Global Equity Strategy

Transcription

STRATEGY NOTE
Japan | Equity Strategy
2 March 2015
Global
Japan: Breaking Away from the Myths
Key Takeaway
Ni k k ei 225 I ndex FY1 Ea r ni ngs R evi sion R a t io
We believe investors have under-estimated the positive changes from
improving household disposable income on higher wages, accelerating
exports, lower corporate tax rates and a supplementary budget in the new
fiscal year. Moreover, the demand-supply balance for domestic equities will be
squeezed by a sharp shift in allocation towards domestic equities by the GPIF
and other local pension funds from April as well as ongoing share buybacks.
We are upgrading our price target on the Japanese market (TOPIX) to 1,920.
Previously we had a year-end target (Nikkei) of 19,500. We forecast the yen to
weaken through 125 by the end of the year but we feel that internal drivers will
be more important than macro. We expect the PE multiple to expand helped
by improving margins and better earnings revisions. Japan’s PEG ratio (1.3x)
sits comfortably below the S&P 500 at a time when the TOPIX earnings revision
is almost the best in the world.
The TOPIX trades on 15.0x 12-month forward PE, 1.33x 12-month forward PB
and 1.84% 12-month forward dividend yield. The market expects 12- month
forward earnings growth of 15.9%. We remain Bullish within our global asset
allocation, a stance unchanged for over three years. Technically, the equity
market has broken out in US$ terms and versus gold. Market breadth continues
to expand while the number of stocks making new 52 week highs has grown
from 2014. At present, 32% of the companies within the Topix index are trading
below their 1-year forward book value. The last reported cash to market cap
ratio among the Topix members is at around 41%.
Source: FactSet, Jefferies
Ja pa n E quit y R i sk P r em ium
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
(2.0)
(4.0)
(6.0)
(8.0)
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, Jefferies
Note: Equity Risk Premium = Reported Earnings Yield - 10-year Govt Bond Yield
Sean Darby *
Chief Global Equity Strategist
+852 3743 8073 [email protected]
Makarim Salman, FIA §
Equity Analyst
Yoshihiro Azuma §
Equity Analyst
+81 3 5251 6186 [email protected]
Atul Goyal, CFA ||
Equity Analyst
Chang Han Joo, CFA §
Equity Analyst
Interestingly, the Japanese market has performed well ytd in the absence of any
major policy changes, a relative stable yen and a near doubling in JGB yields.
This hints that the market might be finally divorcing itself from macro drivers and shifting
to more micro issues. Alongside the better earnings picture we have highlighted that the
market has underestimated the improving terms-of-trade (export price to import price), the
tightness in available capacity and labor markets. Furthermore, there are no expectations
for any more tax cuts or indeed any more reform measures. Despite the rise in the equity
market since 2009, the equity risk premium remains elevated. Sentiment indicators such as
the discount to NAV display pessimism. In exhibits 45 to 48, we highlight those Japanese
companies that might be share buyback candidates.
Yukihiro Kumagai §
Equity Analyst
Naomi Kumagai §
Equity Analyst
Takaki Nakanishi §
Equity Analyst
Shinya Naruse §
Equity Analyst
Ken Oiwa §
Equity Analyst
J effer i es J apa n Top P i ck s
Price
Name
Sector
Rating
8306 JP
MUFG
Banks
BUY
778
8697 JP
Japan Exchange Group
Brokers, Asset Mgrs & Exchanges
BUY
3,370
8591 JP
ORIX
Consumer Finance
BUY
1,697
6758 JP
Sony
Consumer Electronics
BUY
3,415
3769 JP
GMO Payment Gateway
Internet
BUY
2,634
9719 JP
SCSK
Computer Services & IT Consulting
BUY
3,285
3436 JP
SUMCO
Chemicals
BUY
2,404
4063 JP
Shin-Etsu
Chemicals
BUY
8,203
Kenneth Chan *
Quantitative Strategist
8801 JP
Mitsui Fudosan
Japan Property
BUY
3,287
3283 JP
Prologis REIT
REITs
BUY
276,000
4503 JP
Astellas Pharma
Pharmaceuticals
BUY
1,901
5406 JP
Kobe Steel
Japanese Steel Producers
BUY
236
6861 JP
Keyence
Capital Goods
BUY
61,100
7272 JP
Yamaha
Autos & Auto Parts
BUY
2,972
5108 JP
Bridgestone
Autos & Auto Parts
BUY
4,584
9104 JP
Mitsui OSK Lines
Transport. & Logistics
BUY
427
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies estimates
Note: Closing price as of February 27, 2015.
(in JPY)
Thanh Ha Pham §
Equity Analyst
Symbol
Hiroko Sato §
Equity Analyst
Vivien Hu *
Equity Associate
* Jefferies Hong Kong Limited
§ Jefferies (Japan) Limited
|| Jefferies Singapore Limited
MCI (P) 055/07/2014
Jefferies does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that Jefferies may have a
conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment
decision. Please see analyst certifications, important disclosure information, and information regarding the status of non-US analysts on pages 21 to 26
of this report.
EQUITY STRATEGY GLOBAL
Global Equity Strategy
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
‘Foreign investors have ignored Japan recently with Europe set to undertake QE from March.
Furthermore, the TOPIX is still range bound in US$ terms meaning investors can adopt ‘a wait and
see’ attitude. However, we remain much more constructive particularly as there are signs of a
bounce in global trade and the credit cycle appears to be finally kicking in. Moreover, global
investors have ignored the sea-change in the corporate tax rate that will occur from April
Equally we highlighted recently in Japan: Myth Busters that while the economy was growing
glacially, current profits to sales were at decade highs for all Tankan surveyed companies.
Moreover, company earnings revisions in Japan are currently some of the best in the world.
Japanese companies are extracting higher profits from meager revenues.
Although there are rising expectations that the BoJ will ease further, we feel monetary conditions
are already very loose. There is already set to be a relaxation in fiscal conditions from April. With
the job-to-applicant ratio rising, wage expectations should be growing while the corporate tax cut
next FY should induce a better environment for investment spending. Historically, Japan has
witnessed positive wage inflation rates whenever the job-to-applicant offers ratio has exceeded
1.1 times. Equally, empirical evidence suggests a 1% cut in the headline corporate tax rate leads
to a positive change of 0.4% in investment spending’, Japan: Asynchronous Returns, 16th
February, 2015
While we have highlighted that investors have been quite skeptical over Abenomics,
companies are generating decade high operating profits relative to sales while dividend per
share growth is outstripping nominal GDP growth. One of the other interesting dynamics is
the supply and demand for Japanese equities. Although share buybacks are still very low
relative to market cap, last year they exceeded net issuance. Furthermore, the changes to
pension fund allocation as well as ongoing BoJ buying will continue to squeeze equity
markets higher in our view.
For instance, in October 2014, the BoJ announced that it would triple its rate of buying of
stock and property funds. The BoJ is committed to annual purchases of ETFs and J-REITs of ¥3
trillion and about ¥90 trillion, respectively. Furthermore, the GPIF will only really begin its
asset allocation from April. Hence, the momentum from domestic fund buying is just
beginning. GPIF has over US1.1 trillion in assets under management and is seeking to take the
weighting of government bonds down from around 49.6% to 35% and increasing the
weighting in Japanese equities from approximately 18% to 25%. At the end of September
2014, the weighting in domestic stocks was 18.2%, but by the end of December, it had
grown to 19.8%.
