Renminbi Hub Switzerland Switzerland Holds

Transcription

Investment Strategy & Research
White Paper Renminbi
November 2014
Renminbi Hub Switzerland
Switzerland Holds Potential for China’s Currency
Impressum
Publisher
Giles Keating
Head of Research for Private Banking and Wealth Management
+41 44 332 22 33
[email protected]
Editorial deadline
November 2014
Visit us on the Internet at
www.credit-suisse.com/research
Copyright
Information from this publication may be quoted if proper reference is
made to the source.
Copyright © 2014 Credit Suisse Group AG and/or its affiliates. All rights
reserved.
Authors
Koon How Heng, +65 6212 6003
[email protected]
Peter Marti +41 44 333 17 64
[email protected]
Claude Maurer +41 44 333 41 90
[email protected]
Cesare Ravara + 41 44 333 51 81
[email protected]
Christine Schmid + 41 44 334 56 43
[email protected]
With the collaboration of
Manuel Rybach, Jannick Dousse
Renminbi – Renminbi-Hub Switzerland
2
Content
1.
The rise of China also benefits Switzerland
5
2.
The international renminbi market is growing rapidly
7
3.
Renminbi hub Switzerland: Credit Suisse plays an important role
11
Disclosures
13
Global disclaimer / important information
13
3
4
1
The rise of China also benefits Switzerland
China’s rapid
economic ascent
In a short space of time, the People’s Republic of China has quickly advanced to become the
world’s second-largest national economy and is even already the world’s number one exporter.
China’s currency, the renminbi, ranks among the ten most frequently traded currencies worldwide, occupying seventh place, one notch ahead of the Swiss franc. Today China’s economy is
a world leader in the high-tech sector. China, for instance, manufactures more than half of all
solar panels and wind turbines installed worldwide. Chinese enterprises have grown strongly in
areas such as electrical engineering, medical technology and electronics. China’s share of world
gross domestic product currently stands at around 16%, more than two times higher than at the
start of the new millennium (see Figure 1). China’s economic ascent is improving incomes,
boosting savings and enhancing investment opportunities for large swaths of the country’s
population.
Substantial trade and
investment flows between
Switzerland and China
China is an important foreign trade partner for Switzerland. In 2013, 4% of Swiss exports went
to China and 6% of Swiss imports came from China. According to statistics from the Swiss
Customs Administration, China purchased CHF 8.8 billion worth of Swiss products in 2013,
primarily machinery and instrumentation, watches, and chemical and pharmaceutical products.
Over the same period, Switzerland imported CHF 11.4 billion worth of Chinese goods, primarily
machinery, textiles, clothing, watch components and chemical products (see Figures 2 and 3).
Add to that trade in services, mainly in the areas of banking, insurance, logistics, product and
quality testing, and business consulting services. Statistical surveys conducted by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) show that Swiss foreign direct investment in China has more than doubled
over the last five years to a volume of around CHF 15 billion. Over the same time frame, Swiss
companies’ total personnel headcount in China has increased from 120,000 to 200,000, which
equates to 7% of all Swiss company staff employed outside Switzerland. The trade and investment flows between Switzerland and China additionally involve countless ancillary suppliers and
jobs, as well as myriad financial transactions, in both countries.
Free trade agreement
cements longstanding
trade relations
The free trade agreement (FTA) between Switzerland and China that went into effect on July 1,
2014, promotes and enhances economic cooperation between the two countries. The FTA
covers mutual customs exemptions for trade involving industrial and agricultural products, as
well as eased market access conditions in broad areas of trade in services. Around 95% of the
trade volume between Switzerland and China benefits from these facilitations, which went into
force on the FTA’s inception date, though some transition periods are specified in the treaty.
Figure 1
Figure 2
China’s economic importance is steadily increasing
Switzerland’s top seven import source countries
Imports in CHF billion
18
70
16
China's share of world GDP (at purchasing-power parity)
China's real GDP growth (year-on-year change in %)
Ireland
Austria
USA
China
France
Italy
Germany
60
50
14
40
12
30
10
20
8
6
2000
10
0
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Datastream, Credit Suisse; IMF forecast for 2013 onward
2014
2016
2005
2010
2012
2013
Source: Swiss Customs Administration, Credit Suisse
5
Switzerland is the first country in continental Europe to sign such a comprehensive trade agreement with China. Neither the European Union nor the USA can count on even remotely similar
trade facilitations. Switzerland Global Enterprise (formerly OSEC) estimates the potential customs duty savings on Swiss exports to China at approximately CHF 5.8 billion by 2028.
