of vacation rental units, which are popular especially on the South Coast of Santa
Barbara County. There are a total of 3,354 seasonal, recreational and occasional use units
county-wide. The communities of Montecito, Summerland, Toro Canyon and the Cities of
Carpinteria, Santa Barbara and Goleta constitute the majority with 2,023 units or 60 percent of
the total. Other unincorporated areas county-wide contain 808 of these units.
Figure 29, 2010 Vacant Units, Seasonal, Recreational or Occasional Use, 3,354 Total
39
Group Quarters
Group quarters are considered housing facilities that have over 10 unrelated persons living
together. These are not considered housing units, but are categorized as institutionalized and
non-institutionalized group quarters. Institutionalized group quarters include correctional
facilities for adults, juvenile facilities, nursing facilities/skilled-nursing facilities and other
institutional facilities.
The non-institutionalized group quarters categories include
college/university student housing, military quarters and other non-institutional facilities. The
majority of the total of 17,782 county-wide group quarters is in student housing. College
dormitories comprise 50 percent of total group quarters, correctional facilities 25 percent,
nursing homes 6 percent, military and juvenile facilities 2 percent and other group quarters 15
percent, respectively. The other category includes emergency and transitional shelters for
homeless that counted 402 persons in 2010. From 2000 to 2010, the group quarters population
increased by 1,165 or 7 percent. The proportion of college/university student housing increased
10 percent and nursing homes decreased by 3 percent.
40
The group quarters population is concentrated in two communities. In the community of Isla
Vista, there are a significant number of student dormitories and in the City of Lompoc there are
a significant number of inmates in the federal correctional facility.
Figure 32, 2010 Group Quarters, for County Communities, 17,782 Total
41
Household Characteristics
Family households consist of a householder and one or more other persons related to the
householder by birth, marriage, or adoption. Non-family households consist of people living
alone and households that do not have any members related to the householder. The countywide distribution of 142,104 households includes 48 percent husband-wife families, 11 percent
female households with no husband present, 5 percent male households with no wife present,
25 percent householders living alone, and 11 percent non-family householders living with other
unrelated persons.
Figure 33, 2010 Countywide Household Types, 142,104 Total
42
The location of the population over 65 and living alone is useful to help identify residents
potentially dependent on social services, transportation and other assistance. County-wide
there are 14,837 persons over 65 and living alone. The communities with the largest number
include the Cities of Santa Barbara and Santa Maria.
Figure 34, 2010 Over 65 Living Alone, 14,837 Total
43
The location of the population that contains single mothers with children is also useful for
identifying those areas with residents potentially dependent on social services, transportation
and other assistance. County-wide there are 8,092 single mothers with children. The cities with
the largest number of single mothers with children include Santa Maria, Lompoc and Santa
Barbara.
Figure 35, 2010 Single Mothers with Children Under 18 Years of Age, 8,092 Total
44
For comparison purposes, an assessment of existing population density is provided. Note that
the density and land area totals include all uses, such as commercial and open space, etc. As a
result, the density calculations are just approximations using all area contained within the
boundaries of the jurisdiction as determined by the Census Bureau in the year 2010.
Table 14, Land Area and Population Density, 2010 Census
Community
Ballard
Buellton city
Carpinteria city
Casmalia
Cuyama
Garey
Goleta city
Guadalupe city
Isla Vista
Lompoc city
Los Alamos
Los Olivos
Mission Canyon
Mission Hills
Montecito
New Cuyama
Orcutt
Santa Barbara city
Santa Maria city
Santa Ynez
Sisquoc
Solvang city
Summerland
Toro Canyon
Vandenberg AFB
Vandenberg Village
Total Population
Land Area
in Square
Miles
Population Per
Square Mile (Land
Area)
423,895
467
4,828
13,040
138
57
68
29,888
7,080
23,096
42,434
1,890
1,132
2,381
3,576
8,965
517
28,905
88,410
99,553
4,418
183
5,245
1,448
1,508
3,338
6,497
2,735.1
1.2
1.6
2.6
0.2
0.5
1.3
7.9
1.3
1.8
11.6
3.9
2.5
1.5
1.2
9.3
0.7
11.1
19.5
22.8
5.1
2.2
2.4
2.0
3.6
22.0
5.2
155
396
3,052
5,043
732
126
54
3,782
5,407
12,492
3,659
489
460
1,569
2,910
968
733
2,598
4,541
4,375
860
82
2,163
730
422
151
1,238
45
Births, Deaths and Migration
The figure below shows the 1990–2010 countywide numbers of births and deaths, and the
difference between the two that is considered the natural increase in population. The total
number of births has declined somewhat during this period, ranging from over 6,500 to 5,500
annually. The number of deaths is more constant, ranging from between 2,500 to 3,000
annually. As a result the natural increase, the population has ranged from a high of 4,000 to a
low of 2,500.
