Fort Hood Area Market Statistics

Transcription

Fort Hood Area
Market Statistics
2016
Killeen  Harker Heights  Copperas Cove
2nd Quarter
1 APR – 30 JUN
Housing Inventory Falls Under 5 Months
Harker Heights
Fort Hood Area
SE Killeen, 76542
SW Killeen, 76549
Kempner
Salado
N Killeen, 76541
Lampasas
Killeen (ALL)
NE Killeen, 76543
Gatesville
Nolanville
Copperas Cove

½
½
½


½
½



½

The Fort Hood area behaves like a weak buyer’s market –
sellers often pay closing costs, title policies, surveys, home
warranties and more. Buyer’s markets are usually defined as
6+ months of inventory, however the Fort Hood area is
now under 5 months. If this keeps up, or gets lower, sellers
may be able to get more from buyers in the near future.
Copperas Cove followed up a great 1st Quarter showing
with a lousy 2nd Quarter, likely just the ebbs and flows of a
market (and small data sample size). Harker Heights did
well, the only region to improve in all metrics over the same
period in 2015.
Meanwhile, 2-4 unit multi-families continue to show signs
that the rebound has run its course. Prices skyrocketed since
the dregs of 2011, but couldn’t go up forever.
REQUEST A HOME VALUATION
The Fort Hood Area Housing Market Statistics
While the 2nd Quarter is not great news for all communities, the Fort Hood market as a whole had a very
good three months. Absorption rates dropping was just part of the fun. The entire area saw a YoY
increase in the median home value of 6%.
Heights’ Heights. Harker Heights is one of the best performing communities and fastest growing –
seeing a 63% increase in home sales versus the same period in 2015, as well as nearly a double digit
price increase.
Sample Size. The small sample size for many communities will mean increased volatility in many of
these numbers over as short a span as 3 months.
Tumbleweed Estates vs. Nolanridge. Nolanville’s numbers look awful bad on the surface for a second
quarter in a row, again because the area has a bit of a chasm between homes in the $120ks and down
and the $180ks and up.
www.HoodHomesBlog.com
2
Brian E Adams, REALTOR®, GRI
Foreclosures. Because of builders and the VA loan, foreclosures are always likely to be prevalent
features of the Fort Hood housing landscape, and generally hover around a constant 20% of the MLS
sales. The modest 1st Quarter drops are now dramatic decreases – a great sign for the market.
Are People Getting Excited? The Sell to Original List Ratio column is the only one in this report without
much green. Seller’s aren’t getting any closer to asking price. It may be a case of optimism in the market
and pricing aggressively. If so, it hasn’t hurt the days on market any, as sellers in most areas are finding
their buyers quicker than this time last year.
Workhorse. The South sides of Killeen (76549 and 76542) didn’t have a splashy 2nd Quarter like Harker
Heights did, but certainly an all-around good effort with solid numbers throughout. This is likely driven
in the SE side by higher end neighborhoods that continue going up in place like White Rock Estates and
Yowell Ranch, and in the SW side from extensive commercial development along Stan Schlueter.
3
Bedrooms are an abundant commodity in the Fort Hood area. 3 and 4 bedroom homes are normal.
Sellers and landlords with only 2 bedroom homes face strong headwinds, though the 16 two-bedroom
homes that sold this quarter did a lot better than they did a year ago. Interestingly, all but 4 bedroom
homes suffered a longer time on the market, meaning that 4 bedroom homes are probably the sweet
spot when it comes to selling in the Fort Hood area.
The multi-family market had been doing well, rebounding from the lows of the recession and 2011
bottom. However they couldn’t keep going up forever. It looks as though the momentum has, at best,
stalled. At worst, we’ve reached the plateau and won’t see significant price increases until rents start
creeping upwards.
Permits overall are down for the same period in 2015. It may be a case that developers usually get their
permits done early in the year with deadlines in October or December. It may also simply be the case