Rapprochement also
in the financial sector
Financial products are indispensable to trade. Knowing this, in May 2013 China and Switzerland
agreed to initiate a financial dialogue for the purpose of cultivating and deepening cooperation
between the two countries also in the area of finance. At the first meetings in Shanghai in late
2013 and in Bern in mid-2014, discussions centered on Switzerland’s increased involvement in
international usage of the renminbi and on issues regarding regulation and supervision, selling
and distribution of financial services, and the participation of Switzerland in China’s investment
programs. The Chinese trade delegation clearly signaled its interest in also exploring opportunities for cooperation in banking-related research, education and advanced training. Both delegations declared themselves in favor of continuing the financial dialogue. The next meeting may
take place in China during the first half of 2015.
Switzerland in focus
as a renminbi hub
Inside China, the renminbi is not freely convertible due to the country’s restrictions on currency
trading and payment transactions. The renminbi’s value against the US dollar (onshore exchange rate, CNY) is instead set daily by the People’s Bank of China. Nevertheless, internationalization of the Chinese currency is accelerating because the renminbi is freely tradable outside China (offshore exchange rate, CNH; see Figure 4). This setup opens scope for a Swiss
offshore renminbi hub for trade finance or foreign-exchange trading, for example. The benefits
are obvious. A Swiss renminbi hub simplifies transactions in the Chinese currency for Swiss enterprises by enabling them, for instance, to conduct transactions in their own time zone. This
lowers costs, as does the fact that Chinese exporters sometimes grant substantial price discounts if they are able to invoice in renminbi. Benefits present themselves for investors and corporate currency risk managers as well because such a hub allows renminbi to be traded against
other currencies right from Switzerland. A Swiss renminbi hub is beneficial for both Switzerland
and China since it aids the achievement of the economic objectives that both countries embarked upon when they signed their free trade agreement.
Figure 3
Figure 4
Switzerland’s top seven export destinations
Exports in CHF billion
Offshore and onshore renminbi move in lockstep
Onshore = CNY, offshore = CNH
50
45
Hong Kong
China
UK
France
Italy
USA
Germany
6.90
Differential (right axis)
USD/CNH exchange rate
USD/CNY exchange rate
6.80
40
6.70
35
25
20
6.50
0.00
6.40
-0.05
6.30
15
0.10
0.05
6.60
30
0.15
-0.10
6.20
10
-0.15
6.10
5
6.00
2011
0
2005
2010
Source: Swiss Customs Administration, Credit Suisse
2012
-0.20
2012
2013
2014
2013
Source: Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse
6
2
The international renminbi market is growing rapidly
Switzerland holds potential
for renminbi investments
Switzerland is the world’s largest asset management hub, with more than CHF 6 trillion of assets under management. A little more than half of that stems from abroad, making Switzerland
the world leader in cross-border wealth management, ahead of Hong Kong and Singapore.
Switzerland correspondingly holds a lot of potential for the renminbi both as an investment currency and a currency for commerce.
Accord between Swiss
National Bank and
People’s Bank of China
A major step toward a Swiss renminbi hub was taken this summer when a bilateral currency
swap line agreement between the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the People’s Bank of China
(PBoC) went into effect in July 2014. This agreement allows renminbi and Swiss francs to be
purchased and repurchased between the two central banks up to a maximum limit of
CNY 150 billion, or CHF 21 billion. This enables the SNB to provide liquidity in renminbi when
needed, thus significantly enhancing security for investors. The swap line agreement has technical but also symbolic value: China is interested in cooperating also with Switzerland on its way
toward globalizing the renminbi.