Besides, other domestic pension funds are also announcing similar changes. For instance in
February this year, Japan’s Federation of National Public Service Personnel Mutual Aid
Association (KKR) which has ¥7.27 trillion under management announced that it would cut its
holdings in Japanese bonds to 35% and lift its ideal equity allocation to 25% from 8%. On any
conservative calculation, the combined buying of BoJ, GPIF and other domestic pension funds
could reach well over US$100bn or around 3% of current market capitalization.
page 2 of 26
Please see important disclosure information on pages 21 - 26 of this report.
Sean Darby, Chief Global Equity Strategist, +852 3743 8073, [email protected]
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Market breadth continues to
improve
Exhibit 1: Japan Cumulative Advance Decline Line
21,000
19,000
18,000
18,000
17,000
15,000
16,000
15,000
12,000
14,000
9,000
13,000
6,000
12,000
3,000
11,000
10,000
0
(3,000)
Feb-13
9,000
8,000
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Cumulative advance/decline Line (LHS)
Nov-14
Nikkei 225 (RHS)
The number of stocks trading above
their 260 day moving average has
begun to rise again
Exhibit 2: Japan Number of Stocks above 260D Moving Average
100
19,000
90
18,000
80
17,000
16,000
70
15,000
60
14,000
50
13,000
40
12,000
30
11,000
20
10,000
10
9,000
0
8,000
10
11
12
13
14
Number of stocks above 260D moving average (%, LHS)
Nikkei 225 (RHS)
The number of stocks making new
52 weeks highs suggests a bullish
equity market
Exhibit 3: Japan Number of New Highs (52-week)
30
19,000
18,000
25
17,000
16,000
20
15,000
14,000
15
13,000
12,000
10
11,000
10,000
5
9,000
0
8,000
10
11
12
Number of New High (%, LHS)
13
14
Nikkei 225 (RHS)
page 3 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Equally, there is no sign of a bear
market
Exhibit 4: Japan Number of New Lows (52-week)
18
19,000
16
18,000
17,000
14
16,000
12
15,000
10
14,000
8
13,000
12,000
6
11,000
4
10,000
2
9,000
0
8,000
10
11
12
13
14
Number of New Low (%, LHS)
Nikkei 225 (RHS)
Only utilities and energy are
struggling
Exhibit 5: Japan Equity Market Sector Breakout
Current price / moving average (%)
Indices
% stocks
Current Price
20 day
50 day
100 day
200 day
RSI (14D)
>200Dma
MSCI JAPAN
938
4.7%
7.4%
10.6%
15.8%
77.8
94%
Consumer Discretionary
171
4.8%
7.3%
12.2%
19.9%
76.4
90%
Consumer Staples
148
3.0%
6.6%
9.6%
14.4%
71.0
100%
Energy
158
4.2%
7.5%
7.6%
1.7%
64.6
100%
Financials
88
7.2%
9.9%
11.7%
14.2%
76.7
100%
Health Care
189
3.3%
9.0%
13.8%
21.1%
75.7
100%
Industrials
185
4.4%
6.8%
9.4%
13.6%
73.6
94%
Information TeUSnology
121
4.0%
4.6%
7.1%
13.3%
70.3
86%
Materials
172
5.0%
8.1%
14.1%
22.1%
76.1
93%
Telecommuncations
82
4.5%
6.9%
7.8%
10.8%
73.9
100%
Utilities
S&P 500 INDEX
STXE 600 € Pr
NIKKEI 225
63
-0.1%
2.5%
5.9%
11.4%
54.4
92%
2,111
1.8%
2.8%
4.1%
5.9%
63.1
76%
391
3.7%
8.8%
12.7%
13.6%
80.6
84%
18,785
4.5%
6.9%
10.4%
16.5%
73.4
92%
Source: Bloomberg, Jefferies
Foreign participation has been
muted
Exhibit 6: Equity Market Flows into Japan
180,000
2750
160,000
140,000
2600
120,000
100,000
2450
80,000
60,000
2300
40,000
20,000
2150
0
(20,000)
Feb-13
2000
May-13
Aug-13
Nov-13
Feb-14
May-14
Aug-14
Nov-14
Foreign Investors Net Inflows (US$mn, cumul, LHS)
Mutual Fund/ETF Investors Net Inflows (US$mn, cumul, LHS)
MSCI Japan (US$, RHS)
Source: Bloomberg, EPFR, Jefferies
page 4 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
The proportion of Japanese stocks
owned by GPIF has not grown
dramatically
Exhibit 7: Japan GPIF Asset Allocation at the end of December 2014
4.30%
Domestic bonds
19.64%
43.13%
Domestic stocks
International bonds
International stocks
13.14%
Short-term assets
19.80%
Source: GPIF, Jefferies
Note: Policy Asset Mix (Domestic bonds 35% (+-10%), Domestic stocks 25% (+-9%),
International bonds 15% (+-4%)
The Nikkei has broken out versus
gold
Exhibit 8: Japan Nikkei 225 Index (JPY)/ Gold Spot Price (US$/oz)
TOPIX has broken out in US$ terms
Exhibit 9: Japan Topix Index since 2010 (in US$)
page 5 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Demand for loans is becoming
stronger…
Exhibit 10: Senior Loan Survey: demand for loans from borrowers by borrower
type (diffusion index, % point)
Source: Bank of Japan, CEIC, Jefferies
…particularly for households
Exhibit 11: Senior Loan Survey: demand for loans from household by type of loan
(diffusion index, % points)
Source: Bank of Japan, CEIC, Jefferies
Japan domestic credit growth is
running at its best annualized pace
in nearly fifteen years
Exhibit 12: Japan Private Sector Domestic Credit Growth % y-y
Source: AHE, Jefferies, CEIC
page 6 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Japanese retail investors have
increased their purchases of stocks
over the past few months but the
household balance sheet wealth
effects have been driven by rising
share prices
Exhibit 13: Japan Household Asset: Shares (JPY trillion, stock)
Source: CEIC, Jefferies
Japanese companies bought back
shares steadily through 2014
Exhibit 14: Japan Share Buybacks as % of Market Capitalisation since the
Beginning of 2014 (Topix members)
Exports in real adjusted terms are
booming
Exhibit 15: Japan Real Exports % y-y
page 7 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Particularly to Asia
Exhibit 16: Japan Exports and Exports to Asia % y-y
Source: CEIC, Jefferies
Consumption has returned albeit
marginally
Exhibit 17: Japan Consumption of Households % q-q (annualized)
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
(5.0)
(10.0)
(15.0)
(20.0)
(25.0)
09
10
11
12
13
14
Industrial production has been tepid
through 2014
Exhibit 18: Japan Industrial Production Index (2010=100)
page 8 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Terms-of-trade have improved
dramatically
Exhibit 19: Citi Japan Terms-of-Trade Index
Steel margins are improving
Exhibit 20: Steel Input Costs Decline Faster than Product Prices-Leading to
Improving Margins (unit :$/t)
Source: Bloomberg, Platts, Jefferies
Note: East Asia Import HRC prices for steel (CFR)
Nominal wage increases % y-y
Exhibit 21: Japan Nominal Wages % y-y
page 9 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Any occasion when the job-toapplicant ratio has climbed to 1.2,
wages grow by 2% per annum
Exhibit 22: Japan Jobs to Applicants Ratio vs. Japan Nominal Wage % y-y
1.4
4.0
1.2
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.8
(2.0)
0.6
(4.0)
0.4
(6.0)
0.2
0.0
(8.0)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Japan Jobs to Applicants Ratio (x, LHS)
Japan All Industries Nominal Wage % y-y (>5 Employees, RHS)
The combination of higher wages
and falling energy prices ought to
boost real disposable incomes
Exhibit 23: Japan Workers Households Real Disposable Income % y-y (3-month
moving average)
Japanese unit labor costs rose in
2014
Exhibit 24: Japan Total Economy Unit Labor Cost % y-y
page 10 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Japan is not a destination for foreign
funds given the low real interest
rates
Exhibit 25: Japan and Germany Real 10 Year Government Bond Yield (%)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
(1.0)
(2.0)
(3.0)
(4.0)
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
Japan Real 10 Year Government Bond Yield (%)
Germany Real 10 Year Government Bond Yield (%)
Note: real 10 year government bond yield (%)= 10 year government bond yield (%) minus
CPI % y-y
To date, the euro’s weakness has less
influential on the yen
Exhibit 26: EURJPY Spot Exchange Rate: Price of 1 EUR in JPY
160.0
150.0
140.0
130.0
120.0
110.0
100.0
90.0
80.0
We expect the yen to depreciate
modestly but this is not the main
reason for the upgrade in our target
price
Exhibit 27: Jefferies FX Forecasts as of February 23, 2015
DM Spot
AUD
CAD
CHF
EUR
GBP
JPY
NOK
NZD
SEK
Spot
End Q1-15 End Q2-15 End Q3-15 End Q4-15
0.78
0.77
0.76
0.73
0.70
1.26
1.27
1.28
1.28
1.28
0.95
0.93
0.95
0.97
0.97
1.14
1.13
1.10
1.08
1.08
1.55
1.50
1.48
1.48
1.48
118.90
121.00
123.00
125.00
126.00
7.59
7.70
8.09
8.24
8.24
0.75
0.75
0.74
0.72
0.70
8.41
8.50
8.82
9.07
9.17
Source: Jefferies
page 11 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Compared to the US, Japan has had
inferior margins and asset turnover.
