NOSTRADAMUS - Arctic Council

NOSTRADAMUS: real time computer system for
estimation of atmospheric transfer
IBRAE developed a
software package
NOSTRADAMUS to
analyze accidents of various
scales.
NOSTRADAMUS package
was designed to effective
forecast of radiation
situation in case of activity
release in aerosol and
gaseous forms with
subsequent precipitation.
NOSTRADAMUS code is based on a
Lagrangian trajectory transport model
Comparing to the standard Gaussian models, this model features
the following capabilities:
 Calculation of contaminant transportation - up to hundreds
kilometers ;
 Taking into account a real three-dimensional heterogeneity of wind
field inside an atmospheric boundary layer ;
 Calculation of soil depositions taking into account distribution of
aerosol particles by size;
 Taking into account fluctuations of source and meteorological
parameters;
 Taking into account landscape features;
 Taking into account time period and coordinates of atmospheric
precipitations.
Computer system “NOSTRADAMUS”
characteristics:
 PC oriented;
 Friendly WINDOWS interface;
 Forecast efficiency — real time calculations: one hour of real time
transportation requires 1 - 2 minutes of computer time;
 Presentation of calculation is easy to understand - based on
geographical maps
The “NOSTRADAMUS” system includes
atmospheric boundary layer model for the
recovery of wind speed field vertical
structure and atmospheric stability class on
the base of synoptic information. It makes
possible to use different sources and volumes
of meteorological data for calculation. Data of
long-term observations on vertical profile of
turbulent diffusion coefficients provided by
SPA “Typhoon” are used for the turbulent
exchange coefficients calculation.
Representation of Plume Propagation
Process
Model verification
The “NOSTRADAMUS”
system was verified using
experimental
data.
“NOSTRADAMUS”
verification
matrix
includes 12 different
experiments
on
atmospheric dispersion,
performed in different
time by different teams in
different countries.
INEL Experiment. 131I Integral Ground-level Concentration at 60 km from the Source.
1 – Measured Data, 2 – LLL Gaussian Model, 3 - ADPIC Model,
4 – NOSTRADAMUS Lagrangian Model.
DOE-IBRAE Cooperation
After the table-top exercise conducted at FSUE NIIAR
on December 9, 2003, in the framework DOE-IBRAE
cooperation, it was concluded that it was necessary to
upgrade the software of local crisis centers of radiation
hazardous Minatom facilities for simulation of the
consequences of radioactive releases at the early stage
of accident evolution.
DOE-IBRAE Cooperation 2004
 FSUE SSC "Scientific
and Research Institute
of Nuclear Reactors"
(NIIAR);
 Siberian Chemical
Combine (SCC);
 Mining and Chemical
combine (MCC);
 PA "Mayak“ .
DOE-IBRAE Cooperation 2005
 Electric and Chemical Plant (ECP),;
 Ural Electric and Chemical Combine, (UECC);
 Angarsk Electric Chemical Combine, (AECC);
Plans for the future:
DOE-IBRAE Cooperation in 2006 (plan)
In 2006, installation of the NOSTRADAMUS” system is planned
at the following facilities related to decommissioning of the
nuclear submarines and nuclear powered vessels in the NorthWest Region of Russia:
 FSUE «ME «Zvezdochka»
 FSUE «SRZ «Nerpa» - Shipyard «Nerpa»
 FSUE «Atomflot»