Argus Tungsten Monthly Outlook

Transcription

consulting services
Issue 14-10 | Monday 27 October 2014
The new Argus Tungsten Monthly Outlook service replaces your monthly Metal-Pages Tungsten
Market report. It is the premium analytical service for the tungsten industry and includes the latest
market trends, insights and forecasts, global trade statistics and a new projects tracker.
Outlook
The month ahead
Tungsten prices are likely to drift lower as consumers continue to buy on a hand-to-mouth basis and supplies appear to be
sufficient. Large stocks on the Fanya exchange in China are a worry for the market.
The next 3-6 months
The tungsten export situation will become clearer once a new WTO-compliant policy framework is put in place. It is possible
that exports of tungsten could rise as export controls are lifted and before measures to increase control of production and
domestic supply help the Chinese government to achieve the same goals in terms of overall exports of tungsten.
12 months forward
More positive economic growth globally should lead to a pick-up in the main end-use sectors for tungsten and demand for
primary tungsten should benefit from consumer restocking and a levelling off in the rate of recycling. Little new supply of
tungsten is due to come on stream in the next 12 months and prices are expected to improve as the year progresses.
Yn/t
Concentrates
Chinese tungsten
concentrate trading
remains quiet and prices
have declined further
after the cut in guide
prices by Ganzhou
Tungsten Association and
China Minmetals. Prices
for wolframite (65pc
grade) were Yn100,000102,000/t ($16,29016,615/t) on 13 October,
a Yn2,000/t decrease
from Metal-Pages’ last
price assessment on 9
October.
OUTLOOK: Softening
Page 1 of 12
150,000
Low
140,000
High
130,000
120,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
2013
2014
2015
Copyright © 2014 Argus Media Group
consulting services
International pricing series
APT
Some Chinese plants have been forced to shut
temporarily by reduced domestic downstream
demand, while exports have risen as European
consumers replenish stocks. Prices for APT (88.5pc
grade, ex-works) were Yn157,000-159,000/t ($25,57525,901/t), with export prices at $325-335/mtu in midOctober, $10/mtu lower on the month.
OUTLOOK: Softening
Ferro-tungsten
Chinese ferro-tungsten prices have eased further after
the National Day holiday as steelmakers have cut their
tender prices and demand remains low. Ex-works
prices for 75pc grade ferro-tungsten were Yn173,000176,000/t ($28,182-28,670/t), unchanged in October.
European prices have dropped by $2/kg since early
September to $38-39/kg on 16 October.
$/mtu
450
APT - EU (left-hand scale)
APT - fob (left-hand scale)
APT - ex works (right-hand scale)
Yn/t
230,000
210,000
400
190,000
350
170,000
300
2013
$/kg
53
51
49
150,000
2014
2015
FeW - EU (left-hand scale)
FeW - fob (left-hand scale)
FeW - ex works (right-hand scale)
47
Yn/t
250,000
225,000
200,000
45
43
175,000
41
39
150,000
37
OUTLOOK: Steady-to-softening
Oxides
Tungsten oxide prices (min 99.95pc, ex-works) were
quoted at Yn182,000-185,000/t ($29,648-30,137/t) on
16 October, 3pc down on the previous month. Export
prices for yellow/blue oxide were almost 11pc lower
at $33,000-34,000/t, despite a 250pc increase in
shipments to Japan in January to July 2014.
OUTLOOK: Softening
Carbide
Chinese tungsten carbide prices remain rangebound
with few transactions concluded. Consumers are
reluctant to purchase tungsten raw materials after the
guide prices were reduced for October. The 99.7pc
grade was quoted at Yn243-248/kg ($39.58-40.40/kg),
while the export price is unchanged at $41-43/kg.
OUTLOOK: Steady
Page 2 of 12
125,000
35
2013
2014
2015
Yn/t
300,000
$/t
50,000
250,000
45,000
200,000
150,000
40,000
100,000
35,000
30,000
2013
Oxide - fob (left-hand scale)
Oxide - ex works (right-hand scale)
2014
50,000
0
2015
Yn/kg
350
$/kg
60
50
300
40
250
30
Carbide - fob (right-hand scale)
200
2013
Carbide - ex works (left-hand scale)
2014
20
2015
consulting services
Price outlook
Highlights
recycling rates and use of second▪ Higher
ary material are suppressing demand for
primary tungsten
aiming to control tungsten output
▪ China
through industry consolidation and the targeting of illegal production and smuggling
to ‘de-administrate’ exports policies for
▪ China
tungsten in compliance with WTO ruling
Prices for tungsten have drifted lower during most of
2014 after rallying briefly in March as demand for primary
tungsten has remained soft despite steady economic
growth. Consumers have been using up stocks built up
in 2010 and 2011, while increased recycling and use of
secondary tungsten has also reduced the need for primary
material. Tungsten has outperformed other similar metals
in the last five-year period and even in 2014 tungsten
prices are higher on an index basis (based on 2000). The
uncertainty surrounding the Chinese government’s future
policy decisions with regard to exports of tungsten is already
having an effect on prices. A lot of consumers outside China
appear to be adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach with the
result that trading is thin and prices have tended to drift
lower as a result.
