belmont stakes

BELMONT STAKES
WAGERING GUIDE
DAILY LATE-BREAKING ONLINE UPDATES BEGIN JUNE 3
Palace Malice and Mike Smith win 2013 Belmont. ©Horsephotos.com/NTRA
866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)
Fellow Racing Fan,
Welcome to the seventh edition of Xpressbet’s free Belmont Wagering Guide!
We are on the verge of witnessing history in the Belmont Stakes ... again. California Chrome’s
dominating victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes have the racing world poised in
anticipation of just the 12th Triple Crown winner June 7 at Belmont Park.
If you’ll pardon the pun, the Belmont Stakes seldom is a walk in the ‘park.’ At this writing, it appears a
large, solid field of challengers will meet California Chrome, each with designs on derailing his bid for
immortality.
While many racing fans will root for the California-bred star to clear this final hurdle, some will search
for an upset and accompanying boxcar mutuel payoffs. We present this wagering guide to inform and
entertain current and future account holders and to make the 2014 Belmont Stakes one to remember.
Inside this guide you will find just about everything you need to watch and wager on the Belmont like
an expert. And, of course, you can wager on the Belmont Stakes and worldwide Thoroughbred and
harness racing with Xpressbet online, by phone or via mobile device.
If you don’t already have an Xpressbet account, please accept this complimentary guide and act
now to open an account and to earn up to $125 in bonus cash! Complete details are available at
Xpressbet.com.
We’ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race—Analysis, Main
Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. You’ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy
Exotic Wagering Chart and much more.
Plan to return to the Xpressbet web site daily for free updates, beginning Tuesday, June 3. These will
include Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse analysis and revised expert opinions and selections based
on scratches, post positions, weather, etc.
The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2014 Belmont Stakes and look forward
to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future.
Sincerely,
Ron Luniewski
Xpressbet
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National gambling support line 800.522.4700.
BELMONT WAGERING FACTS
By Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com
Below are some interesting and informative wagering tidbits from past Belmont Stakes events.
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS
(Last 10 Years, Odds to $1)
Win Odds
Average: 15.25
High: 38.50 (Da’Tara, 2008)
Low: 1.15 (Afleet Alex, 2005)
Notable: 5 of the last 6 winners were 11-to-1 or more.
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS
(Last 10 Years, $1 Payoffs)
Average: $9,196.63
(Average Odds of Fourth-Place Finishers: 12.70-to-1)
High: $37,026
(Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed-Nehro, 2011)
Low: $121.25
(Rags to Riches-Curlin-Tiago-Hard Spun, 2007)
Notable: 4 of the last 6 Belmont supers paid $5,329 or more.
Place Odds
Average: 6.59
High: 16.20 (Stay Thirsty, 2011)
Low: .35 (Smarty Jones, 2004)
Notable: 9 of last 10 runner-ups were 11-to-1 or less.
Show Odds
Average: 13.33
High: 34.25 (Anak Nakal, 2008-DH)
Low: 1.25 (Mine That Bird, 2009)
Notable: The post-time favorite has finished 3rd twice in the last
5 years.
EXACTA PAYOFFS
(Last 10 Years, $2 Payoff )
Average: $250.76
High: $928.00 (Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty, 2011)
Low: $25.20 (Rags to Riches-Curlin, 2007)
Notable: 5 of the last 6 exactas have paid $121 or more.
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS
(Last 10 Years, $1 Payoff )
Average: $898.23
High: $4,134.00
(Ruler On Ice-Stay Thirsty-Brilliant Speed, 2011)
Low: $218 (Jazil-Bluegrass Cat-Sunriver, 2006)
Notable: 4 of the last 5 trifectas have paid $465.50 or less.
HIGHEST-PRICED RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA
(Last 10 Years, Odds to $1)
Year
Odds
Horse
Fin.
2008
38.50
Da’Tara
1st
2004
36.00
Birdstone
1st
2008
34.25
Anak Nakal
3rd
SHORTEST-PRICED BELMONT FAVORITES
(Last 10 Years, Odds to $1)
Year
Odds
Horse
Fin.