that Fort Hood residential development is slowing down, which may not hold up if inventory keeps
falling.
4
Did you feel bad for Nolanville, who got clobbered in nearly every other metric? Well, don’t. Those
metrics measure “direction” – as in, whether a market is getting better or worse versus where it was a
year ago. Nolanville has gotten “worse” so to speak, but only because it has been such a strong market.
3.5 months inventory is closer to what white hot markets like Austin or Georgetown see (closer – not
quite there, yet).
These are numbers not generally associated with a buyers’ market like Fort Hood. There are various
reasons Fort Hood still behaves like a buyer’s market, but no reason that will be the case forever. If
inventory dips below 4, and especially below 3, I predict buyers will start paying their own closing costs
more often.
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6
7
8
About Me
A Dallas native, I made my way to Central Texas when posted to Fort Hood in the Army after graduating
West Point and commissioning as a Field Artillery Officer. Real estate has been my passion since leaving
the Army. I am blessed to be making a living doing something I love.
My wife, Helen, is from London. We met when both on vacation in Mexico, have since married and had
two happy and beautiful daughters, Heather Lily and Matilda May.
StarPointe Realty Central Texas LLC
311 E Stan Schlueter Lp. Ste. #205
Killeen, TX 76542
(512) 763-7912
[email protected]
Licensed in the State of Texas
9
Fort Hood Area
Market Statistics
2016
Killeen  Harker Heights  Copperas Cove
1st Quarter
1 JAN – 31 MAR
Home Prices Begin 2016 on a Positive Note
Home sales prices for the entire Fort Hood Area were up 5% in the 1st Quarter of 2016 versus the
same quarter in 2015. Home sales by units were up 6%, sell-to-list ratios improved, and there were
fewer foreclosures, always a chronic problem in the Fort Hood area. The last three months’
building permits outpace the same time last year by 13%.
The area is keeping consistent – modest improvement in home values approximately
commensurate with inflation. Killeen took a slight downturn versus its performance 1st Quarter
of 2015, while Copperas Cove had an excellent quarter, bouncing back at least momentarily from a
sustained, multi-year home value decline.
Multi-families had a down quarter, with fourplexes in particular trending lower, although the small
sample size will produce outsized movement either direction.
HOME VALUES: 1st Quarter, 2016
# Sold
2016
Fort Hood Area 754
2015
710
Median $
Δ
6%
2016
$130,670
$115,500
$33,300
$138,000
$79,500
$124,750
$194,221
$132,000
2015
$125,000
Δ
5%
Median $ / Sq. Ft.
2015
2016
Δ
$70
$73
4%
$162,000
-13%
13%
-1%
10%
-1%
20%
$68
$28
$72
$54
$72
$88
$130,000
$99,450
31%
7%
$135,000
$268,000
25
8%
$83,000
19
23
-17%
Lampasas
24
20
Salado
9
2
Killeen (ALL)
N, 76541
SE, 76542
NE, 76543
SW, 76549
Harker Heights
392
29
134
57
172
92
391
66
0%
38%
-10%
14%
0%
39%
Copperas Cove
127
115
10%
Nolanville
16
15
Gatesville
27
Kempner
21
149
50
172
$82
-3%
-3%
-1%
8%
3%
7%
$73
$63
16%
-50%
$78
$100
-22%
$103,900
-20%
$62
$72
-14%
$165,000
$159,900
3%
$89
$85
5%
20%
$132,000
$110,000
20%
$87
$81
7%
350%
$289,000
$234,500
23%
$122
$108
13%
$29,500
$140,000
$72,450
$125,950
$70
$29
$73
$50
$70
Information from the Fort Hood Area Association of Realtor MLS (FHAARMLS®)
The 1st Quarter values are mostly good news for the Fort Hood area, and a mixed bag for Killeen, by far
the largest city in the area.
Copperas Cove. “Cove” saw the largest YoY median price increase of 30% and corresponding 16%
increase in the price-per-square-foot, no doubt welcome news to residents in the area. Harker Heights
also posted strong showings.
Sample Size. The small sample size for many communities will mean increased volatility in many of
these numbers over as short a span as 3 months.
Bella Charca. Nolanville’s numbers look awful, however that is simply because half as many homes sold
in the city’s high end neighborhood Bella Charca, dropping the median home out of the gated HOA
community.
2
MARKET HEALTH: 1st Quarter, 2016
Days to Contract
2015
Δ
2016
51
Fort Hood Area 54
6%
Sell to List Ratio
