April 2016 Trends.indd - Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce

APRIL 2016
Volume 36 Number 4
ISSN 0160-3345
HOW ALASKA’S INDUSTRIES STACK UP
We’ll probably never look exactly like the rest of the na on, and here’s why
PAGE 4
By NEAL FRIED
HYDER ... ALASKA?
Unusual Southeast border town embraces dual nature
PAGE 7
By SARA WHITNEY
INFLATION LOWEST SINCE 1988
PAGE 11
Energy cost drop was biggest change in Anchorage Consumer Price Index
By NEAL FRIED
THE MONTH IN NUMBERS
PAGE 13
To request a free electronic or print subscrip on, e-mail [email protected] or call (907) 465-4500.
Trends is on the Web at labor.alaska.gov/trends.
ALASKA DEPARTMENT
of LABOR
and WORKFORCE
DEVELOPMENT
Dan Robinson
Chief, Research and Analysis
Sara Whitney
Editor
Sam Dapcevich
Cover Ar st
Bill Walker
Governor
Heidi Drygas
Commissioner
ON THE COVER: Patrick O’Brien of Southeast Earthmovers Inc. pushes rock for a
2.7 acre habitat island that will be part of Juneau’s Downtown Seawalk project.
Photo by Sam Dapcevich
Alaska Economic Trends is a monthly publica on whose purpose is to objec vely inform the public about a wide variety of economic issues in the state.
Trends is funded by the Employment and Training Services Division of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and is published by the
department’s Research and Analysis Sec on. Trends is printed and distributed by Assets, Inc., a voca onal training and employment program, at a cost of
$1.37 per copy. Material in this publica on is public informa on, and with appropriate credit may be reproduced without permission.
2
APRIL 2016
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
NaƟve corporaƟons a vital piece of our economic future
The impact of low oil prices on the state
budget is dominating headlines and discussions about Alaska’s economic future.
Speculation about the impact of oil prices
and the state budget on our economy too
often neglect the significant role Alaska
Native Corporations play in Alaska job
creation. Like other factors identified in
this month’s Trends, ANCs are a key part
of our economy that will help us endure
economic challenges.
Heidi Drygas
Commissioner
Kim Reitmeier
CEO, ANCSA
Regional Associa on
Follow the Alaska
Department of
Labor and Workforce
Development on
Facebook (facebook.
com/alaskalabor)
and Twi er (twi er.
com/alaskalabor)
for the latest
news about jobs,
workplace safety,
and workforce
development.
During 2014, the most recent year for
which data are available, the 12 Alaska
Native regional corporations represented
57 percent of gross revenue and 63 percent of employment among Alaska’s largest 49 businesses. In other words, among
our state’s largest employers, ANCs generate the most jobs and revenue. In addition, ANCs doubled their profits over the
last year. Higher profitability translates
into greater shareholder equity and dividends, both of which strengthen Alaska’s
economy by stimulating aggregate demand. In 2014, ANCs generated $8 billion
in revenue and reinvested nearly $200
million into Alaska’s economy in the form
of shareholder dividends.
ANCs’ success is noteworthy because
they also have a core mission of improving quality of life for shareholders in their
regions. Decades before “triple bottom
line” goals of social and environmental
objectives became common in other firms,
ANCs established a socially responsible
model for investing in their shareholders
and their regions. One component of corporate social responsibility is a shareholder hire preference, which reduces unemployment in rural Alaska and helps meet
Governor Walker’s goal of Alaska Hire.
This vital social mission is a direct result
of the vision of Willie Hensley, Byron
Mallott, and other founders, which was
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
embedded in the Alaska Native Claims
Settlement Act of 1971.
Historically, ANC investments were
concentrated in government contracting.
Today, regional corporations have substantially diversified their investments
into real estate, construction, professional
services, and other lines of business.
Geographic and sectoral diversification
reduces risk and positions ANCs to thrive
despite changes in commodity prices or
federal contracting policies. This stability is crucial when oil prices are likely to
reduce employment in our state’s oilfield
services sector. While some economists
project that oil and construction will
shrink over the next year, diversified
ANCs are less likely to be negatively affected by turbulent resource prices.