According to the California Department of Finance, while California women’s fertility rates are
anticipated to be lower in the next few years, continued differences in the number of births and
the fertility rates among racial/ethnic groups, especially at younger ages, will be evident. In
general, while births to women 30 and older will continue to increase, births to younger women
are projected to continue to decline. Despite total birth gains, fertility rates will drop for most
ethnic groups. For example, the fertility rate for Hispanics will drop from 2.27 in 2010 to 2.12 in
2020. The fertility rate for Whites will go from 1.71 in 2010 to 1.65 in 2020. Although mortality
rates are not anticipated to change substantially, the proportion of older residents resulting from
the aging of the baby boomer generation will increase the overall number of deaths.
Figure 36, Comparison of Countywide Births and Deaths, 1990 -2011
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of
46
The figure below shows the 1990-2011 county-wide net migration. Net migration has been
negative for the majority of reporting years and most recently reflects the loss of jobs in the
economic slowdown as workers leave the area for other employment opportunities elsewhere.
Figure 37, Countywide Net Migration, 1990-2011
Source: State of California, Department of Finance, County Population Estimates and Components of Change.
47
School Enrollment
The State of California as well as the County Education Office tabulates annual enrollment
characteristics. Recent reports have shown an enrollment decline in some school districts that
warrants a more detailed review. Declining school enrollment has implications for potential
population growth or decline, changing age distribution, workforce characteristics, and other
demographic factors influencing assumptions about future growth.
The County Education Office provides the most recent public school enrollment data to the
State of California Education Office, which maintains a state-wide enrollment database.
Additional enrollment data for private schools was also obtained from the State of California
Educational Data website www.cde.ca.gov, which also provides a detailed breakdown of current
and past private school enrollment tabulations.
Enrollment data by grade level was also tabulated to help identify any trends for individual
grades. This tabulation was done for the following South Coast school districts: Santa Barbara
High, Hope, Carpinteria Unified, College Elementary, Goleta Union, Cold Springs Elementary,
and Santa Barbara Elementary. For comparison purposes, data for the Santa Maria Elementary
and Junior High Districts were summarized in this way as well. Private school enrollment is also
reviewed and then a forecast of county-wide enrollment by the Department of Finance is
provided.
Continued school enrollment decline in the South Coast suggests that young families may be
migrating out of the area. If they continue to leave the South Coast, family size and the
consequent number of overall births would decline to some extent as well. Recent population
estimates from the Department of Finance show a continuing decline in population growth rates
for South Coast cities that seems to confirm this trend.
A past publication, the Economic Community Project’s “Regional Impacts of Growth” study
suggests a similar trend, due to high housing costs: a trend of a continued out-migration of
young families and their replacement by older households with fewer or no children at all. The
subsequent decline in household size could result in a population growth rate decline on the
South Coast.
48
Figure 1 shows the school district locations in Santa Barbara County so that the enrollment can
be compared across regions.
Map 2
Santa Barbara County School Districts
49
Past and Present Enrollment
The county-wide K-12 school enrollment trend has fluctuated over time. In the mid-1970’s, a
dramatic decline in enrollment occurred, decreasing from a high of 56,000 to 44,000 in the early
1980’s. Both employment and population during this period were showing continuing increases.
However, population growth had slowed significantly as compared to past decades. The age
distribution of the population potentially included fewer school age children from the baby
boomer years (1946 to 1964), resulting in lower enrollment levels. This decline in enrollment
ended in the early 1980’s, increasing until mid-2000, since which time a small decline in
enrollment levels has occurred. Recently, this decline has slowed, with enrollment levels
stabilizing at approximately 65,000 students county-wide.