2008
.30
Big Brown
dnf
2004
.35
Smarty Jones
2nd
2007
1.10
Curlin
2nd
2005 1.15
Afleet Alex
1st
2009
1.25
Mine That Bird 3rd
ODDS-ON BELMONT FAVORITES
(Since 1940)
Total odds-on favorites: 31
Winning odds-on favorites: 12
% of Winning odds-on favorites: 38.7%
Last odds-on favorite to compete:
Big Brown (.30-to-1, 2008)
Last odds-on favorite to win:
Affirmed (.60-to-1, 1978)
EXPERT SELECTION GRID
Expert
Bob Neumeier
Mike Battaglia
Jeff Siegel
Jon White
Dick Jerardi
Steve Byk
(NBC Sports)
(NBC Sports)
(HRTV)
(Santa Anita)
(Phila. Daily News)
(SiriusXM Radio)
First
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
California Chrome
California Chrome
California Chrome
California Chrome
Second
California Chrome
California Chrome
Tonalist
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
Commissioner
Third
Wicked Strong
Ride On Curlin
Commanding Curve
Wicked Strong
Ride on Curlin
Ride On Curlin
Fourth
Ride On Curlin
Commanding Curve
Wicked Strong
Ride On Curlin
Tonalist
Wicked Strong
BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3
Meet The 2014 Belmont Contenders
by Johnny D Xpressbet.com
California Chrome
Ride On Curlin
The Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner could be headed
A troubled seventh in the Kentucky Derby at over 17-1
toward racing immortality in the Belmont Stakes. If successful, odds, Ride On Curlin gave California Chrome Preakness
he will join merely 11 previous Thoroughbreds as winners
backers pause when he loomed ominously briefly in the
of racing’s ultimate prize -- the Triple Crown. If California
Pimlico stretch. His threat proved toothless in the final
Chrome and jockey Victor Espinoza perform as they did
sixteenth of a mile, as ‘Chrome drew clear on his way to
in earning the first two jewels of the Crown, a Belmont
victory. Like California Chrome, Ride on Curlin has had
triumph is a mere formality. ‘Chrome
plenty of experience. He’s started 11
times, with two wins, three seconds and
has the right style—relaxed speed to
BELMONT LAST TIMES...
be close to any type of early pace, a
four thirds. Clearly, he’s consistent, but
he hasn’t yet proven that he can win at
wicked turn of foot to take command
The Last …
nearing the stretch, and enough
a graded-stakes level. His tallies came
Kentucky Derby Winner to Win:
stamina to last through the finish. But,
in an Ellis Park maiden race and in an
Thunder Gulch (1995)
Oaklawn Park allowance test. Coming
as we know, funny things happen in
Preakness
Winner
to
Win:
the Belmont Stakes. Whether it’s the
out of the Kentucky Derby, he was fit; he
Afleet Alex (2005)
had no Preakness traffic issues and he
track composition (they don’t call it
Big Sandy for nothing), the mile and
possessed a full head of steam. So, with
Kentucky Derby Runner-Up to Win:
all that in his favor, if he still wasn’t able
one-half distance, the accumulated
Empire Maker (2003)
rigors of the Triple Crown series, a group
to overhaul California Chrome in the
Preakness, what’s to suggest he’s going
of fresh horses who have skipped the
Preakness Runner-Up to Win:
to be able to do it going farther?
Derby, Preakness or both, something
Victory Gallop (1998)
repeatedly has gone wrong for Triple
Preakness Show Horse to Win:
Crown candidates in the Belmont since
Tonalist
Editor’s Note (1996)
Affirmed outdueled Alydar in 1978.
If you’re looking for a possible upset
candidate in the Belmont Stakes,
Horse to Lay-Off Since Derby to Win:
Commanding Curve
Tonalist just might be your horse.