In addition to providing employment opportunities, ANCs act as partners in our
workforce development system. ANC
subsidiaries such as Doyon Associated
and Brice Construction help manage registered apprenticeship programs through
joint apprenticeship training committees
with the building trades. NANA’s Red
Dog mine operates a model registered
apprenticeship program for millwrights.
Regardless of the training mechanisms
ANCs use, they all prioritize shareholder
hire, which helps meet our state objective
of improving Alaska Hire.
This month’s Trends discusses some
unique features of Alaska’s economy. In
the future we expect more diversification,
partly because of ANCs. With billions
of dollars in revenue, tens of thousands
of jobs, and training programs focused
on Alaska Hire, ANCs can help Alaska’s
economy endure and ultimately grow despite low oil prices and a shrinking state
budget.
APRIL 2016
3
How Alaskaʼs
INDUSTRIES STACK UP
We’ll probably never look exactly like the rest of the U.S., and here’s why
1
Detailed Industry Breakdown
By NEAL FRIED
A
laska’s mix of industries has grown to look a bit
more like the rest of the na on over me, but
we’re s ll a long ways off. It’s also unlikely we’ll
ever mimic the na onal economy.
U.S., 2015
Natural Resources
Mining
Oil and Gas
Construction
Manufacturing
Seafood Processing
Trade
Wholesale
Retail
Transportation
Air
Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Professional and Business Svcs
Education and Health Services
Health Care
Leisure and Hospitality
Accomodation
Food Svcs and Drinking Places
Other Services
Government
Federal Government
State Government
Local Government
Alaska
5.1%
5.0%
4.2%
5.2%
4.2%
3.0%
13.0%
1.9%
11.1%
5.8%
1.8%
0.6%
1.9%
3.6%
8.8%
13.9%
10.2%
10.3%
2.5%
6.3%
3.4%
24.2%
4.4%
7.6%
12.2%
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce
Development, Research and Analysis SecƟon; and U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StaƟsƟcs
4
APRIL 2016
U.S.
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
4.5%
8.7%
0.0%
15.2%
4.1%
11.0%
3.4%
0.3%
0.4%
1.9%
5.7%
13.9%
15.5%
10.6%
10.7%
1.4%
7.8%
4.0%
15.5%
1.9%
3.6%
10.0%
A
In no other state do oil, tourism, fishing, and the
federal government play such fundamental roles. And
given the small size of our economy, its seasonality,
our expansive geography, and our largely public land
ownership and natural resource endowment, Alaskans
will likely con nue to hold a unique mix of jobs.
Where we have much less
Manufacturing
Although the country’s manufacturing industry is much
smaller than it used to be, the average U.S. worker is
s ll more than twice as likely as an Alaskan to work in
manufacturing, at nearly 9 percent versus 4 percent.
(See Exhibit 1.)
Digging a bit deeper reveals an even bigger difference.
Seventy-one percent of Alaska’s manufacturing jobs
are ed to seafood processing, versus less than half
a percent na onally. Manufacturing here and na onwide are really two different industries.
On a related note, a worker is 100 mes more likely
to be a commercial seafood harvester in Alaska than
na onwide. Because fishermen are self-employed and
can’t be compared with any of the other job numbers
in this ar cle, they’re harder to measure, but using
2012 federal es mates allows a general comparison.
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
2
Percent of Total Employment by Major Industry
A
.
, 2015
Alaska
United States
Oil and Gas
4.3% ŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶ
5.4%
Rest of Employment
26.5%
Oil and Gas
0.3%
ŽŶƐƚƌƵĐƟŽŶ
4.5%
Retail
11.0%
Retail
11.3%
Rest of Employment
32.1%
dƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶ
5.8%
Professional and
Business Services
8.5%
dƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶ
3.4%
Health Care
10.6%
Health Care
10.1%
Professional and
Business Services
13.9%
Government
24.1%
Manufacturing
8.7%
Government
15.5%
Manufacturing
4.0%
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce
Development, Research and Analysis SecƟon
Financial and professional services
Alaska is home to many real estate, tle, and mortgage
offices; banks; insurance companies; credit unions; and
security firms — collec vely categorized as “financial
ac vi es” — but their percentage of our employment
falls well below the na onal average.
