1. Investment Case
Transcription
1. Investment Case
Phoenix Solar AG Consolidate the Turnaround! September 2015 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 2 Phoenix Solar is Excellently Positioned in the PV Growth Regions in the USA, Middle East and Southeast Asia Investment Considerations One of the pioneers in the photovoltaic (“PV”) industry and independent international PV system integrator with a strong brand recognition One of the last remaining public EPC companies worldwide USP: Top expertise in optimizing PV power plant design and engineering for highest energy yields Outstanding track record (more than 1 GW of installed or sold modules) international expertise in large scale power plants using both crystalline and thin-film modules International network of subsidiaries with a strategic focus and excellent market position in the growth regions USA, Middle East and Southeast Asia Committed bank financing available until September 2016 (approx. € 110 million) Highly experienced senior management team and a very qualified employee base Phoenix Solar being one of the few winners in the current consolidation process in the PV market offers long-term growth perspectives Phoenix Solar AG – consolidate the turnaround and return to growth 3 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 4 Phoenix Solar: Capabilities Across the Solar Value Chain Origination Select the optimal sites in regards to project execution & production Due Diligence Proposal Comprehensive, competitive and customized proposal Site studies: Geotechnical studies, permitting, environmental, PPA negotiations, Interconnection Studies O&M Skills EPC Skills Project Development Skills Project Finance Engineering & Design Financial advisory work, financial model review and 2 set of eyes for closing documents Plant Design optimization, LCOE analysis: right technology for the right use Construction & Commissioning Operations & Maintenance Strong management capabilities to reduce overall ownership costs Utility like safety standards. Executing on time, on budget and with an excellent attention to detail. 5 Phoenix Solar is a Pioneer of the Photovoltaic Industry Mainly Focussed on the Construction of Power Plants The predominant business model is „EPC“ of photovoltaic power plants – both, roof-top and green-field. Customers Retail, commercial and institutional investors, utilities Operations Sales Engineering Procurement Construction Operation & Maintenance (intl.) Cash Flows out: personnell and materials Suppliers Diverse local sales agents in: progressional milestone payments in: long term contracts monthly/annual fees Manufacturer independent: always best price-performance ratio for customer 6 Our Offering: Excellence in EPC Turn Key Development & EPC Phase Range of Services Consulting Engineering Project Management Site assessment Energy production modeling Economic and financial consulting System planning and layout Technical plant design Engineering Final Product Turn Key PV Solar Power Plants Power Range: 1 - 75 MWp Installed capacity: approx. 600 MWp Utility-Scale Ground-Mounted Systems Procurement and evaluation of system components / equipment Construction management Plant commissioning Commercial & Industrial Roof-Mounted Systems Execution Post-Construction Phase Turn key installation Performance testing Operation management Maintenance & inspection Repair Plant optimization 7 Customer Satisfaction Duke Energy - Fayetteville, NC USA Green Field Power Plant – 32.1 MWp Duke Energy - Key Customer USD 25 bn Revenues Largest Utility in the USA Highest Standards re Quality and Safety Customer Feedback, June 9: Duke is impressed by Phoenix Excited by engineering, team, execution “Phoenix is on a higher level than two of its competitors, carrying out other solar projects on our behalf... “ 8 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 9 The Solar PV Market: Global Installed Capacity Reaches New Peaks Photovoltaic Global Capacity Ongoing strong worldwide growth: installed capacity approaches 200 GWp Biggest base in Europe, Asia is catching up USA on an ambitious growth path China remains a closed shop for foreign vendors Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics 10 Photovoltaic Capacity Continues to Grow Fast– Phoenix Solar Takes its Share of the Market Market Forecasts Installed capacity today at approx. 