Miami Herald March 16 Event - Who`s Buying Miami Real Estate and

Market Update
New International Reports
Who’s Buying
South Florida
Real Estate?
Copyright 2015 Miami Association of Realtors
Eight Years
of
Single-Family
Sales
Increases
Six Years
of
Condo
Sales
Increases
Then…
Impact of
New
Construction
Sales along
with strong
Condo sales
Six Years
of
Increasing
Total
Residential
Sales
Last 2 years
.003 from record
.005 from record
Not including New
Construction Sales
Single-Family Sales (2010 – 2015)
Sales Volume
Median Sales Prices
Condo Sales (2010 – 2015)
Sales Volume
Median Sales Prices
Sales $1 million and above
Sales $1 million and above
• Sales Decreased in 2015
• DOM & Cash Sales Flat
• Inventory & New Listings Increasing
January 2015 Sales by Sale Price
Single Family
Condos
2015 Inventory by List Price
Single Family
Condos
Hot Price Ranges in January 2016
SF Home Sales
$250,000 - $400,000 experienced an 18.3% increase
= 34.6% of total sales
Condo Sales
$150,000 - $300,000 experienced a 25.1% increase =
38.5% of total sales
January2016SalesPrices
SingleFamily
Median$270,000
+13.7%
Condos
$205,000
+8.8%
%Increaseover1yearago
Single-Family SalePrices
48Monthsofincreases
CondominiumSalePrices
55Monthsofincreases
Pricesstillequalto
12yearsago- 2004
Sales Prices
Peak 2007
$380,000 for SF
$272,000 for Condos
Bottom 2011
------------January 2016
$270,000 SF
$205,000 Condos
= 2004 Prices
Active
Listing
Inventory
43,000 in August 2008
19,826 in Jan 2016
SF = 5.5 Months of
Inventory
Condos = 10.2 months
MIAMI Real Estate Market is Strong …
% of List Price
(LP)
Single Family 95.5% LP
Condos
93.3% LP
Days on Market
(DOM)
72 DOM
89 DOM
Cash Sales
National
26% Cash Sales
Miami
Apx. 52.6% Cash Sales
Miami has double
the % of cash sales
37.1% Single Family
65.7% Condos
_____________
New Construction 90%
Traditional Sales Increasing
Over Distressed Sales
Miami-Dade
U.S.
January 2016
January 2016
78% Traditional
22% Distressed
91% Traditional
9% Distressed
4.4% Short Sales
15.7% Foreclosures
Luxury Existing Sales in 2015
$1 million & more
Sales 1,967 (6.2% of Total Sales)
Cash Sales 61% of Luxury Sales
Luxury Cash Sales
3.8% of Total Miami Sales
MIAMI-Dade
County is
4th largest
In the nation
for
job growth
International
Data
136 Global
Partnerships
Worldwide
Nationally …
Number of sales to international customers declined 10%
Dollar volume increased 13%
Nationally …
International
Sales Were
4% of Total
Number of
Sales (vs
22% Miami)
8% of Dollar
Volume
(vs 36% for
Miami Dollar
Volume)
Knight Frank 2015 Wealth
Report
172,850 UHNWI worldwide
(Individuals with $30 million or more)
Plus …
38,280 Centa-millionaires
1,844 Billionaires
17.8 million Millionaires
• Europe has most UHNWI - 60,565, mostly U.K., Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Netherlands & Norway.
• North America has 44,922 UHNWI, with approximately 90 percent coming from the U. S.
• Asia has 42,272, mostly Japan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, & South Korea.
Cost of U.S.
Homes
Higher
Because of
Exchange
Rates
Most
Currencies
Weakened
Against the
Dollar
Top Regions
Buying
U.S. Real Estate
35% Asia/Oceania
23% Latin America
20% Europe
14% Canada
Top Countries
Buying
U.S. Real Estate
16% China
14% Canada
9% Mexico
8% India
4% U.K.
3% France/Germany
2% Venezuela
Top States for
International
Buyers
21% Florida
16% California
_____
8% Texas
5% Arizona
Released
September
2015
Similar to National data,
there were less sales in 2015
but significantly higher
dollar volume
We are 50%
Of the entire
Florida
International
Market
36% Miami
14% Ft Lauderdale
Brazil 62%
Venezuela 68%
Latin America/Caribbean
67%
China 45%
Western Europe 39%
Who Spends the most?