One major reason is that Alaska isn’t home to many
na onal or regional headquarters for any financial or
insurance firm. Financial service companies here only
provide local services.
It’s a similar story with professional and business services in that many of these companies cater to larger
corporate opera ons, which are underrepresented in
Alaska. Alaska’s smaller economy is also not as specialized. This broad category includes legal, accoun ng,
waste, consul ng, and landscaping services as well as
holding companies, call and telemarke ng centers, and
computer design firms, to name just a few.
Where we have much more
Government
Nearly a quarter of all payroll jobs in Alaska are in government, versus 16 percent na onwide. A decade ago,
it was 31 percent in Alaska.
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
StaƟsƟcs
Alaskans are more than twice as likely to work for the
federal or state government. Our share of federal jobs
is propor onally bigger than any other state, mostly
because we have a large military presence (though
ac ve-duty military aren’t included in these numbers)
and the federal government is our largest landlord.
Like the federal government, state government has
a large land base and natural resource base to manage. It also has some atypical responsibili es such as
managing the Alaska Permanent Fund, the Alaska Railroad, Alaska Housing Finance Corpora on, and many
airports. The State of Alaska also carries responsibilies that local governments handle elsewhere, such
as courts, prisons, and public safety for many smaller
communi es.
Alaska’s local government presence is just slightly higher than the na on’s. See the May 2015 issue of Alaska
Economic Trends, “Government Jobs by State,” for addi onal explana on.
Oil and gas
In 2015, 4.2 percent of Alaska’s wage and salary jobs
were in the oil and gas industry. While that doesn’t
sound like a large number, it’s more than 14 mes the
percentage for the na on as whole. Or, said differently,
0.3 percent of the na on’s workers are employed by
APRIL 2016
5
the oil industry. (See Exhibit 2.) That may seem surprising, because the oil industry has been through an
enormous growth spurt na onally in recent years. Between 2005 and 2015, na onal oil employment grew
by 73 percent, or 202,000 jobs. That did bump up U.S.
oil employment, from 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent, but
compared to Alaska its share is barely on the radar.
Some companies cater to larger
corporate operaƟons, which are underrepresented in Alaska. Alaska’s
smaller economy is also not as specialized.
TransportaƟon
Our vast geography makes transporta on more important, tying nearly 6 percent of Alaska’s private jobs to
transporta on versus 3 percent for the U.S.
It takes a lot more to move something or someone
in Alaska than it does elsewhere. For example, what
might involve a single truck delivery in most of the naon o en requires a truck, ship, airplane, and maybe a
four-wheeler in Alaska.
In addi on to all the extra effort it takes to get around
the state, transporta on’s larger role here includes one
of the busiest interna onal air cargo airports in the
country and a sizable visitor sector.
Where we look about the same
Health care
If this ar cle had been wri en a decade ago, health
care would have been under the “where we have less”
segment. But because health care played catch-up for
decades and grew considerably faster than na onal
health care, it has finally reached nearly the same share
of total employment. In the process, it has become
one of the largest employers in the state and, hands
down, the largest generator of new jobs in the last few
decades.
ConstrucƟon
Retail
Some Alaskans may not believe it, as we seem to have
fewer buying op ons, but the retail industry is Alaska’s
largest private employer and is as propor onately deep
as the na on’s.
Both statewide and na onally, 11 percent of workers are in retail trade. This wasn’t always the case in
Alaska, but with the meteoric growth of new retailers
that began in the early 1990s, Alaska caught up with
the rest of the country.
For small communi es with fewer local buying op ons,
the rise of online shopping has bridged some of the
gap. There’s some evidence that Alaskans rank among
the na on’s most ardent online shoppers.
It’s a different story at the wholesale trade level, where
Alaska has half the representa on of the rest of the
country. Sea le and other Lower 48 ci es con nue to
serve this need for Alaska.