Figure 38, Historic Countywide Enrollment
50
Grade level enrollment in the 2009/10 school year shows the kindergarten level as the highest
of all grades. This high proportion of kindergarten students indicates higher enrollment for the
later grades as the students progress through the school system. As the next figure shows, the
2000/01 grade level enrollment, including kindergarten, was much more consistent across each
grade. The increase in kindergarten enrollment is occurring predominantly in North County
schools. For example, Santa Maria Elementary increased 35 percent over the 2000 to 2010
period, while Santa Barbara Elementary increased by 1.4 percent and other South Coast
schools declined.
Figure 39, 2009/10 Santa Barbara County School Enrollments by Grade
5,500
5,400
5,300
5,200
5,100
5,000
4,900
4,800
4,700
4,600
4,500
Figure 40, 2000/01 Santa Barbara County School Enrollment by Grade
51
Enrollment between the 2008/2009 and 2009/2010 academic years increased county-wide by
40 students, an increase of 246 students in North County school districts and a decrease in
South Coast school districts of 206 students over this two-year period.
Table 15, Annual Enrollment Comparison, 2008/09 and 2009/10
District Elementary Schools Ballard Elementary Blochman Union Elementary Buellton Union Elementary Cold Spring Elementary College Elementary Goleta Union Elementary Guadalupe Union Elementary Hope Elementary Los Alamos Elementary Los Olivos Elementary Montecito Union Elementary Orcutt Union Elementary Santa Barbara Elementary Santa Maria‐Bonita Solvang Elementary Vista Del Mar Union Academic Year 2008 to 2009 Total Enroll Academic Year 2009 to 2010 Total Enroll 108 479 693 198 395 3,608 1,127 980 221 670 399 4,655 5,791 13,226 597 89 115 483 672 181 404 3,697 1,118 972 226 730 392 4,713 5,780 13,787 576 90 7 4 ‐21 ‐17 9 89 ‐9 ‐8 5 60 ‐7 58 ‐11 561 ‐21 1 6.5% 0.8% ‐3.0% ‐8.6% 2.3% 2.5% ‐0.8% ‐0.8% 2.3% 9.0% ‐1.8% 1.2% ‐0.2% 4.2% ‐3.5% 1.1% 9,905 7,752 1,162 9,883 7,608 1,114 ‐22 ‐144 ‐48 ‐0.2% ‐1.9% ‐4.1% 2,463 10,327 275 2,332 10,125 261 ‐131 ‐202 ‐14 ‐5.3% ‐2.0% ‐5.1% 800 701 ‐99 ‐12.4% Total 65,920 65,960 Source: California Department of Education Educational Demographics Unit 40 High Schools Santa Barbara High Santa Maria Joint Union High Santa Ynez Valley Union High Unified Schools Carpinteria Unified Lompoc Unified Cuyama Joint Unified County Education Office Santa Barbara County Office Of Education 52
2009/10 Change % Change The Unified School District data has been disaggregated to show enrollment for individual schools.
This information is useful especially since the Carpinteria and Lompoc Districts have recently been
experiencing enrollment declines, so the additional detail helps to determine which specific schools
may be declining in enrollment. Both the North County and South Coast experienced a small
decline of approximately 2% in the unified school districts with some individual schools such as
Carpinteria Senior High and Middle School and Camino Real Community School in the Lompoc
Unified District showing higher percentage declines.
