Progress Report I (May 2009)

SFP 983038
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern
Caucasus-Eastern Turkey Energy Corridors (SHRAP)
APRIL Progress Report - 2009
Project Co-Directors:
*Prof. Erdal Safak, NPD, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake
Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey
*Prof. Tamaz Chelidze, PPD, M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi,
Georgia
*Dr. Arif Akhundov, Co-Director, Ministry of Emergency Situations,
Baku, Azerbaijan
Project Coordinator :
*Assist. Prof. Dr. Gulum TANIRCAN, Kandilli Observatory and
Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey
April 20, 2009
1
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................. 2
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ...................................................................... 3
LIST OF CO-DIRECTORS......................................................................... 4
LIST OF END USERS ................................................................................ 4
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5
PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES .......................................... 6
TECHNICAL PROGRESS.......................................................................... 7
TECHNICAL REPORT OF GEORGIA .................................................................................... 7
TECHNICAL REPORT OF AZERBAIJAN ............................................................................. 11
TECHNICAL REPORT OF TURKEY .................................................................................... 15
FINANCIAL STATUS ............................................................................... 19
CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS ...................................................................... 23
SUMMARY REPORT .............................................................................. 24
2
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
BOTAS: Petroleum Pipeline Corporation
BTC: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
BTE: Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
DEE: Department of Earthquake Engineering
DSEG: Department of Seismology and Experimental Geophysics
EERI: Earthquake Engineering Research Institute
GIS: Geographic Information System
KOERI: Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute
M: Magnitude
MTA General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration
MES : Ministry of Emergency Situations
MNIG: M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics
MOU: Memorandum of Understanding
NATO: North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NPD: NATO Country Project Director
PPD: Partner Country Project Director
R&D: Research and Development
RCSS: Republic Center of Seismological Survey
SfP: Science for Peace
3
LIST OF CO-DIRECTORS
SURNAME/First
name/Title
Job Title, Institute and
Address
Head
Dept. of Earthquake
Engineering Kandilli
SAFAK/Erdal/ Prof.
Observatory
and
NATO Project Director Earthquake Research
(NPD)
Institute
Bogazici University
34684
Cengelkoy,
Istanbul
Head
Department
of
Seismology
CHELIDZE/Tamaz/Prof. M.Nodia Institute of
Geophysics,
1, Alexidze Str., GE –
Tbilisi 0193
Senior
Advisor,
Ministry of Emergency
AKHUNDOV/Arif/Dr.
Situations
57,Tbilisi
Avenue,
Baku, AZ 1065
Country
Telephone, Fax and
E-mail
Turkey
+90-216-516-3308
+90-216-308-0163
[email protected]
.tr
Georgia
+99532-385853/
332867
+99532-332867
[email protected]
+99-412-512-01-54
+99-450-634-57-05
Azerbaijan (mobil)
+99-412-512-01-48
[email protected]
Scientific Advisor to
BAYRAKTUTAN/ Salih the Director, BOTAS,
/ Dr.
Petroleum
Pipeline Turkey
Project Co-Director
Corporation
Ankara
+90-216-516-3308
+90-216-308-0163
bayraktutansalih@gm
ail.com
LIST OF END USERS
Name of the End Users
Ministry of Emergency Situations, Baku,
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Sources, Baku
Ministry of Environmental Protection and
Resources of Georgia, Tbilisi
Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, Ankara
Country
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan
Natural Georgia
Turkey
4
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES
The Southern Caucasus- Eastern Turkey energy corridors are formed by several critical
pipelines carrying crude oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan, via Georgia, to Turkey and
world markets. In civil engineering literature, such structures are commonly termed as
“Lifelines” for the cities and countries they cross, because of their importance and the
consequences of any damage to them. The two most important of these pipelines are the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE)
Natural Gas Pipeline.
The BTC pipeline travels from Baku through Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to the
Ceyhan marine terminal on the Turkish coast of the Mediterranean. The BTE gas line
follows the BTC corridor but terminates at Erzurum and connects to the Turkish pipeline
system. The 1,768 km long BTC pipeline daily transports about 1% of the world's daily
petroleum output, about 1 million barrels. The BTE pipeline has excess capacity today,
with 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year.