The fallout from the WTO ruling, upheld on appeal, against
China’s export regime for tungsten and its effect on global
supply will be the main factor to influence the price outlook
for tungsten in the near to medium term. There are two main
trains of thought regarding future exports of tungsten from
China following the WTO decision. One is that the removal
of export quotas and taxes will inevitably lead to increased
exports of tungsten by China and further drops in prices. The
other is that China will introduce other measures, particularly
targeted at production and supply, which will achieve the
same goals as the previous export regime. The most likely
outcome is that exports rise in the short term as Chinese
producers and exporters take advantage of the relaxation
of the regulations governing exports, but in the medium to
longer term exports will be controlled and will probably fall
Page 3 of 12
further as China maintains its policy objectives with regard to
natural resources.
In successive five-year development plans since the
early 2000s, the Chinese government has reiterated and
strengthened its policy with regard to the natural resources
sector. This has not just been directed at the tungsten
industry, but across the whole resources sector and
particularly at other materials where China is a dominant
global supplier and consumer, such as rare earths and
antimony for example. The main planks of the policy are
to preserve the country’s mineral reserves, to improve the
environmental record and impact of the mining/processing
industry, to support domestic downstream industries and to
add value to China’s resources.
It would be illogical if the Chinese government acquiesced
to the WTO ruling without putting in place other measures
that enabled it to continue with its policy objectives to
resources in general and tungsten in particular. In fact, there
are already signs that China is moving in that direction.
The government is introducing qualification standards
for the tungsten industry, one of which is a stipulation
that production capacity must be in excess of 5,000 t/yr.
These new regulations will further strengthen the current
policies for the supply side of the industry, such as mining
licences and production quotas. The more control that the
authorities can exert on the production and domestic supply
of tungsten, the easier it will be to control the volume of
material available for export.
The consolidation of the industry should also help in the
crackdown on illegal mining, which is a central government
Price index comparison
index
1,400
Tungsten
Cobalt
Molybdenum
Nickel
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
consulting services
priority. In the past, the problem has tended to be seen
as one of the Beijing government versus the provincial
authorities. The illegal mining sector is so large (there are
potentially still more than 1,000 tungsten smelting and
processing companies) and some of the companies so
important to the local economies that it has to have had the
explicit or implicit involvement of provincial bureaucrats.
Central government officials have consistently cited
concerns over domestic resource depletion and pollution
and have vowed to take action. As more illegal production
is shut down then the smuggling of tungsten onto the export
market will also be reduced.
The tungsten market is moving back towards a more balanced
position after successive periods of under and oversupply.
Tungsten prices underwent two big upward corrections in
2005-06 and in 2010-11, with APT prices peaking at almost
$480/mtu in June 2011. Since 2011 tungsten prices have
drifted lower as stocks have been rebuilt with two years of
production exceeding demand and 2014 is expected to be
another year of surplus. Recycling has played a growing part
in the tungsten market in recent years, particularly in Europe
and the US, and use of secondary material has suppressed
consumption of primary tungsten. Recycling levels are already
thought to be close to practical limits in Europe and the US,
while there remains substantial scope for growth in tungsten
recycling in China, although the increase in Chinese recycling
rates has been relatively slow.
The outlook for the supply/demand balance for 2015 is a
narrowing of the gap between production and demand and a
slow improvement in tungsten prices. Supply of tungsten is
forecast to grow only slightly with an increase in output from
the Nui Phao operation in Vietnam perhaps counterbalanced
by lower shipments from the US defence stockpile. The
production quota is unlikely to be raised in China and
overall output of tungsten will depend on how successful
the authorities are in tackling unofficial mining. Demand for
primary tungsten is expected to grow by 4-5pc in 2015 after
two years of below trend growth. Recycling rates and use of
secondary tungsten will slow and forecast economic growth
should feed more directly through to increased consumption
of tungsten. Any restocking would boost underlying demand.