Palace Malice (2013)
At nearly 38-1 odds, few gave this colt
He’s a lightly raced colt with just
New Triple Crown Face to Win:
much of a chance to win the Kentucky
four starts, including two wins, a
Ruler On Ice (2011)
Derby, and yet he closed well to finish a
second and a fourth in his first out.
non-threatening second to California
Christophe Clement, a conditioner
Prepped Last at Belmont to Win:
Chrome. ‘Curve’s connections opted
who traditionally goes slowly with his
Drosselmeyer (2010)
to skip the Preakness—in hindsight
stock, trains Tonalist, so there might be
Gelding to Win:
a prudent decision—to concentrate
more development to come. Last out,
Ruler On Ice (2011)
on winning the Belmont Stakes. On
Tonalist dominated a decent field in
paper, except for his Derby finish,
the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park.
Commanding Curve has little to
Granted, that victory was accomplished
suggest he can upset the applecart in the Belmont Stakes. He over a sloppy, sealed track, so it should be served with a grain
certainly ought to relish the mile and one-half distance and
of salt. However, the manner in which Tonalist powered
that alone makes him interesting, but he has just one career
home suggests he’s a very serious 3-year-old. He broke his
win to his credit—a maiden score at Churchill Downs. What
maiden second out by four lengths over 11 foes going a mile
Commanding Curve does have in his corner is that he’s
and one-eighth at Gulfstream. He then finished second to the
an improving 3-year-old colt. The shape of the Belmont race
highly regarded Constitution in a Gulfstream allowance test.
usually is different than the Kentucky Derby. There shouldn’t
Behind Tonalist that afternoon were Mexikoma and Wood
be as hot an early pace to set up Commanding Curve’s
winner and Derby fourth-place finisher Wicked Strong!
steady, late run. Therefore, he’ll really need to kick it in to
Sometimes the sun is brighter rising than it is setting.
catch whichever horse makes the lead in mid-stretch.
BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3
A Cat-And-Mouse Game
by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: With only four possible front-runners (CALIFORNIA CHROME,
TONALIST, SAMRAAT and, if he goes, SOCIAL INCLUSION), who wants the
lead? How fast/slow will they go? One of Joel Rosario’s (TONALIST) favorite
tactics is to dictate the early pace in distance races and play catch-me-if-youcan. Victor Espinoza (CALIFORNIA CHROME) will be acutely aware of such
strategy, or could take the lead himself if the others back off the early throttle. A
‘slowish’ pace appears to be in the offing – with a classic cat-and-mouse game
between Rosario and Espinoza set to unfold. That scenario will not benefit
closers RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMANDING CURVE and WICKED STRONG.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME vs. TONALIST. Period.
Please hold your calls; we have a winner. Whatever the outcome, a tip of the cap
goes to CALIFORNIA CHROME, Art Sherman and the owners for a glorious
ride.
VALUE PLAYS: For obvious reasons, ‘Chromies will bet him through the
roof, thus opening the door for price shoppers. COMMANDING CURVE and
RIDE ON CURLIN also may be reasonably overbet, as the public does not
grasp the counter-intuitive disadvantage of closers going long (especially vs. a
slow pace). WICKED STRONG should be looked at closely in the 8-1 or 10-1
range. TONALIST at 4-1 or higher also fits the bill.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $40 Exacta Part-Wheel: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME and
WICKED STRONG ($80)
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME and
TONALIST ($20)
Year
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Recent Belmont Winner Preps
Winner
Fin.
Race
Palace Malice
12th
Kentucky Derby
Union Rags
7th
Kentucky Derby
Ruler On Ice
2nd
Federico Tesio
Drosselmeyer
2nd
Dwyer
Summer Bird
6th
Kentucky Derby
Da’Tara
2nd
Barbaro
Rags to Riches
1st
Kentucky Oaks
Jazil
4th
Kentucky Derby
Afleet Alex
1st
Preakness
Track
Churchill
Churchill
Pimlico
Belmont
Churchill
Pimlico
Churchill
Churchill
Pimlico
PICKS
1. TONALIST
3. WICKED STRONG
2. CALIFORNIA CHROME
4. RIDE ON CURLIN
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
Stats & Trends:
DERBY WINNERS IN BELMONT
(Last 10 Years)
Year
Horse
Fin.