The latter is due to weak demand
Exhibit 28: Japan Topix vs. US S&P 500 Dupont Analysis Latest
Japan
US
ROE (%, last 12 Net Margin (%,
Financial Leverage Asset Turnover (x, last ROE (%, last 12 Net Margin (%,
Financial Leverage Asset Turnover (x, last
Month)
(x, last 12-month) 12-month)
(x, last 12-month) 12-month)
last 12-month)
Month)
last 12-month)
All Sector
8.76
3.97
2.71
0.82
18.89
9.35
2.64
0.77
Consumer Discretionary
10.07
4.46
2.56
0.88
21.75
7.01
3.20
0.97
Consumer Staple
8.43
3.17
2.30
1.16
24.14
6.08
2.87
1.38
Energy
3.16
0.76
2.87
1.46
11.45
7.08
2.00
0.81
Financials: Real Estate
8.83
6.12
3.60
0.40
14.49
20.74
3.71
0.19
Health Care
7.04
5.20
1.68
0.81
20.88
10.21
2.24
0.91
Industrials
8.52
3.29
3.23
0.80
20.20
9.21
3.53
0.62
Information Technology
8.96
5.21
1.92
0.90
23.45
19.90
1.79
0.66
Materials
7.50
3.99
2.29
0.82
7.49
3.95
2.31
0.82
Telecommunication Service
10.41
7.33
2.60
0.55
10.41
7.33
2.61
0.54
Utilities
7.24
2.51
6.09
0.48
7.24
2.51
6.09
0.47
Note: All sector universes exclude Banks, Insurance and Diversified financials
It took the US market nearly two
years to start to reflect the better
multiples
Exhibit 29: S&P 500 Price to Earnings Ratio (x,12-month forward) vs. Net Margin
(%, 12-month trailing)
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Jefferies
Japanese margins have steadily
improved but the market has still not
given the benefit of the doubt to the
changes. Indeed, with real interest
rates negative the market should be
more willing to allow a higher
market multiple
Exhibit 30: Japan Price to Earnings Ratio (x,12-month forward) vs. Topix Net
Margin (%, 12-month trailing)
Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Jefferies
page 12 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Japan’s PEG ratio is comfortably
below the S&P 500
Exhibit 31: S&P 500 Index and Japan PEG Ratio (x, 12-month forward)
Note: We used FactSet Japan universe as a proxy of the Topix index. The FactSet Japan
universe contains roughly 2000 stocks.
Japan’s ROE remains at around 8%
Exhibit 32: Japan Equity Market 12-month Forward ROE (%)
14
2,000
12
1,500
10
8
1,000
6
4
500
2
0
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Return on Equity
2Y Avg
+1 SD
+2 SD
-1 SD
-2 SD
14
Index (RHS)
Japanese earnings are growing at a
double digit clip
Exhibit 33: Japan Equity Market 12-month Forward EPS Growth (%)
160
2,000
140
1,600
120
100
1,200
80
60
800
40
20
400
0
(20)
0
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
EPS Growth (%, 12-month forward, LHS)
11
12
13
14
Index (RHS)
page 13 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Furthermore, Japanese earnings
revisions have turned broadly
positive…
Exhibit 34: Japan Equity Market FY1 Earnings Revision Ratio
0.30
2,000
0.20
1,600
0.10
0.00
1,200
(0.10)
(0.20)
800
(0.30)
(0.40)
400
(0.50)
(0.60)
0
04
05
06
07
FY1 Earnings Revision Ratio (4wma)
08
09
10
11
12
13
FY1 Earnings Revision Ratio (6mma)
14
Index (RHS)
Note: Earnings Revision= (No. of Upward Rev - No. of Down Rev)/Total No. of Estimates
FY1 = Coming Fiscal Year
We used FactSet Japan universe as a proxy of the Topix index. The FactSet Japan universe
contains roughly 2000 stocks.
…while US earnings revisions have
reversed
Exhibit 35: S&P 500 Index and Nikkei 225 FY1 Earnings Revision Ratio (6mma)
Note: Earnings Revision= (No. of Upward Rev - No. of Down Rev)/Total No. of Estimates
FY1 = Coming Fiscal Year
After the initial hubris over
Abenomics, the closed end funds
have been trading at a sizeable
discount….