Figure 5
Twenty-five bilateral swap line agreements with a total volume of over CNY 2.5 trillion
D
i Total volume in 2013, in CNY billion
3,000
e 400
Volume of bilateral swap line agreement
350
2,500
Aggregate volume (right axis)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
Hong Kong
ECB
South Korea
UK
Singapore
Brazil
Australia
Malaysia
Indonesia
Switzerland
Argentina
UAE
Thailand
Belarus
New Zealand
Ukraine
Turkey
Mongolia
Hungary
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Iceland
Kazakhstan
Albania
0
Uzbekistan
S
c 300
h 250
w
200
e
i 150
z
100
e
r 50
i
0
s
c
h
e
Source: Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, Credit Suisse, IDC
A clearing bank would
facilitate transaction
settlement
The bilateral renminbi swap agreements in place worldwide add up to an aggregate amount of
CNY 2.5 trillion, which equates to around CHF 388 billion (see Figure 5). As the next step toward becoming a renminbi hub, Switzerland would need a Chinese bank with authorization from
the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) to clear renminbi transactions. Clearing basically involves the reconciliation and confirmation of accounts required to conclude financial transactions. For practical considerations, a Chinese clearing bank to be set up in Switzerland would probably want to apply for a license to conduct other banking business as well. The
authorization and establishment of a Chinese clearing bank in Switzerland should thus be seen
as an investment in the interests of both countries.
Switzerland holds renminbi
investment potential…
The SNB itself is likely to make use of the opportunity to invest in renminbi. As part of the bilateral swap line agreement, the SNB has been granted a renminbi investment quota of approximately CHF 2 billion that it can use to invest in the Chinese bond market. Holding renminbi
assets enables the SNB to further diversify its foreign-exchange reserves. To gauge the potential of renminbi investments for private investors in Switzerland, it’s worth taking a look abroad.
Luxembourg is the largest investment fund hub in Europe, and mutual funds that invest in
renminbi assets are already available there. According to the Commission de Surveillance du
7
Secteur Financier (CSSF), renminbi-denominated funds and funds investing in renminbi assets1
account for around 10.7%, or EUR 256 billion, of the total assets under management in Luxembourg. EUR 194 billion of that is held in equity products (8.1%) and EUR 61.6 billion in
fixed-income products (2.6%). Evidently there is relatively high demand for renminbi assets.
…of CHF 340–600 billion
If we superimpose the 10.7% renminbi slice of investment fund center Luxembourg onto the
Swiss asset management hub, the CHF 6 trillion worth of total assets currently under management in Switzerland implies a renminbi market potential of approximately CHF 600 billion, which
equates to around CNY 3.8 trillion at today’s exchange rate. If we take into account that Swiss
investors have a higher preference for domestic assets (home bias) and accordingly apply a
smaller 2% renminbi asset share for them (a common allocation percentage used for mixing unconventional assets into a portfolio), the potential for renminbi financial products still amounts to
more than CHF 300 billion, or CNY 1.9 trillion. In addition to asset management, other renminbi
business is certainly also conceivable in the corporate client and investment banking segments,
but is not factored into the calculation above. According to SWIFT, in 2014 Swiss companies
have transacted 8% of their payments in their business dealings with China and Hong Kong in
renminbi. That figure is 31% higher than in 2013, but is lower than the numbers for other European countries (see Figure 6).
Figure 6
Swiss companies still make comparatively little use of the renminbi
International renminbi flows from and to China/Hong Kong as a percentage of total payments; increase/decrease in absolute
flows shown next to the country name
42%
Other
60%
74%
94%
64%
56%
88%
92%
77%
81%
58%
CNY
40%
26%
6%
36%
44%
2013
2014
Switzerland +31%
19%
23%
2013
2014
Germany +53.3%
2013
2014
Luxembourg -61%
12%
8%
2013
2014
UK +54.2%
2013
2014
France +23.9%
Source: SWIFT, Credit Suisse
1
See the CSSF website for the definition of “RMB-denominated funds and funds investing in RMB assets.”
8
Rapid growth of the international renminbi market
Asian markets vigorously harnessing renminbi potential
Offshore renminbi deposits in Asia
Renminbi deposits in CNY billion
Offshore investments in renminbi have increased by more
than CNY 1.4 trillion since mid-2009. The lion’s share of
that (around 70%) has gone to Hong Kong. But Taiwan
and Singapore, each home to around 15% of the world’s
offshore renminbi deposits, have also become major
renminbi trading hubs in the meantime even though
renminbi investments have only been possible in Taiwan
since the second quarter of 2013 and in Singapore only
since Q3 2013. Increases in demand by up to
CNY 200 billion annually enable a rapid catch-up and
clearly illustrate the needs of investors.