Tungsten supply/demand (Chinese production figures)
’000t
100
Surplus/deficit
Mine production
Demand
Average APT price (RH scale)
80
60
$/mtu
500
forecast
400
40
300
20
200
0
100
-20
-40
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Tungsten prices and forecast 2014-15
Product
Unit
Month index
Sep 14
Qtr index
3Q14
Ytd index
2014
Forecast year
2015
Ferro-tungsten min 75% W EU
$/kg
40.48
41.10
44.46
48.00
Ferro-tungsten min 75% W fob China
$/kg
41.83
41.94
45.31
50.00
Ferro-tungsten min 75% W ex works China
Yn/t
176,278
178,384
188,419
189,000
Tungsten APT EU
$/mtu
359.44
364.15
372.47
395.00
Tungsten APT fob china
$/mtu
340.22
352.39
366.04
390.00
Tungsten APT min 88.5% ex works China
Yn/t
162,222
163,816
172,818
185,000
Tungsten carbide min 99.7% ex works China
Yn/kg
250.5
254.33
269.78
285.00
Tungsten carbide powder (3-4micron) fob China
$/kg
42.00
42.96
44.75
46.00
Tungsten concentrates min 65% ex works China
Yn/t
105,167
105,564
114,420
127,500
Tungsten oxide (yellow/blue) fob China
$/t
36,389
37,663
39,768
41,000
Tungsten oxide min 99.95% ex works China
Yn/t
188,611
194,379
211,041
235,000
Page 4 of 12
consulting services
Markets
Global primary tungsten demand is expected to remain
almost unchanged in 2014 compared to 2013 at around
80,000t W despite GDP growth projected to be 3.32pc
(3.28pc in 2013) and improving economic growth in most
of tungsten’s key consuming countries. Consumers have
generally been destocking this year after building up stocks
in 2010 and 2011 and use of secondary tungsten has
also risen, particularly in Europe and the US. Recycling
rates in Europe and the US are already close to their
practical limits so that growth in demand in the main enduse applications should begin to feed more directly into
increased consumption of primary tungsten. GDP growth for
2015 is forecast to improve to 3.85pc in 2015 and a similar
increase in tungsten consumption would add over 3,000t W
to the global total. A certain amount of restocking would add
further to underlying demand.
Consumption of tungsten in China continues to grow at above
the average rate for the world as a whole and it was the only
region that did not see a drop in demand during the recession
in 2009. Official estimates put Chinese tungsten consumption
at just over 38,000t W in 2013, compared to approximately
42,000t W according to the International Tungsten Industry
Association. Cemented carbides do not have as high a
share of demand in China as in other countries, but still
accounted for 48pc of the total in 2013. The steels and alloys
sector is relatively more important and represented 25pc of
consumption, followed by tungsten mill products (20pc), and
chemicals and other applications (7pc). In 2014, although
growth has slowed slightly tungsten demand should still
increase by 4-5pc to between 40,000 and 44,000t W. The
Chinese government is rebalancing the economy but GDP
growth is forecast to remain above 7pc in 2015.
Demand for tungsten by region
t
50,000
40,000
2005
2009
2013
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
China
Page 5 of 12
Europe
US
Japan
RoW
Despite impressive US economic data, including on
employment and consumer confidence, and a Purchasing
Managers’ Index (PMI) at its highest level for over three
years, a presentation given by Global Tungsten and Powders
(GTP) showed little growth in the tungsten market in 2014.
The company blamed a poor first quarter blighted by severe
winter weather conditions and a drop in demand from the
mining sector. Destocking may also have contributed to this
levelling off. GTP forecast that US tungsten consumption
would grow by between 0.5pc and 3pc in 2015, but the PMI
index tends to be a lead indicator for tungsten demand and
a strong first half of the year could increase consumption
further.
In Europe, demand for tungsten was estimated at 18,800t
W in 2013, although consumption of primary tungsten
is around half of this when secondary material is taken
into account. Cemented carbides represent 65pc of total
European tungsten demand; followed by steels/alloys (12pc),
mill products (10pc), and chemicals (8pc). Consumption of
tungsten in the first half of 2014 was well above the same
period last year and, despite a slowing down in the second
half of the year, should be over 19,000t W for the full year.