180 GWp Capacity Added Estimated to reach 54 GWp in 2015 Low Case Estimates until 2019 approx. 400 GWp High Case Estimates until 2019 approx. 540 GWp 11 Solar Increases its Share in Total Energy Production Source: EIA, GWEC, Deutsche Bank Estimates 12 The Solar PV Market: Cost Base Down 78% from 2009 through 2014 LCoE = Levelized Cost of Energy (Total Generating Cost) Solar is competitive now, has almost overtaken cost of wind Coal at $66 - 151/MWp – Natural gas/ CCGT at $61 - 87/MWp Source: Lazard, LCOE Study, 09/2014 13 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 14 Key Profit and Loss Figures First Six Months of FY2015* H1 2015 H1 2014 % Change 39.8 €M 12.1 €M > 100 % > of which Components & Systems 2.9 €M 8.1 €M -84.9 % > of which Power Plants 36.8 €M 3.9 €M >100 % > share of international business 39.6 €M 10.4 €M > 100 % Other operating income 1.7 €M 4.1 €M - 59.4 % Personnel expenses 4.7 €M 4.9 €M - 3.6 % Other operating expenses 3.6 €M 5.3 €M - 31.5 % Depreciation & amortization 0.7 €M 0.8 €M -9.8 % EBIT - 4.6 €M - 3.3 €M - 37.3 % > of which Components & Systems - 1.3 €M 0,3 €M n. a. > of which Power Plants - 3.2 €M - 3.6 €M + 9.9 % - 6.6 €M - 6.3 €M - 5.2 % - 6.3 €M - 6.4 €M + 1.3 % Revenues Net profit / loss for the six months period > of which attributable to shareholders * Group Financial Statements 15 Key Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement Figures First Six Months of FY 2015* 06/30/2015 12/31/14 Non-current assets 17.4 €M 17.9 €M Inventories 2.0 €M 2.1 €M Receivables from long-term construction contracts 26.7 €M 1.0 €M Trade receivables 8.5 €M 10.4 €M Shareholders‘ equity - 8,6 €M -1.6 €M Trade payables 29.7 €M 2.5 €M Non-current financial liabilities 42.4 €M 38.6 €M Total assets 70.8 €M 45.2 €M Equity ratio - 12.1 % -3.5 % 2015 2014 -3.7 €M -5.0 €M Cashflow from operations (Jan – Jun) * Group Financial Statements 16 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 17 How to Consolidate the Turnaround? (1) Cost Structure Significantly Improved Other operating expenses Personnel expenses 40 40 30 - 68 % 30,0 35,9 30 21,1 - 70 % 25,2 20 20 14,6 9,6 10 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 9,4 2015e * 12,3 10 10,9 7,2 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e* *) Forecast for 2015 arithmetically : Q2 expenses x 2 18 How to Consolidate the Turnaround? (2) Improve Sales Performance Free Order Backlog / Order Intake 140 140 131,2 120 120 102,1 100 100 93,2 80 80 60 60 45,5 40 40 41,0 20 20 0 0 Mar 14 Jun 14 Power Plants Sep 14 Dec 14 Components & Systems Mar 15 Jun 15 Order Intake 19 How to Consolidate the Turnaround? (3) Significant Top Line Growth Phoenix Solar Group: Revenue & EBIT Development 2013 - 2015 (in € mn) Forecast 180,0 160 160,0 140 140,0 10 8 6 120,0 3 100,0 2 1 80,0 4 0 60,0 40,0 -2 20,0 -4 - -6 2013 actual 2014 actual Sales Revenue Forecast 2015 Forecast 2015 EBIT Depending on timely construction starts on key projects. 20 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 21 Next Steps at Phoenix Solar AG: Six Point Plan (1) 1 Growth 2015: Dedicated focus on closing profitable projects Gain momentum, in operations, financials and share price Continue to differentiate: 2 High quality EPC and Services … support project financing, O&M, utilize network in favor of our customers Strategic Purchasing 3 Global Supply Chain Function – volume advantages, supplier partnerships 22 Next Steps at Phoenix Solar AG: Six Point Plan (2) 4 Reduce operating cost per Wp for competitive reasons by approx 6-8 % p.a. Forge Strategic Alliances 5 6 Short term: vendors, project developers, sub contractors Mid term: strategic partners Base corporate culture on communication, processes, performance to secure jobs in the long term ULTIMATIVE GOAL Create sustainable value for owners and investors through reliable engineering and execution of high performance power plants 23 2015 Focus on Core Markets in Growth Regions: Competent Teams on Location, Systematic Approach Europe Americas • France • Spain • Greece • USA • Latin America Middle East • • • • Phoenix Solar