Presentation to Dalron Construction Limited

DALRON CONSTRUCTION LIMITED
RESEARCH COORDINATOR, JAMES CUDDY
4 JUNE 2015, DAYS INN, SUDBURY
Overview
• What is Northern Policy Institute?
• Economic growth in Northern Ontario
• Economic growth in Greater Sudbury
• Conclusions and observations
• Q/A and Discussion
What IS Northern Policy Institute
Independent There are a couple of BIG differences between “working WITH a
Policy Institute” and “HIRING a consultant”: we don’t work for you and
we can’t guarantee an answer you will like.
Independent means just that –
• Funders, members and stakeholders do not direct the work of
Northern Policy Institute.
• Board, funders, members and stakeholders do not “pick” projects
or pre-determine results.
• Staff and contract authors follow the evidence
• Northern Policy Institute does NOT take positions – we ask
the questions – the authors provide, and defend, the answers.
• Their analysis is tested before publication: Double blind peer
review – just like academic journals.
Our Region
Northern Ontario consists of
(Census, 2011):
• 2 Economic Regions
• 11 Districts
• 166 Communities
• 72 First Nations
• 94 Municipalities
• ~ 780,000 individuals
780,000 bosses
We work for and take direction from the people of Northern Ontario.
Over 100 meetings and events in the past twelve months throughout Northern
Ontario and beyond. Top ten issues:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Cost of electricity: WAY too high.
Need for partnership and collaboration among our communities.
Importance of the issues and challenges facing aboriginal communities.
Who decides our fate?
Our communities are dying; How do we sustain them and keep people
in (attract new people to) the North?
6. Infrastructure: transportation and communication.
7. Protecting/understanding/reflecting the northern way of life.
8. Training – access and relevance to local opportunities.
9. Do we really know ourselves? Data and measurement.
10. Where does all the money from the North go?
Know the North
Statscan knows a little:
•
•
2 summer interns
Drill down (to postal codes) then build up (to community level)
Collectively, we know a lot:
•
•
6 summer interns
Municipalities, First Nations Communities, Aboriginal Groups,
Economic Development Agencies, Research Institutes, Unions,
Chambers and other Community/ Grassroots Organizations
•
•
•
•
What do you know? – your data
How do you know it? – your tools, your timing (one time or cyclical?)
Common tools - provincial surveys, common questions, common
measures
Examples: chamber and municipal satisfaction surveys, Sioux Lookout
mining permit survey, Kenora growth project, Thunder Bay index,
everything you ask or know about your community
The KEY – open honest sharing of information
Three ways YOUR issue
gets on OUR to-do list
1. Research if necessary:
Northern Policy Institute standing consultation tools will be used
to inform, test and reset our internal research agenda and
priorities. If your issue is shared by your friends and neighbours,
it will likely get onto our to-do list.
2. But not necessarily research:
YOU do the work, commission the study, and you send it to us
for re-publication or dissemination. Big parts of our job involve
avoiding wasteful duplication of effort and getting the word out
about what has already been done.
3. Working WITH Northern Policy Institute:
NOT a consulting service, but will partner – in cash, or in kind –
to expedite needed work.
Trends and Characteristics
in the North
We are a small piece of the provincial
pie in population terms
• The north makes up only 6% of Ontario’s total population
(Census, 2011)
Northern Ontario
Rest of Province
BUT, we are a big part of the global “north”
Source: New Northern Lens, Northern Policy Institute 2015
AND, our resources are of global
significance
• Northern Ontario is one of the most important resource producing
regions in Canada.
• In 2013, Northern Ontario accounted for almost all the metals
production and 23% of the non-metals produced in Ontario,
• Since 2006 the region has consistently produced between 67 and
79% of the value of all Ontario’s mineral production.
Source: It’s what you know (and where you can go), Northern Policy Institute 2015
POPULATION
• Historical and projected population in Northern Ontario, 1871-2036
• Population is expected to increase to 807,100 (0.5%) by 2036
• NW expected to increase by 3.9%
• NE expected to decrease by 1%
Source: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015
Northern Ontario HAS grown – in places
Source: Diversify, Innovate, Invest & Grow Northern Policy Institute 2015
Northern Ontario WILL grow – in places
Northern Districts - Projected population percent change,
2012-2036
15
11.23
10
Percent Change
6.41
5
0.00
0
-1.00
-5
-5.58
-7.31
-10
-15
-4.06
-13.53
Source: Ontario Ministry of Finance projections, 2013
-3.90
1.43
1.97
2.75
3.94
Youth (15-24) out-migration is slowing
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
Northeastern Ontario 15 to 29 years
-2500
Northwestern Ontario 15 to 29 years
-3000
But each district is different…
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
2011/2012
2012/2013
2013/2014
Employment
Employment (thousands)
Northeast
270
4.3
4.2
265
4.1
260
4
3.9
255
3.8
250
3.7
3.6
245
3.5
240
3.4
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Northeast Employment
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Northeast Share of provincial employment
Employment (thousands)
Northwest
120
2
1.8
115
1.6
110
1.4
105
1.2
1
100
0.8
95
0.6
0.4
90
0.2
85
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Northwest Employment
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Northwest Share of provincial employment
Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 2015.