The visitor sector
Given the size of the state’s visitor sector, it is not surprising that propor onately more Alaska jobs are in accommoda ons such as hotels and bed-and-breakfasts.
But when it comes to bars and restaurants, Alaska s ll
6
has some catching up to do. In the June 2015 issue of
Alaska Economic Trends, “Bar and Restaurant Jobs in
Alaska,” Alaska ranked 49th in the country for its share
of employment in food and drinking places.
APRIL 2016
Given our young state’s infrastructure needs and
construc on’s historical role in our economic development, one might expect Alaska’s construc on workforce to be propor onately much larger than the naon’s. And before the 1990s, it was.
But since then, instead of leading the state’s economic
growth with such events as the construc on of the
Trans-Alaska Oil Pipeline, it has taken the lesser role
of accommoda ng general popula on and economic
growth, becoming only slightly bigger propor onally
than the na onal construc on sector.
InformaƟon and other services
The informa on industry is largely made up of the
media, including television and radio sta ons, newspapers, cable companies, publishers, and telecommunica ons. The makeup of “other services” is even more
eclec c and includes businesses involved in maintenance and repairs, funeral homes, laundromats, and
civic and social organiza ons. In all of these categories, Alaskans and Americans overall consume similar
amounts of services.
Neal Fried is an economist in Anchorage. Reach him at (907) 2694861 or [email protected].
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
Hyder,
. . .A lask a?
Unusual Southeast border town embraces its dual nature
By SARA WHITNEY
t first, Hyder might look like a cartographer’s
mistake. The easternmost town in Alaska juts
out from the Southeast Panhandle into what
looks like Canadian territory on the other side of the
Salmon River, and for all prac cal purposes, it’s a cultural and physical part of Bri sh Columbia.
A
Hyder is one of the few communi es in Southeast Alaska accessible by road — but its road isn’t connected to
Alaska, and weekly ferry service from Ketchikan ended
in the early 1990s. Instead, Hyder’s road leads into the
larger, Canadian town of Stewart, two miles from the
U.S. border.
B.C. travelers can drive right into Hyder, and therefore into the United States, without passing through
border security. However, they’re stopped once they
try to reenter Canada — and that’s only allowed during certain hours, a fairly recent and controversial
change.
Part of Canada, more or less
The Alaska town of less than 100 residents has long
embraced its dual nature. Although Hyder is on Alaska
me, it runs unofficially on Pacific me with the rest
of B.C. With the excep on of Hyder’s U.S. Post Office,
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
The sign on Hyder’s general store provides some local demographic
informa on. Photo by Flickr user Zoe52
both towns accept Canadian and U.S. currency. The
towns share an interna onal chamber of commerce,
residents mark both countries’ holidays, and Hyder’s
electricity and phone service come from a Canadian
company. Calling Hyder requires a 250 B.C. area code,
and it’s the only town in Alaska without the 907 prefix. If you call the Alaska State Troopers, they’ll dispatch the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.
For many travelers and Canadians, passing through
Hyder is a quick way to cross visi ng Alaska off their
bucket list. That’s brought some recogni on to the
APRIL 2016
7
Stewart
lm
on
Riv
er
Bear
Sa
River
Gla
cier
Hw
y
To Premier and Granduc Mines (abandoned)
Canada
Tidelands
Alaska
al
Hyder
nd
Ca
n
Tidelands
2 Miles
Hyder
tla
1
Po
r
0
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis SecƟon
town, which has also garnered interna onal a enon (whatever that means in this case) from two films
being shot there. A 1982 remake of “The Thing” was
filmed at the Granduc Mine near Stewart, and 2002’s
“Insomnia,” starring Al Pacino and Robin Williams,
was par ally filmed in Hyder and Stewart.
What’s less well-known or understood is why Hyder
belongs to Alaska in the first place.
Few strong Ɵes with Southeast
Hyder lies at the head of Portland Canal, a 130-mile
ord that forms a natural border between the United
States and Canada. The town is about 75 air miles
from Ketchikan, but that’s where its associa on with
Southeast Alaska appears to end.