1. China
2. Western Europe
3. Latin America 4. Brazil
2015 Profile of International Home
Buyers in
Miami Association of REALTORS®
Business Areas
January
2016
Prepared for the Miami Association of REALTORS® by
the Research Division of the National Association of
REALTORS®
Lawrence Yun, Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist
Danielle Hale, Managing Director, Housing Research
Gay Cororaton, Research Economist
January 2016
This Report may be cited with the proper attribution.
©2016 Miami Association of REALTORS® and
National Association of REALTORS®
Dollar Volume of International Sales of Members:
$6.1 Billion or 36 Percent of Residential Dollar Sales*
In Billion Dollars
Palm Beach; $0.16;
2.7%
Martin County;
$0.03; 0.5%
Broward,
$1.10; 18.0%
Miami-Dade; $4.82;
78.9%
Source: National Association of REALTORS®
*Based on estimate of transactions closed by Miami REALTORS® members
Total
International
Sales of
Members:
10,600
Properties
22% of
Residential
Closed Sales*
Palm Beach; 418 ;
3.9%
Martin County; 47 ;
0.4%
Broward,
2,692 , 25.2%
Miami-Dade; 7,521 ;
70.4%
Source: National Association of REALTORS®
*Based on estimate of transactions closed by Miami REALTORS® members
Top Tier Countries of International Buyers of Miami
REALTORS® Members in 2015 Survey
13% Venezuela
12% Brazil
10% Argentina
10% Colombia
7% Canada
5% Mexico
4% France
4% Italy
13%
12%
10%
10%
7%
5%
4%
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Canada
Mexico
France
4%
Italy
Next Tier Countries of International Buyers of Miami
REALTORS® Members
4.0%
3% Ecuador
3% Spain
3% Russia
3% D.R.
2% Chile
2% China
2% U.K.
2% Peru
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Ecuador
Spain
Russia
3%
3%
2%
3%
3%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
2%
3%
2%
3%
Dominican
Republic
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
Chile
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
China, People's
United Kingdom
Republic
1%
3%
1%
1%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Peru
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
Miami-Dade: Top Countries of Origin of
Clients
Top Tier Countries of Origin of All International Clients of
REALTORS® Who Identified Miami-Dade County as Main Business Area
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2014
2015
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Italy
Mexico
Canada
Ecuador
France
16%
26%
12%
13%
13%
12%
7%
8%
4%
4%
4%
4%
5%
3%
3%
3%
6%
3%
Dominican
Republic
3%
3%
Broward: Top Countries of Origin of Clients
Top Tier Countries of Origin of All International Clients of
REALTORS® Who Identified Broward County as Main Business Area
16% Canada
16% Venezuela
12% Colombia
9% Argentina
8% Brazil
3% India
3% Russia
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2014
2015
Canada
17%
16%
Venezuela
15%
16%
Colombia
8%
12%
Argentina
12%
9%
Brazil
7%
8%
India
2%
3%
Russia
2%
3%
Other
2%
Destination
of
Venezuelan
Buyers
Broward
17%
Miami-Dade
81%
Palm Beach
5%
Destination
of Brazilian
Buyers
Broward
12%
Miami-Dade
83%
Destination
of
Argentinian
Buyers
Broward
24%
Miami-Dade
76%
Martin County
1%
Destination
of
Canadian
Buyers
Palm Beach
10%
Other
5%
Miami-Dade
27%
Broward
57%
Destination
of
Colombian
Buyers
Palm Beach
3%
Other
2%
Broward
33%
Miami-Dade
62%
INTERNATIONAL BUYERS:
CHARACTERISTICS OF PURCHASE
Purchase Price of the Properties Purchased by Typical International Customer
20%
21%
18%
19%
15%
12%
12%
14%
13%
9%
9%
7%
6%
2015
$750,001 to $1,000,000
2014
$500,001 to $750,000