2013
2014
Full-time employment
Full-time jobs as a share of total employment (%)
83
82
81
80
79
78
77
76
75
74
73
72
2001
2002
2003
2004
Canada FT/Total
2005
2006
2007
Ontario FT/Total
2008
2009
2010
Northeast FT/Total
2011
2012
2013
Northwest FT/Total
Sources: Settling Down in the Northwest, Northern Policy Institute 2015; From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute, 2015.
2014
Participation Rates
Percent of working age individuals participating in the labour force
72
70
68
66
64
62
60
58
56
54
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Canada Participation rate
Ontario Participation rate
Northeast Participation rate
Northwest Participation rate
2012
2013
2014
Youth Labour Force in the Northeast
Source: From Laggard to Leader (Almost), Northern Policy Institute 2015
Elementary and secondary school
enrolment is falling
Northwest Ontario
Canada
33,500
4,800,000
4,780,000
4,760,000
4,740,000
4,720,000
4,700,000
4,680,000
4,660,000
0.1% decline
5,025 students
33,000
3.1% decline
1,046 students
32,500
32,000
31,500
2011/2012
Northeast Ontario
Ontario
2,080,000
2,070,000
2,060,000
2,050,000
2,040,000
2,030,000
2,020,000
2,010,000
2012/2013
83,000
0.6% decline
11,922 students
1.8 % decline
1,470 students
82,500
82,000
81,500
81,000
80,500
2011/2012
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 477-0037; Ontario Ministry of Education
2012/2013
Still – our education levels are rising
Census 2006
Northwestern
Ontario
Northeastern
Ontario
Ontario
NHS 2011
Northwestern
Ontario
Northeastern
Ontario
Ontario
Apprenticeship
or trades
College, CEGEP or other
Less than
certificate or non-university certificate
highschool %
diploma %
or diploma %
University certificate, diploma or
degree
30.1%
11.2%
18.6%
12.1%
28.8%
11.4%
21.0%
11.1%
22.2%
8.0%
18.4%
20.5%
Apprenticeship
or trades
College, CEGEP or other
Less than
certificate or non-university certificate University certificate, diploma or
highschool %
diploma %
or diploma %
degree (at or above bachelor level)
25.2%
11.3%
21.3%
14.4%
23.8%
11.3%
23.7%
13.1%
18.7%
7.4%
19.8%
23.4%
Economic Growth in Greater Sudbury
1. Population
2. Employment
3. Infrastructure
Trends in population in large
Canadian cities
220,000
Population Trends - All Canadian CMAs under 200,000
Sherbrooke, 212061
St. John's, 211724
200,000
Barrie, 200416
Kelowna, 191237
Abbotsford-Mission, 178967
180,000
Kingston, 168353
Greater Sudbury, 165690
Saguenay, 160138
Trois-Rivières, 155813
160,000
Guelph, 150946
Moncton, 146073
Brantford, 143074
Saint John, 127314
140,000
Thunder Bay, 125112
Peterborough, 123270
120,000
100,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 051-0056
Population Pyramids
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
90 years and over
85 to 89 years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
0 to 4 years
-1.0
-1.7
-2.8
-3.5
-4.4
-5.3
0.4
1.1
1.9
2.7
3.8
5.5
-6.6
6.5
-7.8
-8.1
-6.8
-6.3
-6.0
-6.3
-6.7
-7.0
-5.9
7.5
8.4
7.0
6.7
6.3
6.6
6.7
7.5
6.3
-4.8
-4.7
-4.3
-10
-8
Female, 2014
-6
5.2
5.2
4.8
-4
Male, 2014
-2
0
2
Male, 2001
4
6
8
Female, 2001
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 051-0001
10
90 years and over
85 to 89 years
80 to 84 years
75 to 79 years
70 to 74 years
65 to 69 years
60 to 64 years
55 to 59 years
50 to 54 years
45 to 49 years
40 to 44 years
35 to 39 years
30 to 34 years
25 to 29 years
20 to 24 years
15 to 19 years
10 to 14 years
5 to 9 years
0 to 4 years
-1.1
-1.6
-2.4
-3.0
-3.8
0.4
1.0
1.8
2.6
3.5
-5.2
-6.0
-7.0
-7.8
-7.2
-6.7
-6.5
-6.7
-6.8
-6.9
-6.0
-5.2
-5.2
-5.0
-10
Female, 2014
4.9
5.9
7.1
8.1
7.3
6.7
6.4
6.6
6.9
7.4
6.6
5.7
5.6
5.4
-5
Male, 2014
0
Male, 2001
5
10
Female, 2001
Greater Sudbury Population Projections
Population Projections by Age Group, 2013-2041
30
28
Ages 35-54, 25
Percent of total population
25
23
Ages 55-74, 22
20
Ages 75+, 17
15
15
13
13
10
7
5
0
Ages 0-14, 14
Ages 25-34, 11
Ages 15-24, 11
Trends in Youth (15-24) Migration in
Greater Sudbury and Thunder Bay
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
Greater Sudbury
-800
Thunder Bay
-1000
Labour Force Characteristics
Employment Rate (%)
Participation Rate (%)
66
70
64
68
62
66
60
64
58
62
56
60
54
52
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
50
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
58
56
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Full Time Jobs (% of total)
Unemployment Rate (%)
84
10
9
82
8
7
80
6
78
5
76
4
3
74
2
Canada
Ontario
1
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
72
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
70
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Youth Labour Force Characteristics
70
Youth Employment Rate (%)
Youth Participation Rate (%)
75
65
70
60
65
55
60
50
45
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
40
55
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
50
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Youth Unemployment Rate (%)
Youth full-time jobs (% of total)
