DAINAM Securities

DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
DAINAM SECURITIES JOINT
STOCK COMPANY
From 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK FROM 11TO 15/05/2015
Market may continue to
correct.
Investors should continue
watching the market and not
increase weights of stock in
portfolio.
Market is lack of supportive macroeconomics
information. Rather, the signal that candlesticks of 7
and 8/May created a positive gap that need to be
filled mentions a mounting selling pressure. We
expect that VNIndex will retest the 540 point
supporting level.
NEWS REVIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM 04-08/05/2015
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
Oil prices plummet after
reaching 5 month peak.
Copywright @ DNSE
Oil prices plummeted Thursday as concerns
persisted that demand is not strong enough to ease
the supply glut. Oil prices hit 2015 peak on
Wednesday amid the first drawdown in U.S. crude
inventories since January, before settling off its high
as investors and traders moved to take profits on a
multi-week rally. Wednesday's rise came after the
U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude
stockpiles fell 3.9 million barrels last week, the first
drop in four months. The drawback was more than
double that projected by industry group American
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
Petroleum Institute. A Reuter’s poll of analysts had
estimated U.S. crude stocks to rise last week for a
record 17th week in a row. On 07/05, sweet crude
for June delivery moved down 1.99 U.S. dollars to
settle at 58.94 dollars a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange. In London, Brent North Sea
crude for June delivery, the global benchmark, lost
2.23 dollars to close at 65. 54 dollars a barrel.
Table 1: Oil price from04to08/05/2015
Source: Nasdaq.com
It’s hard to imagine a better
situation for the Russian
economy (CNBC)
Copywright @ DNSE
The Russian economy is recovering after the crisis
thanks to a range of factors, and it is difficult to
imagine a better situation:Interest rates have
decreased, oil prices are moving towards a positive
trend and tensions with neighboring Ukraine are
easing. Russia could not dream of a better possible
combination to recover its economy, writes CNBC.
Joseph Dayan, head of markets at BCS Financial,
commenting on the situation on the Russian
markets for CNBC, noted the ruble’s growth and
stated that he thought that it was linked to a
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
positive rally in oil prices.Also, Russia Central Bank
earlier lowered key interest rates to 12.5%, amid a
recovery of the Russian ruble, indicating that
inflation in the country has already peaked. Thus,
CNBC maintains that there are clear signs of
stabilization for this country.
Euro nations losing patience
with Greece
Copywright @ DNSE
Euro zone leaders will tell Greece that time and
patience are running out for its leftist-led
government to implement agreed reforms to avert
looming cash crunch that could force it out of the
single currency.Greece has been kept from
bankruptcy by two international bailouts but now
risks running out of money within weeks if it does
not receive more funds.Greek banks reported the
largest deposit withdrawals in a month, a sign
savers are worried about the outlook for the
country's finances and institutions. Two EU/IMF
bailouts totaling €240 billion have kept Greece
from bankruptcy since 2010 but its economy has
shrunk by 25%, partly due to austerity measures
imposed by the lenders. It risks running out of cash
without more aid or permission to issue more
short-term debt.
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
DOMESTIC NEWS
Stock market highlights
Last week experienced decrease in points of both
exchanges, especially the first day after holiday,
when Vn-Index lost more than 17 points, the
highest level since beginning of 2015. Over the
week, Vn-Index decreased by 2%, from 565.8
points to 554.5 points, while HNX-Index fell by
2.77% from 82.58 to 80.29 points only. Liquidity
showed little improvements on HOSE while
decreased slightly on HNX. On HOSE, there were
85.5 million stocks traded, equivalent to 1.25
trillion, increased by 18.33% in volume and 3.85%
in value. Mean while, liquidity on HNX was 41
million units, equivalent to 454 billion, fell slightly
by 0.14% in volume and 11.96% in value compared
to last week performance.