The European automotive industry, the largest consuming
sector for tungsten in the region, is forecast to grow at 4pc
in 2015. If tungsten demand were to match this growth rate,
total demand for tungsten in Europe could reach 20,000t W,
with primary consumption close to 10,000t W.
The Japanese economy has struggled in recent years and
there are fears that the country may be on the edge of
another downturn because the increase in the consumption
tax in April has reduced consumer spending more than
expected. Demand for tungsten in Japan is estimated at
4,500t W for 2013 and although the first half of 2014 was
strong it is unlikely that Japanese consumption of tungsten
in the full year will rise much from the previous year. The
automotive sector is vital to demand for tungsten in Japan
as it represents around 80pc of consumption. Domestic
car sales are likely to be affected by the downturn in the
economy and lower consumer spending, particularly if a
second increase in the consumption tax in October 2015
goes ahead. Automotive sales to the rest of the Asian region
may counterbalance the decrease in domestic orders,
but it is difficult to see much growth in Japanese tungsten
consumption for 2015.
consulting services
Outlook publication, the WSA expects steel consumption
worldwide to total 1.53bn t in 2014 compared with 1.48bn t
a year earlier. The forecast is then for a 3.3pc increase to
1.58bn t in 2015. Growth in steel demand will accelerate
slightly in 2015 compared with 2014 because of a recovery
in developing countries and improvements in emerging
economies, but growth in China’s consumption of steel will
continue to decelerate.
Auto production
mn
100
Forecast
Commercial vehicles
Cars
80
60
40
20
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
The automotive industry is probably the largest global
consumer of tungsten and is one of the main drivers behind
growth in tungsten demand. Tungsten is mainly consumed
as tungsten carbide in cemented carbide tools used to
manufacture automotive parts, primarily engines. Global
automotive production totalled 87.3mn units in 2013, split
between cars (75pc) and commercial vehicles (25pc). In the
first half of 2014 output was up 3.6pc compared to the same
period last year and is expected to reach over 90mn units for
the full year. Production of all vehicles grew at 9pc per year
between 2009 and 2013, but 2009 represented a year of
particularly low output and growth has averaged just under
4pc/yr since 2010. Car production is forecast to increase
to 72mn units in 2015 and output of commercial vehicles is
expected to reach 24mn units. Total vehicle production of
94mn units would be a 4pc rise from 2014.
The steel industry — more particularly specialty steel such
as tool and high speed steels — is another key market for
tungsten. Global steel consumption will rise by 3.15pc in
2014 and this growth will continue into 2015, according
to the World Steel Association (WSA). In its Short Term
China has been the world’s largest steelmaker and led the
global steel expansion for more than 10 year, but having
expanded its steel sector by 6.1pc in 2013, with support from
government infrastructure investment, growth in China’s
steel consumption is expected to slow to 3.0pc in 2014. The
Chinese government is attempting trying to rebalance the
economy and continues to limit capital investment activities,
although issues still surround China’s debt and real estate
bubble. As a result, in 2015 Chinese steel demand growth is
expected to slow further to 2.7pc.
In the US steel consumption decreased by 0.6pc in 2013,
but the WSA forecasts that 2014 and 2015 will bring a return
to growth. Apparent steel use will grow by 4.0pc to 99.4mn
t in 2014 and by 3.7pc 2015. Steel demand in the EU also
fell, by 0.2pc, in 2013, but now is expected to rise by 3.1pc
in 2014 and by 3pc in 2015, mainly driven by growth in the
construction sector. The recovery in Europe is still only
mild and constrained by high debt and unemployment.
Structural problems in the emerging economies are less
likely to be resolved in the short term leaving them fragile
and susceptible to external shocks. The recovery in global
steel consumption continues, but growth is stabilizing at a
lower rate with continued volatility and uncertainty leading to
a challenging environment for steel companies.