1600
Hong Kong
Taiwan
Singapore
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
08/2009
08/2011
08/2013
Source: Bloomberg, Monetary Authority of Singapore, Credit Suisse
Increased authorizations for onshore investments
Authorized QFII quotas
In CNY billion
The renminbi is gaining importance not just outside China.
China is increasingly opening its doors to onshore investments by qualified investors. A qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) can obtain a license authorizing the QFII
to trade stocks in China, i.e. the QFII can buy and sell
renminbi-denominated equities on Chinese onshore stock
exchanges such as Shanghai or Shenzhen. The volume
and number of authorizations are continually increasing
and have roughly doubled in magnitude over a year’s time.
The «Hongkong Shanghai Stock Connect» launched 17th
of. November 2014 will increase the volume of traded
Chinese equities and bonds.
400
QFII
350
300
250
200
150
100
07/2013 09/2013 11/2013 01/2014 03/2014 05/2014 07/2014
Source: SAFE, Credit Suisse
Already the seventh most important trade currency
New renminbi-denominated bond issuance
In CNY billion
The renminbi is rapidly gaining importance. In 2010, 3%
of goods worldwide were traded in renminbi. By the end of
2013, that sales percentage had sextupled to around
18%. End-2013 data from SWIFT indicate that the
renminbi has now become the world’s seventh most important trade currency, just ahead of the Swiss franc. The
renminbi bond issuance market has also gathered speed
since the start of 2010, going from zero to a volume of
more than CNY 700 billion, with the trend still pointed
upward. The renminbi and renminbi-denominated assets
belong in a globally diversified portfolio today under the
assumption that China’s currency will advance to become
a liquid world reserve currency.
100
90
Monthly global issuance volume
Cumulative monthly global issuance volume (right axis)
80
800
700
600
70
60
500
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
0
01/2010
01/2011
01/2012
01/2013
0
01/2014
Source: People’s Bank of China, Credit Suisse
9
10
3
Renminbi hub Switzerland: Credit Suisse plays an important role
Credit Suisse has
been active in China
since 1955
In the mid-1950s, Swiss banks were among the first Western institutions to establish relations
with Chinese counterparts: Credit Suisse did this back in 1955 with the Bank of China. In
1985, Credit Suisse opened a branch office in Beijing. Against the backdrop of the eastward
shift in the balance of global economic power and the Chinese currency’s increasingly important
role in foreign-exchange markets, in mid-2012 Credit Suisse advocated positioning Switzerland
internationally as a renminbi hub. That same year, Credit Suisse also began offering clients
basic products in the Chinese currency such as accounts, payment transactions and foreignexchange trading.
Active promotion of
financial dialogue
Together with other banks, Credit Suisse is intensely engaged at various levels in further bilateral cooperation in the financial sector. To this end, top representatives of commercial banks,
central banks and policymaking bodies in China and Switzerland met in late June 2014 at the
Credit Suisse seminar center at the invitation of the Swiss Bankers Association and the China
Banking Association. At this first joint financial roundtable, they discussed possible areas for
banking-related cooperation. Both sides particularly highlighted Switzerland’s strengths as an
economic center, which enhance Switzerland’s prospects of becoming a successful renminbi
hub. At the outset of the meeting, a memorandum of understanding regarding future cooperation between the two banking associations was signed, laying the groundwork for the next financial roundtable meeting, which is expected to take place in China in 2015.
The 2014 financial roundtable (from left to right): Patrick Odier, Chairman of the Swiss Bankers Association;
Thomas Jordan, Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank; Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the
People’s Bank of China; Urs Rohner, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Credit Suisse; Eveline WidmerSchlumpf, Swiss Federal Councilor and Swiss Finance Minister; Kaspar Villiger, former Swiss Federal Councilor
and former Chairman of the Board of Directors of UBS. Photographer: Sandra Amport
Operations for clients
As a bank for entrepreneurs, for years Credit Suisse has been successfully escorting its corporate clients through the first phase of the internationalization of the renminbi. With a variety of
products and with teams of specialists in Zurich, Hong Kong and China, Credit Suisse supports
enterprises in renminbi currency management, but also in dealing with general issues regarding
access to the large but complex Chinese market.
11
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