AG, Germany (Since Nov. 1999) Phoenix Solar SAS, France (Since Sept. 2009) Phoenix Solar Inc., USA Phoenix Solar S.L., Spain (Since Sept. 2010) (Since Apr. 2006) Turkey Jordan Saudi Arabia UAE Phoenix Solar E.P.E., Greece (Since June 2008) Asia/Pacific • • • • Singapore Philippines Thailand Malaysia Phoenix Solar Sdn Bhd, Malaysia (Since Sept. 2010) Phoenix Solar Pte. Ltd., Singapore (Since Dec. 2006) Phoenix Solar L.L.C., Oman (Since Dec. 2009) All 100% owned subsidiaries, except Phoenix Solar Singapore (75%), Phoenix Solar Malaysia (75%) and Phoenix Solar Oman (70%) 24 Project Pipeline 2016 Already Good Demand – Competent EPC are Being Searched for USA: Booming market, utility segment alone is to reach 6 to 8 GWp in 2016 Middle East: growth markets in Jordan and Turkey: we are well positioned and networked Asia/Pacific: Expanding the team, Focus on the Philippines Sales approach: understand the potential, systematically identify attractive projects and close profitable contracts 25 Global Sales Pipeline per Region as of June 30, 2015 Global Sales Pipeline (in MWp, weighted) Share by region (%) 7,5 25,3 43,4 USA: 67% Asia/Pacific: 19% Middle East: 11% Europe: 3% 151,8 USA Asia/Pacific Middle East Europe Total 228,0 MWp, weighted Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 27 Value Chain and Growth Potential Potentials Cube: Systematically Assess Market Trends and Volumes Explore and Seize Opportunities Along Our Strategic Guidelines 1. Market Segments Utility C&I Rooftop Off-Grid 3. Geographies Residential Project development 2. Value Chain EPC O&M IPP Mid- to Long-Term: Explore the fourth growth dimension 4th Dimension Project Financing Hybrid Systems Diesel Replacement Desalination 28 Table of Contents 1. Investment Case 2. Profile and Business Model 3. Market Overview 4. Financial Results Q2 2015 5. How to Consolidate the Turnaround 6. The Next Steps 7. Strategic Outlook 8. Executive Summary 29 Executive Summary Well Positioned – Turnaround Ahead – Long-term Growth Perspectives Global solar market continues to grow fast, great opportunities! Focus on turnaround in 2015; revenue forecast of €140-160 mn with positive EBIT Good working global sales process as growth driver Solid sales pipeline, weighted > 200 MWp; good prospects for 2016 and beyond Market potential is being scrutinized systematically Differentiated service offering, best price/performance: “Excellence in Global EPC” 30 Phoenix Solar AG “Excellence in Global EPC” Appendix Share Price Development ( Feb 28 - Aug 27, 2015) 13,6*14,88 Appendix 33 The Company is Led by a Competent, Skilled, International Management Team with Broad Solar Industry Expertise Tim P. Ryan CEO since 01/2015 Manfred Hochleitner Dr. Murray Cameron CFO since 01/2015 Founder, Member of the Executive Board (2003) Broad experience in growth - oriented With extensive experience in financial Expert in the field of photovoltaics since business development, general affairs, Manfred Hochleitner takes the 1994. Lead a wide range of international management and leadership with responsibility for Controlling, Treasury, renewables & storage projects on behalf international businesses. Expert for the Group Accounting, Tax functions and he of the European Commission & European technical, sales-related, commercial and plays a significant role in Group financing. Parliament. CEO of the European financial aspects of utility-scale and Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) commercial rooftop solar PV systems. 2000 to 2003 and a board member since. Major Responsibilities: Major Responsibilities: Major Responsibilities: Corporate Strategy Finance and administration Global Partner Network Business Development and Sales Internal Audit, Legal and Compliance Global Procurement USA, Asia Pacific, Middle East Regions Europe Region Strategy Projects Corporate Communications Investor Relations Appendix 34 Project Experience: Georgia (USA) Simon Solar Farm: 38.6 MWp Location: Georgia (USA) Commissioned: November 2013 1000 V system IPP (Silicon Ranch) selling power under a PPA to Georgia Power Services Equipment Site due diligence and design Development services Approx. 