2015
2016
Δ
97.6%
1%
98.3%
% Foreclosures
2015
Δ
2016
21%
20%
-5%
Killeen (ALL)
N, 76541
SE, 76542
NE, 76543
SW, 76549
Harker Heights
42
68
40
33
53
75
99.0%
90.3%
98.9%
98.3%
100.0%
98.3%
98.6%
49
-14%
39%
-25%
-31%
39%
53%
96.7%
0%
7%
1%
2%
1%
2%
24%
28%
22%
33%
22%
10%
Copperas Cove
74
54
37%
98.4%
97.3%
1%
Nolanville
58
61
-5%
97.6%
98.5%
Gatesville
45
73
-38%
95.3%
Kempner
71
83
-14%
Lampasas
55
87
Salado
88
9
49
49
53
48
38
14%
-4%
-15%
0%
-8%
-4%
-29%
22%
22%
0%
-1%
10%
20%
-50%
95.0%
0%
10%
12%
-17%
97.1%
95.4%
2%
16%
17%
-6%
-37%
96.7%
90.1%
7%
8%
15%
-47%
878%
95.9%
97.5%
-2%
0%
0%
0%
84.3%
98.4%
96.8%
99.5%
25%
33%
22%
36%
23%
Foreclosures. Because of builders and the VA loan, foreclosures are always likely to be prevalent
features of the Fort Hood housing landscape, and generally hover around a constant 20% of the MLS
sales. The 1st Quarter at least saw small reductions in the number of foreclosures nearly everywhere,
which is of course great to see.
Days on Market. Fort Hood sellers took just a little bit longer to find a buyer, but the wait appears to
have been worth it as sell-to-list ratios improved. Note: the Days to Contract metric is from listing to
contract, versus Days on Market which is listing to closing. Contract to closing is usually 4-6 weeks.
Winners. Lampasas and the NE side of Killeen (76543) were the only communities to see all green for
the 1st quarter, improving YoY in all six metrics evaluated under Home Values and Market Health.
3
BY # BEDROOMS: 1st Quarter, 2016
2 Bedrooms
3 Bedrooms
4 Bedrooms
5+ Bedrooms
2016
28
331
354
41
# Sold
2015
20
337
321
31
Δ
40%
-2%
10%
32%
Median $
2016
$51,300
$98,900
$159,900
$190,000
2015
$49,650
$95,500
$151,864
$187,790
Δ
3%
4%
5%
1%
Days to Contract
2016
57
48
68
42
2015
34
50
51
56
Δ
68%
-4%
33%
-25%
Bedrooms are an abundant commodity in the Fort Hood area. 3 and 4 bedroom homes are normal.
Sellers and landlords with only 2 bedroom homes face strong headwinds with a median sales price of
barely $50,000. But, that is an improvement over last year as values continue creeping upwards. The
few even roomier homes with 5+ bedrooms are doing even better, with substantially fewer days on
market than fewer bedroom competitors.
MULTI-FAMILY VALUES: 1st Quarter, 2016
2016
Duplexes 32
Fourplexes 15
# Sold
2015
31
18
Δ
3%
-17%
Median $
2016
$150,000
$154,900
2015
$149,000
$177,450
Δ
1%
-13%
Days to Contract
2016
42
61
2015
42
58.5
Δ
0%
4%
The multi-family market has generally been doing well, rebounding from the lows of the recession and
2011 bottom. Anecdotally, I have many more investors and buyers expressing interest in multi-families
than I had a year ago. However, and such momentum is not apparent in 1QTR multi-family sales,
although this may be a casualty of the small sample size. Fourplexes (or Quadplexes) generally sold for
significantly less than a year ago, and duplexes are treading water. The summer will show if this is noise
or the wave beginning to crest.
4
BUILDING PERMITS: 1st Quarter, 2016
2015
2016
0
DECEMBER
JANUARY
FEBRUARY
TOTAL
140
184
174
498
DECEMBER
271
94%
JANUARY
168
FEBRUARY
124
TOTAL
563
-9%
-29%
13%
Information from the United States Census Bureau
For the most recent three months available, building permits are up 13%, predominantly for Single
Family Homes (SFH) and a few duplexes. In spite of the total being up over the same period last year,
permits show a month by month decline. That might be explained by developers getting the permits
they needed in December, where new permits spiked.
FINANCING: 1st Quarter, 2016
VA
Cash
Conventional
FHA
2015
375
104
124
89
6
2
10
%
53%
15%
17%
13%
1%
0%
1%
145
124
16%
-6%
87
12%
-8%
5
2
0%
-6%
14
2%
32%
2016 377
% 50%
Δ -5%
19%
31%
Owner Assumption Other
1%
-22%
50% of Fort Hood area buyers use the VA loan, an astronomical number versus almost anywhere else in
the USA. The typically more common financing methods like conventional and FHA aren’t even close,
combined representing not even a third of the market. Cash buyers spiked in the first quarter,
reclaiming its position as the 2nd most common financing method in the Fort Hood area. Contrary to the