Table 16, Unified School District Enrollment 2008/09 and 2009/10
Lompoc Unified District Arthur Hapgood Elementary Buena Vista Elementary Cabrillo High Camino Real Community Partnership Academy Clarence Ruth Elementary Crestview Elementary La Canada Elementary La Honda Elementary Leonora Fillmore Elementary Lompoc High Lompoc Valley Middle Los Berros Elementary Manzanita Public Charter Maple High Miguelito Elementary Mission Valley Vandenberg Middle Total Carpinteria Unified District Aliso Elementary Canalino Elementary Carpinteria Family Carpinteria Middle Carpinteria Senior High Foothill Alternative High Rincon High (Continuation) Summerland Elementary Total Academic Year Academic Year 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010 2009/10 Total Enroll. Total Enroll. Change 432
430 ‐2
528
547 19
1524
1,508 ‐16
90
661
577
760
507
684
1462
798
474
244
124
574
31
857
10,327
56 625 653 700 482 663 1,436 746 453 324 149 546 41 765 10,124 392
534
66
542
783
24
48
74
15,094
53
‐34
‐36
76
‐60
‐25
‐21
‐26
‐52
‐21
80
25
‐28
10
‐92
‐203
395 520 71 513 721 17 43 52 14,734 % Change ‐0.5%
3.6%
‐1.0%
‐37.8%
‐5.4%
13.2%
‐7.9%
‐4.9%
‐3.1%
‐1.8%
‐6.5%
‐4.4%
32.8%
20.2%
‐4.9%
32.3%
‐10.7%
‐2.0%
3
‐14
5
‐29
‐62
‐7
‐5
‐22
‐205
0.8%
‐2.6%
7.6%
‐5.4%
‐7.9%
‐29.2%
‐10.4%
‐29.7%
‐1.4%
Cuyama Unified District Cuyama Elementary Cuyama Valley High Sierra Madre High (Continuation) Total North County South Coast Total 184
75
2
261
185 88 2 275 1
13
0
14
0.5%
17.3%
0.0%
5.4%
10,588
15,094
25,682
10,399 14,734 25,133 ‐189
‐205
‐394
‐1.8%
‐1.4%
‐1.5%
Source: California Department of Education, Educational Demographics Unit School District Enrollment
Reviewing selected school districts’ enrollment over time provides a more detailed trend
analysis. It is important to note that inter-district transfers and enrollment at private schools are
also important enrollment indicators that are evaluated later in this section. Also, schools close
and merge. Students are potentially enrolled at neighboring schools. Records from the
California Department of Education show that in the Carpinteria Unified District since 1989 three
schools were merged or closed. Other districts had closed or merged schools as well. For
example, Goleta Union closed six schools, Lompoc Unified closed ten schools, County Office of
Education closed twenty three schools, Santa Barbara Elementary/Secondary closed eighteen
schools, and the Santa Maria Elementary closed thirteen schools.
In some South Coast K-8 schools, enrollment continues to decline. This trend includes the
Hope School District, which had been increasing in enrollment due to a considerable number of
transfer students. The decline in the Hope Elementary School has since leveled off, dropping
only 0.8 percent or 8 students, maintaining an enrollment of approximately 970. Cold Springs
Elementary declined by 8.6 percent or 17 students; it is maintaining an enrollment of
approximately 190 students. The Carpinteria Unified School District has been experiencing
ongoing enrollment declines. During the 2009/10 period, there were 1.4 percent or 205 fewer
students in the district. According to Carpinteria student transfer data, approximately 250
Carpinteria students are currently residing in Ventura County jurisdictions, representing children
of parents who still work in area but have moved to obtain housing at more reasonable costs.
There were no significant drops in student enrollment in other South Coast K-8 schools. There
is no obvious distinction between K-8 grade levels, where one particular grade is losing more
students than any other.
54
Figure 41, Annual School Enrollment from 1992/03-2009/10
Hope Elementary
1,600
Hope Enrollment
1,400
1,600
6
1,400
1,200
5
1,200
1,000
1,000
4
800
800
3
600
600
2
400
400
1
200
200
0
92
92
93
93
94
94
KGarden
95
95
96
96
97
1
97
98
98
K
99
2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
3
4
5
6
99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Cold Spring Elementary
300
Cold Springs Elementary Enrollment
300
250
250
200
200
6
150
150
4
5
3
100
100
2
50
50
0
1
92
93
92
93
94
94
95
KGarden
95
96
K
96
97
98
99 3 2000 2001
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2
97 198
99 2000
2001 2002
2003 42004 2005 52006 2007 62008 2009
55
Carpinteria Unified
3,500
3,000
12
11
2,500
10
9
2,000
8
7
1,500
6
5
4
1,000
3
2
500
1
K
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
College Elementary
800
Collage Elementary Enrollment
700
8
600
7
500
6
400
5
300
4
200
3
100
2
0
1
92
92
93
93
94
95
KGarden
94 95 96
196
97
97
98 3 99 42000 2001
2002
2004 2005
2006
5 2004
6 2003
8
982 99 2000
2001 2002 2003
2005
20067 2007 2008
2009
56
Goleta Union
5,000
Ungraded
4,500
6
4,000
3,500
5
3,000
4
2,500
2,000
3
1,500
2
1,000
1
500
0
K
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
57
In the past, the Santa Barbara High School District increased its enrollment, suggesting that more
established families with older children, who may already own their housing and are not as
susceptible to increasing housing costs, are staying in the area and their children continue to be
enrolled. However, the trend of increasing enrollment has subsided since 2007, showing declines
in recent years. This change also suggests that less established families may be seeking housing
in other, less expensive areas.