BTC and BTE Pipelines cross several active tectonic entities that have experienced large
earthquakes in the past. The design of pipelines taking into account the physical and
seismic properties of these entities with special emphasis on their potential of producing
significant earthquakes in the future is essential and crucial, considering the high
economical losses which will result from the break-down of the system even at a single
location along its route. Damage to a pipeline due to a large earthquake in one of the
countries will affect directly and indirectly all the other countries that the pipeline
extends, impacting large geographic regions and disrupting global economies.
The current NATO SfP project that has been carried out with Turkish, Georgian and
Azerbaijan researchers aims to identify the vulnerable segments of the pipelines to
earthquakes, and provide mitigation strategies by performing a comprehensive seismic
hazard and risk study for the pipelines. The primary goals of the project are: (1) to assess
the seismic hazard in Azerbaijan, Georgia and North Eastern Turkey (2) to evaluate the
seismic safety of the pipelines, (3) to develop efficient seismic risk monitoring and
mitigation strategies, and (4) to improve environmental security in this part of the world.
The project will result in the following products: (1) deterministic and probabilistic
seismic hazard maps in Azerbaijan, Georgia and North Eastern Turkey (i.e., expected
ground shaking maps) for the length of the pipelines, (2) geology and site amplification
maps, (3) fragility curves for all pipeline types used in the system, (4) maps of expected
damage in the pipelines for expected and scenario earthquakes, (5) a GIS-based software
package to incorporate and manipulate all the maps mentioned above, and (6)
specifications for a seismic monitoring system for the pipelines.
5
PROJECT STRUCTURE AND ACTIVITIES
'Milestones, Deliverables and Schedule':
Report Date: 20 april 2009
SfP 983038
1st year
2nd year
EFFECTIVE DATE*: December 1st, 2008
Month (of the project activities): 1 - 2 - 3 4 - 5 - 6 7 - 8 - 9 10 - 11 - 12 1 - 2 - 3 4 - 5 - 6
7-8-9
Milestones/Tasks
D J F MAM J J A
SON
D J F MAM J J A
1. Seismic hazard assessment
10 - 11 - 12
SON
3rd year
4 - 5 - 6 7 - 8 - 9 10 - 11 - 12
1-2-3
D J F
MAM
J J A
SON
1.1 Compilation of seismicty catalogs
1.2 Development of probabilistic seismic hazard maps
1.3 Development of deterministic seismic hazard maps
2. Evaluation of site effects
2.1 Compilation of available geotechnical information
2.2 Specification and purchase of portable monitoring equipment
(Purchase orders have been done for Georgia and Azerbaijan at the time of the progress report.
2.3 Deployment and ambient noise monitoring using portable
arrays
2.4 Analysis of ambient noise records
2.5 Development of site amplification maps
3. Development of fragility relationships
(in progress)
3.1 Structural categorization of pipeline segments
3.2 Identification of controling ground motion parameters
3.3 Development of fragility curves for each pipeline segment
4. Seismic risk assessment
4.1 Development of probabilistic seismic risk maps
4.2Development of deterministic seismic risk maps
4.3 Completion of final report
Deliverable:
* Final project
report
* Deterministic
seismic risk
maps
* Probabilistic
seismic risk
maps
Reporting:
Final Report
<-- 5th
Progress
Report
<-- 4th
Progress
Report
<-- 3rd
Progress
Report
<-- 2nd
Progress
Report
As planned:
* Site
amplification
maps
* Fragility curves
for pipeline
segments
* Deterministic
seismic hazard
maps
* Probabilistic
seismic hazard
maps
<-- 1st
Progress
Report
* EFFECTIVE DATE is the date when the first R&D activities of the project actually started.
Completed:
(This bar chart should be designed to suit the Project's requirements; it should be as detailed as possible and self-understanding.)
6
TECHNICAL PROGRESS
In 22-23 January 2009 a kick-off meeting of the project was held in Baku with the
participation of project teams from Georgia, Turkey and Azerbaijan. During the meeting
management of the project, major tasks, methodologies and softwares to be used,
available and required data and equipment were discussed.
Participants were asked to provide a list of hardware/ equipment needs, name of
conferences they plan to attend /name of the participants that will visit KOERI for hazard
analysis and site effects training. General remarks of the meeting can be summarizes as
follows:
-For seismic hazard analysis, 400 km wide strip of the pipeline route will be considered
(200 km wide from both sides).
-The risk assessment will initially be performed for 1km x 1km cells. Ground motion
parameters and site information will be assigned to the center point of each cell.