perception elsewhere in America, the VA loan is not difficult or more onerous, and particular local Fort
Hood area lenders are extremely experienced and adept with this loan type.
5
SPECIFICATIONS: 1st Quarter, 2016
Fort Hood Area
# Sold
754
AVG Year Built # Bedrooms
2002
4
Sq Ft
1824
Acres
0.20
% 2 Stories
16%
Killeen (ALL)
N, 76541
SE, 76542
NE, 76543
SW, 76549
Harker Heights
392
29
134
57
172
92
2004
1960
2004
1986
2006
2005
4
3
4
3
4
4
1678
1174
1878
1431
1808
2244
0.19
0.19
0.20
0.20
0.18
0.25
16%
0%
22%
9%
15%
24%
Copperas Cove
127
1993
4
1784
0.20
12%
Nolanville
16
2006
4
1832
0.21
6%
Gatesville
27
1980
3
1683
0.49
15%
Kempner
19
2002
3
1710
1.09
11%
Lampasas
24
1988
3
1581
0.33
4%
Salado
9
1985
4
2699
0.52
44%
Builders. The median home purchased in the Fort Hood area was only 14 years old, reflective of the
massive growth in the area between 2001 and now (the population grew from approximately 80,000 to
130,000 in that time). Most homes in Killeen, Harker Heights and Copperas Cove are newer
construction and in good condition.
Farm and Ranch. No surprise, Kempner, Salado, Gatesville, and the other communities on the
periphery of the Fort Hood area have lots of space, clocking in with half acre lots plus. Though the 1
QTR sales do not reflect it, Copperas Cove is also an affordable area for homes with larger lots and land.
6
Killeen,Single
TXFamilyHome
Values
Homes
$140,000
1800
1600
$135,000
1000
$120,000
800
$115,000
600
$110,000
400
$105,000
$100,000
200
2009
2010
2011
# Sold
2012
2013
2014
Fort Hood Area $
Median Sale Price
2016 Q1
0
Killeen
Information from the Fort Hood Area MLS
$140,000
2015
North Killeen,
TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
120
$120,000
100
$100,000
80
$80,000
60
$60,000
40
$40,000
20
$20,000
2009
# Sold
2010
2011
2012
Fort Hood Area $
Killeen
2014
2015
2016 Q1
0
N Killeen (76541)
2013
# Homes Sold
Median Sale Price
1200
$125,000
# Homes Sold
1400
$130,000
7
$145,000
600
500
$135,000
$130,000
400
$125,000
300
$120,000
$115,000
200
$110,000
100
$105,000
$100,000
2009
# Sold
2010
2011
2012
Fort Hood Area $
2013
2014
Killeen
2015
2016 Q1
0
SE Killeen (76542)
Northeast Killeen,
TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
$140,000
350
$130,000
300
$120,000
250
$110,000
200
$100,000
150
$90,000
100
$80,000
50
$70,000
$60,000
# Homes Sold
Median Sale Price
$140,000
Median Sale Price
700
# Homes Sold
$150,000
Southeast Killeen,
TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
2009
# Sold
2010
2011
2012
Fort Hood Area $
Killeen
2014
2015
0
NE Killeen (76543)
2013
8
Southwest Killeen, TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
$140,000
800
700
600
$130,000
500
$125,000
400
$120,000
300
$115,000
200
$110,000
$105,000
100
2009
2010
# Sold
2011
2012
2013
Fort Hood Area $
2014
Killeen
2015
2016 Q1
0
SW Killeen (76549)
$140,000
# Homes Sold
Median Sale Price
$135,000
Copperas Cove,
TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
600
$135,000
500
400
$125,000
$120,000
300
$115,000
200
# Homes Sold
Median Sale Price
$130,000
$110,000
100
$105,000
$100,000
2009
2010
# Sold
2011
2012
Fort Hood Area $
2014
2015
Q1
0
Copperas Cove
2013
9
500
$190,000
450
$180,000
400
350
$170,000
300
$160,000
250
$150,000
200
$140,000
150
$130,000
100
$120,000
50
$110,000
# Homes Sold
Median Sale Price
$200,000
Harker Heights,
TX Home Values
Single Family Homes
2009
2010
# Sold
2011
2012
2013
Fort Hood Area $
2014
2015
2016 Q1
0
Harker Heights $
About Me
A Dallas native, I made my way to Central Texas when posted to Fort Hood in the Army after graduating
West Point and commissioning as a Field Artillery Officer. Real estate has been my passion since leaving
the Army. I am blessed to be making a living doing something I love.
My wife, Helen, is from London. We met when both on vacation in Mexico, have since married and had
two happy and beautiful daughters, Heather Lily and Matilda May.
StarPointe Realty Central Texas LLC
311 E Stan Schlueter Lp. Ste. #205
Killeen, TX 76542
(512) 763-7912
[email protected]
Licensed in the State of Texas
10

Fort Hood Area Market Statistics

Transcription

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