In 2006, Hyder residents strongly opposed joining an
expanded Ketchikan Gateway Borough or the newly
created Wrangell Borough. They didn’t want to be
part of any borough if they could help it, but agreed
to be part of a new census area called Prince of
Wales-Hyder.
8
APRIL 2016
Although residents are mostly Americans, the town’s
es to the much-larger Stewart — whose popula on
fluctuates between 500 and 750 — are closer and go
way back.
1
Popula on Under 100
H
, 2010
2015
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce
Development, Research and Analysis SecƟon
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
a line down the middle of Portland Canal,
which bisected the adjacent peninsula and
gave the western half to Alaska.
From there, with discoveries of gold and
silver lodes, Hyder formed on the western
side of the peninsula with Stewart on the
east, and the popula on began to climb.
From mining to tourism
In the early 20th century, prospectors
on the American side of the peninsula
applied for a U.S. Post Office under the
name “Portland City,” but the government
rejected the request, saying too many U.S.
ci es already used the word “Portland.”
Hyder was then named a er Canadian
mining engineer Frederick Hyder, who
predicted great mineral success for the
town. He was par ally correct.
The U.S. Post Office in Hyder is the one place in town that doesn’t accept Canadian currency.
Photo by Flickr user Eugenio Vacca
The struggle over the U.S. border
The area was originally inhabited by a Canadian tribe,
the Nisga’a, but as with much of the north, the popula on changed with the discovery of gold in the late
1800s. What followed was a dispute between Canada
and the United States over who got what land, driven
by the desire for be er access during the Gold Rush.
The rub was some wording in the Anglo-Russian Conven on of 1825, a treaty that defined borders when
the U.S. bought Alaska from Russia. The path the border was to take through the Portland Canal area was
so vague and so vehemently disputed that it required
interna onal arbitra on.
Great Britain and
‘the big betrayal’
Canada’s proposal would have claimed much of Southeast Alaska, including what are now Juneau, Skagway,
Wrangell, and Ketchikan. Ul mately, though, the U.S.
succeeded in pushing its border farther east, thanks to
Great Britain.
Canada asked Britain to sit on the 1903 Boundary
Commission to help the two sides nego ate, but
Britain sided with the U.S., raising the ire of many Canadians and contribu ng to the rise of the Canadian
independence movement. Historians believe the decision was a strategic move to garner American support for other Bri sh interests.
Ul mately, the boundary commission chose to draw
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
Hyder and Stewart were mining towns
through the first half of the 20th century, with Hyder
as the access point.
Hyder’s mining industry boomed through the 1920s
and ’30s with extrac on of silver, gold, copper, lead,
zinc, and tungsten. Its popula on peaked at 254 in
1930.
But when the town’s Riverside Mine closed in 1950,
the popula on bo omed out at 30 people. A er that,
major mining was limited to the Canadian side, and it
remained strong un l the mid-1980s.
2
Older, With More Men
H
, 2010
Over 85
80 to 84
75 to 79
70 to 74
65 to 69
60 to 64
55 to 59
50 to 54
45 to 49
40 to 44
35 to 39
30 to 34
25 to 29
20 to 24
15 to 19
10 to 14
5 to 9
Under 5
Male
Female
0
5
10
15
20
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census
APRIL 2016
9
Since the shi away from mining, Hyder’s economy has relied
mainly on visitor traffic. In 2015,
the town had 15 ac ve business
licenses, and most were tourismrelated.
3
Low Average Wages for Residents
H
.
, 2014
Under $5,000
$5,000 to $9,999
$10,000 to $19,999
CreaƟve markeƟng
over the years
$20,000 to $49,999
$50,000 and over
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
In the 1960s, Hyder marketed
Hyder
Statewide
itself as the “Friendliest Ghost
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis
Town in Alaska.” Today, tourists
SecƟon
can get “Hyderized” at a local
bar by ordering a special shot
of 190-proof Everclear. But the
rest of Alaska.
town’s most industrious revenue-genera ng project
was probably the water bo ling plant.