2013 Orb
3rd
2012 did not compete
2011 Animal Kingdom
6th
2010 did not compete
2009 Mine That Bird
3rd
2008 Big Brown
dnf
2007 did not compete
2006 did not compete
2005 Giacomo
7th
2004 Smarty Jones
2nd
2003 Funny Cide
3rd
2002 War Emblem
8th
Last Derby winner to win Belmont:
Thunder Gulch, 1995
PREAKNESS WINNERS IN BELMONT
(Last 10 Years)
Year
Horse
Fin.
2013 Oxbow
2nd
2012 did not compete
2011 Shackleford
5th
2010 did not compete
2009 did not compete
2008 Big Brown
dnf
2007 Curlin
2nd
2006 did not compete
2005 Afleet Alex
1st
2004 Smarty Jones
2nd
2003 Funny Cide
3rd
Know This:
Double-Digit Doings
The last 5 Belmont Stakes each have had 10
or more starters, averaging 11.8 runners.
Wired
Since Swale in 1984, the only wire-to-wire
Belmont winner has been Da’Tara in 2008.
EXOTIC WAGERING CHART
Belmont Stakes exotic wagers usually produce hefty payoffs.
Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack.
EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
2 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $2
3 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
5 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
6 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
7 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
8 horse box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All
6 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
7 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
8 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
9 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
10 horse field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
$5
$6
$7
$8
$9
TRIFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $20
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
(Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
SUPERFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $360
TRIFECTA BOX: ($1 Wager)
3 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
4 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
5 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
6 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
7 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
8 Horse Box . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
SUPERFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $336
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $504
(Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1)
TRIFECTA WHEELS: ($1 Wager)
One Horse with All with All
(Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $30
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $42
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $56
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $72
One Horse with Two Horses with All with All
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $40
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $84
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $112
(Example: 1/ 2/ All/ All or 2/ 1/ All/ All or 1/ All/ All/ 2 or 2/ All/ All/ 1
or All/ All/ 1/ 2 or All/ All/ 2/ 1)
One Horse with Two Horses with All
(Example: 1/2/All or 2/1/All or 1/All/2 or 2/a
All ll/1 or All/1/2 or All/2/1)
7 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $10
8 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $12
9 Horse Field. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $14
10 Horse Field . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $16
SUPERFECTA KEYS: ($1 Wager)
1 Horse with 3 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $6
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4)
1 Horse with 4 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $24
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5)
1 Horse with 5 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $60
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6)
1 Horse with 6 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $120
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
1 Horse with 7 others . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $210
(Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8)
BELMONT WAGERING GUIDE UPDATES
AVAILABLE ONLINE DAILY BEGINNING TUESDAY, JUNE 3
’Strong’ Upset Possibility
by Mike Battaglia NBC Sports Reporter
ANALYSIS: CALIFORNIA CHROME will be a strong favorite. The distance
is a big question mark, but that applies to all the other runners as well. Victor
Espinoza will have to be patient and not get caught up with any of the early
speed – a premature move usually is costly in the Belmont. If CALIFORNIA
CHROME has the lead turning for home, he should be tough to catch. But the
mile and one-half may be the great equalizer and he could be vulnerable at
short odds.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME has proven that he is the
best 3-year-old in the country. Now he has to prove that he can negotiate the
Belmont distance. He definitely is not a one-dimensional horse, and he figures
to be in good position right behind the early leaders in a Belmont that should
have an honest pace. SOCIAL INCLUSION looks like the horse that could
challenge him early, but I don’t see him sticking around at the end. The main
threats to ‘CHROME’s Triple Crown quest figure to come from closers RIDE ON
CURLIN, WICKED STRONG and COMMANDING CURVE.
VALUE PLAYS: WICKED STRONG has a couple of things going for him.
He is a closer with the pedigree to get the distance, and he already has won a
race over the Belmont surface. He was hung wide in the Derby and should be
fresh and ready to go in the Belmont. RIDE ON CURLIN and COMMANDING
CURVE both ran well behind the favorite in the Preakness and Derby,
respectively, and should figure in the gimmicks.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $20 Exacta Part-Wheel: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME,
RIDE ON CURLIN and COMMANDING CURVE ($60)
• $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME, RIDE ON CURLIN and
COMMANDING CURVE over WICKED STRONG ($30)
• $10 Trifecta: WICKED STRONG over CALIFORNIA CHROME over
RIDE ON CURLIN ($10)
New Kids on the Block
Since 2007, four Belmont winners made their first Triple Crown journeys winning
ones: the filly Rags to Riches in 2007, Da’ Tara in 2008, Drosselmeyer in 2010 and
Ruler on Ice in 2011.