130,000 JA (305/310W) Solar Modules Interconnection study and application services 40 SMA inverters (SD 750 CP-US) Full EPC services, Operations & Maintenance Unriac fixed tilt racking at 20 degrees Substation design and construction High Voltage Interconnection Energy Data Acquisition System Structured finance moderation Final advisory services for permanent and construction financing Specific Challenges Record rain falls during construction required close schedule management Despite detailed geotechnical studies, rock encountered; creative low cost mitigation by redesigning plant during construction Appendix 35 Project Experience: Thailand (Asia) and Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) Solar Park Solarco: 36.0 MWp Solar Park KAPSARC: 3.55 MWp Location: approx. 2h from Bangkok (Thailand) Location: Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) Connected: November & December 2013 Connected: December 2012 Scope of work Phoenix: Engineering, Procurement, Scope of work Phoenix: Engineering, Procurement, Project management Project management Module technology: Crystalline Module technology: Polycrystalline Rated System power: 36.0 MWp Rated System power: 3.552 MWp Appendix 36 Phoenix Solar Share in Brief International Securities Identification Number (ISIN) DE000A0BVU93 German Securities Identification Number (WKN) A0BVU9 Symbol PS4 Number of shares issued and outstanding 7,372,700 no-par bearer shares Share Capital € 7,372,700 Market Segment Official Market (Deutsche Börse Prime Standard) Trading XETRA, Frankfurt (Prime Standard), Munich (M:access), Stuttgart, Berlin, Dusseldorf, Hamburg, Hannover Industry sector / subsector Industrials / Renewables Financial year ends 31 December Designated Sponsor Oddo Seydler AG Appendix 37 Disclaimer The content of this presentation is solely for information purposes and is not intended to constitute a recommendation for investment or a solicitation to subscribe or an offer to buy or sell securities of the company. Phoenix Solar AG shall undertake no liability whatsoever for any loss in connection with this presentation or the information contained therein. This also applies particularly to any eventual loss in connection with the shares of Phoenix Solar AG. This document contains forward-looking statements on future developments which are based on management’s current assessment. Words such as “anticipate”, “assume”, “believe”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “can/could”, “plan”, “project”, “forecast”, “should”, and similar terms are indicative of such forward-looking statements. Such statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which are mainly outside the sphere of influence of Phoenix Solar AG, but which have an impact on the business activities, the success, the business strategy and the results. These risks and factors of uncertainty include, for instance, climatic change, changes in the state subsidisation of photovoltaics, the introduction of competitor products or technologies of other companies, the development of the planned internationalisation of business activities, fierce competition as well as rapid technological change in the photovoltaic market. If one of these or other factors of uncertainty or risks should occur, or if the assumptions underlying the statements should prove incorrect, the actual results may diverge substantially from the results in these statements or implicit indications. Phoenix Solar AG does not have the intention nor will it undertake any obligation to realise forward-looking statements on an ongoing basis or at a later point in time as this is entirely dependent on circumstances prevailing on the day of their release. In some countries the dissemination of this presentation and the information contained therein may be restricted or prohibited under the law. This presentation is therefore expressly not intended for persons resident in legal systems under which such an offer or solicitation is not permissible, or for persons for whom such an offer or invitation would constitute a breach of the law. Appendix 38 Contact Details Phoenix Solar AG Dr. Joachim Fleing Hirschbergstrasse 4 D-85254 Sulzemoos Germany Phone +49 8135 938-315 Fax +49 8135 938-429 www.phoenixsolar-group.com [email protected] Appendix 39 40