The town’s popula on, which has fluctuated between
75 and 100 since 1990, was es mated at 82 in 2015.
About 15 years ago, the town built a 73,000-square(See Exhibit 1.)
foot plant to market its glacially fed groundwater.
The lack of an operator and distribu on problems
As of the 2010 Census, it was 59 percent male, with a
brought the $1 million project to a halt, however, afmedian age of 54.8 — considerably older than Alaster four years of work. Ge ng the product to market,
ka’s 33.8 years at that me. (See Exhibit 2.)
from an American town landlocked in Canada, was
the biggest problem.
Also in 2010, residents were 90.8 percent white, 1.1
percent Alaska Na ve or American Indian, 1.1 percent
Today, the now-defunct bo ling plant is where HyPacific Islander, and 6.9 percent other or two-plus
der’s children a end school.
races. In contrast, Alaska was 69.3 percent white, 15.6
percent Alaska Na ve, 5.4 percent mul -race, 3.5 percent black, 4.0 percent Asian, and 0.5 percent Pacific
Town has few local services
Islander.
For many years, children a ended school in Stewart.
However, Hyder now has its own school, part of the
Less than half are employed
Southeast Island School District. About 13 children
meet at the old water bo ling plant.
Hyder had 65 residents over the age of 16 in 2014.
The nonprofit Hyder Community Associa on conJust 40 percent were employed, which doesn’t factor
tracts with the Alaska Department of Transporta on
in self-employment and a handful of federal jobs, nor
and Public Facili es to provide road maintenance. But
anyone who works in Stewart.
beyond that, the town has no municipal government
and few basic services.
The majority of those employed in Hyder weren’t
employed year-round, which is reflected in its lowerResidents rely on wells and sep c systems, and the
than-average
yearly wage for residents. (See Exhibit
town has a landfill. According to the associa on, the
3.)
town plans to work with the state to come up with a
be er arrangement.
The low percentage in the labor force is also due to
Hyder’s considerably older popula on, many of whom
An older, largely white populaƟon are
re rement age. Of residents working for an employer
in 2014, 62 percent were over the age of 50.
Although demographic data for a place this small are
scarce, they provide a reasonable picture of who lives
there. With an older, largely male, and almost en rely
Sara Whitney is the editor of Alaska Economic Trends. Reach her
in Juneau at (907) 465-6561 or [email protected].
white popula on, Hyder doesn’t look much like the
10
APRIL 2016
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
Inflation Lowest
Since 1988
Energy cost drop was the biggest change in Anchorage Consumer Price Index
child support payments, and real estate agreements.
Also, beginning next year, Alaska’s minimum wage will
be adjusted annually according to the infla on rate.
By NEAL FRIED
t isn’t big news to most Alaskans that energy prices
have fallen drama cally over the past year. We’re
reminded every me we fill our cars or read the
news, and we know that falling oil prices have put a
major damper on our state budget. But infla on went
up just half a percent in 2015, largely related to that
price drop, and that’s also big news because it affects
us in a number of other ways.
I
Energy prices and transportaƟon
The Anchorage Consumer Price Index, which measures
the change in the values of goods and services in the
city, shows energy costs fell by 10.3 percent in 2015,
the largest annual decline since 2009. (See Exhibit 2.)
Gasoline prices alone fell nearly 25 percent.
The infla on rate of 0.5 percent for Anchorage, which
has the state’s only consumer price index, is the lowest
recorded since 1988. (See Exhibit 1.) This rate is ed
to bargaining agreements and wage rate nego a ons,
1
Energy is the most vola le category of the consumer
price index, and it has a big effect on transporta on,
which correspondingly fell by nearly 7 percent last
Infla on Was 0.5 Percent in 2015
A
, 2005
2015
4.6%
3.1%
3.2%
3.2%
2.2%
3.1%
2.2%
1.8%
1.6%
1.2%
0.5%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StaƟsƟcs
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
APRIL 2016
11
2
Energy Prices Took a Nose Dive
P
Y
, 2005
17.0%
year. A er housing, transporta on has the
second-largest “weight” in the consumer
price index at 16 percent, which refers to
the percentage of a household’s income
they spend in that category.