Apparent steel consumption, 2013-15
Consumption mn t
Regions
Growth rate %/yr
2013
2014
2015
2013
2014
2015
139
143
148
-0.2
3.1
3.0
Other Europe
37
38
40
8.5
3.9
4.2
Commonwealth of Independent States
59
59
62
2.2
1.1
3.7
North America and Mexico
129
134
139
-2.4
3.8
3.4
Central and South America
49
51
52
4.3
3.4
2.7
Africa
29
30
33
9.8
4.8
8.4
EU
Middle East
48
51
55
-1.1
5.8
9.5
Asia-Pacific
992
1,020
1,048
4.9
2.8
2.8
1,481
1,527
1,576
3.6
3.1
3.3
World
Page 6 of 12
consulting services
Supply
The outlook for tungsten supply is clouded by factors
outside of the control of most producers. In China, the WTO
ruling on exports of tungsten has forced the government to
concentrate on controlling production and supply, through
quotas and resource taxes, mining licences and company
registration, combatting smuggling and consolidation of the
industry. Outside China, potential new producers of tungsten
are finding their efforts to develop projects held up by a lack
of available financing. Potential financers are put off by a lack
of knowledge or understanding of the market and perhaps
less than transparent pricing, particularly with regard to
future prices. In addition, the amount of funds available to the
mining industry as a whole is smaller and tungsten is a long
way down the queue when compared to other metals that
have terminal markets (a financial market used to manage
future price risk, supported by the option of physical delivery),
such as base and precious metals.
There is little scope for increased production of tungsten
at operating mines. Official production in China is capped
at 89,000t (WO3, 65pc) and the quota is unlikely to be
increased significantly in the coming years. Unofficial
(illegal) output in China responds more readily to the export
market and added 40pc to Chinese tungsten production in
2013 with a similar figure expected for 2014. The authorities
are keen to crack down on illegal mining and smuggling so
that supply from this source is more likely to fall than rise
in the medium term. At Cantung in Canada, the largest
producing mine outside China (until Nui Phao in Vietnam
reaches full capacity), the mine life has been extended to
2017, but production costs are high and the mine is still
close to exhaustion. Nui Phao is the obvious exception as
operations began in 2013 and Masan Resources is ramping
up output to full capacity of 6,500 t/yr WO3.
Official (under quota/licence) Chinese production has
struggled to keep up with domestic demand growth in recent
years. There has been little investment in new mines and
a lot of the existing, larger mines are old, over 30 years
in some cases. Producers are mining at greater depths
and processing lower ore grades so that mining costs are
rising. Other input costs, such as labour and energy, are
also increasing with the result that cash production costs in
China are rising at a faster rate than in the rest of the world.
Illegal or non-quota production is still a major problem that
the Chinese government is attempting to get under control.
According to Zhuzhou Cemented Carbide, tungsten mine
output was 46,000t W in 2013, 41pc over the official quota.
The recent WTO ruling against China’s regime of export
quotas and taxes for tungsten (as well as rare earths and
molybdenum) has intensified the focus of the government
on the production and supply side of the market. Through
the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
(MIIT), China will strengthen its control and management
of tungsten mining, production and distribution. It plans to
introduce revised entrance qualifications for the tungsten
industry and to improve its quota system on production
China: List of qualified tungsten companies, 2014
Province
Company
Products
Fujian
Xiamen Tungsten
Tungsten APT, powder, carbide, semis and cemented carbide
Xiamen Jialu Metal Industry
Smelting
Xiamen Jinlu Special Alloy
Powder, carbide and cemented carbide
Fujian Ninghua Jinjiang Tungsten
Smelting
Jiangxi Jiangwu Cemented Carbide
Cemented carbide
Chongyi Zhuangyuan Tungsten
Smelting, powder, carbide, semis and cemented carbide
Jiangxi Yaosheng Tungsten
Smelting, powder and carbide
Ganzhou Haisheng Tungsten and Molybdenum
Smelting, powder, carbide and semis
Ganzhou Jiangwu Youtai New Material
Powder and carbide
Ganzhou Yuanchi New Material
Power and carbide
Ganzhou Huamao Tungsten Material
Power and carbide
Ganzhou Nonferrous Metal Smelting
Smelting
Ganzhou Huaxing Tungsten Products
Smelting
Hunan Century Special Alloy
Cemented carbide
Hunan Chunchang Nonferrous Concentrating and Smelting
Smelting, powder, carbide and semis
Yunnan Tin
Tin smelting
Jiangxi
Hunan
Yunnan
Page 7 of 12
consulting services
in order to avoid excessive output. It is also expected to
impose higher resource taxes on tungsten ore in 2015, with
the tax collected in line with the selling price (it is levied on a
material basis currently). These measures would correspond
with the overall policy for the resource sector of preserving
reserves, improving environmental practices, supporting the
domestic downstream industries and adding value.
A date has not yet been set for the release of the revised
policy, but MIIT has already started research on The
Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for the non-ferrous metal industry,
which is scheduled to be published in 2016. It has already
issued a list of 16 producers that meet industry admission
standards and where capacity is greater than 5,000 t/
yr. China still has more than 1,000 tungsten smelting and
processing companies, which is making regulation of the
industry difficult.