$400,001 to $500,000
$300,001 to $400,000
$200,001 to $300,000
6%
$100,001 to $200,000
5%
$100,000 or less
Significant
Number of
High-end
Buyers
15%
More than $1,000,000
International
Customers:
Miami
REALTORS®
International
Customers:
More Upscale
Compared to
Other Buyers
In Florida
Average Purchase Price Among Foreign Buyers and All Homebuyers, in $’000
$590
$539
$258
Foreign Buyers-Miami Realtors®
Foreign Buyers-Florida
All Closed Sales-Florida
Average
Purchase
Price of Top
International
Buyers of
Miami
REALTORS®
Members
Average Purchase Price in $'000
$766
$590
Brazil
$516
$516
$510
Colombia
Argentina
Canada
$488
Venezuela
All
Other
3.4%
Don't know
0.3%
With mortgage
financing - Home
country
1.0%
Cash Sales
Accounted
for 75
Percent
With mortagage
financing - US sources
20.8%
All cash
74.4%
CashSales
Cash
Sales
Among
Major
Buyers
Venezuela
Brazil
Argentina
Colombia
Canada
Allforeignbuyers
Percentofbuyers
74%
75%
80%
66%
86%
74%
Intended Use of Property
Properties
for Rental
and/or
Vacation
Use
Accounted
for 71
Percent
32%
21%
19%
18%
3%
2%
3%
2%
Predominant Area in Which Typical Foreign Buyer Purchased a Property
Most Foreign
Buyers
Purchased
Properties in
a Central
City/Urban
Area
21%
21%
57%
2010
17%
16%
13%
14%
10%
19%
20%
20%
22%
27%
63%
64%
66%
63%
61%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Central city/urban area
Suburban area
Resort area
Small town/rural area
Type of Property Purchased by Typical Foreign Buyer
6%
10%
Foreign
Buyers
Preferred
Condominium
Properties
5%
5%
9%
12%
16%
20%
22%
4%
9%
23%
3%
4%
7%
2%
5%
11%
22%
30%
71%
62%
64%
64%
65%
52%
2010
2011
Condominium
2012
Single-family, detached
2013
Townhouse/rowhouse
2014
Commercial Property
2015
Land/Other
Foreign
Buyers
Preferred
Previously
Owned Units
New
14%
Previously owned
86%
Previously
Owned
Units
Purchased
Among
Major
Buyers
Previously-ownedHomePurchases
Percentofbuyers
Venezuela
82%
Brazil
81%
Argentina
91%
Colombia
90%
Canada
94%
Allforeignbuyers
85%
Most
Foreign
Buyers
Intended
to Use
Property
for Up to
Six
Months
Intended Months' Use
Don't know
21%
Less than 1 month
20%
1 to 2 months
15%
More than 6 months
21%
3 to 6 months
23%
Intended
Month’s
Use
Among
Major
Foreign
Buyers
IntendedMonths'UseofProperty
Uptosixmonths
Venezuela
55%
Argentina
60%
Brazil
73%
Colombia
50%
Canada
76%
Allforeignbuyers
58%
Don'tKnow
26%
31%
11%
17%
11%
21%
Exchange
Rate
Changes Had
a Significant
Effect
Higher than
in Previous
Years
Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on International Clients
39%
36%
39%
53%
43%
49%
37%
47%
43%
43%
40%
37%
21%
12%
13%
2010
2011
2012
Not much of an effect
20%
2013
Moderate effect
18%
2014
Very significant effect
10%
2015
Commercial
Sales
Accounted
for a Small
But Growing
Share of
International
Sales
Commercial Sales, As Percent of International Sales
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Commercial Sales, As Percent of International Sales
Share of
Buyers Who
Purchased
Both
Commercial
and
Residential
Property
8%
6%
6%
6%
4%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Who’s looking at
Miami properties…
Miami-Ft Lauderdale is #1 Market in U.S.
For International Searches on Realtor.com
Top Countries Searching Miami/FtL:
Canada
Brazil
U. K.
Germany
Argentina
SouthFlorida:
TheNo.1MarketintheU.S.forInternationalConsumers
TheMiami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeachmarketrankedasthetopmarketintheworldfor
internationalconsumerssearchingforU.S.realestateinJanuary2016,accordingtoRealtor.com.