-Seismic hazard analysis and site response analysis will be performed with commercial
programs: EZ-FRISK and SHAKE2000, respectively.
- Training for seismic hazard analysis code will be organized by KOERI in Istanbul and
date was tentatively set as July 2009.
- In order to complete the first 6 months work, each country was required to obtain and
generate the following list:
 Geology maps
 Topography maps
 Pipeline coordinates
 Available borelog locations and other geo-technical information.
 Information on sites susceptible to liquefaction and landslides.
 Active tectonic maps.
 Historical and instrumental seismicity catalog (Ms≥5)
 Available seismic zonation maps
 Basic structural information necessary to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of
pipeline route/facilities.
Technical Report of Georgia
 Major accomplishments achieved by the Georgian Team can be summarized as
followings:
 Geology maps in the scale 500 000 are procured and converted to GIS for the
Georgian region.
 Geology maps in the scale 50 000 along pipeline are procured, scanned and ready
to register to GIS system.
 Topography maps of the scale 1:200 000 are procured and converted to GIS .
 Topography maps of the scale 1:25 000 are procured, scanned for the Georgian
region and ready to register to GIS system.
7
 Geo engineering map of scale 1:200 000 are procured scanned for the Georgian
region and are converting into GIS (Figure 1).
 Active tectonic maps were prepared in GIS system including table with all
possible parameters about fault for Georgia (Figure 2).
 Two seismic zonation maps available for Georgia were obtained and registered to
GIS (Figure 3 and 4).
 Macroseismic databases of 49 large earthquakes (M 6) for the Caucasus region
were obtained.
 Earthquake induced landslides for Georgia were collected (Figure 5)
 Compilation of a homogeneous seismicity catalog was done and catalog was
declustered.
 As for structural characteristics of pipeline: BP provides digital version of the
buffering zone of BTC pipeline for the territory of Georgia. From the topography
map with scale 1:25 000 the approximate coordinate was taken for each 1km for
BTC pipeline on the territory of Georgia. The average diameter and depth is 106
cm and 1.5-2 meters correspondingly. In some places even about 10 meters. The
average thickness of wall and materials will be provided by BP.
Figure 1. Geo engineering map of Georgia (scale: 1:200 000). Area in red frame covers
the pipeline route.
8
Figure 2. Seismo tectonic map of Georgia. (M>3.5). Red lines show active faults.
Figure 3. Seismic zonation of Georgia in use since 1991.
9
Figure 4. Seismic hazard map of Georgia (not official).
Figure 5 Landslide Hazard Map of Georgia
10
Milestones for the next 6 months
1 ) Seismic hazard assessment part: Inputs necessary for the calculation seismic hazard
maps will be compiled and seismic zonation will be decided.
2) Site effects part: Available geotechnical information will be compiled.
3) Development of fragility relationships part: Structural categorization of pipeline
segments will be done.
4) Obtaining and testing equipment for the field work
5) Preliminary field work along the pipeline:
6) Training on the use of GIS-based seismic hazard and risk analysis software packages
7)Participation and presentation at International Symposium on the Geology of the Black
Sea Region (ISGB-2), October 5-10 Ankara/Turkey. Two participants
Involvement of young scientists in the project: Currently there are 5 scientists under
40 years old working on compilation of GIS-maps, field work, seismic site effects,
seismic/ natural hazard and risk assessment,
Major travel: Prof. T. Chelidze, Drs. O.Varazanashvili and N.Tsereteli attended to kickoff meeting in Baku for working out the plan of work for the first year of the project.
Details of the meeting were given at the beginning of the technical report.
Technical and administrative difficulties: The equipment request has been sent to
Brussels but the decision has not been obtained yet. This may cause delay in the field
work.
Technical Report of
Azerbaijan
According to the plan of performance of the given stage of the project, Azerbaijan team
had been done following tasks:
 The digital map of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline on Azerbaijan territory was
prepared.
 The catalogue of earthquakes of Azerbaijan with Мlh≥4.0 during 427-2008 had
been compiled. The catalogue contains date (year, month, day), origin time Т0,
depth of hypocentres Н and magnitude Мlh of earthquakes. In the catalogue data
about earthquakes for the various periods of time had different errors. Origin
times of historical (before the 20th century) earthquakes were defined with
accuracy from several months till one year. Co-ordinates of these earthquakes
were defined with accuracy of ±50-100 km. Since 1930th year’s accuracy of these
parameters have a little raised. Up to the end of 1970th years an error in definitions
of co-ordinate of the epicentres of the majority earthquake made ±25 km. Since
1980 the epicentres co-ordinates of Azerbaijan’s earthquakes are defined with
accuracy ±10-15 km.