The government is committed to its policy of consolidation
and integration and will continue to impose quotas on
tungsten production. These quotas will concentrate on
ensuring adequate supply for the domestic downstream
tungsten sector, rather than for export.
The tungsten production quota for Jiangxi province for 2014
was finalised at 37,750t (WO3, 65pc) out of a nationwide
total that remained unchanged at 89,000t. In conjunction
with industry consolidation, MIIT has also recently launched
a new campaign to eliminate illegal mining and with it
the majority of material that is smuggled for export. The
government has started with the domestic rare earths
industry, as this was the main focus of the recent WTO
investigation. Given that output of tungsten concentrates in
2013 was 40pc above quota with similar overproduction in
2014, it is likely that the authorities will be targeting unofficial
tungsten production sooner rather than later.
Outside of China, potential tungsten producing projects
are finding that progress towards commercial production is
being hampered by difficulties in sourcing the necessary
financing. There are sufficient projects in the pipeline to
ensure future supply of tungsten, but the financing issue is
creating a bottleneck with very little new supply due to come
on stream in the next 18 months. The Hemerdon project
in the UK is under construction and is scheduled to begin
producing concentrates in the third quarter of 2015, although
significant quantities of tungsten are unlikely to reach the
market until 2016.
Page 8 of 12
Smaller projects with lower capital outlay may have a
better chance of getting into production than some of the
larger projects, although output volumes are necessarily
smaller. Almonty and W Resources were able to develop
and commercialise the Los Santos and La Parilla projects,
respectively, and continue to develop other properties. Total
production capacity at the two operations is approximately
650 t/yr, which is less than 1pc of global tungsten output.
Blackheath Resources, for example, is looking to replicate
the development strategies implemented at Los Santos and
La Parilla, beginning with its Covas project.
A number of other projects are looking at 2016 as the year
to begin production, although all of these development
timetables are dependent on securing the necessary permits
and, above all, financing. Thor Mining announced that it
could be 18 months away from production at its Molyhil
project in Australia, while at the same time putting a fiveyear timeline on its newly acquired Pilot Mountain project
in Nevada, US. King Island Scheelite has also set an
18-month target to start production at its Dolphin project on
King Island, Tasmania. Vital Metals, by contrast, expects to
start tungsten production on time at its Watershed project
in Queensland, Australia, in mid-2015, but this is dependent
on a development partner being attracted to the project.
Japanese state-owned energy agency Jogmec took a 30pc
share of the project in 2011 under an earn-in agreement
to fund the definitive feasibility study and is helping Vital to
raise finance for the project.
Recycling is also an important source of tungsten supply and
secondary material has increased its share of total tungsten
supply in recent years. Estimates vary as to the level of
recycling in the global tungsten industry, but potentially as
much as 30pc of supply of tungsten in 2014 could come
from secondary sources. The level of recycling varies
considerably from region to region from as low as 10-15pc
in China to around 50pc in Europe. It may be technically
feasible to recycle as much as 80pc of tungsten in some
end-use applications, but 55pc has been estimated as a
maximum achievable recycling rate for tungsten over all
its applications. If this is the case, Europe and the US are
already very close to maximum recycling rates.
consulting services
Project tracker
Company
Project
Startup*
Progress
Capex
$mn
Resource
mn t
Capacity
t/yr W
Almonty
Los Santos
2011
Operating
n.a.
6.6
500
Almonty
Wolfram Camp
2013
Operating
n.a.
Masan
Nui Phao, Vietnam
2014
Operating
500+
97.4
4,100
W Resources
La Parilla, Spain
2014
Operating
n.a.