Thetop-10marketsforoverallinternationalrealestatedemand:
1.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach,FL
2. LosAngeles-LongBeach-Anaheim,CA
3. Bellingham,WA
4. UrbanHonolulu,HI
5. NewYork-Newark-JerseyCity,NY-NJ-PA
6.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,FL
7. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina,HI
8.Naples-Immokalee-MarcoIsland,FL
9.Tampa-St.Petersburg-Clearwater,FL
10.Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand,TX
SouthFlorida rankedasatop-fivemarketin9ofthetop-10largestregionsintheworld- Jan2016Realtor.com:
● NorthAmerica:1.New York-Newark-Jersey City2.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 3.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalm
Beach; 4.Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5.Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington
● SouthAmerica:1.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach2.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL;3.New YorkNewark-Jersey City4.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 5.Dallas-FortWorth-Arlington
● NorthernEurope:1.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 2.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL;3.Miami-Fort
Lauderdale-WestPalmBeach 4.New York-Newark-Jersey City5.Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater
● AustraliaandNewZealand: 1.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim 2.NewYork-Newark-Jersey City3.Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington,TX;4.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach 5.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin
● WesternEurope:1.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach 2.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA;3.New
York-Newark-Jersey City,NY-NJ-PA; 4.Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL;5.CapeCoral-FortMyers
● Caribbean:1.Miami-Fort Lauderdale-WestPalmBeach2.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL;3.Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater 4.New York-Newark-Jersey City5.Atlanta-SandySprings-Roswell,
● SouthernEurope:1.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach 2.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA;3.New
York-Newark-Jersey City4.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 5.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria
● EasternAsia:1.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA;2.New York-Newark-Jersey City,NY-NJ-PA; 3.Dallas-Fort
Worth-Arlington,TX;4.Washington-Arlington-Alexandria5.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin
● WesternAsia:1.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach 2.New York-Newark-Jersey City3.LosAngeles-Long
Beach-Anaheim 4.Houston-The Woodlands-SugarLand 5.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin
● EasternEurope:1.LosAngeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA;2.Miami-FortLauderdale-WestPalmBeach 3.New
York-Newark-Jersey City4.Chicago-Naperville-Elgin 5.Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford,
Indicatorsof
Future/Potential
Business
Who’s Looking at our Properties?
Top 10 Visitors by Country
on Miamire.com
January 2016
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Colombia
Brazil
Venezuela
Argentina
Philippines
Canada
India
United Kingdom
Puerto Rico
France
Which International Markets
are Writing About Miami Real Estate
Top countries covering the MIAMI Market through
our Association’s News Releases
According to PR Web – January 2016
1. Canada
2. U.K.
3. Italy
4. China & Guam
5. Brazil & India
6. Singapore
7. Argentina
8. Hong Kong & Singapore
9. Australia, Belgium, Germany, Venezuela
10.Israel & U.A.E
Top10VisitorsbySTATE
onMiamire.com
January2016
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
California
Texas
NewYork
Georgia
Illinois
Tennessee
NorthCarolina
SouthCarolina
Michigan
Pennsylvania
WhoisWritingaboutthe
MiamiRealEstateMarket…
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
Florida
California
New York
Texas
Connecticut
Georgia
Ontario, Canada
Washington
Indiana
SFMarketIntel.com
MIAMI Association
Site for Market Data
New York and
Miami …
are the Top U.S.
Global Cities
Just Released
10th Edition
Launch Release
With Douglas Elliman
March 8th Miami
Miami is still
2nd in the Entire U.S.
In Importance to UHNWIs
2015 - Miami at #6
2016 – Miami at #12
“This is a blip…”
“The reason for the drop is a weaker
showing from Latin American
"nominations" for Miami.”
“I think a lot of this comes down to
the perception of the Miami market
from Latin America at the moment
due to the weaker dollar.”
The 10 (or 12)
Most Important
Markets In the World
For UHNWIs
11
Tokyo
12
Miami
UHNWIs
Total Wealth
Allocation
Of Investments
Allocation shifts for Real Estate:
54% Have Increased residential real estate
40% expected to increase further over the next 10 years
30% of clients likely to consider a residential purchase in 2016
___________
UHNWIs invested
wealth:
Residential RE = 25%
Commercial RE = 11%
Total Real Estate = 36%
What are the reasons for growing in importance as a reason for
UHNWIs to buy residential property…
55% said it was an investment to sell in the future
46% said Investment diversification
47% said as a safe haven for funds
The safe-haven element was considered especially important by those
respondents with clients in Russia and the CIS – 80% said it was
becoming more important.
Posted at
MiamiRE.com/Market
Teresa King Kinney, CEO
[email protected]
305-468-7010
Lynda Fernandez, SVP
[email protected]
305-468-7040
Copyright 2015 Miami Association of Realtors