Stats & Trends:
BELMONT WINNERS IN TC RACES
(Since 2000)
Year
Horse
TC Race
2013 Palace Malice
Derby
2012 Union Rags
Derby
2011 Ruler On Ice
none
2010 Drosselmeyer
none
2009 Summer Bird
Derby
2008 Da’ Tara
none
2007 Rags to Riches none
2006 Jazil
Derby
2005 Afleet Alex
Derby, Preakness
2004 Birdstone
Derby
2003 Empire Maker
Derby
2002 Sarava
none
2001 Point Given
Derby, Preakness
2000 Commendable Derby
DERBY, PREAKNESS TOP 4 IN BELMONT
(Since 2000)
Year
Horse
Fin.
2013 Orb
3rd
2011 Shackleford
5th
2011 Animal Kingdom
6th
2009 Mine That Bird
3rd
2008 Big Brown
dnf
2007 Curlin
2nd
2007 Hard Spun
4th
2005 Afleet Alex
1st
2005 Giacomo
7th
2004 Smarty Jones
2nd
2003 Funny Cide
3rd
2002 War Emblem
8th
2002 Proud Citizen
5th
2000 Impeachment
5th
Know This:
Looked Past Preakness
Since 2000, just 2 of the last 14 Belmont
winners participated in the Preakness: Point
Given (2001) and Afleet Alex (2005).
PICKS
1. WICKED STRONG
2. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. RIDE ON CURLIN
4. COMMANDING CURVE
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
The End of the Drought
by Jeff Siegel HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: It’s been 36 years since racing has celebrated a Triple Crown
winner. A strong argument can be made that there have been a number of
better colts than CALIFORNIA CHROME – Spectacular Bid and Smarty Jones
among them – that have been denied immortality in the Belmont Stakes. So no
matter how dominant the California-bred colt appears to be on paper, there’s
always the fear that something unforeseen will occur. Bad trip, bad ride, bad
weather, late scratch; you name it, it’s happened. So why should we expect the
drought to end in 2014? Because it simply has to, since there’s a real possibility
that 2014 will be the final year we see the Triple Crown’s three races-in-fiveweek’s schedule preserved as it’s been for so many decades.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME registered his first
official workout on March 10, 2013. Since then (64 weeks), the Art Shermantrained colt has never gone more than 14 days without at least one race or one
recorded drill. In an era where many of the sport’s best racehorses are made
of glass, soundness – and the ability to consistently compete – is a trait that
almost always is overlooked when judging greatness. In fact, durability may be
CALIFORNIA CHROME’s most admirable attribute and the reason he is the
one and only Triple Crown contender in the field.
VALUE PLAYS: No horse that already has faced (and been beaten by)
CALIFORNIA CHROME is cause for concern. TONALIST was a visually
impressive and highly rated winner of the Peter Pan Stakes, and, in doing so,
showed the ability to handle an off track, a factor that might come into play on
race day. His two Florida races were legit and the form has held. He represents
stranger danger, similar to the type of threat Coastal posed to Spectacular Bid
35 years ago. You can look it up and see how that turned out.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $80 Exacta: CALIFORNIA CHROME over TONALIST ($80)
• $20 Exacta: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME ($20)
Online Updates Begin June 3
Make sure to top-off your knowledge by accessing Xpressbet’s Belmont
Wagering Guide Online Updates beginning June 3. Updates are free and include
revised expert analysis and selections based on weather, post positions, etc, and
Johnny D’s in-depth, horse-by-horse Belmont analysis.