20
60
18
55
16
14
50
12
10
45
8
40
6
4
Canada
Ontario
2
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
35
Canada
Ontario
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
30
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employment vs Population: Correlation
Can we have population growth without job growth, and vice versa?
Thunder Bay:
• Corr = 0.64
• Ave annual population change = -122
• Ave. annual employment change = -8
Greater Sudbury:
• Corr = 0.91
• Ave annual population change = 323
• Ave. annual employment change = 800
86
Greater Sudbury, 2001-2014
84
166000
82
165000
80
164000
78
163000
76
162000
74
161000
72
70
Greater Sudbury Employment
Greater Sudbury Population
68
66
160000
159000
158000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 282-0129
Thousands
Thousands
Thunder Bay, 2001-2014
167000
66
128000
65
127500
64
127000
63
126500
62
126000
61
125500
60
125000
59
124500
Thunder Bay Employment
58
Thunder Bay Population
57
124000
123500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Employment vs Population:
Cumulative Y/Y Growth Rates, 2001-14
Greater Sudbury:
• Ave annual pop growth rate = 0.2%
• Ave annual emp growth rate = 1.1%
Thunder Bay:
• Ave annual pop growth rate = - 0.1%
• Ave annual emp growth rate = 0.03%
Greater Sudbury
Thunder Bay
18
7
16
6
14
5
12
4
10
3
2
8
1
6
0
4
-1
2
-2
0
-2
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-3
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton
Y/Y cumulative % change - Populaton
Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment
Y/Y cumulative % change - Employment
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Tables 051-0056 and 282-0129
Distribution of Jobs – Greater Sudbury
2001
1%
4%
4%
16%
5%
5%
5%
13%
5%
6%
9%
6%
7%
7%
7%
Trade
Health care and social assistance
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas
Educational services
Accommodation and food services
Public administration
Business, building and other support services
Construction
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing
Manufacturing
Transportation and warehousing
Other services
Professional, scientific and technical services
Information, culture and recreation
Agriculture + Utilities
2014
0%
4%
4%
4%
17%
4%
4%
5%
15%
5%
6%
9%
7%
8%
8%
Trade
Health care and social assistance
Educational services
Accommodation and food services
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas
Public administration
Construction
Transportation and warehousing
Professional, scientific and technical services
Business, building and other support services
Finance, insurance, real estate and leasing
Information, culture and recreation
Other services
Manufacturing
Agriculture + Utilities
Goods-producing Sector
Greater Sudbury
12,000
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas
10,000
Construction
Manufacturing
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Thunder Bay
8,000
Forestry, fishing, mining, quarrying, oil and gas
7,000
Construction
6,000
Manufacturing
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Services-producing Sector – Greater
Sudbury
Employment by Industry – Greater Sudbury
16,000
Trade, 14,300
14,000
Health care and social
assistance , 12,800
12,000
Educational services ,
7,200
10,000
Accommodation and
food services , 6,900
8,000
Public administration,
5,700
Transportation and
warehousing, 4,000
6,000
Professional, scientific and
technical services, 3,900
4,000
Business, building and other
support services , 3,500
2,000
Finance, insurance, real estate
and leasing, 3,200
Information, culture and
recreation , 3,200
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Other services , 3,100
Trade in Sudbury – A closer look…
Wholesale Trade, 2013 (26% of total trade)
Business-to-business electronic markets, and agents and brokers
Miscellaneous merchant wholesalers
52%
Machinery, equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers
Building material and supplies merchant wholesalers
16%
Motor vehicle and motor vehicle parts and accessories merchant wholesalers
Personal and household goods merchant wholesalers
Food, beverage and tobacco merchant wholesalers
Petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers
Farm product merchant wholesalers
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Retail Trade, 2013 (74% of total trade)
Non-store retailers
Miscellaneous store retailers
General merchandise stores
Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores
Clothing and clothing accessories stores
Gasoline stations
Health and personal care stores
Food and beverage stores
Building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers
Electronics and appliance stores
Furniture and home furnishings stores
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
17%
21%
0
Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
Health Care in Sudbury – A closer look…
Health Care and Social Assistance, 2013
Child day-care services