Santa Barbara High School District
12,000
10,000
12
8,000
11
6,000
10
9
4,000
8
2,000
7
6
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
58
In the North County, the Santa Maria Bonita School District continues to increase enrollment,
suggesting that South Coast families and families from other areas may be moving to the area
where they can more easily afford housing and continue to commute to their jobs elsewhere.
New births as well contribute to the overall enrollment over time.
Santa Maria Elementary and Joint Union High School
25,000
12
20,000
11
10
9
15,000
8
7
6
10,000
5
4
3
5,000
2
1
K
0
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
59
Ethnic Distribution
The ethnic distribution of the county-wide student population is primarily Hispanic, with 63
percent of the total 69,960 enrollments, compared to 29 percent White. African Americans and
Asians together represent approximately 4 percent of the student population. This is a change
from 2006, when 58 percent of the total 66,695 enrollments were Hispanic and 33 percent were
White.
Figure 48, Ethnic Distribution of the Student Population in Santa Barbara County, 2009
65,960 Total Enrollments
Ethnic Distribution of the Student Population in Santa Barbara County, 2006
66,965 Total Enrollments
60
Private School Enrollment
School enrollment data is currently tabulated for private schools with enrollment of more than six
students and is available from the California Department of Education. All private schools must
file an affidavit with the state. The table below shows the enrollment for the 1999/00 and
2009/10 academic years. Note that in some cases a new school opened or closed in that
period, which can result in a significant percentage change.
County-wide, during the period between 2000 and 2010, an enrollment decline from 6,639 to
5,069, or 1,570 students, was observed. This represents a decline of approximately 24 percent.
During the same period, South Coast private schools declined by 914 students or -25 percent,
while North County private schools declined by 587 students or -20 percent.
California Department of Education enrollment data for private schools typically only lists
schools with six or more students. However, to obtain enrollment information for private
schools of fewer than six students, a special request for individual affidavits of enrollment
was made to the Department of Education. The edited information was provided in a detailed
database for Santa Barbara County schools. The resulting county-wide data for the 2002/03
and 2005/06 academic years shows that there was a decline from 350 to 262 students during
this period at these smaller schools. The South Coast enrollment dropped from approximately
125 students to 100 students.
Table 17, Private School Enrollment
Public School District
School Name
Carpinteria Unified
College Elementary
Goleta Union Elementary
Hope Elementary
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Los Olivos Elementary
Montecito Union Elementary
Orcutt Union Elementary
Santa Barbara Elementary
Cate School
S Y Valley Christian Academy
Coastline Christian Academy
Montessori Center School
St. Raphael Elementary
Laguna Blanca School
Children's House Montessori
La Purisima Concepcion Elem
New Life Christian Academy
Family School, The
Crane Country Day School
El Montecito Early
Our Lady of Mt. Carmel Elementary
Central Coast Preparatory
Pacific Christian
St. Louis De Montfort Elementary
Marymount
Notre Dame
Orca
San Roque Elementary
Santa Barbara Christian
Waldorf School of Santa Barbara
SANTA BARBARA MONTESSORI
61
2008/09
2009/10
2009-2010
Percent
Enrollment
Enrollment
Change
Change
277
106
102
191
242
422
12
136
33
57
255
92
179
31
275
248
217
144
18
138
90
66
152
277
97
89
167
237
381
15
132
23
58
258
72
189
21
282
251
0
148
12
130
76
74
129
0
-9
-13
-24
-5
-41
3
-4
-10
1
3
-20
10
-10
7
3
-217
4
-6
-8
-14
8
-23
0%
-8%
-13%
-13%
-2%
-10%
25%
-3%
-30%
2%
1%
-22%
6%
-32%
3%
1%
-100%
3%
-33%
-6%
-16%
12%
-15%
Public School District
School Name