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. COMMANDING CURVE
2. TONALIST
4. WICKED STRONG
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
Stats & Trends:
ALL 3 TC RACES & WON BELMONT
(Since 1990)
Year
Horse
2005 Afleet Alex
2001 Point Given
1998 Victory Gallop
1996 Editor’s Note
1995 Thunder Gulch
1994 Tabasco Cat
1991 Hansel
DERBY, NO PREAKNESS, WON BELMONT
(Since 2000)
Year
Horse
2013
Palace Malice
2012
Union Rags
2009
Summer Bird
2006
Jazil
2004
Birdstone
2003
Empire Maker
2000
Commendable
2ND DERBY, SKIPPED PREAKNESS
(Last 20 Years)
Year
Horse
Fin
Odds
2013 Golden Soul
9th
11-1
2011 Nehro
4th
9-2
2010 Ice Box
8th
9-5*
2006 Bluegrass Cat 2nd
9-2
2003 Empire Maker 1st
2-1
2001 Invisible Ink
5th
10-1
2000 Aptitude
2nd
8-5*
1994 Strodes Creek 3rd
6-5*
*Favorite
Know This:
Derby Duo Rarely Repeats
The Kentucky Derby exacta has not been
repeated in the Belmont Stakes since the
great Affirmed-Alydar rivalry of 1978.
Good Chance For A Sweep
by Jon White Santa Anita & HRTV Analyst
ANALYSIS: The way I see it, CALIFORNIA CHROME has a pretty good
chance to win the Belmont and end the long Triple Crown drought. Yes,
running in three major races at three different tracks in a five-week period is a
difficult assignment. Since Affirmed, such outstanding horses as Spectacular
Bid, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones and Big Brown failed to win the
Belmont with the Triple Crown on the line. But I think CALIFORNIA CHROME
just might have what it takes to become the first Triple Crown winner since
Affirmed in 1978. CALIFORNIA CHROME has demonstrated time after time
that he is able to make a perfect trip happen a la Cigar in his prime. He is
amenable to being rated, which is extremely important due to the testing mile
and one-half distance of the Belmont. Sometimes we have seen a bad ride in the
Belmont cost a horse the Triple Crown. For instance, Real Quiet lost the Belmont
and the Triple Crown by a nose in 1998 when Kent Desormeaux pulled the
trigger way too early. I do not expect Victor Espinoza to do something like that
with CALIFORNIA CHROME.
MAIN CONTENDERS: In addition to CALIFORNIA CHROME, the main
contenders are Peter Pan winner TONALIST, Wood Memorial winner WICKED
STRONG, Preakness runner-up RIDE ON CURLIN and Kentucky Derby runnerup COMMANDING CURVE. TONALIST, I think, is especially scary.
VALUE PLAYS: Considering CALIFORNIA CHROME will be a short price,
the value play in the race is TONALIST. In the Peter Pan, TONALIST rushed up
early after he did not break alertly, but he still drew away in the stretch to win
by four lengths. I have tremendous respect for TONALIST’S trainer, Christophe
Clement. If CALIFORNIA CHROME doesn’t win, I will be surprised if it isn’t
TONALIST.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $30 Win: CALIFORNIA CHROME ($30)
• $20 Win: TONALIST ($20)
• $26 Exacta: TONALIST over CALIFORNIA CHROME ($26)
• $2 Exacta Box: COMMANDING CURVE, RIDE ON CURLIN, TONALIST and
WICKED STRONG ($24)
Fan Favorites
Out of 145 previous Belmont Stakes, 61 have been won by the betting favorite.
That’s a 42% win rate.
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. WICKED STRONG
2. TONALIST
4. RIDE ON CURLIN
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
Stats & Trends:
DERBY 1-2 FINISHERS IN BELMONT
(Since 1994)
Year
Derby 1-2 Finish
Fin
2013 Orb-Golden Soul
3rd/9th
2011 Animal Kingdom/Nehro
6th/4th
2003 Funny Cide/Empire Maker 3rd/1st
2002 War Emblem/Proud Citizen 8th/5th
2001 Monarchos/Invisible Ink
3rd/5th
1999 Charismatic/Menifee
3rd/8th
1998 Real Quiet/Victory Gallop 2nd/1st
1994 Go For Gin/Strodes Creek 2nd/3rd
WINNING BELMONT POST POSITIONS
(Since 1905)