11
 For an estimation of seismic effect from strong earthquakes a relationship
between magnitude, depths of the earthquakes and seismic effect were used. For
territory of Azerbaijan character of attenuation of seismic effect (on a scale
MOSCOW TIME-64) had been investigated certain dependencies had been
established.
 Geological map of Azerbaijan territory (1:500 000 scale) was digitised.
 Fault map of Azerbaijan territory was digitized (1:1000000 scale).
 Data from 13 boreholes (engineering-geological and hydro-geological) drilled
near lines of the pipeline of BTC on territory of Azerbaijan had been collected.
 Distributions of landslide zones in Azerbaijan territory were digitised.
 Topographic map of Azerbaijan territory was digitised (scale 1:100 000).
 Kick-off meeting organization: The meeting was held in Baku in 2009, January
22-23 with chief of the project professor Erdal Safak, director of the project on
South Caucasus professor Tamaz Chelidze, the director of the project on
Azerbaijan doctor Arif Akhundov and the explorers from project countries, the
participants of the project was introduced to each other, was determined works
which should be fulfilled in the first quarter 2009.
Figure 6 Map of BTC pipeline line on Azerbaijan territory.
12
Figure 7 Geological map of Azerbaijan territory
Figure 8 The map of large faults of Azerbaijan territory.
13
Figure 9. The map of 13 boreholes drilled near lines of the pipeline of BTC on territory of
Azerbaijan.
Figure 10. Distributions of landslide zones in Azerbaijan territory
14
Figure 11. Topographical map of Azerbaijan territory.
Technical Report of Turkey
Major accomplishments have been done so far can be summarizes as follows:
 Pipeline coordinates were obtained and registered to GIS (Figure 12).
 Geology maps of the pipeline route were obtained from (1:25 000 and 1:1000
000) General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA) in Ankara,
Turkey.
 Recent investigations on active faults in Turkey were obtained and registered to
GIS system. Fault names, types and lengths were defined.(Figure 13)
 Compilation and harmonization of historical and instrumental seismicity catalog
were achieved. Available seismicity catalog prepared by the project team until
were re-evaluated considering the BTC and BTE pipeline routes. The catalog
covers the time range 550BC-2009. (Figure 14)
 Detailed geological reports (Akdeniz N.,2000; Atabey E.,2000) and also active
faults report (Barka A., Yigitbas E., Saroglu F., Altunel E., 2000) were gathered
and studied for the project.
 Purchase order requests were done for Azerbaijan and Georgia
 Commercial softwares to be used through the project were investigated and
decided.
15
Milestones for the next 6 months
 Development of seismic hazard maps will be completed
 Vulnerability relationships developed for buried pipelines and other structural
components will be investigated and applicability of those relationships will be
discussed
 In order to get detailed structural components of the pipeline route, researchers
plan to visit BOTAS
 Training program for Seismic Hazard Assessment will be prepared for Georgian
and Azeri scientists. Training will be held in KOER, Istanbul.
Involvement of young scientists in the project: Two scientists under 40 have been
currently working for the data compilation, GIS mapping and project management parts.
Major Travel : Dr. E.Safak, Dr.B.Siyahi, Dr.E.Uckan and Dr. G.Tanircan attended to
the kick off meeting in Baku (22-23 Jan 2009)
Figure 12 General view of the path of the BTC pipeline with topography.