19.0
150
Wolf Minerals
Hemerdon, UK
2015
Under construction
160
401.4
2,700
Ormonde
Barruecopardo Spain
2015
BFS complete - financing stage
65
27.4
1,800
Awaiting mining concession
Vital Metals
Watershed, Australia
2015
DFS completed
150
49.2
1,000
Awaiting Jogmec investment
decision
Carbine
Tungsten
Mt Carbine, Australia
2016
Feasibility study completed,
permitting in place
52
18.0
1,300
Mitsubishi approved $15mn
funding in Oct 2014
Tungsten Mining
Kilba, Australia
2015+
Feasibility study in progress
and permitting in place
56
5.0
1,250
Hazelwood
Cookes Creek, Australia
2016
Feasibility study
120
47.4
1,600
King Island
Dolphin, Australia
2016
DFS completed 2012, debt
financing in progress
133
9.1
2,750
N American
Tungsten
Mactung, Canada
PFS completed 2009, environmental approval received 2014
400
44.9
7,000
Thor Mining
Molyhil, Australia
2016
53
4.7
1,250
Acquired Pilot Mountain
Plymouth
Minerals
Morille, Spain
2016
Silver Predator
Springer, US
2016
Permitting largely in place
30
2.3
1,100
Seeking joint venture partner
Venture
Minerals
Mt Lindsay, Australia
2016
BFS completed, mining lease
granted July 2014
200
45.0
1,500
Seeking environmental
approvals and financing
Blackheath
Resources
Covas, Portugal
2016
Drilling and resource definition
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Plymouth
Minerals
Morille, Spain
2016
Drilling and resource definition
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Northcliff
Sisson, Canada
2017
DFS completed
579
334.0
4,400
Societe Generale appointed
as financial adviser
Woulfe
Sangdong, S Korea
2017
DFS completed
151
34.5
3,150
Further drilling in progress
Largo
Resources
Northern Dancer,
Canada
PEA complete
645
223.4
6,500
Thor Mining
Pilot Mountain, US
Newcrest
O’Callaghans, Australia
500
59.4
3,800
500
Notes
Acquired from Deutsche
Rohstoff in 2014
Revisiting DFS
Other properties include
Borralha, Bejanca, Vale das
Gatas, Adoria
2019
*from company information
Page 9 of 12
consulting services
Trade
It is probably too early to assess the impact of the WTO
ruling against China’s export regime for tungsten, but the
Chinese government remains firm in its commitment to the
basic policy goals that it has set out for the resources sector
in general and tungsten in particular, namely; preserving
reserves, improving environmental practices, supporting
the domestic processing and downstream industries
and adding value to natural resources. It is possible that
exports of tungsten will rise in the short term if and when
export quotas and taxes are removed, but China will exert
control on exports through other means, such as tighter
restrictions on production and supply. In order to achieve its
policy objectives in the medium to longer term the Chinese
government will need to reduce tungsten exports.
In the first eight months of 2014, China’s imports of tungsten
concentrate decreased by 45pc to 3,708t compared with
the same period in 2013, while the total import value was
$57.1mn, a fall of 31pc. Consumption of tungsten raw
materials has dropped as most domestic APT and ferrotungsten producers have cut production in 2014 owing to
moderate downstream demand. In August 2014, Chinese
tungsten concentrate imports were down 54pc to 441t
compared with the same month last year, while the import
value was $6.1mn, down by 57pc. Russia is the main
supplier of concentrates to China accounting for 45pc of
the total and shipments fell by 35pc in January to August
2014 compared with the same period in 2013. Imports of
concentrates from Rwanda, Vietnam and Canada also
dropped, while shipments from Mongolia and Bolivia tripled
albeit from lower levels.
Chinese exports of tungsten carbide increased by almost
17pc in the first eight months of 2014 compared to the same
period a year earlier. Total exports were 1,518t with a value of
$76.4mn, an increase of 20pc over January to August 2013. In
August 2014, China’s exports of tungsten carbide rose 32pc
to 229t, while the export value was $11.3mn, a 21pc increase
compared with the same month last year. The growth in
tungsten carbide exports has been attributed to increased
demand from European consumers after stocks began to
run low in June, although Japan remains the main market
for Chinese tungsten carbide representing 48pc of total
shipments in the year to August. Exports to Germany were up
by nearly 30pc, while shipments to the US and South Korea
were almost unchanged from the same period in 2013.
Page 10 of 12
Tungsten oxide exports from China also grew at a similar
rate to tungsten carbide exports. In the first eight months of
2014, Chinese tungsten oxide exports increased by 25pc
to 2,830t, while the total export value was $102.2mn, up
by 32pc compared with the same period a year earlier. In
August 2014, exports of tungsten oxides increased by 51pc
to 452t, with a value of $16.1mn, a rise of 34pc compared
the corresponding period in 2013. Japan accounts for over
half of all Chinese exports of tungsten oxides, followed by
South Korea (23pc), the US and the Netherlands (both 8pc).
Exports increased following a marked recovery in demand
from the Japanese tungsten powder market, while shipments
to the other main markets all fell.