Exhibit 36: Japan Closed End Funds & Investment Trust Average Price
Premium/Discount to NAV (%)
Note: we aggregate a selection of Japan closed end and investment trusts and display
the average discount/premium to NAV over time
page 14 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
…despite the fact that real interest
rates are negative
Exhibit 37: Japan Closed End Funds & Investment Trust Average Price
Premium/Discount to NAV (%) vs. Japan Real Prime Interest Rate (%)
Note: we aggregate a selection of Japan closed end and investment trusts and display
the average discount/premium to NAV over time;
Japan real prime interest rate (%)= Japan short-term prime interest rate (%) minus Japan
CPI % y-y
Japanese equities still appear cheap
Exhibit 38: Japan Equity Risk Premium
Note: Equity Risk Premium = Reported Earnings Yield - 10-year Govt Bond Yield
page 15 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Exhibit 39: Brokerage-Institutions (Tokyo & Nagoya) Net
Buying
Exhibit 40: Brokerage-Individuals (Tokyo & Nagoya) Net
Buying
Note: Brokerage includes Institutions, Individuals, Foreigners and
Securities Companies
Exhibit 41: Brokerage-Securities Companies (Tokyo &
Nagoya) Net Buying
Exhibit 42: Brokerage-Foreigners (Tokyo & Nagoya) Net
Buying
Exhibit 43: Brokerage-Institutions (Tokyo & Nagoya)
Trading Turnover Share
Exhibit 44: Brokerage-Foreigners (Tokyo & Nagoya)
Trading Turnover Share
page 16 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Exhibit 45: Japanese Companies Shares BuyBack Candidates (sorted in lowest P/B) (1-40)
Universe=Topix, P/B (x, 12M)<1.2x, FCFY (%, 12M)>0%, NDE(x, 12M)<5x
Bolded companies are those trading below book and in net cash position while positive free cash flow is expected for the coming 12 months
Ticker
6958 JP
6839 JP
2768 JP
6804 JP
4078 JP
3863 JP
5451 JP
3864 JP
9401 JP
5301 JP
5202 JP
5541 JP
4676 JP
6779 JP
8058 JP
9409 JP
3608 JP
8031 JP
3865 JP
2692 JP
3050 JP
9076 JP
6222 JP
4004 JP
8184 JP
9502 JP
5803 JP
1951 JP
1942 JP
5413 JP
9107 JP
9101 JP
2579 JP
7752 JP
7912 JP
6996 JP
6737 JP
4182 JP
9831 JP
6104 JP
Short Name
CMK CORP
FUNAI ELECTRIC
SOJITZ CORP
HOSIDEN CORP
SAKAI CHEM INDUS
NIPPON PAPER IND
YODOGAWA STEEL
MITSUB PAPER
TOKYO BROADCAST
TOKAI CARBON CO
NIPPON SHEET GLA
PAC METALS CO
FUJI MEDIA HOLDI
NIHON DEMPA CO
MITSUBISHI CORP
TV ASAHI HOLDING
TSI HOLDINGS CO
MITSUI & CO
HOKUETSU KISHU P
ITOCHU-SHOKUHIN
DCM HD
SEINO HOLDINGS
SHIMA SEIKI MFG
SHOWA DENKO K K
SHIMACHU
CHUBU ELEC POWER
FUJIKURA LTD
KYOWA EXEO CORP
KANDENKO CO LTD
NISSHIN STEEL CO
KAWASAKI KISEN
NIPPON YUSEN
COCA-COLA WEST C
RICOH CO LTD
DAI NIPPON PRINT
NICHICON CORP
EIZO CORP
MITSUB GAS CHEM
YAMADA DENKI
TOSHIBA MACHINE
Industry Group
Technology Hardware & Equipment
Consumer Durables & Apparel
Capital Goods
Materials
Materials
Materials
Materials
Media
Materials
Capital Goods
Materials
Media
Capital Goods
Media
Capital Goods
Materials
Food & Staples Retailing
Retailing
Transportation
Capital Goods
Materials
Retailing
Utilities
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Materials
Transportation
Transportation
Food Beverage & Tobacco
Commercial & Professional Services
Materials
Retailing
Capital Goods
P/B (x,
12M
forward)
0.35
0.39
0.43
0.47
0.48
0.53
0.56
0.60
0.61
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.65
0.66
0.67
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.69
0.71
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.75
0.76
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.78
FCFY (%,
12M
forward)
1.47
20.66
9.28
12.36
6.23
14.41
4.47
16.55
7.33
0.76
3.03
4.21
0.88
10.08
2.16
6.17
1.68
8.43
9.08
17.13
3.55
1.15
0.31
3.11
3.42
1.79
5.36
9.10
4.01
6.24
4.47
1.92
6.47
5.45
3.45
2.58
1.28
6.53
4.79
2.78
Net D/E
(x, 12M
forward)
(0.04)
(0.47)
1.09
(0.53)
0.08
1.31
(0.19)
2.08
0.00
0.23
1.83
(0.17)
0.05
0.46
0.73
(0.20)
(0.18)
0.65
0.55
(0.03)
0.51
(0.22)
(0.01)
0.98
(0.14)
1.82
0.63
(0.07)
(0.22)
1.07
0.73
1.01
(0.13)
0.45
(0.03)
(0.33)
(0.51)
0.37
0.40
(0.25)
Cash/MC
(%, LFY)
104.98
96.99
182.68
67.79
41.67
40.18
30.59
27.49
20.49
18.88
66.46
40.87
9.25
90.08
34.35
5.69
45.92
41.11
16.07
74.23
9.80
23.88
21.54
27.73
9.72
12.59
22.38
7.50
30.52
22.44
54.51
35.79
21.01
15.93
25.03
24.55
11.93
12.91
15.75
28.07
MC
(US$mn)
169
425
1,909
400
349
2,043
750
258
2,250
663
939
577
3,384
166
32,599
1,692
719
24,967
1,057
455
1,030
2,374
621
2,032
1,363
9,362
1,518
1,152
1,199
1,504
2,857
5,116
1,680
7,465
6,803
718
512
2,471
4,203
661
DY (%,
FY0)
0.00
3.42
2.27
1.98
2.50
2.06
2.34
0.00
1.59
1.69
0.00
0.00
2.11
2.48
3.55
1.60
2.92
4.04
2.32
1.93
3.10
1.12
2.05
2.01
2.52
0.00
1.27
1.81
2.29
1.70
2.02
1.67
2.47
2.77
3.24
1.96
2.04
2.06
1.74
1.54
DY (%,
FY1)
0.63
2.47
2.75
1.47
2.01
2.39
2.05
1.37
1.68
0.28
2.39
2.10
2.96
1.61
2.39
3.82
1.99
1.64
2.31
0.84
1.60
1.86
1.94
0.77
1.40
2.76
2.00
2.26
1.52
1.53
2.19
2.85
2.75
1.65
2.26
2.30
1.19
1.69
PE (x,
FY0)
8.08
23.72
9.89
20.57
112.20
19.49
29.58
25.40
87.14
8.74
16.08
59.54
7.59
16.59
13.89
8.82
12.63
11.17
61.83
12.55
47.25
8.97
25.28
4.97
12.56
15.40
40.44
11.85
24.84
18.33
10.58
17.56
17.02
16.70
PE (x,
FY1)
50.08
26.44
6.95
16.59
8.73
36.34
19.66
26.76
263.16
72.37
16.88
30.17
9.57
16.66
78.86
8.61
19.93
18.96
12.22
20.67
14.06
13.36
15.99
26.86
14.25
8.52
30.78
11.80
12.97
13.79
26.75
10.83
28.15
18.49
16.75
8.65
23.30
17.14
ROE (x,
12M)
1.07
1.52
6.23
0.51
3.87
4.22
2.50
0.59
2.90
1.53
5.61
3.81
4.15
7.05
4.36
1.95
7.68
3.45
4.09
6.22
4.35
3.89
5.98
4.95
3.04
6.56
8.71
2.92
7.69
7.76
7.50
2.92
7.67
2.89
4.63
5.25
7.31
4.39
5.80
Jefferies
Research
Rating
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
BUY
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
UNDERPERFORM
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
BUY
BUY
BUY
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
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page 17 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Ticker