16
Figure 13 Fault Map of Eastern Anatolia (Sesetyan, 1994)
17
Figure 14 Historical and instrumental seismicity of the region
18
FINANCIAL STATUS
SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE
Project number: SfP - 983038
Project short title: SfP - SHRAP
Report date: 01 April 2009
Duration of the Project :
Project Co-Director: Prof. Tamaz Chelidze, Tbilisi, Georgia
ACTUAL
EXPENDITURES
Detailed Budget
Breakdown
(to be
completed in EUR 3 )
12/2008-12/2011
FORECAST EXPENDITURES
(2) for the
following six
months
01.12. 2008/
31.03.2009
(3) for the following
period until project's end
Comments on changes, if
any, in the financial
planning compared to the
approved Project Plan
0
69,000
0
0
69,000
0
(b) Computers - Software
2,965
2,035
0 will be bought in the next week
Subtotal "Computers Software"
(c) Training
Subtotal "Training "
2,965
0
0
2,035
6,500
6,500
0
0
0
0
0
1,000
0
0
1,000
0
0
0
0
2,000
2,500
0
0
2,500
1,534
1,534
2,966
16,500
3,000
6,000
3,000
6,000
(a) Equipment
Subtotal "Equipment"
(d1) Books and Journals
(global figure)
(d2) Publications (global
figure)
Subtotal "Books Publications"
(e) Experts - Advisors
Subtotal "Experts Advisors "
(f) Travel
Tbilisi, Gorgia Baku,Azerbaijan
December 22.01.09 24.01.09 3 Person
Subtotal "Travel"
(g) Consumables - Spare
parts:
Subtotal "Consumables Spare parts"
(h) Other costs and (i)
stipends (specify)
from this is transferred only
for four months and
Mr.A.Gventsadze 4
monthx100EUR
Ms.N.Goguadze 4
monthx100EUR
Ms.S.Vepkhvadze4
monthx100EUR
Ms.T.Tsamalashvili4month
x100EUR
Ms.N.Zhukova4monthx100
EUR
Subtotal "Other costs"
TOTAL (1) :
CURRENT COST OUTLOOK
=(1)+(2)+(3)
7499
the rest two months stipends
will be transferred at the
end of the following two
months.
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
600
3,000
600
6,000
19,000
89501
46000
143000
19
SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE
Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director
Project short title: SfP - SHRAP
Project number: SfP - 983038
Report date:05 April 2009
Project Co-Director: Akhundov Arif, Baku, Azerbaijan
ACTUAL
EXPENDITURES
Detailed Budget Breakdown
(to be completed in EUR 3 )
Duration of the Project 1 :
December 2008-December 2011
FORECAST EXPENDITURES
(3) for the
Comments on changes, if any,
(1) from start until (2) for the following following period
in the financial planning
compared to the approved
(31.03.2009)
six months
until project's
Project Plan
end
(a) Equipment
Portale digital electrical
exploration system ERP-1
(1set+software)
Seismic prospecting system 2
sets at 21,000 EUR
Borehole Pick 3315
Subtotal "Equipment"
(b) Computers - Software
Subtotal "Computers Software"
(c) Training
One-week training of three
people at KOERI in Istanbul on
9,413.00
42,000.00
9,750.00
61,163.00
5,000.00
5,000.00
5,000.00
Training on the use of seismic
prospecting equipment
Subtotal "Training "
1,500.00
6,500.00
(d1) Books and Journals
(global figure)
250.00
750.00
(d2) Publications (global figure)
250.00
750.00
Subtotal "Books - Publications"
(e) Experts - Advisors
500.00
1,500.00
2,000.00
3,000.00
Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "
(f) Travel
2,000.00
3,000.00
Annual project review meetings
International scientific
conferences
Subtotal "Travel"
3,000.00
4,500.00
2,000.00
5,000.00
7,500.00
12,000.00
1,000.00
1,000.00
5,400.00
4,637.00
2,000.00
10,037.00
2,000.00
3,600.00
5,600.00
87,763.00
8,539.90
14,150.00
22,689.90
49,226.90
(g) Consumables - Spare parts:
Consumables
Spare parts
Subtotal "Consumables - Spare
parts"
(h) Other costs and (i) stipends
(specify)
Miscellaneous expenses
Stipends
Subtotal "Other costs"
TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :
CURRENT COST OUTLOOK
=(1)+(2)+(3)
960.10
2,050.00
3,010.10
3,010.10
140,000.00
20
SfP NATO BUDGET TABLE
Please provide one sheet per Project Co-Director
Project number: SfP - 983038
Project short title: SfP Report date: 10 April 2009
12/2008 - 12/2011
Duration of the Project 1 :
Project Co-Director: Erdal Safak,Istanbul,Turkey
ACTUAL
EXPENDITUR FORECAST EXPENDITURES
ES
Detailed Budget Breakdown
(to be completed in EUR 3 )
(1) from start
Comments on changes, if
(3) for the
(2) for the
until
any, in the financial
following period
following six
01.12. / 30.04.
