Doing Business in Brazil
Transcription
Doing Business in Brazil
Doing Business in Brazil Lauro Fiuza, Jr Vice President of ABEEólica March 2015 Top 10 Cummulative Capacity 2014 1 China 114.76 11 Sweden 5.42 2 USA 65.88 12 Portugal 4.91 3 Germany 39.16 13 Denmark 4.84 4 Spain 22.99 14 Poland 3.83 5 India 22.46 15 Australia 3.81 6 UK 12.44 16 Turkey 3.76 7 Canada 9.69 17 Romania 2.95 8 France 9.28 18 Poland 2.80 9 Italy 8.66 19 Japan 2.79 Brazil 5.96 20 Mexico 2.38 10 2012 15th 2.5 GW 2013 13th 3.4 GW Source: GWEC/ABEEólica 2014 10th 5.9 GW 2 Top 10 New Installed Capacity 2014 4th position 2012 8th 1.08 GW 2013 7th 0.95 GW Source: GWEC/ABEEólica 2014 4th 2.50 GW 3 Accumulated Installed Capacity (MW) Source: ABEEólica 4 Growth of Capacity Contracted and Forecast (MW) Capacity already contracted (16.5 GW) Capacity Contracted Additional Capacity (EPE) Forecast Source: ABEEólica/MME/EPE Additional Capacity (Sector) Forecast 5 Installed Capacity Piauí 4 (88.0 MW) Ceará 45 (1,256.3 MW) 2 Rio Grande do Norte 83 (2,345.2 MW) 1 Paraíba 13 (69.0 MW) Pernambuco 8 (104.7 MW) Sergipe 1 (34.5 MW) Bahia 40 (1,049.0 MW) 4 Rio de Janeiro 1 (28.0 MW) Paraná 1 (2.5 MW) Santa Catarina 13 (238.5 MW) 5 Rio Grande do Sul 43 (1,148.5 MW) 80% Renewable 3 20% Nonrenewable Able to Operate plants: 11 (310.8 MW) Source: ABEEólica 6 Energy Auctions Results – Auctions of 2014 Auction Contracted (MW) Maximum Price ($/MWh) Average Price ($/MWh) Negative goodwill (%) Investment (in billions) ($/MWh) 57.76 58.82 51.52 2.28 1.15 0.73 551.0 769.1 A-5 2014 926.0 59.11 59.50 51.89 Total 2,246.1 -- -- -- 1.10 1.43 1.58 4.11 Average -- 56.84 56.03 1.39% -- WTG estimative (2MW) Blades Estimative 50 276 827 43 385 1,154 47 463 1,389 -- 1,123 3,369 47 -- -- Updated Prices (Dec/14) A-3 2014 LER 2014 Capacity Factor (%) Exchange rate at the auction date. Source: ABEEólica/ccee 7 Auction Results per Year Energy Auctions (New plants) Energy Auctions (New plants) All Sources Wind Energy Year Capacity (GW) Year Capacity (GW) 2009 1.88 2009 1.81 2010 5.95 2010 2.05 2011 5.17 2011 2.91 2012 0.57 2012 0.28 2013 7.15 2013 4.71 2014 7.61 2014 2.25 Total 28.32 Total 14.00 Annual Average 4.72 Annual Average 2.33 Atypical year Average without 2012 = 5.5 GW/year Atypical year Average without 2012 = 2.7 GW/year Wind Power representes 50% of all new PPAs (2009-2014) Target Source: ABEEólica/CCEE 2.0 8 Auctions - 2015 New Energy Auction (A-3) Alternative Source Auction (LFA) • Realization: 04/27/2015 • Realization: 07/24/2015 • Sources: • Sources: o Wind o Wind o Biomass o Small Hydro • Begin of Energy Supply (Wind): 07/01/2017 o Biomass • PPA supply period: 20 years o Natural Gas thermal • Registration: Source Wind Biomass TOTAL Number of plants 530 40 570 Capacity (MW) % 12,895 86.2% 2,067 13.8% 14,962 100% • Begin of Energy Supply (Wind): 01/01/2018 • PPA supply period: 30 years for Small Hydro and 20 year for all others • Registration : Source Wind Small Hydro Biomass Natural Gas Thermal TOTAL Source: ABEEólica/MME/EPE Number of plants 475 15 13 18 521 Capacity (MW) % 11,476 201 604 6,648 60.6% 1.1% 3.2% 35.1% 18,929 100% 9 Auctions - 2015 2nd Reserve Energy Auction (LER) 1st Reserve Energy Auction (LER) • Realization: 08/14/2015 • Realization: 11/13/2015 • Sources: • Sources: o Solar o Wind • Begin of Energy Supply (Wind): 08/01/2017 • PPA supply period: 20 years o Solar • Begin of Energy Supply (Wind): 01/11/2018 • PPA supply period: 20 years Source: ABEEólica/MME/EPE 10 Operating Performance “On 11/25/2014 there was another record of wind generation at Northeast subsystem, 2,315 MW, with 81% of capacity factor, representing 21% of total power generation.” System Operator - ONS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: ABEEólica Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 11 Wind Characteristics in Brazil Northeast South Wind Direction – Oct, 2013 Frequency (%) Frequency (%) Wind Direction – Oct, 2013 Direction Direction Wind Speed (m/s) – Oct, 2013 Average Speed (m/s) Average Speed (m/s) Wind Speed (m/s) – Oct, 2013 Time (%) Time (%) Source: AMA/EPE 12 Operating Performance (Without PROINFA) Average = 43% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Source: ABEEólica Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 13 Benefits and Indexes of Wind 2014 6 millions of houses supplied monthy, average 3 millions of tons of CO2 avoided US$ 6.2 billions were invested on wind sector US$ 1.8 billions of economic charges avoided 12 TWh of wind generation Exchange rate = US$ 2.35 Source: ABEEólica/ccee/BNEF 14 Certificate of Renewable Energy • Goal: foster energy market generated from renewable and encouraged sources with high performance in terms of sustainability. • Types of certification: ➢ Certification of renewable energy generation plants eligible; ➢ Stamp concession facing consumers of certified energy. Electrical Energy Wind Generator Social and environmental attributes 15 Advantages • Long Term Credit • BNDES: competitive long terms • Credit Lines for Manufacturers • FINAME from BNDES • Tax Incentives (Federal, State and Municipal) 16 FINAME (Financing for machinery and equipment) • • What is this? FINAME’s resource is earmarked for financing purchase and sales operations and exports of Brazilian machinery and equipment, as well as imports of goods of the same nature produced overseas. How to get it? There are goals to be achieved gradually to register the equipment as a FINAME equipment. Starting Point • January 1st, 2013 Stage A-2 • July 1st, 2013 Stage A-3 • January 1st, 2014 Stage A-4 • July 1st, 2014* Stage A-5 • January 1st, 2015* Stage A-6 * Some goals of these stages were postpone. • January 1st, 2016 FINAME Rules Stage A-6 Stage A-5 Stage A-4 Stage A-3 Stage A-2 Starting Point (Reach 3 of 4) • Tower Fabrication (70%) - itself unit or third parties • Blades Fabrication - itself unit or third parties • Hub Assembly itself unit • Nacell Assembly - itself unit • Tower Fabrication (70%) - itself unit or third parties • Hub Assembly with national internal components itself unit • Nacell Assembly - itself unit • Tower Fabrication with national internal components itself unit or third parties • Blades Fabrication (40%) - itself unit or third parties • Hub Assembly with national internal components itself unit • Nacell Assembly - itself unit • Blades Fabrication (50%) - itself unit or third parties • Hub Assembly with national internal components itself unit • Nacell Assembly - itself unit • Tower Fabrication with 60% of national forged - itself unit or third parties • Blades Fabrication (60%) - itself unit or third parties • Hub Assembly with national internal components itself unit • Nacell Assembly - itself unit • Nacell Assembly with national components itself unit Wind portfolio of BNDES - Evolution 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 Exchange rate = US$ 2.5 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Approvals Financing Wind Farms Forecast 2014: Growth of 15% compared to 2013 approvals 19 Opportunities • Local Content Demand • Consistent Growth of Wind Power within the Power Matrix • High Demand for Business Services and Consulting • Independent O&M Players • Training Programs for Industry Professionals 20 Challenges • Early Stage Industry • Labor Opportunities • Technology • Adjustment to Brazilian wind conditions • R&D • Grid • Infrastructure 21 Members 22 Thank You! CONTACT: Lauro Fiuza Junior + 55 11 2368-0680 [email protected] www.abeeolica.org.br Bons Ventos Aracati Wind Farm 23