6419 JP
5201 JP
5482 JP
5706 JP
3861 JP
8001 JP
7943 JP
5444 JP
6581 JP
3591 JP
1820 JP
9749 JP
1721 JP
9605 JP
5943 JP
6929 JP
7251 JP
8022 JP
5232 JP
6947 JP
5802 JP
6997 JP
3291 JP
1944 JP
9413 JP
8251 JP
9432 JP
7274 JP
6345 JP
9370 JP
9072 JP
5411 JP
9869 JP
1911 JP
8219 JP
1924 JP
4901 JP
5471 JP
4183 JP
6875 JP
Short Name
MARS ENGINEER
ASAHI GLASS CO
AICHI STEEL CORP
MITSUI MINING &
OJI HOLDINGS COR
ITOCHU CORP
NICHIHA CORP
YAMATO KOGYO
HITACHI KOKI CO
WACOAL HOLDINGS
NISHIMATSU CONST
FUJI SOFT INC
COMSYS HOLDINGS
TOEI CO LTD
NORITZ CORP
NIPPON CERAMIC
KEIHIN CORP
MIZUNO CORP
SUMITOMO OSAKA
ZUKEN INC
SUMITOMO ELEC IN
NIPPON CHEMI-CON
IIDA GROUP HDS
KINDEN CORP
TV TOKYO HD
PARCO
NIPPON TELEGRAPH
SHOWA CORP
AICHI CORP
YUSEN LOGISTICS
NIPPON KONPO UNY
JFE HOLDINGS INC
KATO SANGYO CO
SUMITOMO FOREST
AOYAMA TRADING
PANAHOME CORP
FUJIFILM HOLDING
DAIDO STEEL CO
MITSUI CHEMICALS
MEGACHIPS CORP
Industry Group
Capital Goods
Materials
Materials
Materials
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Materials
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Software & Services
Capital Goods
Media
Capital Goods
Automobiles & Components
Materials
Software & Services
Capital Goods
Media
Retailing
Telecommunication Services
Capital Goods
Transportation
Transportation
Materials
Retailing
Materials
Materials
Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
P/B (x,
12M
forward)
0.78
0.78
0.79
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.82
0.83
0.83
0.83
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.84
0.85
0.86
0.86
0.86
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.88
0.88
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.91
0.91
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.94
FCFY (%,
12M
forward)
4.59
3.76
0.96
6.67
1.69
3.93
7.84
6.50
0.56
5.34
3.70
7.67
7.97
8.68
2.84
5.82
7.84
6.91
6.38
2.16
3.37
3.54
6.13
6.95
7.36
5.13
7.10
1.14
4.28
5.09
1.95
3.49
8.97
4.82
2.04
0.99
6.04
2.08
5.53
4.58
Net D/E
(x, 12M
forward)
(0.32)
0.38
0.28
1.01
0.93
0.85
0.12
(0.19)
(0.03)
(0.07)
0.01
(0.02)
(0.17)
(0.05)
(0.23)
(0.56)
(0.11)
0.16
0.33
(0.67)
0.21
0.15
0.29
(0.20)
(0.33)
0.34
0.24
(0.14)
0.03
(0.07)
(0.00)
0.70
(0.62)
(0.12)
(0.15)
(0.11)
(0.11)
0.29
0.99
0.38
Cash/MC
(%, LFY)
32.22
7.83
30.90
9.85
8.12
29.53
32.86
32.53
15.97
16.82
42.07
17.63
14.70
22.01
21.25
71.65
16.85
18.26
20.53
20.24
13.19
38.71
26.51
11.72
31.11
3.35
11.60
22.52
2.50
46.50
11.60
3.44
65.56
33.01
17.27
78.31
28.50
17.20
19.24
30.77
MC
(US$mn)
421
7,398
997
1,311
4,540
18,504
418
1,894
959
1,531
1,064
723
1,770
1,019
853
364
1,254
667
1,287
211
10,345
537
4,140
2,788
551
882
71,684
810
393
554
1,161
15,487
772
1,858
2,073
1,105
17,851
1,999
3,160
283
DY (%,
FY0)
3.09
3.06
2.46
1.68
2.16
3.81
2.61
0.99
2.97
3.13
1.80
1.14
1.55
1.13
1.62
1.96
2.06
1.72
1.17
1.71
1.43
0.00
1.12
1.80
2.00
2.04
3.03
2.47
2.18
1.38
2.75
2.06
1.91
1.83
3.32
2.82
1.80
0.97
1.19
2.81
DY (%,
FY1)
2.93
2.41
1.68
1.53
1.97
3.46
1.69
1.04
2.58
2.35
1.54
1.10
2.07
0.79
1.60
2.31
1.66
1.67
1.58
1.29
1.63
0.22
2.29
1.12
1.20
1.73
2.40
2.82
1.69
1.17
2.16
2.01
1.83
1.51
1.73
2.55
1.40
1.20
1.29
2.26
PE (x,
FY0)
8.65
42.77
14.51
37.13
13.50
7.77
7.76
23.14
48.36
14.68
16.57
15.72
11.89
12.02
27.14
25.46
9.07
27.57
13.33
40.89
18.25
14.41
6.78
13.51
17.11
13.19
11.03
12.56
15.97
41.77
10.94
10.95
14.91
8.15
12.62
13.34
16.49
17.74
5.98
PE (x,
FY1)
12.25
25.27
21.76
8.53
22.30
7.14
11.76
16.74
24.43
21.65
14.63
15.93
9.85
15.37
16.73
22.45
12.28
21.40
12.67
23.82
10.54
12.16
18.90
18.39
18.42
15.55
15.34
10.50
17.42
29.96
13.85
12.75
15.52
12.89
19.69
15.17
18.17
20.11
21.54
17.65
ROE (x,
12M)
6.68
3.18
3.47
11.04
5.36
11.86
8.10
6.23
3.53
4.41
7.66
5.41
8.73
5.97
4.94
3.73
8.41
3.76
7.85
4.90
7.65
7.37
6.76
5.06
6.34
6.15
6.69
10.00
6.07
5.48
7.23
9.23
6.37
7.57
5.12
6.22
5.46
6.72
6.49
5.67
Jefferies
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Rating
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NC
NC
NC
NC
BUY
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
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NC
NC
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HOLD
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BUY
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NC
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NC
HOLD
UNDERPERFORM
UNDERPERFORM
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page 18 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Ticker
6676 JP
6810 JP
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6134 JP
6773 JP
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6768 JP
2590 JP
4471 JP
5401 JP
8129 JP
9987 JP
6135 JP
6632 JP
9364 JP
5463 JP
6113 JP
5711 JP
6641 JP
5713 JP
7230 JP
7817 JP
8218 JP
8282 JP
6417 JP
4061 JP
6361 JP
9065 JP
6915 JP
6201 JP
2607 JP
3231 JP
6995 JP
6457 JP
7731 JP
7451 JP
7267 JP
3626 JP
Short Name
MELCO HOLDINGS I
HITACHI MAXELL
MEDIPAL HD
SANYO DENKI
FUJI MACHINE MFG
PIONEER CORP
CALSONIC KANSEI
NIPPON SODA CO
TAMURA CORP
DYDO DRINCO INC
SANYO CHEMICAL
NSSMC
TOHO HOLDINGS CO
SUZUKEN CO LTD
MAKINO MILL MACH
JVC KENWOOD CORP
KAMIGUMI CO LTD
MARUICHI STL TUB
AMADA CO LTD
MITSUB MATERIALS
NISSIN ELECTRIC
SUMITOMO MET MIN
NISSIN KOGYO CO
PARAMOUNT BED HO
KOMERI CO LTD
K'S HOLDINGS COR
SANKYO CO/
DENKI KAGAKU
EBARA CORP
SANKYU INC
CHIYODA INTEGRE
TOYOTA INDUSTRIE
FUJI OIL
NOMURA REAL ESTA
TOKAI RIKA
GLORY LTD
NIKON CORP
MITSUBISHI SHOKU
HONDA MOTOR CO
IT HOLDINGS CORP
Industry Group
Health Care Equipment & Services
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Materials
Materials
Materials
Capital Goods
Transportation
Materials
Capital Goods
Materials
Capital Goods
Materials
Retailing
Retailing
Materials
Capital Goods
Transportation
Capital Goods
Real Estate
Capital Goods
Software & Services
P/B (x,
12M
forward)
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.94
0.95
0.95
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.97