Vocational rehabilitation services
Community food and housing, and emergency and other relief services
Individual and family services
Other residential care facilities
Community care facilities for the elderly
Residential developmental handicap, mental health and substance abuse facilities
Nursing care facilities
Specialty (except psychiatric and substance abuse) hospitals
Psychiatric and substance abuse hospitals
24%
General medical and surgical hospitals
Other ambulatory health care services
Home health care services
Medical and diagnostic laboratories
13%
Out-patient care centres
Offices of other health practitioners
Offices of dentists
Offices of physicians
0
Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Accommodation and Food in Sudbury –
a closer look…
Accommodation and Food Services, 2013
87%
Full-service restaurants and limited-service eating places
Drinking places (alcoholic beverages)
Special food services
Rooming and boarding houses
Recreational vehicle (RV) parks and recreational camps
Traveller accommodation
0
Source: EMSI Analyst (based on 2011 Census)
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Greater Sudbury Infrastructure
Indicators (bricks and mortar)
• Building Permits
• Industrial
• Commercial
• Institutional and Governmental
• Residential
•
Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM Table 026-0006 (Adjusted for inflation, expressed
in 2014 dollars)
Value of Building Permits, all purposes
Value of Building Permits
Value of Building Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Residential
Industrial
Commercial
Institutional and governmental
Average - Total residential and non-residential
Industrial Building Permits
90
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Y/Y % change - Industrial
Industrial
Percent change from previous year
Value of Permits (Millions of 2014 dollars)
Value of Industrial Building Permits, Trend
Average - Industrial
3000
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Ontario Industrial
Greater Sudbury Industrial
Greater Sudbury Average - Industrial
SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars)
ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)
Comparative Trend
Commercial Building Permits
120
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
100
80
60
40
20
0
Y/Y % change - Commercial
Commercial
Average - Commercial
8000
120
7000
100
6000
80
5000
4000
60
3000
40
2000
20
1000
0
0
Ontario Commercial
Greater Sudbury Commercial
Greater Sudbury Average - Commercial
SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars)
ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)
Comparative Trend
Percent change from previous year
Value of Permits (Millions of 2014
dollars)
Value of Commercial Building Permits, Trend
Institutional and Governmental Permits
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
Y/Y % change - Institutional and governmental
Institutional and governmental
Percent change from previous year
Value of Permits (Millions of 2014
dollars)
Value of Institutional and Governmental Building Permits, Trend
Average - Institutional and governmental
6000
160
140
5000
120
4000
100
3000
80
60
2000
40
1000
20
0
0
Ontario Institutional and governmental
Greater Sudbury Average - Institutional and governmental
Greater Sudbury Institutional and governmental
SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars)
ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)
Comparative Trend
Residential Building Permits
300
60
250
40
200
20
150
0
100
-20
50
-40
0
-60
Y/Y % change - Residential
Residential
Average - Residential
Percent change from previous year
Value of Permits (Millions of 2014
dollars)
Value of Residential Building Permits, Trend
20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Ontario Residential
Greater Sudbury Residential
Greater Sudbury Average - Residential
SUDBURY (Millions of 2014 dollars)
ONTARIO (Millions of 2014 dollars)
Comparative Trend
Conclusions and Observations
• Sudbury’s population projections are weak, but not written in stone
• The number of working age women in Sudbury is disproportionately
low
• Employment (including full-time) and participation rates in Sudbury
are at or nearing provincial and national levels – the gap is closing
• Youth migration in the North is slowing; Sudbury is leading the way
• Youth labour force indicators in Sudbury are strong – recent influx of
youth are added benefit but more needs to be done
• The food services industry shows promising signs of growth
• Trends in commercial building appear to be highly volatile
• Growth in residential building has not recovered from the financial
crisis
Thank you. Merci. Miigwetch.
www.northernpolicy.ca
Discussion Questions
How can the public AND private sector:
1. Continue to attract and retain youth in Sudbury?
2. Attract and retain women in Sudbury?
3. Encourage local entrepreneurial endeavours?
4. Foster greater certainty and growth in commercial and residential
investments?