Greg Carbin DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center

Greg Carbin
DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP
Storm Prediction Center
1
Jan. 28-30/Feb. 10 – Early Severe
740
January 30, 2013
EF3 Tornado Near Adairsville, Georgia Before Noon
Just Ten Days Later…Sunday, Feb. 10, 2013
5:15 PM CST
L
+ SBCAPE: 400-1100 J/kg
40-50KT
5:15 PM CST, Hattiesburg, Mississippi EF4
NWS Little Rock, AR
From WSB-TV
fshelton25
Early 2013 Multi-day Outbreak
Greatest Number of Jan. Reports on Record
Eric Price/YouTube
Benny Boo Boo/TWC
Killer EF3 Ends 219 Day Fatality-Free Stretch
EF4 on Feb. 10 – Total Damages Top $95M
2
Feb. 7-10 – #Nor'easter!
On the 35th Anniversary of the Great Blizzard of February ’78 Loop of Water Vapor Imagery and Surface Pressure
15 UTC – 12 UTC Feb. 8-9, 2013
Classic Bombogenesis! Pressure drops 992mb to 970mb in 24h.
NCDC Regional Snowfall Index:
“RSI”
9.04 = Category 3 (out of 5)
16th out of 193 Nor’easters
since 1900.
NCDC Regional Snowfall Index:
“RSI”
9.04 = Category 3 (out of 5)
16th out of 193 Nor’easters
since 1900.
Greatest accumulations stretched from
south-central CT, where Hamden picked up
40”, to Gorham, Maine with three feet.
Portland, ME: 31.9”, Greatest on record
Hartford, CT: 22.3”, 2nd greatest on record*
Concord, NH: 24”, 2nd greatest on record
Worcester, MA: 28.7”, 3rd greatest
Logan Airport, MA: 24.9”, 5th greatest
*1st ) 24” A year earlier on Jan. 12, 2011.
3
March–April Flip Flop, `13 vs. `12
St. Paul, MN, April 11, 2013
Photo by Jeffrey Thompson
What a Difference a Year Makes!
Difference in 2m Temp (C) Mar-Apr. 2013 from Mar-Apr. 2012
What a Difference One Year Makes!
Daily Max/Min Temperature Records (2012-left, 2013-right)
Only stations with 75+ year record used. Only records > 1F plotted.
Only 14 Tornadoes in March 2013. Why So Few?
Dramatic Shift in Temps from MA ’12 to MA ‘13
1, 2, 3-Day Snowstorm Records in MN…
IN MAY!
Near Record Low Number of Tornadoes
4
May 18,19,20 – Tornadoes
Saturday
May 18
Rozel, Kansas
Population 157
Saturday
May 18
Sunday
May 19
Shawnee, Okla.
Population 40k
Saturday
May 18
Sunday
May 19
Monday
May 20
Moore, Okla.
Population 100k
Courtesy: NWS Norman, OK
Chris Broyles
Second Half of May ‘13 Roars to Life
Sarah Phipps, The Oklahoman
3-Day Outbreak Ends with Tragedy (26 Dead)
Rare 3 Consecutive Days w/ F4-5 Tornadoes
5
May 31 – El Reno (WTEF?)
Experimental Products Reviewed in the NOAA/HWT
Experimental Products Reviewed in the NOAA/HWT
~ 4-hour loop of images from NSSL phased-array radar.
~ 1-minute per scan between 4:00-8:00 pm CDT
Zoomed loop from NSSL phased-array radar.
~ 1 minute scans between 5:45 and 7:00 pm CDT
Really zoomed image from NSSL phased-array radar at
6:13 pm CDT & RaX Pol radar fromOU
OKC receives 7-8 inches May 31, 2013
May 31 El Reno, OK Tornado: A Beast
Does Volatile Environment = Erratic Behavior?
Chasers Die in Pursuit, Evacuees Die in Flood
OKC: New May Rainfall Record 14.52”
Mike Shepherd/Capital Journal
6
June 12-13 — Derechoes
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
C)
B)
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
C)
B)
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
C)
B)
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
B)
C)
June 12, 2013
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
B)
C)
June 13, 2013
Match the 12Z 300mb Map with the Reports on that Day
A)
B)
C)
June 29, 2013
Why 2013 and 2012 Derechos Were Not Created Equal
Lapse Rates!
Morning of June 12, 2013
Morning of June 29, 2012
Scott Olson
Not as Bad as 2012 but 2 Ds in 2 Days
Uwharrie Mountain Lake, NC
34 Tornadoes and 715 Wind Reports
Bryon Houlgrave/AP
2 Fatalities, 12 Injuries, ~$20M Damage
James Miller/Marion Star
Jason DeVries
7
AZ
June 30 – Yarnell Hill Fire
AP Photo by David Kadlubowski
AZ
Yarnell, Arizona is a
small community of
under 700 people about
90 miles north of
Phoenix.
Yarnell, pop 649
5pm-Friday, June 28: Fire ignited by lightning near ridgeline
Yarnell, pop 649
Saturday, June 29: Fire grows to about 300 acres
Yarnell, pop 649
Sunday, June 30: At about 1000 acres, hotshot crew deploys
Yarnell, pop 649
Sunday PM, June 30: Extreme behavior, grows to 8k acres
Yarnell, pop 649
July 2 satellite image
Worst Wildland Firefighter Loss in 81y (1933)
Storm Potential ID’d but Threat Unrecognized
U.S. Acreage Burned ~ 50% of Normal in ‘13
8
July/Aug. – Weird and Wet
7-day loop of 500mb HGHT and Accumulating 24h PRECIP
A Month of Accumulating 24h PRECIP from July 18 - Aug. 17
Daily Rainfall Records* from July 18 - Aug. 17
Over 100 daily records broken by more than 2”/24h
Difference from prior record (inches)
* From preliminary NCDC data
Only stations with 75+ year record used. Only records >= 0.10” plotted.
Extreme Rainfall from July 18 - Aug. 17
10 states with 6 or more inches of rain in 24h*
AL, AR, KS, MO, NJ, NC, OK, PA, SC, TN
Difference from prior record (inches)
From preliminary NCDC data
* From CoCoRaHS Data
Gainesville, FL, 7/31/2013
Near Philadelphia, 7/28/2013
Very Unusual Low Heads West
Droughts to Floods in Great Plains
I44 Jerome, MO, 8/7/2013
Michael Pearce / The Wichita Eagle, 7/31/2013
Hundreds of Rainfall Records
9
Sep. 12-14 – Colorado Floods
IR Loop 20 UTC – 15 UTC, Sep. 11-12, 2013
Precipitable Water Anomaly for Sep. 13, 2013 (% of normal)
A Year’s Worth of Rainfall in 2-3 Days!
Flooding in Big Thompson Worst than ‘76
8 Dead, Billions in Damage
10
To be continued…
Thanks for the 2013 Memories!