Argus Consulting Services
Drawing on Argus’ extensive knowledge of energy markets,
broad range of industry contacts and deep historical
databases, our consultancy division provides clients with
tailored analysis, detailed research and data to provide
market inteliigence and competitive advantage.
Contact us at [email protected] for more information.
illuminating the markets
consulting services
Trade
Chinese tungsten trade
September
Year-to-date
Volumes t
Revenues $
Volumes t
Revenues $
2014 (f)
2013
2014/2013
Volumes t
Volumes t
±%
-41
Tungsten ore and concentrate imports
755
10,370,988
4,463
67,499,277
5,951
10,043
Russia
322
4,678,538
1,980
29,794,612
2,640
2,906
-9
Mongolia
191
2,254,408
563
3,998,578
751
1,510
-50
Brazil
60
1,305,408
384
8,139,310
512
1,510
-66
Bolivia
42
841,163
370
7,716,159
493
466
6
Tungstate exports
378
11,695,381
3,994
130,053,466
5,325
4,752
12
Netherlands
21
202
6,324,153
1,483
47,248,394
1,977
1,632
US
13
391,034
1,110
38,086,053
1,480
1,519
-3
Japan
81
2,529,377
1,003
32,308,277
1,337
1,123
19
Vietnam
80
2,377,564
220
6,436,334
293
159
84
1
34,200
131
4,188,339
175
71
146
Tungstic acid exports
Turkey
-
-
100
3,150,000
133
40
233
US
-
-
17
537,540
23
9
152
Japan
-
-
8
272,880
11
4
167
South Korea
1
34,200
6
227,919
8
19
-58
Tungsten trioxide exports
500
17,843,831
3,330
120,044,250
4,440
3,860
15
Japan
371
13,348,531
1,871
67,971,413
2,495
1,150
117
South Korea
-22
116
4,034,552
768
27,501,373
1,024
1,319
US
-
-
237
8,490,371
316
504
-37
Netherlands
-
-
213
7,795,257
284
475
-40
Other tungsten oxides exports
372
13,036,937
3,781
135,325,604
5,041
3,919
29
South Korea
172
5,930,572
1,217
44,066,999
1,623
1,392
17
Netherlands
40
1,428,195
1,008
38,828,943
1,344
1,178
14
89
Canada
20
715,938
520
17,964,355
693
366
US
20
727,281
478
17,661,122
637
700
-9
Ferro-tungsten exports
3
140,918
332
14,008,866
443
72
515
Japan
2
100,404
330
13,919,402
440
70
529
South Korea
-
-
1
48,950
1
2
-33
Russia
1
40,514
1
40,514
1
-
-
204
11,324,024
1,723
86,262,611
2,297
1,865
23
Tungsten carbide exports
Japan
76
3,442,928
802
39,670,106
1,069
835
28
Germany
91
4,500,289
365
18,265,064
487
217
124
US
11
518,700
219
11,419,318
292
293
-
5
235,406
133
6,232,170
177
206
-14
122
5,932,058
689
34,088,102
919
669
37
76
3,799,089
352
18,149,383
469
370
27
-
-
101
4,674,500
135
120
12
29
1,384,321
79
3,822,345
105
63
67
South Korea
Tungsten metal powder exports
US
Germany
Japan
Austria
-
-
40
1,822,884
53
45
19
183
10,261,529
1,625
107,281,272
2,167
1,448
50
US
63
3,149,090
734
38,128,561
979
439
123
Japan
33
1,807,626
335
18,495,513
447
357
25
Hong Kong
33
1,406,949
134
20,029,500
179
172
4
UK
34
1,862,907
78
4,664,932
104
99
5
Tungsten wire exports
23
2,286,893
288
30,696,443
384
385
-
8
622,294
86
6,318,661
115
107
7
Wrought tungsten exports
India
Poland
2
305,015
43
6,000,835
57
54
6
South Korea
2
156,994
39
3,364,286
52
46
13
Japan
4
377,933
34
3,016,511
45
60
-24
Page 11 of 12
consulting services
Argus Tungsten Monthly Outlook is published by Argus Consulting Services, a division of Argus Media Group.
Registered office
Argus House, 175 St John St, London, EC1V 4LW
Tel: +44 20 7780 4200 Fax: +44 870 868 4338
email: [email protected]
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Copyright notice
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the information published herein are the exclusive
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(including, but not limited to, single prices or any other
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Page 12 of 12
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Disclaimer
The data and other information published herein
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makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the
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Argus Tungsten Monthly Outlook

Transcription

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