Santa Barbara High
Santa Barbara High
Santa Maria Joint Union High
Santa Maria-Bonita
Santa Maria-Bonita
Santa Maria-Bonita
Santa Ynez Valley Union High
Santa Ynez Union
Santa Ynez Union
Santa Barbara High
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Lompoc Unified
Santa Maria-Bonita
Anacapa School, The
Bishop Garcia Diego High School
St. Joseph High
Crossroads Christian Junior High
St. Mary of the Assumption
Valley Christian Academy
Dunn
Saint John of Damascus Academy
The Youngblood Academy
Cachuma Elementary School
Covenant Christian School of SY
Abundant Life Academy
Providence Hall High School
Northgate Christian Academy
Breeze Hill Academy
Children's Montessori School
Fountain of Life Christian Academy
Central Coast Learning Academy
Lighthouse Baptist School
Agape School of Christian
Education
Christ the King
Howard Carden, The
Santa Maria-Bonita
Santa Maria-Bonita
Carpinteria Unified
County-wide
South Coast
North County
2008/09
2009/10
2009-2010
Percent
Enrollment
Enrollment
Change
Change
61
301
599
69
222
296
271
0
0
0
0
0
39
6
0
0
0
0
0
53
295
562
0
220
349
228
34
6
14
8
6
75
6
10
12
6
18
8
-8
-6
-37
-69
-2
53
-43
34
6
14
8
6
36
0
10
12
6
18
8
-13%
-2%
-6%
-100%
-1%
18%
-16%
9
6
62
11
6
63
2
0
1
22%
0%
2%
5,424
3,048
2,376
5,108
2,765
2,343
-316
(283)
(63)
-6%
-9%
-3%
County-wide combined public and private school enrollment decreased over the 2000 to 2010
period by 1,507 students or 0.1 percent. North County school districts alone experienced an
increase of 2,231 students or 5.3 percent. South Coast jurisdictions however, declined by 3,160
or 10.2 percent.
Table 18, Total Public and Private School Enrollment, 2008/09-2009/10
2008/09
2009/10
Change
Percent
Countywide
71,344
71,068
(276)
-.3%
South Coast
27,192
26,703
(489)
-1.7%
North County
44,152
44,365
213
.4%
62
92%
0%
Inter-district transfer data provides additional detail showing enrollment variances between
districts. These transfers are for students transferring into the specific school. The data does
not provide the district from which the students are transferring. The Carpinteria Unified (258
students), Hope Elementary (362), Santa Barbara Elementary (417) and Secondary (394)
districts were the recipients of the majority of transfers on the South Coast, while Orcutt Union
(578) received the most student transfers in the North County. In general the transfer policy for
county districts is to allow intra-district school transfers for students within the district but not
from inter-district transfers from students outside the districts.
Table 19, 2006/07, 2007/08 Inter-district Transfers
2006/07
School District Ballard Elementary Blochman Union Elementary Santa Maria‐Bonita Buellton Union Elementary Carpinteria Unified Casmalia Elementary College Elementary Goleta Union Elementary Guadalupe Union Elementary Hope Elementary Lompoc Unified Los Alamos Elementary Los Olivos Elementary Montecito Union Elementary Orcutt Union Elementary Santa Barbara Elementary Santa Barbara Secondary Santa Maria Joint Union High Santa Ynez Valley Union High Solvang Elementary Cuyama Joint Unified Vista del Mar Union Total City Solvang Santa Maria Santa Maria Buellton Carpinteria Casmalia Santa Ynez Goleta Guadalupe Santa Barbara Lompoc Los Alamos Los Olivos Santa Barbara Orcutt Santa Barbara Santa Barbara Santa Maria Santa Ynez Solvang New Cuyama Gaviota Number of Transfers In
12
7 44
40 1
23 43
43 253
258 4
4 6
5 79
31 12
10 254
362 32
22 19
13 53
47 9
14 578
1 417
0 394
0 6
8 5
1 84
60 0
1 46
0 950 63
2007/08
2,351
Department of Finance School Enrollment Forecast
The Department of Finance provides a year 2020 forecast of Santa Barbara county-wide school
enrollment. Note the decreasing enrollment from 1974 to 1980 (56,400 to 45,500) as the
influence of the baby boomers declined. Enrollment increased starting in the late 1980’s
through 2000 from 46,600 to 65,200 students as new residential development and job
opportunities increased the number of families and the population of school-age children.