until project's planning compared to the
months
end
approved Project Plan
(2008-2009)2
(a) Equipment
Subtotal "Equipment"
(b) Computers - Software
Subtotal "Computers Software"
(c) Training
Subtotal "Training "
(d1) Books and Journals
(d2) Publications
Subtotal "Books Publications"
(e) Experts - Advisors
Subtotal "Experts - Advisors "
(f) Travel
Project review meetings
International Scientific
Conferences
Subtotal "Travel"
(g) Consumables - Spare
parts:
Spare parts for computing
hardware
Software maintenance and
upgrade
Subtotal "Consumables Spare parts"
(h) Other costs and (i)
stipends (specify)
Expenses for field work in
Turkey
NPD Management expenses
Miscellaneous expenses
Subtotal "Other costs"
TOTAL (1), (2), (3) :
CURRENT COST OUTLOOK
=(1)+(2)+(3)
4,045.00
955.00
4,000.00
4,045.00
2,000.00
2,955.00
4,000.00
8,000.00
2,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
10,000.00
64.00
3,000.00
936.00
6,000.00
2,000.00
64.00
4,109.00
3,936.00
11,891.00
8,000.00
26,000.00
42,000.00
21
SFP NATO BUDGET SUMMARY TABLE
Project number: SfP - 983038
Project short title: SfP - SHRAP
Report date: April 20, 2009
Duration of the Project : 12/2008-11/2011
1
The Project is in the year (please indicate) : 1
Breakdown per Project Co-Director (to be completed in EUR
3
APPROVED
BUDGET:
Total year 1-3
Project Co-Director's name, city, country
ACTUAL
EXPENDITURES
)
CURRENT
COST
OUTLOOK:
Total year 1 - 3
since start until
31.03.2009
FORECAST EXPENDITURES
for the following 6
months
for the following
period until
project's end
42,000.00
42,000.00
4,109
11,891
26,000
Tamaz Chelidze,Tbilisi,Georgia
143,000.00
143,000.00
7,499.99
89,501.00
46,000.00
Arif Akhundov,Baku,Azerbaijan
140,000.00
140,000.00
3,010.10
89,503.00
47,487.00
Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan,Ankara,Turkey
included in
14,619
190,895
119,487
Erdal Safak,Istanbul,Turkey
TOTAL (must be identical with
TOTALs given in 'Breakdown per item') :
Breakdown per item (to be completed in EUR
3
325,000
E.Safak's Budget
325,000
ACTUAL
EXPENDITURES
)
APPROVED
BUDGET:
Total year 1-3
Item
(a) Equipment
162,000.00
CURRENT
COST
OUTLOOK:
Total year 1 - 3
since start until
30.04.2009
FORECAST EXPENDITURES
for the following 6
months
for the following
period until
project's end
146,000.00
0
10,200.00
146,000.00
10,200.00
0
(b) Computers - Software
2,965.00
7,035.00
0
(c) Training
12,500.00
11,500.00
0
13,000.00
0
4,000.00
4,000.00
0
500.00
3,500.00
(e) Experts - Advisors
10,000.00
7,500.00
0
2,000.00
5,500.00
(f) Travel
44,000.00
48,000.00
5,579.32
10,921.00
36,500.00
(g) Consumables - Spare parts:
25,000.00
29,000.00
0
10,000.00
26,037.00
(h) Other costs and (i) stipends
57,300.00
68,800.00
6,074
15,536.00
49,689.90
325,000
325,000
14,619
190,895
119,487
(d) Books - Publications
TOTAL :
Comments on changes, if
any, in financial planning
compared to the approved
Project Plan
Comments on changes, if
any, in financial planning
compared to the approved
Project Plan
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CRITERIA FOR SUCCESS
Project number: SFP 983038
Report date: April 20,2009
The Project is in the year 2 : 1
Project short title: SHRAP
Duration of the Project 1 : Dec/2008-Nov/2011
Criteria for Success as approved
Criteria for Success:
with the first Grant Letter on: 01.12.2008
Achievements as at 01 .12. / 30.04. of 2008-2009
3
%
%
1)Development of probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard maps
20
2)Deployment of portable monitoring instruments, data collection and
analyses, and development of site amplification maps.