Post Wins
Post Wins
8
6
1
23
9
4
2
11
10
2
3
15
11
2
4
10
12
1
5
14
13
0
6
7
14
0
7
12
ACTIVE JOCKEYS TO WIN BELMONT
Year
Jockey
Horse
2013 Mike Smith
Palace Malice
2012 John Velazquez
Union Rags
2011 Jose Valdivia, Jr.
Ruler On Ice
2010 Mike Smith
Drosselmeyer
2009 Kent Desormeaux Summer Bird
2008 Alan Garcia
Da’Tara
2007 John Velazquez
Rags to Riches
2006 Fernando Jara
Jazil
2005 Jeremy Rose
Afleet Alex
2004 Edgar Prado
Birdstone
2002 Edgar Prado
Sarava
2001 Gary Stevens
Point Given
1998 Gary Stevens
Victory Gallop
1995 Gary Stevens
Thunder Gulch
California ’Crowned’
by Dick Jerardi Philadelphia Daily News Columnist
ANALYSIS: The big question is: Can CALIFORNIA CHROME, after running
the Kentucky Derby distance, still run away from the other horses in the final
quarter mile at Belmont? If the Derby and Preakness winner still has that burst,
the Triple Crown will be won for the first time in 36 years. If not, there are a
myriad of possibilities. ‘CC’ has the same tactical edge he has had in all his races
– the early speed to get position. That may be even more pronounced in a race
without much speed. The fractions should not be taxing, and CALIFORNIA
CHROME has proven adaptable to any kind of pace.
MAIN CONTENDERS: CALIFORNIA CHROME has won six consecutive
stakes by a combined 27 1/2 lengths, all since being united with jockey Victor
Espinoza. If he runs the same race he has been running, he wins again. Late
Derby closers like COMMANDING CURVE rarely duplicate that form in the
Belmont, as it often is an illusion in Louisville when horses are going backward
so quickly. However, I was sitting outside at the eighth pole when the ‘other
CC’ came by me, and he was absolutely flying. RIDE ON CURLIN made a giant
run in the Preakness, but just happened to be chasing a star. When you watch
video of WICKED STRONG, it is clear he is much better on a straightaway
than a turn. Belmont Park, with its sweeping turns, really should suit this colt’s
style perfectly. The Wood Memorial winner is an upset threat. TONALIST was
brilliant in his Peter Pan win.
VALUE PLAYS: TONALIST may be this good, and most of the money
is going to be bet on the two horses that ran in the Derby and Preakness
(CALIFORNIA CHROME and RIDE ON CURLIN) as well as those Derby horses
which have gotten that critical, five-week layoff. Eight of the last 14 Belmont
winners have had that layoff.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $50 Exacta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME over WICKED STRONG and
RIDE ON CURLIN ($100)
Oldest Triple Crown Event
The Belmont Stakes, first run in 1867, is the oldest Triple Crown event. It
predates the Preakness by six years and the Kentucky Derby by eight.
Longshot Run
5 of the last 6 Belmont winners have had odds of at least 11-1, averaging a
$36.90 return since 2008.
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. RIDE ON CURLIN
2. WICKED STRONG
4. TONALIST
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
Stats & Trends:
ODDS-ON BELMONT BUSTS
Last 7 Odds-On Choices Have Lost
Year
Horse
Fin.
Odds
2008 Big Brown
dnf
1-5
2004 Smarty Jones
2nd
1-5
1998 Real Quiet
2nd
4-5
1989 Sunday Silence 2nd
4-5
1987 Alysheba
4th
4-5
1981 Pleasant Colony 3rd
4-5
1979 Spectacular Bid 3rd
1-5
WHERE WINNERS WERE BRED
Wins
State/Country
96
Kentucky
11
Virginia
7
New Jersey
6
England
5
Florida
3
New York,
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
2
California
Maryland
Texas
Ireland
1
Canada
TRIPLE CROWN WINNER ODDS
(Odds to $1)
Year
Horse
Odds
1978
Affirmed
.60
1977
Seattle Slew
.40
1973
Secretariat
.10
1948
Citation
.20
1946
Assault
1.40
1943
Count Fleet
.05
1941
Whirlaway
.25
1937
War Admiral
.80
1935
Omaha
.90
1930
Gallant Fox
1.60
1919
Sir Barton
.40
Brink of Immortality ... Again
by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host
ANALYSIS: Once again we assemble at Belmont Park, America’s most
imposing oval, hopeful that a 3-year-old Thoroughbred can end the prolonged
drought between Triple Crown winners. Already having met and exceeded
expectations in Louisville and Baltimore, CALIFORNIA CHROME stands
on the same brink of immortality that has challenged, and bested, 12 DerbyPreakness winners since 1979. Produced out of seemingly mundane bloodstock,
the CA-bred son of Lucky Pulpit has been fashioned into a tactical weapon by
Art Sherman, who has brought 60+ years of horsemanship along with him. In
harmony with pilot Victor Espinoza, CALIFORNIA CHROME appears capable
of producing multiple bursts of speed as needed – and possibly has saved a
requisite, strong finish for the most opportune moment.