2015
15.4%
13.9%
11.2%
9.5%
9.0%
5.5%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-3.0%
2015
-7.0%
-10.3%
-18.4%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StaƟsƟcs
3
Price Changes for Various Goods
A
, 2015
ůů/ƚĞŵƐ
0.5%
ŶĞƌŐLJ
-10.3%
&ŽŽĚĂŶĚĞǀĞƌĂŐĞƐ
ůŽƚŚŝŶŐ
-6.8%
1.7%
0.5%
dƌĂŶƐƉŽƌƚĂƟŽŶ
,ŽƵƐŝŶŐ
Medical
ZĞĐƌĞĂƟŽŶ 0.1%
Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StaƟsƟcs
The drop in energy prices has li le effect
on the cost of hea ng in most Anchorage
homes, though. Most use natural gas, for
which prices are regulated by the Alaska
Regulatory Commission.
It may seem counterintui ve, but Anchorage’s piped gas prices increased by 7 percent in 2015, while in the mostly unregulated U.S. overall, they fell by 12 percent
and pushed na onal infla on rates even
lower than Anchorage’s. Na onal infla on
was 0.1 percent in 2015, the second-lowest rate since 1960.
Other categories fell too
Lower energy prices weren’t the only reason the infla on rate hit a near-historical
low. (See Exhibit 3.) Food, the category
with the third-largest weight, increased
just 1.7 percent, in contrast to the 10-year
average of 2.7 percent annually. Clothing
prices also increased by just half a percent, and the cost for recrea on remained
nearly the same.
Housing was an excepƟon
2.4%
3.3%
Because consumers spend the largest
chunk of their money on housing each
year, it’s the category with the largest
weight at 41 percent. Anchorage housing
costs went up 2.4 percent in 2015, which
was above the decade average of 2.0
percent. Some of that jump was due to
Anchorage homes using natural gas. If Anchorage homes used fuel oil, like most of
the state outside Southcentral, the cost of
housing would have increased less.
Among all the major categories in the
index, medical costs increased the most.
This was no surprise, as no other category
has come close to health care’s cost increases since the early 1980s.
Neal Fried is an economist in Anchorage. Reach
him at (907) 269-4861 or [email protected].
12
APRIL 2016
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
The Month in Numbers
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
United States
Alaska Statewide
Prelim.
2/16
4.9
6.6
How Alaska Ranks
Revised
1/16 2/15
4.9
5.5
6.6
6.4
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
United States
5.2
Alaska Statewide
7.7
5.3
7.3
5.8
7.4
Anchorage/Mat-Su Region
Municipality of Anchorage
Matanuska-Susitna Borough
6.7
5.8
9.6
6.3
5.4
9.1
6.2
5.4
8.9
Gulf Coast Region
Kenai Peninsula Borough
Kodiak Island Borough
Valdez-Cordova Census Area
9.5
10.2
5.1
12.1
9.0
9.4
5.6
11.6
9.0
9.4
5.1
12.6
Interior Region
Denali Borough
Fairbanks North Star Borough
Southeast Fairbanks CA
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area
7.8
21.7
6.6
13.3
20.8
7.6
22.2
6.4
12.8
19.5
7.6
22.0
6.3
13.3
21.2
Northern Region
Nome Census Area
North Slope Borough
Northwest Arc c Borough
11.3
13.0
5.9
17.3
10.4
12.1
5.3
15.9
11.1
12.9
5.6
17.2
Southeast Region
Haines Borough
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area
Juneau, City and Borough
Ketchikan Gateway Borough
Petersburg Borough
Prince of Wales-Hyder CA
Sitka, City and Borough
Skagway, Municipality
Wrangell, City and Borough
Yakutat, City and Borough
8.5
17.1
21.2
5.3
9.3
11.8
16.7
5.9
25.3
11.0
11.7
8.1
14.9
19.6
5.1
8.8
11.3
16.5
5.9
22.9
11.0
11.6
8.6
16.4
23.3
5.4
9.2
12.0
16.4
6.0
23.7
10.3
11.5
Southwest Region
Aleu ans East Borough
Aleu ans West Census Area
Bethel Census Area
Bristol Bay Borough
Dillingham Census Area
Kusilvak Census Area
Lake and Peninsula Borough
11.2
2.5
2.5
15.0
15.2
10.5
24.9
16.7
11.0
3.2
2.8
14.4
13.8
9.7
23.7
16.4
11.7
2.5
3.2
15.8
21.2
10.0
24.9
17.7
Unemployment Rate1
1st
New Hampshire
and S. Dakota
2.7%
50th
6.6%
Job Growth1
1st
Idaho
3.9%
43rd
0.2%
50th
N. Dakota
-4.8%
Personal
Income2
1st
California
$2,061 billion
46th
$41 billion
50th
N. Hampshire
$30 billion
Per Capita Personal
Income Growth3
1st
California
5.3%
20th
50th
N. Dakota
-2.6%
3.6%
Job Growth in Alaska and the NaƟon4
3%
2%
1%
0
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
Alaska
U.S.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
All data sources are U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta s cs and Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research and Analysis Sec on, unless
otherwise noted.