Future enrollment is forecast to experience a gradual increase of 2,165 students, from 65,960 in
2010 to 68,175 in 2020. High school graduates are forecasted to decrease by 224 students
from 4,287 in 2010 to 4,063 in 2020.
Figure 49, Historic and Forecast Enrollment Data
The Department of Finance enrollment projections are developed using a grade progression ratio (GPR),
cohort-survival, projection model.
64
Figure 50, Santa Barbara County Proportion of Enrollment by Grade 1975-2020
State of California, Department of Finance, California Public K-12 Enrollment and High School Graduate Projections by County, 2011 Series
65
Forecast Comparisons
Employment Forecast Comparison
For comparison purposes, the California Economic Forecast Project projection (by Mark
Schneipp under contract to CalTrans) is reviewed as the only available, viable alternative to the
SBCAG/CCSCE forecast, since only these two forecasts go out to 2040 at the County-level by
economic sector. Both county-wide employment forecasts are very close, with SBCAG/CCSCE
slightly higher from 2020 onward. The California Economic Forecast employment by individual
sector leaves out the category of self-employed. With self-employed workers included in the
SBCAG/CCSCE forecast, the SBCAG/CCSCE forecast predicts some 24,000 more workers in
2020 than the California Economic Forecast Project.
Figure 51, Countywide, 2010-2040 Employment Forecast Comparisons SBCAG/CCSCE
and California Economic Forecast.
66
Employment Forecasts by Economic Sector
While the distributions among industries in Santa Barbara County are different than the nation
and state for some major sectors, the SBCAG/CCSCE projections are in line with national and
state industry growth trends. Also, the specific SBCAG/CCSCE sector-by-sector predictions are
aligned with the California Economic Forecast Project’s 2011 sector-by-sector predictions. The
SBCAG/CCSCE county-wide jobs and population forecasts are in line with actual historic growth
and based on a recognized forecast source.
The following figure compares the 2040 employment by economic sectors for the 2040
SBCAG/CCSCE forecast and the California Economic Forecast. The two forecasts are quite
similar with some differences of varying degree. The forecasts are essentially the same for
construction, information, and government. The SBCAG/CCSCE forecast is higher for
transportation and utilities, financial activities and professional services, health and education,
and leisure. The SBCAG/CCSCE forecast is lower for manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade
and agriculture.
Figure 52, Comparison of SBCAG and the California Economic Forecast, 2040
Employment by Sector (1,000’s)
67
Population Forecast Comparison
Both the SBCAG/CCSCE and the California Economic Forecast Project’s county-wide
population forecasts are very close, with SBCAG/CCSCE slightly higher from 2020 onward.
However, a revised (and to date unpublished) California Economic Forecast shows a reduced
forecast by approximately 20,000. This lower forecast is due in part to an assumed higher
commuting assumption. Also included for comparison are the prior 2007 SBCAG forecast,
which is lower than the current adopted forecast and the shorter term Department of Finance
forecast to 2020, which is right in line with the current SBCAG/CCSCE forecast.
Figure 53, Population Forecast Comparisons, SBCAG/CCSCE, California Economic
Forecast, and Department of Finance
68
Historic Growth Comparison
In the figure below comparing the prior SBCAG forecasts to historic growth in Santa Barbara
County, the SBCAG/CCSCE forecast is in line with actual, historic population growth. The
percent change noted in the figure represents the change from 1990 to the forecast horizon for
each forecast noted. The forecast predicts 0.76%/year population growth over the thirty-year
period to 2040, nearly identical to the 0.73%/year growth actually experienced since 1990.
With respect to jobs growth, the forecast predicts 1.02%/year growth, compared to the historical
0.56% growth from 1990 to 2010. If the five-year period from 2005-2010 including the historic
recession is omitted, however, the historic rate of jobs growth becomes 1.05%, also in line with
growth experienced since 1990.