MAIN CONTENDERS: If up to the demands of the 12-furlong distance,
CALIFORNIA CHROME will get the kind of up-close, stalking trip that fairs
well in the Test of the Champion. RIDE ON CURLIN thoroughly distinguished
himself in the Preakness, is thriving for Billy Gowan and may be the only
sophomore besides the favorite to start in all three Crown events. Derby fourth
WICKED STRONG and Rajiv Maragh did what they could from the difficult
No. 20 post, and offer the grinder’s profile that gets major shares. TONALIST is
receiving the same upset glare that Freedom Child saw out of the Peter Pan last
year before running a pop-and-stop 13th.
VALUE PLAYS: Is Todd Pletcher trainee COMMISSIONER a live outsider?
The WinStar homebred is arguably the best-bred participant for the Belmont
trip, sired by 1992 winner A.P. Indy and out of a mare by 1997 winner Touch
Gold. COMMISSIONER wasn’t catching TONALIST in the sealed slop Peter
Pan, but has the steady, stayer’s style that plays well in this event without fail.
He’ll be no better than the 7th choice, which makes him a $30-$40 horse. And
for all the bashing Pletcher receives about his Derby record, give him an equal
amount of praise for his 13: 2-3-3 mark in this race since 2006.
WAGERING STRATEGIES ($100):
• $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel: CALIFORNIA CHROME with WICKED STRONG,
RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMISSIONER with WICKED STRONG,
RIDE ON CURLIN, COMMISSIONER, TONALIST, COMMANDING CURVE
and MATUSZAK ($75)
• $5 Exacta Part-Wheel: COMMISSIONER over CALIFORNIA CHROME,
WICKED STRONG, RIDE ON CURLIN, TONALIST and
COMMANDING CURVE ($25)
PICKS
1. CALIFORNIA CHROME
3. RIDE ON CURLIN
2. COMMISSIONER
4. WICKED STRONG
Daily Late-Breaking Online Updates Begin June 3
Stats & Trends:
FASTEST BELMONT FINAL TIMES
Year
Time
Horse
1973 2:24
Secretariat
1989 2:26
Easy Goer
1992
A.P. Indy
2001 2:26-2/5 Point Given
1988
Risen Star
1978 2:26-4/5 Affirmed
BELMONT WINNERS SINCE AFFIRMED
(Last 35 Years)
14 newcomers to Triple Crown trail
11 veterans of both Derby and Preakness
9 Derby runners who skipped Preakness
(2 had middle prep)
1 Preakness runner who skipped Derby
LARGEST BELMONT CROWDS
Year
Attendance
Winner
2004
120,139
Birdstone
2002
103,222
Sarava
2003
101,864
Empire Maker
2008
94,476
Da’ Tara
1999
85,818
Lemon Drop Kid
After TC candidate I’ll Have Another scratched:
2012
85,811
Union Rags
Largest without Triple Crown at stake:
2001
73,857
Point Given
Know This:
Unlucky Above 7
No horse has ever won the Triple Crown
when facing more than 7 rivals in the
Belmont Stakes.
Battle of the Bulge
No Triple Crown winner has faced more
than 32 total rivals in the 3-race series.
California Chrome already has faced 27
through the Derby (18) and Preakness (9).