Retail fuel prices increase
The domestic retail prices of oil and petroleum
went up at 9pm of May 5 in the wake of increasing
global fuel prices. Following a joint decision issued
by the Ministries of Industry and Trade and
Finance, petrol and oil retailers have increased the
price of Ron92 and Ron95 by nearly 2,000 VND to
19,200 VND per litre. While the prices of diesel and
mazut remain unchanged, kerosene has become
cheaper by 258 VND per litre. The two ministries
also emphasized that the Tuesday price increases
had been carefully calculated, so they would not
greatly affect local businesses and consumers.
State Bank raises inter-bank
VND/USD rate by 1 percent
The State Bank of Vietnam raised the inter-bank
average exchange rate between the VND and USD
by 1 percent early on May 7, from 21,458VND to
21,673VND per one USD.Banks may set their rate
within a range of +/- 1 percent of the SBV-set interbank average rate.This is the second time this year
the SBV has adjusted the inter-bank rate. The first
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
time was on January 7, also with an increase of 1
percent.The SBV said the adjustment is made to
counter negative impacts from the international
market in line with its policy set for this year,
which aims to keep fluctuation in the exchange rate
at not more than 2 percent.The bank added that
the rising exchange rate over recent days was due
to psychological reasons and market expectations,
while was still within the band set by the central
bank.
Looking ahead, the SBV will continue to apply
synchronous policy tools and measures to keep the
exchange rate and market stable on the new price
level. It will closely monitor the international and
domestic markets as well as macroeconomic and
monetary forecasts in order to make timely
response.
FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITIES
250
200
150
100
HOSE
HNX
50
0
4.05 5.05 6.05 7.05 8.05
-50 20.04 21.04 22.04 23.04 24.04
-100
Net buy 508 billion on HOSE.
Net buy 68.6 billion on HNX.
Copywright @ DNSE
Last week, foreign investors continued to net
buy more than 580 billion on the market,
creating 5 consecutive weeks of net buying. On
HOSE, this group of investors net bought
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
strongly on 04/05 and 06/05, when the market
downed significantly with the value of 211 and
213 billion respectively. Over the week, foreign
investors net bought more than 508 billion.
Most interested stocks this week were HHS,
CTG, VCB, KBS and SSI while most sold stocks
were VIC, HPG, DXG, HAG and TDC. On HNX,
they net bought more than 68 billion and net
sold only on 06/05. Significant net buy stocks
were HUT, SHB, PVS, PLC and SD5 while PVS,
IVS, PVX, VNT and VE9 are sold at highest
volume.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The market sharply fluctuated in the early week between 4 – 8/May and maintained sideway situation
on the rest of trading sessions. Liquidity focused mostly on some stocks that have large influence on
VNIndex and the market and the support level of 540 points was still held tigh.VNIndex experienced a
pull-back after touching lower Bollingerband at 539 points.
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 11/05/2015 to 15/05/2015
However, warning systems now still show an adjustment possibility in the short-term. In particular,
daily candlesticks indicated that selling pressure mounted as bodies of candlesticks reached the MA25
line. Meanwhile, MACD remains under Zero zone; RSI, MFI were 46.09 and 45.05 respectively, showing
that cash flow has no clear direction. Rather, the signal that candlesticks of 7 and 8/May created a
positive gap that need to be filled mentions a mounting selling pressure. We expect that VNIndex will
retest the 540 point supporting level.
For more information, please
contact:
Statement of Disclaimer
-
Phuong My Hang Pham
Department of Analysis
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (04) 7304 7304 (ext201)
DAINAM Securities joint stock
company
Head office: 12A Floor, Centre
buldingHapulico Complex, Number
01 Nguyen HuyTuong, Thanh Xuan,
Ha Noi.
Tel: (04) 7304 7304
Fax: (04) 73 073 073
Website: www.dnse.com.vn
Copywright @ DNSE
Information contained on this report
based on the resources that DNSE
believed as accurate at the time, but
maybe updated, amended or superseded
by subsequent disclosures, or may be
outdated and inaccurate over time. DNSE
does not undertake any obligation to
insure the accuracy, updating of these
information.
- Recommendations on this report are
subjective views of analysts. Investors
using this report as source of reference
take full responsibility for their
investment decisions.
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