Figure 54, Historic Growth and Past Predictions
69
Appendix 1
2012 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER – Revised 3/20/12
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENTS
SUPERVISORS
Member
Supervisorial District
SALUD CARBAJAL
FIRST DISTRICT
JANET WOLF
SECOND DISTRICT
DOREEN FARR
THIRD DISTRICT
JONI GRAY (Chair)
FOURTH DISTRICT
STEVE LAVAGNINO
FIFTH DISTRICT
CITIES
Member
Alternate
BUELLTON
HOLLY SIERRA
Mayor
DAVE KING
Mayor Pro Tem
CARPINTERIA
AL CLARK
Mayor
KATHLEEN REDDINTON
Councilmember
GOLETA
ROGER ACEVES
Councilmember
(Vice-Chair)
EDWARD EASTON
Councilmember
GUADALUPE
LUPE ALVAREZ
Mayor
ARISTON JULIAN
Councilmember
LOMPOC
JOHN LINN
Mayor
BOB LINGL
Councilmember
SANTA BARBARA
HELENE SCHNEIDER
Mayor
GRANT HOUSE
Councilmember
SANTA MARIA
LARRY LAVAGNINO
Mayor
ALICE PATINO
Councilmember
SOLVANG
JIM RICHARDSON
Mayor
JOAN JAMIESON
Councilmember
EX-OFFICIO (NON-VOTING) MEMBERS
CALTRANS DISTRICT 5
15th SENATE DISTRICT
19th SENATE DISTRICT
TIM GUBBINS
SAM BLAKESLEE
TONY STRICKLAND
33rd ASSEMBLY DISTRICT KATCHO ACHADJIAN
35th ASSEMBLY DISTRICT DAS WILLIAMS
70
Appendix 2
TECHNICAL PLANNING ADVISORY COMMITTEE
2012 MEMBERSHIP ROSTER
JURISDICTION
MEMBER
ALTERNATE
BUELLTON
MARC BIERDZINSKI (Chair)
Planning Director
ANGELA PEREZ
Assistant Planner
JACKIE CAMPBELL
Community Development
Director
DAVE DURFLINGER
City Manager
ANNE WELLS
Advanced Planning Manager
SARA IZA
Associate Planner
RICHARD DAULTON
Consulting Planner, Rincon
Consultants
TIM NESS
City Administrator
LUCILLE BREESE
Planning Manager
KEITH NEUBERT
Principal Planner
JOHN LEDBETTER
(Vice Chair)
Principal Planner, Community
Development Department
IRMA UNZUETA
Project Planner, Community
Development Department
LARRY APPEL
Director
BILL SHIPSEY
Planner III
ARLENE PELSTER
Planning Director
LISA MARTIN
Associate Planner
JEFF HUNT
Director
Long Range Planning
ALLEN BELL
Supervisory Planner
Long Range Planning
107 West Highway 246
Buellton, CA 93427
(805) 686-0137
CARPINTERIA
5775 Carpinteria Avenue
Carpinteria, CA 93013
(805) 684-5405
GOLETA
130 Cremona
Goleta, CA 93117
(805) 961-7500
GUADALUPE
918 Obispo Street
Guadalupe, CA 93434
(805) 343-1340
LOMPOC
100 Civic Center Plaza
Lompoc, CA 93436
(805) 736-1261
SANTA BARBARA
630 Garden St.
Santa Barbara, CA 93101
(805) 564-5470
SANTA MARIA
110 East Cook Street
Santa Maria, CA 93454
(805) 925-0951
SOLVANG
1644 Oak St.
Solvang, CA 93463
(805) 688-5575
COUNTY OF SANTA BARBARA
123 E. Anapamu St.
71
SPECIAL DISTRICT REPRESENTATIVES
SB COUNTY AIR POLLUTION
CONTROL DISTRICT
MEMBER
ALTERNATE
MOLLY PEARSON
Air Quality Specialist III
ERIC GAGE
Air Quality Specialist I
260 N. San Antonio Rd., Ste. A
(805)961-8800
72

Regional Growth Forecast 2010-2040

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