0.98
0.98
0.98
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.99
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.02
1.02
1.03
1.03
1.03
1.04
FCFY (%,
12M
forward)
9.26
5.99
12.94
3.16
0.92
48.04
8.60
5.34
5.81
1.72
2.45
4.70
18.03
7.00
3.67
14.51
2.48
2.06
1.52
3.20
6.24
3.72
2.92
7.90
3.87
4.90
2.61
3.38
1.63
1.09
6.26
2.30
2.43
0.56
9.11
8.46
7.61
9.52
2.53
4.64
Net D/E
(x, 12M
forward)
(0.84)
(0.13)
(0.31)
(0.13)
(0.37)
0.43
0.02
0.25
0.25
(0.51)
0.00
0.56
(0.14)
(0.36)
0.13
0.41
(0.12)
(0.24)
(0.13)
0.99
(0.06)
0.18
(0.26)
(0.36)
0.31
0.16
(0.64)
0.49
0.07
0.33
(0.40)
0.20
0.09
1.21
(0.30)
(0.06)
(0.21)
(0.52)
0.60
0.07
Cash/MC
(%, LFY)
21.85
14.02
35.54
26.09
35.17
39.46
9.31
11.07
35.91
40.60
13.89
3.47
11.27
23.65
36.22
101.37
4.68
23.70
16.10
9.48
13.65
6.49
25.18
28.75
8.42
4.79
28.33
3.88
41.29
16.41
37.15
12.28
10.06
11.28
10.80
27.04
36.53
0.26
16.38
23.26
MC
(US$mn)
368
915
3,104
442
1,122
749
1,626
949
289
682
951
25,363
1,335
2,984
1,018
459
2,690
2,259
3,653
4,584
617
9,163
1,047
816
1,306
1,907
3,688
1,808
2,013
1,383
284
18,539
1,215
3,403
2,028
1,829
5,170
1,225
60,358
1,560
DY (%,
FY0)
2.64
3.75
1.46
2.25
1.76
0.00
1.57
1.43
2.30
1.39
2.27
1.77
0.92
1.35
1.38
0.00
1.10
2.75
2.75
2.05
2.26
2.85
2.08
1.55
1.28
2.44
3.45
2.82
1.16
2.33
2.57
1.71
1.97
1.78
2.65
1.73
1.93
1.80
2.26
1.48
DY (%,
FY1)
2.03
3.06
1.57
1.98
1.48
1.33
1.08
1.50
1.22
1.56
1.67
1.11
1.41
1.19
PE (x,
FY0)
15.91
14.20
13.99
11.11
34.20
148.32
5.13
14.62
11.91
19.23
14.82
10.57
15.65
16.79
18.83
0.93
2.53
2.33
1.94
1.89
2.47
2.13
1.90
1.26
1.92
3.31
2.60
1.65
1.87
1.58
1.54
1.65
1.87
1.95
1.54
2.10
1.67
2.22
1.45
16.94
16.45
22.77
7.31
10.62
8.92
10.23
13.38
13.48
8.66
18.13
12.19
15.83
12.73
7.96
16.94
13.92
14.00
9.09
18.70
14.08
13.84
11.41
18.79
PE (x,
FY1)
15.57
15.14
16.75
9.76
15.71
4.62
9.39
12.44
12.15
29.85
16.31
13.72
12.99
19.66
13.39
83.62
19.72
18.98
22.85
10.64
13.70
10.61
12.49
13.77
20.35
11.83
31.81
11.91
12.19
13.02
12.26
17.74
16.20
13.52
11.06
17.94
26.09
13.53
12.56
17.68
ROE (x,
12M)
5.47
5.96
5.60
9.49
6.55
5.63
11.31
8.87
9.05
3.42
6.92
10.10
6.76
5.46
8.93
3.91
5.24
5.49
4.98
10.38
8.59
11.21
9.47
7.65
6.52
9.07
4.57
8.13
9.19
8.61
9.74
6.49
7.34
8.48
10.52
6.37
5.81
8.35
9.82
7.54
Jefferies
Research
Rating
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
UNDERPERFORM
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
UNDERPERFORM
NC
BUY
BUY
page 19 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Ticker
9086 JP
4581 JP
4680 JP
6844 JP
7201 JP
6816 JP
6971 JP
1969 JP
8015 JP
7259 JP
6588 JP
2284 JP
7282 JP
9507 JP
9506 JP
1928 JP
6305 JP
7220 JP
5406 JP
5302 JP
5101 JP
9069 JP
4099 JP
7545 JP
6963 JP
2432 JP
9532 JP
3086 JP
6282 JP
1979 JP
2784 JP
7740 JP
7864 JP
4554 JP
4902 JP
6976 JP
6794 JP
1824 JP
7262 JP
6366 JP
2501 JP
7518 JP
2810 JP
4042 JP
5991 JP
4005 JP
6622 JP
4578 JP
7966 JP
Short Name
HITACHI TRANSPOR
TAISHO PHARMACEU
ROUND ONE CORP
SHINDENGEN ELEC
NISSAN MOTOR CO
ALPINE ELEC INC
KYOCERA CORP
TAKASAGO THERMAL
TOYOTA TSUSHO
AISIN SEIKI CO
TOSHIBA TEC CORP
ITOHAM FOODS INC
TOYODA GOSEI
SHIKOKU ELEC PWR
TOHOKU ELEC PWR
SEKISUI HOUSE
HITACHI CONST MA
MUSASHI SEIMITSU
KOBE STEEL LTD
NIPPON CARBON
YOKOHAMA RUBBER
SENKO CO LTD
SHIKOKU CHEMICAL
NISHIMATSUYA CHA
ROHM CO LTD
DENA CO LTD
OSAKA GAS CO LTD
J FRONT RETAILIN
OILES CORP
TAIKISHA LTD
ALFRESA HOLDINGS
TAMRON
FUJI SEAL INTER
FUJI PHARMA CO
KONICA MINOLTA
TAIYO YUDEN CO
FOSTER ELECTRIC
MAEDA CORP
DAIHATSU MOTOR
CHIYODA CORP
SAPPORO HOLDINGS
NET ONE SYSTEMS
HOUSE FOODS GROU
TOSOH CORP
NHK SPRING CO
SUMITOMO CHEM CO
DAIHEN CORP
OTSUKA HOLDINGS
LINTEC CORP
Industry Group
Transportation
Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Consumer Services
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Utilities
Utilities
Capital Goods
Materials
Capital Goods
Transportation
Materials
Retailing
Software & Services
Utilities
Retailing
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Materials
Capital Goods
Capital Goods
Software & Services
Materials
Materials
Capital Goods
Materials
P/B (x,
12M
forward)
1.04
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.05
1.06
1.06
1.06
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.08
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.09
1.10
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.12
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.13
1.14
1.14
1.15
1.15
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.16
1.17
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.19
1.19
1.20
1.20
1.20
FCFY (%,
12M
forward)
3.35
3.06
18.82
10.53
0.97
5.18
3.43
2.41
1.66
1.01
7.80
4.82
2.22
1.10
5.09
1.22
9.33
1.06
3.38
2.50
2.31
0.65
10.67
7.83
0.87
8.07
2.80
1.61
3.74
4.54
18.78
8.02
2.86
3.92
4.53
2.18
3.85
7.41
3.98
8.78
6.49
3.81
1.51
9.73
4.41
7.73
3.86
7.24
5.94
Net D/E
(x, 12M
forward)
0.29
(0.25)
0.01
(0.07)
0.57
(0.36)
(0.28)
(0.38)
0.80
(0.01)
(0.26)
0.05
(0.09)
2.21
4.01
0.15
0.53
0.46
0.70
0.10
0.41
0.98
(0.45)
(0.60)
(0.42)
(0.43)
0.50
0.30
(0.20)
(0.42)
(0.57)
(0.36)
0.03
(0.03)
0.01
0.06
0.26
0.39
(0.14)
(0.52)
1.33
(0.30)
(0.17)
0.73
(0.07)
0.82
0.23
(0.34)
(0.32)
Cash/MC
(%, LFY)
8.78
19.76
38.06
61.02
14.47
31.33
14.73
37.72
34.58
19.82
22.69
6.11
26.57
3.24
20.87
16.13
11.24
13.51
15.16
23.00
11.11
19.36
18.22
36.26
31.30
30.56
6.12
7.57
13.34
38.22
30.73
24.64
8.62
23.03
15.30
33.99
12.30
12.21
20.61
15.00
5.26
25.85
10.35
15.34
20.54
8.91
10.74
22.64
23.45
MC
(US$mn)
1,676
6,171
545
551
47,938
1,234
19,058
1,019
9,909
10,976
1,758
1,348
2,927
2,929
6,022
9,462
3,982
665
7,236
312
3,508
758
491
574
7,317
1,793
8,628
3,806
676
870
3,273
539
907
300
5,231
1,454
568
1,460
6,170
2,133
1,558
589
2,158
3,078
2,597
7,685
706
16,767
1,788
DY (%,
FY0)
1.55
1.32
2.26
2.19
3.26
1.85
1.72
2.37
1.91
2.55
1.36
1.49
2.83
0.00
0.47
3.00
2.52
2.07
2.92
2.18
2.35
3.57
1.61
2.57
1.09
1.98
2.30
1.71
2.27
2.01
1.55
2.09
1.14
2.17
1.82