20
3)Categorization pipeline components and development of fragility curves
4)Development of seismic risk analysis and loss maps
5)Preparation of progress reports, and annual review meetings
20
20
10
10
6) Completion of final report and holding a users workshop
TOTAL :
100%
1) Various historical and instrumental earthquake catalogs have been analyzed
Compilation and homogenization of seismicity catalog were done
Major tectonic entities of the region were investigated
Active tectonic maps,necessary for seismic source zonation were collected.
Most of the data were digitized and ready to use in GIS system
2)Purchase orders were completed for portable monitoring instruments
Available geotechnical information (geology maps,borehole data etc)
were collected.
10
2
3
0
0
0
3) Compilation of structural characteristic of pipleline are in progress
4)
5)
6)
TOTAL :
15%
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SUMMARY REPORT
SfP – SHRAP
SfP – 983038
Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Southern Caucasus-Eastern Turkey Energy Corridor
Project Co-Directors:
Prof. Erdal Safak, (NPD), Kandili Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey
Prof. Tamaz Chelidze, (PPD), M. Nodia Institute of Geophysics, Tbilisi, Georgia
Dr. Arif Akhundov, Co-Director, Ministry of Emergency Situations, Baku, Azerbaijan
Dr. Mehmet Salih Bayraktutan, Co-Director, BOTAS, Ankara, Turkey
Approval Date:
15 July 2008
Duration:
3 years 12/2011
NATO Budget:
325,000 EUR
Effective Date: 01 December 2008
Information about the SfP Project through Internet: not available yet
Abstract of Research
The Southern Caucasus- Eastern Turkey energy corridors are formed by several critical pipelines
carrying crude oil and natural gas from Azerbaijan, via Georgia, to Turkey and world markets. In
civil engineering literature, such structures are commonly termed as “Lifelines” for the cities and
countries they cross, because of their importance and the consequences of any damage to them. The
two most important of these pipelines are the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline and
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Natural Gas Pipeline. These two pipelines cross major seismic
zones that have experienced large earthquakes in the past but, to our knowledge, none of these
pipelines has ever been evaluated comprehensively (other than the standard code-based design
studies) for their seismic safety and risk. None of the pipelines has any type of seismic monitoring
system.
The current project that has been carried out with Turkish, Georgian and Azerbaijan researchers
aims to identify the vulnerable segments of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) Crude Oil Pipeline and
the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum (BTE) Natural Gas Pipeline to earthquakes, and provide mitigation
strategies by performing a comprehensive seismic hazard and risk study for the pipelines.
Major Objectives




to assess the seismic hazard in Azerbaijan, Georgia and North Eastern Turkey
to evaluate the seismic safety of the pipelines
to develop efficient seismic risk monitoring and mitigation strategies
to improve environmental security in this part of the world.
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Overview of Achievements since the Start of the Project until (31 March 2009)
 Determination of the study area/ cell area for seismic hazard and risk analyses.
 Determination of magnitude range and type to be used based on available seismicity
information.
 Compilation of active fault maps, geology map,
 Compilation of information on active faults, such as name, type, length, max displacement
 Compilation of seismicity catalogs and construction of a homogeneous complete catalog
 Compilation of available geotechnical information
 Registration of maps to the GIS system
 Compilation of structural characteristic of pipeline
 Purchase of portable monitoring equipment for Georgia
Payments through NATO Funds: 14,619.00 EUR
Milestones for the Next Six Months





Development of probabilistic seismic hazard map
Structural categorization of pipeline segments
Deployment of equipment and ambient noise monitoring
Identification of controlling ground motion parameters
Analysis of ambient noise records
Implementation of Results
First 6 month of the project is reserved mostly for seismicity/geotechnical/tectonic data
compilation. At this stage of the project there is no result to transfer to the end-users. However, all
co-director are in close contact with end-users and all data are ready to use by end-users, if they are
required.
Names of the end-users are:
Ministry of Emergency Situations, Baku, Azerbaijan
Ministry of Ecology and Natural Sources, Baku, Azerbaijan
Ministry of Environmental Protection and Natural Resources of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia
BOTAS, Ankara, Turkey
NATO Consultant
No consultants are foreseen in the project.
Other Collaborating Institutions
No other collaborating institution is available for the project
__________________________________________________________________________
BTC: Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
BTE: Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum
BOTAS: Petroleum Pipeline Corporation
GIS : Geographic Information System
SfP: Science for Peace
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