1
February 2016
2
2015
3
Percent change, 2014 to 2015
4
Annual average percent change
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS
APRIL 2016
13
Safety Minute
Safety and Health Conference set for April 6 and 7
The Alaska Safety Advisory Council, along with the
Alaska Occupational Safety and Health section of
the Department of Labor and Workforce Development, will sponsor the 35th Annual Governor’s Safety
and Health Conference April 6-7 at Anchorage’s
downtown Dena’ina Center.
The theme for this year is “Safety Excellence: The
Continuous Process,” focusing on meeting frontline safety and health needs of Alaska’s industries.
AKOSH will host a pre-conference on Tuesday, April
5 and offer 10-hour construction and general industry courses. A post-conference will be held April 8
from 8 a.m. to 1 p.m. that will focus on hazard recognition in the workplace.
More than 55 exhibitors will participate. ASAC has
selected more than 40 experienced and qualified
speakers to present, primarily on workplace safety
and regulatory requirements such as confined space,
trenching and excavation, electrical hazards, and
global harmonization.
To register and see a detailed schedule of exhibitors, sponsors, and presenters go to akgshc.com/
For a confidential, cost-free evaluation of your work
site or help developing your business’ safety and
health program, contact AKOSH Consultation and
Training at 1251 Muldoon Road, Suite 10, Anchorage, AK 99504 or (800) 656-4972.
Safety Minute is wri en by the Labor Standards and Safety Division of
the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
Employer Resources
Some employers must give shutdown, layoff notice
The Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification
Act, or WARN, protects workers and communities by
requiring some employers to provide 60 days’ notice
before certain types of plant closings and mass layoffs.
Private employers, including nonprofits, are covered by WARN laws, as are public and quasi-public
entities that operate in a commercial context and
are separately organized from regular government.
WARN does not apply to regular federal, state, and
local governments that provide public services.
In general, employers must adhere to WARN if they
have 100 or more employees, not counting employees who have worked less than six of the last
12 months or those who work less than 20 hours a
week on average. Employees entitled to notice under
WARN include hourly and salaried workers as well
as managerial and supervisory employees, but business partners are excluded.
14
APRIL 2016
A covered employer must give notice if an employment site (or one or more facilities or operating units
within an employment site) will be shut down and
result in 50 or more employees losing their jobs during any 30-day period. Notice is also required if a
pending mass layoff not related to a plant closing will
cause job loss at the site for 500 or more employees
during any 30-day period, or for 50 to 499 employees
if they make up at least 33 percent of the employer’s
active workforce.
Employers must provide this notice to affected workers or their representatives (such as a labor union),
to the state dislocated worker unit, and to the appropriate local government unit.
For more information about WARN, please go to
http://jobs.alaska.gov/RR/WARN.
Employer Resources is wri en by the Employment and Training Services
Division of the Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development.
ALASKA ECONOMIC TRENDS