0.79
3.18
1.08
3.07
1.20
1.37
4.85
2.04
1.51
2.09
2.36
1.70
2.11
2.13
DY (%,
FY1)
1.61
1.35
2.92
1.57
2.66
1.28
1.33
1.75
1.79
2.18
1.86
1.23
2.12
0.56
1.02
3.06
2.71
1.91
1.69
1.62
2.31
2.42
1.20
1.95
1.26
1.23
1.87
1.41
2.38
1.60
1.65
2.34
1.17
1.97
1.66
0.70
1.44
0.74
3.00
1.65
1.48
3.72
1.28
1.45
1.65
1.67
1.30
2.07
1.66
PE (x,
FY0)
34.41
20.61
3.87
9.91
10.23
19.23
19.85
12.60
11.66
22.59
21.03
9.77
15.47
12.09
14.59
9.71
6.06
32.44
8.82
8.81
11.08
16.42
15.47
7.68
19.51
10.77
14.96
19.28
14.57
17.05
18.40
14.45
23.27
21.44
12.62
12.44
9.28
25.64
588.51
61.49
20.62
8.06
9.42
16.84
16.02
11.10
17.23
PE (x,
FY1)
17.51
26.21
15.16
9.14
11.70
14.14
22.86
19.78
14.29
14.56
17.94
20.67
15.04
26.57
9.79
12.82
15.16
11.90
11.95
31.92
9.31
11.70
13.94
19.23
20.09
12.14
13.33
22.91
16.71
18.71
21.63
14.09
17.10
15.70
18.01
20.12
13.82
14.03
12.35
18.92
20.95
27.89
36.40
5.86
13.45
17.88
14.65
14.22
17.25
ROE (x,
12M)
7.30
4.42
8.73
13.02
10.59
6.73
5.01
6.36
7.37
8.86
9.59
4.92
8.64
4.65
10.05
9.24
8.74
11.54
9.73
12.55
11.37
9.27
7.00
4.97
9.35
9.16
5.81
8.13
6.75
5.45
8.58
8.28
8.21
8.56
8.57
11.07
8.77
9.96
8.63
5.75
4.82
4.05
13.39
10.39
10.32
9.54
5.54
7.94
Jefferies
Research
Rating
NC
NC
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
BUY
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
HOLD
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
NC
BUY
NC
NC
NC
UNDERPERFORM
UNDERPERFORM
NC
HOLD
NC
HOLD
NC
HOLD
NC
HOLD
NC
page 20 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Analyst Certification:
I, Sean Darby, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations
or views expressed in this research report.
I, Makarim Salman, FIA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
I, Yoshihiro Azuma, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Atul Goyal, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Chang Han Joo, CFA, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject
security(ies) and subject company(ies). I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific
recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
I, Yukihiro Kumagai, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Naomi Kumagai, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Takaki Nakanishi, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Shinya Naruse, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Ken Oiwa, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Thanh Ha Pham, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Hiroko Sato, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Kenneth Chan, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
I, Vivien Hu, certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject security(ies) and
Registration of non-US analysts: Sean Darby is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may
not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances
and trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Makarim Salman, FIA is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not
registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and
therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Yoshihiro Azuma is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Atul Goyal, CFA is employed by Jefferies Singapore Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Chang Han Joo, CFA is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not
registered/qualified as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and
therefore may not be subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Yukihiro Kumagai is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
page 21 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Registration of non-US analysts: Naomi Kumagai is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Takaki Nakanishi is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Shinya Naruse is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Ken Oiwa is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/qualified
as a research analyst with FINRA. This analyst(s) may not be an associated person of Jefferies LLC, a FINRA member firm, and therefore may not be
subject to the NASD Rule 2711 and Incorporated NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances and
trading securities held by a research analyst.
Registration of non-US analysts: Thanh Ha Pham is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Hiroko Sato is employed by Jefferies (Japan) Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Kenneth Chan is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
Registration of non-US analysts: Vivien Hu is employed by Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, a non-US affiliate of Jefferies LLC and is not registered/
As is the case with all Jefferies employees, the analyst(s) responsible for the coverage of the financial instruments discussed in this report receives
compensation based in part on the overall performance of the firm, including investment banking income. We seek to update our research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent us from doing so. Aside from certain industry reports published on a periodic basis, the large majority
of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgement.
Company Specific Disclosures
For Important Disclosure information on companies recommended in this report, please visit our website at https://javatar.bluematrix.com/sellside/
Disclosures.action or call 212.284.2300.
Meanings of Jefferies Ratings
Buy - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of 15% or more within a 12-month period.
Hold - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total return (price appreciation plus yield) of plus 15% or minus 10% within a 12-month period.
Underperform - Describes stocks that we expect to provide a total negative return (price appreciation plus yield) of 10% or more within a 12-month
period.
The expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) for Buy rated stocks with an average stock price consistently below $10 is 20% or more within
a 12-month period as these companies are typically more volatile than the overall stock market. For Hold rated stocks with an average stock price
consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is plus or minus 20% within a 12-month period. For Underperform
rated stocks with an average stock price consistently below $10, the expected total return (price appreciation plus yield) is minus 20% within a 12month period.
NR - The investment rating and price target have been temporarily suspended. Such suspensions are in compliance with applicable regulations and/
or Jefferies policies.
CS - Coverage Suspended. Jefferies has suspended coverage of this company.
NC - Not covered. Jefferies does not cover this company.
Restricted - Describes issuers where, in conjunction with Jefferies engagement in certain transactions, company policy or applicable securities
regulations prohibit certain types of communications, including investment recommendations.
Monitor - Describes stocks whose company fundamentals and financials are being monitored, and for which no financial projections or opinions on
the investment merits of the company are provided.
Valuation Methodology
Jefferies' methodology for assigning ratings may include the following: market capitalization, maturity, growth/value, volatility and expected total
return over the next 12 months. The price targets are based on several methodologies, which may include, but are not restricted to, analyses of market
risk, growth rate, revenue stream, discounted cash flow (DCF), EBITDA, EPS, cash flow (CF), free cash flow (FCF), EV/EBITDA, P/E, PE/growth, P/CF,
page 22 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
P/FCF, premium (discount)/average group EV/EBITDA, premium (discount)/average group P/E, sum of the parts, net asset value, dividend returns,
and return on equity (ROE) over the next 12 months.
Jefferies Franchise Picks
Jefferies Franchise Picks include stock selections from among the best stock ideas from our equity analysts over a 12 month period. Stock selection
is based on fundamental analysis and may take into account other factors such as analyst conviction, differentiated analysis, a favorable risk/reward
ratio and investment themes that Jefferies analysts are recommending. Jefferies Franchise Picks will include only Buy rated stocks and the number
can vary depending on analyst recommendations for inclusion. Stocks will be added as new opportunities arise and removed when the reason for
inclusion changes, the stock has met its desired return, if it is no longer rated Buy and/or if it triggers a stop loss. Stocks having 120 day volatility in
the bottom quartile of S&P stocks will continue to have a 15% stop loss, and the remainder will have a 20% stop. Franchise Picks are not intended
to represent a recommended portfolio of stocks and is not sector based, but we may note where we believe a Pick falls within an investment style
such as growth or value.
Risk which may impede the achievement of our Price Target
This report was prepared for general circulation and does not provide investment recommendations specific to individual investors. As such, the
financial instruments discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors and investors must make their own investment decisions based
upon their specific investment objectives and financial situation utilizing their own financial advisors as they deem necessary. Past performance of
the financial instruments recommended in this report should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future results. The price, value of, and
income from, any of the financial instruments mentioned in this report can rise as well as fall and may be affected by changes in economic, financial
and political factors. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency other than the investor's home currency, a change in exchange rates may
adversely affect the price of, value of, or income derived from the financial instrument described in this report. In addition, investors in securities such
as ADRs, whose values are affected by the currency of the underlying security, effectively assume currency risk.
Other Companies Mentioned in This Report
• Aisin Seiki (7259 JP: ¥4,405, HOLD)
• Astellas Pharma (4503 JP: ¥1,901, BUY)
• Bridgestone (5108 JP: ¥4,584, BUY)
• CHIYODA Corporation (6366 JP: ¥971, UNDERPERFORM)
• Daido Steel (5471 JP: ¥545, UNDERPERFORM)
• Daihatsu Motor (7262 JP: ¥1,712, UNDERPERFORM)
• DeNA Co Ltd. (2432 JP: ¥1,430, HOLD)
• FUJIFILM Holdings Corporation (4901 JP: ¥4,123, HOLD)
• GMO Payment Gateway Inc. (3769 JP: ¥2,634, BUY)
• Hitachi Construction Machinery (6305 JP: ¥2,213, HOLD)
• Honda Motor (7267 JP: ¥3,950, BUY)
• IT Holdings Corporation (3626 JP: ¥2,110, BUY)
• ITOCHU Corporation (8001 JP: ¥1,340, BUY)
• JFE Holdings Inc. (5411 JP: ¥2,988, BUY)
• Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. (9107 JP: ¥364, BUY)
• Keyence (6861 JP: ¥61,100, BUY)
• Kobe Steel (5406 JP: ¥236, BUY)
• Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. (4902 JP: ¥1,220, BUY)
• Maruichi Steel Tube (5463 JP: ¥2,850, UNDERPERFORM)
• Mitsubishi Corporation (8058 JP: ¥2,391, BUY)
• Mitsui & Company (8031 JP: ¥1,663, HOLD)
• Mitsui Chemicals Inc. (4183 JP: ¥368, UNDERPERFORM)
• Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP: ¥3,287, BUY)
• Net One Systems Co., Ltd. (7518 JP: ¥820, HOLD)
• Nikon (7731 JP: ¥1,545, UNDERPERFORM)
• Nippon Prologis REIT, Inc. (3283 JP: ¥276,000, BUY)
• Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation (5401 JP: ¥318, HOLD)
• Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (9101 JP: ¥359, BUY)
• Nissan Motor (7201 JP: ¥1,264, HOLD)
• Nisshin Steel (5413 JP: ¥1,667, BUY)
• ORIX Corporation (8591 JP: ¥1,697, BUY)
• Otsuka Holdings (4578 JP: ¥3,585, HOLD)
• Ricoh Company, Ltd. (7752 JP: ¥1,189, HOLD)
• SCSK Corporation (9719 JP: ¥3,285, BUY)
• Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063 JP: ¥8,203, BUY)
• Showa Corporation (7274 JP: ¥1,257, HOLD)
• Showa Denko K. K. (4004 JP: ¥161, UNDERPERFORM)
• Sojitz (2768 JP: ¥183, HOLD)
• Sony Corp (6758 JP: ¥3,415, BUY)
• SUMCO (3436 JP: ¥2,404, BUY)
• Sumitomo Chemical Co Ltd. (4005 JP: ¥559, HOLD)
• Tosoh Corporation (4042 JP: ¥599, HOLD)
• Yamaha Motor (7272 JP: ¥2,972, BUY)
• Yokohama Rubber (5101 JP: ¥1,216, HOLD)
page 23 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Distribution of Ratings
IB Serv./Past 12 Mos.
Rating
BUY
HOLD
UNDERPERFORM
page 24 of 26
Count
Percent
Count
Percent
1060
832
175
51.28%
40.25%
8.47%
291
156
11
27.45%
18.75%
6.29%
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
Other Important Disclosures
Jefferies Equity Research refers to research reports produced by analysts employed by one of the following Jefferies Group LLC (“Jefferies”) group
companies:
United States: Jefferies LLC which is an SEC registered firm and a member of FINRA.
United Kingdom: Jefferies International Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority; registered in England and
Wales No. 1978621; registered office: Vintners Place, 68 Upper Thames Street, London EC4V 3BJ; telephone +44 (0)20 7029 8000; facsimile +44 (0)20
7029 8010.
Hong Kong: Jefferies Hong Kong Limited, which is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong with CE number ATS546; located
at Suite 2201, 22nd Floor, Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong.
Singapore: Jefferies Singapore Limited, which is licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; located at 80 Raffles Place #15-20, UOB Plaza 2,
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page 25 of 26
Equity Strategy
Global
2 March 2015
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page 26 of 26

Global Equity Strategy

Transcription

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